Showing posts with label wildcard weekend. Show all posts
Showing posts with label wildcard weekend. Show all posts

Monday, January 10, 2011

Sundays recap and more uses of the word 'decertify'

Better late than never they always say. Unless of course your commuting a sentence to a prisoner on death row, in which case late is probably worse than never. On that note, let's recap Sunday's action. Baltimore Ravens 30 @ Kansas City Chiefs 7 I needed to check something after the game just to be sure and indeed on inspecting the official game book I was right. Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles did only get 2 carries in the second half. This is the same Jamaal Charles who carried the ball 7 times for 87 yards and a TD in the first half. That's an average of 12.4 yards per carry. This is why I have absolutely no sympathy for the Chiefs, their offensive Coordinator Charlie Weis or Head Coach Todd Haley. I understand, trust me I do, that the nuances of coaching are not always apparent to the naked eye or to the cold data of the end of game statistics. But I also know this much; Jamaal Charles should have carried the ball more than just twice in the second half. It's ludicrous. It's absolutely inexcusable. Coaches are incredibly fond, as are most professional people, of believing that their job is so difficult it couldn't possibly be done by a lay person. Of course in most professions the technical details and tweaks are beyond most untrained individuals. But there also things about coaching, like a number of professions, that are so damn obvious even the least trained and only partially knowledgeable person could point out. Like Jamaal Charles being the Keystone of the Chiefs offense for instance. Or the fact that despite some impressive performances this season, there is absolutely no way in hell that Matt Cassel should be considered a Pro Bowl QB by any sane person. Good, I can live with. But Pro Bowl? Give me a damn break! Actually Cassel did, by going 9/18 for 70 yards and throwing 3 interceptions. Ugh! Charles ended the day with 9 carries for 82 yards and a TD. Yes, he lost yards, thanks to two bad plays. Thomas Jones, the other high quality back for the Chiefs received just 5 carries for 15 yards. It's just such an absolute joke. But it had started with promise (sort of) when the Chiefs got after the Ravens QB Joe Flacco in the first quarter and Tamba Hali (remember him from the preview yesterday?) got the sack and forced fumble. Hali ended the game with 2 sacks, a forced fumble, an additional QB hit and a pass defended. But he's not good enough for the Pro Bowl apparently (I'll let it go in 2012). Linebacker Jovan Belcher also had 1.5 sacks for the Chiefs, along with 2 tackles for loss and 2 further QB hits, while Eric Berry (watch list) recorded 4 of the Chiefs 6 passes defended, including a TD saving dive. But anyway, back to the Chiefs offense. After recovering the fumble the Chiefs got the ball and on the second play of the drive the Chiefs ran the old stretch play to the left, sending Charles rumbling 41 yards for the TD. It was only his second carry of the game. He followed it up later with carries of 11, 8 and 9 yards. Then he rumbled 4 yards and was stripped by Terrence Cody (yes, Mount Cody, the 350 odd pound Defensive Tackle) who fell on top of him to finish the play! But that's ok. Explosive runners like Charles occasionally fumble the ball. That's just one of those things you have to live with. Especially when Charles came back on the Chiefs next possession and put his bad play behind him by running for 11 yards. Then nothing. That was it. Apart from his 2 carries in the second half, that's all Charles got. How is that possible. How is that a back whose shortest run was 4 yards doesn't get to touch the ball more in the second half? And you can argue that the Chiefs ended up behind and needed to get back in the game, but judging by his average Charles was the best shot the Chiefs had! It just makes no sense to me. Like the Ravens obsession with making Joe Flacco throw the ball 25 times before half time every game. At least this time Flacco actually started to make something happen, finishing the game 25/34 for 265 yards and 2 touchdowns. Ray Rice had 17 carries for 57 yards. Willis McGahee added another 44 yards and a TD on 10 carries. Terrell Suggs was the Ravens difference maker on defense. 2 sacks, 2 tackles for loss and 4 quarterback hits helped to keep the Chiefs offense in check, at least outside of that brief period in the first half when Jamaal Charles was absolutely hanging the Ravens D out to dry. Ray Lewis also pitched in as you might expect, with a sack, tackles for loss, a QB hit and forced fumble. All in all, the Chiefs were their own worst enemy. According to the well known and much respected Ancient Greek Writer Pausanias, there was an inscription made in the forecourt of the Temple of Apollo, at Delphi. It simply translates as "Know Thyself". This of course echo's the famous saying by Chinese General, Politician and Strategist, Sun Tzu; "So it is said that if you know others and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles." (Page 82, The Art of War, translated by Thomas Cleary, Shambhala Dragon Editions). The Chiefs may or may not have known the enemy, but they appeared to know little about themselves and as a result a glorious opportunity to energise the Kansas fan base with a playoff win was lost, through no fault but their own. That means that Baltimore now heads to Heinz Field to play Pittsburgh in what promises to be a great rivalry game, while the Jets head to Foxborough for a similarly chop licking encounter. Green Bay Packers 21 @ Philadelphia Eagles 16 The NFL's golden boy is no more. Well, he's not in the playoffs anymore at least. It was a close run thing though. With just a little over 30 seconds remaining, Vick threw the ball up into the endzone where it was picked off by Tramon Williams. One of the key components in the rebirth of the Packers defense this year cemented his reputation by sealing the win. A win that showed the Packers still have some versatility on offense. The worry coming into this game was that they would become one dimensional in the playoffs, unable to relieve the pressure on Aaron Rodgers and the passing game. Rookie RB James Starks put that to bed with 23 carries for 123 tough yards. This helped to keep the chains moving and set up Aaron Rodgers to go 18/27 for 180 yards and 3 touchdowns. Hitting 9 different receivers over the course of the game, Rodgers did enough with the passing game to help secure the win. The Packers also owe a lot to their defense. Clay Matthews and co. pulled off some vital sacks and of course won the game with the sole interception of Vick. In the end the league MVP candidate completed just 20/36 for for 292 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. On the ground he mustered just 33 yards and a sneaked TD on 8 carries. LeSean McCoy was held to 46 yards off 12 carries. DeSean Jackson had 2 catches for 47 yards. The Eagles defense managed only 2 sacks. In a way, it was a bit disappointing. I was kind of expecting the loser of this game to go down in a blaze of glory, on the bad end of a 45-42 shootout. Instead we got quite a conservative score from two teams well known for lighting up the opposition and the Eagles dropped out of the playoffs in something of a damp squib. That now means that the Packers progress to face Atlanta in the Georgia Dome, while Seattle will travel to Soldier Field to face Chicago. Now in other news: -- According to NBC's Mike Florio, Mike Mayock is a Genius. The qualification for this prestigious award? Not writing off the Seahawks as many had done and instead giving them a "fighters chance" in their playoff game against the Saints. My question then is thus; given that I too gave the Seahawks a fighters chance, does that make me a genius in Florio's eyes as well? Especially given that my rookie watch list scored a few more hits than Mayock did with the draft. Wheres my big TV contract? -- We finish today with another article from ProFootballTalk.com, who finally seem to have realised something that I pointed out a long time ago; the NFLPA can prevent a lockout anytime they wish. To quote specifically from their article; "Of course, the ability of the union to decertify and block a lockout also makes a lockout less likely. Union officials continuously gloss over that fact. NFLPA spokesman George Atallah has said that the union prefers to work out a new Collective Bargaining Agreement over decertifying." Whatever the NFLPA may "prefer", the fact still remains that any talk of a lockout is utter nonsense fabricated by the NFLPA. They have within their power the ability to block a lockout at any time and so, if indeed a lockout occurs in 2011, it will be the fault of the players and not the owners. I don't particularly like defending the owners because let's face it, they're the ones who charge you $30 to park and $100 to go and watch pre-season games. But I also appreciate two things: 1) Honesty is more important than prejudices, 2) The reason the owners charge so much money for parking fees is because the players wages are so damn inflated.

Sunday, January 09, 2011

Wildcard Weekend (part 2)

New Orleans Saints 36 @ Seattle Seahawks 41 Ho-ly-sh... you get the idea. I said it. I didn't think they'd do it but the Seahawks just came out, let it all go and it paid off big time. They dug into their bag of tricks and came out with some unusual stuff. Fake screens, hook-and-spin routes etc, with a healthy dose of shocking defense by the Saints. But the real point that should be made, the real winner here, was the determination and sheer effort by the Seahawks players. We often talk about these kind of things on blogs, in books and on TV. You see hokey films about pulling together and going all out for one another, but nobody ever seems to put the words into practice. You see people try, then give up. Well the Seahawks didn't. They gave us a shining example of mental strength pushing the body to new levels and how teamwork & hustle can truly make a big difference in football. Marshawn Lynch's TD run was a great demonstration of that as QB Matt Hasselbeck was among those Seahawks racing down the field to help their team mate get the score. We can't forget completely about the losers though. We have to take our collective hats off I think (gentlemen, if you please) to the New Orleans Saints offense. Without his starting running backs Drew Brees was forced to throw 39/60 (sixty!!) for 404 yards and 2 TD's with no interceptions. It was a huge effort and let's not overlook the fact that traditionally speaking, when you score 36 points, you have a tendency to win a lot of games. So I wouldn't begrudge the Saints offense for shooting some killer looks at the defense who were about as stout, rugged and effective as a drill bit made from chocolate. The tackling, the coverage, the whole works. It was just all around poor defense. I dunno, maybe defensive coordinator Greg Williams was distracted this week with potential job offers on the table, but man, that defense just wasn't the same as it was last year. They looked like the 2008 group that stunk it up on a regular basis. So now the Seahawks progress to the divisional round. Up next? If Green Bay wins the other NFC Wildcard game on Sunday, then the Seahawks head to Chicago. If the Eagles win, the Seahawks have a date with Atlanta. In the meantime the Seahawks and their fans have time to boogey: New York Jets 17 @ Indianapolis Colts 16 Some how, some way, the Jets did it. Mark Sanchez was awful. 18/31 for 189 yards and an INT. He was throwing loose passes all over the field and was lucky not to get picked off more than just the once. But fate has a funny way of twisting at this time of year. The Colts ran the ball. And kept running it. I know that I've often suggested that the Colts might benefit from running a little more, but this isn't quite what I had in mind. Actually, scrap that. This is nothing like what I had in mind. 27 runs? By the colts? And Manning threw just 18/26? What? The most mind boggling for me was the Colts approach on third down. When I think of predominantly pass first teams like the Colts running the ball, I'm thinking first and second down. Maybe the occasional sneaky run on third down. But to go for a near all out attack on third down using the run? No, surely not. It doesn't matter if I had one yard to go, two, three, four, or eight, whatever, I would be trusting that down and our offenses continued possession of the ball to Peyton Manning. I certainly wouldn't be overly keen to be handing the ball off to Dominic Rhodes. Joseph Addai I can live with, but I'd much rather see Addai in pass protection or running a route on 3rd down, with my golden boy surveying the field and doing his thing. Not so the Jets, who apparently got sick and tired of Sanchez throwing the ball to invisible receivers and thus decided to break out their rushing attack for a change. You remember right, that same rushing attack that allowed them to somewhat protect Sanchez last season and helped them to get to the AFC Championship game? Yeah that one. LaDanian Tomlinson. That's all I'm saying. Ok, I'll say a little more. 16 carries, 82 yards, 2 TD's. The guy looks fresh and ready to roll in these playoffs. Just when everyone has smacked Tomlinson down once more, along come the Jets to remind everyone that essentially the offensive line dictates a big part of how many yards a running back gets. Thus guys like Tomlinson have little to fear. He still has the burst to hit a hole and fall forwards for yards, possibly for another 2 or 3 years providing there is no major upheaval in the Jets O-line. Now finally I'd like to end on a complaint, or two, because God knows I love me a moan. The first issue in question is the "roughing the kicker" called against the Colts. I appreciate that under the letter of the law, that was a penalty. I'm not disputing that. But what I will dispute is that in the offseason that rule needs to be changed. If that degree of contact is what constitutes "roughing" in the modern world, then for the last 10 years or so, anytime I've ever got off a bus during the rush hour I've committed numerous fouls for "roughing". In my opinion, the Colts rusher was making an active attempt to pull up at the end and avoid any serious, hard hitting collision with the kicker. Or to put it another way, he could have just drilled the guys standing leg and left him in a crippled heap, but he didn't. Contact like this, while only a very small part of the game, helps to enforce the wider image that the NFL is turning "soft". If the league is going to continue to be as successful as it has been, it needs to hold onto the fans it has and that means reversing this trend of perceived or actual "softness" in the game. The second thing I want to bitch about is the Colts calling a timeout with 29 seconds left as the Jets were driving for the winning field goal. My question is simply; why? On the sidelines, Manning looked pissed off and I can sympathise with that. It set up a pass by Sanchez to Edwards on the next play, which set the Jets up for a 32-yard field goal to win the game. It just blows the mind sometimes. Do the Colts not have a plan for this? Why do team keep making these critical errors in time management, week after damn week? Given the huge salaries involved, as an owner I would be chewing glass right about now, wondering what in the hell I was forking out the big bucks for given that I could probably hire a high school coach to come in and manage the clock better than that, at far less expense. But enough complaining, at least for now. As the number six seed, the Jets will now go on to play Tom Brady and the Patriots. Maybe Rex was right? Maybe he does have a Super Bowl winning team at hand. I'll wait and see how Sanchez gets on first if that's ok everyone. And onto the preview of Sunday's games. Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs (1:00pm ET, CBS) (6:00pm GMT, Sky Sports 2) The Ravens at the Chiefs, as running game clashes with running game. What intrigues me, because I'm a sad git who gets intrigued by otherwise uninteresting things, is the style clash that will take place between the three main runners on Sunday. First we have Jamaal Charles of the Chiefs. Charles is all about the speed. In the open field he can light teams up just as easily as Chris Johnson of the Titans. Typically with Charles you'll see the Chiefs run a "stretch" style play, where the offensive line all moves in one direction at the snap, looking to get the jump on their respective D-linemen and seal them inside using what we call a "reach" block. The idea is to cutoff the defense, pin them inside and then let Charles go flying around the outside and up the field with his speed. Thomas Jones of the Chiefs is very different. Coming from the Jets last year and, if we're honest, getting a little long in the tooth right now, Jones is more of you inside style rusher. Typically you'll see the Chiefs start off moving in one direction, similar to the stretch play above, but with a tight end and/or a fullback coming back against the flow to help kick out defenders on the backside and create a void up the middle for Jones, where he can use his power, toughness and, let's face it, big brass balls to drive right through the heart of the defense and off to pay dirt. My favourite though is Ray Rice of the Ravens. Why? Because (shut up, I know) normally with running backs, their success is tied very closely to their offensive line. Or to put it another way, unless you happen by chance to be a ghost it's physically impossible to run through a wall of 300 pound offensive and defensive linemen standing shoulder to shoulder. This is the major problem that Chris Johnson has had in Tennessee this year. Every time they call a run the Titans O-line seems to get wadded up in a bunch, which is a win for the defense. With no gaps between the linemen, it makes it very easy for the linebackers to read the play. All they have to do is flow towards the gaps at the two ends of the bunch and boom, dead play. Coincidentally the Ravens D happens to be quite good at doing just that. But the thing with Ray Rice is, he seems to possess an extraordinary vision on such plays for finding the tiny little cracks in the defense. His lateral quickness combined with that vision allows Rice to to squirm through creases that other running backs can't, if they even see them in first place. Credit to Rice for that. But the question still lingers, who might win such a battle? Well if I'm honest, the Ravens appear have the advantage. We know both teams can run the ball and that both teams struggle a little when throwing, but the Ravens D gives them the clear edge. That's not to say that the Chiefs have a weak defense, but they're simply not the Ravens. They can both bring pressure on the quarterback and both teams have playmakers in the back end, but critically in what could prove to be a ground and pound game, the Ravens run defense has the edge. The Ravens finished the regular season as the number 5 defense against the run. The Chiefs came in at number 14. So if it turns out to be a grind 'em down style field position battle, you probably have to give Baltimore the advantage. There is hope however for the Chiefs. An early score could tempt the Ravens into throwing a little more and as we've seen this season they're pass protection still leaves something to be desired. That gives Tamba Hali the open shot he needs to get in and cause some havoc. Hali topped the AFC for sacks in the regular season with 14.5 (only DeMarcus Ware finished ahead of him in the NFC, with 15.5). Add to that the hidden effect of numerous QB hits and pressures which go largely unnoticed on the stat sheets (someone at one of the big networks needs to fix this), and you have a recipe for forcing Joe Flacco into some bad throws. The Chiefs have the people in the secondary to make Flacco pay, and so the Chiefs could be set up to pull off the next huge upset in the 2010 season Wildcard weekend. We'll see. The winner has a date lined up with the Steelers... Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles (4:30pm ET, FOX) (9:30pm GMT, Sky Sports 2) The Packers and the Eagles clash in what bizarrely many people are touting as the true NFC Championship game. I think the Falcons and Bears might have something to say about that (and the Seahawks I guess). Still though, it is a hell of a clash to be having in the wildcard weekend. Michael Vick, the NFL's golden ticket for redemption (and advertising revenues) up against Aaron Rodgers, the successor to Brett Favre. So how good are these teams? The Eagles destroyed the Redskins in a style that you would expect of a great team. They also produced the miracle at the New Meadowlands, coming back from almost certain defeat at the hands of what was a very strong Giants team (10-6 with one of the better defenses out there) to storm to victory. The Packers caliber is much more subtle. Consider that the Patriots are widely touted as the best team in the NFL right now, and that the Packers managed to run their game against the Patriots very close, all without the aid of starting QB Aaron Rodgers. 'The Pack' are also one of those rare teams that has great strength on both sides of the ball. They have a great offense that is more than capable of getting into a shootout with any team in the league. But on defense they are also pretty sound. The development of corners Tramon Williams and Sam Shields has had a huge impact for them. When you then consider that their front seven is up there among the best, easily at home alongside the Ravens and the Steelers, and you have a seriously solid all around team. Not quite the same story in Philadelphia. The Eagles have Mike Vick. They have DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy and James Harrison (don't knock the guy). But on defense it begins to get a little flimsy. While Trent Cole, Juqua Parker and Darryl Tapp form the backbone of a formidable pass rush, the Eagles have still been found wanting on the back end this season, and their rush defense has at times been very poor. All things considered I think the Packers have the edge going into this game, but as we've seen this season, not least in this wildcard weekend, anything is possible on any given Sunday. Could the X factor that is Michael Vick tip the balance? Will Aaron Rodgers simply stroll onto the field and tear apart the Eagles secondary? Maybe DeSean Jackson will have a few big run backs in the kicking game? Guess we'll all just have to grab a beer (Amaretto for me please), sit back, relax and tune in to what is proving to be one of the most intriguing seasons in recent memory. I'll be back tomorrow for a full recap.

Saturday, January 08, 2011

Wildcard Weekend (part 1)

So now we know where three teams will be headed in 2011. The Titans have confirmed Jeff Fisher will be their coach for at least another year. The Dolphins have signed Tony Sparano through 2013. Not, however, before arranging a meeting with Eric Mangini to come on board as a "consultant", cancelling a press conference along the way that would have been used to confirm Sparano as the 2011 coach of the Dolphins. The meeting with Mangini didn't go ahead in the end and Sparano has been confirmed, but the damage to the reputation of both the coach and owner has been done. Dolphins owner Stephen Ross now looks like a jackass. And he's pulled Sparano down with him, effectively sending the message to the players that "we couldn't get the guy we wanted and we couldn't find anyone else who would take the role, so we're bringing back Sparano for you. Enjoy." Of course the guy they "wanted" was Jim Harbaugh, who will now be coaching the 49ers for 2011. Harbaugh's first order of business? Quarterback. With both Alex and Troy Smith up for free agency, that leaves David Carr as the only guy signed for 2011. With Harbaughs college QB Andrew Luck staying on for another year, that means the 49ers might be looking for a trade. One option is Josh Johnson of the Buccaneers, who Harbaugh has worked with previously. I really like Johnson so you won't hear any complaints from me. The other possibility, outside of the draft of course, is a free agent. Topping that list might be Donovan McNabb who is expected to be released by the Redskins. Please Jim; don't. McNabb has done well, but he's not exactly Mr. Consistent and seems to have a real problem dealing with pressure. Please, let's just go somewhere else, with a young guy who you can mold. Please. Just before we have a look at this Saturday's wild card games, just time to point you in the direction of the latest work from NFL.com's Albert Breer. Good stuff. Now, games, which after all is what football is all about. New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks (4:30PM ET, NBC) The stage is set for an epic disappointment. Quite whose, we don't yet know. It could be the Seahawks, their hopes raised after stumbling to victory over the Rams. On the back of Mike Williams and a semi-resurgent Marshawn Lynch, the Seahawks have become the first 7-9 division champion, and the first team outside of a strike shortened season to make the playoffs with a losing record. It all looks so hopeful. It's a big achievement, especially after such miserable seasons as the Seahawks have endured in recent years (as a 49er fan I can only say one thing. Good). Maybe this is their time to shine again? Or maybe it's their time to get their dreams crushed, as the Saints roll into town and flatten their helpless and hapless opponents in a demonstration of such sheer dominance and offensive power that the French nation promptly surrender to Coach Payton before he turns on them (a bit of good ol' fashion British light hearted humour/Xenophobia/racism there). Conversely, it could be the Saints in for a shock. God knows it would be a shock to all of us if Seattle wins, but they have a few things in their favour. Last year the Saints finished the regular season with a +11 turnover differential. This year the Saints finished at -6. That's not helped by the loss of running backs Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory. The expectation now is that with the loss of his run game, Drew Brees will have to throw even more, possibly close to 50 times in this game. With Brees's recent problems with interceptions, that could be a potential gold mine waiting to be tapped for Seattle. Then we have the crowd. The noise in Qwest Field is pretty legendary, and in a playoff game there is likely to be little respite for the Saints. That throws up issues of false starts at critical moments and a breakdown of communication, especially during audibles. The Saints are used to very loud stadiums, but not when their offense is on the field. Finally; just the sheer surprise factor of the Seahawks. They have nothing to lose and everything to gain, the exact opposite of the defending champion Saints. If the Saints are too cocky it could be their downfall. Too conservative and the same applies. Meanwhile the Seahawks can dig deep into the playbook on both sides of the ball and just go all out for the win. If they crash and burn, who cares? If Seattle gets hammered 45-0 I wont batter an eye lid (just laugh. Heartily). On paper I would expect the Saints to do just that. It's not like Seahawks fans realistically expect their team to beat the Saints. And if they lose by just 3 points? That's still a loss, so all that conservative play just went out of the window for nothing. If the Seahawks just come out, have fun and let it all hang loose, who knows? I should also probably take the time right now to point out that I wont be doing picks this week, or for the rest of the season (possibly not even for the whole of next season). My regular season record was just over .500, my playoff record from last year was terrible (including 0-7 from the Divisional round onwards if I remember rightly) and just generally I find it much more enjoyable watching games when I'm not secretly cheering on one side or the other because I picked them. And that's before we get onto the issue of teams not doing as their told (Texans, Panthers, Titans etc. Hate those guys). I doubt it'll be a great loss to the world. New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts (8:00PM ET, NBC) Surprise, surprise, Rex Ryan has been writing checks with his mouth that his team potentially wont be able to cash. The way to the Super Bowl would see the Jets likely take on Peyton Manning, arguably the best QB in the league today, followed by Tom Brady, arguably the best QB in the league today, and then possibly followed by Ben Roethlisberger, arguably the best QB in the league today. That's a hell of a lot of good quarterbacks to be facing, even for the Jets defense. While they have the potential to be very solid, they've also had their fair share of struggles this season, including against the Browns, a team not noted for the wild success of its offense. Let us not forget also that all of these teams must be overcome with Mark Sanchez at the helm for the Jets offense. Now just to recap, that means Mark Sanchez versus (potentially); -- The Colts defense, which was already good and has only got better lately. The Colts D gave up the highest percentage of passes completed in the regular season, but were in the top half of the table for least passing yards allowed. This is also a defense that gave up less touchdowns than the Jets. -- The Patriots defense, which gave up one more TD than the Jets D (25 to 24), but recorded over double the number of interceptions (25 to 12). -- The Steelers defense, which; conceded the second least yards per game (behind the Chargers), the least total points (232 compared to the Jets 304), the least points per game (14.5), conceded the second least (tied) percentage of 3rd down conversions (32%), recorded the most sacks (48), gave up less touchdowns (15) than it had interceptions (21), and gave up the fewest rushing yards (1,004) which was about 437 yards better than the second placed team (Chicago). In other words, it's going to be bloody hard for the Jets to make a dent in a very strong playoff group. The added pressure of Rex Ryan telling the world that he doesn't think Brady works as hard as Manning or can cope as well without his coaches as Manning, only helps to set up a great (and embarrassing) down fall in the divisional round. That's providing of course that they can topple the Colts. That would be the Indianapolis Colts who struggled at times, especially in the middle of the season, but otherwise did very well for themselves. Despite the hiccups, the Colts offense still finished with the 4th most points in the regular season and picked up more first downs per game than any other team. In particular Manning and the Colts love games like this. Racking up the points on offense entices the opposing side into a shoot out. That's where Freeney and Mathis come in. If the back end can hold up long enough (helped dramatically by playing less experienced QB's like Sanchez) that opens the door for a furious pass rush. When your rushing attack stinks, as the Jets has lately, that only increases your appearance of one dimensionality further. The Jets have fought and battled at times and somehow came through with the record that they did. If they want to go any further, it's going to take a tremendous effort. All I know is it's going to be a hell of a lot of fun to watch! Tomorrow I'll be back to recap the Saturday action and to look forward to Sunday's game.

Monday, January 11, 2010

Wildcard weekend Sunday round up

NFC - Packers 45 @ Cardinals 51 -- Let's get two things straight right off the bat. #1, the Packers have only themselves to blame for their turnovers, one of which ultimately cost them the game. #2 This was probably one of the most exciting games of football in recent memory. And now the rant can begin. 'Cos this was also the biggest joke in footballing history, an abomination that brings the otherwise excellent reputation (deserved) of the NFL officiating into disrepute. Simply put, the Packers were robbed. On both TD passes to Larry Fitzgerald, Packers CB Charles Woodson was unceremoniously knocked to the ground. This was more than interference, it was downright blatant cheating. It's surely no coincidence that the twice victim of this tactic is also considered (and rightly so) to be the Packers best defensive back. Then just to add insult to injury, on the second TD there was a call for roughing the passer.... despite the contact beginning prior to the release of the ball This just shocked me when I saw it. The NFL has a reputation for being a pass friendly/offense friendly league. But this took it to far. If a defensive player makes contact with a receiver beyond 5 yards from the LOS then they get called for illegal contact downfield. So how in the hell can they compete when receivers are slamming them to the ground? Honestly, this is just disgusting. I've ranted before about how 'pick' or 'rub' plays are supposed to be illegal and yet go completely unnoticed (Colts, Cardinals, in particular), but this truly was the icing on the cake. I'd like to talk about the Cardinals QB Kurt Warner and his amazing achievement of going 29/33 for 379 yards and 5 TDs. But I can't. To do so would dishonour the Packers defense who were robbed on two plays that resulted in 14 points. Without them, the Cardinals would be going home. I'm just still in shock. To give you an idea of how annoyed I am, think about this. All season long I've had it in for the Saints. They're over rated and make a living off of hype. But next weekend, I hope they pound the Cardinals into the floor. That's how badly I want the Cardinals to lose now. If Arizona makes the Superbowl, it'll be nothing more than a sick joke. On a more positive note, if Green Bay can keep their players and coaches in place for next season, they're going to be a seriously dangerous team. AFC - Ravens 33 @ Patriots 14 -- 10 passes. That's all Joe Flacco threw. Yet contrary to popular opinion (in the NFL & among 'spread' lovers) throwing that little doesn't mean you're guaranteed to lose. In fact, that probably guaranteed the Ravens victory. Rice and McGahee shared no less than 42 carries between them, chalking a combined 221 yards and 3 TDs. Compare that to Tom Brady's stats; 23/42, 154 yards, 2 TDs & 3 INTs. The fact is, the Patriots got taken apart. Even though Flacco threw a pick (yeah, on only 10 passes!), by keeping the ball out of his hands the Ravens reduced turnovers and controlled the ball, keeping it away from the potentially explosive Pats. And with the Ravens scoring three TDs and a FG in the 1st quarter, the Patriots were doomed to try and pass to catch up, along with the turnovers that normally go hand in hand with such a prolonged endeavour. Ah well, at least I got my pick right! So that's 3/4 pick wise this week. If it wasn't for some appalling refereeing, I'd be 4/4 so I'm happy. And now we have the fixtures set for the divisional round, as the Cardinals travel to the Saints (NFC) and the Ravens travel to the Colts (AFC) on Saturday, and on Sunday, the Vikings play host to the Cowboys (NFC) and the Chargers welcome the Jets (AFC). Should be four pretty good games. Later in the week I'll talk about momentum and on Friday I'll share my picks for the weekends action.

Sunday, January 10, 2010

Wildcard weekend Saturday round up

NFC - Eagles 14 @ Cowboys 34 -- It's been 14 years but it was worth the wait. The Cowboys finally break their miserable streak and win a post season game. And what a win. The score looks impressive, but even that doesn't do it justice. The Cowboys chalked up 10 more first downs than the Eagles and given the explosiveness of the Cowboys in this game, that's saying something. They executed in all facets of the game and the Eagles didn't. Compare the 3rd down totals for example. Eagles 2/11 (18%), Cowboys 9/16 (56%). As predicted, the Eagles abandoned the run. McCoy and Weaver shared the prize for most carries on their team with 5 each. That's pathetic. The end result is a one dimensional offense that modern defensive co-ordinators have little trouble dealing with. They can dial up the pressure and let their pass rush loose, safe in the knowledge that gap soundness can be relaxed just a touch. The result was four sacks and not a lot of offense from Philadelphia. Their best play was when Michael Vick entered the game and on his first throw he sent a laser pass to Jeremy Maclin, who took it 76 yards for a TD and the longest play in Eagles post season history. And it was a laser. Whatever Vick lost while he was incarcerated, he's gradually getting it back. Next year is going to be a good year for him. Meanwhile, Tony Romo was going wild with 23/35 for 244 yards and 2 TDs. But the real star was Felix Jones. 16 carries for 148 yards and a TD, including a 73 yard dash that is now the longest run in Cowboys post season history. He also made one catch, for 30 yards, which involved tearing off down the sideline at break neck speed before vaulting a poor excuse for a tackle and then tippy toeing a few more yards until he finally went out of bounds. It was, as Sterling Sharpe is fond of saying, 'a thing of beauty'. And so was my pick! AFC - Jets 24 @ Bengals 14 -- Ask yourself a question. Knowing that your opposition for the next game a) has the best (and the only true shutdown) cornerback in the league & b) is very fond of exotic blitzes, and bearing in mind that you have three very good running backs and an O-line that is pretty dominant, would you prefer to run the ball a lot or pass it a lot? If you said pass then you can read the mind of the Bengals coaching staff. And you're also an idiot. The Bengals went 18/36 for 146 yards, 1 TD and 1 Int. They have a perfectly good (possibly even exceptional) 3 man rushing attack and their O-line has man handled people in the run game all year. Yet they are now out of the post season due to their inexplicable desire to be ranked among the more pass happy teams of the pass happy NFL. The Jets are the opposite. You get the feeling that their Head Coach Rex Ryan doesn't care whether it's pretty or not, a win is a win. And that's what they got. It was ugly, brutal, down in the trenches football (love it!) and it did indeed get them a win. Sanchez attempted just 15 passes (less than half as many as Palmer), but he completed 12 and clocked 182 yards (36 more than Palmer) for a TD and crucially, no INT. And as the Bengals stuck doggedly to one back, despite having two others to spare, the Jets shared the wealth between Shonne Greene (21 carries, 135 yards, 1 TD) and Thomas Jones (15 carries, 34 yards, 1 TD). The result was a bruising ground game that went hard for 60 minutes and set up some great play action for Sanchez to exploit. Throw in three sacks for the Jets (to the Bengals 0) plus a forced fumble and an interception for Darrelle Revis, who held Chad Ochocinco to just 2 catches for 28 yards, and you have yourself a recipe for a playoff win. The Jets advance and rightly so. They were the better team, with the better gameplan, and they've earned every last bit of praise that they'll receive in the run up to their next game. Including my thanks for making it 2 out of 2 for my Saturday picks!

Saturday, January 09, 2010

Wildcard weekend picks

The time is nearly upon us. The Great prize of the NFL, the SuperBowl, looms ever closer. But even getting there is a challenge in its own right. This week we see 8 teams do battle in the wildcard round and here's my picks: Saturday: NFC - Eagles @ Cowboys -- It's been tough for the Eagles lately, especially against the Cowboys. Their perennial problem of throwing too much reared its ugly head again last week. They just don't seem to have any confidence in the running backs to earn them solid gains on a consistent basis. Which is a shame, because they have Brian Westbrook, LeSean McCoy, and fullback Leonard Weaver. And that's pretty much a perfect 'West Coast Offense' backfield. Weaver has already shown he can run and pass, so the fact that they under utilize him always seems very odd. Conversely the Cowboys have had a pretty good season. They've banished their December winning woes (at least for one season) and have the luxury of both a versatile attack and a dogged defense. DeMarcus Ware and Jay Ratliff spearhead an awesome unit that seems to get stronger every week. Meanwhile Tony Romo is finding his groove with number one wideout Miles Austin, and he still has Jason Witten and Patrick Crayton as two very reliable second editions. Throw in the three headed rushing monster (Barber, Choice, Jones) and the Cowboys have a huge shout of winning their first post season game since 1996. Given the balance of tools and talent, I think the Cowboys have the edge. Cowboys win. AFC - Jets @ Bengals -- Last Sunday was a massacre. Watching it on TV, I cringed everytime the Bengals offense stepped out onto the field. It was poor. The Receivers couldn't catch, the QB had no time to throw and the O-line was generating zero pressure in the run game. The Jets were a complete contrast. When they took shots down the field, Sanchez had plenty of time. Ok, so the receiving corps didn't exactly cover itself in glory. But the O-line certainly did. They man handled the Bengals D like they were little schoolgirls, chucking them aside at will. If that had been a boxing match, it would have been over by half time. Even if the Bengals hadn't gone down, the ref would have called it. There are only two possible explanations. 1) The Bengals were being cunning, playing poorly to give the opposition a false sense of security and saving their strength and killer tactics for this match, in the knowledge it would be likely to happen, or 2) they just weren't as good as the Jets. I'm pretty much leaning towards 2. It was truly horrific. If the Bengals play like that again this week then they're done. I think it might be a tighter game, but not tight enough for Cincinnati. Jets win. Sunday: NFC - Packers @ Cardinals -- Coming into the playoffs last year, nobody was backing Arizona. Everyone (except maybe Rod Woodson) thought that Arizona were going to be one and done. In the end they went to the Superbowl and only narrowly missed taking home the Lombardi Trophy. So, are they being taken more seriously this year? Erm, actually no. Why? Maybe because their first game this year is against the Packers, who just happen to be on a fantastic run of form and are hotly tipped by some (including me) to make it to the big game themselves. It's a teaser this one. The Cardinals can be a great team both passing and rushing, and their defense is pretty darn good as well. They have playmakers all over the place. But they'll be missing Anquan Boldin and that's a big blow for them offensively. The Packers meanwhile have just as many tools on both sides of the ball. They have arguably the best complete receiving corps in the NFL, their run game has flourished of late, and their defense has settled into the 3-4 scheme. Charles Woodson in particular is a highly capable player who somehow finds himself all over the field making tackles, breaking up passes and forcing turnovers. This game should be a real classic and the winner will have to be taken seriously as a Superbowl contender. And I think that's going to be the Packers. Packers win. AFC - Ravens @ Patriots -- Ugh. With the Colts and the Chargers lying in wait and the winner of the Jets/Bengals game having to pull out all the stops to win, this match has all the makings of a sideshow, just a warm up for football fans. Neither of these teams has excelled this season and few people expect the winner of this one to change that mindset. They just both lack consistency. The Patriots have it worse, as their Mr. Consistency this year, Wes Welker, is now injured. For the Ravens, it's been Ray Rice. What's probably more surprising though is that both teams would normally be much vaunted for their respective defenses. This year, they're laughed at in this area. Some would say that even the Patriots Head Coach doesn't trust his D. And he has a reasonable cause not to. On the opposite side of the field, the once feared Ravens D has shown little of the toughness and ball hawking ability that made it so fearsome. It's been more like a sedate pussy cat than some raging lion this year. And honestly, I don't know where to go with my pick. I like the match up of the Pats O versus the Ravens secondary, but I also like the Ravens rushing attack against the Pats anaemic run defense. Ultimately I think the Pats will struggle more than the Ravens to make crucial first downs. I'm going with the Ravens. Ravens win.