Saturday, October 31, 2009

Week 8 NFL picks.

Ok so it's Friday night (or morning here in the UK) and it's pick time. But first, a quick moan. Pro Bowl balloting has begun. In October. Half way through the season. Something has to be done about that. At least wait till the end of the regular season for gods sake...... Anyway, a tough week for picks, so let the pick-a-rama begin!!! Broncos@ Ravens -- Yeah, it's starting tough this week. Balls to the wall immediate tough pick. Both teams come off bye weeks and both teams have a lot to offer on both sides of the ball. But man do the Broncos look scary on offense. Kyle Orton may not be the best QB out there, but he has some awesome tools at his disposal. Defensively, Mike Nolan has turned this team into a top notch unit. Which makes it all the more surprising that I'm taking the Ravens. I just think Ray Lewis and co are gonna be out to make a statement in this game and if the Ravens run the ball a lot, which they should and I would highly recommend, then it forces Orton to throw a hell of a lot, and right into the waiting arms of Ed Reed. It's by no means a cert, but give me the Ravens in this one. Texans@ Bills -- Texans. That simple. Even if Andre Johnson doesn't play they still have dynamic back Steve Slaton and TE Owen Daniels. Don't be surprised if the Texans just blast the Bills off the face of the earth on Sunday. Browns@ Bears -- Are you kidding me? Bears. Bears, Bears, Bears. Jay Culter can relax and so can Matt Forte. It's simple. Even if Forte runs for minus yardage in this game and Cutler throws 5 picks, the Browns will still struggle to get two field goals. One of those deep balls has to connect and that'll be that. As for special teams, I like Josh Cribbs, but the Bears have both Knox and Hester to counter that. Once again, Bears. Seahawks@ Cowboys -- The 'hawks' are coming off a bye this Sunday and by about 5:00pm local time they'll be wishing they'd had an extension. I'm still not convinced that the 'Romo to Austin' connection is going to continue to put up the gaudy numbers all season. I am convinced that the Cowboys run game is good enough to cover and that the Seahawks are that bad. Cowboys for the win. Dolphins@ Jets -- Now we're talking tough games. Two teams who both like to run the ball. And by that I mean that they like to run the ball like Oprah likes to give away cars. Both teams are pretty physical defensively. Add to that a lot of bad blood and some pre-season handbags at dawn between Jets head coach Rex Ryan & Dolphins linebacker Channing Crowder, and we have the stage set for a great game. It may not be as high scoring as the last encounter, but it will be unmissable telly for those that can get the game. As for me, I can't watch it & to be honest I'm not sure if I can call it either. I think Mark Sanchez has an advantage over Chad Henne, but then I think the Dolphins have a big advantage in the run game. No offense to Thomas Jones and Shonne Greene who are probably set to post big numbers again this weekend, but I just think the Jets are gonna miss Kris Jenkins anchoring their line against the run on critical downs. While people are already prematurely proclaiming that the Saints defensive tactics from last week are the solution to the Wildcat problem, the fact is that Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams have no problems plying their trade from a normal I-formation, straight down the middle into the belly of the beast. I think the Dolphins tip this one and make up for their disappointment last week. 49'ers@ Colts -- Ah the good ol' 49'ers. My beloved red and gold superstars (*cough*) will be rolling out in Indianapolis this week. And sadly, they're going to get creamed by the Colts. Yes Crabtree has good hands. Yes Vernon Davis is coming into his own. Yes Frank Gore is a great back. And yes, I'm pleased to see Alex Smith getting the starting job. But the Colts are still the Colts and sadly the 49'ers O-line are still the 49'ers O-line. Which means that Gore will find it difficult to find running lanes. Which means that Dwight Freeney will be battering Alex Smith all day long. And it means Bob Sanders will be battering everything that moves. Colts win this one. Damn. Giants@ Eagles -- Or as it's otherwise known, 'The Battle of the Untrustworthy". Eli Manning is unreliable. Donovan McNabb is unreliable. Brian Westbrook might start. But then again he might not. Michael Vick might come out and produce some Wildcat thunder and lightning. But then again, he might just be a damp squib. The Eagles might run the ball a lot to compensate for recent weeks. On the other hand, they may be worried about Westbrook and go pass crazy. I kind of fancy the Eagles for this one as I think they have more potential for explosive plays. But then again, without Brian Dawkins they don't look anywhere near as tough against the run. And Ahmad Bradshaw is on fire lately. So in conclusion and in tune with this games running theme, possibly the most unreliable pick of the week goes to the Giants. Giants to win. But then again.... Rams@ Lions -- If this fixture was a dog, it would have been taken outside and put out of it's misery. I think a lot of this game hinges on Lions receiver Calvin Johnson. If he plays, the Lions torch the Rams. If he doesn't, Steven Jackson torches them. That said, Jackson has a problem finding the endzone this season. But then that said, the Lions are just about as good a cure for that problem as any other team in the NFL right now. Ah to hell with it, I pick the Lions. Their uniforms blend better. Raiders@ Chargers -- God almighty. As if the previous fixture wasn't bad enough, then I rolled over this. Well, simply put the Raiders are dire and the Chargers are possibly on the brink of another miracle resurgence. I like the way they're introducing Darren Sproles as a third down threat with his pace and catching ability. And I like Philip Rivers 100 times out of 100 over JaMarcus Bust-ell. Didn't quite work did it? Well, neither does the Raiders offense so we're all square now. I'm backing San Diego. And at least it can't get much worse than this..... Jaguars@ Titans -- ....... famous last words. Apparently the Titans owner is pushing for Jeff Fischer to play Vince Young at QB. If they can mix that up with their potent two headed running attack (yes, that means you actually have to give the ball to LenDale White at least 10 times) then they have a chance. But it's still a slim one. On the opposite side, David Garrard is another QB who hardly sets the world on fire. But he is good. And more to the point, so is his franchise running back Maurice Jones Drew. These two actually have the potential to be a very good tandem, putting defenses in a bind and making headway for the Jaguars. But potential doesn't win football games. Only effort and talent. In that regard, I think the Jags still have an advantage. Give me the Jags in this one. Vikings@ Packers -- Lock your doors and go hide in the storm shelter, because it's Favre-ageddon!!!!!!! No lie. Apparently Packers fans are using the term to describe the result of a Vikings, and Brett Favre of course, win. And I think they may just be a little closer to the Apocalypse than many would give them credit. It would appear from doing a bit of checking around that the consensus opinion is that the Packers will win. Now, I know Aaron Rodgers is really coming along nicely. I know that the Packers WR corps ranks up there as among the very best in the business. I know that the Packers finally got there run game going last week. And I know that the Vikings are missing Antoine Winfield at Cornerback. But let's look at some of the other facts that may just be a bit more pertinent to the result. 1) Brett Favre is just as good as Aaron Rodgers. In fact, he's better. 2) The Vikings receivers have been outstanding this season. What they may lack in technique against Green Bay, they make up for in speed. 3) The Packers played the Browns last week. Yeah, those rushing stats don't seem so impressive now. And that's before we get onto the small matter of Adrian Peterson for the Vikings...... 4) The Vikings have Jared Allen at DE, which means Rogers will spend most of the game sitting down. 5) (yes, 5!!) The Vikings have Percy Harvin on special teams and the Packers have who? In summary. Vikings win. Favre-ageddon is coming! Panthers@ Cardinals -- They're already cracking open the champagne in Arizona as they take another step closer to the NFC West crown. Yes, the Panthers really are that bad. It doesn't matter who starts at QB this week. The strength of the Panthers lies in it's run game (as I'm sure you've guessed if you've read any of my previous posts this past week). Unfortunately for them, the Cardinals have the number 1 ranked rush defense. I have no idea quite how it happened, but it did. On top of that they have Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston. And amazingly enough, they've even found a running game. Last week against the Giants they reminded everyone that Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt used to be the offensive coordinator for the Pittsburgh Steelers, as they rolled out a two tight end package and ran some power run plays. Granted, Chris 'Beanie' Wells and Tim Hightower still have a way to go before earning credits as as a running back tandem to be reckoned with, but it was a nice compliment to the Cardinals pass heavy attack. And it should be enough to see off a lacklustre Panthers team that is struggling to find itself offensively. Cardinals win at home in the desert. Falcons@ Saints -- Blockbuster potential? Maybe. We all know what the Saints can do with the ball. The question is, can the Falcons match them? Can Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez match the pace of Drew Brees, Pierre Thomas, Marques Colston (and Devery Henderson. And Robert Meachem. And Lance Moore.) & Jeremy Shockey? Tough one to call. One piece of good news for the Falcons (in a slightly sadistic way) is that Heath Evans is injured. His threat as a receiver may not be all that, but he is certainly one of the keys to the New Orleans rushing attack, leading it's flurry of backs into the breach. But not any more. And that means a lot of the game will rest in the hands of Drew Brees. Which is bad. Perversely. I say this because the Saints lean heavily on the play action game to create scoring opportunities. Without a legit run game that goes out of the window. And it also exposes Brees to the speedy linemen of the Falcons. On the other side of the ball, Darren Sharper is making a name for himself by making plays. And he seems especially keen to pick on young quarterbacks, of which ilk Ryan still is. But as I said earlier in the week, it does leave holes to be exploited. So will the Saints defense be able to balance the need to stop Turner versus the need to shutdown Ryan and the play action? Hmm, tricky. Don't forget that in my opinion there was a compelling case that the Dolphins gave the Saints the win last week. And so with all that said and done, for the second week in a row, I'm going to bet against the smart money and take the Falcons. No doubt if the lord doesn't strike me down for doing so, Drew Brees will.......

Friday, October 30, 2009

Anatomy of the analyst.

I've just and watched the latest 'Anatomy of a Play' on NFL.com, and to be brutally honest, I was disappointed. For 4 mins and 20 seconds I had to watch a nauseating account of Miles Austins 59-yard TD grab and how the Cowboys had apparently prepared all week for just this particular look and that when they got it, they nailed it. We were regaled with stories of great protection by the Tight End and fullback, of the many hours that the coaches had spent developing this play to beat this blitz and to get the ball to Miles Austin deep and in space. We heard repeatedly from Tony Romo blessing his coaching staff for this work of football art. It was put together in a way only NFL films knows how. But it wasn't until 3 minutes into the segment that we finally get to the crux of the matter. We then get a nice description of what the safety was doing and what he was looking at etc. And at this point you begin to wonder why the whole thing lasted any more than about 2 seconds. You literally could have come on and just said "The deep third safety on strong side blew his assignment. Touchdown." And that would have been that. And to be honest, that's really all there is to it. The Falcons were playing Cover 3, which meant that both safeties and one corner each had to drop back and account for a deep third of the field. Erik Coleman, the safety on the right hand side (from the Falcons perspective) is supposed to take a few steps back and start looking for people coming into his deep zone. The corner back on his side was assigned to blitz to force an early throw and the Linebacker on the opposite side (the 'Will') comes right across the formation to cover the short zone. But the trouble is, Coleman didn't drop. His first steps were forward, towards the Line Of Scrimmage. When he realises that the TE Jason Witten isn't releasing into a route, he stalls, turns, and then notices with no doubt wide eyed horror, that he has blown his assignment completely and that Austin is about to tear through his deep zone and get the ball. All this is independent of the Cowboys. It was just a dumb mistake by the Coleman. That's the key to the play. He should have dropped back and stayed there. The Will backer coming across the formation would have covered Jason Witten in the short zone. If Coleman had dropped back deep then Romo would have been forced to hold the ball for a bit longer and the pressure would have got to him. That's the whole point of a zone blitz. Make the QB hold the ball while the extra pressure gets to him and when it does you get a sack or a badly thrown, often dangerously interceptable (??), pass. If Coleman drops back properly, the Falcons likely get a sack or a pick. That's it. There really is no more to it than that. And this is why I kinda hate listening to TV pundits. There are some good ones. Jamie Dukes and Rod Woodson make a great combo. Jason La Canfora has proved to be a steal for the NFL network. Charles Davis is one of the more relaxed and informative analysts out there that I know of. And then we have the already unbeatable looking combo on NBC of Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth. But other than that, you have to question what some of these guys are up to. There seems to be a big culture in football punditry of "I know more than you at home, especially about X's and O's." But as this weeks anatomy of a play shows, that's not always true. Later tonight I'll give you my picks for the week. After going 10-3 last week (should have taken the damn Saints and Eagles) I'm concerned, because this week there are some seriously tough calls to be made. As the saying goes "Who dares, wins." Most of the time.

$3,000,000 worth of wisdom

I read an article today by Chris Brown, writer of the excellent blog 'Smart Football'. In the article he quotes another article (are you still with me?) that was orginally posted on CBS. I wanna draw a part of that article out for closer examination. It's a quote attributed to University of Texas Head Coach Mack Brown: ".... all players in the secondary, safeties included, must be able to be shut down receivers in man coverage. Linebackers have to be fast and able to cover running backs or receivers coming out of five-receiver sets. The linemen all must be effective pass rushers so the need for blitzing is reduced." Now according to Wikipedia (yes I know, reliability issues abound) Mack Brown is paid an annual salary of just under $3,000,000. And you kind of have to question that. The quote above was apparently given in response to a question about recruitment and what sort of players were needed to build an 'anti-spread' defense. Now, forgive me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty bloody sure that all receivers, safeties included, should be able to shut down a receiver in man coverage. Granted, most Linebackers aren't required to be that fast, but they still have to understand how to cover a back out of the backfield. And I'm almost certain that since time immemorial, all defensive linemen have been required to be effective pass rushers in order to remove the need to blitz. So the question becomes, why are these traits considered 'anti-spread' as opposed to 'common defensive traits'. And how can you justify paying $3,000,000 a year to a coach that has only just caught on. Rant for the day over. Tomorrow, my picks for week 8 of the NFL season. Just quickly glancing at the fixtures, there's some toughies to choose between there.

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Gee, I guess maybe they should have just run it then Brian?

When it comes to TV's talkings head, one guy does stand out on a consistent basis. His name is Mike Mayock. Mike played as a safety at Boston College and once got two interceptions against no lesser a name than John Elway. Drafted by the Steelers, he then moved on to play out his career with the Giants, before retiring and becoming an analyst. Currently he works for the NFL network, mainly as a draft guru. And the guy knows his stuff. Of all the people you see talking about various players and their potential, Mayock is one of the best at evaluating personnel. But this week I'm interested in his role on the NFL Network show 'Playbook'. Because surprisingly, I think he made some bad judgements. Mainly I'm talkin' here about a video posted on NFL.com, where Mayock and Brian Billick discuss the Minnesota Vikings game against the Steelers. In particular they discuss the Vikings getting to the 1 yd line while down by 10, and only coming away with a field goal. Now I agree with Mayock that the Vikings should have gone for it on 4th down. But I don't agree totally with his assessment of the 2nd and 3rd downs. The reason this is of any importance at all is because it proves that even the smartest guys in football sometimes make stupid mistakes. For example, on the 2nd down the Vikings run a pass play and Mayock is adamant that everyone is covered and that Favre has to throw the ball away. Except if you look right at the goal line, there is the RB standing as open as you could possibly dream for. Favre just doesn't see him. Then next play, Vikings run a kind of pick or rub route at the back of the endzone, trying to get a TE free. Except that again Mayock proclaims that the rub hasn't worked, that no-one is open. This despite the fact that you can clearly see that if Brett anticipates and throws the ball into the space ahead of the TE, that TE was about to come free. I don't know why this kind of thing bugs me, it just does. I think it's because it's a case of missing the obvious. The answer is there, right in front of you, and they don't see it. Like the situation with the Panthers. Delhomme is not at fault, and yet progressively every talking head and football commentator in the land seems to be turning on him. Nobody it would appear has bothered to say "you know what, Carolina has a pretty damn strong running game, why don't they just run the ball more?" That's what frustrates me. Don't make something more complex or seem more juicy than it is just for the sake of TV. Tell it how it is, or not at all. But it get's worse. Same show, same analysts. Now they're talking about the Dolphins/Saints game. Except now the over analysis and media-friendly bile is gonna run into overload. Billick basically stands in front of the camera, looks the viewer in the eye, and tries to convince them that running the football and playing great defense doesn't work. Even though he won a Superbowl that way. He then goes on to show a highlight reel of the Dolphins miscues, which all happen to be through throwing the ball. He is essentially saying in one breath "you need to throw the ball, you can't just run it" then in the next saying "now look at all these miscues when the Dolphins threw the ball". Gee, I guess maybe they should have just run it then Brian? Scarily enough, he does actually go on to make a good point, and that was regarding the Saints method of stopping the Wildcat. Bring the Cornerbacks on a blitz to force the edges and have the two safeties play deep. Best solution I've seen yet.

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

The moral of the story? Play to your strenghts people!!!

I just want to make one thing clear. After all the abuse I've thrown at the Panthers for giving the ball to QB Jake Delhomme, I'd like to point out that Delhomme is not the problem. In fact, Delhomme is a reasonably good QB. I can think of at least 10, probably way more, QB's who have started for NFL teams over the last few years that weren't a patch on him. And that's discounting rookies. The trouble is, Delhomme is not the kind of guy you give the ball to and say "Go win us the game son!" He's the kind of guy you ask to throw a few dropbacks, run some play action with and generally just keep the Defense from zeroing in on your run game. Like Kerry Collins did for the Titans last year. Like Sanchez did for the Jets this last weekend. He's their to compliment the strong running game. The issue is not with Delhomme, it's with the play calling. When you have two running backs of the calibre of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, you don't throw the ball 40+ times a game. You don't even thrwo it 30+ times a game. Let's not forget that last year Williams was third for rushing yardage, 1,515 yds, and if you add Stewarts tally, 836 yds, then they combined for over 2,000 yds. On average Williams carried the ball 5 times less per game than Adrian Peterson and yet racked up a much better average, 5.5yds per game to Peterson's 4.8. The only person with over 100 carries who comes even close to that is Derrick Ward (182 carries, 5.6 per carry). And that's before we get onto Williams's touchdown tally. He led the league last season with 18 rushing TD 's. Tack on another 10 from Jonathan Stewart, who was tied for 8th with Peterson amongst others, and you have 28 TD's generated from the running back position. Turnovers? 2 fumbles. Both by Stewart. (It's worth noting that the league high was 9 by... well, you guessed it. Adrian Peterson). These numbers are solid. What they point to is a one-two punch from the running back position which is unparalleled in the entire NFL. And that's what gets my back up. Why suddenly turn around and abandon what got you into the playoffs last year? Why waste an offensive combo that has the potential to go all the way to the promised land? Last year these two carved Arizona to pieces in the first drive of their playoff game. And then it steadily went down hill as the Panthers tried to lean on the pass, and instead turned the ball over 6 times for the QB position. Now yeah, that reflects badly on Delhomme and it's a game he'd want to forget. But you can't blame the guy if his coaches are determined to thrust the ball into his hands and make him perform miracles. So in summary, it's not Delhomme who should really be worrying about his job. It should be John Fox and Jeff Davidson. That's where the real problems lie. The moral of the story? Play to your strenghts people!!!

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

This is how you make use of your best assets. Washington take note.

10-3. Damn those Redskins!!! I genuinely thought that new offensive co-ordinator/play caller/whatever, Sherman Lewis, would actually have a bit of common sense. Think about it. You're about to take over as the play caller for an offense that was built to run the ball. Everyone's been telling you and pointing out that the previous pass heavy offense didn't work. The stats and the scorelines back that up. You know that the last guy to call the plays lost the job because of his pass heavy approach. So what are you gonna do? Pass lots? No way, you're gonna run!!! Right? RIGHT? Erm, wrong. Instead it would appear that what you're gonna do is ask Jason Campbell to throw the ball 43 times. I wouldn't ask Favre to do that much work. I wouldn't ask Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning or Philip Rivers to do that much work. And I sure as hell wouldn't ask Jason Campbell to do that much. What I would ask for is Clinton Portis to carry the ball more than 14 times. But even that's not enough. I'd also be asking my QB to throw the ball more than twice to TE Chris Cooley, arguably the best passing asset that the Redskins have. It's just a joke. Their whole offense now is one big calamitous joke. The fans at FedEx field were booing their a$$es off. And good on 'em. If it carries on like this, the Redskins will be damn lucky to win another game this season. So, with that done and my weekly picks all spent, I think it's time to give out some extra credit to: -Alex Smith (49ers): For coming off the bench and stepping into the breach with 15/22 for 206 yds and 3 TD's. He's taken a lot of stick in San Francisco but he took a pay cut just so he could stay and prove the critics wrong. I like that. That's the kind of attitude that got Steve Young a Superbowl ring. And now he's been named the starter for next week so he has a chance to shine. -Michael Crabtree (49ers): Put all his contract woes aside and played a solid start. Very impressive hands and upper body strength. Proves you don't need top speed to be a good receiver. -Vernon Davis (49ers): Bagged himself 93 yds off 7 catches, with 3 TD's to boot. Starting to establish himself this season as the main hitman in San Fran. -Clinton Portis (Redskins): For throwing his helmet at a bench. Yes it's a childish thing to do, but it shows he cares, that he has some fight left in him despite the terrible play of the Redskins. Give this man the ball!!! -Josh Cribbs (Browns): For giving it everything he has, week in, week out, despite the appalling play of his team mates. -Matt Schaub (Texans): Took a lot of criticism last year. This season, every week he bags himself a stack of yards and TD's, and is quietly becoming one of the best QB's out there. -Peyton Manning (Colts): Almost effortlessly notched up another 235 yds and 3 TD's. MVP anyone? -Wes Welker (Patriots): 10 catches, 107 yds and a TD against the Bucs. Oh how the Patriots missed this guy early on. But now Brady's favourite safety valve has returned and is racking up the numbers. -Sidney Rice (Vikings): 11 catches, 136 yds, but no TD against the Steelers. Still, the guy is looking sharp and continues to be Bretts favourite target. It's easy to see why. -DeAngelo Williams (Panthers): For not losing his cool and punching his inept offensive co-ordinator in the head. -Jonathan Stewart (Panthers): Same as above. -Shonn Greene (Jets): Came in unexpectedly against the Raiders to replace injured running back Leon Washington. And promptly ran for 144 yds and 2 TDs off of just 19 carries. Leon who? -Carson Palmer (Bengals): How can you not like 20/24, 233 yds, 5 TD's? -Cedric Benson (Bengals): Faced his old team, the Bears. And then stung them for 189 yds and a TD off 37 carries. -Chad Ochocinco (Bengals): 10 catches, 118 yds, 2 TD's. Looks like those offseason workouts that everyone was bitching about have paid dividends. -Tony Romo (Cowboys): Never mind the 311 yds, 3 TD's. I'm giving him extra credit for his scramble near the end of the half that lead to a TD pass to Patrick Crayton. How did he escape that rush? -Miles Austin (Cowboys): 6 catches, 171 yds and 2 TDs. I smell a pro bowl appearance on the horizon. -Darren Sharper (Saints): For easily being the most over rated safety in the league. His pick 6 against the Dolphins was nothing more than a lucky bounce of the ball. His pick against the Jets was the result of a rookie mistake leading to a bad throw. If it had been a more experienced QB then the fact he completely blew his assignment and went ball hutning would have been harshly punished. -Beanie Wells (Cardinals): For his bad ass running style. He's got one hell of a stiff arm!!! -Ricky Williams (Dolphins): Not only did get 3 TDs on just 9 carries, but he showed he can be an explosive back out of the "I" formation as well. Almost seems to make the Wildcat seem not worth the hassle. -Ronnie Brown (Dolphins): Same as above, though add a few carries & minus 2 TD's. -Brian Schottenheimer (Jets OC): Out of 70 plays, he called 54 runs. This kept the ball out of the rookie QBs hands and firmly with the strength of the team. The result was 447 net yards of offense, a 60% 3rd down efficiency and 75% red zone efficiency. This is how you make use of your best assets. Washington take note. So there it is, done for my first week blogging on football. But luckily next week is only, well, a week away!!! Roll on number 8......

Monday, October 26, 2009

... and some ridiculous ineptitude by the Panthers offensive play calling...

Ok, so all of Sundays games are now done and dusted, time to assess how I did in my first week of picks. Well, as I've already said I was 6-0 for the early games and most of the late games were goinf in my favour, but it didn't all go to plan.... Buffalo: 20 @ Carolina: 9 -- Remember these names; John Fox and Jeff Davidson. The first is the Panthers Head Coach, the second is their Offensive Co-ordinator. These have to be the two stupidest coaches in professional football right now (yeah, worse than Eric Mangini!!!). How can you overlook Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams in favour of Jake Delhomme? Between them the two running backs were given just 23 carries. 23. Delhomme on the other hand was given 44 (!!!) pass attempts, of which he completed 27 for 325 yds. But no TD's. But of course, this is Jake Delhomme we're talking about, so naturally he turned the ball over 3 times with INT's. It just boggles the mind. I knew that it was risky picking the Panthers. I knew that even though the Bills defense was gashed by the Jets rushing attack the week before, and that they have Williams and Stewart as their running back tandem, I knew that the Panthers might just fall in love with Delhomme again and throw it a lot. And turn it over. And sure enough, they did. Words can't begin to describe how retarded this decision is. If I was the owner of the franchise I'd be furious. And Fox and Davidson would both be jobless. Jets: 38 @ Oakland: 0 -- No real surprise here. Sanchez came back from his disaster last week with a conservative game and threw a TD to Clowney. But the most fun part is that the Jets surpassed even the Steelers in the diversity of their rushing attack, giving 8 (!!!) different guys the ball. Obviously Thomas Jones was among them, with 26 carries for 121 yds and a touchdown. But with Leon Washington leaving the game injured it fell to rookie Shonn Greene to fill in the gap. And boy did he. 19 carries, 144 yds, 2 touchdowns. That's one way to get your coaches attention!! Bears: 10 @ Bengals: 45 -- I took the Bengals because I didn't think the Bears would run the ball well and because I thought the Bengals had too much offensive punch through the air and on the ground. And holy crap was I underestimating the disparity. 6 carries, 24 yds. That was Matt Fortes production. Compare to Cedric Benson, who was playing against his old team. He got himself 37 carries... for 189 yds & a TD!! That's pretty damn impressive. And on any other day that would win you the awe of the crowd. Except that Palmer went 20/24 for 233yds and 5, count 'em, 5 TD's. Compare that to Jay Cutlers 26/37, 251 yds, 1 TD and 3 INT's. Bengals looking like the real deal in the AFC North, but it's still early days. Falcons: 21 @ Cowboys: 37 -- I went Cowboys here, but to be honest it was by no means a dead cert. I also proclaimed earlier that the Cowboys should run the ball more (which they should), but they didn't listen. Still, no matter, when Romo is throwing 21/29 for 311yds and 3 TD's. Credit again to Miles Austin who nearly went for 200 yds twice in a row, this time though settling for a mere 6 catches for 171 yds and 2 TD's. Saints: 46 @ Dolphins: 34 -- I mentioned earlier today that if anyone was gonna come back from being 24-3 down, then it would likely be the Saints. And sadly for my picks, they did. Bugger. Throwing away two interceptions for touchdowns didn't exactly help the Miami cause. In fact, if it weren't for those 13 points (the Saints missed a 2 point conversion), my pick would have come up as a gem. Bloody Drew Brees. Still he finished, 22/38, 298 yds, 1 TD and 3 INT's, which is way below par for him. Especially the INT's. Sadly though the ball was thrust into Chad Hennes hands, and predictably he threw 2 interceptions among his 36 attempts. Which annoys me. Not the interceptions. Just the principle that for a team as good on the ground as Miami, why throw 36 (37 if you include Ronnie Browns effort) times? Ricky Williams notched 3 TD's, and you have to think they would have had more if they had just stuck with that run game. Damn it! Cardinals: 24 @ Giants: 17 -- This game I had the chance to watch on telly. Man was it tight at times. Credit to Anquan Boldin, whose 3 catches for 75 yds doesn't tell you the whole story about how physical and determined this guy was. Ultimately though, Mannings 3 interceptions cost his team dearly. There are also continuing questions about his play calling actions at the line of scrimmage. In a desperate attempt to look like as good a field general as his brother, Eli spends in ordinate amounts of time trying to call plays and adjust protections. Except that often those protections breakdown. And 'cos he spends so much time doing it, the play clock gradually burns away, leaving Eli with a double headed monster; he either doesn't get the ball off in time and suffers delay of game penalites, or he has so little time left that he has to give away his cadence to the D. He never leaves enough time to run the kind of fakes that his brother does, and subsequently the D is able to time their releases to perfection, usually resulting in them teeing off on Manning. And unlike his brother, he isn't nearly as adept at spotting who's blitzing and who's faking. Them Cardinals turned out to be a good pick. So, that's the Sunday night games done and dusted, and thanks to a ridiculous comeback by the Saints and some ridiculous ineptitude by the Panthers offensive play calling, I'm now at 10-2 in my picks this week. Tomorrow sees the Eagles travel to Washington, where I'm backing the Redskins to pull an upset. Please Redskins, run the ball, run play action, and take me to 11-2 on my first weekend!!!

Sunday, October 25, 2009

...... the first 6 games are done and so far I'm 6-0 in my picks

So, Week 7 of the NFL, the first 6 games are done and so far I'm 6-0 in my picks. Not bad. But the real tests are yet to come in the next few hours. So let's break down those first few games: Packers: 31 @ Browns: 3 -- Jeez, what did you expect? Rodgers went 15/20 passing for 246yds and 3 TD's. On the opposite side Derek Anderson racked up a meager 12/29, for 99yds. 0 TD's. Probably bigger for the Packers was Ryan Grant getting 147 yds and a TD off 27 carries. That's what Green Bay needs more of to stop people locking down their pass game. Realistically I didn't think Browns would even get into this game and other than taking the lead with a FG, they didn't. 49'ers: 21 @ Texans: 24 -- I took Houston on the principle that they have an offense and the 49'ers don't. At least they didn't. Houston raced ahead and it never really looked liked San Francisco would get back in it. Then bugger me if they didn't roll out the secret weapon; Alex Smith. I backed Smith in the pre-season to get the job but I pretty much knew it was gonna be given to Shaun Hill based on his record last season. Now Smith was given another chance, and he took it with both hands. 15/22 206 yds, 3 TD's. Good production from Vernon Davis, Josh Morgan and at last we get to see Crabtree take to the field. And he did ok for his first game. Promising signs. As a 49'ers fan I'm pleased with what I saw, but disappointed with the loss. As a budding pundit, I'm glad I called it right. Chargers: 37 @ Chiefs: 7 -- Yeah, there's a reason I took the Chargers in this. 'Cos even a busted and under producing Tomlinson is better than a healthy Larry Johnson. Philip Rivers topped Matt Cassel as well. Blowout. The Chiefs woes continue. At least they have one win on the board this season, 'Cos they weren't leaving this game with one... Colts: 42 @ Rams: 6 -- Hahahahahahahahaha!!! Oh dear. I'm tellin' ya, losing is one thing. But to go down 42-6 when your RB (Steven Jackson) puts up 134yds on 23 carries, that's gotta hurt. But the Colts have the only weapon that ever matters; Peyton Manning. "The Sheriff" went 23/34, 235yds and 3 TD's. Tack on two more in the run game and a pick 6, and you have yourself a rout. Can anyone stop the Colts? Yes. I'm not quite sure who yet, or even how.... Patriots: 35 @ Buccaneers: 7 -- We finally got a look at the 'Bucs' new QB Josh Freeman. Shame that by that point it was all done and the Patriots had thoroughly stamped their authority over the game. I can't imagine Bill Belichick will be happy with all the penalties though (10-66yds). Still, Brady lit up the board throwing 23/32 for 308yds and 3 TD, although he wont be happy throwing 2 INT's. Someone who will be happy is Wes Welker, who had 10 catches for 107yds and a TD. Vikings: 17 @ Steelers: 27 -- Wow. Even though I picked the Steelers I wasn't 100% by any means. For the most part the game stayed tight, until Keyaron Fox picked off Brett Favre and took it back for 6. Yeah, I know. Who the f%$k is Keyaron Fox? Well the 27 year old out of Georgia Tech may have just become the most famous guy in Pittsburgh, at least this weekend. But the biggest surprise is looking at the Vikings stats. Adrian Peterson; 18 carries, for 69 yds? 1 TD? And what about Favre? 34/51 (yeah 51!) for 334 yds and ..... 0 TD's? How? How do you throw the ball 51 times for over 334 yds (though the two kinda go together) and not score at least once? What's more bizarre is looking at the Steelers rushing stats. Normally you might expect a team to have 6 different pass receivers in a game. But 6 different rushers? I guess as Jesse Ventura used to say "If it works, do it...." So 6 0f 6. Well it's now 9:00pm GMT, most of the afternoon games are into the 2nd quarter now so I might as well have a quick look at my picks and see what's happening: Great, Buffalo are beating Carolina. Nice to see the Panthers have ignored my advice and decided to let Delhomme pass just as much as they rush (Give the damn ball to Williams & Stewart!!!!). Oh surprise, he's already thrown one pick....... Jets are pummeling Raiders, good......... Bengals have already put three TD's on the board through Carson Palmer, with no response.............. Falcons are leading the Cowboys 7-3. Damn it Dallas, RUN THE BALL!!! .............. and the one I'm most surprised about. Saints 3, Dolphins 17. Yeah baby, that picks looking good at the minute! Brees is 4/10 with a pick thrown in for good measure. Make that 4/11. Ricky Williams looking good with 4 carries, 70 yds and 2 TD's already. Oh and uh, make that Drew Brees, 4/12.... with 2 Picks!!! That leaves the Dolphins now 3 & 1 on the Saints 10. My pick is looking pretty damn inspired right now. But that said, if the 49'ers game earlier proved anything, it's that the games not over till the final whistle blows. And with the Saints offense, that can be a long time!! But then again, the Dolphins just scored again. 24-3.

Friday, October 23, 2009

Week 7 picks

Right, it's Friday night, which means prediction time. My first set of predictions to actually be heard by the world (or maybe even just one random passer by). No time to waste, let's get down to it: Green Bay @ Cleveland -- I hear D'Qwell Jackson has been placed on injured reserve. That's pretty much it then for Cleveland. Short of some kind of miracle involving Josh Cribbs in the return game and Jamal Lewis on the ground, it's gonna be Green Bay all the way. Despite questions over the Packers run game, when you look at their offense it really does have the makings of something special. Their receivers, in terms of technique, catching and Yards After the Catch (Y.A.C) are among the best in the league. The only trouble they might have is separating the two Rogers; Their QB Aaron Rogers from the Browns Nose Tackle Shaun. I'm backing the Packers. San Francisco @ Houston -- My beloved 49'ers travel to Houston this week. And get mauled. The final unveiling of Michael Crabtree will do little to ease the pain. The 9'ers were trounced by Atlanta before spending last week on a bye. This week they come back and face a team on the up. Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels, Steve Slaton. Four names which will scare the crap out of most D's. Frank Gore. The only name that might really trouble Houston. This one might even turn into a rout. Until San Francisco can learn how to generate some offense, they will always struggle. Note: Michael Crabtree does not constitute generating offense. I'm backing Houston. Damn. San Diego @ Kansas City -- Last year this was a no brainer. This year.... who knows? The vultures are already circling over Norv Turner and The Chargers. Everyone is waiting for Merriman or Tomlinson (who I just found out is ill) to make a mistake so they can swoop in and tear them to shreds. Conversely, everyone in Kansas is getting ready for a big run that will lead Kansas to a Wildcard spot. I think both groups will disappoint and let's be clear on this. Last week the Chiefs beat the Redskins. The REDSKINS. And even then it was a battle of the field goals. Everyone seems to be surprised that Kansas hasn't exploded in some kind of offensive orgy since Todd Haley and Matt Cassel showed up. But truth be told, Haley doesn't have Warner, Fitzgerald and Boldin this season. And Cassel doesn't have Moss or Welker. On top of that, the Chiefs don't have Tony Gonzalez this season either. On the other side, the Chargers do still have Phillip Rivers, Darren Sproles, Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates (& L.T. if he's recovered). They also still have Merriman on D. Ignore him at your peril Kansas, I have a feeling he's looking to shut a few mouths with a big game. I take San Diego for this one. Indianapolis @ St. Louis -- Jesus, this could end up like World War 1; a massacre. The undefeated Colts coming fresh off a bye week against the winless, hopeless, Rams. Manning is simply on fire. He's making Garcon and Collie look like Jerry Rice and Michael Irvin. Steven Jackson of the Rams is ranked 4th among all NFL rushers this season..... and still hasn't found the endzone. Oh dear. Colts, all the way. New England @ Tampa (@ London) -- It's that time again as the International series rolls into Wembley stadium. Last year I was there to watch the Saints and Chargers shoot it out. This year I wont be taking the 50 odd mile trip south west, to watch New England blow the Tampa Bay Buccaneers back to Davey Jones's locker. An believe me, they will. I admire Tampa for trying to build a young(ish) team. Josh Johnson has potential with his mobility and their receiving corp continue to pull amazing catches out of the bag each week. But Brady & Co. have a point to prove still, and they'll doubtless take this opportunity to make it. The big question lingering over this game is why is it even happening. Anyone that believes for a second that this game is about anything other than money is deluded. And while I appreciated the chance to see my first NFL game live in the flesh, I also think it is a waste of time. The teams hate it, and the NFL would sell more shirts if it simply made more deals with the free-to-air channels here in the UK. Anyway, I say New England makes the fouding fathers trip in reverse successfully. Minnesota @ Pittsburgh -- Brett Favre has a photo in his holiday album from when he visited Egypt. If you look carefully in the background, you can just about see the pyramids of Giza being built. But despite his mighty age, the man can still throw. And throw hard. Coupled with a nice group of receivers, a stellar running game, and Jared Allen making hay in opposition backfields, this one has 'Vikings win' written all over it. Except the Steelers are gonna come out on top. Yeah I know, I'm taking the Steelers. My keyboard nearly exploded when it realised what I was typing. How can I possibly take the Steelers? Easy. They play better D and their Yellow and Black attack is on fire. Ben surname-un-spellable is looking good, Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes are getting the job done downfield, and their two headed rushing attack is slicing and dicing people left, right and centre. Add home advantage and it all looks good. Steelers to win. Buffalo @ Carolina -- In their final drive last week, Carolina threw a quick pass to receiver Steve Smith. Other than that, it was all runs as DeAngelo Williams and Johnathan Stewart gashed Tampa Bay, finishing with a touchdown. And that's just how the Panthers roll. Or should roll. Except for someone unknown reason they seem determined to throw the ball whenever the slightest chance rears it's head. And surprise, surprise, Jack Delhomme throws a pick. Or two. Or three. If it wasn't for his five turnovers in last years post season game with Arizona, the Panthers had a good shot at going to, if not winning the Superbowl. It's also worth noting that when Jonathan Stewart gets 14 or more carries, the Panthers are 9-0. This is important because it highlights the benefits of having two backs with contrasting styles, who compliment each other. But, they must be used as a tandem. All this is of course directed at the Tennessee Titans, who seem oblivious to the fact that they have LenDale White on their roster. If the Panthers play to their strengths then they will cream the Bills, who got blasted on the ground last week by the Jets. I think they will. At least I hope they do, because I'm picking them. Panthers for the win. New York (Jets) @ Oakland -- Honestly, I don't want to take either team. Rex Ryan has brought attitude to the Jets D, but not sacks. They get pressure, which helps. But it doesn't stuff drives and force three and outs the way sacks do. Luckily, help is at hand for the Jets. Because JaMarcus Russell has a way of stuffing drives all on his own. Don't be fooled by his performance last week. Russell is not going to be lighting up the scoreboard anytime soon. And to be honest, nor is their run game. Now I know Mark Sanchez is hardly rocking and rolling himself. But he does have better support in Thomas Jones and Leon Washington. As long as Rex and his coaches don't get too excited at the prospect of throwing the ball to their new toy Braylon Edwards, all should be right with the world. And the Jets win. I'm taking 'em. Chicago @ Cincinnati -- Please, please, please, would someone alert NFL commentators and pundits that Matt Forte has not suddenly been drained of all his prowess, like Samson having his hair removed. Forte is fine. His O-line is a different matter. If you watch Chicagos run game carefully, you'll notice that often Forte ends up flat on his back behind the Line Of Scrimmage. This tells us that he's not getting adequate help up front. So, much of the Bears offense now relies on Jay Cutler, Devin Hester and Greg Olsen. I can think of a worse trio in which to vest my hopes of victory. Sadly though, for Bears fans at least, the Bengals have this one wrapped up. Cedrice Benson has had something of a revelation this year. Expect that continue against his old team, nicely supplemented by Palmer and the Bengals pass game. Bengals to win. Probably in the last 10 seconds. Atlanta @ Dallas -- Last week was a breakout game for Cowboys receiver Miles Austin. If Tony Romo can find him and veteran receiver Roy Williams downfield then that opens up opportunities underneath and in the red zone for TE Jason Witten. But more importantly, it'll help keep the safeties off the two headed backfield monster that's just waiting to be unleashed; Marion Barber and Tashard Choice. The two backs are averaging over 5 yards per carry each and have the potential to join the elite of the NFL's one-two punch combos. All they need is the carries. And across the field from them will be a running back tandem that is already establishing itself; The Falcons Michael Turner & Jerious Norwood. This pair of running back beasts has set a tone for the Falcons offense, and the play-action game that works off them has benefitted receiver Roddy White and TE Anthony Gonzalez. With Matt Ryan at the helm the Falcons offense is explosive. The trouble is their D is a little, how do you say, flimsy. In other words, I can see The Cowboys running right over them and picking up the win. This is probably the pick I'm least sure about, but I'm going to back Dallas for this one. New Orleans @ Miami -- God help me for this, but Im gonna back Miami. Yeah, Miami. I can already see the image now of Drew Brees hurling balls all over the field and burying my pick into the ground. But something about the Dolphins tells me that they're gonna steal a win by the smallest of margins. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are something else. Even when Miami doesn't run the Wildcat, those two still burn people for big chunks. And this ball control will force the Saints to do the thing they do pretty darn good, which is throw the football. But that's not how they score. They score on play action. You get a receiver evenly slightly open and sure enough, Brees will find the guy. But if Miami has been studying the film the way I have, hopefully they'll see past it. The Dolphins are the kings so far this season for stopping the run. Hopefully they will treat Pierre Thomas with a bit of respect, but not so much as to get caught with their pants down. I know they can do it. I hope they do it. Because I'm picking them to do it. Arizona @ New York (Giants) -- Toughie. Ahmad Bradshaw is one hell of a running back. Brandon Jacobs has been... inconsistent. Overall the Giants have looked good. But this week, probably against a little twinge of better judgement, I'm backing the Card's. Why? Basically because I think Warner and co. are gonna have a field day with the Giants secondary. And because the Cardinals secondary is gonna have a field day with Eli Manning. Arizona has gradually creeped back into this season after a bad start and I think they may just creep back in a little further by taking a bite out the big apple. So I'm going on a limb to take Arizona. Philadelphia @ Washington -- Hmm, not too sure. There was a time early in this season, for example up to last Sunday morning, when this would have been a no brainer. Eagles all the way. But now, I'm not so sure. The Eagles almost out right refusal to run the ball last week cost them dear. Will they be that stubborn this weak against the 'skins? Who knows. On the other hand, you have a team in Washingotn who are in turmoil. Relieving Jim Zorn of play calling duties will probably not inspire their head coach, who already has that look in his eyes of a man who has been thoroughly beaten down. But, there is hope. The Redskins are built for two things; power runs and play action. That is the real strength of their set up. And maybe a change at the play calling position will lead the Redskins away from the West Coast attack promoted by Zorn and onto more fruitful pastures. With Eagles Linebacker Omar Gaither injured it opens up the chance for big gains by Clinton Portis. Conversely, Eagles QB Donovan McNabb will get little respite this week with Albert Haynesworth lining up at NT for the 'Skins. And with their 3rd ranked pass D, I think maybe the Redskins will have the edge. I'm picking the Redskins to win this one. Christ, did I just say that. So, there we go. Theres some in their that I'm far from 100% sure about, but that's football. Let's wait and see.

Monday, October 19, 2009

Touchdown!!!!

DAY ??: I've lost count. It's been about a week. No real exercise has been conducted. I've conceded that I'm pretty much just too lazy. On a positive note, I have made a right step in another direction. I'm a huge fan of American Football and have been for something approaching 15 years. Recently I've just managed to get a role as a coaching assistant for a University team here in the UK. Which is great. But I've also spotted that there is a gap in the market when it comes to football. And that is for someone who loves the game, to make intelligent comments on it. And by intelligent comments I mean not crowning a Superbowl champion in October (not even crowning the divisional champions!). I mean not writing off Tom Brady and The Patriots as a bust just because they didn't put 40 points on the board in every game. And I mean not calling for Jeff Fischers head in Tennessee just because they're 0-6. The fact is, Tennessee have been rocked by some serious injuries to their pro bowl secondary. Now granted Chris Johnson is struggling because he is asked to carry too much of the load (especially up the middle which is the territory of LenDale White). But as for Kerry Collins, nothing is wrong with him. The fact is he's never been that exceptional at Tennessee and wasn't supposed to be. They're supposed to run the ball and play great D, leaving Collins to fill in the gaps. To ask him to magically transform into Bret Favre is like asking the Raiders management to trade JaMarcus Russell. It's simply not gonna happen. Should they now play Vince Young? Yes. Next year the guy will be sinking his teeth into a large sum of money and they need to know now whether he has the capability to carry this team through difficult times. As for their opponents last Sunday, The New Engalnd Patriots, it's rock and roll time. Kind of. Yes they put 59 on the board. But it was against a depleted and defeated looking Titans. Hopes that they will blaze through the NFL undefeated from here on in may be a touch premature. But a key component of their offence is back and established; Wes Welker. Because while Randy Moss streaks down the field and makes the eyes of Madden video game makers light up, it's still Welker who wins games for the Patriots. Yes, Wes Welker. Without him, the reality is that Brady and Moss are just another one-two passing combo, like many in the league. And another combination, the tried and tested blitz + double coverage, can take them away just as easily as the rest. The key is that instead of a running game to supplement, the Patriots have Welker. Safe hands, toughness on the underneath routes and an eye for gaps in the zone make Welker the cog that keeps the machine running. Now he's back, it's fun times all round in New England. For now at least. Am I crowning them as Superbowl Champions? Nope. Divisional champions? Nope. What about the Saints in the NFC South? Nope. "But they beat the GIANTS!!! For Gods Sake Chris, what else do they have to do prove they're good enough to win a Superbowl ?!!!" Uhm, win a Superbowl. Yes they beat the Giants. The same Giants who hadn't faced a team with a winning record all season. And the same Giants who practically handed them the game. Now, don't get all upset on me. Yes I do think the Saints are a good team. Brees is an excellent QB. But I'm not ready to jump on the bandwagon just yet. Let's go back to Sunday and the Giants game. Saints jump to a quick 14-0 lead. No arguments there. Nice to see Shockey get a TD against the Giants. But then with 11 seconds left in the 1st quarter, Manning chucks the rock downfield to the endzone looking for Steve Smith and he ...... drops it! Well, to be more precise he just cant quite reach it properly. Either way, that could have been a nice score for the Giants and might have changed the game a little. Next Saints possession they come right back and score a touchdown. Their was an opportunity for the defender to make a play in the endzone and if he does that's a pick and the ball goes back the other way. Still credit to Brees and Meecham (I don't know how to spell his name. Unlucky.) for hooking up. So Saints up 20-3 (failed conversion) when the Giants comeback and get a touchdown (credit now to Ahmad Bradshaw, great RB). 20-10 Saints. But now it gets interesting. Brees throws from around midfield down to the 10 incomplete. But wait! That little yellow saviour comes out for the Saints as what appears on replay to just be incidental contact suddenly becomes pass interference and the Saints are on the 10. From that they nail a TD and now the game is 27-10. That's pretty lucky. Giants come back and hit a TD themselves so now it's 27-17. Saints get the ball, drive down field... but get stopped and turnover on downs. And now the Giants give it away again. Out of timeouts they fail to run a clock stopping play and have to rush to get a play off. Manning sacked, ball loose, Saints recover and convert the possession into a TD. 34-17 Saints at halftime. Now again, to reiterate, it's not the Saints fault that New York dropped some serious clangers. But it is worth looking at. Without those mistakes the game changes. The score is tighter, the pressure mounts a little. Credit where it's due to the Saints for taking full advantage of the opportunities. But just don't expect the same sort of favours in the post season. And certainly not in the Superbowl.