2012 NFL Draft: Quarterbacks

Before we begin this round up, it's important to note once again that this is just my initial impressions based on what I've seen so far. I'll probably come back for a second look in depth at some of the more prominent individuals at a later date. If you're wondering why this is taking so much longer than last year, it's because my work schedule this year is so much more hectic, which is pressing the demands on time. As a result I may, with regard to the remaining groups, focus more on the high end prospects.


- Andrew Luck, Stanford: Before I even begin to talk about Luck, we need to caveat this whole speech. See, the very reason that I started this blog is because I was sick and tired of listening to some of the bile and hyperbole that gets thrown around the Internet and on TV by certain pundits, professional writers, bloggers, and analysts.

Enter Andrew Luck. Luck is by no means a bad quarterback, that much should be obvious to everybody. But by the same token, Luck is being given far too much credit. Many fans will already be familiar with this and thankfully a lot of people realise that Luck is perhaps being built up in the media a little beyond what he's actually capable of.

I'm not sure though if fans realise just to what extent that is the case. I watched one play for example against USC and compared it to the ESPN broadcast, where the commentator went on a loving monologue about how Luck was victimising this defender and intentionally doing this and that etc, when really he looked more like he was just going through his standard reads. Like normal.

This happens all the time in football. Everytime Peyton Manning steps up and calls something out to his line, he's tagged as having changed the play. How do you know that? Manning, like all quarterbacks, has to occasionally use fake audibles (fake calls) in order to keep the defense guessing. He's not always changing the play everytime he speaks, but commentators blindly credit him as doing so on every occasion.

Luck has the same problem, or rather, the same benefit. He's constantly being credited for things that a logical study of the game would suggest he's not actually doing. This goes back to an article I wrote a while back about how quarterbacks are always given credit for "dropping the ball into the receivers lap" on deep passes, when anyone with a modicum of understanding as to how these things actually work in reality knows that quarterbacks tend to just drop the ball in the approximate location of the receiver (within a few feet) and the receiver usually makes the final adjustment to secure the catch.

On that note, I have to say that I think Luck is over rated. It's hard for me to say something like that because I do think Luck is a very talented quarterback and his future in the NFL looks reasonably promising given the right situation and the right coaching.

He does have - shock, horror - some weaknesses though. The two primary ones that I've seen have been 1) that he's very much a short passing quarterback and 2) that he often makes some very poor decisions under pressure.

Addressing number one first, this was a big knock that I had on Blaine Gabbert (among many knocks) from last year. Luck has a good completion percentage largely because he routinely dumps the ball off to underneath receivers and is very disinclined to push the ball downfield. When he does attempt passes of over 10 yards, his accuracy is highly questionable (as in, very inconsistent).

That's not a bad thing in and of itself. Montana and Young made careers with the 49ers out of protecting the ball, finding the open receiver and letting receivers rack up the yards after the catch. Tom Brady has been doing it that way for the last few seasons. The trouble is that approach a) is very dependent on the quality of the receivers and, b) is a method that sometimes struggles when playing from behind.

Addressing point two, under pressure Luck has a tendency to just flick the ball out in an almost blase (I don't have one of those fancy e's with thing on it), shovel pass manner and sometimes throw bad passes up for grabs into dangerous spots. Rather than just eat the sack or throw the ball out of bounds he tries to make a play happen where there clearly isn't one, and if not punished for it, then often comes very close to being.

That combination - for me at least - throws up some serious questions that need answering. Can Luck carry a team single handed, without a sterling receiver corps? Can he put up enough yards on a team that has a poor running game? If he's drafted by a coach who wants to push the ball downfield (it's almost certainly going to be the Colts), can he get by without giving up too many takeaways? How will he cope under the relentless pressure of an NFL pass rush? When you consider that last year he got somewhat rattled by all the media attention surrounding him, how will he cope with being a first round pick and the "face of a franchise"?

Working in Lucks favour are a number of positive attributes. He does have a surprising turn of speed with his feet. His footwork when dropping back and moving in the pocket is excellent. Mentally he avoids pressure and works around the pocket very well. His conservative style means he doesn't turn the ball over much. His vision downfield is pretty good. I noticed he can throw the ball from any position in his hand, that is to say that he doesn't need the laces under his fingers like many quarterbacks. He's pretty accurate over short distances and he's known for being hard working.

All of these things present a coach with a very useful, very flexible player to work with who can probably start week one with the right offense in place. His prospects for technical development are - in my estimation - slightly above average for quarterbacks coming into the league. But the decision making under pressure and conservative style are nagging issues.

I think in order to succeed Luck will need a coach who understands his limitations and builds the offense around him. Someone like a Mike Martz is probably no use to Luck. He needs a slightly less ambitious offense that gives him good protection, plenty of options and is built to attack the opponent piece by piece, play by play, in a slower, more methodical fashion, with some nippy slot receivers.

So do I think Luck will make it big in the NFL? As always with young prospects, it's very hard to tell. He has a lot of raw tools in his favour to work with, however I just can't see him matching up to the hype that has been surrounding him for this last year. People expecting Luck to be the second coming of Peyton Manning are in for a sharp shock.

I'd place him more in the bracket with guys like Kyle Orton and Jay Cutler, in that I think with all the right set up then he could be successful, but he's not the kind of quarterback who is going to bring everyone else up to his level and he's not going to win games single handedly. His first season will tell us an awful lot about him, much of it quite surprising to many I'm sure.

Of course with the media the way it is, expect the pendulum of hype to swing wildly from "Golden Boy" to "Bust", which after just one season will absolutely be just as undeserved.

A 2011 Hail Mary

Well, I've finished looking at the Quarterbacks ahead of the 2011 draft (if there is one). There is always the chance I'll come back to this, especially given the potential for a work stoppage giving me more time for further review. At the very least I'm happy for now that I know enough about most of them. So let's begin. Blaine Gabbert: If I had a ten foot barge pole, I wouldn't touch Blaine Gabbert with it. In fact, if you gave me your ten foot barge pole, I wouldn't even touch him with that. And it has nothing to do with poor hygiene. It has everything to do with the fact that he looks terrible on film. I watched one game where he faced a three man rush on a regular basis, and he was bailing out of the pocket before those three were even close. In the NFL, staring down the face of a high speed blitz, I can see Gabbert collapsing like a wet house of cards. I just wouldn't go near him. Cam Newton: I hate Cam Newton already and he hasn't even entered the league yet. I've never known someone to receive so much hype, while showing such a lack of transferable talent. He runs quickly, I get that. He cuts with an insane level of agility. As a wide receiver or running back, Newton could probably have a reasonable shout providing he could learn to run routes. But as a Quarterback he looks doomed to end as a bust. I don't have enough fingers and toes to count the amount of times I saw him under throw receivers who were open down the field. He just seems to lack any demonstrable consistency or skill throwing into tight windows that will transfer to the NFL. He'll either tear the league to pieces with his feet, or they'll tear him to pieces in the pocket. Ryan Mallett: I'm still undecided on Mallett. Apparently he's an asshole of the highest order. There are question marks over possible drug use. All in all, a lot of things that could seriously impact his career, and they're all things I can't really do anything to assess. On the field, he's fine. I have zero questions about his level of playing ability. But a lack of hard work and leadership, if these things are indeed true, could seriously effect his ability to blend in with a team. I'm just not sure right now. Jake Locker: Much the same as Newton, I worry about Locker as a passer. I'm not convinced. I certainly wouldn't use a first rounder on him. He can run and sometimes he can throw great, but consistency from the pocket? I'm just not happy with Locker. I can see him being a Jimmy Clausen type. Colin Kaepernick: This is a running theme, but I'm not sold on Kaepernick as a passer. A lot of this comes down to the legacy of certain spread offenses in college that encourage QB running and option plays over pocket passing. Unfortunately NFL pockets collapse much quicker and some of the linebackers can run just as quickly as guys like Kaepernick. Christian Ponder: Sold! Excellent footwork, passing and vision. I like Ponder a lot. I think he's slipped quietly under a lot of radars thanks to the Newton/Gabbert/Mallett trifecta of hype. Ponder will probably slip out of the first round, providing someone with a value pick later on. Ricky Stanzi: My favourite. He was ok at the combine, but on film Stanzi looks fantastic. The way this kid drops passes into tight windows over his receivers shoulders is something special to behold. Stanzi might drop right down, maybe even to the fifth round. I'd happily use a first on this kid (I believe in trusting your instincts) but given that he's not highly sought after at the minute, you could hold till the second at least and still pick up the best prospect in this years Qb class (in my opinion). Andy Dalton: At the combine, he barely put a foot wrong, but I'm not completely sold on Dalton. Partly that's because of a chronic shortage of film for this kid, but even the stuff I've seen throws up some question marks. In general though Dalton should do fine. He might take a little more time than some of the others, but he'll get there. Should prove to be a safe pick outside of the top 44. Jeff Van Camp: Will likely still be there when the sixth and possibly seventh round comes about. At that price he'd be a complete bargain. I could happily take Van Camp with a late first rounder, though obviously there is no need. He'll slip. But teams could be looking back on this kid in years gone by and kicking themselves for passing him up. Accuracy? Check. Arm Strength? Check. Vision? Check. Cool in the pocket? Check. Watching Van Camp, the most obvious feature was the total lack of decent protection from his O-line and running backs. Yet he stayed in the pocket, braved it out, and made some great throws under severe pressure. Can't speak highly enough of Van Camp. Kellen Moore: Nobody is talking about Kellen Moore. He'll probably still be there when the last name is called on the final day of the draft. Which is a shame. People are looking at Moore as a backup, as an undrafted rookie that might fill a roster spot for the future. Honestly? I'd take Moore over Gabbert, Newton, Kaepernick or Locker in a heartbeat. Just like that. The kid has a lot of talent as a pure passer, but it would appear being a QB at Boise State isn't enough to draw the scouts attention. Shame. Damn shame. Mike Hartline: QB for the Kentucky Wildcats in case you were wondering. An arrest for alcohol intoxication and disorderly conduct could have scuppered any chance of a career before it potentially begins. Which is unfortunate. I remember watching Hartline for the first time. I was actually looking at Randall Cobb, when Hartline caught the eye. He has great anticipation. It's almost like he's watched the game already and now he's just going back to exploit openings. I hope Hartline gets a shot because he has untapped talent. Of the quarterbacks then, who will make my rookie watchlist? Well, nothing is set in stone yet. There is still plenty of time to do more work and change my mind, but I see these guys making it at the minute: - Christian Ponder, - Ricky Stanzi, - Jeff Van Camp, - Kellen Moore, - Mike Hartline, - Ryan Mallett (for now) - Andy Dalton (for now) I'll probably be concentrating on the world of running backs next me thinks. I'll report back when I've gone through the lot. I'm probably half way through the list of players that I'm interested in. Also I'm working on a piece now, in little chunks when I have the time, about how as an outsider looking I think Football can tell us a lot about America as a whole. Stay tuned.