Tebow, Sapp, Porter, and a wave of media bile.

So all this is coming off the back of the news that Peyton Manning is currently finalising a deal with the Denver Broncos, reported to be in the region of $95 million for 5 years. That's $19 million per year, or as we say in my neck of the woods, "what f**king mug agreed to give him that?".

Anyway, the result of this deal is that in all likely hood, Tim Tebow will be traded. There's talk about 5th round picks, maybe more, maybe less. Whatever it is, pretty much every media outlet has panned the idea that any team would be stupid enough to do so. They all claim it's a waste of a pick and the usual bandwagon bullshit about how Tebow will never win games as a starter in the NFL, joking about him moving to tight end etc.

The NFL Networks response was to ask Warren Sapp and Joey Porter what they thought if Tebow was brought onto a team that they were playing on. Porter responded by saying that he would want to know who "was to blame" for bringing Tebow to his team and that he would take the signing as an indication that his team wanted to lose all season to get a high draft pick next year. Sapp exclaimed that he would "want out", and that team mates of Tebow would have to get used to not being frustrated by pick sixes and being down by 24 points every game.

This, this right here, is one of the multitude of reasons that I've lost any interest what so ever in the NFL Network over the years. What a pile of ignorant horse shit.

Now I don't care if you like Tebow or if you don't, here's the indisputable truth. Last year the Broncos were 1-4 to start the season with Kyle "a pure pocket passer" Orton at the helm. Tebow comes in and the Broncos win 7 of their next 8 games, including a six game winning streak, before struggling in the final three games. As a result of this turn around, the Broncos made the playoffs.

This is why I couldn't help but laugh at Porter. Playing for a pick? What a late rounder? I suppose the Broncos didn't win those games no? And then Sapp's comments about pick sixes? Last year Tebow threw 6 interceptions against 12 touchdowns (Orton threw eight TD's and seven INT's in 5 games). He also ran in another 6. There are some quarterbacks in the NFL right now who can't even achieve a positive TD to INT ratio. It's one of the many oddities that people seem to over look when bashing Tebow as a passer.

By the way, did I mention the Broncos beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in a play off game? Thanks to a Tim Tebow pass? No? Oh well, there was that too.

Look, by no means do I consider Tebow to be an elite pocket passer, but a simple study of the film and in particular paying attention to the amount of dropped passes should tell the average fan that much of the crap you hear from the press is just that, crap.

With some better pass catchers and an offense that isn't afraid to actually allow him to go out and, you know, pass the ball, then I think you'll see a much better Tim Tebow. Tebow has shown, repeatedly, that he can throw passes accurately to receivers when given the opportunity. Whether they catch them or not is entirely down to them.

We also have to be wary of the numbers game here. The average accuracy rating for a good quarterback in the NFL is 60%. In one game Tebow threw 20 passes and completed 9. If he hits just three more passes in that game, hardly a massive leap in terms of on field production, then he achieves the holy 60% mark that everyone is so fixated by.

With the limited offense that he worked with in Denver, the difference between being deemed a success or failure in the eyes of the media was literally that thin. If the Broncos receivers weren't so bloody butter fingered, the Broncos might have won more games and Kyle Orton might not even have lost his job.

All I can say in the end is good luck to Peyton Manning. In exchange for the $19 million a year salary that you'll be receiving you have inherited; possibly one of the worst pass blocking O-lines in the NFL, a group of receivers that need a lot of work, a pretty good running game... that you wont use properly because you never do, and a defense that is very strong and will likely decide the fate of the Broncos in 2012.

Tuck in.

To Tim Tebow I say this; keep your chin up, work hard in the off season to improve yourself, find a bunch of young receivers who have no problem spending all day practicing with you, and then stick it to people like Sapp, Porter, Rich Eisen, Mike Florio, and all the other wider collective of dick head "analysts" on TV who have said you'll never make it.

Setting Slide or Turnback Pass Protection

Okey dokey. So the other day I was talking about the Colts O-line and how they seem to have become dependent on Peyton Manning to set protections for them. But what the hell does that actually mean? "Setting Protections" or "Adjusting Protections"? It's a good question (why thank you) and one I intend to answer now.

So the long and short of it is that when a pass play gets sent in to the quarterback, part of the play call will tell the linemen and backs how the offense is supposed to account for pass rushers. Sometimes the backs stay in, some times the tight end stays in, sometimes it's just the five guys up front on their own. Now that's all fine and dandy, what with the protection being organised in such way as to compliment the pass being called, but what happens when the defense comes out and gives you a front you don't like the look of?

Say for example you have no running backs staying in to protect, but your looking at the left side and you can see three guys waiting to rush, plus a safety walking down who could potentially be a fourth rusher. That's not good. So what are you going to do? Just roll with it and hope everything turns out ok? I wouldn't recommend that.

It's at this point that a guy like Peyton Manning steps in and changes the protection, directing the offensive line towards the danger, or telling the running back to check a certain player before releasing, or telling the tight end to stay in and help out. Something which Manning has plenty of experience with and Curtis Painter doesn't!

At this point going to the drawing board could prove useful I think. The first diagram we'll look at it is a very basic pass protection set, known as "BOB" or "Big On Big", just to get a feel for the kind of protection a team might start with;

As you can see we have our offensive guards and offensive tackles matched up against the four defensive linemen, hence the "big on big" name. In this case the center takes the Mike linebacker, the running back takes the Will backer, and if needs be the tight end could block the Sam linebacker. Now while this seems on the surface like a very sound protection, very rarely are teams actually gifted with such a perfectly even and tidy defensive front.

This is something the Dolphins found out in their game against the Giants the other week as demonstrated here. One blitz in particular that I diagrammed could come in useful for this discussion, as it has all the features that we need in order to take a good look at changing protections. So here's the blitz as it happened in the game;

What we have here is a blitz that is designed to occupy the middle of the offensive line, setting up the blitzing linebacker to go one on one with the running back. The Mike linebacker actually steps up to show blitz initially before dropping out, and the two defensive tackles attack the inside shoulders of the guards, making sure that all three of the interior offensive linemen get bunched up in the middle, with the B backer hitting the gap that's created between the left guard and left tackle. The right tackle is the only guy without someone to block, but has no realistic chance of getting across to pick up the B backer, meaning the running back has to take him.

Now obviously this is a mismatch in favour of the defense, but what other choice did the offense really have? We've already seen that the interior linemen couldn't ignore the danger posed by the defensive tackles and the Mike linebacker. We know that as athletic as the right tackle might be, he isn't going to cut across the back of the line in time to stop the blitz. So the only possible solution is for the backer to take him... right?

Wrong.

There is one thing that the offense can do in this situation, albeit an option that requires some good coordination between the offensive linemen. When presented with a front like the one above the quarterback - having got a good look at the defense (one of the reasons the shotgun is so popular with pass heavy teams) - can check the protection to a slide or "turnback" protection.

Basically what's going to happen is that the quarterback is going to take advantage of that right tackle who has nothing to do by asking the offensive line not to take the man immediately over them, but instead to take the next defender to the left. This is where the terms "slide" and "turnback" protection come from, because the offensive line is "sliding" across one man, usually executed by taking a step straight backwards off the line and then "turning back" to the left (in this case) with their next step. Let's take a look at the new assignments with another diagram;

As you can now see the right tackle now turns inside and takes the defensive tackle. Knowing that the defensive tackle is now accounted for, the right guard is free to turn inside and take the Mike linebacker if he blitzes. Knowing that the Mike linebacker is now accounted for, the Center is free to turn his attention left to the next defensive tackle. Finally, knowing that the defensive tackle over him is now accounted for, the left guard can turn to the left and take on the blitzing B backer.

With the left side of the defense covered all that remains now is for the running back to go right and fill the gap between the right tackle and tight end. In this case we'd like to keep the tight end in to block the defensive end, but if needs be you could release the tight end and simply have the running back cut down the defensive end, though that's not ideal.

Mainly the running back serves to fill that gap that will open up on the right side, keeping his eyes out for potential delayed blitzes from the safety, or the possibility of the Mike linebacker hooking around over the top. If the defensive end to the right is a major threat and you're not sure how the tight end will cope, you can have the back chip him with his shoulder on the way out into his pass pattern. You can even have the tight end shoot out immediately and strike the defensive end to delay him, before the tight end releases and the back picks up the pieces.

The uses of slide protections are numerous, as you can see. You don't even have to go to the extreme shown above with four players all turning back to the left. If needs be an offense can just slide two players across, for example when the team comes up against a 3-4 defense that puts a defensive end over the offensive tackle and then has an outside backer (especially one known for his pass rushing abilities) outside of him. In this case the offense can slide the tackle and guard on that side, so the guard now takes the defensive end and the tackle takes the outside backer, as demonstrated below;

On the left you can see the back is responsible for the outside backer. If that Will backer is DeMarcus Ware and the running back is Chris Johnson then suffice to say we have a mismatch. A better option is to slide the protection so that your left tackle (who should be your best pass blocker) ends up on Ware, the left guard handles that end and then the back is responsible for picking up the Mike linebacker if he blitzes (an even better option is just not to waste/trust Chris Johnson in pass protection).

Before we wrap this up I just quickly want to give you a flavour for the footwork, just so I don't leave people thinking that the offensive linemen are pulling flat across the line of scrimmage to get to their man;

The key is trying to balance the need to get across and block the man, while also understanding that you need to get some depth, otherwise you end up delivering a glancing blow to the mans side as he flies right past you on his way into the backfield.

Lastly the quarterback needs needs to be aware of two things when his offensive line is sliding; 1) that if only part of the line is sliding then it often results in a gaping hole developing between the sliding men and the rest of the line - don't unquestioningly rely on the running back to protect this hole! 2) The offensive linemen don't always get great initial blocks and so he must be prepared for the risk of rapid of penetration coming from the sliding side and needs to be ready to step laterally and/or up in the pocket away from that pressure;

As you can see the pass rush gets pushed to the left so the quarterback must slide to the right and step up, helping to keep his blockers between him and the pass rush.

Using slide protection is just one of the many great ways for quarterbacks to adjust to what the defense is doing. It allows the quarterback to account for potential overload blitz's to one side or for a defense that's trying to manipulate the numbers game in order to get a favourable match up on the running back. One of the things that separates the best from the rest at the quarterback position is the ability to read the defense, identify the main thrust of the pass rush and then adjust the line to neutralise that threat. It's one of the reasons that Peyton Manning is so valuable to the Colts, and helps us to partially explain why the Colts O-line has struggled so much this season without Manning's experienced eyes and his in-depth, almost automatic knowledge of the playbook.

So keep an eye out next time you see a quarterback calling an audible in the face of an unbalanced looking defense. He might just be switching to a slide protection.

I hope you enjoyed the article and found it useful. If so, don't be greedy with your new knowledge and share a link somewhere or click that facebook button.

Melting eye balls

Someone remind me what I was supposed to be doing? I can't remember right this second. I'm too busy trying to stop my eyes from melting. Along with my brain. I swear that over the last 3 or 4 days I've watched so many clips of the 2011 draft prospects that I'm actually starting to resent football. If I have to watch another damn post route, or a DE rushing the passer, or some offensive tackle lumbering back into his pass block I'm going to go insane. Not that any of this matters, it's just nice to vent sometimes. Anyway, back to more important matters. Now do you remember a post I wrote back near Christmas about "Super Nickelbacks"? No? Well, first of all cheers for the vote of confidence. Appreciate it. Secondly, here's the link back to it. The reason I bring this up is thanks to the staff off NFL Networks "Playbook" show, who kindly (and I dare say fully unintentionally) made a video a few days ago that basically demonstrates what I was talking about, only with game film to prove the point. Here is the link to that, as NFL.com still refuses to allow the embedding of it's videos on other sites, largely because they're still technologically stuck in the stone age. The bit about William Gay and Charles Woodson at the beginning is what you're looking for. Next, another video from the aforementioned proprietor of ancient tech. This one features Wes Welker wired up at the AFC Pro Bowl practice and wearing a helmet cam. It serves multiple purposes which are of interest to me; 1) It gives fans a better insight into what it's like to be Wes Welker (or indeed any NFL wide out) running pass routes. That's something that the league and football coverage in general could really benefit from, giving fans a "players eye" view of the action, even if it's only on the practice field. It's the use of interesting/innovative footage like this that football broadcasts need to keep their product fresh. Another example is the suspended camera that runs along the middle of the field. Why this angle is only used for replay purposes and not to give us some great in game shots is beyond me. 2) This video, and another similar one featuring Michael Vick, gives us a great insight into just how bad the video editing on NFL Network can be at times. Earlier in 2010 around the time of the combine I went off on a rant several days in a row due to the chronic level of poor editing used during the live broadcasts. Instead of following the player running the drill, the cameras kept cutting away to show the next player jogging up to the start line. I see now that nearly a year later things haven't improved. 3) But of most interest, and where this whole thing was ultimately heading, is listening to Peyton Manning talk to Welker about his route and how he plans to run it, where he wants the ball etc. This gives us a superb insight into who Manning is as a player and helps to explain why he's often tagged as a "coach on the field". It also serves to demonstrate just how important the "time factor" is between a QB and his receivers. More time = more understanding, to the point where Manning and Reggie Wayne sometimes just seem to look at each other a certain way and know what the other is thinking. The same with Brady/Welker.

Wildcard Weekend (part 1)

So now we know where three teams will be headed in 2011. The Titans have confirmed Jeff Fisher will be their coach for at least another year. The Dolphins have signed Tony Sparano through 2013. Not, however, before arranging a meeting with Eric Mangini to come on board as a "consultant", cancelling a press conference along the way that would have been used to confirm Sparano as the 2011 coach of the Dolphins. The meeting with Mangini didn't go ahead in the end and Sparano has been confirmed, but the damage to the reputation of both the coach and owner has been done. Dolphins owner Stephen Ross now looks like a jackass. And he's pulled Sparano down with him, effectively sending the message to the players that "we couldn't get the guy we wanted and we couldn't find anyone else who would take the role, so we're bringing back Sparano for you. Enjoy." Of course the guy they "wanted" was Jim Harbaugh, who will now be coaching the 49ers for 2011. Harbaugh's first order of business? Quarterback. With both Alex and Troy Smith up for free agency, that leaves David Carr as the only guy signed for 2011. With Harbaughs college QB Andrew Luck staying on for another year, that means the 49ers might be looking for a trade. One option is Josh Johnson of the Buccaneers, who Harbaugh has worked with previously. I really like Johnson so you won't hear any complaints from me. The other possibility, outside of the draft of course, is a free agent. Topping that list might be Donovan McNabb who is expected to be released by the Redskins. Please Jim; don't. McNabb has done well, but he's not exactly Mr. Consistent and seems to have a real problem dealing with pressure. Please, let's just go somewhere else, with a young guy who you can mold. Please. Just before we have a look at this Saturday's wild card games, just time to point you in the direction of the latest work from NFL.com's Albert Breer. Good stuff. Now, games, which after all is what football is all about. New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks (4:30PM ET, NBC) The stage is set for an epic disappointment. Quite whose, we don't yet know. It could be the Seahawks, their hopes raised after stumbling to victory over the Rams. On the back of Mike Williams and a semi-resurgent Marshawn Lynch, the Seahawks have become the first 7-9 division champion, and the first team outside of a strike shortened season to make the playoffs with a losing record. It all looks so hopeful. It's a big achievement, especially after such miserable seasons as the Seahawks have endured in recent years (as a 49er fan I can only say one thing. Good). Maybe this is their time to shine again? Or maybe it's their time to get their dreams crushed, as the Saints roll into town and flatten their helpless and hapless opponents in a demonstration of such sheer dominance and offensive power that the French nation promptly surrender to Coach Payton before he turns on them (a bit of good ol' fashion British light hearted humour/Xenophobia/racism there). Conversely, it could be the Saints in for a shock. God knows it would be a shock to all of us if Seattle wins, but they have a few things in their favour. Last year the Saints finished the regular season with a +11 turnover differential. This year the Saints finished at -6. That's not helped by the loss of running backs Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory. The expectation now is that with the loss of his run game, Drew Brees will have to throw even more, possibly close to 50 times in this game. With Brees's recent problems with interceptions, that could be a potential gold mine waiting to be tapped for Seattle. Then we have the crowd. The noise in Qwest Field is pretty legendary, and in a playoff game there is likely to be little respite for the Saints. That throws up issues of false starts at critical moments and a breakdown of communication, especially during audibles. The Saints are used to very loud stadiums, but not when their offense is on the field. Finally; just the sheer surprise factor of the Seahawks. They have nothing to lose and everything to gain, the exact opposite of the defending champion Saints. If the Saints are too cocky it could be their downfall. Too conservative and the same applies. Meanwhile the Seahawks can dig deep into the playbook on both sides of the ball and just go all out for the win. If they crash and burn, who cares? If Seattle gets hammered 45-0 I wont batter an eye lid (just laugh. Heartily). On paper I would expect the Saints to do just that. It's not like Seahawks fans realistically expect their team to beat the Saints. And if they lose by just 3 points? That's still a loss, so all that conservative play just went out of the window for nothing. If the Seahawks just come out, have fun and let it all hang loose, who knows? I should also probably take the time right now to point out that I wont be doing picks this week, or for the rest of the season (possibly not even for the whole of next season). My regular season record was just over .500, my playoff record from last year was terrible (including 0-7 from the Divisional round onwards if I remember rightly) and just generally I find it much more enjoyable watching games when I'm not secretly cheering on one side or the other because I picked them. And that's before we get onto the issue of teams not doing as their told (Texans, Panthers, Titans etc. Hate those guys). I doubt it'll be a great loss to the world. New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts (8:00PM ET, NBC) Surprise, surprise, Rex Ryan has been writing checks with his mouth that his team potentially wont be able to cash. The way to the Super Bowl would see the Jets likely take on Peyton Manning, arguably the best QB in the league today, followed by Tom Brady, arguably the best QB in the league today, and then possibly followed by Ben Roethlisberger, arguably the best QB in the league today. That's a hell of a lot of good quarterbacks to be facing, even for the Jets defense. While they have the potential to be very solid, they've also had their fair share of struggles this season, including against the Browns, a team not noted for the wild success of its offense. Let us not forget also that all of these teams must be overcome with Mark Sanchez at the helm for the Jets offense. Now just to recap, that means Mark Sanchez versus (potentially); -- The Colts defense, which was already good and has only got better lately. The Colts D gave up the highest percentage of passes completed in the regular season, but were in the top half of the table for least passing yards allowed. This is also a defense that gave up less touchdowns than the Jets. -- The Patriots defense, which gave up one more TD than the Jets D (25 to 24), but recorded over double the number of interceptions (25 to 12). -- The Steelers defense, which; conceded the second least yards per game (behind the Chargers), the least total points (232 compared to the Jets 304), the least points per game (14.5), conceded the second least (tied) percentage of 3rd down conversions (32%), recorded the most sacks (48), gave up less touchdowns (15) than it had interceptions (21), and gave up the fewest rushing yards (1,004) which was about 437 yards better than the second placed team (Chicago). In other words, it's going to be bloody hard for the Jets to make a dent in a very strong playoff group. The added pressure of Rex Ryan telling the world that he doesn't think Brady works as hard as Manning or can cope as well without his coaches as Manning, only helps to set up a great (and embarrassing) down fall in the divisional round. That's providing of course that they can topple the Colts. That would be the Indianapolis Colts who struggled at times, especially in the middle of the season, but otherwise did very well for themselves. Despite the hiccups, the Colts offense still finished with the 4th most points in the regular season and picked up more first downs per game than any other team. In particular Manning and the Colts love games like this. Racking up the points on offense entices the opposing side into a shoot out. That's where Freeney and Mathis come in. If the back end can hold up long enough (helped dramatically by playing less experienced QB's like Sanchez) that opens the door for a furious pass rush. When your rushing attack stinks, as the Jets has lately, that only increases your appearance of one dimensionality further. The Jets have fought and battled at times and somehow came through with the record that they did. If they want to go any further, it's going to take a tremendous effort. All I know is it's going to be a hell of a lot of fun to watch! Tomorrow I'll be back to recap the Saturday action and to look forward to Sunday's game.

"Pick" of the week (chortle, chortle)

My eye lids are hanging, barely open. Just enough time then to point you in the direction of this article on Colts.com. For those who lack the time or the inclination to read it, it is basically an article about the Colts, saying that the leagues renewed offense on defense will not affect them as they always "abide by the rules". If that is the case, then someone needs to show Coach Caldwell and Peyton Manning the section covering the use of illegal "pick" plays. Because there is no worse, repeat offender on this issue than the Colts. Have a great day everyone.

Pre-season week 4 preview (part 1)

We'll start briefly with some news and then we'll hit the preview for the first eight of Thursdays 16 pre-season games. -- Brett Favre catches our attention first. Favre has told Sports Illustrated that he is unsure whether his ankle will hold up to the rigors of the season ahead. Which is basically Favre speak for "I'm not sure how well we're going to play this season, best divert blame from myself". Nice to see him getting the excuses in early after a less than stellar game against the Seahawks. -- The NFL competition committee has concluded that Peyton Manning was right; the rule on the refs new position should be changed to specifically accommodate teams that run a no-huddle offense outside of the final two minutes of a half. And people wonder where fans get the idea that the NFL is being deliberately contorted into a pass first league or that teams like the Colts get favourable treatment? Think about the tuck rule for a minute. How long have we had that rule? How many times have pro-players from both sides of the ball, offense and defense, from all positions, complained about that? How many times have people spoken out against it? How many Head Coaches have complained about that stupid, mother f***ing tuck rule? But here we are, in 2010, with the rule still in place. Yet when Manning speaks out about a new rule, it's been changed almost immediately! Literally less than a week later and the rule has been altered! Are you kidding me? -- And finally, Jay Glazer of FoxSports has reported on his twitter account that several of his sources are telling him that the Cardinals have indeed begun to shop QB Matt Leinart. There's no word so far on what the asking price might be but it's unlikely to amount to anything more than a conditional pick in 2011. Right. Preview time!! It's week 4 of the pre-season so be prepared to see very little of the marquee names, while keeping a beady eye out for some hard fighting rookies and fringe veterans. Starting with: -- Bills @ Lions: Stoppable force meets movable object. Namely, the Bills offense against the Lions D. It's unlikely that C.J. Spiller will be called upon to play after a very impressive showing already in the pre-season. That leaves the Bills back at square one; leaning on a QB nobody trusts (any of them) throwing to receivers that nobody has faith in (any of them except maybe Lee Evans). Helping their cause is the potential that Ndamukong Suh and Kyle Vanden Bosch will not play, leaving the Lions defense back at square one; .... just plain terrible. So all eyes are on their offense. With Jahvid Best and Matthew Stafford watching from the sidelines, it's the perfect opportunity for Shaun Hill and Drew Stanton to battle for the back up QB job, while Aaron Brown and Kevin Smith fight for what looks like a place behind Best. -- Bengals @ Colts: Work of art laid out on the turf of Lucas Oil stadium. Or not, as the case may be. Curtis Painter will undoubtedly step up to the plate once more for the kind of unique spectacle that only he can provide. I'm flipping the coin of destiny now..... and it says heads; Painter has a good game! Stupid coin. So there you have it, scientific methodology at its best. Curtis Painter will rock the field on Thursday. As for the Bengals, my main focus is on the members of my rookie watch list, namely; WR Jordan Shipley, DT Geno Atkins, LB Roddrick Muckelroy and WR Dezmon Briscoe. It's unlikely that Carson Palmer will play for anything more than a few snaps, if that, so I'm not holding out high expectations of the two receivers. That said, if there was ever a way to get noticed on a team that possesses Chad Ochocino and Terrell Owens, then it's to make the back up QB (and me) look good. C'mon lads. -- Patriots @ Giants: The other New England/New York battle. At least we know this much about this game; the Jets hate both of them and they both hate the Jets. With that out of the way, down to business. Looking over the Patriots roster you kind of wonder whether they'll even miss Tom Brady, providing Zac Robinson and Brian Hoyer can avoid having a truly chronic game. Defensively there are a few more questions and holes, but this is what pre-season is all about. Looking at the Giants roster, I'm not even sure who will start at the receiver position. They're so thin that it's worrying, but I'm guessing Victor Cruz will get another chance to shine. On the defense, rookies DT Linval Joseph and DE Jason Pierre-Paul are unlikely to have a better chance than this to shine. -- Falcons @ Jaguars: Shocking end to pre-season. Will another Jaguars game be delayed by lightning? Will another Jaguars game be blacked out on TV? Will another Jaguars game be blacked out by lightning? Who knows. Providing the elements and the TV networks play ball, then we can see the Jaguars and Falcons play ball too. For the Falcons it's another great opportunity for DE Kroy Biermann and rookie DT Corey Peters to showcase their skills. Expect Sean Weatherspoon (rookie watch list) to go all out and show the Falcons what he can do to. I imagine the Jaguars will give Luke McCown another chance to shine and pile pressure on David Garrard. I'm hoping that Tyson Alualu (rookie watch list) (I really should post that somewhere on the sidebar) will be let loose again against an O-line that hasn't really inspired confidence this off season. I'm also intrigued to see how rookie DT Kommonyan Quaye gets on, for no other reason than having a spectacularly brilliant name. -- Panthers @ Steelers: Quarterback battles all the rage. So far, this is what we've deduced from watching Dennis Dixon and Byron Leftwich battle for the starting QB job in Pittsburgh; that Charlie Batch should probably get it. Batch is the only one who looks remotely comfortable behind that O-line and may get a lengthy shot on Thursday. After lengthy spells for the other running backs, I'm hoping to see Mewelde Moore get a proper chance to light up the field. It's unclear how much time the Panthers starting D-line will get to prove that their last game wasn't a fluke, but even the number twos should provide some fireworks. I'll be watching for rookie LB Eric Norwood (watch list) to put in a good showing as well. Offensively stay tuned for WR(s) Brandon LaFell and Armanti Edwards, as well as RB Mike Goodson. The QB job is still up in the air (no pun intended) so Moore and Clausen may have to put on the gloves and fight it out for a fourth round once again. -- Jets @ Eagles: The F***ing Jets, visit f***ing Philly for a f***ing game of f***ball. And time for a good test of their Revis-less secondary. More to the point, time to test rookie CB Kyle Wilson (watch list) to see whether he can fill in opposite Cromartie. The entire line-backing corps will also be worth watching to see how much pressure they can generate without Calvin Pace. If you start seeing blitzes from the slot, then be worried. The Eagles will probably turn the reins over to Michael Vick and Mike Kafka for the day, shielding Kevin Kolb from the Jets pass rush and the Philly press after a less than awesome start to his reign as the Eagles starting QB. Defensively I'm keyed in on rookie DT Jeff Owens (watch list) and veteran DE Juqua Parker trying to get his job back. -- Ravens @ Rams: Bulger has a point to prove. Literally. Returning back to the team that cut him loose, Bulger will be out to show that Rams that given the right toys to play with he can get the job done. Keep an eye out also for "Mount Cody" to get a full game against a Rams offense that has taken off under the guidance of Sam Bradford, but may just fall back flat on its face with Keith Null or Thaddeus Lewis under center. For the Rams the rookie watch list throws up WR Mardy Gilyard and CB Jerome Murphy. Murphy in particular might benefit if the Ravens continue with their aerial approach to the 2010 season. WR Danario Alexander is still injured I believe. Here's rooting as well for rookie TE Michael Hoomanawanui to carry the flag for players with awesome names. -- Bears @ Browns: Time for rookie QBs to show us what they've got. Namely Dan LeFevour for the Bears and Colt McCoy for the Browns. LeFevour was highly touted heading into the draft and projected to be possibly the 3rd QB to come off the board. He ended up sinking into the 6th round, being taken 181st overall. Now is the time to prove all those doubters wrong with a strong showing. Just a shame he has to do it with the O-line, receiving corps and RBs of the Bears. McCoy has a slightly easier task in the sense that it's slightly easier to find a needle in a haystack with the aid of a magnifying glass than it is without. To be fair he did put together a solid drive near the end of his last game, but ultimately still came up short. He certainly hasn't taken to the NFL like a certain Monsieur Tebow, but at least there are promising signs. Somewhere. Under that haystack. Look out as well for RB Montario Hardesty (rookie watch list) who apart from sounding like he should be a character in an Alexandre Dumas novel, is also known to carry the football. That then is eight games down, which leaves eight games for tomorrow. Then at some point on Thursday I've got to come back and review them all. Chances are I'll split the games into two posts. I will also endeavour to put the rookie watch list up somewhere where you can see it permanently; try and move the clickable ads around into a more manageable space (might as well try and claw back some revenue for the time invested); and also mess about with fonts to try and make it look a little less bland. As always any free word of mouth/e-mail/telephone/twitter/facebook promotion you care to give me is greatly appreciated, and you can still send me abusive e-mails about why I should pay more attention to 'Advanced NFL Stats' (www.advancednflstats.com) at: keepingthechainsmoving@live.co.uk Till tomorrow, Have a great day everyone.

4th and 2

It seems everyone else on the planet has voiced their opinion in the argument over whether Bill Belichick made the right choice going for it on that now infamous 4th down on Sunday Night, so I might as well have a crack to. First of all, I don't want to hear about statistics or percentages. All too often I think people try and break down the game of football into percentages and chances of xyz happening, that it's all about mathematics, without realising that their are human beings involved (and not to mention the weather). Football is nothing like flipping a coin or spinning a roulette wheel. There are a ton of variables to consider. Take for example the stat that I keep seeing people batting around. Every football mathematician (for want of a better word) keeps repeating the same percentage: that the Pats had a 65% shot of making it on first down. Really? Because looking at the numbers, prior to this 4th down attempt the Pats had completed just 5 of 10 on 4th down attempts. Now, I'm no expert on numbers, but I'm pretty bloody sure that equals 50%, not 65%. And that's for all fourth downs, even ones that were just inches. What are their stats at going 4th and 2? And then I keep hearing about the percentage chances of stopping the Colts etc and I cant help but think "hang on a second, what about the Colts chances of stopping the Pats on 4th"? Are we to assume that it only matters how successful the Pats have been in the past at getting the first down? Don't certain defenses have better chances of stopping teams than others? Or are you really going to sit there and argue that the Cleveland Browns are just as good at making stops on 4th down as the Pittsburgh Steelers? (In case you're wondering the Steelers now have an 80% success rate against 4th down attempts, while the Browns have just a 46% success rate, tied with the Colts who've now made 5 stops on 11 attempts). But I digress. First of all, something very important must be understood about this decision. If that choice had been made by say, Norv Turner or Tom Cable, they would probably be unemployed right now. It's Belichick though, which is the only reason so many people are sticking up for him. If it was Mangini, everyone in the world would be ridiculing him (and rightly so). Secondly, why, for the love of god, didn't the Pats run the ball on the third down? I know the old argument, that Welker is one of their best players etc and you think he can do it blah, blah. But it was 2 yards. Two. Give the ball to Kevin Faulk. You're a pass first team that everyone knows will try and throw it. So don't. Line up with 4 guys wide and run the ball two measly yards for the win. If you don't get it, it doesn't matter. You let the clock run to the two minute warning. Now anything that happens afterwards is reviewable from the booth. For example, if you now tried to throw for the 4th down and the refs incorrectly marked the spot...... Third, why call out your punt team, then recall them, then burn a timeout. If you're gonna punt, punt. If you're gonna go for it, go for it. If you're not sure, punt. Clock management here was terrible, and that's really unlike the Pats. And don't give me any of that "they weren't sure what play to go with" nonsense. Belichick is a student of the Bill Walsh method of coaching. He and his team will have practiced 4th and 2 before. He and his team would know exactly what play they were gonna run (your very best short yardage play). It was just poor coaching. Fourth, I found a beautiful analogy while I was reading comments that people had made about this very topic on another site. I present it here in full for you: "State of mind plays a role. If I bet you $100 that you couldn’t throw an egg 12″ in the air and catch it, would you take the bet? What if the bet was $10 million? What if you lost, your arm would be amputated? Or you were executed? In all scenarios, it’s throwing an egg 12″ in the air and catching it. Do you still think the success rates are the same?" In short, do you think Faulk bobbling the ball would have happened if it had been on the Colts 29 yard line and not the Pats? Fifth and finally, let's look at what happens if you fail to make it versus punting the ball. By all estimations, if the Pats punt the Colts would have started on about their own 30, there or there abouts. Obviously Peyton Manning is going to have a much easier time scoring from 29 yards than from 70. But there are two factors we really need to consider that make the choice of going for it on 4th down a bad move: 1) You've basically just said to your D, "Punt? Are you guys f***ing kidding me?! I'd rather ask my offense to try and go for it on 4th and lose the game if we fail, than trust you guys to stop Manning going 70 yards!" 2) Yes Manning put together two drives in the 70+ range in that quarter, but he also threw a pick in between those two drives. Manning is good, but with only around two minutes left in the half he can't use the run game at any point, he really has to pass to win. And with Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon dropping balls all over the shop, that's a chance I'd be willing to take. Let's not forget that the Colts had been far from stellar in this game. The only reason they scored on their previous drive was really the terrible pass interference call that put them in range. Yeah I know Manning is good, but on this day I think the Pats would have made the stop. I think Belichick made a horrible choice. And I think no amount of number crunching can take that away. Even if he'd made it, I still would have put it down as a bad choice. Ultimately it cost the Patriots the game, and could come back to haunt them in January.