Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Dinner dates all round.

-- The Boston Herald has reported that QB prospect Tim Tebow has met with Patriots Head Coach Bill Belichick. Teams are allowed a maximum of 30 so called "in-house visits" with prospects, towards which this meeting counts. And it makes great sense for the Patriots. They already have a franchise guy at the position in Brady so the need to quickly develop a QB isn't there. It means the Pats would have time to work with Tebow over the course of one or two years to develop him properly without having to rush him into the line of duty. Tebow would probably receive snaps only in the case of injury to Brady or on certain goal line packages. And it's definitely the kind of move the Pats would make. Spend a 2nd round pick to get a guy with great off field character. He's practically a model for what the Patriots look for. Keep an eye on this one when the Patriots come back on the clock at number 44 overall (the 12th pick in the second round). -- Dez Bryant, touted by many as the number one receiver in this years draft, held his pro day workout in his home town of Lufkin, Texas. It's the first chance scouts and coaches have had to look at Bryant since he injured himself in preparation for the NFL combine. Now personally, I already had a few red flags over Bryant. First off, he hasn't played for a whole year after being ruled ineligible by the NCAA due to an incident involving a failure to fully disclose his personal contact with former NFL player and current speller of doom to young players, Deion Sanders. Next, I'm concerned by his breaks on routes. As a former WR coach (thanks work schedule), my big issue watching Bryant is that his transitions into routes are lazy and obvious. No sudden deceleration, but a noticeable pop up and gradual turn. I also see a significant amount of catches and TD where you have Bryant, though not overly tall himself, being matched up against small corners. Essentially jump balls, where his size and strength do all the work. Now I'm sorry, but the NFL isn't going to be quite that easy. What I will say for him, is that he has great hands and attacks the football well. But all this pales into comparison to the red flag thrown up today. As he came out for his workout he was apparently accompanied by no less than a 10 person "entourage" (read: people looking for a free payday). But that's not even the red flag causing incident. Nor is the fact that he dropped many of his early passes. Nor is the fact that he ran his 40 time in the 4.5 region. It's not even that his vertical leap, probably his key weapon, would have only been 7th among receivers at the combine (though his broad jump was over 11 feet by all accounts). And it's not that he failed to complete the shuttle and cone drills several times either. It's his shoes. Yep, shoes. Or rather, the fact that he forgot to bring his own. So if I'm a scout or a coach from say, the 49ers or the Seahawks (both of whose Head Coaches attended), then I'm gonna be pretty damn annoyed that I just travelled all that way from the West Coast to come and see you work out, only for you to forget your shoes. I mean how does that happen? How do you get ready for one of the most important days in your life and then forget your shoes? Idiot. If I was a Head Coach in attendance, I would have collected up my guys and walked out to go get lunch, perhaps a nice genuine Texan steak. Because I'm not standing around watching you make excuses about why you kept falling over because of the cleats in the replacement shoes. I don't buy it. The minute I hear that you forgot to bring your shoes to your pro day, then I'm taking you off my board. Completely. What the hell use to me is a kid who can remember to bring along his "entourage" but can't remember his damn shoes? It just astounds me the level of stupidity that some people possess. Have a great day everyone. And don't forget your shoes.

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Back with a bang

-- Having moaned about the boring weekend, things seem to have come to life a little today. We start with the 49ers who have begun voluntary workouts that have seen David Carr pushing to try and win the starting job from Alex Smith. I think it'll be interesting to see how Smith handles this mentally, having already been named the provisional starter for the season by Head Coach Mike Singletary. Will he rest easy or will he fight hard to prove he's worthy? Well by all accounts he's doing well so far, being much more vocal at practice and taking a leadership role, which was a big question mark that had hung over his head last season. The difference this kind of thing can make to a team only reinforces my view that Tim Tebow will prove to be a strong player when he enters the league. -- The Washington Redskins have given a new deal to CB Philip Buchanon. I like this simply because it maintains depth in a good secondary. This is how you build championship quality defenses. -- Eagles FB Leonard Weaver has come out in support of QB Donovan McNabb. Which is all very gracious, but my question is two fold; why has only one player led the charge, not a united team front and why has it taken so long for anyone to speak out at all? Issues, is the word I would use for the Eagles coming into the new season. -- Suh vs. McCoy, the battle at Defensive Tackle. Having done more tape watching (telly is rubbish these days) the thing that stands out is the greater explosion of the latter. What you see with McCoy is an instant drive with speed, penetrating into the backfield and wreaking havoc, whereas Suh has a tendency to sit and watch plays develop. My worry, as I might have said before, is that in a pass first league and with a lot of teams running zone/stretch rush schemes, Suh is going to be left as something of a spectator while McCoy lights things up with that penetration. Tricky thing to judge if you're a team like the Lions who will probably end up picking one of the two. -- Bruce Campbell. The more I watch him, the more one word comes to mind; terrible. Well perhaps that's a little harsh, but what I do see is a clear case of someone having a superb combine and getting artificially shunted up the board. Don't be surprised if Campbell flops in the league and NFL pundits and scouts blame everyone except themselves for why a first round pick (because they've made him that) turns out to be nothing more than a backup. We might as well talk about Jason Pierre Paul while we're at it. Put a bunch of cones down and say "go run round these" and Pierre Paul will amaze all with his speed and agility. But one season of proper college football? And a first rounder? Maybe you could take him late (as in, undrafted) and develop something out of him, but to burn a top 20 pick? I wouldn't recommend it. -- Next, another example of the continuing Jamie Dukes hot/cold analysis syndrome. Last time I had him cold for professing that if Pete Carroll doesn't cut it in Seattle, then College coaches shouldn't be considered for NFL head coaching jobs. But today he was on form on NFL Total Access, and made the hot comment regarding the Rams and their second round pick. Trade that sucker in (not Jamie Dukes, the second round pick) to Philadelphia in exchange for Vick, then use that number 1 overall pick to either take an OT or DT. I agree with Dukes that Vick is just about as good as anything you're going to get QB wise in the draft this year, and he'll only cost you a second rounder to do it. He still throws a flat intermediate pass and seems to have plenty of go left in his legs. That takes pressure off RB Steven Jackson to carry the team and it gives your franchise a badly needed boot in the butt to try and get more asses in the seats and more cash in the tills. -- And finally, Sam Bradford had his pro day workout today, showing off his arm for all the assembled teams. The reviews that came back seemed to be very positive. But this strikes me as half the trouble. Lots of grinning faces talking about arm strength and deep routes etc, on a scripted workout on an empty field. I'd be much more interested to know how he got on behind close doors in the interviews and board sessions. Have a great day everyone.

Monday, March 29, 2010

What's this barrel?

-- Sunday. The most boring weekend in NFL history continues. The biggest news stories around seem to be that Ben Roethlisberger is unlikely to attend Steelers voluntary off season workouts and that Joey Porter, having recently signed with the Arizona Cardinals, has already got himself arrested. There's a barrel somewhere, and I'm scraping it. Have a great day everyone.

Sunday, March 28, 2010

All quiet on the western front

-- Err, so really, nothing at all has happened of note so far this weekend. The most talked about thing I can find is the new overtime rules, with much debate on all sides of the fence. Some, like me, can't see the point. Some think that a rules changes was necessary, but don't think the new rules adequately address the issue. Some think it's a godsend. One of the more prevailing theories at the moment seems to be the idea of letting the last team to possess the ball in regulation continue from wherever their drive ended in the 4th, until one team scores. This I don't get. Surely this is even worse for fairness than the coin toss? And what a lot of people still fail to realise is that the regulation game has ended. You have 60 minutes to score for a reason, because we don't want the game going on all night. It's very easy to complain that the coin toss is "unfair" etc, but the point is, you've done nothing to earn a fair result. You had your "fair" amount of time and "fair" number of possessions in regulation, and you couldn't win. So quit crying and start motivating your defense for a stop.

Friday, March 26, 2010

McTrade?

-- S0 most of the teams that were implied in a possible trade for Donovan McNabb have now publicly backed out, save for perhaps the Bills and the Raiders. Which honestly, doesn't make that much sense. If you look at the teams other than the Bills and Raiders that were being mentioned seriously (Rams, Redskins, Cardinals) all of them would find a great benefit in scooping up McNabb. Now, we have to temper this by pointing out that McNabb is not a long term solution. He's more of a temporary stop gap who will give you maybe 3-5 years while you find and develop your future franchise guy. It should also be pointed out that McNabb has taken the Eagles to one unsuccessful Superbowl and five NFC Championship games, of which they've obviously only won one. The trouble with McNabb seems to be that as the pressure mounts, he starts to choke. Stick on an NFC Championship game involving McNabb and/or one of his more recent high pressure games, and what you see is a lot of his balls hitting receivers in the knees, balls bouncing short off the ground, and WR reaching back behind themselves to catch misplaced passes. But despite that, he's still better than anything possessed currently by the three teams mentioned in brackets above, and a trade for his services makes a splash beyond just his position, leaving them with some fantastic options. Let's take a brief look at how all three could be improved with a bit of McNabb magic: St. Louis Rams The Rams have probably the most to gain by trading for McNabb. Realistically, the best the Eagles can expect for McNabb now is a second round pick. Now the Rams hold the 33rd pick in the draft (1st in the second round) and that should be more than adequate compensation. But what does it do for the Rams? Well first off, they get a proven QB to finally help them generate some offense and take the pressure off of outstanding RB Steven Jackson and possibly off their D as well. Even if McNabb can just keep the Rams defense off the field for a bit longer, that will help keep them a little fresher and maybe give them time to reorganise and regroup once in a while, hopefully boosting that entire unit. And secondly, it frees up the number 1 overall pick for the Rams to go away from Sam Bradford. Now the choice is two fold; take a DT (Suh or McCoy, with McCoy probably a better fit for Steve Spagnuolos' defense) or take an OT who can protect McNabb and again boost that offense. Personally I would want the OT to keep McNabb upright. The Rams need some form of offense desperately. Their priority at the moment is just getting to a stage where they can be considered good, even though they wont be exceptional. Building that offense will go a long way to cultivating that 'good' team. Washington Redskins Much like the Rams, the advantage in trading for McNabb comes in freeing up that 1st round pick. There is much speculation as to the direction the Redskins will go in, but certainly QB is a perceived need for them. Picking up McNabb allows them to invest the fourth pick overall in an OT, again to help keep McNabb upright, and now the 'skins offense will at least be at a point where it can start to compete properly. The beauty as well for the Redskins is that like many teams that have a solid Defense, their offense doesn't have to be exceptionally productive in order to win games. Just pretty good will suffice. McNabb + a new Left Tackle gives you that. Arizona Cardinals Arizona perhaps won't feel the benefit so much on draft day, but during the regular season they certainly should. With the loss of Warner, there is a big, QB shaped hole in the Cardinals offense. Thinking that either Matt Leinart or Derek Anderson could fill the void appears to be slightly wishful thinking at this stage. McNabb could. Given the weapons that the Cardinals have on offense, and providing their defense can hold up despite the offseason changes, the Cards should hardly miss a beat from their previous playoff form. Should..... Have a great day everyone.

Thursday, March 25, 2010

Marshalling a trade.

-- Apparently talks between the Seattle Seahawks and WR Brandon Marshall are getting serious. The trouble is that the Seahawks haven't done much talking with the Broncos about compensation for any move. By all accounts, the Seahawks are looking for a 1st round pick and nobody seems willing to give that up for Marshall. Which to me, makes zero sense. Are you really telling me that you're going to go out in the draft and pick up a better player than Marshall with your 1st round pick, let alone a better receiver? Dream on. -- Along with many of the new proposals this offseason, one important one has been the idea put out that the league is trying to schedule as many divisional matches as possible in Week 17, with the ideal being all of that weeks games as division clashes. The theory is that teams will not rest starters against divisional opponents, which honestly sounds a little ambitious. A team that has won the division already is unlikely to change their plans based on their opponent. But what it hopefully will do is put together more teams that are fighting one another for divisional titles and Wildcard spots. This is one of those moves that has something useful to gain and not really a lot to lose, the kind of things the NFL should be looking at more often. -- An unnamed individual on a coaching site I frequent believes that kicking should be removed from football full stop. Proof that some people should just not be allowed to comment through obvious lack of brain power and common sense. -- The big buzz of the day has been surrounding Donovan McNabb. Various reports have noted interest in McNabb, the front runners seeming to be Arizona, Oakland, Buffalo and St. Louis, the latter of whom have reportedly offered a trade involving their 2nd round pick and safety Oshiomogho Atogwe (say that quickly three times). Many would doubt the wisdom of letting go of McNabb, but that's the whole point of having the depth at the QB position that the Eagles do. Why else do you have Kolb except to cultivate him as the QB of the future? McNabb is 33 now and if you trade him then you get a) A safety who can go some way to replacing Brian Dawkins and shoring up your defense, and b) you get the first pick in the second round of the draft this year. There are plenty of good players who will be left on the board by then and the Eagles would have the first choice of these. That McNabb deal sounds like a blessing to me. Will the Eagles bite? You never know in the funny world of Andy Reid. Have a great day everyone.

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

The Sudden death of Sudden death

-- So last night I was in a drunken stupor and in no shape to be blogging, but unfortunately (in many semantic ways) today that's not the case, so it means I can blog. And what better place to start than with the firing of 49ers ex-GM Scot McCloughan. By all accounts it was an personal issue and not a football related thing so there's no real info on the 'why' it happened (and I try to avoid that sort of thing until all the facts are clear, which is why I haven't mentioned the Ben Roethlisberger situation). I don't know what to make of the impact it will have. I can't imagine that this close to draft day it can be a really good thing, but the 49ers have been so erratic in the quality of their drafting in recent years, maybe, just maybe, we'll get a nice stable guy come in and fix things. Or we could end up with Charley Casserly.... (don't do it Jed!!) -- It's official, the new overtime rules for the playoffs have been authorised and I for one am not happy. There are pretty much two rules I think are essential to a debate. Number one is don't interrupt people, let everyone have their say. Interrupting someone is a good way of showing that you're not listening to what they're saying, you're just waiting for your chance to 'convert' them to your point of view. The second rule is that all facts presented must be relevant and accurate to the best of your knowledge. Spurious use of statistics and percentages is one of my biggest bugs in football right now. And it's here that the leagues decision making process falls foul of rule two. The number that's being banged from wall to wall in every discussion about this rule change is 60% (it's actually 59.8%). This is the percentage of teams that since 1994 have won the overtime coin toss in a playoff game and then gone on to win. Except that it has zero bearing on the new rule change. Zero. Because (sorry grammar guys) the stat that really matters is 34.4%. That's the percentage since 1994 of teams that have won a playoff game in overtime, on the first possession. Now to me, that's really not all that bad. And when you keep in mind that from 1974-93, before the kickoff was moved back 5 yards, that percentage was only 25.4%, it really doesn't seem to give the first possession team that much of an advantage. A small one yes, but nothing huge. So why not just forget all this major change business and just put the kickoff back where it belongs? Now we're back to a 75% chance that both teams will get a shot at victory. What this really smacks off is another one of these "how can we help the QB?" type things. Because (sorry again) now Peyton Manning and Tom Brady get their chance to take the field. Now, a mere field goal kicker cant win a game with his boot. Now, Lords Manning and Brady get the chance to come back onto the field and work their magic. And of course, if the receiving team of the kickoff gets a TD then it ends straight away anyhow. This is basically an anti-special teams measure, 'cos the NFL wants it's marquee men to finish the job. But what they may get instead is something much worse. The game might just end on an onside kick or an incomplete pass. So here's the deal. I choose to receive and score a field goal on the opening possession, which means I now have to kick back to you. But if I go for an onside kick and recover, it's over. Your "possession" just ended without you touching the ball. Or maybe I pin you inside your 10 and you have difficulty getting out. It's fourth down now and you can't punt. So you throw it, the ball bounces off your receivers hands and it's game over. Tuck in. At least with the field goal, whether you like them or not (I do), the game is ending on a scoring play. It's a big moment when a guy lines up a kick and everyone holds their breath, waiting to see what happens. Now we could see games end as a ball miserably sails over a receivers head and onto a teams bench. But worse, there's something even bigger at stake here! All this time spent, sorry wasted, on this rule change could have been used more productively. By getting rid of that damn tuck rule! Have a great day everyone.

Monday, March 22, 2010

A cross between a tree and an Argentinian

-- And the Draft merry go round spins again, kind of, as Browns GM Mike Holmgren has let it be known that he intends to pick up a QB in the third round region. Not sure what kind of talent will be left at that time, but likely possibilities might be Zac Robinson or Tony Pike, who've been moving up a number of draft boards lately. And so we move on, as the other day I suggested that the world of medicine could help you make draft picks? How? One word; Triage. Descended from two words, tree, a big thing made of wood; and argie bargy, a derogatory British name for someone of Argentinian descent. Of course I jest. Triage actually comes from the French verb Trier, meaning to separate, sort or select, and is the name given to the almost universal practice in Medicine of evaluating and prioritising patients for treatment and/or transport, usually in emergency situations such as disaster zones. The purpose is to ensure that limited resources are used in the most successful and efficient manner possible. Time wasted dealing with someone with a broken finger could be better spent on someone who has a life threatening chest injury. And additionally it has to be understood that sometimes, unfortunately, certain cases have to be marked off as a lost cause for anything except pain relief. Typically the very basics of Triage come down to grouping people into one of the following three categories: - Those who are likely to live regardless of treatment - Those who are likely to die regardless of treatment - Those for whom immediate treatment might make a positive difference And personally, I think these three categories can be useful when looking at your draft needs (at last, a link). The simple solution is to look at each position group that you have and prioritise them by fitting each into one of the three categories above. I think an example or two might be useful here. WR - Dallas Cowboys. This is a clear case of the first group. They could go out and snap up a superb WR with their first pick, but there's little point. Regardless of whether they pick another WR or not, their current group will remain in healthy shape next season. Picking another WR serves them no advantage and overlooks other positions where they might be able to make a difference. Probably one of the clearest arguments for not taking the Best Player Available. Other examples are; RB-Panthers, O Line-Colts, DB-Jets. DB - Lions. This a clear example of category two. No offense to Detroit, but the Lions secondary play was hideous last year. And a new DB would do them no favours. They lack talent desperately across the safety and corner positions, partly because they struggle to get pressure up front. If they could sort out their D-line with the addition of Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy, then the situation might just improve enough for next year. Further examples include; LB-Rams, WR-Redskins, QB-Raiders. And finally, LB-49ers. This is a good example of Category three. Patrick Willis is the undisputed king of this unit, and Scott McKillop is coming along nicely, while Manny Lawson is useful off the edge. But Takeo Spikes is getting older and their are questions about the rest of the group. The addition of one or two extra pieces in the draft could make a big difference. Other notable examples include; DB-Saints, WR-Dolphins, RB-Eagles. So there you have it, a possible medical remedy for your positional woes. Still not as good as Aspirin though. Have a great day everybody.

Sunday, March 21, 2010

Zzzzzzzz

-- Honestly, nothing happened worth mentioning on Saturday. Not a thing.

Saturday, March 20, 2010

Finding a port in the storm

-- Joey Porter has finished meeting with the Washington Redskins and has now signed a three year deal.... with the Arizona Cardinals? Strange. But it's a nice move by Arizona. I'm surprised nobody else stepped up to take a shot at Porter who still has plenty left to give as both a pass rusher and a locker room motivator. -- The NFL will put forward a suggestion from its competition committee to the owners this week regarding changes to the overtime procedure. By the sounds of it, if the team that wins the coin toss scores a TD on its first possession, then the game ends. If they score a field goal then the other team gets a chance to comeback and score, with a TD ending the game and a field goal sending the game to sudden death. If the receiving team gets nothing from their opening drive, then it's sudden death straight off the bat. All 32 owners get a vote and I believe it needs 24 votes to pass. Now I've had a think about this and I pretty much agree with the passionate response given by Rod Woodson on NFL Total Access, that being that there are 3 key things to think about: 1) If it's such an issue, why only change the rules for the playoffs and not the regular season? 2) Ok you lost the coin toss, but you still have the chance to make a play on the Kick coverage and on defense to stop the opposition getting into scoring range. That is still a part of football right? 3) You just had 60 minutes to get the job done and couldn't, fact. You played an entire, regulation length game of football and you couldn't beat the other team, so is it really that harsh that you lost in sudden death overtime? I think all of the above make a compelling case, but I appreciate that this is a hotly contested issue with strong views on both sides. I just hope that at least 9 owners feel as strongly as I do (and presumably Rod Woodson). Have a great day everyone.

Friday, March 19, 2010

A profusely witty title

-- TE Alge Crumpler, formerly of the Titans, has now been scooped up by New England. The Pats needed a replacement for the departing Ben Watson and Chris Baker and Crumpler is not a bad fit. There's a question to be answered over his pass catching abilities, especially in a pass orientated offense such as New Englands, but the boost he might give to their run game (think about how well he blocked for Chris Johnson last season) could open up new avenues for the Patriots, should they finally decide to supplement their passing attack with a proper ground game. -- Ndamukong Suh is due to visit the Lions for a private work out this week, following in the wake of Russell Okung and Gerald McCoy. As time passes, Suh seems less and less likely to end up in Detroit, so this visit might be a key chance for him to impress HC Jim Schwartz. And with Sam Bradford due to work out with the Redskins at some point before the draft (though he'll likely be gone by the time they pick at 4), more questions are being raised than answered at this point about how the draft will pan out. Increasingly the likes of Eric Berry have also been moving up draft boards of late, throwing top ten pick predictions into disarray. What looked like a very pedestrian draft just a few weeks ago is suddenly becoming very interesting. -- Charlie Whitehurst has completed his move from San Diego to Seattle. The compensation is complicated, but as I understand it the Seahawks have swapped second round picks with the Chargers and given them a third rounder in 2011. That's quite the jump for the Chargers, who will probably feel that they can find a starter with that second round pick, whereas Whitehurst was a mere third string QB. What makes this deal even more puzzling is that the Seahawks are rumoured to have given Whitehurst a two year, $8-million deal plus incentives. And let's not forget, this is someone who has never thrown a pass in an NFL game. The Seahawks picked him up based purely on evaluation of pre-season tape. And will Whitehurst even start or will he backup Matt Hasselbeck? I think the Chargers have definitely got the better end of this deal. In fact, the amazing thing about the Chargers is that they've had a great offseason.... without actually really doing anything. Odd. -- San Francisco 49ers GM Scot McCloughan is reportedly going to have many of his duties removed and given to other staff in the organisation. But he hasn't been fired..... yet. My guess is that this is either one of those "if we nudge him, he'll jump him" kind of things, or that his role is merely being streamlined to optimise his time and talents. Of course there is a third option; Jed York is on one of his crazy adventures again, like trying to move one of the most famous and successful franchises in the league from it's proper home to Santa Clara, and is now planning to move into the GM role himself. Please don't Jed. But we do need a new GM. The 49ers have been woeful for many years now and much of that has to do with the constant tinkering with the coaching staff. We need someone to come in and stabilise the ship. -- A while ago I saw an unexpected spike in readership and at first had no real explanation for it. Then yesterday, while doing some self research, I stumbled across a link to my blog on another blog, that of the man known simply as Brophy, a legend (of sorts) on the Coach Huey forums, who I regularly see making informative and useful comments around said forum. I so, I shall return the favour by offering a link to his blog for those that haven't seen it already. Of particular note is his use of video (which I still haven't figured out) and his talent for drawing play diagrams (which I can do, just can't figure out how to get them into the site). Anyway, here it is: http://brophyfootball.blogspot.com/ Well, that's all for today I'm afraid, not much kicking about in the football world and I fear that with most of the best of this free agency class done, it could get a little dry for football news in the next few weeks even as the draft looms ever closer. Probably a good time then to look at how the world of medicine can help your draft process..... Have a nice day.

Thursday, March 18, 2010

Charley Chaplain; the return of

-- All the draft talk in recent weeks seems to be centered around the QB position, but two names I haven't heard mentioned at all but who I really like are Armanti Edwards and Daryll Clark. Edwards is coming from the Appalachian State Moutaineers, as the only QB in NCAA history to throw for over 10,000 yards and rush for another 4,000 in his career. And this is why I don't get the NFL sometimes. There are all kinds of arguments you can make about systems and the quality of the opposition, but man, 10,000 yards passing and 4,000 rushing. That's pretty special right there! Projections seem to be anywhere between the 4th and 6th rounds. That's a nice 4th round pick if you ask me. Clark meanwhile draws my attention through one simple record; 22 wins, 4 losses, with 43 career touchdown passes at Penn State. Another projected low rounder. Possibly another really good QB of the future. -- Sticking with the draft and there's emerging evidence that the Lions could go for an OT with the second pick overall, with Russell Okung the most likely candidate being touted. The Lions have already acquired one DT in free agency and are looking at another, so it's possible they are laying the groundwork for a move away from Suh or McCoy. To put it mildly this would completely screw most draft boards. The Bucs' would still take one of the big 2 DT, but then the Redskins are likely to stick with an offensive player and so on down the draft till maybe we get to the point where Suh or McCoy, whichever is left, ends up outside of the top ten. Just goes to show how crazy the draft can be sometimes, as a potential top 2 pick a month ago could now fall right down the board. -- Yesterday I had a moan about Charley Casserly. Today, I'd like to have another moan. He basically went on air and without a shred of irony said that he believes Tebow is not worth being taken beyond the fourth round. Just...... ugh. Fool, is all I can think of right now. -- And talking of Lord Tebow, Florida had it's pro day yesterday. By all accounts, Joe Haden clocked a much quicker 40 time in front of the assembled scouts and his draft stock has possibly risen from a top 25 to being a top 15. Isn't that nice. It's amazing in a league where drafting the right players and paying them the right cash is so important, that a 40 yard sprint time can have such an impact. Keep in mind that scouts don't even care about official times, they base their judgements on a time they keep with their own watches, that completely fail to factor in their personal reaction speeds, which for the start and finish can equate to anything between 3/10ths of a second, up to a whole half second. It's just madness, ludicrous, folly of the highest order. The same of which could be said about Tebows new mechanics. Everyone was ranting and raving about him, saying that the new motion was much quicker and more compact. I'll give you the compact bit. But quicker? No. What all the slobbering coaches and scouts in attendance seem to have not noticed is that Tebow may not have been swinging his arm about as much, but he still paused halfway when the ball was retracted. And I'm not talking about the static drills, I'm talking about while he was throwing to receivers. He was cocking his arm back, pausing, then releasing. The trouble, as many lesser beings like myself (when compared to the elite of NFL scouts) have guessed is that Tebow has spent his entire career in a certain rhythm. He sees a player get open, starts his motion and releases the ball according to an instinctive internal clock, just like every other QB in the history of football. So even though the motion has been "shortened", the internal clock is still working to the old time scale, hence the slight pause. It was only quicker in a very artificial, cosmetic way. So will his timing get quicker? Possibly, over time (hehe). Was it an issue in the first place? Only if you were looking for an extreme reason to b%*ch about Tebow and justify why he shouldn't be taken in the first round where he belongs. -- Derek Anderson has landed with the Cardinals. It's going to be interesting to see whether he can find his old form with a better receiving corps (the first hints will be reports from the Cardinals training camps that he's out playing Leinart). I've always been intrigued as to just how much of an effect a good group of receivers has on a QB. Now we may get a living, working experiment. -- Rex Grossman has been picked up by the Washington Redskins. My guess is they want insurance so they can go and grab an OT in the first round with the fourth pick overall and then grab a QB in the early stages of the second round. I often have trouble reminding myself that Grossman is only 29 and not 40, as I have a habit of picturing him in my head (no offense Rex). And I like Grossman. He's inconsistent to say the least, but there is talent there just waiting to be drawn out. And if Bret Favre can learn to not be so much of a gunslinger then I'm sure Grossman can curb his enthusiasm for the deep ball a little. Maybe being in Shanahans WCO will do him the world of good. Either that, or drive him nuts. Have a great day everyone.

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

More like Charlie Chaplain

-- So I don't get it. The big knock on any small RB like Reggie Bush, Darren Sproles or Chris Johnson is that they're too small to a) pass block, b) run between the tackles and c) carry the ball more than 10 times a game. At some point, they've all been variously projected as only being capable of filling a role that amounts to being a specialist; returning a punt or kick off here, playing a little slot receiver there. Except that now they've all a) learnt to use cut blocks to take down linebackers, b) proven that their explosive burst is enough to help them squeeze through tight spots and c) managed to repeatedly carry the ball for more than 10 times in a game, as well as playing special teams, without snapping in half. And yet when appearing on NFL Network, former Houston Texans GM Charley Casserly commented that he believes RB prospect Dexter McCluster will be no more than, you guessed it, a specialist, maybe doing some returns and playing as a slot receiver. I can understand when people have disagreements over how good certain players will be or what's the best way to utilize a player, and sometimes both sides have a valid point, but this is just pure stupidity. God only knows why this idiot is part of NFL Networks path to the draft crew. I hope McCluster saw his comments and uses them as a suitable motivation to excel, and to prove that Casserly knows as much about drafting prospects as I do about cooking. -- Could the Browns be after a QB in the draft? Could they even move up to number 1 to take Bradford? It's possible. They've got the picks to do it. But I wouldn't recommend it. They could probably get someone like Tebow in the second round and with their various needs, mainly defensively, I think they could use those picks to stockpile some talent to rebuild their franchise with. Maybe comeback next year for a QB. See personally I wouldn't have let Quinn go, but you get that growing feeling every day that Mangini is going to be a patsy for this year, allowing Holmgren to install his version of the West Coast Offense while Mangini takes the flack if it all goes wrong, then Holmgren steps in as the saviour next year when everything's ready to make a decent run. -- I mentioned Tebow and tomorrow he gets to show off his new motion in Florida at the Gators pro day (and Joe Haden gets a chance to clock a better 40). But the general feeling around many people in the league and press is that Tebow wont be able to improve his draft stock, just break even. Now if that's the case then the question has to be asked, what was the f%*$ing point in complaining about his throwing motion? If he fixes it and that doesn't make a difference, then obviously teams aren't really that bothered about it. So why was he asked to fix it? Why was it ever mentioned? That was supposed to be the one knock against him, the reason he wasn't projected as a first rounder. And yet now he's fixed it, people still aren't interested? This is what makes me laugh/cry sometimes about NFL personnel people. At least have a bit of consistency with your arguments. Personally I think Tebow is destined to be a great player in the NFL. His work ethic, natural physical ability and leadership skills will serve him immensely. -- Ja Marcus Russel has apparently lost weight in preparation for this coming season. The point is, he shouldn't have been carrying it in the first place. -- Matthew Stafford is believed to have been involved to some degree with the Lions free agency acquisition of WR Nate Burelson, having urged the team to pick him up and even called Burleson to encourage him to sign. That's all good news as far as Lions fans are concerned. It means Stafford is interested in winning and in trying to move the team forward. It also shows that he's not about to sit around on his butt and just wait for it to happen, he wants to pro-actively pursue the dream. Nice. -- It was interesting listening to interviews of the two Eagles backup QB, Kevin Kolb and Michael Vick. While Kolb emphasised trying to win the starters job and being a team player etc, Vick was talking about trying to help the team win "whether it's this team or another team.." hint, hint. I think someone wants out! And to be honest, a second round pick in exchange for a guy like Vick is really not that bad. He throws a great pass, he's mobile and he's hungry to get back in the saddle and to try and win games. There are a lot worse guys out there. -- Joey Porter is rumoured to be meeting with the Washington Redskins on Thursday. Like that move if they make it. The Redskins want to run a 3-4 scheme and with Albert Haynesworth already lined up to fill the NT position and dominate the center, Porter makes sense as a fast and savvy outside rusher that just makes the Redskins D even more deadly. -- RB Mike Bell has agreed a deal with the Philadelphia Eagles which the New Orleans Saints now have 7 days to match. Though Bell is a restricted free agent, as I understand it the Saints didn't put a tender on him, meaning that they will get zero compensation if a move goes through. The Saints already have the tandem of Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush, so will likely let Bell leave. And if the Eagles get him, he instantly makes that offense better, providing a one-two punch with current RB LeSean McCoy. Bell has the added benefit of moving from one WCO to another, so the terminology and play design will already be familiar to him. That's all for today. See you guys tomorrow, and wherever you are, whatever you're doing, have a nice day.

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Dipping a foote into free agency

-- Free agency news to begin with. Well I say news, what I really mean is a mild ripple in the grand pond that is free agency. Larry Foote, formerly of the Lions, has now signed with the Steelers. It's hardly an earth shattering move for Pittsburgh, but as far as the Lions are concerned, I actually think it's a blow to a defense that needs all the help it can get. -- Caught some of NFL Total Access and Jamie Dukes' comments about Seattle Seahawks Head Coach/GM Pete Carroll (a.k.a the worlds greatest Bill Walsh look-a-like). Basically the gist of what Dukes was saying is that if Carroll fails in his role with the Seahawks, especially given that they have two first round picks this year, then that should serve as a warning to the rest of the league to never hire a Head Coach from College football ever again. It has to be said, sometimes Jamie Dukes can be clever, insightful, and forthright in his views. And in some cases, like this one, he can be a complete dumba$$. Are you really telling me that if Pete Carroll fails then that should put a black mark against all those other good coaches out there? And who will fill the Head Coach roles in the NFL instead? Guys like Eric Mangini, a.k.a 'The Man Genius', a.k.a the most over rated coach in the NFL today? Or Josh "I used to work for Belichick.... and that's my resume" McDaniels. The same coach whose first actions upon entering his new job where to ship out the franchise QB and then badly mishandle the teams best receiver, followed by the recent firing of Defensive Co-ordinator Mike Nolan who turned around the Broncos defense from bottom 10 to top 10 in one season? Honestly, if those two are indicative of the caliber of future Head Coaches that will be drawn from inside the NFL, then really the league needs all the College coaches it can get its hands on!! Ten teams in particular that need help are the ten teams picking in the top ten of the draft. Not so much in coaching terms as.... everything terms. But which team will see the quickest and/or most lasting turnaround? That's a good question, so let's have a quick look: - St. Louis Rams; Pick first this year and are basically in good shape no matter where they go with this one. It's either going to be Sam Bradford who the team will look to make their franchise QB, or it'll be Ndamukong Suh, who will make a big difference on a dodgy defense. The Rams still have a ways to go yet though. In HC Steve Spagnuolo they have a solid coach with experience of being on a Superbowl winning team. The trouble is they are almost devoid of playmaking talent on both sides of the ball. Lots of work to do means the Rams will probably be picking in the top ten again next year. The best thing in their favour is the fact they play in the weak NFC West. - Detroit Lions; Like the Rams, the Lions have a HC experienced in defensive football and with a track record of being on successful teams (for the most part). They're guaranteed to get either Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy with their second pick overall this year, and have made moves in free agency to strengthen their team defensively, picking up DE Kyle Vanden Bosch for example. They have their franchise QB in Matthew Stafford, a great WR in Calvin Johnson and a promising TE in Brandon Pettigrew. Even an average draft this year could see the Lions plucked from the depths of mediocrity and on the road to sustained competitiveness. It's unfortunate that the Vikings and Packers are just starting to find another gear at the same time, though I'm sure they'll be pleased to know that I think the Bears are just about to hit the self destruct button. - Tampa Bay Buccaneers; Is Josh Freeman the future of the franchise? I'm not convinced yet. At least Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez both showed a lot of upside in terms of their mentality last season. Is Freeman really that kind of locker room leader? And their team, is not exactly built to go on a sustained run of victories right now. Chances are they might get one of either Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy with their third overall selection, depending on how the Rams draft, but they need way more help than that. Coupled with their young coach Raheem Morris, who hardly has a glittering resume behind him, I predict bad things for the Bucs'. Very bad things. Could take them another three seasons to get fixed. - Washington Redskins; There are two ways of looking at HC Mike Shanahan. Number one is a genius of offense, who took Bill Walshs' Offensive scheme and crafted the definitive 90's version of it in, winning a Superbowl as an offensive coordinator and two more as the Broncos Head Coach. Or you can look at him as the guy that inherited Steve Young, Jerry Rice, Brent Jones, William Floyd and Ricky Watters, among others, while in San Francisco before going on to inherit John Elway at the Broncos, whose retirement signalled the start of an eight year playoff victory drought for Shanahan. Either way, he needs a QB, as the situation with Jason Campbell has got to the stage of biblical proportions of awkwardness, with Campbell clearly not wanted in Washington (despite not really doing a whole lot wrong). The Redskins do have the benefit of a strong defense that ranks highly in all categories. But their offense is appallingly bad, and it'll take more than Larry Johnson to fix that. I think the Redskins may actually get worse before they get any better. - Kansas City Chiefs; HC Todd Haley recently had command of a Superbowl quality offense and used it to good (though not quite good enough) effect. He has a reputation as being a no-nonsense type of guy who leads, shall we say, vigorously. With GM Scott Pioli on board as well, the Chiefs are strong at the top. And this off season they've already made themselves stronger, bringing in Charlie Weis as offensive coordinator to take some of the pressure off Todd Haley as a signal caller and Romeo Crennel to run the defense. Add Thomas Jones, probably the best back available in Free Agency, and things are starting to shape up nicely for them. It's still a little up in the air as to where the Chiefs will go with their first round pick and they have a few needs, but overall the Chiefs should be looking to make a strong challenge for the division title in the next two seasons. Watch this space. - Seattle Seahawks; Their QB is getting suspect of late, they lack a standout playmaker on offense, and they have no defense to speak of. They've got the luxury of two first round picks in this years draft and they need them. I feel sorry for HC Pete Carroll. He's basically just taken over a franchise on the brink of a serious nosedive. It's going to take something special just to set the ship on the right course, let alone getting back into contention for the division title. I certainly don't share Jamie Dukes' belief that the Seahawks can just bounce back in one or two seasons. Three maybe? It depends how their draft goes this year. - Cleveland Browns; While the decision to go with Jake Delhomme this season does smack of pure stupidity, there may be a reason behind all this offseason QB shuffling. I get the feeling Holmgren has his eye on Eric Manginis' job and is paving the way to build his future offense. Dumping Anderson and Quinn while bringing in two veteran QBs who understand his system makes me think that Holmgren is going to dip into the draft for a QB, maybe in the first round but possibly in the second. Delhomme and Wallace will carry the offense for now while Holmgren spends the season grooming his QB of the future, whomever that may be, possibly Tim Tebow. The other thing to consider is that the Browns have a young receiving corps, a great playmaker in Josh Cribbs, and by my count they now have 12 draft picks this year, including three in the third round and four in the fifth round. All that adds up to a potentially very bright future for the Browns. Maybe not this year but probably in the next they will be pushing the other teams in their division for the title and may even make it to their first ever Superbowl in the next three seasons. - Oakland Raiders; Years of mis-management and over priced contracts have basically hamstrung the Raiders for the foreseeable future. Their tendency to take players in the draft based on their combine measurables and athletic performance doesn't help either. Without a major change, I wouldn't be surprised if the Raiders are still picking in the top 10 for the next ten years. - Buffalo Bills; The only redeeming feature of the Bills compared to the Raiders is their lower wage bill. The last few years have been spent ditching basically every good asset they have. Safety Jarius Byrd offers the Bills a small glimmer of hope, but it's looking pretty dim in the skies over Buffalo. It's tough being a small market team, but it is possible to survive. What's needed however, desperately, is some success. Can new HC Chan Gailey provide that? There are some serious question marks. The Bills are offensively just a joke and their division has been getting progressively tougher over the last 12 months. Expect them to struggle mightily this season and I fear this franchise may move or even collapse before they ever fix their many woes. - Jacksonville Jaguars; It's been long enough now for the Jaguars to realise that the immediate future of their franchise lies with number 32, Maurice Jones-Drew. One of my biggest gripes last season was their under-utilization of this valuable asset (as well as not using capable back up Rashad Jennings enough). The Jaguars are an odd team in that they could really swing one of two ways. If they draft well and free agent acquisition DE Aaron Kampman can stay healthy, then they good finally make a run for a wildcard spot at the very least. But if Kampman struggles to stay fit, they don't upgrade that D and they fail to give Jones-Drew the carries he needs, the Jaguars could slump even further next season and end up picking in the top five. Their sagging revenue from a beleaguered fan base doesn't help either. And that, as they say, is that. For now at least. Hopefully I'll see you tomorrow and don't forget, if you enjoy the blog, be sure to spread the word around. Have a nice day.

Monday, March 15, 2010

Cheque this out

-- Let's kick it off with some Free Agency news. LaDanian Tomlinson has found a new team. The New York Jets have scooped Tomlinson off of the Free Agent mire and look to place him on their roster as mainly a third down back. And I don't get it. I understand the money thing, you didn't want to pay Thomas Jones. That doesn't stop you (to the best of my limited knowledge) from releasing him and then offering him a more palatable contract. And really, when you think about it, you've essentially just traded a 1,400 yard rusher for a 3rd down back. I know the focus is on Shonne Greene now, but he's young and was doing fine coming fresh off the bench to spell for Thomas. Ever heard of the phrase 'if it aint broke, don't fix it'? -- On the other hand, if it is broke, then do fix it. Fix it now. Like uhm... the Browns entire franchise. The Browns have unveiled their latest master stroke; trading QB Brady Quinn to the Broncos in return for young FB Peyton Hills and a sixth round pick in 2011. It's believed there is also a conditional pick that may change hands in the future. All I can say is, Peyton Hills had better be some kind of diamond in the rough. I know Quinn hasn't exactly coated himself in glory lately, but neither have the two QB brought in to replace Quinn. Seneca Wallace has been solid, but on a team with much better receivers (and when the Seahawks are described as having 'much better receivers' than you, you know things are dire). Meanwhile Jake Delhomme, who had no lesser a receiver than Steve Smith at his disposal, has been nothing short of a pick machine over the last two seasons. God knows what the Browns are hoping will happen. Their draft had better be something special to behold. -- The Lions have parted ways with their seventh round pick in the 2011 draft in order to acquire a backup QB for Matthew Stafford. And it comes in the form of Shaun Hill, from the 49ers. Guys, you're welcome to him. -- Chargers backup QB Charlie Whitehurst (exactly, who?) is being assessed as a possible candidate by both the Cardinals and the Seahawks. Whitehurst is a restricted free agent with a third round tender, so the Chargers have up to seven days to match any offer he signs with a potential suitor. If the Chargers decline, they will be due a third round pick from the team that signs him, unless the two sides can negotiate something else, such as a guaranteed later round pick plus another, conditional, late round pick. And so we move on, and now I try to convince you that paying high ticket prices and beer prices is good for you. Because it is. This seems on the face of it a stupid thing to say. How can paying more for tickets, beer and hotdogs possibly be in the best interests of the fans, short of perhaps generating some extra cash for free agency? Well, the answer is simple; it means everybody gets a turn. If I opened a brand new franchise and sold tickets to my 100,000 seater stadium for a dollar each, then in about 10 minutes I'm pretty sure I could sell all 100,000. The trouble is, how do I stop those same 100,000 people coming back next week, and the week after, and the week after, and leaving other fans in the lurch. I could setup a waiting list, but how long would each person have to wait? Two years, three? What if someone signs up to the list under multiple names and nabs tickets that way? Simply put, high ticket prices and high concessions prices make football a treat. A day out with the family to watch a football game can be expensive (to put it mildly), so it's typically not something you're going to be doing eight times a season. That means there are tickets spare for others to come and enjoy the game. Everyone gets a go. Everyone gets a chance to take their kid to watch the local franchise and enjoy a live game. In turn, this generates more interest in the club over the long term. More people in a city go to watch games, become fans, and generate interest in the team over the long haul. Everyones a winner! And now I'm going to be even more bold and play advocate for the corporate boxes that spring up everywhere. People complain that these boxes take seats from real fans and that owners are too obsessed with them. But let's get one thing straight here; boxes make huge sums of cash. A box can go for as much $250,000 per season. Just 100 boxes can therefore generate $25,000,000 which goes into the teams pockets. That's almost as much money as the Packers generated in total profit last season. Why is this important? Number 1, that money can be spent in free agency, contract renewals etc, and number 2, if the club makes a healthy profit the owner is more likely to stick around for a prolonged period of time without even considering the possibility of selling up and moving on. That way, your local team stays local and you wont find yourself cheering on your childhood team from the other side of the country. Again, everyones a winner! Including me, as I can now go and relax with a large glass of Amaretto. See you tomorrow.

Sunday, March 14, 2010

Giving it the thumbs up.

So there's been all of one grand move in free agency today. Jake Delhomme, the much maligned QB formerly of the Carolina Panthers has been picked up by the Cleveland Browns. The fact that this makes the Browns a better team is..... scary. More so if you're a Browns fan. But something even more interesting (to me at least) happened today. I decided to take my new Wilson NFL Tackified Composite Ball (which I can't recommend highly enough!) out for a test run with a friend who, to be generous, can't throw for %£$@. But at first I didn't get it. I walked him through all the motions, everything, and he seemed to be getting it all down and in place, but he was still throwing what could best be described as a Power sliding pass. I just could not figure it out. So I stood next to him and had him grip the ball. Then I showed him my grip. Then looked at his again. And Vice Versa. And then something clicked. Just for one last time I asked him to hold the ball, then compared it to my own grip. And then I was sure. I made one very minor adjustment to his grip, stood back, and watched a nice(ish) spiral come flying towards me. And all I did, was move his thumb down a little. And it struck me as odd. How often do you ever hear a coach talk about the placement of the thumb, other than just a cursory word or two about it? And yet it has such an important part to play in how the ball is gripped, how power is delivered into the ball and how you are able to move your wrist, both during and just after the throw. I really was stunned at just how minor this change was and yet how much of an effect it had on his throw. All that was happening was his thumb was too close to the tip, so as the ball came over the top, the tendency was for his hand to come over the top slightly palm forward and end up pushing the ball away like a shot putter as opposed to being slung away gracefully as if from a sling. All that was required to remedy the situation was to lower his thumb a little so that there was a distinct Ninety or so degree angle between the thumb and the index finger. And it got me wondering, how many others suffer the same problem purely because of this? Just remember, next time you see a ball leaving someones hand sideways, think about the thumbs!! Nice short one today. But tomorrow I'll take on the unenviable task of trying to convince you that expensive tickets, beer and programs are all in your own interest. Have a nice day everyone.

Saturday, March 13, 2010

It might work. Might.

Right, there's been some moving and shaking in Free Agency today, not a lot, but let's see what's been happening: -- LaDanian Tomlinson spent the day visiting the Jets and has apparently extended that visit overnight, which could suggest that a deal is being drawn up. The Jets need another RB in some form to back up Shonne Greene as Leon Washington is still recovering from a broken leg suffered last year and it's not sure when he'll return. Now this move doesn't make sense to me. I appreciate that Thomas Jones was going to be due a sizable roster bonus, but is LaDanian Tomlinson really going to come in much cheaper? They will save a few million, but the question is will Tomlinson make up for that saving with yards? He's still got a lot to give and behind that O-line he may even come back with a 1,000 yard season, but that's a big may for a team that runs the ball as much as the Jets. -- Hank Baskett spent last season with the Colts and now he's headed back to the Eagles, having accumulated the grand total of 4 catches for 28 yards in Indy. -- Veteran CB Roderick Hood has finally agreed a deal to return him to the Titans for next season. The Titans suffered early last year when much of their starting secondary went down injured before the first game. -- The Browns have finally made a move worth shouting about. A few years ago they made a run for the playoffs based largely on the play of WR Braylon Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow II. Well they lost both players, but now they're headed back in the right direction with the signing of TE Ben Watson from New England. It's a start for the Browns, but they still have a long way to go. -- San Diego have made a move to replace Antonio Cromartie at CB, who signed with the Jets, by signing former Jets CB Donald Strickland. And so the merry go round continues.... -- Larry Johnson has found a home for next season, backing up Redskins RB Clinton Portis. Not a bad move if you ask me. The biggest problem the 'Skins had last season on offense was trying to get their running game going, with Portis looking laboured at times. Maybe the introduction of Johnson will finally give them a chance to get some push on the ground. But again, that's a big maybe. -- Green Bay have finally locked up NT Ryan Pickett with a new deal. Pickett was a key component in the center of the Packers new 3-4 defense last season. Well, that's pretty much that. Thanks for dropping by and I'll see you all tomorrow. Have a great day.

Friday, March 12, 2010

Restrain yourselves!!

So, what's been happening in Free Agency today? Let's have a look: -- Erm, nothing, zero, zilch. Oh dear. In that case, now is as good a time as any to investigate a mystery that's probably been bugging some of you for the last few days.... while others, probably don't care. What does Belichicks decision to go for it on 4th and 2 against the Colts have to do with Temporary Restraining Orders? Well, I'll tell you. If you don't own a copy, go out and buy Gavin De Beckers book "The Gift of Fear". Buy a copy for your wife or girlfriend as well. Buy a copy for any brothers and sisters you have. Buy a copy for any sons and daughters you have (I mean it). If you have enough spare change, buy this book for everybody you can and tell the rest that it's a must read. I don't want to dwell too much on the book, but to give you a brief summary, De Becker is an expert in security and details in this book many of the main topics he's encountered through his career, sharing his insight as to how his company deals with various situations and persons, from stalkers to violent children to lovers that won't let go, and even mentions assassins. Becker demonstrates the difference between fear and worry and covers so many other interesting topics. A must read. And thus we come to the bizarre correlation between the Head Coach of the New England Patriots, Game Theory, and a court order used to ward off the unwanted attention of a fan/girlfriend/boyfriend/husband/wife etc. So to start what is rapidly becoming a muddle in my mind, basically a temporary restraining order is a court order used to restrict the access of one individual to another, usually setting limits on distance, time, places etc. And as we find out in De Beckers book, they generally do one of two things: 1) Serve the purpose for which they were intended, admirably. 2) Make a bad situation much worse. The key factor is to look at the history of the person being placed under the order. Normally harmless, law abiding individuals will tend to get the message and cease their previously relentless pursuit. Those with a past history of violence and threats to use violence will likely be pushed over the edge by the order, now feeling that the target of their unwanted attention and pursuit has won a victory over them and that they have no other options left on the table. Still with me? Ok, so why is this important? Because it affects the ways we look at statistics. We can call up some arbitrary number (being that I lack the actual numbers in front of me) and say that every year there are (X) amount of restraining orders issued and that in (Y) number of cases, the restraining order makes the situation worse and ends with the death of the victim of the pursuit. From this, you could quite easily say that, therefore, if you take out a restraining order against someone, the percentage chance that they will end up trying to kill you is (Z) or something like 1 in ABC chance of it happening. But the reality is that we know with quite a high degree of accuracy and consistency who will become violent and who wont. We can look at past form and analyse any number of variables to give a person a good idea of whether the case will be successful or not. Generalised percentages are of no use here. And now we come to the Belichick part. After his now much maligned decision we were informed repeatedly that the percentages were in his favour. I heard everything ranging from 65% (the most consistent number) all the way up to 80% (god knows how someone came to that conclusion). People went statistics crazy, trying to transpose all kinds of numbers onto the situation. The only one percentage I didn't actually hear was 50%, which was the actual Patriots record on fourth downs that season prior to that attempt. All of this is a prime example of trying to impose arbitrary numbers and percentages onto a situation that has many variables to it. In the same way that we can look at whether a restraining order is a good idea and assess all the variables involved without having to lump everybodies case into some fictitious percentage, we can also look at thing like fourth downs and make decisions without having to rely on calculators. We can look at the Patriots previous track record on fourth downs that season (many people were looking at the Patriots under Belichick, The Patriots with Brady etc, anything except the Patriots that season with that personnel), we can look at the Colts ability to stop on 4th down, we can look at how well the Patriots special teams had performed against the Colts special teams and we can look at the Patriots defense versus the Colts offense (many people glossed over the fact that the Colts last drive ended with a score only after a huge chunk of yards were gained on a highly dubious pass interference call and that on the drive prior to that, King Manning threw a pick). I think too readily now, coaches seem to be turning to percentages and people with degrees in applied Mathematics to make decisions for them, instead of trusting their gut instincts and looking at the facts that actually present themselves. Would the Maths people who were so confident in Brady still be as confident if they were facing the Steelers, who had a near 80% success rate at stopping offenses on 4th down (to that point in the season)? Or would we still be lead to believe that Brady was 65% all the way? You cant safely dish out a Temporary Restraining Order without first looking at and understanding the facts of the individual case and neither, I propose, can you go for it on 4th down without first looking at and understanding the facts of the game in hand. Hopefully that's all clear now. If not, feel free to let me know in the comments section below. But for now, thanks for your time and at some point over the weekend I'd like to convince you that those high ticket prices you pay to see games and the expensive beer you're forced to buy at the game is all for your own good. Have a nice day.

Thursday, March 11, 2010

"If I was the 49ers Head Honcho...."

-- Antonio Bryant, who I've been harping on about for days now, has finally found a home in Cincinnati. It's a good fit for the Bengals, who desperately needed someone who defenses would have to scheme for to take some of the coverage away from Chad Ochocinco. But the deal is what concerns me. I like Bryant. He makes tough catches, has great hands and is good after the catch. But a 4 year deal worth $28 million dollars? That's $7 million per year. I'm not sure if I want to chew that much cap for a number 2 guy. -- Kevin Faulk will return once again to the New England Patriots. Brady must be sighing in relief knowing he's getting back one of the better hard runners and catchers to line up in the Patriots backfield in recent years. -- Jake Delhomme could find his stay in Free agency short as he's expected to meet with the Browns today (Thursday). -- Derrick Mason, the 9,000 year old WR will be coming back to Baltimore for another year at least. The Ravens receiving corps now looks much healthier than it did in the playoffs, with the addition of Anquan Boldin and Dante Stallworth to supplement Masons, errr, experience. -- Terrell Owens was very gracious in a tweet he left regarding the Bengals signing of Antonio Bryant. Further proof, along with his maturity in Buffalo last year, that Owens has made a concerted effort to solve some of the question marks people had over his character. On a more bizarre note, a friend of mine asked me this question: "if you were the 49ers Head Coach (& presumably GM), who would you take in free agency and the draft?" Well, sounds like a challenge to me..... So we're assuming that I'm the Head Coach and GM of the 49ers ('cos I'm a 49ers fan). Probably going to take control of the offense in this capacity and install something very similar to the Bill Walsh style offense. So first off, I'd be happy to stick with Alex Smith, who did a great job last season, and by all accounts young Nate Davis was impressive, so we'll keep him too, but I'm afraid Shaun Hill is for the chop, because we can't be having a QB controversy. In his place comes Jeff Garcia. I still rate Jeff, who's spent almost his entire professional career working in a similar offense. He knows the calls, understands the kind of plays and style that we'd be using and can help the entire offense learn the scheme quicker. I'm also pleased to have FB Britt Miller on board. Miller used to be a LB in college and converted for the Niners. He showed promise last preseason in running routes out of the backfield, a big part of this offense. So the clock ticks down to the start of Free agency and I grab myself a nice cup of coffee and sit by the phone waiting for the clock to strike midnight. As soon as it does..... I'm off home, because it means I've probably been at the office too long. On Sunday Night I come back to the phone at about 11:00-11:30pm, a fresh coffee in hand and still laughing my butt off at how much money the Bears paid Peppers. No I start dialing agents. But whose? Well, I fancy a number 2 wideout to go with Crabtree so Antonio Bryant is on the list. I could do with a backup to Frank Gore, someone who might be cheap and preferably is a good catcher, so Brian Westbrook is next. I need someone to bolster the pass rush so I give Joey Porter a ring. I need a corner to replace Dre Bly so I'm also going to bring in Leigh Bodden and finally to seal up the back end, I call Darren Sharper. Yes, Sharper. See, I know I was moaning the other day about Sharper, but that's purely because people are drooling over him like he's gods gift to defense. Meanwhile, I take a more objective view of the guy. I like his leadership skills, I think he can make a few plays (though I don't expect 9 picks out of him again) and his return skills with the ball in his hands make him an attractive prospect for occasional punt/kick return duties. I'm also going to give Ladell Betts a call. He's from a similar system and can catch. I might give Todd Yoder a call and see how he feels about backing up Vernon Davis. Again, he would be reasonably familiar with the system. I might offer a small deal to Artis Hicks, formerly a Viking (technically still), as again he roughly knows the system, and let's face it, we need O-linemen. Kevin Mawae gets a shout for a veteran minimum deal, probably would start and would bring vital experience and confidence to our line. I'd also test the water on Chester Pitts. Coming from Houston, again he might have a passing knowledge of our offense. Providing the price is right (and by that I mean, very low) I'd see what Jarvis Green of the Patriots was up to, maybe come in and give our D-line a bit of stability. With our suspicious D still needing a look, I'd see what Keith Bullucks price was, and also feel out a vet minimum deal to Bertrand Berry of the Cardinals, who if nothing else will give us a look at the Cards D (and I think he could give more). I also might give Tyrone Carter a call, again looking for a cheap deal as a backup. So that's my free agent list dealt with. I wouldn't be expecting to pay out huge deals to any of them (even in an uncapped year, you still have to consider the future), so some would probably fall though the net, but I'm not breaking the bank for any of this free agent class and to be honest, there's no one else out there that catches my eye, not for the type of system I was planning. Maybe if Willie Parker was willing to sign on a minimum deal and sit as a backup then that's maybe one more. So now we move to the draft. Oh boy. So we have two first round picks here at 13 and 17. I already know who I want at 17 and I know he'll be there. The question is 13. As you'd expect any self respecting offensive minded coach to do, I'm going to go offense here, and I badly need linemen. Probably looking at any one of: Russell Okung, Bryan Bulaga, Anthony Davis or Trent Williams, depending on who falls to you. So that's number 13 done, but who is this certain pick at 17? Mike Iupati. I know, I know, every draft board going has him rated as a late first, maybe early second round pick, but again, this is where that whole system thing comes in. I'm looking at Iupati and thinking that this guy blocks like a demon, so could help anchor either end of my line, and a lot of plays in the Walsh style system require double reads by the guard in pass protection, and I think Iupati has the agility to make that a reality. He makes my team so much better, he's worth going at number 17. After that? Mainly the picks will be defense minded. I could use another corner, another safety and another LB. Maybe feel out the market for defensive linemen. With Aubrayo Franklin coming back I don't need a NT really, but I could still use some youthful depth. Corner would probably be my priority in that second round, but we don't pick till 49 so it depends as I want to get some value out of it. The trouble with this stage is that even by number 49 you're not sure whose on the list and who isn't. Add to that the fact that most teams picking ahead of us could also do with a corner or safety in the second round, and it means our personnel people had better be red hot...... We'll that's me done for another day. Still intrigued as to what possible connection there could be between Temporary Restraining Orders and Belichicks' fateful 4th and 2 decision? I promise, Friday Night, all will be revealed. Maybe Saturday Morning. Until then, have a great day.

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

A bit drafty

So first off today we'll dip into the latest free agency moves, then it's time to talk draft boards!! -- Jim Sorgi, previously of the Colts, has now found a new home in New York. God help them. -- Derek Anderson has been released by the Browns and subsequently lashed out at fans in the Cleveland area, noting the fact that they cheered once when he had to be taken off injured. Even for football fans, that's pretty cruel. And Anderson wants his revenge, saying he'd like to sign with a team that will pass through Cleveland soon (if he stays with his next team he'll have to wait four years maximum) and that it would be satisfying to roll over the Browns. Sounds like someone is fired and ready for a return! Anderson really isn't that bad. The Browns last season were. He's not great, but he's better than Sorgi or Carr. Anderson was replaced by Seattle backup Seneca Wallace. -- DE Jarvis Green has been picked up by the Broncos in an effort to bolster their pass rush. By all accounts, Bill Belichick was hoping to get Green back, so it looks like the Patriots will have to dip into the draft somewhere to help their pass rush. -- RB Thomas Jones has gone to Kansas, and it's not to meet Dorothy. Instead he'll be meeting Jamaal Charles, who impressed last year when he stepped in to the full time role of running back after the departure of Larry Johnson. It remains to be seen how offensive co-ordinator Charlie Weis will handle this group, as his boss and former Arizona Cardinals offensive co-ordinator Todd Haley is more of a pass friendly person. Whichever way they go, Jones is a tough runner and will bring a lot of value to the Chiefs organisation. -- As for possible moves yet to come, the Bengals have finished interviewing Antonio Bryant and now turn to Terrell Owens, who will meet with the Bengals today. Current Bengals WR Chad Ochocinco has supposedly put pictures on his Twitter account featuring him and Owens, which comes on top of his very verbal recommendations for Owens to join the Bengals. Bryant is due to meet with the Redskins later this week. Meanwhile the Cardinals are apparently showing murmurs of interest in signing Derek Anderson, who as I mentioned earlier has been released from the Browns. If Anderson was signed he would likely duel it out in training camp with current Cardinals number one QB (by default) Matt Leinart. And last but not least, LaDanian Tomlinson appears to have caught the eye of the Vikings according to the Star Tribune. LT and AP? OMG! Right, the starter is done, now to the main course. Best Player available or Draft for needs? Lets have a look. Best Player Available: So the theory goes that you make a draft board ranking all the players in the draft from 1 to 256. When your pick comes up and you're on the clock it's simple; you look at your board and take the best player left on it. Honestly, I hate this method. Imagine if the Eagles ranked all the draft prospects in terms of pure ability and when they got to their first pick, they saw the name Tim Tebow or Dan LeFevour at the top. Are they really going to take ANOTHER QB? Doubt it. And there are added problems with this approach as well. If you're the Dallas Cowboys then right now you're pretty much solid on offense. I really can't think of a need you have. Defensively you're still very good, but you need a few pieces to become genuine Superbowl contenders. So what happens if the top 5 or so names on your list are all offensive guys? Do you really need another receiver? Another RB? Of course, things change completely when you look at the Lions and the Rams. Where are their needs? Uhm... everywhere! (see coach, I told you the Lions were in for a ripping). You name it and these teams need it, except maybe the Lions can pass on a top QB and the Rams can pass on a top RB. But other than that, they really have little other choice but to just keep grabbing whoever is at the top of their board. I think this is where BPA comes into it's own, as well as with teams that are at the opposite end of the scale and have everything covered (which this year, is no-one). I just think that BPA has a tendency to ignore your glaring weaknesses. For example, let's look at my very own 49ers. Last year we picked 10th and took Michael Crabtree who feel to us by extraordinary luck. But as great as Crabtree is, and he will be great, it means we left another Michael, Michael Oher, hanging on the board and who eventually went to the Ravens at 23 (which was a steal really). I'm not saying that Crabtree wont help us, but oh boy could we do with a new OT. Our O-line is bad and without a good line, it hampers the production of both your passing and rushing attack. Crabtree is an improvement, but Oher could have been a difference maker. Drafting for needs: So basically here we're looking for the biggest hole in our team and then we're going to plug it. Whatever comes up bad, we need a good player to fill it. We'll happily skip over a better overall player in terms of end production in order to get a player that will fill a gaping space in our roster, possibly even hitting that same position again later in the draft. This is all about building a team. If you've never read "The Blueprint: How the New England Patriots Beat the System to Create the Last Great NFL Superpower" by Christopher Price, then don't, because it's really just a history lesson on the Patriots by a Patriots fan. The information in this book about the Patriots strategy could probably be gleaned just from reading their wikipedia page. In fact, the whole book could probably be replaced with their Wikipedia page. But there was one thing about it that caught my eye, a quote apparently attributed to Head Coach Bill Belichick that "it's not about collecting talent, it's about building a team". It might have been the other way around, but you get the point. And that's what drafting for needs is about. It's about building a group of players who will collectively win a Superbowl. Can you imagine if the Cardinals pick comes up and they go for a WR? Steve Breaston and Early Doucet may not be the greatest in the league but they're enough to back up Larry Fitzgerald. I have to admit it's tempting, when you look at some of the players out there in free agency and in the draft, it's tempting to go out and build an all Pro-Bowl caliber lineup at one position, but it just isn't good business for a team. You've got to understand you can't bust all your cap at one position. You've got to think about that big picture. That's where picking for needs comes in. Even if you see a tempting target on the board, if you don't need it, don't take it. Look at the Seahawks last year in the draft. Picking number 4 they could have taken Sanchez and started to build for the future, but instead they went for LB Aaron Curry and filled a much more pressing need. Building a team not just a collection for good players. As I mentioned earlier I think the Cowboys have things wrapped up offensively now, so they have a great chance to go out and draft defense heavy and make a real splash in the franchises future, instead of just accumulating more talent on an otherwise already impressive offense. All that said, there are two things as well I think you need to keep in mind: -- Depth. Of the draft, specifically. Basically what we're talking about here is the same situation we had last year concerning RB. There are a ton of great backs to be had in the draft, and really, if you wait till the late second round or early to mid third round, then you can still find a great back. This is something that's always tricky to judge and affects the BPA type teams more than the drafting for needs teams. If you have a great all round team and just need a back to finish the process off, then why not go early. But if you're looking for the BPA and it's running back, then you're probably better off just holding on until the second round. -- The glove that fits. This is more of a case of player evaluation than the actual argument between BPA and needs. So many times I think teams just grab a player without considering where that guy is going to slot into your offense. The perfect example is Suh and McCoy. Personally I think Suh would better fit a 3-4 team while McCoy will better fit a 4-3. The difference is marginal admittedly, but it's worth considering. If you are a power running team, I don't think C.J. Spiller is really your guy. This is something Bill Walsh apparently excelled at, finding guys that fit what he wanted to do. So that's that for another day. Later in the week, maybe Thursday or Friday, I'm gonna try to convince you that there's a connection between Belichicks' infamous 4th down decision and Temporary Restraining Orders, and then hopefully over the weekend or maybe Monday, I'm gonna go one better and try to convince you that high ticket prices and high beer prices are good for Football fans. In addition of course I'll be checking out all the free agency news each day and giving my thoughts. Thanks for reading and have yourself a good day.