The desire to stat bust

We start with two bits of news: -- Various news outlets have reported that the St. Louis Rams have hired Josh McDaniels as their new offensive coordinator. McDaniels was fired as the Broncos head coach during the 2010 season and will now oversee the further development of the Rams number one pick QB Sam Bradford, instead of his own first round pick in 2010, Tim Tebow. For all his perceived and/or actual failings as a Head Coach, McDaniels guided and molded the Broncos into a high scoring unit led by QB Kyle Orton. It was the defense that persistently gave the team trouble. The hope is that McDaniels can do the same for St. Louis and the chances are he'll at least take them up one notch from their 2010 showing. -- The Seattle Seahawks have a new Assistant Head Coach and offensive line coach all in one; Tom Cable, the former Head Coach of the Oakland Raiders. Cable has worked previously with famous line coach Alex Gibbs and thus should be able to bring the kind of zone blocking run attack that Pete Carroll was hoping for when he came to Seattle. I like Cable and I wish him all the best in his new role. Of course as a 49ers fan I now have to hope that the defense crashes and burns in spectacular fashion, but there you go. Finally today I have to have a moan. It's not right for me to go more than a few days without a moan, so here we go. Regular readers will know that I'm hardly enamoured with the idea of using statistics to try and break down football, in much the same way as Sabermetrics are used in Baseball. Phrases such as "Win Probability Added" and "Expected Points Added" etc just don't sit well in my vocabulary. There's a mixture of reasons for this, predominantly the fact that after years of study now and plenty of man hours poured into the research, the stats guys seem to have come up with precisely diddly squat when it comes to useful applications to football. The often cited champion of the stats heads, Bill Belichick, has been one of the more active at trying some of the theories espoused by stats heads, and has promptly suffered a series of rather embarrassing gaffs in recent seasons, all of which (naturally) seem to fly under the stats radar. But the biggest problem I've always had is the approach of trying to explain a game that is highly dependent on skill, physical abilities and psychological attitude into a contest of spreadsheets. We're always hearing about how xyz factor should cause certain teams to win more or make certain teams more successful because the numbers add up, and yet we never seem to see the end product of all this speculation, usually because the above factors of skill, physical ability and mental attitude are somehow neglected. The most recent example comes from an article on AdvancedNFL stats.com hosted and run by Brian Burke. Mr. Burke could be considered a leader in this field and has been asked to make various contributions to a number of high profile newspapers, magazines and websites. His articles have been cited by such sites as ProFootballTalk.com and he's been sought out for information and consultation by no less than the mighty ESPN. In other words he's been bloody successful and yes, I am just a little jealous of his success. But I take serious issue with the statements made in the article linked to above, which I shall highlight for you here, because I know how damn lazy some of you can be. Talking of the Green Bay/Atlanta game; "Well, their luck had to run out sometime. One game proves nothing, even a blow-out like this, but it was hilarious to watch ESPN's Sports Reporters Sunday and see the likes of Lupica and Albom struggle to comprehend such an upset. They threw up all the usual fallacious narrative nonsense: momentum, wanting it more, playing under the big lights. Frankly, I'm not sure what all the excuses were because none of it made sense." Basically what appears to be happening here is that Mr. Burke is laughing in the face of the possibility that psychological issues could somehow have an influence on the game. And while the reporters in question probably aren't adverse to the chance to work on their narrative building skills, probably in the hope that one day it will see them kindly in the future when they sit down to right a biography of some famous player/coach/executive, I also believe there is legitimate merit to what they're saying. Psychology plays a factor in sports. Momentum, wanting it more, playing under the big lights. These may sound like esoteric Eastern Martial Arts terms, but they have a genuine place in football. I can recall some fond (and some less fond) memories of my own experience in various team and individual sports over the years, including the impact that emotions and psychology played in those experiences. I remember in my early twenties when I was playing with a group of friends in a purely amateur 6-a-side soccer tournament. We were doing it primarily for fun and for the exercise, so you can imagine our shell shock when by the end of the first 15 minute half of game 1 we were down by 4. The game ended something like 9-0. It had a depressing effect on morale. We didn't score a single goal until the last game of the season, when we won a penalty which yours truly slotted home. Even though we lost that game, just like all the others, the feeling of elation at having finally scored lifted our team and encouraged us to come back for another season, brimming with sadly misplaced hope. Now, I understand that on the scale of importance our team basically represented a cockroach compared to the Leviathan that is the NFL, but that only serves to convince me more of the importance that emotions and psychology play in the league. If we were down in the dumps mid-way through the season having lost all our games up to that point, imagine how much worse it would be if every single loss was broadcast on national television, with the media hanging over you like a pack of wolves after each game just waiting for one sheep to break away from the flock and with the distinct prospect of a loss of employment should the poor run continue. This is why I believe that things like momentum are at times perfectly valid explanations of what we see on the field. As a fan, how many times have you watched your favorite team go down by two scores and suddenly had that sinking feeling. Now apply that feeling to the players on the field. Think of the range of emotions they're experiencing. Anxiety. Apprehension. Outright fear. Fear of losing the game. Fear of having their pride dented. Fear of being embarrassed. Fear of making another critical error that perhaps sinks the team. Are any of these things conducive to creating the required mental approach to play sports? What about wanting it more? Or to be a little more precise; determination and desire. These are powerful tools for a sportsman or sportswoman. One thing that is fairly common across all sports is that as time passes, competitors who are behind and are about to go into an outright downward spiral have an early tendency to display certain common body language, such as drooping of the head and dragging of the feet during breaks in play. Desire is a trait. We can't really measure it. But we can observe it. We see the players on the field who run that little bit harder, who fight and claw for every ball. It's the difference between a ball carrier who regularly steps out of bounds to avoid a hit versus the player who tends to cut back inside and take on a hit in the search for extra yards. We see it in the way some players chase down ball carriers from behind. We see the difference in a desire to make the tackle just by comparing someone like Ray Lewis to Peyton Manning. As for playing under the big lights? Again, I think that can be classed as a fairly legitimate factor worthy of consideration. There's a hell of a difference between a playoff game where it's a "lose and you go home" situation versus a regular season game where a single loss doesn't necessarily break a season. It's a lot of added pressure to cope with and unless you have experience of handling it, it could become a factor that ultimately effects performance on the field. So anyway, that's me done ranting. Hopefully if Mr. Burke takes the time to read this, then in future he'll give the "usual fallacious narrative nonsense" a little more consideration and credit, instead of trying to break everything down into a solvable equation.

Happy Birthday to me

To start with today, technically it's my birthday now (January 5th) so Happy Birthday to me. Now to truly begin, it occurred to me that the other day I praised Michael Lombardi for the greatly improved quality of his articles on NFL.com, but I never mentioned who I thought was the best, most consistent writer over the course of the year. That award would go to Jason Whitlock of FOXsports.com. Whitlock may not be every body's cup of tea so to speak, but personally I find his articles and attitude very engaging. I like the fact that he doesn't pull any punches and unlike many who write for the major networks, he has no problem blowing up the leagues official line on various subjects, especially when they're trying to curry favour with the fans. So if Whitlock is the best and Lombardi is the most improved, who might be an upcoming face to look out for next year? That would fall to Albert Breer, also of NFL.com. For an example of his work, check out this recent article. Next, coaching news. To go along with the firing's of Mike Singletary, Wade Phillips, Brad Childress & Josh McDaniels, as well as the end of John Fox's tenure in Carolina, we now have the release of Eric Mangini by Cleveland and most recently the surprise (at least to me) firing of Tom Cable by the Raiders. Next in line could be Coach Tony Sporano of the Dolphins, with multiple news outlets suggesting that the Dolphins are extending feelers towards Stanford Head Coach Jim Harbaugh. Apparently Dolphins owner Stephen Ross was present at the Orange Bowl to watch Stanford put down Virginia Tech. If Sporano goes that would make eight teams with new Head Coaches for 2011. What was that we've told for the last month or more by the networks about a lack of coaching changes being made due to CBA uncertainty? Busted. Marvin Lewis of the Bengals will be keeping his spot though, with a two year extension apparently signed. To be honest, the Singletary, Childress and Philips firings I could see coming, but I'm not sure about some of the others. Josh McDaniels had his difficulties but he was putting together quite the offense I thought. Certainly no worse than the Texans under Gary Kubiak, and with more promise for the future in their roster. John Fox leaving was practically a gimme, but Eric Mangini? I know I'm not a huge Mangini fan, which makes this all the more surprising, but I kind of got the impression that in his second year Mangini was just starting to get his head around this whole head coaching thing. His demeanour, the way he spoke in interviews, the changes made to the team. I was shocked that Mangini wasn't allowed to come back for another crack of the whip in 2011. And I never thought I'd say this but.... I think Mangini might be a hot candidate for making a Super Bowl in the 20-teens. There, I said it. But now we really get down to it with Tom Cable. Are you kidding me? Tom Cable?! The same Tom Cable who looked to be turning the corner with the Raiders (finally)? The same Tom Cable who was just starting to figure out where his team was at on offense? The Tom Cable who was getting Jacoby Ford more and more involved? The same Tom Cable who was fashioning a strong ground game around Darren McFadden and Michael Bush? I feel sorry for Tom and I hope he gets a good gig for 2011. He, like Mangini, appeared to have finally found his feet and style as a Head Coach, which is the first step towards big things. Cable could be another hot shot for a Super Bowl coach in the coming 20-teens.