Week 5 picks (part 1)

It's that time of the week again. Picks. I'm currently a terrible 29-33 and with another rough looking week on the horizon. We'll start today with the 1:00 pm kick offs: Jaguars @ Bills >>> I hate picks like this. The difficulty from my perspective is that both teams are so unreliable. The Jaguars with a good David Garrard at QB and Maurice Jones-Drew getting sufficient carries can be very, very good, as evidenced by their surprise victory over the Colts last week. However when Garrard plays badly and Jones-Drew gets limited carries, the Jaguars can implode in spectacular fashion. Coupled with this uncertainty is the question as to how many carries C.J. Spiller will get now that Marshawn Lynch is gone. I'm going to have to take the Jaguars, but I'm not confident in this one. Jaguars win. Broncos @ Ravens >>> The temptation of course is to point at the Ravens and say "easy win". This would be as a result of their tough defense. It sure as hell isn't because of their offense. But I have to temper this with the knowledge that they have so far beaten a terrible week one Jets, were beaten by a so-so Bengals, then beat the Browns (says it all) and a Steelers team that has struggled to find an offense. The Broncos on the other hand are sporting one of the most prolific pass offenses in the league. And if anyone can expose the Ravens secondary it's the Broncos. I'm prepared to take the hit on this one and side with the Broncos. Broncos win. Chiefs @ Colts >>> The leagues sole unbeaten team will be playing at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday. If this was any other year in recent memory then that team would have been the Colts. But it's not. It's the Chiefs. Now, I do like the Chiefs. Really I do. Without checking my rookie watch list to make sure, I'm fairly confident that they have the most representatives. But I just don't know. I've found that picking against the Colts has been costly. But then, picking for them has been costly too. In fact, come to think of it I haven't picked a Colts game correctly all season. My gut says Colts on this one. Colts win. Packers @ Redskins >>> Can we all please stop hyping the Redskins? The Redskins are a terrible team who have been unusually fortunate this year compared to last. Donovan McNabb has somehow done the impossible and actually made the Redskins offense worse this year. Packers win. Rams @ Lions >>> I agree with most that the Lions are very unlucky to be 0-4. The Rams have been no slouches themselves, especially on defense. What I'm trying to decide in my head is this; the Rams have so far played the Cardinals, Raiders, Redskins and Seahawks, but are the Lions better or worse than those teams? That is four really bad offenses. But they all probably have better Defenses than the Lions too. Choices, choices. I think I'm going with Detroit to pick up their first win. Lions win. Bears @ Panthers >>> See why I hate this week? So many match ups that are balanced very finely. The Bears will be starting with Todd Collins this week and have an O-line that gave up 9-10 sacks (can't remember which) last week. The Panthers meanwhile have proven to be rubbish on offense this year. A special teams return for Devin Hester could be enough to swing the game in Chicagos favour. On balance though, I'm backing the Panthers. Panthers win. Buccaneers @ Bengals >>> The Bucs' have been great. They really have. But against the Bengals? I know Cincinnati has taken a lot of flak lately, but they really aren't as bad as people are making out. I suspect it has a lot to do with the presence of Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens, in the sense that if the organised press can cause enough of a stir, maybe one of them will be drawn into saying something that the press can then wind out into a story that will last the rest of the season. Anyway, back on track. Bengals win. Falcons @ Browns >>> Respect to the Browns for beating the Bengals. Respect to the Falcons for nearly getting beaten by the 49ers. Who wins this one though? Tough, but I think the Falcons are in the better shape. The Browns have been heavily reliant on their rushing attack, channelled through FB Peyton Hillis. The Falcons have a great D-line and some superb linebackers like Curtis Lofton. The Browns on defense are..... well they're the Browns. Which means they're pretty vulnerable to the duel threat of Matt Ryan and Michael Turner. Falcons win. Giants @ Texans >>> I've given up trying to second guess the Texans. I hate them. The Giants meanwhile struggled on Sunday Night against a Bears team that looked like it would have been out matched by a Pop Warner team. I'm going to have to take the Texans. It's a no contest really. Texans win. And just like that, all the early kick offs are done. Really not happy with many of the games but then, that's football. Or rather, that's predicting football. Maybe I should complain to Roger Goodell and see if he can fix it so all games end in draws and then nobody gets their feelings hurt etc. On second thoughts, just by typing that I'm tempting fate..... Have a great day everyone.