Ah, finally found the time to sit down and finish this one off. Been quite hectic and had to do a bit of digging to try and get this right.
Basically I wanted to drag one last piece of life out of the 2014 draft. I've already done one piece looking at how various drafts for teams like the 49ers and Jets would work out if they had drafted using my personal big board and adjusted board. The problem with that is that I didn't have enough time or information to put together a proper adjusted board, one that realistically took into account projections of where certain players would be drafted based on the information that was widely available (a lot of which was subsequently proven quite accurate when taken as a whole and averaged out).
So I've now sat down and produced a new adjusted board. This started with me ranking the players based on my own opinions of them, then using the pre-draft "intelligence" available about where players were likely to have been drafted to re-order them, in order to avoid over drafting players who were likely to be picked much later.
The final short list is actually quite small, relatively speaking. I removed players who I had rated significantly lower than what their projected round was (based on a variety of pre-draft open sources) like Jadeveon Clowney, who everybody knew was going to go at least in the top five picks, but who I had lower down on my board. Clearly I also removed all the people that I wasn't that interested in.
What I paid most attention to was to try to avoid shaping the board based on knowledge of how the draft ultimately panned out. Luckily (in this case) I don't have a great memory so by simply avoiding a list of all the drafted players I was able to keep these pretty honest I think. Even those that I could remember roughly where they were drafted, like Stanley Jean-Baptiste, were kept on the list despite the fact I now knew they would be drafted before I ever got round to it using my board.
I also took care not to use this hindsight knowledge of the draft to bias rankings of players that I liked. Take Michael Sam for example. We now know that he went in the seventh round, right near the end. Based on pre-draft projections it was obvious Sam wasn't going to go until this late, but I also know that if I had been a GM I would not have taken the chance of waiting all the way till the seventh round. I would have listed him in the fifth (and been biting my nails from the fourth onwards).
Now I did all this because I want to show you the board that I honestly suspect I would have produced had I been a GM, as opposed to my current capacity as a blogger who only just managed to squeeze out all his draft notes in time. The reason I think this is interesting is because if you go back and compare it to my big board and adjusted board that I produced basically on draft day, I think it gives you a good insight into how teams work through the process of putting together their draft plans and how their boards evolve, from a basic big board to one that is roughly round adjusted (based on early information), to one that is much more refined based on a variety of sources.
If we were to go even further - and I really don't have time to do this - the next stage would be to go back and re-watch the film of all the people on this "refined board" to get a much better idea about where to place them. For example from memory and looking at my notes I was quite high on Kevin Norwood, so it's possible that having watched some his games a second time and compared him to other players that he might have moved up even further (or down, if I thought my initial instinct was wrong).
So without further ado here is the "refined board":
Round One:
Jeremiah Attaochu, Outside Linebacker, Georgia Tech,
Dee Ford, Defensive End, Auburn,
Zach Martin, Offensive Tackle, Notre Dame,
Aaron Donald, Defensive Tackle, Pittsburgh,
Anthony Barr, Outside Linebacker, UCLA,
Odell Beckham Jr, Wide Receiver, LSU,
Marqise Lee, Wide Receiver, USC,
Greg Robinson, Offensive Tackle, Auburn,
Taylor Lewan, Offensive Tackle, Michigan,
Xavier Su'a-Filo, Guard, UCLA,
Round Two:
Gabe Jackson, Guard, Mississippi State,
Jordan Matthews, Wide Receiver, Vanderbilt,
Jarvis Landry, Wide Receiver, LSU,
Round Three:
A.J. McCarron, Quarterback, Alabama,
Cassius Marsh, Defensive End, UCLA,
Jared Abbrederis, Wide Receiver, Wisconsin,
Kevin Norwood, Wide Receiver, Alabama,
Chris Borland, Inside Linebacker, Wisconsin,
Chris Watt, Guard, Notre Dame,
Tom Savage, Quarterback, Pittsburgh,
Marcus Martin, Center, USC
Kyle Van Noy, Outside Linebacker, BYU,
Allen Robinson, Wide Receiver, Penn State,
Stanley Jean-Baptiste, Cornerback, Nebraska
Keith McGill, Cornerback, Utah,
Round Four:
Shane Skov, Inside Linebacker, Stanford,
Trai Turner, Guard, LSU,
Cyril Richardson, Guard, Baylor,
Michael Schofield, Offensive Tackle, Michigan,
David Yankey, Guard, Stanford,
Paul Richardson, Wide Receiver, Colorado,
C.J. Fiedorowicz, Tight End, Iowa,
Terrence Brooks, Safety, Florida State,
Scott Crichton, Defensive End, Oregon State,
Chris Smith, Defensive End, Arkansas,
Bruce Ellington, Wide Receiver, South Carolina
Dezmen Southward, Safety, Wisconsin,
Round Five:
Michael Sam, Defensive End, Missouri,
Kelcy Quarles, Defensive Tackle, South Carolina,
Deandre Coleman, Defensive Tackle, California,
Adrian Hubbard, Outside Linebacker, Alabama,
Brandon Coleman, Wide Receiver, Rutgers,
Mike Davis, Wide Receiver, Texas,
Rashaad Reynolds, Cornerback, Oregon State,
Devin Street, Wide Receiver, Pittsburgh,
Round Six:
Corey Linsley, Center, Ohio State,
George Uko, Defensive Tackle, USC,
Craig Loston, Safety, LSU,
Jeoffrey Pagan, Defensive End, Alabama,
Round Seven:
Jeff Mathews, Quarterback, Cornell,
David Fales, Quarterback, San Jose State,
Andrew Norwell, Guard, Ohio State,
Jonotthan Harrison, Center, Florida,
Eddie Lackey, Inside Linebacker, Baylor,
Demonte McAllister, Defensive Tackle, Florida State,
Cody Hoffman, Wide Receiver, BYU,
Devekeyan Lattimore, Inside Linebacker, South Florida,
Undrafted Targets:
Isaiah Crowell, Running Back, Alabama State,
Brandon Thomas, Offensive Tackle, Clemson,
Kaleb Ramsey, Defensive Tackle, Boston College,
Brock Jensen, Quarterback, North Dakota,
George Atkinson III, Running Back, Notre Dame,
Connor Shaw, Quarterback, South Carolina,
Roderick McDowell, Running Back, Clemson,
Kassim Edebali, Defensive End, Boston College,
Ben Gardner, Defensive End, Stanford,
Chase Rettig, Quarterback, Boston,
Henry Josey, Running Back, Missouri,
Damien Williams, Running Back, Oklahoma,
Jalen Saunders, Wide Receiver, Oklahoma,
Isaiah Lewis, Safety, Michigan State,
Vinnie Sunseri, Safety/Running Back, Alabama,
John Urschel, Guard, Penn State,
C.J. Barnett, Safety, Ohio State,
Ryan Groy, Guard, Wisconsin,
Khalil Wilkes, Center, Stanford,
James Stone, Center, Tennessee,
Now with a "refined board" also comes the prospect that as a draft progressed you would be more careful about which players to select. Generally speaking I personally am a fan of the Best Player Available (BPA) process, but even I recognise that it has its limits. So for example if you already had a place holder quarterback on your roster (like a Matt Cassell or Christian Ponder in Minnesota) and then subsequently drafted someone like A.J. McCarron in the mid-rounds, would you really want to then use another late round pick to draft Jeff Mathews?
Well, one line of argument would say 'yes, if you think he's good enough to warrant it', but in all probability you would probably hedge your bets and take a non-quarterback pick in that later spot, then hope to snag him in free agency (congratulations to the Falcons for bagging Matt Ryan's future replacement). To illustrate this I thought I'd do another 'mock draft', where I use the refined board to draft for the Texans. I'll be using their picks, including adhering to the trades that they made.
Round One: Dee Ford, Defensive End, Auburn,
For the first pick then I'd go with Dee Ford instead of Clowney. But why not Attaochu? Well, Attaochu was a consensus second round grade using all the available sources, sources that proved correct ultimately. While a risk would have existed that Attaochu would go in the first, it would have been unusual. As the Texans GM you would have had to have thought that he would be there for you still with the 33rd pick, which is effectively as good as a late first rounder.
Round Two: Marqise Lee, Wide Receiver, USC,
Dun, dun, duhhhhhh! What's this, Chris deviating from the board again? In a word, yes. If Lee had come off the board by this point (which he really should have) then it would have been Attaochu all the way, no question. But at the same time you have to think that you already have guys like J.J. Watt and Brooks Reed as pass rushers, and in the first round you just added Dee Ford. The board might say 'Attaochu' ahead of 'Lee', but the strength of the pass rush and the prospect of having Lee opposite Andre Johnson can't be ignored.
As Su'a-Filo was drafted here in reality and Lee went to Jaguars not long after, we'll say for the sake of this hypothetical that the Jags took the UCLA guard and remove him from the board.
Round Three: A.J. McCarron, Quarterback, Alabama,
Huh! Another deviation from the board! Yes, I'm afraid so. As I've mentioned before, normally the difference between two players is difficult to assess. What makes the guy number 20 on your list better than the guy at 21 for example? In this case it was a choice between Gabe Jackson, an excellent guard, or A.J. McCarron, someone who I believe can develop into a franchise quarterback. If drafting for the Texans then it would have to have been McCarron, who as it turns out wouldn't have been drafted until two rounds later in reality, but who was broadly projected as a third round guy.
At this spot the Texans actually took C.J. Fiedorowicz, who for the sake of this hypothetical we'll remove.
Round Three (83): Cassius Marsh, Defensive End, UCLA,
Houston traded up to get into this spot, something I'm absolutely not a fan of because I think there's no player who is good enough to warrant giving away two picks for. But as we're Houston, here we are, and we take Cassius Marsh, the BPA. This makes up for missing out on Attaochu I guess. I think this would have been a tough pick to consider though as Jared Abbrederis, Kevin Norwood and Chris Watt would all have been available here as well.
Luckily in reality the Texans picked Nix, who isn't on my list. And if there hadn't been a trade it would have meant picking Marsh at the start of the fourth before Seattle anyway.
Round Four: Jared Abbrederis, Wide Receiver, Wisconsin,
Seattle may have pinched Norwood towards the end of the fourth, but Abbrederis was still waiting. Having already taken Lee in the second you might be tempted to take someone lower on the list at a different position, but I think here Abbrederis would represent too much value to let go. The Texans actually took Savage at this position, who we'll remove from the list.
Round Six: Michael Sam, Defensive End, Missouri,
Although Skov and Brooks are listed higher, that's only because of the round adjustments. Sam - on the big board - is the BPA at this point. And that's by quite a long way. The only question is whether in this hypothetical world we're sticking with the Texans 3-4 defense or if I can switch to my preferred defense, the 4-3. Still, another quality pass rusher, though by now it might look a bit excessive with Marsh and Ford as well. But Sam is too good to pass up in my estimation.
The Texans actual pick, Jeoffrey Pagan, is removed from the list.
Rounds Six (181): Shane Skov, Inside Linebacker, Stanford,
The perfect accompaniment to Brian Cushing on the inside I feel. And a sweet Mohawk. The Texans actual pick, Alfred Blue, is not on this list.
Round Six (211): Kelcy Quarles, Defensive Tackle, South Carolina,
We've already pinched some outside rushers, so time to add on an inside rusher. Quarles could probably play nose tackle if, in this hypothetical world, we're sticking with the 3-4, or he could be an end. Either way, not a bad pick up.
Round Seven: Andrew Norwell, Guard, Ohio State,
At this point there was no contest. I think Norwell is a quality guard and rather than waiting and taking a shot on free agency I'd rather have been sure and scooped him up with this seventh round pick.
Round Seven (256): Rashaad Reynolds, Cornerback, Oregon State,
Plenty of possible choices here but I think I would have gone corner at this spot, a position that I hadn't touched previously, and made Reynolds Mr. Irrelevant. Looking at who else is left on the list it would have meant double or triple dipping at another position, which seems excessive with Reynolds available. I'd have been mighty tempted to take Jeff Mathews I think, but having taken McCarron already I think it would be better long term for the franchise. If I hadn't already got Skov I might otherwise have gone for Eddie Lackey.
Priority Free Agent Targets:
Jeff Mathews, Quarterback, Cornell,
Mike Davis, Wide Receiver, Texas,
Deandre Coleman, Defensive Tackle, California,
Adrian Hubbard, Outside Linebacker, Alabama,
Isaiah Crowell, Running Back, Alabama State,
George Uko, Defensive Tackle, USC,
Brandon Coleman, Wide Receiver, Rutgers,
Jonotthan Harrison, Center, Florida,
Eddie Lackey, Inside Linebacker, Baylor,
Craig Loston, Safety, LSU,
Demonte McAllister, Defensive Tackle, Florida State,
Cody Hoffman, Wide Receiver, BYU,
Devekeyan Lattimore, Inside Linebacker, South Florida,
Brandon Thomas, Offensive Tackle, Clemson,
George Atkinson III, Running Back, Notre Dame,
Isaiah Lewis, Safety, Michigan State,
Other Free Agent Targets:
Brock Jensen, Quarterback, North Dakota,
Connor Shaw, Quarterback, South Carolina,
Roderick McDowell, Running Back, Clemson,
Kassim Edebali, Defensive End, Boston College,
Chase Rettig, Quarterback, Boston,
Henry Josey, Running Back, Missouri,
Damien Williams, Running Back, Oklahoma,
C.J. Barnett, Safety, Ohio State,
Ryan Groy, Guard, Wisconsin,
Khalil Wilkes, Center, Stanford,
James Stone, Center, Tennessee,
Clearly with those free agents you wouldn't go out and try to get all three quarterbacks. You'd go Mathews first and then Jensen etc. So after seven rounds and several months of watching videos, calling peoples high school coaches and travelling all across the US, the final draft haul for the Texans would have looked something like this:
- Dee Ford, Defensive End, Auburn,
- Marqise Lee, Wide Receiver, USC,
- A.J. McCarron, Quarterback, Alabama,
- Cassius Marsh, Defensive End, UCLA,
- Jared Abbrederis, Wide Receiver, Wisconsin,
- Michael Sam, Defensive End, Missouri,
- Shane Skov, Inside Linebacker, Stanford,
- Kelcy Quarles, Defensive Tackle, South Carolina,
- Andrew Norwell, Guard, Ohio State,
- Rashaad Reynolds, Cornerback, Oregon State,
Which after all that messing about to create the 'refined board' looks annoyingly similar to the draft haul that I produced for both the Jets and 49ers using my adjusted board! The difference at the start is quite significant though. And honestly speaking, I'd be pretty happy with that draft.
Right, that's definitely it when it comes to draft boards and the like. Next up I want to get back into doing some diagrams and the like, perhaps a basics series for the offseason to help better explain a lot of the terminology that I end up using that some fans may not be familiar with.
