The Eagles and Panthers in the red zone

So I forgot to tally up my picks for Week 4. Largely on account of the fact that I shit out again, but there you go. For the record I was 11-5 in week 4, which looking at it now doesn't actually look that bad. That puts me up to 37-27 for the season, which looks worse than I just thought it would. Hmm, my perceptions are playing games with me today.

Which is almost coincidental because today I want to talk perceptions. Or more specifically, the perceptions surrounding certain offenses.

See, we all know what Cam Newton has achieved on the field so far this season, regularly lobbing the ball down field in a manner that appears to my cynical eyes to be a hail mary type pass. We've also seen the Eagles tear great chunks out of people with both the run and the pass. But what intrigues me about both of those teams is their lack of success at converting all that accumulated yardage into touchdowns. Which brings us to the wider question; why do some teams suck in the red zone?

The reasons are many. A lot of them boil down to the same issue though, time and time again; space. Or rather, a lack of space. Providing for the fact that the end zone itself is ten yards deep and the red zone is measured from the 20-yard line in, that gives an offense 30 yards to work with, vertically speaking. Perhaps a better way of putting it is that the defense only has 30 yards to defend vertically and that's really the crux of the problem.

It's not that offenses become inherently less capable the closer they get to the hallowed ground at the end of the field, it's the fact that defenses have less things to worry about all of a sudden. And as the space available gets more and more compressed, the less the defense has to worry about. The types of routes they're likely to face from wide receivers in the passing game gradually shrinks from a tree of about 10-12, down to maybe 8-9 around the 20 yard line, and then down to perhaps 5-6 from the 5 yard line, and then slowly down to 3-4 from there on in.

There are two mitigating factors, but we'll get to those later.

For now we need to concentrate on the wide outs and the first routes to go are the deep routes. The 40 yard fade route off a 5-step drop by the quarterback will - from the 20 yard line - mean that the receiver doesn't catch the ball until he's in the stands, in the tunnel, or has run into a wall. There is simply not enough room to execute that play without some sort of significant and beautifully timed delay by the receiver. Get it right and you might just make the catch in the end zone. Get it wrong and you wont make it far enough down field for the catch.

The deep post route is also off the menu. You can run a post of sorts, but in the slightly more compressed space it won't be caught until the receiver is in the end zone and he'll probably have to bend the route horizontally across the end zone, leading the quarterback dangerously close to the safety on the opposite side of the field. By extension this also nullifies the post-corner route somewhat.

The 20 yard comeback is also off the menu. In this route the receiver runs like the wind for 20 yards, then slams on the brakes and comes back to the sideline. Hence 20 yard comeback. Except this route is predicated on selling the 'go' route to the corner, the notion being that a full speed receiver running down field has the potential to go deep and must be covered full speed. Except now the corner knows that's not going to happen. He knows that you only have 30 yards to work with, so you're not going to be speeding anywhere. That sets him up perfectly to get under the comeback and jump it.

Most other routes are good for the next 15 or so yards until we come to the 5-7 yard line region. Here we start to lose some of the medium-deep routes, mainly those that kind of bridge the gap. The 15 yard deep in - often referred to as the 'Dig' - is basically lost, as by the time the receiver makes the break they'll be running out of the end zone. The deep out at the same depth is also gone. The fade route off a 3-step drop is largely gone (though not the one step fade). It becomes difficult but not impossible to run a form of the skinny post route. And finally the pure 10-yard hook is lost, as again the threat of a deeper route is lost, although a 10-yard curl is manageable.

It's around this time that the structure of the defense also begins to change. As the vertical depth of the field compresses, it becomes less and less useful for the defense to run a standard cover 2 shell, with both safeties back deep. They simply don't have the threats they otherwise would. This can allow corners (if cover 2 is still played) to take slightly wider alignments on their receivers, knowing that any inside break will be funnelled right into their safeties, who are now playing much closer to the line of scrimmage.

As the depth gets reduced right down, you also begin to see more man coverage, with a single high safety to cover the middle of the end zone, freeing up the strong safety to come down and play the run and/or blitz. Some teams will dispense with the high safety all together, preferring to bring both down close to the line, where they can blitz, play close run support and still get back into a coverage position in the middle of the end zone if needed.

The much more compacted nature of the defense now begins to favour variety and aggression on the part of the defensive coordinator. It's not like he's going to get burnt deep over the middle in this situation (off play action for example) and because of the short distances involved for dropping coverage players, he can be a lot more creative in his blitz schemes and still be confident that everyone will get into place on time.

Probably the most significant advantage conferred on the defense at this point - and why the offenses in Philadelphia and Carolina are struggling in particular - is that speed no longer kills. Someone like a DeSean Jackson or a Steve Smith (the Carolina version) derive much of their threat to opposition defenses due to their speed in the open field. Once you get DeSean Jackson humming along there's not a lot of people that can catch him.

But down in the red zone the space simply doesn't permit such free running. By the time Jackson has hit full stride he'll either be back in the locker room or his quarterback will be lying on the ground as a result of the heavy pressure. It's at times like this that tall, strong, wide bodied players come to the fore. Guys like your Andre Johnson's, your Calvin Johnson's, your Brandon Marshall's. Guys like Plaxico Burress for the Jets and Dez Bryant for the Cowboys. And tight ends.

Tight ends suddenly become big targets. They're strong enough to shed off most coverage defenders, and the linebackers that they can't out strength they can usually out run. They can make tough catches in tight spots and still hold onto the ball all the way to the ground. And in the face of additional pressure from the defense, the fact that they often run routes right down the eye line of the quarterback (in the middle of the field) makes them easy targets to find in quick decision situations.

It's precisely these kind of players that both the Eagles and Panthers lack. They both have tight ends, good ones at that, but down in the red zone that's about all they have.

Now I've painted a pretty bleak picture from the offenses stand point, but it's not all doom and gloom. As we've seen, a big bodied receiver can be very difficult to stop. Just look at the success Matthew Stafford has had this year with the Lions when throwing to Calvin Johnson in the red zone. But as I mentioned earlier, there are also two other advantages that the offense holds, and they're both advantages for a similar reason.

That reason is the short distance between the line of scrimmage and the goal line. Out in the open field a rushing play that only makes 3 yards is not a great gain. It's ok on first down I suppose, but not much use on third and ten. From the three yard line though, a three yard run is a touchdown. On third down and ten with the ball on the 50 yard line, a dump off pass to a running back who picks up 6 yards before being tackled is a win for the defense. The same situation from the 5 yard line results in another touchdown.

And that's what the defense has to be wary about. Short runs and passes suddenly become very dangerous. The shorter the distance, the more dangerous it is. With the ball on the two the defense has to make a choice; when they see run action in the backfield, do they plow in en masse? Doing so gives them a good shot at stopping the 2 yard run, maybe their only shot. But it also leaves them vulnerable to a simple play fake that gets a tight end in a few yards of space on one edge, and boom, you got another touchdown.

So what about if the offense lines up in an empty set? Let's say we're talking about the Green Bay Packers with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. Now Rodgers isn't just one hell of a throwing quarterback, he can sprint to. So are you prepared to put a spy on him? Doing so leaves you one man down in your overall coverage. And are you even sure your guy can keep up with Rodgers? The only alternative is to bring six rushers, fill every gap along the offensive line, and hope that your remaining guys can cover Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Jermichael Finley etc man to man. That's a decision I'm glad I don't have to make.

Even a simple screen pass can be dangerous. Whether it's hitting a wide receiver on the perimeter, or a little dump off to a back from ten yards out, the screen game has lots of damaging potential in the red zone, because even a small gain can result in a score.

Which is why I'm so surprised at the lack of scoring from both the Eagles and Panthers. They've had their opportunities, that's not their problem. They're getting down into the red zone and putting up video game numbers of yards along the way. And the stupid thing is both teams have the perfect set of tools for this kind of work. Having bashed DeSean Jackson and Steve Smith, allow me to now explain.

The Panthers have Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart. Even if we discount DeAngelo Williams for the second on account of his poor season thus far, the Panthers still have two perfect tools for scoring in the red zone. With Cam Newton you have an incredible athlete, whose strength and agility for his size is very impressive. We've seen flashes of what he can do, but the Panthers really need to give this guy a lot of latitude down in the red zone. Go empty, let him have a read of the field, and if he doesn't like it he can run it in himself.

You can even incorporate this with Stewart, a big back with great power who can deliver tremendous hits to defenders, by having run action in one direction with Stewart and with Cam Newton rolling out the opposite side. The threat of these two players travelling in two different directions is enough to give defenses nightmares. With the weapons they have, the Panthers really should be lethal in the red zone. Right now they're not.

The Eagles should be doing even better. They have Mike Vick for a start. He may not be quite as strong as Newton when it comes to breaking tackles, but Vick is probably a step or two quicker, and certainly accelerates quicker. The threat Vick poses to run out of empty sets or on bootlegs off the running game is probably the greatest among all quarterbacks in the NFL. Yet what do we see from the Eagles? Dive/Toss plays up the middle, with complicated blocking and ball handling that the Eagles don't seem to have got the hang of just yet.

To me it seems like a waste. Almost as much of a waste as their lack of a screen game right now. This is what the Eagles under Andy Reid have lived by for years. The combination of McNabb to Westbrook was one of the most dangerous screen games in the entire NFL (which makes it all the more puzzling as to why McNabb is struggling with the screen game in Minnesota). In all honesty, while LeSean McCoy may not be as comfortable with screens as Westbrook was, he's certainly faster than Westbrook was. Right around the red zone would be a great place to get that screen game rolling, especially as we've seen plenty of evidence this season demonstrating how athletic the Eagles linemen can be in open space.

I dunno, it just baffles me that the Eagles and Panthers are struggling as bad as they are. They have the players to make it happen, no question. Play calling? Err.... not so much. Though given how bad they've been so far, I'd expect experienced coaches like Andy Reid and Ron Rivera to get their teams knuckled down into some red zone work during practice over the course of this week.

Of course I also keep waiting for the Cowboys and Vikings to learn how not to blow 20 point leads as well....

So there you have it. That's me vented for another day. Tomorrow I'll be back to do my picks for week 5, with a reduced work load this week as the bye weeks begin. Till then, have fun and spread the word about your favourite blog.

What do you mean which one?

2011 Pre-Season Week 3 (part 1)

As we edge closer to the start of the season it's time to take a look at how the Thursday and Friday games from pre-season week 3 panned out. Starting with...

The Panthers @ Bengals. And you know you're looking bad when this Bengals team can beat you. At this juncture it's probably a good time to point out that the Bengals did most of the damage with their starters against the Panthers starters, before anyone starts talking about third stringers.

Though initially it seemed bright enough for the Panthers with Cam Newton running 16 yards for the first score. But that's kind of where the fun ended for Cam, who finished 6/19 for 75 yards. Yes, 6/19. Now I know he's a rookie but that's still pretty bad. What I love most though is that had this been Tim Tebow in his rookie year, people would have been pouring on the hate. But I'm not hearing it now? Funny that. Ok, I'll make it up for all the lost voices; Newton is going to suck this year. And probably every other year.

There you go.

On the other side Andy Dalton started to show some signs of life, throwing 11/17 for 130 yards and a TD. Getting there Andy. Very slowly, but getting there. The real focus for the Bengals though should be on that running game. Cedric Benson and Bernard Scott combined for 22 carries, producing 131 yards and 2 touchdowns. The vitality of this running attack could just be the key to getting Dalton through the season with some semblance of success.

Next was the Browns @ Eagles. Mike Vick took some lumps for the Eagles, but complimented his 10/18 for 98 yards passing with 4 carries for 24 yards and a TD. Vince Young played the "anything you can do, I can do precisely the same" game, by also carrying 4 times for 24 yards and a TD. Running backs Ronnie Brown and Dion Lewis did a lot of the ground work, but LeSean McCoy was the back that got the cream, with 7 catches for a team leading 69 yards receiving.

For the Browns, Colt McCoy looked a little less assured this time around, with 9/18 for 89 yards plus an interception off a poor decision, throwing the ball under pressure to a waiting Asante Samuel who dropped off his outside receiver and snuck underneath the pass to make a great pick. Seneca Wallace clawed back a TD pass for the Browns, before rookie Jarrett Brown hit the field and went 4/4 for 35 yards and a TD. Kid's had quite a solid pre-season so far.

On defense it was all about the Eagles, who accompanied Samuel's interception with five sacks. They're still not quite the Dream Team in Philadelphia, but at least they look a little less shaky now.

Next was the Redskins @ Ravens, and quite a tight game. The Redskins quarterback battle continues with Rex Grossman throwing 8/15 for 112 yards and a TD to John Becks 6/10 for 108 yards and a TD, plus an INT. Overall I'm not sure who will win. Grossman has had the lions share of the playing time so he has more film for Shanahan and son to review, but I think Beck might just sneak it. He just looks a little sharper in general.

The story of the Redskins is still their running game though. Tim Hightower and rookie Roy Helu put up exactly 100 yards between them on 22 carries. Hightower also had a touchdown. Second year wide receiver Terrence Austin also impressed, with 5 carries for 71 yards and a TD. The 'skins defense also looked a bit better, with an interception by DeAngelo Hall and four sacks as a unit, including single sacks for rookies Ryan Kerrigan and Davonte Shannon.

For the Ravens, Joe Flacco kind of looked better in this game. Sort of. A little. Trying to find nice things to say about someone I don't rate all that much. He finished 17/27 for 219 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception (the DeAngelo Hall pick 6). Rookie Tyrod Taylor definitely improved, with 11/18 for 125 yards and a TD. Running back Ray Rice found his groove (13 carries, 72 yards, 1 TD) as did recent acquisition receiver Lee Evans, who caught 3 passes for 60 yards and a TD. Anquan Boldin had 5 catches for 73 yards and a TD as well. Ladarius Webb stood out on the Ravens D, with an interception and a sack.

Packers @ Colts next. The Curtis Painter saga continues. People have been heaping praise on him in the last few hours but I would say hold up a second. He was 11/21 for 171 yards and 2 touchdowns. That's not bad, but let's face it, for Curtis Painter that is practically a career performance. To top it off, 57 of those hallowed yards came when Reggie Wayne was left wide open as corner Sam Shields tried to emulate Asante Samuel's baiting trick from the day before... except Samuel had a safety playing the proper technique over the top and Shields didn't. The result was the Wayne TD. And Painter still sucks.

Aaron Rodgers doesn't though, finishing the game 19/23 for 204 yards and a TD, while looking just as slick as he did in last years Super Bowl. Except for that stupid moustache come beard thing he's sporting now. You're not rock and roll Aaron. AC/DC will not be calling anytime soon. "Rookie" Graham Harrell (he's 26 and played in the pre-season last year) then came in and finished the game 12/21 for 85 yards, an interception, but also a touchdown with just 35 seconds left on the clock, followed by a two point conversion.

The Packers then caught the Colts napping with an onside kick, demonstrating the lack of game management from Colts Head Coach Jim Caldwell that hurt his team at times last year.

Both defenses did well. The Packers had 4 sacks, one by Clay Matthews and the other three coming from rookies. The Colts D produced 5, including two for Dwight Freeney and one for former Bear Tommie Harris. This is definitely a positive sign, given that in the Peyton Manning era the defense has often let down the rest of the team.

Finally for today we have the Rams @ Chiefs. Quarterback Sam Bradford looked ok for the Rams, throwing 9/16 for 95 yards and 2 touchdowns, but also a dangerous interception while backed up near his own goal line, as he failed to see the grossly under rated linebacker Derrick Johnson lurking in underneath coverage. Johnson also had a sack. Rams back up A.J. Feely was 8/13 for 65 yards and an interception.

The Rams rushing attack did much better though. Steven Jackson turned 15 carries into 72 yards while Cadillac Williams carried 12 times for 53 yards. Rookie Tight End Lance Kendricks has been making me look good for calling him better than Kyle Rudolph and he continued that theme against the Chiefs with 2 catches for 26 yards and a touchdown. On defense, rookie defensive end Robert Quinn restored my rookie predicting karma to zero, by defying my criticism of him and having a sack/fumble, plus blocking a field goal.

But then on the Chiefs side Ricky Stanzi tried to get me back on the plus side for this game, finally pulling his finger out of his arse to throw 8/14 for 121 yards and a lovely touchdown pass, with no interceptions. Keep it up. Matt Cassel meanwhile wallowed in his own personal well of mediocrity, with 6/13 for 59 yards. Tip; when you make Tyler Palko look good (7/12, 92 yards) then you're doing something very wrong.

That's it for today. If you think I'm doing all of Saturdays games in one marathon chunk tomorrow then you've got another thing coming. I'll likely be back Monday night (technically Tuesday morning here). Till then, have a good weekend, enjoy the football and don't forget to hit the Facebook-like-button-thingy at the bottom.

Do it.

NFC South Prospects

So I planned this going up earlier, but when you over sleep, you over sleep. Again, we'll do this alphabetically. Atlanta Falcons: Having stormed the regular season, it might be easy to think that Atlanta will simply come back next year and everything will be the same once more. Right? They won 13 games. 13!!! Surely that's not the kind of team you need to go toying around with? But it is. We can't get away from the fact that Atlanta did, at many times, ride their luck. Trust me, I'm a 49ers fan. We took a bitter loss early-ish in the season when we should have walked home safely with the win. Unfortunately our defensive backs are fond of carrying the ball on interception and fumble returns as if they were parading the Super Bowl around Candlestick Park. Now I should temper that by saying that you don't win 13 games purely on the back of luck. Nobody is that lucky. It does take some input for the players and coaches beyond just "show up, be lucky". But the stage is set for potentially a big fall in 2011, so free agency and the draft could be a dicey time for the Falcons this year. In free agency both the Falcons punter and kicker are up for unrestricted free agency, as are some other important names like; offensive linemen Justin Blalock, Harvey Dahl & Tyson Clabo, WR Brian Finneran, and running backs Jerious Norwood and Jason Snelling. That's a big loss to the Falcons if those guys leave. The offensive line has been a consistent strength for Atlanta over the last few seasons, while Norwood and Snelling have been solid back ups to Michael Turner who has had some issues with injury. If all of those guys leave, expect the Falcons to take a big step back right there. On the restricted list is two names that are also worth mentioning. One is Brent Grimes, the cornerback who had an exceptional season for Atlanta this year. The other is receiver Eric Weems, who became a big impact player in the return game. As restricted free agents their departure is less likely, but don't forget for example that the Patriots are lurking and have two picks in every round. Belichick might just feel like parting with a pick to acquire a player of Grimes's ability to boost his ailing secondary. As for the draft? Even if the Falcons get most of their free agents back, their offensive line could use a lower pick for some depth, their linebacking corps could use one more key player to take the field with Lofton and Weatherspoon, and the defensive back corps badly needs upgrading. A shiny new receiver wouldn't go amiss either. Atlanta picks 27th overall in the first round. Looking ahead to 2011 it could go either way. The Buccaneers are on the rise. The Panthers may be too, depending on how well their off season goes. The Saints had another strong year in 2010 and so Atlanta's 13 win record is in serious danger this season. If they stumble in the off season it is perfectly foreseeable that they might finish 3rd in 2011. Still, they always have Matty "Ice". Yeah, don't hold your breath. Carolina Panthers: It's all change in Carolina after a shockingly bad season. Ron Rivera, former Chargers defensive coordinator, will be taking over the head coaching role this season. Good luck to you sir. Rob Chudzinski will run the offense, having previously served as the Chargers tight ends coach. That might be a surprise success (notice I said might) as the Chargers have done well at the tight end position recently and Rivera obviously knows the guy from working with him, so he must have some faith in his abilities. Sean McDermott, formerly of the Eagles, will take over the defense. Which is where things get interesting. Both Rivera and McDermott are more 3-4 pedigree guys. The Panthers are all about the 4-3. Will they take the same approach Washington did in the off season and try to make the switch to a 3 man front? They're certainly bursting with pass rush talent, so maybe they'll try and get some of those guys to take their hands out of the dirt and rush from a two point stance? It's not all doom and gloom though. McDermott may have come from a 3-4 lineage, but the Eagles have essentially been running 4-3 for the last couple of seasons so he has some experience handling this type of front. It's just the tools that pose the big problem, and how to get the best out of them. In free agency the Panthers have a long list to keep an eye on. Some of the names that jump out at me are tight ends Jeff King and Dante Rosario, whose departure would leave the Panthers with just Gary Barnidge. That's not good, especially as the Panthers have leaned on their tight ends a lot lately. King and Rosario (and Barnidge) don't get anywhere near enough credit for what they do for the Panthers. The big name on the way out of course is RB DeAngelo Williams. I've said it before and I'll say it again; I think the Panthers should let him leave. They have Jonathan Stewart, who is a very good back. They have Mike Goodson who is a pretty good back up. They really don't need Williams now. Better to let him go and use some of the free cap money to improve the rest of the team. Two other names that stick out from the list are Center Ryan Kalil and QB Matt Moore. Moore is the big one. Do they bring him back for another shot? Do they roll with Jimmy Clausen and Tony Pike? Or do they hit the draft and bring in yet another QB fresh from the college game? Glad I'm not running the Panthers, that's all I'll say. Which brings us neatly to the draft itself. They have the number one pick overall and they have needs all over the shop. If they can, my guess is the Panthers will drop down the draft ladder. They seriously need the extra picks to start covering all these holes. Wide Receiver is a huge hole, defensive back is a huge hole. They could use another quality linebacker. They need a QB from somewhere. And they might need some new tight ends as well. Honestly, 2011 for the Panthers will center on rebuilding. Panther fans should brace for another crappy season, not because they can't compete but because it is time for someone to come in and stamp their mark on this team. That means saying "this is how we're going to play, but it'll take some time to get it right, even if we lose some along the way". Patience from the fan base will be required. More importantly, patience from the ownership will be required too. Good luck Carolina, I don't hate you really. Well. Maybe a little. New Orleans Saints: The Saints had the dubious honour of being the first NFL team to get dumped in the playoffs by a team with a losing record. Nice work guys. But they did us all a favour really. They proved that the "any given Sunday" rule can still happen in the modern NFL and that even a 7-9 team should be allowed in if it wins it's division. So where now for the Saints? Well, they've managed to keep hold of their coaching staff, but free agency is going to be all kinds of fun. By my maths they have 27 unrestricted free agents. Twenty seven. If you draw up the list of players at each position that will be left if all the free agents leave, it looks like a High School team where the offensive starters are defensive backups and vice versa. I'm just going to list some of the notables; Jermon Bushrod OT, Heath Evans FB, Jonathan Goodwin C, Anthony Hargrove DE/DT, Roman Harper S, Julius Jones RB, Kawika Mitchell LB, Lance Moore WR, Courtney Roby WR, Scott Shanle LB, Darren Sharper S and Pierre Thomas RB. Now as far as the running backs are concerned, that's not a huge issue for the Saints. They have spares so to speak. Wide receiver is an issue of sorts, given how wide open the Saints like to play. Charles Brown could fill for Bushrod, depending on how well he's developed since the 2010 draft. But linebacker and safety are two huge concerns for the Saints. Picking 24 in the draft, I see this being a very defense heavy approach. Unless they can bring some guys back or reach out into free agency and find some talent, the linebacking and safety corps are going to be barren come draft day. I imagine the Saints will prioritise their pass rush, given their tendency to jump ahead of teams in games and forcing them to pass to get back into the game. 2011 outlook then? Erm, grim I would say. Sort of. The Buccaneers are rising. Atlanta can come back strong. Carolina will be... Carolina. But the Saints defense is going to be holding its breath this offseason. If they can't recoup their loses then it's going to be a miserable year for the 2011 Saints. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Ah Tampa Bay, the pirates that you can trust. Sort of. They had a resurgence in 2010 off the back of some exceptional work by Josh Freeman. Sort of. And some greatly improved defensive play. Sort of. Free agency offers up a mixed bag for the Buc's. Some names stand out at me; Ronde Barber CB, Quincy Black LB, Barrett Ruud LB and Jeremy Trueblood OT. Barber is a mixed bag. He's old, but he still seems to come up with plays now and again. Trueblood's loss will be a problem, but Black and Ruud are the main concerns. The Buc's have some talent at linebacker, but they need Ruud and Black back to support their defense. As for the draft, they pick at 20 which is almost unknown territory for the Buc's in recent years. Where will they go with this? I honestly am not sure. After last years performance in the draft and with signing undrafted free agents, the Buc's are in a nice spot. I imagine that the subject of running backs will eventually come up, as LaGarrette Blount can't do it all himself. A true pass rushing defensive end will probably top the list unless they decide to slide McCoy over (where he's shown potential). Another receiver would be nice, as well as another inside linebacker. Overall though, the 2011 Buccaneers have their sights on the playoffs. Their division could be in a very vulnerable state this year. If the Falcons lose their O-line and the Saints lose their defense, to free agency that is, then nothing is standing in the way of Tampa having a run at the division title. Even just a moderately good free agency and draft will set them up nicely. So with that, we come to the end of the NFC South 2011 preview thingy. Next up is the NFC West, which will be posted around Thursday or Friday. As for the CBA situation.... err, nothing has changed. We're still headed towards a delayed start to the 2011 season and honestly I've given up caring to some degree. The arguments being put forward by both sides are mundane in the extreme, neither side seems to really give a shit about the fans and their persistence in trying to convince us of how wonderful they are and how evil the other side is doesn't wash. As always in these things, it's all about the money and has nothing to do with the quality of the game and fairness. If it did, we could probably solve all this crap in a few hours with some strong coffee, swiss iced buns and a few well placed punches. Have a great day everyone.

Sorry, who did you say is the new Denver coach? WTF?

Tomorrow; previews of the Divisional round. Today; just random banter. Starting with... -- Jamie Dukes of the NFL Network, on air, calling a pick play for what it is. Yeah, this old chestnut again. Like I keep saying, it's in the rulebook so if they're not going to call it then guys like James Harrison have a case for complaining about why the league should be allowed to fine them excessively for the infringement of other rules, representing a clear bias in favour of the offense. If this went to a work tribunal for a normal job an employer would be hard pressed to justify allowing some employees to break certain rules but not others. -- The Cleveland Browns have found themselves a new Head Coach, Pat Shurmur. Pat spent nearly ten years as the QB coach for the Eagles, before taking a job on Steve Spagnuolo's staff as the offensive coordinator of the Rams. Head Coaching material? Hmm. Time will tell I guess, but there's growing rumblings around certain corners of the web that this a puppet assignment, with Mike Holmgren (The Dark Lord of the West Coast Offense) obviously the one pulling the strings. Personally I don't see how this is an upgrade over Mangini (do you realise how much it hurts me to defend him) and with the possibility that Rob Ryan might be shown the door soon as well, I'm not entirely sure that Browns fans are going to like the direction their franchise is headed. Of course this could do the opposite and instead provide an invigorating spark that the franchise needs. Just don't count on it. -- Yes, did I mention; Rob Ryan could be on his way out. I would reference you to the original article where I sourced the information, but bugger me if I haven't deleted the bloody link at some point. Trust me though the rumours are out there. If he does happen to be going free this off season, may I kindly and politely ask Jim Harbaugh to go snatch him. Ryan is a good coordinator with a good pedigree. It's just a shame that the Browns personnel has sucked balls for so long. -- Next, the first of two trips to deadspin.com starting with this article by Nate Jackson. To be honest I disagree with a fair chunk of this and have real trouble taking the players side in the CBA argument, but please note I only take the leagues side because I happen to be a Capitalist and because I think the owners are the lesser of two evils in this one. This letter though is aimed purely at Rodger Goodell and made me laugh at times as he stuck it to the worst thing to hit the NFL since Ryan Leaf. -- And now we return to Deadspin.com for quite simply the funniest, truest and generally most entertaining letters I've ever seen. Found here. -- Not so much an article or anything, but it's worth reading the comments sections in the above two articles. It seems that unlike a lot of the mainstream sites, deadspin seems to have a strange power that draws in comparably larger numbers of intelligent people to comment on it's articles than say.... most of the major networks and their affiliates. -- Finally, the Broncos have swooped on the hottest coaching candidate for 2011; John Fox! Wait, what? John Fox? What happened to John Elway promising that money would be no barrier to the Broncos getting the best candidate? Or is this a hire made in light of the fact that the Saints Greg Williams flat declined an offer to interview for the job? Well, what's done is done, so let's just remind ourselves of who John Fox is. He started with around 10 years experience coaching in college, mainly handling defensive backs. Then he hit the pro ranks in the early 90's with the Steelers and later the Chargers, before getting a coordinator gig with the Raiders. He moved across to the Giants to perform the same role. He then spent from 2002 until this season as head coach of the Panthers. During that time he compiled a 73-71 regular season record, with a 5-3 post season record. That included taking the Panthers to the Super Bowl in the '03 season and to the NFC Championship game in '05. From 2006 onwards however the Panthers had just one winning season in 5 under Fox, when they went 12-4 in 2008 before crashing out Arizona in the playoffs. And that is what worries me. Fox has a reputation as a solid defensive coach and certainly in Carolina he was able to put together a reasonably strong D. But the offense in the last few years has been atrocious. In that '08 season the Panthers had been running ball very well and did so right up until the second drive of the game against Arizona. Having toasted the Cardinals D on the opening drive with their rushing attack, the Panthers now got cute and it all went down hill from there. Now former QB Jake Delhomme is playing (or rather watching from the bench) in Cleveland and Fox is off to try and recover the Broncos. Some of the blame for that has to fall at Fox's own feet. I understand that coordinators are responsible for running their side of the ball, but the Head Coach is ultimately responsible for wins and losses, and thus by default he must make himself responsible for the performance of all the facets of his team. That means that if his offense isn't pulling its weight, he has to step in and make sure that it does. His failure to exercise some measure of control over the Panthers offense is the reason I don't like Fox. He had the ability to pull his offensive coordinator to one side during any of the many weeks this season (or last) and quietly whisper into the guys ear "run the fu-reaking football". But what about Dick LeBeau in Pittsburgh I hear you cry. He has almost untouched control over the Steelers defense, so shouldn't all coordinators. Well Dick LeBeau has one major factor in his favour; proven success. You have to remember that success brought about LeBeaus current level of autonomy, not the other way around. Which is more than can be said for the Panthers. Play to your strengths. "Know Thyself". Know yourself and the enemy. All the things that the Chiefs failed to do against the Ravens on Sunday. These are things the Panthers have been doing for the last two years. Despite a strong running attack that proved its immense worth in 2008, the Panthers under Fox stubbornly refused to make use of their ground game, wasting the valuable talents of guys like DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. That pisses me off and I imagine it annoyed a few Panthers fans as well. Will things get better in Denver under Fox? I'm sorry but it don't think they will. Denver have some wonderful young talents on their team so I hope for their sake that it does pan out alright in the end.

Conquering Revis Island

See, I did think of something eventually. So stop moaning. How many writers do you know who churn out something almost everyday? Exactly, so shut up. Anyway. Ron Rivera has been confirmed as the new Head Coach of the Carolina Panthers. This left many fans in Carolina going.... who? The answer is the man behind the San Diego Chargers defense in 2010, which many people still seem to have a hard time believing was the number 1 rated D in the regular season in terms of total yardage. Rivera played as a linebacker for the Bears and was part of the winning team of Super Bowl 20, learning much about his craft under the guidance of Buddy Ryan. After his playing career was done, Rivera then turned to coaching and has since had -- at least to date -- an exceptionally good run. He has learned as an assistant from both Jimmy Johnson and Lovie Smith & was the defensive coordinator for the Bears in 2006 when they won the NFC Championship and went to Super Bowl 41. His spell in San Diego as the defensive coordinator has also been highly successful in terms of raw numbers. The question now becomes, how will he fit in with Carolina? The Panthers are a 4-3 team, which is markedly different from the 3-4 scheme that Rivera ran in San Diego. He'll have to adjust to the personnel given him and hopefully try to avoid the problem the Redskins encountered when they tried to switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 in one season. Luckily the Panthers do actually have a pretty good pass rush, which is a boon for an aggressive minded coach like Rivera. Just looking at it on the surface, I think this might turn out to be a good hire. What the Panthers now need is an offensive coordinator who can sort out Jimmy Clausen, and hopefully (please God!) someone who understands that the Panthers offensive strength lies in their ground game. If the Panthers go after an air assault minded coach like Josh McDaniels, I think it might end in tears, at least from an offensive perspective. We'll see. Now, time to get back to form and have another moan. I'm a very cynical individual, as you might have guessed. I believe that fundamentally the world is about balance and that in order to excel in one area, you naturally have to make a sacrifice somewhere else, at least to a degree. This is why I hate hearing about teams/players who are supposedly "unstoppable", like the always "unstoppable" Colts who lost six games in the regular season and then got dumped out of the playoffs by Rex Ryan and the Jets on Saturday. In fact, it's funny I should mention the Jets because that's exactly where I'm headed with this point (odd that, almost like it was planned in advance...). More pointedly, we're all going on a trip to "Revis Island", possibly the most laughable of all the "unstoppable" myths. The first thing I want to quash is the notion of it being an Island in the first place. To me putting a defender on an island means -- as the name would suggest -- that the player is being essentially abandoned to his own devices, with no help from the rest of the team. There's your side of the field, that's the receiver you have to cover, now off you go. No help over the top, no bracket coverage from the inside. And yet a cursory glance back through the unintended video library that is NFL.com shows us that Revis very often receives safety help over the top. Now call me a miserable git who is being far too picky (because I probably am), but that is not this mythical "Island" that we keep hearing about. That's cover two, the same as a lot of teams play. But what makes it even more nauseating is having to listen to people talk about Revis as some kind of Demi-God of defensive football, as if he can supposedly cover a player merely by looking at him. Instead a closer inspection of the film (which never lies) shows that Revis merely attempts to make a mockery of the laws of equilibrium by overplaying the deep ball. There is your shutdown corner. A corner who is most certainly capable of covering over the top and taking away the go route/post route. But unbeatable? Not really. Let's pinch some screen shots from the latest episode of NFL Networks "Playbook" show to make the point. As always we'll start with my cack handed attempt at a disclaimer. The original video can be found here, on NFL.com. The video is naturally produced entirely by them, owned by them etc. The pictures included in this article are merely screen shots, and thanks to some handy work by the Playbook team and some judicious use of the pause button, I've had no need to make any modifications to the pictures. All graphics are those put on in the original video. Right, so let's get to it. The first picture I have for you shows Revis matched up with Reggie Wayne (they've handily been circled in yellow by presenter Brian Baldinger). After the game Wayne had complained about the fact that he was only targeted once. Cue a series of articles and comments from people saying that Wayne should STFU because he was sitting on "Revis Island" the whole game. (For the less Internet lingo savvy of my readers, STFU is a way of writing 'Shut The Fuck Up' on your website without having to swear. Clever huh? ..... ah shit). Anyway, the video evidence suggests differently. It suggests to us that in fact Revis Island was welcoming visitors to come to it's beaches, steal it's coconuts, woo the native women, and then jump back on a speedboat and disappear off into the sunset. As indeed it does every week. What you need to look at on Picture one is that Revis is playing over the top of Wayne. This is basically what Revis does. He starts off a few yards off the receiver. When the receiver comes off the line at him he turns, makes contact with his arm (which he can maintain as long as likes, providing his hand doesn't come off the receiver at any point and he doesn't push him) and then he simply rides the receiver down the field. If the receiver goes inside at the snap, then he assumes a position outside and high of him. If the receiver takes an outside release at the snap, then Revis simply slots in above and to the inside. That happens to make Revis quite vulnerable to being undercut; that is to say, if the receiver breaks underneath Revis then there isn't a lot he can do about it. Remember what I was saying earlier about balance? Revis is playing over the top in order to more effectively take away the deep ball and increase the chances that a poorly thrown pass will either be batted down or picked off. But by over compensating for the deep pass he is setting himself up to be exploited underneath. Just take a look at our second picture. Here you can see at the bottom of the screen that Wayne has Revis thoroughly beaten. The little red blob in the image is the ball which is being thrown to Pierre Garcon on a post route at the top of the picture. This play actually resulted in a touchdown. But the point is that Revis has been beaten. Wayne is standing on the zero of the big 40 and thanks to convenience of the hash markings we can tell that Wayne has approximately 3-4 yards of separation on Revis, which by NFL standards is wide, wide open. Wayne achieves this, as you'll see when you watch the video, by running a deep hooking route. The route in question is most commonly referred to as a deep comeback, with the receiver "breaking down" to slow himself, having travelled around 20 yards. He then turns and loses ground while heading to the outside away from the defender. It is a route that perfectly exploits the way Revis likes to play. When the receiver takes an outside release Revis slots in above him and to the inside. When Wayne breaks down, Revis overshoots and when he finally does turn he has no hope of getting back to the ball. We'll see this happen again in shots 3 and 4. In shot 3 (above) you can see Revis and Wayne circled, with Manning apparently staring right at them. Then Wayne hits the "Comeback" route on Revis and we can see in figure 4 that he is wide open at the top of the screen. Wayne is standing on the 50 yard line which is handy because it makes judging distances easier. Again we can tell using the hash marks that Revis is 3 yards off of Wayne. So hopefully now we've proved two things: 1) That the mythical "Revis Island" is just that; a myth. 2) That the idea of Revis being some kind of all covering, footballing Demi-God is also a myth perpetuated for the purposes of promotion, either by self or by others. I'm not saying that Revis is not a very good corner. He is. We know that much for certain. Unlike many corners for example (*cough* Cromartie) he is prepared to get his helmet in there and hit people. Rex Ryan likes a tough D and he has a tough corner in Revis. Revis is also quick, smart, has good hands and works hard. But he's not unbeatable. He's not invincible. He can be beaten with the Deep Comeback and I imagine the Deep In route (sometimes referred to as a "Dig") would also work pretty well. And he rarely lives on a Island. Just one last thing though before I go. Every time I watch a "Playbook" segment, I admire presenter Brian Baldinger for his knowledge and the way he turns the spotlight onto some of the unsung heroes like offensive linemen, but there are two seriously annoying things about the guy. First off, he is cursed with that same kind of facial appearance that Colts Center Jeff Saturday has, where they both look like they're wearing more eye makeup than Lady Gaga. The second is that every time he goes up to the one of the TV's to start drawing lines and circles, he keeps touching his damn nose! I swear! Every two seconds he's doing it. Watch the video again and keep an eye out for it. I have no idea why the hell it bugs me so much, but is just does. I feel better now I've got that off my chest.

Thursday Night pick and some Nickel and dime stuff

Just a quick hello and how are you? Good, time to make a pick for the Week 16 Thursday Night game. Carolina Panthers @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Do I really have to sit down and go through this one? The Panthers may have won at the weekend but that had little to do with the Panthers inherent ability to win tough games and a hell of a lot to do with playing the Cardinals. The Steelers will not prove to be such a cake walk. Even though they've booked a place in the post season, the Steelers still haven't secured for sure the AFC North, so they definitely still have something to play for. Now despite the loss of Troy Polamalu, the Steelers still have an excellent defense, and certainly they have a favourable match up on Thursday. They're pretty good from a run defense perspective and running is just about the only thing the Panthers entire team does well. You also have to remember that the Panthers lean heavily on their tight ends to make plays in the passing game, so the loss of speed & play making instincts in the Steelers secondary shouldn't be too noticeable in this one. Sorry Panthers fans, but I'm taking the Steelers. Steelers win. Now for something a little different. Basically I want to talk to you about Nickel Backs, as in the extra defensive back typically brought onto the field by defenses that are expecting a pass and/or are facing a three wide receiver set. To say what I want to say about Nickel backs, I need a bit of a visual aid so I'm going to pinch a diagram from the Blitzology blog (http://www.blitzology.blogspot.com/) Ahh, that's better. My apology's to Blitzology for chaffing their picture. So the character that we're interested in is represented -- unsurprisingly -- by the letter "N". What interests me about this image is that it shows the Nickel back aligned just slightly inside the slot receiver to the right of the picture. This is something we're seeing more and more of in both College football and the NFL, though the inside alignment of that Nickel back is often even more dramatic than you see here, sometimes splitting the difference between the slot receiver and the offensive tackle to that side. What this does is provides the defensive coordinator with a remarkable degree of flexibility. Despite being shifted inward, the Nickel back can still cover the slot receiver man-to-man, providing the receiver doesn't slant hard to the sideline at the snap. He can also drop back into a short zone. He can trade zones with a linebacker. He can dash out and play the underneath zone to the far right while the corner drops deep into, say, cover 3. Importantly, the Nickel back can still blitz the QB off the edge and is in good position to play as the primary force defender on a run play to his side of the field. Even more importantly, he doesn't need to tip off the QB through alignment to do any of these things. As I said, if you watch enough college clips you'll see this tactic is becoming increasingly common place. Even the NFL is starting to latch on. Of course what is needed to play this role is a solid all round defender; someone who can play zone coverage, can cover a slot receiver (typically a teams 3rd choice wide out) man-to-man, and someone who -- unlike a lot of corners -- has the balls to get stuck in against the run. Notice then that the Green Bay Packers are increasingly shifting CB Charles Woodson inside to handle this duty. Woodson can cover in both man and zone. He still has the speed to blitz. And he is a rare(ish) breed among corners in that he has no problems putting his shoulder in and taking on a lead blocking fullback or a pulling lineman. This I think is important. It sets a precedent for defensive coordinators in how to handle 3 wide receiver offensive sets. It also highlights the impact that a quality all-round Nickel back can bring to a modern NFL defense. I'd venture to say that rookie Syd'Quan Thompson of the Broncos fits the mold well and that increasingly we may see teams reach out in the draft in the next year or two looking for a well rounded corner prospect to come in and be a teams "Super Nickelback". Just a thought. Keep your eyes peeled and your ear to the ground on that one. Here's another thought while you're at it; in March/April of this year, the going trade rate for Michael Vick was a second round pick. It was widely believed that, that was all the Eagles would ask for him. Now I appreciate that much of his success in Philadelphia this year can be attributed to the next potential "Queen Prima Donna" of the NFL -- DeSean Jackson -- but still, Vick on his own is a formidable package. For a second round pick, he'd be looking like a complete steal right about now. Just check this out (you'll need to create an account. I tried embedding it but it's being an asshole.) Tomorrow I shall be back at some point with a quick recap of the Thursday Night game, but hopefully either attached to that post or somewhere in between that post and this one, I'd like to hand out my award for the "Most Improved Analyst From a Major Network" award. Or as I like to call it; the MIAFMN award. And the winner is..... don't be a cheap skate. Comeback tomorrow to find out. Laters.

Saturday Night Football round up

Saturday Night Results time: -- Browns 27 @ Lions 35: There's a funny thing about football. Typically when two good teams get together, the end result is rubbish. They're so good, so tight and play so conservatively that they often end up having a boring contest. Conversely when you put two bad teams together, the result is often an explosive and sometimes comical clash. This is what happened when two bad teams came together again. A Browns FG got us started, then Stafford found Johnson (Bryant, not Calvin) in the end zone. Then Eric Wright returned a fumble to the end zone for the Browns before Jake Delhomme found Lawrence Vickers with a 5-yard TD pass. Then Lions DB Chris Houston returned a Browns fumble for a score, only for the Browns to hit back with a TD run by Peyton Hillis to end the first half scoring. The second half scoring began with a Kevin Smith TD run for the Lions from 2-yards out, followed by another Browns FG. Two short TD runs by Lions RB Aaron Brown finally put the game to bed. Jake Delhomme finished 20/25 for 152 yards and a TD...... and 0 INTs!! Colt McCoy finished 10/14 for 76 yards and made a valiant attempt at a last drive down the field with about 4 minutes remaining but it was not to be. Matthew Stafford finished 13/17 for 141 yards and a TD. Jahvid Best led the Lions in rushing yards, taking his sole carry for 51 yards and showing good vision to use his blockers down field. -- Bengals 20 @ Bills 35: Robin may have got his TD, but Mr. Freeze wins the Twitter battle (well, technically Mr. Freezes minions do). It began with Carson Palmer to Jermaine Gresham for a TD, followed by Trent Edwards to Roscoe Parrish to tie the score. Then Palmer found Ochocinco to make it 14-7, only for C.J. Spiller to come back with 2 rushing TDs for the Bills. A third quarter FG gave the Bengals hope, then Ryan Fitzpatrick found David Nelson with a 20 yard TD pass to crush it. The Bengals mustered another FG, but then Jordan Palmer (confused?) looked right, threw right.... and was picked off for six by the most aptly named CB in the league; Reggie Corner. Carson Palmer finished 9/11 for 95 yards and 2 TDs. Jordan Palmer; 7/12 for 116 yards and an INT. Cedric Benson led the Bengals on the ground with 8 carries for 50 yards and Quan Cosby topped the receivers with 4 catches for 82 yards. Bengals LB Brandon Johnson tied for the lead on his team for tackles with Roddrick Muckelroy (on my rookie watch list) with 5. Geno Atkins (also on the list) bagged himself yet another sack. For the Bills Trent Edwards finished 13/17 for 153 yards and a TD. Ryan Fitzpatrick came home with 6/9 for 77 yards and a TD. Naturally C.J. Spiller led the Bills backs with 12 carries for 52 yards and 2 TDs. Roscoe Parrish topped the receivers with four catches for 56 yards and a TD. -- Jaguars 19 @ Buccaneers 13: They say that lightning never strikes in the same place twice. One thing it certainly does seem to do is to follow the Jaguars around wherever they go, delaying their games like an ominous attempt from above to delay the inevitable. Except in this case the Jags won, so maybe it worked in their favour. After exchanging field goals, Josh Johnson found RB Earnest Graham to give the Bucs' a 10-3 lead, with the Jags pulling back another FG before half time. The third quarter saw another exchange of field goals, then Luke McCown zipped a beauty 27 yards to John Matthews to make it 16-13, with a 4th quarter FG by the Jags wrapping it up. Garrard ended the game 24/31 for 211 yards and an INT, while Luke McCown went 9/14 for 76 yards, a TD and an INT. Josh Johnson led the Bucs' with 9/14 for 122 yards and a TD, while his replacement Rudy Carpenter went 4/13 for 37 yards and then threw a pick on a last hope jump ball. Rookie Buccaneers WR Mike Williams (4th round, 101st overall) has been getting rave reviews in camp and finished the game with 3 catches for 83 yards. The Bucs' also provided the only true defensive standouts, with CB Ronde Barber and LB Quincy Black both recording 7 tackles. -- Giants 10 @ Ravens 24: It was over almost before it began. A FG and two 2nd quarter touchdowns for the Ravens was met by the Giants with a single field goal. In the 4th quarter an exchange of TDs left the differential where it had been at half time. Manning played and went 9/18 for 63 yards and an INT, while Rhett Bomar produced 10/20 for 140 yards and a TD pass to WR Victor Cruz who continues to impress, leading the Giants with 4 catches for 76 yards and a TD. For the Ravens, Flacco went 21/34 for 229 yards, 2 TDs (Todd Heap and Anquan Boldin) and an INT. Troy Smith also impressed with 8/11 for 71 yards and a TD. The rushing standout for the game was Giants RB Brandon Jacobs, who notched 41 yards from 6 carries and showed a surprising burst to get to the outside and turn up field. Defensively the Giants finally got some pass rush together, bagging 5 sacks total (2 for Rocky Bernard, 2 for Justin Tuck and 1 from Linval Joseph). Antrel Rolle led the team in tackles with 7. For the Ravens, Haruki Nakamura came up with an interception which - coupled with his special teams play recently - might just be enough to grab a roster spot. -- Cowboys 7 @ Texans 23: It's early days yet. There's still time to improve. It's not the end of the world to lose a few games in pre-season. It's not a true reflection of how we'll play in the regular season. These are all lines Head Coach Wade Philips will be trying to feed the press over the next few weeks to try and convince them that the world as Dallas knows it is not about to implode. I personally believe however, that Wade Phillips is a coaching genius. Yes, a genius. Because (yes, I know; grammar) there is only one possible explanation as to why Tony Romo was playing like Curtis Painter, why the Cowboys RBs have hardly been seen all pre-season (a combined 9 carries for Choice, Barber and Jones in this game) and why the Cowboys D looked like the Lions D. Phillips is saving it all for week one. Like a cunning general of yester year, he is hiding away his forces true strength while putting on a ruse, a display to lull his enemies into a false sense of security. It's either that, or the Cowboys are in some serious s**t this season. Romo went 13/18 for 146 yards and an INT, while giving up some tough sacks and some hilarious fumbles. The Texans did slightly better. Matt Schaub went 18/29 for 183 yards and a TD. Arian Foster did the impossible and actually produced a 100 yard rusher for the Texans, getting 110 yards and a TD off 18 carries. The defense produced 3 sacks and the O-line kept Schaub upright all through the game. It's almost like they read my preview post from yesterday and did the complete opposite. I mean, if this had been a regular season game they'd have definitely cost me a pick as well as making me look like a right a**. Wait... this seems familiar.... like.... Carolina.......... !! ........... I hate the Texans. -- Seahawks 13 @ Vikings 24: When Favre threw a pick to rookie safety Earl Thomas who returned it for a TD, Seahawks fans could be forgiven for thinking that they were about to take a big scalp. Sadly not, as Adrian Peterson then rumbled home on a powerful 24 yard run to level the score. TD passes from Sage Rosenfels and Joe Webb to Javon Walker and Ryan D'Imperio respectively sealed the deal (plus FGs). Favre finished 16/26 for 187 yards and 2 INTs, as well as fumbling on a sack by Chris Clemons. Rosenfels did better; 5/6, 71 yards and a TD. Charlie Whitehurst 'led' the Seahawks with 12/26 for 138 yards and an INT, while Matt Hasselbeck ended up with 9/17 for 126 yards. Chris Clemons stood out defensively for the Seahawks, getting 3 tackles, 2 sacks and a forced fumble. The Vikings D also managed a combined 3 sacks. -- Titans 7 @ Panthers 15: See, this is what I'm talking about! This is why I hate the Panthers! Since when, WHEN has the Panthers D in the last few years ever produced 7 sacks?! SEVEN! A** clowns. Even despite this the Titans still appeared to be heading for victory when Kerry Collins found Jerry Cook in the 4th quarter for a TD. But on the ensuing kick off the Titans inexplicably managed to pile four guys onto RB Mike Goodson without bringing him down and with a superb second effort he broke free and carried the ball all the way to the house for 91 yard kick return TD. Kerry Collins finished 6/10 112 yards, a TD and an INT. Vince Young; 6/9 for 48 yards. Matt Moore led the Panthers QB pair with 18/33 for 190 yards. Jimmy Clausen 4/5 for 79 yards. What really boggles the mind is that the Titans hardly called on their rushing attack. Chris Johnson received just 10 carries and Blount and Ringer combined for just 9 more. Defensively the Titans stand out was rookie DB Alterraun Verner (appearing soon in a Star Wars movie near you) with 5 tackles, an assist and a forced fumble. The Panthers D was lead in tackles by LB Jon Beason with 5. DE Charles Johnson ended with 4 tackles and 2 sacks. Greg Hardy, Richard Marshall, Everette Brown, Charles Godfrey and Eric Moore all took home a single sack each. Brown in particular looked quick on his feet and was in among the pressure all game long. 3rd year corner Brian Witherspoon capped the show with 2 INTs. I hate the Panthers. -- Cardinals 14 @ Bears 9: I like the Bears. You know what you're getting with the Bears. You know that a) their rushing attack will be chronic and b) Jay Cutler will inevitably bottle it and throw a few Interceptions. This game being a case in point. Maybe a little harsh. Chester Taylor led the Bears backs with 36 yards off 5 carries (Bears fans; just gloss over the 34 yard run that contributed most of the yards). Cutler finished 10/20 for 129 yards and 2 INTs. Dan LeFevour did better; 10/12 for 110 yards and a TD. For the Cardinals both Anderson and Leinart did well. Anderson; 7/12, 94 yards and a TD. Leinart; 9/10 for 84 yards and a TD. Tim Hightower was the RB stand out with 8 carries for 62 yards and the Cardinals rookie WR Steven Williams led all WR with 5 catches for 79 yards and a TD. -- 49ers 28 @ Raiders 24: Roll on week 6! Well, Kind of. Jason Campbell went out injured after going 6/8 for 93 yards, which meant that Bruce Gradkowski experienced a little deja vu, stepping in once again for the starting QB in Oakland. And you have to feel sorry for Gradkowski. Once more he took the chance with both hands and posted 14/22 for 202 yards and 2 TDs. One day you'll get your shot Bruce. One day. Louis Murphy led the Raiders receivers with 2 catches for 87 yards and a TD. On the '9ers side, Alex Smith went 9/15 for 113 yards and a TD. David Carr; 7/17 for 54 yards. Frank Gore was finally let loose... for 2 carries. Not one to complain, Gore promptly ripped off a 49 yard run, ploughing defenders with his shoulder along the way and finishing the game with 58 yards. Brain Westbrook also got a look in, taking 2 carries for 17 yards. The heaviest load fell on Anthony Dixon once more, who shall hence forth be known as "The Golden Mule", carrying the ball 21 times for 69 yards and a TD, in addition to 3 catches for a further 15 yards. Defensively for the Raiders it was first round pick Rolando McClain who led the way with 6 tackles and 2 assists. For the 49ers, you guessed it, Patrick Willis; 7 tackles, an assist and a sack. Well, that appears to be it for the day. Only one game remains now in pre-season week 3 as the Steelers travel to the Broncos for some Monday Night Football, but I'll be f***ed if I'm doing the preview right now. Must sleep. Hmm, sleepy, sleepy. Have a great day everyone.

I hate the Panthers....

Dolphins 24 @ Panthers 17 : I hate the Panthers!! Earlier in the week I commented that Ricky Williams is probably a better all round back than Ronnie Brown. I think tonight he took a big step towards proving that. I also mentioned when I was making my pick that there was a good chance the Panthers might get too excited about the reasonable success of their passing game last week. And surprise, surprise, here I am, 0-1 to start the week. God damn it!!! Jake Delhomme threw 42 passes and completed just 19. Why? For the love of god why are they so desperate to give him the ball and let him throw games (literally) away? You have DeAngelo Williams in the backfield. Let me reiterate that. You have DeAngelo Williams in the backfield. He got just 13 carries, which he managed to convert into 122 yards. This guy needs more touches. And yeah, I know they have Steve Smith on the outside. When he gets the ball he's great. Trouble is he only catches around 50-60% of the passes thrown his way. I can't remember the last time Williams muffed a hand off. If DeAngelo was playing somewhere else, say Pittsburgh or Baltimore, the guy would be chasing Chris Johnson for total rushing yardage. Anyway, a good (and important) win for the Dolphins. 0-1 for me this week. I hate the Panthers.... But I'm not finished completely with this game. I wanna give some extra credit: Davone Bess (Dolphins) -- His stats weren't great for the game, but he made some great catches and worked really hard to get open for his young and inexperienced QB. That's great team play. Bess is a trooper. Lex Hilliard (Dolphins) -- Who? Rookie RB had 4 carries for 24 yards. He ran hard on those carries and will likely get the first bite at sharing the workload with Ricky Williams for the rest of the season. Keep an eye out for this one. DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart (Panthers) -- How tempted they must be to run over Jake Delhommes foot in the parking lot. "Oops, sorry dude, the parking brake just slipped off..." I hate the Panthers.

Options to think over in week 11

It's Wednesday night, which can only mean one thing. It's time to make a pick for Thursday Night Football!!!! Dolphins @ Panthers : An interesting match up this week. Both these teams conspire on a regular basis to do me out of a pick. I wouldn't be surprised if this goes all the way to, and through, overtime, just to annoy me. So, two questions. 1) Which Dolphins team will show up this week? 2) Which Panthers team will show up this week? I ask only because it could make all the difference. It's been something like 3 weeks now since Jake Delhomme threw a pick. Steve Smith is starting to make waves again in the passing game. They're getting Muhsin Muhammad involved as well (proving the old guys can still get it done for you). That's great, right until the point they decide that's how to win games. The fact is that their passing attack has come along in leaps and bounds lately because teams are stacking against the run, giving Delhomme easy reads and one on one match ups on the outside. On the flip side we have the Dolphins and their young QB Chad Henne. They too work best by running the rock and forcing teams to stack up against the run, giving Henne much easier coverage reads. It's going to be a battle of nerves on Thursday. Who can stick with the run game the longest? Who can resist the temptation to try and emulate the Patriots with 5 receiver sets? But don't discount Miami's joker card; the Wildcat. Even without Ronnie Brown, the threat of Pat White and Ricky Williams is still big. They role that out for a crucial 4th down or in the Redzone and it could make all the difference. Still, I think the Panthers are playing the better football lately, they've found a groove, and they win this game. Panthers win. And in case I hadn't mentioned it before, I hate them Panthers..... And speaking of Wildcats and Pat White etc, let's talk Option football. So far two teams to my knowledge have had a proper go at it this season; The Miami Dolphins & the Tennessee Titans. Both have found some success (love the Titans running a reverse into an option play against the Bills). But for so long the NFL has quashed the option and people have been adamant that it wouldn't work, so lets look at some of the arguments for and against it: "Defenses are too fast" -- As Judge Judy might say, "Ah Baloney!!". Yeah defenses are typically faster at this level, but hey, so are running backs and wide receivers. This argument is the most common and poorest of them all. I don't care if you've got Usain Bolt at DE. The whole point of an option play is to block everyone except your DE, no matter how fast he is, and then make him chose. Does he go for the QB? Then pitch it. Does he take the pitch man? Then keep it. No matter how quick he is, he has to make a choice. He has to go for either A or B. Whichever one he chooses, you do the opposite. He can be fast as lightning, but he's still gonna end up chasing the play. "I don't want my $10 million a year QB getting hit" -- This one is more troublesome. You pay a guy big money, you can't expose him to so much danger. It's not that he can't take it, but simply a case that if he breaks his hand or twists his ankle running an option play, there goes your offense. The only solution is to roll out the backup, which presents two problems; a) you're indicating that an option play might be about to come up & b) there's a reason this guy is your backup. The big talk for example in Philadelphia has been that when Michael Vick comes onto the field, you're disrupting your normal offense. I think the point has some validity. And how long before defenses start taking away the pitch man (typically a RB) as a matter of course and saying "yes Mr. QB, let's see how well you can run....." "It's too easy to defend" -- Yeah, right. Just like all those power run plays that get busted for big yards and the deep passing plays that are gobbled up because they're so 'easy' to defend. The option is just like most other plays in football. It's an exchange between two players. There are different ways of blocking it. There are different formations it can be run from. There are ways to give the ball to people who wouldn't normally make the exchange. For every counter there is a counter-counter. Paul Johnson has been quite adept in his career as a College coach at finding ways to overcome the anti-option defenses. It's just a matter of application, elbow grease and a bit of creative thinking. "It's just a trick play" -- Only if you practice it just once or twice a week and use it even less. If you commit practice time to it, as the Dolphins have with the Wildcat, and you commit to using it every game for at least a few plays, then it becomes a solid tool in your offense. It becomes no more a trick play than any other play that you run just two or three times a game. And it still has the advantage of being a little unusual. Most NFL offenses run the same 5 or 6 run plays as everyone else. The same plays that everyone has run for 30 or more years. You have the off tackle run, the toss sweep, the dive, the draw, the trap, & the stretch/zone run, to name a few (almost all). The blocking schemes are different and they're run from different formations, but that's pretty much it, the staple run game of most NFL teams. The option is something you don't see an awful lot, thus it has a surprise element to it. Well, that concludes my little option discussion for now, maybe we'll pick it up again another day. I think now might be a good time to share the love and dish out some mid-week extra credit: Chad Ochocinco (Bengals) -- When questioned by reporters about new team mate Larry Johnson, Ochocinco swept aside any talk about the guys off field issues. He emphasised that Johnson is another weapon in an already potent offense and stressed that he was happy with anyone who made the team stronger and could help take them forward. That's a top draw play right there. I'm not sure whether Chad is considered a locker room leader in Cincinnati, but certainly his comments always draw attention and must stick in the back of players minds. This was an excellent way to show support for his new team mate and to help convince the rest of the roster that it's a good move, one that can only help them in the long run. Whether or not it was a good move remains to be seen. Props to Chad, one of the funniest and most talented players on the field today. Tomorrow night I'll round up the Dolphins @ Panthers, and then on Friday it's time to let loose and make all the rest of my Week 11 NFL picks.

Running off my mouth.

Ok so today I'm gonna look at running the football, and why there's a chance it might become en vogue once more. First of all I'd like to clarify that I'm not talking about Miami's 'Wildcat'. The reason is simple. Without a true QB in there they lack any immediate passing threat. Their passing game basically consists of long, drawn out plays involving plenty of play action. And teams are learning quickly that if you can force the edges with your cornerbacks and play two deep safeties, you can shut the Wildcats pass attack down. No, what I'm talking about is true power running. "I" formations and the like, with a fullback in the backfield leading the way. Pulling guards and pounding the rock. Every team in the NFL seems to have packages for this (accept maybe New England and Indianapolis). But few teams do it often and do it properly. Two teams that stand out are the Tennessee Titans and the Carolina Panthers. Last season these two teams went 13-3 and 12-4 respectively for a combined tally of 25-7. They both bombed in the playoffs. And that's actually a point worth noting. During the regular season they both ran the ball. A lot. They leaned on their respective two headed rushing attacks to get the job done for them. Then in the playoffs both teams made a cardinal error. They tried to pass to win. Both teams asked their QB to win it for them and both failed. Miserably. Scary thing is, it's been a running theme again for them this season (no pun intended). Neither team looked at it's mistakes. Neither team has sat down and thought to themselves "Hey, we did great running the ball last year, why are we throwing it this year?". As a consequence, they now have a combined record of 4-10 having played 14 games between them. They've also managed to generate 21 INT's between their starting QB's. The moral of the story? Play to your strengths, and in both cases, that's power running. So what is it about running the football that's so great? Firstly, you don't turn the ball over anywhere near as much. I know some teams (or rather their running backs) have problems with ball retention, but as I mentioned yesterday, a lot of that is down to poor technique. It's easily fixable. To get a look at how it's done properly, turn to Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald and look at his ball control technique. Anytime he feels pressure he wraps that ball up tight. The result is that in 83 games, with a combined tally of 489 touches, he's fumbled the ball just 5 times. Kerry Collins or Jake Delhomme have produced more turnovers individually in just one season. Now consider the question of clock and ball control. You run the football, you get tackled, the clock keeps running. This means that gradually throughout the course of the game you leave less and less time available for a high scoring pass offense like the Patriots or the Saints to put points up on the board against you. They can't score 35 or 40 points because they don't have the time or the sufficient number of possessions to do it. And then we look at 3 and outs. The beauty of running the ball is that even if you're run play gets stuffed close to the line of scrimmage, chances are you can at least get a yard or two. Conversely every incompletion on a pass play gets you nothing, zero, zlich. And that's before we even get started on the number of runs that are stopped for big losses versus yards lost through sacks. Ultimately what it adds up to is more manageable down and distance situations (3rd & 2 as opposed to 3rd & 8). "But what about big plays? What happens when your team gets behind and you need to score?" I hate this supposed argument. So far this season the leagues running backs have combined for 30 runs of 40 or more yards. If it wasn't for Tennessee and Carolina (amongst others) being so pre-occupied with their QB's, the tally would be even more. It just boils my blood to listen to the notion that running the football can't produce explosive plays. Because it does. And if teams ran the ball more against the fabled 'prevent' defenses, that are designed to stop the pass by removing linebackers and introducing more defensive backs, then I'm sure you'd see more big plays. If you want a good example, just go back to the last game ever played in Texas stadium, which was last years Week 16 clash between the Cowboys and the Ravens. The Cowboys gave up rushing touchdowns of 77 and 82 yards on back to back Ravens possessions. And of course, running the football attracts 8 man boxes. It attracts safeties looking to stuff the run. Which creates opportunities for play action passes going deep down the field. Just ask the Saints. The difference maker in their season so far has been points scored on defense and the fact that this year they actually run the football. In fact, they've almost chalked up as many rushing touchdowns as they have passing (14 rushing to 16 passing). And if you still don't believe me, ask Brett Favre and Carson Palmer. With Peterson of the Vikings and Benson of the Bengals producing so well on the ground, both Favre and Palmer have seen a lot more 8 man boxes and cover three looks. And for them, that's bread and butter. They will, and have, picked such coverage apart all season long. Even Jake Delhomme did last year (!!!), as teams respected the Panthers rushing attack so much (and with good reason) that it created one on one matchups for Steve Smith on the outside. Conversely, teams that don't run the ball as much get into trouble far more often than teams that don't pass as much. Look at the Dolphins blowing their huge lead over the Saints a few weeks ago, or the Jets giving the ball away passing against the Bills despite having dominated on the ground all day. The Eagles lost to the Raiders purely because they couldn't, or wouldn't run the ball. They gave the Raiders ample opportunities to break up passes, get sacks and gave them plenty of clock to play with. And we all know what's happened to the Panthers and Titans this year..... So in summary, if you wanna win football games at this level it's best to have a balanced attack. Run the ball to set up the pass. If you're QB isn't that great run it a little more. If your defense isn't great, run it a little more. If you want to hold onto a lead, run it a little more. Gradually we're starting to see teams with strong run games dominate football games. Last year the Steelers and the Ravens, who both exemplified this theory, contested the AFC championship game. The Steelers went on to win the Superbowl. Look for the trend to continue and for more teams to turn to power football as a way to make it to, and through, the post season.

The moral of the story? Play to your strenghts people!!!

I just want to make one thing clear. After all the abuse I've thrown at the Panthers for giving the ball to QB Jake Delhomme, I'd like to point out that Delhomme is not the problem. In fact, Delhomme is a reasonably good QB. I can think of at least 10, probably way more, QB's who have started for NFL teams over the last few years that weren't a patch on him. And that's discounting rookies. The trouble is, Delhomme is not the kind of guy you give the ball to and say "Go win us the game son!" He's the kind of guy you ask to throw a few dropbacks, run some play action with and generally just keep the Defense from zeroing in on your run game. Like Kerry Collins did for the Titans last year. Like Sanchez did for the Jets this last weekend. He's their to compliment the strong running game. The issue is not with Delhomme, it's with the play calling. When you have two running backs of the calibre of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, you don't throw the ball 40+ times a game. You don't even thrwo it 30+ times a game. Let's not forget that last year Williams was third for rushing yardage, 1,515 yds, and if you add Stewarts tally, 836 yds, then they combined for over 2,000 yds. On average Williams carried the ball 5 times less per game than Adrian Peterson and yet racked up a much better average, 5.5yds per game to Peterson's 4.8. The only person with over 100 carries who comes even close to that is Derrick Ward (182 carries, 5.6 per carry). And that's before we get onto Williams's touchdown tally. He led the league last season with 18 rushing TD 's. Tack on another 10 from Jonathan Stewart, who was tied for 8th with Peterson amongst others, and you have 28 TD's generated from the running back position. Turnovers? 2 fumbles. Both by Stewart. (It's worth noting that the league high was 9 by... well, you guessed it. Adrian Peterson). These numbers are solid. What they point to is a one-two punch from the running back position which is unparalleled in the entire NFL. And that's what gets my back up. Why suddenly turn around and abandon what got you into the playoffs last year? Why waste an offensive combo that has the potential to go all the way to the promised land? Last year these two carved Arizona to pieces in the first drive of their playoff game. And then it steadily went down hill as the Panthers tried to lean on the pass, and instead turned the ball over 6 times for the QB position. Now yeah, that reflects badly on Delhomme and it's a game he'd want to forget. But you can't blame the guy if his coaches are determined to thrust the ball into his hands and make him perform miracles. So in summary, it's not Delhomme who should really be worrying about his job. It should be John Fox and Jeff Davidson. That's where the real problems lie. The moral of the story? Play to your strenghts people!!!