2011 NFL Draft: Seattle Seahawks

We've now reached the NFC West, home of my beloved 49ers. Whereas normally I try and do these things alphabetically, except of course when I did the first division, the NFC South, and accidentally ended up doing the Saints before I did the Panthers (I hate the Panthers), this time I'm going to deliberately skip Arizona and San Francisco, instead jumping straight in with the Seattle Seahawks.

The reason for this is because the Seahawks have taken a ton of flak for their draft, which overall I personally thought wasn't that bad. Some of the players I hadn't seen prior to the draft being made, but the ones I had I was impressed with. There are some good players in there, though I suspect much of the scorn was directed at their first round choice of James Carpenter from Alabama, who of the ones I hadn't had a good look at prior to the draft.

So I went back and finally did get a good look at him, their first round pick and 25th overall. So was he any good?

Hell yes he was! I honestly don't get why everyone is crying about Carpenter. Does he occasionally make mistakes? Yes he does. But guess what? So does Tom Brady. So does Peyton Manning. So did Joe Montana back in his day. So did Ronnie Lott, probably one of the greatest football players in the history of the NFL.

Nobody is perfect, so instead what we're looking for is a relatively consistent level of performance across a broad spectrum of plays. And that's exactly what you get with James Carpenter. You get a left tackle who barely put a foot wrong in pass protection and was very strong in the running game as well.

He gets great knee bend, has great leverage when he's blocking, uses his hands well and can cope with a variety of rush moves, including bull rushes and speed off the edge. He moves his feet well and sticks with his block for as long as legally possible. In the run game he cuts well, but really shines when he takes an angle and uses power on a D-linemen.

If I had one knock on him then it would be that sometimes he can get confused by overload blitzes, where he ends up picking up the wrong guy. But that isn't always true of those situations and in general his vision is really good.

So why is everyone getting all pent up over Carpenter? He may not have been the highest rated player on some peoples boards, but that's their boards and not the Seahawks. I didn't have this guy on my radar really going into the draft, but now that I've had a chance to kick back and watch a decent amount of his game tape I'm impressed.

I can easily see how a linemen like Carpenter would creep up someones board. And don't give me all that "but so and so analyst had him rated as a late second rounder". Well good for them, but two things; 1) Seattle didn't have a late second rounder, 2) if Seattle feels he's a first rounder, which I can agree with, then there's no reason why they shouldn't take him just because other people don't like him.

I go back to the whole Cam Newton thing again. I hate Newton as a quarterback. I think he's gonna suck. But that's my opinion, my board. If the Panthers thought he was the number one guy then I can understand why they would take him. I just can't understand what they see in him. But hey ho.

So yeah, I think the Seahawks actually did pretty well with their first rounder and God knows this team needs O-line help. They now have two young first round tackles to build their future O-line around & to protect their QB, so in the long run that's a really good starting point.

But without a second round pick in 2011 it became all the more important for the Seahawks to find the right guy in the third round. In keeping (the chains moving. Sorry) with their theme of working on O-line, they went with Guard John Moffitt from Wisconsin. I really like this pick, not just because I like Moffitt, but also because of the joined up way they're going about rebuilding their O-line. Having taken two tackles in two years, it made sense to go looking for a good interior linemen as well.


And believe me, Moffitt has the skills for that. Moffitt is strong and consistently demonstrated good technique throughout, especially the use of his hands. Footwork was good, in particular when run blocking. He has a real talent for getting inside the playside shoulder of the D-linemen and then flipping his hips into the hole and turning the defender out. Vision and awareness was also good, picking up blitzes and line stunts. I really like Moffitt and think that he'll be a great asset to that O-line.

Next, in round four, was linebacker K.J. Wright from Mississippi State, another player who I didn't get a look at prior to the draft. I've since had a look and I'm of a mixed opinion. Wright is quick and he seems to be pretty alert mentally to what's going on around him. He tackles really well and tracks well across the field, always taking good angles.

But.

The but is that he isn't very strong. You could clearly see that he didn't have the strength to fight his was through blocks at the college level. That's fine, providing you don't want him to do anything more strenuous than consume a block in order to allow a second rusher to come free. But if you're looking for a legitimate pass rush then Wright is not your man.

He also doesn't stand up to run blocks very well. He's just doesn't seem to have the size and strength to take people on. Even wide receivers look like they might be a handful for him. It's a shame really, because he looks like a very committed player, flying around the field and desperately trying to get stuck in wherever he can. He might have a future as a pass defending, weak side type of kid, but I just can't see him lasting as a legitimate linebacker in the NFL. Sorry.

The Seahawks picked again in round four, courtesy of the earlier trade with Detroit that saw them give up their second rounder for a third and a fourth (the third was used on Moffitt, with their original 3rd rounder given up in the Charlie Whitehurst trade last year). This fourth round pick was used on Kris Durham, the wide receiver from Georgia. Conveniently this was another player I hadn't seen, so it was off to do a bit more watchy, watchy. I think I'm watching more football now in a lockout than I did during the bloody season.

Anyway, what's Durham like? Well it doesn't help when you're on the same team as A.J. Green, let's put it that way. The trouble I have is that Durham really didn't get enough throws his way for me to be able to talk reliably about his hands. The passes that I did see come his way were caught, providing the pass was "catchable". You can't really blame the receiver when the ball is so high and behind them that they can barely get their finger tips to it.

The upside is that I got to see Durham running a lot of routes and also got a healthy look at him blocking, both of which he does really well. He doesn't appear to be bursting with speed, but his route running is pretty crisp and he has the technique to overcome tight coverage. His blocking on screen passes and run plays is also good. He's one of those kids who doesn't really have the raw strength to be muscling people around, but does so anyway because of how committed he is to the block and because he dives right in there.

I came away with a really good impression of him, which is good news for the Seahawks because they need more quality receivers.

Onto the fifth round and again the Seahawks are picking twice thanks to their trade with Detroit. Their first pick, 154th overall was actually the original Lions pick, and with it Seattle took cornerback Richard Sherman. Who I hadn't seen. So off I go again. Where's that Standford tape?

Oh my god that was hideous!! Ok, I'll give the critics this one. Sherman sucks. He plays the run almost as bad as Antonio Cromartie. But normally you can get away with that as a corner by providing quality pass coverage (it worked for Deion Sanders at least). Unfortunately Sherman doesn't do that. There is such a thing as loose coverage, but then there appears to be "Sherman Loose". In fact it's so loose it's likes he's not even on the field.

Come the end of training camp and time to make cuts, that might just be a literal statement.

Seattle's second pick in round five is one of my absolute favourites of the whole draft; Mark LeGree, safety, from Appalachian State. I love this kid, absolutely love him. Everything you see on game day is impressive, and importantly for me he brought that same high standard game after game.

Quick as lightning on the field, has amazing vision of what's going on around him (routes etc) and has great instincts for sniffing out plays. A truly great all round defensive player, I think he's going to be a solid hit in the NFL. Sitting back there alongside Earl Thomas, I can see those two causing people all kinds of nightmares. Really impressive.

On to round six and the Seahawks landed corner Byron Maxwell from Clemson. another good player to help boost that secondary, Maxwell is a tough, physical corner, which is right up my street. He closes quickly on the ball when it goes airborne and he has pretty good instincts to boot. Round six was a good place for him to land and maybe given a year or two he'll develop into an excellent corner.

Seventh round now and the Seahawks used their standard pick (they also had a compensatory selection) to bring in Lazarius Levingston, defensive tackle, LSU. And guess what? That's right. Back to the tape...

.... Annnnd he spent half the time on the bench and the other half doing nothing worthy of note. For such a big guy he has a worrying knack of becoming invisible.

Final pick for the Seahawks, their compensatory selection which they used to take Malcolm Smith, Linebacker from USC. As a seventh round pick I don't see how you can really argue with taking Malcolm Smith. He's a tough kid and despite his size he showed some nice speed in the open field, especially running back interceptions and fumbles.

The thing I like most about Smith though is his patience against the run. What I mean by that is that he sits back, sort of lingering on the five yard line while moving laterally across the field, tracking the running back as he comes up to the line. What this allows him to do is to avoid getting blocked up easily in the initial stages of a run play and instead he can follow the ball carrier to the hole and then meet him to make the stop.

This isn't such a desirable trait for 4-3 linebackers, who usually have one gap that they have to protect and so really just need to steam in and fill it, but for a 3-4 inside linebacker this is a really useful skill to have. In such a scheme, the defensive line are expected to occupy blocks and play a two gap scheme, leaving the linebackers largely free to move around and make plays. That's where someone like Smith comes in. With the freedom to track along the line and then stuff the running back for just a 2 or 3 yard gain, I can see Smith becoming a great asset to the Seahawks.

That then is your 2011 Seattle Seahawks draft class. And like I said, I really don't think it's that bad. a couple of misses in my opinion, but even then no team is expected to hit with all its picks. About a 60% success ratio is usually a pretty good rating and I personally think the Seahawks have achieved that with this class.

It'll be interesting to see where they go in free agency and to see if they try and hold on to Matt Hasselbeck or whether they just roll with Charlie Whitehurst. Either way I think the Seahawks have made some good moves here in the draft, especially helping to boost that O-line. If they can get the running backs that they picked up last year into the season healthy, then I think they have the makings of strong running game.

The defensive side has also taken a lift. Hopefully now with guys like LeGree, Maxwell and Smith they'll start to bring together the collection of good players that they have on defense and start building a regular winning unit. They have definitely made themselves even more competitive in the NFC West and I think now they might start to bring some surprises to teams on the road.

2011 could well be another great season for Seattle and its Bill-Walsh-A-Like Head Coach Pete Carroll.

Next up, the Arizona Cardinals. But just before I disappear I want to draw your attention to the new Videos section at NFL.com. I'm not sure how long it's been like this now because I haven't been over there in ages, but I dropped in because I wanted to see the clip of Chad Ochocinco "riding" a bull.

Now I thought NFL.com's video section was bad before. Now it's just plain ridiculous. It's an absolute, unintuitive joke. Even with some of the recent shitty updates YouTube looks like a model of efficient and well thought out design by comparison. It is just freaking awful.

I'd love to know who's in charge of all the video stuff on NFL.com, because if Roger Goodell ever bothers to check it out one day then he's going to be after that guys butt with a firey poker quicker than you can say "YOUR VIDEO SECTION SUCKS!!!"

Ahem. Now it's that time of the month/season/cycle/whatever where I shamelessly beg for people to share my website with as many people as they humanly can. C'mon! How hard is it to drop a link on your facebook page? There could be literally 200 of your friends just dying to read a witty, in depth, well thought out and illuminating blog about football.

And in the mean time they could be filling the void by reading mine.

NFC West Prospects

Time to go and relax on the West Coast for a bit, as we look at the potential future for the NFC West. Starting Alphabetically with: Arizona Cardinals: Ken Whisenhunt has done a tremendous job in Arizona. With Kurt Warner at QB the Cardinals made the Super Bowl in '08. The next year they made it to the playoffs and lost only to the eventual champions. The next year Warner was gone, as was much of the Cardinals linebacking corps. The result was a 2010 season to forget. Poor Ken, undone at the seams by an unenviable personnel situation. Well guess what? It doesn't get much better in 2011. The QB situation is destined for messiness. Aaron Skelton, Derek Anderson and Max Hall are the most likely candidates for a QB competition, but even they are by no means locks for the season ahead. Old Ken might just decide to dump the lot and start from scratch, though Hall did show some promise so he might cling on in there. Anderson however...... much more likely to not be a Cardinal for 2011. Speaking of which, free agency. If you extract the players who are up for restricted and unrestricted free agency then what you're left with is about a 40 man roster, of whom 4 are quarterbacks and 4 are running backs. You have just enough players to scrape an O-line together and just enough receivers, defensive backs, linebackers and D-linemen to field a "team". God help you if you suffer any injuries. Among the names potentially off out the door include restricted free agents Early Doucet and Tim Hightower, along with unrestricted free agents like Steve Breaston, Alan Faneca, Deuce Lutui, Ben Patrick, Alan Branch & Bryan Robinson. Or in other words, a big chunk of some of the decent players that the Cardinals had left. The combination of free agent imports and the draft is going to be a very interesting time for the Cardinals. They pick 5th overall but they could need extra picks way more than they do some critical piece of the puzzle. If they lose all/most of their free agents then they have needs almost everywhere. They'll need a new quarterback. They'll need a few receivers. They'll need offensive linemen (note -men, plural). They'll probably need a new Nose Tackle (though I like young Dan Williams who was a 1st round pick). They'll need to get some impact players at Linebacker. And they'll need about 5 new secondary guys. All in all, if you're a Cardinals fan then 2011 is maybe the year to cut your budget deficit and forget about buying a season ticket. This is not going to be a pretty year. It's going to be messy as the Cardinals try to steer the ship back on course. But have faith. If anyone can fix a broken mess like the 2011 Card's, then it'll be a guy like Ken Whisenhunt. Besides, teams need their supporters more than ever at times like this. That's why you're called a supporter. San Francisco 49ers: By my reckoning, San comes before Seattle and St. At least that's the excuse I'm using. As for the team, the Mike Singletary era is over. It's all change in the staff room. Gone are the emotional speeches backed up by nothing but hot air. Poor Mike could talk a good game, but apparently he couldn't call or organise one. Fingers crossed then for Jim Harbaugh, former coach of the Stanford Cardinal (I wish they would add an "s" to that name). Maybe it's fate. The 49ers have previously hired a former Cardinal(s) Head Coach, who was also quite handy at developing quarterbacks. His name was Bill Walsh and he presided over 3 Super Bowl wins, plus essentially laying all the ground work for numbers 4 and 5. Now it falls to Mr. Harbaugh to try and follow in those immense footsteps. So what does he have to work with? Well it's a mixed bag to be honest. Among some of the names heading out of the door (potentially) are Aubrayo Franklin, Dashon Goldson, Manny Lawson, Jeff Reed, Alex Smith, Troy Smith, Takeo Spikes and Brian Westbrook. That leaves David Carr as the only guaranteed QB to return in 2011 along with a seriously depleted D-line. This then will probably take the major focus of the 49ers in the offseason. The Franchise tag is likely to fall on Franklin once more, keeping him locked up for another year, but that still leaves a lot of empty space around him, Justin Smith and Issac Sopoaga. Oh, and of course, it still leaves the team without a legitimate first string quarterback. If free agency doesn't bring in the answer, then maybe the draft will. The 49ers pick at number 7 and there is good money on it either being used for a QB or a DB. Certainly the 49ers are in a position where the overall quality of the team means they can be a bit more selective with who they want, rather than simply grabbing the best player on offer. As long as the QB question gets fixed, then 2011 promises to be a reasonable year for the 49ers. The playoffs might be a little bit of a stretch, given the rise of St. Louis, but San Francisco has a defense that can compete. All they really need to do is find that spark on offense to match the output of Patrick Willis and co. Seattle Seahawks: Having stunned the world - or at least that part of the world that watches football - the Seahawks are now preparing to build on a season that saw them become the first team with a losing record to win a playoff game. It's just a shame that their free agent list reads more like a grocery list. 24 names. Jordan Babineaux, Raheem Brock, Matt Hasselbeck, Leroy Hill, Sean Locklear, Brandon Mebane, Lawyer Milloy, Chester Pitts, Michael Robinson, Chris Spencer, Brandon Stokley, Leon Washington. The list of names just goes on and on. God only knows where the Seahawks are going in the draft. Seattle picks at 25 but they have so many holes they could be mistaken for Swiss cheese. Unless of course you believe that Charlie Whitehurst is the QB of the future, that two running backs (neither of which is a FB) is ok, that you can get buy on the dodgy O-line that the Seahawks fielded last year, that their D-line doesn't need improvement, that a 3-4 team can afford to only take 5 linebackers into the season and that new corners are not important. If that's the case then fine, but me personally, I'm worried. Well I say worried. About as worried as a 49er fan can be at the demise of the Seahawks. For that is what I foresee, using my magic football crystal ball, that has so far shown about a 55-60% accuracy rating. Honestly, I thought the Seahawks were beyond lucky to make it to the playoffs. Beating the Saints was almost inexplicable. With their core strength depleted for 2011, it looks like they're going to need their 12th man just to keep some of their games close. St. Louis Rams: St. Louis was one of the big surprise packages of 2010. Sure they had improved a little heading into the season, but guided by a rookie QB they were destined to have a rough ride. In the end they exceeded expectations and narrowly missed out on a playoff spot. This year they'll be adjusting to a new offensive coordinator. Josh McDaniels, former Head Coach of the Broncos, steps up to the plate as the man now responsible for the development of Sam Bradford. And while people are bemoaning the fact that McDaniels will be the second coordinator in young Bradfords 2nd year, there are few other people out there that you'd choose over McDaniels to guide a young QB along the path. What's more important is that the Rams free agent list really isn't that bad. It has fewer names on it than most and - importantly - has no names on it that I would consider crucial to the team. That means that the Rams are well placed for a draft in which they'll pick 14th overall. With all their key players returning for 2011, it leaves them open to pick and choose where they go, with tight end, defensive line, defensive back or running back being the more likely candidates for an upgrade. From what I've seen looking at the potential prospects and given the Rams position plus the fact that they're head coach is defense minded, I'd expect them to go Defensive Tackle. Whatever they do, the Rams are poised for one of the better seasons they've had in recent memory, since the glory days of the Greatest Show on Turf. It might not quite reach those heights, but if Bradford continues to develop at the same speed he did last year, then this team can go far.

The desire to stat bust

We start with two bits of news: -- Various news outlets have reported that the St. Louis Rams have hired Josh McDaniels as their new offensive coordinator. McDaniels was fired as the Broncos head coach during the 2010 season and will now oversee the further development of the Rams number one pick QB Sam Bradford, instead of his own first round pick in 2010, Tim Tebow. For all his perceived and/or actual failings as a Head Coach, McDaniels guided and molded the Broncos into a high scoring unit led by QB Kyle Orton. It was the defense that persistently gave the team trouble. The hope is that McDaniels can do the same for St. Louis and the chances are he'll at least take them up one notch from their 2010 showing. -- The Seattle Seahawks have a new Assistant Head Coach and offensive line coach all in one; Tom Cable, the former Head Coach of the Oakland Raiders. Cable has worked previously with famous line coach Alex Gibbs and thus should be able to bring the kind of zone blocking run attack that Pete Carroll was hoping for when he came to Seattle. I like Cable and I wish him all the best in his new role. Of course as a 49ers fan I now have to hope that the defense crashes and burns in spectacular fashion, but there you go. Finally today I have to have a moan. It's not right for me to go more than a few days without a moan, so here we go. Regular readers will know that I'm hardly enamoured with the idea of using statistics to try and break down football, in much the same way as Sabermetrics are used in Baseball. Phrases such as "Win Probability Added" and "Expected Points Added" etc just don't sit well in my vocabulary. There's a mixture of reasons for this, predominantly the fact that after years of study now and plenty of man hours poured into the research, the stats guys seem to have come up with precisely diddly squat when it comes to useful applications to football. The often cited champion of the stats heads, Bill Belichick, has been one of the more active at trying some of the theories espoused by stats heads, and has promptly suffered a series of rather embarrassing gaffs in recent seasons, all of which (naturally) seem to fly under the stats radar. But the biggest problem I've always had is the approach of trying to explain a game that is highly dependent on skill, physical abilities and psychological attitude into a contest of spreadsheets. We're always hearing about how xyz factor should cause certain teams to win more or make certain teams more successful because the numbers add up, and yet we never seem to see the end product of all this speculation, usually because the above factors of skill, physical ability and mental attitude are somehow neglected. The most recent example comes from an article on AdvancedNFL stats.com hosted and run by Brian Burke. Mr. Burke could be considered a leader in this field and has been asked to make various contributions to a number of high profile newspapers, magazines and websites. His articles have been cited by such sites as ProFootballTalk.com and he's been sought out for information and consultation by no less than the mighty ESPN. In other words he's been bloody successful and yes, I am just a little jealous of his success. But I take serious issue with the statements made in the article linked to above, which I shall highlight for you here, because I know how damn lazy some of you can be. Talking of the Green Bay/Atlanta game; "Well, their luck had to run out sometime. One game proves nothing, even a blow-out like this, but it was hilarious to watch ESPN's Sports Reporters Sunday and see the likes of Lupica and Albom struggle to comprehend such an upset. They threw up all the usual fallacious narrative nonsense: momentum, wanting it more, playing under the big lights. Frankly, I'm not sure what all the excuses were because none of it made sense." Basically what appears to be happening here is that Mr. Burke is laughing in the face of the possibility that psychological issues could somehow have an influence on the game. And while the reporters in question probably aren't adverse to the chance to work on their narrative building skills, probably in the hope that one day it will see them kindly in the future when they sit down to right a biography of some famous player/coach/executive, I also believe there is legitimate merit to what they're saying. Psychology plays a factor in sports. Momentum, wanting it more, playing under the big lights. These may sound like esoteric Eastern Martial Arts terms, but they have a genuine place in football. I can recall some fond (and some less fond) memories of my own experience in various team and individual sports over the years, including the impact that emotions and psychology played in those experiences. I remember in my early twenties when I was playing with a group of friends in a purely amateur 6-a-side soccer tournament. We were doing it primarily for fun and for the exercise, so you can imagine our shell shock when by the end of the first 15 minute half of game 1 we were down by 4. The game ended something like 9-0. It had a depressing effect on morale. We didn't score a single goal until the last game of the season, when we won a penalty which yours truly slotted home. Even though we lost that game, just like all the others, the feeling of elation at having finally scored lifted our team and encouraged us to come back for another season, brimming with sadly misplaced hope. Now, I understand that on the scale of importance our team basically represented a cockroach compared to the Leviathan that is the NFL, but that only serves to convince me more of the importance that emotions and psychology play in the league. If we were down in the dumps mid-way through the season having lost all our games up to that point, imagine how much worse it would be if every single loss was broadcast on national television, with the media hanging over you like a pack of wolves after each game just waiting for one sheep to break away from the flock and with the distinct prospect of a loss of employment should the poor run continue. This is why I believe that things like momentum are at times perfectly valid explanations of what we see on the field. As a fan, how many times have you watched your favorite team go down by two scores and suddenly had that sinking feeling. Now apply that feeling to the players on the field. Think of the range of emotions they're experiencing. Anxiety. Apprehension. Outright fear. Fear of losing the game. Fear of having their pride dented. Fear of being embarrassed. Fear of making another critical error that perhaps sinks the team. Are any of these things conducive to creating the required mental approach to play sports? What about wanting it more? Or to be a little more precise; determination and desire. These are powerful tools for a sportsman or sportswoman. One thing that is fairly common across all sports is that as time passes, competitors who are behind and are about to go into an outright downward spiral have an early tendency to display certain common body language, such as drooping of the head and dragging of the feet during breaks in play. Desire is a trait. We can't really measure it. But we can observe it. We see the players on the field who run that little bit harder, who fight and claw for every ball. It's the difference between a ball carrier who regularly steps out of bounds to avoid a hit versus the player who tends to cut back inside and take on a hit in the search for extra yards. We see it in the way some players chase down ball carriers from behind. We see the difference in a desire to make the tackle just by comparing someone like Ray Lewis to Peyton Manning. As for playing under the big lights? Again, I think that can be classed as a fairly legitimate factor worthy of consideration. There's a hell of a difference between a playoff game where it's a "lose and you go home" situation versus a regular season game where a single loss doesn't necessarily break a season. It's a lot of added pressure to cope with and unless you have experience of handling it, it could become a factor that ultimately effects performance on the field. So anyway, that's me done ranting. Hopefully if Mr. Burke takes the time to read this, then in future he'll give the "usual fallacious narrative nonsense" a little more consideration and credit, instead of trying to break everything down into a solvable equation.

Divisional Round Recap

Seattle Seahawks 24 @ Chicago Bears 35: It was inevitable really. Like I said yesterday, the Bears D is much more accomplished than the Saints. And don't let the scoreline disguise the reality of this game. It was 21-0 at half time. By the time the fourth quarter started it was 28-3. The Seahawks basically spent the first 3 quarters or so punting the ball. On both sides of the ball the Bears took control, but the offense was particularly impressive. Jay Cutler was 15/28 for 274 yards with 2 touchdowns. Tight End Greg Olsen only caught 3 passes, but he converted them into 113 yards and a TD. Matt Forte had 25 carries for 80 yards. Chester Taylor finally turned in a performance to start paying back his free agent fee, with 11 carries for 44 yards and a TD. But it was Cutler who stole the show on the ground as well. 8 carries, 43 yards and 2 TD's. It may not sound like the greatest haul in the world, but the 2 touchdowns are impressive and the other runs helped the Bears to keep drives alive. Cutler simply owned the field whenever he was on it. With that win the Bears progress to the NFC Championship game which will now be hosted at Soldier Field, with the Bears welcoming the Packers for what promises to be a superb showdown. New York Jets 28 @ New England Patriots 21: The Jets did it. They only bloody did it. All the trash talk, all the hype, all the back and forth. Sadly the game wasn't quite what was expected, but entertaining in its own way. For the Jets it was the affirmation of a week (or more) spent ripping on the Patriots. For the Patriots it was an embarrassing put down by the most divisive team in the NFL right now. Tom Brady had a so so game. 29/45 for 299 yards, 2 TD's and 1 INT is actually not bad. All the hype at the minute is that the Jets shut the Patriots offense down and confused Brady to point where he was largely ineffective. Well, call me a traditionalist and a cynic, but I hardly call 29 completed passes for 299 yards being "shutdown". That's not to take away from the fact that at times Brady looked uncharacteristically hesitant and at times a little lost, but he still put out a fair afternoons work. He also had a potential 3rd TD dropped in the end zone. But bizarrely the Jets offense topped the Patriots. I say bizarrely because while the numbers tell us that Mark Sanchez went 16/25 for 194 yards and 3 TD's, the tale of the TV is that the Jets offense spent a large amount of this game stinking it up and then only hitting good plays intermittently. RB Shonne Greene helped to stabilise the ship somewhat with 17 carries for 76 yards and a TD, but it was still probably the least impressive QB performance in a playoff win that I've seen for a while. I don't know. On paper it all looks pretty good. But I just get that sense that Sanchez is in way over his depth. Luckily (for him) the Patriots had practically zero pass rush. They mustered no sacks and not even a QB hit. 4 tackles for a loss was their lot. Do we really think it will be so easy next week against the Steelers? Be honest now? Do we think the Steelers (who were missing Troy Polamalu when the teams met in Week 15) will really be so toothless up front? Don't count on it. The positive of course was the Jets defense. 5 sacks, 7 tackles for loss, 7 QB hits, an interception and 2 forced fumbles. Sedrick Ellis alone accounted for 2 sacks, 2 TFL and 2 QB hits. They may have still given up quite a few yards, but their coverage at times held just enough. Again this is an area I would slightly dispute. The coverage was pretty tight, but the prevailing notion that the Jets "smothered" the Patriots receivers is, if I may become a pretentious Brit from the 1920's era, "Utter tosh and Poppycock". 299 yards in the air, and by NFL standards, some of those receivers were most definitely open. Normally Brady would have found them with ease but here he just looked lost and/or blind at times. Maybe I'm being a little too critical and nit picky of the Jets. The inescapable fact is they've just beaten the Colts and the Patriots in successive weeks. Normally, beating just one of those teams would be worthy of the praise. But both? In consecutive weeks? That means the Jets have now made it to the Championship game two seasons in a row. It's a hell of a statement and something that has to be respected. But if Rex Ryan is going to fulfill the hype that his team is a Super Bowl caliber side, then he still has to go to Heinz Field and do something that not many teams do; beat the Steelers at home. In the playoffs.

Divisional round part 2

Wow. Just...... wow. Baltimore Ravens 24 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 31: At halftime it looked like it was all over. For a while there I was thinking to myself "All the those pundits, they nailed it. The Ravens are walking this one." But you just don't count the Steelers down and out that easy. No sir. The Ravens under went a second half implosion upon which the Steelers suddenly pounced to win it. A rough and tumble game, with hits and at times punches (and even a head butt) thrown back and forth, this rivalry game lived up to his hype 10x over. The only thing that didn't stand the test of expectation was the scoreline, which soared to unknown heights for this clash. Not that the defenses didn't have good games. The Ravens D put up six sacks, 6 tackles for loss, 8 QB hits, 5 passes defended and 2 forced fumbles. Terrell Suggs alone reaped 3 sacks, 2 tackles for loss, 2 QB hits and a forced fumble. The Steelers D were not to be out done though. 5 sacks, 7 tackles for a loss, 4 QB hits, an interception, 8 passes defended and a forced fumble. James Harrison led the way with 3 sacks, 3 tackles for loss, 2 QB hits and 2 passes defended. Joe Flacco was held to just 16/30 for 125 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Ben Roethlisberger did only a little better, with 19/32 for 226 yards and 2 TD's. Neither teams ground game found much life, as could be expected given the respective defenses, with Ray Rice being held to 32 yards and a touchdown from 12 carries (seriously, why only 12 carries when you were leading this game comfortably at one point?) and Rashard Mendenhall leading the Steelers with 20 carries for 46 yards and 2 touchdowns. Ultimately the Ravens killed themselves. Despite leading 21 to 7 at half time Rice only carried the ball 6 times in the second half. Are the Ravens taking the Fu...reakin' piss? 6 carries? What was I saying just last week about the Chiefs not sticking with hot hand Jamaal Charles? For the sake of Matt Cassel? Now you're telling me that the Ravens rate Joe Flacco over Ray Rice? That's horseshit. Someone in Baltimore obviously has a king sized hard on for Flacco and it potentially just cost their team a place in the AFC Championship game. "Know Thyself". I'm seriously considering renaming this blog after that quote. Congratulations to the Steelers for a very strong win. They progress to the championship game that will be played either a) in New England, should they beat the Jets tomorrow, or b) in Pittsburgh, should the Jets be victorious. Green Bay Packers 48 @ Atlanta Falcons 21: When John Kuhn ran in for a TD to tie the game at 14 a piece, it was looking like a classic shoot out might be in the making. The Falcons then drove the field, but Matt Ryan sold his receiver short (who then slipped trying to come back to the ball) and Tramon Williams picked off the pass in the endzone. Then the Packers went down the field themselves and took the 21-14 lead. Then they put the game away at 28-14. The Falcons were trying to pull off a desperately needed drive to get back 3 points before half time when Matt "Matty Ice" Ryan suddenly melted in the burning sun of the Packers rising corner Tramon Williams. The Falcons called a play that required Roddy White to run an out to the left. Unfortunately he ran at an angle towards the sideline right from the start, tipping Williams off. Williams had the position on White and Ryan should have just chucked it away or gone somewhere else. Instead he forced it and Williams returned it for a touchdown. The Packers took a lead the Falcons would never touch. But the Packers weren't done. They came back in the second half and drove multiple nails into the Falcons coffin, with two more touchdowns and two field goals. Aaron Rodgers finished the game with a stunning 31/36 for 366 yards and 3 TD's. James Starks carried 25 times for 66 yards. Greg Jennings had 8 catches for 101 yards. The Falcons numbers pale in comparison. Matt Ryan; 20/29 for 186 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs. Michael Turner; 10 carries for 39 yards and a TD. Mike Jenkins; 6 catches for 67 yards. On defense the Packers led a riot. 5 sacks, 6 tackles for loss, 6 QB hits, 2 interceptions, 2 passes defended and a forced fumble. LB Clay Matthews alone accounted for 2 sacks, 2 tackles for loss and 2 QB hits. It ended as a massacre. And this is precisely what I was talking about with Green Bay's potential. All season long they've had this capability within them, to walk onto the field and utterly dominate an opponent, which made their losses in the regular season all the more frustrating for Packers fans. Finally they seem to be getting into the swing of things just at the right moment. Next up is a guaranteed road trip to face the winner of the Seahawks/Bears game. Which reminds me... Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears: Ok Seattle, you knocked off the Saints. Now can you pull off a miracle twice and beat the Bears too? Again the Seahawks have that punchers chance of knocking the Bears out. But it will be much tougher this time around. This is a Bears D that is basically built to stop teams like Seattle; playing a mix of true cover 2 and "Tampa 2", the Seahawks might find Bears defenders dropping into all the different places where they'd otherwise like to put the ball. The Bears pass rush is vastly superior to the Saints, with out the need to bring five man pressures on most plays and finally the Bears defense will be a much tougher nut to crack on the ground. There's a risk here of talking about the Bears much like most people were talking about the Saints last week, but the simple fact of life is that this Bears team is much stronger defensively than the Saints, albeit with a little less punch on offense. Yes, the much maligned Jay Cutler has the chance to finally win his playoff stripes. All he has to do is handle the Seahawks pass rush, which is a lot easier than it sounds, and then get the ball to playmakers like Devin Hester and Johnny Knox, which is also a lot easier than it sounds. But I'm leaning towards the side that says well done to Seattle for coming this far, but you're probably not going any further. The combo of defensive ends Israel Idonije and Julius Peppers is unlike anything the Seahawks line has seen for a while, and given the pretty shoddy nature of the Seahawks O-line it might very well get ugly, quickly. But then that's what everyone was saying about the game with the Saints last week. The winner will host Green Bay in the NFC Championship game. New York Jets @ New England Patriots: Let's face it, this game is probably more hotly anticipated than even the Ravens/Steelers game was. For that we have to thank the big mouth of Rex Ryan and his Jets players who decided that rather than just leaving the Hornets nest alone, they would instead endeavour to poke it repeatedly with the biggest stick they could find until it fell off the tree and split. Probably even more entertaining was listening to Wes Welker slip as many foot references into his press conference as possible (I believe he hit eleven in just under 8 mins). But the time is at hand now to find out who has put their best foot forward and who's been putting their foot in their mouth. On paper, it looks like the Jets are about to get brutally crushed beneath Belichicks boot (and Super Bowl ring(s)) much as they did in week 13 (45-3). Just the other day I put up the pictorial proof on this very site that Darrelle Revis can be beaten. We don't need pictures to tell us that Antonio Cromartie can beaten, or that he is a little, shall we say, "tackle shy". Probably the weakest link, and Rex must know it, is quarterback Mark Sanchez. His only stroke of luck is that the Patriots haven't exactly been the masters of the blitz this year. Otherwise he could be in for a tough day. This Patriots secondary has already shown a taste for interceptions and any flutter balls from Sanchez will be in dangerous territory with the Pats lurking around every corner. Oh, and this before we get to the small matter of the Patriots offense. Tom Brady. Deion Branch. Wes Welker. Aaron Hernandez. Rob Gronkowski. Danny Woodhead. Julian Edelman. BenJarvus-Green Ellis. Brandon Tate. Should I stop now? The Patriots offense is playing as well as any in the league has this season. Drive after drive, like a methodical robotic machine, the Patriots have driven down the field time and again, with Brady firing the ball in all directions and ably supported (for a change) by the solid running game. This is genuinely a scary offensive team that gives Defensive coordinators nightmares. But are they unbeatable? No. Not by a long shot. Aside from regular season losses pre-Randy Moss trade, the Patriots were also taken to the wire by a Packers team that was missing Matt Flynn. The key was physical football on offense that kept the ball away from Brady, and a decent pass rush on offense. People forget that under constant, heavy pressure, Brady is just as susceptible to mistakes as you or eye in our daily work (well, almost). And it turns out that those things are precisely what the Jets specialise in. Their ground game is infinitely better than their passing attack and Rex Ryan is one of the acknowledged masters of the blitz in this league. He also showed his tactical prowess last week against the Colts, leaving gaping holes in his line for the Colts to run at, knowing full well that the ball out of Peyton Mannings hands was a good thing and that the Colts could not sustain any kind of successful rushing attack for the duration of the game. What will Rex Ryan come up with for the Patriots? I'm not sure, but you can bet that Bill Belichick is standing on the opposite sideline with an equally impressive game plan in hand. It's going to be fun to watch, and even more fun if the Jets lose. I'm not sure if the slice of the humble pie they'll have to eat will fit inside the state of New York. Plus, who's going to foot the bill for it?

Wildcard Weekend (part 2)

New Orleans Saints 36 @ Seattle Seahawks 41 Ho-ly-sh... you get the idea. I said it. I didn't think they'd do it but the Seahawks just came out, let it all go and it paid off big time. They dug into their bag of tricks and came out with some unusual stuff. Fake screens, hook-and-spin routes etc, with a healthy dose of shocking defense by the Saints. But the real point that should be made, the real winner here, was the determination and sheer effort by the Seahawks players. We often talk about these kind of things on blogs, in books and on TV. You see hokey films about pulling together and going all out for one another, but nobody ever seems to put the words into practice. You see people try, then give up. Well the Seahawks didn't. They gave us a shining example of mental strength pushing the body to new levels and how teamwork & hustle can truly make a big difference in football. Marshawn Lynch's TD run was a great demonstration of that as QB Matt Hasselbeck was among those Seahawks racing down the field to help their team mate get the score. We can't forget completely about the losers though. We have to take our collective hats off I think (gentlemen, if you please) to the New Orleans Saints offense. Without his starting running backs Drew Brees was forced to throw 39/60 (sixty!!) for 404 yards and 2 TD's with no interceptions. It was a huge effort and let's not overlook the fact that traditionally speaking, when you score 36 points, you have a tendency to win a lot of games. So I wouldn't begrudge the Saints offense for shooting some killer looks at the defense who were about as stout, rugged and effective as a drill bit made from chocolate. The tackling, the coverage, the whole works. It was just all around poor defense. I dunno, maybe defensive coordinator Greg Williams was distracted this week with potential job offers on the table, but man, that defense just wasn't the same as it was last year. They looked like the 2008 group that stunk it up on a regular basis. So now the Seahawks progress to the divisional round. Up next? If Green Bay wins the other NFC Wildcard game on Sunday, then the Seahawks head to Chicago. If the Eagles win, the Seahawks have a date with Atlanta. In the meantime the Seahawks and their fans have time to boogey: New York Jets 17 @ Indianapolis Colts 16 Some how, some way, the Jets did it. Mark Sanchez was awful. 18/31 for 189 yards and an INT. He was throwing loose passes all over the field and was lucky not to get picked off more than just the once. But fate has a funny way of twisting at this time of year. The Colts ran the ball. And kept running it. I know that I've often suggested that the Colts might benefit from running a little more, but this isn't quite what I had in mind. Actually, scrap that. This is nothing like what I had in mind. 27 runs? By the colts? And Manning threw just 18/26? What? The most mind boggling for me was the Colts approach on third down. When I think of predominantly pass first teams like the Colts running the ball, I'm thinking first and second down. Maybe the occasional sneaky run on third down. But to go for a near all out attack on third down using the run? No, surely not. It doesn't matter if I had one yard to go, two, three, four, or eight, whatever, I would be trusting that down and our offenses continued possession of the ball to Peyton Manning. I certainly wouldn't be overly keen to be handing the ball off to Dominic Rhodes. Joseph Addai I can live with, but I'd much rather see Addai in pass protection or running a route on 3rd down, with my golden boy surveying the field and doing his thing. Not so the Jets, who apparently got sick and tired of Sanchez throwing the ball to invisible receivers and thus decided to break out their rushing attack for a change. You remember right, that same rushing attack that allowed them to somewhat protect Sanchez last season and helped them to get to the AFC Championship game? Yeah that one. LaDanian Tomlinson. That's all I'm saying. Ok, I'll say a little more. 16 carries, 82 yards, 2 TD's. The guy looks fresh and ready to roll in these playoffs. Just when everyone has smacked Tomlinson down once more, along come the Jets to remind everyone that essentially the offensive line dictates a big part of how many yards a running back gets. Thus guys like Tomlinson have little to fear. He still has the burst to hit a hole and fall forwards for yards, possibly for another 2 or 3 years providing there is no major upheaval in the Jets O-line. Now finally I'd like to end on a complaint, or two, because God knows I love me a moan. The first issue in question is the "roughing the kicker" called against the Colts. I appreciate that under the letter of the law, that was a penalty. I'm not disputing that. But what I will dispute is that in the offseason that rule needs to be changed. If that degree of contact is what constitutes "roughing" in the modern world, then for the last 10 years or so, anytime I've ever got off a bus during the rush hour I've committed numerous fouls for "roughing". In my opinion, the Colts rusher was making an active attempt to pull up at the end and avoid any serious, hard hitting collision with the kicker. Or to put it another way, he could have just drilled the guys standing leg and left him in a crippled heap, but he didn't. Contact like this, while only a very small part of the game, helps to enforce the wider image that the NFL is turning "soft". If the league is going to continue to be as successful as it has been, it needs to hold onto the fans it has and that means reversing this trend of perceived or actual "softness" in the game. The second thing I want to bitch about is the Colts calling a timeout with 29 seconds left as the Jets were driving for the winning field goal. My question is simply; why? On the sidelines, Manning looked pissed off and I can sympathise with that. It set up a pass by Sanchez to Edwards on the next play, which set the Jets up for a 32-yard field goal to win the game. It just blows the mind sometimes. Do the Colts not have a plan for this? Why do team keep making these critical errors in time management, week after damn week? Given the huge salaries involved, as an owner I would be chewing glass right about now, wondering what in the hell I was forking out the big bucks for given that I could probably hire a high school coach to come in and manage the clock better than that, at far less expense. But enough complaining, at least for now. As the number six seed, the Jets will now go on to play Tom Brady and the Patriots. Maybe Rex was right? Maybe he does have a Super Bowl winning team at hand. I'll wait and see how Sanchez gets on first if that's ok everyone. And onto the preview of Sunday's games. Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs (1:00pm ET, CBS) (6:00pm GMT, Sky Sports 2) The Ravens at the Chiefs, as running game clashes with running game. What intrigues me, because I'm a sad git who gets intrigued by otherwise uninteresting things, is the style clash that will take place between the three main runners on Sunday. First we have Jamaal Charles of the Chiefs. Charles is all about the speed. In the open field he can light teams up just as easily as Chris Johnson of the Titans. Typically with Charles you'll see the Chiefs run a "stretch" style play, where the offensive line all moves in one direction at the snap, looking to get the jump on their respective D-linemen and seal them inside using what we call a "reach" block. The idea is to cutoff the defense, pin them inside and then let Charles go flying around the outside and up the field with his speed. Thomas Jones of the Chiefs is very different. Coming from the Jets last year and, if we're honest, getting a little long in the tooth right now, Jones is more of you inside style rusher. Typically you'll see the Chiefs start off moving in one direction, similar to the stretch play above, but with a tight end and/or a fullback coming back against the flow to help kick out defenders on the backside and create a void up the middle for Jones, where he can use his power, toughness and, let's face it, big brass balls to drive right through the heart of the defense and off to pay dirt. My favourite though is Ray Rice of the Ravens. Why? Because (shut up, I know) normally with running backs, their success is tied very closely to their offensive line. Or to put it another way, unless you happen by chance to be a ghost it's physically impossible to run through a wall of 300 pound offensive and defensive linemen standing shoulder to shoulder. This is the major problem that Chris Johnson has had in Tennessee this year. Every time they call a run the Titans O-line seems to get wadded up in a bunch, which is a win for the defense. With no gaps between the linemen, it makes it very easy for the linebackers to read the play. All they have to do is flow towards the gaps at the two ends of the bunch and boom, dead play. Coincidentally the Ravens D happens to be quite good at doing just that. But the thing with Ray Rice is, he seems to possess an extraordinary vision on such plays for finding the tiny little cracks in the defense. His lateral quickness combined with that vision allows Rice to to squirm through creases that other running backs can't, if they even see them in first place. Credit to Rice for that. But the question still lingers, who might win such a battle? Well if I'm honest, the Ravens appear have the advantage. We know both teams can run the ball and that both teams struggle a little when throwing, but the Ravens D gives them the clear edge. That's not to say that the Chiefs have a weak defense, but they're simply not the Ravens. They can both bring pressure on the quarterback and both teams have playmakers in the back end, but critically in what could prove to be a ground and pound game, the Ravens run defense has the edge. The Ravens finished the regular season as the number 5 defense against the run. The Chiefs came in at number 14. So if it turns out to be a grind 'em down style field position battle, you probably have to give Baltimore the advantage. There is hope however for the Chiefs. An early score could tempt the Ravens into throwing a little more and as we've seen this season they're pass protection still leaves something to be desired. That gives Tamba Hali the open shot he needs to get in and cause some havoc. Hali topped the AFC for sacks in the regular season with 14.5 (only DeMarcus Ware finished ahead of him in the NFC, with 15.5). Add to that the hidden effect of numerous QB hits and pressures which go largely unnoticed on the stat sheets (someone at one of the big networks needs to fix this), and you have a recipe for forcing Joe Flacco into some bad throws. The Chiefs have the people in the secondary to make Flacco pay, and so the Chiefs could be set up to pull off the next huge upset in the 2010 season Wildcard weekend. We'll see. The winner has a date lined up with the Steelers... Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles (4:30pm ET, FOX) (9:30pm GMT, Sky Sports 2) The Packers and the Eagles clash in what bizarrely many people are touting as the true NFC Championship game. I think the Falcons and Bears might have something to say about that (and the Seahawks I guess). Still though, it is a hell of a clash to be having in the wildcard weekend. Michael Vick, the NFL's golden ticket for redemption (and advertising revenues) up against Aaron Rodgers, the successor to Brett Favre. So how good are these teams? The Eagles destroyed the Redskins in a style that you would expect of a great team. They also produced the miracle at the New Meadowlands, coming back from almost certain defeat at the hands of what was a very strong Giants team (10-6 with one of the better defenses out there) to storm to victory. The Packers caliber is much more subtle. Consider that the Patriots are widely touted as the best team in the NFL right now, and that the Packers managed to run their game against the Patriots very close, all without the aid of starting QB Aaron Rodgers. 'The Pack' are also one of those rare teams that has great strength on both sides of the ball. They have a great offense that is more than capable of getting into a shootout with any team in the league. But on defense they are also pretty sound. The development of corners Tramon Williams and Sam Shields has had a huge impact for them. When you then consider that their front seven is up there among the best, easily at home alongside the Ravens and the Steelers, and you have a seriously solid all around team. Not quite the same story in Philadelphia. The Eagles have Mike Vick. They have DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy and James Harrison (don't knock the guy). But on defense it begins to get a little flimsy. While Trent Cole, Juqua Parker and Darryl Tapp form the backbone of a formidable pass rush, the Eagles have still been found wanting on the back end this season, and their rush defense has at times been very poor. All things considered I think the Packers have the edge going into this game, but as we've seen this season, not least in this wildcard weekend, anything is possible on any given Sunday. Could the X factor that is Michael Vick tip the balance? Will Aaron Rodgers simply stroll onto the field and tear apart the Eagles secondary? Maybe DeSean Jackson will have a few big run backs in the kicking game? Guess we'll all just have to grab a beer (Amaretto for me please), sit back, relax and tune in to what is proving to be one of the most intriguing seasons in recent memory. I'll be back tomorrow for a full recap.

Wildcard Weekend (part 1)

So now we know where three teams will be headed in 2011. The Titans have confirmed Jeff Fisher will be their coach for at least another year. The Dolphins have signed Tony Sparano through 2013. Not, however, before arranging a meeting with Eric Mangini to come on board as a "consultant", cancelling a press conference along the way that would have been used to confirm Sparano as the 2011 coach of the Dolphins. The meeting with Mangini didn't go ahead in the end and Sparano has been confirmed, but the damage to the reputation of both the coach and owner has been done. Dolphins owner Stephen Ross now looks like a jackass. And he's pulled Sparano down with him, effectively sending the message to the players that "we couldn't get the guy we wanted and we couldn't find anyone else who would take the role, so we're bringing back Sparano for you. Enjoy." Of course the guy they "wanted" was Jim Harbaugh, who will now be coaching the 49ers for 2011. Harbaugh's first order of business? Quarterback. With both Alex and Troy Smith up for free agency, that leaves David Carr as the only guy signed for 2011. With Harbaughs college QB Andrew Luck staying on for another year, that means the 49ers might be looking for a trade. One option is Josh Johnson of the Buccaneers, who Harbaugh has worked with previously. I really like Johnson so you won't hear any complaints from me. The other possibility, outside of the draft of course, is a free agent. Topping that list might be Donovan McNabb who is expected to be released by the Redskins. Please Jim; don't. McNabb has done well, but he's not exactly Mr. Consistent and seems to have a real problem dealing with pressure. Please, let's just go somewhere else, with a young guy who you can mold. Please. Just before we have a look at this Saturday's wild card games, just time to point you in the direction of the latest work from NFL.com's Albert Breer. Good stuff. Now, games, which after all is what football is all about. New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks (4:30PM ET, NBC) The stage is set for an epic disappointment. Quite whose, we don't yet know. It could be the Seahawks, their hopes raised after stumbling to victory over the Rams. On the back of Mike Williams and a semi-resurgent Marshawn Lynch, the Seahawks have become the first 7-9 division champion, and the first team outside of a strike shortened season to make the playoffs with a losing record. It all looks so hopeful. It's a big achievement, especially after such miserable seasons as the Seahawks have endured in recent years (as a 49er fan I can only say one thing. Good). Maybe this is their time to shine again? Or maybe it's their time to get their dreams crushed, as the Saints roll into town and flatten their helpless and hapless opponents in a demonstration of such sheer dominance and offensive power that the French nation promptly surrender to Coach Payton before he turns on them (a bit of good ol' fashion British light hearted humour/Xenophobia/racism there). Conversely, it could be the Saints in for a shock. God knows it would be a shock to all of us if Seattle wins, but they have a few things in their favour. Last year the Saints finished the regular season with a +11 turnover differential. This year the Saints finished at -6. That's not helped by the loss of running backs Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory. The expectation now is that with the loss of his run game, Drew Brees will have to throw even more, possibly close to 50 times in this game. With Brees's recent problems with interceptions, that could be a potential gold mine waiting to be tapped for Seattle. Then we have the crowd. The noise in Qwest Field is pretty legendary, and in a playoff game there is likely to be little respite for the Saints. That throws up issues of false starts at critical moments and a breakdown of communication, especially during audibles. The Saints are used to very loud stadiums, but not when their offense is on the field. Finally; just the sheer surprise factor of the Seahawks. They have nothing to lose and everything to gain, the exact opposite of the defending champion Saints. If the Saints are too cocky it could be their downfall. Too conservative and the same applies. Meanwhile the Seahawks can dig deep into the playbook on both sides of the ball and just go all out for the win. If they crash and burn, who cares? If Seattle gets hammered 45-0 I wont batter an eye lid (just laugh. Heartily). On paper I would expect the Saints to do just that. It's not like Seahawks fans realistically expect their team to beat the Saints. And if they lose by just 3 points? That's still a loss, so all that conservative play just went out of the window for nothing. If the Seahawks just come out, have fun and let it all hang loose, who knows? I should also probably take the time right now to point out that I wont be doing picks this week, or for the rest of the season (possibly not even for the whole of next season). My regular season record was just over .500, my playoff record from last year was terrible (including 0-7 from the Divisional round onwards if I remember rightly) and just generally I find it much more enjoyable watching games when I'm not secretly cheering on one side or the other because I picked them. And that's before we get onto the issue of teams not doing as their told (Texans, Panthers, Titans etc. Hate those guys). I doubt it'll be a great loss to the world. New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts (8:00PM ET, NBC) Surprise, surprise, Rex Ryan has been writing checks with his mouth that his team potentially wont be able to cash. The way to the Super Bowl would see the Jets likely take on Peyton Manning, arguably the best QB in the league today, followed by Tom Brady, arguably the best QB in the league today, and then possibly followed by Ben Roethlisberger, arguably the best QB in the league today. That's a hell of a lot of good quarterbacks to be facing, even for the Jets defense. While they have the potential to be very solid, they've also had their fair share of struggles this season, including against the Browns, a team not noted for the wild success of its offense. Let us not forget also that all of these teams must be overcome with Mark Sanchez at the helm for the Jets offense. Now just to recap, that means Mark Sanchez versus (potentially); -- The Colts defense, which was already good and has only got better lately. The Colts D gave up the highest percentage of passes completed in the regular season, but were in the top half of the table for least passing yards allowed. This is also a defense that gave up less touchdowns than the Jets. -- The Patriots defense, which gave up one more TD than the Jets D (25 to 24), but recorded over double the number of interceptions (25 to 12). -- The Steelers defense, which; conceded the second least yards per game (behind the Chargers), the least total points (232 compared to the Jets 304), the least points per game (14.5), conceded the second least (tied) percentage of 3rd down conversions (32%), recorded the most sacks (48), gave up less touchdowns (15) than it had interceptions (21), and gave up the fewest rushing yards (1,004) which was about 437 yards better than the second placed team (Chicago). In other words, it's going to be bloody hard for the Jets to make a dent in a very strong playoff group. The added pressure of Rex Ryan telling the world that he doesn't think Brady works as hard as Manning or can cope as well without his coaches as Manning, only helps to set up a great (and embarrassing) down fall in the divisional round. That's providing of course that they can topple the Colts. That would be the Indianapolis Colts who struggled at times, especially in the middle of the season, but otherwise did very well for themselves. Despite the hiccups, the Colts offense still finished with the 4th most points in the regular season and picked up more first downs per game than any other team. In particular Manning and the Colts love games like this. Racking up the points on offense entices the opposing side into a shoot out. That's where Freeney and Mathis come in. If the back end can hold up long enough (helped dramatically by playing less experienced QB's like Sanchez) that opens the door for a furious pass rush. When your rushing attack stinks, as the Jets has lately, that only increases your appearance of one dimensionality further. The Jets have fought and battled at times and somehow came through with the record that they did. If they want to go any further, it's going to take a tremendous effort. All I know is it's going to be a hell of a lot of fun to watch! Tomorrow I'll be back to recap the Saturday action and to look forward to Sunday's game.