Happy New Year

As it's New Years Eve, I'm going to be sitting back relaxing with a bottle of Amoretto, so amuse yourselves for one night. I'll be back tomorrow with a mammoth set of Sunday picks, but until then, Have a great New Years Eve everyone. I hope you have a good time and I wish you all the best for the coming year. If you have a dream, then stop dreaming it and go get it. Best of luck. P.S. If you come home drunk, drink a pint of water before you go to bed. It always works for me.

Getting some interference

"So," I said to myself, "what can I write about today?" I considered taking the night off, being that I've practically posted daily articles for the last 13 months or so. But then I sat down, watched another segment of the NFL Networks "Playbook" show (a gold mine for the so-called 'all 22' film) and suddenly I was struck by a moment of inspiration. Allow me to explain. Many weeks ago I picked on the Colts because they were without doubt the most heinous criminals for committing "offensive pass interference". I say 'were' because I'm now fairly sure that the Patriots have not only surpassed them in this regard, but absolutely whopped their butts. The question however came up in the comments as to what exactly constitutes "offensive pass interference"? Well, as I'm led to believe it, the rule states that on a passing play, offensive players may not block a defensive player beyond the line of scrimmage until the intended receiver has caught the ball. And that's where my moment of inspiration came in. In the segment about the coming Week 17 clash between the Raiders and the Chiefs, Joe Theismann was showing some tape to highlight the play of Chiefs rookie tight end Tony Moeaki. What he did was to inadvertently drop into my lap a perfect example of what offensive pass interference or "pick" plays look like. The play in question superficially resembles a play that is popular in the college game, often referred to as a "mesh" play. In the images we're going to look at, the two middle receivers who crossover and "mesh" are doing so a little further down the field than the true college play, but the principle is very similar. At this juncture I should point out as usual that these images are screen captures from the NFL Networks "Playbook" show and that these images have not been edited in any way by myself. All graphics, symbols and any other stuff in the image was made and added to the film by the networks computer wizards. The original video can be found here. Right. We'll start with our first image (as is customary) which, thanks to the Playbook crew and my impeccable sense of timing with the Print Screen button, shows roughly how the two inside routes will crossover. The player in the lower circle is Tony Moeaki. The design of this little combo is simple; crossover in midfield, with the receiver who goes slightly deeper "picking" or "rubbing" the trail defender off of his team mate. You can already see in the image below that the path of the receiver going over the top will lead him to collide with the defender covering Moeaki. We shall call this receiver "the pick man" (how very inventive Chris): The next image is important but you're going to have look closely. Other than catching "the Pick Man" in a still shot that makes him look like he's half way through doing a rain dance, we don't appear to have gained a lot from this shot. But we have, trust me. What you need to look at is "Pick Man's" right foot which is, for all intents and purposes, on the 31 yard line. His left foot is in the air. It should be pointed out that he has already made his break to run across the field. Now compare and contrast the image above with the image below. We can see clearly that "Pick man" has stepped with his left foot all the way out to the 33 yard line. He basically took a leap two yards to his left. But why do this in the middle of your route? It makes no sense. You're sacrificing all that speed and separation you built up, just to take a step to the left? Why? The answer can be found in our last image. Look how much space has been opened up for Moeaki to make the clean catch. (For those that are wondering, the red glowing blob is the ball, and not a radioactive hotdog from the Broncos concession stands). The separation was a result of the deeper receiver "picking" or "rubbing" the defender off of Moeaki. Hopefully now when you watch the video you'll see what I mean. In fact, it's a very blatant side step designed to manufacture an open receiver. Now call me old fashioned, but I like to see people win fairly. I like to know that the game I'm watching is a contest between two teams that are giving it their all and who know the rules and will abide by them in the interest of a good, fair game. Instead what I'm seeing increasingly is a flexing of the rules, almost always favouring the offense. Now as I've said before, if the league doesn't mind this kind of offensive pass interference and wants this kind of thing to be legal then that's fine. But make it legal, in writing, in the rule book. But as things stand, this is just as illegal as a defensive back knocking over a receiver just as he's about to catch a pass 10 yards down field, before the ball even reaches him. Add this kind of thing (which it appears almost all teams are doing and getting away with now) to the new emphasis on defenseless receivers and then all the silly penalties for "roughing the passer" every time one gets tapped even slightly on the head, and what we have is an outright and irrefutable case that the NFL is legislating in favour of (or in this case failing to legislate against) the offenses of the league. The reasons might be many, but just taking a wild guess in the dark I would say it has a lot to do with making the game "more exciting", providing you enjoy watching basketball played on grass (or artificial turf), which I imagine the league is hoping will bump audiences and thus revenues. Call me cynical, because basically I am, but this to me is getting beyond a joke. As I see it, the fairness is being sapped from a game I love watching in favour of artificial offense and a desire for higher scoring games. Which sucks. P.S. Keep watching the 'Playbook' video past this incident, keeping an eye out for the segment where Brian Baldinger brings up the Chiefs defensive back field. It highlights rookies Eric Berry, Kendrick Lewis and Javier Arenas. Eric Berry was no surprise this season but the other two -- especially Lewis -- have been to most people, as Baldinger points out. I'd now just like to take this opportunity then to point you in the direction of my rookie watch list, where all 3 of those players have been sitting since before week 1. It's nice being right. Sometimes.

With no mid-week games this week (all on Sunday) it means I have a bit of time spare in this mid week. So I've now got the chance to do something a bit more fun with some more pictures, but first... I've remembered the thing that I'd forgotten at the end of yesterday's post. Picks. I finished the week at a tie, 8-8, which takes my season tally now to 121-103 after 16 weeks. Which, if I'm honest, is rubbish. Better luck next year by the looks of it. Now before we get onto the show and tell aspect of this, another article pointer for you. Another one from Michael Lombardi, and affirmation I feel that he indeed is the most improved analyst from any of the major networks. This is what I'm talking about when I say that Lombardi is at his best dishing out the cold, hard truth, as if he was sitting Jerry Jones down and trying to slap some sense into him. Which is something, be honest now, that we'd all pay to see. Right, pictures time. The images I have for you are unashamedly screen captured from NFL networks playbook show, as evidenced by the little playbook symbol in the corner. They have not been edited, so any symbols, lines or shapes etc are those put on by the show themselves and not by me. The original video can be found here. Now what we're looking at is the Saints driving in for a score against the Falcons. It's 3rd and 3 with the ball on the Falcons 6 yard line. What the analysts were interested in is kind of what I'm interested in, but for different reasons. Their focus was on the motion by Reggie Bush (number 25) who you can see just running down to the numbers at the bottom of the picture below, and the effect that this has on the linebacker to the weak side. The linebacker is drawn across to the middle of the defense as the coverage is shifted to accommodate for the motion. The Linebacker in question is now in the left of the two blue circles. The intent of the shows piece was to demonstrate how the crafty mind of Saints Head Coach Sean Payton produced an opening in the passing game through the use of motion (the "10 yards" you can see in the image above). But what I'm more interested in is the technique of the defender in the picture below, which is Falcons safety William Moore (they're the pair at the top of the picture in the first image). Whether Moore realises it or not, the ball is headed his way. It's third down, with just 3 yards to go, and of course the Saints are almost within touching distance of the end zone just to add to the problem. So why, my question goes, does Moore not bump the receiver? This is something that has been really bugging me over the last two years as I started taking more note of it. Moore is clearly aligned head up, man to man on the receiver. Now at this distance, I've always been led to believe (and indeed do believe) that you should be making strong physical contact with the receiver as he crosses the line of scrimmage. Otherwise there is no real benefit to standing that close; if you're not going to bump him, you might as well back up and give yourself a bit of a cushion. Think about this as well. Brees is in an empty set. If there is a blitz or the front four manage to beat a block, there is no help back there. Brees would be left to simply throw or run. You have to be thinking as a defensive back that if you can just delay the receivers release, then the pass rush will get home, or at least very close. It will also allow the linebacker inside of you to get into his drop and help you out. So bump the bloody receiver!! Instead what we get is what you see below: Moore backs off immediately at the snap (this is a few frames later). If you watch the original video it'll confirm that he makes no effort to even redirect this receiver, let alone get a solid bump on him. As you can see in the final image below, the receiver has plenty of room to make the catch without having to worry about Moore potentially breaking it up. And it just drives me nuts. From a coaching standpoint I am (ahem, was) more of an offensive guy. But seeing what is essentially free points being given away (something I should be delighted to see) really gets on my nerves. It goes back to the old argument of "you're paid millions of dollars, so why aren't you doing the basic stuff that college/high school kids are taught?" As a result of Moore's failure to get a good bump (and no, him being a safety is not an excuse) the Saints were able to snatch an easy TD. I guess it's just something about me. I don't like seeing this kind of thing handed away. I like seeing teams made to work hard for their points/wins. There probably was a point to this other than me just ranting to get something off my chest. But whatever that point was, has now been forgotten. Sod it.

Tuesday Night recap?

Minnesota Vikings 24 @ Philadelphia Eagles 14: Putting this game back was stupid as hell. I've heard all the "in the interest of public safety" blah, blah. You think people who would have gone to this game wouldn't have know about the weather? Do we really think that those people wouldn't have factored the snow into their travel arrangements? I hate this kind of thing. If people get stuck in their car overnight then that's their problem, let them deal with it. Most importantly, let them make the choice. Anyway, on to the game and another pick flushed down the toilet by a surprise result. But I have no problem with it. If there's one thing I hate it's the old "this guy/team/offense/defense is unbeatable" hyperbole. Well I think we can officially put the Eagles under mike Vick down as beatable. Vick himself did half good, half bad. 25/43 for 263 yards and a TD is good. 8 carries for 63 yards and a TD is good. An interception is bad. Two fumbles (one returned for a TD) is bad. Six sacks is bad. A third down efficiency of just 4/11 is bad. The Vikings were all good(ish) for a change. Joe Webb got his first start and went 17/26 for 195 yards. Adrian Peterson had 22 carries for 118 yards and a TD. And as mentioned, the defense came up with 6 sacks, an interception and 2 forced fumbles. The loss denies the Eagles any hope of being the number one seed in the NFC through the playoffs. But what is more worrying is the fact that yet another big NFC team is stumbling with the playoffs in sight. The Super Bowl future looks bright for the AFC. Now, in other news: -- I've already been hard at work preparing for the 2011 draft, with a number of names already beginning to populate the 2011 rookie watchlist. -- The Pro Bowl teams have been announced, or as they're otherwise known "The joke list of players who will play in that relic, sham of a game that nobody really cares about". I mean seriously, where the hell is Tamba Hali? This is why I hate the Pro Bowl, because every year we hear about players who've been to xyz amount of Pro Bowls, when we all know that a lot of those names are living off of their past performances. I'll admit that some calls for fresh players are a little extreme (Matt Cassel), but others are legitimate complaints. Can anyone tell me for example how not a single Chargers defensive player made the list, despite having the highest ranked D in the league? How are Darrelle Revis and Nnamdi Asomugha still on that list? Again, where is Tamba Hali? How is Maurice Jones-Drew ahead of Peyton Hillis and Rashard Mendehall, despite both having 11 TD's to Jones-Drews 5? How is Jacob Hester not the AFC fullback? No Rob Gronkowski at TE for the AFC? Drew Brees; 21 interceptions? Charles Woodson a starting corner for the NFC? I dunno. All I know is that I wont even bother doing a recap when it comes around. Who cares? -- There was something else I was going to bring up. Now I can't remember what it was. Shit.

Monday Night Football recap

New Orleans Saints 17 @ Atlanta Falcons 14: Honestly, if this is the best the NFC has to offer then I suspect the AFC teams heading into the playoffs are going to be licking their chops. With the win the Saints bagged a playoff spot, but to win the division they'll need some help from Carolina next week which is unlikely. Their more immediate concern might be their offense. Drew Brees was 35/49, which looks good on paper, but for just 302 yards leaves them with an average of just over 8 yards per pass. Brees also bagged 1 TD, but also 2 INT's, one of which was an absolute shocker that was returned for a touchdown. This was simply not good enough from either team. While some mistakes were punished, others went penalty free and that simply isn't going to happen in the playoffs. Both teams really need to knuckle down and focus this week. That also cost me another pick, taking me to 8-7 for the week. Now, before I head off to go and stab my voodoo doll of Sean Payton, I have two things to bring to your attention. The first is this article regarding some of the fines that were levied after week 15, including a $7,500 fine for a horse collar tackle. What I want you to take note of is the 341 comments. Juts read some of them. If the NFL has any questions about where the fans stand in regards to all these junk fines, I think they can find the answers there among the overwhelming hoard of negative comments. Which leads me to another article that has me questioning my most improved analyst blah, blah award. This article by Pat Kirwan makes him a strong contender as it vastly overshadows some of the shoddy work he put up earlier this year. In particular I'd like to point you towards the last point he makes (emphasis added by the way): "I don't care what teams publish as attendance at NFL games, there were way too many empty seats this weekend. The average fan simply can't afford to go to a game and I'm starting to think the clubs must get into the reality business and lower ticket prices -- or be prepared to play to half-filled stadiums." "I'm not here to name names, but it was embarrassing to see upper decks half-empty and even seats on the 50-yard line unused. The players need to look at the stadiums they play in and also realize that, unless there is a radical change, they too will suffer financially." "People can't afford to go to games, can't appreciate all the talk about how much money the players want, or see any logic in owners wanting to expand to 18 games. Let's stop thinking about the NFL machine and look at the empty seats and find a solution." As if by magic, Mr. Kirwan has been transformed from corporate spokesperson (like earlier in the season) to the voice of reason that echo's what the vast majority of NFL fans think. It's a miracle worthy of any Christmas tale and it needed to be said by someone in Kirwan's position. With any luck the rest of the mainstream media will catch on soon. I never thought I'd say this but; God bless you Pat Kirwan.

Week 16 Sunday action recap

New England Patriots 34 @ Buffalo Bills 3: Someone needs to tell Ryan Fitzpatrick that the one thing you don't do against the Patriots is throw 3 interceptions. Especially when Brady is in a 3 touchdown mood. Those turnovers were truly costly though, as the Patriots didn't exactly pour on the yardage. They just poured on the touchdowns is all. With this win the Patriots have now secured home advantage all the way through the playoffs. New York Jets 34 @ Chicago Bears 38: Considering these are two teams who are supposed to make a living off their defense, I'm surprised just how high the scoring was. Cutler threw 3 touchdowns and ran one in himself, with another rushing TD put in by Forte. The gauntlet handed down, the Bears offense came up with just 3 touchdowns of it's own. A Dwight Lowery pick 6 and a few field goals made up the difference for New York, but once again their extravagant spending in recent years on offense is still failing to reap dividends. Watching Thomas Jones rip things up on the ground for the Chiefs must hurt as well. The Jets should look on the bright side though. At least they're guaranteed a playoff spot now. Baltimore Ravens 20 @ Cleveland Browns 10: Flacco hardly did anything special (12/19, 102 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT), and nor did Ray Rice (25 carries, 92 yards). That has to be a worry going into the playoffs, as the Ravens are now assured to do. How long they will stay there is a matter of conjecture. Putting 20 points up on the Browns isn't the worst thing in the world, but it doesn't bode particularly well either. The Ravens defense at least continues to hold up their end of the bargain. They held Colt McCoy (watch list) to 15/29 for 149 yards with 3 interceptions. Poor Colt. Washington Redskins 20 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 17: It's hard to remember that the Jaguars are challenging the Colts for the AFC South title when you see results like this. It will now come down to the final game for the Jags, with them needing a bit of help from the Titans. So forget that already. Back to the game and with Maurice Jones-Drew out, it left David Garrard leading the Jaguars in rushing with 6 carries for 39 yards and a TD. That really sums the Jaguars day up. Garrard threw for 299 yards and a TD as well, but the two interceptions hurt. Rex Grossman was much more pedestrian for the Redskins, with just 19/39 for 182 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, but it turned out to be enough as the Redskins snatched the win in overtime. Tennessee Titans 14 @ Kansas City Chiefs 34: The Titans could potentially have a big role in shaping the AFC playoff picture. Today they lost to the Chiefs, who are now the AFC West champions thanks to results elsewhere. Next week the Titans will have the honor of being beaten by the Colts to decide the AFC South. So that's two loses that lead to division winners being decided. And lets be honest, the result next week at Lucas Oil Stadium is hardly in doubt, with Kerry Collins finishing today 14/37 for 235 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Compare to Matt Cassel; 24/34, 314 yards, 3 touchdowns. The Chiefs also piled on another 150+ yards on the ground. Even the defense pitched in with Eric Berry (watch list) taking back an interception for a touchdown. Detroit Lions 34 @ Miami Dolphins 27: Going into the 4th quarter the Dolphins were looking good. After booting a field goal all they had to do was avoid making any big mistakes and giving up 17 points in the remaining time and..... oops. No sympathy, at all for the Dolphins. Teams bring this kind of thing on themselves and having run the ball quite well through the game, it almost seems ludicrous that they would suddenly get pass happy, despite leading relatively comfortably. Like I said, no sympathy for them. San Francisco 49ers 17 @ St. Louis Rams 25: With this defeat the 49ers are mathematically done for the year. And Mike Singletary is mathematically done as the 49ers Head Coach. No, literally, if you haven't already heard, Singletary has been fired. His interim replacement for the the final game will be Defensive Line coach Jim Tomsula. The writing was on the wall before the game even started though. His flip flopping between quarterbacks, an obvious lack of control at times over the players, and a lack of strategic and tactical direction all doomed Singletary. He even switched quarterbacks mid way through this one. Troy Smith was 7/19 for 153 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Then came Alex Smith to lead a rally from behind.... and who finished 10/15 for 120 yards. Brian Westbrook had just 10 carries. Anthony Dixon another 6. Compare to the Rams who fed Sam Bradford 37 passes, of which he completed 28 for 292 yards and a touchdown. RB Steven Jackson had 24 carries for 48 yards and a TD. The Rams defense pitched in, putting up a safety, 4 sacks, an interception and 3 forced fumbles collectively. The Rams now head into a week 17 clash with the Seahawks to decide whether the NFC West winner will have an 8-8 record or a 7-9 record. San Diego Chargers 20 @ Cincinnati Bengals 34: Yesterday I said that without Owens and Ochocinco to supposedly hold him back and cause trouble, this was Carson Palmers chance to shine. Which he did. 16/21 for 268 yards and 4 touchdowns. Jerome Simpson was a grateful recipient with 6 catches for 124 yards and 2 touchdowns. Andre Caldwell caught 4 for 87 yards. Running backs Cedric Benson and Bernard Scott also combined for 34 carries for 102 yards and a TD. The Chargers meanwhile were left shell shocked. With this loss and the Chiefs win, that ends the Chargers post season hopes for the year. Houston Texans 23 @ Denver Broncos 24: Matt Schaub was 23/33 for 310 yards, a TD and an INT. RB Arian Foster had 19 carries for 91 yards and a TD. But after a great start, the Texans gradually let the game slip away. Enter then, Tim Tebow; the man, the legend. Of all the people on my rookie watch list, Tebow is one of the ones I'm most happy to promote. Given all the flak the guy took coming into the league, He's the one I most want to succeed, just so I can rub it in. 16/29, 308 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, some good play action from under center, good movement in the pocket, good throwing on the run + 10 carries for 27 yards and 1 TD later, and I'm beaming with an incredibly smug smile. All I need now is for the player who I second most want to succeed -- CB Syd'Quan Thompson -- to get a pick and I'll go to bed happy tonight.... boom!! Thank you and goodnight. Indianapolis Colts 31 @ Oakland Raiders 26: Wait, I can't go yet. A few more games to cover. The Raiders did surprisingly well on defense. They spent much of the game in single high man coverage and held Peyton Manning to 16/30 for 179 yards, 3 TD's and 2 INT's. Shame that the Raiders offense just really couldn't compete. Everyone has been praising Jason Campbell this year, but apart from the last drive Campbell looked a little lost to me, like the whole situation had overwhelmed him (29/42 for 231 yards and a TD). Most surprising was the success of the respective run games. The Colts combined for just under 200 yards (with Manning running for 27 of them!!) off of 39 carries. The Raiders? 20 carries combined for 80 yards. But who am I -- a lowly Monday morning quarterback -- to criticize the Raiders for not sticking with the second best rushing attack in the NFL. One day maybe. One thing I do have to bring up here is the officiating. Again I have to ask, why bother bringing in certain rules if you're not going to enforce them? The Raiders were routinely using 3 man wedges on kickoffs, which as far as I'm aware, are now supposed to be banned. So why no flags? Maybe it's because the Raiders managed to draw 10 for 116 yards during regular play? Which was honestly a bit of a joke. The two pass interference flags were pathetic. Occasionally the league takes the time to scoff at claims that they favour teams like the Colts or the Patriots, but penalties like these surely don't help their case. Nor does it help when Blair White runs to the endzone and the official standing near the pylon appears to point with his arm to remind White to cross the plane of the goal. New York Giants 17 @ Green Bay Packers 45: Word of advice to you all; when making picks for NFL games, check the injury report first. Had I done this, I would have realised that Matt Flynn was not starting at QB for the Packers, who promptly came out and routed the Giants. Aaron Rodgers finished the game 25/37 for 404 yards and 4 touchdowns. Wow. Eli Manning didn't fare quite as well; 17/33 for 301 yards, 2 TD's and 4 INT's. The Giants "fifth best rushing attack in the NFL" received just 20 carries split almost evenly between Jacobs and Bradshaw. Again, I'm not saying or suggesting anything, for I am a lowly MMQB. With this result it means the Eagles have bagged the NFC East even before playing their game on Tuesday, which was postponed due to weather. Seattle Seahawks 15 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38: The reason people get annoyed with the NFC West was evident in this game; the Seahawks have a shot at the playoffs if they can just beat the Rams next week. Meanwhile the team that handled them easily in this game could potentially miss out. And it was easy. Josh Freeman was 21/26 for 237 yards and 5 (five!) touchdowns. RB LaGarrette Blount had 18 carries for 164 yards (All: "Didn't you describe him as woeful at the combine Chris?". Yes. Shut up... ). On the opposite side, injured Matt Hasselbeck was 3/4 for 24 yards, while Charlie Whitehurst was 11/18 for 66 yards. It was just an utter waltz for the Buccaneers, who I kind of hope make the playoffs, given how far they've come this year under Raheem Morris. So that's all of Sundays games done. Tomorrow the Falcons and the Saints clash with the NFC South title on the line (sort of) and then Tuesday we see the Vikings and Eagles go at it. As for my picks? So far this week I'm 8-6 with 2 games to go. I'll be back tomorrow to recap the Monday Night game.

Week 16 picks

Dallas Cowboys 26 @ Arizona Cardinals 27: Bah ha ha ha ha!! Sometimes I feel sorry for Cowboys fans. Then I remember they're Cowboys fans and I get that warm, fuzzy feeling inside knowing that they're going to be crying into their cocoa tonight. On the bright side, at least they're not Cardinals fans, which is good in a number of ways. Not least because the Cardinals suuuck!! They were gifted two fluky ass interceptions which they returned for touchdowns and at one point led the game by 21-3. And yet somehow, somehow they managed to let the Cowboys back in. Worse than that, the Cowboys even lost John Kitna to injury. So it was 2nd year quarterback Stephen McGee, who stepped onto the field for the first time in a regular season game, that lead the majority of the comeback. And they came so close. However a busted extra point set the Cardinals up to drive the field and kick a last ditch 48 yard field goal. Which they did. As a result the Cowboys lost a game that they could at least have taken to overtime. For the Cardinals it was a win that is almost inexplicable. They had just 10 first downs for the whole game. They were 2/11 on third downs. They trailed the Cowboys in total net yards by over 100. They held the ball for just under 22 minutes to the Cowboys 38. Personally I'm left with the distinct impression that had Miles Austin not slipped to let Rodgers-Cromartie make a pick and had Roy Williams not muffed his attempted catch into the hands of Greg Toller, then the Cardinals would have been beaten down thoroughly. I know, I know, you can't blame the Cardinals for taking advantage of the Cowboys mistakes. But man, when Ken Whisenhunt watches this tape back he's going to be wiping his brow and thinking "that was a lucky escape". The Cardinals 5 sacks and two interceptions on defense will be a positive, as will the 8 tackles and a forced fumble by rookie LB Daryl Washington (watch list). But the Cardinals have a hell of a long way to go before they resemble a competitive team again. All up and down the offense & all up and down the defense, the Cardinals need help. Otherwise 2011 is going to be a tragic and miserable season for Cardinals fans. On second thoughts Whizz, keep things just the way they are.... Right, on to Sunday's picks. New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills: As much as I like Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bills, there is no damn way I'm picking against the Patriots in this one. With Brady playing MVP worthy football (much helped by the excellent pieces around him) and with that young defense that is really emerging, I just can't look beyond New England. Patriots win. New York Jets @ Chicago Bears: Quite a tough game to pick. The Bears defense continues to drive this team forward as it smothers opposition offenses just enough to give Jay Cuter some leeway for making mistakes. The Jets meanwhile don't do an awful lot well at the minute. Mark Sanchez is like a ticking time bomb, just waiting to explode and blow his own offense out of the game. The defense is not keeping games manageable. I never thought I'd have to say this at the start of the season but, Bears win. Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns: The Browns have made a lot of progress this year. But Baltimore right now just keep finding ways to beat teams, even if that means stumbling over the method blindly in the dark. Whatever works I guess. Simply put, if the Ravens play like they did against the Saints, then victory should be just 60 minutes away. Or 3 hours if you want to be realistic. Ravens win. Washington Redskins @ Jacksonville Jaguars: Having suffered at the hands of the Colts, the Jaguars badly need this win to keep pace in the AFC South. The Redskins need... to get a grip. The whole deal with Shanahan, Shanahan and McNabb (perhaps the worst sounding law firm in history) is just getting ridiculous now. Someone has to go and they have to do it quickly. At the beginning of the season I expected the Redskins to do reasonably well. That was a serious miscalculation. Jaguars win. Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs: After the Titans recent yo-yo in form, I'm not sure which Titans team we can expect to see on Sunday. Given that uncertainty and the fact that the Chiefs are fighting to keep their spot in the playoffs, I'd have to favour Kansas. The return of Matt Cassel gives them back one of the key cogs in their now tried, tested and proven offensive approach. With a tough defense to boot, I'm taking the home town Chiefs. Chiefs win. Detroit Lions @ Miami Dolphins: Oh Jesus. I really don't like Miami right now, but that said, how much do I really trust the Lions? On their day they can kick butt. But they can also have those days where they just fall flat on their face, stumbling through the game in embarrassing fashion like a young kid asking his first girl out on a date. And while the Lions D-line is solid, their back end is pretty vulnerable still, which is not good when you're facing Brandon Marshall and Davone Bess, among others. So with a little bit of regret, I'm going to have to take Miami. Maybe next year Detroit? Dolphins win. San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams: Why couldn't I have been a 49ers fan in the eighties? (because you weren't born till '84, idiot). The 49ers right now look so bad in so many places, but worse than that is the fact that they tease the potential of being good. They put up sacks every now and again. Sometimes they even look competent on offense. But it's all a charade, a loose collection of vaguely optimistic looking moments designed to keep fans coming back for more on a false promise of potential. When Mike Singletary took over it was looking so rosey. But what we didn't know back then that we do now is that while Singletary may have been an awesome linebacker and is currently pretty good at providing exciting and motivating sound bites, he just doesn't appear to have a handle on this whole "being a Head Coach" thing. Good news for Rams fans then, as they take another step closer to winning the worst division in football right now. Rams win. San Diego Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals: Terrell Owens is done for the year. Chad Ochocinco is apparently injured (and I'm not just talking about his pride after being thrown under a bus by his head coach). Enter then; Carson Palmer and Marvin Lewis. It's put up or shut up time. If Owens and Ochocinco are such cancerous members of the team, then surely now the way is paved with gold for Palmer and Lewis to go out and make a statement. Of course, we all know how that went in Dallas.... With San Diego fighting for their playoff lives, I fully expect them to knuckle down, batten down the hatches and come at Cincinnati like a bat out of hell. If I can think of any more idioms I will let you know. Chargers win. Houston Texans @ Denver Broncos: So the question I pose goes thus; which Houston team will we see? Will it be the Houston whose offense deserves to be playing alongside the defense of Pittsburgh or Baltimore (and whose defense deserves to be playing alongside the offense of San Francisco or Seattle)? Will it be the Houston defense that occasionally plays like it cares about the result? Or will it be the entire Houston team that deserves to be put in a barrel and thrown over Niagara Falls? Not that it really matters. The Broncos have to be the most underachieving team in the NFL right now. They have some very good players at a lot of positions, on both sides of the ball no less. But at times they play like a team of freshman college kids who are trying to figure out for the first time in their careers how to run something other than "32 blast" 40 times a game. I like the Broncos, but right now they're just a collection of players going through the motions. They're not a team. So, Texans win. Indianapolis Colts @ Oakland Raiders: This is a pretty tough one to choose I think. The Raiders on their day have shown that they can handle teams pretty roughly. The Colts in turn have shown a penchant for self-destruction this season. Is relying on the Colts to implode a sufficient reason to take Oakland though? I'm not so sure. I don't mean to demean the Raiders at all, they've come forward in leaps and bounds this year. But the Colts are still on a different plane when they put their minds to it. I have to go with Indy I think. Colts win. New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers: Matt Flynn has a test on his hands. Against the Patriots he didn't exactly face a furious pass rush. On the occasions that the Patriots did blitz, Flynn struggled. So how will he handle Tuck, Umenyiora, Pierre-Paul, etc in his face? I'm not sure right now, but I can't imagine it'll be pretty. Especially as the Giants as a whole need a kick up the butt after their shocking last second defeat in Week 15. A win would see the Giants into the playoffs, so expect them to come out all guns blazing. Giants win. Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Last year this fixture was a week 16 game to miss, for oh so many reasons. This year this game has playoff implications. For both teams! It's stupid as hell, but there you go. So who wins. Honestly, it has to be the Buc's. I consider the Seahawks to be worse right now than the 49ers, and the Buc's shut the 49ers down not that long ago. Ergo, that should mean that Tampa will be able to shut down Seattle and open up an unassailable lead. It might not be quite that dominant, but I'm still backing a Buccaneers win. Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles: Please. It doesn't matter who is starting at QB for the Vikings. There are two simple indicators of how this game will go; the Vikings chronic 2010 defense and the Eagles high powered offense led by MVP candidate Michael Vick. That face off should end really badly for the Vikings, leading to an Eagles victory and their clinching of the NFC East. Eagles win New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons: Resting on this game is the NFC South title and the #1 playoff seed in the NFC. All the Falcons have to do is beat the Saints. Easy at that he says! And having seen the Saints/Ravens game from last week, you'd be forgiven for thinking that the Falcons are already making plans. The Saints defense was roughly handled by a Ravens offense not known for it's high productivity this year. That bodes well for a Falcons offense that has been playing pretty well and pretty consistently so far. Add on a defense that has been surprisingly stingy (and somewhat under rated when compared to the offense) and you have a potential recipe for stopping Drew Brees. Potentially. I'm going to have to hedge my bets on this one and say that on balance I think the Falcons are just a little more rounded as a team right now. Falcons win. So there we go. All my week 16 picks on the board and already 1-1. For those of you who are headed out to games this weekend, please be careful. The weather forecast in the North-East basically just reads "blizzard", so wrap up warm, take your cell phones (with a full battery), stay safe and have fun.

Covering your backside

Jingle Bells! Jingle Bells! I hate Christmas. But in the spirit of generosity, giving and good will, I've taken time out from the nauseating, overly commercial spectacle that is Christmas and finally finished my article for the "Most Improved Analyst From a Major Network" award, otherwise known as the MIAFMN. And the winner is....... Michael Lombardi, of the NFL Network. I know. WTF? But it's true. My knock on him is that previously he's always tried to write articles from the perspective of an analyst, a commentator, a journalist or one of many other persona's that just doesn't fit, trying to do things he's not really well accustomed to. But as you can see in this article, when Lombardi sits down and writes from his experience as a former front office personnel guy, he makes a lot of sense. These articles tend to be a bit more cold and detached. There's no hype or gimmicks. He just tells the truth straight from the hip, as if he was briefing an owner on the current state of the NFL. The results are excellent and it offers an interesting perspective. But of course, nothing and nobody can be perfect. That applies to Lombardi as much as the rest of us. Just check out this video. Admittedly Lombardi places some blame on the Ravens protection scheme as a whole, but putting the pressure largely on Joe Falcco is wrong in my opinion. Particularly the criticism that Flacco didn't find his hot route quick enough is well off the mark. To demonstrate, I'll try and use some diagrams. Which now explains why it's taken so long to produce this article. Through the wonders of the "Print Screen" function and some dicking about with files, Jpeg's and God knows what else, I can now finally do some interesting diagrammatic analysis. It should be noted that all the images are screen captures taken from the NFL Networks "Playbook" show and there has been no editing afterwards of the images. So anyway, here we go. The problem with the play in question is that the Steelers have six men at the Line Of Scrimmage, ready to blitz, with a middle linebacker possibly making a 7th rusher. The Ravens obviously have their 5 linemen and they also have a tight end to the right and running back Ray Rice in the backfield. That's seven men to potentially pick up seven. Except the Ravens are using a 6 man protection, involving the lineman and the RB. The tight end is going to release. In the event of a heavy blitz, the Ravens are largely relying on the "hot" principle to pick up one of the blitzers. Now as you can see in the image below, Troy Polamalu is coming from the back side and eventually it will be him who makes the sack.

The "hot" route in this protection is to the tight end to the right. The Tight end is responsible for reading the defender over him. If that guy blitzes, then he breaks off his route and runs quickly into the flat. The quarterback is responsible for reading the linebacker, recognizing the blitz and then throwing the ball quickly to that man, as demonstrated in the next image.

As you can clearly see in the next picture, both the quarterback and the tight end make the right read. They see the blitz, the tight end breaks off into the flat and the quarterback Joe Flacco can clearly be seen starring right at his receiver, looking to the throw the ball quickly. If you watch the video again and look at Flacco's head, he never takes his eyes off that side of the field, first reading the defender and then looking for the throw to the tight end.

Unfortunately there is a problem. Troy Polamalu is about to come free on Flacco's blindside. The blitzer to the right (our left) is accounted for by the "hot"route. The four rushing defenders up the middle are being blocked. So who is accounting for Polamalu, who you can see ringed on (our) right of the picture below?

The answer is of course; nobody. And this is where the problem comes in. Lombardi is blaming Flacco for not seeing Polamalu and thus getting the ball out quickly, but I'm not sure that is Flacco's responsibility. If you look at the picture above you can see the running back is headed to the his right (our left) and by comparison to the picture below you can see that the back ends up picking up the blitz that was already accounted for by the "hot" route. This poses a problem. We have one blitzer being picked up by two people, a case of "double accounting" you might say. This is how Polamalu ends up coming free and I'm inclined to blame the back for this. It's obvious that the "hot" route has one of the blizters covered, so I imagine the back was supposed to go to his left (our right) and pick up Polamalu. Except the back goes the wrong way and as you can see in the picture below, the end result is Flacco trying to give Polamalu an unintended piggy back, which lead to a game changing fumble.

So what have we learnt? Hopefully, that Michael Lombardi is best utilized not analyzing plays on Playbook, but cutting through the layers of bureaucratic and politically correct crap that often surrounds NFL teams and their interactions with the media, and of course the media's own guilt when it comes to shovelling bullshit. And we've also learnt that the Ravens have serious protection issues, mainly involving their backs. Maybe one of the reasons for their offensive success last week against New Orleans stems from the fact that they used Ray Rice much more as a receiver in the passing game where he excels, and relied on him much less for protection purposes. I'll be back later to recap the Saturday night game and give you my picks for Sunday, but until then, Merry Christmas everyone. Bah Humbug

Saturday Night Football

Twas the night before Christmas and all was quite, when I suddenly remembered... "shit, I haven't done my Saturday night pick". Dallas Cowboys @ Arizona Cardinals: Dallas wins. There you go. Honestly, the Cardinals may have a better record than the Lions when they went 0-16, but this team is probably just as bad, if not worse. Minus Kurt Warner and a few pieces on defense, the 2010 Card's are a shadow of the 2009 side. It doesn't matter if the Cowboys field a team of backups and rookies, they should have no problem beating Arizona. Cowboys win. I'll be back at some point to round up the game and also get my picks in for Sunday, but until then have a Merry Christmas everyone.

Thursday Night Football

Bah!!! I've been denied so far in my nefarious scheme to upload images in an attempt to share a thought or two with you; the readers. Thus I've decided to do the Thursday Night Recap first and then I'll return to my scheming later. Carolina Panthers 3 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 27: Lucky then that this recap should pose few problems, which ironically enough is exactly what the Panthers did to the Steelers (chortle, chortle). It was bad. Very bad. When the Panthers defense wasn't getting carved into small slices by Ben Roethlisberger, it was left to Jimmy Clausen to carry the flag of mediocrity, at one point stepping up blindly into an obvious sack. James Farrior must have thought it was Christmas come a little early. Clausen ended the game 10/23 for 72 yards and an interception. That truly is woeful. Carolina fans must be hanging their heads in disgust at their teams complete ineptitude. Well, almost. One thing the Panthers do seem to have the swing of is generating the odd sack. They had three (albeit to the Steelers 4), with two alone going to defensive end Charles Johnson. But the Steelers not only topped the Panthers for sacks, they aced them on offense as well. Ben Roethlisberger finished 22/32 for 320 yards and a touchdown. He sneaked another home himself and Rashard Mendenhall blasted in another. I should also draw your attention to the excellent second year receiver Mike Wallace who finished the game with 4 catches for 104 yards and a touchdown. This also means I start the week 1-0 in picks, but that was never really in doubt. Now before I disappear back to a feverish session with MS Paint, two things I want to tell you. -- My Christmas present has arrived, courtesy of Amazon. The present in question is Parcells - A Biography by Bill Gutman. Earlier today I polished off the Prologue, Introduction and Chapter One, and so far the book strikes me as being very matter of fact, to the point, and well written. As an (ex)coach I really enjoyed reading about the early insight into the mind of Parcells and how his experiences at school in various sports had a big impact on shaping his coaching philosophy in the future. This is looking like a quality buy and I'm tentatively recommending it already. I'll give you an update at some future point on whether it's a definite buy or not. -- I'm sure two questions you routinely ask yourself are "Who was the Duke of Wellington?" and "What is the sense of humour like in the British Army?". This handy post from ARRSE (ARmy Rumour SErvice) should answer both questions.

Quick update

Yeah, check it out!! New threads for my... thread. Thing. Basically the new look solves three major problems I had: 1) A Lack of space in the middle text box. 2) A layout that looked liked it had been designed by a 2 year old. 3) The lack of coloured borders making various sections seem to blend into one another. I'm much happier now and that will do me. I hearby promise that, barring some major problem that can only be solved with a redesign, I will avoid the traditional desire of websites to constantly update their look every six months. And just to give you a heads up, I'm currently working on what I hope will be a sweet looking article. Fingers crossed. Now where's the coffee....

Thursday Night pick and some Nickel and dime stuff

Just a quick hello and how are you? Good, time to make a pick for the Week 16 Thursday Night game. Carolina Panthers @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Do I really have to sit down and go through this one? The Panthers may have won at the weekend but that had little to do with the Panthers inherent ability to win tough games and a hell of a lot to do with playing the Cardinals. The Steelers will not prove to be such a cake walk. Even though they've booked a place in the post season, the Steelers still haven't secured for sure the AFC North, so they definitely still have something to play for. Now despite the loss of Troy Polamalu, the Steelers still have an excellent defense, and certainly they have a favourable match up on Thursday. They're pretty good from a run defense perspective and running is just about the only thing the Panthers entire team does well. You also have to remember that the Panthers lean heavily on their tight ends to make plays in the passing game, so the loss of speed & play making instincts in the Steelers secondary shouldn't be too noticeable in this one. Sorry Panthers fans, but I'm taking the Steelers. Steelers win. Now for something a little different. Basically I want to talk to you about Nickel Backs, as in the extra defensive back typically brought onto the field by defenses that are expecting a pass and/or are facing a three wide receiver set. To say what I want to say about Nickel backs, I need a bit of a visual aid so I'm going to pinch a diagram from the Blitzology blog (http://www.blitzology.blogspot.com/) Ahh, that's better. My apology's to Blitzology for chaffing their picture. So the character that we're interested in is represented -- unsurprisingly -- by the letter "N". What interests me about this image is that it shows the Nickel back aligned just slightly inside the slot receiver to the right of the picture. This is something we're seeing more and more of in both College football and the NFL, though the inside alignment of that Nickel back is often even more dramatic than you see here, sometimes splitting the difference between the slot receiver and the offensive tackle to that side. What this does is provides the defensive coordinator with a remarkable degree of flexibility. Despite being shifted inward, the Nickel back can still cover the slot receiver man-to-man, providing the receiver doesn't slant hard to the sideline at the snap. He can also drop back into a short zone. He can trade zones with a linebacker. He can dash out and play the underneath zone to the far right while the corner drops deep into, say, cover 3. Importantly, the Nickel back can still blitz the QB off the edge and is in good position to play as the primary force defender on a run play to his side of the field. Even more importantly, he doesn't need to tip off the QB through alignment to do any of these things. As I said, if you watch enough college clips you'll see this tactic is becoming increasingly common place. Even the NFL is starting to latch on. Of course what is needed to play this role is a solid all round defender; someone who can play zone coverage, can cover a slot receiver (typically a teams 3rd choice wide out) man-to-man, and someone who -- unlike a lot of corners -- has the balls to get stuck in against the run. Notice then that the Green Bay Packers are increasingly shifting CB Charles Woodson inside to handle this duty. Woodson can cover in both man and zone. He still has the speed to blitz. And he is a rare(ish) breed among corners in that he has no problems putting his shoulder in and taking on a lead blocking fullback or a pulling lineman. This I think is important. It sets a precedent for defensive coordinators in how to handle 3 wide receiver offensive sets. It also highlights the impact that a quality all-round Nickel back can bring to a modern NFL defense. I'd venture to say that rookie Syd'Quan Thompson of the Broncos fits the mold well and that increasingly we may see teams reach out in the draft in the next year or two looking for a well rounded corner prospect to come in and be a teams "Super Nickelback". Just a thought. Keep your eyes peeled and your ear to the ground on that one. Here's another thought while you're at it; in March/April of this year, the going trade rate for Michael Vick was a second round pick. It was widely believed that, that was all the Eagles would ask for him. Now I appreciate that much of his success in Philadelphia this year can be attributed to the next potential "Queen Prima Donna" of the NFL -- DeSean Jackson -- but still, Vick on his own is a formidable package. For a second round pick, he'd be looking like a complete steal right about now. Just check this out (you'll need to create an account. I tried embedding it but it's being an asshole.) Tomorrow I shall be back at some point with a quick recap of the Thursday Night game, but hopefully either attached to that post or somewhere in between that post and this one, I'd like to hand out my award for the "Most Improved Analyst From a Major Network" award. Or as I like to call it; the MIAFMN award. And the winner is..... don't be a cheap skate. Comeback tomorrow to find out. Laters.

Week 15 recap

Time to look back at the week that was... Week 15. New Orleans Saints 24 @ Baltimore Ravens 30: Would you credit it? All this time that the Ravens offense has spent flapping around ineffectually, week after week, then along come the Saints and suddenly the Ravens have an epiphany. "Wait! What if we feed the ball to Ray Rice! He was pretty good last year!". We'll congratu-f***ing-lations. Now can I have my pick back? Ray stormed the day, scoring two touchdowns (one on the ground, one in the air), leading his team in receiving yards and piling up over 150 yards on the ground off 30+ carries. This was the Ravens of old, the Ravens that went to the playoffs last year. The Saints were not the Saints of last year. Drew Brees ended up throwing nearly 50 times, completing 29 for 3 TD's and an interception. But there was little support from the run game. Last year I observed that the Saints scored a lot of their passing touchdowns on play-action, but at this rate their rushing attack will be barely worth honoring. Of course we've seen with the Colts that even a poor rushing attack isn't always a barrier to good play action. Regardless, after the 49ers/Chargers game, this result squares me up at 1-1 pick wise for the week. Arizona Cardinals 12 @ Carolina Panthers 19: Yep. I told you the Cardinals were that bad. And they were. John Skelton completed just 17/33 for 196 yards. Like a lot of coaching staffs, the Cardinals either simply refused to adapt to the reality of a rookie QB, or simply were just very keen to see how Skelton panned out with an eye to next year. The Panthers took a different approach. With the number one overall pick practically in the bag for 2011, they went back and revisited what has been a winning formula for them in recent years; turn around and hand the ball off to whoever is at running back. Mike Goodson got 10 carries, Jonathan Stewart 27. They didn't score between them, but at least they helped to build drives that ended in field goals. Exciting stuff when Arizona and Carolina meet. 2-1. Cleveland Browns 17 @ Cincinnati Bengals 19: The Bengals won a game! Christmas has come early in Cincinnati. And what an exciting game it was, as you can clearly see by the score. At least one person enjoyed it and that was Cedric Benson, who had 31 carries and 150 yards plus a TD. The sad fact about this game is that the Browns actually scored more touchdowns, with Colt McCoy returning to the lineup and throwing in both. But alas the Browns couldn't match the Bengals for putting together field goal ending drives. Possession and field position favoured Cincinnati. Four sacks on defense helped, including one for rookie Geno Atkins (watch list) and two for rookie Carlos Dunlap. And it dropped me to 2-2 in the picks. Washington Redskins 30 @ Dallas Cowboys 33: It was close for a while. I happen to like Rex Grossman, who can be something of a double edged sword. Sometimes he's very good. Sometimes he's an unmitigated disaster. This week he was a bit of both. 300+ yards and 4 TD's, as well as two 2-point conversions is not to be sniffed at. The two interceptions might generate a mild sniffle though. The Cowboys actually dragged their heels in the touchdown stakes, but again, field goals made up the difference, along with 5 sacks by the defense (including two for DeMarcus Ware). John Kitna did well, putting up 305 yards and 2 touchdowns of his own. The running game probably made the difference though. 27 carries between Felix Jones and Tashard Choice produced over 120 yards and a rushing TD for Choice. Perhaps critically it reduced turnovers in a game that was decided by 3 points. 3-2 Jackonsville Jaguars 24 @ Indianapolis Colts 34: The Jaguars tried to get cute with Peyton Manning. Generally that's not advisable, as the Jaguars have learned. Having watched the film of the Cowboys/Colts game, the Jaguars will have seen the Cowboys using a "Tampa 2" defense (two deep safeties, with the middle linebacker dropping into coverage up the middle to create a cover 3 look) to great effect. The Jaguars tried to emulate this success, but as is all too often in coaching, emulation without the inner understanding can be worse than just sticking with what you otherwise do really well. Manning obligingly ripped it up with 2 touchdowns. What was more surprising was the Colts sudden explosiveness in the run game and their sudden stoutness against the run on defense. Donald Brown busted out two long runs, one ending in a TD. That does tell you a lot about the Colts rushing attack though, as his 12 remaining carries generated about 30 yards. Maurice Jones-Drew on the other hand was held to just 46 yards from 15 carries. David Garrard had almost 300 yards passing, but it produced just 2 TD's and 1 interception. Both teams also had special teams returns for touchdowns, with Mike Thomas's 78 yard punt return scamper being a little more impressive than Tyjuan Hagler's 41-yard pick up of an obvious onside kick. 4-2 and doing well in the picks. Buffalo Bills 17 @ Miami Dolphins 14: Alright Buffalo!!! There's something about being English that compels me unconsciously to support underdogs at any opportunity. Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bills are definitely my favourite underdog right now. Fitzpatrick put up just over 200 yards passing, with 2 touchdowns and an interception. But I still have no idea how the Bills won this. Chad Henne managed to complete 33/45 passes. Thirty three completions. And yet that mustered just 276 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Talk about struggling to find that killer edge. The Dolphins looked to have taken strides to improve in the off season. But now? Man, there are some issues that need solving and I'm really not sure how the Dolphins go about it. On defense, the 'phins pulled out two sacks, including one for rookie watch lister Koa Misi, but the Bills even trumped them in that respect, producing three sacks, with LB Arthur Moats snagging 1.5 of them. 5-2 Philadelphia Eagles 38 @ New York Giants 31: I have absolutely no sympathy for teams like the Giants. None. With the kind of lead they had, all they had to do was see the game out. That was it. You don't even have to put together scoring drives anymore. You can be much more relaxed with your play calling, both offensively and defensively. You can afford to run the ball much more, driving down the field and using up the clock. And if anyone can run the ball right now, it's the Giants. On defense you can afford to play a little softer in coverage, using the odd zone blitz to get after an opposition offense that badly needs some big plays to get back in it. You have your opponent right where you want them. But somehow, somehow the Giants failed to capitalise on their dominant position. Having started the 4th quarter scoring with a TD, the Giants then proceeded to give up four unanswered touchdowns to the Eagles, including allowing the Eagles to recover an onside kick largely due to a failure to deploy their hands team, then finally getting the ball back only to have to punt.... and punting the ball right to DeSean Jackson who returned it 65 yards for the score as time expired. It was just second half game management ineptitude on a scale probably not seen before in the NFL. It was that bad that we probably wont ever see something like that again. If the now 9-5 Giants miss out on the playoffs and let the now 10-4 Eagles slip by, it could potentially cost Coach Tom Coughlin his job. It cost me a pick. 5-3. Kansas City Chiefs 27 @ St. Louis Rams 13: This is just simply not playing fair! Like most people, I had no idea that Matt Cassel was going to play until close to kick off, which kind of hampers a persons ability to make accurate picks. There is a lot of difference between Cassel and his current understudy Brodie Croyle. That difference was noticeable. Cassel didn't do anything particularly fancy, but then he never does. The great skill that Cassel seems to bring to the Chiefs is just not turning the ball over an excessive amount, with just one pick on Sunday to Sam Bradfords two. That's pretty much all the Chiefs need out of their QB right now. The defense and the running game does the rest. Chiefs RB's Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones combined for 33 carries, 188 yards and 2 TD's (one each). The defense produced three sacks, all by the hands of DE Wallace Gilberry. They also had two interceptions, both going to safety Kendrick Lewis (rookie watch list). Probably the biggest problem for the Rams though was their own quarterback, as Sam Bradford had an unusually off color performance, completing just 21/43 passes, for less than 200 yards and with those two interceptions. This was the Chiefs sticking to a tried and tested game plan. If they keep this up, there is no reason they can't reach the playoffs and make a good run when they get there. Unfortunately that drops me to 5-4 for my picks. Detroit Lions 23 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20: The Lions finally did it. They finally bucked their losing streak away from home. It's been a tough ride for the Lions and the game in Tampa was no exception, as it went right down to overtime after a game that was punctuated by brief spells of action. By some miracle the Lions managed to produce a 100 yard rusher, Maurice Morris (15 carries, 109 yards, 1 TD). The Buc's did too with rookie LaGarrette Blount (15 carries, 110 yards, 1 TD) who battled and fought and pummelled his way through the Lions defense. Trust me, it never gets tiresome watching Blount run. But the most impressive thing in this game has to be Drew Stanton, who was the number 3 guy only weeks ago and who now has lead the Lions to back to back wins. Much of the credit to how well the Lions offense has coped with the loss first of Matthew Stafford, and then his backup Shaun Hill, has to go to the Lions coaching staff. Fingers crossed on behalf of Lions fans that they can keep that up. Except when I pick them to lose of course, as I did this week. 5-5. Houston Texans 17 @ Tennessee Titans 31: No Vince Young? No problem say the Titans. We'll just sit back and let Chris Johnson carry the ball 24 times for 130 yards and a TD. Then we'll get Kerry Collins to throw 14/24 for 237 yards and another 2 touchdowns, against all previous expectations. Meanwhile on the Texans sideline, they responded to a first quarter performance that saw them give up 3 touchdowns by coming back gunning the ball downfield. The result was Matt Schaub throwing 35/54 for 325 yards and 2 touchdowns, 1 interception. That's good, but when you're chasing a big score that's not quite enough. I just don't get the Texans. They always seem to wait until the game is practically beyond their reach before they finally find the right gear and begin playing to their full potential. And they cost me another pick! I hate the Texans. 5-6. Atlanta Falcons 34 @ Seattle Seahawks 18: You can trust Atlanta. Like a good Ford automobile, they're reliable. As indeed are the Seahawks on most week ends. You can rely on them to stink up the field, which they did. With the win, the Falcons are now guaranteed a place in the postseason, which is where their form will really count. And they're on form alright. Matt Ryan may have only found the mark on 20 of his 35 passes, and for just 174 yards, but crucially he had 3 touchdowns to his one interception. Contrast that with the combination of Seattle quarterbacks Matt Hasselbeck and Charlie Whitehurst, who combined for zero passing touchdowns (Whitehurst had one rushing) and two interceptions. The Falcons were simply a class above the Seahawks. If they can keep this up, good things will happen in 2011, including a possible place in the NFC Championship game. They also helped me even out pick wise at this stage. 6-6. Denver Broncos 23 @ Oakland Raiders 39: Tim Tebow (rookie watch list) got his first start and made a pretty good impression, not least when he carried the ball 40 yards for a touchdown, despite several assertions from prominent footballing commentators before the draft that Tebow wouldn't be able to do such a thing given the speed of NFL defenses. Well that theory has been blown out of the water. Tebow finished the game with 8 carries for a team high 78 yards. He threw just 16 passes, completing 8 for 138 yards and another TD. It proved however to be not enough. The Raiders QB Jason Campbell put up 15/26 for 238 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. RB Darren McFadden had 20 carries for 119 yards. Michael Bush had 12 carries for just 24 yards, but also 2 touchdowns, and all this after Jacoby Ford opened the scoring with a 71 yard TD on a reverse. The win keeps alive the Raiders hopes of making the playoffs. For the Broncos it was a good early sign of things that might be in the ensuing years. For me, it was another pick well placed. 7-6. New York Jets 22 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 17: Mark Snachez hardly stunned once more. 19/29 for 170 yards. In all fairness, he did manage to rush home his teams only offensive score. But the Jets still look less than the Super Bowl worthy team that Rex Ryan thought told them they were and that many in the off season (including me) thought they might be. Still, can't turn your nose up at a win over the Steelers. There will of course be claims that without Troy Polamalu the Steelers weren't the same defense. Mainly because without him, they're not. But that doesn't explain why Ben Roethlisberger completed just 23/44 passes, with 1 TD and 1 interception. There is little that Polamalu could have done about that. It also doesn't explain how the Steelers got "home" for a sack just once compared to the Jets 3 sacks. Regardless. The Steelers have bagged a playoff berth thanks to results elsewhere going there way. They still haven't got the AFC North in the bag, but that's a work in progress that they should be able to handle. The Jets are still in the hunt themselves, looking predominantly for the chance to steal a wild card spot. They have the players, it's just a case of finally gelling this team into a solid and consistent unit. Based on the way they've played recently, that might take some doing. 7-7. Green Bay Packers 27 @ New England Patriots 31: Hands up who thought the game would be this close? Now put your hands down you liars. I don't think anyone presumed for a second that Matt Flynn would do as well as he did, reeling in the Patriots time and again. 24/37 for 251 yards, 3 TD's and 1 INT is not a bad days work for an understudy like Flynn, even if it was against the Patriots slightly flimsy defense. But Packers FB and so-so Carson Palmer look-a-like John Kuhn was the running highlight of the game for me, despite his low numbers (6 carries and 3 receptions). Barreling through tackles and jumping over defenders he set the tone for the Packers offense that was mirrored by RB Brandon Jackson. It's just a shame then that Kuhn's antics were overshadowed by probably the most hilarious thing ever to be seen on a football field; Patriots offensive guard Dan Connolly getting his hands on a short kickoff and returning it 71 yards, including a stiff arm and a nice cut back along the way. Connolly started off looking so out of place it was unreal, then suddenly channelled his inner Walter Payton to set up a short field for the Patriots offense. An offense that didn't really seem all that threatening, but still managed to score 3 touchdowns. Tom Brady was just 15/24 for 163 yards and 2 touchdowns (both to TE Aaron Hernandez (rookie watch list)). Part of the reason for their struggles was Packers DT B.J.Raji, who had two sacks and was a menace all night, much like his Patriots counterpart Vince Wilfork who shrugged off much of the Packers less than stellar blocking to make plays along the defensive line. All in all, the big special teams return plus Kyle Arringtons 36 yard "pick 6" might have been the only things that really saved the Patriots from what could have been a frustrating and slightly embarrassing loss. It also saved my pick. 8-7. Chicago Bears 40 @ Minnesota Vikings 14: Brett Favre; 5/7, 63 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception and potentially one career ending bash on the noggin, courtesy of the cold, hard field at TCF Bank Stadium, the Vikings current home away from home. It's almost certainly the end for Favre this year, and possibly forever (finally, for real this time). Having hit the turf, Favre didn't move for a good while. If there was a light on still, then there was most certainly nobody home. That should be enough for him to say goodbye, so long, and farewell. I doubt his wife will use such kind or restrained words though after seeing her husband lay motionless for a lot longer than most healthy human beings should. His replacement, Joe Webb, did as well as could be expected for a rookie who probably can't remember the last time he took a snap with the first team, if indeed he ever has. 15/26 for 129 yards and 2 INT's isn't great, but it's not the end of the world. He also carried the ball 6 times, including a 13 yard TD run that saw him dive for the pylon. At this point however we need to stop and take stock. We need to refocus. Because for all the drama surrounding the offense in Minnesota, it really is the defense that has to shoulder a substantial amount of the blame. Where are the sacks form last year? Where is the tight defensive unit that helped accompany the offense to the NFC Championship game? It's just disappeared, vanished into thin air. Jared Allen has been a non-factor this year. Ray Edwards is up for free agency in 2011, and he seems to be the only person playing like he's giving it his all. Let's put it this way. They gave up 40 points to the Bears. Ok so seven of those came on a punt return, but that still leaves 33 others to account for. And even though many of the points were booted through the uprights by Robbie Gould (4/4 on field goals), that doesn't excuse the fact that the Vikings defense gave up the yards to make those kicks a reality (the longest kick was just 34 yards). In the end Jay Cutler had quite an easy day. 14/24 for 194 yards, 3 touchdowns and just the one interception. RB Matt Forte had 17 carries for 92 yards. Devin Hester had a good day as well in the return game, returning a punt for a 64 yard touchdown and taking back a kickoff for 79 yards to leave a short field. All of the above means that the 2010 Bears have done the unthinkable; they've clinched the NFC North. Only God knows how they did it. But at least they kept me above even in my picks. 9-7. So after a hectic week, congratulations are in order to those teams that have already booked their place in the post season. Good luck to you. As for me, my Week 15 picks left me a disappointing 9-7. I was hoping to do much better. For the season that puts me at an equally disappointing 113-95. But what concerns me a bit more is the way I'm doing recaps. I just remember last year that I seemed to spend less time doing the recap, which allowed me to get them done in a more timely manner. I also feel that I spend more time this year just regurgitating numbers at people than last year, when I preferred to delve a little deeper into what was happening on the field. Hopefully I can buck this trend fairly shortly. Might need a rethink, me thinks. Anyway, until next time, Have a great day everyone.

Week 15 picks (part 2)

Five games left to pick, so let's get straight to business. Atlanta Falcons @ Seattle Seahawks: Pick Seattle? Not a chance. No way in hell. Not when the Falcons have played as well as they have this season and the Seahawks have played as badly as they have. And the Seahawks have indeed played badly. While their offense occasionally splutters into life and Matt Hasselbeck is able to find receivers down field, or Marshawn Lynch is able to come up with a big run, in general the Seahawks offense is terrible. They can't block very well. Their pass protection often borders on the amateurish. It's just a complete and utter shambles that often gets masked by their ability to generate points in the return game and to occasionally play very good defense. Albeit very occasionally. Compare and contrast that with the Falcons, who offensively do a lot of things very well. As in, everything. Michael Turner is having a great year behind an offensive line that routinely manages to bundle defenses out his path. Matt Ryan has been summoning his inner Joe Montana at times to lead his team on beautiful last minute drives. And Roddy White is putting on a Pro Bowl caliber season. The Falcons defense is no slouch either. Their pass rush has excelled as Kroy Biermann poses a genuine threat opposite John Abraham. Curtis Lofton is the rock at the center of an improving linebacking unit. And every now and again, even the secondary pitches in with a big play or two. It's just a team that is playing good all around football. Unlike the Seahawks. Falcons win. Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders: I'm preparing for a storm. I suggest you do to. Tim Tebow, the very famous quarterback from the University of Florida, will finally take to the NFL field as a starter. God help us. Now this may sound odd because I really like Tebow, enough to stick him on my watch list. So why the concern? Because the Broncos suck right now and expecting Tebow to waltz onto the field right at the end of the season and perform a football magic trick is unrealistic. It's good for him to get playing time, but it's more of a test run that a final evaluation. Except we all know that's not how the press works when it comes to football. A lot of people are going to be expecting Tebow to just go out there and perform like he was still with the Gators. Certainly the Tebow haters will be waiting with bated breath (yes, that is the correct spelling, go and check) to pounce. I can hear the sound of a thousand knives being sharpened, ready to be plunged into Tim if he produces anything less than a 100 QB rating. It doesn't help that he'll kick off his starting career with a game against the Raiders, who -- other than the odd bout of temporary organisational memory loss -- are very good (ish). They have a good (ish) offense. They have a good (ish) defense. They even have a pretty good (ish) return game. And let's face it, the Broncos are the Broncos, which means everything possible that could go wrong probably will. Raiders win. New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers: This game has the potential to get real ugly, real quickly. Mark Sanchez struggled against the Patriots. He struggled against the Dolphins. What is he going to do against the Steelers? I think Dick LeBeau is probably sitting in his office right now, licking his chops and digging into his playbook looking for ways to force Sanchez into repeatedly making mistakes. He'll have to do it without Tory Polamalu though, who I understand will miss the Steelers final three games of the regular season due an Achilles injury. That's a serious blow to this defense, as we all know about the play making abilities of Polamalu. But they should be comforted by the fact that they have the best front seven in football right now. That should be more than enough to overwhelm the Jets unusually shaky O-line and it's 2nd year QB who is most definitely off form. If the Jets can just get their receivers to catch a few more passes, they might be in with a fighting chance, but that also presumes that Rex Ryan's defense will come up good. That for me is where the biggest surprise lays. Watching the Jets defense against the Patriots was almost painful at times. How did they fall apart so tremendously? Even against the terrible Dolphins they struggled. Very un-Ryan like defensive play. Not that the Steelers offense is bordering on anything approaching juggernaut status. But they do seem to have that knack of coming good at the right moments. Given a shot or two due to Sanchez mistakes, Roethlisberger and the Steelers could pounce mercilessly. Or they could fall flat on their face. I'm going with number 1. Steelers win. Green Bay Packers @ New England Patriots: Last week the Packers fell to the Lions after Aaron Rodgers found his head introduced rather abruptly to the cold, hard turf. Matt Flynn was his plucky replacement... and that didn't go so well. Now remember that the Patriots defense is one of the league leaders in interceptions and that the Patriots offense is light years ahead of the Lions offense that only managed 7 points (enough for a win) last week. I'll keep this one short. Patriots win. Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings: All hail Joe Webb! For he shall be the starting quarterback of the Vikings on Monday at TCF stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota, the Vikings home away from home. At least until they get that retarded roof fixed at their proper home. Now, I actually happen to like Joe Webb. From what we saw of him in pre-season he appeared to have picked up the offense well, and very much unlike Favre he actually had some good mobility in his legs. Is that enough to beat the Bears? It depends. The Bears are not a team that indulges in a lot of fancy blitzing, preferring their straight and simple cover two look instead. That will help Webb. What would also help would be a hefty dose of Adrian Peterson, if only to take some of the pressure off of Webb and help him to settle into the game early. Even then, he still has to deal with a Bears defense that -- other than the odd blip -- has been very, very good this year. Very sound and very good at stripping ball carriers. The question for me is really whether the Bears offense can overcome the Vikings slightly more toothless 2010 pass rush and put just enough points on the board to win it? That could prove difficult as Jay Cutler isn't exactly firing on all cylinders this year. The run game had a brief Forte into the limelight (chortle, chortle) but has since fizzled out. I have a feeling this one will be a low scorer and Jay Cutler will produce just enough. Bears win. Have a great day everyone.