Setting Slide or Turnback Pass Protection

Okey dokey. So the other day I was talking about the Colts O-line and how they seem to have become dependent on Peyton Manning to set protections for them. But what the hell does that actually mean? "Setting Protections" or "Adjusting Protections"? It's a good question (why thank you) and one I intend to answer now.

So the long and short of it is that when a pass play gets sent in to the quarterback, part of the play call will tell the linemen and backs how the offense is supposed to account for pass rushers. Sometimes the backs stay in, some times the tight end stays in, sometimes it's just the five guys up front on their own. Now that's all fine and dandy, what with the protection being organised in such way as to compliment the pass being called, but what happens when the defense comes out and gives you a front you don't like the look of?

Say for example you have no running backs staying in to protect, but your looking at the left side and you can see three guys waiting to rush, plus a safety walking down who could potentially be a fourth rusher. That's not good. So what are you going to do? Just roll with it and hope everything turns out ok? I wouldn't recommend that.

It's at this point that a guy like Peyton Manning steps in and changes the protection, directing the offensive line towards the danger, or telling the running back to check a certain player before releasing, or telling the tight end to stay in and help out. Something which Manning has plenty of experience with and Curtis Painter doesn't!

At this point going to the drawing board could prove useful I think. The first diagram we'll look at it is a very basic pass protection set, known as "BOB" or "Big On Big", just to get a feel for the kind of protection a team might start with;

As you can see we have our offensive guards and offensive tackles matched up against the four defensive linemen, hence the "big on big" name. In this case the center takes the Mike linebacker, the running back takes the Will backer, and if needs be the tight end could block the Sam linebacker. Now while this seems on the surface like a very sound protection, very rarely are teams actually gifted with such a perfectly even and tidy defensive front.

This is something the Dolphins found out in their game against the Giants the other week as demonstrated here. One blitz in particular that I diagrammed could come in useful for this discussion, as it has all the features that we need in order to take a good look at changing protections. So here's the blitz as it happened in the game;

What we have here is a blitz that is designed to occupy the middle of the offensive line, setting up the blitzing linebacker to go one on one with the running back. The Mike linebacker actually steps up to show blitz initially before dropping out, and the two defensive tackles attack the inside shoulders of the guards, making sure that all three of the interior offensive linemen get bunched up in the middle, with the B backer hitting the gap that's created between the left guard and left tackle. The right tackle is the only guy without someone to block, but has no realistic chance of getting across to pick up the B backer, meaning the running back has to take him.

Now obviously this is a mismatch in favour of the defense, but what other choice did the offense really have? We've already seen that the interior linemen couldn't ignore the danger posed by the defensive tackles and the Mike linebacker. We know that as athletic as the right tackle might be, he isn't going to cut across the back of the line in time to stop the blitz. So the only possible solution is for the backer to take him... right?

Wrong.

There is one thing that the offense can do in this situation, albeit an option that requires some good coordination between the offensive linemen. When presented with a front like the one above the quarterback - having got a good look at the defense (one of the reasons the shotgun is so popular with pass heavy teams) - can check the protection to a slide or "turnback" protection.

Basically what's going to happen is that the quarterback is going to take advantage of that right tackle who has nothing to do by asking the offensive line not to take the man immediately over them, but instead to take the next defender to the left. This is where the terms "slide" and "turnback" protection come from, because the offensive line is "sliding" across one man, usually executed by taking a step straight backwards off the line and then "turning back" to the left (in this case) with their next step. Let's take a look at the new assignments with another diagram;

As you can now see the right tackle now turns inside and takes the defensive tackle. Knowing that the defensive tackle is now accounted for, the right guard is free to turn inside and take the Mike linebacker if he blitzes. Knowing that the Mike linebacker is now accounted for, the Center is free to turn his attention left to the next defensive tackle. Finally, knowing that the defensive tackle over him is now accounted for, the left guard can turn to the left and take on the blitzing B backer.

With the left side of the defense covered all that remains now is for the running back to go right and fill the gap between the right tackle and tight end. In this case we'd like to keep the tight end in to block the defensive end, but if needs be you could release the tight end and simply have the running back cut down the defensive end, though that's not ideal.

Mainly the running back serves to fill that gap that will open up on the right side, keeping his eyes out for potential delayed blitzes from the safety, or the possibility of the Mike linebacker hooking around over the top. If the defensive end to the right is a major threat and you're not sure how the tight end will cope, you can have the back chip him with his shoulder on the way out into his pass pattern. You can even have the tight end shoot out immediately and strike the defensive end to delay him, before the tight end releases and the back picks up the pieces.

The uses of slide protections are numerous, as you can see. You don't even have to go to the extreme shown above with four players all turning back to the left. If needs be an offense can just slide two players across, for example when the team comes up against a 3-4 defense that puts a defensive end over the offensive tackle and then has an outside backer (especially one known for his pass rushing abilities) outside of him. In this case the offense can slide the tackle and guard on that side, so the guard now takes the defensive end and the tackle takes the outside backer, as demonstrated below;

On the left you can see the back is responsible for the outside backer. If that Will backer is DeMarcus Ware and the running back is Chris Johnson then suffice to say we have a mismatch. A better option is to slide the protection so that your left tackle (who should be your best pass blocker) ends up on Ware, the left guard handles that end and then the back is responsible for picking up the Mike linebacker if he blitzes (an even better option is just not to waste/trust Chris Johnson in pass protection).

Before we wrap this up I just quickly want to give you a flavour for the footwork, just so I don't leave people thinking that the offensive linemen are pulling flat across the line of scrimmage to get to their man;

The key is trying to balance the need to get across and block the man, while also understanding that you need to get some depth, otherwise you end up delivering a glancing blow to the mans side as he flies right past you on his way into the backfield.

Lastly the quarterback needs needs to be aware of two things when his offensive line is sliding; 1) that if only part of the line is sliding then it often results in a gaping hole developing between the sliding men and the rest of the line - don't unquestioningly rely on the running back to protect this hole! 2) The offensive linemen don't always get great initial blocks and so he must be prepared for the risk of rapid of penetration coming from the sliding side and needs to be ready to step laterally and/or up in the pocket away from that pressure;

As you can see the pass rush gets pushed to the left so the quarterback must slide to the right and step up, helping to keep his blockers between him and the pass rush.

Using slide protection is just one of the many great ways for quarterbacks to adjust to what the defense is doing. It allows the quarterback to account for potential overload blitz's to one side or for a defense that's trying to manipulate the numbers game in order to get a favourable match up on the running back. One of the things that separates the best from the rest at the quarterback position is the ability to read the defense, identify the main thrust of the pass rush and then adjust the line to neutralise that threat. It's one of the reasons that Peyton Manning is so valuable to the Colts, and helps us to partially explain why the Colts O-line has struggled so much this season without Manning's experienced eyes and his in-depth, almost automatic knowledge of the playbook.

So keep an eye out next time you see a quarterback calling an audible in the face of an unbalanced looking defense. He might just be switching to a slide protection.

I hope you enjoyed the article and found it useful. If so, don't be greedy with your new knowledge and share a link somewhere or click that facebook button.

2011 Pre-Season Week 3 (part 1)

As we edge closer to the start of the season it's time to take a look at how the Thursday and Friday games from pre-season week 3 panned out. Starting with...

The Panthers @ Bengals. And you know you're looking bad when this Bengals team can beat you. At this juncture it's probably a good time to point out that the Bengals did most of the damage with their starters against the Panthers starters, before anyone starts talking about third stringers.

Though initially it seemed bright enough for the Panthers with Cam Newton running 16 yards for the first score. But that's kind of where the fun ended for Cam, who finished 6/19 for 75 yards. Yes, 6/19. Now I know he's a rookie but that's still pretty bad. What I love most though is that had this been Tim Tebow in his rookie year, people would have been pouring on the hate. But I'm not hearing it now? Funny that. Ok, I'll make it up for all the lost voices; Newton is going to suck this year. And probably every other year.

There you go.

On the other side Andy Dalton started to show some signs of life, throwing 11/17 for 130 yards and a TD. Getting there Andy. Very slowly, but getting there. The real focus for the Bengals though should be on that running game. Cedric Benson and Bernard Scott combined for 22 carries, producing 131 yards and 2 touchdowns. The vitality of this running attack could just be the key to getting Dalton through the season with some semblance of success.

Next was the Browns @ Eagles. Mike Vick took some lumps for the Eagles, but complimented his 10/18 for 98 yards passing with 4 carries for 24 yards and a TD. Vince Young played the "anything you can do, I can do precisely the same" game, by also carrying 4 times for 24 yards and a TD. Running backs Ronnie Brown and Dion Lewis did a lot of the ground work, but LeSean McCoy was the back that got the cream, with 7 catches for a team leading 69 yards receiving.

For the Browns, Colt McCoy looked a little less assured this time around, with 9/18 for 89 yards plus an interception off a poor decision, throwing the ball under pressure to a waiting Asante Samuel who dropped off his outside receiver and snuck underneath the pass to make a great pick. Seneca Wallace clawed back a TD pass for the Browns, before rookie Jarrett Brown hit the field and went 4/4 for 35 yards and a TD. Kid's had quite a solid pre-season so far.

On defense it was all about the Eagles, who accompanied Samuel's interception with five sacks. They're still not quite the Dream Team in Philadelphia, but at least they look a little less shaky now.

Next was the Redskins @ Ravens, and quite a tight game. The Redskins quarterback battle continues with Rex Grossman throwing 8/15 for 112 yards and a TD to John Becks 6/10 for 108 yards and a TD, plus an INT. Overall I'm not sure who will win. Grossman has had the lions share of the playing time so he has more film for Shanahan and son to review, but I think Beck might just sneak it. He just looks a little sharper in general.

The story of the Redskins is still their running game though. Tim Hightower and rookie Roy Helu put up exactly 100 yards between them on 22 carries. Hightower also had a touchdown. Second year wide receiver Terrence Austin also impressed, with 5 carries for 71 yards and a TD. The 'skins defense also looked a bit better, with an interception by DeAngelo Hall and four sacks as a unit, including single sacks for rookies Ryan Kerrigan and Davonte Shannon.

For the Ravens, Joe Flacco kind of looked better in this game. Sort of. A little. Trying to find nice things to say about someone I don't rate all that much. He finished 17/27 for 219 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception (the DeAngelo Hall pick 6). Rookie Tyrod Taylor definitely improved, with 11/18 for 125 yards and a TD. Running back Ray Rice found his groove (13 carries, 72 yards, 1 TD) as did recent acquisition receiver Lee Evans, who caught 3 passes for 60 yards and a TD. Anquan Boldin had 5 catches for 73 yards and a TD as well. Ladarius Webb stood out on the Ravens D, with an interception and a sack.

Packers @ Colts next. The Curtis Painter saga continues. People have been heaping praise on him in the last few hours but I would say hold up a second. He was 11/21 for 171 yards and 2 touchdowns. That's not bad, but let's face it, for Curtis Painter that is practically a career performance. To top it off, 57 of those hallowed yards came when Reggie Wayne was left wide open as corner Sam Shields tried to emulate Asante Samuel's baiting trick from the day before... except Samuel had a safety playing the proper technique over the top and Shields didn't. The result was the Wayne TD. And Painter still sucks.

Aaron Rodgers doesn't though, finishing the game 19/23 for 204 yards and a TD, while looking just as slick as he did in last years Super Bowl. Except for that stupid moustache come beard thing he's sporting now. You're not rock and roll Aaron. AC/DC will not be calling anytime soon. "Rookie" Graham Harrell (he's 26 and played in the pre-season last year) then came in and finished the game 12/21 for 85 yards, an interception, but also a touchdown with just 35 seconds left on the clock, followed by a two point conversion.

The Packers then caught the Colts napping with an onside kick, demonstrating the lack of game management from Colts Head Coach Jim Caldwell that hurt his team at times last year.

Both defenses did well. The Packers had 4 sacks, one by Clay Matthews and the other three coming from rookies. The Colts D produced 5, including two for Dwight Freeney and one for former Bear Tommie Harris. This is definitely a positive sign, given that in the Peyton Manning era the defense has often let down the rest of the team.

Finally for today we have the Rams @ Chiefs. Quarterback Sam Bradford looked ok for the Rams, throwing 9/16 for 95 yards and 2 touchdowns, but also a dangerous interception while backed up near his own goal line, as he failed to see the grossly under rated linebacker Derrick Johnson lurking in underneath coverage. Johnson also had a sack. Rams back up A.J. Feely was 8/13 for 65 yards and an interception.

The Rams rushing attack did much better though. Steven Jackson turned 15 carries into 72 yards while Cadillac Williams carried 12 times for 53 yards. Rookie Tight End Lance Kendricks has been making me look good for calling him better than Kyle Rudolph and he continued that theme against the Chiefs with 2 catches for 26 yards and a touchdown. On defense, rookie defensive end Robert Quinn restored my rookie predicting karma to zero, by defying my criticism of him and having a sack/fumble, plus blocking a field goal.

But then on the Chiefs side Ricky Stanzi tried to get me back on the plus side for this game, finally pulling his finger out of his arse to throw 8/14 for 121 yards and a lovely touchdown pass, with no interceptions. Keep it up. Matt Cassel meanwhile wallowed in his own personal well of mediocrity, with 6/13 for 59 yards. Tip; when you make Tyler Palko look good (7/12, 92 yards) then you're doing something very wrong.

That's it for today. If you think I'm doing all of Saturdays games in one marathon chunk tomorrow then you've got another thing coming. I'll likely be back Monday night (technically Tuesday morning here). Till then, have a good weekend, enjoy the football and don't forget to hit the Facebook-like-button-thingy at the bottom.

Do it.

AFC South 2011 prospects

Time to take a look at the (potential) future for the AFC South in the coming season. Starting with; Houston Texans: God almighty, you have to feel sorry for Texans fans. They cheer when their team manages a winning season. If they make the playoffs in 2011 there will be a hell of a party in Houston, regardless of whether they make it any further. As ever, the Texans 2010 problems were the same problems they had the year before; all offense and no defense. But it's a testimony to the Texans overall talent level that I look at their free agent list and cant help but think to myself; who? WR Jacoby Jones and FB Vontae Leach naturally ring a bell. And I'm sure the Texans would be gutted if they lost QB Matt Leinart (positively crying). Other than that though, I'm lost. Maybe I just need to pay more attention to the Texans in future. Perhaps I could start by paying attention to their draft. The Texans pick at number 11 overall and they really, really, badly, truly, deeply need to go defense. Looking at the state of their roster, I imagine either D-line or corner will be their priority. It depends who falls to them at 11. There is a chance, likely depending a lot on what my 49ers do at number 7, that either Patrick Peterson or Prince Amukamara could fall that low. If so, I'd imagine that the Texans would pounce. Alternatively there is a chance that someone like Nick Fairley could drop, amidst fears he might have been a one season wonder. That wouldn't be a bad shout either for the Texans. 2011 then should be the year of the defense in Texas. Well, at least the Houston part of it. They (read: HC Gary Kubiak) simply cannot endure another season where the offense does all the work and the defense contributes nothing. As we saw with the Saints in '09, a team with a very strong offense often needs just a little shove on defense to propel itself to success. The ability of the Texans to recruit well on the D and the success of new D-coordinator Wade Phillips (a very strong defensive mind) will decide the Texans fate. Indianapolis Colts: They scraped through the gate to win the AFC South. Then they shit out in the playoffs. Not quite what you expect from the Colts (apart from the shitting out in the playoffs bit). To use a "Football Speak" phrase, could the dreaded "Window" be closing on the Colts? Well, if we're going to talk free agency for the Colts then we have to talk about Monsieur Manning. Who, technically speaking, has been Franchised. Now that sounds great in principle, because nobody ever parts with picks for a franchise tagged player. But this is Peyton Manning. Peyton. Manning. Don't tell me you haven't got a sneaking suspicion as well that Dan Snyder is waiting for the labor situation to resolve itself so he can break the bank to bring Peyton to Washington. I'm not saying it's a great move or that he'll even do it. But this is Dan Snyder we're talking about. He must have at least floated the idea in a meeting with his senior staff. Anyway, Manning aside, who else is on the list? RB's Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai to start. Not sure if Bill Polian has many designs to hold onto Addai. Addai is a good running back who is under used for obvious reasons, and maybe with that in mind the Colts will lean on Donald Brown? It wouldn't surprise me, let's put it that way. Kicker Adam Vinatieri is up for grabs, which could be an interesting departure. LB Clint Session is up, as it Safety Melvin Bullitt. For those that didn't know, Bob Sanders is already gone, potentially off to the green pastures of San Diego (?). Apparently the two sides have agreed a deal in private but there is some legal buff between the league and the Chargers holding things up. On to the draft and the Colts pick 22nd overall. Offensive line grabs my attention, specifically interior linemen. Rodney Hudson anyone? Linebacker would be another good shout. There are rumours in the air that Da'Quan Bowers may be slipping down some draft boards and could fall far enough for Indy to take him. In 2011 then the Colts are in relatively good shape. They had a bit of a freak year in 2010 and an early loss to the Texans surprised many, until the Texans ultimately crashed and burned. The Jaguars gave Manning and co. a run for their money, but even then the Colts pulled through. On balance it would appear 2011 could be the Colts year once more. How far they go after taking the South crown is a matter for debate though. Jacksonville Jaguars: As previously mentioned, the Jags had a pretty good year in 2010. Well, 8-8 is literally an average year, but for the Jaguars that's impressive. That tells you everything you need to know about this team. On the bright side, the Jaguars might come out of free agency pretty well. Safety Sean Considine is on the block (which might not be all that bad) along with LB's Justin Durant and Kirk Morrison, WR Mike Sims-Walker and QB Trent Edwards. All of those would be missed, with Sims-Walker the priority for resigning. In the draft the Jaguars now pick at 16, which is practically unheard of territory for them of late. Priorities are Wide Receiver, Defensive Back and Linebacker. There are plenty of interesting names that will fall that low so the Jaguars should have a pleasant amount of choice. If it was me, I'd be looking at receiver first, but obviously it depends who is on the board. It might be that the Jags can load up in free agency (there are some good, under rated names out there; Jacoby Jones, James Jones, etc). As for 2011 then? Don't get too excited Jaguars fans. Not depressed. Just not excited. There is still a long way to go but the promising signs are there. If David Garrard doesn't pan out I'd like to see Luke McCown get his shot. I thought he showed promise in the 2010 pre-season. Another year in this system under his belt might be all he needs to supplant the inconsistent Garrard. And let's have lashings of Maurice Jones-Drew and Rashad Jennings please. Pretty please. With cherries on. Tennessee Titans: Every division needs it's laughing stock and in the AFC South that role has now been assumed by the Titans. The Vince Young saga. Chris Johnson not living up to the (self-generated) hype in his second year. The debacle involving the departure of Jeff Fisher. Owner Bud Adams could be entering his "Al Davis" stage. New Head Coach Mike Munchak has his work cut out for him. In free agency this year he will lose (potentially); DE Jason Babin, QB Kerry Collins, DT Marques Douglas, DE Jacob Ford, WR Randy Moss and TE Bo Scaife among others. Now to the best of my knowledge that leaves the Titans in the capable hands of either Rusty Smith or Brett Ratliff at QB. Nice. Handy then that the Titans will be picking at number 8 overall in the draft. They need some talent to get them back on track and QB might just be the perfect place to start. You already know the list of names. It would be truly hilarious though if Bud Adams picks Cam Newton, presuming Newton is still there. If not QB, then wide receiver, offensive tackle or linebacker are all priorities. Linebacker is a particular point of weakness in both strength and depth, and unless they make some moves in free agency they could end up in serious trouble come Week 1. So how do the Titans stack up overall in 2011? I just can't see it being anything other than another season of struggling. The QB situation alone promises to be a nightmare to resolve. The defense needs to stay a lot healthier than it was in 2010, and they need to perform some damage control in certain areas. By the end of the year, Adams might be begging Jeff Fisher to come back.

Wildcard Weekend (part 2)

New Orleans Saints 36 @ Seattle Seahawks 41 Ho-ly-sh... you get the idea. I said it. I didn't think they'd do it but the Seahawks just came out, let it all go and it paid off big time. They dug into their bag of tricks and came out with some unusual stuff. Fake screens, hook-and-spin routes etc, with a healthy dose of shocking defense by the Saints. But the real point that should be made, the real winner here, was the determination and sheer effort by the Seahawks players. We often talk about these kind of things on blogs, in books and on TV. You see hokey films about pulling together and going all out for one another, but nobody ever seems to put the words into practice. You see people try, then give up. Well the Seahawks didn't. They gave us a shining example of mental strength pushing the body to new levels and how teamwork & hustle can truly make a big difference in football. Marshawn Lynch's TD run was a great demonstration of that as QB Matt Hasselbeck was among those Seahawks racing down the field to help their team mate get the score. We can't forget completely about the losers though. We have to take our collective hats off I think (gentlemen, if you please) to the New Orleans Saints offense. Without his starting running backs Drew Brees was forced to throw 39/60 (sixty!!) for 404 yards and 2 TD's with no interceptions. It was a huge effort and let's not overlook the fact that traditionally speaking, when you score 36 points, you have a tendency to win a lot of games. So I wouldn't begrudge the Saints offense for shooting some killer looks at the defense who were about as stout, rugged and effective as a drill bit made from chocolate. The tackling, the coverage, the whole works. It was just all around poor defense. I dunno, maybe defensive coordinator Greg Williams was distracted this week with potential job offers on the table, but man, that defense just wasn't the same as it was last year. They looked like the 2008 group that stunk it up on a regular basis. So now the Seahawks progress to the divisional round. Up next? If Green Bay wins the other NFC Wildcard game on Sunday, then the Seahawks head to Chicago. If the Eagles win, the Seahawks have a date with Atlanta. In the meantime the Seahawks and their fans have time to boogey: New York Jets 17 @ Indianapolis Colts 16 Some how, some way, the Jets did it. Mark Sanchez was awful. 18/31 for 189 yards and an INT. He was throwing loose passes all over the field and was lucky not to get picked off more than just the once. But fate has a funny way of twisting at this time of year. The Colts ran the ball. And kept running it. I know that I've often suggested that the Colts might benefit from running a little more, but this isn't quite what I had in mind. Actually, scrap that. This is nothing like what I had in mind. 27 runs? By the colts? And Manning threw just 18/26? What? The most mind boggling for me was the Colts approach on third down. When I think of predominantly pass first teams like the Colts running the ball, I'm thinking first and second down. Maybe the occasional sneaky run on third down. But to go for a near all out attack on third down using the run? No, surely not. It doesn't matter if I had one yard to go, two, three, four, or eight, whatever, I would be trusting that down and our offenses continued possession of the ball to Peyton Manning. I certainly wouldn't be overly keen to be handing the ball off to Dominic Rhodes. Joseph Addai I can live with, but I'd much rather see Addai in pass protection or running a route on 3rd down, with my golden boy surveying the field and doing his thing. Not so the Jets, who apparently got sick and tired of Sanchez throwing the ball to invisible receivers and thus decided to break out their rushing attack for a change. You remember right, that same rushing attack that allowed them to somewhat protect Sanchez last season and helped them to get to the AFC Championship game? Yeah that one. LaDanian Tomlinson. That's all I'm saying. Ok, I'll say a little more. 16 carries, 82 yards, 2 TD's. The guy looks fresh and ready to roll in these playoffs. Just when everyone has smacked Tomlinson down once more, along come the Jets to remind everyone that essentially the offensive line dictates a big part of how many yards a running back gets. Thus guys like Tomlinson have little to fear. He still has the burst to hit a hole and fall forwards for yards, possibly for another 2 or 3 years providing there is no major upheaval in the Jets O-line. Now finally I'd like to end on a complaint, or two, because God knows I love me a moan. The first issue in question is the "roughing the kicker" called against the Colts. I appreciate that under the letter of the law, that was a penalty. I'm not disputing that. But what I will dispute is that in the offseason that rule needs to be changed. If that degree of contact is what constitutes "roughing" in the modern world, then for the last 10 years or so, anytime I've ever got off a bus during the rush hour I've committed numerous fouls for "roughing". In my opinion, the Colts rusher was making an active attempt to pull up at the end and avoid any serious, hard hitting collision with the kicker. Or to put it another way, he could have just drilled the guys standing leg and left him in a crippled heap, but he didn't. Contact like this, while only a very small part of the game, helps to enforce the wider image that the NFL is turning "soft". If the league is going to continue to be as successful as it has been, it needs to hold onto the fans it has and that means reversing this trend of perceived or actual "softness" in the game. The second thing I want to bitch about is the Colts calling a timeout with 29 seconds left as the Jets were driving for the winning field goal. My question is simply; why? On the sidelines, Manning looked pissed off and I can sympathise with that. It set up a pass by Sanchez to Edwards on the next play, which set the Jets up for a 32-yard field goal to win the game. It just blows the mind sometimes. Do the Colts not have a plan for this? Why do team keep making these critical errors in time management, week after damn week? Given the huge salaries involved, as an owner I would be chewing glass right about now, wondering what in the hell I was forking out the big bucks for given that I could probably hire a high school coach to come in and manage the clock better than that, at far less expense. But enough complaining, at least for now. As the number six seed, the Jets will now go on to play Tom Brady and the Patriots. Maybe Rex was right? Maybe he does have a Super Bowl winning team at hand. I'll wait and see how Sanchez gets on first if that's ok everyone. And onto the preview of Sunday's games. Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs (1:00pm ET, CBS) (6:00pm GMT, Sky Sports 2) The Ravens at the Chiefs, as running game clashes with running game. What intrigues me, because I'm a sad git who gets intrigued by otherwise uninteresting things, is the style clash that will take place between the three main runners on Sunday. First we have Jamaal Charles of the Chiefs. Charles is all about the speed. In the open field he can light teams up just as easily as Chris Johnson of the Titans. Typically with Charles you'll see the Chiefs run a "stretch" style play, where the offensive line all moves in one direction at the snap, looking to get the jump on their respective D-linemen and seal them inside using what we call a "reach" block. The idea is to cutoff the defense, pin them inside and then let Charles go flying around the outside and up the field with his speed. Thomas Jones of the Chiefs is very different. Coming from the Jets last year and, if we're honest, getting a little long in the tooth right now, Jones is more of you inside style rusher. Typically you'll see the Chiefs start off moving in one direction, similar to the stretch play above, but with a tight end and/or a fullback coming back against the flow to help kick out defenders on the backside and create a void up the middle for Jones, where he can use his power, toughness and, let's face it, big brass balls to drive right through the heart of the defense and off to pay dirt. My favourite though is Ray Rice of the Ravens. Why? Because (shut up, I know) normally with running backs, their success is tied very closely to their offensive line. Or to put it another way, unless you happen by chance to be a ghost it's physically impossible to run through a wall of 300 pound offensive and defensive linemen standing shoulder to shoulder. This is the major problem that Chris Johnson has had in Tennessee this year. Every time they call a run the Titans O-line seems to get wadded up in a bunch, which is a win for the defense. With no gaps between the linemen, it makes it very easy for the linebackers to read the play. All they have to do is flow towards the gaps at the two ends of the bunch and boom, dead play. Coincidentally the Ravens D happens to be quite good at doing just that. But the thing with Ray Rice is, he seems to possess an extraordinary vision on such plays for finding the tiny little cracks in the defense. His lateral quickness combined with that vision allows Rice to to squirm through creases that other running backs can't, if they even see them in first place. Credit to Rice for that. But the question still lingers, who might win such a battle? Well if I'm honest, the Ravens appear have the advantage. We know both teams can run the ball and that both teams struggle a little when throwing, but the Ravens D gives them the clear edge. That's not to say that the Chiefs have a weak defense, but they're simply not the Ravens. They can both bring pressure on the quarterback and both teams have playmakers in the back end, but critically in what could prove to be a ground and pound game, the Ravens run defense has the edge. The Ravens finished the regular season as the number 5 defense against the run. The Chiefs came in at number 14. So if it turns out to be a grind 'em down style field position battle, you probably have to give Baltimore the advantage. There is hope however for the Chiefs. An early score could tempt the Ravens into throwing a little more and as we've seen this season they're pass protection still leaves something to be desired. That gives Tamba Hali the open shot he needs to get in and cause some havoc. Hali topped the AFC for sacks in the regular season with 14.5 (only DeMarcus Ware finished ahead of him in the NFC, with 15.5). Add to that the hidden effect of numerous QB hits and pressures which go largely unnoticed on the stat sheets (someone at one of the big networks needs to fix this), and you have a recipe for forcing Joe Flacco into some bad throws. The Chiefs have the people in the secondary to make Flacco pay, and so the Chiefs could be set up to pull off the next huge upset in the 2010 season Wildcard weekend. We'll see. The winner has a date lined up with the Steelers... Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles (4:30pm ET, FOX) (9:30pm GMT, Sky Sports 2) The Packers and the Eagles clash in what bizarrely many people are touting as the true NFC Championship game. I think the Falcons and Bears might have something to say about that (and the Seahawks I guess). Still though, it is a hell of a clash to be having in the wildcard weekend. Michael Vick, the NFL's golden ticket for redemption (and advertising revenues) up against Aaron Rodgers, the successor to Brett Favre. So how good are these teams? The Eagles destroyed the Redskins in a style that you would expect of a great team. They also produced the miracle at the New Meadowlands, coming back from almost certain defeat at the hands of what was a very strong Giants team (10-6 with one of the better defenses out there) to storm to victory. The Packers caliber is much more subtle. Consider that the Patriots are widely touted as the best team in the NFL right now, and that the Packers managed to run their game against the Patriots very close, all without the aid of starting QB Aaron Rodgers. 'The Pack' are also one of those rare teams that has great strength on both sides of the ball. They have a great offense that is more than capable of getting into a shootout with any team in the league. But on defense they are also pretty sound. The development of corners Tramon Williams and Sam Shields has had a huge impact for them. When you then consider that their front seven is up there among the best, easily at home alongside the Ravens and the Steelers, and you have a seriously solid all around team. Not quite the same story in Philadelphia. The Eagles have Mike Vick. They have DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy and James Harrison (don't knock the guy). But on defense it begins to get a little flimsy. While Trent Cole, Juqua Parker and Darryl Tapp form the backbone of a formidable pass rush, the Eagles have still been found wanting on the back end this season, and their rush defense has at times been very poor. All things considered I think the Packers have the edge going into this game, but as we've seen this season, not least in this wildcard weekend, anything is possible on any given Sunday. Could the X factor that is Michael Vick tip the balance? Will Aaron Rodgers simply stroll onto the field and tear apart the Eagles secondary? Maybe DeSean Jackson will have a few big run backs in the kicking game? Guess we'll all just have to grab a beer (Amaretto for me please), sit back, relax and tune in to what is proving to be one of the most intriguing seasons in recent memory. I'll be back tomorrow for a full recap.

Wildcard Weekend (part 1)

So now we know where three teams will be headed in 2011. The Titans have confirmed Jeff Fisher will be their coach for at least another year. The Dolphins have signed Tony Sparano through 2013. Not, however, before arranging a meeting with Eric Mangini to come on board as a "consultant", cancelling a press conference along the way that would have been used to confirm Sparano as the 2011 coach of the Dolphins. The meeting with Mangini didn't go ahead in the end and Sparano has been confirmed, but the damage to the reputation of both the coach and owner has been done. Dolphins owner Stephen Ross now looks like a jackass. And he's pulled Sparano down with him, effectively sending the message to the players that "we couldn't get the guy we wanted and we couldn't find anyone else who would take the role, so we're bringing back Sparano for you. Enjoy." Of course the guy they "wanted" was Jim Harbaugh, who will now be coaching the 49ers for 2011. Harbaugh's first order of business? Quarterback. With both Alex and Troy Smith up for free agency, that leaves David Carr as the only guy signed for 2011. With Harbaughs college QB Andrew Luck staying on for another year, that means the 49ers might be looking for a trade. One option is Josh Johnson of the Buccaneers, who Harbaugh has worked with previously. I really like Johnson so you won't hear any complaints from me. The other possibility, outside of the draft of course, is a free agent. Topping that list might be Donovan McNabb who is expected to be released by the Redskins. Please Jim; don't. McNabb has done well, but he's not exactly Mr. Consistent and seems to have a real problem dealing with pressure. Please, let's just go somewhere else, with a young guy who you can mold. Please. Just before we have a look at this Saturday's wild card games, just time to point you in the direction of the latest work from NFL.com's Albert Breer. Good stuff. Now, games, which after all is what football is all about. New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks (4:30PM ET, NBC) The stage is set for an epic disappointment. Quite whose, we don't yet know. It could be the Seahawks, their hopes raised after stumbling to victory over the Rams. On the back of Mike Williams and a semi-resurgent Marshawn Lynch, the Seahawks have become the first 7-9 division champion, and the first team outside of a strike shortened season to make the playoffs with a losing record. It all looks so hopeful. It's a big achievement, especially after such miserable seasons as the Seahawks have endured in recent years (as a 49er fan I can only say one thing. Good). Maybe this is their time to shine again? Or maybe it's their time to get their dreams crushed, as the Saints roll into town and flatten their helpless and hapless opponents in a demonstration of such sheer dominance and offensive power that the French nation promptly surrender to Coach Payton before he turns on them (a bit of good ol' fashion British light hearted humour/Xenophobia/racism there). Conversely, it could be the Saints in for a shock. God knows it would be a shock to all of us if Seattle wins, but they have a few things in their favour. Last year the Saints finished the regular season with a +11 turnover differential. This year the Saints finished at -6. That's not helped by the loss of running backs Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory. The expectation now is that with the loss of his run game, Drew Brees will have to throw even more, possibly close to 50 times in this game. With Brees's recent problems with interceptions, that could be a potential gold mine waiting to be tapped for Seattle. Then we have the crowd. The noise in Qwest Field is pretty legendary, and in a playoff game there is likely to be little respite for the Saints. That throws up issues of false starts at critical moments and a breakdown of communication, especially during audibles. The Saints are used to very loud stadiums, but not when their offense is on the field. Finally; just the sheer surprise factor of the Seahawks. They have nothing to lose and everything to gain, the exact opposite of the defending champion Saints. If the Saints are too cocky it could be their downfall. Too conservative and the same applies. Meanwhile the Seahawks can dig deep into the playbook on both sides of the ball and just go all out for the win. If they crash and burn, who cares? If Seattle gets hammered 45-0 I wont batter an eye lid (just laugh. Heartily). On paper I would expect the Saints to do just that. It's not like Seahawks fans realistically expect their team to beat the Saints. And if they lose by just 3 points? That's still a loss, so all that conservative play just went out of the window for nothing. If the Seahawks just come out, have fun and let it all hang loose, who knows? I should also probably take the time right now to point out that I wont be doing picks this week, or for the rest of the season (possibly not even for the whole of next season). My regular season record was just over .500, my playoff record from last year was terrible (including 0-7 from the Divisional round onwards if I remember rightly) and just generally I find it much more enjoyable watching games when I'm not secretly cheering on one side or the other because I picked them. And that's before we get onto the issue of teams not doing as their told (Texans, Panthers, Titans etc. Hate those guys). I doubt it'll be a great loss to the world. New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts (8:00PM ET, NBC) Surprise, surprise, Rex Ryan has been writing checks with his mouth that his team potentially wont be able to cash. The way to the Super Bowl would see the Jets likely take on Peyton Manning, arguably the best QB in the league today, followed by Tom Brady, arguably the best QB in the league today, and then possibly followed by Ben Roethlisberger, arguably the best QB in the league today. That's a hell of a lot of good quarterbacks to be facing, even for the Jets defense. While they have the potential to be very solid, they've also had their fair share of struggles this season, including against the Browns, a team not noted for the wild success of its offense. Let us not forget also that all of these teams must be overcome with Mark Sanchez at the helm for the Jets offense. Now just to recap, that means Mark Sanchez versus (potentially); -- The Colts defense, which was already good and has only got better lately. The Colts D gave up the highest percentage of passes completed in the regular season, but were in the top half of the table for least passing yards allowed. This is also a defense that gave up less touchdowns than the Jets. -- The Patriots defense, which gave up one more TD than the Jets D (25 to 24), but recorded over double the number of interceptions (25 to 12). -- The Steelers defense, which; conceded the second least yards per game (behind the Chargers), the least total points (232 compared to the Jets 304), the least points per game (14.5), conceded the second least (tied) percentage of 3rd down conversions (32%), recorded the most sacks (48), gave up less touchdowns (15) than it had interceptions (21), and gave up the fewest rushing yards (1,004) which was about 437 yards better than the second placed team (Chicago). In other words, it's going to be bloody hard for the Jets to make a dent in a very strong playoff group. The added pressure of Rex Ryan telling the world that he doesn't think Brady works as hard as Manning or can cope as well without his coaches as Manning, only helps to set up a great (and embarrassing) down fall in the divisional round. That's providing of course that they can topple the Colts. That would be the Indianapolis Colts who struggled at times, especially in the middle of the season, but otherwise did very well for themselves. Despite the hiccups, the Colts offense still finished with the 4th most points in the regular season and picked up more first downs per game than any other team. In particular Manning and the Colts love games like this. Racking up the points on offense entices the opposing side into a shoot out. That's where Freeney and Mathis come in. If the back end can hold up long enough (helped dramatically by playing less experienced QB's like Sanchez) that opens the door for a furious pass rush. When your rushing attack stinks, as the Jets has lately, that only increases your appearance of one dimensionality further. The Jets have fought and battled at times and somehow came through with the record that they did. If they want to go any further, it's going to take a tremendous effort. All I know is it's going to be a hell of a lot of fun to watch! Tomorrow I'll be back to recap the Saturday action and to look forward to Sunday's game.

Shock and Awe (err, I think I've used that title before?)

I'll be back later today to round up Sunday's action, but for now I just have to sleep and recover from the shock of watching the Colts. I don't know who that team in the the blue was, but they looked chronic. Absolutely chronic and hapless and a variety of other adjectives that you would never use to describe the Colts. Have a great day everyone.

"Pick" of the week (chortle, chortle)

My eye lids are hanging, barely open. Just enough time then to point you in the direction of this article on Colts.com. For those who lack the time or the inclination to read it, it is basically an article about the Colts, saying that the leagues renewed offense on defense will not affect them as they always "abide by the rules". If that is the case, then someone needs to show Coach Caldwell and Peyton Manning the section covering the use of illegal "pick" plays. Because there is no worse, repeat offender on this issue than the Colts. Have a great day everyone.

4th and 2

It seems everyone else on the planet has voiced their opinion in the argument over whether Bill Belichick made the right choice going for it on that now infamous 4th down on Sunday Night, so I might as well have a crack to. First of all, I don't want to hear about statistics or percentages. All too often I think people try and break down the game of football into percentages and chances of xyz happening, that it's all about mathematics, without realising that their are human beings involved (and not to mention the weather). Football is nothing like flipping a coin or spinning a roulette wheel. There are a ton of variables to consider. Take for example the stat that I keep seeing people batting around. Every football mathematician (for want of a better word) keeps repeating the same percentage: that the Pats had a 65% shot of making it on first down. Really? Because looking at the numbers, prior to this 4th down attempt the Pats had completed just 5 of 10 on 4th down attempts. Now, I'm no expert on numbers, but I'm pretty bloody sure that equals 50%, not 65%. And that's for all fourth downs, even ones that were just inches. What are their stats at going 4th and 2? And then I keep hearing about the percentage chances of stopping the Colts etc and I cant help but think "hang on a second, what about the Colts chances of stopping the Pats on 4th"? Are we to assume that it only matters how successful the Pats have been in the past at getting the first down? Don't certain defenses have better chances of stopping teams than others? Or are you really going to sit there and argue that the Cleveland Browns are just as good at making stops on 4th down as the Pittsburgh Steelers? (In case you're wondering the Steelers now have an 80% success rate against 4th down attempts, while the Browns have just a 46% success rate, tied with the Colts who've now made 5 stops on 11 attempts). But I digress. First of all, something very important must be understood about this decision. If that choice had been made by say, Norv Turner or Tom Cable, they would probably be unemployed right now. It's Belichick though, which is the only reason so many people are sticking up for him. If it was Mangini, everyone in the world would be ridiculing him (and rightly so). Secondly, why, for the love of god, didn't the Pats run the ball on the third down? I know the old argument, that Welker is one of their best players etc and you think he can do it blah, blah. But it was 2 yards. Two. Give the ball to Kevin Faulk. You're a pass first team that everyone knows will try and throw it. So don't. Line up with 4 guys wide and run the ball two measly yards for the win. If you don't get it, it doesn't matter. You let the clock run to the two minute warning. Now anything that happens afterwards is reviewable from the booth. For example, if you now tried to throw for the 4th down and the refs incorrectly marked the spot...... Third, why call out your punt team, then recall them, then burn a timeout. If you're gonna punt, punt. If you're gonna go for it, go for it. If you're not sure, punt. Clock management here was terrible, and that's really unlike the Pats. And don't give me any of that "they weren't sure what play to go with" nonsense. Belichick is a student of the Bill Walsh method of coaching. He and his team will have practiced 4th and 2 before. He and his team would know exactly what play they were gonna run (your very best short yardage play). It was just poor coaching. Fourth, I found a beautiful analogy while I was reading comments that people had made about this very topic on another site. I present it here in full for you: "State of mind plays a role. If I bet you $100 that you couldn’t throw an egg 12″ in the air and catch it, would you take the bet? What if the bet was $10 million? What if you lost, your arm would be amputated? Or you were executed? In all scenarios, it’s throwing an egg 12″ in the air and catching it. Do you still think the success rates are the same?" In short, do you think Faulk bobbling the ball would have happened if it had been on the Colts 29 yard line and not the Pats? Fifth and finally, let's look at what happens if you fail to make it versus punting the ball. By all estimations, if the Pats punt the Colts would have started on about their own 30, there or there abouts. Obviously Peyton Manning is going to have a much easier time scoring from 29 yards than from 70. But there are two factors we really need to consider that make the choice of going for it on 4th down a bad move: 1) You've basically just said to your D, "Punt? Are you guys f***ing kidding me?! I'd rather ask my offense to try and go for it on 4th and lose the game if we fail, than trust you guys to stop Manning going 70 yards!" 2) Yes Manning put together two drives in the 70+ range in that quarter, but he also threw a pick in between those two drives. Manning is good, but with only around two minutes left in the half he can't use the run game at any point, he really has to pass to win. And with Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon dropping balls all over the shop, that's a chance I'd be willing to take. Let's not forget that the Colts had been far from stellar in this game. The only reason they scored on their previous drive was really the terrible pass interference call that put them in range. Yeah I know Manning is good, but on this day I think the Pats would have made the stop. I think Belichick made a horrible choice. And I think no amount of number crunching can take that away. Even if he'd made it, I still would have put it down as a bad choice. Ultimately it cost the Patriots the game, and could come back to haunt them in January.

Week 7 picks

Right, it's Friday night, which means prediction time. My first set of predictions to actually be heard by the world (or maybe even just one random passer by). No time to waste, let's get down to it: Green Bay @ Cleveland -- I hear D'Qwell Jackson has been placed on injured reserve. That's pretty much it then for Cleveland. Short of some kind of miracle involving Josh Cribbs in the return game and Jamal Lewis on the ground, it's gonna be Green Bay all the way. Despite questions over the Packers run game, when you look at their offense it really does have the makings of something special. Their receivers, in terms of technique, catching and Yards After the Catch (Y.A.C) are among the best in the league. The only trouble they might have is separating the two Rogers; Their QB Aaron Rogers from the Browns Nose Tackle Shaun. I'm backing the Packers. San Francisco @ Houston -- My beloved 49'ers travel to Houston this week. And get mauled. The final unveiling of Michael Crabtree will do little to ease the pain. The 9'ers were trounced by Atlanta before spending last week on a bye. This week they come back and face a team on the up. Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels, Steve Slaton. Four names which will scare the crap out of most D's. Frank Gore. The only name that might really trouble Houston. This one might even turn into a rout. Until San Francisco can learn how to generate some offense, they will always struggle. Note: Michael Crabtree does not constitute generating offense. I'm backing Houston. Damn. San Diego @ Kansas City -- Last year this was a no brainer. This year.... who knows? The vultures are already circling over Norv Turner and The Chargers. Everyone is waiting for Merriman or Tomlinson (who I just found out is ill) to make a mistake so they can swoop in and tear them to shreds. Conversely, everyone in Kansas is getting ready for a big run that will lead Kansas to a Wildcard spot. I think both groups will disappoint and let's be clear on this. Last week the Chiefs beat the Redskins. The REDSKINS. And even then it was a battle of the field goals. Everyone seems to be surprised that Kansas hasn't exploded in some kind of offensive orgy since Todd Haley and Matt Cassel showed up. But truth be told, Haley doesn't have Warner, Fitzgerald and Boldin this season. And Cassel doesn't have Moss or Welker. On top of that, the Chiefs don't have Tony Gonzalez this season either. On the other side, the Chargers do still have Phillip Rivers, Darren Sproles, Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates (& L.T. if he's recovered). They also still have Merriman on D. Ignore him at your peril Kansas, I have a feeling he's looking to shut a few mouths with a big game. I take San Diego for this one. Indianapolis @ St. Louis -- Jesus, this could end up like World War 1; a massacre. The undefeated Colts coming fresh off a bye week against the winless, hopeless, Rams. Manning is simply on fire. He's making Garcon and Collie look like Jerry Rice and Michael Irvin. Steven Jackson of the Rams is ranked 4th among all NFL rushers this season..... and still hasn't found the endzone. Oh dear. Colts, all the way. New England @ Tampa (@ London) -- It's that time again as the International series rolls into Wembley stadium. Last year I was there to watch the Saints and Chargers shoot it out. This year I wont be taking the 50 odd mile trip south west, to watch New England blow the Tampa Bay Buccaneers back to Davey Jones's locker. An believe me, they will. I admire Tampa for trying to build a young(ish) team. Josh Johnson has potential with his mobility and their receiving corp continue to pull amazing catches out of the bag each week. But Brady & Co. have a point to prove still, and they'll doubtless take this opportunity to make it. The big question lingering over this game is why is it even happening. Anyone that believes for a second that this game is about anything other than money is deluded. And while I appreciated the chance to see my first NFL game live in the flesh, I also think it is a waste of time. The teams hate it, and the NFL would sell more shirts if it simply made more deals with the free-to-air channels here in the UK. Anyway, I say New England makes the fouding fathers trip in reverse successfully. Minnesota @ Pittsburgh -- Brett Favre has a photo in his holiday album from when he visited Egypt. If you look carefully in the background, you can just about see the pyramids of Giza being built. But despite his mighty age, the man can still throw. And throw hard. Coupled with a nice group of receivers, a stellar running game, and Jared Allen making hay in opposition backfields, this one has 'Vikings win' written all over it. Except the Steelers are gonna come out on top. Yeah I know, I'm taking the Steelers. My keyboard nearly exploded when it realised what I was typing. How can I possibly take the Steelers? Easy. They play better D and their Yellow and Black attack is on fire. Ben surname-un-spellable is looking good, Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes are getting the job done downfield, and their two headed rushing attack is slicing and dicing people left, right and centre. Add home advantage and it all looks good. Steelers to win. Buffalo @ Carolina -- In their final drive last week, Carolina threw a quick pass to receiver Steve Smith. Other than that, it was all runs as DeAngelo Williams and Johnathan Stewart gashed Tampa Bay, finishing with a touchdown. And that's just how the Panthers roll. Or should roll. Except for someone unknown reason they seem determined to throw the ball whenever the slightest chance rears it's head. And surprise, surprise, Jack Delhomme throws a pick. Or two. Or three. If it wasn't for his five turnovers in last years post season game with Arizona, the Panthers had a good shot at going to, if not winning the Superbowl. It's also worth noting that when Jonathan Stewart gets 14 or more carries, the Panthers are 9-0. This is important because it highlights the benefits of having two backs with contrasting styles, who compliment each other. But, they must be used as a tandem. All this is of course directed at the Tennessee Titans, who seem oblivious to the fact that they have LenDale White on their roster. If the Panthers play to their strengths then they will cream the Bills, who got blasted on the ground last week by the Jets. I think they will. At least I hope they do, because I'm picking them. Panthers for the win. New York (Jets) @ Oakland -- Honestly, I don't want to take either team. Rex Ryan has brought attitude to the Jets D, but not sacks. They get pressure, which helps. But it doesn't stuff drives and force three and outs the way sacks do. Luckily, help is at hand for the Jets. Because JaMarcus Russell has a way of stuffing drives all on his own. Don't be fooled by his performance last week. Russell is not going to be lighting up the scoreboard anytime soon. And to be honest, nor is their run game. Now I know Mark Sanchez is hardly rocking and rolling himself. But he does have better support in Thomas Jones and Leon Washington. As long as Rex and his coaches don't get too excited at the prospect of throwing the ball to their new toy Braylon Edwards, all should be right with the world. And the Jets win. I'm taking 'em. Chicago @ Cincinnati -- Please, please, please, would someone alert NFL commentators and pundits that Matt Forte has not suddenly been drained of all his prowess, like Samson having his hair removed. Forte is fine. His O-line is a different matter. If you watch Chicagos run game carefully, you'll notice that often Forte ends up flat on his back behind the Line Of Scrimmage. This tells us that he's not getting adequate help up front. So, much of the Bears offense now relies on Jay Cutler, Devin Hester and Greg Olsen. I can think of a worse trio in which to vest my hopes of victory. Sadly though, for Bears fans at least, the Bengals have this one wrapped up. Cedrice Benson has had something of a revelation this year. Expect that continue against his old team, nicely supplemented by Palmer and the Bengals pass game. Bengals to win. Probably in the last 10 seconds. Atlanta @ Dallas -- Last week was a breakout game for Cowboys receiver Miles Austin. If Tony Romo can find him and veteran receiver Roy Williams downfield then that opens up opportunities underneath and in the red zone for TE Jason Witten. But more importantly, it'll help keep the safeties off the two headed backfield monster that's just waiting to be unleashed; Marion Barber and Tashard Choice. The two backs are averaging over 5 yards per carry each and have the potential to join the elite of the NFL's one-two punch combos. All they need is the carries. And across the field from them will be a running back tandem that is already establishing itself; The Falcons Michael Turner & Jerious Norwood. This pair of running back beasts has set a tone for the Falcons offense, and the play-action game that works off them has benefitted receiver Roddy White and TE Anthony Gonzalez. With Matt Ryan at the helm the Falcons offense is explosive. The trouble is their D is a little, how do you say, flimsy. In other words, I can see The Cowboys running right over them and picking up the win. This is probably the pick I'm least sure about, but I'm going to back Dallas for this one. New Orleans @ Miami -- God help me for this, but Im gonna back Miami. Yeah, Miami. I can already see the image now of Drew Brees hurling balls all over the field and burying my pick into the ground. But something about the Dolphins tells me that they're gonna steal a win by the smallest of margins. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are something else. Even when Miami doesn't run the Wildcat, those two still burn people for big chunks. And this ball control will force the Saints to do the thing they do pretty darn good, which is throw the football. But that's not how they score. They score on play action. You get a receiver evenly slightly open and sure enough, Brees will find the guy. But if Miami has been studying the film the way I have, hopefully they'll see past it. The Dolphins are the kings so far this season for stopping the run. Hopefully they will treat Pierre Thomas with a bit of respect, but not so much as to get caught with their pants down. I know they can do it. I hope they do it. Because I'm picking them to do it. Arizona @ New York (Giants) -- Toughie. Ahmad Bradshaw is one hell of a running back. Brandon Jacobs has been... inconsistent. Overall the Giants have looked good. But this week, probably against a little twinge of better judgement, I'm backing the Card's. Why? Basically because I think Warner and co. are gonna have a field day with the Giants secondary. And because the Cardinals secondary is gonna have a field day with Eli Manning. Arizona has gradually creeped back into this season after a bad start and I think they may just creep back in a little further by taking a bite out the big apple. So I'm going on a limb to take Arizona. Philadelphia @ Washington -- Hmm, not too sure. There was a time early in this season, for example up to last Sunday morning, when this would have been a no brainer. Eagles all the way. But now, I'm not so sure. The Eagles almost out right refusal to run the ball last week cost them dear. Will they be that stubborn this weak against the 'skins? Who knows. On the other hand, you have a team in Washingotn who are in turmoil. Relieving Jim Zorn of play calling duties will probably not inspire their head coach, who already has that look in his eyes of a man who has been thoroughly beaten down. But, there is hope. The Redskins are built for two things; power runs and play action. That is the real strength of their set up. And maybe a change at the play calling position will lead the Redskins away from the West Coast attack promoted by Zorn and onto more fruitful pastures. With Eagles Linebacker Omar Gaither injured it opens up the chance for big gains by Clinton Portis. Conversely, Eagles QB Donovan McNabb will get little respite this week with Albert Haynesworth lining up at NT for the 'Skins. And with their 3rd ranked pass D, I think maybe the Redskins will have the edge. I'm picking the Redskins to win this one. Christ, did I just say that. So, there we go. Theres some in their that I'm far from 100% sure about, but that's football. Let's wait and see.