AFC East 2011 Prospects

After the thumb screw-esque exercise that is the NFL Networks coverage of the combine, it's time to pick up where we left off by examining the potential future in 2011 for the teams of the NFL. And we've reached the AFC East. Buffalo Bills: The Bills eh? 2010 could have been worse. They could be picking number 1 overall in April. As it is they've been pushed into 3rd place after finishing 4-12. But the reality is that the Bills were probably one of the best teams to lose at least 10 games. That's kind of like coming first in a shit eating contest, but hey, first place is first place. A number of Bills players stepped up to the plate (are baseball analogy's allowed in a football post?), including QB Ryan Fitzpatrick who surprised many with his confidence and at times very good play. Is he the future of the Bills? That's maybe a more touchy question. Thankfully for the Bills though, most of those who contributed in 2010 will be back for sure in 2011. They're one of the teams to do quite well out of free agency this year. But it's not all sweetness and light. Akin Ayodele, Keith Ellison and Paul Posluszny will all potentially go walk abouts at Linebacker. The loss of Posluszny would be particularly hard to bear, as he really is a high quality linebacker playing on an otherwise crappy D. The loss of SS Donte Whitner might be a little easier to handle, but certainly the loss of CB Drayton Florence will have an impact. Florence is one of those players who you just know will never get the credit he deserves, which could potentially translate into a return to the Bills for 2011. So what about the draft? As mentioned earlier, the Bills pick at number 3 and it's time for them to make the big decision; How much do they like Ryan Fitzpatrick? Sitting at three they will probably get the first shot at a QB, unless the Panthers are feeling bold. There are plenty of choices out there. But picking up another QB that early wastes a pick that could otherwise be used to bring their defense up to par. While the offensive line and wide receiver positions do need an upgrade, I just think that the Bills would be better off going either defensive line (where they're woefully under manned) or for a corner. Chances are that both Patrick Peterson and Prince Amukamara will be there if they're willing to take the early shot on a skill position. All in all, the Bills might actually get their act together this year. I know I say this all the time about a lot of teams, but they're one good draft away from being reasonably competitive. A focus on defense in the off season combined with another good year from Ryan Fitzpatrick could see the Bills fighting for a wildcard spot. Jesus, did I really just say that? Miami Dolphins: What happened to the Dolphins? The addition of guys like Brandon Marshall and Karlos Dansby was supposed to elevate the Dolphins into prime position to challenge the Jets and Patriots for division glory. But instead the bottom fell out of the boat and although they finished 7-9, it was a struggle. It could get nasty in 2011. Kory Sheets and Lex Hilliard are both up for exclusive rights free agency (essentially sign or retire). FB Lousaka Polite will still be around, but that's 3 running backs, none of whom is considered a starter. All the others are off into the murky waters of unrestricted free agency. That's Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams and the under rated, under appreciated, Patrick Cobbs. Losing those three will be big. As indeed might be the loss of Tyler Thigpen and Chad Pennington. With the struggles of Chad Henne smothering the back pages of the papers in Miami throughout the 2010 season, Thigpen and Pennington may be more valuable to the Dolphins than many realise. So where does that leave the Dolphins draft strategy? Picking at number 15 it might be a running back or guard, but my guess is the Dolphins will be looking for a D-linemen to supplement their high quality linebacking corps. Cameron Wake may have done the 'phins proud in 2010, but one player can't do it all alone. The Dolphins could really use some help up front to ease the pressure. As for their 2011 outlook? I think the Dolphins are one of those teams sitting on a knife edge. If their draft goes pretty well and maybe they do some work in free agency, they could challenge for the AFC East. But draft poorly and/or fail to find the right guys in the draft, and the Dolphins will drop like a lead balloon. Much rests on the shoulders of Chad Henne and new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. New England Patriots: By virtue of "E" before "Y", we now head up north and a little more to the east to join the Patriots. God help us. I still have unresolved Patriots issues, like their blatant use of 'pick/rub' plays and the way that TV analysts then describe them as being 'legal pick/rub plays'. How can you have a legal pick/rub? A pick or rub is illegal by definition, otherwise it would just be a 'play'. But now I'm getting diverted. So after a stellar regular season that came crashing down around their ears in the playoffs, what do the Patriots have to look forward to in free agency? Well, guard Logan Mankins has had his butt franchised. That then leaves the small matter of RB Kevin Faulk, OT Matt Light, FB Sammy Morris and RB Fred Taylor as the major potential departures. Which in comparison to a lot of teams is quite light, (The Saints for example. Haha! Wankers). And as you can probably imagine, given that this is a Bill Belichick team, the overall roster is looking in pretty good shape heading into a draft in which Patriots will pick 18th. And 28th. And then twice again in the next round. And etc... Given the relative high quality of the Patriots team, don't be surprised to see them trade down, down, further down, and a little bit more down. I imagine there will be more than a few picks that are traded away into next year, as Bill Belichick continues to hoard draft picks like a survivalist hoards tins of canned beef. If Belichick does decide to cash in a first round pick, it'll probably be at either wide receiver, running back or offensive line. If a guy like Rodney Hudson is till kicking about, Belichick is smart enough to pull the trigger. As for 2011? Who knows with the Patriots. Like the Colts they seem to breeze through some games that looked like tough contests on paper, only to struggle against comparatively weaker foes (like the Browns). There really is no reason why this Patriots team can't make a run for the Super Bowl. At the very least I would expect them to make the playoffs. Again. New York Jets: Who didn't want to see the Jets fail in the AFC Championship game? Apart from Rex Ryan of course. And the Jets fans. And the Jets players. And the Jets ownership and back room staff. But other than those few people, who didn't want to see the Jets fail? Well they did. Despite all the hype about winning a Super Bowl, once again the Jets failed to do it. Now normally you would look at two consecutive appearances in a championship game and applaud the team in question, especially given that in the first year they had a rookie QB and in the second he still hadn't improved a huge deal. But that's where Rex Ryan and the Jets go astray. It would have been a great achievement, had they not all spent the entire season blowing their own trumpet about how they were the best team in football and were going to win the big one. Definitely in 2010. Oops, maybe not. Well, Rex is now saying that 2011 will be the season. Forgive me for being a little sceptical. Especially when I look at the list of free agents. Oh dear. Kellen Clemens may not be a star QB, but at least he served as a reasonable back up to "Shaky Sanchez" (trademark). That's one plan B that the Jets probably wont be falling back on. Then we have Drew Coleman and Antonio Cromartie on their way out, unless the Jets can stump up some serious cash. Given that they've basically hailed their receiving corps as the priority, it looks unlikely that Cromartie will return. Braylon Edwards, Santonio Holmes and Brad Smith (you know, the wildcat guy) are the three receivers headed to free agency. Holmes is apparently the priority, with Edwards - for some unknown bonkers reason - as the number two. That means bye, bye Smith, who would make a nice little addition for teams looking to mix up their offense a little. Defensive Ends Shaun Ellis and Trevor Pryce are also on the way out, accompanied by safety Brodney Pool and kicker Nick Folk to round up the list of names you might have heard of. That leaves the Jets in a so-so position headed into the draft. Not picking until number 30 overall, they could probably use a new running back, they need more receivers like I need more cash (i.e. badly), they basically have now one proper offensive tackle (yeah, one), and their safety and corner line up doesn't look great either. My guess is that the offensive line will take priority, given Rex's desire to "ground and pound". But honestly the Jets don't look in great shape, and picking at number 30 in each round is hardly the best way to attract valuable suitors for your picks. Will 2011 bring that allusive championship ring then? Don't bet on it. The Jets can still turn things around with some free agency magic and savvy drafting, but that's asking a lot. Honestly, I feel like the Jets under Rex Ryan might just have ridden the last of their luck and hype. Having soared as high as they have over the last two years, it's time I think for Jets fans to now brace themselves for the down cycle. It's only natural. That's how football rolls sometimes. It ebbs and flows. The key thing for the Jets is to keep their eyes firmly peeled on the future and not get carried away just because 2011 might be a difficult ride.

Conference Championship round up

Time to look back at Sunday's games: Green Bay Packers 21 @ Chicago Bears 14 One day Jay Cutler is going to look back on this game and regret not just forcing his way onto the field, even if it meant fighting people off to do it. Because the Internet, the media and much of Chicago has gone into freaking meltdown with Cutler hate. For those who don't know why yet, it's all to do with his knee. As I write this, we still have no idea what precisely is wrong. All that's known is that it's something knee related. Very helpful as you can see. But it's not so much the fact that he injured said knee as the fact that he didn't finish the game. An early appearance for the second half was cut short and Todd Collins came in to replace him. That's when the world blew up. Players current and former have been hitting Twitter and pretty much every other outlet they can to denounce Cutler, questioning his toughness and making a point about big time players playing in big time games, citing numerous examples from footballing lore. Two of the more hilarious (not intentionally) were Maurice Jones-Drew and Deion Sanders. That being the same Jones-Drew who missed his teams last two games of the season through injury when the Jaguars were still in with a shout of winning the division, and the same Deion Sanders who was just as famous for making "business decisions" when it came to tackling as he was for making big plays against the pass. But I digress. Collins threw four passes and didn't complete a single one. Added to Cutlers 6/14 for 80 yards and things did not look good for the Bears as the Packers raced off to 14-0 lead. But then Lovie Smith had seen enough of Collins and rolled out his secret weapon; Caleb Haine!!!! The third year quarterback had probably taken as many snaps with the Bears first team in this past week as Barack Obama. Yet he came and rallied the troops with 13/20 for 153 yards and a TD, as well as helping the Bears to drive for a TD by Chester Taylor. Unfortunately he also threw two interceptions, but his contribution can't be denied. Based on that showing, had he played since snap one you have to feel, no joke, that the Bears probably would have done a lot better. Chicago fans seem to think so to, as an emerging number of fan photos appear with Cutler's jersey's being set on fire. If this was Philadelphia fans doing this, the fans would already be coming under fire for being too harsh and the media to critical, but I guess it's ok in Chicago. Maybe the rule is if the city you live in has a strong connection to the current President then it's all good. I dunno. Anyway, the Packers got the job done, but not without some trials of their own. Aaron Rodgers was an uncharacteristic 17/30 for 244 yards with 2 interceptions. But 7 carries for 39 yards and a TD made a big impact, as did rookie running back James Starks who carried 22 times for 74 yards and a TD. The third came from a B.J. Raji pick 6. Yes, B.J.Raji got an interception... and then ran it back 18 yards for a TD. Other notable defensive performances for the Packers were Cullen Jenkins, who shared a sack with Clay Matthews, as well as recording two tackles for loss and 2 quarterback hits, and also rookie corner Sam Shields who had a sack, 2 interceptions and a forced fumble. The Bears D just couldn't match up. LB Brian Urlacher (who would later jump to Cutlers defense over the injury/toughness situation) recorded the Bears sole sack, along with 2 tackles for loss, a QB hit, an interception and a pass defended. But one man a defense doesn't maketh (or something along those lines). The Bears played well, but their inability to get to Aaron Rodgers or even at times just contain him cost them dearly. In retrospect the Bears put up a good fight. They ended up losing only by seven points with their third string QB on the field. I know people don't like to hear these things and often find its hard to take solace from a championship game loss, but I'm a realist. Given the expectations of this Bears team in week 1, this has been a hell of a positive season for them. They should be optimistic next year, especially as Cutler and co. will have had a full season to assimilate Mike Martz's system. Just as long as they can convince Martz to run the ball a little more in 2011, with Chester Taylor and Matt Forte forming a solid duo. And convince him not to run end around plays on critical third downs. For the Packers it's off to a Super Bowl which they have a solid chance of winning. However as I understand it they're currently the bookmakers favourites to win it all, which I find rather confusing given the team they're up against. Speaking of which. New York Jets 19 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Finally, thank you God!! I respect Rex Ryan for his coaching ability. People tend to think of Ryan as a loudmouth braggart who lacks the fine grasp of tactics that we expect from guys like Belichick. But that's simply wrong. In fact, it couldn't be more wrong. Ryan is probably the most clever and skillful strategist and tactician in the league today, as well as being a very strong technical coach. But I do wish he and his players would shut the f**k up. Well, hopefully he will now as the Jets came up short in the AFC Championship game for the second season running. With the promise of a Super Bowl or bust on the table, it looks like Rex had a pair of Kings and then suddenly pulled out a Jack. All the hype, all the talk etc, all for nothing in 2010. Well, I say nothing. Reaching the AFC Championship two seasons in a row is nothing to be scoffed at. What it tells us is that either the Jets are incredibly talented, or Ryan and his staff just have a knack for squeezing out every last drop from the players. Or they got extremely lucky. I guess we can't really put our finger on any single reason. Like most teams that make it this far, all three of the above is true to varying degrees. Certainly the offense had expended whatever luck it might have previously had. For the entire first half they rustled up just a single field goal. Sanchez finished the game 20/33 for 233 yards and 2 TD's, but for the first half he was a mere 7/15 for 63 yards and having been sacked twice. Thus the Sanchez carousel goes around once more, leaving him in the odd spot of being probably the worst QB to ever win four road playoff games. One more win and he sets a new record. A new all time record for most road wins in the playoffs. How? There was another QB in this game though who's also pretty handy at winning playoff games, that being Ben Roethlisberger. He finished a paltry 10/19 for 133 yards and 2 interceptions, but it mattered little as the Steelers took a 24-3 halftime lead largely off the back of a strong running game and a strong defense, aka - Steeler football. Rashard Mendenhall carried the ball 27 times in all for 121 yards and a TD. Roethlisberger himself added another 21 yards and a TD on 11 carries. But the Jets defense didn't exactly go down without a fight. They collectively picked up 2 sacks, 7 tackles for loss, 2 QB hits, 2 interceptions and 5 passes defended. But the Steelers first half defensive dominance paid dividends. As a group they put up a total game tally of 2 sacks, 4 tackles for loss, 4 QB hits, 4 passes defended and a forced fumble which was returned 19 yards for a TD by CB William Gay. The Jets nearly came back into this one but it was too little, too late for the New Yorkers. I can picture Rodger Goodell now crying into his champagne when it finally sinks in that a) there will be no team from New York, the biggest media consumption market, in the Super Bowl and b) the Steelers, who he seems to hate so much, will be there. And Pittsburgh has earned this. They've played dominating defense for almost the whole season. On offense they've adapted to fit in their rookie wide receivers and they've coped with missing Roethlisberger for the first 4 games. It's been a struggle at times, but credit where it is due, they really have pulled through so far. Personally I consider them the favourites going into Dallas, not the Packers. Which of course now means that we have two weeks to just sit around and stew waiting for the big game to come along. I smell some rest time coming for myself. Of course by rest time I mean that I'm going to spend less time blogging and more of the next two weeks furiously studying game clips of the 2011 draft class. Which now brings me around nicely to my moan for the day. I didn't get to see the East-West Shrine game. I thus then logged onto NFL.com for some highlights, bearing in mind that the NFL network had the coverage. What I found was this sh*t-tastic 49 second clip. I mean seriously? 49 seconds? (actually I lie, it was 42) And I had to watch a 30 second advert just to get to the video. That's ridiculous. It would appear also that a fair number of the commenter's for the video agree too. It just stuns me that the NFL can be so damn stingy with things like this. It's almost like they don't want fans to watch football. If anyone from that network or that site happens to stumble across this blog, perhaps part of the censorship division on the look out for people who disagree with that ass hat Goodell, then for Christ's sake sort your crappy video service out. It might even help you to "grow the game" a little.

There's a subliminal message in there somewhere. I don't know why, I just keep getting this image in my head...

So basically I've been pretty busy and as a result my blog has backed up. Well now I've finally found the time to put pen to paper (or finger to keyboard) and the result is a mammoth post. So, coming up (I should really do this as a TV show); - Bad news for Detroit fans, - Evidence that advertising executives might be f**king over paid, - Understanding the value of Big Ben Roethlisberger, - A follow up on the other days post about momentum/psychology, - Why Falcons coach Mike Smith should trust his own instincts more, - A look ahead at both of the weekends Conference Championship games, It looks like a lot less when put into a list. I can assure you it was a bitch to write, consuming many hours/cups of coffee. On that note, time to unashamedly plug the blog and try to boost pageviews by encouraging all readers to spread the word. Tell your friends. Tell your family. Tell your co-workers. Stick the address on your Facebook page. Kidnap your next door neighbours dog and spray paint the URL on it.... no seriously, don't do that. Put the can down. Let go of the dog. Slowly now (but do put the url on your Facebook). Anyway, dog-knapping aside, let's start with the Lions and that bit of bad news. It's Matthew Stafford again. He's now had surgery again on his throwing shoulder after separating said shoulder twice this past season. Recovery time is estimated in the four month region, which should see Stafford back in action by the time mini camps roll around (providing the labor situation has been resolved). But it's another blow for Stafford and the Lions. Injuries don't help in the first place, but repeated surgeries don't help much either. If you can heal naturally, that's usually the best, but it's not always an option. There's honestly not a lot else that the Lions can do but cross their fingers and hope that it all works out ok. It's shame though. Chances are that the cumulative effect of the injuries and surgeries in such a short span will seriously impede his future development and that means the Lions just potentially blew $41 million guaranteed on a kid who has now played a grand total of 13 games in his two year career. Now, I've long been a believer that in the modern world there are a hell of a lot of people who are over paid for what they bring to the table, including a large number of football players. No more is this the case than in advertising, given that most people are driven nuts by adverts as opposed to listening intently to them. Specifically I want to turn my wagging finger of doom on Internet Advertisers, who seem incapable of adapting to the demands of the medium. Take this post for example, from Mashable.com, circa April '09. Basically predicting the mass rise of pre-video ads on YouTube, what's most interesting to me is the comments section. There are a few of the ever useful "well, they have to make money somehow comments," that don't exactly carry the argument on a lot. But what stands out most are three things; 1) The complaints about the ratio of video length to advert length, 2) The suggested effect this has on viewers, 3) The suggested solutions to the problem, The first one just makes me laugh in mild despair, because people are complaining about having to sit through a 30 second advert just to watch 2 or 3 minutes of video. These people should try watching videos on NFL.com, where a 30 second commercial will be casually slipped in between every other video, even if those videos only happen to last less than the actual advert. Catching up on the game highlights of the games you missed is a nightmare, especially if the combined sound of Steve Mariucci and Deion Sanders forces you to avoid any video labelled "NFL Gameday Highlights". And the autostart function when you first switch to the highlights section = pure, uncapped anger and annoyance. Which brings me to number 2, the effect on viewers. Guess what happens when an advert comes on now? Do I sit and watch it? Hell no!! I hit the rather handy mute button on my keyboard and simply flick to another open tab to find something else to do for 30 seconds. Just at a pure freaking guess, I imagine that probably 95% of the rest of the viewers does the same. One thing we know for certain is that people get driven nuts simply by the mere thought of having to watch a 30 second ad in between two 30 second highlight clips. So why haven't advertisers adapted? Surely all these highly paid ad men are right there at the cutting edge of modern technology trends? Surely they have their target markets by the balls and are skillfully milking them for every last purchase (erm, that was perhaps a poorly chosen analogy)? But no. It would appear not. What's truly interesting then about the comments section of the above mentioned post is that the answer to the problem crops up multiple times; short adverts. 5 seconds. Maybe 10 seconds at a push. Those commenter's who suggest this are hitting the proverbial nail on the proverbial head. This is exactly what the Internet advertising medium needs. Short, sharp adverts that get the point across and/or highlight the brand before the viewer even has time to look away. Think about it for a second. What can you usefully do in five seconds? What about ten? Answer; Jack Sh*t. But 30 seconds? That's more than enough time for me to hit the mute button, open a new tab and piss off to Hotmail quickly to have a look, or to hit up Facebook and see what my friends have been up to lately (like posting the URL of my blog on their profiles. Hint, hint. Nudge. Hint). So this is my rallying cry, my call to all companies that want to get some actual value out of their adverts; pick up the phone. Call your advertising agency. Tell them you want all your Internet video ads cut to 10 seconds or less. And please tell them to specify only one ad per three videos. Remember, it's about quality, not quantity. Grab our attention, don't bore us to death and make us resent you. Also, if you're reading this and happen to be the head of a top marketing agency then may I first praise you for your excellent choice in blogs (did you follow a link from Facebook by any chance?) then highly recommend that you fire anyone in your company who's earning over $50,00o per year while still churning out 30 second ads for your clients online campaigns. But don't fire Big Ben Roethlisberger!! (See that segue? As slick as a bone dry shower mat). I mean it though. I've said before that love or hate Roethlisberger, the guy can flat out play. He's a serious tough guy, he's hard to bring down in the pocket, keeps plays alive long after they should have died, makes good decisions in the critical moments of games and most importantly; he's a leader. Don't believe me? Check out this video from NFL.com (enjoy the advert by the way). What you see is the hidden value of guys like Ben Roethlisberger. Calming people down when they get too excited. Lifting them up when they get down. But perhaps most importantly serving as the coach among the players, helping the staff to reinforce a team first, team focused message. As divisive as they may be in the public arena and among some fans, it's players like Roethlisberger and Hines Ward who have helped the Steelers to seamlessly integrate many of their rookies into the first team, which allows them to keep rolling year after year, despite a fairly equal turnover in personnel when compared to other NFL teams. I also want to take the opportunity to call on another of NFL.com's videos, this one to be precise. This is going to serve two purposes. Firstly, as an addition to the post I did the other day on momentum/psychology etc, I want you to watch the video and pay close attention to the Packers players. Look at their body language and demeanor. Listen to their voices, and pay as much attention to how they're saying things as to what they're actually saying. What we see is a progressive rise in apparent confidence as the game progresses. Maybe it's just me. Maybe I'm one of the few people who are interested by this kind of thing. But what I see is a fairly clear sign of how repeated success builds the psychological momentum for the Packers players to the point where they almost appear to be playing for fun rather than in a stressful divisional round playoff game against a number one seeded team. The other thing that caught my eye (or rather, ear) watching this video was the moment right before half time when Mike Smith calls for a field goal with 10 seconds left on the clock. His experience and knowledge says "go get the three points before the half and bring this one in close". What happens next is a disaster. Although we can't hear who it is, someone obviously says to Smith that they'd like to take another offensive play and get more yards for the field goal shot, to which Smith fatefully (but to my ears reluctantly) agrees. He makes sure to emphasise the point about throwing the ball out of bounds if it's not there and again re-emphasises the need for the field goal, being a veteran enough coach to understand how valuable those three points can be right before the half. Instead he ends up with a pick returned for a TD and instead of going into the tunnel potentially at 17-21, or even failing the field goal attempt 14-21, the Falcons go in facing a 28-14 deficit with their QB having the wind knocked out of his sails somewhat. What is it I've been saying a lot on this blog lately? "Know Thyself" Smith knew. He knew because of almost thirty years of experience as a coach in one role or another. He knew how much that field goal meant and when you see him throw down his gameplan you can just tell that he realises what has just happened, what a hole his team has just found itself in. Watching Tramon Williams run back that pick for a TD Smith must have been thinking "why didn't I just take the field goal?". And he would have been right 10/10. Trust your judgement Mike. And "Know Thyself"! Right, Conference Championship preview time! Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears Only the second time these two have met in the postseason? Really? Well they picked a hell of a year to match up again! Both teams have had their ups and downs and now it's time to settle an old score. At least until next season. Now, outside of their obvious rivalry is the contrasting light in which these two teams were held prior to the season. The Packers were headed for the Super Bowl we all said. The Bears were not. I for one had the Bears pegged for defeat in Week 1. And 2. And 3. I saw them taking an epic nosedive that would have made any WW2 Dauntless pilot sweat with it's acuteness. But they didn't. The Bears instead scratched and clawed and maybe rode their luck a little on their way to the 2010 NFC North title. For that I have to take my hat off to them. That includes Julius Peppers as well. When the Bears splashed out in free agency for Peppers I thought it might have just sealed their fate. My suspicion was that with the cash in the bag, and given the reports about Peppers coming out of Carolina, that he might just roll into work and do enough to keep everyone sweet without really pushing the boundaries. I was wrong. Peppers has been just the tonic for the Bears D-line. Positioned opposite the annoyingly hard to spell Israel Idonije, Peppers has spent more time in the oppositions backfield than some of their own quarterbacks, wreaking havoc along the way. With solid play from the Bears linebacking corps and sufficient play from the secondary, Chicago has turned itself into a contender. Of course the play of Jay Cutler has helped as well. At first it seemed like a lost cause. Cutler struggled and Mike Martz seemed to be determined to roast him over his own personal spit, throwing in pass play after pass play. Cutler was repeatedly dropping back and staring into the teeth of doom as team after team found it's pass rush swarming home. The culmination had to be the "9 sacks in one half" performance against the Giants. But the Bears still found ways to win games. Somehow, I'm still not really sure how, they managed to hang in there and keep fighting. They managed to win games still, even despite Cutler. Then along the way someone presumably pulled Mike Martz to one side and quietly whispered into his ear; "what the f**k are you doing to my QB?". From that point onwards, the Bears offense has undergone a mini-revival. Cutler actually looks like all the hype we've been hearing for the last few years. He throws more accurately now. He makes much, much better decisions. His O-line doesn't have to block for 40 seconds to stop him getting sacked. The Bears even run the ball more now and they're even half decent at it! So having built Chicago up to such levels, the task of beating them now seems insurmountable. Well, not quite. It is going to take a pretty handy performance to pull it off though. Enter then, the Green Bay Packers. If anyone can do it, the Pack can. Can't they? This is the Green Bay Packers who everybody thought would sweep the NFC North and ride to the Super Bowl in a blaze of glory. When I say everyone I of course exclude the more delusional section of the Vikings fan base, but if you can't bash a division rival then who can you bash? Moving on, the Packers ended up not living up to the hyperbole and came into the playoffs as the sixth seed. A season of key injuries and some disappointing results had seemingly hijacked the Packers season at regular points, but they fought back. Still, this was hardly Super Bowl material. Or was it? When they won, they usually won well. When they lost, they usually did so with that sense of "we could have had that one". Thus the Packers may have entered the playoffs as the lowest seed in the NFC, but they were still being treated as a hot tip to make the Super Bowl. What followed were two games that were not the NFC Championship game but were touted as such by many. The Eagles under Mike Vick were seen as probably having the best shot among NFC teams at beating someone like the Steelers or Patriots in the Super Bowl, purely it would seem off the back of Vick's play making ability. Yet they crashed out at the hands of Green Bay. Then came the number one seed Falcons. For the Packers it was "the real" NFC Championship game part II. And they won it. Which finally means that Green Bay can take on Chicago in the NFC Championship game part III ("The Wrath of Kuhn". Or is it "The Search For Starks"?). Or as it's otherwise known; just the proper NFC Championship game. So who will win? I'm not sure. Personally I think it's going to hinge on the Packers pass rush. I have no worries about their offense. They're good enough that they can protect Rodgers and that Rodgers can get the ball out to his excellent receivers. But can the Bears do the same? Can their O-line handle B.J. Raji, Clay Matthews, Charles Woodson coming off the edge etc. I think if the Packers can get a sack or two early on, it'll probably be enough to knock Cutler off his rhythm and set Chicago's offense back to a point from which it can't recover. From the Bears perspective I think they have to find a way to slow down said Packers pass rush. The screen game to Matt Forte is an unheralded weapon that they have up their sleeve. If they can mix that in with a solid dose of running to keep Rodgers, Jennings and co. off the field, they'll be in with a shot. A special teams return or two from Devin Hester wouldn't go amiss either. New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers I don't know about anyone else, but I kind of feel a little deflated this week. Last week we had the latest installment of the Steelers/Ravens rivalry, followed by the main event bout between the brash, trash talking Jets and the calm, surgical precision of the hotly tipped Patriots. This week in comparison has been something of an anticlimax. I'm not sure why though. The AFC Championship game promises to be every bit as tantalising as last weeks offering and probably more so than the NFC game. With the defense orientated Steelers hosting the defense orientated Jets, a true tough guy clash is on the cards. Two hitting teams who love nothing more than to get in your face and turn it into a fight. Or as it's otherwise known; a true football game. Any notion that this will be like the Colts/Saints Super Bowl of last year, a "basketball on grass" type game between two offenses, should be buried right now alongside the Jets game ball from "that" Patriots encounter. Of course this is the perfect way to set up a 45-42 thriller, but somehow I doubt that. Not when Rex Ryan will be dipping deep into his playbook for ways to confuse and contain Ben Roethlisberger. And sure as hell not with Mark Sanchez on the field. Period. I'm sorry, I don't trust Sanchez. I know people bang on about his record in the playoffs, but to counter that I would point out that while Sanchez may sound like a tennis player, he's not. He's a football player. Which means that there are 52 other guys who win every game that he wins and probably have more of a cumulative impact. Which on balance isn't that hard. Sanchez has his moments of brilliance. At times he's unlucky with his receivers dropping passes. But it cannot be denied that a lot of the time Sanchez looks like he'd be more at home in the UFL. Now put that up against probably the premier defense in the NFL this season. Sure the Steelers finished behind the Chargers for total yards conceded, but they topped the list for just about every other category going. You name it and the Steelers were leading the way in it. All season long they've been collecting sacks, tackles for loss, pass break ups and fines like they were the latest collectible treasures of the Western world. Now tell me, on any given snap would you really bet the house on Sanchez versus that D? What about LaDanian Tomlinson? There's been a lot of talk about the fact that a Jets win will finally see Tomlinson reach the big game. But how will he match up against the Steelers front seven? That's not just your average run of the mill rush defense right there. It's not the Bills and it's not the Patriots with their weak front sevens. That's the 2010 Steel Curtain, built for a purpose. Honestly, I can't see it happening, not on a regular basis. That then means that the Jets defense has to come up big. If we're looking at maybe one TD and one or two field goals from the offense, then the defense is going to have to truly earn it's money. "Revis Island" and Antonio Cromartie are going to have to lock down Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown over the top, and Hines Ward underneath. The pass rush is going to have to find it's way home to Big Ben, keeping him tucked up nicely in the pocket and finally corralling him before he has a chance to launch a bomb downfield. In other words this is it. It truly is "put up or shut up" time for Rex Ryan. He's done a great job, much better than most people realise, in somehow bringing his team to two consecutive AFC Championship games. But such an achievement will be somewhat swept under the carpet if he can't push his side over the top this time. It's the price you pay for being so brash and attention hungry. It's fine to go out and make ballsy statements, but at some point you've got to back them up or you just look like an ass. Now is the time for Rex Ryan and the Jets. Either way, it should be a hell of show.

Divisional Round Recap

Seattle Seahawks 24 @ Chicago Bears 35: It was inevitable really. Like I said yesterday, the Bears D is much more accomplished than the Saints. And don't let the scoreline disguise the reality of this game. It was 21-0 at half time. By the time the fourth quarter started it was 28-3. The Seahawks basically spent the first 3 quarters or so punting the ball. On both sides of the ball the Bears took control, but the offense was particularly impressive. Jay Cutler was 15/28 for 274 yards with 2 touchdowns. Tight End Greg Olsen only caught 3 passes, but he converted them into 113 yards and a TD. Matt Forte had 25 carries for 80 yards. Chester Taylor finally turned in a performance to start paying back his free agent fee, with 11 carries for 44 yards and a TD. But it was Cutler who stole the show on the ground as well. 8 carries, 43 yards and 2 TD's. It may not sound like the greatest haul in the world, but the 2 touchdowns are impressive and the other runs helped the Bears to keep drives alive. Cutler simply owned the field whenever he was on it. With that win the Bears progress to the NFC Championship game which will now be hosted at Soldier Field, with the Bears welcoming the Packers for what promises to be a superb showdown. New York Jets 28 @ New England Patriots 21: The Jets did it. They only bloody did it. All the trash talk, all the hype, all the back and forth. Sadly the game wasn't quite what was expected, but entertaining in its own way. For the Jets it was the affirmation of a week (or more) spent ripping on the Patriots. For the Patriots it was an embarrassing put down by the most divisive team in the NFL right now. Tom Brady had a so so game. 29/45 for 299 yards, 2 TD's and 1 INT is actually not bad. All the hype at the minute is that the Jets shut the Patriots offense down and confused Brady to point where he was largely ineffective. Well, call me a traditionalist and a cynic, but I hardly call 29 completed passes for 299 yards being "shutdown". That's not to take away from the fact that at times Brady looked uncharacteristically hesitant and at times a little lost, but he still put out a fair afternoons work. He also had a potential 3rd TD dropped in the end zone. But bizarrely the Jets offense topped the Patriots. I say bizarrely because while the numbers tell us that Mark Sanchez went 16/25 for 194 yards and 3 TD's, the tale of the TV is that the Jets offense spent a large amount of this game stinking it up and then only hitting good plays intermittently. RB Shonne Greene helped to stabilise the ship somewhat with 17 carries for 76 yards and a TD, but it was still probably the least impressive QB performance in a playoff win that I've seen for a while. I don't know. On paper it all looks pretty good. But I just get that sense that Sanchez is in way over his depth. Luckily (for him) the Patriots had practically zero pass rush. They mustered no sacks and not even a QB hit. 4 tackles for a loss was their lot. Do we really think it will be so easy next week against the Steelers? Be honest now? Do we think the Steelers (who were missing Troy Polamalu when the teams met in Week 15) will really be so toothless up front? Don't count on it. The positive of course was the Jets defense. 5 sacks, 7 tackles for loss, 7 QB hits, an interception and 2 forced fumbles. Sedrick Ellis alone accounted for 2 sacks, 2 TFL and 2 QB hits. They may have still given up quite a few yards, but their coverage at times held just enough. Again this is an area I would slightly dispute. The coverage was pretty tight, but the prevailing notion that the Jets "smothered" the Patriots receivers is, if I may become a pretentious Brit from the 1920's era, "Utter tosh and Poppycock". 299 yards in the air, and by NFL standards, some of those receivers were most definitely open. Normally Brady would have found them with ease but here he just looked lost and/or blind at times. Maybe I'm being a little too critical and nit picky of the Jets. The inescapable fact is they've just beaten the Colts and the Patriots in successive weeks. Normally, beating just one of those teams would be worthy of the praise. But both? In consecutive weeks? That means the Jets have now made it to the Championship game two seasons in a row. It's a hell of a statement and something that has to be respected. But if Rex Ryan is going to fulfill the hype that his team is a Super Bowl caliber side, then he still has to go to Heinz Field and do something that not many teams do; beat the Steelers at home. In the playoffs.

Divisional round part 2

Wow. Just...... wow. Baltimore Ravens 24 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 31: At halftime it looked like it was all over. For a while there I was thinking to myself "All the those pundits, they nailed it. The Ravens are walking this one." But you just don't count the Steelers down and out that easy. No sir. The Ravens under went a second half implosion upon which the Steelers suddenly pounced to win it. A rough and tumble game, with hits and at times punches (and even a head butt) thrown back and forth, this rivalry game lived up to his hype 10x over. The only thing that didn't stand the test of expectation was the scoreline, which soared to unknown heights for this clash. Not that the defenses didn't have good games. The Ravens D put up six sacks, 6 tackles for loss, 8 QB hits, 5 passes defended and 2 forced fumbles. Terrell Suggs alone reaped 3 sacks, 2 tackles for loss, 2 QB hits and a forced fumble. The Steelers D were not to be out done though. 5 sacks, 7 tackles for a loss, 4 QB hits, an interception, 8 passes defended and a forced fumble. James Harrison led the way with 3 sacks, 3 tackles for loss, 2 QB hits and 2 passes defended. Joe Flacco was held to just 16/30 for 125 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Ben Roethlisberger did only a little better, with 19/32 for 226 yards and 2 TD's. Neither teams ground game found much life, as could be expected given the respective defenses, with Ray Rice being held to 32 yards and a touchdown from 12 carries (seriously, why only 12 carries when you were leading this game comfortably at one point?) and Rashard Mendenhall leading the Steelers with 20 carries for 46 yards and 2 touchdowns. Ultimately the Ravens killed themselves. Despite leading 21 to 7 at half time Rice only carried the ball 6 times in the second half. Are the Ravens taking the Fu...reakin' piss? 6 carries? What was I saying just last week about the Chiefs not sticking with hot hand Jamaal Charles? For the sake of Matt Cassel? Now you're telling me that the Ravens rate Joe Flacco over Ray Rice? That's horseshit. Someone in Baltimore obviously has a king sized hard on for Flacco and it potentially just cost their team a place in the AFC Championship game. "Know Thyself". I'm seriously considering renaming this blog after that quote. Congratulations to the Steelers for a very strong win. They progress to the championship game that will be played either a) in New England, should they beat the Jets tomorrow, or b) in Pittsburgh, should the Jets be victorious. Green Bay Packers 48 @ Atlanta Falcons 21: When John Kuhn ran in for a TD to tie the game at 14 a piece, it was looking like a classic shoot out might be in the making. The Falcons then drove the field, but Matt Ryan sold his receiver short (who then slipped trying to come back to the ball) and Tramon Williams picked off the pass in the endzone. Then the Packers went down the field themselves and took the 21-14 lead. Then they put the game away at 28-14. The Falcons were trying to pull off a desperately needed drive to get back 3 points before half time when Matt "Matty Ice" Ryan suddenly melted in the burning sun of the Packers rising corner Tramon Williams. The Falcons called a play that required Roddy White to run an out to the left. Unfortunately he ran at an angle towards the sideline right from the start, tipping Williams off. Williams had the position on White and Ryan should have just chucked it away or gone somewhere else. Instead he forced it and Williams returned it for a touchdown. The Packers took a lead the Falcons would never touch. But the Packers weren't done. They came back in the second half and drove multiple nails into the Falcons coffin, with two more touchdowns and two field goals. Aaron Rodgers finished the game with a stunning 31/36 for 366 yards and 3 TD's. James Starks carried 25 times for 66 yards. Greg Jennings had 8 catches for 101 yards. The Falcons numbers pale in comparison. Matt Ryan; 20/29 for 186 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs. Michael Turner; 10 carries for 39 yards and a TD. Mike Jenkins; 6 catches for 67 yards. On defense the Packers led a riot. 5 sacks, 6 tackles for loss, 6 QB hits, 2 interceptions, 2 passes defended and a forced fumble. LB Clay Matthews alone accounted for 2 sacks, 2 tackles for loss and 2 QB hits. It ended as a massacre. And this is precisely what I was talking about with Green Bay's potential. All season long they've had this capability within them, to walk onto the field and utterly dominate an opponent, which made their losses in the regular season all the more frustrating for Packers fans. Finally they seem to be getting into the swing of things just at the right moment. Next up is a guaranteed road trip to face the winner of the Seahawks/Bears game. Which reminds me... Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears: Ok Seattle, you knocked off the Saints. Now can you pull off a miracle twice and beat the Bears too? Again the Seahawks have that punchers chance of knocking the Bears out. But it will be much tougher this time around. This is a Bears D that is basically built to stop teams like Seattle; playing a mix of true cover 2 and "Tampa 2", the Seahawks might find Bears defenders dropping into all the different places where they'd otherwise like to put the ball. The Bears pass rush is vastly superior to the Saints, with out the need to bring five man pressures on most plays and finally the Bears defense will be a much tougher nut to crack on the ground. There's a risk here of talking about the Bears much like most people were talking about the Saints last week, but the simple fact of life is that this Bears team is much stronger defensively than the Saints, albeit with a little less punch on offense. Yes, the much maligned Jay Cutler has the chance to finally win his playoff stripes. All he has to do is handle the Seahawks pass rush, which is a lot easier than it sounds, and then get the ball to playmakers like Devin Hester and Johnny Knox, which is also a lot easier than it sounds. But I'm leaning towards the side that says well done to Seattle for coming this far, but you're probably not going any further. The combo of defensive ends Israel Idonije and Julius Peppers is unlike anything the Seahawks line has seen for a while, and given the pretty shoddy nature of the Seahawks O-line it might very well get ugly, quickly. But then that's what everyone was saying about the game with the Saints last week. The winner will host Green Bay in the NFC Championship game. New York Jets @ New England Patriots: Let's face it, this game is probably more hotly anticipated than even the Ravens/Steelers game was. For that we have to thank the big mouth of Rex Ryan and his Jets players who decided that rather than just leaving the Hornets nest alone, they would instead endeavour to poke it repeatedly with the biggest stick they could find until it fell off the tree and split. Probably even more entertaining was listening to Wes Welker slip as many foot references into his press conference as possible (I believe he hit eleven in just under 8 mins). But the time is at hand now to find out who has put their best foot forward and who's been putting their foot in their mouth. On paper, it looks like the Jets are about to get brutally crushed beneath Belichicks boot (and Super Bowl ring(s)) much as they did in week 13 (45-3). Just the other day I put up the pictorial proof on this very site that Darrelle Revis can be beaten. We don't need pictures to tell us that Antonio Cromartie can beaten, or that he is a little, shall we say, "tackle shy". Probably the weakest link, and Rex must know it, is quarterback Mark Sanchez. His only stroke of luck is that the Patriots haven't exactly been the masters of the blitz this year. Otherwise he could be in for a tough day. This Patriots secondary has already shown a taste for interceptions and any flutter balls from Sanchez will be in dangerous territory with the Pats lurking around every corner. Oh, and this before we get to the small matter of the Patriots offense. Tom Brady. Deion Branch. Wes Welker. Aaron Hernandez. Rob Gronkowski. Danny Woodhead. Julian Edelman. BenJarvus-Green Ellis. Brandon Tate. Should I stop now? The Patriots offense is playing as well as any in the league has this season. Drive after drive, like a methodical robotic machine, the Patriots have driven down the field time and again, with Brady firing the ball in all directions and ably supported (for a change) by the solid running game. This is genuinely a scary offensive team that gives Defensive coordinators nightmares. But are they unbeatable? No. Not by a long shot. Aside from regular season losses pre-Randy Moss trade, the Patriots were also taken to the wire by a Packers team that was missing Matt Flynn. The key was physical football on offense that kept the ball away from Brady, and a decent pass rush on offense. People forget that under constant, heavy pressure, Brady is just as susceptible to mistakes as you or eye in our daily work (well, almost). And it turns out that those things are precisely what the Jets specialise in. Their ground game is infinitely better than their passing attack and Rex Ryan is one of the acknowledged masters of the blitz in this league. He also showed his tactical prowess last week against the Colts, leaving gaping holes in his line for the Colts to run at, knowing full well that the ball out of Peyton Mannings hands was a good thing and that the Colts could not sustain any kind of successful rushing attack for the duration of the game. What will Rex Ryan come up with for the Patriots? I'm not sure, but you can bet that Bill Belichick is standing on the opposite sideline with an equally impressive game plan in hand. It's going to be fun to watch, and even more fun if the Jets lose. I'm not sure if the slice of the humble pie they'll have to eat will fit inside the state of New York. Plus, who's going to foot the bill for it?

Wildcard Weekend (part 2)

New Orleans Saints 36 @ Seattle Seahawks 41 Ho-ly-sh... you get the idea. I said it. I didn't think they'd do it but the Seahawks just came out, let it all go and it paid off big time. They dug into their bag of tricks and came out with some unusual stuff. Fake screens, hook-and-spin routes etc, with a healthy dose of shocking defense by the Saints. But the real point that should be made, the real winner here, was the determination and sheer effort by the Seahawks players. We often talk about these kind of things on blogs, in books and on TV. You see hokey films about pulling together and going all out for one another, but nobody ever seems to put the words into practice. You see people try, then give up. Well the Seahawks didn't. They gave us a shining example of mental strength pushing the body to new levels and how teamwork & hustle can truly make a big difference in football. Marshawn Lynch's TD run was a great demonstration of that as QB Matt Hasselbeck was among those Seahawks racing down the field to help their team mate get the score. We can't forget completely about the losers though. We have to take our collective hats off I think (gentlemen, if you please) to the New Orleans Saints offense. Without his starting running backs Drew Brees was forced to throw 39/60 (sixty!!) for 404 yards and 2 TD's with no interceptions. It was a huge effort and let's not overlook the fact that traditionally speaking, when you score 36 points, you have a tendency to win a lot of games. So I wouldn't begrudge the Saints offense for shooting some killer looks at the defense who were about as stout, rugged and effective as a drill bit made from chocolate. The tackling, the coverage, the whole works. It was just all around poor defense. I dunno, maybe defensive coordinator Greg Williams was distracted this week with potential job offers on the table, but man, that defense just wasn't the same as it was last year. They looked like the 2008 group that stunk it up on a regular basis. So now the Seahawks progress to the divisional round. Up next? If Green Bay wins the other NFC Wildcard game on Sunday, then the Seahawks head to Chicago. If the Eagles win, the Seahawks have a date with Atlanta. In the meantime the Seahawks and their fans have time to boogey: New York Jets 17 @ Indianapolis Colts 16 Some how, some way, the Jets did it. Mark Sanchez was awful. 18/31 for 189 yards and an INT. He was throwing loose passes all over the field and was lucky not to get picked off more than just the once. But fate has a funny way of twisting at this time of year. The Colts ran the ball. And kept running it. I know that I've often suggested that the Colts might benefit from running a little more, but this isn't quite what I had in mind. Actually, scrap that. This is nothing like what I had in mind. 27 runs? By the colts? And Manning threw just 18/26? What? The most mind boggling for me was the Colts approach on third down. When I think of predominantly pass first teams like the Colts running the ball, I'm thinking first and second down. Maybe the occasional sneaky run on third down. But to go for a near all out attack on third down using the run? No, surely not. It doesn't matter if I had one yard to go, two, three, four, or eight, whatever, I would be trusting that down and our offenses continued possession of the ball to Peyton Manning. I certainly wouldn't be overly keen to be handing the ball off to Dominic Rhodes. Joseph Addai I can live with, but I'd much rather see Addai in pass protection or running a route on 3rd down, with my golden boy surveying the field and doing his thing. Not so the Jets, who apparently got sick and tired of Sanchez throwing the ball to invisible receivers and thus decided to break out their rushing attack for a change. You remember right, that same rushing attack that allowed them to somewhat protect Sanchez last season and helped them to get to the AFC Championship game? Yeah that one. LaDanian Tomlinson. That's all I'm saying. Ok, I'll say a little more. 16 carries, 82 yards, 2 TD's. The guy looks fresh and ready to roll in these playoffs. Just when everyone has smacked Tomlinson down once more, along come the Jets to remind everyone that essentially the offensive line dictates a big part of how many yards a running back gets. Thus guys like Tomlinson have little to fear. He still has the burst to hit a hole and fall forwards for yards, possibly for another 2 or 3 years providing there is no major upheaval in the Jets O-line. Now finally I'd like to end on a complaint, or two, because God knows I love me a moan. The first issue in question is the "roughing the kicker" called against the Colts. I appreciate that under the letter of the law, that was a penalty. I'm not disputing that. But what I will dispute is that in the offseason that rule needs to be changed. If that degree of contact is what constitutes "roughing" in the modern world, then for the last 10 years or so, anytime I've ever got off a bus during the rush hour I've committed numerous fouls for "roughing". In my opinion, the Colts rusher was making an active attempt to pull up at the end and avoid any serious, hard hitting collision with the kicker. Or to put it another way, he could have just drilled the guys standing leg and left him in a crippled heap, but he didn't. Contact like this, while only a very small part of the game, helps to enforce the wider image that the NFL is turning "soft". If the league is going to continue to be as successful as it has been, it needs to hold onto the fans it has and that means reversing this trend of perceived or actual "softness" in the game. The second thing I want to bitch about is the Colts calling a timeout with 29 seconds left as the Jets were driving for the winning field goal. My question is simply; why? On the sidelines, Manning looked pissed off and I can sympathise with that. It set up a pass by Sanchez to Edwards on the next play, which set the Jets up for a 32-yard field goal to win the game. It just blows the mind sometimes. Do the Colts not have a plan for this? Why do team keep making these critical errors in time management, week after damn week? Given the huge salaries involved, as an owner I would be chewing glass right about now, wondering what in the hell I was forking out the big bucks for given that I could probably hire a high school coach to come in and manage the clock better than that, at far less expense. But enough complaining, at least for now. As the number six seed, the Jets will now go on to play Tom Brady and the Patriots. Maybe Rex was right? Maybe he does have a Super Bowl winning team at hand. I'll wait and see how Sanchez gets on first if that's ok everyone. And onto the preview of Sunday's games. Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs (1:00pm ET, CBS) (6:00pm GMT, Sky Sports 2) The Ravens at the Chiefs, as running game clashes with running game. What intrigues me, because I'm a sad git who gets intrigued by otherwise uninteresting things, is the style clash that will take place between the three main runners on Sunday. First we have Jamaal Charles of the Chiefs. Charles is all about the speed. In the open field he can light teams up just as easily as Chris Johnson of the Titans. Typically with Charles you'll see the Chiefs run a "stretch" style play, where the offensive line all moves in one direction at the snap, looking to get the jump on their respective D-linemen and seal them inside using what we call a "reach" block. The idea is to cutoff the defense, pin them inside and then let Charles go flying around the outside and up the field with his speed. Thomas Jones of the Chiefs is very different. Coming from the Jets last year and, if we're honest, getting a little long in the tooth right now, Jones is more of you inside style rusher. Typically you'll see the Chiefs start off moving in one direction, similar to the stretch play above, but with a tight end and/or a fullback coming back against the flow to help kick out defenders on the backside and create a void up the middle for Jones, where he can use his power, toughness and, let's face it, big brass balls to drive right through the heart of the defense and off to pay dirt. My favourite though is Ray Rice of the Ravens. Why? Because (shut up, I know) normally with running backs, their success is tied very closely to their offensive line. Or to put it another way, unless you happen by chance to be a ghost it's physically impossible to run through a wall of 300 pound offensive and defensive linemen standing shoulder to shoulder. This is the major problem that Chris Johnson has had in Tennessee this year. Every time they call a run the Titans O-line seems to get wadded up in a bunch, which is a win for the defense. With no gaps between the linemen, it makes it very easy for the linebackers to read the play. All they have to do is flow towards the gaps at the two ends of the bunch and boom, dead play. Coincidentally the Ravens D happens to be quite good at doing just that. But the thing with Ray Rice is, he seems to possess an extraordinary vision on such plays for finding the tiny little cracks in the defense. His lateral quickness combined with that vision allows Rice to to squirm through creases that other running backs can't, if they even see them in first place. Credit to Rice for that. But the question still lingers, who might win such a battle? Well if I'm honest, the Ravens appear have the advantage. We know both teams can run the ball and that both teams struggle a little when throwing, but the Ravens D gives them the clear edge. That's not to say that the Chiefs have a weak defense, but they're simply not the Ravens. They can both bring pressure on the quarterback and both teams have playmakers in the back end, but critically in what could prove to be a ground and pound game, the Ravens run defense has the edge. The Ravens finished the regular season as the number 5 defense against the run. The Chiefs came in at number 14. So if it turns out to be a grind 'em down style field position battle, you probably have to give Baltimore the advantage. There is hope however for the Chiefs. An early score could tempt the Ravens into throwing a little more and as we've seen this season they're pass protection still leaves something to be desired. That gives Tamba Hali the open shot he needs to get in and cause some havoc. Hali topped the AFC for sacks in the regular season with 14.5 (only DeMarcus Ware finished ahead of him in the NFC, with 15.5). Add to that the hidden effect of numerous QB hits and pressures which go largely unnoticed on the stat sheets (someone at one of the big networks needs to fix this), and you have a recipe for forcing Joe Flacco into some bad throws. The Chiefs have the people in the secondary to make Flacco pay, and so the Chiefs could be set up to pull off the next huge upset in the 2010 season Wildcard weekend. We'll see. The winner has a date lined up with the Steelers... Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles (4:30pm ET, FOX) (9:30pm GMT, Sky Sports 2) The Packers and the Eagles clash in what bizarrely many people are touting as the true NFC Championship game. I think the Falcons and Bears might have something to say about that (and the Seahawks I guess). Still though, it is a hell of a clash to be having in the wildcard weekend. Michael Vick, the NFL's golden ticket for redemption (and advertising revenues) up against Aaron Rodgers, the successor to Brett Favre. So how good are these teams? The Eagles destroyed the Redskins in a style that you would expect of a great team. They also produced the miracle at the New Meadowlands, coming back from almost certain defeat at the hands of what was a very strong Giants team (10-6 with one of the better defenses out there) to storm to victory. The Packers caliber is much more subtle. Consider that the Patriots are widely touted as the best team in the NFL right now, and that the Packers managed to run their game against the Patriots very close, all without the aid of starting QB Aaron Rodgers. 'The Pack' are also one of those rare teams that has great strength on both sides of the ball. They have a great offense that is more than capable of getting into a shootout with any team in the league. But on defense they are also pretty sound. The development of corners Tramon Williams and Sam Shields has had a huge impact for them. When you then consider that their front seven is up there among the best, easily at home alongside the Ravens and the Steelers, and you have a seriously solid all around team. Not quite the same story in Philadelphia. The Eagles have Mike Vick. They have DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy and James Harrison (don't knock the guy). But on defense it begins to get a little flimsy. While Trent Cole, Juqua Parker and Darryl Tapp form the backbone of a formidable pass rush, the Eagles have still been found wanting on the back end this season, and their rush defense has at times been very poor. All things considered I think the Packers have the edge going into this game, but as we've seen this season, not least in this wildcard weekend, anything is possible on any given Sunday. Could the X factor that is Michael Vick tip the balance? Will Aaron Rodgers simply stroll onto the field and tear apart the Eagles secondary? Maybe DeSean Jackson will have a few big run backs in the kicking game? Guess we'll all just have to grab a beer (Amaretto for me please), sit back, relax and tune in to what is proving to be one of the most intriguing seasons in recent memory. I'll be back tomorrow for a full recap.

Wildcard Weekend (part 1)

So now we know where three teams will be headed in 2011. The Titans have confirmed Jeff Fisher will be their coach for at least another year. The Dolphins have signed Tony Sparano through 2013. Not, however, before arranging a meeting with Eric Mangini to come on board as a "consultant", cancelling a press conference along the way that would have been used to confirm Sparano as the 2011 coach of the Dolphins. The meeting with Mangini didn't go ahead in the end and Sparano has been confirmed, but the damage to the reputation of both the coach and owner has been done. Dolphins owner Stephen Ross now looks like a jackass. And he's pulled Sparano down with him, effectively sending the message to the players that "we couldn't get the guy we wanted and we couldn't find anyone else who would take the role, so we're bringing back Sparano for you. Enjoy." Of course the guy they "wanted" was Jim Harbaugh, who will now be coaching the 49ers for 2011. Harbaugh's first order of business? Quarterback. With both Alex and Troy Smith up for free agency, that leaves David Carr as the only guy signed for 2011. With Harbaughs college QB Andrew Luck staying on for another year, that means the 49ers might be looking for a trade. One option is Josh Johnson of the Buccaneers, who Harbaugh has worked with previously. I really like Johnson so you won't hear any complaints from me. The other possibility, outside of the draft of course, is a free agent. Topping that list might be Donovan McNabb who is expected to be released by the Redskins. Please Jim; don't. McNabb has done well, but he's not exactly Mr. Consistent and seems to have a real problem dealing with pressure. Please, let's just go somewhere else, with a young guy who you can mold. Please. Just before we have a look at this Saturday's wild card games, just time to point you in the direction of the latest work from NFL.com's Albert Breer. Good stuff. Now, games, which after all is what football is all about. New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks (4:30PM ET, NBC) The stage is set for an epic disappointment. Quite whose, we don't yet know. It could be the Seahawks, their hopes raised after stumbling to victory over the Rams. On the back of Mike Williams and a semi-resurgent Marshawn Lynch, the Seahawks have become the first 7-9 division champion, and the first team outside of a strike shortened season to make the playoffs with a losing record. It all looks so hopeful. It's a big achievement, especially after such miserable seasons as the Seahawks have endured in recent years (as a 49er fan I can only say one thing. Good). Maybe this is their time to shine again? Or maybe it's their time to get their dreams crushed, as the Saints roll into town and flatten their helpless and hapless opponents in a demonstration of such sheer dominance and offensive power that the French nation promptly surrender to Coach Payton before he turns on them (a bit of good ol' fashion British light hearted humour/Xenophobia/racism there). Conversely, it could be the Saints in for a shock. God knows it would be a shock to all of us if Seattle wins, but they have a few things in their favour. Last year the Saints finished the regular season with a +11 turnover differential. This year the Saints finished at -6. That's not helped by the loss of running backs Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory. The expectation now is that with the loss of his run game, Drew Brees will have to throw even more, possibly close to 50 times in this game. With Brees's recent problems with interceptions, that could be a potential gold mine waiting to be tapped for Seattle. Then we have the crowd. The noise in Qwest Field is pretty legendary, and in a playoff game there is likely to be little respite for the Saints. That throws up issues of false starts at critical moments and a breakdown of communication, especially during audibles. The Saints are used to very loud stadiums, but not when their offense is on the field. Finally; just the sheer surprise factor of the Seahawks. They have nothing to lose and everything to gain, the exact opposite of the defending champion Saints. If the Saints are too cocky it could be their downfall. Too conservative and the same applies. Meanwhile the Seahawks can dig deep into the playbook on both sides of the ball and just go all out for the win. If they crash and burn, who cares? If Seattle gets hammered 45-0 I wont batter an eye lid (just laugh. Heartily). On paper I would expect the Saints to do just that. It's not like Seahawks fans realistically expect their team to beat the Saints. And if they lose by just 3 points? That's still a loss, so all that conservative play just went out of the window for nothing. If the Seahawks just come out, have fun and let it all hang loose, who knows? I should also probably take the time right now to point out that I wont be doing picks this week, or for the rest of the season (possibly not even for the whole of next season). My regular season record was just over .500, my playoff record from last year was terrible (including 0-7 from the Divisional round onwards if I remember rightly) and just generally I find it much more enjoyable watching games when I'm not secretly cheering on one side or the other because I picked them. And that's before we get onto the issue of teams not doing as their told (Texans, Panthers, Titans etc. Hate those guys). I doubt it'll be a great loss to the world. New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts (8:00PM ET, NBC) Surprise, surprise, Rex Ryan has been writing checks with his mouth that his team potentially wont be able to cash. The way to the Super Bowl would see the Jets likely take on Peyton Manning, arguably the best QB in the league today, followed by Tom Brady, arguably the best QB in the league today, and then possibly followed by Ben Roethlisberger, arguably the best QB in the league today. That's a hell of a lot of good quarterbacks to be facing, even for the Jets defense. While they have the potential to be very solid, they've also had their fair share of struggles this season, including against the Browns, a team not noted for the wild success of its offense. Let us not forget also that all of these teams must be overcome with Mark Sanchez at the helm for the Jets offense. Now just to recap, that means Mark Sanchez versus (potentially); -- The Colts defense, which was already good and has only got better lately. The Colts D gave up the highest percentage of passes completed in the regular season, but were in the top half of the table for least passing yards allowed. This is also a defense that gave up less touchdowns than the Jets. -- The Patriots defense, which gave up one more TD than the Jets D (25 to 24), but recorded over double the number of interceptions (25 to 12). -- The Steelers defense, which; conceded the second least yards per game (behind the Chargers), the least total points (232 compared to the Jets 304), the least points per game (14.5), conceded the second least (tied) percentage of 3rd down conversions (32%), recorded the most sacks (48), gave up less touchdowns (15) than it had interceptions (21), and gave up the fewest rushing yards (1,004) which was about 437 yards better than the second placed team (Chicago). In other words, it's going to be bloody hard for the Jets to make a dent in a very strong playoff group. The added pressure of Rex Ryan telling the world that he doesn't think Brady works as hard as Manning or can cope as well without his coaches as Manning, only helps to set up a great (and embarrassing) down fall in the divisional round. That's providing of course that they can topple the Colts. That would be the Indianapolis Colts who struggled at times, especially in the middle of the season, but otherwise did very well for themselves. Despite the hiccups, the Colts offense still finished with the 4th most points in the regular season and picked up more first downs per game than any other team. In particular Manning and the Colts love games like this. Racking up the points on offense entices the opposing side into a shoot out. That's where Freeney and Mathis come in. If the back end can hold up long enough (helped dramatically by playing less experienced QB's like Sanchez) that opens the door for a furious pass rush. When your rushing attack stinks, as the Jets has lately, that only increases your appearance of one dimensionality further. The Jets have fought and battled at times and somehow came through with the record that they did. If they want to go any further, it's going to take a tremendous effort. All I know is it's going to be a hell of a lot of fun to watch! Tomorrow I'll be back to recap the Saturday action and to look forward to Sunday's game.

Monday Night Football recap

Just to start off I want to draw your attention to an article from the Associated Press that was posted on NFL.com. It's about female reporter Ines Sainz, who during a visit to the Jets facility - including their locker room - alleges that she was the recipient of various whistles and cat calls, and that when she was out observing practice on the field both coaches and players made an undue effort to throw the ball so that it would be caught near to where she was standing. Overall she is said to have felt "uncomfortable". Apparently the NFL is looking into it, but I really think someone should be looking into the Associated Press. As I read the article I encountered numerous instances of what I would consider to be selective reporting, designed to make Sainz appear as the type of lady who would encourage inappropriate attention. References are made to photos posted of her in swim wear on her Networks website and they make a point of ignoring any good/well known work she may have done with regards to football journalism in favour of mentioning the time she measured Steve Breastons bicep at the Super Bowl and the fact that she once mistakenly referred to the Giants as the Jets. If mistaking a teams name innocently - just a slip of the tongue/mind etc - is a sin, then every reporter who has ever worked in sports and every writer who has ever written about football is in the same boat. In my opinion - for what it's worth - the article was written in such a way as to portray Sainz in a bad light. And I'd expect much better from the Associated Press. And the NFL. Now, time to recap Monday nights games and see if I've recovered a morsel of hope in my picks: Ravens 10 @ Jets 9 -- Hmm, high scorer this one. And so much for the Jets Super Bowl bid. One loss doesn't preclude a team from winning the big one, but that offense sure does look shaky. In fact shaky is not the right word. Terrible would be the right word. They made the Browns look productive. Sanchez finished 10/21 for 74 yards. Jerricho Cotchery was their leading receiver with 18 yards from 2 catches. On the ground it was slightly more impressive. LaDanian Tomlinson carried 11 times for 62 yards, which is more than Ray Rice achieved for the Ravens with 21 carries (for 43 yards). Flacco in the end proved the difference, bouncing back from early mishaps to register 20/38 for 248 yards and an INT. Willis McGahee finally punched in the games only TD. Defense seemed to rule, mainly the Jets, as they struggled to keep "Air Flacco" grounded (Anquan Boldin finished with 7 catches for 110 yards). Leading the Jets was LB Bryan Thomas with 7 tackles, 2 assists and 1.5 sacks. DE Shaun Ellis came up with 5 tackles, 2 assists, a half sack and a forced fumble. Bart Scott (6 tackles, 3 assists, 1 forced fumble), Eric Smith (6 tackles, 3 assists) and Jim Leonhard (6 tackles) also did well.

For the Ravens the stats are low, but in a sense that's a good thing. It means they did the job effectively and didn't allow the Jets to put on many sustained drives. Terrell Suggs (4 tackles, 2 assists, a half sack and a forced fumble) and Haloti Ngata (3 tackles, 1 assist and a sack) are notable.

Chargers 14 @ Chiefs 21 -- I had some faith in the Chiefs. But after beating the Chargers, I now have less faith in them. This is caused by watching their defense play and realising that at times the Chargers receivers could have stood downfield swinging a ball and chain around their heads without any fear of ever hitting a Chiefs defender. Couple that with the Chiefs meagre tackling and it's nothing short of a miracle that they came away from this one with a win. Well, a miracle plus the longest punt return for a TD in team history. Plus triple covering Antonio Gates on the final play of the game. And that's the trouble with the Chargers. At times they breezed through the Chiefs defense like... me going through coffee. But then they got to the moment when it really counts with just 20 yards between them and a score and they bottled it. Philip Rivers ended the game with 22/39 for 298 yards and 2 TDs. Rookie running back Ryan Matthews (watch list) carried the ball 19 times for 75 yards, but it would appear the Chargers are still not prepared to let go of their passing game, even in the red zone. Legedu Naanee led all receivers with 5 catches for 110 yards and a TD. Chiefs QB Matt Cassel had a relatively dismal outing, ending 10/22 for 68 yards and a TD. Jamaal Charles demonstrated his burst in the open field, rushing for 92 yards and a TD off 11 carries, including a 56 yard scoot for the score. Defensively Chargers Safety Steve Gregory led his team in tackles with 7 and LB Shaun Phillips pitched in well with 5 tackles and a sack. For the Chiefs it was LB Derrick Johnson who stood out, with 11 tackles, an assist and a forced fumble. That then wraps up week 1 in the NFL, leaving me a craptacular 6/10 for my picks. Never fear, the season is young. And we've learnt... stuff. And this is the big problem with week 1. Do we really believe the Texans are going to spend the rest of the season as a rush first offense? Actually they probably will, just to spite me. I hate the Texans. Have a great day everyone.