2011 Season Week One; Thursday Night Football

New Orleans Saints 34 @ Green Bay Packers 42

Well, we knew it was going to be a shootout, but wow. Just wow. 42 to 34, with the Saints having a shot wit no time on the clock from the 1 yard line to make it 42-40 and the possibility of a two point conversion to send an amazing game into overtime. But they blew it.

Mark Ingram stuffed, Lambeau Field goes nuts, Saints Coach Sean Peyton looks angry and Commissioner Roger Goodell rubs his hands with glee as the perceived value and entertainment of football shoots up over night.

It would be negligent however to not break down some of the interesting points in this game. For those expecting College style scorelines in every match up this season, don't be fooled. We did see a lot of 3, 4 and 5 receiver sets, which some other teams will also use this year, but what we also saw was some shoddy tackling.

This may or may not be related to the new rules regarding hitting certain players, the volley of fines that we saw last year, and the new rules on how much practice in pads that teams can now do. It may just be related to poor coaching or even just poor play. It may be related to that god forsaken carpet that the Saints like to refer to as "turf" (no it's not, it's a carpet).

Regardless, some of the tackling was terrible. Randall Cobb returned a kick off 108 yards (tying the record for the longest kick off return), but as much as I love Cobb and have said many times that I think he's going to be a great receiver for the Packers, there were more than enough chances for people to get a tackle in.

The same with Darren Sproles's 72 yard punt return. It wasn't so much tackling in this case as people just hesistant to make contact, hesistant to do anything that might draw a flag or a fine. Honestly I worry about football. The culmination of various rule changes and developments is starting to take the sting out of defensive players.

Still, credit where credit is due, both teams let rip with their offenses in search of points and they found plenty of those. Drew Brees ended the game 32/49 for 419 yards and 3 touchdowns. To lose after that kind of performance has to put a serious downer on your week.

He hit a multitude of receivers, with six different guys catching over four passes each; Devery Henderson - 6/9 for 100 yards and a TD, Marques Colston - 6/9 for 81 yards, Darren Sproles - 7/9 for 75 yards, Robert Meachem - 5/8 for 70 yards and a TD, Jimmy Graham - 4/7 for 56 yards and a TD, Pierre Thomas - 4/5 for 37 yards.

Normally those kind of numbers would designate the fact that the Saints had just rolled their opponents over in easy fashion and walked off with the game before the second half had even begun. But here it was merely indicative of the Saints trying to keep up with Green Bay.

21-7 going into the second quarter. That's how explosively the Packers began. And they never really stopped. Aaron Rodgers ended the game 27/35 for 312 yards and 3 TD's. Add on two more touchdowns from backs John Kuhn and James Starks, plus that Cobb kickoff return for a touchdown and you have your ball game.

Yet despite the relatively secondary role that the running game had in this contest, the touchdowns by Starks and Kuhn actually tell us a lot about what went wrong for New Orleans. Compare the red zone efficiency of both teams for a second; The Packers were 4/4, the Saints 1/5. As we've seen from their impressive numbers, the Saints had little trouble pushing the ball down field, they just couldn't finish off some of those drives.

The respective offensive lines had much to do with this, as I outlined yesterday. The Saints defense struggled to generate much pressure and finished the game with 2 sacks and 2 additional QB hits. The Packers had 3 sacks, two more hits from Clay Matthews, and often appeared to be swarming in on Brees at the last second.

The difference was subtle, but it was there. Coupled with the superior performance of the Packers rushing attack, the Green Bay offensive line definitely won that particular battle.

But a little bit of me still thinks that this game might be the exception in terms of scorelines, not the rule. I felt both teams laid back somewhat in terms of their pass rush, something that I don't think they'll a) do again themselves, or b) see other teams try on them. I can't see the Steelers, or the Ravens, or the Jets playing their defense as conservatively as both teams did here.

There is still no definitive answer as to how you beat a "Spread Offense". Part of the reason is because the term spread offense is used to cover lots of different offenses that are in fact fundamentally different, they just happen to use wide open offensive formations.

But I think one thing we are starting to learn is that sitting back and playing soft coverage is not the answer. This game should stand as a testament to that. As should the success of guys like Rex Ryan against various teams.

Expect to see the pressure get ridiculously dialed up all across the country from now on, as defensive coordinators try to test the opposing quarterbacks mettle - and his offensive line - rather than sitting back and waiting to die by a thousand cuts.

The Saints had a go at it in this game, but they left their corners badly exposed in off coverage and - lacking any natural pass rushers - struggled to get home quick enough. When the Packers tried it they had much more success, although still occasionally found their coverage a little soft.

There's something for you to keep an eye out for this weekend.

Which reminds me, I must pick the winners! But that will be for another day, either Friday or Saturday night, depending on how my schedule pans out. I'm also planning to pick up the "Lombardi Watch" once more, by disectting a recent article from NFL Network analyst Michael Lombardi.

Until then, enjoy your day and your Friday night.

2011 Season Week One: New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers

Less than 24 hours.

That's how long we now have to wait till the start of the 2011 NFL season. And against my better judgement I'm going to dip a toe into the water and make a pick for the starting clash.

New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers
For the second year in a row the Saints get to kick off the season, this time facing down the Green Bay Packers. Back at the start of the 2010 season the Saints met the Vikings as the defending Super Bowl Champions. Now it's the Packers who hold that honour.

And I'll just cut straight to it, I think the Packers have this.

Last season the Saints just didn't look the same as their Super Bowl winning year. The Defense was still good, but if anything the offense seemed to tail off a little compared to the ease that it displayed in shredding people during the '09 season. At times the performance of the starters during this pre-season have not been much better.

The key for me is the Saints O-line, as well as the loss of tight end Jeremy Shockey. I know the Saints have second year player Jimmy Graham who they feel really good about, but I'm just not sure he offers them what Shockey did in '09, or that teams respect him as much.

Looking at the Saints roster, I think they've sold their offensive line short in favour of running backs. They have Darren Sproles, Joique Bell, Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram, plus two more fullbacks, which kind of makes you wonder why given that the Saints aren't exactly heavy runners of the ball early on in games.

I just think that the O-line lacks depth and immediate quality. Bushrod is good and I think Charles Brown will develop in time, but for 2011 I just don't think Drew Brees is going to enjoy the time that he is normally afforded in the pocket. The hope for Saints fans will be the fact that Brees is still very good when it comes to timing and getting the ball out of his hands.

That won't be easy against the Packers though. Their pass rush is pretty well known now for its fearsome nature and by the looks of it they plan on keeping it that way, carrying 6 outside rushing backers into the season! Couple that with a very good secondary and the Packers are probably one of the best equipped teams to handle a pass heavy attack like that of the Saints.

Couple that with an explosive offense and you have your magic. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is one of the best quarterbacks in the league right now and he eased through the pre-season, appearing to have picked up with his receivers precisely where he left off in the Super Bowl.

This means we're set up for a shoot out, with both teams looking to stretch out an early lead, force the other team to come back with the passing game, at which point they can let loose their pass rush. And despite all the big name linebackers, defensive linemen, receivers, quarterbacks etc, I think it's the big guys up front on offense who will decide this.

I think the Packers O-line will cope better than the Saints. The Saints pass rush isn't as naturally strong and that will force coordinator Greg Williams to dip deeper into his playbook as a result, which creates opportunities for mistakes and miscommunications that a guy like Aaron Rodgers can exploit. I think the Packers get ahead and stay there. Packers win.

Right, I'll be back after the game with a recap of sorts and then at some point before Sunday I need to make picks for all the weekends games. I'll see you then.

2011 NFL Draft; The New Orleans Saints

Before we begin I should point out that yes, I did say it was going to be the Panthers next. But for some reason I can't explain I just started the Saints post yesterday and it wasn't until I reached the very bottom of the post after spellchecking that I suddenly realised what I'd done.

And you can fuck right off if you think I'm doing an entire post about Carolina at this hour. Tough. Here's the Saints;

It's been a funny old time for New Orleans in recent years. In 2008 Drew Brees very nearly topped Dan Marinos' record for most passing yards in the regular season. This would have been a reason for great joy, were it not for the fact that the Saints defense absolutely sucked.

Then in '09 it all seemed to come together. From worst to first, their offense flourished again but so did the defense, culminating in a date with the Indianapolis Colts in their first ever Super Bowl and subsequently a win. The 'Lombardi Gras' swept across New Orleans.

Then in '10 it all went a bit wrong. The offense started to occasionally misfire and the defense went into recession. The final humiliating blow was a loss to Seattle in the first round of the playoffs, a bitter pill to swallow given that the general consensus script said that they should have walked into Washington State and shown those dastardly Seahawks just why it is that 7-9 teams shouldn't be allowed into the playoffs.

The 2011 draft was supposed to be about the Saints getting back on the horse ready for another charge at the Super Bowl. All that was standing in their way was a tricky free agent period, where they expected to lose a number of players. But everything would be alright on the night, right? They could bring a few players in and then shore up any last ditch holes in the draft.

Except that the Union formerly known as the NFLPA threw its toys out of the pram, got up and left the negotiating table, decertified, and now here we are, deep in the middle of a bitterly fought legal battle and lockout.

That left the Saints on uncertain ground headed into the draft. With so many players headed out the door into (eventually) free agency there might have been a temptation for the Saints to work their way down the draft order and accumulate picks. Instead they chose to go in quite the opposite direction.

It all started in the first round with the selection of Defensive End Cameron Jordan with the 24th selection overall. I'm a little surprised simply because I feel that of all the issues that the Saints had, D-line wasn't really one of them. Never the less, pick him they did so the question becomes did they make the right choice?

It's hard to say. I don't mean that in the sense of "I'm copping out of making a decision". I mean it in the sense that a lot of the time in college it wasn't hard to find Jordan, because he was the one with two offensive linemen climbing all over him in an attempt to smother him.

Thus drawing an accurate conclusion based on the fact that he's unlikely to see such attention in the NFL can be difficult. One thing he did display constantly was good strength and a strong desire to chase down plays from behind, for which we have to give him credit. The fact that he was able to achieve the things he did under such pressure from the O-line is a testament to him.

Tentatively then, I'm going to nod in an approving manner at picking Jordan. One of the things that New Orleans has struggled with recently has been pass rush and Jordan offers them hope in the sense that even if all he ever does is occupy blockers and cause a lot of havoc up front, that still gives his rushing linebackers a better chance to get to the QB.

Next up is Running Back Mark Ingram, whom the Saints traded up to get, oddly enough doing a deal with the Patriots to get the 28th pick overall, which is the place where many expected the Patriots to take; Mark Ingram.

The price was a second rounder in 2011 and a first rounder in 2012. And that's what has been causing me a little bit of a problem with this pick. That's a lot to give up just to get your hands on a running back. I say that because the success of running backs is often linked quite significantly to the play of their offensive lines. I'm just not sure, given the depth of the running back class, that this was such a clever decision.

Add to that the fact that the Saints already have a solid back in Pierre Thomas, have Chris Ivory who showed a lot of promise in his rookie year, and still tentatively have Joique Bell and Reggie Bush, providing neither of those two is dumped.

Ingram does offer the Saints something in the sense that he can relieve the pressure off Thomas to be an every down, all the time back, but then Ivory and Bell could have done that as well. Ingram is strong and has some other desirable attributes you want in a running back, but I think the cost of the trade is a problem, especially looking at what was left on the board and where else the Saints could have gone (safety, pass rushing linebacker)

Onto round three then as the Saints gave up that second round pick, and here they double dipped, first at number 72 thanks to a trade with Washington the year before, then their own pick at 88.

At 72 they went Linebacker with Martez Wilson, who I really, really can't buy. The issue I have with Wilson is simple; linebackers are supposed to be baby eating demons who are 24/7 hungry for contact. Wilson seems to be the opposite. He always seemed to be looking for someone else to initiate that contact, then he might follow up in necessary.

Again, this is just the impression I got watching him. He could indeed be a baby eating demon who is hungry for contact 24/7. But if I was a betting man, I'd bet against it. Who knows, maybe he'll read this one day and to the delight of all New Orleans fans he'll ram these words back down my throat. Again though, if I was a betting man....

At number 88 the Saints went with Johnny Patrick, cornerback from Louisville. And right here I think they hit a beauty. I really like Patrick because of his combination of strength against the run and talent in pass coverage. One thing I noted especially was his versatility, including rushing the quarterback from a nickel position.

With Tracey Porter and Jabari Greer on the team, that means if Patrick is going to hit the field, then nickelback is his best shot. When you factor in as well that Gregg Williams isn't averse to a bit of risk taking, including blitzing secondary players, then I think we have a great combination on our hands.

Probably the only other more ideal place for Patrick might have been Green Bay, but New Orleans should serve him well. I think the Saints got a good corner prospect with this pick and somebody that fits their system as well, which is an added bonus. There is a possibility, especially given the free agent situation, that he might have to move to Strong Safety which I think he has the skills to cope with.

Now, due to the machinations of various trades, the Saints then went without a pick until the seventh round, where they double dipped again thanks to a compensatory selection. Which gives us a moment to pause and reflect on what will happen when the compensatory picks are dished out as a result of the 2011 free agency period. New Orleans could be big winners in the 2012 draft.

So, picking 226th overall, the Saints took Greg Romeus, the defensive end from Pittsburgh. He had a back surgery last year that restricted his season but man, if Romeus can recapture his earlier college form (and there is nothing to currently suggest that he wont), then the Saints just grabbed a bargain.

Romeus is by no means flawless. He lacks great speed and sometimes finds himself tricked out on certain running plays, plowing down the line to pursue a fullback that doesn't have the ball and leaving the edge open. But that, if not so much the speed, is coachable.

What he does possess is tremendous strength combined with great use of the hands in the pass rush, and a really relentless drive to pursue the QB. Not sure at this stage whether he'd play as a defensive end or a stand up rush linebacker, but either way I think Romeus has a lot to offer the Saints.

At 243rd overall the Saints went with Linebacker Nate Bussey and wouldn't you just bloody know it, I haven't seen a second of the kid because he wasn't on my radar. So, off I got to investigate and here you get your explanation as to why this post took longer than expected. The things I do for you guys.

And on that quick note hello to everyone in the US, Italy, Denmark and Slovenia who according to Blogger seem to have been, over the last six months or so, the main readers. Obviously the US is well in the lead, but the other three are no slouches themselves, with Italy leading the drive.

Back to Bussey and all I can say is; that was a waste of life. Bussey spent most of his time playing as a kind of bizarre, overweight nickelback. His pass coverage was nothing to write home about and against downfield speed he got toasted more thoroughly than the semi-burnt piece of bread that I'm currently munching on, and that provided me with a handy idea for an analogy.

Tackling was ok but when that is your one and only positively identifiable attribute, and I absolutely mean that, then you have problems. But it's a seventh round pick to be fair and most teams don't expect much from them, which to me is quite a lazy excuse for not properly doing your homework.

Overall then? There's a large piece of me that seems to instinctively hate the Saints, if only because I felt that they kind of got a little lucky along the path to their Super Bowl and nobody seemed to acknowledge that fact, not that it's the Saints fault. You play the hand you're dealt.

But I can't say it was a bad draft. Perhaps they gave up too much for Ingram, but if he can prove to be a more versatile and reliable back than Reggie Bush, then you could argue that he compliments well what is undoubtedly a fearsome passing attack.

Defensively I think they drafted well though. Perhaps they might consider getting a new scout for linebackers in 2012, but other than that I tip my hat to the Saints draft. Jordan, Patrick and Romeus are all good players, and in particular Romeus was a bit of a steal taken as late as he was.

All that should help the Saints with that key problem of reliable pass rush and run defense that they've had in recent seasons. Remember as well that in '09 the Saints proved that their defense only has to get a little bit better, maybe be a top 16 contender, to provide the necessary compliment for that explosive offense. Free agency will be interesting for the Saints, but at this rate it looks like they might end up back in the playoffs in 2011.

NFC South Prospects

So I planned this going up earlier, but when you over sleep, you over sleep. Again, we'll do this alphabetically. Atlanta Falcons: Having stormed the regular season, it might be easy to think that Atlanta will simply come back next year and everything will be the same once more. Right? They won 13 games. 13!!! Surely that's not the kind of team you need to go toying around with? But it is. We can't get away from the fact that Atlanta did, at many times, ride their luck. Trust me, I'm a 49ers fan. We took a bitter loss early-ish in the season when we should have walked home safely with the win. Unfortunately our defensive backs are fond of carrying the ball on interception and fumble returns as if they were parading the Super Bowl around Candlestick Park. Now I should temper that by saying that you don't win 13 games purely on the back of luck. Nobody is that lucky. It does take some input for the players and coaches beyond just "show up, be lucky". But the stage is set for potentially a big fall in 2011, so free agency and the draft could be a dicey time for the Falcons this year. In free agency both the Falcons punter and kicker are up for unrestricted free agency, as are some other important names like; offensive linemen Justin Blalock, Harvey Dahl & Tyson Clabo, WR Brian Finneran, and running backs Jerious Norwood and Jason Snelling. That's a big loss to the Falcons if those guys leave. The offensive line has been a consistent strength for Atlanta over the last few seasons, while Norwood and Snelling have been solid back ups to Michael Turner who has had some issues with injury. If all of those guys leave, expect the Falcons to take a big step back right there. On the restricted list is two names that are also worth mentioning. One is Brent Grimes, the cornerback who had an exceptional season for Atlanta this year. The other is receiver Eric Weems, who became a big impact player in the return game. As restricted free agents their departure is less likely, but don't forget for example that the Patriots are lurking and have two picks in every round. Belichick might just feel like parting with a pick to acquire a player of Grimes's ability to boost his ailing secondary. As for the draft? Even if the Falcons get most of their free agents back, their offensive line could use a lower pick for some depth, their linebacking corps could use one more key player to take the field with Lofton and Weatherspoon, and the defensive back corps badly needs upgrading. A shiny new receiver wouldn't go amiss either. Atlanta picks 27th overall in the first round. Looking ahead to 2011 it could go either way. The Buccaneers are on the rise. The Panthers may be too, depending on how well their off season goes. The Saints had another strong year in 2010 and so Atlanta's 13 win record is in serious danger this season. If they stumble in the off season it is perfectly foreseeable that they might finish 3rd in 2011. Still, they always have Matty "Ice". Yeah, don't hold your breath. Carolina Panthers: It's all change in Carolina after a shockingly bad season. Ron Rivera, former Chargers defensive coordinator, will be taking over the head coaching role this season. Good luck to you sir. Rob Chudzinski will run the offense, having previously served as the Chargers tight ends coach. That might be a surprise success (notice I said might) as the Chargers have done well at the tight end position recently and Rivera obviously knows the guy from working with him, so he must have some faith in his abilities. Sean McDermott, formerly of the Eagles, will take over the defense. Which is where things get interesting. Both Rivera and McDermott are more 3-4 pedigree guys. The Panthers are all about the 4-3. Will they take the same approach Washington did in the off season and try to make the switch to a 3 man front? They're certainly bursting with pass rush talent, so maybe they'll try and get some of those guys to take their hands out of the dirt and rush from a two point stance? It's not all doom and gloom though. McDermott may have come from a 3-4 lineage, but the Eagles have essentially been running 4-3 for the last couple of seasons so he has some experience handling this type of front. It's just the tools that pose the big problem, and how to get the best out of them. In free agency the Panthers have a long list to keep an eye on. Some of the names that jump out at me are tight ends Jeff King and Dante Rosario, whose departure would leave the Panthers with just Gary Barnidge. That's not good, especially as the Panthers have leaned on their tight ends a lot lately. King and Rosario (and Barnidge) don't get anywhere near enough credit for what they do for the Panthers. The big name on the way out of course is RB DeAngelo Williams. I've said it before and I'll say it again; I think the Panthers should let him leave. They have Jonathan Stewart, who is a very good back. They have Mike Goodson who is a pretty good back up. They really don't need Williams now. Better to let him go and use some of the free cap money to improve the rest of the team. Two other names that stick out from the list are Center Ryan Kalil and QB Matt Moore. Moore is the big one. Do they bring him back for another shot? Do they roll with Jimmy Clausen and Tony Pike? Or do they hit the draft and bring in yet another QB fresh from the college game? Glad I'm not running the Panthers, that's all I'll say. Which brings us neatly to the draft itself. They have the number one pick overall and they have needs all over the shop. If they can, my guess is the Panthers will drop down the draft ladder. They seriously need the extra picks to start covering all these holes. Wide Receiver is a huge hole, defensive back is a huge hole. They could use another quality linebacker. They need a QB from somewhere. And they might need some new tight ends as well. Honestly, 2011 for the Panthers will center on rebuilding. Panther fans should brace for another crappy season, not because they can't compete but because it is time for someone to come in and stamp their mark on this team. That means saying "this is how we're going to play, but it'll take some time to get it right, even if we lose some along the way". Patience from the fan base will be required. More importantly, patience from the ownership will be required too. Good luck Carolina, I don't hate you really. Well. Maybe a little. New Orleans Saints: The Saints had the dubious honour of being the first NFL team to get dumped in the playoffs by a team with a losing record. Nice work guys. But they did us all a favour really. They proved that the "any given Sunday" rule can still happen in the modern NFL and that even a 7-9 team should be allowed in if it wins it's division. So where now for the Saints? Well, they've managed to keep hold of their coaching staff, but free agency is going to be all kinds of fun. By my maths they have 27 unrestricted free agents. Twenty seven. If you draw up the list of players at each position that will be left if all the free agents leave, it looks like a High School team where the offensive starters are defensive backups and vice versa. I'm just going to list some of the notables; Jermon Bushrod OT, Heath Evans FB, Jonathan Goodwin C, Anthony Hargrove DE/DT, Roman Harper S, Julius Jones RB, Kawika Mitchell LB, Lance Moore WR, Courtney Roby WR, Scott Shanle LB, Darren Sharper S and Pierre Thomas RB. Now as far as the running backs are concerned, that's not a huge issue for the Saints. They have spares so to speak. Wide receiver is an issue of sorts, given how wide open the Saints like to play. Charles Brown could fill for Bushrod, depending on how well he's developed since the 2010 draft. But linebacker and safety are two huge concerns for the Saints. Picking 24 in the draft, I see this being a very defense heavy approach. Unless they can bring some guys back or reach out into free agency and find some talent, the linebacking and safety corps are going to be barren come draft day. I imagine the Saints will prioritise their pass rush, given their tendency to jump ahead of teams in games and forcing them to pass to get back into the game. 2011 outlook then? Erm, grim I would say. Sort of. The Buccaneers are rising. Atlanta can come back strong. Carolina will be... Carolina. But the Saints defense is going to be holding its breath this offseason. If they can't recoup their loses then it's going to be a miserable year for the 2011 Saints. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Ah Tampa Bay, the pirates that you can trust. Sort of. They had a resurgence in 2010 off the back of some exceptional work by Josh Freeman. Sort of. And some greatly improved defensive play. Sort of. Free agency offers up a mixed bag for the Buc's. Some names stand out at me; Ronde Barber CB, Quincy Black LB, Barrett Ruud LB and Jeremy Trueblood OT. Barber is a mixed bag. He's old, but he still seems to come up with plays now and again. Trueblood's loss will be a problem, but Black and Ruud are the main concerns. The Buc's have some talent at linebacker, but they need Ruud and Black back to support their defense. As for the draft, they pick at 20 which is almost unknown territory for the Buc's in recent years. Where will they go with this? I honestly am not sure. After last years performance in the draft and with signing undrafted free agents, the Buc's are in a nice spot. I imagine that the subject of running backs will eventually come up, as LaGarrette Blount can't do it all himself. A true pass rushing defensive end will probably top the list unless they decide to slide McCoy over (where he's shown potential). Another receiver would be nice, as well as another inside linebacker. Overall though, the 2011 Buccaneers have their sights on the playoffs. Their division could be in a very vulnerable state this year. If the Falcons lose their O-line and the Saints lose their defense, to free agency that is, then nothing is standing in the way of Tampa having a run at the division title. Even just a moderately good free agency and draft will set them up nicely. So with that, we come to the end of the NFC South 2011 preview thingy. Next up is the NFC West, which will be posted around Thursday or Friday. As for the CBA situation.... err, nothing has changed. We're still headed towards a delayed start to the 2011 season and honestly I've given up caring to some degree. The arguments being put forward by both sides are mundane in the extreme, neither side seems to really give a shit about the fans and their persistence in trying to convince us of how wonderful they are and how evil the other side is doesn't wash. As always in these things, it's all about the money and has nothing to do with the quality of the game and fairness. If it did, we could probably solve all this crap in a few hours with some strong coffee, swiss iced buns and a few well placed punches. Have a great day everyone.

Wildcard Weekend (part 2)

New Orleans Saints 36 @ Seattle Seahawks 41 Ho-ly-sh... you get the idea. I said it. I didn't think they'd do it but the Seahawks just came out, let it all go and it paid off big time. They dug into their bag of tricks and came out with some unusual stuff. Fake screens, hook-and-spin routes etc, with a healthy dose of shocking defense by the Saints. But the real point that should be made, the real winner here, was the determination and sheer effort by the Seahawks players. We often talk about these kind of things on blogs, in books and on TV. You see hokey films about pulling together and going all out for one another, but nobody ever seems to put the words into practice. You see people try, then give up. Well the Seahawks didn't. They gave us a shining example of mental strength pushing the body to new levels and how teamwork & hustle can truly make a big difference in football. Marshawn Lynch's TD run was a great demonstration of that as QB Matt Hasselbeck was among those Seahawks racing down the field to help their team mate get the score. We can't forget completely about the losers though. We have to take our collective hats off I think (gentlemen, if you please) to the New Orleans Saints offense. Without his starting running backs Drew Brees was forced to throw 39/60 (sixty!!) for 404 yards and 2 TD's with no interceptions. It was a huge effort and let's not overlook the fact that traditionally speaking, when you score 36 points, you have a tendency to win a lot of games. So I wouldn't begrudge the Saints offense for shooting some killer looks at the defense who were about as stout, rugged and effective as a drill bit made from chocolate. The tackling, the coverage, the whole works. It was just all around poor defense. I dunno, maybe defensive coordinator Greg Williams was distracted this week with potential job offers on the table, but man, that defense just wasn't the same as it was last year. They looked like the 2008 group that stunk it up on a regular basis. So now the Seahawks progress to the divisional round. Up next? If Green Bay wins the other NFC Wildcard game on Sunday, then the Seahawks head to Chicago. If the Eagles win, the Seahawks have a date with Atlanta. In the meantime the Seahawks and their fans have time to boogey: New York Jets 17 @ Indianapolis Colts 16 Some how, some way, the Jets did it. Mark Sanchez was awful. 18/31 for 189 yards and an INT. He was throwing loose passes all over the field and was lucky not to get picked off more than just the once. But fate has a funny way of twisting at this time of year. The Colts ran the ball. And kept running it. I know that I've often suggested that the Colts might benefit from running a little more, but this isn't quite what I had in mind. Actually, scrap that. This is nothing like what I had in mind. 27 runs? By the colts? And Manning threw just 18/26? What? The most mind boggling for me was the Colts approach on third down. When I think of predominantly pass first teams like the Colts running the ball, I'm thinking first and second down. Maybe the occasional sneaky run on third down. But to go for a near all out attack on third down using the run? No, surely not. It doesn't matter if I had one yard to go, two, three, four, or eight, whatever, I would be trusting that down and our offenses continued possession of the ball to Peyton Manning. I certainly wouldn't be overly keen to be handing the ball off to Dominic Rhodes. Joseph Addai I can live with, but I'd much rather see Addai in pass protection or running a route on 3rd down, with my golden boy surveying the field and doing his thing. Not so the Jets, who apparently got sick and tired of Sanchez throwing the ball to invisible receivers and thus decided to break out their rushing attack for a change. You remember right, that same rushing attack that allowed them to somewhat protect Sanchez last season and helped them to get to the AFC Championship game? Yeah that one. LaDanian Tomlinson. That's all I'm saying. Ok, I'll say a little more. 16 carries, 82 yards, 2 TD's. The guy looks fresh and ready to roll in these playoffs. Just when everyone has smacked Tomlinson down once more, along come the Jets to remind everyone that essentially the offensive line dictates a big part of how many yards a running back gets. Thus guys like Tomlinson have little to fear. He still has the burst to hit a hole and fall forwards for yards, possibly for another 2 or 3 years providing there is no major upheaval in the Jets O-line. Now finally I'd like to end on a complaint, or two, because God knows I love me a moan. The first issue in question is the "roughing the kicker" called against the Colts. I appreciate that under the letter of the law, that was a penalty. I'm not disputing that. But what I will dispute is that in the offseason that rule needs to be changed. If that degree of contact is what constitutes "roughing" in the modern world, then for the last 10 years or so, anytime I've ever got off a bus during the rush hour I've committed numerous fouls for "roughing". In my opinion, the Colts rusher was making an active attempt to pull up at the end and avoid any serious, hard hitting collision with the kicker. Or to put it another way, he could have just drilled the guys standing leg and left him in a crippled heap, but he didn't. Contact like this, while only a very small part of the game, helps to enforce the wider image that the NFL is turning "soft". If the league is going to continue to be as successful as it has been, it needs to hold onto the fans it has and that means reversing this trend of perceived or actual "softness" in the game. The second thing I want to bitch about is the Colts calling a timeout with 29 seconds left as the Jets were driving for the winning field goal. My question is simply; why? On the sidelines, Manning looked pissed off and I can sympathise with that. It set up a pass by Sanchez to Edwards on the next play, which set the Jets up for a 32-yard field goal to win the game. It just blows the mind sometimes. Do the Colts not have a plan for this? Why do team keep making these critical errors in time management, week after damn week? Given the huge salaries involved, as an owner I would be chewing glass right about now, wondering what in the hell I was forking out the big bucks for given that I could probably hire a high school coach to come in and manage the clock better than that, at far less expense. But enough complaining, at least for now. As the number six seed, the Jets will now go on to play Tom Brady and the Patriots. Maybe Rex was right? Maybe he does have a Super Bowl winning team at hand. I'll wait and see how Sanchez gets on first if that's ok everyone. And onto the preview of Sunday's games. Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs (1:00pm ET, CBS) (6:00pm GMT, Sky Sports 2) The Ravens at the Chiefs, as running game clashes with running game. What intrigues me, because I'm a sad git who gets intrigued by otherwise uninteresting things, is the style clash that will take place between the three main runners on Sunday. First we have Jamaal Charles of the Chiefs. Charles is all about the speed. In the open field he can light teams up just as easily as Chris Johnson of the Titans. Typically with Charles you'll see the Chiefs run a "stretch" style play, where the offensive line all moves in one direction at the snap, looking to get the jump on their respective D-linemen and seal them inside using what we call a "reach" block. The idea is to cutoff the defense, pin them inside and then let Charles go flying around the outside and up the field with his speed. Thomas Jones of the Chiefs is very different. Coming from the Jets last year and, if we're honest, getting a little long in the tooth right now, Jones is more of you inside style rusher. Typically you'll see the Chiefs start off moving in one direction, similar to the stretch play above, but with a tight end and/or a fullback coming back against the flow to help kick out defenders on the backside and create a void up the middle for Jones, where he can use his power, toughness and, let's face it, big brass balls to drive right through the heart of the defense and off to pay dirt. My favourite though is Ray Rice of the Ravens. Why? Because (shut up, I know) normally with running backs, their success is tied very closely to their offensive line. Or to put it another way, unless you happen by chance to be a ghost it's physically impossible to run through a wall of 300 pound offensive and defensive linemen standing shoulder to shoulder. This is the major problem that Chris Johnson has had in Tennessee this year. Every time they call a run the Titans O-line seems to get wadded up in a bunch, which is a win for the defense. With no gaps between the linemen, it makes it very easy for the linebackers to read the play. All they have to do is flow towards the gaps at the two ends of the bunch and boom, dead play. Coincidentally the Ravens D happens to be quite good at doing just that. But the thing with Ray Rice is, he seems to possess an extraordinary vision on such plays for finding the tiny little cracks in the defense. His lateral quickness combined with that vision allows Rice to to squirm through creases that other running backs can't, if they even see them in first place. Credit to Rice for that. But the question still lingers, who might win such a battle? Well if I'm honest, the Ravens appear have the advantage. We know both teams can run the ball and that both teams struggle a little when throwing, but the Ravens D gives them the clear edge. That's not to say that the Chiefs have a weak defense, but they're simply not the Ravens. They can both bring pressure on the quarterback and both teams have playmakers in the back end, but critically in what could prove to be a ground and pound game, the Ravens run defense has the edge. The Ravens finished the regular season as the number 5 defense against the run. The Chiefs came in at number 14. So if it turns out to be a grind 'em down style field position battle, you probably have to give Baltimore the advantage. There is hope however for the Chiefs. An early score could tempt the Ravens into throwing a little more and as we've seen this season they're pass protection still leaves something to be desired. That gives Tamba Hali the open shot he needs to get in and cause some havoc. Hali topped the AFC for sacks in the regular season with 14.5 (only DeMarcus Ware finished ahead of him in the NFC, with 15.5). Add to that the hidden effect of numerous QB hits and pressures which go largely unnoticed on the stat sheets (someone at one of the big networks needs to fix this), and you have a recipe for forcing Joe Flacco into some bad throws. The Chiefs have the people in the secondary to make Flacco pay, and so the Chiefs could be set up to pull off the next huge upset in the 2010 season Wildcard weekend. We'll see. The winner has a date lined up with the Steelers... Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles (4:30pm ET, FOX) (9:30pm GMT, Sky Sports 2) The Packers and the Eagles clash in what bizarrely many people are touting as the true NFC Championship game. I think the Falcons and Bears might have something to say about that (and the Seahawks I guess). Still though, it is a hell of a clash to be having in the wildcard weekend. Michael Vick, the NFL's golden ticket for redemption (and advertising revenues) up against Aaron Rodgers, the successor to Brett Favre. So how good are these teams? The Eagles destroyed the Redskins in a style that you would expect of a great team. They also produced the miracle at the New Meadowlands, coming back from almost certain defeat at the hands of what was a very strong Giants team (10-6 with one of the better defenses out there) to storm to victory. The Packers caliber is much more subtle. Consider that the Patriots are widely touted as the best team in the NFL right now, and that the Packers managed to run their game against the Patriots very close, all without the aid of starting QB Aaron Rodgers. 'The Pack' are also one of those rare teams that has great strength on both sides of the ball. They have a great offense that is more than capable of getting into a shootout with any team in the league. But on defense they are also pretty sound. The development of corners Tramon Williams and Sam Shields has had a huge impact for them. When you then consider that their front seven is up there among the best, easily at home alongside the Ravens and the Steelers, and you have a seriously solid all around team. Not quite the same story in Philadelphia. The Eagles have Mike Vick. They have DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy and James Harrison (don't knock the guy). But on defense it begins to get a little flimsy. While Trent Cole, Juqua Parker and Darryl Tapp form the backbone of a formidable pass rush, the Eagles have still been found wanting on the back end this season, and their rush defense has at times been very poor. All things considered I think the Packers have the edge going into this game, but as we've seen this season, not least in this wildcard weekend, anything is possible on any given Sunday. Could the X factor that is Michael Vick tip the balance? Will Aaron Rodgers simply stroll onto the field and tear apart the Eagles secondary? Maybe DeSean Jackson will have a few big run backs in the kicking game? Guess we'll all just have to grab a beer (Amaretto for me please), sit back, relax and tune in to what is proving to be one of the most intriguing seasons in recent memory. I'll be back tomorrow for a full recap.

Wildcard Weekend (part 1)

So now we know where three teams will be headed in 2011. The Titans have confirmed Jeff Fisher will be their coach for at least another year. The Dolphins have signed Tony Sparano through 2013. Not, however, before arranging a meeting with Eric Mangini to come on board as a "consultant", cancelling a press conference along the way that would have been used to confirm Sparano as the 2011 coach of the Dolphins. The meeting with Mangini didn't go ahead in the end and Sparano has been confirmed, but the damage to the reputation of both the coach and owner has been done. Dolphins owner Stephen Ross now looks like a jackass. And he's pulled Sparano down with him, effectively sending the message to the players that "we couldn't get the guy we wanted and we couldn't find anyone else who would take the role, so we're bringing back Sparano for you. Enjoy." Of course the guy they "wanted" was Jim Harbaugh, who will now be coaching the 49ers for 2011. Harbaugh's first order of business? Quarterback. With both Alex and Troy Smith up for free agency, that leaves David Carr as the only guy signed for 2011. With Harbaughs college QB Andrew Luck staying on for another year, that means the 49ers might be looking for a trade. One option is Josh Johnson of the Buccaneers, who Harbaugh has worked with previously. I really like Johnson so you won't hear any complaints from me. The other possibility, outside of the draft of course, is a free agent. Topping that list might be Donovan McNabb who is expected to be released by the Redskins. Please Jim; don't. McNabb has done well, but he's not exactly Mr. Consistent and seems to have a real problem dealing with pressure. Please, let's just go somewhere else, with a young guy who you can mold. Please. Just before we have a look at this Saturday's wild card games, just time to point you in the direction of the latest work from NFL.com's Albert Breer. Good stuff. Now, games, which after all is what football is all about. New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks (4:30PM ET, NBC) The stage is set for an epic disappointment. Quite whose, we don't yet know. It could be the Seahawks, their hopes raised after stumbling to victory over the Rams. On the back of Mike Williams and a semi-resurgent Marshawn Lynch, the Seahawks have become the first 7-9 division champion, and the first team outside of a strike shortened season to make the playoffs with a losing record. It all looks so hopeful. It's a big achievement, especially after such miserable seasons as the Seahawks have endured in recent years (as a 49er fan I can only say one thing. Good). Maybe this is their time to shine again? Or maybe it's their time to get their dreams crushed, as the Saints roll into town and flatten their helpless and hapless opponents in a demonstration of such sheer dominance and offensive power that the French nation promptly surrender to Coach Payton before he turns on them (a bit of good ol' fashion British light hearted humour/Xenophobia/racism there). Conversely, it could be the Saints in for a shock. God knows it would be a shock to all of us if Seattle wins, but they have a few things in their favour. Last year the Saints finished the regular season with a +11 turnover differential. This year the Saints finished at -6. That's not helped by the loss of running backs Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory. The expectation now is that with the loss of his run game, Drew Brees will have to throw even more, possibly close to 50 times in this game. With Brees's recent problems with interceptions, that could be a potential gold mine waiting to be tapped for Seattle. Then we have the crowd. The noise in Qwest Field is pretty legendary, and in a playoff game there is likely to be little respite for the Saints. That throws up issues of false starts at critical moments and a breakdown of communication, especially during audibles. The Saints are used to very loud stadiums, but not when their offense is on the field. Finally; just the sheer surprise factor of the Seahawks. They have nothing to lose and everything to gain, the exact opposite of the defending champion Saints. If the Saints are too cocky it could be their downfall. Too conservative and the same applies. Meanwhile the Seahawks can dig deep into the playbook on both sides of the ball and just go all out for the win. If they crash and burn, who cares? If Seattle gets hammered 45-0 I wont batter an eye lid (just laugh. Heartily). On paper I would expect the Saints to do just that. It's not like Seahawks fans realistically expect their team to beat the Saints. And if they lose by just 3 points? That's still a loss, so all that conservative play just went out of the window for nothing. If the Seahawks just come out, have fun and let it all hang loose, who knows? I should also probably take the time right now to point out that I wont be doing picks this week, or for the rest of the season (possibly not even for the whole of next season). My regular season record was just over .500, my playoff record from last year was terrible (including 0-7 from the Divisional round onwards if I remember rightly) and just generally I find it much more enjoyable watching games when I'm not secretly cheering on one side or the other because I picked them. And that's before we get onto the issue of teams not doing as their told (Texans, Panthers, Titans etc. Hate those guys). I doubt it'll be a great loss to the world. New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts (8:00PM ET, NBC) Surprise, surprise, Rex Ryan has been writing checks with his mouth that his team potentially wont be able to cash. The way to the Super Bowl would see the Jets likely take on Peyton Manning, arguably the best QB in the league today, followed by Tom Brady, arguably the best QB in the league today, and then possibly followed by Ben Roethlisberger, arguably the best QB in the league today. That's a hell of a lot of good quarterbacks to be facing, even for the Jets defense. While they have the potential to be very solid, they've also had their fair share of struggles this season, including against the Browns, a team not noted for the wild success of its offense. Let us not forget also that all of these teams must be overcome with Mark Sanchez at the helm for the Jets offense. Now just to recap, that means Mark Sanchez versus (potentially); -- The Colts defense, which was already good and has only got better lately. The Colts D gave up the highest percentage of passes completed in the regular season, but were in the top half of the table for least passing yards allowed. This is also a defense that gave up less touchdowns than the Jets. -- The Patriots defense, which gave up one more TD than the Jets D (25 to 24), but recorded over double the number of interceptions (25 to 12). -- The Steelers defense, which; conceded the second least yards per game (behind the Chargers), the least total points (232 compared to the Jets 304), the least points per game (14.5), conceded the second least (tied) percentage of 3rd down conversions (32%), recorded the most sacks (48), gave up less touchdowns (15) than it had interceptions (21), and gave up the fewest rushing yards (1,004) which was about 437 yards better than the second placed team (Chicago). In other words, it's going to be bloody hard for the Jets to make a dent in a very strong playoff group. The added pressure of Rex Ryan telling the world that he doesn't think Brady works as hard as Manning or can cope as well without his coaches as Manning, only helps to set up a great (and embarrassing) down fall in the divisional round. That's providing of course that they can topple the Colts. That would be the Indianapolis Colts who struggled at times, especially in the middle of the season, but otherwise did very well for themselves. Despite the hiccups, the Colts offense still finished with the 4th most points in the regular season and picked up more first downs per game than any other team. In particular Manning and the Colts love games like this. Racking up the points on offense entices the opposing side into a shoot out. That's where Freeney and Mathis come in. If the back end can hold up long enough (helped dramatically by playing less experienced QB's like Sanchez) that opens the door for a furious pass rush. When your rushing attack stinks, as the Jets has lately, that only increases your appearance of one dimensionality further. The Jets have fought and battled at times and somehow came through with the record that they did. If they want to go any further, it's going to take a tremendous effort. All I know is it's going to be a hell of a lot of fun to watch! Tomorrow I'll be back to recap the Saturday action and to look forward to Sunday's game.

With no mid-week games this week (all on Sunday) it means I have a bit of time spare in this mid week. So I've now got the chance to do something a bit more fun with some more pictures, but first... I've remembered the thing that I'd forgotten at the end of yesterday's post. Picks. I finished the week at a tie, 8-8, which takes my season tally now to 121-103 after 16 weeks. Which, if I'm honest, is rubbish. Better luck next year by the looks of it. Now before we get onto the show and tell aspect of this, another article pointer for you. Another one from Michael Lombardi, and affirmation I feel that he indeed is the most improved analyst from any of the major networks. This is what I'm talking about when I say that Lombardi is at his best dishing out the cold, hard truth, as if he was sitting Jerry Jones down and trying to slap some sense into him. Which is something, be honest now, that we'd all pay to see. Right, pictures time. The images I have for you are unashamedly screen captured from NFL networks playbook show, as evidenced by the little playbook symbol in the corner. They have not been edited, so any symbols, lines or shapes etc are those put on by the show themselves and not by me. The original video can be found here. Now what we're looking at is the Saints driving in for a score against the Falcons. It's 3rd and 3 with the ball on the Falcons 6 yard line. What the analysts were interested in is kind of what I'm interested in, but for different reasons. Their focus was on the motion by Reggie Bush (number 25) who you can see just running down to the numbers at the bottom of the picture below, and the effect that this has on the linebacker to the weak side. The linebacker is drawn across to the middle of the defense as the coverage is shifted to accommodate for the motion. The Linebacker in question is now in the left of the two blue circles. The intent of the shows piece was to demonstrate how the crafty mind of Saints Head Coach Sean Payton produced an opening in the passing game through the use of motion (the "10 yards" you can see in the image above). But what I'm more interested in is the technique of the defender in the picture below, which is Falcons safety William Moore (they're the pair at the top of the picture in the first image). Whether Moore realises it or not, the ball is headed his way. It's third down, with just 3 yards to go, and of course the Saints are almost within touching distance of the end zone just to add to the problem. So why, my question goes, does Moore not bump the receiver? This is something that has been really bugging me over the last two years as I started taking more note of it. Moore is clearly aligned head up, man to man on the receiver. Now at this distance, I've always been led to believe (and indeed do believe) that you should be making strong physical contact with the receiver as he crosses the line of scrimmage. Otherwise there is no real benefit to standing that close; if you're not going to bump him, you might as well back up and give yourself a bit of a cushion. Think about this as well. Brees is in an empty set. If there is a blitz or the front four manage to beat a block, there is no help back there. Brees would be left to simply throw or run. You have to be thinking as a defensive back that if you can just delay the receivers release, then the pass rush will get home, or at least very close. It will also allow the linebacker inside of you to get into his drop and help you out. So bump the bloody receiver!! Instead what we get is what you see below: Moore backs off immediately at the snap (this is a few frames later). If you watch the original video it'll confirm that he makes no effort to even redirect this receiver, let alone get a solid bump on him. As you can see in the final image below, the receiver has plenty of room to make the catch without having to worry about Moore potentially breaking it up. And it just drives me nuts. From a coaching standpoint I am (ahem, was) more of an offensive guy. But seeing what is essentially free points being given away (something I should be delighted to see) really gets on my nerves. It goes back to the old argument of "you're paid millions of dollars, so why aren't you doing the basic stuff that college/high school kids are taught?" As a result of Moore's failure to get a good bump (and no, him being a safety is not an excuse) the Saints were able to snatch an easy TD. I guess it's just something about me. I don't like seeing this kind of thing handed away. I like seeing teams made to work hard for their points/wins. There probably was a point to this other than me just ranting to get something off my chest. But whatever that point was, has now been forgotten. Sod it.

Monday Night Football recap

New Orleans Saints 17 @ Atlanta Falcons 14: Honestly, if this is the best the NFC has to offer then I suspect the AFC teams heading into the playoffs are going to be licking their chops. With the win the Saints bagged a playoff spot, but to win the division they'll need some help from Carolina next week which is unlikely. Their more immediate concern might be their offense. Drew Brees was 35/49, which looks good on paper, but for just 302 yards leaves them with an average of just over 8 yards per pass. Brees also bagged 1 TD, but also 2 INT's, one of which was an absolute shocker that was returned for a touchdown. This was simply not good enough from either team. While some mistakes were punished, others went penalty free and that simply isn't going to happen in the playoffs. Both teams really need to knuckle down and focus this week. That also cost me another pick, taking me to 8-7 for the week. Now, before I head off to go and stab my voodoo doll of Sean Payton, I have two things to bring to your attention. The first is this article regarding some of the fines that were levied after week 15, including a $7,500 fine for a horse collar tackle. What I want you to take note of is the 341 comments. Juts read some of them. If the NFL has any questions about where the fans stand in regards to all these junk fines, I think they can find the answers there among the overwhelming hoard of negative comments. Which leads me to another article that has me questioning my most improved analyst blah, blah award. This article by Pat Kirwan makes him a strong contender as it vastly overshadows some of the shoddy work he put up earlier this year. In particular I'd like to point you towards the last point he makes (emphasis added by the way): "I don't care what teams publish as attendance at NFL games, there were way too many empty seats this weekend. The average fan simply can't afford to go to a game and I'm starting to think the clubs must get into the reality business and lower ticket prices -- or be prepared to play to half-filled stadiums." "I'm not here to name names, but it was embarrassing to see upper decks half-empty and even seats on the 50-yard line unused. The players need to look at the stadiums they play in and also realize that, unless there is a radical change, they too will suffer financially." "People can't afford to go to games, can't appreciate all the talk about how much money the players want, or see any logic in owners wanting to expand to 18 games. Let's stop thinking about the NFL machine and look at the empty seats and find a solution." As if by magic, Mr. Kirwan has been transformed from corporate spokesperson (like earlier in the season) to the voice of reason that echo's what the vast majority of NFL fans think. It's a miracle worthy of any Christmas tale and it needed to be said by someone in Kirwan's position. With any luck the rest of the mainstream media will catch on soon. I never thought I'd say this but; God bless you Pat Kirwan.

Vikings @ Saints recap

Games done so it's time to wrap up the Vikings @ Saints: Vikings 9 @ Saints 14 -- Ya see, this is why I hate coaches like Brad Childress. You have a great running back in Adrian Peterson. 19 carries for 87 yards. Longest carry was 14 yards. He wasn't exactly ripping up the artificial turf at the Louisiana Superdome but at least he was plugging along nicely, as the title of my blog says "Keeping the Chains moving". So why, why in the name of god would you come out in the second half and barely let him touch the ball? Given that the Vikings were ahead and that even after Pierre Thomas scored, you still only had to make up 5 points, why would you completely abandon one of your best offensive assets in favour of throwing incompletions left, right and center (Favre finished 15/27 for 171 yards, a TD and an INT)? It just defies belief. Surely a drive that takes 11 plays or more and burns 6-7 minutes off the clock, but at the very least ends in a score or at least a potential score is better than throwing the ball 3 or 4 times ineffectually and then punting and letting the Saints run off the clock? It's like the Dolphins/Saints game from last year all over again, or the Panthers every damn week! Ah well. A few positives to take away would be that a) if the Vikings keep playing like this then the Packers are a lock for the division title and b) at least we have proof that the Saints aren't infallible as many people would have you believe they are. Brees finished 27/36 for 237 yards and a TD, but the Saints didn't look as crisp offensively as they did last season. Defensively the standouts were all Vikings. LB Chad Greenway recorded 9 tackles and 3 assists. LB E.J. Henderson recorded 8 tackles and one assist, and finally Antoine Winfield finished with 7 tackles and 2 assists. Overall a faltering, unsteady start from both teams that they will want to put behind them as quickly as possible. I'll be back tomorrow to start previewing the rest of the Week 1 action but until then, Have a great day everyone.

Vikings @ Saints

It's prediction time once again ahead of tomorrow nights game between the Vikings and Saints. Let's get straight to it: Vikings @ Saints -- We kick off the season with a repeat of last seasons NFC Championship game. But I don't expect a repeat of the result. Let's be absolutely clear about something; the Vikings turned the ball over 5 times and out gained the Saints offensively by about 200 yards. This is probably the main reason I dislike the Saints (Not hate...... Yet). It's not even their fault. You win a few games, no matter how many calls went your way or regardless of the reality of the games, and suddenly you're being crowned as the number one team in the league by the press. In the end the Saints came through in the big game itself, but to say that they were/are the best team in the NFL masks the fact that they finished bottom of their division the season before that and avoided defeat at the hands of the Redskins (THE REDSKINS) by virtue of a missed field goal It happens in knockout tournaments. You have a few good games, some things go your way and sometimes you just ride your luck to victory. I think this season we are going to see the Saints nose dive in truly fantastic fashion, making all the pre-season predictions of them as the number one team in the NFL look plain silly. It wont have anything to do with a "Super Bowl Hangover", but will have everything to do with the miracle that they even made it to the big game last year, let alone won it. And the nose dive begins this Thursday against the Vikings. Yes Favre is old. Yes Sidney Rice is injured. But yes, Bernard Berrian is a more than adequate back up. Yes Adrian Peterson can have a huge impact on a game. Yes, Toby Gerhart will be a more effective back up than even the excellent Chester Taylor. And yes, the Vikings still have a strong defense that forced numerous punts by the Saints just 7 or so months ago. Given that the Saints have gotten weaker in the off season and that Darren Sharper is unlikely to repeat his age defying interception tally, I can fully see the Vikings running over New Orleans tomorrow. It's going to be hum-dinger of a battle and the Saints are sure to come after Favre with everything they have, but I just don't think it'll be enough. Vikings win. I'll be back tomorrow to wrap it up the game, till then, Have a great day everyone.

Monday Night Football

With the Monday Night Game done, it's time to look at how I got on with my final pick of the week: Patriots 17 @ Saints 38 -- Trust the Patriots to mash up my final pick. And listen, no I'm not about to bow before the mighty Saints and say "hey, they're the best". Yeah, they beat the Pats, but go back and watch the game film. I don't know what Pats team was out there in New Orleans, but it wasn't the one any of us would recognise. Take Tom Brady for example. 21/36, 237 yards, no TD's and 2 INT's. For Brady that's really bad. But the worst offenders were the Pats defense. Devery Henderson looked like he was going to fall over in shock during the second quarter as he was left so open it was unreal. I don't think blown coverage really does it justice. I dunno, I'm just speechless. Now I know I bang on with the hate against the Saints each week, but trust me, there is a point. I know Drew Brees is one of the premier QB's in the league. He is easily one of the top three, along with Peyton Manning and Brett Favre. As a team, the Saints have done really well in all three phases of the game. But the response to all this has been symptomatic of NFL analysis over the last 10 years or so. The Saints are being hailed as the greatest team in football right now, when they're simply not. It's another case of the over hype that is rife among sports broadcasters. Let's look at it realistically. The Saints division has been woeful this year, contributing to easy wins. The Dolphins practically gave the game back to New Orleans after destroying them in the first half. And now this result which will again overly inflate the reputation of the Saints, despite the Patriots being dire. The biggest and best example of this over hype is Darren Sharper. After his late pick, the defensive players were fanning him and treating him like a hero. That's understandable. They're his team mates and they are joking around. But by tomorrow all the sports broadcasters across the land will be kneeling at Sharpers feet, heralding him for what was essentially just being too slow and lazy to keep up with the play, which left him short when Brady's pass didn't make it. He got lucky, again, and now he's going to be proclaimed as some kind of defensive wizard. God it makes me sick just thinking about it. And probably the worst bit about all this is that the Patriots previously mentioned appalling D will go quietly un-noticed. This whole debacle will be put down to how great the Saints were, blah, blah. But the fact is that on Saturday I made a point about the Saints O. I mentioned that they get most of their big gains and scores going down the middle. I was expecting the normally excellently coached Patriots to see it and shut it down. They didn't. Big time. Just watch the game film. The Pats let Brees and his receivers have the middle all to themselves. They didn't bring enough pressure right up the A gap to force Brees to move either. It just sucked as a defensive performance. And this is what I love about football. Every week certain match ups favour certain teams, and every week pundits will hype the crap out of people that don't warrant it. And the most bizarre thing about this is the unlikely candidates who have the best shot of beating the Saints should they face them. Namely, the Steelers, the Ravens, the Cowboys and the Eagles. None of these teams has exactly lit up the world this season. But all of these teams would have a good shot of beating the Saints (The Cowboys actually get a chance in week 15). Why? 'Cos they all bring great pressure right up the middle. Take the Cowboys for example. They are hardly over flowing with defensive talent, but Jay Ratliff should get in the face of Drew Brees when they meet, and push Brees out of the pocket. Coupled with the potential of their ground game should they chose to use it (which knowing my luck they wont), they have a real chance of chewing the clock, stopping the Saints ground game and forcing Brees to get mobile and try and win games throwing 40 times, which simply wont work. Ahh, that feels better now I've ranted off on one. Tomorrow; Extra Credit.

Running off my mouth.

Ok so today I'm gonna look at running the football, and why there's a chance it might become en vogue once more. First of all I'd like to clarify that I'm not talking about Miami's 'Wildcat'. The reason is simple. Without a true QB in there they lack any immediate passing threat. Their passing game basically consists of long, drawn out plays involving plenty of play action. And teams are learning quickly that if you can force the edges with your cornerbacks and play two deep safeties, you can shut the Wildcats pass attack down. No, what I'm talking about is true power running. "I" formations and the like, with a fullback in the backfield leading the way. Pulling guards and pounding the rock. Every team in the NFL seems to have packages for this (accept maybe New England and Indianapolis). But few teams do it often and do it properly. Two teams that stand out are the Tennessee Titans and the Carolina Panthers. Last season these two teams went 13-3 and 12-4 respectively for a combined tally of 25-7. They both bombed in the playoffs. And that's actually a point worth noting. During the regular season they both ran the ball. A lot. They leaned on their respective two headed rushing attacks to get the job done for them. Then in the playoffs both teams made a cardinal error. They tried to pass to win. Both teams asked their QB to win it for them and both failed. Miserably. Scary thing is, it's been a running theme again for them this season (no pun intended). Neither team looked at it's mistakes. Neither team has sat down and thought to themselves "Hey, we did great running the ball last year, why are we throwing it this year?". As a consequence, they now have a combined record of 4-10 having played 14 games between them. They've also managed to generate 21 INT's between their starting QB's. The moral of the story? Play to your strengths, and in both cases, that's power running. So what is it about running the football that's so great? Firstly, you don't turn the ball over anywhere near as much. I know some teams (or rather their running backs) have problems with ball retention, but as I mentioned yesterday, a lot of that is down to poor technique. It's easily fixable. To get a look at how it's done properly, turn to Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald and look at his ball control technique. Anytime he feels pressure he wraps that ball up tight. The result is that in 83 games, with a combined tally of 489 touches, he's fumbled the ball just 5 times. Kerry Collins or Jake Delhomme have produced more turnovers individually in just one season. Now consider the question of clock and ball control. You run the football, you get tackled, the clock keeps running. This means that gradually throughout the course of the game you leave less and less time available for a high scoring pass offense like the Patriots or the Saints to put points up on the board against you. They can't score 35 or 40 points because they don't have the time or the sufficient number of possessions to do it. And then we look at 3 and outs. The beauty of running the ball is that even if you're run play gets stuffed close to the line of scrimmage, chances are you can at least get a yard or two. Conversely every incompletion on a pass play gets you nothing, zero, zlich. And that's before we even get started on the number of runs that are stopped for big losses versus yards lost through sacks. Ultimately what it adds up to is more manageable down and distance situations (3rd & 2 as opposed to 3rd & 8). "But what about big plays? What happens when your team gets behind and you need to score?" I hate this supposed argument. So far this season the leagues running backs have combined for 30 runs of 40 or more yards. If it wasn't for Tennessee and Carolina (amongst others) being so pre-occupied with their QB's, the tally would be even more. It just boils my blood to listen to the notion that running the football can't produce explosive plays. Because it does. And if teams ran the ball more against the fabled 'prevent' defenses, that are designed to stop the pass by removing linebackers and introducing more defensive backs, then I'm sure you'd see more big plays. If you want a good example, just go back to the last game ever played in Texas stadium, which was last years Week 16 clash between the Cowboys and the Ravens. The Cowboys gave up rushing touchdowns of 77 and 82 yards on back to back Ravens possessions. And of course, running the football attracts 8 man boxes. It attracts safeties looking to stuff the run. Which creates opportunities for play action passes going deep down the field. Just ask the Saints. The difference maker in their season so far has been points scored on defense and the fact that this year they actually run the football. In fact, they've almost chalked up as many rushing touchdowns as they have passing (14 rushing to 16 passing). And if you still don't believe me, ask Brett Favre and Carson Palmer. With Peterson of the Vikings and Benson of the Bengals producing so well on the ground, both Favre and Palmer have seen a lot more 8 man boxes and cover three looks. And for them, that's bread and butter. They will, and have, picked such coverage apart all season long. Even Jake Delhomme did last year (!!!), as teams respected the Panthers rushing attack so much (and with good reason) that it created one on one matchups for Steve Smith on the outside. Conversely, teams that don't run the ball as much get into trouble far more often than teams that don't pass as much. Look at the Dolphins blowing their huge lead over the Saints a few weeks ago, or the Jets giving the ball away passing against the Bills despite having dominated on the ground all day. The Eagles lost to the Raiders purely because they couldn't, or wouldn't run the ball. They gave the Raiders ample opportunities to break up passes, get sacks and gave them plenty of clock to play with. And we all know what's happened to the Panthers and Titans this year..... So in summary, if you wanna win football games at this level it's best to have a balanced attack. Run the ball to set up the pass. If you're QB isn't that great run it a little more. If your defense isn't great, run it a little more. If you want to hold onto a lead, run it a little more. Gradually we're starting to see teams with strong run games dominate football games. Last year the Steelers and the Ravens, who both exemplified this theory, contested the AFC championship game. The Steelers went on to win the Superbowl. Look for the trend to continue and for more teams to turn to power football as a way to make it to, and through, the post season.

Trawling the net for Football gems.

So today I've been browsing around the web etc and checking out what's generally going on in the football world and so here I present to you some of my humble observations: 1) I read an article about Quarterbacking, which to cut a long story short, bemoaned the lack of quality teaching today regarding a QB's arm position during the throw. The writer included a piece by a well known QB coach (who advertises on his site. Just thought I'd mention that). In the way that seems all to typical of college coaches now (which both the writer and his sponsor, sorry, contributor are), he levelled the lofty finger of criticism at the pros. It was the usual, "they don't really understand football, not like we do in Division 3...." type of thing. The most severe critique was saved for the way pro coaches obsess over footwork. And to be honest, the pro coaches have this one in the bag. Stand in the middle of a field, feet shoulder with apart and facing forward, and throw a ball to a friend using nothing more than your arm motion. Good luck with that by the way. It probably didn't travel very far. Now introduce the hips. And now finally the legs and feet, allowing yourself to coil back and throw. The power in the proverbial "Big arm" comes from using the whole body as a sling. Generating power begins in the legs and the hips. To do this properly, to allow yourself to follow through completely, you must first plant your feet properly. Hence the seemingly inordinate amount of time that top QB coaches devote to footwork. 2) Talking of QB's, Brett Favre comes to mind. The stats are good. He's completing about 68% of his passes (174/256), for 1,925 yds total and an average of 7.5 yds per completion. But what really sticks out is the business end of the numbers. 16 TD's, matched only by Matt Schaub and Drew Brees. But what he has that they don't is just 3 INT's, (compared to 6 & 7 for Brees and Schaub respectively). This is what is marking him out for possibly his greatest season yet. The old gunslinger from the south has tempered his game a little, reducing turnovers to help a team that features a fantastic RB and a great D. All the while, still finding time to put points on the board. Watching him in action, he really does look superb this season. If he and the Vikings were to win the Superbowl this year, it would be thoroughly, thoroughly, deserved. 3) Lot of talk around about firing head coaches. Eric Mangini should top that list. The Redskins, the Rams, the Lions, the Titans and the Raiders have all hardly set the world alight this year, but at least they've tried. At least they've gone about their business with a bit of guts in some places. Meanwhile the Browns trot out week on week and seem to dissolve in front of our very eyes each week. Complaints among the players about their coach are rife. God knows how he acquired the title 'Man-genius', but I wish people would stop giving him that much credit. The argument currently in vogue is that firing Mangini now would serve no purpose, and that the Browns would not really progress at all as a club. Well hey, newsflash, this season the Browns have, somehow, regressed since last season. Mangini has made this team worse. A new coach may not fix all the problems now, but at least you'd be solving the franchises biggest problem, i.e. Mangini. 4) The consensus opinion among the great and the good of football analysis and commentary seems to be that the New Orleans Saints are the best team in football right now. And it's simply not true. There seems to be no other evidence for this decision that's been made than the fact that they're 7-0. Which on the surface seems fantastic. Except that the Colts are also 7-0, and they're a much better team. And lets not forget about the Denver Broncos, who at 6-0 were being touted as the previous best team in the NFL, the team that everyone now had to beat etc... until the Ravens torched them 30-7. Remember the Saints vs Dolphins a couple of weeks ago? You should, because were it not for some shocking play calling the Dolphins would have utterly embarrassed the "best team in the NFL right now". Then this week, they scrape past the Falcons. Yes people, the Falcons. Looking at some of the quality sides in the NFL who year on year produce great results, it's hard to get to excited about the Saints just yet. 5) In an interesting addition to the above, I thought it was quite amusing to see Darren Sharper lauded for his pick in last weeks game. This is the kind of thing I'm talking about with misplaced praise. It was a jump ball. There were at least 5 or 6 Saints just clamouring for a piece of that ball. Sharper was the one under it. Suddenly that's the mark of a great player, with the so often quoted phrase "ball hawk" being rolled out. If catching a last second desperation jump ball on the 20 yard line makes you great, then there's still hope for many a rubbish defensive player in the league. And all the while no-one is talking about the Saints combo of cornerbacks, Jabari Greer, Randall Gay and most importantly, Tracy Porter. 6) The praise so far for Vince Young has been overflowing from pretty much every orifice that the Internet has to offer. People saying how well he controlled the game, made no mistakes and just did enough to help the Titans win. Well I hate to point this out, but that's exactly what Kerry Collins did last year, except Collins is going to be a ton cheaper next year. Being a game manager is pretty easy for most quarterbacks, especially ones in Tennessee right now. Hand the ball off and let Johnson and White do all the damage. All you have to do is limit (read: eliminate) turnovers. Young can do that. Collins can do that. Hell, I could probably do that. What the Titans need to see from Young is this; if we get ourselves in a situation where we cant run the ball, can you lead us to victory? Flacco is starting to do it in Baltimore. Roethlisberger did it for Pittsburgh last year. That's the question that needs to be answered of Vince Young. Not, "if we play our normal style of running football, can we trust you to hand the ball off correctly?". 7) Everyone is crying about the recent slump of Giants Quarterback Eli Manning. Now, this deserves a reality check. No, that's not quite sufficient. It deserves a hard slap in the face. Eli is not his brother. He's not Philip Rivers, he's not Tom Brady, he's not Drew Brees, he's none of these people. What he is, is the brother of one of the best quarterbacks in the league, who happened to be the guy that was asked in Superbowl 42, to chuck what was for all intended purposes a 'hail mary' pass into the endzone, which was caught for a game winning touchdown. No more, no less. He's an average QB. He's ok, he's better than Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson. He's better than JaMarcus Russell. But he's still not good enough to take the game out of the hands of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, who would probably very much appreciate the ball not being constantly turned over at the QB position. That's just the facts. Manning is good. But he's no Manning. 8) The Packers defence is drawing a lot of heat lately, with a lot of talk about whether one of the defensive ends should line up on the LOS or 1 yard off it. Yes people, it's the old 4-3/3-4, let's-all-pretend-it-makes-a-huge-amount-of-difference debate once more this season. I'm always told in the greatest of confidence and without any hint of shame by people that it's to do with getting the right personnel in the right spot. Because of course, if you had a 330-pound nose tackle, you wouldn't dare put him in a 4-3 defence. God no!! Only a 3-4, etc, etc, the arguments go on. What the Packers might want to do is focus a bit more on their appalling O-line and their abysmal rushing attack. 9) Maurice Jones-Drew. So the story goes, he chose 32 as his Jersey number to remind him (and doubtless the world) that 32 teams passed on him first time around. It is widely believed that most teams considered him too small to succeed (approximately 5ft 7in). Only in the NFL could a short player like Jones-Drew be considered unsuitable for a position that requires a quick burst of speed, the ability to change directions rapidly and the ability to get your pads low on a tackler. That is all.