Week 8 picks

It's Saturday, which means it's time for the greatest exercise in futility that can be performed in this 2010 season; weekly Picks. Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers (in London, England): I'm not taking the 49ers just because I support them. It's not even because I'm gonna be there cheering. And it has nothing to do with the fact that I paid approximately $179 just for my ticket and coach travel (the programs are about $16 at Wembley) and thus really want to see the 49ers win so I don't feel like I wasted my money. It's actually because of Troy Smith. Yes, Troy Smith. I remember watching Smith in the pre-season and being quite impressed. Then just the other day I saw an interview with Smith and instead of seeing a man who looked rather nervous about what was to come, he instead looked confident. I got the distinct impression that this was a man who was looking forward to the coming opportunity he'd been given, as if he'd been preparing his whole life for it. It may seem odd and it's difficult to describe, but he even sounded like a leader. He sounded like a man you could trust with your football team. Either that or I've just gone into a state of extreme shock looking at how bad the 49ers record is and my brain is desperately trying to block out any obvious negative signs and instead trying to make everything seem wonderful and magic. Either way, I'm taking the 49ers. 49ers win. Jacksonville Jaguars @ Dallas Cowboys: Hmm (yep, one of them already). I hate the Cowboys in this game, but unfortunately I also hate the Jaguars. Without Tony Romo the Cowboys are... just as bad as they were with Tony Romo. At least the Jaguars have their starting QB David Garrard back. On that note, I'm going with the Jaguars. Jaguars win. Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals: I like the Bengals. I do. But not against the Dolphins. If they actually played for two halves of football then maybe I could take them, but instead the Bengals seem determined to wait until the second half of every game before finally coming to life. Dolphins win. Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs: I've said before that I like the Bills. I think they're moving in the right direction. So the question is; do I like them enough to take them over the Chiefs? No, no I don't. It'll be tight, but Kansas can do it. Chiefs win. Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions: I'm not buying whatever it is the Redskins are selling. The Bears had opportunities to win the game against the Redskins last week but somehow couldn't take them. When your struggling against the Bears that's bad. Though come to think of it, the Lions lost to the Bears, albeit because of the Calvin Johnson touchdown that didn't count. Ah well, I'm going Lions. I think they're grossly under rated and the opposite is true of the Redskins. Lions win. Carolina Panthers @ St. Louis Rams: Even after winning last week, I can't take the Panthers. They offend the eyes of fans with their shocking play. The Rams meanwhile are pretty good so I see this as being fairly easy. Which is a perfect way to curse St. Louis. Rams win. Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets: I don't really understand the Packers. How can they play so well offensively at times, and yet against the Vikings last week they often looked lost, as if the team had only been playing together for a week or two? The Jets have been an enigma offensively as well; in pre-season they looked horrendous, but during the regular season they have at times looked inspired. And at times they've looked terrible. But I'm prepared to give New York the benefit of the doubt on this one, mainly because the Packers are so banged up. Jets win. Tennessee Titans @ San Diego Chargers: The Chargers have probably been the most entertaining team in the NFL this year. They rack up the yards by putting on a truly impressive offensive display... and then throw games away with their hilariously bad special teams. You couldn't write a more entertaining season. The only people who shouldn't find it funny are Chargers fans, but even then I'm sure some are laughing, even if it's only because that's better than crying. Titans win. Minnesota Vikings @ New England Patriots: No mummy jokes this week. Instead I'd just like to say how sick and damn tired I've been of wandering the web this week and finding four or more Brett Favre related stories on every site. Who -- other than Vikings fans and the mainstream press -- really cares that much about Favre? So his starting streak might come to an end; boo hoo. Right now I'd take Tavaris Jackson over a battered and almost broken Favre. Even better, I'd take the Patriots. Patriots win. Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Arizona Cardinals: Even if I hated the Buccaneers in this game, I'd still take them over the "Cradinals". Buccaneers win. Seattle Seahawks @ Oakland Raiders: It pains me to say that the Raiders are better than they look, but the Raiders are better than they look. It doesn't pain me at all to say how much I hate the Seahawks right now and how glad I am that I believe they're a terrible football team. Raiders win. Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints: One of the more interesting games this week. Especially for me. Last year I maintained that the Saints strength of schedule coupled with some poor decisions by their opponents (plus a dollop of referee assistance) contributed to the Saints going all the way and winning the Super Bowl. I also maintained that if they played a top team then it would end miserably for the 'Aints. This is the perfect chance to test my theory. And I believe it will hold up. Steelers win. Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts: Earlier this year the football world was rocked when the Texans finally put away a W against the Colts. Even more surprising was that after leading the league in passing in 2009, the Texans did it all on the ground with Arian Foster. I'm going to back them for a two in a row against the Colts. I still think the Texans D is more flimsy than a particularly thin slice of cheese, but I also think the Colts defense has trouble remembering how to tackle. Texans win. So that's my picks for week 8. Overall I believe I'm 49-55 on the season so I'm really hoping I can claw back some wins this week. In case you hadn't caught on yet I'll be in London tomorrow, in which case you really should stop scan reading the blog. Hopefully I'll post something resembling a recap on Monday. Till then... do me a brief favour and share the web address with a few friends, family, football nerds that you know. You can also e-mail me at: keepingthechainsmoving@live.co.uk Have a great day everyone.

London calling

Ugh. My recent work schedule has piled upon me once again, so this is again a very brief stop. Tomorrow I should have time to fit in my picks and even if I can't go into detail, I'll at least produce a list for you. But today I want to harp briefly on a subject that means a lot to me; the prospect of a London franchise. I hate the idea. This week Commissioner Goodell has restated his desire to see a regular franchise in Europe, most likely in London. It -- in my opinion -- is the single stupidest idea that guy has ever had. Now don't get me wrong, I was very appreciative of the chance two years ago to watch the Saints play the Chargers. It was my first live, in the flesh NFL game. And I'm very appreciative this year of the chance to go and watch the 49ers play (well, I'd be more so if they weren't sucking so badly). But a London franchise? I wouldn't support it. I wouldn't care about it. I very much doubt anyone else would either. One reason for this is that when you walk around the stadium on game day, what you see is a flurry of jersey's. Pretty much every team is represented (hand on heart, I didn't see a single Texans jersey last time). This is because everyone else like me who is in to football has been watching it for years. In that time we have all developed our favourites. We have no interest in a London team. But even that isn't the main reason. The main reason is because I know how pissed off British soccer fans would be if the Premier league suddenly turned around and said "oh by the way, we're moving Manchester United to New York". The fans would be in uproar and the rest of the teams would look at that calendar date with dread. It's just such a dumb idea, god knows how it made it past the drawing board. Surely the minute this left Goodells mouth his own advisers should have just shot it down, with big, exploding, armor piercing-incendiary, 40mm rounds. Surely someone stood up and said "Roger, don't be a dumb ass!". Please tell me someone had the sense and balls to stand up to Goodell and tell him how crazy this is? Not that Goodell would listen anyway, but that's not the point. Anyway, must sleep. Have a great day everyone.

A retraction by addition

I've always maintained that while bashing teams, coaches, players, analysts etc is relatively fair game, at the same time they have to be given credit when they a) doing something good and/or b) make an effort to fix a perceived problem tat you've bashed them for. A good example is Dez Bryant. Coming into the 2010 season I was expecting Bryant to fall flat on his face after the shambles that was his last year in college and his preparation for the draft. But he's proved everyone wrong. He made the effort through training camp to get out first and work hard to show the Cowboys organisation that he's committed. So far on game days he's played well and despite having to spend his fair share of time on the bench, we haven't heard a peep of complaint. He's working to shed any "diva" image, and that's commendable. And so we come to ProFootballTalk.com. Having bashed them yesterday I must now take my hat off to them for highlighting this story which I couldn't find reported on any of the other major football news sites. Well done to them. Now time to resolve how my weekend is going to pan out. Picks for this weeks games will likely be spread out over the ensuing evenings, then it'll be time for me to get some serious kip ahead of the two hour coach trip to Wembley to watch the 49ers and Broncos flap about on a football field for probably the most expensive 3 hours of boredom I've ever experienced. Have a great day everyone.

The glaringly obvious

Just a brief stop in for now. Starting with... ProFootballTalk.com. This article cracked me up. The Panthers struggle with the running game is fairly obvious. I say this because it's the same problem they had last year; they just don't run the ball anywhere near as much as they did in the '08 season. It's possible to post a one hundred yard game with just 15-16 carries, as some running backs have shown this year. But typically that number has to go up. A lot. The same is true of quarterbacks. A QB can throw for over 300 yards off of just 15-25 passes, but it's much more difficult than if he was throwing 35-45 times per game. I assumed this point was generally well understood among the sports writing community, but apparently not so. I'll be back later (hopefully), but till then, Have a great day everyone.

Kirwan watch continues

It's been a long time since I did a "Kirwan watch", mainly because I gave up reading Pat Kirawns articles on NFL.com. But today I stumbled across his most recent work; a look at if/how Cover 2 defenses contribute to helmet to helmet hits. It is truly a masterpiece example of an analyst who only knows half the puzzle of football. What makes me laugh is the comments section, where some people praise Kirwan for his "expert analysis". Jesus. My main point of contention is diagram 2 and the description that goes with it. Thankfully the person who made the diagram for Pat has a bit better understanding of what they're doing. I say this because Kirwan describes a shallow cross route as being run "... at a depth of about 10 yards." Really Pat? I was always inclined to believe that it was run at barely 5 yards deep. The clue is kind of in the title my friend; Shallow Cross. But even then, when we get to figure 3 the guy doing the diagram drawing loses the plot as well. Maybe he was just confused by Kirwans instructions. In diagram 3a the point is made about what happens to receivers running a shallow cross through a zone coverage; they often get hit hard during/shortly after a catch. Yet in figure 3b the slot receiver is shown as "sitting down" (that is, finding an open space between two defenders and stopping) at pretty much the exact spot that was just highlighted as being dangerous. The receiver on the crossing route should ideally be sitting in the throwing lane aligned between the MLB and SLB. Then you catch the ball, turn up field and try not to get your head taken off. It just amazes me. There are ex-players working for the NFL Network and NFL.com. Cant one of them point out to someone in a position of power that Pat seems to know as much about the ins and outs of football as the dude I'll be going to Wembley with on Sunday? It just seems odd. NFL.com is a big hub for the league. Articles like this just make the whole thing look stupid and amateurish. Oh, and if anyone knows how to make fancy graphics like in Kirwans article, let me know! (keepingthechainsmoving@live.co.uk) Have a great day everyone.

Week 7 round up

Week 7 round up time. Kind of a little late, but... tough: Cincinnati Bengals 32 @ Atlanta Falcons 39: The Bengals and the Falcons had an odd one, trading points by quarter instead of the usual "you score, I score". Matt Ryan was 24/33 for 299 yards, 3 TDs and an INT. Roddy White was the biggest winner with 11 catches for 201 yards and 2 TDs. Even Michael Turner got in on the act with 23 carries for 121 yards and 2 TDs. But it's not like the Bengals didn't try. Carson Palmer tried to shake off some of the criticism of him by coming up with 36/50 for 412 yards and 3 TDs. That including giving WRs Chad Ochocinco and Jordan Shipley (watch list) 100+ yards receiving games. Even Terrell Owens came close with 88. But it wasn't to be. Two forced fumbles from Falcons LB Curtis Lofton, and two sacks from DE John Abraham were rare defensive highlights in a game dominated by offense. Pittsburgh Steelers 23 @ Miami Dolphins 22: An efficient day from Ben Roethlisberger (19/27, 302 yards, TD) was enough to see off the Dolphins. There seems to be a lot of controversy surrounding The touchdown-that-was-then-ruled-a-fumble but ended up being recovered by the Steelers who then kicked the field goal, but I don't see much else that could have been done from the refs perspective. As always in a game like this, much of the best play came from the defensive side. Dolphins safety Yeremiah Bell continues to impress with a sack and a forced fumble, with fellow safety Chris Clemons also getting a half sack and two more forced fumbles. Overall though, a forgettable game. Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens: So; 29/43, 374 yards, 4 TDs, 2 INTs. Against the Ravens. I wonder if Ryan Fitzpatrick will get tagged as "mediocre" again this week? He took receivers Lee Evans and Steve Johnson both over 100 yards, and even tossed 3 TDs to Evans. But his defense.... not so good. The Ravens D was (in a way). Ed Reed made his return to the line up and marked it with two interceptions and a forced fumble. Then we come to Ray Lewis; 14 tackles, a sack and then a critical forced fumble in over time. Ravens are looking dangerous as they keep finding ways to win, albeit by the skin of their teeth. Jacksonville Jaguars 20 @ Kansas City Chiefs 42: You know your bad when the Chiefs are putting 40 points on you. And I don't even mean that in the sense that the Chiefs were bad last year. I mean it in the sense that the Chiefs this year have been bad offensively. If you're giving up 40+ points to this offense, then there are some serious, gaping holes in your line. Thomas Jones went out for the Chiefs and proved he still had it with 20 carries for 125 yards and a TD. Jamaal Charles put on another. Then Dwayne Bowe -- yes, that Dwayne Bowe -- caught 2 touchdowns, including a fantastic slip between two defenders before working his way back past them and into the end zone. But again, defense was critical. For the Jaguars their one sack is not good enough. I though Tyson Alualu (watch list) was going to be playing defensive end this year, so I'm sad to see his skills being under utilized. The Chiefs meanwhile are squeezing every last drop of value out of their guys. Rookie Safety Eric Berry (watch list) got himself an interception and a forced fumble. LB Tamba Hali got another sack. And then the highly, highly under rated LB Derrick Johnson got a pick 6 that was the beginning of the end for Jacksonville. Cleveland Browns 30 @ New Orleans 17: Just digest these numbers for a second; 37/56, 356 yards, 2 TDs and 4 INTs. Does that really sound like Drew Brees to you? And 56 passes? Even for the Saints that is insanely high. Two passes in particular were costly. With the Browns struggling mightily on offense, the Saints gifted the Browns 14 points when LB David Bowens took two interceptions back for touchdowns. Even Scott Fujita, formerly of the Saints dug the boot it, leading his team in tackles with 10, plus a sack and a huge red zone interception of his own. Who dat say dey gonna beat dem Saints? Uh... Cleveland? At least they can spell properly. Washington Redskins 17 @ Chicago Bears 14: Why can't I stop looking and laughing at the stat of 4 INTs next to Jay Cutlers name? It's just a farce now in Chicago. If they're not giving up 10 sacks then they're giving up 4 plus 4 interceptions. Now I'm sorry, I know JaMarcus Russell was bad, but Jay Cutler is worse. This is a big time bust. Given the hype around Cutler since his drafting, the expensive trade that brought him to Chicago and now what has been one of the most spectacular meltdowns I've ever seen, Cutler needs that bust sign hung around his neck. Even the Bears defense couldn't bail them. Five forced fumbles wasn't enough to off set the four sacks, including two from Brian Orakpo, plus the four interceptions by DeAngelo Hall who had a great game. San Francisco 49ers 20 @ Carolina Panthers 23: I don't even wanna talk about it. St. Louis Rams 17 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18: Tampa had one sack. One. They struggled to complete over 50% of their passes. But they completed one when it counted and that's all that matters. Rams RB Steven Jackson had another 100+ yard day on the ground which now makes him the Rams all time leading rusher, but it was a small positive to take from a game that otherwise fizzled out from the Rams perspective. Philadelphia Eagles 19 @ Tennessee Titans 37: Yards are great but touchdowns are better. Remember this Kevin Kolb. Kolb went 26/48 but could muster just one touchdown compared to Kerry Collins who put up just 17/31, but had 3 TDs to his name, all thrown to Kenny Britt. Britt finished with 7 catches for an eye popping 225 yards and 3 TDs. Cap the Titans scoring with a Cortland Finnegan interception return for a TD and you have yourself a 37-19 ball game. I just don't get the Eagles defense. They had 3 sacks, including one for Trent Cole and one for safety Quintin Mikell, who also came up with an interception and a fumble. But somehow the Eagles continue to get burned deep on a fairly routine basis. Arizona Cardinals 10 @ Seattle Seahawks 22: Boy do those Cardinals look awful. Two fumbles on special teams is bad enough. Then you look at the QBs and you see 8/17 plus 4/16 for a combined 12/33. Seriously? The defense tried, but even 5 sacks wasn't enough to help this team. Marshawn Lynch got a steady diet of carries with 24 for 89 yards, but again it's the defense that needs to get some love. DE Chris Clemons ut up another sack and a forced fumble, while rookie Earl Thomas came up with yet another interception in his first year. New England Patriots 23 @ San Diego Chargers 20: I love watching the Chargers play. It's freakin' hilarious. Watching them stack up yards and then absolutely bomb out due to silly errors. But this game has also proved quite annoying. Already there is another "should Belichick have gone for it on fourth down?" debate. Naturally the stats people who tend to support the view that all coaches should go for it more on 4th down (of course you would.... when you're not there on the sideline on game day and your butts not the one in the firing line), have been adamant that Bill made the right choice. But the reality is that Belichick and the Patriots were about 3 or so inches from heading to over time. And this is what I love about the stat freaks/game theorists etc. When it all goes bad they accuse people like me of harping on the negatives and only looking at a few instances, yet shout triumphantly themselves when these risky decisions occasionally pay off and try to use that as proof they were right. Three inches. That -- and a gust of wind -- are all that separated Belichick from another public crucifixion. Oakland Raiders 59 @ Denver Broncos 14: Holy.... you know what. Darren McFadden; 16 carries, 165 yards, 3 TDs. Then tack on another 31 yards and another TD from 2 catches and what you have is a career day my friends. The Broncos were made to look average by a Raiders team on fire. They even got sacks! Kamerion Wimbley, Tommy Kelly and Richard Seymour soloed, while Trevor Scott and Rolando McClain shared another. Now just like the AFC West has been blown wide open once more. They're even putting up a fight (excluding Kansas) with the NFC West for the worst division in football. Minnesota Vikings 24 @ Green Bay Packers 28: Lets not pretend for even a second that the Vikings were unlucky to lose this one. Favre made some seriously stupid mistakes along the way, some that led to interceptions. In the fourth quarter, when the Vikings needed Randy Moss the most, the guy disappeared into obscurity. His run blocking was terrible all night. At the end he wasn't even running to find space in the passing game. It was just poor. In the mean time Aaron Rodgers was struggling to hook up with his receivers as a number of miscommunications' took place, but ultimately the Packers did enough to win, including a pick six from LB Desmond Bishop. New York Giants 41 @ Dallas Cowboys 35: So you've just picked off Eli Manning twice and taken a 10 point lead. Then rookie Dez Bryant returns a punt 93 yards for a TD. You've got to be smiling and thinking "we have this one down, as long as we keep tight and keep going". Err, not quite as it turns out. With the injury to Tony Romo, it meant the entry into the battle of Jon Kitna. Ultimately Kitna would find Dez Bryant for two touchdowns but by that point it was lost. Eli Manning had recovered to throw four touchdowns, RB Ahmad Bradshaw ripped off 126 yards from 24 carries, and even Brandon Jacobs got in on the action with 12 carries for 75 yards and a TD. The Cowboys on the other hand ran the ball just 13 times and converted a stellar 0/10 on 3rd downs. Man the Cowboys are in bad shape. After rocking to 8-6 for the week pick wise (as far as this season goes, that is rocking) I'm now 49-55 on the season. I smell a recovery on the cards. Have a great day everyone.

Giants @ Cowboys, Monday Night Football

Just a few quick notes on the Monday Night game:

• I finished the week 8-6 for picks, which makes a change this season.
• Having shot off to a great start, the injury to Tony Romo just seem to sap the life right out of the Cowboys.
• Despite leading the game 20-7 at one point, the Cowboys ran the ball just 13 times.
• Ahmad Bradshaw put up another 100 yard rushing game.
• The big winner from this game might be Dez Bryant; 3 TDs in total.
• DT Barry Cofield put in a good shift with a sack and 2 forced fumbles.
• The Cowboys were 0/10 on 3rd down. That's a 0% efficiency rating. How do you not manage to convert even just one of those?
• For once the Cowboys only gave up 5 penalties, which was less than their opponents.

Have a great day everyone.

Notes on Week 7 so far

As always these days I'm pushed for time, so a full round up of week 7 probably wont emerge till either tomorrow or Tuesday. But here are some notes and things:

• Pick wise the abject season continues. I'm 7-6 so far with one game left to play.
• Someone needs to remind the Bengals that football games involve two halves.
• The Steelers were lucky to squeak by Miami who are now 0/3 at home.
• I said that the Bills were a little under rated, predominantly Ryan Fitzpatrick. I think even I under rated them a little.
• Someone should remind the Jaguars D-line that just because they have Aaron Kampman now, that doesn't mean the rest of them can just give up on trying to get sacks.
• Will Tamba Hali get any credit this season now that he's been a consistent sack artist?
• Only the Browns could score 30 points and yet only get one offensive TD.
• Orakpo finally went to Disneyland. But DeAngelo Hall will be sleeping with Snow White after 4 picks.
• Do the 49ers have any feet left to shoot themselves in?
• The Buccaneers refuse to win games before the final minute.
• Kenny Britt had almost as many yards receiving from 7 catches as the entire Eagles team from 26.
• Will Seahawks DE Chris Clemons too start to get credit soon for his consistent sack artistry?
• And does anyone else remember the time when Matt Hasselbeck used to be good?
• Give the Chargers credit; at least when they lose they do it in hilarious fashion.
• Yep, I definitely cursed the Broncos yesterday.
• Someone should remind Brett Favre he doesn't play for the Packers anymore. And while you're at it, teach Randy Moss how to run in the 4th quarter.

Have a great day everyone.

Week 7 picks

It's that time again. Picks: Cincinnati Bengals @ Atlanta Falcons: God, what a way to start. The Bengals aren't as bad as people think. They just have a habit of shooting themselves in the foot at the worst possible times. The Falcons on the other hand are an oddball; they pound bad teams into the floor and then struggle to beat the better sides. So which group do we throw the Bengals in? Bad team that the Falcons will pound? Better team that the Falcons will struggle against? My gut instinct is to give the Bengals the benefit of the doubt and say they take it. Bengals win. Pittsburgh Steelers @ Miami Dolphins: Probably not a high scorer on the cards, but a good game none the less. For me, the Steelers offense looked much better with Ben Roethlisberger in the line up and I can see the Steelers taking the early lead and forcing Chad Henne to air it out as the Dolphins play catch up. You have to think the Steelers defense will like the sound of that. Steelers win. Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens: Even though I've defended the Bills at time against what I feel has been unfair criticism of certain players, I have to say that the Bills are on their own for this one. I cant see them taking down a Ravens team that is very good still, despite their offensive coughs and splutters. Ravens win. Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs: I ask the question every week, but it's probably the most relevant one with regards to the Jaguars; which David Garrard will show up? Not that the Chiefs are an imposing offensive force to be reckoned with, but their defense is a hell of a lot better than the Jaguars. As we saw against the Titans on Monday night, the Jaguars can self destruct in the face of a tight D, while the Chiefs have remained pretty disciplined, even in the face of adversity. I don't fancy the Jags chances in Kansas. Chiefs win. Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints: I can just see it now. The return of Darren Sharper from injury this week coinciding with the arrival of a Browns offense led by a rookie QB. Sharper gets a pick or two and then I have to listen to a week of "Darren Sharper was the missing piece!! Defensive MVP of the league!! The Saints will 2-peat 4 sur!!". No, no they wont. And learn to spell, a$$hat (It's 'who that?' What are you eleven?). Sadly though, the Saints will probably win this one. Saints win. Washington Redskins @ Chicago Bears: The wheels are falling off the Bears bandwagon quicker than the Democrats off of Obamas'. And the Redskins are poised to take advantage. LB Brian Orakpo looks like a child whose been promised he can go to Disneyland at the weekend and is now getting progressively agitated as the time approaches. You sense he is about to explode in phenomenal fashion. The only problem for me is the Redskins offense matched with the Bears D. It's not a good combo for the Redskins, but they should have enough to squeak it out. Redskins win. San Francisco 49ers @ Carolina Panthers: Surely San Francisco. Surely my guys in red and gold can't lose to the Panthers? Surely? I wouldn't put it past them. That's how bad our season is. I'm looking at the Carolina Panthers who are truly terrible on offense and I'm thinking to myself; "this isn't a guarantee..." How can this be? How did the Panthers sink to this level and how did the 49ers get sucked down with them? It has to stop this week. 49ers win. Surely...... St. Louis Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Every year each team plays 6 games inside its division, 4 games against teams from another division in its own conference, and 4 games against teams from another division in the opposite conference. To fill out the remaining two game gap, teams then play the other two teams in its conference that finished in the same position within their respective divisions last season (got all that?). This has resulted in the almost annual Colts vs. Patriots game. This year it has given us the Rams vs the Buccaneers, god help us. The Rams have improved quite a bit with a steady hand at the tiller in Sam Bradford. Their defense has even remembered what it's like to get a sack. I have to go with St. Louis on this one. Rams win. Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans: Hmm. I always seem to start at least one pick per week by saying that. This week it's the Eagles and Titans (though I probably didn't need to explain that). But I only say hmm for a reason, usually being that I have no Earthly clue who is going to win the game. The Eagles offense has potential, regardless of who suits up as the QB. But without DeSean Jackson among its receiving corps, the game just got a bit harder for the Eagles. The Titans defense meanwhile has the talent to generate heaps of pressure when they want to and could really put Kolb in some tough spots. I'm not sure how confident I am with this, but I'm backing Tennessee to come out, play conservative "Titans" football and sneak it. Titans win. Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks: The Cardinals (or "Cradinals" as I normally end up mis-spelling their name each week during my first draft) are really not anything approaching a good team. Luckily for them, nor are Seattle! I felt the Seahawks drafted really pretty well, but that's more of a looking-into-a-crystal-ball-at-the-future type thing, not so much this year. I also can't stand the motivational style of the worlds single finest Bill Walsh look-a-like; Pete Carroll . Every time he gets mic'ed up and I hear him tell his players about how great everything is and how great they are, it just makes me cringe. Maybe it's just because I'm such a miserable git. Either way, I desperately want to say that the Seahawks are vastly over rated and have bodged all their wins together this season in some Frankenstein-esque combination of offense, defense and special teams, thus they will lose and be exposed by the Cardinals. But the reality is the 'Cradinals' are just that bad. Seahawks win. We interrupt this blog post to point out that I've just noticed that the NFL has changed the Super Bowl logo for this year, so it now looks distinctly less like a p**** compared to last year. Back to the picks. New England Patriots @ San Diego Chargers: What, you think I trust the Chargers to win a game now? Especially given their record on special teams, specifically protection. Remember the Dolphins fired their special teams coordinator earlier this year after a disastrous performance against..... the Patriots. Screw that. Patriots win. Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos: The Broncos are starting to frustrate me. I picked them at the beginning of the season as surprise winners of the AFC West. To help me in this bold endeavour, the Chargers have kindly agreed to systematically fall apart. The Raiders are.... well they're the Raiders. And although the Chiefs have been good defensively, they obliged me by not upgrading their offense at the QB position, leaving them open to lose their fair share of games along the way. The Broncos then have had the road to the division title opened for them... and have decided to take a detour across the field of "no running game". It's there, trust me. They Broncos can run, if they just tried. They even -- dare I curse them by saying it -- have the inner workings of a Super Bowl caliber team in the making (I would openly admit to being a partial Broncos fan, but that won't sit very well when I head to Wembley next week to watch them against the 49ers). So where was all this going? Honestly, I've forgotten. Broncos win. Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers: The Mummy Returns to Green Bay (are we getting sick of Mummy related jokes yet? No? good). They say that where there's smoke, there's fire; and where there's a Vikings vs. Packers game, there will inevitably be a flame war somewhere on the Internet. Who's the better QB blah, blah, who's more likely to win a play off game this year, blah, blah, did the Packers make the right choice etc, etc. Well, the point could well end up being mute, because the reality is that the Packers defense is more banged up than an abused spouse and the secondary has more holes in it than a politicians election pledge. Stick that up against the combination of Brett Favre to Randy Moss and what you end up with is a one-legged man at a butt kicking competition. Vikings win. New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys: Hmm (that's twice this week). The trouble with this game is that the Giants seem to be rather selective as to which games they decide they're actually going to show up to and play properly. The Cowboys at least have a degree of consistency; turning up to every game with no serious intention of winning it. If they did then maybe they wouldn't keep getting flagged for things like excessive celebration, though the way things have been going in Dallas lately, every touchdown is a positive. There's just something about "Americas Team" that makes them so easy to hate. Maybe it's the smug sense of self-supremacy and entitlement that seems to hang around the team. Or maybe it's just because they have the biggest telly in the neighbourhood. Either way, I'm taking New York. Giants win. There we go. 14 games, 14 picks. Given the way this season has gone, if I can go above .500 Ill be happy. Have a great day everyone.

Tackling the issue head on

As a final follow up to the whole issue of dangerous hits in the NFL, it's time to look at tackling in general. If players are to avoid penalties then they must learn to tackle properly. This is something that has actually been a pet annoyance of mine for some years now. Top defensive players earn huge sums of money, therefore it would seem callous of them not to learn how to tackle properly. Seemingly few of them share this point of view. One of the reasons the Colts gave up so many yards to Redskins RB Ryan Torain last week was their inability (and seeming lack of desire) to actually tackle Torain properly. So, just how do we make such tackles? Well there are five major types of tackle: 1) The Head-on tackle 2) Tackling across the ball carrier 3) Tackling the defenseless receiver 4) Tackling from behind 5) The Secondary or "finishing" tackle Before we delve deeper into these, we need to solve a problem of terminology. See, in recent years the terms "tackle" and "hit" have become separated. You now "hit" a player with the full force of your body in a suicidal lunge, usually led with the shoulder. Whereas "tackle" suggests a much slower moving affair, involving grabbing the ball carrier and pulling him down. We first need to address this problem. All tackles are hits. Or should be. It is difficult to do so when tackling from behind, but otherwise, all tackles should be considered hits. The purpose of a tackle is not to softly caress the ball carrier down to the ground with a well placed hug. The purpose of the tackle is to halt the ball carriers momentum in a sudden strike, and then to bring him to the ground. The Head-on tackle is the best example of this: The Head-on tackle: This is the ultimate expression of the tackle in football. The tackler and the ball carrier meet either in a hole between blockers or in the open field. Due to circumstances on the field, the ball carrier has been forced to head "North/South" and the tackler is now in a position to make the play. He must stop the ball carrier, or at the very least significantly impede his forward progress so as to allow pursuing defenders to make the final tackle (you do teach pursuit drills now, don't you?). The key to this tackle is to keep the weight low, but going forward. The back must be kept a few degrees higher than horizontal and the head should be up, eyes on the ball carrier. The knees are bent and the tackler now shortens his step, almost to a forward shuffle. He should be on his toes, ready to explode into the ball carrier at a moments notice. Here is where "hitting" and "tackling" converge. The goal should be to aim the shoulder into the upper thighs/groin area of the ball carrier and deliver a powerful strike that checks the ball carriers forward momentum, before driving him backwards. The hands and arms will then be used to scoop the legs of the ball carrier and ensure that he his brought to the ground. It is important to understand that the tackler must be going forward at the moment of contact. He must not let the ball carrier collide with him and knock him backwards. If this happens, the chances of making a successful tackle drop dramatically and the potential for injury to the tackler goes up. This picture, taken during a Rugby game and found on Google images, demonstrates the point in exemplary fashion: In the correct Head-on tackle, the tackler should be pushing off his toes and firing forwards into the ball carrier. He should place his head to the side and drive the shoulder into the opponent. Ideally the ball carrier should drive at a slightly upward angle, helping to lift the ball carrier from his feet. This approach should be tempered with a warning not to try and lift the ball carrier vertically. This places a lot of strain on the tacklers lower back and is hardly an ideal way to tackle. A slight rise as the ball carrier is forced back is sufficient. The final component is now to wrap the legs, but again this causes problems. "Wrapping up" all too often seems to get translated as "flail ones arms loosely at the opponents legs". That is not tackling. The use of the arms should be considered an aggressive strike. Speed is the key. The hands and forearms should seek out the back of the knees and deliver a sharp, powerful blow that whips the ball carriers feet from the ground and traps his legs against the tacklers body. For the more narcissistic players on a team, they now have a perfect excuse for all those chin ups and bicep curls (though they had better be great tacklers as a result). The end result of all this should see the ball carrier driven backwards forcefully, almost approaching the horizontal as his legs are swept up from beneath him. It's also surprisingly difficult for a ball carrier to actually keep hold of the ball during such a tackle. With the tacklers helmet off set to the side there is an increased risk of head-to-ball contact which will jar it loose, not to mention that when struck and unseated from the ground in such a violent manner, it is only human to flail out the arms and attempt to avoid a serious fall. The two best examples I could find on the web of a perfect looking tackle are now presented for you. It should be noted that not only were these practically the only two examples I could find, but that only one comes from football. I think this is a reflection of the state tackling in the NFL and even many lower leagues today. Tackling across the ball carrier This tackle normally happens in a chase to the sideline. The ball carrier is usually trying to get outside so he may "turn the corner" and sprint up field. The other major example of this is a player running up the sideline as the tackler comes in from midfield; in this case, a safety is the most likely tackler. In both situations the tackler and the ball carrier are closing at an angle to each other, usually headed in roughly the same direction (towards the sideline, towards the endzone). The primary difference between this tackle and the head-on tackle is the difficulty generated by the angle of attack. The tackler cannot afford to aim at his opponents near hip and expect to make a clean tackle. What you will end up with is the tackler coming up short and flailing to try and grasp his opponents ankles. This is due to the same phenomenon seen in both shooting and throwing the football to a receiver on a crossing pattern known as "lead". The potential tackler must "lead" his target. This is one of the biggest mistakes seen in modern football. Tacklers taking good angles at a ball carrier running along the sideline often ultimately fail because they do not properly lead the target. The aiming point is dependent on the speed of the ball carrier, but typically should involve the tackler aiming ahead of the opposite hip of his opponent. The end result should see the tacklers shoulder make contact with the near hip, with his head crossing in front of the ball carrier. Again, the tackler should first break down as he did for the head-on tackle and then drive slightly upwards and through his opponent. The arms should again enclose the ball carriers legs and be brought in sharply, striking a blow at approximately knee height. If the tackler misjudges his tackle or even the angle on approach then he must focus instead on delivering a firm sweeping strike with his arms to the opponents legs. Tackling the defenseless receiver This is the tackle that has drawn the most controversy of late, but is rather simple to execute correctly. The ideal tackle on a defenseless receiver -- who is usually crossing the field -- should be made using the same break down and drive technique as the Head-on tackle. Typically the tackler is now coming "downhill" at a slight angle to the potential receiver. Similar then to the tackle across the ball carrier, the tackle on the defenseless receiver must be "lead" a little. The goal should be to strike the nearest hip of the receiver with the nearest shoulder of the tackler, with the head passing across the front of the receivers body. There is not as much need to drive slightly upwards with this tackle, as the receiver will usually be in the air anyway. The primary goal is to strike a fearsome blow that will a) disrupt the receivers concentration on making the catch, b) effect his body positioning to make the catch and c) dent the confidence of the receiver in making catches over the middle, forcing him to be more hesitant in future to the extent of concentrating more on potential hits than catching the football. Once more, players should also be aware of the need to deliver a sharp, wrapping strike to the legs, in order to better prevent a receiver from making yards after the catch. It is also worth cautioning players against leaving the ground early to make the hit. When jumping to make such a hit, a defender sacrifices much of the stability and leverage gained from his initial low stance; he also expends a large amount of energy leaping almost vertically off the ground. Tacklers should focus more on keeping their shoulders down and driving near laterally behind these. The better balance and body position of the tackler should prevail. Tackling from behind The tackle from behind is vastly more difficult than any of the others. The key problem for a would be tackler is that all notions of delivering a "hit" are now out of the window. The tackle from behind is a matter of judging distance, timing and strong use of the arms. The tackler must know how far he can dive while at top speed, must make sure he does not dive too early, and then he must remove the ball carriers feet from under him. The biggest problem seen at the professional level when tackling from behind, is the obsession with causing fumbles. As a result we often see players who have a great opportunity to make a touchdown saving tackle sacrifice this in favour of trying to cause the fumble; either by striking down from above or patting the ball upwards from below. The point that should be made is that even the worst offenders among those who carry the ball lazily (ahem, Adrian Peterson, I'm looking at you) still only give up about 7-8 fumbles per year. Causing fumbles is something the second tackler does, not the first. The job of the chasing tackler is to save the score. That is the priority. Thus, the most critical part of this tackle becomes the use of the arms to snare the ball carriers legs. As with all the other tackles it should not be approached with the mind set of wrapping the arms around the legs and then squeezing with ever increasing pressure until the ball carrier comes down. It should be seen as an attack, as a strike. The two arms should be seen as delivering simultaneous blows from either side to knock the ball carriers legs from under him, followed by a vice like grip. The secondary or "finishing" tackle Finally we come to the secondary or "finishing" tackle (also referred to as the "follow-up" tackle and a host of other names). The purpose of this tackle is -- surprisingly enough -- to finish off a ball carrier who has already been stopped or partially tackled by a team mate. This can occur when the original tackler has a hold of the ball carrier but is unable to bring him down; either through a deficiency in strength or a deficiency in leverage/technique. Alternatively, the original tackler may have hit the ball carrier and checked his momentum, but subsequently slipped off the tackle, maybe due to a spin move by the ball carrier. Now it is the job of the secondary tacklers to bring the man down. The preferred approach is to use the Head-on tackle method, but this is not always possible. Only when the ball carrier is standing erect and trying to escape can this method be used. When a ball carrier is entangled around the legs by the first tackler he is often ducking, making the head-on method unsuitable due to the risk of helmet-to-helmet contact. The new approach should be to use an upper body tackle. Here we begin to see the introduction of ball stripping techniques. The secondary tackler should break down as normal and the target should now be the torso of the ball carrier, with a view to making chest-to-torso contact. The arms should now encase the upper body and again strike firmly. The tackler should look to pass his head over the opponents back and drive him downwards to the turf, using his weight and forward momentum as a bludgeon. If the ball is being held in the arm nearest to the secondary tackler then the recommended method is to first hit and wrap up the opponent to ensure he will go down. Then the arm that passes across the front of the ball carriers body can be used to violently strip at the ball carrying arm. If the ball is on the opposite side to the secondary tackler then he must try to knock it loose in the process of wrapping up the ball carrier with his arms. The initial blow with the arms should -- as always -- be made firmly; a sudden, sharp strike. The key is that the secondary tackler has the advantage of being able to strike somewhat downwards, knocking the ball carriers arms towards his waist. This opens the angle between the forearm and bicep, increasing the likely hood that the ball will come loose in the process. Well, that's all for now. I'll be back later for the infuriating and largely futile process that is known as my weekly picks. Until then, Have a great day everyone.

An inch is as good as a mile

So, in response to the rising tide of public angst over the tougher enforcement of the rule covering "hitting a defenseless receiver", the league sent out a video to all 32 teams to demonstrate the difference between what is legal and what is illegal. In order to help fans identify these hits, they also posted the video onto NFL.com. Here is the link to video if you fancy a watch. What strikes me immediately is the supreme ridiculousness of what we're watching. The difference between the legal hits and the illegal hits is a matter of about 4 inches. If you have a few seconds, I have designed an interesting exercise for you (providing that -- like me --you find these kind of things interesting): 1. Hold your closed fist up in front of your neck, thumb side towards you. 2. Extend the index finger only and place it on the tip of your chin. 3. Now extend the thumb out to touch your chest. 4. Keeping the head upright, reach down as far as you can with your thumb, without removing the index finger from your chin. 5. Now hold that finger position and hold your hand up to observe the distance. Depending on how tall you are (or flexible) the tip of your thumb and the tip of your index finger should be approximately 4-5 inches apart. This provides you with a great visual representation of how much leeway NFL players have. 4 to 5 inches. We'll forget about players running around at high speed. We'll forget about the size of the pads and helmets being used. Exclude all other factors. That is your basic margin for error. Enjoy that NFL players. How in the name of god is this going to work? If you do the experiment again with your fingers, but now curl your upper body forward, tucking the head and rounding the shoulders, you should find that your thumb now reaches down all the way to your stomach (it helps if you have a reasonably ample mid section like me). See the difference? An offensive player hunches over as he makes the catch and now that shot to the chest is going to strike him dead plumb on the head. Hlemt to helmet contact. How are you supposed to stop that as a defensive player? You follow the leagues advice, you do exactly what they tell you and then boom... fine. All because the offensive guy ducked. Notice as well that during the video the narrator emphasised that it's going to be the responsibility of the defensive players to judge and control where they hit. Basically this is nipping any hint that offensive players should be held culpable in the bud. Now I know that every time the league changes a rule or calls for stricter enforcement of an existing one, that there is always uproar and talk of the game going into decline. The trouble with the league is that they've got so used to hearing this they seem to feel that it is simply hot air. But if I was in the league office I would be distinctly uneasy. When have you ever known the league to respond to public backlash by posting a demonstration video on the web, desperately trying to emphasise that football will retain its tough nature? I for one, am worried. With the culmination of factors building, this one could be the straw that breaks many backs. Have a great day everyone (and mind your head).

"Pick" of the week (chortle, chortle)

My eye lids are hanging, barely open. Just enough time then to point you in the direction of this article on Colts.com. For those who lack the time or the inclination to read it, it is basically an article about the Colts, saying that the leagues renewed offense on defense will not affect them as they always "abide by the rules". If that is the case, then someone needs to show Coach Caldwell and Peyton Manning the section covering the use of illegal "pick" plays. Because there is no worse, repeat offender on this issue than the Colts. Have a great day everyone.

The Packer Sweep

Ok, rant time.

This whole "player safety" issue has gone overboard. The league has announced that it will be sending teams a video of what does and does not constitute a legal hit, along with some corporate message that they want coaches to read out. And it's starting to get ridiculous.

The main points of contention are the hits laid on Mohamed Massaquoi and Josh Cribbs by Steelers LB James Harrison, plus the hit laid by Dunta Robinson on DeSean Jackson. Personally, I don't see it. I don't get it. I've seen the hits and I don't get what all the fuss is about. Maybe on the Robinson hit you could argue "shoulder to the head of a defenseless receiver", but It's questionable how defenseless Jackson is and it's a stupid rule anyway. What are you supposed to do about a "defenseless" receiver who might be about to score a TD or get a first down? You decide, "I'll hit him low, in the chest". Then the guy ducks. Now it's helmet to helmet again.

And now the league is making a big thing out of helmet contact? Well how about you stop offensive players from ducking then? I don't know about you, but I don't think my reactions would be quick enough to avoid hitting a player who ducks at the last minute in the head. And I said helmet contact and not "helmet to helmet" contact because there have been a number of questionable calls -- including one this week in the Chargers/Rams game -- where a pass rusher has incidentally stroked a QB on the head with his forearm and drawn a 15 yard flag.

For me, it's getting close to the "quit point"; that is, the moment in time when you decide it's not worth the hassle of watching. You know you'll only get frustrated and worked up about something that doesn't really matter. So you just tune out. For me the "quit point" in soccer came last year after the world cup. I was sick of watching the England teams millionaire "superstars" (really need to lay off the quotation marks) bottoming out to teams made up of part-time players. The annoyance and frustration was superseding any semblance of fun and ultimately that is why we watch sports.

Someone should really tell Roger Goodell that. I think he believes that if he can just remove all the hitting from the game and any notion of defensive play, then people will come flocking in to watch. I think instead Mr. Goodell should try reading the comments section of a few posts on some of the various news outlets. What he would find is an army of die hard football fans who are approaching their own "quit point".

Football is football. It's a violent game. That's the reality. Boxing is violent to. It's also another big sport. Except in boxing they've already thought about safety. They make amateur boxers wear helmets and the bouts are scored based on clean hits with the glove on the head. If you're a boxing fan it can be ok to watch, to see whose is coming up through the ranks. But nobody is going to pay Pay Per View money for an amateur bout.

It's not the skill factor that's the problem. If anything, amateur boxers tend to be very highly skillful. It has more to do with the same reason people pay more money to watch heavyweights than they do flyweights. It's because they want to watch two grown men punching the living daylights out of each other. That's a fact.

That's also a big reason why people watch football. Now I know there will be coaches reading this who will be jumping out of their chairs to bemoan the fact that they watch football for the tactics and the strategy etc. That's certainly true. But a big reason for that is because you, me and many other people understand a little deeper about the inner workings of a football team and how strategy and tactics operate in relation to football. The average fan whose never been exposed to this has a slightly less well developed understanding, but can still appreciate it.

But let's be real. People watch football because at heart, it is a violent, crunching sport. They -- as do I -- enjoy the collisions. We enjoy watching a good defensive hit as much a beautifully spiralled pass into the end zone. It's one of the key factors in the enjoyment of the game. If you take it out, it ceases to be football. You can market it as some other sport, but it's not football and never will be, no matter how hard you try to call it that.

And as for the players and players safety? Find a different sport.

The main argument I have against the "player safety" crowd (which currently appears to consist of Commissioner Roger Goodell, and Mike Florio from ProFootballTalk.com) is simply that nobody is forcing the players to play. They won't get paid the millions if they leave, but then that's tough. The reality is that NFL players are like strippers (possibly the kind that you would find in a back street of Bangkok).

Like strippers, Players get paid only so long as they continue to do the things that people are willing to pay money to watch. If a stripper came onto the stage one day and announced that she refused to remove her clothes because she felt it was demeaning and degrading to women and that she was making a stand for the equal rights of the feminine half of the human race, that's fine...... but she would be booed of the stage, penniless.

Ergo, if NFL players wish to earn millions of dollars then they must dance to the sound of the public purse strings. If the public wants hits to the head, then they must have hits to the head. If they want to see a reasonably violent sport where players get injured and beaten up on a routine basis, then so be it. Anyone who doesn't want to play, merely has to step down and go and play somewhere else. If Goodell wants to turn football into a non-contact sport then that's fine, but just don't expect the millions of the past to tune in and pay to watch.

The players union and the league are currently locked in a CBA battle over hard dollars. At this rate, the next CBA will be over who gets the leagues sole dime and the remaining contents of the coffee machine.

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Now for something completely different. This will probably appeal more to football coaches and those who take an interest in the deeper workings of football, but basically I stumbled across a video on YouTube of Vince Lombardi doing a bit of coaching. Nothing major. So I contacted the YouTube user who posted the video and with much persuasion managed to convince him to dig out his old VHS tapes and have a go at posting some of the other material. What he came up with is a true historical gem. Vince Lombardi, one of the greatest coaches in the history of professional football, coaching the famous "Packer Sweep". With thanks to LuckyLaRue17, enjoy.








Have a great day everyone.

Week 6 recap

So, eventually it's time to recap some of the action. Only a few days late and a little brief, but then work is -- as always -- the great time consumer;

Miami Dolphins 23 @ Green Bay Packers 20: All that time spent running around trying to avoid defenders last year seems to have set Aaron Rodgers in good stead. His ability to slide around in the pocket and buy time was very impressive. Sadly though he still found himself sacked 5 times, including one for Koa Misi (watch list) and three for the superb Cameron Wake. Again though the Packers had another game where they put up pretty good yardage, but just struggled to consistently find the end zone.

San Diego Chargers 17 @ St. Louis Rams 20: What happened to the Chargers? I mean the real Chargers. 7 sacks conceded? Either the Rams D was digging deep or the Chargers line was just that bad. Patrick Crayton offered hope, confirming my belief that he can be a first team WR. But the day belonged to two Rams. RB Steven Jackson carried 29 times for 109 yards and a TD, including some crucial late game runs. And to kick things off early rookie WR Danario Alexander (undrafted, watch list) came up with a TD on his full debut and finished with 4 catches for 72 yards.

Baltimore Ravens 20 @ New England Patriots 23: This is what happens when I finally put my faith in Baltimore? Nice. Lot of great hits going on in this game so for me it was a doozy to watch. The key story was probably the return of Deion Branch to the Patriots fold, along with the important catches he made along the way, especially in over time. Interesting to see Ray Rice put up 88 yards on 28 carries, with his longest run being 8 yards. More ball control than explosion there, which is a good thing. Ultimately though, that famous Ravens D just couldn't hold up at the end.

Cleveland Browns 10 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 28: "Big" Ben Roethlisberger returned. And showed exactly why Pittsburgh fans are prepared to overlook all his indiscretions and forget about all the talk from earlier this year when many of them were saying that they couldn't trust Ben and didn't want him associated with their team. 16/27 wasn't the most efficient, but 257 yards and 3 TDs, with just one pick is still very good. Critically, Roethlisberger was able to pull out the great passes when they were needed most, such as in the red zone and backed up on his own goal line. Colt McCoy (watch list) also got his debut and did ok. He wont mind the two interceptions so much and threw his first NFL career TD pass to Ben Watson. The five sacks are more of a problem.

I should also point out that the media world and the league has been buzzing after James Harrison laid a big hit on Josh Cribbs that knocked him out. I'll cover this in more detail tomorrow.

Kansas City Chiefs 31 @ Houston Texans 35: What a game! The Chiefs drop two in a row as the Texans continue to astound everyone with a) how good their running game is, and b) how chronically bad their defense is. I mean, puke inducing bad. When Dwayne Bowe caught a quick slant and took it 42 yards for a TD, that pretty much summed up the Texans defense. No awareness, no tackling, just a shambling zombie pretending to play D. Luckily for them though the Chiefs were unable to get first downs late in the game and the Texans came back with 2 Touchdown drives in the final 7 minutes to win it. The Chiefs nearly had two 100 yard rushers, Matt Cassel completed 20/29 for 201 yards and 3 TDs, no INTs, but it just wasn't enough. Still, a lot of positives to take away from that game for Kansas.

Detroit Lions 20 @ New York Giants 28: A few weeks ago I suggested that maybe my picks should carry conditions, that if not met, nullify the pick. Well for this game it would have been "unless Shaun Hill comes out injured". Which he did. Drew Stanton didn't do too bad, but his accuracy (19/34) was never going to cut it. Big games from two Giants tipped the balance in the end; DE Osi Unmenyiora had two sacks on the day and RB Ahmad Bradshaw came up with 133 yards on 19 carries, helping to sustain drives that included two touchdown runs by Brandon Jacobs. I still think the Lions need to do more to get Jahvid Best involved in the game but still, it's been one of those seasons for the Lions where everything seems to go wrong at various critical moments. Chin up Detroit fans.

Atlanta Falcons 17 @ Philadelphia Eagles 31: I believed in Kolb (though not his defense or his left tackle, which is why I took the Falcons). Not many other seemed to have as much faith in the supposed future of the QB position in Philadelphia. Well they should have. 23/29, 326 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT. So why have I been so confident in Kolb? Easy, because we've seen this before from him. In the few times he's played prior to this season, we saw Kolb do exactly what he did on Sunday; sling it downfield with reasonable accuracy. Of course it helps when you have DeSean Jackson to throw to, and then when he goes down after a massive hit from Dunta Robinson, Jeremy Maclin just steps right up and turns seven catches into 159 yards and 2 TDs. It was all too much for a Falcons D that will have to go back to square one, while the Eagles D finally did it's job.

Seattle Seahawks 23 @ Chicago Bears 20: I should have known. I should have thought back to the last time Jay Cutler was quarterbacking the Bears. 17/39, for 290 yards. Oh, and six sacks, including one in the end zone for a safety. The Bears continue to have serious protection issues as well as serious run blocking issues. Not so for the Seahawks who managed to get some good running going, especially in the red zone which allowed newly acquired RB Marshawn Lynch to punch in for a score. Devin Hester also reminded the Bears why he shouldn't be wasted on offense as he came up with an 89 yard punt return for a TD.

New Orleans Saints 31 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6: And normality is restored. The Saints blow the Buccaneers off the face of the Earth. I get a pick right. Drew Brees hits 21/32 with 3 TDs. And the Buccaneers run defense folds like a bad hand, giving up 158 yards to Chris Ivory off 15 carries. Yes, 15.

New York Jets 24 @ Denver Broncos 20: For me, the pass interference call that led to the Jets final TD was a little soft. But then isn't everything in football these days (can you smell the rampage coming tomorrow?). Mark Sanchez looked largely off the pace for most of the game, throwing his first interception of the year, followed by his second later on. Luckily for the Jets, Kyle Orton essentially did worse, completing less than 50% of his passes and scoring just a single TD. Rookie QB Tim Tebow (watch list) got a chance to play a few snaps and carried the ball 6 times for 23 yards and his first NFL career TD.

Which brings me to the reason I was most interested in this result; While it seems my ability to stare into the future and predict what's going on in the mind of some of the NFLs Head Coaches and coordinators is lacking (hence the bad picks) my eye for talent seems to be working quite well this year. LaDanian Tomlinson had another 2 TDs. Rookie Demayrius Thomas (watch list) had a TD catch. Tebow we've already spoken of. Then to round it off corner Perrish Cox (watch list) had seven tackles and a FF, while Syd'Quan Thompson (watch list) got the second pick. Not a bad days work really.

Oakland Raiders 9 @ San Francisco 49ers 17: Finally! A win! I don't care that I lost the pick. To hell with it. The 49ers won a game! It's not all good though. Alex Smith still went about his usual Jekyll and Hyde routine, going 16/33 but somehow producing 2 TDs. Frank Gore did what I've long maintained he could do; convert 25 carries into 149 yards (longest; 64). It's a shame that Gore is often such an after thought (and the Raiders poor rush defense helped). The critical factor in the game however was out of the 49ers hands and is the main reason that 49er fans shouldn't get carried away; Jason Campbell completed just 8/21 for 83 yards and 2 INTs. The fact that the Raiders kept it to within 8 points despite that abysmal showing tells you everything you need to know about San Francisco this season.

Dallas Cowboys 21 @ Minnesota Vikings 24: Lets forget the 24/32, 3 TD, 2 INT performance from Tony Romo for a second. Lets forget Brett Favres 14/19 for a TD performance. Lets forget about Adrian Peterson taking 24 carries for 73 yards and a TD. And let's focus on something that basically sums up the Cowboys season. It is the celebration following Roy Williams's TD catch. Miles Austin leapfrogs a standing Williams in a superb display of athleticism... and gets flagged for excessive celebration. And you have to ask yourself this; Why -- given that a late excessive celebration penalty contributed heavily to your defeat last week -- would you even attempt something like this? Why do it? Why aren't the coaches picking up on this? It just boggles the mind and for some reason it drives me nuts. The discipline on this team is shocking. I'm glad now that the Vikings beat them because the Cowboys refuse to help themselves.

Indianapolis Colts 27 @ Washington Redskins 24: It was close. But it was even closer than the score tells. The Redskins had at least three great opportunities to pick off Manning but came up short. The Colts defense clung on desperately, with corner Jerraud Powers finishing with a game leading 8 tackles (almost all of them important) and an interception, 1.5 sacks from Robert Mathis, and a solid showing from rookie Linebacker Pat Angerer, including a sack. But the game was highlighted by the tale of two running backs; Joseph Addai for the Colts and Ryan Torain for the Redskins. Addai had 17 carries for 128 yards and a TD, which is practically unheard of for the Colts in recent years. The opportunities it created for play action were suitably exploited.

But Torain was not so lucky. He had 20 carries for 100 yards and 2 TDs (a big fan, it would seem, of round numbers). He could of -- however -- had much more. Torain was a beast, running over the slightly under sized Colts defense at will. This was helped by the fact that many of the Colts defenders seemed less than keen to get stuck into the tackles. Yet despite the obvious mismatch, the Redskins leaned on Donovan McNabb who went 29/45 for 246 yards, a TD and 2 INTs. I don't get it. I think pretty much everyone watching the game could see that Torain was having his way with the opposition, so why not let him loose? It wasn't like the Colts jumped out to a 20-point lead at any point. Just stupid.

Tennessee Titans 30 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 3: Can I get a Hallelujah? No. But what I can get is a decent pick and a bit of vindication. The injury to Vince Young brought in Kerry Collins and for a moment I was worried that it was all over. But my god, offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger came up good. He held Collins to just 16 passes of which he completed 11 for 110 yards and a TD. Then they got back to doing what they do best; rushing. Chris Johnson carried 26 times for 111 yards and a TD, with Javon Ringer putting in another 42 yards off 10 carries (longest; 13). Coupled with some good defense which included a red zone (technically end zone) interception and a fortuitous injury to David Garrard that meant Trent Edwards had to step in, and the Titans were home and dry.

That's all the weekends action then and it now leaves me at a woeful 41-49 pick wise on the season. I just don't understand what's happened this year. What's happened to the Packers? Why are the Texans so inconsistent? Where did the 2009 49ers go? Who knows. Anyway, I'll be back tomorrow with a personal rant and a little treat for you all, especially those of you who coach. Till then,

Have a great day everyone.

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!

Unfortunately I don't have time right now to run through the games, so it'll probably be done tomorrow. What I can say it this; finally my 49ers won a game and so far I'm 5-8 pick wise with one game to go. Just ridiculous. Have a great day everyone.

Week 6 NFL picks (part 2)

Time now to finish off my picks for the weekend with the final seven games: Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears: Jesus, what a way to start. I hate both teams in this game. I hope it ends in a scoreless tie and both teams are deducted a win for their poor play. The trouble with both teams is that they are both largely an unknown quantity, even now. The Seahawks play ok at home, usually with a healthy dose of special teams, but away from home they seem to self destruct. The Bears just seem to somehow stumble through games, doing everything in their power to lose them, but still coming away with a W. If it wasn't for the sheer ineptness of the Panthers, the Bears would have been rolled into the turf last week. But this week I'm going to back the Bears, on the principle that they'll be too embarrassed to play in front of the their home fans like they did against Carolina. Bears win. New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Quite an interesting battle in the NFC South. It's kind of the tale of two opposite seasons; the Saints won it all last year and are now struggling to reach those heady heights again, while the Buccaneers bottomed out but are now fighting their way back into contention. The Saints threw away a game last week against Cardinals that they really should have won; the Buccaneers some how found their way back into a game they should have lost. The two teams seem to be converging somewhere in the middle of the good/bad spectrum. But who wins? Hmm. I'm still inclined to believe that the Saints are the better team, but the Bucs' have been quite prolific at forcing turnovers in the passing game (they tie with the Panthers for second in most interceptions; 9). Tough pick, but I'm going to have to back New Orleans this time. Saints win. New York Jets @ Denver Broncos: I still maintain that the Broncos are a good team. But I will concede that they don't exactly help themselves. Guessing what the Broncos will do offensively on the next down is pretty simple. When Kyle Orton leads your team in rushing for a game, then you have issues. I just think that one dimensional attack wont cut it with Rex Ryan and a very good New York Jets defense. On Offense, Mark Sanchez struggled last week against the Vikings, but may have a better day against a Broncos defense that I think is feeling the strain already this year. Jets win. Oakland Raiders @ San Francisco 49ers: Nasty game. Local rivalry between two bad teams. The 49ers (much to my dismay) have been the epitome of a team that kills itself. They just seem to lack that killer edge. On both offense and defense they have the players, but just cant seem to bring it all together. The Raiders aren't up to that level yet, but they've improved from last year. Their problem seems to be that while one piece of their team has a great game, two or three other pieces routinely fall apart. Last week their special teams were enough to do the job. I really badly want to take the 49ers in a game they should win handily, but I just don't trust them. Raiders win. Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings: Again, do I really have to pick a winner? Really? Damn it. The Cowboys are like a mirror image of the 49ers (or vice versa.... chortle, chortle). Both teams are pretty well off when it comes to good players, but both seem to be part of a deep conspiracy to defraud their fans of anything to cheer for. Not that the Vikings are any better in this regard. Last years NFC Championship game runners up have delivered very little in what was otherwise an optimistic season. And I think they continue to disappoint. The Cowboys have the pass rush to get to and beat up Brett Favre. I'm not sure if the Vikings pass rush is up to the same level yet. Cowboys win. Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Redskins: I'm very sceptical still of the Redskins. I have no idea how they've won as many games as they have so far. And I have no idea why the Colts are struggling as much as they are. But for some reason people seem to be writing off the Colts now. Maybe I missed something, but I'm pretty sure the Colts beat the only undefeated team in the league last week? The Chiefs defense has played very well, so it was understandable that the Colts found the going a little rougher than usual. But I still have faith. I think Manning might be ready to unleash some frustration on Washington this week. Colts win. Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars: Ah, a battle of inconsistents to finish off. So which Titans team will we see? The Chris Johnson heavy Titans, or the "we think Vince Young can do it Titans"? And which Jacksonville will we see? The balanced, good play calling Jaguars with a good David Garrard? Or the "50 throws a game" bad David Garrard? It almost makes picking the game futile as I have no idea which teams will arrive at the party. That said, I know the Titans D will bring pressure and I'm taking that as the balance tipper. Titans win. So there we have it. Fourteen picks, all waiting to be decimated by uncooperative teams. The inconsiderate gits. Have a great day everyone.