So this week Todd Haley was fired - somewhat out of the blue - as the Head Coach of the Kansas City Chiefs.
With Haley's departure there was a void, and that void has been filled (for now) by Romeo Crennel. One of Crennels first acts was to announce to the team and the press that the God awful Tyler Palko has been relegated down the Quarterback chart... all the way to third place. Kyle Orton will start this week, providing he's fully recovered and healthy enough to play. If not then the gauntlet will fall to Ricky Stanzi, the rookie out of Iowa.
Good.
Other than correctly predicting the round in which Stanzi would be taken, which had as much do with skill as predicting lottery numbers, I was really high on Stanzi pre-draft. At one point I had him pegged number one among the quarterbacks in the 2011 draft, but later revised that in favour of Ponder by a smidgen.
That still makes Stanzi number two though. I just really liked what I saw from Stanzi at Iowa. Some of the underneath passes were a little errant under pressure and his footwork in the pocket was sometimes a little heavy, but generally speaking he was really good. It helped that he played for a team that ran a lot, so he had plenty of play action opportunities, and also that his receivers were pretty good. But that doesn't take away from the fact that Stanzi had a great deep pass, slotting the ball in beautifully over his receivers shoulders.
That's what I'm hoping to see if the Chiefs go with Stanzi; deep passes to unlock the potential of guys like Dwayne Bowe and Jonathan Baldwin.
The deep passing game has always interested me. It's not so much the idea of making big plays that appeals, although obviously that's a big part of it! The thing that interests me the most is the genuine stretch of the defense that is achieved through throwing the ball deep.
Coaches often talk about "spreading the field" and "making the defense protect every blade of grass". But it's surprising how few teams genuinely do this. There are a lot of teams that run "spread" offenses, that force the defense to string themselves out horizontally to cover four or five wide receivers, but a lot of these teams seem to neglect the deep pass.
The threat of the 40 yard fade pass down the sideline does so much for an offense. It forces the corners to play looser, sitting back a little more in order to avoid getting blown past. It makes safeties conscious of the need to protect the deep middle of the field, making them slower to react to run plays as they understand all too well the consequences of biting on what turns out to be a play action fake.
It even affects the linebackers. Now in this regard we're talking more about the deep-in passes, breaking across the middle of the field at a 15 yard depth, but the effect is still the same. It forces them be wary of run action, in case they bite on something that isn't really there and get burned over the top.
That - to me at least - is what stretching the field is truly about. Sending wide receivers and tight ends to attack the middle to deep areas of the field (10-40 yards), while letting the fullback and tail back (I'm an I-formation guy, just in case my numerous posts about running the ball hadn't given that away) work the spaces underneath, both in the flats to the sides and in front of the linebackers.
Again, the key to a stretch like that is not just to make the defence cover the whole width of the field, but to also cover much of it's length at the same time, combining routes in such a way as to force defenders to make tough choices about how far they're prepared to go in any one direction, lest they leave a gaping hole somewhere else;
Just some of the dizzying array of pass route options
I think it's safe to say looking at the diagram above that the defense has it's hands full on every passing play, but only when a team fully exploits the potential of the passing game by using all of the available routes in various combinations to confuse defenses and cause hesitation in their decision making, which is the absolute bane of any defense.
Defensive players are always taught to trust their eyes and play fast. Defensive Coordinators (the good ones at least) are always looking for ways to simplify their schemes as much as they can get away with, particularly by simplifying the reads their players have to make. The coaches want to make it as easy as possible for their players - at least from a mental perspective - to identify what's going on and to respond to it.
The longer a defensive player has to wait before reacting, the less time he has to actually get to the ball and make a play. At the NFL level, even a slight hesitation can be costly. By stretching the defense out both horizontally and vertically you can force defenders to wait longer before making choices; whether to sit short or drop back deep, whether to go inside or out.
An offense that stretches the defense horizontally but not vertically is doing the defense a favour, making it easier for them to play soft zones underneath or to bring heavy pressure combined with tight initial coverage. Teams that stretch the defense vertically but not horizontally are not much better, permitting the defense the advantage of sitting back and pinning the offense into tight throwing windows.
An offense that pulls the defense around both horizontally and vertically gives itself breathing room. It drags defenders out of position and it creates passing lanes (and running lanes). It also gives the quarterback options, giving him the chance to throw deep for a big gain, throw an intermediate pass for ball control or just a check down to help set up a convertible down and distance for the next play.
By the simple expedient of mixing up the routes - and with a bit of forward planning - an offense can make the defenses job several times harder with little additional effort on their own part. I'll be watching the Chiefs closely this week if Stanzi plays to see whether they use the deep pass to help take some of the pressure off the rookie quarterback.
And I'll be taking Atlanta over Jacksonville in tomorrow nights game.
As we edge closer to the start of the season it's time to take a look at how the Thursday and Friday games from pre-season week 3 panned out. Starting with...
The Panthers @ Bengals. And you know you're looking bad when this Bengals team can beat you. At this juncture it's probably a good time to point out that the Bengals did most of the damage with their starters against the Panthers starters, before anyone starts talking about third stringers.
Though initially it seemed bright enough for the Panthers with Cam Newton running 16 yards for the first score. But that's kind of where the fun ended for Cam, who finished 6/19 for 75 yards. Yes, 6/19. Now I know he's a rookie but that's still pretty bad. What I love most though is that had this been Tim Tebow in his rookie year, people would have been pouring on the hate. But I'm not hearing it now? Funny that. Ok, I'll make it up for all the lost voices; Newton is going to suck this year. And probably every other year.
There you go.
On the other side Andy Dalton started to show some signs of life, throwing 11/17 for 130 yards and a TD. Getting there Andy. Very slowly, but getting there. The real focus for the Bengals though should be on that running game. Cedric Benson and Bernard Scott combined for 22 carries, producing 131 yards and 2 touchdowns. The vitality of this running attack could just be the key to getting Dalton through the season with some semblance of success.
Next was the Browns @ Eagles. Mike Vick took some lumps for the Eagles, but complimented his 10/18 for 98 yards passing with 4 carries for 24 yards and a TD. Vince Young played the "anything you can do, I can do precisely the same" game, by also carrying 4 times for 24 yards and a TD. Running backs Ronnie Brown and Dion Lewis did a lot of the ground work, but LeSean McCoy was the back that got the cream, with 7 catches for a team leading 69 yards receiving.
For the Browns, Colt McCoy looked a little less assured this time around, with 9/18 for 89 yards plus an interception off a poor decision, throwing the ball under pressure to a waiting Asante Samuel who dropped off his outside receiver and snuck underneath the pass to make a great pick. Seneca Wallace clawed back a TD pass for the Browns, before rookie Jarrett Brown hit the field and went 4/4 for 35 yards and a TD. Kid's had quite a solid pre-season so far.
On defense it was all about the Eagles, who accompanied Samuel's interception with five sacks. They're still not quite the Dream Team in Philadelphia, but at least they look a little less shaky now.
Next was the Redskins @ Ravens, and quite a tight game. The Redskins quarterback battle continues with Rex Grossman throwing 8/15 for 112 yards and a TD to John Becks 6/10 for 108 yards and a TD, plus an INT. Overall I'm not sure who will win. Grossman has had the lions share of the playing time so he has more film for Shanahan and son to review, but I think Beck might just sneak it. He just looks a little sharper in general.
The story of the Redskins is still their running game though. Tim Hightower and rookie Roy Helu put up exactly 100 yards between them on 22 carries. Hightower also had a touchdown. Second year wide receiver Terrence Austin also impressed, with 5 carries for 71 yards and a TD. The 'skins defense also looked a bit better, with an interception by DeAngelo Hall and four sacks as a unit, including single sacks for rookies Ryan Kerrigan and Davonte Shannon.
For the Ravens, Joe Flacco kind of looked better in this game. Sort of. A little. Trying to find nice things to say about someone I don't rate all that much. He finished 17/27 for 219 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception (the DeAngelo Hall pick 6). Rookie Tyrod Taylor definitely improved, with 11/18 for 125 yards and a TD. Running back Ray Rice found his groove (13 carries, 72 yards, 1 TD) as did recent acquisition receiver Lee Evans, who caught 3 passes for 60 yards and a TD. Anquan Boldin had 5 catches for 73 yards and a TD as well. Ladarius Webb stood out on the Ravens D, with an interception and a sack.
Packers @ Colts next. The Curtis Painter saga continues. People have been heaping praise on him in the last few hours but I would say hold up a second. He was 11/21 for 171 yards and 2 touchdowns. That's not bad, but let's face it, for Curtis Painter that is practically a career performance. To top it off, 57 of those hallowed yards came when Reggie Wayne was left wide open as corner Sam Shields tried to emulate Asante Samuel's baiting trick from the day before... except Samuel had a safety playing the proper technique over the top and Shields didn't. The result was the Wayne TD. And Painter still sucks.
Aaron Rodgers doesn't though, finishing the game 19/23 for 204 yards and a TD, while looking just as slick as he did in last years Super Bowl. Except for that stupid moustache come beard thing he's sporting now. You're not rock and roll Aaron. AC/DC will not be calling anytime soon. "Rookie" Graham Harrell (he's 26 and played in the pre-season last year) then came in and finished the game 12/21 for 85 yards, an interception, but also a touchdown with just 35 seconds left on the clock, followed by a two point conversion.
The Packers then caught the Colts napping with an onside kick, demonstrating the lack of game management from Colts Head Coach Jim Caldwell that hurt his team at times last year.
Both defenses did well. The Packers had 4 sacks, one by Clay Matthews and the other three coming from rookies. The Colts D produced 5, including two for Dwight Freeney and one for former Bear Tommie Harris. This is definitely a positive sign, given that in the Peyton Manning era the defense has often let down the rest of the team.
Finally for today we have the Rams @ Chiefs. Quarterback Sam Bradford looked ok for the Rams, throwing 9/16 for 95 yards and 2 touchdowns, but also a dangerous interception while backed up near his own goal line, as he failed to see the grossly under rated linebacker Derrick Johnson lurking in underneath coverage. Johnson also had a sack. Rams back up A.J. Feely was 8/13 for 65 yards and an interception.
The Rams rushing attack did much better though. Steven Jackson turned 15 carries into 72 yards while Cadillac Williams carried 12 times for 53 yards. Rookie Tight End Lance Kendricks has been making me look good for calling him better than Kyle Rudolph and he continued that theme against the Chiefs with 2 catches for 26 yards and a touchdown. On defense, rookie defensive end Robert Quinn restored my rookie predicting karma to zero, by defying my criticism of him and having a sack/fumble, plus blocking a field goal.
But then on the Chiefs side Ricky Stanzi tried to get me back on the plus side for this game, finally pulling his finger out of his arse to throw 8/14 for 121 yards and a lovely touchdown pass, with no interceptions. Keep it up. Matt Cassel meanwhile wallowed in his own personal well of mediocrity, with 6/13 for 59 yards. Tip; when you make Tyler Palko look good (7/12, 92 yards) then you're doing something very wrong.
That's it for today. If you think I'm doing all of Saturdays games in one marathon chunk tomorrow then you've got another thing coming. I'll likely be back Monday night (technically Tuesday morning here). Till then, have a good weekend, enjoy the football and don't forget to hit the Facebook-like-button-thingy at the bottom.
So with the labor dispute still rolling on, that means free agency seems a long way off still. Which is lucky in a way because it gives me a chance to finish doing my preview series. We've reached the AFC West now, with just the AFC North to go. So starting with;
Denver Broncos:
What a 2010 the Broncos had. After what seemed on the face of it like a season to build on in '09, the Broncos traded away Brandon Marshall and went out and spent a first round pick in the 2010 draft on Tim Tebow. Then everything fell apart.
Finishing the season 4-12 and minus a Head Coach, Broncos fans are looking on bleakly at 2011. The hiring of Broncos legend John Elway as "Executive Vice President of Football Operations" did little to quell those fears, not least because while Elway may have been a great QB and is co-owner of an arena league team, he has no experience of high level football operations in the NFL.
The only thing left for fans to concern themselves with was who would be hired as the teams next Head Coach. There were plenty of names out there, including some very talented coordinator level candidates. The choices were pretty open. The Broncos decided to go with John Fox, of 2-14 Carolina Panthers fame, and my arch Nemesis when it comes to picking winners. Hearts across Colorado sunk.
But they mustn't be so hasty. For start, the Broncos look set to come out of free agency probably better off than any other team in the league. They have just five players on the unrestricted list; Defensive Tackles Marcus Thomas and Ronald Fields, OT Ryan Harris, RB Laurence Maroney and FB Kyle Eckel. That's literally it.
That means that Denver is likely to head into 2011 with almost its entire team intact. Even though they have a new Head Coach and coordinator line up, the fact that everyone on the team knows each other should help to make the transition easier.
It doesn't hurt either that they have the 2nd overall pick in this years draft. There is much speculation as to where they might go with this, but given Fox is a defensive minded coach, I can't see that pick going anywhere other than the defensive side of the ball. The most likely choice will either be a D-tackle or a linebacker, two positions which will probably consume most of the teams attention in the draft, possibly along with offensive line and tight end.
So for 2011, the Broncos actually look in pretty good shape. They get OT Ryan Clady back from injury for a start. The lingering question is who will line up under center; Kyle Orton or Tim Tebow? I'll hedge my bets and say that it's not going to be Brady Quinn. Orton will stake a claim based on his performance in recent seasons. Tebow also showed promise, but he's still young and his playing time was limited. To be honest I don't envy John Fox having to make the choice.
I still hate Fox though. So there. Either way, expect the Broncos to make a surprise challenge for AFC West glory. I'm tellin' ya!
Kansas City Chiefs:
Most Kansas City fans looked on glumly as the 2010 season rolled around. Then a surprise upset of San Diego set the tone for what would become a 10-6 season that stunned everyone and saw the Chiefs roll into the playoffs. Of course it all fell apart from there, but it's the thought that counts.
The start of the 2011 season will, however, return most Chiefs fans back to their almost ingrained state of pessimism. You only have to look at their list of potential free agents. Thankfully they tied up Tamba Hali with the franchise tag, but the rest of the list makes for ominous reading.
And no, I'm not talking about QB Brodie Croyle. Charlie Anderson, Corey Mays and Mike Vrabel are the linebackers potentially on the way out. There's wide receivers Terrence Cooper and Kevin Curtis. There's CB Travis Daniels and FS Jon McGraw. NT Ron Edwards. DE Shaun Smith. TE Leonard Pope. OT Ryan O'Callaghan. FB Tim Castille. And finally Centers Rudy Niswanger and Casey Wiegmann. I probably missed someone out amongst all that, but you get the idea.
The Chiefs will potentially have no trained center for 2011, along with only just enough linemen to field the required 5. They'll be left with about 4 D-linemen as well by the look of it.
In the draft, Kansas doesn't pick till number 21 which doesn't exactly leave them with much room to play when it comes to drafting down. That's a problem, because the Chiefs need players. They're probably gonna end up fishing in free agency to make up the difference.
They have only two quarterbacks, none of which people should really trust too much (Matt Cassel is not a Pro Bowl quarterback). They have two great backs, but absolutely no true depth at the position. At wide out they're relying on Dwayne Bowe and Chris Chambers to stay healthy, because if either of those two go then their next best receiver is Dexter McCluster, who is good, but is also more of a slot receiver type as opposed to a down field beast. Their O-line has a strong core (Albert, Lilja, Asamoah), it just doesn't have anything else.
They have no D-line anymore. Glenn Dorsey can only fit one spot at a time. The linebacking corps is ok, and if they can keep restricted free agent Brandon Carr then they won't be too bad at corner or safety. They could use some more depth, but at least the starting lineup should repeat the strong showing from last year, providing the Chiefs shore up that D-line, possibly with the aid of a first round pick.
For 2011 then? A lot is riding on the offense, including the ability of Todd Haley and Offensive Coordinator Bill Muir to finally mold that unit into something useful. Last year they absolutely thrived off the back of running backs Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, only to consistently shoot themselves in the foot by turning their back completely on the running game (see the playoff game versus Baltimore for a prime example).
On that note, 2011 is anybodies guess. It might be another 10-6 year in the making. Maybe more? But I'm afraid I'm going to be a little more restrained and say that the Chiefs will probably slump again in 2011, especially if they don't get their respective lines sorted.
Oakland Raiders:
Just think, without Al Davis and the Raiders who would we all laugh at? That's true, the Redskins. But it's not as much fun as the annual saga that is the Oakland Raiders. This time they fooled us all by having their best season in a while and going 8-8, playing some half decent football along the way. Then right on cue, Al Davis fired the coach who had made it all happen, Tom Cable.
Now the Raiders are back to square one. Hue Jackson will be the latest person to step up and take on the challenge of being the Head Coach at possibly one of the worst run teams in the NFL. Good luck with that Hue. Judging by your free agent list, you're gonna need it.
Nnamdi Asomugha is the most obvious name. As yet the Raiders haven't used their franchise tag, if that tag even exists when free agency resumes. The deadline for applying it is passed, so unless there is some new provision for putting it in, then the Raiders appear to be happy to let Asomugha walk. That's surprising to say the least, given the Raiders usual lack of qualms when it comes to splashing big dollar amounts on players.
Also on the unrestricted list is QB Bruce Gradkowski, Offensive Tackles Khalif Barnes, Mario Henderson and Langston Walker, Center Samson Satele, TE Zach Miller, FS Michael Huff and a few other names.
The net result is a Raiders team looking suspect in 2011. The draft is going to be interesting, not least because the Raiders traded away their first round pick to the Patriots (part of the Richard Seymour deal). They could really use another tight end, especially if Miller is snapped up, a decent wide receiver to play opposite Jacoby Ford, a new offensive tackle (or two. Or three), a center, another linebacker and one or two decent corners. In short, a hell of a lot.
So what does 2011 hold for the Raider nation? Jesus, I dread to think. Much is obviously riding on Hue Jackson, who we know little about in this kind of lead role. Personally the Raiders currently strike me as one of those teams that consists of a collection of talented names (to a degree), but is a long way from being a team. A long way. If they finish bottom of the AFC West I wouldn't be surprised.
San Diego Chargers:
In the end, the Chargers finished 2010 at 9-7. But few people would doubt that it was not what the Chargers had hoped for from the season. Special teams mishaps in particular killed more than just the one game. Phillip Rivers was good in general, as was the defense. Statistically the Chargers clocked up yards on one side of the ball and almost refused to give them up on the other. But points mean prizes in the NFL, not yards. And in points the Chargers were found wanting.
If free agency finally happens in 2011, it's not going to go well for the Chargers.
WR Vincent Jackson is locked up with the franchise tag. But Legedu Naanee is on the way out, along with Malcom Floyd and Kelly Washington. Linebackers Antwan Barnes, Kevin Burnett, Stephen Cooper, Brandon Moore and Brandon Siler are off. DE Jacques Cesaire and Travis Johnson might be joining them. So will TE Randy McMichael. RB Darren Sproles is on the list. Safeties Tyrone Carter, Paul Oliver, Pat Watkins and Eric Weddle will probably go as well.
That's a lot of talent being dropped off the cart right there.
In the draft the Chargers pick at number 18 overall. They could use a young QB, if only to serve as a backup to Phillips Rivers. They need a half decent receiver for depth. The offensive line has been a perpetual weakness. The D-line looks gutted. They'll be short at defensive back if they can't bring back some of their free agents. And they really, really need to find someone to captain that special teams unit!
Other than that, all is well. No really, all is well. The defense might take a bit of a pounding in 2011, but they still have Phillip Rivers throwing the ball, with Vincent Jackson, Patrick Crayton and Antonio Gates playing catch. Jacob Hester is still one of the best Fullbacks in the league right now, and Ryan Matthews is a promising young running back.
It's more a question then of whether the Chargers can avoid a) shooting themselves in the foot on special teams and b) avoid giving up large blocks of points on defense. If they can handle those two things, you have to think the Chargers have yet another great shot at winning the division.
----
In other news, just briefly, I've heard that the NFLPA is prodding an old horse again, looking for congress to bust the NFL's anti-trust exemption when it comes to negotiating TV rights. The result would be that each team would then be able to sell the rights to it's home games individually.
That would, frankly, be the worst possible news for the players. It would mean teams like the Cowboys, Steelers, Giants and Jets could rake in huge sums for their home games, which wouldn't be shared with the likes of Detroit and Buffalo. While in many ways a full free market system would help the teams, that depends highly on them continuing to share TV money.
Honestly, sometimes I just despair at the complete lack of brains that the players and their representatives seem to display.
Better late than never they always say. Unless of course your commuting a sentence to a prisoner on death row, in which case late is probably worse than never. On that note, let's recap Sunday's action.
Baltimore Ravens 30 @ Kansas City Chiefs 7
I needed to check something after the game just to be sure and indeed on inspecting the official game book I was right. Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles did only get 2 carries in the second half. This is the same Jamaal Charles who carried the ball 7 times for 87 yards and a TD in the first half. That's an average of 12.4 yards per carry.
This is why I have absolutely no sympathy for the Chiefs, their offensive Coordinator Charlie Weis or Head Coach Todd Haley. I understand, trust me I do, that the nuances of coaching are not always apparent to the naked eye or to the cold data of the end of game statistics. But I also know this much; Jamaal Charles should have carried the ball more than just twice in the second half.
It's ludicrous. It's absolutely inexcusable.
Coaches are incredibly fond, as are most professional people, of believing that their job is so difficult it couldn't possibly be done by a lay person. Of course in most professions the technical details and tweaks are beyond most untrained individuals. But there also things about coaching, like a number of professions, that are so damn obvious even the least trained and only partially knowledgeable person could point out.
Like Jamaal Charles being the Keystone of the Chiefs offense for instance. Or the fact that despite some impressive performances this season, there is absolutely no way in hell that Matt Cassel should be considered a Pro Bowl QB by any sane person. Good, I can live with. But Pro Bowl? Give me a damn break!
Actually Cassel did, by going 9/18 for 70 yards and throwing 3 interceptions. Ugh! Charles ended the day with 9 carries for 82 yards and a TD. Yes, he lost yards, thanks to two bad plays. Thomas Jones, the other high quality back for the Chiefs received just 5 carries for 15 yards. It's just such an absolute joke.
But it had started with promise (sort of) when the Chiefs got after the Ravens QB Joe Flacco in the first quarter and Tamba Hali (remember him from the preview yesterday?) got the sack and forced fumble. Hali ended the game with 2 sacks, a forced fumble, an additional QB hit and a pass defended. But he's not good enough for the Pro Bowl apparently (I'll let it go in 2012). Linebacker JovanBelcher also had 1.5 sacks for the Chiefs, along with 2 tackles for loss and 2 further QB hits, while Eric Berry (watch list) recorded 4 of the Chiefs 6 passes defended, including a TD saving dive.
But anyway, back to the Chiefs offense. After recovering the fumble the Chiefs got the ball and on the second play of the drive the Chiefs ran the old stretch play to the left, sending Charles rumbling 41 yards for the TD. It was only his second carry of the game. He followed it up later with carries of 11, 8 and 9 yards.
Then he rumbled 4 yards and was stripped by Terrence Cody (yes, Mount Cody, the 350 odd pound Defensive Tackle) who fell on top of him to finish the play! But that's ok. Explosive runners like Charles occasionally fumble the ball. That's just one of those things you have to live with. Especially when Charles came back on the Chiefs next possession and put his bad play behind him by running for 11 yards.
Then nothing.
That was it. Apart from his 2 carries in the second half, that's all Charles got. How is that possible. How is that a back whose shortest run was 4 yards doesn't get to touch the ball more in the second half? And you can argue that the Chiefs ended up behind and needed to get back in the game, but judging by his average Charles was the best shot the Chiefs had!
It just makes no sense to me. Like the Ravens obsession with making Joe Flacco throw the ball 25 times before half time every game. At least this time Flacco actually started to make something happen, finishing the game 25/34 for 265 yards and 2 touchdowns. Ray Rice had 17 carries for 57 yards. Willis McGahee added another 44 yards and a TD on 10 carries.
Terrell Suggs was the Ravens difference maker on defense. 2 sacks, 2 tackles for loss and 4 quarterback hits helped to keep the Chiefs offense in check, at least outside of that brief period in the first half when Jamaal Charles was absolutely hanging the Ravens D out to dry. Ray Lewis also pitched in as you might expect, with a sack, tackles for loss, a QB hit and forced fumble.
All in all, the Chiefs were their own worst enemy. According to the well known and much respected Ancient Greek Writer Pausanias, there was an inscription made in the forecourt of the Temple of Apollo, at Delphi. It simply translates as "Know Thyself". This of course echo's the famous saying by Chinese General, Politician and Strategist, Sun Tzu;
"So it is said that if you know others and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles." (Page 82, The Art of War, translated by ThomasCleary, Shambhala Dragon Editions).
The Chiefs may or may not have known the enemy, but they appeared to know little about themselves and as a result a glorious opportunity to energise the Kansas fan base with a playoff win was lost, through no fault but their own. That means that Baltimore now heads to Heinz Field to play Pittsburgh in what promises to be a great rivalry game, while the Jets head to Foxborough for a similarly chop licking encounter.
Green Bay Packers 21 @ Philadelphia Eagles 16
The NFL's golden boy is no more. Well, he's not in the playoffs anymore at least. It was a close run thing though. With just a little over 30 seconds remaining, Vick threw the ball up into the endzone where it was picked off by Tramon Williams. One of the key components in the rebirth of the Packers defense this year cemented his reputation by sealing the win.
A win that showed the Packers still have some versatility on offense. The worry coming into this game was that they would become one dimensional in the playoffs, unable to relieve the pressure on Aaron Rodgers and the passing game. Rookie RB James Starks put that to bed with 23 carries for 123 tough yards.
This helped to keep the chains moving and set up Aaron Rodgers to go 18/27 for 180 yards and 3 touchdowns. Hitting 9 different receivers over the course of the game, Rodgers did enough with the passing game to help secure the win. The Packers also owe a lot to their defense.
Clay Matthews and co. pulled off some vital sacks and of course won the game with the sole interception of Vick. In the end the league MVP candidate completed just 20/36 for for 292 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. On the ground he mustered just 33 yards and a sneaked TD on 8 carries. LeSean McCoy was held to 46 yards off 12 carries. DeSean Jackson had 2 catches for 47 yards. The Eagles defense managed only 2 sacks.
In a way, it was a bit disappointing. I was kind of expecting the loser of this game to go down in a blaze of glory, on the bad end of a 45-42 shootout. Instead we got quite a conservative score from two teams well known for lighting up the opposition and the Eagles dropped out of the playoffs in something of a damp squib. That now means that the Packers progress to face Atlanta in the Georgia Dome, while Seattle will travel to Soldier Field to face Chicago.
Now in other news:
-- According to NBC's Mike Florio, Mike Mayock is a Genius. The qualification for this prestigious award? Not writing off the Seahawks as many had done and instead giving them a "fighters chance" in their playoff game against the Saints. My question then is thus; given that I too gave the Seahawks a fighters chance, does that make me a genius in Florio's eyes as well? Especially given that my rookie watch list scored a few more hits than Mayock did with the draft. Wheres my big TV contract?
-- We finish today with another article from ProFootballTalk.com, who finally seem to have realised something that I pointed out a long time ago; the NFLPA can prevent a lockout anytime they wish. To quote specifically from their article;
"Of course, the ability of the union to decertify and block a lockout also makes a lockout less likely. Union officials continuously gloss over that fact. NFLPA spokesman George Atallah has said that the union prefers to work out a new Collective Bargaining Agreement over decertifying."
Whatever the NFLPA may "prefer", the fact still remains that any talk of a lockout is utter nonsense fabricated by the NFLPA. They have within their power the ability to block a lockout at any time and so, if indeed a lockout occurs in 2011, it will be the fault of the players and not the owners.
I don't particularly like defending the owners because let's face it, they're the ones who charge you $30 to park and $100 to go and watch pre-season games. But I also appreciate two things:
1) Honesty is more important than prejudices,
2) The reason the owners charge so much money for parking fees is because the players wages are so damn inflated.
New Orleans Saints 36 @ Seattle Seahawks 41
Ho-ly-sh... you get the idea. I said it. I didn't think they'd do it but the Seahawks just came out, let it all go and it paid off big time. They dug into their bag of tricks and came out with some unusual stuff. Fake screens, hook-and-spin routes etc, with a healthy dose of shocking defense by the Saints.
But the real point that should be made, the real winner here, was the determination and sheer effort by the Seahawks players. We often talk about these kind of things on blogs, in books and on TV. You see hokey films about pulling together and going all out for one another, but nobody ever seems to put the words into practice. You see people try, then give up. Well the Seahawks didn't.
They gave us a shining example of mental strength pushing the body to new levels and how teamwork & hustle can truly make a big difference in football. Marshawn Lynch's TD run was a great demonstration of that as QB Matt Hasselbeck was among those Seahawks racing down the field to help their team mate get the score.
We can't forget completely about the losers though. We have to take our collective hats off I think (gentlemen, if you please) to the New Orleans Saints offense. Without his starting running backs Drew Brees was forced to throw 39/60 (sixty!!) for 404 yards and 2 TD's with no interceptions. It was a huge effort and let's not overlook the fact that traditionally speaking, when you score 36 points, you have a tendency to win a lot of games.
So I wouldn't begrudge the Saints offense for shooting some killer looks at the defense who were about as stout, rugged and effective as a drill bit made from chocolate. The tackling, the coverage, the whole works. It was just all around poor defense. I dunno, maybe defensive coordinator Greg Williams was distracted this week with potential job offers on the table, but man, that defense just wasn't the same as it was last year. They looked like the 2008 group that stunk it up on a regular basis.
So now the Seahawks progress to the divisional round. Up next? If Green Bay wins the other NFC Wildcard game on Sunday, then the Seahawks head to Chicago. If the Eagles win, the Seahawks have a date with Atlanta. In the meantime the Seahawks and their fans have time to boogey:
New York Jets 17 @ Indianapolis Colts 16
Some how, some way, the Jets did it. Mark Sanchez was awful. 18/31 for 189 yards and an INT. He was throwing loose passes all over the field and was lucky not to get picked off more than just the once. But fate has a funny way of twisting at this time of year.
The Colts ran the ball. And kept running it.
I know that I've often suggested that the Colts might benefit from running a little more, but this isn't quite what I had in mind. Actually, scrap that. This is nothing like what I had in mind.
27 runs? By the colts? And Manning threw just 18/26? What? The most mind boggling for me was the Colts approach on third down. When I think of predominantly pass first teams like the Colts running the ball, I'm thinking first and second down. Maybe the occasional sneaky run on third down. But to go for a near all out attack on third down using the run? No, surely not.
It doesn't matter if I had one yard to go, two, three, four, or eight, whatever, I would be trusting that down and our offenses continued possession of the ball to Peyton Manning. I certainly wouldn't be overly keen to be handing the ball off to Dominic Rhodes. Joseph Addai I can live with, but I'd much rather see Addai in pass protection or running a route on 3rd down, with my golden boy surveying the field and doing his thing.
Not so the Jets, who apparently got sick and tired of Sanchez throwing the ball to invisible receivers and thus decided to break out their rushing attack for a change. You remember right, that same rushing attack that allowed them to somewhat protect Sanchez last season and helped them to get to the AFC Championship game? Yeah that one.
LaDanianTomlinson. That's all I'm saying.
Ok, I'll say a little more. 16 carries, 82 yards, 2 TD's. The guy looks fresh and ready to roll in these playoffs. Just when everyone has smacked Tomlinson down once more, along come the Jets to remind everyone that essentially the offensive line dictates a big part of how many yards a running back gets. Thus guys like Tomlinson have little to fear. He still has the burst to hit a hole and fall forwards for yards, possibly for another 2 or 3 years providing there is no major upheaval in the Jets O-line.
Now finally I'd like to end on a complaint, or two, because God knows I love me a moan. The first issue in question is the "roughing the kicker" called against the Colts. I appreciate that under the letter of the law, that was a penalty. I'm not disputing that. But what I will dispute is that in the offseason that rule needs to be changed.
If that degree of contact is what constitutes "roughing" in the modern world, then for the last 10 years or so, anytime I've ever got off a bus during the rush hour I've committed numerous fouls for "roughing". In my opinion, the Colts rusher was making an active attempt to pull up at the end and avoid any serious, hard hitting collision with the kicker. Or to put it another way, he could have just drilled the guys standing leg and left him in a crippled heap, but he didn't.
Contact like this, while only a very small part of the game, helps to enforce the wider image that the NFL is turning "soft". If the league is going to continue to be as successful as it has been, it needs to hold onto the fans it has and that means reversing this trend of perceived or actual "softness" in the game.
The second thing I want to bitch about is the Colts calling a timeout with 29 seconds left as the Jets were driving for the winning field goal. My question is simply; why? On the sidelines, Manning looked pissed off and I can sympathise with that. It set up a pass by Sanchez to Edwards on the next play, which set the Jets up for a 32-yard field goal to win the game.
It just blows the mind sometimes. Do the Colts not have a plan for this? Why do team keep making these critical errors in time management, week after damn week? Given the huge salaries involved, as an owner I would be chewing glass right about now, wondering what in the hell I was forking out the big bucks for given that I could probably hire a high school coach to come in and manage the clock better than that, at far less expense.
But enough complaining, at least for now. As the number six seed, the Jets will now go on to play Tom Brady and the Patriots. Maybe Rex was right? Maybe he does have a Super Bowl winning team at hand. I'll wait and see how Sanchez gets on first if that's ok everyone.
And onto the preview of Sunday's games.
Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs (1:00pm ET, CBS) (6:00pm GMT, Sky Sports 2)
The Ravens at the Chiefs, as running game clashes with running game. What intrigues me, because I'm a sad git who gets intrigued by otherwise uninteresting things, is the style clash that will take place between the three main runners on Sunday.
First we have Jamaal Charles of the Chiefs. Charles is all about the speed. In the open field he can light teams up just as easily as Chris Johnson of the Titans. Typically with Charles you'll see the Chiefs run a "stretch" style play, where the offensive line all moves in one direction at the snap, looking to get the jump on their respective D-linemen and seal them inside using what we call a "reach" block. The idea is to cutoff the defense, pin them inside and then let Charles go flying around the outside and up the field with his speed.
Thomas Jones of the Chiefs is very different. Coming from the Jets last year and, if we're honest, getting a little long in the tooth right now, Jones is more of you inside style rusher. Typically you'll see the Chiefs start off moving in one direction, similar to the stretch play above, but with a tight end and/or a fullback coming back against the flow to help kick out defenders on the backside and create a void up the middle for Jones, where he can use his power, toughness and, let's face it, big brass balls to drive right through the heart of the defense and off to pay dirt.
My favourite though is Ray Rice of the Ravens. Why? Because (shut up, I know) normally with running backs, their success is tied very closely to their offensive line. Or to put it another way, unless you happen by chance to be a ghost it's physically impossible to run through a wall of 300 pound offensive and defensive linemen standing shoulder to shoulder.
This is the major problem that Chris Johnson has had in Tennessee this year. Every time they call a run the Titans O-line seems to get wadded up in a bunch, which is a win for the defense. With no gaps between the linemen, it makes it very easy for the linebackers to read the play. All they have to do is flow towards the gaps at the two ends of the bunch and boom, dead play. Coincidentally the Ravens D happens to be quite good at doing just that.
But the thing with Ray Rice is, he seems to possess an extraordinary vision on such plays for finding the tiny little cracks in the defense. His lateral quickness combined with that vision allows Rice to to squirm through creases that other running backs can't, if they even see them in first place. Credit to Rice for that.
But the question still lingers, who might win such a battle? Well if I'm honest, the Ravens appear have the advantage. We know both teams can run the ball and that both teams struggle a little when throwing, but the Ravens D gives them the clear edge.
That's not to say that the Chiefs have a weak defense, but they're simply not the Ravens. They can both bring pressure on the quarterback and both teams have playmakers in the back end, but critically in what could prove to be a ground and pound game, the Ravens run defense has the edge.
The Ravens finished the regular season as the number 5 defense against the run. The Chiefs came in at number 14.
So if it turns out to be a grind 'em down style field position battle, you probably have to give Baltimore the advantage. There is hope however for the Chiefs. An early score could tempt the Ravens into throwing a little more and as we've seen this season they're pass protection still leaves something to be desired. That gives Tamba Hali the open shot he needs to get in and cause some havoc.
Hali topped the AFC for sacks in the regular season with 14.5 (only DeMarcus Ware finished ahead of him in the NFC, with 15.5). Add to that the hidden effect of numerous QB hits and pressures which go largely unnoticed on the stat sheets (someone at one of the big networks needs to fix this), and you have a recipe for forcing Joe Flacco into some bad throws. The Chiefs have the people in the secondary to make Flacco pay, and so the Chiefs could be set up to pull off the next huge upset in the 2010 season Wildcard weekend.
We'll see. The winner has a date lined up with the Steelers...
Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles (4:30pm ET, FOX) (9:30pm GMT, Sky Sports 2)
The Packers and the Eagles clash in what bizarrely many people are touting as the true NFC Championship game. I think the Falcons and Bears might have something to say about that (and the Seahawks I guess). Still though, it is a hell of a clash to be having in the wildcard weekend. Michael Vick, the NFL's golden ticket for redemption (and advertising revenues) up against Aaron Rodgers, the successor to Brett Favre.
So how good are these teams?
The Eagles destroyed the Redskins in a style that you would expect of a great team. They also produced the miracle at the New Meadowlands, coming back from almost certain defeat at the hands of what was a very strong Giants team (10-6 with one of the better defenses out there) to storm to victory.
The Packers caliber is much more subtle. Consider that the Patriots are widely touted as the best team in the NFL right now, and that the Packers managed to run their game against the Patriots very close, all without the aid of starting QB Aaron Rodgers.
'The Pack' are also one of those rare teams that has great strength on both sides of the ball. They have a great offense that is more than capable of getting into a shootout with any team in the league. But on defense they are also pretty sound. The development of corners Tramon Williams and Sam Shields has had a huge impact for them. When you then consider that their front seven is up there among the best, easily at home alongside the Ravens and the Steelers, and you have a seriously solid all around team.
Not quite the same story in Philadelphia. The Eagles have Mike Vick. They have DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy and James Harrison (don't knock the guy). But on defense it begins to get a little flimsy. While Trent Cole, Juqua Parker and Darryl Tapp form the backbone of a formidable pass rush, the Eagles have still been found wanting on the back end this season, and their rush defense has at times been very poor.
All things considered I think the Packers have the edge going into this game, but as we've seen this season, not least in this wildcard weekend, anything is possible on any given Sunday. Could the X factor that is Michael Vick tip the balance? Will Aaron Rodgers simply stroll onto the field and tear apart the Eagles secondary? Maybe DeSean Jackson will have a few big run backs in the kicking game?
Guess we'll all just have to grab a beer (Amaretto for me please), sit back, relax and tune in to what is proving to be one of the most intriguing seasons in recent memory. I'll be back tomorrow for a full recap.
"So," I said to myself, "what can I write about today?"
I considered taking the night off, being that I've practically posted daily articles for the last 13 months or so. But then I sat down, watched another segment of the NFL Networks "Playbook" show (a gold mine for the so-called 'all 22' film) and suddenly I was struck by a moment of inspiration. Allow me to explain.
Many weeks ago I picked on the Colts because they were without doubt the most heinous criminals for committing "offensive pass interference". I say 'were' because I'm now fairly sure that the Patriots have not only surpassed them in this regard, but absolutely whopped their butts.
The question however came up in the comments as to what exactly constitutes "offensive pass interference"? Well, as I'm led to believe it, the rule states that on a passing play, offensive players may not block a defensive player beyond the line of scrimmage until the intended receiver has caught the ball.
And that's where my moment of inspiration came in. In the segment about the coming Week 17 clash between the Raiders and the Chiefs, Joe Theismann was showing some tape to highlight the play of Chiefs rookie tight end Tony Moeaki. What he did was to inadvertently drop into my lap a perfect example of what offensive pass interference or "pick" plays look like.
The play in question superficially resembles a play that is popular in the college game, often referred to as a "mesh" play. In the images we're going to look at, the two middle receivers who crossover and "mesh" are doing so a little further down the field than the true college play, but the principle is very similar.
At this juncture I should point out as usual that these images are screen captures from the NFL Networks "Playbook" show and that these images have not been edited in any way by myself. All graphics, symbols and any other stuff in the image was made and added to the film by the networks computer wizards. The original video can be found here.
Right. We'll start with our first image (as is customary) which, thanks to the Playbook crew and my impeccable sense of timing with the Print Screen button, shows roughly how the two inside routes will crossover. The player in the lower circle is Tony Moeaki. The design of this little combo is simple; crossover in midfield, with the receiver who goes slightly deeper "picking" or "rubbing" the trail defender off of his team mate.
You can already see in the image below that the path of the receiver going over the top will lead him to collide with the defender covering Moeaki. We shall call this receiver "the pick man" (how very inventive Chris):
The next image is important but you're going to have look closely. Other than catching "the Pick Man" in a still shot that makes him look like he's half way through doing a rain dance, we don't appear to have gained a lot from this shot. But we have, trust me. What you need to look at is "Pick Man's" right foot which is, for all intents and purposes, on the 31 yard line. His left foot is in the air. It should be pointed out that he has already made his break to run across the field.
Now compare and contrast the image above with the image below. We can see clearly that "Pick man" has stepped with his left foot all the way out to the 33 yard line. He basically took a leap two yards to his left. But why do this in the middle of your route? It makes no sense. You're sacrificing all that speed and separation you built up, just to take a step to the left? Why?
The answer can be found in our last image. Look how much space has been opened up for Moeaki to make the clean catch. (For those that are wondering, the red glowing blob is the ball, and not a radioactive hotdog from the Broncos concession stands). The separation was a result of the deeper receiver "picking" or "rubbing" the defender off of Moeaki.
Hopefully now when you watch the video you'll see what I mean. In fact, it's a very blatant side step designed to manufacture an open receiver.
Now call me old fashioned, but I like to see people win fairly. I like to know that the game I'm watching is a contest between two teams that are giving it their all and who know the rules and will abide by them in the interest of a good, fair game.
Instead what I'm seeing increasingly is a flexing of the rules, almost always favouring the offense. Now as I've said before, if the league doesn't mind this kind of offensive pass interference and wants this kind of thing to be legal then that's fine. But make it legal, in writing, in the rule book.
But as things stand, this is just as illegal as a defensive back knocking over a receiver just as he's about to catch a pass 10 yards down field, before the ball even reaches him.
Add this kind of thing (which it appears almost all teams are doing and getting away with now) to the new emphasis on defenseless receivers and then all the silly penalties for "roughing the passer" every time one gets tapped even slightly on the head, and what we have is an outright and irrefutable case that the NFL is legislating in favour of (or in this case failing to legislate against) the offenses of the league.
The reasons might be many, but just taking a wild guess in the dark I would say it has a lot to do with making the game "more exciting", providing you enjoy watching basketball played on grass (or artificial turf), which I imagine the league is hoping will bump audiences and thus revenues.
Call me cynical, because basically I am, but this to me is getting beyond a joke. As I see it, the fairness is being sapped from a game I love watching in favour of artificial offense and a desire for higher scoring games.
Which sucks.
P.S. Keep watching the 'Playbook' video past this incident, keeping an eye out for the segment where Brian Baldinger brings up the Chiefs defensive back field. It highlights rookies Eric Berry, Kendrick Lewis and Javier Arenas. Eric Berry was no surprise this season but the other two -- especially Lewis -- have been to most people, as Baldinger points out. I'd now just like to take this opportunity then to point you in the direction of my rookie watch list, where all 3 of those players have been sitting since before week 1.
It's nice being right. Sometimes.
Just to start off I want to draw your attention to an article from the Associated Press that was posted on NFL.com.
It's about female reporter Ines Sainz, who during a visit to the Jets facility - including their locker room - alleges that she was the recipient of various whistles and cat calls, and that when she was out observing practice on the field both coaches and players made an undue effort to throw the ball so that it would be caught near to where she was standing. Overall she is said to have felt "uncomfortable".
Apparently the NFL is looking into it, but I really think someone should be looking into the Associated Press. As I read the article I encountered numerous instances of what I would consider to be selective reporting, designed to make Sainz appear as the type of lady who would encourage inappropriate attention.
References are made to photos posted of her in swim wear on her Networks website and they make a point of ignoring any good/well known work she may have done with regards to football journalism in favour of mentioning the time she measured Steve Breastons bicep at the Super Bowl and the fact that she once mistakenly referred to the Giants as the Jets.
If mistaking a teams name innocently - just a slip of the tongue/mind etc - is a sin, then every reporter who has ever worked in sports and every writer who has ever written about football is in the same boat. In my opinion - for what it's worth - the article was written in such a way as to portray Sainz in a bad light. And I'd expect much better from the Associated Press. And the NFL.
Now, time to recap Monday nights games and see if I've recovered a morsel of hope in my picks:
Ravens 10 @ Jets 9 -- Hmm, high scorer this one. And so much for the Jets Super Bowl bid. One loss doesn't preclude a team from winning the big one, but that offense sure does look shaky. In fact shaky is not the right word. Terrible would be the right word.
They made the Browns look productive. Sanchez finished 10/21 for 74 yards. JerrichoCotchery was their leading receiver with 18 yards from 2 catches. On the ground it was slightly more impressive. LaDanianTomlinson carried 11 times for 62 yards, which is more than Ray Rice achieved for the Ravens with 21 carries (for 43 yards). Flacco in the end proved the difference, bouncing back from early mishaps to register 20/38 for 248 yards and an INT. Willis McGahee finally punched in the games only TD.
Defense seemed to rule, mainly the Jets, as they struggled to keep "Air Flacco" grounded (AnquanBoldin finished with 7 catches for 110 yards). Leading the Jets was LB Bryan Thomas with 7 tackles, 2 assists and 1.5 sacks. DE Shaun Ellis came up with 5 tackles, 2 assists, a half sack and a forced fumble. Bart Scott (6 tackles, 3 assists, 1 forced fumble), Eric Smith (6 tackles, 3 assists) and Jim Leonhard (6 tackles) also did well.
For the Ravens the stats are low, but in a sense that's a good thing. It means they did the job effectively and didn't allow the Jets to put on many sustained drives. Terrell Suggs (4 tackles, 2 assists, a half sack and a forced fumble) and HalotiNgata (3 tackles, 1 assist and a sack) are notable.
Chargers 14 @ Chiefs 21 -- I had some faith in the Chiefs. But after beating the Chargers, I now have less faith in them. This is caused by watching their defense play and realising that at times the Chargers receivers could have stood downfield swinging a ball and chain around their heads without any fear of ever hitting a Chiefs defender. Couple that with the Chiefs meagre tackling and it's nothing short of a miracle that they came away from this one with a win.
Well, a miracle plus the longest punt return for a TD in team history. Plus triple covering Antonio Gates on the final play of the game. And that's the trouble with the Chargers. At times they breezed through the Chiefs defense like... me going through coffee. But then they got to the moment when it really counts with just 20 yards between them and a score and they bottled it.
Philip Rivers ended the game with 22/39 for 298 yards and 2 TDs. Rookie running back Ryan Matthews (watch list) carried the ball 19 times for 75 yards, but it would appear the Chargers are still not prepared to let go of their passing game, even in the red zone. LegeduNaanee led all receivers with 5 catches for 110 yards and a TD.
Chiefs QB Matt Cassel had a relatively dismal outing, ending 10/22 for 68 yards and a TD. Jamaal Charles demonstrated his burst in the open field, rushing for 92 yards and a TD off 11 carries, including a 56 yard scoot for the score.
Defensively Chargers Safety Steve Gregory led his team in tackles with 7 and LB Shaun Phillips pitched in well with 5 tackles and a sack. For the Chiefs it was LB Derrick Johnson who stood out, with 11 tackles, an assist and a forced fumble.
That then wraps up week 1 in the NFL, leaving me a craptacular 6/10 for my picks. Never fear, the season is young. And we've learnt... stuff. And this is the big problem with week 1. Do we really believe the Texans are going to spend the rest of the season as a rush first offense? Actually they probably will, just to spite me. I hate the Texans.
Have a great day everyone.
Right, it's Friday night, which means prediction time. My first set of predictions to actually be heard by the world (or maybe even just one random passer by).
No time to waste, let's get down to it:
Green Bay @ Cleveland -- I hear D'Qwell Jackson has been placed on injured reserve. That's pretty much it then for Cleveland. Short of some kind of miracle involving Josh Cribbs in the return game and Jamal Lewis on the ground, it's gonna be Green Bay all the way. Despite questions over the Packers run game, when you look at their offense it really does have the makings of something special. Their receivers, in terms of technique, catching and Yards After the Catch (Y.A.C) are among the best in the league. The only trouble they might have is separating the two Rogers; Their QB Aaron Rogers from the Browns Nose Tackle Shaun. I'm backing the Packers.
San Francisco @ Houston -- My beloved 49'ers travel to Houston this week. And get mauled. The final unveiling of Michael Crabtree will do little to ease the pain. The 9'ers were trounced by Atlanta before spending last week on a bye. This week they come back and face a team on the up. Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels, Steve Slaton. Four names which will scare the crap out of most D's. Frank Gore. The only name that might really trouble Houston. This one might even turn into a rout. Until San Francisco can learn how to generate some offense, they will always struggle. Note: Michael Crabtree does not constitute generating offense. I'm backing Houston. Damn.
San Diego @ Kansas City -- Last year this was a no brainer. This year.... who knows? The vultures are already circling over Norv Turner and The Chargers. Everyone is waiting for Merriman or Tomlinson (who I just found out is ill) to make a mistake so they can swoop in and tear them to shreds. Conversely, everyone in Kansas is getting ready for a big run that will lead Kansas to a Wildcard spot. I think both groups will disappoint and let's be clear on this. Last week the Chiefs beat the Redskins. The REDSKINS. And even then it was a battle of the field goals. Everyone seems to be surprised that Kansas hasn't exploded in some kind of offensive orgy since Todd Haley and Matt Cassel showed up. But truth be told, Haley doesn't have Warner, Fitzgerald and Boldin this season. And Cassel doesn't have Moss or Welker. On top of that, the Chiefs don't have Tony Gonzalez this season either. On the other side, the Chargers do still have Phillip Rivers, Darren Sproles, Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates (& L.T. if he's recovered). They also still have Merriman on D. Ignore him at your peril Kansas, I have a feeling he's looking to shut a few mouths with a big game. I take San Diego for this one.
Indianapolis @ St. Louis -- Jesus, this could end up like World War 1; a massacre. The undefeated Colts coming fresh off a bye week against the winless, hopeless, Rams. Manning is simply on fire. He's making Garcon and Collie look like Jerry Rice and Michael Irvin. Steven Jackson of the Rams is ranked 4th among all NFL rushers this season..... and still hasn't found the endzone. Oh dear. Colts, all the way.
New England @ Tampa (@ London) -- It's that time again as the International series rolls into Wembley stadium. Last year I was there to watch the Saints and Chargers shoot it out. This year I wont be taking the 50 odd mile trip south west, to watch New England blow the Tampa Bay Buccaneers back to Davey Jones's locker. An believe me, they will. I admire Tampa for trying to build a young(ish) team. Josh Johnson has potential with his mobility and their receiving corp continue to pull amazing catches out of the bag each week. But Brady & Co. have a point to prove still, and they'll doubtless take this opportunity to make it. The big question lingering over this game is why is it even happening. Anyone that believes for a second that this game is about anything other than money is deluded. And while I appreciated the chance to see my first NFL game live in the flesh, I also think it is a waste of time. The teams hate it, and the NFL would sell more shirts if it simply made more deals with the free-to-air channels here in the UK. Anyway, I say New England makes the fouding fathers trip in reverse successfully.
Minnesota @ Pittsburgh -- Brett Favre has a photo in his holiday album from when he visited Egypt. If you look carefully in the background, you can just about see the pyramids of Giza being built. But despite his mighty age, the man can still throw. And throw hard. Coupled with a nice group of receivers, a stellar running game, and Jared Allen making hay in opposition backfields, this one has 'Vikings win' written all over it. Except the Steelers are gonna come out on top. Yeah I know, I'm taking the Steelers. My keyboard nearly exploded when it realised what I was typing. How can I possibly take the Steelers? Easy. They play better D and their Yellow and Black attack is on fire. Ben surname-un-spellable is looking good, Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes are getting the job done downfield, and their two headed rushing attack is slicing and dicing people left, right and centre. Add home advantage and it all looks good. Steelers to win.
Buffalo @ Carolina -- In their final drive last week, Carolina threw a quick pass to receiver Steve Smith. Other than that, it was all runs as DeAngelo Williams and Johnathan Stewart gashed Tampa Bay, finishing with a touchdown. And that's just how the Panthers roll. Or should roll. Except for someone unknown reason they seem determined to throw the ball whenever the slightest chance rears it's head. And surprise, surprise, Jack Delhomme throws a pick. Or two. Or three. If it wasn't for his five turnovers in last years post season game with Arizona, the Panthers had a good shot at going to, if not winning the Superbowl. It's also worth noting that when Jonathan Stewart gets 14 or more carries, the Panthers are 9-0. This is important because it highlights the benefits of having two backs with contrasting styles, who compliment each other. But, they must be used as a tandem. All this is of course directed at the Tennessee Titans, who seem oblivious to the fact that they have LenDale White on their roster. If the Panthers play to their strengths then they will cream the Bills, who got blasted on the ground last week by the Jets. I think they will. At least I hope they do, because I'm picking them. Panthers for the win.
New York (Jets) @ Oakland -- Honestly, I don't want to take either team. Rex Ryan has brought attitude to the Jets D, but not sacks. They get pressure, which helps. But it doesn't stuff drives and force three and outs the way sacks do. Luckily, help is at hand for the Jets. Because JaMarcus Russell has a way of stuffing drives all on his own. Don't be fooled by his performance last week. Russell is not going to be lighting up the scoreboard anytime soon. And to be honest, nor is their run game. Now I know Mark Sanchez is hardly rocking and rolling himself. But he does have better support in Thomas Jones and Leon Washington. As long as Rex and his coaches don't get too excited at the prospect of throwing the ball to their new toy Braylon Edwards, all should be right with the world. And the Jets win. I'm taking 'em.
Chicago @ Cincinnati -- Please, please, please, would someone alert NFL commentators and pundits that Matt Forte has not suddenly been drained of all his prowess, like Samson having his hair removed. Forte is fine. His O-line is a different matter. If you watch Chicagos run game carefully, you'll notice that often Forte ends up flat on his back behind the Line Of Scrimmage. This tells us that he's not getting adequate help up front. So, much of the Bears offense now relies on Jay Cutler, Devin Hester and Greg Olsen. I can think of a worse trio in which to vest my hopes of victory. Sadly though, for Bears fans at least, the Bengals have this one wrapped up. Cedrice Benson has had something of a revelation this year. Expect that continue against his old team, nicely supplemented by Palmer and the Bengals pass game. Bengals to win. Probably in the last 10 seconds.
Atlanta @ Dallas -- Last week was a breakout game for Cowboys receiver Miles Austin. If Tony Romo can find him and veteran receiver Roy Williams downfield then that opens up opportunities underneath and in the red zone for TE Jason Witten. But more importantly, it'll help keep the safeties off the two headed backfield monster that's just waiting to be unleashed; Marion Barber and Tashard Choice. The two backs are averaging over 5 yards per carry each and have the potential to join the elite of the NFL's one-two punch combos. All they need is the carries. And across the field from them will be a running back tandem that is already establishing itself; The Falcons Michael Turner & Jerious Norwood. This pair of running back beasts has set a tone for the Falcons offense, and the play-action game that works off them has benefitted receiver Roddy White and TE Anthony Gonzalez. With Matt Ryan at the helm the Falcons offense is explosive. The trouble is their D is a little, how do you say, flimsy. In other words, I can see The Cowboys running right over them and picking up the win. This is probably the pick I'm least sure about, but I'm going to back Dallas for this one.
New Orleans @ Miami -- God help me for this, but Im gonna back Miami. Yeah, Miami. I can already see the image now of Drew Brees hurling balls all over the field and burying my pick into the ground. But something about the Dolphins tells me that they're gonna steal a win by the smallest of margins. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are something else. Even when Miami doesn't run the Wildcat, those two still burn people for big chunks. And this ball control will force the Saints to do the thing they do pretty darn good, which is throw the football. But that's not how they score. They score on play action. You get a receiver evenly slightly open and sure enough, Brees will find the guy. But if Miami has been studying the film the way I have, hopefully they'll see past it. The Dolphins are the kings so far this season for stopping the run. Hopefully they will treat Pierre Thomas with a bit of respect, but not so much as to get caught with their pants down. I know they can do it. I hope they do it. Because I'm picking them to do it.
Arizona @ New York (Giants) -- Toughie. Ahmad Bradshaw is one hell of a running back. Brandon Jacobs has been... inconsistent. Overall the Giants have looked good. But this week, probably against a little twinge of better judgement, I'm backing the Card's. Why? Basically because I think Warner and co. are gonna have a field day with the Giants secondary. And because the Cardinals secondary is gonna have a field day with Eli Manning. Arizona has gradually creeped back into this season after a bad start and I think they may just creep back in a little further by taking a bite out the big apple. So I'm going on a limb to take Arizona.
Philadelphia @ Washington -- Hmm, not too sure. There was a time early in this season, for example up to last Sunday morning, when this would have been a no brainer. Eagles all the way. But now, I'm not so sure. The Eagles almost out right refusal to run the ball last week cost them dear. Will they be that stubborn this weak against the 'skins? Who knows. On the other hand, you have a team in Washingotn who are in turmoil. Relieving Jim Zorn of play calling duties will probably not inspire their head coach, who already has that look in his eyes of a man who has been thoroughly beaten down. But, there is hope. The Redskins are built for two things; power runs and play action. That is the real strength of their set up. And maybe a change at the play calling position will lead the Redskins away from the West Coast attack promoted by Zorn and onto more fruitful pastures. With Eagles Linebacker Omar Gaither injured it opens up the chance for big gains by Clinton Portis. Conversely, Eagles QB Donovan McNabb will get little respite this week with Albert Haynesworth lining up at NT for the 'Skins. And with their 3rd ranked pass D, I think maybe the Redskins will have the edge. I'm picking the Redskins to win this one. Christ, did I just say that.
So, there we go. Theres some in their that I'm far from 100% sure about, but that's football. Let's wait and see.
