Friday, September 30, 2011

A word on Casey Matthews

This week it has emerged that the Eagles are removing rookie linebacker Casey Matthews from their starting line up in the hopes of shoring up what is a terrible run defense. While there is no definitive answer on who will replace him, the likely hood is that it will be another rookie linebacker, Brian Rolle. To be honest I don't think that will help much either. Rolle is quick, but he lacks strength and may just end up compounding the problem due to his lack of experience.

But enough with Rolle, I want to focus on Matthews because I basically said that I thought he was a first round quality linebacker. Despite his crappy season so far, I still do think he's of that caliber. Let me explain.

The trouble with the Eagles is that they've drafted a bunch of guys who either a) don't fit their scheme and/or b) they're using guys in positions they're not familiar with. Take Danny Watkins for example, their first round pick out of Baylor. Watkins was a tackle in college. A right tackle. Now the Eagles have been trying to using him at guard and are suddenly surprised that he's struggling?

Well yeah, because that's not his position. He's spent the whole of last season kick sliding out to take on defensive ends and outside linebackers, and now all of a sudden you want him to come inside, play against defensive tackles, and completely change his footwork? Why draft him in the first round, just to put him in a position he's not familiar with.

The same is true of Casey Matthews. Matthews was a 3-4 linebacker in College. He played mostly in the middle and he displayed two traits that really stood out - his pass coverage and his pass rushing. If there was one deficiency he had in his game, it's that he wasn't all that great at stopping the run.

So who drafts him? Any one of the many 3-4 teams in the league? No. The Eagles do. The same Eagles who run a 4-3 defense that doesn't fit Matthews (or vice versa). But why is this so? Hopefully I'm going to demonstrate.

You see in a 3-4 defense, the linebackers are not the primary run stoppers. The Nose Tackle and the two ends are. That's why teams in the NFL recruit large guys with great athletic ability (at least in a small space) to play Nose, because a guy like that is tough to shift and has the raw talent to make plays up the middle. The ends also play a key role, controlling the gaps between the offensive guards and tackles, as well as the gaps outside of those offensive tackles.

For that reason, this is generally what we call a 'two gap' scheme. The picture below should help give you a better illustration of what I'm talking about:



Hopefully you can see above - as indicated by the solid black arrows - that the two ends and the Nose are each responsible for two gaps in the running game. This requires them to play the offensive man over them 'heads-up', keeping their shoulders parallel with the line of scrimmage and putting themselves in a position where they could make the tackle to either side of the their man. The strong side line backer has the gap outside the tight end.

What this means from the perspective of the remaining linebackers, is that now they just have to clean up behind their D-line. The line is really expected to make the plays on the back and stuff the run. The linebackers are there more for support as far as the running game is concerned. They track back and forth behind the line, using their freedom of movement to follow the back and make the tackle if he manages to get through the line.

Really though, that's not a a huge priority. As good as some guys like Ray Rice and Patrick Willis are against the run, linebackers in a 3-4 scheme are mainly tasked as pass defenders and pass rushers, the two things that Casey Matthews did really well in College.

The Eagles however run a 4-3 scheme. The 4-3 scheme is a 'one-gap' defense. Basically that means that each of the four down linemen and each of the three linebackers has just one 'gap' (between the offensive linemen) that is exclusively theirs to stuff against the run. In the diagram below you'll see the solid dark lines representing the defensive linemen's responsibility, and the dotted lines representing the linebackers responsibility.



The trouble with this scheme - at least from the perspective of someone like Matthews - is that he can't free roam like he used to in College. He has to be disciplined. He is expected to be a primary run defender, just like everyone else in that front seven. It's a complete shift away from what he spent four years doing in college.

More to the point, he doesn't get to pass rush anymore. That was the thing he really excelled at in College, yet now he doesn't get a sniff. That's what happens to linebackers in 4-3 schemes. They're mainly just pass defenders and run stoppers, while most of the pass rushing work is done by the front four down linemen. So not only is Casey being forced to do the one thing he struggled most with in College, but he's also being denied the opportunity to do the one thing that he was really, really good at.

Do I blame Matthews? No. It was just poor drafting by the Eagles. Player and scheme in perfect disharmony. And while yes, you can point the finger at Matthews and say that he's not playing very well against the run, I'm rather more inclined to point the finger at Juan Castillo (the Eagles defensive coordinator) and his staff. The main issue they have with Matthews is that he's just not very 'gap disciplined', that is, he doesn't fill his assigned gap in the offensive line, he just kind of runs laterally across the defense looking to clean up and make the play, as he did in college.

Now that issue to me is on the coaches. You can watch the film, you can see he's not doing it right. So teach him! Isn't teaching supposed to be the essence of coaching? So why haven't the Eagles pulled Matthews to one side and said "hey kid, that gap between the guard and the tackle (or center and guard), that's yours. Don't worry about what everyone else is doing, you fill that gap. If the running back comes to you, make the tackle. If he goes somewhere else that's someone else's problem. Just pursue..." etc, etc.

I still think Matthews has potential. He might have to leave the Eagles to realise it, but I still think he can be a great player one day. All he needs is the right coaching and a decent chance to show what he can do.

Thursday, September 29, 2011

2011 Week 3 round up

And so here we are, with Week 3 done, me lagging behind the rest of the world, and finally time to take a look at my picks and pick up some of the important threads from a great week of action. Starting with;

Redskins @ Cowboys
A field goal feast in Texas. Nine field goals between them and ironically the one touchdown scored was by the losing team. I'm not even sure how the Redskins lost this game. The Cowboys were destroying themselves with bad snaps, throwing away plays and making their own lives difficult. And that's before we get onto the fact that the Cowboys pass protection was horrendous. Just abject. The sole bright spot for the Cowboys was that fact that Felix Jones finally started to make an impact on the ground. Oh, and they won, which I guess was a plus point!

Patriots @ Bills
Did err, someone order a shootout? Because that's what we got. The resulting win has put the Bills first place atop the AFC East, ahead of the highly rated Patriots and ahead of Rex Ryans apparently Super Bowl worthy (according to him at least) Jets. What a sickening blow it must have been for Brady though, throwing for 387 yards and four touchdowns, only to lose the game. But then that's what happens when you throw four interceptions. Two were tipped, but two of those picks showed how well the Bills pass coverage is coming along.

Jaguars @ Panthers
What can I say? In rainfall probably more appropriate for the Amazon rainforest, at least the cheerleaders looked exceptionally hot, because neither of the quarterbacks did. Gabbert was 12/21, threw an interception, was sacked for a safety and fumbled the ball 3 times. This is the best quarterback in the 2011 draft, according to just about every professional pundit (none of my top four have had a regular season snap yet). Netwon was 18/34, mainly throwing dump offs this time around, but at least he didn't throw any interceptions for a change and managed to actually win the game. Jaguars back Maurice Jones-Drew has to be gutted that his 24 carries for 122 yards didn't earn his team a better result.

Texans @ Saints
A fourth quarter explosion for the Saints put the Texans away, but it's not like Houston didn't have its chances; 1/5 in the Red zone? They were putting up points and yards, but if you get into the red zone that many times against a team like the Saints then you have to put some points on the board and make it count, especially when your defense has managed to pick off Drew Brees twice. Still a big game for passing yardage with Brees hitting 370 yards and Schaub 373.

Dolphins @ Browns
A big win for Colt McCoy on a day when neither he nor his O-line played all that well (he was 19/39). Chad Henne was a little more efficient for the Dolphins (19/29) and rookie running back Daniel Thomas almost reached 100 yards on the ground, but Miami just couldn't make enough of it. The Browns defense were the big winners, keeping their team in the game with 5 sacks, a pick and a forced fumble, including 1.5 sacks each for defensive end Jayme Mitchell and defensive tackle Ahtyba Rubin.

49ers @ Bengals
It was a game of defense. Or rather, a game of horrible offensive play. In fact, perhaps "offensive" sums it up quite nicely. 49ers; 5/15 on third down. The Bengals; 1/10 on third down. One of ten? Andy Dalton threw another two interceptions, but at least Alex Smith managed to rustle up 20/30, if for only 201 yards and no touchdowns. Despite rookie 49ers running back Kendall Hunter getting on the scoresheet, the 49ers offensive line was horrid. The Bengals D had 5 sacks, including two for defensive end Jonathan Fanene, as well as three forced fumbles as a unit. The 49ers D at least looks marginally better on the back end now, with Carlos Rogers and Reggie Smith looking like not bad pick ups.

Giants @ Eagles
Remember Victor Cruz? You should do. He hit it big time in last years pre-season, looked like a complete beast at wide receiver... and then disappeared into obscurity during the regular season. Well he finally got his shot and he took it with both hands, which is highly recommended for a wide receiver; 3 catches, 110 yards and 2 touchdowns. Not a bad days work. Even Eli Manning looked good; 16/23, 254 yards and 4 touchdowns. The Eagles looked like crap in comparison. Mike Vick threw a pick and managed to add another 3 fumbles to his tally. What is that now, six in two games? Eventually Vick left the field through injury and Mike Kafka came on to throw two more interceptions. They even ran that dive/toss play that I diagrammed the other day, in the red zone again. This time it went a little better because they didn't fumble it away, but they still couldn't block it properly and lost yards. Oh, and Jason Pierre-Paul put another two sacks on his tab for the year. And to think I wrote him off as a rookie....

Lions @ Vikings
It wouldn't be the 2011 season without the Vikings blowing a first half lead. 20-0 at half time and you have to think the game is in the bag. Even the Vikings with their erroneous ways couldn't shit that lead away right? Wrong! First half for Adrian Peterson; 12 carries, 73 yards and a touchdown. Second half; 5 carries, 5 yards. I mean seriously? When you hear TV talking heads going on about running the football, this is one of the prime things they're talking about. You have the lead, run it, burn time off the clock. Make the defense desperate, make them throw, make them one dimensional. Oh, and there's the small matter that your best player is Adrian Peterson. That's important to. Stupid as hell. The defense even produced five sacks, including three for Mr. Boom and Bust himself, Jared Allen. But Matthew Stafford would not be denied his 32/46 for 378 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jason Hanson would not be denied his game winning 32 yard kick in overtime.

Broncos @ Titans
Titans playing with a bit of fire in their belly! Of course the Broncos had the ball on the two yard line at one point and - while ahead 14-10 - decided to go for it on fourth down instead of taking the easy field goal. That went well. If by well you mean, badly. I never understand that kind of decision. Ok I get it, you're jealous that Bill Belichick gets all the credit for being a risk taker. Guess what? Belichick also gets a lot of shit for making stupid decisions just to prove a point. And yeah I know, the stat geeks have poured honey in your ear and told you that you should be going for it on fourth down more, because a team much better than you at running the ball in short yardage has done so successfully. Well guess what? You're not a running team, and just because some team or the other has completed 6/10 on fourth downs, usually one yard or less, doesn't mean you should as well. Because you suck John Fox. In the same way that Chris Johnson has this year. Let's put it this way, Chris Johnson had 21 yards on 13 carries. The punter, Brett Kern, who runs like he's just had a hernia operation, picked up 21 yards on 1 carry, then the snap was botched and he managed to fake out an edge rusher. That's where Chris Johnson is right now this season.

Jets @ Raiders
You know the league is getting too pass orientated with its rules when it lets Mark Sanchez pick up 369 yards! He was actually pretty good for a change, which is why the kid is so frustrating, because he flashes such great potential at times, but just never quite seems to fulfill it. Old boy LaDanian Tomlinson isn't done showing off his skills either, catching 5 passes for 116 yards and a touchdown. But the dya belonged to the Raiders, their defense that produced four sacks (including two for defensive end Jarvis Moss), their O-line which blocked for four rushing touchdowns and kept the Jets down to just one sack, and Darren McFadden; 19 carries for 171 yards and 2 touchdowns. The guy has speed in buckets, he's strong, he makes great reads and he is tearing teams apart right now. It's an odd thing to say but... the Raiders are looking really good right now!

Ravens @ Rams
It wasn't even close. Ray Rice had 81 yards off 9 carries. Ricky Williams had 42 yards off 5 carries. The Rams managed two sacks, but Flacco was still able to get off 48 passes, of which he completed 27 for three touchdowns. Every single one of those scores fell to rookie receiver Torrey Smith, who scored three touchdowns on his first three passes. Here's what I said about Smith pre-draft; "Probably my favourite receiver in the 2011 draft. Yeah I know, Torrey Smith? But he was consistently very good from what I saw. In particular I thought his positioning, working the defenders to get over the top of them on deep passes, was excellent". Now Smith has shown the world why I was so glowing about him. What I'm a little concerned about though looking at the Ravens is this; you went up 21-0 in the first quarter, but you still threw the ball 48 times? Hello, Ray Rice is your running back. He happens to be pretty good. Or they could have give Ricky Williams a heavy run around, or let rookie Anthony Allen take some knocks. I'd be a little worried about that decision making process if I were a Ravens fan. If I were a Rams fan, I'd just be flat out worried about everything.

Chiefs @ Chargers
The box score belies the fact that the Chiefs came within about 8 yards of kicking a game tying field goal. But Matt Cassel - God love him (or perhaps hates him?) - threw a horrible pick to Eric Weddle on an attempted screen pass to literally throw the game away. Not that Phillip Rivers hadn't already tried that himself, throwing 24/38 for 266 yards, zero touchdowns and two interceptions (including one to safety Kendrick Lewis, from last years rookie watch list), as well as a fumble. It was a scrappy game in all honesty, but running back Ryan Matthews (also from last years watch list) came through with 98 yards and 2 touchdowns for the Chargers.

Packers @ Bears
Somehow the Bears only managed to give up 3 sacks this time, despite the Bears persisting with their annoying habit of putting Cutler under center with an empty backfield. He still threw two picks, both to Morgan Burnett who is quietly having a great season so far. Cutler finished 21/37 for 302 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Aaron Rodgers though, still looking good. 28/38, 297 yards, 3 touchdowns and one pick. All three touchdowns were caught by fourth year tight end Jermicheal Finley. Ryan Grant also had a great day for the Pack, with 17 carries for 92 yards.

Cardinals @ Seahawks
The Seahawks win a game! God the NFC West looks more horrible than usual this year. Three sacks for the defense. Two picks as well, including one for safety Kam Chancellor (last years rookie watch list). Tavaris Jackson and Kevin Kolb both looked horrible still. 2.5 sacks for Cardinals defensive tackle Calais Campbell was probably the highlight of the game.

Falcons @ Buccaneers
It's official; the Falcons O-line is horrendous in 2011. They just look like ass. They gave up four sacks (including one to 2010 7th round linebacker Dekoda Watson and one to defensive tackle Brian Price, both on last years watch list) and just generally got pushed around. Matt Ryan was 26/47 for 330 yards, 1 touchdown and one interception, though a number of big drops from his receivers didn't help the cause. Josh Freeman wasn't exactly playing lights out either, throwing no touchdowns but two interceptions. His rushing touchdown and the kicking of Connor Barth were just enough though in the end.

Steelers @ Colts
My God this was an ass game if you're a fan of offensive football. The Steelers had to run a pick play, which are supposed to be illegal, to get Mike Wallace open enough for a touchdown. Luckily I'm a defensive fan, or at least I like to see defenses given the opportunity to compete and they certainly did in this one. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis combined for 3 sacks and two forced fumbles. Second year linebacker Pat Angerer (not on last years watch list) had 11 tackles, 9 assists. Meanwhile Troy Polamalu was busy scaring the shit out of Curtis Painter when Kerry Collins was finally pulled from the game, even though Polamalu's stat sheet only records two tackles. Frankly I think the Steelers were lucky. A combination of their excellent defense and a completely woeful Colts offense won this game. Any more performances like this and the Steelers will be lucky to finish the season with a winning record.

So that's that for another week. Maybe Thursday night, maybe Friday I want to dig out the Powerpoint slides again and look at run defense, with a view to explaining why Casey Matthews is doing so poorly after being drafted by the wrong kind of team.

Picks wise I was a rotten 6-10 this week, which takes my season tally to 26-22. All that hard work from last week has been wiped off. Ah well. At least my draft picks, if that's what you can call them, from 2010 and 2011 are really starting to come good now.

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Update 09/28/11

Time has been short. Very short. I've barely had a chance to catch up with some of the action I missed and so I'll probably wait till tomorrow to do what will probably be a much abbreviated recap of the weekends action.

And my picks sucked.

Sunday, September 25, 2011

2011 Season; Week 3 picks

Urgh. Time to stick my neck (Reputation? ... What do you mean "what reputation?"?) on the line again with my week 3 picks. Starting with...

Patriots @ Bills
Oh boy. That's a kicker to start with. Two teams that are off to flying starts, literally, as they sling the ball all over the shop in pursuit of victory. I was actually watching the Pats/Dolphins game the other day, or at least the offensive snaps for the Patriots, and noticed something I've never noticed before about Tom Brady; the guy stares his receivers down like nothing you've ever seen before. He doesn't even bother to make it subtle. He must pick a side pre-snap and just work that one side of the field. On the odd occasion that he does come back to the opposite side of the field, he invariably throws the ball incomplete.

Do I think the Bills are smart enough/talented enough to exploit this? Nope. In fact I think their entire defense is ill prepared for an attack as diverse as the Patriots. They just don't have the pass rush or coverage men to cope. The Patriots on the other hand do have a chance of slowing down the Bills Offense, so in what still might prove to be a shootout, I think the Patriots have the slight upper hand. Patriots win.

Jaguars @ Panthers
Great. Two rookie quarterbacks who I hate, bundled together in one game. Actually, hate is a strong word. I only dislike Cam Newton (As a quarterback. He seems like a jovial kind of guy when not playing). Question is, who do I think will stink it up more? I say Gabbert! The Panthers don't exactly have a burning hot pass rush, but then if there is one thing that people should have taken away from Gabberts college tape it's that he only needs a three man rush - even one that doesn't look remotely like it will get home - to spook him.

Newton at least is a slight bit more solid in the pocket. I say that tentatively, because despite the huge numbers he's racked up and the effusive praise he's received in the media, I still don't see a pocket passer. I see a guy who moves around a lot and occasionally steps into some wild throws. Now I could be wrong, it might just be that his throwing style is a little... shall we say 'unique'? To me though he looks very much like a guy who just lofts the ball up there and then thanks God when someone in a Panthers jersey comes down with it.

Unlike the multiple picks from his last game which everyone seems to be conveniently glossing over. Whatever. The Panthers under Newton suck slightly less than the Gabbert lead Jaguars (I see they gave Luke McCown a fair crack at the whip; a whole two games). So Panthers win.

49ers @ Bengals
Somehow the 49ers have managed to win one game and take another to over time. As a 49ers fan part of me is pleased. But then part of me thinks this is just the 49ers building peoples hopes, so they can mercilessly crush them again in due course. The beginning of that road could be here.

The Bengals are by no means hot contenders for the playoffs. They don't need to be though. They're a semi coherent football team, with some good players and a quarterback who is about average. That's basically all you need to beat the 49ers these days. Bengals win.

Dolphins @ Browns
Ah. Now. This, this is a conundrum game. The Browns and the Dolphins. Two teams who fit the tag 'under achieving', nicely. Colt McCoy is better than he's otherwise shown this season. And so is Chad Henne. Neither offense seems to be able to get going though (pounding the Colts in the fourth quarter doesn't count), for whatever reasons.

The trouble is that neither defense has stepped up either. The Dolphins especially are failing to live up to expectations, with Cameron Wake falling well below the standard of performance he set for himself last year. And what of Karlos Dansby? Or Koa Misi? Will Allen? Yeremiah Bell? Names that cropped up often last year but have shrunk into the background in 2011.

All things considered, I'm still leaning towards Miami. I just think they have a little more to bring to the game, in terms of the potential of both their units. It's a tough choice and I'm really not all that confident, but I say Dolphins win.

Lions @ Vikings
I'm not even entertaining this one. Matthew Stafford has been really sharp, the Lions are starting to actually get something out of Jahvid Best, and the front four on defense is helping to ease the pressure off the secondary. The Vikings are faltering though. While Adrian Peterson is in his usual "angry running" form, Donovan McNabb is in his usual, highly erratic "pitching the ball wildly into the floor or stands" form. Lions win.

Texans @ Saints
Jeez, loving all the easy picks today...

Texans and Saints huh. Two real good offenses, backed by defenses that are a little up in the air still. The Saints have a very creative mind in Gregg Williams running the show, but physically they don't have the talent just yet. The Texans also have a creative coordinator in Wade Phillips, while also possessing some really talented and promising players.

I think for me the critical factor is how well that Texans offense plays inside the Superdome with all the noise and stuff going on. They'll need to keep up the pace, even as good as their defense is. I expect to see points on the board for both teams, though it may be more in the 20's than 30's. On balance I think the Texans just have the edge. Texans win.

Giants @ Eagles
Rivalry game anyone? For me this boils down to one simple question; how many mistakes will Mike Vick make. Because I know the Giants will make some. They'll fuck something up, they always do. If Mike Vick can just keep it together and avoid the turnover fest that was last weeks Eagles/Falcons game, then the Eagles should wrap this one up. I just don't think the Giants are playing up to their abilities right now, more so on defense than anywhere else. Eagles win.

Broncos @ Titans
Blurgh! Broncos and Titans? This is difficult because while the Titans have had an ok start, I'm still not totally convinced that they're ready to roll just yet. Chris Johnson is playing like he doesn't care anymore, missing holes and just ploughing into the pile every time. Matt Hasselbeck is getting to grips with the offense, but whether he's good enough to offset the lacklustre running game week in and week out is up for debate. The defense has found some of its old form, but hasn't really faced a big challenge through the air yet.

Meanwhile the Broncos remain and enigma. They've put up 44 points on offense and conceded 45 in their two games so far, losing one and winning one by just 3 and 2 points respectively. They got handled roughly by the Raiders rushing attack, then handled the Bengals a little better. They seem to be like a bus teetering back and forth over a precipice; they could either finish on safe ground or they could fall off a cliff. I think this time they teeter back on to safe ground. Broncos win.

Jets @ Raiders
Last time this game came up the Jets set a record for the most rushing yards... in a losing effort. Since then the Jets have moved on. Rex Ryan still likes to talk about "ground and pound", but these days that seems to just be a metaphor for comparing his teams toughness to that of an MMA fighter, because this team certainly doesn't ground and pound anyone anymore. They've climbed into bed with Mark "Sanchise" Sanchez, and now they're riding the passing game express.

Which to be fair, suits them better. It's a better use of their skilled receiver corps and it helps that they have a tough defense that seems to be gradually climbing up through the gears as the weeks start to trundle by. It's more than the Raiders have, let's put it that way. Yes, the Raiders offense has been quite prolific so far, but they simply haven't faced anything like the Jets D as yet. They will on Sunday afternoon and I think they'll get a sharp awakening. Jets win.

Chiefs @ Chargers
Last year the Chiefs caught a few breaks in the kicking game and found a way to beat the Chargers. This year I'll be dumbfounded if they can do the same. The Chiefs basically have Thomas Jones on offense and a few players up front on defense like Tamba Hali and Derrick Johnson. But nothing more. Matt Cassel is not the answer and the Chiefs are in a real tight spot. The Chargers still have some kinks that they need to work out of their system, but they should still walk this. Chargers win.

Ravens @ Rams
Ravens offense, meet the Rams D. Rams offense, meet the Ravens D. And meet they shall tomorrow afternoon, where I can't look past the Ravens. I'm not a Joe Flacco fan, but I do like Ray Rice and I do like that Ravens defense to bring the heat on Sam Bradford. Without Steven Jackson he has no support really in the running game and I just think the Ravens D will zero in on Bradford mercilessly. Ravens win.

Packers @ Bears
Strap on your helmets, pull your pants and your socks up, then hold on for the ride as the Packers take on the Bears. This is a rivalry game if ever there was one, except this time around there is recent history lurking to help stoke the flames. This is a rematch of last years NFC Championship game and a chance for the Bears to prove that they can rumble with the biggest and baddest teams in the league, including the previous champions.

They wont though. I don't mean to be a pessimist, but the Bears are not as good as last year made them out to be. They have a pass rush, when it decides to show up, and they have some players dotted around the defense who occasionally step up and make plays. The consistency isn't there though and that's before we even get to the offense.

Jay Cutler can make plays. "Can" being the operative word, instead of "does". His receiving corps still needs work and as this is a Mike Martz team you can fully expect to not see enough of Matt Forte and the ground game.

Compare and contrast with a Packers team that is practically over flowing with offensive playmakers and has more than enough quality on defense to contain the Bears, what with Clay Matthews and company upfront rushing that terrible Bears line, while a broadly good secondary pins down his receivers. On that note, Packers win.

Cardinals @ Seahawks
This might just be the worst game this week. And the Seahawks might just be the worst team in the NFL right now. At least the Cardinals have some promise. Kevin Kolb has talent. He has some decent players around him. His defense can just about make the odd play. All of which is more than the Seahawks have. Cardinals win.

Falcons @ Buccaneers
This could be a tough one right here. Both teams have had success, but both have demonstrated weaknesses along the way. For the Falcons it's predominantly been their O-line, which hasn't really shaped up as well as some might have hoped before the regular season began, while the Buccaneers D is still struggling despite a raft of high round picks spent up front.

Personally I think I favour the Falcons a little more in this one. I don't think the Buccaneers really have the defensive clout to exploit the Falcons weak line, while the Falcons pass rush does have the players to get after Buc's QB Josh Freeman and give him a tough ride. Falcons win.

Steelers @ Colts
Like stealing sand from a beach; often you can do it without even having to try. Steelers win.

Redskins @ Cowboys
I hate picking games like this, because much depends on the injury status of certain players. We know Miles Austin will miss the game, but what about Tony Romo and Dez Bryant? If they miss the game, then the Cowboys are in for a rough night. If they make it, then they have a decent chance.

I suppose I should commit one way or the other though so I'm going with... the Redskins. This is not a confident pick and if it collapses around my ears then so be it, but I just think that even if Romo plays then you still have the possibility of the Redskins pass rush making a meal out of him. That part of their defensive unit is really heating up and by suppressing the oppositions passing game, it gives Rex Grossman a chance to make plays to win games. Which is what I think will happen here. Redskins win.

Saturday, September 24, 2011

Dive/Toss play

So I just have time to throw this up before I must depart to the land of sheep. No, not Wales. I mean going to sleep. Ok this is going all kinds of wrong. Let's just get to the point.

One play in particular intrigued me during the Eagles/Falcons game last Sunday night and I want to throw it out there using my new diagram drawing skills (uh huh, stop laughing). The reason it caught my eye is because it shows that the old styles of football never really seem to die. They just disappear and then reappear every now and again.

The play in question is a fake toss into a dive play, from a split backs formation, that harks back to the sort of seventies and eighties style of football. Here's the picture;




And no, I still haven't figured out to stop Blogger from blurring the ass out of the image. But there you go. I even coloured the offense in a shade of green to represent the Eagles... albeit in a shade of green not entirely representative of the Eagles uniforms. I've also omitted the three wide receivers and the corners covering them, because this is a running play and receivers not named Heinz Ward never seem to block these days anyway.

What you can see is the center and left guard doubling down on one of the defensive tackles. The Left tackle is supposed to pull and trap block the other defensive tackle. The right guard pulls to help influence the defense and then takes the end, or if he pushes too far upfield then he ignores him and goes for the "S" backer. The right offensive tackle comes up and then cuts inside to wall off the mike linebacker. Now it is a simple matter for the quarterback to pivot out, fake the toss to the running back on the right who immediately darts outward at the snap, before actually handing off to the left back, marked in the image with a blue line.

It's a simple yet cunning play, reminiscent of a bygone era, right down to the formation. What always makes me chuckle as well (being the sad bastard that I am) is that this is precisely the kind of play teams like the Steelers would use, only for them to be described as a "downhill, smash mouth, power football" team. Except this play is anything but smash mouth. It's a finesse play, based on angles.

You have a double team. You have a tackle pulling to trap one of the defensive tackles. You have a guard pulling to trap an end. You have another tackle heading upfield to blindside the poor "Mike" backer. This is not grinding it out on the ground football. This is a play that involves deception, quick feet, precision practice and great technique. It is the complete opposite of "ground and pound" as far as the running game is concerned.

And that's why I love this kind of play so much. It speaks of the versatility of the old split back sets. And it demonstrates the creativity, tactics and finesse that a running game can possess. A lot of people associate running the football with being an inferior method of moving the ball. They consider it a method for the dumb knuckle heads of the footballing world, compared to the skill and artistry of the passing game. I believe those people simply don't understand the running game and the true depth that it offers.

Of course we'll gloss over the fact for now that the left tackle missed his block, and as a result Falcons defensive tackle Peria Jerry got a clean hit on Vick who then fumbled the ball away...

Hey, there are good running games and there are bad running games. Then there's the Eagles.

On a quick note, you're more likely to see the play above run out of the I-formation in the modern NFL and indeed it has been making a strong comeback in recent years.

On another quick note, I'll be back Saturday night with my picks for the weekend.

Thursday, September 22, 2011

Protecting the quarterback in empty sets

Right. I have finally beaten Microsoft's insistence on making everything about their products as unintuitive as humanly possible and figured out how to export my funny little diagrams made in PowerPoint onto the blog, although at the minute the process of enlarging those images makes them look they were made using a BBC basic, but one step at a time and all that.

So the first subject that I've decided to turn my arty hand to (stop laughing) is the Chicago Bears and their troubles with keeping Jay Cutler upright. The specific example I want to look at is notable because a lot of teams in the NFL do this and it drives me insane.

As the league as a whole expands its offensive wings, we're seeing a much greater rise in empty sets - where the quarterback is left alone in the backfield and five receivers are set out wide to run routes - during the course of normal play (outside of the final two minutes for example). It's something that those who watch College ball will be entirely familiar with (a bit more on this, sort of, later).

Now, empty sets are not what draws my ire. What annoys me is that the whole point of setting up with an empty set is to spread the defense out, make them extend their lines over the whole field, and hopefully make the quarterbacks reads a little easier.

Why then do teams - like the Bears - insist on lining up receivers in the slot?

There are two important things that happen when the offense does this. First of all, they somewhat compact the defense in again, dragging defenders towards the middle of the field. Secondly, without any backs in the back field to help the O-line with blocking, it leaves the quarterback exposed to blitzes off the edge. Even worse - and the Bears are probably the most heinous perpetrators of this crime - if you're in an empty set then chances are you're not going to run the ball unless it's a designed QB draw or some kind of sweep play with jet motion from a receiver (think the Dolphins and their 'Wildcat' package), so why in the name of God would you line up in an empty set with the QB under center?

It's like the Bears are trying to find an excuse to put Jay Cutler put on IR. In the diagram below I've tried to demonstrate where the problem lies. I've taken the liberty of cutting the offensive line in half, which as far as the Bears are concerned isn't entirely a bad thing. "N" represents a Nickel back lined up over the slot receiver. For the benefit of easy diagram drawing I've assumed that the other three receivers are on the other side of the field, that we have a 3 man line with two backers (only one shown) and I've shifted the safety over more than he likely would be against an empty set (unless the defensive coordinator felt the two receivers on the weak side to be more of a threat than the three on the other side).



As you can see, having a receiver that close to the formation provides the defense with an opportunity to blitz the Nickel defender (or whomever that may be over the slot receiver). With the defender that close, and with the quarterback under center, it gives the blitzing player a great chance to get the sack, or at the very least get in the quarterbacks face and force him to make a pressure throw of his back foot.

With an end over the tackle who can rush outside, you make it very difficult for the offensive line to pick the blitz up, requiring either the guard to drop back and come outside, or for the tackle and guard to open out, with the tackle taking the Nickel and the guard taking the end. Of course that would then leave a vulnerability to a blitz from the Will backer....

Now the best solution to a blitz from a secondary player such as this is to have the quarterback throw the ball "hot", that is as soon as he sees the blitz he looks to the receiver who was originally being covered, who should have also identified the blitz and turned immediately to look at the quarterback. The problem in this case is that the close proximity of the receiver shortens the path of the blitzing player to the quarterback. I would guess that few quarterbacks could take any more than about three steps back before that blitzer gets home.

That doesn't leave a whole lot of time for the quarterback to recognise what is happening and then make the throw. Worse, the Will linebacker is in such a position that he can take a step forward to hold the guard momentarily, then drop off to cover the receiver, anticipating the quarterbacks decision to throw "hot".

Alternatively the Will backer can blitz as well, presenting three rushers for the guard and tackle to deal with - which is obviously a bad numbers mismatch (over load blitz). All you need now is for the safety to come flying downhill to cover the potential for the "hot" throw and your quarterback is in a bad spot. If he doesn't throw it, he's going to get hit. There is no way that an unblocked defender is going to take so long to get home that the quarterback will be able to leisurely sit back and wait for his receiver to get open downfield (as Cutler found out Sunday).

The best solution, in my opinion, is to simply not put your quarterback in that position in the first place. Don't go to an empty set and then line up a receiver just a few yards outside the tackle. And put the QB in the gun. You're not going to be running the ball anywhere unless your QB is carrying it, so put him back somewhere safe where he can read the field properly.



In the above diagram we can see that now the Nickel defender has a much greater distance to cover. With the Quarterback already 5 yards back in the gun, he's likely to end up as much as 9-10 yards deep when he hits the top of his drop. Coupled with the greater horizontal separation from the blitzing secondary player, it gives him much more time to read the field and make his throw.

Importantly, if the Will linebacker or the Free safety is going to be taking over in man to man coverage, the sheer width of that inside receivers alignment means that they would have no hope of making it across without cheating pre-snap, giving the quarterback a much clearer read of what was coming, as well as making the use of a "hot" route a lot more viable.

So there you go. That's a pet peeve of mine. If you're going empty, get those receivers away from the quarterback and stop giving teams an opportunity to smash your QB around. Get him back in the gun and let him read the field properly. That goes double for you Mike Martz and the Bears!

I hoped you enjoyed the introduction of the diagrams. Now that I've finally figured this stuff out I plan to make much more use of it. Hopefully that will continue later this week with a diagram of a running play from the Eagles game which caught my eye, because it harked back to the heyday of the split backs sets in the 70' and 80's, when pass and run combined so gloriously (for some teams anyway).

Ohh, I almost forgot!

I mentioned earlier about College football. Now one of the great pains of living in the UK from the perspective of a football fan is that watching lots of College ball is basically out of the question, but I recently realised ESPN has highlights so I can keep up.

Now when I first clicked on one of the games and went to the highlights I was dreading what I might find. You have to understand that my only comparable experience of watching such highlights online has been on NFL.com, an experience that can best be described as being slightly more painful, annoying and frustrating than having a loose tooth.

So there was the first game, there was the first highlight. I hovered my mouse over it in trepidation. I took a deep breath, expecting the worst. Then I clicked that fateful left mouse button. And the result was almost unimaginable.

It was.... good. It was really good.

First thing I noticed - no advert. None. If this was NFL.com then the 40 second clip would have been proceeded by a 30 second advert for NFL Game pass, a product which I can only imagine (judging by the normal standards of NFL.com's content delivery) would be an extreme waste of money. Then once the clip started it loaded no problems. None. No delays, no glitches, no picture freezing while the video skipped backwards. Nothing. Just normal video delivery, you know, the same thing you would expect of every video content delivery system in the world, except NFL.com.

I could click backwards and forwards to certain points and the video would load and play instantly, without me having to wait ten seconds while the video tried to figure why anyone would be insane enough to want to choose a certain section of the video that they wanted to watch again.

There was no auto play shoving a video (and an advert) down my throat before I was ready to watch, or deciding for me what video it was that I'd chosen to log on and view. There was no continuous play, deciding for me that once I'd watched one video I would instantly want to watch the next one in the list, regardless of whether its content interested me or not.

And the sheer number of highlights was amazing. Well, compared to NFL.com anyway. 19-25 videos per game, covering all scoring plays, some of the big runs and passes, and what's this?

Sacks! Interceptions!

They have video clips dedicated to defensive plays! Are they insane?! If the NFL were to be believed, then there would be nobody on the planet who might be interested in something as uncouth and unworthy as defensive plays. But as someone who loves seeing defenses get air time, I was very heartened to see this.

Now I know, I know, not a lot of people like ESPN. I've been critical on here about them in the past. But sometimes you just have to take your hat off and applaud good work. This is such a case.

ESPN's College highlight delivery service is - frankly- exceptional when compared to NFL.com. It represents the polar opposite, righting all the wrongs of the NFL's service. If only - if freaking only - the NFL would learn from this, then I would be delighted. Of course ESPN has picked up additional rights to show NFL highlights now, which if they deliver them as well as they do College ball, will surely spell the beginning of the end for NFL.com.

I live in hope. Goodnight.

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

2011 Week 2 round up

A wild week two to the NFL season is done, so let's have a look back at some of the key points of the action.

Raiders @ Bills
Talk about a shootout! Right up until the last second it was there for the taking, with Da'Norris Searcy making a last gasp interception in the end zone (more on this later) to deny the Raiders the win. Jason Campbell threw for over 300 yards. Ryan Fitzpatrick had over 250 yards (but also just 28/46). Both ground games were heating up, with Bills back Fred Jackson in particular carrying for over 100 yards and two touchdowns off just 15 carries. Darren McFadden had 20 carries for 72 yards and a TD, plus 7 catches for another 71 yards and a second TD.

The big highlight for the Raiders was rookie receiver Denarius Moore, who caught 5 passes for 146 yards and a touchdown, including some really tough catches. After a run of bad receiver picks by the Raiders, Moore, combined with second year receiver Jacoby Ford (when he returns from injury) could be just the ticket that the Raiders offense is looking for.

Defensively the Raiders back end had its moments, but they just couldn't seem to generate any pressure up front. The Bills had similar problems and they're tackling in particular was a big worry.

Chiefs @ Lions
You have to kind of feel sorry for Matt Cassel. 15/22 with 3 interceptions doesn't really tell the whole story, in that at least two of those picks could be attributed to his receivers poor hands. Add on three fumbles and it just seems like nothing is going right these days for the Chiefs. Everything is going right for the Lions though. Four touchdowns for Matthew Stafford and some solid defense for a change? Are we sure this is really the Lions playing? I mean Jahvid Best is even staying healthy and finally living up to his immense potential. The world can surely only be hours away from spinning off its axis.

Ravens @ Titans
That's more like the Joe Flacco that I remember! less than 50% completion despite 32 chances to throw, two interceptions and just the one touchdown. The balance of the world is restored. Conversely Matt Hasselbeck was getting back to his old days with 30/42, which is the kind of efficiency that the Titans will need from him.

They could also use Chris Johnson recovering some of his old form. After the stupidly big payout they gave him he has so far failed to recapture his previous form. His average per carry was just over two yards and his longest run of the game was a whole 7 yards. At least the Titans receivers were doing better, with Kenny Britt going over 100 yards and Nate Washington falling just one yard shy of his century.

Which highlights an interesting problem with the Ravens D as Ed Reed got burned several times, not least due to his gambling style of play. And this is one of the things that kind of throws up a question for me; is Ed Reed worth it? Yes he gets interceptions and those are great plays. But to do that he often has to run completely out of position in the hope of catching out a quarterback, leaving huge holes behind in the secondary and giving up massive plays to the opposition offense.

On the opposite sideline, credit to Titans defensive ends Dave Ball and Derrick Morgan for their efforts in disrupting the Ravens offense.

Browns @ Colts
The battle of two Peytons beckoned. Except one of them was absent through injury leaving the other to clean up with nearly 100 yards on the ground and two touchdowns. Colt McCoy looked better than last week, Kerry Collins looked just as bad as a last week. Something tells me (perhaps the 0-2 record?) that it's time for the Colts to break out the running game and start getting that defense into gear. Joseph Addai is a good back and Delone Carter has done ok so far. It has to be better than giving Kerry Collins the ball nearly 40 times a game and hoping that the terrible form he showed in Tennessee will suddenly turn itself around. Because it wont.

Packers @ Panthers
You know I laughed at this game, seeing Cam Newton go 28/46 for 432 yards, a TD and 3 interceptions. Because again I make the simple point; if this was Tim Tebow, nobody would be interested in the 400+ yards, just the three interceptions, the sole touchdown and the loss. But no, for whatever reason Newton seems to be getting a pass. "He's just a rookie," "he's learning the game" etc. Well hold the fuck up a second, wasn't he the number one overall pick? Did Matthew Stafford get this kind of leeway? Did Mark Sanchez?

No, that's right. They didn't. Nor really should they. If you're going to splash the number one overall pick and a huge sum of money on a kid then you had better be sure he can play. Which Newton can't. I don't care about the 432 yards. That doesn't interest me. All that means is that Newton has chucked a bunch of long bombs to Steve Smith, who only caught 6 of his 13 targets, and has had some long runs off dump offs.

Where are the touchdown drives? 400 yards and yet you only come up with two touchdowns and three field goals? Off 400 yards? With three turnovers? To me that smacks stat inflation hiding the real story. The Panthers have come out this year looking to throw, relying heavily on 4 and 5 receiver sets to try and move the ball through the air. It's almost like they're trying to prove that Newton is 'the guy'. Well I personally am not buying it.

I am buying the Packers. Rodgers was 19/30 for over 300 yards, with 2 touchdowns and another on the ground from John Kuhn. The defense had a great game, with 3 interceptions overall (two for Charles Woodson), four sacks, 7 total QB hits and 8 total passes defended. Desmond Bishop and Morgan Burnett had great games in particular.

Buccaneers @ Vikings
You have to admire Adrian Peterson. Forget about the numbers (25 carries, 120 yards, 2 TDs). Just watch the guy run and just look at the effort, the determination he displays. I mean, he's not especially fast compared to other backs in the league. His cutting ability is nothing really special, there are lots of backs who can cut and move just as well as he can.

But there really isn't another back in the league who keeps fighting, keeps churning his feet and keeps pushing like Peterson. It's like watching a dog that hates water frantically paddling to get itself out of the river - it'll do whatever it takes, relentlessly, to get out of the water. That's how Peterson plays, relentlessly fighting for yards, until he's literally dragged to the ground kicking and screaming. About the only person that comes close that right now is LaGarrette Blount.

Who unfortunately for Peterson was also in this game and also ran in 2 touchdowns, one of them with just 30 seconds left to win the game. It's one of those wins that is difficult to figure out without watching it. On paper the advantage seems to be just in the Vikings favour, but that doesn't explain how the Vikings managed to race out into a 17-0 halftime lead, ripping great chunks out of the Buccaneers defense and yet only produce a field goal in the second half.

Credit to Josh Freeman and the Buc's for their comeback. An experience like that should stay with the team and give the hope in the future. For the Vikings it will be an agonising game to look back on, one where they will rue the missed chances to put it away.

Bears @ Saints
God almighty, what a game of mess ups. The first has to go to the Bears offense, who seem incapable of finding a way to protect Jay Cutler. He finished 19/45 but with no picks for a change. He was sacked 6 times and hit another 4 and to be honest it wasn't really his fault. They couldn't keep his backside covered, they insisted on running empty sets with Cutler under center (you're not gonna run it, so put him back somewhere safe) and kept receivers tight in the slot on the backside of otherwise "spread formations", without hot routes seemingly built in, allowing the Saints to blitz Cutler at will with no safety net.

The fact that safety Roman Harper had two sacks and that a Saints defense devoid of any natural pass rushers was able to get six sacks tells you everything you need to know about the Bears offense and how they go about protecting Cutler. And as if that wasn't enough, when you start making me feel sorry for Jay Cutler, it means you're fucking something up badly.

Drew Brees had no such problems. He was only touched twice and finished the game 26/37 for 270 yards and 3 touchdowns. Only Matt Forte offered the Bears any hope, with 10 catches for 117 yards plus another 49 yards rushing off ten carries. Poor sod, stuck on that team. I'll deal with the Darren Sproles "touchdown" later.

Jaguars @ Jets
The Jets took to the field dressed as a slightly drearier version of the Rams and then proceeded to lay a beat down on the Jaguars. Four interceptions for Luke McCown, some of them worse than others (but all bad). We even got a Blaine Gabbert sighting. Mark Sanchez was relieved, as for a whole game he wasn't the worst quarterback on the field. He tried his best though, throwing two interceptions. Antonio Cromartie was the big winner in this game, somewhat reviving his flagging reputation as a top corner with two interceptions.

Seahawks @ Steelers
Oh boy! The Seahawks were always going to be fighting an uphill battle against the Steelers, made all the more worse by the Steelers slighting last week against the Ravens. But scoreless? Wow, the Seahawks look bad this year. Tavaris Jackson wasn't actually that bad at quarterback, completing 20/29 passes. The trouble is he never really pushed the ball downfield. Combined with a non-existent rushing attack the Seahawks were never going to compete seriously in this one, and may not for the entire season.

The highlight for me in this game though was Doug Legursky, who is having a season to forget right now, getting flagged for clipping. As I mentioned before doing my week 2 picks this is precisely what the Ravens did to the Steelers in week one, and what everyone was dismissing as just the Steelers crying. I have to say, the Steelers have been somewhat vindicated now, even if nobody in the press will admit it.

Cardinals @ Redskins
When Larry Fitzgerald caught a pass over the shoulder and ran hard for the end zone, scoring a 73 yard touchdown, it all seemed to be finally going right for the Cardinals. Maybe this would be the year that they finally brought it all back together and went back to the playoffs?

No!

Well, not on this evidence anyway. Despite picking off Rex Grossman twice, the Cardinals just couldn't hang in there. The Cardinals offense looked improved, but not enough to bury the Redskins or to overcome their defense, that finally came to life in the second half and forced a critical fumble to end the Cardinals hopes. Still, this game was a lot closer than the Redskins would have wanted it to be.

Cowboys @ 49ers
I almost couldn't believe it. Ahead by ten with about 10 minutes to play. Then with a Miles Austin touchdown and a last gasp field goal the Cowboys came back. God damn it!! We even won the toss in over time but failed to put together the drive needed. Classic 49ers.

To be honest I think the game was a lot closer than it really should have been. If Tony Romo hadn't left the game with a rib injury (which it later transpired had caused a collapsed lung) then I have a feeling he would have tormented a 49ers defense which has lost some of its spark this year. Yes John Kitna was picked off twice, but that's John Kitna for you. The 49ers D managed to rustle up 7 QB hits but just the one sack.

Compare to the Cowboys defense and their nine hits which produced six sacks, including two for defensive end Jason Hatcher and two for DeMarcus Ware, as if anyone would be surprised to read that. You also have to give a lot of credit to Cowboys receiver Miles Austin who caught 9/15 for for 143 yards and three touchdowns, as well as Tony Romo, who pressed on through the pain and lead his team to a great comeback win.

I hate Tony Romo.

Bengals @ Broncos
Tim Tebow at wide receiver? What? Luckily not the shape of things to come, just the Broncos running out of receivers, as you do...

Better from Andy Dalton in this one. 27/41 for 332 yards, but still just two touchdowns. Both Jerome Simpson and rookie A.J. Green had over 100 yards receiving, but still a lot of missed opportunities in the passing game for the Bengals. Kyle Orton was reasonably efficient for the Broncos, but this time Denver leaned heavily on its rushing attack. Willis McGahee had 28 carries for 101 yards and a TD, marking a big leap forward for the Broncos rushing attack.

Texans @ Dolphins
You'd have to be stupid to have taken the Dolphins over the Texans right? Shut up. We'll get to the picks later. The point is that Chad Henne isn't playing all that well lately. Just 12/30 for 170 yards, with a touchdown and an interception thrown in for good measure. A lot of drops by the receivers doesn't help, but at some point as a quarterback you have to hold yourself accountable.

Matt Schaub was the opposite of Henne. He completed 21/29 for 230 yards and 2 touchdowns in a solid performance. Arian Foster returned to action for the Texans... then ten carries later returned to the sideline through injury. Luckily though Ben Tate picked up the slack and carried 23 times for 103 yards. Miami went a few yards better in that regard, with Daniel Thomas carrying 18 times for 107 yards, but it was not enough for the Dolphins, who suffered yet another home loss.

Chargers @ Patriots
I'm not sure which was more impressive; Chargers receiver Vincent Jackson, Vince Wilfork making an interception and then running back 28 yards, or Tom Brady. Hell they were all impressive!

Tom Brady; 31/40 (that's over a 75% completion percentage off 40 throws) for 423 yards and 3 touchdowns, no interceptions. That is truly outstanding play, reminiscent of his performances during the Patriots 16-0 regular season run. Naturally that helped set up the ground game and BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who carried 17 times for for 70 yards and another TD.

Phillip Rivers wasn't exactly shabby himself, with 29/40 for 378 yards and two touchdowns, but also two interceptions that, along with a fumble of his own and a bad fumble by Mike Tolbert, gave the Patriots the extra opportunities that you just can't give them if you expect to win.

That's really the story of the Chargers right now. They are a good team, a very good team, but they just can't help killing themselves with those critical errors. Even a 10 catches, 172 yards and two touchdowns for Vincent Jackson can't stop that.

Eagles @ Falcons
If ever there was a game where the scoreboard and the box score tell a lie, then it was this one. Matt Ryan finished 17/28 for 195 yards, 4 touchdowns and two interceptions, but he was all over the place for the first three quarters. The stats don't show the mess that Eagles defensive end Trent Cole made of Falcons left tackle Sam Baker. They don't show the occasional mess that is the Eagles offensive play calling. Or the impact of Mike Vick on this game.

Specifically I'm talking about his interception and his three fumbles, which basically gave the Falcons the lifelines they needed to try and hang in this one. Without those turnovers, which were useful as much because they denied the Eagles possession as for giving the Falcons chances, then I'm not sure the Falcons win this.

Of course in the end the Falcons did pull it back and Matt Ryan retains his "Matty Ice" moniker, but for most of the first three quarters he looked like "Matty Meltdown", as the Eagles pressure him relentlessly. Roddy White only got targeted four times in the entire game, as Ryan tried to lean on the insufferably over rated Julio Jones. Luckily Tony Gonzalez was often there to bail him out of jail.

Andy Reid tried his best to help the Falcons with some play calling that can only be described as bizarre. Why you would want to run that many reverses and plays with complicated ball handling when you have Mike Vick, LeSean McCoy (18 carries, 95 yards, 2 TDs), DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin (13 receptions, 171 yards and 2 TDs) is beyond me. Not that the Falcons were blameless in that regard, overlooking the Eagles shocking run defense for most of the game, despite having scythed great chunks of yards out of it early on. Michael Turner did finish with 21 carries for 114 yards and a TD, but more by accident in the end than design.

I'm not sure whether Vick getting injured helped the Falcons more or the Eagles?

Ultimately the Falcons were 5/5 in the red zone to the Eagles 3/5, which is all that often matters. The Falcons were somewhat fortuitous to win this game in my opinion, and if the Eagles can just clean up some of their mistakes then the Dream Team could well live up to its reputation. Don't hold your breath though....

Rams @ Giants
Monday Night Football!! And god that has to be the worst clash that Monday has seen since I don't know. You have to love (sarcasm reaching boiling point) the Giants dropping to the floor and playing injured to try and stop the Rams no huddle offense. What a fucking sad act to see on a professional football field. This is precisely the sort of crap that has put me off soccer. I just cannot stand such blatant cheating.

Not that it really mattered a whole bunch. The Rams were slaughtered in the red zone, achieving just one touchdown in four trips. The pass was caught by Danario Alexander (undrafted last year, but still made my watchlist) who finished the game with 3 catches for 122 yards and a touchdown. Unfortunately for the Rams that was the peak of their achievements, as Sam Bradford finished 22/46 for 331 yards and that sole touchdown.

The Giants had some fortune along the way, but still put together a reasonable showing. Eli Manning went 18/29 for exactly 200 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception, with some great throws along the way... and some not so great throws as well. The combination of running backs Ahamd Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs did ok, combining for 31 carries for 109 yards and a touchdown. Perhaps critical for the Giants though was the return of Justin Tuck, who finished with 1.5 sacks and looked fresh.

If the Giants can keep their front seven healthy and playing up to the high standards of which they're capable, then the future could be bright this year for them. They'll need a little more out of Eli and that ground game, but the foundation for success is certainly there. For the Rams, they really are going to miss Steven Jackson. They also need their defense to stop looking good on paper and actually start making a serious, sustained contribution. Three sacks is a start, but it's not a finish.

Right, time to check up on my picks; 13-3 for week 2! Screw the Ravens, screw the Bengals, and to be fair, screw me for picking the Dolphins on the off chance they might beat the Texans. That means I've recovered to 20-12 overall, but only thanks to this weeks performance. Although to be honest if anything this week demonstrates more than any other how pointless picks really are.

The Falcons game I came up a little lucky. The Redskins beating the Cardinals was a close run thing. The Bills just barely edged out the Raiders. and so on and so forth. I think in all honesty football games tend to be a little too close run in general for picks to really mean much.

And now some Jerry Springer style final thoughts;

-- The quality of the officiating was once again highly suspect. The Eagles/Falcons game was notable for a hit laid by Dunta Robinson on Jeremy Maclin (for which Robinson was flagged and has since been fined $40,000). But there was a hit later on by an Eagle on I think Julio Jones, but the reason I can't remember much about those involved was because it never drew a flag, despite being just as bad on replay as the Robinson hit (leading with the head, launching, striking up with the arm). It seems that purely because the receiver wasn't knocked out, there was no flag. And this is precisely why players in soccer dive in the penalty area, to ensure they get the penalty. As soon as players catch on to this you can expect to see a rash of NFL receivers faking being injured, if only for a few seconds, in order to draw flags (as well as to stop no huddle offenses).

-- The TV replay system is a joke. Coaches are reliant of the TV directors to give their staffs up stairs the right angles before they can make decisions on whether to challenge. That's bad enough. But the rules regarding scoring plays, all of which are now supposed to be subject to review, is even worse. Darren Sproles stepped out of bounds before scoring the touchdown that gave the Saints a two score lead against the Bears. Had this been reviewed properly, as it should have, the Saints would have stopped at the one and the Bears might well have hung in there and come back into the game. This new rule, which takes the challenge ability out of the hands of the coaches, is going to cause more arguments than it's worth before the season is done.

-- The quality of tackling saw no improvement this week. Can I just then sarcastically say congratulations to the NFLPA for demanding such a radical reduction in the amount of padded practices. You've just defeated the whole bloody point of practice and the chances are that the reduced opportunities to learn proper tackling form will lead to more poor tackling, which will eventually prompt players to resort to throwing themselves wildly at ball carriers, which will finally lead to a rise in injuries compared to before. Well done NFLPA. Well thought out. Twats.

-- There is a similar rash of defensive mistakes, prompted perhaps by the modern "Pro Bowl" mentality among players, with defenders trying to make highlight reel interceptions instead of batting the ball down when they have the chance. What we've seen as a result is a number of catches that shouldn't have been possible and I believe this is partly behind why pass heavy offenses have been so successful of late.

The best example of this risk taking mentality in favour of inflating stats was Bills rookie safety (a rather improper title) Da'Norris Searcy, who should have simply batted down the last gasp pass by Jason Campbell into the end zone. Instead he caught it and risked allowing a Raiders receiver to get two hands on it as well, knowing that a tie goes in the offenses favour.

Oddly enough that play was reviewed upstairs, despite Searcy clearly making the catch and there being no doubt in anyones mind except the replay officials. It's a funny old world I guess.

And that's me done for the weekend. Hopefully - hopefully he says - this week I will finally be able to start introducing diagrams into the blog, which will allow me to explain some of the stuff I've seen and go a little more in depth with regards to the coaching side of football.

Hopefully.

Saturday, September 17, 2011

2011 Week two picks

Evening. Or morning. Possibly afternoon. It all depends on when you're viewing this. For me it's 04:24 ZULU, or Greenwich Mean Time as it's otherwise known. Such is the joy of being a Football fan who lives in the UK and must subsequently live a moderately anti-social lifestyle in order to indulge in a life long passion. But there you go, everyone chooses their own path and all that McGuffin.

So, today I want to do my picks for this weekend, but much depends on the need for sleep and the availability of strong coffee.

Before I do though, I want to pick up the whole Steelers/Ravens spat that has been going on this week, with the Steelers accusing the Ravens of using illegal blocks and the Ravens saying that's rubbish, everything they've done is perfectly legal. The story was picked up by ProFootballTalk.com and that's the only reason I'm interested in it myself, because I enjoy shitting on Mike Florio and proving him wrong (just purely for my own entertainment), and not because of any sympathies with irritating Steelers fans who mundanely insist their team is still dominant, despite the fact they lost the Super Bowl last February.

The story was originally reported on that site by Michael David Smith. There was a follow up post later in which Ravens Head Coach John Harbaugh explained that the blocks were;

"... 100 percent legal, and it’s 100 percent ethical, and there is no danger whatsoever in the way the block is being executed because it’s in front."
Which is a straight lie. The blocks in question were illegal and it's precisely because they were not executed in front. Of course that doesn't stop one of the biggest blowhards in the mainstream media - Mike Florio - from pitching in;

"But the Steelers, and folks like ESPN’s Merril Hoge, apparently don’t understand the chop block rule,"
Now strictly speaking, the Steelers have got the rule regarding 'Chop Blocks' wrong. But as a journalist who is attacking the integrity and knowledge of the Steelers and of fellow journalist Merril Hoge, not to mention trying to take a smug stance of superior knowledge in all things rule based, it beehoves Florio to go and watch the film and make sure there that everything is in order before commenting. Which is something even an amateur like myself did.

The problem is this; there was a foul being committed by the Ravens, it just wasn't specifically 'chop blocking'. Whether the Steelers just didn't know the correct terminology or not, they at least knew something was wrong and they were right. Still following this? While it is perfectly legal for two adjacent offensive linemen to high/low a defensive player (which is where the argument over chop blocks stems from), what those offensive linemen are not allowed to do is hit a player below the knees, from behind.

This is what is known as 'clipping'. The official explanation, according to the NFL's own website is;
Clipping: Throwing the body across the back of an opponent’s leg or hitting him from the back below the waist while moving up from behind unless the opponent is a runner or the action is in close line play.
The observant among you will jump on that last sentence about 'close line play' (the less observant should stop yacking on the phone to that person who you don't need to be talking to right now). But if you follow the link above to NFL.com and their definitions of the various terms, you'll see close line play right underneath clipping;
Close Line Play: The area between the positions normally occupied by the offensive tackles, extending three yards on each side of the line of scrimmage. It is legal to clip above the knee
I underlined the final sentence because that's what's important. Clipping is only legal in close line play when the clip occurs above the knee. Below it is still a foul. And this - friends - ok, acquaintances - is where we come to picture time. Basically the best picture I could get is taken from a clip of the NFL Networks 'Playbook' show. This is merely a screen capture of one of their videos, to which they obviously own all rights etc. All I've done is insert a red circle in order to draw your eyes to the correct location.


What you can hopefully see is Steelers Nose Tackle Casey Hampton getting his legs taken out from under him by the Ravens right guard who takes a shot at Hamptons ankles. That - my acquaintances - is what Hampton and the Steelers were complaining about. And that is indeed an illegal block.

The moral of the story? Watch the video first Florio, before you make one of your stupid, smug, sweeping assertions. Unlike a certain blogger I know. What you might also be able to see in the picture is that I refuse to use Akamai's "high quality" video service, basically on the principle that their standard quality service is shit and plagued with glitches, so I can only presume the high quality videos will be the same, they'll just be a bit sharper and take three times as long to load.

Or in other words - fuck that and on with the picks.

Raiders @ Bills; A tricky pick right out of the gate. On the one hand you have a Bills team that went on a riot week one and destroyed the Chiefs. But you also have a Raiders team who ran the ball really well against the Broncos and are certain to not abandon the run so quickly as the Chiefs did in week one. The question then becomes - for me - whether you think the Bills can stop the run and.... I think they can. I really do. I think they've done a lot of good work drafting and preparing that defensive front since Chan Gailey took over as a Head Coach and I think their passing game is leagues ahead of the Raiders. Bills win.

Packers @ Panthers; The Cam Newton express is on display at home for the first time in the regular season and there is a lot of optimism abounding, both in the locker room, the stands and around the media. Cam Newton threw for 400+ yards in his first appearance and showed a number of desirable traits. Well that's all well and good, but I happen to believe he also showed a number of undesirable traits as well and that the Packers defense is going to be a much tougher nut to crack. Mix in Aaron Rodgers ripping up the Carolina D and I'm afraid I'm going to have to put the brakes on the Newton express for one week. Packers win.

Chiefs @ Lions; I have to ask myself one thing - do I believe that Todd Haley will finally lean on his rushing attack? The answer is no. And even then, I think the Lions D-line is good enough, just, to keep that rushing attack in check and allow Matthew Stafford to open up a lead against a vulnerable Chiefs secondary. Lions win.

Browns @ Colts; Did you watch last weeks Colts game? If you did, then you wont even need an explanation for this. Browns win.

Buccaneers @ Vikings; The Minnesota Vikings come in 2011 and they entertain a Buccaneers team that is angry over its week one loss to the Lions. I think the Buccaneers will run it more this week and frankly I don't think they'll have to do too much to beat the Vikings. The Vikings offensive line was horrendous in week one and the Buccaneers have more than enough playmakers on their defense to expose that weakness. Buccaneers win.

Bears @ Saints; Tough one. The Bears had a great start to the season, certainly way beyond the expectations I had for them. The Saints lost to an explosive Packers team, but gave the Packers D a good licking at times just to let them know they were still in the game. Honestly, I think the Bears have been skating on thin ice for a long time now and this is the game where the ice breaks, letting Drew Brees and company flood that secondary for some big points. Saints win.

Jaguars @ Jets; As impressed with the Jaguars as I was in week one, and as much as I dislike Mark Sanchez for his inconsistency, I still can't look beyond New York in this game. I just don't think the Jaguars have the offensive line to contain Bart Scott and the Jets pass rush, nor do the Jaguars have the ability to do the reverse, with their own pass rush being too weak I think to seriously hamper the Jets offense. Jets win.

Seahawks @ Steelers; Pete Carrol brings his Seahawks side east across the states to face a Pittsburgh team that is licking its wounds after being mauled by the Ravens. I can't see the Steelers giving Seattle anything less than 100% as a result. They're going to be angry in this game and much more focused during practice this week. I think the Seahawks don't have the tools in any phase of offense to do much damage to Pittsburgh and I think their defense lacks enough bite to really expose a Steelers line that was shown last week to be a bit ropey. Steelers win.

Ravens @ Titans; The Titans offense looked bad last week. Really bad. I can't see that improving against the Ravens. Ray Lewis, Haloti Ngata, Terrell Suggs and the rest of the Ravens front seven are well placed to pour the misery on Chris Johnson and Matt Hasselbeck, while the Titans defensively really don't have the speed to get after Joe Flacco, or a single player who can really contain Ray Rice. Ravens win.

Cardinals @ Redskins; Both these teams got big wins in week one, but only one team really asserted itself. The Redskins handed a butt kicking to an otherwise pretty good Giants team, meanwhile the Cardinals somewhat scraped through against the Panthers, relying on a special teams return to wrap it up. I think Rex Grossman is good enough to exploit the weaknesses in the Cardinals secondary, I think the Redskins O-line is good enough to contain the Cardinals pass rush and to overpower their rush defense, while the Redskins pass rush is well poised to exploit the Cardinals weaker O-line. Redskins win.

Cowboys @ 49ers; As much as I would love to see my 49ers pound the Cowboys into the floor, that is patently a pipe dream. Offensively the 49ers might just be one of the worst teams in the NFL right now. It's a close run thing between them, the Manning-less Colts and the Tavaris Jackson lead Seahawks. And as much as we all like to bash Tony Romo, he did have a good start to last Sunday Nights game. That should be all he needs to put this one beyond the reach of San Francisco. Cowboys win.

Bengals @ Broncos; John Fox will trot out for a second home game with the Broncos, this time looking for a much better result with Kyle Orton still at the head of his offense, and hopefully without his fans starting up any Tebow chants. The Bengals will be looking to capitalise on a great team start to the season and impressive individual performances from both rookie quarterback Andy Dalton and his back up Bruce Gradkowski. Personally I think the Bengals running game will be a little too strong for the Broncos and that could tip the balance of an otherwise tight game. Bengals win.

Texans @ Dolphins; Despite their terrible start to the season from a scoreline perspective, the Dolphins actually did ok on offense. They certainly looked improved compared to last year. Chad Henne was more confident and the receiving corps looked a little more in tune. Is that enough to beat a Texans team that has markedly improved its defense? I'm not sure. The Dolphins O-line should stand up to the pressure a little better than the Colts did last week, but can Miami's defense get after Matt Schaub and slow the Texans passing attack? I'm going to take a punt here and go out on a limb by saying yes. Dolphins win.

Chargers @ Patriots; No doubt, Phillip Rivers is a great quarterback. No doubt the Chargers have a great offense all round, and a pretty good defense. But good enough to beat the Patriots? I mean Tom terrific? Tom Brady? The three rings Brady, golden boy of the NFL? Now that's a tough ask. The Patriots pass protection was rock solid for the most part against the Dolphins and Brady looked as good as he's ever been. The form book would say take New England and I think that's exactly what I'm going to do, though I do think the Chargers will keep this one close. Patriots win.

Eagles @ Falcons; Mike Vick returns to Atlanta, which might have been special were it not for the fact that he's already done this once since signing with the Eagles. Question is, can he come away with a win? Last week he really struggled at times throwing the football, yet still managed to generate enough big plays to push his team through to victory. The Eagles defense meanwhile was very vulnerable against the run, which means their is a mismatch in favour of the Falcons back Michael Turner. Will the Falcons keep it on the ground and chew some clock? Can their offensive line actually pass protect this week? I'm going out on another limb here and saying yes. Falcons win.

Rams @ Giants; Both had losing starts, with the Rams losing to the explosive Eagles offense and the Giants losing to Rex Grossman. No offense Rex. Now when I look at this game the first thing I see is the Giants pass rush. I see guys like Jason Pierre-Paul ripping across the line and making short work of the Rams O-line. I see Eli Manning as just good enough to expose the holes in the Rams secondary. And I see a home victory for New York. Giants win.

I'll be back either Sunday night or Monday night to share my thoughts on the weekends games. Till then, have a beer. Relax. And enjoy week two of the NFL season.

Friday, September 16, 2011

Creative accounting, a child with a gun and a Croupier

Okey dokey, I promised I would get round to covering a bunch of stuff and today I've found the time to slot it all in. First on the list of things to address was the Salary Cap issue over the next few years.

Many people have been wondering how some teams in the league - and indeed the league at large - is going to reconcile some of the requirements for minimum spending. Specifically this season the 32 teams must spend between them 99% of the value of the salary cap (cap = $142.4 million per team) in real cash, not just fiddled accounting figures. In 2012 that number will come down to 95% across the league as a whole and then from 2013 till 2020 each team must individually spend at least 89% of the cap in actual, real cash.

On the face of it that seems like an impossible challenge. For the entire league to spend 99% of the cap in real cash? Surely that means every team would have to spend to the wall to make it happen? No more cheap skating for the Bills, Bengals and Buccaneers. Everyone must pull their weight. After all, the Cowboys, Redskins and Patriots (and now the Eagles) can only spend so much before they will start going over the cap. Right?

Wrong.

Basically the league has a method of continuing to fiddle the figures for the next nine years (remember, no opt outs). And it all comes down to two words;

1) Signing,
2) Bonuses,

Signing bonuses will be key to helping teams push up their real terms cash spend each year, while also allowing them to cook the books to some degree in terms of the official salary cap. The reason for this is because signing bonuses count as a cash spend in the first year that the contract is signed, but for the purposes of the salary cap the value of the bonus can be spread out over the life of the contract.

So let's just say that your favourite team gives its quarterback a shiny new five year contract with a $10 million signing bonus. That ten million has to be paid now, this year, to the player. That money counts towards your teams 'real-terms' cash spend for the season. But in salary cap terms that $10 million is spread over the next five years, with $2 million in cap being attributed to each of the next five years.

As I said earlier, what this allows teams to do is to bump up their cash spend for each year so they don't get into trouble with the NFLPA, while also allowing them to keep their long term salary cap down, leaving them plenty of future wiggle room to mess with the books and fit everyone in. Pretty clever if you ask me. It also helps to explain why it took so little time for 31 of the 32 teams to come back and say yes to the deal (the Raiders abstained, possibly because Al Davis was still in bed). I think the owners got themselves a nice little number with this, especially with the rookie salary cap thrown in as well.

Now onto fun with Plaxico Burress. Or should that be at Plaxico Burress?

Definitely at. See last week it came to light that Burress had given an interview to 'Men's Journal' for their October issue (this was before he signed with the Jets) where he laid out some of his issues with his former coach Tom Coughlin and his former team mates. Some of the stuff he said just made me laugh.

"Man, we're paid too much to be treated like kids. He doesn't realize that we're grown men and actually have kids of our own." - Yeah Plax, because you really demonstrated to Coach Coughlin that maturity and responsibility of yours... by illegally carrying a firearm and then shooting yourself in the leg with it. Nice work son.

It doesn't end there though. Burress also aired his opinion on New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg who had called for Burress to be punished to the fullest extent of the law. Burress described it as ".. totally wrong, stacked those charges so high, I had to go to jail." Yeah, I mean what other criminals get sent to jail huh? And don't you just feel sorry for him?

I mean all he did wrong was to illegally carry around a firearm (he had no license) and then negligently discharged it in a place packed full of innocent bystanders. It's not like he set a bad example for young people now is it? Or, you know, seriously endangered a club full of patrons? Na, nothing that bad. Certainly not worth sending him to jail over.

The best bit I saved to the end. "... but didn't hurt no one but himself."


Yeah, you didn't. All you did is shoot yourself in your own stupid leg. But here's the thing. The gun was tucked in his waistband and slipped down. In grabbing for it, that's when he pulled the triiger by accident and discharged the weapon. Now this time he got lucky. But with the weapon slipping freely down his leg that could have easily ended up pointed at somebody. Instead of shooting himself in the leg, he could have easily ended up shooting someone else in the stomach.

The fact he got lucky on this occassion doesn't preclude the fact that what he did was incredibly stupid and he shouldn't be in the league. How in the hell do you expect young people to turn their back on things like gang violence when at the same time you're sending the message to them "oh it's cool, if you get into trouble then just let it all blow over for a few years and then come right back and keep making the money". Thank you Goodell, you dumb fuck.

And finally we see the return of Lombardi Watch, which has nothing to do with predicting the Super Bowl winner and everything to do with keeping an eye out for the odd article written by NFL.com writer Michael Lombardi, a former front office personnel guy with teams like the Raiders. Indeed, perhaps that last bit about the Raiders helps explain why Lombardi makes some of the choices he does when talking about personnel.

In one of his latest articles he brought back something I hated from last year; his red and blue chip rankings. Basically he takes all the players in the NFL and gives certain players blue chips and some red. The blue chippers, if memory serves me, are supposed to be the top ten at their position, and the red chippers the next 5 guys after that. Or something.

Except half the time he wouldn't even have the required number of players in each group, with eleven blue chippers in one position group and just three in another etc. It all made no sense and that's why I hated the article. The comments section of his article makes particularly fun reading, as a legion of NFL fans descend to point out the flaws in the article and tell Lombardi to shut the fuck up.

Well he did it again, only this time he assigned points to the various chips (based on his perceived worth of positions) and then ranked the teams according to those points. Here is the article with the final rankings. You should read it. It's the best comedy sketch you'll see this year. How else can you explain his decision to put teams like the Bengals, Browns, Seahawks, Cardinals, 49ers and Panthers all finishing above the Lions?

The trouble as I see it with his article is not giving enough credit to certain players on certain teams. Take the Bills for example, who are rock bottom of the pile after only receiving one 'red chip' for defensive tackle Kyle Williams. What about corner Drayton Florence and safety Jarius Byrd? Or inside linebacker Nick Barnett, formerly of the Packers? Or running back Fred Jackson?

Next is the Raiders. Richard Seymour got a red chip and that's where it ended for the Raiders. So no red chip for the pass rush capable linebacker Kamerion Wimbley (nine sacks last year)? What about second year receiver Jacoby Ford, whose speed lit up the NFL last season? Or running back Darren McFadden? Maybe a red for kicker Sebastian Janikowski? No?

Yet Jaguars tight end Marcedes Lewis gets a blue chip instead of red? Lions receiver Calvin Johnson only gets a red chip, not a blue? (seriously, check the article, I'm not making that up). Redskins safety O.J. Atogwe somehow is good enough to get a red, but Brian Dawkins of the Broncos gets nothing, nor does Broncos corner Champ Bailey. Cowboys receiver Miles Austin only gets a red not a blue? And Cowboys defensive tackle Jay Ratliff, one of the best defensive linemen in the NFL right now, only gets a red? But Buccaneers corner Aqib Talib gets a blue chip?

The list just goes on and on. Dolphins linebacker Cameron Wake had more sacks than Clay Matthews last year, but Wake is a red chip to Matthews's blue? Vincent Jackson of the Chargers only red, along with Chargers team mate Shaun Phillips (tied for 10th most sacks last year, along with blue chippers such as Terrell Suggs and Jared Allen)?

It just makes no sense at all and these are the articles that I hate the most from Lombardi, when they try and make him into a journalist or an analyst. Lombardi is at his best explaining why he thinks teams made certain moves, when they make him put on that front office hat and give us the cold, hard business reasons why teams cut players, give players the types of contracts that they do etc, and also explaining how all the office stuff like the salary cap works.

When he writes articles like this, which seem very forced, it just ends up as total garbage. Like my weekly picks. The first half of which will be done tomorrow.