49ers vs Lions; Gore's big runs

Today I promised to take a look at Frank Gore's two big runs of 47 and 55 yards from Sunday's game against the Lions, mainly because both runs came using roughly the same play call. Now I've since discovered this play was actually covered by Chris Smart on his site, smartfootball.com. Or more specifically, he covered it for Grantland.com and obviously left a link on his own site.

On this note I was about to abandon my plans on the principle of redundancy, until I noticed something about the write up that caught my eye, that being that the blocking scheme was actually drawn up wrong from the right guard leftwards. I should point out that this is very much unlike Mr. Smart, whose blog is normally one of the true gems of football blogging. But I wont complain, mainly because it gives me something to do by drawing it up.

We'll look at the 47 yard run to start with. The video clip of the play is here on NFL.com. First things first, lets look at the starting positions, pre-snap;

Before we get down to the detail, we need to point out some issues. The first thing an astute observer will notice is that the wide receiver on the left side is missing, as is the corner covering him. That's basically because they're not of great importance to this play. The other thing we have to be wary of is that there were no decent camera angles (all the more reason to switch to Skycam during games) so the position of the linebackers and and safeties may not be perfect. I did the best I could using the hash marks as a guide.

You'll also notice that the defensive end on the right hand side (from our perspective) is quite wide. This is because the tight end was split out a little and the end lined up on his outside shoulder. This is a good example of the fabled "wide nine" that the Eagles have been using and ironically enough - given the reason that I'm doing this - was covered by Chris Smart in his most recent post.

So now we've laid the ground work, just what is all the fuss about this run? Well as Mr. Smart pointed out, there are two tight ends on the field. One is Vernon Davis, who is split out to the right and has the defensive end lined up on his shoulder.The second is Delanie Walker, who is probably the most under rated asset on the 49ers offense. He's lined up behind Davis and is going to go in motion slightly towards the formation and then do something incredible. Kind of.

The 6 foot tall, 242 pound Walker is going to be asked to block the 6 foot 4 inch, 307 pound Ndamukong Suh.... Believe it.

So how does a tight end, known more for his receiving, manage to block a defensive tackle with a reputation for tough, physical play, and who out weighs him by 65 pounds? The answer is to use a bit of finesse and a bit of trickery; by giving Suh a sniff of an easy tackle for loss, and by putting the tight end in a position where he can block down on Suh from an angle, giving him an advantage in leverage while not asking him to knock Suh clean off the ball, just pin him inside for a moment.

(I should clarify at this point that the "N" in the diagram above means "Nose" not "Ndamukong". Suh is actually the "T" defensive tackle. I only just realised that this might cause confusion and, well, frankly it's easier to type this explanation than it is to go back and change the diagram!)

This is known as trap. You're giving the defensive linemen the impression that he has a free shot into the backfield, only to blindside him with another blocker. Not only is this an effective block on the play being run, but it also serves up a minor side effect of interest. In the future if that defensive linemen finds himself running free into the backfield (perhaps due to an assignment error by the offensive line) there's a chance he will hesitate for a moment and take a quick peek to the side, worried about getting trapped again. We sometimes see this same effect in defensive linemen when they play against a team that runs a lot of screen passes to backs.

Now, up to this point Chris Smart had the scheme down pat. But what he missed was what was happening from the right guard onwards. He wrote that the interior linemen went up to get the linebackers but that's actually not what happens. In fact both the right guard and the left guard are going to perform trap blocks themselves. The left guard, first rounder Mike Iupati (rookie watchlist from last year) is going to pull off the line and go left to get the wide defensive end on his side. The right guard, Adam Snyder, is going to pull off the line and go left to trap the other defensive tackle.

This does three things, all of which are important. Number one, it frees up the center and left tackle to go and get two of the linebackers. Number two, it draws the linebackers to move left (from our perspective), because they think they're seeing a power run to that side. This makes them easier to block for the offensive line. Number three, it draws the weak safety down and to the left for the same reason as the linebackers (he thinks he sees "power"), and this draws him away from the true path of the running back. Remember reasons two and three, we'll touch on them again later.

At this point I think it would be helpful to put up a visualisation to ease our understanding of what is taking place;

There we go. Now you can see all the blocking assignments for the offense, with the exception of the wide receiver off to the left, who would ignore the corner on his side in favour of coming inside and cracking down on the weak safety. The dotted line coming from Delanie Walker indicates his pre-snap motion, triggered by a small foot movement by quarterback Alex Smith. Walker shuffles across to get behind the right tackle, then after the snap he turns inward and slams into the side of Suh, trying to pin him inwards.

The only person left unblocked (and who has a realistic chance of actually making the play) is the strong safety Amari Spievey, who you can see lurking in the top right corner of the diagram. The play is run pretty much right at him and he comes flying downhill to fill the resulting gap and attempt the tackle. The trouble is he's counting on everyone else to fill the other gaps and unfortunately the "Sam" linebacker Bobby Carpenter (whose being blocked by 49ers right tackle Anthony Davis) ends up out of position. The ironic thing about that is that Carpenter actually does a great job of beating the block by Davis, chucking him to the side, but goes the wrong way. He goes into the gap already being filled by Spievey, leaving Gore with the opportunity to cut back to the inside and use Anthony Davis as a barrier.

Here I've drawn the play out with the approximate positions that everyone ends up in, also showing the path that Gore takes;

As you can see, Gore knifes right through the heart of the Lions D and will eventually be brought down near the Lions goal line for a 47 yard gain. Chris Houston, the corner on the right side (from our perspective) is the one who chases Gore down and makes the tackle, after 49ers receiver Ted Ginn jr. fails to make any contact with him at all, merely herding him away from the main effort of the play.

The second time the 49ers ran it, they got an even bigger gain of 55 yards. Video here for the interested. The blocking scheme works out slightly differently this time around, mainly due to the reaction of the defense. In this second run, the defensive end to the playside identifies the play and comes inside the tight end. The wide receiver to the playside cracks down on the "Sam" linebacker (who has in fact been replaced by Lions Nickel corner Eric Wright). The right tackle goes up and finds himself blocking the same man as the center. Luckily the tackle realises his mistake and comes off in time to block the strong safety.

In the end Gore cuts outside around the rushing end, then back inside of the wide receivers block on Wright, then back to the outside to get past the safety. Corner Chris Houston is on the field again, but he comes down far too wide and Gore is able to get inside of him and up the field. Houston ends up chasing the play down from behind and again making the tackle, which probably highlights the main flaw that Frank Gore has; his lack of speed in the open field.

Now before we wrap this up, do you remember earlier that I mentioned the pulling action of the guards drawing the linebackers and the weak safety across to the backside of the play? No? Well go back and read it again, because I did.

The reason why this happens is because the pulling action of the guards in that manner looks a lot like the action that happens when both guards pull for a "Power" play. The difference is that on the Power play the Guards would be lead blocking for the running back, whereas here the guards are going away from the running back. That adds another dimension to this play for the offense, as not only is it a good play in isolation, but it also serves as a compliment to the Power play, showing the defense one action but giving them two very different plays.

Which leads us nicely back to where we began, with Chris Smart, and an article he wrote in 2008 about the constraint theory of offense.

So that's your lot for today. Thanks for stopping bye and hopefully you'll spread the word about the blog. Tomorrow I'll follow up my post from last week about the "Outside Zone" running play by going over its sibling; the Inside Zone.

Till then, enjoy your day.

Week 5 Monday Night round up

Bears @ Lions

God. I'm now going to have to have to listen to talk about the Lions going to the Super Bowl for at least another week. In fact the Lions have three weeks till their bye, and each of those games has the potential for the opposition to slip up and fuel the Lions hype fire.

Because let's face it, that's what it is. I don't care about the Lions record. I'm not a huge stats fan anyway. I include numbers on this blog for the sole purpose of giving people a guide and because I know a lot of people care more about Fantasy football than actual football.

Me personally, I'm interested in what happens on the field. I'm interested only in whether I think a team can win the Super Bowl, because what you do in the regular season means nothing once you reach the playoffs. And the only team anyone ever remembers is the team that lifts the Lombardi trophy.

And I'm saying now, I don't think the Lions will.

It happens every year in the NFL. There's always at least one team, sometimes two that enter the playoffs with grossly inflated opinions of themselves. Last year it was two teams; the Falcons and the Bears. By any reasonable stretch of the imagination, neither team should really have been there. How the Bears made it as far as they did says more about their opponents than it does them.

This year it's the Lions, and as much as I hate to admit it, my own 49ers. Both teams are doing well... on paper. On the field it's a different story. Anyone who watches a 49ers game this season and thinks that team could win the Super Bowl this year is dreaming. The same applies to the Lions.

Detroit got mauled in the first half of both the Vikings and Cowboys games. If the Vikings had applied the same winning game plan from week 5 to week 3 (hammering the ball on the ground in the second half), then the Lions would have gone in to the Cowboys game at 2-1 having been trashed the week before. Then if only, if only the Cowboys (re: Romo and Garrett) hadn't blown the massive lead they built up, then the Lions would have come into this game 2-2, having been blown off the field in back to back games.

But sadly the footballing gods have deemed that Detroit came into this one 4-0, with all the hype that entails. They set about proving that they were the real deal and not just the all hype team by having a terrible first quarter, followed by a terrible second quarter, with the bomb to Calvin Johnson being the exception to their play, not the rule.

At least things got a bit better in the third. They put together a much better drive that ended with the Pettigrew TD. Then they ripped off an 88 yard touchdown run by Best, which basically ended the game. From that point onwards the Bears pretty much stuck their heads in the sand and tried to just avoid being beaten any further. They certainly didn't look like they were fighting to get back in it.

And that's what frustrates me. For the next week the media and the Lions fans will be going ape shit over this win and the Lions 5-0 record. The stupid thing is, last season I was saying that this season might be the year Detroit pulled it all together! Now they're 5-0, which in a way proves my point, but actually watching them play I think I might have been wrong. If you follow me.

I just look at it this way. If a) Johnson doesn't get such a massive free release on his touchdown and b) someone actually plugs that run gap on Best's 88 yard scamper, then the Lions probably don't win this. And that fact they struggled so much in such a scrappy game against the Bears of all people doesn't bode well.

The Bears have absolutely got more to worry about than the Lions though. One of the reasons I don't like statistics is because the official records will say that the Lions only had 3 sacks, which doesn't tell the story of just how chronically bad the Bears O-line were. They were even back to their old tricks of putting Cutler under center despite an empty backfield, an issue I've moaned about at length before.

The Bears just can't protect Cutler. Each pass play seems to consist of him either panicking, getting hit, or running for his life. It's an old complaint about Mike Martz and his system. Just ask Alex Smith how it worked out for him. I don't think Bears fans care how they do it, but somebody needs to step in and find a way to keep him clean. Maybe a little more play action, maybe some more eight man protections. But something has to be done.

The sole glimmer of hope for the Bears was Matt Forte, who carried 22 times for 116 yards (longest; 23). Though considering the game was never really out of sight until perhaps the Best TD went in, I'm surprised that Forte didn't carry more. It's the old cliche about putting the ball in the hands of your best players, playing to your strengths etc.

It took the Vikings five weeks to learn how to do it properly, that is to close out the win by sticking with the hot hand that you put you so far out in front. I presumed foolishly that the Bears had learnt from their 34 point offensive show against the Panthers, but apparently not. And I except that under normal circumstances, when you're behind you throw a lot to get yourself back in the game, taking the gamble because if you don't then you lose anyway.

But that's the sad thing about the Bears. Their O-line is so horrible in pass protection and Cutler is so nervous now behind that shaky line that running the football is literally the Bears best chance of picking up any significant yardage and scoring.

Of course we can't blame it all on the offense. The defense is not what it was in 2010. The pass rush is steadily going flat, the coverage has wide open holes in it and the run defense - as evidenced by the 163 yards that Jahvid Best put up on just 12 carries - needs some serious attention.

It's going to take more than a few Devin Hester kick and punt returns to fix the Bears woes. At least their bye is only three weeks away, after entertaining the Vikings next week and then playing in a half empty stadium against Tampa in week 7 (I got a phone call today from the official ticket agents for the Wembley game, who are trying desperately to flog off cut price tickets. Oh dear).

The Lions - the jammy bastards that they are - have a nice schedule ahead. They have two more home games against the 49ers and Falcons, who are apt to piss games away. Then the Lions travel to Denver and we'll know more in the coming week about whether Tebow starts in week 6, which will have a significant impact on the potential for the Lions to go 8-0 into their bye.

The second half of the season looks much tougher for the Lions, with two games against the Packers, a trip to Oakland, a visit from Adrian Peterson and the Vikings, and a trip to the Saints. We'll see how long that -0 lasts...

Right, that's your lot for today. I'm off to write a complaint letter to ESPN, kindly requesting that they gag Jon Gruden in future so we don't have to listen to him giving effusive praise to everyone on the field, regardless of how good or bad they may be.

Tomorrow... I had something planned, but I can't remember what it was now. I'll probably just end up drawing a random diagram of something as a result. Also, if the site appearance changes over the coming days don't be alarmed, I'm just trying to figure out ways of squeezing more money out of you.

Did I say that out loud? I meant to say, enhancing your reading experience.

To help with this, I highly recommend you click that Facebook like button thing at the bottom of this post. Go on, you know you want to find out what it does.

2011 Draft: Detroit Lions

Should be a quick one today, with only five players taken by the Lions.

Starting in round one with Nick Fairley, defensive tackle, Auburn. And of course the big question surrounding Fairley, some might even say plaguing him, has been whether Fairley is a one hit wonder or not. Having put on a great performance in 2010, will that carry over to the NFL or did he just luck out for that one year?

I'm pretty convinced by Fairley to be honest. Pick a game, almost any game from last year, and what you'll see is Nick Fairley causing havoc against some of the best teams in the country. He is a real danger man in the middle. To shut him up teams often had to resort to using two and sometimes three people to block him.

Blocking Fairley one on one was a risk. You might get away with it for a few snaps, but eventually you had to know that he was going to beat your guard or your center in a single block and make it deep into the backfield. And boy, did he ever spend some time in peoples backfields.

Ok, that sounded wrong.

Anyway, Fairley has a lot of strength. His initial move off the snap is incredibly fast and powerful. He uses his hands ok, but he'll need a bit of work in that regard at the next level. It tends to not matter so much though because his burst off the line is critical. If he can catch a guard on the shoulder as opposed to head on, then he often has the raw strength and speed to work his way into the backfield regardless of what the guard has to say about the matter.

Once in the backfield his speed over short distances often prevails, getting in the quarterbacks face or wrapping up the running back before he has a chance to really get going. If Fairley does have one major fault it's that his short range speed seems to drain the "desire" tank quite quickly. If the play spills to the edge, Fairley often is one of the last in pursuit.

But despite that minor setback, his raw talent makes him incredibly attractive as a prospect for the Lions. Teamed up in the middle with Ndamukong Suh, with Kyle Vanden Bosch on one side and Cliff Avril on the other, that Lions D-line just became a really tough proposition for their opponents this year. The thinking is likely along the lines that pressure generated up front will make it a little easier on the secondary this year.

If Fairley can help what was already a well developing D-line to start getting to the quarterback on a more regular basis (and quicker) it will force quarterbacks to hurry and get the ball out of their hands early, hopefully throwing off their accuracy a little. With any luck (for Lions fans at least) that'll provide their pass defense with a chance to actually make some plays.

Next up, the first of two second round picks was Titus Young, wide receiver, Boise State. Now originally I was a bit of a Titus Young fan. But lately that opinion is starting to slide. It's not the fact that he comes across as a cocky little bastard, although he does. That in itself is not always a bad thing (only when cockiness becomes complacency).

Rather the issue is one related to hands, route technique and work rate. I'll pick up the last one first (with me?) because it's something that really bugs me. You can tell when Boise is about to run a play where Young is not the number one or two guy, because he literally jogs off the line. I'm not even joking, or exaggerating. In fact, "jogging" might be giving Young too much credit. Perhaps slowly trundling off the line might do it more justice.

That really annoys me. You have to make the defense think on every play that you are a danger to them. You have to make the corner, the nearest linebacker and the safety to your side all think that at any second you might make a break and speed on by them. Otherwise you're just making their decision making cycle so much easier.

That safety who might otherwise have come all the way across to the sideline to cover you can now turn and take an angle across the field to go and chase down that running play which is headed in the opposite direction. What might have been a touchdown now becomes a 40 yard gain. That can make all the difference in a tight game in the NFL.

Related to the effort problem is his blocking, both on run plays and screen plays. Simply put, Young doesn't block. He kind of shields. It's more like watching a defender in basketball as opposed to a committed NFL blocker. There was even a screen play where he let a defender run right by him, while he just stared at the guy. What he didn't realise was that the ball carrier was dancing around behind him and having beaten one man was then promptly tackled from behind by the guy that Young was supposed to block.

Now, route technique. Or as I like to call it, lack of route technique. He doesn't have much awareness of the defender and the leverage the defender is using against him (inside vs. outside etc). His adjustments to the coverage are sloppy at best and he has a really nasty tendency to false step at the start of his route. He has speed, but he doesn't make the most of it with his breaks, which are often slow and highly telegraphed.

Have you guessed yet which group I coached last?

Finally we have hands. Previously I'd seen a lot of good in Young. There are certainly some great catches on tape, including one handers. But having taken a more extensive and laborious look there are some worrying points to pick up. There are quite a lot of drops. Quite a lot. His use of the hands is generally ok when the ball is coming over his head except that he sometimes has the reverse problem to Braylon Edwards, in that Edwards has a tendency to hold his hands too close to his face, while Young tends to hold them too far away from his body.

When catching flatter passes, ones that come at him more at head height and that he's looking straight at, he has a tendency to open his hands too much. Typically you want the tips of your thumbs and the tips of your fingers to be almost touching, but Young prefers the approach of keeping his hands wide and trying to time the catch perfectly. There is a good reason why not many people do this, namely that it's bloody difficult to pull off on a consistent basis.

Honestly speaking, I don't know what I saw in Young first time round. Yes, he does sometimes have those highlight reel catches. Yes, he does sometimes display great agility with the ball in his hands. But personally I think I'd rather have Austin Pettis from Boise, which is saying something (though Pettis is growing on me the more I watch Boise).

Next up up in round two was Mikel Leshoure, running back, Illinois. I was a little surprised by this, given that Detroit traded up last year to get their hands on Jahvid Best, but I guess two backs are better than one so there we go.

And Leshoure is a good back. He's sometimes is a little indecisive in short yardage, probably as a function of wanting to look for the big play, but other than that he usually has a good feel and vision for holes around the line. He has quick feet and is pretty strong for a back. Normally when Leshoure meets a defender he drops his shoulder and gives as good as gets, driving his feet all the way through for extra yards, which is such an under rated skill.

In the passing game he has pretty good hands and his route running is about average. He blocks well when called upon. In fact, Leshoure is one of the few backs (including the NFL) who can block "properly", that is to say that he stands up and uses technique to defeat his man, instead of constantly trying to dive at the guys feet and cut him.

Overall Leshoure is one of the better backs in the draft this year. Will he be another Chris Johnson? No. He's not really what you would call home run hitter, mainly because he lacks a bit of speed in the open field. But his quality throughout every phase of his game is very useful and you can see him being a solid contributor for many years on this Lions team. He should compliment the speed and explosiveness of Best well, being more of a head on, tough style runner who can give you consistent yards and occasionally big plays.

Next the Lions had to wait until the fifth round, where they took Doug Hogue, Linebacker, from Syracuse. Otherwise known as "Doug ho-God do I have to watch anymore of this?"

He has flashes of speed which sometimes find him in the backfield making the tackle, but you really have to work hard to notice when Hogue actually makes a difference to a game. He just doesn't do a lot. Occasionally he fills in the running game, but overall he's a spectator not a play maker. Might have a future as a weak linebacker in the Lions 4-3, but don't count on it. Could be gone by the end of camp.

After Hogue, Lions fans had to wait with unbearable anticipation until the seventh round to see who their team would take next, and it was..... Johnny Culbreath, offensive tackle, South Carolina state. The question you're probably asking is; who? And the answer is; I have no idea! Seriously. I haven't seen so much as a second on Culbreath and so I can't say a thing I'm afraid.

In conclusion then, the Lions draft was... ok. I remember it being better, largely because I remember Young being better than what I've seen recently. I think everyone is hoping that he'll be the perfect partner to Calvin Johnson, but I'm really not sure. I just think he'll lack the consistency to really take that kind of role. Add on the Hogue and Culbreath picks and it doesn't pan out all that well.

But then Nick Fairley and Mikel Leshoure offer hope. Fairley might just have been the player with the most legitimate claim to have been the number one overall pick, so I think the Lions got a great deal at 13th overall. Leshoure will add a measure of stability to that offense and may even be able to help better at keeping Matthew Stafford upright this year.

So positives and negatives. I think if the Lions are going to make a splash this year though, it'll be their veterans who'll have to dig deep and make it happen. Suh needs to have another good year. And Stafford needs to stay healthy for more than about 3 games.

Next year I can see an O-line blitz coming for the Lions.

NFC North Prospects

Starting as ever in alphabetical order with.... Chicago Bears: I can't wait for the Bears to fall flat on their big, stupid faces. Potentially the worst team in the NFC North heading into 2010, somehow the Bears managed to conjure up the feigned reality that they're a good team and made it to the playoffs. In fact, it was worse. They beat the Seahawks (party time) to make it to the NFC Championship game. God I hate the Bears so much right now. Ok, ok, fair play to them. They beat those who were put in front of them and they turned a roster nightmare into a faint dream of glory. Credit to all involved. But now I want to see the wheels fall off the wagon and watch it go careening into a nearby valley, before exploding Hollywood style even though it's made of wood. Where was I going with that? I don't know, I just got carried awa with the thought of Jay Cutler on fire. So, free agency then. QB Caleb Haine is on the restricted list along with Devin aroma-sha-what's-his-name. Todd Collins is on the unrestricted list. That poses the tantalising question of whether Cutler will be the sole survivor at QB for the Bears in 2011. Lot of people talking about Haine's performance, so it wouldn't be a complete surprise if he was plucked from under their noses. Other than that, the Bears don't come off too badly from free agency at all. They keep pretty much all of their big name guys under contract. So yes, in other words the Bears roster will be as bad as it was last year!! (chortle, chortle). Honestly. People make a habit of being very middle of the road, non committal when talking about teams. Certainly the media has a vested interest in not hammering any one team too hard, lest they find themselves receiving a cool reception from said organisation in the future. But I'm a realist. The Bears suck. They are just horrible. I don't care if they made the NFC Championship game. They did it by beating the Seahawks. They should have lost to the Lions in the regular season, THE LIONS, but for the horror that is the "process of making the catch" rule. Luck plays its part in football, and the Bears rode theirs all the damn way. Picking 29th overall the Bears will be looking at their roster in horror. Outside of defensive linemen and maybe running back, they could use a brand new player at just about every position, including quarterback. Honestly, I really don't think people appreciate just how badly the Bears suck. As for 2011. Who knows? They should have sunk like a lead balloon in 2010, but somehow they didn't. Their luck may just extend to 2011. But at a guess I'd say they're about to take a tumble. I really hope so. I can't stand listening to people talking about them like they're the second coming of the '85 Bears. If their wagon doesn't ride off the cliff, I may just jump myself. Detroit Lions: Ahh the Lions. God bless them and their annual attempt to matter. Not win games. But just to matter, to make a show of things, just to prove that they're not a complete walk over. 2011 could be the year. I know, I know, I said the same thing about them at the start of the 2010 season. But this is different. Kind of. Another year in the system for the players. A core of rookies and veterans who have shown a lot of potential. And another round of draft picks to come. In free agency the Lions really wont miss out on much. DE Cliff Avril is up for restricted free agency, but other than that the Lions front office should be relatively happy with what they see. That means they can look forward to the draft, in which they pick 13th overall. Linebacker and secondary are likely to be the two main areas they go for, depending on what pick ups they make in free agency. If I remember correctly the free agent market for secondary guys is a little thin this year, so the draft will likely be the way forward. Luckily for the Lions, there are some attractive looking prospects on the board. So how does this translate into the win/loss column for the 2011 Lions? I think they'll do fine. The Bears will likely bomb out (I have my fingers crossed, trust me) and the Vikings are going back to the drawing board, so there is an opportunity to be had to pick up divisional wins. The Lions have a solid offense, it's just that D that needs a good kick up the arse. Green Bay Packers: They won the Super Bowl. Can't really say more about their 2010 season than that. More to the point, they did it well, with some great wins under adversity along the way. The fact that they were being ravaged by injury on a near constant basis says a lot about the strength and depth of this side. Free agency could be a problem though. Atari Bigby, Daryn Colledge, Mason Crosby (the kicker), Korey Hall, Brandon Jackson, Cullen Jenkins, James Jones and John Kuhn will all hit the market. That's a lot of very good (and in many cases under rated) players who could potentially be off for a big(ish) pay day somewhere else. Luckily for the Packers though, pretty much all of those positions are covered more than enough. That's just how good the Packers have been at drafting and playing the free agent market in recent years. If you want to talk dynasties for the 20-teens, Green Bay is looking like the most realistic candidate. And while they may be picking 32nd in the draft, that's of little concern. The Packers have two key advantages a) their excellent eye for talent and b) the fact that they have little need to reach out and grab anyone. They can just stock talent this year. It's an enviable position to be in. More to the point, 2011 could be even better than 2010 for the Packers. The chance is begging for them to storm a weakened division. They finally have the quality in depth to be able to pull off a 13 or 14 win season and still go on to win the big one again. Of course by saying all of this, I've naturally now doomed the Packers to fail this season. Bring on the 49ers then! (yeah, I'll go and put that one back in the dream box). Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings have a mysterious allure about them. Just like the Cowboys, you can't help but be sucked in by their story, watching and waiting for them to fail miserably and go ploughing head first into the turf. Much like they did in 2010! (boom, right there!). 2011 promises a repeat show. Leslie Frazier and his new Assistant Head Coach/Linebackers coach Mike Singletary (enjoy that one fellas) will be trying to pick up the pieces of the post Brett Favre era. It's also going to be the post Tavaris Jackson era. And the post Sidney Rice era. And the post Pat Williams era. And the post Ryan Longwell era. And the post Hank Baskett era (about which I'm sure the Vikings are gutted). Also on the way out (at least for now) is Ryan Cook, Ray Edwards (hot commodity in the making), Fred Evans, Ben Leber, Greg Lewis, Patrick Ramsey and Lito Sheppard. In short, the ship is sinking and these are the lucky ones who will get out before she cracks her back. Chad Greenway will, sadly for him at least, be sucked under the waves by the ship (interesting fact; this is actually a myth. Sinking ships don't suck people down from the surface. There you go). Greenway is set for a franchise tagging that will tie him down to the team for another year. That means he gets the joy of watching Joe Webb and Rhett Bomar battle it out for the starting QB spot. This is not helped by the lack of quality receivers. Percy Harvin will still be around, but Greg Camarillo and Bernard Berrian won't be striking fear into peoples hearts any time soon, though I do like Camarillo as a number 3 type guy playing underneath. The O-line will remain largely unchanged, but the Vikings D-line just got a lot skinnier, in more ways than one. The linebacking corps looks anaemic. At least the secondary isn't too bad. But this is definitely not going to be the year to take the Vikings D in fantasy football. Not even with the last pick. Just abstain from having a defense, you'll probably be better off. In the draft the Vikings pick at 12. The fact that they're picking before Detroit should serve to emphasise how dire their situation is. Defense will be the order of the day, but at some point they need a QB. Honestly though, I'm not sure there is anybody in the draft who is a standout, guaranteed starter, so taking a promising kid in the later rounds may be the best approach, then running with Webb and Bomar to give them a chance to prove their worth. Because (yeah I know) to be honest, I see 2011 as a year of rebuilding in Minnesota. Unless Leslie Frazier has the Lombardi touch, I really can't see him winning many games this year. As always in these situations, you just have to hope that a) he doesn't make things worse than they already are and b) people in Minnesota have a bit of patience. Things aren't going to get much better for the Vikings any time soon. Right then, that's your entire NFC preview for free agency and the draft. Well, in a way. Speaking of the latter, the combine kicks off tomorrow (technically today) and barring some kind of absurd miracle I will probably miss the vast majority of it. Which is a pain in the butt to say the least, as I sadly derive quite a bit of pleasure from watching the players perform the drills, complaining about the bench press, nodding approvingly at displays of good footwork, tutting discouragingly when a player messes up and screaming blue bloody murder at the monitor due to the NFL Networks arse about face coverage, which is usually about as well edited and smooth as a childs first home video. Ahh, those were the days.