Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Thoughts for the week

Time to spin around the NFL and look at some of the things to consider heading into week 4:
-- The New York Giants are in disarray right now. Penalties & poor play have combined to really kick this team when they're down. I think most people thought the signing of former Bills defensive coordinator Perry Fewell would spark the Giants D into life, but it hasn't happened. Their pass rush is almost a non-factor and they're struggling to keep teams bottled up on the ground as well. With all the weapons they have on offense not making themselves count either, it's a grim forecast for week 4 as the Giants host a Bears team on a role.
-- But how good are the Bears? Chicago is in the odd situation of being 3-0 without having put out a stellar performance. If Calvin Johnson doesn't fumble the ball as he gets up to celebrate his TD, then the Bears would have sunk to the Lions in week 1. In week 2 they beat a sketchy Cowboys team but we can't really take that from them, then in week 3 they overcome a Packers team that throws away yardage, scores and interceptions with penalties. It's possible that the Bears might be the worst 3-0 team in recent history and could potentially become the worst 4-0 team this Sunday.
-- The Bengals travel to Cleveland this week and it's here that we get a great look at Carson Palmer and the passing offense. The Browns are not what most people would describe as a solid pass defense. The expectation in Cincinnati will be for Palmer to push 300+ yards against the Browns secondary. If he doesn't, the potential for sparks to fly is high.
-- The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Baltimore Ravens this week and it has "defensive battle" written all over it, which is just my kind of game. The Steelers D has been superb with Polamalu back in the line up. The Ravens haven't been too shabby themselves. The question then becomes a battle of the QB positions. Which Joe Flacco will we see this week? If the Steelers shut out Anquan Boldin, can Flacco find his other receivers consistently? And what about Charlie Batch? He tore up the Buccaneers D but how will he handle Ray Lewis and company?
-- New England travels to Miami on Monday night with a big cloud hanging over their heads. That defense looks terrible. Chad Henne showed against the Jets that he can pick on weak defenders and make good throws when given time. With the lack of a pass rush from the Patriots, Henne might just be a deciding factor in this game.
-- Kansas City 3-0? You'd better believe it. The combination of Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones in the backfield, Dexter McCluster as a receiver and a special teams returner, plus some great defensive efforts from guys like Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson and Glenn Dorsey has made Kansas quite formidable across all three phases of the game. Not unbeatable - not by a long stretch - but very good none the less.
-- The Dallas Cowboys finally got a win on the board against a previously undefeated Houston, but how much can we read into it. The Texans were missing their starting left tackle which allowed DeMarcus Ware free reign to find the QB for three sacks and additional pressures. Can Dallas really repeat that show when they come back off their bye week (against the Titans at home)?
-- So Minnesota, where do we go from here? Brett Favre or Adrian Peterson. Someone has to take a back seat, so who's it going to be? The Vikings thrived behind the tough nosed running of AP against the Lions, while Favre still looked a little a unsure. The question is whether Brad Childress will stick with Peterson or try and push Favre in order to show he was right to bring the guy back for another year.
-- How about the Atlanta Falcons. After a first game loss to the Steelers they bounced back to handle Arizona roughly at home, then went on the road and took the Super Bowl champion Saints to over time, eventually winning after a fortuitous miss by Saints kicker Garret Hartley. Next up for the Falcons? Hosting a 49ers team that is rapidly spiralling out of control.
-- 43 points. An average of 14.3 recurring per game. What am I talking about? That's how many points the Rams have given up so far against Arizona, Oakland and Washington. Granted that's not exactly three of the NFLs powerhouse offenses, but for a Rams team that has quite frankly sucked b***s in recent years, it's still quite impressive. Next up for the Rams is the yo-yo Seahawks at home.
-- The Jaguars picked up QB Trent Edwards off waivers. I don't know whether Jaguars fans are laughing or crying right now. The idea that somehow the future of your franchise can be saved by replacing one QB who's been very inconsistent with one who is consistently not very good is bizarre. Scarily, it might actually work.
See the trouble with teams like Jacksonville, Carolina, Minnesota and Tennessee is that they all have great running backs - who you could argue are the best players on their respective teams - that they don't use very much. Of the approx. 60+ snaps each team has in a game, they tend to use their running backs on less than 1/3rd of all snaps. That seems like an awful lot of plays to not be using one of your best players.
Contrast this with Colts, who make sure they use their best offensive weapon - Peyton Manning - on at least 2/3rds of all their offensive snaps. So having a rubbish QB can be a big boost for a team like Jacksonville. It forces you to put the joke that you call a passing game on to the back burner in favour of handing the ball off to Captain Stud in the backfield more often. Thus by that bizarre logic, Trent Edwards may end up as the saviour of the Jaguars.
-- Mark Sanchez. 6 TD passes in two games. What happened to the useless tub of junk that was quarterbacking the Jets through pre-season? Where did Sanchez find these sudden magic powers of throwing? With their defense playing as well as expected without Revis and their offense playing much better than anyone ever thought possible this season, the Jets are looking like a very tough team to beat.
Have a great day everyone.

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Week 3 NFL recap

Don't you just love it when work stands in the way of an organised attempt at blogging? Still, here's the week 3 round up: Titans 29 @ Giants 10 -- There's an old belief that I believe stems from Bill Walsh that if you can just make 25 first downs, then you have a great chance to win the game. The Giants put up 26 to the Titans 17 and still managed to sink the game by 19 points. The Giants followed an increasing trend among NFL teams to put up huge yardage numbers without being able to finish the deal off at the business end of the field. Eli Manning was 34/48 for 386 yards and 2 interceptions. No touchdowns. All yards and no scores. Ahmad Bradshaw provided the Giants only TD, finishing with 88 yards off 15 carries. Vince Young of the Titans completed just 10/16 for 118 yards and a TD, but Chris Johnson carried 32 times for 125 yards and 2 TDs, kind of supporting my theory on giving number one backs the 30+ carry mark. On defense for the Titans there were three who stood tall in tackles; safety Michael Griffin (11 tackles and a FF), DB Vincent Fuller (9 tackles) and LB Stephen Tulloch (9 tackles). Bengals 20 @ Panthers 7 -- The Panthers placed the load on the shoulders of rookie QB Jimmy Clausen, and like a poorly designed bridge he crumbled beneath the weight. Kind of. 16/33 for 188 yards and an interception. I've seen a lot worse from rookie QBs. Still, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart were handed just 18 carries between them, one of which Stewart punched in for a score. Carson Palmer went 19/37 for 195 yards, a TD and 2 INTs, but was exasperated to see so many drops for his receivers. In the end Cincinnati went back to their plan of attack from last year as Cedric Benson carried 27 times for 81 yards and a TD. The only real defensive stand out for the game was Panthers safety Charles Godfrey with 9 tackles and an interception. Steelers 38 @ Buccaneers 13 -- Just as important as being right is acknowledging when you're wrong. Or nearly wrong. I nearly changed my pick at the last minute to the Bucs'. I was getting increasingly worried about the Steelers offense the more I thought about it. Turns out I had no cause for alarm. Charlie Batch only threw 17 times and only completed 12 for 186 yards. He even threw two INTs. But the key is that among his twelve completions he had three touchdown passes. Rashard Mendenhall piled on the hurt as well, taking his 19 carries for 143 yards (longest run; 34) and a touchdown. The Bucs' weren't nearly as lucky. Josh Freeman threw 20/31 for 184 yards and an interception. Finally his understudy was brought on with the game out of sight. Josh Johnson (yeah) went 6/6 for 67 yards. The Buc's only TD was scored by RB LaGarrette Blount (remember him from the Titans pre-season?) who finished with 6 carries for 27 yards and the TD. On defense I have to give credit to Steelers DE Brett Keisel for his Interception return... 79 yards for a TD!!!! I didn't think a 3-4 DE could run that far. 5 tackles and a sack for LB Lawrence Timmons was enough to lead a defense that didn't have much to do. Old man Ronde Barber led the Bucs' with 8 tackles, followed by a 5 tackle show from safety Cody Grimm who was featured in the NFL networks series "On The Fringe" this year. Well done Cody. Bills 30 @ Patriots 38 -- Question; name the Buffalo Bills first round pick in the 2010 draft? If you said C.J. Spiller (you did, didn't you?) then you were right. It's easy to forget bearing in mind that Spiller hasn't exactly featured in this offense this year. No longer though. Against the Patriots the Bills rolled him out. He took a kick off back 95 yards for a TD and caught a TD pass from Fitzpatrick. Admittedly his contribution really ended there (4 carries for 29 yards on the ground, longest; 19), but at least that was points the Bills normally dream of. Fitzpatrick ended 20/28 for 247 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs. That's not bad as far as the Bills are concerned. It also doesn't say a lot about a Patriots D that has real questions hanging over it. Tom Brady was his usual efficient self, posting 21/27 for 252 yards and 3 TDs. RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis carried 16 times for 98 yards and a TD. On defense, Patriots safety Pat Chung led the team in tackles with 7 plus an interception. LB Jerod Mayo bagged six plus a sack. The fact that the Patriots only produced one sack against a suspect Bills O-line further serves to condemn the Patriots pass rush which struggled all of last year. On a last note, the Bills have cut ties with QB Trent Edwards. Presumably they like the direction that Fitzpatrick took their offense in. And It's about time someone gave the Bills a kick up the a**. Browns 17 @ Ravens 24 -- Not the one sided affair that many people - including me - thought it might be. Seneca Wallace posted 18/24 for 141 yards and a TD. Peyton Hillis put in another strong show for the Browns on the ground, with 22 carries for 144 yards and a TD. Joe Flacco recovered somewhat from previous weeks, throwing 22/31 for 262 yards and 3 TDs. Of note was receiver Anquan Boldin who had 8 catches for 142 yards and 3 TDs. Maybe this is the point where he starts to emerge from the shadow of Larry Fitzgerald and establish himself as a true number one wideout. Ravens safety Dawan Landry led his team with 7 tackles and a sack, followed by LB Terrell Suggs with 6 tackles and a sack. 49ers 10 @ Chiefs 31 -- Do I really have to cover this one? (... yes) The sad fact is that the score does the 49ers more justice than they deserve. They didn't bag their sole TD till late in the game on garbage time. By that point it was already a done deal. Matt Cassel looked much better, throwing 16/27 for 250 yards, 3 TDs and an INT. More to the point he actually looked like an NFL QB for a change.
On the ground Jamaal Charles carried 12 times for 97 yards, and Thomas Jones went for 95 yards and a TD off 19 carries as the Chiefs put on a ground and pound display that must have left Mike Singletary seething with envy on the plane ride back home. The next day he did something about it, dumping offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye (YES!! Ahem, excuse me) and promoting QBs coach Mike Johnson to offensive coordinator. For the 49ers, Frank Gore carried the ball 15 times for 43 yards. Alex Smith threw 23/42 for 232 yards, one TD and one INT. Gore's 9 catches for 102 yards seems to say a lot about Smith's relationship with his other receivers. On the other side of the ball the 49ers were led in tackles by..... Nate Clements? The corner put up 9 tackles to top LB Patrick Willis who had 7. It was the Chiefs D however that stole the show. Interesting for me has been the lack of hype after this game surrounding LB Tamba Hali. If this were Clay Matthews of the Packers then we'd be talking "defensive player of the year" candidate already. Hali had 3 sacks (of a team total 5) and a forced fumble (on top of an impressive pre-season). All night the Chiefs were impressive, effectively shutting the 49ers out of this one. Cowboys 27 @ Texans 13 -- As well as nearly going back and changing my Steelers pick to the Bucs' I nearly changed my Texans pick to Cowboys. I guess these things even themselves out. The Texans looked horrible. The loss of starting left tackle Duane Brown showed big time as DeMarcus Ware romped home with three sacks. Matt Schuab finished 23/32 for 241 yards, a TD and 2 INTs. RB Arian Foster had another 100+ yard game, clocking 106 yards off 17 yards. But the Texans just couldn't find their way in to the Cowboys end zone until a fourth quarter TD catch by under rated WR Kevin Walter. The Cowboys however found their way back into a groove. Tony Romo threw 23/30 for 284 yards and 2 TDs. Most surprising was that the Cowboys finally brushed the dust off their running game and let Marion Barber carry the ball 17 times for 55 yards and a TD. They even let Felix Jones carry the ball (!) for 7 carries and 43 yards (longest; 15). The big winner was Roy Williams, who caught 5 passes for 117 yards and 2 TDs. Defensively Cowboys corner Terence Newman and safety Gerald Sensabaugh led with 7 tackles each. LB Keith Brooking came alive with 6 tackles and a sack, while DeMarcus Ware also had 6 tackles, but topped Brooking with 3 sacks. LB Zac Diles led the Texans with 7 tackles. Safety Bernard Pollard (6 tackles, 9 assists) and LB DeMeco Ryans (5 tackles, 5 assists) are also notable. Lions 10 @ Vikings 24 -- This game is the perfect example of why making picks is hard. There are two basic approaches you can take to picking winners; 1) pick the team that seems "obvious". So based on last seasons records this would be the Vikings. It also means you're probably going to pick the Colts/Steelers/Saints/Packers 16 times this season. It'll be successful to a degree, but you'll never see the upsets coming and you'll routinely get punched in the gut by certain under achievers (Chargers, 49ers). 2) Try and actually predict the inter play of the various factors on both teams. This increases the likelihood of spotting an "upset" coming (my Chiefs over Chargers pick from week 1) but it also relies heavily on predicting the approach teams will take to the game. When they don't do what you think they will then your pick bombs; often in spectacular fashion. Exhibit A would be the Lions and the Vikings. I was convinced that after last week the Lions would be tripping over themselves to find ways to fit RB Jahvid Best into their gameplan, both on the ground and through the air. I also presumed the Vikings would continue to abandon Adrian Peterson in favour of trying to get Favre and the passing game to gel together better. The Lions proceeded to give Best 7 carries for 26 yards plus two catches in the passing game. Why? Why in Gods name would you do this after his showing last week? Sometimes I think teams out think themselves with the whole "they think we'll do A, so we'll do B instead because that's clever!". Not playing to your strengths will never be clever. Something the Vikings had proved up till this game, when suddenly they remembered they have probably one of the top three running backs in the league right now on their roster. So they handed the ball off to Peterson 23 times and the result was 160 yards (longest; 80) and 2 TDs. It's a miracle! Who'd have thought that if you give Adrian Peterson enough carries he might just bang home some good yards and a few TDs?! Shaun Hill finished 29/43 for 237 yards, a TD and 2 INTs. Brett Favre was still not back to his old self, throwing 23/34 for 201 yards, a TD and 2 INTs. On defense, Vikings LB Chad Greenway led his team in tackles with 9 and also recovered an important fumble. Corner Antoine Winfield had 8 tackles and an Interception. LB Ben Leber also came up with a crucial interception in the end zone. Falcons 27 @ Saints 24 (OT) -- Drew Brees turned back the clock to last season, throwing 30/38 for 365 yards and 3 TDs. He also threw 2 picks which didn't help. What helped even less was the Saints turning back the clock on their defense to 2008 as they gave up 19/30 to Matt Ryan for 228 yards and 2 TDs, with no Interceptions, as well as conceding 202 yards rushing. Falcons RB Michael Turner carried 30 times for 114 yards and a TD. What helped least of all was a chip shot field goal miss in over time. Last season I was very critical of the Saints given the amount of help they received from their opponents errors to make it to and ultimately win the Super Bowl, so it's only fair to acknowledge the fact that they basically handed the Falcons this one in the extra quarter. On defense, LB Sean Weathersppon (watch list) led the Falcons in tackles with 7 and LB Curtis Lofton & safety William Moore followed with 6 each. The Saints were led by Linebackers Jo-Lunn Dunbar and Jonathan Vilma with 8 each. Redskins 16 @ Rams 30 -- Oh dear! Don't think anyone saw this one coming. McNabb faltered to finish 19/32 for 236 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. The Redskins rushing attack was all but a non-factor. The same could not be said for St. Louis... Steven Jackson carried 10 times for 58 yards and a TD to kick things off before leaving the game with injury. Back up Kenneth Darby entered the game and carried 14 times for 49 yards and another TD. On top of this QB Sam Bradford went 23/37 for 235 yards, a TD and an INT. LB James Laurinaitis led the Rams defense with 6 tackles. For the Redskins it was LB London Fletcher making 8 tackles against the team that he won the Super Bowl with all those years ago. Eagles 28 @ Jaguars 3 -- If you're a Jaguars fan then I sympathise. David Garrard threw 13/30 for just 105 yards and an INT. But it gets worse. 6 sacks took 51 yards back off the board, leaving the Jaguars with a net tally of 54 passing yards. 54. Meanwhile Michael Vick was busy thanking Andy Reid for his faith by completing 17/31 for 291 yards and 3 TDs. RB LeSean McCoy didn't have another burner on the ground, carrying just 11 times for 54 yards (good ol' Andy Reid) but the Jags at least tried to give Maurice Jones-Drew a chance with 22 carries, but he could only muster 88 yards. Still, that's more than Garrard contributed. WR DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin vied for Vicks attention, with Jackson getting 5 catches for 153 yards and a TD, while Maclin took 4 for 83 yards and 2 TDs. For the Eagles D it was a battle between DE Trent Cole and DT Trevor Laws for top defender, with both nabbing 6 tackles, but Cole winning with 2 sacks to Laws's one. Rookie safety Nate Allen continued an impressive season with another sack, with DE's Darryl Tapp and Juqua Parker getting the remaining two. Safety Sean Considine led the Jaguars with 6 tackles and a sack. DT Terrance Knighton posted 1.5 sacks. Colts 27 @ Broncos 13 -- Remember what I was saying earlier about the Giants meeting a growing trend of putting up lots of yards with no end product? That applies to the Broncos too, as Kyle Orton went to the air 57 times, completing 37 for 476 yards.... but with just one TD and one INT. Peyton Manning must have been watching and thinking "jeez, even I don't pass THAT much!". But Manning came close, going 27/43 for 325 yards and 3 touchdowns with no interceptions. Take your pick as to who was the best receiver on the day. Austin Collie led the Colts with 12 catches for 171 yards and 2 TDs. The Broncos were led by Brandon Llyod with 6 catches for 169 yards and a TD. Jabar Gaffney snagged 12 for 140 yards. Key performances on defense were Colts corner Kelvin Hayden (10 tackles, 1 FF), safety Antoine Bethea (7 tackles) and corner Jacob Lacey (7 tackles, 1 interception). Broncos corner Perrish Cox (watch list) is notable for the wrong reasons, having been burned for two TDs and fumbling a punt that was recovered by Justin Tryon for the Colts. Raiders 23 @ Cardinals 24 -- So close. Sebastian Janikowski was 3/6 on field goals for the day. If any one of those misses had found a home between the uprights then the Raiders would have grabbed an important victory. Bruce Gradkowski finished 17/34 for 255 yards, one TD and one INT. For a Raiders QB that's practically Manning-esque. RB Darren McFadden had another good game on the ground, rushing 25 times for 105 yards and a TD. Cardinals QB Derek Anderson hardly led the charge against the Raiders, finishing 12/26 for 122 yards, 2 TDs and an INT. Chris "Beanie" Wells made his return with 14 carries for 75 yards. Safety Tyvon Branch led the Raiders D with 9 tackles and DE Richard Seymour pitched in with 4 tackles and a sack. The Cardinals were led in tackles by safety Kerry Rhodes with 8, but the hat has to come off to LB Paris Lenon who had another good game, with 7 tackles, a sack and an INT. DE Darnell Dockett had 6 tackles and a sack, while LB Joey Porter put up 4 tackles, a sack and a FF. Chargers 20 @ Seahawks 27 -- In case you hadn't guessed, a running theme I'm harping on this week is teams that pile on the yards and yet struggle to convert them into points. The Philip Rivers led Chargers are the latest example. 29/53 for 455 yards is great, except when you throw two interceptions and just two TDs.
Compared to Matt Hasselbecks 19/32 for 220 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, it should have been a winning show. Hasselbeck even got himself sacked in the end zone for a safety to help out. But alas it was not enough for San Diego (and my pick) as they let Leon Washington burn them on two kick off returns for TDs (101 yards, then 99).
On defense the real impact was made by Seattle (they certainly had plenty of opportunities). Safety Lawyer Milloy had 7 tackles and a FF. LB David Hawthorne had 6 and a FF. Rookie Safety Earl Thomas had 4 tackles but boosted his performance by snatching both of Rivers's interceptions. DE Chris Clemons accounted for two of the Seahawks 4 sacks.
Jets 31 @ Dolphins 23 -- Probably one of the most fun games I've seen in a while, there was a great tactical battle between Dolphins offensive coordinator Dan Henning and Rex Ryan. At first the Dolphins abused rookie corner Kyle Wilson (watch list) in his match up against Davone Bess, but the Jets caught on and Wilson spent much of the later game tucked away inside.
Jets QB Mark Sanchez went 15/28 for 256 yards and 3 TDs. He wasn't a game breaker in terms of yards, but he made some great reads and throws on critical 3rd downs and in the red zone. RB Ladanian Tomlinson led the Jets on the ground with 15 carries for 70 yards and a TD (longest; 21). Chad Henne went 26/44 for 363 yards and 2 TDs, one INT. Ronnie Brown was the Dolphins leading rusher with 11 carries for 54 yards. Crucially again though the Dolphins struggled to get the ball into the end zone at times, nullifying all their hard work driving down the field.
LB David Harris led the Jets in tackles with 7. The Dolphins were led by safety Yeremiah Bell with 8.
Packers 17 @ Bears 20 -- Ho hum. So much for dismissing the Bears off hand. Guess I just didn't predict the 18 penalties for 152 yards. Some of them were ridiculous. I'd love to see a training film made by the league on how they expect teams to tackle QBs. I imagine it would be hilariously farcical.
Just how you're expected to make a tackle on the quarterback without accidently breaking the rules is beyond me. If you aim low and he steps away at the last second you get flagged for hitting below the knees. Go a little too high and your helmet will end up clipping the QBs and that's "contact to the head".
Anyway. Rodgers went 34/45 for 316 yards, a TD and an INT. Jay Cutler finished 16/27 for 221 yards, a TD and an INT. Neither team could truly be said to have had a run game of note. On defense, Packers corner Tramon Williams had 7 tackles and a sack. The Bears were led in tackles by linebackers Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher with 9 each (Briggs got an interception but Urlacher fought back with a FF).
So, there we have it. Another week done and I'm 7-9 pick wise, leaving me 21-27 over the first 3 weeks. Not good. Now if you'll excuse me, I'm off to go and put a ballerinas dress on my QB.....
Have a great day everyone.

Sunday, September 26, 2010

Week 3 NFL picks (part 2)

Time now then to finish off my picks for week 3: Redskins @ Rams -- Tougher than you might think. Both teams had a torrid time last year but both have taken strides to recovery in 2010. Sam Bradford is developing ok, but we really need to see more from the Rams receivers in order to help him out. Steven Jackson is still one of the best backs in football but again you look at the Rams depth chart behind him and kind of sigh. If Jackson gets injured then the Rams are shot, so naturally I think they have a tendency to be protective of him. The Redskins have a different problem. They have a lot of talented players on both sides of the ball. But how do they get maximum value from them? That's the question the Redskins are still trying to solve. They beat up on a poor Texans D last week, but they struggled against the Cowboys more competent unit. I can see them doing enough to come away from St. Louis with a win. Redskins for the W. Eagles @ Jaguars -- The Eagles are going to be a difficult team to judge in the coming weeks. Their offense still has a lot of great weapons but their defense is also giving up lots of yards and points. The linebacking corps looks positively devoid. The trouble for Jacksonville is that they're no better. Maurice Jones-Drew hasn't been the force he was last year and David Garrard is ureliable. I'm going to have to take the Eagles. Colts @ Broncos -- Like the Dallas/Houston game, I've struggled with this one. The typical answer most people would give is "Colts", without a seconds hesitation. But I can't shake this nagging feeling (would that be the same one that said 'Bills over Packers' last week?). The Broncos have a lot going for them. Orton is good QB. He has good receivers and the match up of Demaryius Thomas against the Colts undersized secondary is going to be a nightmare. But how will the Broncos D match up against the Colts? Pierre Garcon will be missing for the Colts, but that still leaves Austin Collie, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark to match up against a Broncos secondary that could be missing Champ Bailey and Andre Goodman (which you shouldn't be worried about having put Perrish Cox and Syd'Quan Thompson on your rookie watch list). The Colts have the superior pass rush in theory, but I just don't know. I'm going to have to say...... Broncos win. Raiders @ Cardinals -- Hmm, choices, choices. A struggling Cardinals team against a struggling Raiders team. An inconsistent passer against an entire offense of inconsistency. A defense that just got hammered into the floor by Atlanta against a defense that is used to getting hammered on a regular basis. I'll probably regret this but I'm siding with the Raiders. Just think that Gradkowski will tip the balance here. Chargers @ Seahawks -- The Chargers got a bit of their mojo back last week, while the Seahawks got a bit of their mojo sapped away. So who wins the battle of the mojo hunters? Well the loss of Ryan Matthews hasn't exactly helped the Chargers cause, but given the relative strengths of the two teams, I think they have more in reserve than the Seahawks. Chargers win. Jets @ Dolphins -- Oh boy! A Jets team minus CB Darrelle Revis and with a yo-yo at QB versus a Dolphins team that has established an early trend for dominating defense coupled with pi** poor offense. If Sanchez doesn't step up then the Jets are in big trouble, but if he can replicate his form from last week then the Dolphins will likely struggle to catch up. The Dolphins just need a spark from somewhere. Whether it's Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams on the ground or some big catch and runs from Brandon Marshall through the air. Maybe it's tight end Anthony Fasano with some great red zone play. If the Dolphins can just get that - some momentum on offense - then things will be fine. They'd bl**dy better because I'm taking the Dolphins. Packers @ Bears -- It's easy to dimiss the Bears accomplishments this season as luck; having escaped defeat at the hands of the Lions due to a dubious ruling and defeat at the hands of the Cowboys due to their ineptness. So I will. Packers win. Have a great day everyone.

Saturday, September 25, 2010

Week 3 NFL picks (part 1)

So, after two weeks I'm currently 14-18 pick wise. There's a good chance this week to shift those numbers into the positive and we'll start by looking at the 1:00 pm kick offs: Titans @ Giants -- Even with the benching of Vince Young in the last game, I'm still sticking with the Titans to be a force in the AFC. At the same time I'm looking at the Giants and wondering if my pick for them as the division winners in the NFC East was perhaps ill advised. They came out against the Colts ready to stuff the pass and they still failed to do that! Given as well the quality of the Titans D and I have to go with a Titans win here. Bengals @ Panthers -- I'm high on the Bengals this season. I think they have a lot of good pieces in a lot of good places. I'm low on the Panthers. I just think the Panthers have that look of being a team that is trying to rediscover who they are and who they want to be. I think in this game they'll find themselves as losers. Bengals win. Steelers @ Buccaneers -- I'm struggling with this one. The Steelers D has been all kinds of impressive so far this year. Sadly they're now down to possibly their 53rd string QB on offense. Which begs the question; can the Bucs' offense generate just enough to overcome the Steelers O. Neither team is going to score highly but who can just get that little extra? The Buccaneers will be expecting their rookie QB to face the full fury of Dick LeBeau's zone blitz. The Steelers will probably lean on the run to hide the fact that Charlie Batch has had little work with the starters on offense. It's a tough ask, but I'm going with the Steelers. I can just see them getting a pick 6 or some other defensive play that seals the game. Bills @ Patriots -- I've learned, I've learned. I really have. Don't trust the Bills to do anything except go 0-16. Patriots win. Browns @ Ravens -- Much has been made of the Browns defense this year. I believe they rank number 10 or so overall. It's at this point that I should point out that they've played the Buc's and the Chiefs. So I'll be taking the Ravens then. 49ers @ Chiefs -- Do I have to choose a winner? I do. Ah well, let's find that lucky coin again.... ok, so no coin. Well, the 49ers kept the Saints down to less than 25 points which is a mighty achievement in itself and they looked much better on offense. The Chiefs are the Chiefs. They've been bright early on in the season, but I'm not sure they've really found the formula for sustained success. I'm taking the 49ers. Cowboys @ Texans -- I have spent all week fretting over this pick. The way I view it is this; the Cowboys D is strong but so is the Texans O. The Texans D is weak, but the Cowboys O struggles to score points and finish drives. So which gives first? Will the Cowboys pass rush and coverage hold the Texans to a manageable score? And even then can the Cowboys O catch up? Or will they take advantage of the Texans porous D and find the endzone multiple times, storming off into the lead as their defense constricts the Texans? I really can't decide. Both outcomes seem just as likely at this stage. In the end though I guess I have to fall on one side of the tracks or the other, and this time I'm going to take the Texans. Just. Lions @ Vikings -- Given the fact I really like Brett Favre as a player and I really like seeing old players prove that the gap between them and the youngsters isn't as big as some TV stations would make out, I'm surprisingly happy to see Favre and the Vikings do so badly. Maybe it's because I got sick of the whole "retirement" thing or maybe just because I think Brad Childress is an a**. Either way I'm smiling. And I think Jim Schwartz and his Lions might be smiling after Sunday as well. The Vikings just look bad right now. Really bad. Not that the Lions D is light years ahead, but their offense certainly is, and the combo of Kyle Vanden Bosch and Ndamukong Suh will give Favre and Peterson trouble all day. I'm going Lions. Falcons @ Saints -- The Vikings and the 49ers both have relatively good defenses, or at least they did last year. That still doesn't stop me worrying about the amount of points the Saints are not scoring. In a similar vein both the Vikings and the 49ers have struggled offensively. This combination has led to the Saints keeping things tight. I think against the Falcons the dream of a repeat (you can't imagine the number of times I've heard people saying "two-peat". You mean just a plain repeat right?) will start to crumble. I doubt the Falcons will be as prolific as they were last week, but they can pull this out of the bag. Falcons win. And there you have it. Tomorrow I'll be back to round up the remainder of the weekends games and then hopefully on Sunday my picks will surge to success. Hopefully..... Have a great day everyone.

Thursday, September 23, 2010

Questions:

-- Can the New York Giants generate pressure from their front four? Against Indianapolis they set their D-line out specifically to rush the passer and they did a pretty poor job of it. If their defense continues to leak as many points as it does, the Giants will continue to struggle. -- Can Jimmy Clausen fix the Panthers? At a guess, I would say no. I think you have to give Matt Moore more (no pun intended) time to settle in as the starting QB. I see no value in yanking him from the field now unless Clausen is a quarterbacking beast in disguise, which is unlikely. -- How long can the Steelers D hold on for this team? Regardless of their QB situation, the Steelers offense really looks bad right now. Can they truly rely on defense to carry the day for the rest of the season? What happens if there are a couple of breakdowns during a game and they find themselves trailing by 14? -- Can the Buffalo offense truly get any worse? No. -- Can the Baltimore offense improve? They'd better hope so. The Ravens - for all their weapons - really do stink it up right now on offense. Like the Steelers they can't expect to ride their defense forever. -- Is Kansas City really that good? They beat the Chargers in week one and the Browns in week two. But how will they fare in the meat of their season against tougher opposition? Have the Chiefs truly turned a corner with their new coordinators? -- Can the Dallas O match their D? See the Baltimore and Pittsburgh questions for a similar story. The Cowboys piled on the hurt against Chicago, but they just couldn't capitalise. Their O-line looks terrible. -- Could Minnesota finish bottom of the NFC North? The Bears have looked... ok. The Lions offense looks good. The Packers are looking like we all thought they would. But the Vikings just look abject right now. Favre looks frail at times, his receivers are struggling to get open and Adrian Peterson is still too anxious to the hole. -- When will the Saints offense get going? They look a shadow of their former selves right now. Inconsistent is the word I'm looking for. And now with the loss of Reggie Bush things just got a fraction more difficult. What has happened to easily the most prolific offense in the last two seasons? -- Have Washington really come back from the dead? After a terrible season last year, have the Redskins truly found a new offensive leader in McNabb or is this just a lucky/surprising start before they sink back into familiar failure? -- Who is David Garrard? In week one he was Pro Bowl. In week two he was Bikini Bowl. So which was the aberration and which was an indication of what's to come from Garrard this season? Upon the answer to this question rides many of Jacksonvilles hopes. -- Is it truly possible that the Colts offense has improved since last year? How do you do that? How do you take something that good and make it better? -- Was benching Jason Campbell truly worthwhile? Having traded for Campbell and essentially said "this guy will save our franchise" what message does it send to the Raiders team now that Campbell has not just been pulled from a game but benched for the next one. I'm a Gradkowski fan but surely this isn't a good for the franchise the way it's being handled. -- Why can't I think of anything to write about either the Seahawks or the Chargers? Are they really that boring right now? -- How good is Mark Sanchez? Against an excellent Ravens defense he collapsed like a riverboat made of paper. Against a mediocre Patriots defense he looked pretty good. See the David Garrard comment for a similar take. -- How long can Jay Cutler avoid self-destructing? It's going to happen at some point. You just know it is. Tomorrow, 1:00 pm kickoff picks!! Till then, Have a great day everyone.

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Tuesday news

-- "Lombardi Watch" continues agains in earnest with this latest gem from Michael Lombardi. Essentially Michael is trying to argue that in the process of running their two-minute drill at the end of the game the 49ers should have treid harder to use some of the clock. This suggestion is just perverse in the extreme and the perfect example of someone comfusing fan talk for journalism. In fact it's worse, because if you read the comments section you'll notice that most of the fans actually do understand the difficulty faced by the 49ers. The first question that we have to ask ourselves is that given the state of the 49ers offense lately, how likely was it for them to drive 82 yards in just 8 plays? Could they really have anticipated being that successful? The second major question we have to ask is thus; what is the primary motive during a 2 minute drill? The answer is of course to work your way downfield whilst using as little time as possible off the clock. The obvious goal that San Francisco had was to drive down the field and score a touchdown followed by a 2-point conversion. Not knowing beforehand how many passes they might throw incomplete or how many times they might get stuffed for a small gain, the 49ers rightly had to use as little clock as possible on the way. The goal of giving the ball back to New Orleans with little time left was secondary. It was an afterthought. To expect the players to turn their back on years of training and mental conditioning in the two minute drill in order to fit this one particular situation is ridiculous. It's the perfect example of why I started doing this blog, because of my frustration that paid football journalists always seem to have highly illogical answers smothered heavily in hindsight. I'm an unashamed (most of the time) 49ers fan, and even I can't find it in me to criticise the execution of that series. -- My thoughts pause on a more sombre note for the passing of Broncos WR Kenny McKinley in an apparent suicide. Unfortunately I'm not abreast of the latest details at the moment, but suffice to say that it's a very saddening incident. I wish his family, friends and team mates all the very best in the hard times facing them. -- Ok. Moving on to Philadelphia now and Head Coach Andy Reid has stated that Michael Vick will get the nod for this weeks game with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Having previously backed Kolb for the starting role, it's surprising to see such a U-turn. Not that Vick doesn't deserve the job. His play has been outstanding so far. A few tweaks here and there and the Eagles offense will be rolling along beautifuly. But you do have to wonder what's going through Kolbs mind right now as he sees the starting job that he thought he'd won disappear into the ether. Can Kolb overcome this latest barrier mentally and continue to focus on what he needs to get done as the back up QB? It'll be an interesting test for him and one that should only make him stronger... providing it doesn't break him. -- The Jets are staying classy this season, following up allegations of sexual harassment of a female reporter at their facility with Braylon Edwards getting arrested for driving under the influence of alcohol. Edwards reportedly tested in at twice the legal driving limit. It appears he'd been out celebrating the win over the Patriots with fellow players D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Vernon Gholston when they were stopped by police, initially for having overly tinted windows. Just have to laugh at this. Three millionaires and not enough between them for a cab? C'mon. The worst bit is that the NFLPA doesn't permit teams to deactivate, suspend or otherwise sanction players for DUI arrests as agreed in the CBA. This is nuts. What kind of message does this send to young players and fans? I'm increasingly beginning to hate the NFLPA more than I ever did the Panthers. Have a great day everyone.

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Monday Night Round Up

One game left, let's have a look: Saints 25 @ 49ers 22 -- I'm always a little mixed when it comes to the 49ers. Yeah I got the pick but.... damn it!! Classic 49ers though, doing everything possible to prevent themselves from winning. If it's not interceptions then it's botched snaps, and if it's not either of those then it's muffed punts - or in this case - all three. Alex Smith finished 23/32 for 275 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs. A better day at the office than usual from Smith and he led the 49ers final scoring drive well. Frank Gore had 20 carries in the end, for 112 yards and a TD. I still think if you gave him the carries that Gore would produce the goods, but then I'm not the 49ers Head Coach or Offensive Coordinator (which in the long run is probably a good thing). Drew Brees was 28/38 for 254 yards and 2 TDs, but there was something amiss with the Saints offense. Maybe it's just because we're used to them putting 30+ points a game on people that anything below 28 somehow seems like a let down. Still, four touchdowns in two games is not a huge amount of offense. Defensively the Saints were led by safety Roman Harper (6 tackles, 1 INT, 1 FF) and LB Jonathan Vilma (7 tackles and a FF). Guess who led the 49ers in tackles? No go on, guess. Give up? Ok, it was Patrick Willis. Again. 8 tackles and a sack for Willis. Also of note was the sole other sack from LB Ahmad Brooks, who has seen his playing time reduced this season for some reason. Well then, 8-8 for my picks this week. It's on the increase and I have a feeling next week will be much better. We now have a better idea of where everybody stands and as long as there are no difficult clashes like the Falcons @ Saints then...... ah f**k it. Have a great day everyone.

Monday, September 20, 2010

Sunday Night Football

Time now to round up the Sunday Night action from week 2: Bills 7 @ Packers 34 -- I badly miscalculated on this one. The main problems were a) thinking that the Bills might wake up and use first round RB C.J. Spiller on more than just one carry and b) thinking that the Bills O-line might actually be able to do something. Anything. and c) over rating the Bills defense. Anyway, lesson learned. The Bills suck and they don't seem ready to help themselves either. Aaron Rodgers finished 19/29 for 255 yards and 2 TDs, leading an always impressive Packers offense. Defensively LB Nick Barnett led the Packers in tackles with 7 and was followed closely by safety Nick Collins with six, but it was LB Clay Matthews who really made the impact with 5 tackles and 3 sacks. Dolphins 14 @ Vikings 10 -- Thank god I'm not a Vikings fan. I'm an Adrian Peterson fan now though. Watching that guy bust through tackles and just keep going like the energizer bunny is all kinds of fun to watch. But if I was a Minnesota fan I'd be tearing what was left of my hair out at the play calling. Peterson carried 28 times for 145 yards and a TD, but he was on fire and could have handled more. On top of that Toby Gerhart was given just 4 carries. That left 36 passes for old man Favre, of which he completed 22 for 225 yards and 3 interceptions (also, loving the deep dropback whilst backed up into the end zone that resulted in the strip/score for the Dolphins). And this is why I didn't take the Vikings as many others did. Favre is obviously not on the same page as some of his receivers and Percy Harvin is not even on the same planet as guys like Shiancoe and Berrian. Need any more proof of the importance of training camp/pre-season? The Dolphins offense was good without being spectacular, but their defense held up well. Under rated safety Yeremiah Bell finished with 9 tackles and corner Jason Allen got 7 & 2 interceptions. Corner Vontae Davis recorded 6 tackles and a pick himself. LB Cameron Wake deserves a mention with 2 tackles, 1.5 sacks and a forced fumble that was recovered in the end zone by Koa Misi (watch list). Chiefs 16 @ Browns 14 -- The Chiefs failed to score an offensive TD in a game many would describe as "f***ing abysmal". Browns QB Seneca Wallace converted just 16 of his 31 pass attempts for 229 yards, a TD and an INT as he tried to rally his team. On defense the Chiefs were led in tackles by both safety Eric Berry and LB Derrick Johnson (7 each). The Browns were led by safety T.J. Ward with 8 tackles. Bears 27 @ Cowboys 20 -- You've got to admire the balls of Cowboys offensive coordinator Jason Garrett. You've got Marion Barber, Tashard Choice and Felix Jones at RB, a three way combo that many teams would give their right arm to have, and yet they get just 19 carries between them. Tony Romo finished the game 34/51 for 374 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs. Most surprising was Jay Cutler who ended up 21/29 for 277 yards and 3 TDs. Cutler looked poised and efficient, making some great throws along the way. On defense it was corners Zack Bowman and Charles Tillman who took control finishing with 8 tackles each and a forced fumble for Tillman. Cardinals 7 @ Falcons 41 -- God damn!!!! Somewhere in there we knew the Falcons offense was lurking. I didn't think they had it in them to pull it out against what is overall a reasonably good defense. But man did they prove me wrong!! Matt Ryan finally found his rhythm and finished the game 21/32 for 225 yards and 3 TDs. Michael Turner ran for 75 yards off just 9 carries (longest run was 21 yards) before leaving the game with a head injury and Jason Snelling carried 24 times for 129 yards and 2 TDs. This is the Atlanta we've all been waiting to see! Derek Anderson meanwhile struggled to 17/31 for 161 yards and 2 interceptions. Tim Hightower busted out an 80 yard TD run, but ultimately finished the game with 11 carries for 115 yards and that sole touchdown. Defensively for the Cardinals the tackle leader was LB Daryl Washington (watch list) with ten, closely followed by LB Paris Lenon with nine. For the Falcons it was LB Sean Weatherspoon who was the sole standout, finishing with 8 tackles and a sack. Buccaneers 20 @ Panthers 7 -- A week or so ago I said in a post "... and if young QB Josh Freeman can learn to use the quarterbacks best friend - his Tight End (Kellen Winslow II) - then there is hope for Tampa." Call it coincidence, fate, luck, or someone from the Bucs' spying on my blog (in which case, give me a job please), but Freeman did indeed go looking for Winslow who led the Bucs' with 4 catches for 83 yards. Freeman completed 12/24 for 178 yards and 2 TDs. Cadillac Williams also got in on the action with 27 carries for 51 yards. The Panthers meanwhile continue to be rubbish offensively. Moore was plucked from the game after producing 6/16 for 125 yards, a TD and an INT. Jimmy Clausen did little better. LB James Anderson led the Panthers in tackles with 8 and DT Derek Landri followed up with 7. But the day defensively belonged to the Buccaneers who generated 4 sacks, the most entertaining of which was LB Quincy Black stunting to the inside and getting a clean shot at Moore. Quincy also recorded 6 tackles, along with LBs Geno Hayes and Barrett Ruud. DE Tim Crowder deserves credit for his 3 tackles, 2 sacks and a forced fumble. Eagles 35 @ Lions 32 -- Wow. Somebody got some offense!! Michael Vick lead the Eagles to victory with 21/34 for 284 yards and 2 TDs. In addition LeSean McCoy ran (yes, the Eagles ran the ball!!) for 120 yards and 3 TDs off 16 carries. DeSean Jackson led all Eagles receivers with 4 catches for 135 yards and a TD. What makes the Eagles win all the more impressive is when you look at the Lions stats sheet. If it wasn't for their early jump into the lead it might have ended quite differently. Shaun Hill threw 25/45 for 335 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs. But the star of the show was undoubtedly rookie RB Jahvid Best who finished with 17 carries for 78 yards and 2 TDs, plus 9 catches for 154 yards and another TD. This kid is crazy good. I managed to find a couple of College highlight reels and you can see the burst and cutting ability clearly that was replicated in this game. It's just nuts. On defense the Lions have to be happy with their 5 sacks, including one a piece for DT Ndamukong Suh and safety Louis Delmas who led the team in tackles with 6 each. Kyle Vanden Bosch contributed 1.5 sacks. The Eagles were slightly less well off defensively, but credit to LB Omar Gaither for his 11 tackles. Ravens 10 @ Bengals 15 -- This game should go down in footballing history (I say "should" not "will"), for containing what has to be the single worst roughing the passer penalty of all time, called against Terrell Suggs as he chased down Carson Palmer. It was just beyond ridiculous. Anyway, neither team really out did themselves today, with the Bengals banging home five field goals to take the win. As for the Ravens they have to be wondering to themselves whether they've just been unlucky to face two good defenses in a row, or is their offense really this toothless when it counts? Flacco finished a disappointing 17/39 for 154 yards, 1 TD and 4 INTs. Ray Rice ran for 87 yards off 16 carries but it was little consolation. Carson Palmer ended 16/35 for 167 yards, while Cedric Benson pitched in 78 yards on the ground off 23 carries. The only individual from either team that stood out on defense was Ray Lewis, finishing with 6 tackles and a sack. Steelers 19 @ Titans 11 -- Just.... for gods sake!! This week I put a caveat into my pick for the Rams/Raiders game. I'm thinking I'm gonna have to start doing this for every pick. My caveat for this game would have looked something like "Titans win, unless a) Chris Johnson gets less than 25 carries or b) the Titans decide to pull Vince Young for Kerry Collins,". As it turns out, both would have come up trumps. Johnson had 16 carries for 34 yards, while Vince Young was able to attempt just 10 passes before being pulled after completing 7 for 66 yards and throwing 2 INTs. Enter then Kerry Collins, who threw 17/25 for 149 yards, a TD and an INT. No that the Steelers did much better. Dennis Dixon managed 4/6 for 18 yards before being injured on a designed rush. Charlie Batch came in and finished 5/11 for a whole 25 yards (the Steelers ended the game with just 7 first downs). Predominantly then it was about field goals, defense, and an 89 yard kick off return for a TD by the Steelers receiver Antonio Brown. Though - and I'm going to sound like a spoil sport because it was a clever play - I'm pretty sure the Steelers should have been flagged for having three men in the wedge. Defensive leaders for the Steelers were Linebackers James Harrison and Lawrence Timmons. Timmons finished the game with 12 tackles and a forced fumble, while Harrison had 10 tackles, 2 sacks and 2 forced fumbles. Safety Troy Polamalu was notable for earning his second pick in as many games, as was LB LaMarr Woodley for his sack, interception and forced fumble. The Titans were led by DE Jason Babin with 7 tackles and a sack. LB Will Witherspoon gets a nod for his sack and forced fumble. Seahawks 14 @ Broncos 31 -- Now this is more like the Broncos I saw coming into the season. Kyle Orton went 25/35 for 307 yards and 2 TDs. Knowshon Moreno finished with 24 carries for 51 yards and a TD. Corel Buckhalter had just 11 carries but picked up 19 yards and a TD. Rookie WR Demaryius Thomas (watch list) took to the field for the first time, ending the game with 8 receptions for 97 yards and a TD. In the end the Seahawks put up a good fight but Matt Hasselbeck could only rustle up 20/35 for 233 yards, 1 TD and 3 interceptions (including one by rookie Perrish Cox from my watch list). The Seahawks ground game was practically non-existent. Defensively Seahawks safety Lawyer Milloy proved that being over 3000 years old is no barrier to success, leading the Seahawks with 7 tackles and a forced fumble. Rookie Earl Thomas also recorded 7 tackles. For the Broncos it was Brian Dawkins leading the charge with 6 tackles and an interception. Rams 14 @ Raiders 16 -- Sadly Bradford threw just 25 passes, forcing me to stick with my pick of the Rams. Bradford ended 14/25 for 167 yards, 2 TDs and an INT. RB Steven Jackson carried 19 times for 75 yards, but it wasn't enough to overcome the Raiders. QB Jason Campbell started for Oakland, but after posting 8/15 for 87 yards and an INT he was pulled at half time for the man that is... Brrrrruuuce Gradkowskiiiiiiiiii !!! I love me some Bruce Gradkowski and his 11/22 for 162 yards, a TD and an INT proved to be enough. Darren McFadden carried 30 times for 145 yards to help the Raiders chew the clock and see off the Rams. Defensively the Rams were predictably led by Jame Laurinaitis who finished with 9 tackles and a sack. Safety Craig Dahl recorded 7 tackles and DE James Hall bagged 5 tackles, a sack and a forced fumble. Corner Jerome Murphy (watch list) grabbed himself a pick. For the Raiders it was safety Tyvon Branch and DE Kamerion Wimbley who topped the team with 4 tackles and a sack each. Texans 30 @ Redskins 27 (OT) -- I distinctly remember someone saying something about not buying into the Donovan McNabb hype (*stares at the ceiling and whistles). McNabb finished the game 28/38 for 426 yards and a TD, but was unlucky not to put another on the board. RB Clinton Portis may have only contributed 33 yards off his 13 carries but the 2 TDs helped big time. Sadly for the Redskins it was not enough. The Texans however are definitely the new Panthers, avoiding all attempts at deception and reverse psychology to do as they're told. Having rushed the Colts off the field last week they came back with just 19 carries for Arian Foster. To be fair to them, Matt Schaub finished 38/52 for 497 yards and 3 TDs, plus one INT. It's at this point that I'd like to pause and wag my finger of annoyance at the NFL Network once more, this time for practically releasing a certain bodily fluid associated with intercourse (there might be children reading) into their pants over McNabb, despite the fact that Schaub finished with more yards and two more touchdowns. Where were the Matt Schaub highlights after the game? And what's happened to the highlights with radio calls, which are longer, more detailed and more interesting to listen to? Anyway, moving swiftly on, Andre Johnson finished the game with a ridiculous 12 catches for 158 yards and a last ditch, game tie-ing TD. Kevin Walter came close with 11 catches for 144 yards and a TD. On Defense, DE Mario Williams came up good for the Texans again with 3 sacks. The Redskins D was lead in tackles by safety Reed Doughty (ten) and followed by LaRon Landry (8 tackles and a sack) and corner Carlos Rogers (6 tackles, 1 interception). Patriots 14 @ Jets 28 -- It was satisfying to watch Randy Moss take some of the wind out of the the Jets sails by treating Darrelle Revis like a rookie corner for his TD catch. Revis went off after aggrevating his hamstring injury, though I must say that's the fastest I've ever seen someone walk with such an ailment. In the end the Jets had the last laugh. Sanchez found his feet with 21/30 for 220 yards and 3 TDs. LaDanian Tomlinson (11 carries for 76 yards; longest 31) and Shonn Greene (15 carries for 52 yards; longest 8) pitched in well. It was.... unexpected to say the least. TE Dustin Keller led all receivers with 7 catches for 115 yards and a TD. Brady tried, but 20/36 for 248 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs wasn't enough. Rookie TE Aaron Hernandez (watch list) led the Patriots receivers with 6 catches for 101 yards. Patriots LB Tully Banta Cain was the only defensive stand out of the game with 8 tackles and a sack. DT Gerard Warren earns a note for his two sacks, as does Jets LB Jason Taylor for his sack and forced fumble. Jaguars 13 @ Chargers 38 -- I was surprised by David Garrards numbers last week. Today he was back to normal, going 15/23 for 173 yards, a TD and 4 INTs. Luke McCown came in but could only manage 11/19 for 120 yards. Rashad Jennings finally got some decent carries and went for 38 yards off nine attempts (that's basically double his normal carries!) which was enough to beat Maurice Jones-Drew's 12 carries for 31 yards and a fumble. Mike Sims-Walker led all receivers on the day with 10 catches for 105 yards and a TD. Philip Rivers was on pretty good form though, bagging 22/29 for 334 yards, 3 TDs and 2 INTs. After an injury to rookie RB Ryan Matthews it fell to Mike Tolbert to carry 16 times for 82 yards and 2 TDs. Malcolm Flyod led the Chargers in receiving with 3 catches for 95 yards and a TD, while Antonio Gates was left free to make 5 receptions for 57 yards and 2 TDs. Defensively there were a number of eye catchers. For the Jaguars; Safety Courtney Greene (8 tackles, an INT and a FF), LB Daryl Smith (7 tackles and a sack) and Safety Sean Considine (7 tackles). For the Chargers; SS Steve Gregory (8 tackles), CB Antoine Cason (6 tackles, 2 INTs, 1 FF) and LB Brandon Siler (6 tackles, 1 INT). Giants 14 @ Colts 38 -- Forget the score, it wasn't even that close. Peyton Manning was efficient on his way to 20/26 for 255 yards and 3 TDs. The most stunning thing for me was to see the Colts runs the ball 43 times. Yes, the Colts. The Indianapolis Colts with Peyton Manning at QB rushed 43 times!! Joseph Addai had 20 carries for 92 yards, while Donald Brown took 16 carries for 69 yards and a TD. The resulting play-action opportunities for Manning were taken with cold precision. This is how the Colts offense should run, with scary perfection. Brother Eli was not up to the same level though stumbling to 13/24 for 161 yards, 2 TDs and an INT. Ahmad Bradshaw fought manfully to take 17 carries for 89 yards. The interceptions however - plus two Eli Manning fumbles - were too much to overcome. That, a superb Colts offense, and two sacks each for Colts DEs Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney. For the Giants, their D was led by LB Michael Boley with 11 tackles, but a solitary sack from Mathias Kiwanuka was not what they would have hoped for against a team like the Colts. That then is all the results from Sunday. I'm 7-8 pick wise, with a possible evens banked on the Saints tomorrow. In retrospect I should have ignored any gut feelings I had - however loud - that the Bills might in any way, shape or form have challenged the Packers. The rest are, well, just tough. As I've said before, I always find early picks hard because of the difficulty in figuring out how the coaches are going to approach the games and how they're using their personnel. Give it maybe one more week then there's no excuses. Have a great day everyone.

Sunday, September 19, 2010

Week two NFL picks part 2

Time at last to finish off my picks for week two, starting with the Seahawks at the Broncos: Seahawks @ Broncos -- Always good to start on a tough one. The trouble with Seattle is simple; yes they blew away the 49ers, but the 49ers were woeful. Was it a lucky start or a legitimate sign of things to come? At the minute my money is on the Seahawks catching a break week one but not week two. I think the Broncos are better than their performance last week and certainly need a good showing to put a hot poker to the teams butt. Kyle Orton is a better QB than people give him credit for, so I'm siding with the Broncos for this one. Broncos win. Rams @ Raiders -- On paper you could argue that this will be a terrible game, especially given the recent seasons that these two teams have had. But I actually thinks this might be quite a good game, a dark horse "watcher". Both teams have a point to prove, in that all their off season moves (including those from the last few drafts etc) have been building towards some kind of long term perfect storm that we were all over looking. At the very least they should be up for kicking seven bells of s**t out of each other. I'm backing the Rams (on the condition they don't throw it 50+ times in the game, in which case my pick defaults to the Raiders). Texans @ Redskins -- Forget it. I'm mental, but I'm not taking the Redskins. No way. I know they beat the Cowboys last week and I know that I hate the Texans, but it's not happening. I shall not fall into the Donovan McNabb trap. Yes he is a pretty good QB, but it's still the Redskins offense along with all that entails. And besides, no matter what the Texans do this week offensively, I'm fairly certain they can over power the Redskins. Hear that Texans? It means that no matter what I predict you to do and no matter how hard you try to do the opposite, it'll still end the same way. So please kindly produce a repeat of the offense that nailed the Colts last week. Texans win. Patriots @ Jets -- I'm now officially sick of hearing about "Revis island". As many others have pointed out, some with access to the NFLs "all 22" film, there really is no Revis Island. Revis has received just as much safety help as a number of other corners in the league. In addition this whole business that Revis might have a minor hamstring injury heading into the game sounds like a perfect excuse to cover the use of a safety over the top of Revis and/or to hide his blushes should Moss come out and tear Revis a new one. Given the amount of smack talk we've had from the Jets, coupled with Revis calling Moss a slouch, it's no wonder that they're anxious of the possibility that the Patriots might be about to drown them in points. Especially as the Patriots are looking red hot right now. Patriots win. Jaguars @ Chargers -- I have absolutely no clue. I don't particularly fancy either team to be honest, but I probably fancy the Jaguars just a bit less. I can see the Chargers bringing rookie Ryan Matthews more into the game, which will be a big positive for San Diego. Chargers win. Giants @ Colts -- For some reason everyone seems to believe that Peyton Manning and the Colts are going to win this week based purely off the fact that the last time the Colts lost their opening two games was way back in Mannings rookie year. Well I'm sorry, but there are plenty of better reasons to suggest that the Colts will lose this one like; their poor run defense, the strong Giants pass rush, because I hate Peyton Manning (ok, so that's not a valid reason). Anyway, I don't think people are giving the Giants anywhere near enough credit. Giants win. Saints @ 49ers -- Give me a break. It's bad enough that this week we've been privy to a very open and ugly bust up in the 49ers organisation, which Mike Singletary has tried - and completely failed - to cover up. But now we have to play New Orleans? As much as I felt the Saints Super bowl run/win from last year was the product of an incredibly fluky series of games to even get them into the playoffs, I still respect Drew Brees and their offense (just not the defense). Given then how bad the 49ers D looked last week, coupled with the fact that our offense has possibly got worse since last year (no, I didn't think it could either) and I'm afraid I'm going to have to go against my team this week. Saints win. And there we have it, all my week 2 picks done. Honestly speaking, I'm incredibly uncomfortable with a lot of them. There are plenty of games that really could be decided by just a single big play, while many of those team are still unsure about who they are this year and how they're going to play. That's going to cause pick problems probably all the way up to about week four I'd imagine. Still, must press on. Nothing ventured, nothing gained, as they say. Have a great day everyone.

Friday, September 17, 2010

Week 2 NFL picks

Thursday night is pick 'em night, at least as far as the 1:00 pm kick offs are concerned: Bills @ Packers -- As odd as this may sound, I actually had to have a think about this one. The gut reaction is to just say "Packers" and move on. But the Packers have lost RB Ryan Grant, a key component of their offense last year. And this is a Bills D that can match up with some of the best against the pass. The question then is this; can the Bills offense generate enough yards and points against a very good Packers D to off set any shortcomings in their defense. And you know, I just can't let go of this nagging feeling that everything has changed for the Packers. Their offensive make up has been altered and that eventually has a spill over effect on their D. Ultimately I had the same nagging feeling about the Chiefs/Chargers game last week, so against my better judgement I'm going to take the hit and say Bills win. Dolphins @ Vikings -- I've learnt my lesson, I think, with regards to the Vikings. They love Brett Favre. Brett Favre loves Brett Favre. They seem to have gone very cold on Adrian Peterson. As much as I am very suspicious of the Dolphins offense, I'm backing them to get it done. Dolphins win. Chiefs @ Browns -- Chances are that Jake Delhomme might not play. That's a good thing for the Browns. That means Seneca Wallace steps in and runs a more efficient Browns offense. The Chiefs will still be the Chiefs, which means a struggle at times to cover receivers and a lack lustre pass offense. Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles still offer a big threat, but I just get that feeling that the Browns will have more in the tank. Browns win. Bears @ Cowboys -- I. Do Not. Trust. The Cowboys. Offense. It's that simple. I'm not exactly raving about the Bears either, but I have serious questions about the Cowboys tackle combo of Doug Free and Alex Barron. Not that the Bears O-line inspires effusive confidence either. I don't know what it is about this week, but the games seem to be quite hard to pick. I remember last year being much more clean cut. Hmmm, I'm going to have to back the Bears. And that's just about as damning an indictment of the Cowboys as you can get. Cardinals @ Falcons -- Ohh this is ugly! The Falcons against the Cardinals is not a game I would relish sitting down and watching. Personally I'm inclined to say that Cardinals safety Adrian Wilson will once again have a great game.... and not get the accolades he deserves come the seasons end. I just don't see the Falcons posing the threat I would have expected out of them coming into this season. They've been incredibly flat offensively throughout the pre-season and into week 1, though their defense has luckily tightened down and kept them in games. Not this Sunday though. Cardinals win. Buccaneers @ Panthers -- The Panthers are a tricky team to call in this game. With Matt Moore likely to sit after suffering a concussion in week one, that means Jimmy Clausen is handed the reins for week two. That throws up two potential scenarios; a) the Panthers come out throwing and Clausen self destructs against an improved Bucs' defense, or b) they hide the rookie behind their rushing attack and pound a Bucs' D that even now still appears to struggle against the run. My money is on the Panthers doing the safe thing and running this one out. Please Carolina, don't let me down. Panthers win. Eagles @ Lions -- Eagles win. Next. Ravens @ Bengals -- Ahh crap. How do I pick this one? Truth is I like both teams equally. I like the Ravens O. I like the Bengals O. I like the Bengals D. I like the Ravens D. I like everyboDy. But I think I like the Bengals a little more. This was tough as nails to pick and ultimately it came down to the corner back position. With Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall I feel the Bengals have a little more to offer back there than the Ravens do. That said the Ravens front seven is probably better so it all kind of adds up. Ah hell, I'm sticking with the Bengals. Steelers @ Titans -- Another toughie. The Steelers run defense is very good. Their front seven is one of the best in the league at putting the stopper on opposition running backs without the need of safety help. But then the Titans D is proving quite mean itself. Dennis Dixon will be scrambling for his life most of the game given the match up of the Steelers O-line against the Titans pass rush. I think this one will be settled by offense, and the Titans just have more to offer in that department. Titans win. Let the disaster begin!! I'm not entirely happy with the Bills over the Packers, the Bears over the Vikings or the Browns over the Chiefs, but that's life. Some times when you sit down and look at things, everything seems to suggest one team over another. But football is a very fickle game. It's prone to wild swings in unexpected ways. I'm sure I was among the minority in picking the Chiefs over the Chargers, but at times you can just see match ups that might be favourable. The biggest problem - at least from my perspective - is trying to guess how coaches will game plan for the coming opponent and what kind of run/pass balance they will go with. This was aptly demonstrated by the Panthers last year. Trying to get into the mind of John Fox was like a 5 year old trying to get into a strip club. That just adds to the already difficult job of comparing match ups, etc. Anyway, enough complaining. I'm off out to grab a beer and I'll be back tomorrow to share my picks for the rest of the weekends games. Till then, Have a great day everyone.

Thoughts for the week

I promised a fantastic and well thought out article on some subject. Unfortunately you're left with this:
  • Watching back the video of Chris Johnson vs. the Raiders, the most interesting thing for me was the way he ran behind his pads, often cutting back into the middle and earning those tough yards. Last year he sometimes had a tendency to hide behind a blocker and keep working to the sideline. That did produce him some big gains, but there was also times when the Titans just needed him to get North/South and instead he got stuffed. It's a testament to his character and maturity that he has gone away in the off season and developed his game further, despite being the leading back in the NFL last year.

  • The Miami Dolphins, the Dallas Cowboys and the Atlanta Falcons all have serious questions to answer on offense. These are three teams that had high expectations for their offenses to have a prolific year and have failed to live up to that promise. Even in the pre-season they struggled to score points. This week they at least need to start looking like they might put the ball in the end zone, or you can expect the media to ramp up the pressure and for fissures between offense and defense to start forming in their locker rooms.

  • The 49ers secondary was supposed to be more organised this year. They were going to finally support Patrick Willis and the rest of the front seven. But they struggled mightily against Seattle and I can't imagine Mike Singletary was best pleased. Still, as long as they don't have to play New Orleans any time soon......... ah f**k!

  • Having seen Michael Vick gash the Packers for over a hundred yards, could the unthinkable happen; could Andy Reid start running the ball more? Will he see the possibilities? I doubt it.

  • And talking of Andy Reid, his poor game management is legendary. I found a great article covering this on NFL.com. What was shocking for me was that it was written by Michael "did I ever tell you about my time with Bill Walsh?" Lombardi. Yes, Michael Lombardi wrote a good article. Don't say I never give credit where it is due.

Right, I shall be back tomorrow with some picks for the weekend ahead. Hopefully this week I'll go a little better than my abysmal 6-10. Hopefully.....

Have a great day everyone.