So I'm just going to over the results for this week, probably in a little less detail than days of old. My work schedule is already starting to catch up me! Writing schedule is at the end.
So we'll start with the Harbaugh brothers and their contrasting fortunes. Honestly, if John (Baltimore) ends up bald by the end of the season then I won't be surprised because that guy must be pulling his own hair out in private watching the film. Two fumbles from David Reed made a huge difference but the play calling has to be the most annoying thing for John right now. You have Ray Rice, one of the truly elite backs in the NFL right now, coming away from that game with 5 measly carries. Five. Meanwhile Flacco throws the ball 52 times, completes just over half.... for 255 yards? How can you throw 52 times and only pick up 255 yards? I hate the Ravens. And you know what? I think Harbaugh does to.
The other brother, Jim, had a much better day. Christ even I'm starting to believe in the 49ers now, and this after years of bitter cynicism built from watching my team struggle in the NFC West (incidentally, every team in the NFC West won this weekend). Well... I'm starting to believe a little more at least. I'm still trying to decide who is my favourite defensive player from the game. Is it Carlos Rogers who had another two picks? Maybe Justin Smith who batted down a last gasp fourth down pass by Eli Manning? Or perhaps Patrick Willis, who on that same fourth down play committed the most blatant case of defensive holding I think I've ever seen. How he didn't get flagged for that is beyond a mystery. In a way it's a shame because it's a sour way to ruin what was otherwise a great last drive from Manning. Then again, the 49ers won, so I can't complain too much!
Staying in the NFC West, the Cardinals visited the Eagles and my God how the mighty have fallen. Vick busted his ribs on a running play (I believe the latest reports say they're broken), giving people a visible answer as to why coaches in the NFL aren't big fans of having their $10 million per year quarterbacks trying to run the ball too much. John Skelton of the Cardinals certainly isn't a $10 million a year guy, but he overcame four sacks and two interceptions to hit three touchdowns and seal the win. Credit especially has to be given to the Cardinals offensive line and to wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald, both of whom came up good when it mattered the most. Maybe we'll give the Cardinals a bit of love this week and look at some of those plays? The "Dream Team" meanwhile really is as bad as advertised. The Philly press, as expected, wants blood.
On to St. Louis and the Rams squeezed a win over Cleveland, which doesn't say a whole lot about either team. Colt McCoy found himself suffering from Cam Newton Syndrome, where one plays their best football as part of a losing effort. He actually did really well but the Browns inability to convert yards into touchdowns killed them once again (0/4 in the red zone). The Rams got the one score and this time it was enough. Still I'm surprised they couldn't do more. With Steven Jackson at running back and basically all day to throw for Sam Bradford due to the absence of a Browns pass rush, the Rams still only managed one touchdown in their four trips to the red zone. Both sides have a mountain to climb to get back to relevancy.
Which brings us neatly to the Jaguars and Colts. Ah the Colts. Now this is a once mighty team that has fallen. Part of the problem is that the Colts O-line seems to have become dependent over the years on Peyton Manning to get the protection set up right for them. With Painter in, defenses can mess about with their blitz packages and the Colts don't seem to have an answer for it. Maybe if I get time I'll have a look at this as well this week. The end result for Indy was to give up no less than 5 sacks, including 2.5 to Jeremy Mincey alone. Blaine Gabbert hardly stunned once more as the Jaguars quarterback, but then I've been harping on about that for ages now.
And from one rookie quarterback to another as Cam Newton was brought back down to Earth. Sitting in the pocket he held the ball for too long, giving up 5 sacks in the process. The interception was unlucky and you can't really pin it on him, but some errant throws in there didn't help either. Nor did the lack of a Panthers running game. Still, Newton has all kinds of freaky athletic ability. It's actually a ton of fun to watch someone that tall effortlessly cutting behind defenders like he was some 5 foot 9 inch running back. And it was a short running back that made a big difference in this one as Chris Johnson put up 130 yards and finally seemed to be getting back to his old self. The Titans O-line getting its act together played a big part in that, while Matt Hasselbecks quick decision making got the passing game right back where it needed to be. Kind of.
One passing game that was back to full strength and full effect was the Cowboys. Tony Romo absolutely nailed it on Sunday, hitting 23/26 for 270 yards and 3 touchdowns, including two for Laurent Robinson who is having a great year in Dallas. On the ground DeMarco Murrary continued his rise to fame with another 135 yards. The story of the day though was the Cowboys defense that harried Ryan Fitzpatrick and bagged 3 interceptions. It was a torrid day for the Buffalo quarterback and even running back Fred Jackson couldn't save the sinking ship on this occasion, despite going over 100 yards yet again.
Hmm, I need a segue from 'sinking ship'? Ah Washington, you never disappoint! Or should that be 'they always disappoint', at least their fans (and taxpayers)? Rookie Ryan Kerrigan had another hot day on defense, forcing two fumbles with his two sacks, but the Redskins just don't have an offense right now. Rex Grossman threw two interceptions and no touchdowns, while the Redskins running game continues to be non existent without Tim Hightower, largely because the Redskins don't really give it a chance to get going. Miami's defense was also pretty solid, coming up with those two interceptions, including one for Karlos Dansby, who also had a sack and nine tackles. But it was Matt Moore that stole the show for me with some impressive throws to push the ball downfield and set up Reggie Bush for two touchdowns.
On to Bush's old team the Saints who just about snuck past the Falcons, in no small part thanks to what has been a hot talking point all day long. With the game tied at 23 it went to overtime and the Falcons found themselves facing 4th and inches from their own 29 when Head Coach Mike Smith decides to go for it. Instead of a quarterback sneak the Falcons elected to try a run up the gut and Michael Turner was stuffed, turning the ball over. Now a lot of people who dabble in statistics related to football have since come out and said that Smith was right to go for it, but I don't see how. It seems at times like these people just agree with these fourth down decisions for the sake of being contrary and proving how smart they are. Except in this case, as so often in these situations, it proved to be a costly mistake. As for the wider game, Drew Brees went about showing people why he's the class of the NFC South at the quarterback position. Just some unbelievable throws that he made.
The question of who's the class in the AFC North still remains unanswered though. Yeah, the Steelers won this one. But the Bengals were driving near the end until Dalton was picked off and they stuck around all game long, delivering some serious punishment to Ben Roethlisberger who was sacked five times and hit plenty more. Even in defeat I think there's a lot of positives for the Bengals to take out of this game. They look like they're one good free agency/draft away from putting together a highly competitive (re; playoff game winning) team. Dalton (I refuse to call him 'The Red Rifle') still needs some work, but the foundation is definitely there.
Which coincidentally is what we all thought had happened with the Lions, with the drafting of Nick Fairely just being the final piece of icing on the cake that would set the Lions up for a great 2011 season. As the season got going however it became increasingly obvious that all is not what it seems in Detroit. Well, at least to me it was. For a while now I've been using the tag 'over rated' for the Lions and hopefully after their 13-37 butt whuppin' at the hands of the Bears that tag will spread around the interwebs. Because it was a butt whuppin'. 63 passes for Matt Stafford, of which just 33 were completed and 4 were picked off, including two pick sixes. Jay Cutler and Matt Forte had relatively insignificant games, but that didn't matter with the defense dominating the way that it did, adding two sacks and two forced fumbles to their interception tally. A Devin Hester punt return for a touchdown meant that 21 of the Bears 37 points came on returns.
No interceptions this week for Tim Tebow though, thanks in no small part to the fact that his coaches only trusted him to throw 8 passes. I mean that's brilliant. 8 passes? Give the Broncos credit, they're trying to make their tools work the best way that they can and so far it's paying off. A big chunk of that was down to playing the Chiefs, who simply didn't have firepower to take advantage of the Broncos. Matt Cassel barely threw for 25 more yards than Tebow, despite completing 13 passes to Tebows 2. The Broncos D came up with 4 sacks, with 1.5 credited to Von Miller who had another great game. So a win for the Broncos, but ulimately though they're going to need to come up with something for Tebow other than just running the zone read. Might I suggest a) teaching your receivers how to catch the ball and b) try doing something other than just constantly asking Tebow to throw the ball 60 yards downfield. The game footage is there from last season. Try using it.
Speaking of struggling quarterbacks, it's Mark Sanchez! Who actually didn't play all that bad, except for the two interceptions, one of them returned for a touchdown. Oh, and calling a time out near the end of the first half because you didn't have the right play or personnel or whatever, even though there were 20 seconds left on the shot clock which, had he used, would have probably prevented Tom Brady from scoring on the final Patriots drive. Having Andre Carter snapping at his heels for most of the game didn't help either, as Carter went on to rack up 4.5 sacks! On the offensive side the Patriots started out a little shaky but recovered well, helped by the disorganisation of the Jets secondary that routinely didn't have the Patriots receivers covered properly. Brady went over 300 yards with 3 touchdowns, Ron Gronkowski went over 100 yards receiving and caught two touchdowns and hell, even Chad Ochocino had 65 yards on 2 receptions. That's how bad the Jets were.
Not quite as bad as the Buccaneers however, who slotted former Patriot Albert Haynesworth immediately into their starting defensive line up. It didn't help. Actually I lie. He blocked an extra point. It wasn't enough though. The Texans defense shut down Josh Freeman, who completed just 15/33 passes and threw three interceptions, giving up four sacks along the way. Offensively the Texans just stuck to the game plan, reverted to the heavy, two tight end sets, and leant on Arian Foster for 84 yards, another 63 from Ben Tate and even Derrick Ward got a shot against his old team, picking up 36 yards and a touchdown. Matt Schaub was 11/15 for 242 yards and 2 early touchdowns, but that could be the last time the Texans see him in a uniform this season, as he's now out with a fractured foot. Matt Leinart, your spotlight awaits. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com has suggested the Texans call Brett Favre. The worst thing is he wasn't actually joking. It annoys me no end that an idiot like that gets paid for his blog.
And lastly the Monday Night Football clash between the Packers and the Vikings. And you guessed it, the Packers won. Four touchdowns for Aaron Rodgers, which has basically become a standard day at the office for him. It amuses me that people still think that if they give the Packers receivers a free release off the line of scrimmage and don't blitz that they'll be able to cover them down field long enough for the three or four guys up front to get at Rodgers. Every week the Packers make this approach look somewhat foolish. It's almost as bad as the Vikings putting Percy Harvin in the backfield. I guess it makes sense to them, I mean, it's not like Minnesota has a top tier running back or anything...
So that concludes Week 10 of the season. I only had picks for 15 games this week, of which I came up trumps twelve times for a 12-3 week, my second best showing of the season. That takes my season tally to 90-60, which is precisely 60%, so some nice round numbers there.
This week coming I'll remember to include Thursday Night Football as well. Article wise this week, I'm thinking a bit about quarterbacks changing protections at the line of scrimmage and a look at the Cardinals offense from this week against the Eagles.
If you have any suggestions, questions, or just want to vent some anger at somebody dial; keepingthechainsmoving@live.co.uk
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Sunday, November 13, 2011
Week 10 picks
Better late than never as they say. Unless it's a reprieve for a death sentence based on new DNA evidence that proves the person didn't do it. In which case it can almost make it worse. But I digress.
Saints @ Falcons
Nice, easy pick to start with...
My problem is, I'm not sure about the Saints. One week Drew Brees will come out and rip someone apart. The next week they'll start feeding the ball to their three headed rushing attack. Then all of a sudden Brees is throwing incomplete passes and interceptions and the defense is giving up chunks of yards and points like there was no tomorrow.
Conversely I think the Falcons are getting better by the week. They look more stable offensively. They know what they want to do. They're getting the ball to Michael Turner, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez who are making the big plays. If there was one question mark over the Falcons it's the defense. They're not generating the kind of pressure that a defense with those kind of players should.
Ultimately I cant shake the feeling that Atlanta does well against some of the weaker teams in the league, but struggles when they come up against the better sides. On that note, I'm edging towards New Orleans. Saints win.
Titans @ Panthers
Looking around, there's a surprising lack of love for the Titans in this game. Alright, they've had some bad losses to the Steelers and the Texans, but they've won some games along the way, more than the Panthers have at least. Carolina's two wins to date have been against the Jaguars and the Redskins. It's tough. The Panthers run defense has been pretty shoddy, but then the big talking point about the Titans has been the lack of production out of Chris Johnson, though he did seem to pick up a little last week. I think I just prefer the Titans because of the potential match up between Cortland Finnegan and Steve Smith. Smith is good, but I think if anyone can shut him down then Finnegan can. I'm saying Titans win.
Steelers @ Bengals
The Bengals have done well so far. Really well... against the Browns, Bills, Jaguars, Colts, Seahawks and Titans. That's not exactly a laundry list of the best teams in the NFL right now. Conversely the Steelers schedule has included three losses, twice to the Ravens and once to the Texans, and six wins... against the Seahawks, Colts, Titans, Jaguars, Cardinals and Patriots. Not much to choose between them then really.
Andy Dalton has been playing great and the Bengals defense is having a great year. The Steelers have been a bit more spotty. Sometimes they play really well, sometimes they just stink it out. Their pass coverage in particular has struggled this year. Against rookie Bengals receiver A.J. Green that could be problematic. However, I'm still going with Pittsburgh on account of their pass rush and the play of Ben Roethlisberger. Steelers win.
Rams @ Browns
God, some of those poor fans. Rams fans in particular are feeling the pain, just a week after playing the Cardinals. In fairness to the Rams, they've played some really tough teams so far this season, they just struggle like crazy to score points. This week they get Sam Bradford back and combined with Steven Jackson, that instantly gives them more weapons than the Browns. I have to say Rams win.
Bills @ Cowboys
The Bills got undone last week by the Jets while the Cowboys put one over the Seahawks. It's a tale of two teams with contrasting fortunes; the Bills are doing pretty good with a less than all-star cast, while the Cowboys have a number of big names to their credit and yet are really struggling at times. It's an odd match up and not one I fancy picking much. But when push comes to shove I think the Cowboys have a diamond in DeMarco Murray and their defense is probably a bit stronger. So, Cowboys win.
Jaguars @ Colts
Two bad teams collide in a game that is probably unwatchable. Blaine Gabbert vs. Curtis Painter for Gods sake. No thanks. As for who wins, I'm tempted to say the Colts. I think if they can just kick start their defense then they have a chance. But honestly even the players are starting to look like they've bought the whole "suck for Luck" crap. They just don't have an drive about them. I'd have to take the Jaguars win.
Broncos @ Chiefs
I'm gonna do it. I'm gonna do it. I'm gonna back Tebow for at least one more week. In for a penny, in for a pound as they so on these shores. Broncos win.
Redskins @ Dolphins
What is it this week with horrible teams playing each other. Frankly I think the Dolphins are the lesser of two evils. Dolphins win.
Cardinals @ Eagles
The Dream Team has been bad, but not that bad. Surely not. Eagles win.
Texans @ Buccaneers
The Texans are on quite the roll this season. With the loss of Andre Johnson they've just got better, not worse. They run more and they pile on the yardage, putting two 100-yard rushers on the field last week. The defense has markedly improved under Wade Phillips and with Buccaneers Quarterback Josh Freeman misfiring, I think it's safe to say that I fancy a Texans win.
Ravens @ Seahawks
I've been against the Seahawks pretty much all the way. I'm not stopping this week, that's for certain. Ravens win.
Lions @ Bears
This is one of the weekends big match ups, one in which the Lions are heavily touted for victory. But I still think the Lions are grossly over rated and I think the Bears have a really good chance in this one. They have Julius Peppers back and healthy. They have a run game now that is more than equal to most defenses and I honestly think the Bears should be given more attention. That's why I'm picking them for the win. Bears win.
Giants @ 49ers
This for me is a no brainer and I'm going Giants all the way. People have to get over this obsession with San Francisco and Jim Harbaugh. Let's not forget Harbaugh is an offensive coach and if anything the 49ers offense has got worse this year, not better. The defense has improved markedly, thanks in large part to Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio, who used to be a coach with the Ravens under Harbaugh's brother. That guy should be the one getting all the credit. But anyway, as good as the 49ers defense has been the offense has been rubbish and I can't see that getting any better against the Giants. I think Eli Manning has enough weapons left despite some injuries to push his side to victory. Giants win.
Patriots @ Jets
This is probably one of the biggest clashes of the week and there's plenty of speculation surrounding it. The Patriots have been stumbling a little lately while the Jets have been building some momentum, playing much better compared to the first part of the season. Mark Sanchez still isn't quite living up to the "Sanchise" tag, but he at least is getting better at managing the game. The Jets are starting to get some running going to and even the defense has stepped up its game. The key question is really what happens with Wes Welker and how much pressure the Jets can generate on Brady. It worked for the Giants as they forced Brady into a number of mistakes, but then the Jets don't have the pass rushers that the Giants do. I dunno, my heart says that the Jets just can't get after the quarterback as well as they'll need to. I'm going with a Patriots win.
Vikings @ Packers
As much as I like Christian Ponder and as much as I think the Packers are getting a little cocky for their own good, the Vikings secondary is probably going to be outmatched. I'd say Packers win.
So fingers crossed for another 10 win week, or maybe more what with it being a 16 game week, even though I only have picks for 15 of them.
This also might be the last week I do the picks in this manner. I just find it a little time consuming often to sit here and type out what I'm thinking for each game and a lot of the time I just end up repeating comments about teams from the week before, because their situation hasn't changed much. I think I'd prefer to use this time as time off, while making up for it during the week with more of my badly drawn diagrams and cack handed explanations. I'm also considering cutting the recap section for similar reasons, assuming that most of you have seen the games anyway or at the very least know all the results and have seen the numbers. Maybe I'll just focus more on my general thoughts for those games, giving me more time to recharge my batteries and focus on the meat and bones of the blog which is the technical stuff.
We'll see.
Saints @ Falcons
Nice, easy pick to start with...
My problem is, I'm not sure about the Saints. One week Drew Brees will come out and rip someone apart. The next week they'll start feeding the ball to their three headed rushing attack. Then all of a sudden Brees is throwing incomplete passes and interceptions and the defense is giving up chunks of yards and points like there was no tomorrow.
Conversely I think the Falcons are getting better by the week. They look more stable offensively. They know what they want to do. They're getting the ball to Michael Turner, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez who are making the big plays. If there was one question mark over the Falcons it's the defense. They're not generating the kind of pressure that a defense with those kind of players should.
Ultimately I cant shake the feeling that Atlanta does well against some of the weaker teams in the league, but struggles when they come up against the better sides. On that note, I'm edging towards New Orleans. Saints win.
Titans @ Panthers
Looking around, there's a surprising lack of love for the Titans in this game. Alright, they've had some bad losses to the Steelers and the Texans, but they've won some games along the way, more than the Panthers have at least. Carolina's two wins to date have been against the Jaguars and the Redskins. It's tough. The Panthers run defense has been pretty shoddy, but then the big talking point about the Titans has been the lack of production out of Chris Johnson, though he did seem to pick up a little last week. I think I just prefer the Titans because of the potential match up between Cortland Finnegan and Steve Smith. Smith is good, but I think if anyone can shut him down then Finnegan can. I'm saying Titans win.
Steelers @ Bengals
The Bengals have done well so far. Really well... against the Browns, Bills, Jaguars, Colts, Seahawks and Titans. That's not exactly a laundry list of the best teams in the NFL right now. Conversely the Steelers schedule has included three losses, twice to the Ravens and once to the Texans, and six wins... against the Seahawks, Colts, Titans, Jaguars, Cardinals and Patriots. Not much to choose between them then really.
Andy Dalton has been playing great and the Bengals defense is having a great year. The Steelers have been a bit more spotty. Sometimes they play really well, sometimes they just stink it out. Their pass coverage in particular has struggled this year. Against rookie Bengals receiver A.J. Green that could be problematic. However, I'm still going with Pittsburgh on account of their pass rush and the play of Ben Roethlisberger. Steelers win.
Rams @ Browns
God, some of those poor fans. Rams fans in particular are feeling the pain, just a week after playing the Cardinals. In fairness to the Rams, they've played some really tough teams so far this season, they just struggle like crazy to score points. This week they get Sam Bradford back and combined with Steven Jackson, that instantly gives them more weapons than the Browns. I have to say Rams win.
Bills @ Cowboys
The Bills got undone last week by the Jets while the Cowboys put one over the Seahawks. It's a tale of two teams with contrasting fortunes; the Bills are doing pretty good with a less than all-star cast, while the Cowboys have a number of big names to their credit and yet are really struggling at times. It's an odd match up and not one I fancy picking much. But when push comes to shove I think the Cowboys have a diamond in DeMarco Murray and their defense is probably a bit stronger. So, Cowboys win.
Jaguars @ Colts
Two bad teams collide in a game that is probably unwatchable. Blaine Gabbert vs. Curtis Painter for Gods sake. No thanks. As for who wins, I'm tempted to say the Colts. I think if they can just kick start their defense then they have a chance. But honestly even the players are starting to look like they've bought the whole "suck for Luck" crap. They just don't have an drive about them. I'd have to take the Jaguars win.
Broncos @ Chiefs
I'm gonna do it. I'm gonna do it. I'm gonna back Tebow for at least one more week. In for a penny, in for a pound as they so on these shores. Broncos win.
Redskins @ Dolphins
What is it this week with horrible teams playing each other. Frankly I think the Dolphins are the lesser of two evils. Dolphins win.
Cardinals @ Eagles
The Dream Team has been bad, but not that bad. Surely not. Eagles win.
Texans @ Buccaneers
The Texans are on quite the roll this season. With the loss of Andre Johnson they've just got better, not worse. They run more and they pile on the yardage, putting two 100-yard rushers on the field last week. The defense has markedly improved under Wade Phillips and with Buccaneers Quarterback Josh Freeman misfiring, I think it's safe to say that I fancy a Texans win.
Ravens @ Seahawks
I've been against the Seahawks pretty much all the way. I'm not stopping this week, that's for certain. Ravens win.
Lions @ Bears
This is one of the weekends big match ups, one in which the Lions are heavily touted for victory. But I still think the Lions are grossly over rated and I think the Bears have a really good chance in this one. They have Julius Peppers back and healthy. They have a run game now that is more than equal to most defenses and I honestly think the Bears should be given more attention. That's why I'm picking them for the win. Bears win.
Giants @ 49ers
This for me is a no brainer and I'm going Giants all the way. People have to get over this obsession with San Francisco and Jim Harbaugh. Let's not forget Harbaugh is an offensive coach and if anything the 49ers offense has got worse this year, not better. The defense has improved markedly, thanks in large part to Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio, who used to be a coach with the Ravens under Harbaugh's brother. That guy should be the one getting all the credit. But anyway, as good as the 49ers defense has been the offense has been rubbish and I can't see that getting any better against the Giants. I think Eli Manning has enough weapons left despite some injuries to push his side to victory. Giants win.
Patriots @ Jets
This is probably one of the biggest clashes of the week and there's plenty of speculation surrounding it. The Patriots have been stumbling a little lately while the Jets have been building some momentum, playing much better compared to the first part of the season. Mark Sanchez still isn't quite living up to the "Sanchise" tag, but he at least is getting better at managing the game. The Jets are starting to get some running going to and even the defense has stepped up its game. The key question is really what happens with Wes Welker and how much pressure the Jets can generate on Brady. It worked for the Giants as they forced Brady into a number of mistakes, but then the Jets don't have the pass rushers that the Giants do. I dunno, my heart says that the Jets just can't get after the quarterback as well as they'll need to. I'm going with a Patriots win.
Vikings @ Packers
As much as I like Christian Ponder and as much as I think the Packers are getting a little cocky for their own good, the Vikings secondary is probably going to be outmatched. I'd say Packers win.
So fingers crossed for another 10 win week, or maybe more what with it being a 16 game week, even though I only have picks for 15 of them.
This also might be the last week I do the picks in this manner. I just find it a little time consuming often to sit here and type out what I'm thinking for each game and a lot of the time I just end up repeating comments about teams from the week before, because their situation hasn't changed much. I think I'd prefer to use this time as time off, while making up for it during the week with more of my badly drawn diagrams and cack handed explanations. I'm also considering cutting the recap section for similar reasons, assuming that most of you have seen the games anyway or at the very least know all the results and have seen the numbers. Maybe I'll just focus more on my general thoughts for those games, giving me more time to recharge my batteries and focus on the meat and bones of the blog which is the technical stuff.
We'll see.
Friday, November 11, 2011
The New York Giants 2011 defense
When I wrapped up my post last night and went to bed, I couldn't help but think that I'd forgotten something...
Thursday Night Football.
Classic. I completely forgot the Raiders are playing the Chargers, so no pick for that game. Ah well. Nobody likes Thursday Night Football anyway and even less people like the NFL Networks coverage, which is partly related to the fact that the NFL Network covers sporting events just about as badly as a multi-million dollar television network could. If you don't believe me, try watching the NFL combine next year. If you can stomach more than 15 minutes of it once the drills start then good luck to you my friend.
As of right now the Raiders are up 24-17 and frankly I probably would have picked the Chargers so maybe it's a good thing that I forgot it.
Moving on and just a quick hat tip and thank you to LongHornScott, one of the many posters over at Barking Carnival Football. Scott linked to this blog in the comments section of one of his articles, so it's only fair to return the favour, with a link to the article in question. In it, Scott breaks down the offensive drives of the Texas Longhorns from their game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders, reviewing each play and going into great detail about them, which I imagine readers of this blog would be interested in even if not College football fans per se, thanks to the depth of the commentary and the obvious knowledge on display, including a good verbal breakdown of some of the zone plays. Article here.
Next on the agenda is this article from ProFootballTalk.com, which covers comments made by Jets corner Antonio Cromartie ahead of the game against the Patriots this weekend. Specifically this comment;
I'm sure it has nothing to do with the fact that he's only just learnt about the approach. Still at least one hard working, poorly paid, delightfully charming, astute and incredibly modest member of the amateur football blogging community has been harping on about this since the start of the year basically (what do you mean "who?"), specifically laying it out in detail here and here.
Right now that's out of the way; the Giants defense.
Or more to the point, what the Giants defense have been doing this season to evolve, building on the success of their usual four man line from last year and now experimenting with three man fronts, blitzing while in a four man front and even five man defensive lines.
We start with a blitz the Giants ran last week against the Patriots. The Giants went to their three man line and ended up bringing a six man pressure on the Patriots, which resulted in Michael Boley looping around the weak side and stripping the ball from Tom Brady. Technically it was called a sack even though Boley doesn't bring Brady to the ground, but then this is something we're seeing more and more of now, likely as a result of the rules regarding hitting quarterbacks (with teams being extra careful when that quarterback is Brady).
Instead Boley - like many contemporary pass rushers - puts one hand out to push the quarterback in the back (to make sure you don't end up hitting him with your helmet) while using his free hand to swat at the ball when the quarterback cocks his arm. Yes, this is what the NFL has come to now. I've done a diagram below and the link to the original video is here. Just be warned that it's getting close to Christmas now and Kay's Jewellers are on a mission with their 35 second adverts (the clip is only 50 seconds long). I actually find the advert amusing for two reasons; 1) it's obviously aimed at Men yet it's the most cheesy, vomit inducing, overly lovey dovey advert that you could possibly imagine and 2) in this economic climate how many football fans does Kay's think have at least $2,500 to spend on an engagement ring?
For the sake of brevity I've focused solely on the front seven guys. Now at the snap, only six of them blitz - everyone except the safety. But I'm guessing that the safety was supposed to be matched up man to man on one of the tight ends, so when he sees that both have stayed in to pass protect he decides to make himself useful with a delayed blitz. Boley's pass rush is that badly drawn dotted line on the left. On a side note, the video also demonstrates clearly what I've been saying about Brady for a while now - that he has a surprising tendency to lock in on receivers right from the snap. Just watch the video again and watch his head.
Next up is a play the Giants ran against Miami. It was first and ten when the Giants decided to do something that's a relative rarity outside of goal line and short yardage situations; they put 5 men down on the line of scrimmage. Video here and diagram below.
This is actually very reminiscent of the old "46 Bear" front made famous by Buddy Ryan with Chicago many years ago and occasionally used by his two sons Rex and Rob, with the Jets and Cowboys respectively. The only real difference is that the players from the left E to the right T would be shifted across one offensive linemen to the right, and the E on the far right would in fact be a linebacker. In the video you'll see that N (Linval Joseph) manages to beat the center one on one and get into the backfield for the sack.
There's actually another play from the same game that really illustrates the point. It was getting late in the game admittedly so the Giants were able to focus in a little more on the passing game, but still, it shows how far the Giants have come in terms of developing their scheme. The video is here and diagram below.
To try and make sense of the morass of lines I've highlighted the two critical ones in red. Basically the blitz of C and B to the right occupies the running back and the right tackle. Meanwhile N steps forward and pushes the center before dropping off into coverage, as the E on the right scrapes across. This causes the offensive line to do something that all defensive coordinators dream about when they blitz; the Dolphins end up with three men blocking one pass rusher. Both the guards and the center all focus in on the E from the right, allowing the other B (highlighted in red) to cut around the blob of protectors and get into the backfield. He gets a hand on the quarterback (Matt Moore) but Moore escapes... only to be hit by the E looping around, who goes from being triple teamed to being zero teamed as all three Dolphins linemen turn to look right. And people wonder why the Dolphins suck this year?
Now they say three's a charm, so we'll stick with the same game, in fact just a minute or so after the play above, and show a third sack. This time there's going to be a much more conventional four man line, but the Giants are going to show pressure up the middle with six guys and then actually bring five. Video is here with a diagram below.
The key to this play is the Giants threatening the blitz with M who comes right down practically between the two defensive tackles. As the nearest man he becomes a high priority threat, along with the two tackles. As a result, the offensive guards and center will slide across to deal with these three potential rushers. The situation is exacerbated when T on the left drives hard inside. This leaves the blitzing linebacker B one on one with the running back and E to the left (Osi Umenyiora) one on one with the left tackle.
In the end Umenyiora simply trucks his man out of the way, leaving him in a heap and cutting inside to make the sack. But this is a great example of how the Giants are building on the very real threat of their front four linemen, using blitzing linebackers - and the threat of blitzing linebackers - to help them create favourable one on one match ups. The fact that they're occasionally lining up guys like Mathias Kiwanuka as linebackers just makes this approach all the more potent.
So there you go. A look at the 2011 New York Giants defense that you might not have seen yet. Just keep an eye on those linebackers next time you're watching the Giants. And of course, as always, if you like what you see please take a moment to hit the facebook/twitter/google like button, whichever one applies best to you, or just let your friends know via e-mail or something.
Oh! Nearly forgot again. The Raiders/Chargers game has finished now with the score staying the same since I last saw it. It appears Kamerion Wimbley had one of those games that he does now and again where he rips off four sacks in one game. Though an injury to the Chargers left tackle kind of helps explain that one away. Rivers looks like he had another bad game. Even Carson Palmer doesn't appear to have done that great. He was only 14/20, and just watching the highlights it looks like some of those deep passes were a bit errant. He seems to have picked up most of his 299 yards on just a few plays. Denarius Moore's done well, 5 catches for 123 yards and 2 touchdowns. And Michael Bush, 30 carries for 157 yards and a TD, plus another 85 yards through the air.
Tomorrow I'll do my picks then it's a night off for me before Week 10's games. See you soon.
Thursday Night Football.
Classic. I completely forgot the Raiders are playing the Chargers, so no pick for that game. Ah well. Nobody likes Thursday Night Football anyway and even less people like the NFL Networks coverage, which is partly related to the fact that the NFL Network covers sporting events just about as badly as a multi-million dollar television network could. If you don't believe me, try watching the NFL combine next year. If you can stomach more than 15 minutes of it once the drills start then good luck to you my friend.
As of right now the Raiders are up 24-17 and frankly I probably would have picked the Chargers so maybe it's a good thing that I forgot it.
Moving on and just a quick hat tip and thank you to LongHornScott, one of the many posters over at Barking Carnival Football. Scott linked to this blog in the comments section of one of his articles, so it's only fair to return the favour, with a link to the article in question. In it, Scott breaks down the offensive drives of the Texas Longhorns from their game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders, reviewing each play and going into great detail about them, which I imagine readers of this blog would be interested in even if not College football fans per se, thanks to the depth of the commentary and the obvious knowledge on display, including a good verbal breakdown of some of the zone plays. Article here.
Next on the agenda is this article from ProFootballTalk.com, which covers comments made by Jets corner Antonio Cromartie ahead of the game against the Patriots this weekend. Specifically this comment;
“Every team is starting to notice that if you bang him around, their timing is knocked off,” Cromartie said via ESPNewYork.comGregg Rosenthal then mockingly snorts at Cromarties suggestion, saying that this is hardly a state secret and has been the preferred approach to stopping Welker for years. Which of course leaves the nagging question; if this approach to stopping Welker is such widespread knowledge then why a) has every team since week one not been using it, and b) why hasn't Rosenthal been hammering this point home since week one, laughing at peoples feeble attempts to cover Welker?
I'm sure it has nothing to do with the fact that he's only just learnt about the approach. Still at least one hard working, poorly paid, delightfully charming, astute and incredibly modest member of the amateur football blogging community has been harping on about this since the start of the year basically (what do you mean "who?"), specifically laying it out in detail here and here.
Right now that's out of the way; the Giants defense.
Or more to the point, what the Giants defense have been doing this season to evolve, building on the success of their usual four man line from last year and now experimenting with three man fronts, blitzing while in a four man front and even five man defensive lines.
We start with a blitz the Giants ran last week against the Patriots. The Giants went to their three man line and ended up bringing a six man pressure on the Patriots, which resulted in Michael Boley looping around the weak side and stripping the ball from Tom Brady. Technically it was called a sack even though Boley doesn't bring Brady to the ground, but then this is something we're seeing more and more of now, likely as a result of the rules regarding hitting quarterbacks (with teams being extra careful when that quarterback is Brady).
Instead Boley - like many contemporary pass rushers - puts one hand out to push the quarterback in the back (to make sure you don't end up hitting him with your helmet) while using his free hand to swat at the ball when the quarterback cocks his arm. Yes, this is what the NFL has come to now. I've done a diagram below and the link to the original video is here. Just be warned that it's getting close to Christmas now and Kay's Jewellers are on a mission with their 35 second adverts (the clip is only 50 seconds long). I actually find the advert amusing for two reasons; 1) it's obviously aimed at Men yet it's the most cheesy, vomit inducing, overly lovey dovey advert that you could possibly imagine and 2) in this economic climate how many football fans does Kay's think have at least $2,500 to spend on an engagement ring?
Next up is a play the Giants ran against Miami. It was first and ten when the Giants decided to do something that's a relative rarity outside of goal line and short yardage situations; they put 5 men down on the line of scrimmage. Video here and diagram below.
There's actually another play from the same game that really illustrates the point. It was getting late in the game admittedly so the Giants were able to focus in a little more on the passing game, but still, it shows how far the Giants have come in terms of developing their scheme. The video is here and diagram below.
Now they say three's a charm, so we'll stick with the same game, in fact just a minute or so after the play above, and show a third sack. This time there's going to be a much more conventional four man line, but the Giants are going to show pressure up the middle with six guys and then actually bring five. Video is here with a diagram below.
In the end Umenyiora simply trucks his man out of the way, leaving him in a heap and cutting inside to make the sack. But this is a great example of how the Giants are building on the very real threat of their front four linemen, using blitzing linebackers - and the threat of blitzing linebackers - to help them create favourable one on one match ups. The fact that they're occasionally lining up guys like Mathias Kiwanuka as linebackers just makes this approach all the more potent.
So there you go. A look at the 2011 New York Giants defense that you might not have seen yet. Just keep an eye on those linebackers next time you're watching the Giants. And of course, as always, if you like what you see please take a moment to hit the facebook/twitter/google like button, whichever one applies best to you, or just let your friends know via e-mail or something.
Oh! Nearly forgot again. The Raiders/Chargers game has finished now with the score staying the same since I last saw it. It appears Kamerion Wimbley had one of those games that he does now and again where he rips off four sacks in one game. Though an injury to the Chargers left tackle kind of helps explain that one away. Rivers looks like he had another bad game. Even Carson Palmer doesn't appear to have done that great. He was only 14/20, and just watching the highlights it looks like some of those deep passes were a bit errant. He seems to have picked up most of his 299 yards on just a few plays. Denarius Moore's done well, 5 catches for 123 yards and 2 touchdowns. And Michael Bush, 30 carries for 157 yards and a TD, plus another 85 yards through the air.
Tomorrow I'll do my picks then it's a night off for me before Week 10's games. See you soon.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Sod it
So I got half way (and two hours) through writing a post, then read it back to myself and realised "this is pointless".
I was going to write an article about a post I'd seen on a coaching forum, where people basically ran down the NFL and said some of the stupidest and inane things you could possibly imagine about offenses in the NFL, while concurrently trying to profess that College football is somehow a superior art, but breaking down the forum posts in minute detail was serving to be a pain and not quite putting across what I want to say on the matter.
On that note I'm going to take a different tack and try to make the point that;
1) College football is predisposed to a greater degree of offensive variety,
2) That the variety in College football is somewhat over stated,
3) That NFL offense's are actually a lot more diverse than some people seem to realise,
Number one is answered simply; the Football Bowl Subdivision alone is host to 120 teams. That's nearly four times as many teams as the NFL, leaving open the likely hood that at least some of those teams will hire coaches with offensive or defensive systems that vary widely from those used elsewhere. That variation on one side of the ball often prompts an adjustment by a regular opponent, who in turn creates a "new" offense or defense to counter their oddball opponent while also finding a way to match up against more "regular" teams. The fact that college teams also have widely different personnel levels (quality wise) across the broad spectrum of their teams only makes it more likely that somewhere in there someone will run a contrary scheme to the "norm" to cover up weaknesses/expose strengths.
Number two is also relatively self explanatory. College football is often seen as the font of all things creative and diverse in football, whereas the NFL is seen as a "copy cat" or "grab bag" league. I have a hard time then understanding why so many teams in college have switched to "spread" offenses (for the purpose of this article, defined as being in the shotgun with three or more wide receivers) since the success of teams like Florida and others.
Why do we see so many Pistol offenses lately, which is the latest craze sweeping college football? How many of these unique and diverse teams run zone style runs? How many run the option, itself a play that is as old as the hills and can hardly be described as being particularly innovative? For a while the hype was all about the Zone read (a play the Broncos hammered last Sunday), but even that is just another type of option football.
I don't know everything about football (I'll die before that's ever possible) but I know enough to know that a lot of offenses (and defenses) in college football are running schemes that are very, very similar to one another and that the diversity and originality of schemes is being somewhat over stated by some.
Thirdly, the NFL.
It's a fairly common assumption - it would appear - among high school coaches to believe that every NFL team runs basically the same core group of plays and little else. Now certainly the proliferation of teams that run a lot of inside and outside zone runs might give you that impression, but NFL offenses are actually a lot more diverse than people believe.
I read one comment on the forum post mentioned at the start about how nobody in the NFL runs trap plays anymore. You know what I mean, like the trap plays that the Eagles and Patriots often run. Or the Wham play used by the 49ers that is effectively a form of trap.
The truth is there is only so many ways to run the football. With five down linemen and a tight end, that gives you seven "gaps" (nine if you must insist on calling very wide runs extra gaps) that you can run through and only so many players available to block through them, and only so many ways that you can get said players to the hole. Logically speaking of course.
Thus the amount of runs that a team could theoretically run is already capped. Add to that the fact that some runs have proven over the years to be more effective than others and you have your answer. I think sometimes people expect NFL coaches to be outlandish and try new things just for the sake of being different, or that somehow the pressure of losing your job is not sufficient reason for a coach to be a little more conservative and stick to what he knows best instead of implementing the latest Super High Speed Spread 'Em Out To Run Turbo No Huddle Ultra Screen Offense. TM.
Even then, there is actually a degree of individuality about NFL offense's, you just have to look for it. Take the Steelers for example.
The Steelers offense is based around the skills of Ben Roethlisberger. They run a lot of empty sets and sets with just one back for whom you can normally see Ben highlighting a man to check. They're counting on his ability to evade pressure, stay on his feet and run to make plays. The offense seldom runs short routes because it makes more sense to let the players get down field, even though that takes more time, due to Roethlisberger's movement skills.
Mike Martz runs a similar system in Chicago, though not due to any inherent evasion skills possessed by Jay Cutler, but more to do with this being how Martz has always run his schemes. Until this season, when it appears Lovie Smith has had a quiet word in his ear, Martz had been famous for trying to get the maximum number or receivers out into routes, with very little concern for pass protection. The fact that these routes are often deep plays and take a long time to develop helps explain why Jay Cutler got killed in the pocket so often.
But now the Bears offense is almost unrecognisable as being a Martz offense. They run the ball a lot more, using predominantly power style running plays with one or more pulling offensive linemen. They use the backs much more for pass protection, often using play action as well, while sending just two or three receivers down field in the hope that if they can keep Cutler upright long enough, he'll be able to hit one of those open guys.
Then we have teams like the Saints and Packers, who admittedly do run fairly similar offenses, that involve a combination of wide formations for passing and more compacted "I" formations for running and play action. Both offenses have plenty of decent receivers to get the ball to and run a lot of short and medium depth passing plays, preferring to pick people apart rather than just gash them with lots of long bombs, although the yards after catch of their receivers often turn 10 yard hooks into much bigger plays.
Then we have the Texans, who as I've pointed out before are running a lot of two back, two tight end, formations, or single tight end formations but with one of the receivers brought in close to the formation. It's almost like they're spending half their time in goal line type setups and having a lot of success as a result, running plenty of zone rushing plays and the subsequent play action that builds off of that.
Then you have the Dolphins, who under previous offensive coordinator Dan Henning ran a lot of two back, split back formations, were quite run heavy with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, but have now reverted to a somewhat more open and "spread" style of play, emphasising the pass more than the run and largely dumping the wildcat look that had served them usefully before.
Then we have the Patriots who, to the best of my knowledge, still run a similar scheme to the one they did around the time of their last Super Bowl appearance. If this is indeed the case then it's common for them to split their pass plays up into separate combinations, with two receivers on one side running one route combo, while the two on the other side will run a different combo, allowing the Patriots to build in a degree of risk mitigation by having a combo to beat cover 2 and a combo to beat cover 3 (for example) built into the same play.
The Colts, from what I've seen, do the same. With Manning at least! Well, almost the same. I've seen an old Colts playbook/game plan from the early 2000's where it appeared that the field was split in half, with two receivers and a single back running a combo play to one side, while the flanker on the opposite side had his route "tagged", that is to say that he was told to run a specific route, with the man inside of him running a pre-set route designed to compliment whatever the outside receiver was doing. The system sounds similar to the one described for the Patriots, but from what I've seen the Colts system is slightly more flexible (and thus complicated). The Colts also use a lot of screens in lieu of a strong running game.
And if the Bears are becoming famous for running outside the tackles then the Falcons must be famous for running inside them. The Falcons offense often features Michael Turner attacking the linebackers up the middle, not least because on Play-action this makes the linebackers hesitate before dropping back, creating extra breathing room over the middle for tight end Tony Gonzalez.
Meawhile in Baltimore the Ravens are making much more use of two tight end sets now to facilitate the use of their two young tight ends Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson. In addition they same more keen now to throw the ball deep, trying to use the speed of Torrey Smith (when he actually catches the ball).
The Cardinals? Well they have no offense... ba doom tish! Back in the Kurt Warner days the Cardinals used to play things quite sneaky, sending multiple receivers down field, but often having Larry Fitzgerald or Anquan Boldin to run a 5 yard drag route underneath to exploit the space created. They also heavily leaned on screen passes to Boldin, especially down in the red zone.
Talking of screen passes, this used to be a speciality of Andy Reid when he had Brian Westbrook, but now not so much. He's also started to drift away somewhat from his heavy use of trap runs up the middle, but still finds time to sneak a few in. The introduction of Michael Vick has made the most influential change on Reid's offense, with a switch away from heavier protections that supported down field passes to the likes of DeSean Jackson, and now leans a little more towards multi receiver, "spread" type sets, permitting Vick more opportunities to run up the vacated space in the middle.
The Panthers have also done the same with Cam Newton, shifting away from an offense that used to sit often in the "I" formation and run a lot with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, to operating more out of the gun which is more familiar to Newton, and again using more of a "spread" look to give him more room for running up the middle.
We'll stop there, but this tour could continue around basically the entire NFL. As generic as the teams might sometimes look, as they steal ideas and plays from one another, just keep in mind that all is not what it seems. Lots of teams have different approaches, even if the subtleties of those approaches is not easy to discern at first.
I was going to write an article about a post I'd seen on a coaching forum, where people basically ran down the NFL and said some of the stupidest and inane things you could possibly imagine about offenses in the NFL, while concurrently trying to profess that College football is somehow a superior art, but breaking down the forum posts in minute detail was serving to be a pain and not quite putting across what I want to say on the matter.
On that note I'm going to take a different tack and try to make the point that;
1) College football is predisposed to a greater degree of offensive variety,
2) That the variety in College football is somewhat over stated,
3) That NFL offense's are actually a lot more diverse than some people seem to realise,
Number one is answered simply; the Football Bowl Subdivision alone is host to 120 teams. That's nearly four times as many teams as the NFL, leaving open the likely hood that at least some of those teams will hire coaches with offensive or defensive systems that vary widely from those used elsewhere. That variation on one side of the ball often prompts an adjustment by a regular opponent, who in turn creates a "new" offense or defense to counter their oddball opponent while also finding a way to match up against more "regular" teams. The fact that college teams also have widely different personnel levels (quality wise) across the broad spectrum of their teams only makes it more likely that somewhere in there someone will run a contrary scheme to the "norm" to cover up weaknesses/expose strengths.
Number two is also relatively self explanatory. College football is often seen as the font of all things creative and diverse in football, whereas the NFL is seen as a "copy cat" or "grab bag" league. I have a hard time then understanding why so many teams in college have switched to "spread" offenses (for the purpose of this article, defined as being in the shotgun with three or more wide receivers) since the success of teams like Florida and others.
Why do we see so many Pistol offenses lately, which is the latest craze sweeping college football? How many of these unique and diverse teams run zone style runs? How many run the option, itself a play that is as old as the hills and can hardly be described as being particularly innovative? For a while the hype was all about the Zone read (a play the Broncos hammered last Sunday), but even that is just another type of option football.
I don't know everything about football (I'll die before that's ever possible) but I know enough to know that a lot of offenses (and defenses) in college football are running schemes that are very, very similar to one another and that the diversity and originality of schemes is being somewhat over stated by some.
Thirdly, the NFL.
It's a fairly common assumption - it would appear - among high school coaches to believe that every NFL team runs basically the same core group of plays and little else. Now certainly the proliferation of teams that run a lot of inside and outside zone runs might give you that impression, but NFL offenses are actually a lot more diverse than people believe.
I read one comment on the forum post mentioned at the start about how nobody in the NFL runs trap plays anymore. You know what I mean, like the trap plays that the Eagles and Patriots often run. Or the Wham play used by the 49ers that is effectively a form of trap.
The truth is there is only so many ways to run the football. With five down linemen and a tight end, that gives you seven "gaps" (nine if you must insist on calling very wide runs extra gaps) that you can run through and only so many players available to block through them, and only so many ways that you can get said players to the hole. Logically speaking of course.
Thus the amount of runs that a team could theoretically run is already capped. Add to that the fact that some runs have proven over the years to be more effective than others and you have your answer. I think sometimes people expect NFL coaches to be outlandish and try new things just for the sake of being different, or that somehow the pressure of losing your job is not sufficient reason for a coach to be a little more conservative and stick to what he knows best instead of implementing the latest Super High Speed Spread 'Em Out To Run Turbo No Huddle Ultra Screen Offense. TM.
Even then, there is actually a degree of individuality about NFL offense's, you just have to look for it. Take the Steelers for example.
The Steelers offense is based around the skills of Ben Roethlisberger. They run a lot of empty sets and sets with just one back for whom you can normally see Ben highlighting a man to check. They're counting on his ability to evade pressure, stay on his feet and run to make plays. The offense seldom runs short routes because it makes more sense to let the players get down field, even though that takes more time, due to Roethlisberger's movement skills.
Mike Martz runs a similar system in Chicago, though not due to any inherent evasion skills possessed by Jay Cutler, but more to do with this being how Martz has always run his schemes. Until this season, when it appears Lovie Smith has had a quiet word in his ear, Martz had been famous for trying to get the maximum number or receivers out into routes, with very little concern for pass protection. The fact that these routes are often deep plays and take a long time to develop helps explain why Jay Cutler got killed in the pocket so often.
But now the Bears offense is almost unrecognisable as being a Martz offense. They run the ball a lot more, using predominantly power style running plays with one or more pulling offensive linemen. They use the backs much more for pass protection, often using play action as well, while sending just two or three receivers down field in the hope that if they can keep Cutler upright long enough, he'll be able to hit one of those open guys.
Then we have teams like the Saints and Packers, who admittedly do run fairly similar offenses, that involve a combination of wide formations for passing and more compacted "I" formations for running and play action. Both offenses have plenty of decent receivers to get the ball to and run a lot of short and medium depth passing plays, preferring to pick people apart rather than just gash them with lots of long bombs, although the yards after catch of their receivers often turn 10 yard hooks into much bigger plays.
Then we have the Texans, who as I've pointed out before are running a lot of two back, two tight end, formations, or single tight end formations but with one of the receivers brought in close to the formation. It's almost like they're spending half their time in goal line type setups and having a lot of success as a result, running plenty of zone rushing plays and the subsequent play action that builds off of that.
Then you have the Dolphins, who under previous offensive coordinator Dan Henning ran a lot of two back, split back formations, were quite run heavy with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, but have now reverted to a somewhat more open and "spread" style of play, emphasising the pass more than the run and largely dumping the wildcat look that had served them usefully before.
Then we have the Patriots who, to the best of my knowledge, still run a similar scheme to the one they did around the time of their last Super Bowl appearance. If this is indeed the case then it's common for them to split their pass plays up into separate combinations, with two receivers on one side running one route combo, while the two on the other side will run a different combo, allowing the Patriots to build in a degree of risk mitigation by having a combo to beat cover 2 and a combo to beat cover 3 (for example) built into the same play.
The Colts, from what I've seen, do the same. With Manning at least! Well, almost the same. I've seen an old Colts playbook/game plan from the early 2000's where it appeared that the field was split in half, with two receivers and a single back running a combo play to one side, while the flanker on the opposite side had his route "tagged", that is to say that he was told to run a specific route, with the man inside of him running a pre-set route designed to compliment whatever the outside receiver was doing. The system sounds similar to the one described for the Patriots, but from what I've seen the Colts system is slightly more flexible (and thus complicated). The Colts also use a lot of screens in lieu of a strong running game.
And if the Bears are becoming famous for running outside the tackles then the Falcons must be famous for running inside them. The Falcons offense often features Michael Turner attacking the linebackers up the middle, not least because on Play-action this makes the linebackers hesitate before dropping back, creating extra breathing room over the middle for tight end Tony Gonzalez.
Meawhile in Baltimore the Ravens are making much more use of two tight end sets now to facilitate the use of their two young tight ends Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson. In addition they same more keen now to throw the ball deep, trying to use the speed of Torrey Smith (when he actually catches the ball).
The Cardinals? Well they have no offense... ba doom tish! Back in the Kurt Warner days the Cardinals used to play things quite sneaky, sending multiple receivers down field, but often having Larry Fitzgerald or Anquan Boldin to run a 5 yard drag route underneath to exploit the space created. They also heavily leaned on screen passes to Boldin, especially down in the red zone.
Talking of screen passes, this used to be a speciality of Andy Reid when he had Brian Westbrook, but now not so much. He's also started to drift away somewhat from his heavy use of trap runs up the middle, but still finds time to sneak a few in. The introduction of Michael Vick has made the most influential change on Reid's offense, with a switch away from heavier protections that supported down field passes to the likes of DeSean Jackson, and now leans a little more towards multi receiver, "spread" type sets, permitting Vick more opportunities to run up the vacated space in the middle.
The Panthers have also done the same with Cam Newton, shifting away from an offense that used to sit often in the "I" formation and run a lot with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, to operating more out of the gun which is more familiar to Newton, and again using more of a "spread" look to give him more room for running up the middle.
We'll stop there, but this tour could continue around basically the entire NFL. As generic as the teams might sometimes look, as they steal ideas and plays from one another, just keep in mind that all is not what it seems. Lots of teams have different approaches, even if the subtleties of those approaches is not easy to discern at first.
Tuesday, November 08, 2011
2011 Week 9 round up
That's week 9 in the books then and I don't know about you but two things struck me this weekend more than anything else;
1) The amount of drops,
2) The amount of bad pass interference penalties,
It just seemed like a lot of receivers were getting hit in the hands and yet not making the catch, while at the same time it often didn't matter because of some of the highly dubious pass interference calls going about. Now don't get me wrong, I want both players to have a legitimate opportunity to catch the ball. But I also think that when you get two athletic and competitive individuals running downfield while looking back over their shoulders for the ball, naturally there is going to be a degree of contact. The league really needs to let that contact slide, providing there's no serious pulling of jerseys or pinning down of arms.
On a side note, there also seemed to be a few too many flags for helmet to helmet contact that was largely unavoidable. It seems even when defenders go to the effort of leading with the hands or the shoulders whilst trying to keep their helmets out of the way to avoid contact, they're still getting flagged just because of minor scrapes. It's getting really boring seeing flags for that.
Boring could also be a word used to describe many of this weeks games, providing your not a fan of good defensive football. Personally I thought it was quite refreshing to see defenses taking center stage in many of the week 9 games. There's nothing like a good stuffed run or a great sack/pressure to set the tone for a tough, competitive game of football.
The Jets/Bills game probably wasn't as competitive as many (including me) had thought it would be though. Ryan Fitzpatrick was uncharacteristically off form and threw some bad interceptions. The Bills D also struggled somewhat after a ten sack showing the previous week. Praise though for Mark Sanchez, who hit 20/28 and shook off an early interception. Shonne Greene also did well, finally breaking out some big runs.
Now a question; have the Seahawks ever been competitive this season? If they were, then that's long since turned into a distant memory. 2/10 on third down, 3 interceptions from Tavaris Jackson and an offensive line that looks at times like they're just being manhandled. The Cowboys on the other hand finally seem to be pulling it all together. They're using creative blitzes and movement to get DeMarcus Ware some great one on one matchups, while at the same Tony Romo is finding the going a little easier on offense, not least because DeMarco Murray is gouging people in the running game.
Don't worry though Seahawks fans, Browns fans are going through the same thing. One touchdown on offense, which came in the fourth quarter. 4/12 on third down. Four sacks given up. 261 yards rushing given up on defense. It's just a horror show in Cleveland at times. Colt McCoy looks sick and tired of the NFL already and it's only his second season; 14/22 for 146 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Surprisingly that was actually better than Matt Schaub, a quarterback we'd normally associate with being one of the better in the NFL. Luckily for Houston their defense was solid and their rushing attack produced two 100 yard rushers in Foster and Tate, which does kind of rekindle an old question of mine about running games; which is more important, the O-line or the running back?
And if Seahawks and Browns fans thought they had it bad, just spare a thought for Colts fans this season (it definitely sounds weird saying that). After Delone Carter's fumble the Colts basically pulled him in favour of Donald Brown and the rest is history. Matt Ryan barely completed a little over half his passes, but against the Colts secondary that was enough. Julio Jones even managed to make a catch in triple coverage, without a Colts player even so much as touching the ball. I'm still trying to figure out how. As are the Colts coaches no doubt.
Now the other day I picked the Chiefs over the Dolphins, citing that the Dolphins had no pass rush, no pass offense, no running game and couldn't tackle. So what do they do? They throw for 244 yards and 3 touchdowns, rush for 107 net yards (Reggie Bush; 13 carries, 92 yards, 1 touchdown) rack up five sacks on defense and have two players with over 10 tackles as they hold the Chiefs to a single field goal. The two 10+ tackle defenders were linebackers Karlos Dansby (11 tackles and a forced fumble) and the inspired Kevin Burnett (11 tackles, 2 assists and 1.5 sacks). They were still 3/10 on third down, but this was a massive leap forward for their season. Really excellent result for Miami.
Not such a good result for Tampa, who managed to score 16 and hold the Saints to 27. They love them scores. What they don't love is falling apart at the seams, which it appears they started to here, with guys chucking each other around, throwing punches, bitching and generally doing the exact opposite of showing a unified front to adversity. LeGarrette Blount was back for the Buc's, but he was no match alone for the Saints, who found plenty of running room with Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory all ripping off yards on the ground. Throw in another 250+ yard game for Drew Brees and you have a Saints team firing on all cylinders beating a Buccaneers team that is still trying to slot all the young pieces into the right place and make them work as a single, purring machine.
The 49ers meanwhile are anything but a purring machine, yet still somehow find a way to win games (*cough* soft schedule). 3/12 on third down, 0/2 in the red zone, but four field goals and a 30 yard TD pass to Bruce Miller were enough to get it done. Frank Gore had another 107 yards rushing and Alex Smith actually threw for 200 yards on the money. Still, they look less than inspirational and while the NFC West is basically wrapped up now, the seemingly inevitable fall from grace in the play offs is going to hurt.
Staying in the west, this time the AFC West, a division that is very much up for grabs not least because three of the four teams lost this week and the sole victors, the Broncos, did it against a division rival in the Raiders. For a while it looked like Oakland might squeak the win, with Carson Palmer looking a lot better now he's had some time with his receivers (he still threw three interceptions). A late collapse however sealed the Raiders fate. Tebow's passing looked a lot better and his receivers actually graced him with a few catches, but it was on the ground where Denver did most of its damage. Willis McGahee had 163 yards and 2 touchdowns, with Tebow contributing another 118 yards. The Broncos pass rush also came alive somewhat with Elvis Dumervil producing 1.5 sacks alone.
One young quarterback who is doing really well is Andy Dalton. 3 touchdowns for him and some good drives put together as the Bengals win their fifth in a row. Perhaps the story of the day might be the Titans rushing attack, as Chris Johnson finally started to find his feet, picking up 64 yards on 14 carries, which isn't great but could just be him getting warmed up? Hasselbeck made some nice throws at times but his inconsistency overall let him down.
Rams/Cardinals next. Now normally when two bad teams with ok offenses play each other, it turns into a shootout. This didn't. The Rams needed two safeties just to keep it competitive, despite 130 yards on the ground for Steven Jackson and 255 yards through the air for Sam Bradford. In the end it came down to a 99 yard punt return for a touchdown by Patrick Peterson who is rapidly becoming the new Devin Hester e.g. not a very good corner, great at special teams returns, does a stupid dance going into the end zone and is loved by Deion Sanders for no apparent reason.
Now if you thought the Rams were going to get an earful for letting Peterson return that punt, I'd love to know what the Patriots got from Coach Belichick after giving up the ball four times, including 3 turnovers from Tom Brady. I'm just loving the Giants defense right now, as they step out of the normal mold for 4-3 teams and get a bit more creative, and hopefully I'll take a closer look at that later this week. Even with that pressure Brady still managed to pass for 342 yards, but it was Eli Manning who made the biggest impression from the quarterback spot, cooling leading a last minute drive to win the game. This was a huge win for the Giants.
Now I have another question for you; who needs Aaron Rodgers when the opposing quarterback throws two pick sixes? The answer is the Green Bay Packers and they really did need him, because after scoring 14 defensive points they still left the door open until a last ditch interception iced the game. Rivers ended the game with 4 touchdowns and was driving well for a fifth when he threw that third and last interception. Aaron Rodgers was blazing once again though, hitting 21/26 for 247 yards and 4 touchdowns.
What? The Steelers and Ravens having a physical game of football. Would never have seen that coming! Of course the league doesn't like games like this because they might actually be fun for people to watch, so the refs made sure to stick a few flags in there just to dampen the affair down a bit. Notice also that if you had to pick one game that most neutral fans would love to watch and are excited about, it's nearly always going to be a Steelers/Ravens game. There is a reason for that and it's called physical football. This one didn't disappoint and even managed to likely please Goodell because both quarterbacks threw for over 300 yards with not a lot of running going on, at least not after Ray Rice's huge opening play TD run was called back for a hold. James Harrison had a big night on defense with 3 sacks and plenty more pressure, but ultimately Joe Flacco held it together for the winning drive. His receivers should also take the brunt of the blame for why they didn't score more.
And last but not least, Monday Night football saw the Bears beating the Eagles. You have to watch Eagles games. You just have to right now. More out of morbid curiosity than anything. You just want to see what they'll mess up next and this time it was a fake punt on fourth down that saw Eagles punter Chas Henry throw possibly the worst pass I've ever seen in my life. Couple that with a hit and miss performance from Mike Vick, average pass protection by the Eagles O-line and some poor defense from the Eagles linebackers and secondary, mixed with a dash of suspect penalties and you have the recipe for a Bears win. Cutler didn't look great, but was just good enough to support the running of Matt Forte. The Eagles are in a tough spot again.
So pick wise that leaves me 10-4 for week 9, not bad at all, and that bumps me to 78-57 for the season. A few more weeks like this and I'll be back on track in no time. As for the rest of the week, I want to take a look at some of the things the Giants did defensively against the Patriots but other than that I'm a bit sparse for material, so I might take a look at how last years rookie watch list (and missing watch listers) are getting on.
1) The amount of drops,
2) The amount of bad pass interference penalties,
It just seemed like a lot of receivers were getting hit in the hands and yet not making the catch, while at the same time it often didn't matter because of some of the highly dubious pass interference calls going about. Now don't get me wrong, I want both players to have a legitimate opportunity to catch the ball. But I also think that when you get two athletic and competitive individuals running downfield while looking back over their shoulders for the ball, naturally there is going to be a degree of contact. The league really needs to let that contact slide, providing there's no serious pulling of jerseys or pinning down of arms.
On a side note, there also seemed to be a few too many flags for helmet to helmet contact that was largely unavoidable. It seems even when defenders go to the effort of leading with the hands or the shoulders whilst trying to keep their helmets out of the way to avoid contact, they're still getting flagged just because of minor scrapes. It's getting really boring seeing flags for that.
Boring could also be a word used to describe many of this weeks games, providing your not a fan of good defensive football. Personally I thought it was quite refreshing to see defenses taking center stage in many of the week 9 games. There's nothing like a good stuffed run or a great sack/pressure to set the tone for a tough, competitive game of football.
The Jets/Bills game probably wasn't as competitive as many (including me) had thought it would be though. Ryan Fitzpatrick was uncharacteristically off form and threw some bad interceptions. The Bills D also struggled somewhat after a ten sack showing the previous week. Praise though for Mark Sanchez, who hit 20/28 and shook off an early interception. Shonne Greene also did well, finally breaking out some big runs.
Now a question; have the Seahawks ever been competitive this season? If they were, then that's long since turned into a distant memory. 2/10 on third down, 3 interceptions from Tavaris Jackson and an offensive line that looks at times like they're just being manhandled. The Cowboys on the other hand finally seem to be pulling it all together. They're using creative blitzes and movement to get DeMarcus Ware some great one on one matchups, while at the same Tony Romo is finding the going a little easier on offense, not least because DeMarco Murray is gouging people in the running game.
Don't worry though Seahawks fans, Browns fans are going through the same thing. One touchdown on offense, which came in the fourth quarter. 4/12 on third down. Four sacks given up. 261 yards rushing given up on defense. It's just a horror show in Cleveland at times. Colt McCoy looks sick and tired of the NFL already and it's only his second season; 14/22 for 146 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Surprisingly that was actually better than Matt Schaub, a quarterback we'd normally associate with being one of the better in the NFL. Luckily for Houston their defense was solid and their rushing attack produced two 100 yard rushers in Foster and Tate, which does kind of rekindle an old question of mine about running games; which is more important, the O-line or the running back?
And if Seahawks and Browns fans thought they had it bad, just spare a thought for Colts fans this season (it definitely sounds weird saying that). After Delone Carter's fumble the Colts basically pulled him in favour of Donald Brown and the rest is history. Matt Ryan barely completed a little over half his passes, but against the Colts secondary that was enough. Julio Jones even managed to make a catch in triple coverage, without a Colts player even so much as touching the ball. I'm still trying to figure out how. As are the Colts coaches no doubt.
Now the other day I picked the Chiefs over the Dolphins, citing that the Dolphins had no pass rush, no pass offense, no running game and couldn't tackle. So what do they do? They throw for 244 yards and 3 touchdowns, rush for 107 net yards (Reggie Bush; 13 carries, 92 yards, 1 touchdown) rack up five sacks on defense and have two players with over 10 tackles as they hold the Chiefs to a single field goal. The two 10+ tackle defenders were linebackers Karlos Dansby (11 tackles and a forced fumble) and the inspired Kevin Burnett (11 tackles, 2 assists and 1.5 sacks). They were still 3/10 on third down, but this was a massive leap forward for their season. Really excellent result for Miami.
Not such a good result for Tampa, who managed to score 16 and hold the Saints to 27. They love them scores. What they don't love is falling apart at the seams, which it appears they started to here, with guys chucking each other around, throwing punches, bitching and generally doing the exact opposite of showing a unified front to adversity. LeGarrette Blount was back for the Buc's, but he was no match alone for the Saints, who found plenty of running room with Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory all ripping off yards on the ground. Throw in another 250+ yard game for Drew Brees and you have a Saints team firing on all cylinders beating a Buccaneers team that is still trying to slot all the young pieces into the right place and make them work as a single, purring machine.
The 49ers meanwhile are anything but a purring machine, yet still somehow find a way to win games (*cough* soft schedule). 3/12 on third down, 0/2 in the red zone, but four field goals and a 30 yard TD pass to Bruce Miller were enough to get it done. Frank Gore had another 107 yards rushing and Alex Smith actually threw for 200 yards on the money. Still, they look less than inspirational and while the NFC West is basically wrapped up now, the seemingly inevitable fall from grace in the play offs is going to hurt.
Staying in the west, this time the AFC West, a division that is very much up for grabs not least because three of the four teams lost this week and the sole victors, the Broncos, did it against a division rival in the Raiders. For a while it looked like Oakland might squeak the win, with Carson Palmer looking a lot better now he's had some time with his receivers (he still threw three interceptions). A late collapse however sealed the Raiders fate. Tebow's passing looked a lot better and his receivers actually graced him with a few catches, but it was on the ground where Denver did most of its damage. Willis McGahee had 163 yards and 2 touchdowns, with Tebow contributing another 118 yards. The Broncos pass rush also came alive somewhat with Elvis Dumervil producing 1.5 sacks alone.
One young quarterback who is doing really well is Andy Dalton. 3 touchdowns for him and some good drives put together as the Bengals win their fifth in a row. Perhaps the story of the day might be the Titans rushing attack, as Chris Johnson finally started to find his feet, picking up 64 yards on 14 carries, which isn't great but could just be him getting warmed up? Hasselbeck made some nice throws at times but his inconsistency overall let him down.
Rams/Cardinals next. Now normally when two bad teams with ok offenses play each other, it turns into a shootout. This didn't. The Rams needed two safeties just to keep it competitive, despite 130 yards on the ground for Steven Jackson and 255 yards through the air for Sam Bradford. In the end it came down to a 99 yard punt return for a touchdown by Patrick Peterson who is rapidly becoming the new Devin Hester e.g. not a very good corner, great at special teams returns, does a stupid dance going into the end zone and is loved by Deion Sanders for no apparent reason.
Now if you thought the Rams were going to get an earful for letting Peterson return that punt, I'd love to know what the Patriots got from Coach Belichick after giving up the ball four times, including 3 turnovers from Tom Brady. I'm just loving the Giants defense right now, as they step out of the normal mold for 4-3 teams and get a bit more creative, and hopefully I'll take a closer look at that later this week. Even with that pressure Brady still managed to pass for 342 yards, but it was Eli Manning who made the biggest impression from the quarterback spot, cooling leading a last minute drive to win the game. This was a huge win for the Giants.
Now I have another question for you; who needs Aaron Rodgers when the opposing quarterback throws two pick sixes? The answer is the Green Bay Packers and they really did need him, because after scoring 14 defensive points they still left the door open until a last ditch interception iced the game. Rivers ended the game with 4 touchdowns and was driving well for a fifth when he threw that third and last interception. Aaron Rodgers was blazing once again though, hitting 21/26 for 247 yards and 4 touchdowns.
What? The Steelers and Ravens having a physical game of football. Would never have seen that coming! Of course the league doesn't like games like this because they might actually be fun for people to watch, so the refs made sure to stick a few flags in there just to dampen the affair down a bit. Notice also that if you had to pick one game that most neutral fans would love to watch and are excited about, it's nearly always going to be a Steelers/Ravens game. There is a reason for that and it's called physical football. This one didn't disappoint and even managed to likely please Goodell because both quarterbacks threw for over 300 yards with not a lot of running going on, at least not after Ray Rice's huge opening play TD run was called back for a hold. James Harrison had a big night on defense with 3 sacks and plenty more pressure, but ultimately Joe Flacco held it together for the winning drive. His receivers should also take the brunt of the blame for why they didn't score more.
And last but not least, Monday Night football saw the Bears beating the Eagles. You have to watch Eagles games. You just have to right now. More out of morbid curiosity than anything. You just want to see what they'll mess up next and this time it was a fake punt on fourth down that saw Eagles punter Chas Henry throw possibly the worst pass I've ever seen in my life. Couple that with a hit and miss performance from Mike Vick, average pass protection by the Eagles O-line and some poor defense from the Eagles linebackers and secondary, mixed with a dash of suspect penalties and you have the recipe for a Bears win. Cutler didn't look great, but was just good enough to support the running of Matt Forte. The Eagles are in a tough spot again.
So pick wise that leaves me 10-4 for week 9, not bad at all, and that bumps me to 78-57 for the season. A few more weeks like this and I'll be back on track in no time. As for the rest of the week, I want to take a look at some of the things the Giants did defensively against the Patriots but other than that I'm a bit sparse for material, so I might take a look at how last years rookie watch list (and missing watch listers) are getting on.
Sunday, November 06, 2011
2011 Week 9 picks
Time to make some Week 9 picks, starting with;
Jets @ Bills; Right off the bat, I'm a little stumped. The Jets have a great defense to match up with the Bills offense, and while the Bills defense put up 10 sacks last week that was against the Redskins (originally 9, but after review an additional sack was later awarded). The Jets O-line is hardly a startling example to all youngsters of great pass protection, but they've improved lately and are probably better than the Redskins. Weighing the options, I can't get behind Mark Sanchez. The Bills have strength on both sides of the ball, the Jets just don't right now. Bills win.
Seahawks @ Cowboys; Nope. Still can't back the Seahawks for anything. Cowboys win.
Browns @ Texans; Frankly this is a horrible mismatch. The Browns offense, whose production seems to routinely amount to a field goal or two, against the Texans offense, who routinely run people right off the field. I just can't take the Browns seriously at the minute, while I take the Texans very seriously indeed. Texans win.
Falcons @ Colts; Hmm, shall I take the Colts this week? Nooooooo. Not against a Falcons team that just has a feel about it, like they're starting to find their groove. The Colts have a better chance than perhaps it might seem on the surface, but they need to give their defense a serious kick up the butt for that to become a reality. Falcons win.
Dolphins @ Chiefs; No pass rush. No running game. No passing game. No pass coverage. No tackling. It can only be the Miami Dolphins c.2011. The Chiefs aren't quite the comeback team of the season that a lot of people are making them out to be, but they're still more competent than the Dolphins. Chiefs win.
Buccaneers @ Saints; These two last met not long ago in week 6 when the Buccaneers handed the Saints their second loss of the season and started a 3 game stretch for the Saints where they've picked up just one win, having lost to the Rams 21-31 last week. For me, a lot about this result depends on which Buccaneers team shows up to play. Other than the 49ers game, the Buccaneers have consistently scored in and around the 16 to 26 point mark, while giving up between 13 to 27 points on defense. Other than the 49ers game, every game the Buc's have played this year has been settled by just the one score difference. That means the Buc's are hanging in there in the games that they lose, while not pulling away from teams when they win. Can they really hang around with the Saints one more time? I'm just not convinced. Saints win.
49ers @ Redskins; The team that gave up ten sacks last week welcomes one of the NFL's leading defenses (as a 49er fan, I still can't believe I'm saying that). The only thing that worries me is how the 49ers offense will hold up against some very good Redskins pass rushers like Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan. The 49ers have had to get creative lately to move the ball (a left tackle and a nose tackle catching passes!) but so far the defense and the run game has been enough to see them through. For one more week at least I think that continues. 49ers win.
Broncos @ Raiders; I've already made my feelings clear that I think the Tebow bashing has gotten way out of hand, so I'm not going to go down that route again here. I'm more interested in the Raiders, specifically the fact that without Darren McFadden available due to injury, where is the Raiders offense going to come from? Carson Palmer? Kyle Boller? Don't count on it. I feel more comfortable backing Tebow here. Broncos win.
Bengals @ Titans; The Titans offense is struggling at the minute and they're about to run into another road block in the form of the Bengals defense, who are solid and sound, if not particularly spectacular. Coupled with the gradual improvement in the Bengals offense, fuelled by the developing connection between Andy Dalton and A.J. Green, I have to favour Cincinnati here. Bengals win.
Rams @ Cardinals; Now here is probably the most interesting battle between two 1-6 teams that you're ever likely to see. The Rams are coming off a huge win against the Saints, where the pressure of their defense made a huge impact. The Kevin Kolb lead Cardinals are ripe for the picking really, combining a somewhat shaky O-line with a quarterback who holds onto the ball too long. If the Rams can get Steven Jackson going again, it may just be too much for Arizona. Rams win.
Giants @ Patriots; The Patriots had been putting up 30 points a game until they ran into the Cowboys, then went on their bye and came back to face the Steelers, only to be held to 17. The difference has really been the pressure that they're seeing and this is something that the Giants really excel at. The blue side of New York has seen a huge improvement in it's pass rush this year, which could come in very handy against Tom Brady. They're also getting much better play from the secondary, with Cory Webster finding a rhythm of late that could lead to picks. And for once, I'm beginning to trust Eli Manning. Giants win.
Packers @ Chargers; With the Packers playing at a level that is arguably higher than last year, while the Chargers find new and interesting ways to self-destruct, I can't look beyond Green Bay for this one. Until Phillip Rivers can kick whatever that funk is he's in, San Diego will struggle to beat anyone, let alone the reigning world champions. Packers win.
Ravens @ Steelers; Sunday Night Football hits the jackpot again, though a part of me does think this could get ugly, in the reverse manner to the way it did in week 1 when the Ravens blew the Steelers out 35-7. The Ravens offense just isn't playing very consistently. We've seen some big scores from the Ravens, but a lot of that is on the defense for creating turnovers. Flacco is struggling to build drives and Ray Rice must be thinking he's gone out of fashion the little he sees of the ball. Compare and contrast with the Steelers, who've been getting better and better offensively as Ben Roethlisberger gradually heals up that busted ankle and becomes more comfortable moving and throwing. The Steelers D has also done an amazing job in overcoming their injury woes and look primed for a shot at revenge. Either way, we the fans are the real winners this week. So are Pittsburgh though. Steelers win.
Bears @ Eagles; So then, bandwagon time? The Eagles played great against the Cowboys after coming off their bye week, but is all really forgiven? Can we really sweep aside the Eagles problems in the red zone? Well for me this all comes down to the Eagles defense. Their "wide nine" defensive end alignments give them a great pass rush against the already notoriously well beaten up Jay Cutler, but it also exposes them to the Bears great rushing attack. See I'm thinking that defensively the Bears have what it takes to at least contain the Eagles somewhat, though maybe not enough to shut them down, but I don't think the Eagles defense is stout enough to contain the Bears. It needs a few things to fall into place correctly, but I'm going to say that Chicago has this. Bears win.
Jets @ Bills; Right off the bat, I'm a little stumped. The Jets have a great defense to match up with the Bills offense, and while the Bills defense put up 10 sacks last week that was against the Redskins (originally 9, but after review an additional sack was later awarded). The Jets O-line is hardly a startling example to all youngsters of great pass protection, but they've improved lately and are probably better than the Redskins. Weighing the options, I can't get behind Mark Sanchez. The Bills have strength on both sides of the ball, the Jets just don't right now. Bills win.
Seahawks @ Cowboys; Nope. Still can't back the Seahawks for anything. Cowboys win.
Browns @ Texans; Frankly this is a horrible mismatch. The Browns offense, whose production seems to routinely amount to a field goal or two, against the Texans offense, who routinely run people right off the field. I just can't take the Browns seriously at the minute, while I take the Texans very seriously indeed. Texans win.
Falcons @ Colts; Hmm, shall I take the Colts this week? Nooooooo. Not against a Falcons team that just has a feel about it, like they're starting to find their groove. The Colts have a better chance than perhaps it might seem on the surface, but they need to give their defense a serious kick up the butt for that to become a reality. Falcons win.
Dolphins @ Chiefs; No pass rush. No running game. No passing game. No pass coverage. No tackling. It can only be the Miami Dolphins c.2011. The Chiefs aren't quite the comeback team of the season that a lot of people are making them out to be, but they're still more competent than the Dolphins. Chiefs win.
Buccaneers @ Saints; These two last met not long ago in week 6 when the Buccaneers handed the Saints their second loss of the season and started a 3 game stretch for the Saints where they've picked up just one win, having lost to the Rams 21-31 last week. For me, a lot about this result depends on which Buccaneers team shows up to play. Other than the 49ers game, the Buccaneers have consistently scored in and around the 16 to 26 point mark, while giving up between 13 to 27 points on defense. Other than the 49ers game, every game the Buc's have played this year has been settled by just the one score difference. That means the Buc's are hanging in there in the games that they lose, while not pulling away from teams when they win. Can they really hang around with the Saints one more time? I'm just not convinced. Saints win.
49ers @ Redskins; The team that gave up ten sacks last week welcomes one of the NFL's leading defenses (as a 49er fan, I still can't believe I'm saying that). The only thing that worries me is how the 49ers offense will hold up against some very good Redskins pass rushers like Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan. The 49ers have had to get creative lately to move the ball (a left tackle and a nose tackle catching passes!) but so far the defense and the run game has been enough to see them through. For one more week at least I think that continues. 49ers win.
Broncos @ Raiders; I've already made my feelings clear that I think the Tebow bashing has gotten way out of hand, so I'm not going to go down that route again here. I'm more interested in the Raiders, specifically the fact that without Darren McFadden available due to injury, where is the Raiders offense going to come from? Carson Palmer? Kyle Boller? Don't count on it. I feel more comfortable backing Tebow here. Broncos win.
Bengals @ Titans; The Titans offense is struggling at the minute and they're about to run into another road block in the form of the Bengals defense, who are solid and sound, if not particularly spectacular. Coupled with the gradual improvement in the Bengals offense, fuelled by the developing connection between Andy Dalton and A.J. Green, I have to favour Cincinnati here. Bengals win.
Rams @ Cardinals; Now here is probably the most interesting battle between two 1-6 teams that you're ever likely to see. The Rams are coming off a huge win against the Saints, where the pressure of their defense made a huge impact. The Kevin Kolb lead Cardinals are ripe for the picking really, combining a somewhat shaky O-line with a quarterback who holds onto the ball too long. If the Rams can get Steven Jackson going again, it may just be too much for Arizona. Rams win.
Giants @ Patriots; The Patriots had been putting up 30 points a game until they ran into the Cowboys, then went on their bye and came back to face the Steelers, only to be held to 17. The difference has really been the pressure that they're seeing and this is something that the Giants really excel at. The blue side of New York has seen a huge improvement in it's pass rush this year, which could come in very handy against Tom Brady. They're also getting much better play from the secondary, with Cory Webster finding a rhythm of late that could lead to picks. And for once, I'm beginning to trust Eli Manning. Giants win.
Packers @ Chargers; With the Packers playing at a level that is arguably higher than last year, while the Chargers find new and interesting ways to self-destruct, I can't look beyond Green Bay for this one. Until Phillip Rivers can kick whatever that funk is he's in, San Diego will struggle to beat anyone, let alone the reigning world champions. Packers win.
Ravens @ Steelers; Sunday Night Football hits the jackpot again, though a part of me does think this could get ugly, in the reverse manner to the way it did in week 1 when the Ravens blew the Steelers out 35-7. The Ravens offense just isn't playing very consistently. We've seen some big scores from the Ravens, but a lot of that is on the defense for creating turnovers. Flacco is struggling to build drives and Ray Rice must be thinking he's gone out of fashion the little he sees of the ball. Compare and contrast with the Steelers, who've been getting better and better offensively as Ben Roethlisberger gradually heals up that busted ankle and becomes more comfortable moving and throwing. The Steelers D has also done an amazing job in overcoming their injury woes and look primed for a shot at revenge. Either way, we the fans are the real winners this week. So are Pittsburgh though. Steelers win.
Bears @ Eagles; So then, bandwagon time? The Eagles played great against the Cowboys after coming off their bye week, but is all really forgiven? Can we really sweep aside the Eagles problems in the red zone? Well for me this all comes down to the Eagles defense. Their "wide nine" defensive end alignments give them a great pass rush against the already notoriously well beaten up Jay Cutler, but it also exposes them to the Bears great rushing attack. See I'm thinking that defensively the Bears have what it takes to at least contain the Eagles somewhat, though maybe not enough to shut them down, but I don't think the Eagles defense is stout enough to contain the Bears. It needs a few things to fall into place correctly, but I'm going to say that Chicago has this. Bears win.
Saturday, November 05, 2011
Work, Cam Newton and an alternative to the NFL
So I'm going to cover three things today.
The first is an advanced warning that in about two weeks time all my work shifts are changing ahead of the Christmas period. This means that the likely hood is that my production of posts will a) drop in number as I'll have less time to dedicate to the blog, and b) become more erratic, as the time and times that I have to work on the blog will be less consistent from week to week. Which is a pain in the butt to say the least, but bills must be paid etc.
The second thing I want to address is some of the extreme hyperbole surrounding Cam Newton, because it's now reaching ridiculous proportions.
Cam has had a great rookie season so far by anyones standards. I'm slowly being converted to the Cam Newton bandwagon. Slowly. In fact this season has probably surpassed anything that even the most ardent of pre-season Newton supporters thought possible. It has been something quite remarkable to watch. But ProFootballTalk.com appears to be leading the growing charge among the press in putting Cam Newton up there as a "top ten quarterback".
Now just hold the f**k up a second. Top ten quarterback? In eight games so far this season Newton has won two, lost six, beating the 2-6 Jaguars and the 3-4 Redskins, while losing games to the Cardinals, Packers, Bears, Saints, Falcons and Vikings. Now I appreciate that wins and losses aren't all the fault of the quarterback, so let's take a closer look at his individual numbers according to the NFL.com stats page on Newton.
So far Newton is averaging about a 60% completion percentage for the season. He consistently fell below this in weeks 3-5, twice coming close to just 50%, but got a huge boost in week 7 against Washington when he completed 18/23 for a 78% completion rating, which pulled his season rating back up again. His average yards per completion is currently 8.3, but even that is riding largely on two games (Redskins and Cardinals) which hauled it up from his normal sub 10 yard showings, though the 4.6 against the Jaguars does pull it down somewhat to kind of compensate.
Newton has so far thrown 11 touchdowns in these 8 games, but then three of those came last week against the Vikings. A more typical showing from Newton is to throw just one touchdown. He also has 9 interceptions, though the Packers and Falcons games accounted for 6 of these in just two games, so normally Cam has actually been pretty good at not turning the ball over. He also has given up 17 sacks so far, but I'm actually prepared to call this a good result for Cam, because if it wasn't for his running ability then he'd have given up way more behind what is frankly a bit of a shambles of an O-line.
So there we see, some good, some bad. But Cam is not a top ten quarterback. Nor should we expect him to be. He's a rookie and for a rookie, yes, he's playing pretty darn well. However I think some people need to get a reality check. He hasn't suddenly become a first ballot hall of famer overnight. If he progresses with his career in the same manner he has this season, then you can expect good things for him in the future. I just wish sometimes the press would tone it down a little. Calling him a top ten quarterback in the NFL is not only misleading, but it serves his career no good to make such wild claims, which will undoubtedly be turned against him in the future at an opportunity of the media's choosing.
So that's one and two out of the way, now for the main event.
Number three of the things to cover today is my crazy ass idea for an alternative league to the NFL, or rather how I would approach such a task if some mysterious benefactor dropped $20 million in my lap and said "make it happen". This is by no means an exhaustive list of my many mental ramblings on this subject and if and when I think of new things to add, I'll drop back here to edit and update. If anyone has any suggestions, by all means leave a comment or email me here;
keepingthechainsmoving@live.co.uk
Let the madness begin!
First off the bat is the need to avoid some of the difficulties suffered by the NFL as a result of it's status as a legal entity. Now realistically speaking, the NFL is a series of franchises, not able to conduct profitable business if separated. If the Dallas Cowboys dont have access to games with other NFL teams, then they don't sell tickets, they don't generate TV money and they go out of business pretty sharpish.
The law doesn't quite seem to see it that way however. So the immediate goal would be to create a single entity, a league that not only organises the schedule and lays down the rules, but actually legally owns all the franchises and the assets attached to those franchises. Team "owners" would purchase the right to run the franchise and all its associated operations (player signings, coaching decisions etc) in a fixed location and then the revenues from the league as a whole would be pooled together and dished out to the "owners" (as well as a cut for the league entity), perhaps with some locally generated income purely kept for the local franchises.
I'll admit that I haven't given a huge amount of thought to that side of it.
So where would these franchises be based? How many? What would the league structure look like?
Well the priority is to try and hit markets that don't already accommodate football teams, or if they do then accommodate some of the NFL's lesser franchises. It's also important I think to try and keep the franchises reasonably co-located, literally within a few hours drive of each other if possible. The purpose of this is to keep down the travel costs early on, while starting to build the rivalries between local teams that make football special.
Preferably the league would start with no less than six teams, located in one local division. Nothing is worse than the approach adopted by the UFL, where they had just four teams on the go. That hardly makes for an enticing season. At least with six teams you get five home games and five away games, with a league wide bye in the middle, allowing for 11 weeks of football. If two divisions of six could be formed that would be even more ideal, with the winner of each division meeting at some neutral site for a bowl game.
This also plays well into the timing I'm thinking of, namely somewhere in the late April to mid July region. The obvious purpose of this is to dodge going head to head with the NFL like a raging bull. It's also a time when the football news dries up and fans are left dangling for any slight sliver of something that might be interesting and football related. A decent outdoor league would do the trick nicely.
Of particular interest to me, area wise, are;
- The North West, including Tahoma and Spokane in Washington; Portland, Oregon; and Vancouver and Surrey across the border in Canada.
- California, including, Sacramento, San Jose, Fresno, Bakersfield and Riverside, possibly with Las Vegas, Nevada and/or Tuscon, Arizona thrown into the mix.
- Texas, specifically San Antonio, Corpus Christi, Austin, Lubbock, maybe Fort Worth (a little close to the Jerrah Dome!) and maybe Houston, or Oklahoma City if you're prepared to travel a bit North.
- North Eastern, including Providence, Rhode Island; Hartford, Connecticut; Springfield, Massachusetts; Albany, New York; and possibly some other cities in and around that area.
- Northern New York, including Syracuse, Rochester, Buffalo, perhaps Albany in this one, maybe Pittsburgh, maybe a cross border incursion to Hamilton in Canada.
- Central North, basically centered around a northern Ohio/Northern Indiana/Michigan type division, including Akron, Columbus and Toledo in Ohio, with maybe Fort Wayne, Indiana; and Grand Rapids, Michigan, thrown in, or perhaps a more south Ohio/Kentucky type look, with Dayton and Cincinnati, Ohio; Louisville and Lexington, Kentucky; with a few other cities thrown in.
That's just a brief, off the top of my head (and Google maps aided) list. Obviously the presence of willing backers and available stadiums would dictate much of where any actual league took place.
So now we've got our league set up, but who's going to play in it? The level of football can't match the NFL right? Well... probably not quite that level, no. But every year a ton of kids from college who are pretty handy football players either go undrafted and unsigned, or at the very least get dumped from NFL training camps never to return, not even on the practice squad. There is actually a reasonably decent talent pool to choose from, the key is just to hold off the draft until November-December time, to give the wannabe but never will be NFL players a chance to slip through all the appropriate cracks in the NFL system and give them time to realise that they're best shot is to take an offer from the alternate league, or else go join the unemployment line with everyone else.
So we now have a pool of players, but how to assign them? A draft, like the NFL?
Well actually I'm thinking not. I understand why some players complain about the draft system. It really isn't that fair. Your choices when selected by a team are basically sign, or sit out for twelve months. So I'm thinking of a system altogether a little more complex, but probably more fair in the long run. Basically the league would issue teams with a bunch of blank contracts of varying values, based on draft order.
They would range from long term contracts with solid guaranteed salaries and nice signing bonuses, down to one or two year deals with virtually no guaranteed money and crappy signing bonuses. If we use the NFL's 32 team system for a moment just for convenience, the team with the worst record would be issued with the best contract, then perhaps the next five or six teams would be issued with a second tier contract, the next ten teams with a third tier, and so on down, going through the "draft order" over multiple rounds, so that each team ended up with seven contracts of gradually decreasing values.
On draft day/week they would then be free to offer these contracts to whoever they pleased in a giant free for all, and the players would be free to agree to whichever deal they liked most. So maybe they sign with the highest offer, or maybe they turn down a slightly better offer in favour of joining a winning team. Teams could trade the contracts as much as they like, just like teams trade picks now. The draft day/week would be less of a formal, structured event and more of a lot of haggling over the phone with the occasional announcement that so and so player has just signed a deal with abc team.
At the end of the process, each team has to offer all of it's contracts to somebody (well they don't have to, but the contracts are only good for that rookie signing period). Any players left who haven't been offered deals become "undrafted" free agents. Any player who has been offered one or more contracts but refused to sign any is deemed ineligible for the season and must reapply next year. This way teams get to try and sign players who they perhaps wouldn't normally, while players get at least some say in who it is they ultimately end up playing for, although weaker teams still hold the balance of power somewhat.
So now we have teams and those teams have players. But how do we get the word out?
The answer is right in front of you. The Internet. There are many reasons why the UFL failed, but prime among them was the fact that their web presence was shocking. Their website was total garbage. They had a YouTube channel, but it had nothing worthwhile on it. No player profiles, no highlight reels from their college days, no game highlights (or at least very short, badly shot ones).
For the amount of money that the UFL had, they surely could have invested in - at the very minimum- some "Prosumer" cameras and got some local college media students to shoot the games from a decent vantage point, then posted 10-20 minute highlight reels on their YouTube channel, so at least the general public had some idea of what a UFL game looked like.
I'm just stunned at the lack of a forceful online presence. In this day and age it doesn't cost a lot for a business with millions to spend to get itself established on the web and to get its content out there for fans to see. Maybe if they'd earned enough hits, they might even have been able to persuade someone to give them a TV deal of some sort.
So we've got our teams, who have their players, and we're getting the word out about the league. But what are the fans going to see on the field that differs from the NFL? What's the selling point? This is where I mainly go into rant mode about all the little changes that I'd like to make to football, so excuse me if I kind of go off on one. I'm pretty sure that not everyone would like these changes, but then this is just me farting out ideas so take it for what it is - the ranting of a semi-madman.
- The kick off would be moved back to the 35 yard line and all kicking is to be done in the punting style. That includes kick-offs, field goals, free kicks and punts. No holders, just a snap to the kicker who steps up and kicks, without the ball touching the ground. Illegal touching rules still apply to the kicking team except on kick-offs and the receiving team may return any kick that comes down inbounds and doesn’t touch the end zone (automatic touchback), with the exception of an extra point. I just hate the whole holding and placekicking business. Just punt kick the thing and let's get on with it.
- The clock would not stop on an incomplete pass, it would keep running. The only way to stop the clock is with a foul, a time out or throwing the ball out of bounds/running out of bounds. I've just never understood why the clock stops for an incomplete pass, but not a failed run for example. The only thing I can think of is because it would prompt teams in the lead to chuck that thing all the way downfield, hoping that it doesn't get picked off. This also means no spike plays, but hey, you might just get a QB lining up and kicking in desperation!
- The college rules regarding when a receiver gets one foot down in bounds to make a catch and when a runner is ruled down would be used. I've always hated it when a receiver makes a catch, then gets touched by the faintest glance of an opponents foot and is then deemed down. Just make every player who goes down, down, regardless of whether they've been touched or not.
- Once the ball has been pitched or handed off by the quarterback (or the first person after the center to touch the ball) it can no longer be thrown. This precludes any kind of reverse pass, half back pass or flea flicker type plays, which I've always hated. Dont ask me why, I just hate them.
- The roughing penalties would be changed so that incidental contact to the quarterback or kicker would not be flagged. Only blatant late hits or deliberate shots at the kickers standing leg (without attempt to block a kick) will be flagged. Hitting the quarterback below or including the knee would be permitted.
- One of my pet hates now, I'd make sure offensive pass interference was properly enforced and put a ban on receivers "rubbing" past each other, to pick off defenders. I hate it when offenses do that. To me that's effectively a "get a first down for free" card, and it especially bugs me some of the more blatant examples of offensive pass interference that I've seen. We have to give everyone a chance to make a fair play, not just the offense.
- The "Tuck" rule dies. If the quarterback gets hit and loses the ball in the act of throwing a pass then tough s**t, that's a fumble.
- To give offenses a break for a minute, I'd also stop defensive players from jumping into the neutral zone. I don't understand how if an offensive lineman twitches that is considered to be this big deal, but a defensive man can step right across the line trying to jump the snap count and providing the ball isn't snapped is allowed to recover back to his position. Not anymore. Instant offsides flag I think.
- Intentional grounding rule changed. I hate it when defensive guys make a great play and a quarterback can just toss the ball away to deny the sack. So I'd change it so that any quarterback regardless of where he is on the field, who is in the clutches of a defender, must either complete or nearly complete his intended pass. Throwing the ball out of bounds will be considered intentional grounding.
- Speaking of balls, I'd rather use the college style ball with the white markings on one half, to make it easier for both players and fans to track it. After all, the fans are what football is all about.
- From a league standpoint, official warnings and suspensions would replace the NFL's system of fines. I understand that the fine money is given to charity, but the NFL's fining policy has almost zero consistency and at times appears to be geared towards just extracting money from players for the sake of building up the charity pot. It also fails to change behaviour in most cases.
- Officials would be trained to identify concussion like symptoms and have the authority under obvious circumstances to eject a player from the game on medical grounds.
So there you go. There's my crazy ass plan for an alternative league to the NFL. If anyone wants to give me $20 million to get it going, you just go right ahead. I'll be back tomorrow for my week 9 picks.
The first is an advanced warning that in about two weeks time all my work shifts are changing ahead of the Christmas period. This means that the likely hood is that my production of posts will a) drop in number as I'll have less time to dedicate to the blog, and b) become more erratic, as the time and times that I have to work on the blog will be less consistent from week to week. Which is a pain in the butt to say the least, but bills must be paid etc.
The second thing I want to address is some of the extreme hyperbole surrounding Cam Newton, because it's now reaching ridiculous proportions.
Cam has had a great rookie season so far by anyones standards. I'm slowly being converted to the Cam Newton bandwagon. Slowly. In fact this season has probably surpassed anything that even the most ardent of pre-season Newton supporters thought possible. It has been something quite remarkable to watch. But ProFootballTalk.com appears to be leading the growing charge among the press in putting Cam Newton up there as a "top ten quarterback".
Now just hold the f**k up a second. Top ten quarterback? In eight games so far this season Newton has won two, lost six, beating the 2-6 Jaguars and the 3-4 Redskins, while losing games to the Cardinals, Packers, Bears, Saints, Falcons and Vikings. Now I appreciate that wins and losses aren't all the fault of the quarterback, so let's take a closer look at his individual numbers according to the NFL.com stats page on Newton.
So far Newton is averaging about a 60% completion percentage for the season. He consistently fell below this in weeks 3-5, twice coming close to just 50%, but got a huge boost in week 7 against Washington when he completed 18/23 for a 78% completion rating, which pulled his season rating back up again. His average yards per completion is currently 8.3, but even that is riding largely on two games (Redskins and Cardinals) which hauled it up from his normal sub 10 yard showings, though the 4.6 against the Jaguars does pull it down somewhat to kind of compensate.
Newton has so far thrown 11 touchdowns in these 8 games, but then three of those came last week against the Vikings. A more typical showing from Newton is to throw just one touchdown. He also has 9 interceptions, though the Packers and Falcons games accounted for 6 of these in just two games, so normally Cam has actually been pretty good at not turning the ball over. He also has given up 17 sacks so far, but I'm actually prepared to call this a good result for Cam, because if it wasn't for his running ability then he'd have given up way more behind what is frankly a bit of a shambles of an O-line.
So there we see, some good, some bad. But Cam is not a top ten quarterback. Nor should we expect him to be. He's a rookie and for a rookie, yes, he's playing pretty darn well. However I think some people need to get a reality check. He hasn't suddenly become a first ballot hall of famer overnight. If he progresses with his career in the same manner he has this season, then you can expect good things for him in the future. I just wish sometimes the press would tone it down a little. Calling him a top ten quarterback in the NFL is not only misleading, but it serves his career no good to make such wild claims, which will undoubtedly be turned against him in the future at an opportunity of the media's choosing.
So that's one and two out of the way, now for the main event.
Number three of the things to cover today is my crazy ass idea for an alternative league to the NFL, or rather how I would approach such a task if some mysterious benefactor dropped $20 million in my lap and said "make it happen". This is by no means an exhaustive list of my many mental ramblings on this subject and if and when I think of new things to add, I'll drop back here to edit and update. If anyone has any suggestions, by all means leave a comment or email me here;
keepingthechainsmoving@live.co.uk
Let the madness begin!
First off the bat is the need to avoid some of the difficulties suffered by the NFL as a result of it's status as a legal entity. Now realistically speaking, the NFL is a series of franchises, not able to conduct profitable business if separated. If the Dallas Cowboys dont have access to games with other NFL teams, then they don't sell tickets, they don't generate TV money and they go out of business pretty sharpish.
The law doesn't quite seem to see it that way however. So the immediate goal would be to create a single entity, a league that not only organises the schedule and lays down the rules, but actually legally owns all the franchises and the assets attached to those franchises. Team "owners" would purchase the right to run the franchise and all its associated operations (player signings, coaching decisions etc) in a fixed location and then the revenues from the league as a whole would be pooled together and dished out to the "owners" (as well as a cut for the league entity), perhaps with some locally generated income purely kept for the local franchises.
I'll admit that I haven't given a huge amount of thought to that side of it.
So where would these franchises be based? How many? What would the league structure look like?
Well the priority is to try and hit markets that don't already accommodate football teams, or if they do then accommodate some of the NFL's lesser franchises. It's also important I think to try and keep the franchises reasonably co-located, literally within a few hours drive of each other if possible. The purpose of this is to keep down the travel costs early on, while starting to build the rivalries between local teams that make football special.
Preferably the league would start with no less than six teams, located in one local division. Nothing is worse than the approach adopted by the UFL, where they had just four teams on the go. That hardly makes for an enticing season. At least with six teams you get five home games and five away games, with a league wide bye in the middle, allowing for 11 weeks of football. If two divisions of six could be formed that would be even more ideal, with the winner of each division meeting at some neutral site for a bowl game.
This also plays well into the timing I'm thinking of, namely somewhere in the late April to mid July region. The obvious purpose of this is to dodge going head to head with the NFL like a raging bull. It's also a time when the football news dries up and fans are left dangling for any slight sliver of something that might be interesting and football related. A decent outdoor league would do the trick nicely.
Of particular interest to me, area wise, are;
- The North West, including Tahoma and Spokane in Washington; Portland, Oregon; and Vancouver and Surrey across the border in Canada.
- California, including, Sacramento, San Jose, Fresno, Bakersfield and Riverside, possibly with Las Vegas, Nevada and/or Tuscon, Arizona thrown into the mix.
- Texas, specifically San Antonio, Corpus Christi, Austin, Lubbock, maybe Fort Worth (a little close to the Jerrah Dome!) and maybe Houston, or Oklahoma City if you're prepared to travel a bit North.
- North Eastern, including Providence, Rhode Island; Hartford, Connecticut; Springfield, Massachusetts; Albany, New York; and possibly some other cities in and around that area.
- Northern New York, including Syracuse, Rochester, Buffalo, perhaps Albany in this one, maybe Pittsburgh, maybe a cross border incursion to Hamilton in Canada.
- Central North, basically centered around a northern Ohio/Northern Indiana/Michigan type division, including Akron, Columbus and Toledo in Ohio, with maybe Fort Wayne, Indiana; and Grand Rapids, Michigan, thrown in, or perhaps a more south Ohio/Kentucky type look, with Dayton and Cincinnati, Ohio; Louisville and Lexington, Kentucky; with a few other cities thrown in.
That's just a brief, off the top of my head (and Google maps aided) list. Obviously the presence of willing backers and available stadiums would dictate much of where any actual league took place.
So now we've got our league set up, but who's going to play in it? The level of football can't match the NFL right? Well... probably not quite that level, no. But every year a ton of kids from college who are pretty handy football players either go undrafted and unsigned, or at the very least get dumped from NFL training camps never to return, not even on the practice squad. There is actually a reasonably decent talent pool to choose from, the key is just to hold off the draft until November-December time, to give the wannabe but never will be NFL players a chance to slip through all the appropriate cracks in the NFL system and give them time to realise that they're best shot is to take an offer from the alternate league, or else go join the unemployment line with everyone else.
So we now have a pool of players, but how to assign them? A draft, like the NFL?
Well actually I'm thinking not. I understand why some players complain about the draft system. It really isn't that fair. Your choices when selected by a team are basically sign, or sit out for twelve months. So I'm thinking of a system altogether a little more complex, but probably more fair in the long run. Basically the league would issue teams with a bunch of blank contracts of varying values, based on draft order.
They would range from long term contracts with solid guaranteed salaries and nice signing bonuses, down to one or two year deals with virtually no guaranteed money and crappy signing bonuses. If we use the NFL's 32 team system for a moment just for convenience, the team with the worst record would be issued with the best contract, then perhaps the next five or six teams would be issued with a second tier contract, the next ten teams with a third tier, and so on down, going through the "draft order" over multiple rounds, so that each team ended up with seven contracts of gradually decreasing values.
On draft day/week they would then be free to offer these contracts to whoever they pleased in a giant free for all, and the players would be free to agree to whichever deal they liked most. So maybe they sign with the highest offer, or maybe they turn down a slightly better offer in favour of joining a winning team. Teams could trade the contracts as much as they like, just like teams trade picks now. The draft day/week would be less of a formal, structured event and more of a lot of haggling over the phone with the occasional announcement that so and so player has just signed a deal with abc team.
At the end of the process, each team has to offer all of it's contracts to somebody (well they don't have to, but the contracts are only good for that rookie signing period). Any players left who haven't been offered deals become "undrafted" free agents. Any player who has been offered one or more contracts but refused to sign any is deemed ineligible for the season and must reapply next year. This way teams get to try and sign players who they perhaps wouldn't normally, while players get at least some say in who it is they ultimately end up playing for, although weaker teams still hold the balance of power somewhat.
So now we have teams and those teams have players. But how do we get the word out?
The answer is right in front of you. The Internet. There are many reasons why the UFL failed, but prime among them was the fact that their web presence was shocking. Their website was total garbage. They had a YouTube channel, but it had nothing worthwhile on it. No player profiles, no highlight reels from their college days, no game highlights (or at least very short, badly shot ones).
For the amount of money that the UFL had, they surely could have invested in - at the very minimum- some "Prosumer" cameras and got some local college media students to shoot the games from a decent vantage point, then posted 10-20 minute highlight reels on their YouTube channel, so at least the general public had some idea of what a UFL game looked like.
I'm just stunned at the lack of a forceful online presence. In this day and age it doesn't cost a lot for a business with millions to spend to get itself established on the web and to get its content out there for fans to see. Maybe if they'd earned enough hits, they might even have been able to persuade someone to give them a TV deal of some sort.
So we've got our teams, who have their players, and we're getting the word out about the league. But what are the fans going to see on the field that differs from the NFL? What's the selling point? This is where I mainly go into rant mode about all the little changes that I'd like to make to football, so excuse me if I kind of go off on one. I'm pretty sure that not everyone would like these changes, but then this is just me farting out ideas so take it for what it is - the ranting of a semi-madman.
- The kick off would be moved back to the 35 yard line and all kicking is to be done in the punting style. That includes kick-offs, field goals, free kicks and punts. No holders, just a snap to the kicker who steps up and kicks, without the ball touching the ground. Illegal touching rules still apply to the kicking team except on kick-offs and the receiving team may return any kick that comes down inbounds and doesn’t touch the end zone (automatic touchback), with the exception of an extra point. I just hate the whole holding and placekicking business. Just punt kick the thing and let's get on with it.
- The clock would not stop on an incomplete pass, it would keep running. The only way to stop the clock is with a foul, a time out or throwing the ball out of bounds/running out of bounds. I've just never understood why the clock stops for an incomplete pass, but not a failed run for example. The only thing I can think of is because it would prompt teams in the lead to chuck that thing all the way downfield, hoping that it doesn't get picked off. This also means no spike plays, but hey, you might just get a QB lining up and kicking in desperation!
- The college rules regarding when a receiver gets one foot down in bounds to make a catch and when a runner is ruled down would be used. I've always hated it when a receiver makes a catch, then gets touched by the faintest glance of an opponents foot and is then deemed down. Just make every player who goes down, down, regardless of whether they've been touched or not.
- Once the ball has been pitched or handed off by the quarterback (or the first person after the center to touch the ball) it can no longer be thrown. This precludes any kind of reverse pass, half back pass or flea flicker type plays, which I've always hated. Dont ask me why, I just hate them.
- The roughing penalties would be changed so that incidental contact to the quarterback or kicker would not be flagged. Only blatant late hits or deliberate shots at the kickers standing leg (without attempt to block a kick) will be flagged. Hitting the quarterback below or including the knee would be permitted.
- One of my pet hates now, I'd make sure offensive pass interference was properly enforced and put a ban on receivers "rubbing" past each other, to pick off defenders. I hate it when offenses do that. To me that's effectively a "get a first down for free" card, and it especially bugs me some of the more blatant examples of offensive pass interference that I've seen. We have to give everyone a chance to make a fair play, not just the offense.
- The "Tuck" rule dies. If the quarterback gets hit and loses the ball in the act of throwing a pass then tough s**t, that's a fumble.
- To give offenses a break for a minute, I'd also stop defensive players from jumping into the neutral zone. I don't understand how if an offensive lineman twitches that is considered to be this big deal, but a defensive man can step right across the line trying to jump the snap count and providing the ball isn't snapped is allowed to recover back to his position. Not anymore. Instant offsides flag I think.
- Intentional grounding rule changed. I hate it when defensive guys make a great play and a quarterback can just toss the ball away to deny the sack. So I'd change it so that any quarterback regardless of where he is on the field, who is in the clutches of a defender, must either complete or nearly complete his intended pass. Throwing the ball out of bounds will be considered intentional grounding.
- Speaking of balls, I'd rather use the college style ball with the white markings on one half, to make it easier for both players and fans to track it. After all, the fans are what football is all about.
- From a league standpoint, official warnings and suspensions would replace the NFL's system of fines. I understand that the fine money is given to charity, but the NFL's fining policy has almost zero consistency and at times appears to be geared towards just extracting money from players for the sake of building up the charity pot. It also fails to change behaviour in most cases.
- Officials would be trained to identify concussion like symptoms and have the authority under obvious circumstances to eject a player from the game on medical grounds.
So there you go. There's my crazy ass plan for an alternative league to the NFL. If anyone wants to give me $20 million to get it going, you just go right ahead. I'll be back tomorrow for my week 9 picks.
Thursday, November 03, 2011
The Eagles and the outside zone
Right.
Today I want to look at a run play that the Eagles used time and again against the Cowboys to pick up big yards. There are several reasons why this play interests me;
- We're always told that you can't run the same play twice in the NFL, because if you do, the defense will figure it out and be ready next time. Plainly that's not the case (and to be honest, never really has been),
- It follows on well from the posts I did about zone running, specifically the article that covered the play-pass off of the outside zone run,
- The tactical battle between the defense and the offense,
The last point is one that I really want to focus in on. Now without having sat in the meeting rooms during the week I can't say the following for certain - but it struck me that the Cowboys had set out their defense to take away the inside trap running that the Eagles are fond of. With the added threat of Mike Vick breaking out of the pocket and running up the middle, it made some sense for the Cowboys to protect the middle of their defense.
But there's protecting the middle and then there's loading so many guys up the middle that you leave the edge of your defensive front vulnerable. Lets take a look at the layout ahead of a 21-yard run by LeSean McCoy;
As you can see, the Cowboys have set their defense strongly to the right, with plenty of coverage against the run up the middle as well. The Eagles have brought a second tight end into the game, who is aligned just behind the starting tight end, and they're going to use that player to expose the weakness of the Cowboys defense to the left.
What they're going to do is run an outside zone to the right, caving down on a defense that has already been bunched up somewhat in the middle. The Will linebacker "W" (DeMarcus Ware) is going to be left unblocked by the offensive line, instead leaving the second tight end to come across the back of the play and make the block.
Now when Ware sees the left tackle blocking down and away from him, his job is to slant hard inside and fill the vacant hole on the backside of the play, to stuff any chance of a cut back run. He needs to keep his head up and his eyes open for that second tight end coming hard down the line to block him, and he really needs to defeat that block.
He doesn't.
DeMarcus Ware being DeMarcus Ware, he's looking for the potential sack on a pass play (he had four in the game), so he charges hard down field. The second tight end comes across and cuts at his feet, doing just enough to keep Ware out of the play and opening a huge hole to the backside. McCoy starts his run to the right, but seeing the penetration of the defensive tackles up the middle, cuts it back left and finds a hole so big you could drive an SUV through it;
Of note is the weak safety, who actually comes flying down hill, possibly worried about that second tight end leaking out of the backside of the play and into the flat, as described in my article of the play-pass off the outside zone. McCoy is able to cut inside of him and rumble for the 21 yard gain.
Right about now the cat is out of the bag. The Eagles now know that when they run the outside zone away from Ware, that Ware will come too far down hill because of his pass rush instincts. The next time the Eagles ran this play, Ware had a safety blitzing outside of him, but still didn't react quick enough to the left tackle blocking down. When he finally did turn inside to take on that tight end coming across the formation, he got his head stuck on the wrong side of the man and was blocked out of the play.
To be fair to Ware, his nearest defensive end didn't do him any favours on the second play, slanting so hard inwards as a reaction to the run action right that he ended up leaving a massive hole between him and Ware. One of the great advantages that the Packers, Ravens and Steelers have had against the run in recent years has been the discipline and stoutness of their defensive linemen against the run, occupying blockers and playing two gaps in order to free up their linebackers to make more of the plays.
I just thought I'd bring this play up because it rounds off the series of articles on zone plays nicely, showing the use of the second tight end to block the backside instead of a fullback. I also like the fact that once the Eagles had spotted a weakness that they went back to the play again and again, knowing that McCoy could make the read and cut back through that big gap. Often it's the ability or failure to spot these little things and make adjustments during the game (without the benefit of replays like me ;) ) that often separate some of the more successful coaches from their peers.
That's all for today. Tomorrow I'm planning to put down my crazy idea for an NFL alternative, in honor of the UFL potentially playing its last season. Till then, enjoy your day.
Today I want to look at a run play that the Eagles used time and again against the Cowboys to pick up big yards. There are several reasons why this play interests me;
- We're always told that you can't run the same play twice in the NFL, because if you do, the defense will figure it out and be ready next time. Plainly that's not the case (and to be honest, never really has been),
- It follows on well from the posts I did about zone running, specifically the article that covered the play-pass off of the outside zone run,
- The tactical battle between the defense and the offense,
The last point is one that I really want to focus in on. Now without having sat in the meeting rooms during the week I can't say the following for certain - but it struck me that the Cowboys had set out their defense to take away the inside trap running that the Eagles are fond of. With the added threat of Mike Vick breaking out of the pocket and running up the middle, it made some sense for the Cowboys to protect the middle of their defense.
But there's protecting the middle and then there's loading so many guys up the middle that you leave the edge of your defensive front vulnerable. Lets take a look at the layout ahead of a 21-yard run by LeSean McCoy;
As you can see, the Cowboys have set their defense strongly to the right, with plenty of coverage against the run up the middle as well. The Eagles have brought a second tight end into the game, who is aligned just behind the starting tight end, and they're going to use that player to expose the weakness of the Cowboys defense to the left.
What they're going to do is run an outside zone to the right, caving down on a defense that has already been bunched up somewhat in the middle. The Will linebacker "W" (DeMarcus Ware) is going to be left unblocked by the offensive line, instead leaving the second tight end to come across the back of the play and make the block.
Now when Ware sees the left tackle blocking down and away from him, his job is to slant hard inside and fill the vacant hole on the backside of the play, to stuff any chance of a cut back run. He needs to keep his head up and his eyes open for that second tight end coming hard down the line to block him, and he really needs to defeat that block.
He doesn't.
DeMarcus Ware being DeMarcus Ware, he's looking for the potential sack on a pass play (he had four in the game), so he charges hard down field. The second tight end comes across and cuts at his feet, doing just enough to keep Ware out of the play and opening a huge hole to the backside. McCoy starts his run to the right, but seeing the penetration of the defensive tackles up the middle, cuts it back left and finds a hole so big you could drive an SUV through it;
Of note is the weak safety, who actually comes flying down hill, possibly worried about that second tight end leaking out of the backside of the play and into the flat, as described in my article of the play-pass off the outside zone. McCoy is able to cut inside of him and rumble for the 21 yard gain.
Right about now the cat is out of the bag. The Eagles now know that when they run the outside zone away from Ware, that Ware will come too far down hill because of his pass rush instincts. The next time the Eagles ran this play, Ware had a safety blitzing outside of him, but still didn't react quick enough to the left tackle blocking down. When he finally did turn inside to take on that tight end coming across the formation, he got his head stuck on the wrong side of the man and was blocked out of the play.
To be fair to Ware, his nearest defensive end didn't do him any favours on the second play, slanting so hard inwards as a reaction to the run action right that he ended up leaving a massive hole between him and Ware. One of the great advantages that the Packers, Ravens and Steelers have had against the run in recent years has been the discipline and stoutness of their defensive linemen against the run, occupying blockers and playing two gaps in order to free up their linebackers to make more of the plays.
I just thought I'd bring this play up because it rounds off the series of articles on zone plays nicely, showing the use of the second tight end to block the backside instead of a fullback. I also like the fact that once the Eagles had spotted a weakness that they went back to the play again and again, knowing that McCoy could make the read and cut back through that big gap. Often it's the ability or failure to spot these little things and make adjustments during the game (without the benefit of replays like me ;) ) that often separate some of the more successful coaches from their peers.
That's all for today. Tomorrow I'm planning to put down my crazy idea for an NFL alternative, in honor of the UFL potentially playing its last season. Till then, enjoy your day.
Tuesday, November 01, 2011
2011 week 8 recap and writing schedule
So this week I'm going to do the recap a little differently. Instead of breaking it down game by game, I'm going to do this as a kind of blob of random thoughts on the games loosely connected together. Apology's if this annoys anyone but I just find this method a little easier.
The first thing that needs to be addressed is the performance of Tim Tebow, or rather the completely ridiculous hyperbole that has been spewed all over the press as a result of the game. Now I'm not trying to sugar coat it, it wasn't the finest day in Tebow's career by a long shot. But at the same time, some of the stuff I've read, from ProFootballTalk.com to the Denver Post etc, is just absolutely stupid.
People are calling this the worst performance by a quarterback they've ever seen and so on, however I would disagree. A few things that need to be kept in mind before everyone jumps on the bandwagon are that not only did Tebow throw for one touchdown, but he actually hit Eric Decker perfectly in stride in the endzone for what appeared to be a second, except Decker's second step after catching the ball went onto the white lines, crossing it out.
Tebow also hit a number of his receivers in the chest at various points, passes that they failed to catch. I'm not really sure how these can be blamed solely on Tebow, but hey, I guess anything goes when there's a hot story to be pushed! It should also be kept in mind that from a technical perspective, the offensive line looked awful. Rookie Orlando Franklin, who spent the majority of his college career playing at guard (and looking pretty good at that position) was at right tackle... getting absolutely trashed by Cliff Avril (2 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovery for a TD). Zane Beadles, playing at left guard, got ripped to shreds at times.
It was something of a mess and it goes a long way to explaining why Kyle Orton didn't have that much luck either. It should be worth noting that once the clock got inside the four minute mark, the Lions called off most of their heavy pass rush, which finally allowed the Broncos line to cope, and at which point Tebow actually started stringing passes together. In fact, probably the only thing more annoying than the unwarranted bashing of Tebow in the press is that everyone is now jumping on the Lions again as if they're destined for the Super Bowl and calling them "the real deal" just because they beat the Broncos. They're not. No, they're really not.
Speaking of heavy pass rushes, the Bills shutting down the Redskins was pretty impressive. The Bills shifted rookie first rounder Marcel Dareus to the nose tackle position in their 3-4 scheme, with seemingly stunning results. Dareus had 2.5 sacks himself, which contributed to a 9 sack performance overall by the Bills defense. Dwan Edwards also picked up 1.5 sacks. How much of that was down to the Bills new scheme and how much was down to the Redskins singular failure in recent weeks to protect their quarterback is up for debate.
John Beck threw two interceptions just to make the night even more miserable for Redskins fans as they were shut out. The Bills offense stepped up in this game, though doubtless their performance will be overshadowed by the D. Ryan Fitzpatrick was 21/27 for over 250 yards, while Fred Jackson carried 26 times for another 120 yards onto his season tally. He also added 74 yards off 3 receptions to cap a great day.
And the pass rush theme continues, as the Rams pulled off the shocker of the day against the Saints. What impressed me most was how much variety the Rams threw into their defense, sometimes going with a three man line, and sometimes bringing linebackers down to threaten the blitz. It made the front harder to read for the Saints line and created a plethora of one on one opportunities, not least for Chris Long who finished the game with 3 of his defense's six sacks.
On offense, while A.J. Feeley struggled still, Steven Jackson was back with a bang, running for 159 yards and two touchdowns off his 25 carries. It was the Saints offense that caught the most attention though. Not only did they let the sacks pile up as they struggled to handle a more confusing defense than expected from the Rams, but Brees also threw 2 interceptions and for large parts of the game was severely restricted in his throwing.
Another pass rush that came up big was the Giants. They, like the Rams, tried a bit of variety with some 3-4 fronts at times and also by bringing the blitz to compliment their base 4 down lineman fronts. The five sacks they put together as a unit had a big impact, as did Eli Manning's 31/45 for 349 yards and two touchdowns. It's still a little worrying though that a strong performance like this resulted in just 20 points, as the Giants went 1/3 in the red zone.
Possibly the biggest story of the Dolphins/Giants game turned out to be Reggie Bush. Bush had 15 carries for 103 yards, including some tough runs up the middle and a few tackle breaking runs. It was most unBush like and at least gives Dolphins fans a faint glimmer of hope.
But I want to go back to talking about pass rush and that means the Minnesota Vikings win over the Panthers. That seems like an odd thing to say because the Vikings only pulled out 3 sacks, but they could have had a lot more if it wasn't for the physical skills of Cam Newton, who displayed impressive strength and balance once more.
The reason why I'm so high on what the Vikings, Rams and Giants did this weekend is because they really pushed the mould of what an NFL 4-3 defense should do. Not since I think Buddy Ryan's Bear defenses have we seen 4-3 defenses that have blitzed as much and had as much success as the three teams mentioned above. It was refreshing to see them cast off the age old shackles of having to generate all their pressure with just the front four guys and trying something new.
This has really been the key to the success of 3-4 defenses. It's not that the structure of a 3-4 is inherently better for generating pressure, it's just that 3-4 teams tend to be more fond of the blitz and are more prepared to bring the heat from multiple directions. In fact most 3-4 defenses routinely bring five or more guys, something which it seems the 4-3 teams are just starting to figure out. I wouldn't be surprised, given how well these teams got on in Week 8, if we don't see more teams have a shot at it and start to see the record setting passing numbers start to slowly fall.
There was more to this game though than just the Vikings defense, not least the Panthers D which put up four sacks of it's own and got Christian Ponder moving. Ponder did ok this time, completing 18/28 for 236 yards and a touchdown, and he definitely looks like he's improving with each game. On the flip side, Cam Newton actually had a pretty good game, in the pocket and out of it, throwing 22/35 for 290 yards and 3 touchdowns, on top of running for 53 yards off 6 carries.
It was still the good and the bad though. The good was his passing, which looked more controlled this time, and his footwork on the drop back has measurably improved over the course of the season. But... he did fumble the ball twice and still has a knack for holding onto the ball a little. His offensive line isn't helping much. Like I said, without his movement skills (and perhaps some better Viking tackling at times) they'd have easily given up six or seven sacks total.
Like the Cardinals O-line did (six)! They simply couldn't handle Terrell Suggs and Paul Kruger. Kruger had two sacks coming off the edge and Suggs, while only picking up the one sack, was a menace in the Cardinals backfield all game. The Ravens offense still had it's struggles. 4/11 on third down, 3/6 in the red zone, and somehow Joe Flacco ended up passing another 51 times, hitting on 31 of those for 336 yards and a pick. Ray Rice had 18 carries for 63 yards and 3 short touchdowns, but I imagine the Ravens defense and Suggs in particular are still going to be looking at Cam Cameron nervously on future game days.
Onto Jacksonville at Houston and what can you really say about Blaine Gabbert? 10/30 for 97 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions? Yet apparently, if the main networks and sports news outlets are to be believed, he had a better day than Tim Tebow? This wouldn't have anything to do with the fact that everyone was touting Gabbert to be the best overall quarterback in the 2011 draft now would it? I'm sure that doesn't factor into it at all...
To be honest, Gabbert doesn't exactly have the worlds greatest O-line in front of him either, but at least his only gave up the one sack to Brooks Reed. Gabbert struggles to focus down field under pressure and shy's away from contact, even if he's half way through a throw. It's just not looking like there's anything there to build in, which at least exists in some of the other young quarterbacks who are not doing all that well (Dalton, Tebow, McCoy, Ponder).
The story for the Texans was more predictable. Arian Foster carried 33 times for 112 yards and a touchdown, as well as just the one catch for 12 yards this time. A standard of performance which is masking the story of Matt Schaub now that he doesn't have Andre Johnson on the field; that he's regressed back to being a 16/30 for 225 yard passer, compared to the giddy heights he's used to.
The story for division compatriots the Colts is much worse. Curtis Painter was asked to throw it 49 times against the Titans. Forty nine times? He managed 26 completions for 250 yards but another two interceptions brought more misery for him. I just find it amusing that given how well rookie running back Delone Carter played last week, that this week he got just 9 carries. Maybe it's because last week was so epically forgettable that the Colts also forgot about Carter?
The Titans might be forgetting about Chris Johnson. On one play, a power run right from the gun, Johnson cut back away from a clean whole right in to two Colts Linebackers. His 14 carries produced a mere 34 yards, a tally nearly doubled by Javon Ringer off the the same amount of carries. It didn't matter too much, as Matt Hasselbeck went 22/33 for 224 yards and what really should have been 2 touchdowns were it not for the red tape matter of a swing pass to Nate Washington just about travelling backwards a few inches, thus technically making it a pitch.
The most attention grabbing moment of that game for me though was the Colts defense, and the contrast between their "same old, same old" approach and that of teams like the Giants and Rams etc. While other people are pushing new ideas (or reviving old ideas?) the Colts are lumping along with a four man rush backed by either cover-2 or tampa-2, and looking for all the world like an inflexible block of concrete that has no ability to adapt while being picked apart by other teams.
Meanwhile in Pittsburgh it was another standard week for Ben Roethlisberger, which meant spending another 60 minutes getting bounced from pillar to post and generally having the shit kicked out of him, including two sacks for the impressive Patriot Andre Carter and four overall for that defense. Still Roethlisberger pressed on and actually finished 36/50 (yes, the Steelers throwing it 50 times) for 365 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception.
What was abnormal this week was Tom Brady only hitting 24/35 for just 198 yards, 2 touchdowns. That's some very unBrady like numbers right there. He was still staring down receivers so nothing new there, but a big flag that went up for me was how little mobility he appeared to have left. Not that Brady was ever exactly a sprinter trapped in a football uniform, but he's become very stiff legged and you could see that once defenders got penetration through the line, Brady was practically dead meat. That's a worrying sign.
Like Tavaris Jackson going 21/40 for 323 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception. The Seattle running game was non-existent so that's a non starter. It was bad enough for the Seahawks when Brandon Tate returned a punt for a touchdown, but the pick six by Thomas Howard was the final nail in Seattle's coffin. Andy Dalton had another pretty good day for the Bengals. 18/29, that's over 50%, for 168 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He and receiver A.J. Green appear to be developing a bit of that quarterback/receiver chemistry that leads to long careers for both, though it's early days yet.
Early days too for Jim Harbaugh, but if he keeps this up he's set for a long career. Even as a 49ers fan I'm still not fully ready to climb on the bandwagon and tell the driver to get up and go, but with the lead the 49ers have the NFC West is looking pretty one way this season. I'm just worried what will happen come playoff time. Not least because for all the praise, San Francisco still only beat the Browns by 10 points, including two early touchdowns, while ending up 2/5 in the red zone.
On the bright side, it's still fun watching teams trying to block Ahmad Brooks (2 sacks) using a running back. Hint; that has a tendency to go down like a fart joke at a Papal speech. Aldon Smith and Patrick Willis also added to their sack tally. In addition to the sacks, Colt McCoy fumbled the ball 3 times, recovering 2 and losing one. He did manage to complete 22/34 for 241 yards, a touchdown and a pick, but he can't seem to shake off some of the more troublesome aspects of his play.
A problem not unknown to Alex Smith, who was 15/24 with a touchdown but didn't get over 200 yards passing. At least he's stopped throwing interceptions for now. Again it was running back Frank Gore that picked up the pace, with 31 carries for 134 yards and a touchdown with some great runs off tackle on power plays. Funniest moment of the game is tied between Issac Sopogoa and Joe Staley, both of whom came out of the backfield as stand in fullbacks and caught passes of 18 and 17 yards respectively.
And where there's fun to be had, laughter to be made, the Cowboys can't be far away. Unless they're playing the Eagles who are coming off a bye week, at which point they get left in the distance and busted open for over 200 yards on the ground, including 185 and 2 touchdowns for LeSean McCoy off 30 carries, then give up another 279 yards and two touchdowns through the air.
All this despite DeMarcus Ware recording four sacks.
The Eagles fought back with four of their own, with two going to Jason Babin, but it was their offense that undeniably won the game, ripping the Cowboys to shreds at will. In fairness, Cowboys receiver Laurent Robinson has to be given some praise for his 5 catches, 103 yards and a touchdown, as does rookie Cowboys back DeMarco Murray for his 8 carries for 74 yards (longest; 26), but it was a small drop in the ocean.
Cowboys fans will probably be the most cut up about Murray. After his record setting game last week he basically set a pace this week to beat his own record (9.25 yards per carry this week), yet still couldn't get the touches. I understand that the Cowboys were down by 21 early in the second quarter, but Romo completed less than 50% of his passes as once again the Cowboys offense struggled. Murray is clearly the ultra hot hand right now, give him a chance to prove his worth.
And finally we come to the Monday Night game. Or should that be the Monday Night botch. Botched snaps, interceptions, fumbles, missed tackles, this was tantamount to a horror show worthy of Halloween. Though it did have it's plus moments. Just not a whole lot of them.
Phillip Rivers was up to his old tricks, throwing 26/41 for 369 yards, 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. The Chargers would end up 1/4 in the red zone and didn't score a touchdown till the fourth quarter. That has to be depressing for Chargers fans, to watch your team march beautifully down the field week after week, then week after week come up short when it really matters the most.
Oddly enough it was Matt Cassel who came up a treat. Kind of. 19/32 isn't great, but he strung completions together right when they were needed most, overcoming his 2 interceptions to lead an overtime drive, with the help of some determined running from Jackie Battle to set up the winning field goal. Yet while the Chiefs may have won the game, people watching that scrappy game ended up as losers.
So with all the results in that leaves my week 8 picks at a ghoulish 7-6, taking my season tally to 68-48. Definitely must try harder next week.
As for the rest of this week, my writing schedule at the minute will involve looking at a run the Eagles used a few times with great success against the Cowboys and then putting down on paper my random and probably quite idiotic idea for how I would try and build a rival league to the NFL. I just want that down on (electronic) paper, for my own sanity. I'm sure there was also something else that I said I was going to look at this week, but I'm buggered if I can remember what it was.
Till the next time, enjoy your Halloween (mercifully we only had one visit. Of a child, not a ghost) and I'll see you soon.
The first thing that needs to be addressed is the performance of Tim Tebow, or rather the completely ridiculous hyperbole that has been spewed all over the press as a result of the game. Now I'm not trying to sugar coat it, it wasn't the finest day in Tebow's career by a long shot. But at the same time, some of the stuff I've read, from ProFootballTalk.com to the Denver Post etc, is just absolutely stupid.
People are calling this the worst performance by a quarterback they've ever seen and so on, however I would disagree. A few things that need to be kept in mind before everyone jumps on the bandwagon are that not only did Tebow throw for one touchdown, but he actually hit Eric Decker perfectly in stride in the endzone for what appeared to be a second, except Decker's second step after catching the ball went onto the white lines, crossing it out.
Tebow also hit a number of his receivers in the chest at various points, passes that they failed to catch. I'm not really sure how these can be blamed solely on Tebow, but hey, I guess anything goes when there's a hot story to be pushed! It should also be kept in mind that from a technical perspective, the offensive line looked awful. Rookie Orlando Franklin, who spent the majority of his college career playing at guard (and looking pretty good at that position) was at right tackle... getting absolutely trashed by Cliff Avril (2 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovery for a TD). Zane Beadles, playing at left guard, got ripped to shreds at times.
It was something of a mess and it goes a long way to explaining why Kyle Orton didn't have that much luck either. It should be worth noting that once the clock got inside the four minute mark, the Lions called off most of their heavy pass rush, which finally allowed the Broncos line to cope, and at which point Tebow actually started stringing passes together. In fact, probably the only thing more annoying than the unwarranted bashing of Tebow in the press is that everyone is now jumping on the Lions again as if they're destined for the Super Bowl and calling them "the real deal" just because they beat the Broncos. They're not. No, they're really not.
Speaking of heavy pass rushes, the Bills shutting down the Redskins was pretty impressive. The Bills shifted rookie first rounder Marcel Dareus to the nose tackle position in their 3-4 scheme, with seemingly stunning results. Dareus had 2.5 sacks himself, which contributed to a 9 sack performance overall by the Bills defense. Dwan Edwards also picked up 1.5 sacks. How much of that was down to the Bills new scheme and how much was down to the Redskins singular failure in recent weeks to protect their quarterback is up for debate.
John Beck threw two interceptions just to make the night even more miserable for Redskins fans as they were shut out. The Bills offense stepped up in this game, though doubtless their performance will be overshadowed by the D. Ryan Fitzpatrick was 21/27 for over 250 yards, while Fred Jackson carried 26 times for another 120 yards onto his season tally. He also added 74 yards off 3 receptions to cap a great day.
And the pass rush theme continues, as the Rams pulled off the shocker of the day against the Saints. What impressed me most was how much variety the Rams threw into their defense, sometimes going with a three man line, and sometimes bringing linebackers down to threaten the blitz. It made the front harder to read for the Saints line and created a plethora of one on one opportunities, not least for Chris Long who finished the game with 3 of his defense's six sacks.
On offense, while A.J. Feeley struggled still, Steven Jackson was back with a bang, running for 159 yards and two touchdowns off his 25 carries. It was the Saints offense that caught the most attention though. Not only did they let the sacks pile up as they struggled to handle a more confusing defense than expected from the Rams, but Brees also threw 2 interceptions and for large parts of the game was severely restricted in his throwing.
Another pass rush that came up big was the Giants. They, like the Rams, tried a bit of variety with some 3-4 fronts at times and also by bringing the blitz to compliment their base 4 down lineman fronts. The five sacks they put together as a unit had a big impact, as did Eli Manning's 31/45 for 349 yards and two touchdowns. It's still a little worrying though that a strong performance like this resulted in just 20 points, as the Giants went 1/3 in the red zone.
Possibly the biggest story of the Dolphins/Giants game turned out to be Reggie Bush. Bush had 15 carries for 103 yards, including some tough runs up the middle and a few tackle breaking runs. It was most unBush like and at least gives Dolphins fans a faint glimmer of hope.
But I want to go back to talking about pass rush and that means the Minnesota Vikings win over the Panthers. That seems like an odd thing to say because the Vikings only pulled out 3 sacks, but they could have had a lot more if it wasn't for the physical skills of Cam Newton, who displayed impressive strength and balance once more.
The reason why I'm so high on what the Vikings, Rams and Giants did this weekend is because they really pushed the mould of what an NFL 4-3 defense should do. Not since I think Buddy Ryan's Bear defenses have we seen 4-3 defenses that have blitzed as much and had as much success as the three teams mentioned above. It was refreshing to see them cast off the age old shackles of having to generate all their pressure with just the front four guys and trying something new.
This has really been the key to the success of 3-4 defenses. It's not that the structure of a 3-4 is inherently better for generating pressure, it's just that 3-4 teams tend to be more fond of the blitz and are more prepared to bring the heat from multiple directions. In fact most 3-4 defenses routinely bring five or more guys, something which it seems the 4-3 teams are just starting to figure out. I wouldn't be surprised, given how well these teams got on in Week 8, if we don't see more teams have a shot at it and start to see the record setting passing numbers start to slowly fall.
There was more to this game though than just the Vikings defense, not least the Panthers D which put up four sacks of it's own and got Christian Ponder moving. Ponder did ok this time, completing 18/28 for 236 yards and a touchdown, and he definitely looks like he's improving with each game. On the flip side, Cam Newton actually had a pretty good game, in the pocket and out of it, throwing 22/35 for 290 yards and 3 touchdowns, on top of running for 53 yards off 6 carries.
It was still the good and the bad though. The good was his passing, which looked more controlled this time, and his footwork on the drop back has measurably improved over the course of the season. But... he did fumble the ball twice and still has a knack for holding onto the ball a little. His offensive line isn't helping much. Like I said, without his movement skills (and perhaps some better Viking tackling at times) they'd have easily given up six or seven sacks total.
Like the Cardinals O-line did (six)! They simply couldn't handle Terrell Suggs and Paul Kruger. Kruger had two sacks coming off the edge and Suggs, while only picking up the one sack, was a menace in the Cardinals backfield all game. The Ravens offense still had it's struggles. 4/11 on third down, 3/6 in the red zone, and somehow Joe Flacco ended up passing another 51 times, hitting on 31 of those for 336 yards and a pick. Ray Rice had 18 carries for 63 yards and 3 short touchdowns, but I imagine the Ravens defense and Suggs in particular are still going to be looking at Cam Cameron nervously on future game days.
Onto Jacksonville at Houston and what can you really say about Blaine Gabbert? 10/30 for 97 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions? Yet apparently, if the main networks and sports news outlets are to be believed, he had a better day than Tim Tebow? This wouldn't have anything to do with the fact that everyone was touting Gabbert to be the best overall quarterback in the 2011 draft now would it? I'm sure that doesn't factor into it at all...
To be honest, Gabbert doesn't exactly have the worlds greatest O-line in front of him either, but at least his only gave up the one sack to Brooks Reed. Gabbert struggles to focus down field under pressure and shy's away from contact, even if he's half way through a throw. It's just not looking like there's anything there to build in, which at least exists in some of the other young quarterbacks who are not doing all that well (Dalton, Tebow, McCoy, Ponder).
The story for the Texans was more predictable. Arian Foster carried 33 times for 112 yards and a touchdown, as well as just the one catch for 12 yards this time. A standard of performance which is masking the story of Matt Schaub now that he doesn't have Andre Johnson on the field; that he's regressed back to being a 16/30 for 225 yard passer, compared to the giddy heights he's used to.
The story for division compatriots the Colts is much worse. Curtis Painter was asked to throw it 49 times against the Titans. Forty nine times? He managed 26 completions for 250 yards but another two interceptions brought more misery for him. I just find it amusing that given how well rookie running back Delone Carter played last week, that this week he got just 9 carries. Maybe it's because last week was so epically forgettable that the Colts also forgot about Carter?
The Titans might be forgetting about Chris Johnson. On one play, a power run right from the gun, Johnson cut back away from a clean whole right in to two Colts Linebackers. His 14 carries produced a mere 34 yards, a tally nearly doubled by Javon Ringer off the the same amount of carries. It didn't matter too much, as Matt Hasselbeck went 22/33 for 224 yards and what really should have been 2 touchdowns were it not for the red tape matter of a swing pass to Nate Washington just about travelling backwards a few inches, thus technically making it a pitch.
The most attention grabbing moment of that game for me though was the Colts defense, and the contrast between their "same old, same old" approach and that of teams like the Giants and Rams etc. While other people are pushing new ideas (or reviving old ideas?) the Colts are lumping along with a four man rush backed by either cover-2 or tampa-2, and looking for all the world like an inflexible block of concrete that has no ability to adapt while being picked apart by other teams.
Meanwhile in Pittsburgh it was another standard week for Ben Roethlisberger, which meant spending another 60 minutes getting bounced from pillar to post and generally having the shit kicked out of him, including two sacks for the impressive Patriot Andre Carter and four overall for that defense. Still Roethlisberger pressed on and actually finished 36/50 (yes, the Steelers throwing it 50 times) for 365 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception.
What was abnormal this week was Tom Brady only hitting 24/35 for just 198 yards, 2 touchdowns. That's some very unBrady like numbers right there. He was still staring down receivers so nothing new there, but a big flag that went up for me was how little mobility he appeared to have left. Not that Brady was ever exactly a sprinter trapped in a football uniform, but he's become very stiff legged and you could see that once defenders got penetration through the line, Brady was practically dead meat. That's a worrying sign.
Like Tavaris Jackson going 21/40 for 323 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception. The Seattle running game was non-existent so that's a non starter. It was bad enough for the Seahawks when Brandon Tate returned a punt for a touchdown, but the pick six by Thomas Howard was the final nail in Seattle's coffin. Andy Dalton had another pretty good day for the Bengals. 18/29, that's over 50%, for 168 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He and receiver A.J. Green appear to be developing a bit of that quarterback/receiver chemistry that leads to long careers for both, though it's early days yet.
Early days too for Jim Harbaugh, but if he keeps this up he's set for a long career. Even as a 49ers fan I'm still not fully ready to climb on the bandwagon and tell the driver to get up and go, but with the lead the 49ers have the NFC West is looking pretty one way this season. I'm just worried what will happen come playoff time. Not least because for all the praise, San Francisco still only beat the Browns by 10 points, including two early touchdowns, while ending up 2/5 in the red zone.
On the bright side, it's still fun watching teams trying to block Ahmad Brooks (2 sacks) using a running back. Hint; that has a tendency to go down like a fart joke at a Papal speech. Aldon Smith and Patrick Willis also added to their sack tally. In addition to the sacks, Colt McCoy fumbled the ball 3 times, recovering 2 and losing one. He did manage to complete 22/34 for 241 yards, a touchdown and a pick, but he can't seem to shake off some of the more troublesome aspects of his play.
A problem not unknown to Alex Smith, who was 15/24 with a touchdown but didn't get over 200 yards passing. At least he's stopped throwing interceptions for now. Again it was running back Frank Gore that picked up the pace, with 31 carries for 134 yards and a touchdown with some great runs off tackle on power plays. Funniest moment of the game is tied between Issac Sopogoa and Joe Staley, both of whom came out of the backfield as stand in fullbacks and caught passes of 18 and 17 yards respectively.
And where there's fun to be had, laughter to be made, the Cowboys can't be far away. Unless they're playing the Eagles who are coming off a bye week, at which point they get left in the distance and busted open for over 200 yards on the ground, including 185 and 2 touchdowns for LeSean McCoy off 30 carries, then give up another 279 yards and two touchdowns through the air.
All this despite DeMarcus Ware recording four sacks.
The Eagles fought back with four of their own, with two going to Jason Babin, but it was their offense that undeniably won the game, ripping the Cowboys to shreds at will. In fairness, Cowboys receiver Laurent Robinson has to be given some praise for his 5 catches, 103 yards and a touchdown, as does rookie Cowboys back DeMarco Murray for his 8 carries for 74 yards (longest; 26), but it was a small drop in the ocean.
Cowboys fans will probably be the most cut up about Murray. After his record setting game last week he basically set a pace this week to beat his own record (9.25 yards per carry this week), yet still couldn't get the touches. I understand that the Cowboys were down by 21 early in the second quarter, but Romo completed less than 50% of his passes as once again the Cowboys offense struggled. Murray is clearly the ultra hot hand right now, give him a chance to prove his worth.
And finally we come to the Monday Night game. Or should that be the Monday Night botch. Botched snaps, interceptions, fumbles, missed tackles, this was tantamount to a horror show worthy of Halloween. Though it did have it's plus moments. Just not a whole lot of them.
Phillip Rivers was up to his old tricks, throwing 26/41 for 369 yards, 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. The Chargers would end up 1/4 in the red zone and didn't score a touchdown till the fourth quarter. That has to be depressing for Chargers fans, to watch your team march beautifully down the field week after week, then week after week come up short when it really matters the most.
Oddly enough it was Matt Cassel who came up a treat. Kind of. 19/32 isn't great, but he strung completions together right when they were needed most, overcoming his 2 interceptions to lead an overtime drive, with the help of some determined running from Jackie Battle to set up the winning field goal. Yet while the Chiefs may have won the game, people watching that scrappy game ended up as losers.
So with all the results in that leaves my week 8 picks at a ghoulish 7-6, taking my season tally to 68-48. Definitely must try harder next week.
As for the rest of this week, my writing schedule at the minute will involve looking at a run the Eagles used a few times with great success against the Cowboys and then putting down on paper my random and probably quite idiotic idea for how I would try and build a rival league to the NFL. I just want that down on (electronic) paper, for my own sanity. I'm sure there was also something else that I said I was going to look at this week, but I'm buggered if I can remember what it was.
Till the next time, enjoy your Halloween (mercifully we only had one visit. Of a child, not a ghost) and I'll see you soon.
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