Sharks in the water

Sparano is safe. For now at least it seems the Dolphins have decided to stick with Tony for another year. That leaves the door open for the 49ers to pounce uncontested on Jim Harbaugh. That is of course if they can convince Harbaugh to leave Stanford, which is something that his QB Andrew Luck is not quite ready to do just yet, returning for another year with the Cardinal (must... resist... temptation... to pluralise....). With Sparano returning, we've also now learned that Dan Henning, the offensive coordinator, won't. Henning oversaw a sketchy offense in Miami this year. Chad Henne seemed to regress as the season went along and there was almost no talk of running backs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams who faded into the dust it would seem. The Cowboys meanwhile have now officially promoted Jason Garrett to the position of permanent Head Coach (God help him), having conducted all the necessary token interviews of black coaches. The Vikings Head Coach for 2011, Leslie Frazier, is also quite busy. Reports from the press indicate that the Vikings have interviews lined up with former 49ers Head Coach Mike Singletary, possibly just to come in as a linebackers coach, along with an interview for former Broncos top man Josh McDaniels to be the offensive coordinator. Two hires that sound surprisingly wise for the Vikings. Wise is not the choice of words I would use though for the latest outburst from Chad Ochocinco. According to ProFootballTalk.com, Ochocinco went for the publicity jugular by saying that race is the determining reason why a guy like Favre would be paid $4 million to come back for another season, but why nobody would give Owens or Ochocinco $4 million. At first I was like "no way, no way did he say something that stupid!!". Then I watched the video..... What the hell Chad? The only thing I can think of was that he was going for the shock factor. In fact, this next video might suggest that's precisely what Ochocinco was going for. At least, I hope it was. On a side note, NFL.com really needs to get one of its web designer/engineer type people to check out Versus.com's site, with particular attention to the video. Look!! The videos load at a normal rate without constant lag! I can click anywhere along the time bar and the video instantly jumps to, and plays from, that point without having to reload the entire damn video! There are less adverts, and God knows the Versus network must need the revenue money more than the NFL. And I can embed the videos! That means I can show people their content which is more likely to drive pageviews back to their site! It's a miracle isn't it NFL.com? To provide a decent (and profitable) service for your fans/customers/potential customers without being assholes. You should try it sometime.

Happy Birthday to me

To start with today, technically it's my birthday now (January 5th) so Happy Birthday to me. Now to truly begin, it occurred to me that the other day I praised Michael Lombardi for the greatly improved quality of his articles on NFL.com, but I never mentioned who I thought was the best, most consistent writer over the course of the year. That award would go to Jason Whitlock of FOXsports.com. Whitlock may not be every body's cup of tea so to speak, but personally I find his articles and attitude very engaging. I like the fact that he doesn't pull any punches and unlike many who write for the major networks, he has no problem blowing up the leagues official line on various subjects, especially when they're trying to curry favour with the fans. So if Whitlock is the best and Lombardi is the most improved, who might be an upcoming face to look out for next year? That would fall to Albert Breer, also of NFL.com. For an example of his work, check out this recent article. Next, coaching news. To go along with the firing's of Mike Singletary, Wade Phillips, Brad Childress & Josh McDaniels, as well as the end of John Fox's tenure in Carolina, we now have the release of Eric Mangini by Cleveland and most recently the surprise (at least to me) firing of Tom Cable by the Raiders. Next in line could be Coach Tony Sporano of the Dolphins, with multiple news outlets suggesting that the Dolphins are extending feelers towards Stanford Head Coach Jim Harbaugh. Apparently Dolphins owner Stephen Ross was present at the Orange Bowl to watch Stanford put down Virginia Tech. If Sporano goes that would make eight teams with new Head Coaches for 2011. What was that we've told for the last month or more by the networks about a lack of coaching changes being made due to CBA uncertainty? Busted. Marvin Lewis of the Bengals will be keeping his spot though, with a two year extension apparently signed. To be honest, the Singletary, Childress and Philips firings I could see coming, but I'm not sure about some of the others. Josh McDaniels had his difficulties but he was putting together quite the offense I thought. Certainly no worse than the Texans under Gary Kubiak, and with more promise for the future in their roster. John Fox leaving was practically a gimme, but Eric Mangini? I know I'm not a huge Mangini fan, which makes this all the more surprising, but I kind of got the impression that in his second year Mangini was just starting to get his head around this whole head coaching thing. His demeanour, the way he spoke in interviews, the changes made to the team. I was shocked that Mangini wasn't allowed to come back for another crack of the whip in 2011. And I never thought I'd say this but.... I think Mangini might be a hot candidate for making a Super Bowl in the 20-teens. There, I said it. But now we really get down to it with Tom Cable. Are you kidding me? Tom Cable?! The same Tom Cable who looked to be turning the corner with the Raiders (finally)? The same Tom Cable who was just starting to figure out where his team was at on offense? The Tom Cable who was getting Jacoby Ford more and more involved? The same Tom Cable who was fashioning a strong ground game around Darren McFadden and Michael Bush? I feel sorry for Tom and I hope he gets a good gig for 2011. He, like Mangini, appeared to have finally found his feet and style as a Head Coach, which is the first step towards big things. Cable could be another hot shot for a Super Bowl coach in the coming 20-teens.

Thoughts for the week

I promised a fantastic and well thought out article on some subject. Unfortunately you're left with this:

• Watching back the video of Chris Johnson vs. the Raiders, the most interesting thing for me was the way he ran behind his pads, often cutting back into the middle and earning those tough yards. Last year he sometimes had a tendency to hide behind a blocker and keep working to the sideline. That did produce him some big gains, but there was also times when the Titans just needed him to get North/South and instead he got stuffed. It's a testament to his character and maturity that he has gone away in the off season and developed his game further, despite being the leading back in the NFL last year.

• The Miami Dolphins, the Dallas Cowboys and the Atlanta Falcons all have serious questions to answer on offense. These are three teams that had high expectations for their offenses to have a prolific year and have failed to live up to that promise. Even in the pre-season they struggled to score points. This week they at least need to start looking like they might put the ball in the end zone, or you can expect the media to ramp up the pressure and for fissures between offense and defense to start forming in their locker rooms.

• The 49ers secondary was supposed to be more organised this year. They were going to finally support Patrick Willis and the rest of the front seven. But they struggled mightily against Seattle and I can't imagine Mike Singletary was best pleased. Still, as long as they don't have to play New Orleans any time soon......... ah f**k!

• Having seen Michael Vick gash the Packers for over a hundred yards, could the unthinkable happen; could Andy Reid start running the ball more? Will he see the possibilities? I doubt it.

• And talking of Andy Reid, his poor game management is legendary. I found a great article covering this on NFL.com. What was shocking for me was that it was written by Michael "did I ever tell you about my time with Bill Walsh?" Lombardi. Yes, Michael Lombardi wrote a good article. Don't say I never give credit where it is due.

Right, I shall be back tomorrow with some picks for the weekend ahead. Hopefully this week I'll go a little better than my abysmal 6-10. Hopefully.....

Have a great day everyone.

Rushing for a Great Defense

As a 49'ers fan, I'm always interested when the name Josh Morgan pops up. By all accounts, the 2nd year wide out has excelled in training and could have a good future ahead of him. Which is why I was a little annoyed that Crabtree waltzed straight in after his holdout and took the starting job from Morgan. Yes Crabtree is good, but I don't like the message it sends to the team. Well, now Morgan gets a shot again as Issac Bruce has suffered an ankle injury, which is why he missed Thursdays game against the Bears and now Morgan has been promoted to a starting job. I think this can only be a good thing for the 49'ers. Now that's not a knock on Bruce. I still think he's a good player. But the trouble is the QB's in San Fran' dont seem too keen on passing to the guy. This means Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree get all the attention, and consequently, all the coverage. Hopefully Morgans appearance will balance the receiving corps out and create opportunities for the other guys. But the fact that I'm talking about this at all makes me very surprised. When Mike Singletary was announced as head coach, it was made reasonably clear that he was looking to run the football and play great defense. When he hired Offensive Co-ordinator Jimmy Raye from the Jets (where he was a running backs coach) it was made very obvious that the 49'ers were going to run the ball and play great defense. And yet this year, it's been pass happy all the way. Now, that's worked ok, it's scored touchdowns, but it does kind of smack me a little of stupidity by not using the best offensive asset; pro bowl caliber RB Frank Gore. But what's more intriguing for me right now is the phrase that I used twice above; "... run the football and play great defense." What is is about running the football so much that intrinsically lends itself to great defense, or vice versa? Well I'll tell you what, I've got some spare time so we'll have a look and see shall we? The draft: To throw the football a lot and be a pass orientated offense you need three things: 1) An intelligent and quick thinking QB who can read coverages, make the right decisions, and throw the full range of passes. 2) A big left tackle, with quick feet and great pass protection technique. 3) A standout WR with great hands, speed, and route technique. To get those elements you're going to need to pick high in the draft (usually) or trade high picks for quality talent. This is especially true for the left tackle, as there's not many big guys with sufficiently nimble feet. That means that your defense plays second fiddle. They'll have to wait to get corners, linemen and linebackers, usually resulting in a reduction in quality. Conversely, to run the football a lot you need three different things: 1) A solid RB tandem. Usually one guy who is smaller and quicker, and a larger guy who has more power. There are some backs that can do both (e.g. Maurice Jones-Drew). 2) An offensive line built more for push than fancy footwork. 3) A QB who is good enough to punish defenses for playing consistently with 8 in the box. To get those elements you can pretty much scoop up any two RB's in the draft. Seriously, high picks will probably be better in overall quality, but the gulf in talent is no where near what it is for some other positions. The offensive line requires big guys. Quick feet and technique are still important, but not nearly as much as they are for pass protection. And the QB need not be a stunner. He'll probably be doing a lot of play faking and quick throws, but he's not going to see anywhere near the amount of diverse coverages that a Tom Brady or Peyton Manning would. You can dip lower, much lower, for these players. That leaves your high end draft picks free to go after stellar pass rushers, run stoppers, or shutdown corners. Your defense gets the better end of the talent stick. If you're trading or dipping into free agency, you can spend much more of your salary cap on top defensive guys, now that you're not splashing out high end money for two of the most expensive positions in football (QB & LT). The Clock: So it's game day, you're ready, all your new draft picks have been slotted into place. You look across the field and standing their is one of the best offensive units in the land. They can't wait to hit the field and post gaudy numbers against you. What are you gonna do about it? The simplest answer is, don't give them the ball. Run it, build a drive that chews half a quarter off the clock and then score. By running the football you keep the clock ticking. The more it ticks, the less time there is for the opposition to play offense. Less time = less plays. Less plays = less gains. This is kind of the old argument about statistics. The sheer fact that your opponents don't have a sufficient number of snaps to post 300 yards passing means that your defense will appear statistically superior against the pass compared to some other teams. And without as many snaps, teams tend to lean on their pass game for fear of falling behind. This exposes the QB to sacks and interceptions, with every incompletion boosting the defensive stats further. In addition, your defense gets more time on the sideline when you control the ball, allowing those excellent, if a little overweight, pass rushers to get some much needed rest (and oxygen). The Turnovers: We're talking both offensive and defensive here. Your high round defensive draft picks should be better at creating turnovers. They should force more three and outs, forcing the opposition to punt (essentially a turnover on downs. Of sorts). But more importantly here is how offensive turnovers affect your defense. The reality is, teams generally throw more interceptions than they have lost fumbles. Running the football simply doesn't turnover the ball as much. That means less extra possession's handed to the opposition, which your defense would otherwise have to face. But even more critically here, most fumbles are recovered near the spot of the original fumble. The field position change is usually very little (but not always, fumbles do get returned for touchdowns). When balls are intercepted however, you tend to get much bigger changes in field position and a higher incidence of touchdown returns. And it's the field position that hurts your defense the most. It instantly gives the opposition a shorter field with a better chance of scoring. Again this another stat linked situation. Your defense concedes more touchdowns/field goals in a game than it's really worth. In addition to the three above there are two other factors that I think are important, but these are mainly subjective factors and as such there are no real stats that we can look at to prove or disprove them: The Motivation: A primarily run based offense is not going to produce 5 or 6 touchdowns a game. Not unless the opponent is really bad (*cough* Browns). Therefore I think mentally as a defensive player, you have to appreciate that the offense will not bail you out if you make a mistake. In your mind, you must understand that a lot hinges on your ability to carry out your role effectively. I think this extra motivation helps push defensive players to excel. The Coach: This one is very subjective. But chances are, if you're a very run minded Head coach, you're also a bit more conservative. This is likely to spill into your defense, especially if your the co-ordinator. That means you're unlikely to take some of the big chances that you see aggressive defenses take.... ones which often get exploited for big gains. Your more likely to sit back, stifle the offense, and wait for it to make mistakes of it own, and take only calculated risks at the appropriate moment. You give up less big plays, your defense gives up less points. So there we have it, my take on why running the football and playing great defense are so often linked together. I could be wrong, I could be half right. Use your noggin and make up your own mind.