Wednesday, December 05, 2012

Andy Reid and Robert Griffin III

It's been a long time since I last posted on this blog. I just haven't had the time so much these days. But two things have truly been nagging at me so much that I just could not let them lie any longer. After months of inactivity I've basically been compelled to post, driven by two stories that are prevalent in the NFL right now; the situation with the Philadelphia Eagles and the career of Robert Griffin III.

Thursday, October 25, 2012

My suggestion for Cam Newton

Just when you thought I had fallen off the face of the Earth, I'm back. And I have a few suggestions for Cam Newton and the Panthers, seen as how they're asking. I sincerely hope someone shows this to Cam or someone at the Panthers because they quite literally look bad enough right now to need help from the blogosphere, or whatever the hell the Internet blogging community is referred to as these days. 

And because I hate the Panthers (or was it just John Fox? I can't remember).

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Thoughts on Week 5

What a bizarre week in the NFL.
 
First the Rams defy expectations and overcome the Cardinals. That was a big one for the Rams as it helps to establish the fact that they do have some decent players on their team who can produce. Just need to find a bit of consistency now.

Tuesday, October 02, 2012

Thoughts after Week 4

So I've just finished watching Tony Romo have another meltdown game, this time against the Bears, though how much of that was actually Romo's fault is up for debate. Suffice to say that his receivers didn't help him much and in particular Dez Bryant has a lot to think about in the week ahead.

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

And hilarity ensues

Or as it's otherwise known, the Green Bay Packers losing to the Seahawks.
 
There's been a lot of back and forth about this. From what I can tell of the final play of the Packers/Seahawks game, Golden Tate committed an interference penalty, three Packers defenders committed penalties on a Seahawks receiver whose name I couldn't see, and ultimately Tate and Jennings came down with simultaneous possession. So the refs got it about right.
 
Since then I've been provided with plenty of entertainment. 

Monday, September 24, 2012

Engage "rant mode"

So I have to rant about the officiating of the Sunday Night game this week. But I'm not going to be ranting about the same things that I imagine everyone else is. I'm ranting the opposite way; in favour of the replacement officials. Although this post was spurred by the Sunday Night game, it applies to the general arguments being levelled at the replacement officials this season.
 
- First off, yes, the replacement officials have made some bad calls, but....
 
- I'm sick and fucking tired of listening to people talk about the officiating as if the regular crews were flawless and never made any mistakes. People are talking about these mistakes as if they've never seen a ref miss a call or make a bad call in a football game before. What planet have people been living on if that's the case? The fact is the regular officials make just as many mistakes, if not more. Go back and watch some of last seasons games. People were forever complaining about the quality of officiating, as they have done for years. And yet all of sudden pundits seem to have suffered a collective memory loss, because everyone now seems to think that the regular refs were superb officials who never put a foot wrong.
 
- This is not helped by the poor quality of some of the commentary. Tonight for example Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth were complaining about an illegal contact penalty called against the Ravens for a foul on Wes Welker. While they were busy mocking the replacement refs and pontificating about the call like a pair of "holier than thou" twats, it seems that neither of them took the time to notice that the defender put his hands up into Wes Welkers face. Or as it's otherwise known in football; illegal contact - hands to the face.
 
Just because the ref didn't explain the last bit of the call doesn't mean that the foul didn't occur. It just served to highlight the inability of the commentary team to function without having every minute detail handed to them on a plate (all TV networks have a team of people following each individual match up in a game who then feed information to the commentators. Or do you really think it's just a coincidence or skill that colour commentators just happen to always have been looking at the vital matchup on every single play?)
 
- And frankly, I think I prefer these refs. The game tonight was a hell of a lot more entertaining, as all the games this season have been. They let the game flow for the most part, and only call some of the more blatant and/or serious infractions. And unlike the regular officials they haven't been sucked into the "this is a passing league" mantra which means they're not afraid to actually call offensive pass interference when they see it.
 
Again, these replacements are not perfect. They still miss some calls and they still make calls that are dubious. But I would say on balance they're about as imperfect as the regular officials, while being a hell of a lot cheaper.
 
Much of the madness and rhetoric surrounding the replacements has been stoked by shitty commentating and analysis, along with coaches taking liberties with the replacements that they wouldn't dare against the regulars (would Belichick touch a regular official? Not a chance).
 
It's just so annoying because like most things in football these days common sense, logic, and actual facts take a back seat to drivelling bollocks that is sensationalised to the extreme. 
 
Like ProFootballTalk.com, but everywhere.

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

The Times They Are A Changin'

Or in other words, I really don't have enough time to run this blog in the way that I used to. Fixed schedules, regular articles etc just aren't working. And so when times change, you need to adapt. On that note, I'm going to have to alter the way I approach this blog. Instead of doing extensive summaries of each weeks games as I did last year, this year I'm going to have to take a more ad hoc approach, writing articles as and when I have the time to do so, focused more on just sharing my thoughts about certain topics. For now at least that's just how it'll have to be.

Apologies.

Thursday, September 13, 2012

NFL Week Two: Thursday Night Pick

After shitting out at 8-8 for week one it's almost a relief that this week I've been pretty busy. I have enough time - with the clock winding away - to say that I'm taking the Bears over the Packers tonight, because I think the Bears are for real and the Packers might have had some long term problems exposed by the 49ers.

Monday, September 10, 2012

NFL Week One Pick: Monday Night Football

Two games for Monday night. Had a pretty average day yesterday with the picks. One of the few people to nail the 49ers over the Packers, but a lot of surprises and upsets. I'll probably do a recap with my thoughts on Wednesday. But for now though, time to pick the Monday Night games.

Sunday, September 09, 2012

NFL Week One Picks: Late Games

So now I'm going to move on the late games.

NFL Week One predictions; 1pm kick offs

So, classic, I take the Giants over Dallas, because Dalls won't run the ball.... and surprise, surprise, what do the Cowboys do? Yeah, great. 0-1 to start the season. There's only about 45 minutes till the Sunday games kick off so I'm going to have to pile through these somewhat, but even if I over run by a few minutes that shouldn't make too much of a big deal. Let's get started.

Wednesday, September 05, 2012

Week 1: Cowboys @ Giants

It's finally here. Week 1. The drought is over. I can almost sense the feeling in the air that football is returning. Granted, that might just be because it's 5am here and I just went outside wearing slippers and it's damn cold, but whatever.

Cowboys @ Giants
And we kick off the season with the Giants playing host to the Cowboys in a mid week game. It's a nice rivalry game to start off with and for the Giants I see this as being a perfect start to the defense of their crown.

See when I look at the Giants roster, I see all the great things they had from last season, minus the secondary. I have to admit, that looks suspect. But I still see a great running game, reasonably good protection, a monstrous defensive line and a wide receiver corps that is over flowing with talented players.

When I look at the Cowboys... eh not so much. I think defensively they have a solid amount of talent that will flex its muscles over the course of the season, but once again I see a group of receivers that has maybe one stand out in Miles Austin, one so-so in Dez Bryant, and then the solid Jason Witten. I see Tony Romo, who is prone to mistakes. I see an offensive line that I don't think will stand up well to the Giants pass rush.

The major bright spot for the Cowboys is the rushing attack, but let's not kid ourselves. The Cowboys don't really do rushing anymore. Whether that's influenced by Jerry Jones or not I couldn't tell you, but they seem fixated on proving that Romo is a worthy quarterback instead of playing their hot hand which is with DeMarco Murray and Felix Jones. And even if they did, I'm not sure the Cowboys line can create enough holes for those guys to run through.

We all know how difficult it is to defend a Super Bowl title. Every season is effectively a complete restart as even the best teams inevitably lose players to free agency as the Giants did, especially in the secondary. But I think enough of the core Giants defenders have remained in order to see them past the Cowboys, and I think Eli Manning retains enough weapons on offense to compliment that defense.

Giants win.

Wednesday, August 22, 2012

NFC East and South


Finally got a proper day to myself, no hassles, no messing about. Right, NFC East.

Actually, before I start, the last one of these I did was on the NFC North and since then the Packers have gone out and picked up Cedric Benson, I'm sure as part of a devious plan to ruin my predictions. Personally I think that's a really good move on their part as Benson is a good runner and a solid body in pass protection, which understandably is something the Packers are quite big on.

Now on to the NFC East. Promise.

Monday, August 13, 2012

Luck of the draw

The main reason I started this blog was to address some of what I perceived to be the major issues that I have with mainstream coverage of the NFL. One of the biggest problems I've always had is the elevation of certain people unfairly onto "Superstar" pedestals, that is to say that certain people are essentially manufactured into personalities that they are not, because it makes good TV and juicy articles on websites. The similar but in some ways opposite of this is to vilify certain individuals unwarrantedly because it sounds good and again generates mountains of comments and page views, regardless of how accurate or not the analysis is.

Friday, August 10, 2012

A Quick Rant

My next full post will be a look ahead at the NFC East, but just briefly I want to touch on something that came up after tonight's pre-season game involving the Broncos against the Bears.

Basically Peyton Manning took the field and did ok, nothing special, then got picked off. But what drives me nuts about football commentating and analysis is how the NFL Network crew, who naturally made a flurry of snide remarks about the receivers not being used to having accurate passes thrown to them during the short lived Tebow era, then proceeded to pour all the blame on the offensive line and the receivers.

Now in that respect, they're right; the Broncos have a bad O-line and their receivers are on their own unique level of terrible. But during the Tebow era it was all described as Tebow's fault and he was the sole cause of all the problems. Now that Manning has arrived however, oh now everyone has suddenly changed their tune. Despite the fact that Manning had a fairly average showing, suddenly it was all the fault of everyone else and Manning was perfect.

This kind of thing just makes my blood boil. When it's Tebow throwing to those receivers, he gets all the flak and the receivers are painted as being blameless. Enter the golden boy Manning and all of a sudden everyone has reversed course. It's total hypocrisy and the trouble is that it leaves an indelible impression on fans who turn to the TV experts for guidance.

And high school coaches wonder why parents are so ignorant to the game, or college coaches wondering why news reporters covering them are the same. There's your reason why. Shit like that.

Monday, August 06, 2012

NFC North 2012

TA DA!

Yes, well, perhaps not quite the fanfare I'd anticipated. Anyway, finally I am back to writing this blog as the football season slowly begins to lurch into action with the Hall of Fame Game tonight between the Cardinals and Dog the Bounty Hunters new favourite team, the Saints. So it's only appropriate that I pick this day to jump back on the saddle and actually produce a meaningful post.

I'm not sure whether the time away has been good or not. I was pretty burned out on football, just sick and tired of watching game after game of draftees in College. But at the same time I kind of regret spending so much time away, as I've really not followed football at all during the off season. I forgot that Raheem Morris had been fired from the Buccaneers for example. Football has lost some of it's lustre, but I'm hoping that getting back to the meat of football will bring that back.

I'm going to ease myself in today by taking a quick look at the NFC North and how I think the teams will get on. Begin!

Wednesday, August 01, 2012

Back

So it's August now and training camps are back in full swing. The Football season awaits us, finally. To be honest I haven't followed much of the off season goings on for the first time in years, mainly because I'm busy and I'm burned out with all the non-news that is generated about every last little scrap that the press generates.

But now I'm finally getting back in the swing of things and my plan over the course of training camp is to look at each division and assess where I think they're headed this season. So keep an eye out over the coming days, as I'm going to start in the NFC North, go clockwise around the states, and then do the same for the AFC.

It's good to be back and good to be excited about football again.

Monday, July 16, 2012

Update; 07/16/12

It seems bizarre but the blog has actually been attracting more views without me doing anything!

I am here though. Inevitably the blog feel to the way side during the off season, as I suspected it might. Other things consume my time, as they seem to for most amatuer football bloggers who, unlike our over paid, integrity challenged comrades in the mainstream, do not have all day to sit about thinking of ways to turn innocuous comments by football players into overblown media stories.

I have followed some of the off season buzz, but granted not a lot. It seems that most of the hype has surrounded the ludicrous deal that was given to Drew Brees, a deal the Saints can never hope to reap the benefits of. When I look at the offseason free agent market and think what the Saints could have brought in for that kind of money, I'm a little stunned.

I've also had little interest in some of the stupider articles that come out of the offseason. I've seen at least four or five articles belonging to major news sites that were nothing more than simply taking the opinion of a local beat writer and trying to pretend that is factually representative of how an entire football organisation views a certain situation.

There have also been a steady stream of misquotes and twists of what certain players have said about their teams, seasons, or team mates. It really is depressing to read some of the pure drivel that gets written.

And of course, player after stupid player has been arrested or otherwise run a foul of the law. Apparently getting paid millions of dollars a year is not enough to afford a taxi cab. Nor is getting regularly drug tested enough of a hint to some players, as if the advice of their coaches wasn't enough, that they should be staying away from drugs.

Ah well, stupid is as stupid does I guess.

Over the course of the next few weeks I expect the volume of posts on this blog to go up a little as the football season slowly lurches back out of the dark days of summer and into the bright and bountiful months of winter.

Or something like that.

Sunday, June 24, 2012

Update 06/24/12

Well surprise, surprise, I'm miles behind schedule. Unfortunately it's one of the sad issues with this blog in that it's something of a hobby and readership has understandably tailed off with the end of the football season, therefore it comes as quite a low priority when things get busy.

I'm toying with the idea of just ignoring the draft from this point on. We're in the third round now and so players from here on in don't tend to get too much playing time anyway, depending on who they are and how badly they're needed.

Instead I might do something that is more interesting to me and that's to break out the diagrams again and focus more on the coaching aspect of football, which is where my heart for football has always layed.

We'll see. Only another three months before football really begins again. Yay...

Thursday, June 14, 2012

Update 06/14/12

I'm getting there, slowly but surely. People always say that wins the race, but other than a race between two people on one of those electronic buzzer things where you have to avoid touching the twisted metal thing in the middle, I don't think I've ever known someone to win a race slowly.

Ah well. I am working on the next part of my draft round up. It'll probably be up over the weekend.

Wednesday, June 06, 2012

2012 NFL Draft: Round 3 - Picks 1-10

(64) 1. Colts select TE Dwayne Allen: I quite like Allen and stand by what I said originally. He’s comfortable both as a run blocker and a receiver. He has good hands, runs some really good, smart routes and is excellent coming straight out of the break and making the catch. Impressive and along with Coby Fleener he makes an excellent tool for supporting new quarterback Andrew Luck in his rookie year.

(65) 2. Rams select CB Trumaine Johnson: Quite why they did is anybody’s guess. He stinks. He’s so weak and afraid to get stuck in it’s embarrassing to watch. He’s fragile and his coverage is generally poor. He just sits off waiting for the quarterback to make a mistake instead of trying to proactively help his team shut receivers down.

Tuesday, June 05, 2012

Update 05/06/12

So I've had an idea! (Yes, it hurt)

Question; How do you balance the publics need for regular content with your own need to fit the blog in among your regular day etc?

Answer; Split your posts into manageable chunks.

What that means is I'm going to do my round three recap of the draft in chunks, 10-11 players at a time. I've already done the first 10, in fact they've been done for a few days, so I've just got to edit that in a little while and then that'll go up. The the next post will contain 11-21, then the final post for round three will contain 22-32.

Job done, everyone's a winner.

Thursday, May 31, 2012

Update 05/31/12

Christ, is it the end of may already? Of course I say that while looking wistfully out of the window and wondering where the time has gone, only to realise that it's only been about a month since the draft took place and that feels like years ago. There was a point to this, but I've forgotten what it was.

Anyway, I have my weekend back, such bliss, which means I should be able to get a good chunk of the work done on looking at the third round picks from the 2012 draft. Sometime next week should be the landing point.

Thursday, May 24, 2012

The Zone Blitz

(And eventually, here it is. The fabled post about the Zone blitz.)

It's been such a long time since I last did a post with diagrams. So refreshing to get back into some of the "x's and o's" of football. Just hope I can remember how many diagrams I'm allowed to put in and don't run over the limit. That's before we even get into the issues about whether the new blogger interface will permit me to put pictures in? We'll find out I guess.

So in this post I want to take a look at the zone blitz. We often here this name banded about in the footballing world, but what exactly is a zone blitz and why do teams use them?

Well first off it would be a good idea to look at the history of the zone blitz. Unfortunately, like most things in football, that could take years of research to finally sort through all the various claims made by people over the years who say they were the one that invented the zone blitz (or claimed a hefty hand in it). The only claim of any sort that seems to hold any strong, consensus merit, is that current Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau is responsible for popularizing the zone blitz among NFL teams, through his work with both the Bengals and Steelers.

That out of the way, just what is the zone blitz? To understand it we first need to look at the alternative, that being the man blitz.

The man blitz comes in two basic forms; "cover zero/0" and "cover one/1 - man free". Cover zero involves putting a defender man to man on every single one of the five eligible offensive receivers. The remaining six defenders are going after the quarterback! This is where we get the "zero" from, because there are zero deep defenders.

Cover one - Man Free, involves almost the same as cover zero, except one of the six blitzers is sacrificed in favour of a deep defender. He becomes the "one" in "cover one". The fact that the free safety is the logical choice for this role (and indeed almost always is chosen) gives us the "free", though I've heard disputes over this etymology with some saying that they were taught that "man free" meant for the outside coverage defenders to let their man run free down the sideline, but I have to say that seems like a rather bizarre interpretation if you ask me.

Regardless, below I've done a diagram of what a Cover 0 look, erm, looks like. The dotted lines indicate which receiver a defender is covering, while the solid black arrows pointed ominiously at the quarterback represent blitzing defenders;




Now the point of a man blitz is simple; it's a calculated gamble.

You're putting your coverage men in a tight spot by making each of them cover a receiver man to man, but that's compensated for by the extra pressure that you're bringing on the quarterback. You're hoping to either get a sack before he can release the ball, or to cause him to rush his throw such that he makes an error - either in judgement or with accuracy - and throws an incomplete pass, or better yet, an interception.

The key to cover zero is that if all five eligible receivers release into a pattern then that only leaves five offensive linemen to block six rushing defenders. Even if we assume perfect blocking by the offensive line that still means that someone is going to be coming through untouched for a free shot at the quarterback!

The downside of course is that there is no (zero) top cover by a deep safety. If our pass rushers don't get to the quarterback in time or he manages to make a quick and accurate throw, then there is nobody left between the receiver and the end zone. That's only going to end one way and it's not good for our defense. It also allows an alert quarterback to victimise certain corners who are matched up against his bigger, "target man" style receivers (like Larry Fitzgerald) by simply throwing up a jump ball.

That's the gamble you take; extra pressure versus the possibility of giving up a large gain.

The zone blitz is a way of trying to get the best of both worlds. You're bringing pressure on the quarterback while also playing a much safer coverage behind it, so that if the pressure fails to get home then your coverage men still have the opportunity to make a play, and failing that they are at least in a better position to try and bring down the eventual receiver before he reaches the end zone.

Zone blitzes also give the defensive coordinator a degree of flexibility. He can chose different combinations of rushers, perhaps opting for an overload blitz from one side, and he can also mix up the type of coverages he uses on the back end while still bringing the same number of rushers up front.

A basic example of this is demonstrated below;
With the Will and Sam backers rushing the quarterback that leaves the corners holding the 'curl/flat' zones to the outside, with Mike and Ted playing underneath across the middle, and the two safeties each taking a deep half of the field.

Here we're now able to bring five rushers while still keeping a relatively solid coverage scheme behind them. We're still looking to get after the quarterback with extra pressure, but at the same time we're in a little better shape if that fails. Perhaps just as important is that now if the quarterback panics under the pressure and throws a bad pass, our zone defenders will be looking right at him when he does it. They're better able to read and react, pouncing on any errant throw.

This also brings us to one of the trade offs when it comes to zone blitzing. Obviously you can see from the diagram above that the four underneath defenders are going to have a difficult time covering the width of the field between them, not helped by my budget diagram making skills, that have condensed the left side corners zone and given Mike a little bit too much room than he would actually be expected to cover in a real game.

Still, the point stands, there are some quite significant gaps between defenders. A good quarterback with time on his hand will pick a defense like this apart in short order, zinging passes through the wider gaps compared to a 5 underneath coverage that you would have if you only rushed four defenders.

Again it's a gamble, a sacrifice, a balancing act. We're trading slightly larger gaps in between the coverage defenders in favour getting an extra man into the pressure scheme to get after the quarterback. If the pressure pays off and the quarterback throws a bad pass then the wider gaps wont matter, and in some cases may actually result in a pick.

Now, "zone blitz" is a very broad term and the amount of variations of different pressures and coverages is quite vast. But even in that large soup of potential defenses there are a few stand out examples that are worth highlighting, which is precisely what we're going to do. There are two sub sets of the zone blitz that I want to highlight and they are; 1) a zone blitz with a dropping D-lineman and 2) the fire zone blitz.

Number one is an oddity that sees a defensive lineman drop out of the pass rush and instead back track into coverage. Once quite a rare sight in football, it's becoming increasingly common, especially so in 4-3 defenses that are looking for new ways to mix up their coverage schemes to keep themselves fresh and present new problems for quarterbacks.

Let's have a look at an example;
In this case the defensive end on the weak side is dropping out into zone coverage. The Will linebacker moves across to cover behind the pressure and we get a five man blitz from one side of the field. This is also a reasonable example of an overload blitz, as we have 5 rushers against 3 offensive linemen. The tight end might be kept into block, but generally he'll be out as a receiver. You're now relying on your two running backs to pick up the other two rushers, providing they are even both staying in for protection. If they are then you probably don't need me to tell you what happens when running backs try to routinely block fast moving linebackers.

As with all things football there ups and downs to this approach. The plus side is that you can surprise a quarterback and his protection scheme by doing something a little out of the blue. Having watched a whole bunch of tape where that left defensive end rushes every play, and having already seen maybe 20 plays that day where he did the same thing, it can come as quite a shock to a quarterback when he suddenly drops off into coverage. At the same time you have that strong over load blitz coming from the right.

The down side is that you've just put a six foot four, 270-280 pound man who is built for pass rushing out into space to try and cover a zone. Unless the ball happens to be thrown quite close to him, he's less likely to be able to make a play on it than a linebacker would. He's also inexperienced at playing coverage, so he may not get the correct depth or width for his assignment, leaving a big opening to be exploited.

Further more, because we're bringing an overload pressure from one side of the field that means we have to ask the Will linebacker to get across to cover. That takes time, and if the quarterback and the tight end are on the same page we may seem them execute a "hot" throw, where the tight end realises that heavy pressure is being brought from his side and thus stops running his route and instead turns immediately to look for a throw. If this happens, there is no chance that the Will linebacker will get across in time.

Again, and I'm sorry to keep repeating this, but it's a gamble. We're taking a chance with the coverage in the hope of creating a positive play with that overload pressure. It might be worth at this juncture pointing out that taking the odd gamble is actually quite healthy for a defensive coordinator (and offensive coordinators), as long as they understand the risks they are taking and take those chances in a somewhat measured manner. A calculated gamble based on the game situation and the opponent can reap huge rewards, while reckless gambling can often throw away a game that should otherwise have been perfectly winnable.

Moving on now we come to the final blitz that I want to touch on, and that's the Fire Zone blitz. The fire zone blitz is a relatively simple concept that comes in many variations and forms, but all share a commong theme; 5 pass rushers, 3 underneath zone defenders, and three deep zone defenders.

Here's what it looks like;

In the picture above you can see that we still have five rushers, but now the two cornerbacks drop off into deep zone coverages along with the free safety, each taking one deep third of the field. The Strong Safety comes down into a short zone underneath, the Mike linebacker stays in the middle and the Will linebacker goes out into the short zone to the side.

The benefit of this type of coverage is mainly that it a) it's quite unpredictable and b) it gives us good deep coverage. The unpredictability though is the main driver. Because we only need three underneath defenders we can be very flexible about who drops back and who rushes. Given that there are only three deep responsibilities and we have four defenders capable of covering those deep areas, one of them will nearly always be involved in the underneath coverage. That means we only have to strip two of the remaining front seven players to complete our coverage.

This also generally helps to explain why 3-4 teams are much more at home using the zone blitz than 4-3 teams. By replacing a slightly ungainly down lineman with a more lithe and agile linebacker it makes it a lot easier/safer to use schemes that require one of the wider men on the line of scrimmage to drop off.

There are also lots of novel ways to manipulate this scheme to best effect. Teams like the Green Bay Packers have become quite at home with dropping a defensive linemen back into the middle of their defense to cover that middle zone, allowing 3 of their linebackers to rush the quarterback (assuming the other is involved in the coverage). It can be quite a surprise for a quarterback to see a swathe of pressure coming right at him and then looking straight down the middle for a pass to the tight end, only to see a nose tackle suddenly come into your line of sight!

The disadvantages are that again you could be putting a defensive lineman, not ideally suited to the coverage role, into a coverage role. Also, with only three defenders underneath it means there are some gaping holes to be exploited. This is compounded by the fact that some of the underneath coverage men will be running at full tilt to get into position and thus are vulnerable to having passes thrown behind them where they will find it difficult to stop and do a 180 degree turn in time. Again, much relies on the added pressure and the surprise generated by the pass rush to confuse the quarterback into making a mistake.

So there we have it, the zone blitz. Not the most comprehensive article you'll ever see and maybe in the future I'll take a more in depth look at something like the fire zone, but as a primer it'll do. I hope you enjoyed it and can get some use out of it. If so then by all means pass this on to others, click one of the share buttons at the bottom, send it to a friend or just spread the word of mouth. I'd be very grateful.

As for future postings. Right now I have on my "to do list" two things, one being to go through and have a closer look at the third round draft picks, which is something I've already partially made a start on, and the other is to do an article about pass routes and how these can be adapted on the fly by receivers to avoid some of the problems with putting together offensive plays that have multiple concepts in them designed to beat multiple coverages.

At some point this off season I would also like to do a post about just what kind of things NFL teams do in training camp, specifically how they organise their time and how they break down their practices.

Until next time, enjoy the sunshine!

Monday, May 21, 2012

Yet Another Update; 05/21/12

There's good news and bad news.

The bad news I still haven't finished my post on the zone blitz and won't do so tonight (It's nearly midnight here and I have to be up again at 6).

The good news is that I have three days essentially free from the moment I get back from work tomorrow, so I'll have plenty of time for writing. At last.

This blogging thing seems to get harder each year.

Saturday, May 19, 2012

Update 05/19/12

Still not done with my Zone Blitz post. The main problem have at the minute is that I also write articles occasionally for a British defence website and just recently the British government has announced its schedule for what it calls "Planning Round 12", which is basically like a budget statement for UK defence in 2012, more or less. That's consuming a lot of my  time right now as a current event, whereas obviously football is in its "dead" time.

I will get it done though!

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Update 05/15/12

Half woring on a post right now about the Zone blitz. When that's done, I'll move to round 3 of the draft. There's a long time between now and the start of the season with nothing to do, so expect posts to be drawn out, both to give me more time to do other stuff and to provide a more steady stream of posts that drag out over the summer to fill your football gap.

Wednesday, May 09, 2012

2012 NFL Draft: Round Two

Ta da!!! Better late than never, or at least that's my excuse and I'm sticking by it. If the text looks odd it's because I have circumvented the bullshit that is Bloggers interface by simply writing most of the article in Word and then pasting it into the text window, because I'm clever like that. Although I admit just having looked at it in the preview, it looks like shit. I don't even care. I haven't slept for 30 hours. Night, enjoy the article:

(33)  1. Rams select WR Brian Quick: This has been my first look at Quick and I’m sure I’m not the only person taken by surprise by this pick. Overall Quick strikes me as being an average receiver with pretty good hands and good height. He has some serious issues running down the sidelines on deep routes with maintaining the proper distance from the edge of the field and his route running will need some work. With Alshon Jeffery still on the board, this pick was a little surprising.

(34) 2. Colts select TE Coby Fleener: This is a great pick in my view. Fleener has taken a lot of stick for his run blocking but personally I don’t understand that. He was a pretty good blocker on a team that was very good at rushing, so there’s no issue there for me. As a pass catcher is where Fleener really comes into his own. He’s a great route runner with pretty good hands and really he should be considered as an under speed receiver more than a fast tight end. Playing over the middle he’ll provide a great target for his former college team mate Andrew Luck and could ease Lucks entry into the NFL a great deal.

(35) 3. Ravens select DE Courtney Upshaw: The Ravens obviously saw something in Upshaw to take him in the second round, but I don’t see it. I stand by what I said previously about him. He is very average, seems fairly easy to block, is not really that athletic and is almost completely unable to get a sack unless he’s left unblocked. I don’t understand the interest at all.

(36) 4. Broncos select DT Derek Wolfe: I was quite down on him before and watching him again, I’m still down on him. Occasionally he’ll muscle his way close to the play, but it’s a very rare occurrence and just generally he doesn’t contribute much, and this was against talent not even representative of the NFL level.

(37) 5. Browns select OT Mitchell Schwartz: Yeah, I think I’ll stand by Schwartz as a good tackle. He played against some very difficult opponents and came through with reasonably flying colours. He seems to have a few problems at times with picking out who to block on certain plays, but looking at I think it’s probably an issue specific to that scheme and not a general problem with Schwartz. He should make a good tackle in the NFL.

(38) 6. Jaguars select DE Andre Branch: What the Jaguars have desperately needed for a while now has been a pass rush of some form and they’ll be hoping Branch provides it. He’s quick, that much is undeniable. He’s not always the strongest end on the field and that may hurt him in the long run, but he can get off the snap quickly and he can give offensive tackles big problems. He’ll be an interesting and frankly much needed addition to the Jaguars team.

(39) 7. Rams select CB Janoris Jenkins: One of the most highly rated corners in the draft, but really I’m not sure why. His coverage skills are somewhat average, he doesn’t tackle very well at all and he plays far too loose off the receiver, giving them massive cushions. The Rams need help at corner and I don’t think Jenkins is it.

(40) 8. Panthers select OT Amini Silatolu: Not a lot of Midwestern State film kicking about! From what I’ve seen though Silatolu looked a bit 50/50. In the running game he certainly had that element of being a bulldozer about him, albeit against some questionable opposition. In pass protection he looked a little ungainly and slow to me. I’m not sure I’d trust him with my franchise quarterback, especially as he has to adapt to playing guard.

(41) 9. Bills select OT Cordy Glenn: In my initial look at the offensive linemen I was very, very critical of Glenn. Having watched him again I once again find myself wondering how that could be? Like Kalil and Reiff, I see nothing really wrong with Glenn. He’s strong, pretty well balanced and with good footwork. I just really don’t understand what has happened and why I was so off the first time around with some of these O-linemen? I think Glenn would make a good left tackle for the Bills and should really help that offense in the passing game.

(42) 10. Dolphins select OT Jonathan Martin: Seems like the Dolphins saw a run on tackles and went for one themselves! Martin is pretty good having covered the backside of Andrew Luck all last year. I kind of raved about him before and now I won’t say that I’m going to down grade my opinion of him, which would suggest I don’t like him, just that perhaps I was a little too eager the first time. He does his job but he has a few technical flaws that show up every now and again. He’ll likely play as a right tackle for Miami which will take some adjusting to, but generally he’s a solid run blocker and a fairly sound pass blocker.

(43) 11. Jets select WR Stephen Hill: What is it about Georgia Tech producing these tall, thickly built receivers? Maybe more college teams should go receiver scouting in Georgia high schools?  Hill follows very much in the footsteps of Calvin Johnson and DeMaryius Thomas in that he’s a big, athletic target man with a great pair of hands. For the Jets he makes a great counter balance to the smaller and speedier Santonio Holmes.

(44) 12. Chiefs select OT Jeff Allen: Didn’t get a chance to have a look at him first time around. Having now seen him I’m quite impressed. Pretty solid, tough, nice punch and extension of the arms. Footwork is pretty good too. Flip flopped between left and right tackle so has some playing time at both, though it’ll be interesting to see where the Chiefs finally stick him. Not a bad little pick at all.

(45) 13. Bears select WR Alshon Jeffery: The Bears have been crying out for proper receivers for a couple of seasons now. Hopefully the Devin Hester experiment has ended because that was going nowhere. With Brandon Marshall brought in all they needed was a decent number two and they have it in Jeffery. He’s a great receiver, big, pretty quick, great hands and body control. The only thing he really needs to polish up is the top of his routes (the breaking point) which sometimes are a little sloppy. But a good pick none the less.

(46) 14. Eagles select ILB Mychal Kendricks: I was quote negative about Kendricks first time around and on reflection that may have been a bit too harsh because Kendricks does have some great speed. But still, he’s a small kid who gets muscled around far too easily and that’s a problem for a linebacker. He might have had use as a 3-4 outside rusher, but I can’t see what help he’s going to give the Eagles? They need stout, gap scheme linebackers and Kendricks is not that. Maybe they plan on bringing more pressure from the weak side?

(47) 15. Seahawks select ILB Bobby Wagner: Now this one I do stand by what I said. Wagner is god awful. He’s slow, unbalanced and not especially that instinctive. He barely seems to contribute and given that Lavonte David was still on the board at this point I really don’t understand why you would take Wagner. You cannot tell me, even if you like Wagner a lot, that he is better than David. Ridiculous.

(48) 16. Patriots select FS Tavon Wilson: Far be it for me to question the judgement of Bill Belichick but… what in the hell was he thinking? Wilson is a very average secondary man with generally poor coverage skills and poor tackling. About the only thing I can see that might have attracted Belichick is the fact that Wilson has played corner, slot defender and safety, as well as special teams. The problem – as I see it – is that he was no good at any of these. Interesting.

(49) 17. Chargers select DT Kendall Reyes: Hmm. I was pretty down on Kendall Reyes before, even going to the extent of threatening to get on a plane and punch Jim Harbaugh in the head if the 49ers drafted him, but at a second look he seemed much better. He does seem to have a knack for getting between the linemen and getting disruptive penetration into the backfield. Still has trouble coping with down blocks in the running game, but not a bad defensive lineman. Probably make a good DE in the Chargers 3-4 scheme.

(50) 18. Rams select RB Isaiah Pead: I’m going to partially stand by what I said before. Pead is a terrible pass blocker, despite many assertions that I’ve heard to the contrary. He just flat out cannot pass protect. His hands are also a little sketchy, as he seems to drop the majority of the passes thrown to him. But I will take back what I said about his speed. He has a great burst coupled with excellent agility that makes him a real danger when he gets going. Perhaps needs to learn to run a bit more North/South instead of sideline to sideline, but yeah, there’s a lot to like about him.

(51) 19. Packers select DT Jerel Worthy: The Packers took a chance to move up and take Worthy and given the way they set their defense that makes some sense. Worthy is a big body who gets a big push on the first step, but doesn’t really do a whole lot else. His value is as a player that eats blocks and causes some disruption in the backfield, creating opportunities for the supporting linebackers to make play. I still think this is a bit of a gamble for the Packers, but perhaps not as much as I previously thought.

(52) 20. Titans select OLB Zach Brown: I stand by what I said. Brown is pure garbage. He ran a quick 40 at the combine and every now and again as he’s dropping back into coverage someone will sling a pass right at him which he picks off, but generally speaking he is a complete waste. Slow to react, unbalanced, terrible footwork and he tackles like a 3 year old child. Awful. Just awful.

(53) 21. Bengals select DT Devon Still: Perhaps I might rescind my complaints about Still a little, but not a lot. I’ll grant you that he probably does have some utility as a role player perhaps, an extra young body to fill out the rotation and maybe groom for the future, but as a second round pick I don’t understand it. He’s not that good. Turns up the very occasional sack and spends a lot of time getting pushed around by guards. I also don’t think defensive line was especially critical for the Bengals.

(54) 22. Lions select WR Ryan Broyles: Like the Still pick for the Bengals, I’m not sure this was the greatest idea by the Lions. I understand the Best Player Available argument and to a degree I’ve been swayed to it, but really? When your team has so many other issues you went out and got another receiver? Ok. I hadn’t seen Broyles pre-draft and he looks ok. Hands are pretty good, he’s quite quick and he runs well with the ball in his hands. Route running is not a strength though. In the NFL that can cause problems with getting separation. Perhaps a little high for someone of his ability, but you never know. Maybe the Lions can do something with that speed?

(55) 23. Falcons select OC Peter Konz: That’s offensive center and not offensive coordinator, just to clarify. I originally said outside of the first round Konz would be worth a look and here we are! He’s a Wisconsin Badger offensive linemen. That tells you a lot of what you need to know. He’s physically impressive and in the running game has a talent for blowing people off the ball. He’s also athletic enough to pull on power plays and play guard if the Falcons decide to go that way with him. Pass protection needs some work still, but that’s mostly smoothing off the rough edges.

(56) 24. Steelers select OT Mike Adams: Initially I called him a top 10 pick and I think since then I’ve cooled a little on him, so I guess it’s a good thing that I wasn’t sitting in a draft room for your team! Though if I were in such a position I’d have access to a ton more film and all day to watch it so who knows? Adams is still a good pick though. He does need a bit of work with his hands and sometimes his footwork is a little clumsy, but overall he’s a big, powerful young man who has a lot of potential to progress to a higher level.

(57) 25. Broncos select QB Brock Osweiler: So with Tim Tebow gone to New York, the Broncos have selected Brock Osweiler to become the new understudy to Peyton Manning. Of course someone should probably tell the Broncos that Manning’s track record as a mentor for young quarterbacks is pretty abysmal (just ask Curtis Painter). Osweiler should be in familiar territory then because he too is abysmal. He spent the majority of his college career throwing screen passes. When asked to push the ball downfield he did so poorly and there is no real reason to expect that to change in the NFL.

(58) 26. Buccaneers select LB Lavonte David: The Buccaneers traded away their third and fourth round picks to Houston in exchange for this pick and Houston’s seventh rounder. Though they did pay a hefty price (I feel), Tampa got a great linebacker in return. I love Lavonte David. Playing in the heart of the defense he can rush the passer, stop the run, cover tight ends, cover slot receivers and do it all at speed and with relentless pursuit. I feel like David gives you a lot of options with what you can do with him and will give you everything he has on the field. The Buc’s defense got a serious upgrade.

(59) 27. Eagles select DE Vinny Curry: Originally this should have been the Saints pick, but part of their punishment for the bounty scandal left it in the hands of Green Bay, who then traded it along with a fourth round pick to the Eagles in exchange for the 51st selection (a pick with multiple owners itself). The Eagles decided to boost their pass rush by taking Vinny Curry from Marshall. First time around I was incredibly hard on Curry and since then I’ve eased off a little. Still, he struggled against the likes of Mike Adams and didn’t exactly blow up lesser opposition. His bull rush isn’t too bad and he has some moves, he just doesn’t seem able to convert all that into regular sacks. We’ll see, with the Eagles current scheme the ends always seem to do well and Jim Washburn is just about as good a D-line coach as you could hope for.

(60) 28. Ravens select OG Kelechi Osemele: First time I’ve seen Osemele and I think it’s going to be incredibly hard for anyone to project him accurately. First off, he played left tackle in college but is expected to be a guard for the Ravens, so we’re already dipping into murky waters. Secondly, Iowa State’s running game often called for Osemele to make ridiculously long reach blocks to the inside against an interior defensive linemen, which makes it difficult to assess his true potential as a run blocker. Against the pass Osemele did well. He held his own against some good rushers and looked pretty stout. Like I say, tough to predict I think.

(61) 29. 49ers select RB LaMichael James: As a 49ers fan I was understandably very interested in this pick and frankly I find this a bit of a head scratcher. The 49ers already had Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter and Anthony Dixon, and then in the off season they brought in Brandon Jacobs and Rock Cartwright. Adding another running back is very odd. But if you’re going to add a new back then at least make him a good one and LaMichael James certainly is that. One thing all of the previously mentioned backs had in common is that they’re all big, pounding backs, “bangers” as I like to call them. James offers quite a change of pace with significant speed and sharp cutting ability, making him a viable option both at running back and as a slot receiver.

(62) 30. Packers select CB Casey Hayward: I don’t know what to make of Hayward. First look I was very high on him but I think that’s slipping a little now. Tackling, or rather his seeming inability to tackle, is a big worry. The way he plays is more suited to a man coverage corner, whereas really the Packers are more of a zone coverage team. He is good against the pass, getting his head around most (but not all) of the time and finding the football. He’s had a good number of interceptions and pass break ups, but he struggles to control big bodied receivers and has been toasted deep more than a few times. The Packers have a knack lately for developing corners, so we’ll see.

(63) 31. Giants select WR Rueben Randle: I still like Randle and looking at it, this was probably about right for where you would expect him to land. The Giants may even have some starting time for Randle after Mario Manningham left for golden pastures on the west coast. Randle is not a dominant physical receiver in the same sense that Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd and Alshon Jeffery are, but he is quick, runs very good routes and has excellent hands. He can catch awkward balls right after coming out of his break and makes excellent adjustments under deep balls, which is an art in its own right.

As for the follow on, next is round three but I might interrupt that by doing a post that has been on my to do list for a long time now and that is a post describing the basics of the Zone blitz. I'm also thinking about doing a basics on the ISO running play. If you have any requests, either leave a comment below or e-mail me at keepingthechainsmoving@live.co.uk

The worst I can do is say no. We'll see. Till next time, hold on. It's only four months till the season begins again.

Update: 05/09/12

Like the bad guy in every Scooby Doo episode, my best laid plans have been spoiled again by some pesky kids. Originally my plan was to publish an article about Round two of the draft over the weekend. At this rate the players will be retired and planning their hall of fame induction speeches before I finally get my material out there.

Hopefully (he says) it'll be done in the next few hours.

Thursday, May 03, 2012

Update 05/03/12

Two things to address real quick.

First is that I'm still grinding away on my post looking at the second round of the NFL draft. Keep in mind that unlike the TV pundits I don't have all day to watch the film and write stuff up! I'm trying to get a good look at each player during the intervals in my day that are free and it takes a long while sometimes just to cover one player. It should be done and up sometime around the weekend.

That out of the way we need to move on the more important - and sad - news about Junior Seau, who has been found dead in his home. As I write this the reports are that he suffered a single gunshot wound to the chest, which allegedly was self inflicted. He was 43.

Seau played as a Linebacker for USC, wearing the much coveted #55 jersey, before being selected 5th overall in the first round of the 1990 NFL draft by the San Diego Chargers. Seau would spend 12 years with the Chargers and then three more with the Miami Dolphins before being released and announcing his retirement. This announcement proved premature as just four days late he signed a deal with the New England Patriots, whom he played three seasons for.

Finally Seau announced his intention to retire in January of 2010, and although he never officially "retired", he never played again after that. He finished his extensive and highly lauded 19 year career as a 12 time pro bowler, 10 time Associated Press All-Pro, and a 2 time AFC Champion. He amassed 1,849 tackles, 56.5 sacks and 18 interceptions. The only significant honor that eluded him was a Super Bowl ring, but few doubt that Seau was a Super Bowl caliber linebacker.

Outside of football Seau created the Junior Seau foundation in 1992, the purpose of the organisation being to help educate and empower young people through various programs and initiatives. In March of this year Seau's foundation celebrated its 20th anniversary.

Seau himself had three kids; a daughter and two sons.

In more recent years his life has been somewhat troubled, but I've decided not to dwell on that. This is a football blog and I want to focus on Seau's football achievements, and the great things he did outside of football. I'm sure the general press will more than cover every last inch of Seau's life over the coming days.

Rest In Peace Junior. My thoughts are obviously with his family and all those who knew him well throughout his life. If you believe in God, then say a prayer for them.


Saturday, April 28, 2012

2012 NFL Draft: Round One

So I was hoping to do Round one separately, but by the time I got a minute to sit down and write it the second round was just an hour away so I've decided "to hell with it" and just bundled the three rounds together. Without further fanfare;


Round One

1. Colts select QB Andrew Luck: We knew it was coming. And it came. Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck was taken first overall by the Colts. I'm still not as high on Luck as everyone else seems to be, but the Colts have made two picks that we'll see later on that really help Luck. He really does have every chance to succeed in Indianapolis thanks to Reggie Wayne at wide receiver, a reasonably solid offensive line and the two tight ends picked up in later rounds. Just don't hold your breath for a massive rookie season. I think Luck is going to take time to settle in and find the ropes.

2. Redskins select QB Robert Griffin III: And we knew this was coming as well. And it came. Baylor QB Robert Griffin III will now lead the Redskins and, they hope, turn around one of the most poorly managed and miserable franchises in modern pro football. Honestly I don't see it happening. Griffin is pretty quick but as a passer he is phenomenally over rated and I think he's going to have a rough first year against the Eagles, Cowboys and Giants, all of whom he has to face twice. He better hope the Redskins give him more weapons throughout the draft.

3. Browns select RB Trent Richardson: The Browns bizarrely traded up a spot with the Vikings to take Richardson. Word on the interwebs is that they were afraid the Buccaneers might make the trade so they beat them to it. Regardless, they've picked up a fantastic running back to lead the franchise going forward. He's going to take a heavy pounding against the likes of the Steelers, Ravens and Bengals, but if anyone can take that punishment and then deliver some back of his own, all the while gaining yards, then it's Trent Richardson.

4. Vikings select OT Matt Kalil: I'm going to go back at some point and watch Kalil again because people are raving about him as a sure fire lock at the left tackle spot for the next ten years etc, but I distinctly remember being underwhelmed by him. I found him to be very speculative against pass rushers and I think his quarterback did a lot of the work to help his draft stock. To be picked this high you need to be a technical and physical beast, "sound as a pound" as we say over here. I didn't see that from Kalil.

..... I don't know why, but something drew me to go and watch Kalil again right now, before proceeding. I watched five games and in those five games I didn't see a single sack given up by Kalil. More to the point, I didn't see anyone come close to really beating him. I don't understand how I can watch the same games twice and be absolutely at the opposite end of the scale about a player the second time?

I have a suspicion that being the buffoon I can occasionally be that I must have watched the wrong team the first time around by accident. It's, I dunno, it's the only logical explanation I can think of and even then it doesn't sound right. I don't get it. I feel like a bit of twat now to be honest.

So having watched Kalil again, yeah he was fine. Like I say, I didn't see anyone come even close to beating him. He had good technique, was sure footed, well balanced and had a great punch. If he can play in the NFL like he did in college then there's no reason why he shouldn't be quite a handy left tackle. The only real knock would be that he played against a lot of suspect teams, but from a technical stand point he was fine.

Thursday, April 26, 2012

2012 NFL Draft: Corners and Safeties

As always, the order is not necessarily reflective of how I rate individual players, just how they appeared on my list when I collected their names.

- Alfonzo Dennard, Nebraska: We'll get this one out of the way first. Dennards stock had plummeted since he was arrested the other day on charges of assaulting a police officer, allegedly occurring when officers attended the scene of an incident that may or may not have involved Dennard in a fight. Connected with his on field fight with Alshon Jeffery last season, it paints a poor picture of Dennards character that has many teams reeling away.

Personally, even if he is completely exonerated of any wrong doing and can eventually rebuild his reputation off the field, on it I think Dennard is grossly, grossly over rated.

At the Senior Bowl and then later at the combine many scouts were left less than impressed by his agility and the flexibility in his hips - a key component of a corner being able to turn and run with a receiver. To me this is just another example of how badly scouts miss the obvious things that appear on tape.

Because without fail the one thing you notice about Dennard when watching him on the field is that he stinks when it comes to trying to run with receivers. He has made a career in college, like many corners before him, of grabbing the receivers jersey and/or arms and just holding them back. Now unless your name is Darrelle Revis, you're not going to get away with that in the NFL.

On the occasions when Dennard was unable to get to grips with his opponents (I mean that in the literal sense) he was left completely out classed by them. The phrase we might use here in the UK would be "beaten all ends up", a term from Cricket that is often heard when a batsmen swings at - but completely misses - the ball, which then passes through and takes out his stumps.

That's what happens to Dennard when he is unable to get his hands on a receiver. He swings so to speak, misses, and then has to watch as the receiver blazes past him while he fumbles around trying to get himself turned for the pursuit. He struggles against even some of the slower receivers, so don't count on him against the elite men. This was shown dramatically by his game against Jeffery where he was not even in the same class.

Dennard, to me, is a complete waste of a pick. Even without the character issues I feel that he has no place on an NFL field. He's just simply not that good. With the character concerns? I think you'd have to be a fool to pick him.

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Update: 04/15/12

So we are one night removed from the NFL draft and..... I still haven't even started my post on Corners and Safeties. What that means is that I'm going to scramble over the next few hours to watch a few of the players and get down some thoughts on maybe just the top few corners and safeties who might go in the first round. Other than that, the rest will have to wait until after the draft.

What I've decided I'm going to do post draft is to go through each round assessing the picks of players that I know about, and then I'm going to do a round by round look at the guys I don't, then at some point get onto the undrafted players.

This will hopefully break up the boredom of the off season somewhat, then god only knows where I'm going from there.

Sunday, April 22, 2012

2012 NFL Draft: Linebackers

This is going to be quite the mix. Here we have linebackers, which is going to cover players who played the majority of their college snaps (at least recently) in any linebacker spot, be it inside or outside, 4-3 defense, 3-4 defense, 3-3 stack, whatever. And as has been the case with many of these other posts, I'm going to just focus in on some of the top players from this group.

It's now clear that my draft previews combined will probably cover most players in the top 2-3 rounds, and that after that I'll have probably covered the odd player here and there, but there will be some sizable holes in the coverage. After the draft has been completed my aim is to to cover at some point every player who was drafted, and then start working through some of the undrafted guys.

This should be quite a handy task given that the offseason is always a dead duck in terms of football news. My plan is to combine the ongoing analysis of rookie players with some coachy type stuff, maybe cracking out the play diagrams once again or doing some written breakdowns of... stuff. We;ll see.

For now, Linebackers. Starting with;

- Shea McCellin, Boise State: Although McCellin played some snaps with his hand in the dirt, he's really not big enough or strong enough to play defensive end for a 4-3 team. He just wont handle the run that well. That leaves outside in the 3-4 as the main home for him.

My issue with McCellin is that he's all about speed. He can chase down a play going in the opposite direction, but he's not going to stand up and hold the point of attack himself. That gives him rather limited utility, which I find odd given how everyone is raving about him being "versatile".

For my money, just because you rush the quarterback from a number of different positions that doesn't make you versatile. It just means your coach is being clever about trying to hide you from the quarterback and trying to get you good matchups. Nor does having two picks from odd plays make you a coverage linebacker.

And then we get to the pass rush itself and here we encounter the "Von Miller Dilemma". Von Miller, now of the Broncos, was pretty quick in college. He got a fair number of sacks just by speeding the long way around the outside of offensive tackle as the quarterback held the ball, or by being left unblocked. Typically he struggled when the tackle got his hands on him.

So should you credit Miller with hard work and having the speed to exploit broken protections. Or do you mark him down because in a technique battle he's often going to lose? This is the same dilemma I see with McCellin. Do I credit him for his speed as a pass rusher, for the fact that when he's not blocked he will almost guaranteed get to the QB before the guy can throw?

Or do I down grade him for being "lucky"? In a one on one match with an offensive lineman, usually a competent blocker will contain McCellin. He just doesn't have the strength to fight people off. So should I knock him down a peg or two because he might struggle against pro-tackles?

For me personally I think McCellin is a little too inflexible to warrant the high status he's getting. He's a pass rusher and not much else, played against a lot of not overly great tackles, there are some much better pass rushers in this draft, and overall he just doesn't jump out and grab your attention screaming that he's going to be a great linebacker.

While I see the merits in his speed and accept that he does chase plays all the way to the whistle, I can't shake that feeling that I think you could block this guy with a running back. I don't see him becoming an every down, high production pass rusher. I think he might end up as a 3rd down back.

Update: 04/22/12

So Blogger has taken it upon themselves to completely change the layout of the blogger interface once again. I should point out at this juncture that - as far as I can tell - they haven't actually made any improvements or significant updates to the interface, all they've done is just moved everything to new spots and changed some of the colors.

I can conclusively say that it is less intuitive now, as is the case with basically every software update in the world these days, and generally speaking it strikes me as a complete waste of time and money the likes of which Google has become accustomed to in the last three to four years. Literally nothing has improved, not a thing, while at the same time I now have to completely relearn how to use the interface. Pointless and bloody annoying to say the least.

Oh, and the auto save going off every two seconds and interupting me mid-type..... yeah, that's pretty fucking annoying. Thanks for nothing Google.

Ass clowns.

So anyway, I've nearly completed the Linebackers post which will go up in the next few hours but I just wanted to put out this update because I've heard from others who are having trouble with the new interface that it sometimes eats entire blog posts and I just wanted to check it out first before I post anything of actual importance.

Suffice to say that I will be sending Google some decidely curse riddled feedback.

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Update 04/17/12

Still working on draft Linebackers post. Some on this list are giving me problems. I'm having what I would now call the "Von Miller Dilemma". That is to say do certain linebackers succeed simply because they are left unblocked or get "lucky", or should they be acknowledged for hard work and not giving up on a play? Can strong skills in one area such as pass rushing make up for a lack of skills in stopping the run? Interesting argument to have.

With myself.

Saturday, April 14, 2012

Taking a break to Huddle up

So I'm going to take a break briefly from studying the 2012 crop of young prospective NFL linebackers and instead talk about an article from another site that typifies something that has always annoyed me about coaching.

The article in question comes from SmartFootball.com, the home of Chris Smart. Normally I love Smarts' articles and I think he covers quite an interesting range of topics over the course of a season. But every now and again I see the odd article that doesn't sit well with me, which is only to be expected. You can't please all of the people, all of the time, as the saying goes.

I want to highlight this article in question because it covers an interesting topic and an interesting discussion that is taking place among all coaches at all levels of the game. I'll post a link here to start with, and then I'll provide the link again at the end for convenience.

Basically the premise of the article is that the success of the Baylor Bears football team in 2011 - under the leadership of 2012 pro prospect quarterback Robert Griffin - was not only not a fluke, a one off season using a contrary offense, but indeed is almost the blueprint for the future of offense in football.

The element that is highlighted as being so critical is the No-Huddle component. Specifically the article states that; "It’s only a slight exaggeration to say that huddling is an archaism destined for the dustbin. I say it’s a slight exaggeration because there is a value to huddling, primarily when you have a great leader at quarterback as a huddle is an opportunity for him to show his leadership skills. But otherwise, it’s inherently inferior to going no-huddle".

Wow. That's quite the statement. I have to lay my cards on the table right away and say that I disagree with that assessment. Quite a lot actually. Hopefully I'll be able to articulate why in the course of this article.

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

2012 NFL Draft: Defensive Tackles

So this list is going to include 4-3 defensive tackles, 3-4 nose tackles and 3-4 defensive ends, which will be highlighted as appropriate. As always the order is not neccessarily reflective of how I rate the various players and again, there are no guarantees. My opinions are just that, opinions.

- Dontari Poe, Mephis: So on that note, where better to start than with a player that is generating a ton of controversy. Poe is reportedly 346lbs and at the combine he ran a 4.87 forty yard dash and looked silky smooth in the field drills. For a defensive linemen anyway.

The reason I say "reportedly 346lbs" is because I call bullshit on that. Remember Terrence Cody, who was drafted by the Ravens in 2010? That guy weighed in at 370lbs, just 22 pounds more than Poe, yet he looked like the michelin man. I think Poe's weight is wrong. Even so, it was an impressive time for the big man.

But then we get to the game tape and what everyone has been wondering; how does an athletically gifted athlete like Poe only chalk up 1 sack in the Conference USA? The answer is because he's not very good. And by not very good, I mean awful. And by awful, I don't mean that he got double teamed a lot. He did draw a few double teams, but he faced plenty more single blocks and he still sucked.

Let me put it this way. I watched Poe, against a CUSA team, get jacked up by a running back in pass protection. Yes, a running back. Poe is just a big guy who has no idea how to play his position. He has no pass rush moves, he has no block defeating moves, he's just a big kid who can run a smart looking forty.

That is not a first round pick. I've heard Poe touted in the top 25, and in some cases the top 15. I think you would have to have your brain removed and inspected for defects if you used a pick that high on him.

Now he might, might, develop with the right coaching. But that's a big "might" and certainly one that you don't want to be staking your teams future on with a first rounder. He is literally just a raw clump of muscle and bone and fat with no discernable football talent. Or in other words he's a scouts dream.

As a much later pick, like going undrafted really but from say the 5th round down, Poe has value. You bring him in and you work on him to mold him into a future star. If you can teach him how to use his hands properly and to bend his knees, not his waist, you could possibly develop Poe over time into someone that could be a difference maker on defense.

Just not in one year. I don't see it happening. He's so raw it's almost comical. He needs time, investment, and a coach who believes in the long term process. With the way the NFL works these days that could narrow him down to maybe just the Steelers and Patriots, but we'll see. Much rests on the quality of his future coaches and where they see him fitting into their scheme.

Monday, April 09, 2012

Update: 04/09/12

The defensive tackles post is near completion and is likely to be posted in the next 24-48 hours.

Saturday, March 31, 2012

2012 NFL Draft: Defensive Ends

Reviewing defensive linemen is always fun, not least because you get to see quarterbacks getting dropped repeatedly. Unfortunately it's also a nightmare to right up, for the simple fact that defensive linemen can potentially fall into one of five distinct categories; 1) 4-3 defensive ends, 2) 3-4 defensive ends, 3) 4-3 defensive tackles, 4) 3-4 Nose tackles, 5) 3-4 outside linebackers.

Which category they fall into has more to do with who drafts them and what that team decides to use them for than it does where they played in college. The same issue applies to linebackers (Casey Matthews was a 3-4 inside backer who now plays in a 4-3 scheme for the Eagles) and then again at the safety position with College strong safeties occasionally finding themselves at free safety because they're deemed not big enough to play strong safety in the NFL.

For that reason as we go over the various defenders you need to be aware that just because I put a guy in a list of defensive ends doesn't necessarily mean that's where he'll play at the next level. I'm going to include in this list only players who played in college as 4-3 defensive ends. Be aware that some of these players will likely end up as 3-4 outside backers, and some might even get moved inside to tackle positions.

With the draft fast approaching I'm going to limit myself to the first 10-15 guys on my list and then come back to the rest later, possibly post draft with the way my schedule is working right now. And as usual, the order is somewhat random and not reflective of whether I believe player A is better than player B etc.

Sunday, March 25, 2012

2012 NFL Draft: Tight Ends

The title says it all, as usual. I'm only going to cover the first sort of 10-15 guys on the list I have, then come back for the rest another day. Starting with;

- Coby Fleener, Stanford: Not the best run blocking tight end. Not bad, but he gets shaken off by determined defenders a little too easily. His speed is pretty good and this is where Fleener really finds his niche. He's less of a pass catching tight end as he is just an over sized wide receiver. There's a good chance the team that eventually takes him will just treat him as such.

At 6'6 and over 240 pounds he presents a formidable match up for any defender and though his acceleration isn't blinding, he does have good speed once he builds up a head of steam. His route running is pretty polished and he has good hands, so he should make an effective pass catcher. In man to man coverage he has proven almost impossible to cover effectively with a linebacker and sometimes even with safeties.

With the recent success of guys like Rob Gronkowski in New England, don't be surprised if someone takes Fleener inside those first 32 picks. He should succeed at the next level.


Thursday, March 22, 2012

2012 NFL Draft: Wide Receivers

What it says on the tin. As always, the order is semi-random and not necessarily representative of who I think the best receivers are.

- Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State: Ok, so this might be representative. I said the other day in my quarterbacks post that I was going to talk highly of Blackmon and such is the case here.

For me personally Blackmon is the most complete receiver entering the draft this year. He has the size, the speed, the strength, the jumping ability, the safe hands, the timing, the route running and the run after the catch ability to start in the NFL and go on to become a top receiver in time. If it were me then I'd be happier taking Blackmon than I would Andrew Luck.

I just can't see this pick going too far wrong. He's too good for that. With the right coaching Blackmon has the raw talent to go on and have a career comparable to guys like Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. Easily top of his class

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Tebow, Sapp, Porter, and a wave of media bile.

So all this is coming off the back of the news that Peyton Manning is currently finalising a deal with the Denver Broncos, reported to be in the region of $95 million for 5 years. That's $19 million per year, or as we say in my neck of the woods, "what f**king mug agreed to give him that?".

Anyway, the result of this deal is that in all likely hood, Tim Tebow will be traded. There's talk about 5th round picks, maybe more, maybe less. Whatever it is, pretty much every media outlet has panned the idea that any team would be stupid enough to do so. They all claim it's a waste of a pick and the usual bandwagon bullshit about how Tebow will never win games as a starter in the NFL, joking about him moving to tight end etc.

The NFL Networks response was to ask Warren Sapp and Joey Porter what they thought if Tebow was brought onto a team that they were playing on. Porter responded by saying that he would want to know who "was to blame" for bringing Tebow to his team and that he would take the signing as an indication that his team wanted to lose all season to get a high draft pick next year. Sapp exclaimed that he would "want out", and that team mates of Tebow would have to get used to not being frustrated by pick sixes and being down by 24 points every game.

This, this right here, is one of the multitude of reasons that I've lost any interest what so ever in the NFL Network over the years. What a pile of ignorant horse shit.

Now I don't care if you like Tebow or if you don't, here's the indisputable truth. Last year the Broncos were 1-4 to start the season with Kyle "a pure pocket passer" Orton at the helm. Tebow comes in and the Broncos win 7 of their next 8 games, including a six game winning streak, before struggling in the final three games. As a result of this turn around, the Broncos made the playoffs.

This is why I couldn't help but laugh at Porter. Playing for a pick? What a late rounder? I suppose the Broncos didn't win those games no? And then Sapp's comments about pick sixes? Last year Tebow threw 6 interceptions against 12 touchdowns (Orton threw eight TD's and seven INT's in 5 games). He also ran in another 6. There are some quarterbacks in the NFL right now who can't even achieve a positive TD to INT ratio. It's one of the many oddities that people seem to over look when bashing Tebow as a passer.

By the way, did I mention the Broncos beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in a play off game? Thanks to a Tim Tebow pass? No? Oh well, there was that too.

Look, by no means do I consider Tebow to be an elite pocket passer, but a simple study of the film and in particular paying attention to the amount of dropped passes should tell the average fan that much of the crap you hear from the press is just that, crap.

With some better pass catchers and an offense that isn't afraid to actually allow him to go out and, you know, pass the ball, then I think you'll see a much better Tim Tebow. Tebow has shown, repeatedly, that he can throw passes accurately to receivers when given the opportunity. Whether they catch them or not is entirely down to them.

We also have to be wary of the numbers game here. The average accuracy rating for a good quarterback in the NFL is 60%. In one game Tebow threw 20 passes and completed 9. If he hits just three more passes in that game, hardly a massive leap in terms of on field production, then he achieves the holy 60% mark that everyone is so fixated by.

With the limited offense that he worked with in Denver, the difference between being deemed a success or failure in the eyes of the media was literally that thin. If the Broncos receivers weren't so bloody butter fingered, the Broncos might have won more games and Kyle Orton might not even have lost his job.

All I can say in the end is good luck to Peyton Manning. In exchange for the $19 million a year salary that you'll be receiving you have inherited; possibly one of the worst pass blocking O-lines in the NFL, a group of receivers that need a lot of work, a pretty good running game... that you wont use properly because you never do, and a defense that is very strong and will likely decide the fate of the Broncos in 2012.

Tuck in.

To Tim Tebow I say this; keep your chin up, work hard in the off season to improve yourself, find a bunch of young receivers who have no problem spending all day practicing with you, and then stick it to people like Sapp, Porter, Rich Eisen, Mike Florio, and all the other wider collective of dick head "analysts" on TV who have said you'll never make it.

Thursday, March 15, 2012

2012 NFL Free Agency

So I've taken a break from looking at the wide receiver prospects in this years draft to have a look over the start of free agency. I'll cover as much as I can about the stuff that interests me, in a some what random order. Have to say though, while generally speaking I'm not a huge fan of teams splashing the cash in free agency, this years crop has some real tantalising names on it.

Starting with quarterbacks, the big name is obviously Peyton Manning. The Titans, Dolphins, Broncos and Cardinals appear to be the four destinations topping every list and the Titans are supposedly number one in many peoples books. Certainly the opportunity to get one over the Colts might appeal to Manning, but I'm guessing money will do the eventual talking.

It's an interesting choice because either one of those four teams would have talent for Peyton to work with, though not all possessing the same kind of talent. The Dolphins and the Cardinals hold the promise of top wide receivers for Manning to throw to, while the Cardinals and the Titans both have solid running backs in place too. Unless you want to argue for Reggie Bush in Miami, which has some merit.

The Titans would probably benefit the most because it would take the pressure off of Chris Johnson to carry that team and it would be a wonderful learning experience for young Jake Locker. The Broncos would probably be the least attractive. Their receiving corps still needs a ton of work and while the defense is strong, it's just not the best home for Manning right now.

Monday, March 12, 2012

2012 NFL Draft: Running Backs

So here's my run down of the running backs for the 2012 NFL draft. As always this may not be a complete list, but it will certainly cover most of the big names. Please note as well when reading this that running backs are notoriously difficult to judge due to the huge influence that offensive line play has on their careers, both past and future.

- Trent Richardson, Alabama: You knew he was going to be number one on the list. The question is whether Richardson lives up to that hype and deserves his spot? In my opinion, and despite the difficulties with judging running backs, I think he more than deserves his place at the top of any list of running backs for consideration in the 2012 draft.

In fact I'm going to go one further and say that there is a possible case for Richardson being considered as the number one overall pick. In light of the Redskins trade up to the second spot and coach Mike Shanahan's predilection for running backs, I wouldn't be surprised if he made the move to get Richardson. It's not as likely as the Griffin pick, but if it happens then it shouldn't come as too big of a surprise to you.

Simply put, Richardson embodies everything about what you might call an "old school" running back. He's a downhill runner, a hitter, a banger, a short powerhouse with excellent agility and great patience. It's not so much three yards and a cloud of dust as it is 8 yards and a pile of bodies.

Richardson has remarkable length strength which, coupled with his excellent balance, makes him very difficult to bring down, even when you have two or three men hanging off him. He does an excellent job of bending his knees, keeping his hips low and slowly, patiently picking his way through the holes in the defense. Any time he gets stopped he then uses that uncanny agility and occasionally a sweet looking sideways shimmy to get around defenders before turning the all ahead plough back on.

His determination just adds to this. I can't count the amount of times I've seen him get hit at two yards past the line of scrimmage, only to keep his legs churning relentlessly and use his strength to go get another two or three yards on top of that. Part of that comes from the low pad level as he ducks and dives through the line, hitting tacklers with his shoulder the way a good running back should.

All of this happens with the ball tucked high and tight in the perfect position for ball security. He truly is a wonder to watch as he picks apart a defense. Throw in a solid commitment to pass blocking and sufficiently good hands and you have yourself a near complete, 3 down running back.

If there was any one knock on him then it would be that his speed in the open field isn't "elite" level, but that's not really the kind of back that Richardson is. He's not so much a game breaking, home run hitter, as he is a short range, consistent back. He's the kind of player who will drive you forward 5-8 yards on first down, then come back and do it all again on second down.

Consistency is the name of the game with Richardson and consistency is certainly what you get. Consistently going forward, consistently weaving in and out of defenders, consistently keeping the chains moving. He's a pounding, morale destroying back who grinds opponents into the ground with every run and pushes his team ever closer to victory.

I really can't speak highly enough of Richardson. I can't see him getting out of the top five, let alone out of the top ten. It's very rare (re; never) that I advocate running backs as first round picks because of the influence of the O-line and because quality backs are normally available as low down as the fourth or fifth round sometimes. But I'll make the exception for Richardson because I believe he is genuinely an exceptional player. Could lead the league in yards his rookie year.

Saturday, March 10, 2012

2012 NFL Draft: Quarterbacks

Before we begin this round up, it's important to note once again that this is just my initial impressions based on what I've seen so far. I'll probably come back for a second look in depth at some of the more prominent individuals at a later date. If you're wondering why this is taking so much longer than last year, it's because my work schedule this year is so much more hectic, which is pressing the demands on time. As a result I may, with regard to the remaining groups, focus more on the high end prospects.


- Andrew Luck, Stanford: Before I even begin to talk about Luck, we need to caveat this whole speech. See, the very reason that I started this blog is because I was sick and tired of listening to some of the bile and hyperbole that gets thrown around the Internet and on TV by certain pundits, professional writers, bloggers, and analysts.

Enter Andrew Luck. Luck is by no means a bad quarterback, that much should be obvious to everybody. But by the same token, Luck is being given far too much credit. Many fans will already be familiar with this and thankfully a lot of people realise that Luck is perhaps being built up in the media a little beyond what he's actually capable of.

I'm not sure though if fans realise just to what extent that is the case. I watched one play for example against USC and compared it to the ESPN broadcast, where the commentator went on a loving monologue about how Luck was victimising this defender and intentionally doing this and that etc, when really he looked more like he was just going through his standard reads. Like normal.

This happens all the time in football. Everytime Peyton Manning steps up and calls something out to his line, he's tagged as having changed the play. How do you know that? Manning, like all quarterbacks, has to occasionally use fake audibles (fake calls) in order to keep the defense guessing. He's not always changing the play everytime he speaks, but commentators blindly credit him as doing so on every occasion.

Luck has the same problem, or rather, the same benefit. He's constantly being credited for things that a logical study of the game would suggest he's not actually doing. This goes back to an article I wrote a while back about how quarterbacks are always given credit for "dropping the ball into the receivers lap" on deep passes, when anyone with a modicum of understanding as to how these things actually work in reality knows that quarterbacks tend to just drop the ball in the approximate location of the receiver (within a few feet) and the receiver usually makes the final adjustment to secure the catch.

On that note, I have to say that I think Luck is over rated. It's hard for me to say something like that because I do think Luck is a very talented quarterback and his future in the NFL looks reasonably promising given the right situation and the right coaching.

He does have - shock, horror - some weaknesses though. The two primary ones that I've seen have been 1) that he's very much a short passing quarterback and 2) that he often makes some very poor decisions under pressure.

Addressing number one first, this was a big knock that I had on Blaine Gabbert (among many knocks) from last year. Luck has a good completion percentage largely because he routinely dumps the ball off to underneath receivers and is very disinclined to push the ball downfield. When he does attempt passes of over 10 yards, his accuracy is highly questionable (as in, very inconsistent).

That's not a bad thing in and of itself. Montana and Young made careers with the 49ers out of protecting the ball, finding the open receiver and letting receivers rack up the yards after the catch. Tom Brady has been doing it that way for the last few seasons. The trouble is that approach a) is very dependent on the quality of the receivers and, b) is a method that sometimes struggles when playing from behind.

Addressing point two, under pressure Luck has a tendency to just flick the ball out in an almost blase (I don't have one of those fancy e's with thing on it), shovel pass manner and sometimes throw bad passes up for grabs into dangerous spots. Rather than just eat the sack or throw the ball out of bounds he tries to make a play happen where there clearly isn't one, and if not punished for it, then often comes very close to being.

That combination - for me at least - throws up some serious questions that need answering. Can Luck carry a team single handed, without a sterling receiver corps? Can he put up enough yards on a team that has a poor running game? If he's drafted by a coach who wants to push the ball downfield (it's almost certainly going to be the Colts), can he get by without giving up too many takeaways? How will he cope under the relentless pressure of an NFL pass rush? When you consider that last year he got somewhat rattled by all the media attention surrounding him, how will he cope with being a first round pick and the "face of a franchise"?

Working in Lucks favour are a number of positive attributes. He does have a surprising turn of speed with his feet. His footwork when dropping back and moving in the pocket is excellent. Mentally he avoids pressure and works around the pocket very well. His conservative style means he doesn't turn the ball over much. His vision downfield is pretty good. I noticed he can throw the ball from any position in his hand, that is to say that he doesn't need the laces under his fingers like many quarterbacks. He's pretty accurate over short distances and he's known for being hard working.

All of these things present a coach with a very useful, very flexible player to work with who can probably start week one with the right offense in place. His prospects for technical development are - in my estimation - slightly above average for quarterbacks coming into the league. But the decision making under pressure and conservative style are nagging issues.

I think in order to succeed Luck will need a coach who understands his limitations and builds the offense around him. Someone like a Mike Martz is probably no use to Luck. He needs a slightly less ambitious offense that gives him good protection, plenty of options and is built to attack the opponent piece by piece, play by play, in a slower, more methodical fashion, with some nippy slot receivers.

So do I think Luck will make it big in the NFL? As always with young prospects, it's very hard to tell. He has a lot of raw tools in his favour to work with, however I just can't see him matching up to the hype that has been surrounding him for this last year. People expecting Luck to be the second coming of Peyton Manning are in for a sharp shock.

I'd place him more in the bracket with guys like Kyle Orton and Jay Cutler, in that I think with all the right set up then he could be successful, but he's not the kind of quarterback who is going to bring everyone else up to his level and he's not going to win games single handedly. His first season will tell us an awful lot about him, much of it quite surprising to many I'm sure.

Of course with the media the way it is, expect the pendulum of hype to swing wildly from "Golden Boy" to "Bust", which after just one season will absolutely be just as undeserved.