Melting eye balls

Someone remind me what I was supposed to be doing? I can't remember right this second. I'm too busy trying to stop my eyes from melting. Along with my brain. I swear that over the last 3 or 4 days I've watched so many clips of the 2011 draft prospects that I'm actually starting to resent football. If I have to watch another damn post route, or a DE rushing the passer, or some offensive tackle lumbering back into his pass block I'm going to go insane. Not that any of this matters, it's just nice to vent sometimes. Anyway, back to more important matters. Now do you remember a post I wrote back near Christmas about "Super Nickelbacks"? No? Well, first of all cheers for the vote of confidence. Appreciate it. Secondly, here's the link back to it. The reason I bring this up is thanks to the staff off NFL Networks "Playbook" show, who kindly (and I dare say fully unintentionally) made a video a few days ago that basically demonstrates what I was talking about, only with game film to prove the point. Here is the link to that, as NFL.com still refuses to allow the embedding of it's videos on other sites, largely because they're still technologically stuck in the stone age. The bit about William Gay and Charles Woodson at the beginning is what you're looking for. Next, another video from the aforementioned proprietor of ancient tech. This one features Wes Welker wired up at the AFC Pro Bowl practice and wearing a helmet cam. It serves multiple purposes which are of interest to me; 1) It gives fans a better insight into what it's like to be Wes Welker (or indeed any NFL wide out) running pass routes. That's something that the league and football coverage in general could really benefit from, giving fans a "players eye" view of the action, even if it's only on the practice field. It's the use of interesting/innovative footage like this that football broadcasts need to keep their product fresh. Another example is the suspended camera that runs along the middle of the field. Why this angle is only used for replay purposes and not to give us some great in game shots is beyond me. 2) This video, and another similar one featuring Michael Vick, gives us a great insight into just how bad the video editing on NFL Network can be at times. Earlier in 2010 around the time of the combine I went off on a rant several days in a row due to the chronic level of poor editing used during the live broadcasts. Instead of following the player running the drill, the cameras kept cutting away to show the next player jogging up to the start line. I see now that nearly a year later things haven't improved. 3) But of most interest, and where this whole thing was ultimately heading, is listening to Peyton Manning talk to Welker about his route and how he plans to run it, where he wants the ball etc. This gives us a superb insight into who Manning is as a player and helps to explain why he's often tagged as a "coach on the field". It also serves to demonstrate just how important the "time factor" is between a QB and his receivers. More time = more understanding, to the point where Manning and Reggie Wayne sometimes just seem to look at each other a certain way and know what the other is thinking. The same with Brady/Welker.

Poor Bowl

Why? Why in the hell would anyone pay to watch the Pro Bowl? What an utter pile of crap.

Not watching the game. Having a bud.

Damn it!!! You'll find out why in a bit. First, Joe Flacco has spoken out now about the firing of QB coach Jim Zorn. Basically he's not happy and considers the firing an attack on himself, basically along the lines of "if you're firing the QB coach, then there must be a problem with the QB". Which is a fair point. What's even fairer to point out is that Flacco has had a statistically very good year by his standards. He finished 7th for regular season passer rating. Tied at 10th for completion percentage. Tied 9th for yards per pass. Tied 10th for touchdowns. He threw less interceptions than Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. All this behind an O-line that gave up the second most sacks in the league. The Ravens as a team won 12 games this year in the regular season. Only the Falcons and Patriots won more, with the Steelers being the only other team that tied that record. That's 3 teams out of the remaining 31 that finished equal or better. That hardly sounds like a team that is in dire need of a new QB Coach. But at least The Ravens had the courtesy of finishing the season before they began to pull themselves apart at the seams. The Packers are attempting it while headed into the Super Bowl. The fiasco over the team photo is gradually starting to build up to epic proportions. For those not in the know, this basically started with a moan from LB Nick Barnett that players on injured reserve would be left out of the teams official Super Bowl photo. The team said tough. Then TE Jermichael Finley decided to join the argument along with Barnett, and after a while the team relented. Then Head Coach Mike McCarthy said that it was a whole lot of fuss about nothing, that as usual the press had stoked the fire unnecessarily, and that is was really a non-issue for the team. Then Aaron Rodgers did a Rex Ryan by putting his foot in his mouth and saying that the players on IR should rehab with the team instead of down in Arizona, then maybe they would be considered a part of it. He's right, but that's not the point. When your Head Coach says let's be quiet and move on, then do so. Barnett and Finley are still yapping it up on Twitter. All in all, the whole thing is silly. What the Packers should be worrying about, and hoping doesn't happen, is the fact that it could distract the team away from it's bigger mission, namely winning the Super Bowl. Now, back to my opening remark. Basically I have been studiously (learning long words) watching game clips and the like to get a feel for this years rookie class ahead of the 2011 draft. One person that caught my eye was QB Christian Ponder, in particular for his smooth and flowing footwork. My plan was to write a post tonight (this one) extolling the virtues of Mr. Ponder, in the hope that his performance at the Senior Bowl would leave me looking rather smug and incredibly insightful. Except of course that the Senior Bowl was played today and for some inexplicable reason I missed that fact (and subsequently the game). Turns out Ponder was the games MVP and my praise for him would have looked exceptionally far sighted and left me in a sickening state of smugness. Ah well. You'll just have to take my word for it, I think highly of Ponder. But who else? Early candidates for my 2011 rookie watch list (bearing in mind I've got a ton of players still to look at): - Cameron Jordan, DE, - DeMarco Murray, RB, - Drake Nevis, DT, - Gabe Carimi, OT, - Jeff Maehl, WR, - Kellen Moore, QB, - Mike Hartline, QB, - Randall Cobb, WR, - Rodney Hudson, OG, - Ryan Kerrigan, DE, - Jabaal Sheard, DE, - Christian Ponder, QB, - Adrian Clayborn, DE, - DeAndre McDaniel, S, - Mark Herzlich, LB, - Johnny Patrick, CB, - Titus Young, WR, - Prince Amukamara, CB, - Ryan Mallet, QB, As you've probably guessed by now, I've studied various defensive linemen and quarterbacks and been a little slow elsewhere, but it's picking up. I have a bit more free time in the next week to really get cracking with this, although on the downside I can see, peering as I am into my crystal ball, that I'm probably not going to have sufficient time to sit down and watch all the coverage of the 2011 combine. That for me is a huge blow because it was through that coverage that people like Kendrick Lewis along with many others came to shine in 2010. Boo hoo. Anyway. That's your lot for today. Obviously at some point in the coming week I'll be taking a look at the Super Bowl match up, hopefully before it's actually played. I'm also planning on beginning the review of all the 2010 teams and looking ahead to where they might be in 2011. Till next time.... I dunno. Find some way to amuse yourselves. Read a book. Watch a bit of TV. Have a bud.

A Dollar and 68 cents

In today's post; - More back and forth in the Labor dispute, - Jeff Fisher gets the boot... - .... as does Jim Zorn, So we'll start with the labor issue being that March is just around the corner, kind of, and the expiration of the CBA could lead to a loss of football in 2011. But commissioner Roger Goodell has laid down a gauntlet, a challenge if you will, to the heads of the NFLPA to get the deal done... by saying he'll take a pay cut in 2011 if there is a work stoppage. How much of a pay cut? From $10 million to just $1. Now the issue of paying a jackass executive like Goodell $10 million a year is a blog post in it's own. In fact I not so long ago tackled such an issue, albeit briefly (you're telling me you couldn't find someone equally skilled for say $1 million?). But taking a pay cut from such a hefty amount to just a single dollar is quite the promise. Maybe I could grow to like Goodell? (erm... no). So how did the head of the NFLPA DeMaurice Smith respond? By announcing on Twitter that he'll take a pay cut to just 68 cents.... if a deal gets done before the Super Bowl. Wait. What?? That makes no sense. The only incentive I can see in that is the unlikely event of the league rushing to the table to get a deal done just to see the tears in Smiths eyes when he realises he has to man up and take the cut. But being that the league doesn't pay his wages, the players do, I can't see them throwing away their entire position just for a bit of personal gratification. So that only leaves the incentive to Smith to get the job done. Except, if he does do a deal before the Super Bowl then he would have to take a massive pay cut. See what I mean? It makes absolutely no sense at all. If he'd said "if we don't get a deal done by the Super Bowl then I'll take a pay cut", that might have made a bit more sense. But as it stands that statement basically gives him zero reason to strike a bargain early. So the question is now; where the hell is this post leading? Well I'm glad you asked. The point is, this is the man who is negotiating for the players. This is the guy who is facing down the $10 million dollar man (for now) at the bargaining table. A guy who can't even string together a coherent and logical Twitter post. Further proof maybe that some people in this world are being grossly over paid for the services they provide? Maybe. One thing's for sure, if I was a member of the NFLPA I'd be pretty damn nervous right about now. As Kevin Mawae, their President is. On the issue of the 18-game regular season Mawae has now said that he can't see a way to sell that to the players. Remember that any deal that is reached has to be approved by a majority of the players and not many of them are keen to see an 18-game regular season. That's two more games of fast paced, dangerous football they'll have to endure. Just ask the injury racked Packers how they'd have felt about playing another two games before they made it to the play offs. The stupid thing is, the players have a secret weapon up their sleeve when it comes to the issue of the length of the season and it could even be a tool that swings some of that public support back in their direction (and man do they need some support right now). All they have to do is walk up to the negotiating table and throw in a demand that Season Tickets only cover regular season games, with an opt-in for one or more pre-season games at the buyers discretion, and that all pre-season games be reduced in price to a third of normal prices along with free parking for ticket holders and reduced prices for beer and food concessions. That's pretty much guaranteed to at least turn a few heads in the players favour. Not many. But some. Of course the NFLPA hasn't exactly helped itself in trying to win fan support, primarily because there are two major lies that they keep propagating in the vain hope that the fans will put the blinkers on and not see through them. The first is any notion of a lockout. Pretty much every NFL fan in the entire world now knows that the NFLPA holds in its hands the ability to decertify the union and prevent any lockout. If there is one, it's because the NFLPA allowed it to happen. The second is that league will get paid for not playing games. Strictly speaking, as I understand it, the owners will get the money from the TV contracts to tide them over. But having just been paid a big pile of money for producing a product (games) and then having failed to produce that product, the owners will be obliged to pay back every last cent, possibly with interest on top. While that might tide them over in the interim, it will leave them saddled with a big ass debt that needs repaying sooner rather than later. This also glosses over the fact that the league is already losing money, as we speak, and will continue to do so until the moment that it can guarantee that football will be back on. The cause of this loss is sponsorship. Simply put, nobody is going to fork out huge sums of cash to sponsor various elements of the NFL, including coverage on its own network, without there being anything to sponsor. I'm sure there are also a number of clever advertising executives, if such a thing truly exists, around the country right now applying the screw to the NFL, trying to push down the costs of future sponsorship using the "you might not even play a game this year" chip. All in all both sides need to pull their fingers out of their butts, stop throwing turds at each other through the media, and actually sit down and get a deal done. After all, Jeff Fisher needs a team to coach. It just wont be the Titans. Which it's safe to say came as quite a surprise to me. Forgive me for being dumb, but I'm pretty damn sure that Titans owner Bud Adams recently said that he was dumping Vince Young in favour of Fisher? So what happened to that promise? I'm sure more details will come out soon and there is bound to be some personal dispute at the root of this, but for now we're just left staring at the legacy that Fisher left behind. A legacy that is (or rather was) largely based around his being the longest tenure among active Head Coaches. Fisher joined the Titans in 1994, back when they were still called the Houston Oilers. Since then he's produced a Super Bowl appearance and a few AFC Championship showings, but it's been a while now since the Titans actually won a playoff game. The last two season have been particularly hard for Titans fans. Overall Fisher has achieved a reasonably consistent record, especially given the amount of time he's been the head honcho of the Titans. There are certainly plenty of names out there in the coaching world who, if they were holding a candle, wouldn't be able to hold it against Fisher's. On that odd analogous note, let's finish with Jim Zorn. Ah yes, the much maligned Zorn. Previously the Head Coach in Washington, Zorn was fired after what was a frankly rubbish 2009 season. The Ravens saw an opportunity and pounced, picking up Zorn as their new QB coach. But it appears Zorn, QB Joe Flacco and offensive coordinator Cam Cameron can't all get along and play nicely so someone has to go. In this case it's Zorn. As part of the shuffle the Ravens have announced that offensive assistant Craig Van Steeg will now assist with the quarterbacks, and that Cameron will take a much bigger role in their coaching. Not sure how happy Ravens fans will be with this, considering that many were after Cameron's head for the part he and the offense played in Baltimore's post season exit. Unfortunately for them, it looks like Zorn has once again become the scapegoat du jour.

Obama-ball

We start with something absolutely unrelated to football (unless you count the Super Bowl reference in the education section). The State of The Union Address by the President. I'm not even a US citizen and I a) watched the whole thing and b) was inspired by the speech. Maybe it's just the delivery, because man Obama can deliver a speech. But even if he only delivers half of what was promised, that'll be a big step forward for the US. It was a speech that hit all the right spots for me. Shame about the Atlantic Ocean being in the middle I guess. Anyone need a receivers coach? And the fact that I started off the post with that tells you everything you need to know about this week and probably next week as well. As in, it's going to be a loonnnng two weeks to the Super Bowl. Right now the only things worth scratching the surface news wise are that Carson Palmer wants out in Cincinnati and Chad Ochocinco wants back in. Palmer is requesting a trade or else he plans to retire and give up the remainder of his salary. Apparently he's well set financially, which I can fully believe considering he's been on an NFL quarterbacks wage all this time. Will the Bengals give him up? Their stance so far has been to call his bluff and say "ok, retire" but I guess it depends on what kind of deal comes their way. There are plenty of teams out there looking for quarterbacks who may be tempted to part with picks in exchange for a QB they know more about than any rookie and whose expected performance in the NFL they can more reliably predict. But for Gods sake 49ers, don't let it be us! As for Ochocinco, he's considering a new name change.... back to just being plain Chad Johnson. Whether he'll be wearing 85 or not next season is a subordinate concern as to where he'll be playing. The Raiders have been tipped as one possibility as they certainly could use a decent wideout or two (or three) but just about the only thing that seems guaranteed is that he won't be back in a Bengals uniform, not given the ever increasing acrimony between him and head coach Marvin Lewis. The question becomes will he be traded or simply cut? The good money says no team will do the trade when the strong possibility exists of him being let loose in the near future. So with that out of the way, what next? Unless some absolutely amazing news comes to light, it's going to be a sparse week or two me thinks. I'm going to try and catch as much coverage as I can of the Senior Bowl and possibly could use this week to give you some of my early thoughts regarding my 2011 rookie watch list, which probably wont be finalised until July/August time when training camps begin. Also in the works is a plan to start looking back at every team prior to the start of Free Agency and assess their season just gone and what they might need for the season ahead. That includes looking at the list of all their free agents on the block, which is a big list thanks to the whole labor deal last year. I'll have a look at where they might be trying to strengthen in 2011 and just generally making a bunch of speculative assessments. I might even start a new blog on Politics. So keep your dial tuned to this station. Or, I guess, just use the favourites button?

Conference Championship round up

Time to look back at Sunday's games: Green Bay Packers 21 @ Chicago Bears 14 One day Jay Cutler is going to look back on this game and regret not just forcing his way onto the field, even if it meant fighting people off to do it. Because the Internet, the media and much of Chicago has gone into freaking meltdown with Cutler hate. For those who don't know why yet, it's all to do with his knee. As I write this, we still have no idea what precisely is wrong. All that's known is that it's something knee related. Very helpful as you can see. But it's not so much the fact that he injured said knee as the fact that he didn't finish the game. An early appearance for the second half was cut short and Todd Collins came in to replace him. That's when the world blew up. Players current and former have been hitting Twitter and pretty much every other outlet they can to denounce Cutler, questioning his toughness and making a point about big time players playing in big time games, citing numerous examples from footballing lore. Two of the more hilarious (not intentionally) were Maurice Jones-Drew and Deion Sanders. That being the same Jones-Drew who missed his teams last two games of the season through injury when the Jaguars were still in with a shout of winning the division, and the same Deion Sanders who was just as famous for making "business decisions" when it came to tackling as he was for making big plays against the pass. But I digress. Collins threw four passes and didn't complete a single one. Added to Cutlers 6/14 for 80 yards and things did not look good for the Bears as the Packers raced off to 14-0 lead. But then Lovie Smith had seen enough of Collins and rolled out his secret weapon; Caleb Haine!!!! The third year quarterback had probably taken as many snaps with the Bears first team in this past week as Barack Obama. Yet he came and rallied the troops with 13/20 for 153 yards and a TD, as well as helping the Bears to drive for a TD by Chester Taylor. Unfortunately he also threw two interceptions, but his contribution can't be denied. Based on that showing, had he played since snap one you have to feel, no joke, that the Bears probably would have done a lot better. Chicago fans seem to think so to, as an emerging number of fan photos appear with Cutler's jersey's being set on fire. If this was Philadelphia fans doing this, the fans would already be coming under fire for being too harsh and the media to critical, but I guess it's ok in Chicago. Maybe the rule is if the city you live in has a strong connection to the current President then it's all good. I dunno. Anyway, the Packers got the job done, but not without some trials of their own. Aaron Rodgers was an uncharacteristic 17/30 for 244 yards with 2 interceptions. But 7 carries for 39 yards and a TD made a big impact, as did rookie running back James Starks who carried 22 times for 74 yards and a TD. The third came from a B.J. Raji pick 6. Yes, B.J.Raji got an interception... and then ran it back 18 yards for a TD. Other notable defensive performances for the Packers were Cullen Jenkins, who shared a sack with Clay Matthews, as well as recording two tackles for loss and 2 quarterback hits, and also rookie corner Sam Shields who had a sack, 2 interceptions and a forced fumble. The Bears D just couldn't match up. LB Brian Urlacher (who would later jump to Cutlers defense over the injury/toughness situation) recorded the Bears sole sack, along with 2 tackles for loss, a QB hit, an interception and a pass defended. But one man a defense doesn't maketh (or something along those lines). The Bears played well, but their inability to get to Aaron Rodgers or even at times just contain him cost them dearly. In retrospect the Bears put up a good fight. They ended up losing only by seven points with their third string QB on the field. I know people don't like to hear these things and often find its hard to take solace from a championship game loss, but I'm a realist. Given the expectations of this Bears team in week 1, this has been a hell of a positive season for them. They should be optimistic next year, especially as Cutler and co. will have had a full season to assimilate Mike Martz's system. Just as long as they can convince Martz to run the ball a little more in 2011, with Chester Taylor and Matt Forte forming a solid duo. And convince him not to run end around plays on critical third downs. For the Packers it's off to a Super Bowl which they have a solid chance of winning. However as I understand it they're currently the bookmakers favourites to win it all, which I find rather confusing given the team they're up against. Speaking of which. New York Jets 19 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Finally, thank you God!! I respect Rex Ryan for his coaching ability. People tend to think of Ryan as a loudmouth braggart who lacks the fine grasp of tactics that we expect from guys like Belichick. But that's simply wrong. In fact, it couldn't be more wrong. Ryan is probably the most clever and skillful strategist and tactician in the league today, as well as being a very strong technical coach. But I do wish he and his players would shut the f**k up. Well, hopefully he will now as the Jets came up short in the AFC Championship game for the second season running. With the promise of a Super Bowl or bust on the table, it looks like Rex had a pair of Kings and then suddenly pulled out a Jack. All the hype, all the talk etc, all for nothing in 2010. Well, I say nothing. Reaching the AFC Championship two seasons in a row is nothing to be scoffed at. What it tells us is that either the Jets are incredibly talented, or Ryan and his staff just have a knack for squeezing out every last drop from the players. Or they got extremely lucky. I guess we can't really put our finger on any single reason. Like most teams that make it this far, all three of the above is true to varying degrees. Certainly the offense had expended whatever luck it might have previously had. For the entire first half they rustled up just a single field goal. Sanchez finished the game 20/33 for 233 yards and 2 TD's, but for the first half he was a mere 7/15 for 63 yards and having been sacked twice. Thus the Sanchez carousel goes around once more, leaving him in the odd spot of being probably the worst QB to ever win four road playoff games. One more win and he sets a new record. A new all time record for most road wins in the playoffs. How? There was another QB in this game though who's also pretty handy at winning playoff games, that being Ben Roethlisberger. He finished a paltry 10/19 for 133 yards and 2 interceptions, but it mattered little as the Steelers took a 24-3 halftime lead largely off the back of a strong running game and a strong defense, aka - Steeler football. Rashard Mendenhall carried the ball 27 times in all for 121 yards and a TD. Roethlisberger himself added another 21 yards and a TD on 11 carries. But the Jets defense didn't exactly go down without a fight. They collectively picked up 2 sacks, 7 tackles for loss, 2 QB hits, 2 interceptions and 5 passes defended. But the Steelers first half defensive dominance paid dividends. As a group they put up a total game tally of 2 sacks, 4 tackles for loss, 4 QB hits, 4 passes defended and a forced fumble which was returned 19 yards for a TD by CB William Gay. The Jets nearly came back into this one but it was too little, too late for the New Yorkers. I can picture Rodger Goodell now crying into his champagne when it finally sinks in that a) there will be no team from New York, the biggest media consumption market, in the Super Bowl and b) the Steelers, who he seems to hate so much, will be there. And Pittsburgh has earned this. They've played dominating defense for almost the whole season. On offense they've adapted to fit in their rookie wide receivers and they've coped with missing Roethlisberger for the first 4 games. It's been a struggle at times, but credit where it is due, they really have pulled through so far. Personally I consider them the favourites going into Dallas, not the Packers. Which of course now means that we have two weeks to just sit around and stew waiting for the big game to come along. I smell some rest time coming for myself. Of course by rest time I mean that I'm going to spend less time blogging and more of the next two weeks furiously studying game clips of the 2011 draft class. Which now brings me around nicely to my moan for the day. I didn't get to see the East-West Shrine game. I thus then logged onto NFL.com for some highlights, bearing in mind that the NFL network had the coverage. What I found was this sh*t-tastic 49 second clip. I mean seriously? 49 seconds? (actually I lie, it was 42) And I had to watch a 30 second advert just to get to the video. That's ridiculous. It would appear also that a fair number of the commenter's for the video agree too. It just stuns me that the NFL can be so damn stingy with things like this. It's almost like they don't want fans to watch football. If anyone from that network or that site happens to stumble across this blog, perhaps part of the censorship division on the look out for people who disagree with that ass hat Goodell, then for Christ's sake sort your crappy video service out. It might even help you to "grow the game" a little.

There's a subliminal message in there somewhere. I don't know why, I just keep getting this image in my head...

So basically I've been pretty busy and as a result my blog has backed up. Well now I've finally found the time to put pen to paper (or finger to keyboard) and the result is a mammoth post. So, coming up (I should really do this as a TV show); - Bad news for Detroit fans, - Evidence that advertising executives might be f**king over paid, - Understanding the value of Big Ben Roethlisberger, - A follow up on the other days post about momentum/psychology, - Why Falcons coach Mike Smith should trust his own instincts more, - A look ahead at both of the weekends Conference Championship games, It looks like a lot less when put into a list. I can assure you it was a bitch to write, consuming many hours/cups of coffee. On that note, time to unashamedly plug the blog and try to boost pageviews by encouraging all readers to spread the word. Tell your friends. Tell your family. Tell your co-workers. Stick the address on your Facebook page. Kidnap your next door neighbours dog and spray paint the URL on it.... no seriously, don't do that. Put the can down. Let go of the dog. Slowly now (but do put the url on your Facebook). Anyway, dog-knapping aside, let's start with the Lions and that bit of bad news. It's Matthew Stafford again. He's now had surgery again on his throwing shoulder after separating said shoulder twice this past season. Recovery time is estimated in the four month region, which should see Stafford back in action by the time mini camps roll around (providing the labor situation has been resolved). But it's another blow for Stafford and the Lions. Injuries don't help in the first place, but repeated surgeries don't help much either. If you can heal naturally, that's usually the best, but it's not always an option. There's honestly not a lot else that the Lions can do but cross their fingers and hope that it all works out ok. It's shame though. Chances are that the cumulative effect of the injuries and surgeries in such a short span will seriously impede his future development and that means the Lions just potentially blew $41 million guaranteed on a kid who has now played a grand total of 13 games in his two year career. Now, I've long been a believer that in the modern world there are a hell of a lot of people who are over paid for what they bring to the table, including a large number of football players. No more is this the case than in advertising, given that most people are driven nuts by adverts as opposed to listening intently to them. Specifically I want to turn my wagging finger of doom on Internet Advertisers, who seem incapable of adapting to the demands of the medium. Take this post for example, from Mashable.com, circa April '09. Basically predicting the mass rise of pre-video ads on YouTube, what's most interesting to me is the comments section. There are a few of the ever useful "well, they have to make money somehow comments," that don't exactly carry the argument on a lot. But what stands out most are three things; 1) The complaints about the ratio of video length to advert length, 2) The suggested effect this has on viewers, 3) The suggested solutions to the problem, The first one just makes me laugh in mild despair, because people are complaining about having to sit through a 30 second advert just to watch 2 or 3 minutes of video. These people should try watching videos on NFL.com, where a 30 second commercial will be casually slipped in between every other video, even if those videos only happen to last less than the actual advert. Catching up on the game highlights of the games you missed is a nightmare, especially if the combined sound of Steve Mariucci and Deion Sanders forces you to avoid any video labelled "NFL Gameday Highlights". And the autostart function when you first switch to the highlights section = pure, uncapped anger and annoyance. Which brings me to number 2, the effect on viewers. Guess what happens when an advert comes on now? Do I sit and watch it? Hell no!! I hit the rather handy mute button on my keyboard and simply flick to another open tab to find something else to do for 30 seconds. Just at a pure freaking guess, I imagine that probably 95% of the rest of the viewers does the same. One thing we know for certain is that people get driven nuts simply by the mere thought of having to watch a 30 second ad in between two 30 second highlight clips. So why haven't advertisers adapted? Surely all these highly paid ad men are right there at the cutting edge of modern technology trends? Surely they have their target markets by the balls and are skillfully milking them for every last purchase (erm, that was perhaps a poorly chosen analogy)? But no. It would appear not. What's truly interesting then about the comments section of the above mentioned post is that the answer to the problem crops up multiple times; short adverts. 5 seconds. Maybe 10 seconds at a push. Those commenter's who suggest this are hitting the proverbial nail on the proverbial head. This is exactly what the Internet advertising medium needs. Short, sharp adverts that get the point across and/or highlight the brand before the viewer even has time to look away. Think about it for a second. What can you usefully do in five seconds? What about ten? Answer; Jack Sh*t. But 30 seconds? That's more than enough time for me to hit the mute button, open a new tab and piss off to Hotmail quickly to have a look, or to hit up Facebook and see what my friends have been up to lately (like posting the URL of my blog on their profiles. Hint, hint. Nudge. Hint). So this is my rallying cry, my call to all companies that want to get some actual value out of their adverts; pick up the phone. Call your advertising agency. Tell them you want all your Internet video ads cut to 10 seconds or less. And please tell them to specify only one ad per three videos. Remember, it's about quality, not quantity. Grab our attention, don't bore us to death and make us resent you. Also, if you're reading this and happen to be the head of a top marketing agency then may I first praise you for your excellent choice in blogs (did you follow a link from Facebook by any chance?) then highly recommend that you fire anyone in your company who's earning over $50,00o per year while still churning out 30 second ads for your clients online campaigns. But don't fire Big Ben Roethlisberger!! (See that segue? As slick as a bone dry shower mat). I mean it though. I've said before that love or hate Roethlisberger, the guy can flat out play. He's a serious tough guy, he's hard to bring down in the pocket, keeps plays alive long after they should have died, makes good decisions in the critical moments of games and most importantly; he's a leader. Don't believe me? Check out this video from NFL.com (enjoy the advert by the way). What you see is the hidden value of guys like Ben Roethlisberger. Calming people down when they get too excited. Lifting them up when they get down. But perhaps most importantly serving as the coach among the players, helping the staff to reinforce a team first, team focused message. As divisive as they may be in the public arena and among some fans, it's players like Roethlisberger and Hines Ward who have helped the Steelers to seamlessly integrate many of their rookies into the first team, which allows them to keep rolling year after year, despite a fairly equal turnover in personnel when compared to other NFL teams. I also want to take the opportunity to call on another of NFL.com's videos, this one to be precise. This is going to serve two purposes. Firstly, as an addition to the post I did the other day on momentum/psychology etc, I want you to watch the video and pay close attention to the Packers players. Look at their body language and demeanor. Listen to their voices, and pay as much attention to how they're saying things as to what they're actually saying. What we see is a progressive rise in apparent confidence as the game progresses. Maybe it's just me. Maybe I'm one of the few people who are interested by this kind of thing. But what I see is a fairly clear sign of how repeated success builds the psychological momentum for the Packers players to the point where they almost appear to be playing for fun rather than in a stressful divisional round playoff game against a number one seeded team. The other thing that caught my eye (or rather, ear) watching this video was the moment right before half time when Mike Smith calls for a field goal with 10 seconds left on the clock. His experience and knowledge says "go get the three points before the half and bring this one in close". What happens next is a disaster. Although we can't hear who it is, someone obviously says to Smith that they'd like to take another offensive play and get more yards for the field goal shot, to which Smith fatefully (but to my ears reluctantly) agrees. He makes sure to emphasise the point about throwing the ball out of bounds if it's not there and again re-emphasises the need for the field goal, being a veteran enough coach to understand how valuable those three points can be right before the half. Instead he ends up with a pick returned for a TD and instead of going into the tunnel potentially at 17-21, or even failing the field goal attempt 14-21, the Falcons go in facing a 28-14 deficit with their QB having the wind knocked out of his sails somewhat. What is it I've been saying a lot on this blog lately? "Know Thyself" Smith knew. He knew because of almost thirty years of experience as a coach in one role or another. He knew how much that field goal meant and when you see him throw down his gameplan you can just tell that he realises what has just happened, what a hole his team has just found itself in. Watching Tramon Williams run back that pick for a TD Smith must have been thinking "why didn't I just take the field goal?". And he would have been right 10/10. Trust your judgement Mike. And "Know Thyself"! Right, Conference Championship preview time! Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears Only the second time these two have met in the postseason? Really? Well they picked a hell of a year to match up again! Both teams have had their ups and downs and now it's time to settle an old score. At least until next season. Now, outside of their obvious rivalry is the contrasting light in which these two teams were held prior to the season. The Packers were headed for the Super Bowl we all said. The Bears were not. I for one had the Bears pegged for defeat in Week 1. And 2. And 3. I saw them taking an epic nosedive that would have made any WW2 Dauntless pilot sweat with it's acuteness. But they didn't. The Bears instead scratched and clawed and maybe rode their luck a little on their way to the 2010 NFC North title. For that I have to take my hat off to them. That includes Julius Peppers as well. When the Bears splashed out in free agency for Peppers I thought it might have just sealed their fate. My suspicion was that with the cash in the bag, and given the reports about Peppers coming out of Carolina, that he might just roll into work and do enough to keep everyone sweet without really pushing the boundaries. I was wrong. Peppers has been just the tonic for the Bears D-line. Positioned opposite the annoyingly hard to spell Israel Idonije, Peppers has spent more time in the oppositions backfield than some of their own quarterbacks, wreaking havoc along the way. With solid play from the Bears linebacking corps and sufficient play from the secondary, Chicago has turned itself into a contender. Of course the play of Jay Cutler has helped as well. At first it seemed like a lost cause. Cutler struggled and Mike Martz seemed to be determined to roast him over his own personal spit, throwing in pass play after pass play. Cutler was repeatedly dropping back and staring into the teeth of doom as team after team found it's pass rush swarming home. The culmination had to be the "9 sacks in one half" performance against the Giants. But the Bears still found ways to win games. Somehow, I'm still not really sure how, they managed to hang in there and keep fighting. They managed to win games still, even despite Cutler. Then along the way someone presumably pulled Mike Martz to one side and quietly whispered into his ear; "what the f**k are you doing to my QB?". From that point onwards, the Bears offense has undergone a mini-revival. Cutler actually looks like all the hype we've been hearing for the last few years. He throws more accurately now. He makes much, much better decisions. His O-line doesn't have to block for 40 seconds to stop him getting sacked. The Bears even run the ball more now and they're even half decent at it! So having built Chicago up to such levels, the task of beating them now seems insurmountable. Well, not quite. It is going to take a pretty handy performance to pull it off though. Enter then, the Green Bay Packers. If anyone can do it, the Pack can. Can't they? This is the Green Bay Packers who everybody thought would sweep the NFC North and ride to the Super Bowl in a blaze of glory. When I say everyone I of course exclude the more delusional section of the Vikings fan base, but if you can't bash a division rival then who can you bash? Moving on, the Packers ended up not living up to the hyperbole and came into the playoffs as the sixth seed. A season of key injuries and some disappointing results had seemingly hijacked the Packers season at regular points, but they fought back. Still, this was hardly Super Bowl material. Or was it? When they won, they usually won well. When they lost, they usually did so with that sense of "we could have had that one". Thus the Packers may have entered the playoffs as the lowest seed in the NFC, but they were still being treated as a hot tip to make the Super Bowl. What followed were two games that were not the NFC Championship game but were touted as such by many. The Eagles under Mike Vick were seen as probably having the best shot among NFC teams at beating someone like the Steelers or Patriots in the Super Bowl, purely it would seem off the back of Vick's play making ability. Yet they crashed out at the hands of Green Bay. Then came the number one seed Falcons. For the Packers it was "the real" NFC Championship game part II. And they won it. Which finally means that Green Bay can take on Chicago in the NFC Championship game part III ("The Wrath of Kuhn". Or is it "The Search For Starks"?). Or as it's otherwise known; just the proper NFC Championship game. So who will win? I'm not sure. Personally I think it's going to hinge on the Packers pass rush. I have no worries about their offense. They're good enough that they can protect Rodgers and that Rodgers can get the ball out to his excellent receivers. But can the Bears do the same? Can their O-line handle B.J. Raji, Clay Matthews, Charles Woodson coming off the edge etc. I think if the Packers can get a sack or two early on, it'll probably be enough to knock Cutler off his rhythm and set Chicago's offense back to a point from which it can't recover. From the Bears perspective I think they have to find a way to slow down said Packers pass rush. The screen game to Matt Forte is an unheralded weapon that they have up their sleeve. If they can mix that in with a solid dose of running to keep Rodgers, Jennings and co. off the field, they'll be in with a shot. A special teams return or two from Devin Hester wouldn't go amiss either. New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers I don't know about anyone else, but I kind of feel a little deflated this week. Last week we had the latest installment of the Steelers/Ravens rivalry, followed by the main event bout between the brash, trash talking Jets and the calm, surgical precision of the hotly tipped Patriots. This week in comparison has been something of an anticlimax. I'm not sure why though. The AFC Championship game promises to be every bit as tantalising as last weeks offering and probably more so than the NFC game. With the defense orientated Steelers hosting the defense orientated Jets, a true tough guy clash is on the cards. Two hitting teams who love nothing more than to get in your face and turn it into a fight. Or as it's otherwise known; a true football game. Any notion that this will be like the Colts/Saints Super Bowl of last year, a "basketball on grass" type game between two offenses, should be buried right now alongside the Jets game ball from "that" Patriots encounter. Of course this is the perfect way to set up a 45-42 thriller, but somehow I doubt that. Not when Rex Ryan will be dipping deep into his playbook for ways to confuse and contain Ben Roethlisberger. And sure as hell not with Mark Sanchez on the field. Period. I'm sorry, I don't trust Sanchez. I know people bang on about his record in the playoffs, but to counter that I would point out that while Sanchez may sound like a tennis player, he's not. He's a football player. Which means that there are 52 other guys who win every game that he wins and probably have more of a cumulative impact. Which on balance isn't that hard. Sanchez has his moments of brilliance. At times he's unlucky with his receivers dropping passes. But it cannot be denied that a lot of the time Sanchez looks like he'd be more at home in the UFL. Now put that up against probably the premier defense in the NFL this season. Sure the Steelers finished behind the Chargers for total yards conceded, but they topped the list for just about every other category going. You name it and the Steelers were leading the way in it. All season long they've been collecting sacks, tackles for loss, pass break ups and fines like they were the latest collectible treasures of the Western world. Now tell me, on any given snap would you really bet the house on Sanchez versus that D? What about LaDanian Tomlinson? There's been a lot of talk about the fact that a Jets win will finally see Tomlinson reach the big game. But how will he match up against the Steelers front seven? That's not just your average run of the mill rush defense right there. It's not the Bills and it's not the Patriots with their weak front sevens. That's the 2010 Steel Curtain, built for a purpose. Honestly, I can't see it happening, not on a regular basis. That then means that the Jets defense has to come up big. If we're looking at maybe one TD and one or two field goals from the offense, then the defense is going to have to truly earn it's money. "Revis Island" and Antonio Cromartie are going to have to lock down Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown over the top, and Hines Ward underneath. The pass rush is going to have to find it's way home to Big Ben, keeping him tucked up nicely in the pocket and finally corralling him before he has a chance to launch a bomb downfield. In other words this is it. It truly is "put up or shut up" time for Rex Ryan. He's done a great job, much better than most people realise, in somehow bringing his team to two consecutive AFC Championship games. But such an achievement will be somewhat swept under the carpet if he can't push his side over the top this time. It's the price you pay for being so brash and attention hungry. It's fine to go out and make ballsy statements, but at some point you've got to back them up or you just look like an ass. Now is the time for Rex Ryan and the Jets. Either way, it should be a hell of show.

A quick note

... just to show that I'm not dead or in a coma or otherwise indisposed. I'm just scheming out a post or two. Sort of.

The desire to stat bust

We start with two bits of news: -- Various news outlets have reported that the St. Louis Rams have hired Josh McDaniels as their new offensive coordinator. McDaniels was fired as the Broncos head coach during the 2010 season and will now oversee the further development of the Rams number one pick QB Sam Bradford, instead of his own first round pick in 2010, Tim Tebow. For all his perceived and/or actual failings as a Head Coach, McDaniels guided and molded the Broncos into a high scoring unit led by QB Kyle Orton. It was the defense that persistently gave the team trouble. The hope is that McDaniels can do the same for St. Louis and the chances are he'll at least take them up one notch from their 2010 showing. -- The Seattle Seahawks have a new Assistant Head Coach and offensive line coach all in one; Tom Cable, the former Head Coach of the Oakland Raiders. Cable has worked previously with famous line coach Alex Gibbs and thus should be able to bring the kind of zone blocking run attack that Pete Carroll was hoping for when he came to Seattle. I like Cable and I wish him all the best in his new role. Of course as a 49ers fan I now have to hope that the defense crashes and burns in spectacular fashion, but there you go. Finally today I have to have a moan. It's not right for me to go more than a few days without a moan, so here we go. Regular readers will know that I'm hardly enamoured with the idea of using statistics to try and break down football, in much the same way as Sabermetrics are used in Baseball. Phrases such as "Win Probability Added" and "Expected Points Added" etc just don't sit well in my vocabulary. There's a mixture of reasons for this, predominantly the fact that after years of study now and plenty of man hours poured into the research, the stats guys seem to have come up with precisely diddly squat when it comes to useful applications to football. The often cited champion of the stats heads, Bill Belichick, has been one of the more active at trying some of the theories espoused by stats heads, and has promptly suffered a series of rather embarrassing gaffs in recent seasons, all of which (naturally) seem to fly under the stats radar. But the biggest problem I've always had is the approach of trying to explain a game that is highly dependent on skill, physical abilities and psychological attitude into a contest of spreadsheets. We're always hearing about how xyz factor should cause certain teams to win more or make certain teams more successful because the numbers add up, and yet we never seem to see the end product of all this speculation, usually because the above factors of skill, physical ability and mental attitude are somehow neglected. The most recent example comes from an article on AdvancedNFL stats.com hosted and run by Brian Burke. Mr. Burke could be considered a leader in this field and has been asked to make various contributions to a number of high profile newspapers, magazines and websites. His articles have been cited by such sites as ProFootballTalk.com and he's been sought out for information and consultation by no less than the mighty ESPN. In other words he's been bloody successful and yes, I am just a little jealous of his success. But I take serious issue with the statements made in the article linked to above, which I shall highlight for you here, because I know how damn lazy some of you can be. Talking of the Green Bay/Atlanta game; "Well, their luck had to run out sometime. One game proves nothing, even a blow-out like this, but it was hilarious to watch ESPN's Sports Reporters Sunday and see the likes of Lupica and Albom struggle to comprehend such an upset. They threw up all the usual fallacious narrative nonsense: momentum, wanting it more, playing under the big lights. Frankly, I'm not sure what all the excuses were because none of it made sense." Basically what appears to be happening here is that Mr. Burke is laughing in the face of the possibility that psychological issues could somehow have an influence on the game. And while the reporters in question probably aren't adverse to the chance to work on their narrative building skills, probably in the hope that one day it will see them kindly in the future when they sit down to right a biography of some famous player/coach/executive, I also believe there is legitimate merit to what they're saying. Psychology plays a factor in sports. Momentum, wanting it more, playing under the big lights. These may sound like esoteric Eastern Martial Arts terms, but they have a genuine place in football. I can recall some fond (and some less fond) memories of my own experience in various team and individual sports over the years, including the impact that emotions and psychology played in those experiences. I remember in my early twenties when I was playing with a group of friends in a purely amateur 6-a-side soccer tournament. We were doing it primarily for fun and for the exercise, so you can imagine our shell shock when by the end of the first 15 minute half of game 1 we were down by 4. The game ended something like 9-0. It had a depressing effect on morale. We didn't score a single goal until the last game of the season, when we won a penalty which yours truly slotted home. Even though we lost that game, just like all the others, the feeling of elation at having finally scored lifted our team and encouraged us to come back for another season, brimming with sadly misplaced hope. Now, I understand that on the scale of importance our team basically represented a cockroach compared to the Leviathan that is the NFL, but that only serves to convince me more of the importance that emotions and psychology play in the league. If we were down in the dumps mid-way through the season having lost all our games up to that point, imagine how much worse it would be if every single loss was broadcast on national television, with the media hanging over you like a pack of wolves after each game just waiting for one sheep to break away from the flock and with the distinct prospect of a loss of employment should the poor run continue. This is why I believe that things like momentum are at times perfectly valid explanations of what we see on the field. As a fan, how many times have you watched your favorite team go down by two scores and suddenly had that sinking feeling. Now apply that feeling to the players on the field. Think of the range of emotions they're experiencing. Anxiety. Apprehension. Outright fear. Fear of losing the game. Fear of having their pride dented. Fear of being embarrassed. Fear of making another critical error that perhaps sinks the team. Are any of these things conducive to creating the required mental approach to play sports? What about wanting it more? Or to be a little more precise; determination and desire. These are powerful tools for a sportsman or sportswoman. One thing that is fairly common across all sports is that as time passes, competitors who are behind and are about to go into an outright downward spiral have an early tendency to display certain common body language, such as drooping of the head and dragging of the feet during breaks in play. Desire is a trait. We can't really measure it. But we can observe it. We see the players on the field who run that little bit harder, who fight and claw for every ball. It's the difference between a ball carrier who regularly steps out of bounds to avoid a hit versus the player who tends to cut back inside and take on a hit in the search for extra yards. We see it in the way some players chase down ball carriers from behind. We see the difference in a desire to make the tackle just by comparing someone like Ray Lewis to Peyton Manning. As for playing under the big lights? Again, I think that can be classed as a fairly legitimate factor worthy of consideration. There's a hell of a difference between a playoff game where it's a "lose and you go home" situation versus a regular season game where a single loss doesn't necessarily break a season. It's a lot of added pressure to cope with and unless you have experience of handling it, it could become a factor that ultimately effects performance on the field. So anyway, that's me done ranting. Hopefully if Mr. Burke takes the time to read this, then in future he'll give the "usual fallacious narrative nonsense" a little more consideration and credit, instead of trying to break everything down into a solvable equation.

Divisional Round Recap

Seattle Seahawks 24 @ Chicago Bears 35: It was inevitable really. Like I said yesterday, the Bears D is much more accomplished than the Saints. And don't let the scoreline disguise the reality of this game. It was 21-0 at half time. By the time the fourth quarter started it was 28-3. The Seahawks basically spent the first 3 quarters or so punting the ball. On both sides of the ball the Bears took control, but the offense was particularly impressive. Jay Cutler was 15/28 for 274 yards with 2 touchdowns. Tight End Greg Olsen only caught 3 passes, but he converted them into 113 yards and a TD. Matt Forte had 25 carries for 80 yards. Chester Taylor finally turned in a performance to start paying back his free agent fee, with 11 carries for 44 yards and a TD. But it was Cutler who stole the show on the ground as well. 8 carries, 43 yards and 2 TD's. It may not sound like the greatest haul in the world, but the 2 touchdowns are impressive and the other runs helped the Bears to keep drives alive. Cutler simply owned the field whenever he was on it. With that win the Bears progress to the NFC Championship game which will now be hosted at Soldier Field, with the Bears welcoming the Packers for what promises to be a superb showdown. New York Jets 28 @ New England Patriots 21: The Jets did it. They only bloody did it. All the trash talk, all the hype, all the back and forth. Sadly the game wasn't quite what was expected, but entertaining in its own way. For the Jets it was the affirmation of a week (or more) spent ripping on the Patriots. For the Patriots it was an embarrassing put down by the most divisive team in the NFL right now. Tom Brady had a so so game. 29/45 for 299 yards, 2 TD's and 1 INT is actually not bad. All the hype at the minute is that the Jets shut the Patriots offense down and confused Brady to point where he was largely ineffective. Well, call me a traditionalist and a cynic, but I hardly call 29 completed passes for 299 yards being "shutdown". That's not to take away from the fact that at times Brady looked uncharacteristically hesitant and at times a little lost, but he still put out a fair afternoons work. He also had a potential 3rd TD dropped in the end zone. But bizarrely the Jets offense topped the Patriots. I say bizarrely because while the numbers tell us that Mark Sanchez went 16/25 for 194 yards and 3 TD's, the tale of the TV is that the Jets offense spent a large amount of this game stinking it up and then only hitting good plays intermittently. RB Shonne Greene helped to stabilise the ship somewhat with 17 carries for 76 yards and a TD, but it was still probably the least impressive QB performance in a playoff win that I've seen for a while. I don't know. On paper it all looks pretty good. But I just get that sense that Sanchez is in way over his depth. Luckily (for him) the Patriots had practically zero pass rush. They mustered no sacks and not even a QB hit. 4 tackles for a loss was their lot. Do we really think it will be so easy next week against the Steelers? Be honest now? Do we think the Steelers (who were missing Troy Polamalu when the teams met in Week 15) will really be so toothless up front? Don't count on it. The positive of course was the Jets defense. 5 sacks, 7 tackles for loss, 7 QB hits, an interception and 2 forced fumbles. Sedrick Ellis alone accounted for 2 sacks, 2 TFL and 2 QB hits. They may have still given up quite a few yards, but their coverage at times held just enough. Again this is an area I would slightly dispute. The coverage was pretty tight, but the prevailing notion that the Jets "smothered" the Patriots receivers is, if I may become a pretentious Brit from the 1920's era, "Utter tosh and Poppycock". 299 yards in the air, and by NFL standards, some of those receivers were most definitely open. Normally Brady would have found them with ease but here he just looked lost and/or blind at times. Maybe I'm being a little too critical and nit picky of the Jets. The inescapable fact is they've just beaten the Colts and the Patriots in successive weeks. Normally, beating just one of those teams would be worthy of the praise. But both? In consecutive weeks? That means the Jets have now made it to the Championship game two seasons in a row. It's a hell of a statement and something that has to be respected. But if Rex Ryan is going to fulfill the hype that his team is a Super Bowl caliber side, then he still has to go to Heinz Field and do something that not many teams do; beat the Steelers at home. In the playoffs.