2011 Pre-Season Week 3 (part 1)

As we edge closer to the start of the season it's time to take a look at how the Thursday and Friday games from pre-season week 3 panned out. Starting with...

The Panthers @ Bengals. And you know you're looking bad when this Bengals team can beat you. At this juncture it's probably a good time to point out that the Bengals did most of the damage with their starters against the Panthers starters, before anyone starts talking about third stringers.

Though initially it seemed bright enough for the Panthers with Cam Newton running 16 yards for the first score. But that's kind of where the fun ended for Cam, who finished 6/19 for 75 yards. Yes, 6/19. Now I know he's a rookie but that's still pretty bad. What I love most though is that had this been Tim Tebow in his rookie year, people would have been pouring on the hate. But I'm not hearing it now? Funny that. Ok, I'll make it up for all the lost voices; Newton is going to suck this year. And probably every other year.

There you go.

On the other side Andy Dalton started to show some signs of life, throwing 11/17 for 130 yards and a TD. Getting there Andy. Very slowly, but getting there. The real focus for the Bengals though should be on that running game. Cedric Benson and Bernard Scott combined for 22 carries, producing 131 yards and 2 touchdowns. The vitality of this running attack could just be the key to getting Dalton through the season with some semblance of success.

Next was the Browns @ Eagles. Mike Vick took some lumps for the Eagles, but complimented his 10/18 for 98 yards passing with 4 carries for 24 yards and a TD. Vince Young played the "anything you can do, I can do precisely the same" game, by also carrying 4 times for 24 yards and a TD. Running backs Ronnie Brown and Dion Lewis did a lot of the ground work, but LeSean McCoy was the back that got the cream, with 7 catches for a team leading 69 yards receiving.

For the Browns, Colt McCoy looked a little less assured this time around, with 9/18 for 89 yards plus an interception off a poor decision, throwing the ball under pressure to a waiting Asante Samuel who dropped off his outside receiver and snuck underneath the pass to make a great pick. Seneca Wallace clawed back a TD pass for the Browns, before rookie Jarrett Brown hit the field and went 4/4 for 35 yards and a TD. Kid's had quite a solid pre-season so far.

On defense it was all about the Eagles, who accompanied Samuel's interception with five sacks. They're still not quite the Dream Team in Philadelphia, but at least they look a little less shaky now.

Next was the Redskins @ Ravens, and quite a tight game. The Redskins quarterback battle continues with Rex Grossman throwing 8/15 for 112 yards and a TD to John Becks 6/10 for 108 yards and a TD, plus an INT. Overall I'm not sure who will win. Grossman has had the lions share of the playing time so he has more film for Shanahan and son to review, but I think Beck might just sneak it. He just looks a little sharper in general.

The story of the Redskins is still their running game though. Tim Hightower and rookie Roy Helu put up exactly 100 yards between them on 22 carries. Hightower also had a touchdown. Second year wide receiver Terrence Austin also impressed, with 5 carries for 71 yards and a TD. The 'skins defense also looked a bit better, with an interception by DeAngelo Hall and four sacks as a unit, including single sacks for rookies Ryan Kerrigan and Davonte Shannon.

For the Ravens, Joe Flacco kind of looked better in this game. Sort of. A little. Trying to find nice things to say about someone I don't rate all that much. He finished 17/27 for 219 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception (the DeAngelo Hall pick 6). Rookie Tyrod Taylor definitely improved, with 11/18 for 125 yards and a TD. Running back Ray Rice found his groove (13 carries, 72 yards, 1 TD) as did recent acquisition receiver Lee Evans, who caught 3 passes for 60 yards and a TD. Anquan Boldin had 5 catches for 73 yards and a TD as well. Ladarius Webb stood out on the Ravens D, with an interception and a sack.

Packers @ Colts next. The Curtis Painter saga continues. People have been heaping praise on him in the last few hours but I would say hold up a second. He was 11/21 for 171 yards and 2 touchdowns. That's not bad, but let's face it, for Curtis Painter that is practically a career performance. To top it off, 57 of those hallowed yards came when Reggie Wayne was left wide open as corner Sam Shields tried to emulate Asante Samuel's baiting trick from the day before... except Samuel had a safety playing the proper technique over the top and Shields didn't. The result was the Wayne TD. And Painter still sucks.

Aaron Rodgers doesn't though, finishing the game 19/23 for 204 yards and a TD, while looking just as slick as he did in last years Super Bowl. Except for that stupid moustache come beard thing he's sporting now. You're not rock and roll Aaron. AC/DC will not be calling anytime soon. "Rookie" Graham Harrell (he's 26 and played in the pre-season last year) then came in and finished the game 12/21 for 85 yards, an interception, but also a touchdown with just 35 seconds left on the clock, followed by a two point conversion.

The Packers then caught the Colts napping with an onside kick, demonstrating the lack of game management from Colts Head Coach Jim Caldwell that hurt his team at times last year.

Both defenses did well. The Packers had 4 sacks, one by Clay Matthews and the other three coming from rookies. The Colts D produced 5, including two for Dwight Freeney and one for former Bear Tommie Harris. This is definitely a positive sign, given that in the Peyton Manning era the defense has often let down the rest of the team.

Finally for today we have the Rams @ Chiefs. Quarterback Sam Bradford looked ok for the Rams, throwing 9/16 for 95 yards and 2 touchdowns, but also a dangerous interception while backed up near his own goal line, as he failed to see the grossly under rated linebacker Derrick Johnson lurking in underneath coverage. Johnson also had a sack. Rams back up A.J. Feely was 8/13 for 65 yards and an interception.

The Rams rushing attack did much better though. Steven Jackson turned 15 carries into 72 yards while Cadillac Williams carried 12 times for 53 yards. Rookie Tight End Lance Kendricks has been making me look good for calling him better than Kyle Rudolph and he continued that theme against the Chiefs with 2 catches for 26 yards and a touchdown. On defense, rookie defensive end Robert Quinn restored my rookie predicting karma to zero, by defying my criticism of him and having a sack/fumble, plus blocking a field goal.

But then on the Chiefs side Ricky Stanzi tried to get me back on the plus side for this game, finally pulling his finger out of his arse to throw 8/14 for 121 yards and a lovely touchdown pass, with no interceptions. Keep it up. Matt Cassel meanwhile wallowed in his own personal well of mediocrity, with 6/13 for 59 yards. Tip; when you make Tyler Palko look good (7/12, 92 yards) then you're doing something very wrong.

That's it for today. If you think I'm doing all of Saturdays games in one marathon chunk tomorrow then you've got another thing coming. I'll likely be back Monday night (technically Tuesday morning here). Till then, have a good weekend, enjoy the football and don't forget to hit the Facebook-like-button-thingy at the bottom.

Do it.

2011 NFL Draft: St. Louis Rams

The last in this series for the NFC West, it's time to take a look at the St. Louis Rams draft class.

Now the Rams came into this draft in pretty good shape after last year. They narrowly missed out on the playoffs in 2010, thanks to a much improved offense under the leadership of rookie QB Sam Bradford. The addition last time around of OT Roger Saffold was also a handy little pick that helped set the Rams up for a more open draft this year. With their offense looking a lot more healthy, they could devote a bit more time to defense.

They went straight for the jugular with the first pick, taking Defensive End Robert Quinn from North Carolina, in order to find a foil to work opposite Chris Long and exploit opposing teams over attention to the left side.

But I have a funny feeling they whiffed this one. Stick with me on this. Quinn played pretty well in College. On tape he looked pretty good. He was quick. He was strong. He at times made some opposing offensive tackles look foolish. So what can we take from that?

Not a lot is my opinion. See, good luck finding any game tape of Quinn that has a date on it past say March 2010. That's not because the Tar Heels are jealously hoarding any film of their team from last season. Instead it results from the fact that Quinn didn't play a down during the 2010 season.

He was suspended after being found guilty of taking over $5000 in gifts from an agent, then lying to NCAA investigators about the matter. That means that Quinn has done nothing more demanding in the last 12 months than basic drills for a defensive end and has no recent experience on the field. That for me is a problem.

The NFL is the top level of football in the world. It demands the absolute best from every player. 12 months out of the game, even for a good player with natural physical talents like Quinn, may just be too much. But there is another concern as well that I just can't shake.

In 2009 Quinn had 11 sacks. 10 of those sacks came in games played at home, just 1 away. 8 of his sacks were picked up in three games. Six of them (over half) came in just two games, three in each. While that's still not to be sniffed at, my problem is the consistency. Will Quinn consistently pitch in with sacks over the course of the season?

I'm not convinced and that's probably the biggest complaint I have. Notching up sacks is great, but to be a great player and to contribute to creating a winning team, you have to be able to bring that heat game after game, putting consistent pressure on the quarterback almost every down. I just don't think Quinn brings that to the table.

In addition, his play against the run is very limited. Quinn appears on tape to be the kind of end who is more pre-occupied with getting after the QB and has a tendency to get man handled a little too easily in the running game. He often struggles to set the edge properly and keep containment.

Now remember again that all of this was during the 2009 season. He hasn't played since, so I can't see any of those factors improving. When you keep in mind that Ryan Kerrigan was still on the board (he went two picks later to Washington), then I don't see the case for taking Quinn. Kerrigan is probably a better outright football player and, all things considered, a much safer pick in the first round.

But let's move on, for we have another seven guys to cover. Next up is Tight End Lance Kendricks from Wisconsin and I like this pick a lot. While the Rams haven't exactly been short of tight ends, finding a really good one has been problematic. I think Kendricks may solve that problem.

The key feature is that he brings a lot of versatility to the table. He's very strong and this shows up consistently in game. His run blocking is very good and when he gets hit you can see him absorb the shock and continue on to plough over people.

His route running is good, which is handy given that new offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is likely going to want to air it out on a regular basis. He has good hands and combined with that strength and run blocking I mentioned you can see Kendricks being a useful tool in and around the goal line, and also in short yardage. He gives the Rams offensive a bit of punch I feel.

To go with punch though, you also need a bit of finesse. The fine wine to match the stout bitter. Enter third round pick wide receiver Austin Pettis, Boise State. Not that the Rams needed a new receiver, given that they have about a thousand already on their books (that number may have been slightly exaggerated).

So, what's Pettis like? Honestly? There's good and there's bad. The good is his ball handling and concentration. If I wanted to get the ball to a safe pair of hands on third down or in the red zone, Pettis is the guy I would be looking at. He really does have a great eye for the ball.

The trouble is a) getting him open and b) getting him anywhere after he's caught the ball. Because Pettis lacks what I would describe as polished route running and his run after the catch skills are highly dubious. He just doesn't seem all that quick in pads.

That presents something of a problem. It's one thing to be able to make great catches, but if you can't get any separation from College defenders then it's not likely to get any easier at the next level. In addition, the ability to catch the ball and then immediately get tackled on short routes is of dubious utility.

Maybe their fourth rounder will fair better, wide receiver Greg Salas, Hawai'i.

I love Salas; this is my kind of football player. He's very fluid in all his movements, his route running has some high points and he has very good hands. But all that stuff pales into the background compared to his toughness and run after the catch ability.

At the risk of over egging the pudding so to speak, think of Wes Welkers run after the catch but combined with the toughness of a Hines Ward or Anquan Boldin. I just have so much fun watching Salas play, watching him absorb hits and bounce off tacklers.

He's just the kind of remedy that the Rams needed; a guy that can play underneath on some of the shorter depth crossing routes, while the rest of that corps stretches the field vertically and creates even more space for him to run.

When you factor in as well his middle round status, I think the Rams hit a winner here. Great pick. Damn them.

On to round five and safety Jermale Hines, Ohio State. Hines is someone I hadn't seen (re; bothered to look at) prior to the draft but have since. So what do I think of Jermale Hines? I think I resent him for the fact that I wasted a half hour of my life watching him run around not doing a lot.

I'm not saying he's bad. He's not the Mike Person of the safety world. But he doesn't make you jump out of your seat and shout "that's our guy!" either. His tackling, from a technical perspective, is pretty good. His pass coverage is a little random however.

It's like he's trying to look busy, but without knowing what to do. Against the run he often takes bad angles in pursuit and just generally he's kind of a run of the mill, practice squad type of guy. A wasted pick if I'm honest.

The Rams had no pick in round six due to a trade from last September, so it's on to round seven where the Rams ended up with three picks. The first of these went on Baylor cornerback Mikail Baker, who I can honestly say, hand on heart, I hadn't the faintest bloody clue who he was prior to the draft. I do now.

And I now know four things about Baker. He can run pretty fast in a straight line as a return man on special teams. He can run pretty fast in a straight line as a coverage man on special teams. He can tackle better than average for a corner. And his pass coverage is so, so.

You just get that impression that if he ran around with a sign round his neck saying "practice squad", then he wouldn't look out of place in the slightest. There is nothing caught on camera that suggests to me he will defy his seventh round selection and go on to be a pro bowler, or even just a dime package corner.

Maybe the Rams would have better luck with Jabara Williams, LB, from Stephen F. Austin University. I'll throw my hands up right now and say it; where and what the fuck is Stephen F. Austin University? More to the point, do they ever record their games? If so, can you send me one from 2010 to keepingthechainsmoving@live.co.uk  If not, don't sweat it.

That just leaves us with one pick left and that is Jonathan Nelson, safety, Oklahoma. Now apart from having just the most ridiculously wide forehead you've ever seen, I don't get the interest in Nelson. What I saw was pure average. Again it bugs me because I think of all the players who went undrafted, some of whom are really pretty good, and instead they went with Nelson?

Even if a team could argue "well we have a need at safety" ok, you might have. But given the choice between taking another decent young receiver, or a promising young quarterback who could have been developed as a back up/insurance plan to Bradford, or a decent interior offensive linemen, or a crappy safety, surely you have to acknowledge that the crappy safety serves no use?

Maybe I'm being hard on Nelson. He's not a terrible football player. He's just, not a particularly good one either. Boring, non-impact player who barely got a sniff in despite being a pure first teamer. It just... I dunno, it just bugs me when teams take a player like this, who seems to have no discernable contribution to make, when guys like Chase Beeler are sitting out there in the uncertainty of free agency (whenever that starts).

Also, why is the spell checker highlighting "Discernable"? That's how it's spelt! I hate Blogger.

So that's your 2011 Rams draft class. Overall a few good players in there who might help out, but not really the draft I was expecting from the Rams. Having resolved many of their offensive problems last year I could live with them taking one or two offensive players this year, but using three of their first four picks seems dumb to me.

Also, while I do like Greg Salas, I do still have to question why the Rams felt the need to take two more wide receivers on top of their current crop. Maybe a guard or another tackle would have been useful? More to the point, why not invest some of those top picks trying to fix that defense and bring it up to par?

That's really what I was expecting from St. Louis, for them to put together a good defensive draft and make a run for the division title this year. I still think they are in with just as good a shot as anyone, largely thanks to being the only one of the four teams in the NFC West to have a decent QB.

But this was a missed opportunity to make a statement and perhaps put some bums in seats. I think they could have made the job a lot easier with more of a defensive focus. Rams fans will now be crossing their fingers I feel and hoping that their team can make a splash in free agency.

Next up is the NFC North, who all had pretty good drafts, and we start in the windy city with the Chicago Bears.

NFC West Prospects

Time to go and relax on the West Coast for a bit, as we look at the potential future for the NFC West. Starting Alphabetically with: Arizona Cardinals: Ken Whisenhunt has done a tremendous job in Arizona. With Kurt Warner at QB the Cardinals made the Super Bowl in '08. The next year they made it to the playoffs and lost only to the eventual champions. The next year Warner was gone, as was much of the Cardinals linebacking corps. The result was a 2010 season to forget. Poor Ken, undone at the seams by an unenviable personnel situation. Well guess what? It doesn't get much better in 2011. The QB situation is destined for messiness. Aaron Skelton, Derek Anderson and Max Hall are the most likely candidates for a QB competition, but even they are by no means locks for the season ahead. Old Ken might just decide to dump the lot and start from scratch, though Hall did show some promise so he might cling on in there. Anderson however...... much more likely to not be a Cardinal for 2011. Speaking of which, free agency. If you extract the players who are up for restricted and unrestricted free agency then what you're left with is about a 40 man roster, of whom 4 are quarterbacks and 4 are running backs. You have just enough players to scrape an O-line together and just enough receivers, defensive backs, linebackers and D-linemen to field a "team". God help you if you suffer any injuries. Among the names potentially off out the door include restricted free agents Early Doucet and Tim Hightower, along with unrestricted free agents like Steve Breaston, Alan Faneca, Deuce Lutui, Ben Patrick, Alan Branch & Bryan Robinson. Or in other words, a big chunk of some of the decent players that the Cardinals had left. The combination of free agent imports and the draft is going to be a very interesting time for the Cardinals. They pick 5th overall but they could need extra picks way more than they do some critical piece of the puzzle. If they lose all/most of their free agents then they have needs almost everywhere. They'll need a new quarterback. They'll need a few receivers. They'll need offensive linemen (note -men, plural). They'll probably need a new Nose Tackle (though I like young Dan Williams who was a 1st round pick). They'll need to get some impact players at Linebacker. And they'll need about 5 new secondary guys. All in all, if you're a Cardinals fan then 2011 is maybe the year to cut your budget deficit and forget about buying a season ticket. This is not going to be a pretty year. It's going to be messy as the Cardinals try to steer the ship back on course. But have faith. If anyone can fix a broken mess like the 2011 Card's, then it'll be a guy like Ken Whisenhunt. Besides, teams need their supporters more than ever at times like this. That's why you're called a supporter. San Francisco 49ers: By my reckoning, San comes before Seattle and St. At least that's the excuse I'm using. As for the team, the Mike Singletary era is over. It's all change in the staff room. Gone are the emotional speeches backed up by nothing but hot air. Poor Mike could talk a good game, but apparently he couldn't call or organise one. Fingers crossed then for Jim Harbaugh, former coach of the Stanford Cardinal (I wish they would add an "s" to that name). Maybe it's fate. The 49ers have previously hired a former Cardinal(s) Head Coach, who was also quite handy at developing quarterbacks. His name was Bill Walsh and he presided over 3 Super Bowl wins, plus essentially laying all the ground work for numbers 4 and 5. Now it falls to Mr. Harbaugh to try and follow in those immense footsteps. So what does he have to work with? Well it's a mixed bag to be honest. Among some of the names heading out of the door (potentially) are Aubrayo Franklin, Dashon Goldson, Manny Lawson, Jeff Reed, Alex Smith, Troy Smith, Takeo Spikes and Brian Westbrook. That leaves David Carr as the only guaranteed QB to return in 2011 along with a seriously depleted D-line. This then will probably take the major focus of the 49ers in the offseason. The Franchise tag is likely to fall on Franklin once more, keeping him locked up for another year, but that still leaves a lot of empty space around him, Justin Smith and Issac Sopoaga. Oh, and of course, it still leaves the team without a legitimate first string quarterback. If free agency doesn't bring in the answer, then maybe the draft will. The 49ers pick at number 7 and there is good money on it either being used for a QB or a DB. Certainly the 49ers are in a position where the overall quality of the team means they can be a bit more selective with who they want, rather than simply grabbing the best player on offer. As long as the QB question gets fixed, then 2011 promises to be a reasonable year for the 49ers. The playoffs might be a little bit of a stretch, given the rise of St. Louis, but San Francisco has a defense that can compete. All they really need to do is find that spark on offense to match the output of Patrick Willis and co. Seattle Seahawks: Having stunned the world - or at least that part of the world that watches football - the Seahawks are now preparing to build on a season that saw them become the first team with a losing record to win a playoff game. It's just a shame that their free agent list reads more like a grocery list. 24 names. Jordan Babineaux, Raheem Brock, Matt Hasselbeck, Leroy Hill, Sean Locklear, Brandon Mebane, Lawyer Milloy, Chester Pitts, Michael Robinson, Chris Spencer, Brandon Stokley, Leon Washington. The list of names just goes on and on. God only knows where the Seahawks are going in the draft. Seattle picks at 25 but they have so many holes they could be mistaken for Swiss cheese. Unless of course you believe that Charlie Whitehurst is the QB of the future, that two running backs (neither of which is a FB) is ok, that you can get buy on the dodgy O-line that the Seahawks fielded last year, that their D-line doesn't need improvement, that a 3-4 team can afford to only take 5 linebackers into the season and that new corners are not important. If that's the case then fine, but me personally, I'm worried. Well I say worried. About as worried as a 49er fan can be at the demise of the Seahawks. For that is what I foresee, using my magic football crystal ball, that has so far shown about a 55-60% accuracy rating. Honestly, I thought the Seahawks were beyond lucky to make it to the playoffs. Beating the Saints was almost inexplicable. With their core strength depleted for 2011, it looks like they're going to need their 12th man just to keep some of their games close. St. Louis Rams: St. Louis was one of the big surprise packages of 2010. Sure they had improved a little heading into the season, but guided by a rookie QB they were destined to have a rough ride. In the end they exceeded expectations and narrowly missed out on a playoff spot. This year they'll be adjusting to a new offensive coordinator. Josh McDaniels, former Head Coach of the Broncos, steps up to the plate as the man now responsible for the development of Sam Bradford. And while people are bemoaning the fact that McDaniels will be the second coordinator in young Bradfords 2nd year, there are few other people out there that you'd choose over McDaniels to guide a young QB along the path. What's more important is that the Rams free agent list really isn't that bad. It has fewer names on it than most and - importantly - has no names on it that I would consider crucial to the team. That means that the Rams are well placed for a draft in which they'll pick 14th overall. With all their key players returning for 2011, it leaves them open to pick and choose where they go, with tight end, defensive line, defensive back or running back being the more likely candidates for an upgrade. From what I've seen looking at the potential prospects and given the Rams position plus the fact that they're head coach is defense minded, I'd expect them to go Defensive Tackle. Whatever they do, the Rams are poised for one of the better seasons they've had in recent memory, since the glory days of the Greatest Show on Turf. It might not quite reach those heights, but if Bradford continues to develop at the same speed he did last year, then this team can go far.

The desire to stat bust

We start with two bits of news: -- Various news outlets have reported that the St. Louis Rams have hired Josh McDaniels as their new offensive coordinator. McDaniels was fired as the Broncos head coach during the 2010 season and will now oversee the further development of the Rams number one pick QB Sam Bradford, instead of his own first round pick in 2010, Tim Tebow. For all his perceived and/or actual failings as a Head Coach, McDaniels guided and molded the Broncos into a high scoring unit led by QB Kyle Orton. It was the defense that persistently gave the team trouble. The hope is that McDaniels can do the same for St. Louis and the chances are he'll at least take them up one notch from their 2010 showing. -- The Seattle Seahawks have a new Assistant Head Coach and offensive line coach all in one; Tom Cable, the former Head Coach of the Oakland Raiders. Cable has worked previously with famous line coach Alex Gibbs and thus should be able to bring the kind of zone blocking run attack that Pete Carroll was hoping for when he came to Seattle. I like Cable and I wish him all the best in his new role. Of course as a 49ers fan I now have to hope that the defense crashes and burns in spectacular fashion, but there you go. Finally today I have to have a moan. It's not right for me to go more than a few days without a moan, so here we go. Regular readers will know that I'm hardly enamoured with the idea of using statistics to try and break down football, in much the same way as Sabermetrics are used in Baseball. Phrases such as "Win Probability Added" and "Expected Points Added" etc just don't sit well in my vocabulary. There's a mixture of reasons for this, predominantly the fact that after years of study now and plenty of man hours poured into the research, the stats guys seem to have come up with precisely diddly squat when it comes to useful applications to football. The often cited champion of the stats heads, Bill Belichick, has been one of the more active at trying some of the theories espoused by stats heads, and has promptly suffered a series of rather embarrassing gaffs in recent seasons, all of which (naturally) seem to fly under the stats radar. But the biggest problem I've always had is the approach of trying to explain a game that is highly dependent on skill, physical abilities and psychological attitude into a contest of spreadsheets. We're always hearing about how xyz factor should cause certain teams to win more or make certain teams more successful because the numbers add up, and yet we never seem to see the end product of all this speculation, usually because the above factors of skill, physical ability and mental attitude are somehow neglected. The most recent example comes from an article on AdvancedNFL stats.com hosted and run by Brian Burke. Mr. Burke could be considered a leader in this field and has been asked to make various contributions to a number of high profile newspapers, magazines and websites. His articles have been cited by such sites as ProFootballTalk.com and he's been sought out for information and consultation by no less than the mighty ESPN. In other words he's been bloody successful and yes, I am just a little jealous of his success. But I take serious issue with the statements made in the article linked to above, which I shall highlight for you here, because I know how damn lazy some of you can be. Talking of the Green Bay/Atlanta game; "Well, their luck had to run out sometime. One game proves nothing, even a blow-out like this, but it was hilarious to watch ESPN's Sports Reporters Sunday and see the likes of Lupica and Albom struggle to comprehend such an upset. They threw up all the usual fallacious narrative nonsense: momentum, wanting it more, playing under the big lights. Frankly, I'm not sure what all the excuses were because none of it made sense." Basically what appears to be happening here is that Mr. Burke is laughing in the face of the possibility that psychological issues could somehow have an influence on the game. And while the reporters in question probably aren't adverse to the chance to work on their narrative building skills, probably in the hope that one day it will see them kindly in the future when they sit down to right a biography of some famous player/coach/executive, I also believe there is legitimate merit to what they're saying. Psychology plays a factor in sports. Momentum, wanting it more, playing under the big lights. These may sound like esoteric Eastern Martial Arts terms, but they have a genuine place in football. I can recall some fond (and some less fond) memories of my own experience in various team and individual sports over the years, including the impact that emotions and psychology played in those experiences. I remember in my early twenties when I was playing with a group of friends in a purely amateur 6-a-side soccer tournament. We were doing it primarily for fun and for the exercise, so you can imagine our shell shock when by the end of the first 15 minute half of game 1 we were down by 4. The game ended something like 9-0. It had a depressing effect on morale. We didn't score a single goal until the last game of the season, when we won a penalty which yours truly slotted home. Even though we lost that game, just like all the others, the feeling of elation at having finally scored lifted our team and encouraged us to come back for another season, brimming with sadly misplaced hope. Now, I understand that on the scale of importance our team basically represented a cockroach compared to the Leviathan that is the NFL, but that only serves to convince me more of the importance that emotions and psychology play in the league. If we were down in the dumps mid-way through the season having lost all our games up to that point, imagine how much worse it would be if every single loss was broadcast on national television, with the media hanging over you like a pack of wolves after each game just waiting for one sheep to break away from the flock and with the distinct prospect of a loss of employment should the poor run continue. This is why I believe that things like momentum are at times perfectly valid explanations of what we see on the field. As a fan, how many times have you watched your favorite team go down by two scores and suddenly had that sinking feeling. Now apply that feeling to the players on the field. Think of the range of emotions they're experiencing. Anxiety. Apprehension. Outright fear. Fear of losing the game. Fear of having their pride dented. Fear of being embarrassed. Fear of making another critical error that perhaps sinks the team. Are any of these things conducive to creating the required mental approach to play sports? What about wanting it more? Or to be a little more precise; determination and desire. These are powerful tools for a sportsman or sportswoman. One thing that is fairly common across all sports is that as time passes, competitors who are behind and are about to go into an outright downward spiral have an early tendency to display certain common body language, such as drooping of the head and dragging of the feet during breaks in play. Desire is a trait. We can't really measure it. But we can observe it. We see the players on the field who run that little bit harder, who fight and claw for every ball. It's the difference between a ball carrier who regularly steps out of bounds to avoid a hit versus the player who tends to cut back inside and take on a hit in the search for extra yards. We see it in the way some players chase down ball carriers from behind. We see the difference in a desire to make the tackle just by comparing someone like Ray Lewis to Peyton Manning. As for playing under the big lights? Again, I think that can be classed as a fairly legitimate factor worthy of consideration. There's a hell of a difference between a playoff game where it's a "lose and you go home" situation versus a regular season game where a single loss doesn't necessarily break a season. It's a lot of added pressure to cope with and unless you have experience of handling it, it could become a factor that ultimately effects performance on the field. So anyway, that's me done ranting. Hopefully if Mr. Burke takes the time to read this, then in future he'll give the "usual fallacious narrative nonsense" a little more consideration and credit, instead of trying to break everything down into a solvable equation.

Week 7 picks

Right, it's Friday night, which means prediction time. My first set of predictions to actually be heard by the world (or maybe even just one random passer by). No time to waste, let's get down to it: Green Bay @ Cleveland -- I hear D'Qwell Jackson has been placed on injured reserve. That's pretty much it then for Cleveland. Short of some kind of miracle involving Josh Cribbs in the return game and Jamal Lewis on the ground, it's gonna be Green Bay all the way. Despite questions over the Packers run game, when you look at their offense it really does have the makings of something special. Their receivers, in terms of technique, catching and Yards After the Catch (Y.A.C) are among the best in the league. The only trouble they might have is separating the two Rogers; Their QB Aaron Rogers from the Browns Nose Tackle Shaun. I'm backing the Packers. San Francisco @ Houston -- My beloved 49'ers travel to Houston this week. And get mauled. The final unveiling of Michael Crabtree will do little to ease the pain. The 9'ers were trounced by Atlanta before spending last week on a bye. This week they come back and face a team on the up. Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels, Steve Slaton. Four names which will scare the crap out of most D's. Frank Gore. The only name that might really trouble Houston. This one might even turn into a rout. Until San Francisco can learn how to generate some offense, they will always struggle. Note: Michael Crabtree does not constitute generating offense. I'm backing Houston. Damn. San Diego @ Kansas City -- Last year this was a no brainer. This year.... who knows? The vultures are already circling over Norv Turner and The Chargers. Everyone is waiting for Merriman or Tomlinson (who I just found out is ill) to make a mistake so they can swoop in and tear them to shreds. Conversely, everyone in Kansas is getting ready for a big run that will lead Kansas to a Wildcard spot. I think both groups will disappoint and let's be clear on this. Last week the Chiefs beat the Redskins. The REDSKINS. And even then it was a battle of the field goals. Everyone seems to be surprised that Kansas hasn't exploded in some kind of offensive orgy since Todd Haley and Matt Cassel showed up. But truth be told, Haley doesn't have Warner, Fitzgerald and Boldin this season. And Cassel doesn't have Moss or Welker. On top of that, the Chiefs don't have Tony Gonzalez this season either. On the other side, the Chargers do still have Phillip Rivers, Darren Sproles, Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates (& L.T. if he's recovered). They also still have Merriman on D. Ignore him at your peril Kansas, I have a feeling he's looking to shut a few mouths with a big game. I take San Diego for this one. Indianapolis @ St. Louis -- Jesus, this could end up like World War 1; a massacre. The undefeated Colts coming fresh off a bye week against the winless, hopeless, Rams. Manning is simply on fire. He's making Garcon and Collie look like Jerry Rice and Michael Irvin. Steven Jackson of the Rams is ranked 4th among all NFL rushers this season..... and still hasn't found the endzone. Oh dear. Colts, all the way. New England @ Tampa (@ London) -- It's that time again as the International series rolls into Wembley stadium. Last year I was there to watch the Saints and Chargers shoot it out. This year I wont be taking the 50 odd mile trip south west, to watch New England blow the Tampa Bay Buccaneers back to Davey Jones's locker. An believe me, they will. I admire Tampa for trying to build a young(ish) team. Josh Johnson has potential with his mobility and their receiving corp continue to pull amazing catches out of the bag each week. But Brady & Co. have a point to prove still, and they'll doubtless take this opportunity to make it. The big question lingering over this game is why is it even happening. Anyone that believes for a second that this game is about anything other than money is deluded. And while I appreciated the chance to see my first NFL game live in the flesh, I also think it is a waste of time. The teams hate it, and the NFL would sell more shirts if it simply made more deals with the free-to-air channels here in the UK. Anyway, I say New England makes the fouding fathers trip in reverse successfully. Minnesota @ Pittsburgh -- Brett Favre has a photo in his holiday album from when he visited Egypt. If you look carefully in the background, you can just about see the pyramids of Giza being built. But despite his mighty age, the man can still throw. And throw hard. Coupled with a nice group of receivers, a stellar running game, and Jared Allen making hay in opposition backfields, this one has 'Vikings win' written all over it. Except the Steelers are gonna come out on top. Yeah I know, I'm taking the Steelers. My keyboard nearly exploded when it realised what I was typing. How can I possibly take the Steelers? Easy. They play better D and their Yellow and Black attack is on fire. Ben surname-un-spellable is looking good, Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes are getting the job done downfield, and their two headed rushing attack is slicing and dicing people left, right and centre. Add home advantage and it all looks good. Steelers to win. Buffalo @ Carolina -- In their final drive last week, Carolina threw a quick pass to receiver Steve Smith. Other than that, it was all runs as DeAngelo Williams and Johnathan Stewart gashed Tampa Bay, finishing with a touchdown. And that's just how the Panthers roll. Or should roll. Except for someone unknown reason they seem determined to throw the ball whenever the slightest chance rears it's head. And surprise, surprise, Jack Delhomme throws a pick. Or two. Or three. If it wasn't for his five turnovers in last years post season game with Arizona, the Panthers had a good shot at going to, if not winning the Superbowl. It's also worth noting that when Jonathan Stewart gets 14 or more carries, the Panthers are 9-0. This is important because it highlights the benefits of having two backs with contrasting styles, who compliment each other. But, they must be used as a tandem. All this is of course directed at the Tennessee Titans, who seem oblivious to the fact that they have LenDale White on their roster. If the Panthers play to their strengths then they will cream the Bills, who got blasted on the ground last week by the Jets. I think they will. At least I hope they do, because I'm picking them. Panthers for the win. New York (Jets) @ Oakland -- Honestly, I don't want to take either team. Rex Ryan has brought attitude to the Jets D, but not sacks. They get pressure, which helps. But it doesn't stuff drives and force three and outs the way sacks do. Luckily, help is at hand for the Jets. Because JaMarcus Russell has a way of stuffing drives all on his own. Don't be fooled by his performance last week. Russell is not going to be lighting up the scoreboard anytime soon. And to be honest, nor is their run game. Now I know Mark Sanchez is hardly rocking and rolling himself. But he does have better support in Thomas Jones and Leon Washington. As long as Rex and his coaches don't get too excited at the prospect of throwing the ball to their new toy Braylon Edwards, all should be right with the world. And the Jets win. I'm taking 'em. Chicago @ Cincinnati -- Please, please, please, would someone alert NFL commentators and pundits that Matt Forte has not suddenly been drained of all his prowess, like Samson having his hair removed. Forte is fine. His O-line is a different matter. If you watch Chicagos run game carefully, you'll notice that often Forte ends up flat on his back behind the Line Of Scrimmage. This tells us that he's not getting adequate help up front. So, much of the Bears offense now relies on Jay Cutler, Devin Hester and Greg Olsen. I can think of a worse trio in which to vest my hopes of victory. Sadly though, for Bears fans at least, the Bengals have this one wrapped up. Cedrice Benson has had something of a revelation this year. Expect that continue against his old team, nicely supplemented by Palmer and the Bengals pass game. Bengals to win. Probably in the last 10 seconds. Atlanta @ Dallas -- Last week was a breakout game for Cowboys receiver Miles Austin. If Tony Romo can find him and veteran receiver Roy Williams downfield then that opens up opportunities underneath and in the red zone for TE Jason Witten. But more importantly, it'll help keep the safeties off the two headed backfield monster that's just waiting to be unleashed; Marion Barber and Tashard Choice. The two backs are averaging over 5 yards per carry each and have the potential to join the elite of the NFL's one-two punch combos. All they need is the carries. And across the field from them will be a running back tandem that is already establishing itself; The Falcons Michael Turner & Jerious Norwood. This pair of running back beasts has set a tone for the Falcons offense, and the play-action game that works off them has benefitted receiver Roddy White and TE Anthony Gonzalez. With Matt Ryan at the helm the Falcons offense is explosive. The trouble is their D is a little, how do you say, flimsy. In other words, I can see The Cowboys running right over them and picking up the win. This is probably the pick I'm least sure about, but I'm going to back Dallas for this one. New Orleans @ Miami -- God help me for this, but Im gonna back Miami. Yeah, Miami. I can already see the image now of Drew Brees hurling balls all over the field and burying my pick into the ground. But something about the Dolphins tells me that they're gonna steal a win by the smallest of margins. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are something else. Even when Miami doesn't run the Wildcat, those two still burn people for big chunks. And this ball control will force the Saints to do the thing they do pretty darn good, which is throw the football. But that's not how they score. They score on play action. You get a receiver evenly slightly open and sure enough, Brees will find the guy. But if Miami has been studying the film the way I have, hopefully they'll see past it. The Dolphins are the kings so far this season for stopping the run. Hopefully they will treat Pierre Thomas with a bit of respect, but not so much as to get caught with their pants down. I know they can do it. I hope they do it. Because I'm picking them to do it. Arizona @ New York (Giants) -- Toughie. Ahmad Bradshaw is one hell of a running back. Brandon Jacobs has been... inconsistent. Overall the Giants have looked good. But this week, probably against a little twinge of better judgement, I'm backing the Card's. Why? Basically because I think Warner and co. are gonna have a field day with the Giants secondary. And because the Cardinals secondary is gonna have a field day with Eli Manning. Arizona has gradually creeped back into this season after a bad start and I think they may just creep back in a little further by taking a bite out the big apple. So I'm going on a limb to take Arizona. Philadelphia @ Washington -- Hmm, not too sure. There was a time early in this season, for example up to last Sunday morning, when this would have been a no brainer. Eagles all the way. But now, I'm not so sure. The Eagles almost out right refusal to run the ball last week cost them dear. Will they be that stubborn this weak against the 'skins? Who knows. On the other hand, you have a team in Washingotn who are in turmoil. Relieving Jim Zorn of play calling duties will probably not inspire their head coach, who already has that look in his eyes of a man who has been thoroughly beaten down. But, there is hope. The Redskins are built for two things; power runs and play action. That is the real strength of their set up. And maybe a change at the play calling position will lead the Redskins away from the West Coast attack promoted by Zorn and onto more fruitful pastures. With Eagles Linebacker Omar Gaither injured it opens up the chance for big gains by Clinton Portis. Conversely, Eagles QB Donovan McNabb will get little respite this week with Albert Haynesworth lining up at NT for the 'Skins. And with their 3rd ranked pass D, I think maybe the Redskins will have the edge. I'm picking the Redskins to win this one. Christ, did I just say that. So, there we go. Theres some in their that I'm far from 100% sure about, but that's football. Let's wait and see.