Dipping a foote into free agency

-- Free agency news to begin with. Well I say news, what I really mean is a mild ripple in the grand pond that is free agency. Larry Foote, formerly of the Lions, has now signed with the Steelers. It's hardly an earth shattering move for Pittsburgh, but as far as the Lions are concerned, I actually think it's a blow to a defense that needs all the help it can get. -- Caught some of NFL Total Access and Jamie Dukes' comments about Seattle Seahawks Head Coach/GM Pete Carroll (a.k.a the worlds greatest Bill Walsh look-a-like). Basically the gist of what Dukes was saying is that if Carroll fails in his role with the Seahawks, especially given that they have two first round picks this year, then that should serve as a warning to the rest of the league to never hire a Head Coach from College football ever again. It has to be said, sometimes Jamie Dukes can be clever, insightful, and forthright in his views. And in some cases, like this one, he can be a complete dumba$$. Are you really telling me that if Pete Carroll fails then that should put a black mark against all those other good coaches out there? And who will fill the Head Coach roles in the NFL instead? Guys like Eric Mangini, a.k.a 'The Man Genius', a.k.a the most over rated coach in the NFL today? Or Josh "I used to work for Belichick.... and that's my resume" McDaniels. The same coach whose first actions upon entering his new job where to ship out the franchise QB and then badly mishandle the teams best receiver, followed by the recent firing of Defensive Co-ordinator Mike Nolan who turned around the Broncos defense from bottom 10 to top 10 in one season? Honestly, if those two are indicative of the caliber of future Head Coaches that will be drawn from inside the NFL, then really the league needs all the College coaches it can get its hands on!! Ten teams in particular that need help are the ten teams picking in the top ten of the draft. Not so much in coaching terms as.... everything terms. But which team will see the quickest and/or most lasting turnaround? That's a good question, so let's have a quick look: - St. Louis Rams; Pick first this year and are basically in good shape no matter where they go with this one. It's either going to be Sam Bradford who the team will look to make their franchise QB, or it'll be Ndamukong Suh, who will make a big difference on a dodgy defense. The Rams still have a ways to go yet though. In HC Steve Spagnuolo they have a solid coach with experience of being on a Superbowl winning team. The trouble is they are almost devoid of playmaking talent on both sides of the ball. Lots of work to do means the Rams will probably be picking in the top ten again next year. The best thing in their favour is the fact they play in the weak NFC West. - Detroit Lions; Like the Rams, the Lions have a HC experienced in defensive football and with a track record of being on successful teams (for the most part). They're guaranteed to get either Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy with their second pick overall this year, and have made moves in free agency to strengthen their team defensively, picking up DE Kyle Vanden Bosch for example. They have their franchise QB in Matthew Stafford, a great WR in Calvin Johnson and a promising TE in Brandon Pettigrew. Even an average draft this year could see the Lions plucked from the depths of mediocrity and on the road to sustained competitiveness. It's unfortunate that the Vikings and Packers are just starting to find another gear at the same time, though I'm sure they'll be pleased to know that I think the Bears are just about to hit the self destruct button. - Tampa Bay Buccaneers; Is Josh Freeman the future of the franchise? I'm not convinced yet. At least Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez both showed a lot of upside in terms of their mentality last season. Is Freeman really that kind of locker room leader? And their team, is not exactly built to go on a sustained run of victories right now. Chances are they might get one of either Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy with their third overall selection, depending on how the Rams draft, but they need way more help than that. Coupled with their young coach Raheem Morris, who hardly has a glittering resume behind him, I predict bad things for the Bucs'. Very bad things. Could take them another three seasons to get fixed. - Washington Redskins; There are two ways of looking at HC Mike Shanahan. Number one is a genius of offense, who took Bill Walshs' Offensive scheme and crafted the definitive 90's version of it in, winning a Superbowl as an offensive coordinator and two more as the Broncos Head Coach. Or you can look at him as the guy that inherited Steve Young, Jerry Rice, Brent Jones, William Floyd and Ricky Watters, among others, while in San Francisco before going on to inherit John Elway at the Broncos, whose retirement signalled the start of an eight year playoff victory drought for Shanahan. Either way, he needs a QB, as the situation with Jason Campbell has got to the stage of biblical proportions of awkwardness, with Campbell clearly not wanted in Washington (despite not really doing a whole lot wrong). The Redskins do have the benefit of a strong defense that ranks highly in all categories. But their offense is appallingly bad, and it'll take more than Larry Johnson to fix that. I think the Redskins may actually get worse before they get any better. - Kansas City Chiefs; HC Todd Haley recently had command of a Superbowl quality offense and used it to good (though not quite good enough) effect. He has a reputation as being a no-nonsense type of guy who leads, shall we say, vigorously. With GM Scott Pioli on board as well, the Chiefs are strong at the top. And this off season they've already made themselves stronger, bringing in Charlie Weis as offensive coordinator to take some of the pressure off Todd Haley as a signal caller and Romeo Crennel to run the defense. Add Thomas Jones, probably the best back available in Free Agency, and things are starting to shape up nicely for them. It's still a little up in the air as to where the Chiefs will go with their first round pick and they have a few needs, but overall the Chiefs should be looking to make a strong challenge for the division title in the next two seasons. Watch this space. - Seattle Seahawks; Their QB is getting suspect of late, they lack a standout playmaker on offense, and they have no defense to speak of. They've got the luxury of two first round picks in this years draft and they need them. I feel sorry for HC Pete Carroll. He's basically just taken over a franchise on the brink of a serious nosedive. It's going to take something special just to set the ship on the right course, let alone getting back into contention for the division title. I certainly don't share Jamie Dukes' belief that the Seahawks can just bounce back in one or two seasons. Three maybe? It depends how their draft goes this year. - Cleveland Browns; While the decision to go with Jake Delhomme this season does smack of pure stupidity, there may be a reason behind all this offseason QB shuffling. I get the feeling Holmgren has his eye on Eric Manginis' job and is paving the way to build his future offense. Dumping Anderson and Quinn while bringing in two veteran QBs who understand his system makes me think that Holmgren is going to dip into the draft for a QB, maybe in the first round but possibly in the second. Delhomme and Wallace will carry the offense for now while Holmgren spends the season grooming his QB of the future, whomever that may be, possibly Tim Tebow. The other thing to consider is that the Browns have a young receiving corps, a great playmaker in Josh Cribbs, and by my count they now have 12 draft picks this year, including three in the third round and four in the fifth round. All that adds up to a potentially very bright future for the Browns. Maybe not this year but probably in the next they will be pushing the other teams in their division for the title and may even make it to their first ever Superbowl in the next three seasons. - Oakland Raiders; Years of mis-management and over priced contracts have basically hamstrung the Raiders for the foreseeable future. Their tendency to take players in the draft based on their combine measurables and athletic performance doesn't help either. Without a major change, I wouldn't be surprised if the Raiders are still picking in the top 10 for the next ten years. - Buffalo Bills; The only redeeming feature of the Bills compared to the Raiders is their lower wage bill. The last few years have been spent ditching basically every good asset they have. Safety Jarius Byrd offers the Bills a small glimmer of hope, but it's looking pretty dim in the skies over Buffalo. It's tough being a small market team, but it is possible to survive. What's needed however, desperately, is some success. Can new HC Chan Gailey provide that? There are some serious question marks. The Bills are offensively just a joke and their division has been getting progressively tougher over the last 12 months. Expect them to struggle mightily this season and I fear this franchise may move or even collapse before they ever fix their many woes. - Jacksonville Jaguars; It's been long enough now for the Jaguars to realise that the immediate future of their franchise lies with number 32, Maurice Jones-Drew. One of my biggest gripes last season was their under-utilization of this valuable asset (as well as not using capable back up Rashad Jennings enough). The Jaguars are an odd team in that they could really swing one of two ways. If they draft well and free agent acquisition DE Aaron Kampman can stay healthy, then they good finally make a run for a wildcard spot at the very least. But if Kampman struggles to stay fit, they don't upgrade that D and they fail to give Jones-Drew the carries he needs, the Jaguars could slump even further next season and end up picking in the top five. Their sagging revenue from a beleaguered fan base doesn't help either. And that, as they say, is that. For now at least. Hopefully I'll see you tomorrow and don't forget, if you enjoy the blog, be sure to spread the word around. Have a nice day.

Cheque this out

-- Let's kick it off with some Free Agency news. LaDanian Tomlinson has found a new team. The New York Jets have scooped Tomlinson off of the Free Agent mire and look to place him on their roster as mainly a third down back. And I don't get it. I understand the money thing, you didn't want to pay Thomas Jones. That doesn't stop you (to the best of my limited knowledge) from releasing him and then offering him a more palatable contract. And really, when you think about it, you've essentially just traded a 1,400 yard rusher for a 3rd down back. I know the focus is on Shonne Greene now, but he's young and was doing fine coming fresh off the bench to spell for Thomas. Ever heard of the phrase 'if it aint broke, don't fix it'? -- On the other hand, if it is broke, then do fix it. Fix it now. Like uhm... the Browns entire franchise. The Browns have unveiled their latest master stroke; trading QB Brady Quinn to the Broncos in return for young FB Peyton Hills and a sixth round pick in 2011. It's believed there is also a conditional pick that may change hands in the future. All I can say is, Peyton Hills had better be some kind of diamond in the rough. I know Quinn hasn't exactly coated himself in glory lately, but neither have the two QB brought in to replace Quinn. Seneca Wallace has been solid, but on a team with much better receivers (and when the Seahawks are described as having 'much better receivers' than you, you know things are dire). Meanwhile Jake Delhomme, who had no lesser a receiver than Steve Smith at his disposal, has been nothing short of a pick machine over the last two seasons. God knows what the Browns are hoping will happen. Their draft had better be something special to behold. -- The Lions have parted ways with their seventh round pick in the 2011 draft in order to acquire a backup QB for Matthew Stafford. And it comes in the form of Shaun Hill, from the 49ers. Guys, you're welcome to him. -- Chargers backup QB Charlie Whitehurst (exactly, who?) is being assessed as a possible candidate by both the Cardinals and the Seahawks. Whitehurst is a restricted free agent with a third round tender, so the Chargers have up to seven days to match any offer he signs with a potential suitor. If the Chargers decline, they will be due a third round pick from the team that signs him, unless the two sides can negotiate something else, such as a guaranteed later round pick plus another, conditional, late round pick. And so we move on, and now I try to convince you that paying high ticket prices and beer prices is good for you. Because it is. This seems on the face of it a stupid thing to say. How can paying more for tickets, beer and hotdogs possibly be in the best interests of the fans, short of perhaps generating some extra cash for free agency? Well, the answer is simple; it means everybody gets a turn. If I opened a brand new franchise and sold tickets to my 100,000 seater stadium for a dollar each, then in about 10 minutes I'm pretty sure I could sell all 100,000. The trouble is, how do I stop those same 100,000 people coming back next week, and the week after, and the week after, and leaving other fans in the lurch. I could setup a waiting list, but how long would each person have to wait? Two years, three? What if someone signs up to the list under multiple names and nabs tickets that way? Simply put, high ticket prices and high concessions prices make football a treat. A day out with the family to watch a football game can be expensive (to put it mildly), so it's typically not something you're going to be doing eight times a season. That means there are tickets spare for others to come and enjoy the game. Everyone gets a go. Everyone gets a chance to take their kid to watch the local franchise and enjoy a live game. In turn, this generates more interest in the club over the long term. More people in a city go to watch games, become fans, and generate interest in the team over the long haul. Everyones a winner! And now I'm going to be even more bold and play advocate for the corporate boxes that spring up everywhere. People complain that these boxes take seats from real fans and that owners are too obsessed with them. But let's get one thing straight here; boxes make huge sums of cash. A box can go for as much $250,000 per season. Just 100 boxes can therefore generate $25,000,000 which goes into the teams pockets. That's almost as much money as the Packers generated in total profit last season. Why is this important? Number 1, that money can be spent in free agency, contract renewals etc, and number 2, if the club makes a healthy profit the owner is more likely to stick around for a prolonged period of time without even considering the possibility of selling up and moving on. That way, your local team stays local and you wont find yourself cheering on your childhood team from the other side of the country. Again, everyones a winner! Including me, as I can now go and relax with a large glass of Amaretto. See you tomorrow.

Giving it the thumbs up.

So there's been all of one grand move in free agency today. Jake Delhomme, the much maligned QB formerly of the Carolina Panthers has been picked up by the Cleveland Browns. The fact that this makes the Browns a better team is..... scary. More so if you're a Browns fan. But something even more interesting (to me at least) happened today. I decided to take my new Wilson NFL Tackified Composite Ball (which I can't recommend highly enough!) out for a test run with a friend who, to be generous, can't throw for %£$@. But at first I didn't get it. I walked him through all the motions, everything, and he seemed to be getting it all down and in place, but he was still throwing what could best be described as a Power sliding pass. I just could not figure it out. So I stood next to him and had him grip the ball. Then I showed him my grip. Then looked at his again. And Vice Versa. And then something clicked. Just for one last time I asked him to hold the ball, then compared it to my own grip. And then I was sure. I made one very minor adjustment to his grip, stood back, and watched a nice(ish) spiral come flying towards me. And all I did, was move his thumb down a little. And it struck me as odd. How often do you ever hear a coach talk about the placement of the thumb, other than just a cursory word or two about it? And yet it has such an important part to play in how the ball is gripped, how power is delivered into the ball and how you are able to move your wrist, both during and just after the throw. I really was stunned at just how minor this change was and yet how much of an effect it had on his throw. All that was happening was his thumb was too close to the tip, so as the ball came over the top, the tendency was for his hand to come over the top slightly palm forward and end up pushing the ball away like a shot putter as opposed to being slung away gracefully as if from a sling. All that was required to remedy the situation was to lower his thumb a little so that there was a distinct Ninety or so degree angle between the thumb and the index finger. And it got me wondering, how many others suffer the same problem purely because of this? Just remember, next time you see a ball leaving someones hand sideways, think about the thumbs!! Nice short one today. But tomorrow I'll take on the unenviable task of trying to convince you that expensive tickets, beer and programs are all in your own interest. Have a nice day everyone.

It might work. Might.

Right, there's been some moving and shaking in Free Agency today, not a lot, but let's see what's been happening: -- LaDanian Tomlinson spent the day visiting the Jets and has apparently extended that visit overnight, which could suggest that a deal is being drawn up. The Jets need another RB in some form to back up Shonne Greene as Leon Washington is still recovering from a broken leg suffered last year and it's not sure when he'll return. Now this move doesn't make sense to me. I appreciate that Thomas Jones was going to be due a sizable roster bonus, but is LaDanian Tomlinson really going to come in much cheaper? They will save a few million, but the question is will Tomlinson make up for that saving with yards? He's still got a lot to give and behind that O-line he may even come back with a 1,000 yard season, but that's a big may for a team that runs the ball as much as the Jets. -- Hank Baskett spent last season with the Colts and now he's headed back to the Eagles, having accumulated the grand total of 4 catches for 28 yards in Indy. -- Veteran CB Roderick Hood has finally agreed a deal to return him to the Titans for next season. The Titans suffered early last year when much of their starting secondary went down injured before the first game. -- The Browns have finally made a move worth shouting about. A few years ago they made a run for the playoffs based largely on the play of WR Braylon Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow II. Well they lost both players, but now they're headed back in the right direction with the signing of TE Ben Watson from New England. It's a start for the Browns, but they still have a long way to go. -- San Diego have made a move to replace Antonio Cromartie at CB, who signed with the Jets, by signing former Jets CB Donald Strickland. And so the merry go round continues.... -- Larry Johnson has found a home for next season, backing up Redskins RB Clinton Portis. Not a bad move if you ask me. The biggest problem the 'Skins had last season on offense was trying to get their running game going, with Portis looking laboured at times. Maybe the introduction of Johnson will finally give them a chance to get some push on the ground. But again, that's a big maybe. -- Green Bay have finally locked up NT Ryan Pickett with a new deal. Pickett was a key component in the center of the Packers new 3-4 defense last season. Well, that's pretty much that. Thanks for dropping by and I'll see you all tomorrow. Have a great day.

Restrain yourselves!!

So, what's been happening in Free Agency today? Let's have a look: -- Erm, nothing, zero, zilch. Oh dear. In that case, now is as good a time as any to investigate a mystery that's probably been bugging some of you for the last few days.... while others, probably don't care. What does Belichicks decision to go for it on 4th and 2 against the Colts have to do with Temporary Restraining Orders? Well, I'll tell you. If you don't own a copy, go out and buy Gavin De Beckers book "The Gift of Fear". Buy a copy for your wife or girlfriend as well. Buy a copy for any brothers and sisters you have. Buy a copy for any sons and daughters you have (I mean it). If you have enough spare change, buy this book for everybody you can and tell the rest that it's a must read. I don't want to dwell too much on the book, but to give you a brief summary, De Becker is an expert in security and details in this book many of the main topics he's encountered through his career, sharing his insight as to how his company deals with various situations and persons, from stalkers to violent children to lovers that won't let go, and even mentions assassins. Becker demonstrates the difference between fear and worry and covers so many other interesting topics. A must read. And thus we come to the bizarre correlation between the Head Coach of the New England Patriots, Game Theory, and a court order used to ward off the unwanted attention of a fan/girlfriend/boyfriend/husband/wife etc. So to start what is rapidly becoming a muddle in my mind, basically a temporary restraining order is a court order used to restrict the access of one individual to another, usually setting limits on distance, time, places etc. And as we find out in De Beckers book, they generally do one of two things: 1) Serve the purpose for which they were intended, admirably. 2) Make a bad situation much worse. The key factor is to look at the history of the person being placed under the order. Normally harmless, law abiding individuals will tend to get the message and cease their previously relentless pursuit. Those with a past history of violence and threats to use violence will likely be pushed over the edge by the order, now feeling that the target of their unwanted attention and pursuit has won a victory over them and that they have no other options left on the table. Still with me? Ok, so why is this important? Because it affects the ways we look at statistics. We can call up some arbitrary number (being that I lack the actual numbers in front of me) and say that every year there are (X) amount of restraining orders issued and that in (Y) number of cases, the restraining order makes the situation worse and ends with the death of the victim of the pursuit. From this, you could quite easily say that, therefore, if you take out a restraining order against someone, the percentage chance that they will end up trying to kill you is (Z) or something like 1 in ABC chance of it happening. But the reality is that we know with quite a high degree of accuracy and consistency who will become violent and who wont. We can look at past form and analyse any number of variables to give a person a good idea of whether the case will be successful or not. Generalised percentages are of no use here. And now we come to the Belichick part. After his now much maligned decision we were informed repeatedly that the percentages were in his favour. I heard everything ranging from 65% (the most consistent number) all the way up to 80% (god knows how someone came to that conclusion). People went statistics crazy, trying to transpose all kinds of numbers onto the situation. The only one percentage I didn't actually hear was 50%, which was the actual Patriots record on fourth downs that season prior to that attempt. All of this is a prime example of trying to impose arbitrary numbers and percentages onto a situation that has many variables to it. In the same way that we can look at whether a restraining order is a good idea and assess all the variables involved without having to lump everybodies case into some fictitious percentage, we can also look at thing like fourth downs and make decisions without having to rely on calculators. We can look at the Patriots previous track record on fourth downs that season (many people were looking at the Patriots under Belichick, The Patriots with Brady etc, anything except the Patriots that season with that personnel), we can look at the Colts ability to stop on 4th down, we can look at how well the Patriots special teams had performed against the Colts special teams and we can look at the Patriots defense versus the Colts offense (many people glossed over the fact that the Colts last drive ended with a score only after a huge chunk of yards were gained on a highly dubious pass interference call and that on the drive prior to that, King Manning threw a pick). I think too readily now, coaches seem to be turning to percentages and people with degrees in applied Mathematics to make decisions for them, instead of trusting their gut instincts and looking at the facts that actually present themselves. Would the Maths people who were so confident in Brady still be as confident if they were facing the Steelers, who had a near 80% success rate at stopping offenses on 4th down (to that point in the season)? Or would we still be lead to believe that Brady was 65% all the way? You cant safely dish out a Temporary Restraining Order without first looking at and understanding the facts of the individual case and neither, I propose, can you go for it on 4th down without first looking at and understanding the facts of the game in hand. Hopefully that's all clear now. If not, feel free to let me know in the comments section below. But for now, thanks for your time and at some point over the weekend I'd like to convince you that those high ticket prices you pay to see games and the expensive beer you're forced to buy at the game is all for your own good. Have a nice day.

"If I was the 49ers Head Honcho...."

-- Antonio Bryant, who I've been harping on about for days now, has finally found a home in Cincinnati. It's a good fit for the Bengals, who desperately needed someone who defenses would have to scheme for to take some of the coverage away from Chad Ochocinco. But the deal is what concerns me. I like Bryant. He makes tough catches, has great hands and is good after the catch. But a 4 year deal worth $28 million dollars? That's $7 million per year. I'm not sure if I want to chew that much cap for a number 2 guy. -- Kevin Faulk will return once again to the New England Patriots. Brady must be sighing in relief knowing he's getting back one of the better hard runners and catchers to line up in the Patriots backfield in recent years. -- Jake Delhomme could find his stay in Free agency short as he's expected to meet with the Browns today (Thursday). -- Derrick Mason, the 9,000 year old WR will be coming back to Baltimore for another year at least. The Ravens receiving corps now looks much healthier than it did in the playoffs, with the addition of Anquan Boldin and Dante Stallworth to supplement Masons, errr, experience. -- Terrell Owens was very gracious in a tweet he left regarding the Bengals signing of Antonio Bryant. Further proof, along with his maturity in Buffalo last year, that Owens has made a concerted effort to solve some of the question marks people had over his character. On a more bizarre note, a friend of mine asked me this question: "if you were the 49ers Head Coach (& presumably GM), who would you take in free agency and the draft?" Well, sounds like a challenge to me..... So we're assuming that I'm the Head Coach and GM of the 49ers ('cos I'm a 49ers fan). Probably going to take control of the offense in this capacity and install something very similar to the Bill Walsh style offense. So first off, I'd be happy to stick with Alex Smith, who did a great job last season, and by all accounts young Nate Davis was impressive, so we'll keep him too, but I'm afraid Shaun Hill is for the chop, because we can't be having a QB controversy. In his place comes Jeff Garcia. I still rate Jeff, who's spent almost his entire professional career working in a similar offense. He knows the calls, understands the kind of plays and style that we'd be using and can help the entire offense learn the scheme quicker. I'm also pleased to have FB Britt Miller on board. Miller used to be a LB in college and converted for the Niners. He showed promise last preseason in running routes out of the backfield, a big part of this offense. So the clock ticks down to the start of Free agency and I grab myself a nice cup of coffee and sit by the phone waiting for the clock to strike midnight. As soon as it does..... I'm off home, because it means I've probably been at the office too long. On Sunday Night I come back to the phone at about 11:00-11:30pm, a fresh coffee in hand and still laughing my butt off at how much money the Bears paid Peppers. No I start dialing agents. But whose? Well, I fancy a number 2 wideout to go with Crabtree so Antonio Bryant is on the list. I could do with a backup to Frank Gore, someone who might be cheap and preferably is a good catcher, so Brian Westbrook is next. I need someone to bolster the pass rush so I give Joey Porter a ring. I need a corner to replace Dre Bly so I'm also going to bring in Leigh Bodden and finally to seal up the back end, I call Darren Sharper. Yes, Sharper. See, I know I was moaning the other day about Sharper, but that's purely because people are drooling over him like he's gods gift to defense. Meanwhile, I take a more objective view of the guy. I like his leadership skills, I think he can make a few plays (though I don't expect 9 picks out of him again) and his return skills with the ball in his hands make him an attractive prospect for occasional punt/kick return duties. I'm also going to give Ladell Betts a call. He's from a similar system and can catch. I might give Todd Yoder a call and see how he feels about backing up Vernon Davis. Again, he would be reasonably familiar with the system. I might offer a small deal to Artis Hicks, formerly a Viking (technically still), as again he roughly knows the system, and let's face it, we need O-linemen. Kevin Mawae gets a shout for a veteran minimum deal, probably would start and would bring vital experience and confidence to our line. I'd also test the water on Chester Pitts. Coming from Houston, again he might have a passing knowledge of our offense. Providing the price is right (and by that I mean, very low) I'd see what Jarvis Green of the Patriots was up to, maybe come in and give our D-line a bit of stability. With our suspicious D still needing a look, I'd see what Keith Bullucks price was, and also feel out a vet minimum deal to Bertrand Berry of the Cardinals, who if nothing else will give us a look at the Cards D (and I think he could give more). I also might give Tyrone Carter a call, again looking for a cheap deal as a backup. So that's my free agent list dealt with. I wouldn't be expecting to pay out huge deals to any of them (even in an uncapped year, you still have to consider the future), so some would probably fall though the net, but I'm not breaking the bank for any of this free agent class and to be honest, there's no one else out there that catches my eye, not for the type of system I was planning. Maybe if Willie Parker was willing to sign on a minimum deal and sit as a backup then that's maybe one more. So now we move to the draft. Oh boy. So we have two first round picks here at 13 and 17. I already know who I want at 17 and I know he'll be there. The question is 13. As you'd expect any self respecting offensive minded coach to do, I'm going to go offense here, and I badly need linemen. Probably looking at any one of: Russell Okung, Bryan Bulaga, Anthony Davis or Trent Williams, depending on who falls to you. So that's number 13 done, but who is this certain pick at 17? Mike Iupati. I know, I know, every draft board going has him rated as a late first, maybe early second round pick, but again, this is where that whole system thing comes in. I'm looking at Iupati and thinking that this guy blocks like a demon, so could help anchor either end of my line, and a lot of plays in the Walsh style system require double reads by the guard in pass protection, and I think Iupati has the agility to make that a reality. He makes my team so much better, he's worth going at number 17. After that? Mainly the picks will be defense minded. I could use another corner, another safety and another LB. Maybe feel out the market for defensive linemen. With Aubrayo Franklin coming back I don't need a NT really, but I could still use some youthful depth. Corner would probably be my priority in that second round, but we don't pick till 49 so it depends as I want to get some value out of it. The trouble with this stage is that even by number 49 you're not sure whose on the list and who isn't. Add to that the fact that most teams picking ahead of us could also do with a corner or safety in the second round, and it means our personnel people had better be red hot...... We'll that's me done for another day. Still intrigued as to what possible connection there could be between Temporary Restraining Orders and Belichicks' fateful 4th and 2 decision? I promise, Friday Night, all will be revealed. Maybe Saturday Morning. Until then, have a great day.

A bit drafty

So first off today we'll dip into the latest free agency moves, then it's time to talk draft boards!! -- Jim Sorgi, previously of the Colts, has now found a new home in New York. God help them. -- Derek Anderson has been released by the Browns and subsequently lashed out at fans in the Cleveland area, noting the fact that they cheered once when he had to be taken off injured. Even for football fans, that's pretty cruel. And Anderson wants his revenge, saying he'd like to sign with a team that will pass through Cleveland soon (if he stays with his next team he'll have to wait four years maximum) and that it would be satisfying to roll over the Browns. Sounds like someone is fired and ready for a return! Anderson really isn't that bad. The Browns last season were. He's not great, but he's better than Sorgi or Carr. Anderson was replaced by Seattle backup Seneca Wallace. -- DE Jarvis Green has been picked up by the Broncos in an effort to bolster their pass rush. By all accounts, Bill Belichick was hoping to get Green back, so it looks like the Patriots will have to dip into the draft somewhere to help their pass rush. -- RB Thomas Jones has gone to Kansas, and it's not to meet Dorothy. Instead he'll be meeting Jamaal Charles, who impressed last year when he stepped in to the full time role of running back after the departure of Larry Johnson. It remains to be seen how offensive co-ordinator Charlie Weis will handle this group, as his boss and former Arizona Cardinals offensive co-ordinator Todd Haley is more of a pass friendly person. Whichever way they go, Jones is a tough runner and will bring a lot of value to the Chiefs organisation. -- As for possible moves yet to come, the Bengals have finished interviewing Antonio Bryant and now turn to Terrell Owens, who will meet with the Bengals today. Current Bengals WR Chad Ochocinco has supposedly put pictures on his Twitter account featuring him and Owens, which comes on top of his very verbal recommendations for Owens to join the Bengals. Bryant is due to meet with the Redskins later this week. Meanwhile the Cardinals are apparently showing murmurs of interest in signing Derek Anderson, who as I mentioned earlier has been released from the Browns. If Anderson was signed he would likely duel it out in training camp with current Cardinals number one QB (by default) Matt Leinart. And last but not least, LaDanian Tomlinson appears to have caught the eye of the Vikings according to the Star Tribune. LT and AP? OMG! Right, the starter is done, now to the main course. Best Player available or Draft for needs? Lets have a look. Best Player Available: So the theory goes that you make a draft board ranking all the players in the draft from 1 to 256. When your pick comes up and you're on the clock it's simple; you look at your board and take the best player left on it. Honestly, I hate this method. Imagine if the Eagles ranked all the draft prospects in terms of pure ability and when they got to their first pick, they saw the name Tim Tebow or Dan LeFevour at the top. Are they really going to take ANOTHER QB? Doubt it. And there are added problems with this approach as well. If you're the Dallas Cowboys then right now you're pretty much solid on offense. I really can't think of a need you have. Defensively you're still very good, but you need a few pieces to become genuine Superbowl contenders. So what happens if the top 5 or so names on your list are all offensive guys? Do you really need another receiver? Another RB? Of course, things change completely when you look at the Lions and the Rams. Where are their needs? Uhm... everywhere! (see coach, I told you the Lions were in for a ripping). You name it and these teams need it, except maybe the Lions can pass on a top QB and the Rams can pass on a top RB. But other than that, they really have little other choice but to just keep grabbing whoever is at the top of their board. I think this is where BPA comes into it's own, as well as with teams that are at the opposite end of the scale and have everything covered (which this year, is no-one). I just think that BPA has a tendency to ignore your glaring weaknesses. For example, let's look at my very own 49ers. Last year we picked 10th and took Michael Crabtree who feel to us by extraordinary luck. But as great as Crabtree is, and he will be great, it means we left another Michael, Michael Oher, hanging on the board and who eventually went to the Ravens at 23 (which was a steal really). I'm not saying that Crabtree wont help us, but oh boy could we do with a new OT. Our O-line is bad and without a good line, it hampers the production of both your passing and rushing attack. Crabtree is an improvement, but Oher could have been a difference maker. Drafting for needs: So basically here we're looking for the biggest hole in our team and then we're going to plug it. Whatever comes up bad, we need a good player to fill it. We'll happily skip over a better overall player in terms of end production in order to get a player that will fill a gaping space in our roster, possibly even hitting that same position again later in the draft. This is all about building a team. If you've never read "The Blueprint: How the New England Patriots Beat the System to Create the Last Great NFL Superpower" by Christopher Price, then don't, because it's really just a history lesson on the Patriots by a Patriots fan. The information in this book about the Patriots strategy could probably be gleaned just from reading their wikipedia page. In fact, the whole book could probably be replaced with their Wikipedia page. But there was one thing about it that caught my eye, a quote apparently attributed to Head Coach Bill Belichick that "it's not about collecting talent, it's about building a team". It might have been the other way around, but you get the point. And that's what drafting for needs is about. It's about building a group of players who will collectively win a Superbowl. Can you imagine if the Cardinals pick comes up and they go for a WR? Steve Breaston and Early Doucet may not be the greatest in the league but they're enough to back up Larry Fitzgerald. I have to admit it's tempting, when you look at some of the players out there in free agency and in the draft, it's tempting to go out and build an all Pro-Bowl caliber lineup at one position, but it just isn't good business for a team. You've got to understand you can't bust all your cap at one position. You've got to think about that big picture. That's where picking for needs comes in. Even if you see a tempting target on the board, if you don't need it, don't take it. Look at the Seahawks last year in the draft. Picking number 4 they could have taken Sanchez and started to build for the future, but instead they went for LB Aaron Curry and filled a much more pressing need. Building a team not just a collection for good players. As I mentioned earlier I think the Cowboys have things wrapped up offensively now, so they have a great chance to go out and draft defense heavy and make a real splash in the franchises future, instead of just accumulating more talent on an otherwise already impressive offense. All that said, there are two things as well I think you need to keep in mind: -- Depth. Of the draft, specifically. Basically what we're talking about here is the same situation we had last year concerning RB. There are a ton of great backs to be had in the draft, and really, if you wait till the late second round or early to mid third round, then you can still find a great back. This is something that's always tricky to judge and affects the BPA type teams more than the drafting for needs teams. If you have a great all round team and just need a back to finish the process off, then why not go early. But if you're looking for the BPA and it's running back, then you're probably better off just holding on until the second round. -- The glove that fits. This is more of a case of player evaluation than the actual argument between BPA and needs. So many times I think teams just grab a player without considering where that guy is going to slot into your offense. The perfect example is Suh and McCoy. Personally I think Suh would better fit a 3-4 team while McCoy will better fit a 4-3. The difference is marginal admittedly, but it's worth considering. If you are a power running team, I don't think C.J. Spiller is really your guy. This is something Bill Walsh apparently excelled at, finding guys that fit what he wanted to do. So that's that for another day. Later in the week, maybe Thursday or Friday, I'm gonna try to convince you that there's a connection between Belichicks' infamous 4th down decision and Temporary Restraining Orders, and then hopefully over the weekend or maybe Monday, I'm gonna go one better and try to convince you that high ticket prices and high beer prices are good for Football fans. In addition of course I'll be checking out all the free agency news each day and giving my thoughts. Thanks for reading and have yourself a good day.

Just. "Woeful".

So as I took my daily wander around the web, I came to NFL.com and found their video section packed with clips of various players at the combine. And it never hurts to watch a bit more tape: -- Before we even get onto any players I want to mention the catching drill at the combine for the RBs. Basically they place two cones about 10 yards apart and have the backs start at one, run across to the other and catch a pass in the process (including tucking it away), then ditch the ball, turn and catch another going back, tuck it, ditch it, then catch a thrid ball and turn upfield and make a sprint for the finish. This drill, with maybe a few more catching reps, would be much better for the Receivers than that artifical piece of junk they do now where they're basically encouraged to catch balls and dump them straight away. -- And talking of the receivers, out of all the tape I watched, I saw two guys... two... among all those receivers who actually watched the ball into their hands properly. That's pretty bad. -- There was also something surprising which I never picked up the first time and that's the amount of guys who, on the vertical jump, were rocking back on their heels and then starting their motion from there. What they ended up doing was using a lot of energy and momentum built up with their arms to simply push their toes into the ground. Needless to say, those that didn't posted disappointing vertical leaps. -- Finally onto some players. There'll be a lot of RB on this list because I catch much of their workouts during the Combine, so this is the first time I've had a chance to see some of them. And we start with Stafon Johnson, who displayed some great footwork, excellent cutting ability; was really quick on the turns and put a lot of effort into the drills, finishing all of the hard. -- RB Joique Bell next. Did nothing of real note during the drills but I had to mention him for no other reason than his awesomely bizarre shout at the end of the 40 yard dash. It was like halfway between a 'woo' and a 'damn it'. Just odd. -- RB LeGarrette Blout. I have one word written down here and it reads "woeful". -- WR Carlton Mitchell. Impressed with the way he watched the ball into his hands, had good fundamental technique and some great breaks on his routes. -- RB Anthony Dixon. Another guy who showed great determination, some real hard running and again, excellent footwork, nice cuts. -- RB Keith Toston. I'm not sure if he realised there were scouts in the stands, but the guy looked terrible, just very sluggish and bored. -- FB Rashawn Jackson. Not the fastest and not the quickest, but for his size, he was pretty darn good. Showed some very nice cuts, better than a lot of the RB on display. Projected as a 5th rounder, would be a bargain at that level by the look of it. -- WR Kerry Meier. I have one word written down here and it also reads "woeful". -- SS Barry Church. Great feet, just a superbly smooth change of direction and attacking the ball at its highest point. -- RB Jahvid Best. Another ball watcher, concentrating on it right down into his belly. His agility and footwork was so smooth it would have made Sinatra look like John Candy. -- RB Dexter McCluster. Talk about speed and agility, this kid is probably worth man than being projected at number 5 among all RB. -- CB Dominique Franks. Truly excellent footwork, hip movement and change of direction. Has the tools to be a good pass defender. Maybe a little under rated right now. -- WR Kyle Williams. Very good route running style, good breaks and solid hands. Better workout than Golden Tate by far. And now, having looked at some of the new breed, let's turn our attention to some of the older breed, namely, free agents: -- David Carr has agreed a deal with the 49ers. God help us. We already have Smith, Hill and Nate Davis, why Carr as well? -- Philadelphia have wrapped up Jason Avant with a new contract. For me, Avant is an important piece in the Eagles puzzle, always coming up with timely catches. -- Fred Robbins, formerly of the Giants has now shifted to the Rams. Rams Head Coach Steve Spagnolo is already familiar with Robbins and with Robbins being a DT, it just nudges the suspicion meter even further across towards the Rams using pick 1 to take a QB, at this moment in time likely to be Sam Bradford. -- The Steelers have morphed into something of a passing team of late (to their detriment in my view) and so they've been shopping in free agency, picking up WR Arnaz Battle, previously of the 49ers. As well as being a capable number 3 receiver Battle also often contributes on special teams returns. He doesn't contribute much but hey, he gives it a go. They also scooped former Redskin WR Antwaan Randel El and former Bucs FS Will Allen. -- The Lions managed to get TE Will Heller re-signed as well as taking WR Brian Clark from Tampa. Didn't fancy Antonio Bryant then? -- Talking of Bryant, he's due to visit the Bengals soon as Cincinnati looks to boost it's receiving corps. Speaking of which, I'm not happy with all the negatives being thrown at Andre Caldwell. Caldwell was probably the most clutch guy on that offense last season, so Caldwell sure as hell isn't to blame for the poor performance of the Bengals passing attack. -- The Kansas City Chiefs have wrapped up receiver Chris Chambers. They brought Chambers in about halfway through last season and he had an immediate impact of a team that sorely lacked any true talent at the wide out position. -- Leigh Bodden has ended speculation about where he might end up... but agreeing another deal with the Pats. I really thought someone was going to bite on Bodden, but I guess not. Not even the Lions who had to settle for Jonathan Wade, formerly of... the Rams? Well, at least that's one step up the draft order for him. Well, in the words of Porky pig, that's all folks. For today at least. Hopefully by tomorrow there'll have been a flurry of free agent activity and with any luck, I'll get enough time to talk about the draft and whether to go for Best Player Available or Draft for Needs. Until then, have a nice day everyone.

A gripping tale

-- Not a huge amount to report at the minute. Scott Fujita, the LB from New Orleans has been scooped up by the Browns, which to be fair, was something they desperately need. The mere fact that Fujita has been to a Superbowl will likely earn the respect of many in the locker room. -- Brandon Marshall has been visiting in Seattle. Seattle could use a receiver like Marshall, but they probably just want to get a handle on his personal problems and find out straight from horses mouth what the deal is with his conduct. That's the only thing that's really standing in the way of them parting ways with their first round pick, which is number 6 overall. Given the money that top ten picks demand these days, coupled with their alarming propensity to turn out as abject failures, this would be a good move by the Seahawks. -- Something odd happened to today. I was watching some cut ups of Javen Snead, the QB coming out Ole Miss, and my eyes were drawn to his grip. After a crazed, coffee fueled session lasting a few hours that involved repeatedly shouting and bashing various inanimate objects, I had finally watched enough film to spot a weird trend. Most QB coming out of College now use a grip that involves them placing the middle finger of the throwing hand just above the laces, while leaving the ring and little fingers on the laces themselves. Meanwhile most pro QB (Including Favre, Brees, Warner and P. Manning) seem to place the middle finger a little higher, with the ring finger sitting just above the laces and the little finger on them. Two questions instantly come to mind: 1) Why are nearly all the pros using the same grip while all the College guys use a different one? 2) Why can't I watch football without noticing these things and then spending an inordinate amount of time researching them?

Can you repeat that please?

So I promised I would talk about why repeating at the Superbowl is so difficult and indeed I shall stay true to my word. But first: -- DE Aaron Kampman has been snapped up by the Jacksonville Jaguars. Damn did they need that signing. Their pass rush has been sorely lacking and maybe with the addition of Kampan they'll finally start to bring some rival offenses to heel, giving Jones-Drew and the rest of the Jags' offense a chance to make a difference. There are questions still about Kampmans cruciate ligament injury from last year, but apparently he's on track for a good recovery by the start of the season. The Jags meanwhile? They still need a lot of pieces to complete the puzzle. -- David Carr, the backup QB from the Giants, has visited San Francisco to speak with the 49ers, but ultimately came away without a deal. That doesn't mean that avenue is dead, but his next stop is likely to be Cleveland who will probably table a more interesting bid given their desperate need of a good QB. Unfortunately, I don't think Carr is quite what they're looking for. -- A.J. Feely has been snapped up by the Rams. I like Feely, he's performed solidly for the Eagles when he's been called upon to step in, but I fear he may not see much playing time in St. Louis as the Rams are now almost universally expected to take Sam Bradford with the first overall pick. -- Looking at some of the Steelers unrestricted free agents, there's some nice names on that list that I didn't spot before. Aside from Willie Parker who I've already talked about recently, you have CB Deshea Townsend who personally I think is just as good as Dunta Robinson who signed a ridiculously over inflated contract with Falcons. You have SS Tyrone Carter, who spelled for Troy Polamalu when he went down injured. Now is Carter as good as Polamalu? No, probably not. But that said he's certainly going to be a lot cheaper than Polamalu to sign. Could be a good fit in a lot of places and certainly someone like Detroit wouldn't benefit greatly. On top of that, NT Casey Hampton and DE Travis Kirschke are also the free agent list. That's two guys right there who could quietly make an impact on any D-line. But enough of this idle chatter, time for the Superbowl talk and just why is it so difficult to win back to back titles? Planned Parity This is probably one of the most obvious answers. When the Colts played the Patriots this season, all the TV commentators were talking about how the NFL seems to be making sure that each season these two teams get scheduled against one another, nefariously suggesting that there's someone in an office somewhere who deliberately schemes to make sure they end up having a game. No one that I know of stopped and simply said 'well, both teams keep winning their division, so isn't that the reason why they end up playing each other?'. Which it is. Under the current scheduling system, each team has to play the three teams from inside it's conference that finished in the same position as them within their respective divisions (easy as that). So for example in the coming season, the Saints will have to play the Cowboys, the Cardinals and the Vikings during the regular season, in addition to whatever other games they have on their schedule, as opposed to the season just passed when they played the Lions, the Redskins and the Rams (after finishing bottom of their division in 2008). Invariably a Superbowl team finishes either first or second in their division, so has a tougher run the next year. To add to the difficulties, teams that finish in the playoffs pick later in the draft. The Superbowl champions obviously get the last bite of the draft cherry in each round, so they often get left with the type of players who other teams think would be more at home in the next round. A late first round pick is essentially just an early second rounder. Teams coming for you You win the Superbowl and suddenly, everyone wants a piece of you. All throughout the playoffs and Superbowl week, everyone and his brother has been dissecting you and your team, looking for weaknesses. Then everyone spends the off season looking at you to see if there isn't something there that they can steal from you. And then when you finally do get to play again, everybody wants to test their mettle against the number 1 team. None of those things is particularly conductive to helping you win multiple games and getting back to the Superbowl. Internal motivation Probably the single biggest challenge is motivating your team. Now in an ideal world, the fact that players get paid 6 figure salaries as an annual minimum would be enough of a motivation. But sadly, that appears to not be the case. When you read accounts given by players who have previously won superbowls, this is the thing that comes up time and again. They've just won the big one and now they've proved their point. They go into every game with the tag 'World Champions' attached to them. That's a hard thing to stop yourself thinking about. The other way this manifests itself is in offseason preparation. Bill Walsh commented numerous times that the biggest problem his 49ers teams had was that after winning a Superbowl, instead of spending the next few months working out and watching tape like they might otherwise have done, they instead spent it at dinner parties held in their honor and charity golf days at which they were the star attraction. They got caught up in their success, the celebrations lasted too long, and the previous motivation of wanting to win a Superbowl was no longer there to force them to hit the gym everyday. It's a bit like climbing Mount Everest Which, let's face it, is quite the challenge. The joke is that bad teams start from the bottom of the mountain while the best teams just happen to start from a high altitude base camp. The reality is, winning a Superbowl is not an easy achievement. Like climbing Everest, not many people have been there. And herein lies the inherent problem with repeating a Superbowl win: It's so god damn difficult to win one in the first place! Think of all the things that have to come together. Your defense has to be able to stop anyone regardless of their offensive style. Your offense has to be able to score on anyone, regardless of their defensive style. And to cap it off you have to keep all your key players healthy for the majority of the season. Would the Saints have won the Superbowl without Brees? Would they even have made it to the Superbowl? Would the Colts have made it to that final game if Freeney and/or Mathis had gone down injured? What if the Steelers had lost Roethelisberger or Polamalu the year before? And then we just have blind luck. For the Saints, it came in many forms. The Dolphins throwing away their big first half lead by coming out throwing in the second. The missed 23 yard chip shit field goal by the Redskins. Favres' fateful decision to throw the ball instead of running during the NFC Championship game. So many things that all conspire to get a team to the bowl and then to win it. And with it only being a 16 game season, a few random chance results can derail a whole season. All in all, winning a Superbowl is a pain in the butt. It's a tough challenge, probably tougher than winning the top trophy in any other sport in the world. So given the nature of the beast you're dealing with, trying to pull that off two years in a row is unbelievably difficult. But every now and again teams do it, usually once a decade. So the one question that remains is simple; who will pull it off in the 20-teens..... ...... actually I've just thought of two other questions: 1) On draft day, do you take the Best Player Available or Draft for Needs? 2) What is the connection between Temporary Restraining Orders in the US and Belichicks famous decision to go for it on fourth down against the Colts? All will be revealed this week, along with as much analysis on free agency as my keyboard and computer will stand. Have a nice day.