Super Bowl thoughts

So that's the NFL done for another season.

The Super Bowl itself was an interesting clash, largely due to a lot of the mistakes. You'll have to bare with me on this as I try to recollect all the things that caught my attention, which also points to the fact that I may indeed forget certain key things that I wanted to mention.

One thing I wont forget was the general display of poor technique that was shown by numerous players. I believe it was Brandon Spikes who had a shot at picking off the Giants first touchdown in the endzone, but like far too many defenders lately (across the whole NFL) he failed to get his head around and find the football.

I have no idea why so many players do this. It kind of goes without saying that unless you can actually see the football then you have no chance of picking it off. The coverage he was playing was purposely designed for him to undercut any quick pass such as the slant that came, but for that to be of any use then you have to get your head around and actually find the ball.

In that situation the plan is that you'll pick off the pass and not only save the touchdown, but have a great chance to run the ball back way down the field to set up the offense. But with your eyes transfixed on the receiver what hope do you have, as Spikes found out, of breaking up anything. If you cant see the ball then you cant stop the pass.

Now I'm not normally one inclined to give too much credit to Deion Sanders, but I will say this about him; he was superb at getting his head around to find the football and then make a play on it. He understood that unless you find the ball with your eyes then all you're doing is just following the receiver to the point where he makes a catch so that you can tackle him.

To have any chance of making an impact on the play and the game in general then you must get your head around and find the football. Spikes could have changed the whole complexion of the game if he had got his around and made that stop. Even just getting his hands on it and disrupting the pass would have been enough.

This was - however - just one of a veritable catalogue of errors. In a way I'm thankful. Error prone games tend to be more tightly fought, nail biting type contests as indeed was this one. It's why games between two crappy teams in the NFL tend to be exciting contests that end with ridiculous last minute comebacks etc, because the two teams are so error prone that neither of them can seal the deal properly.

The tackling in particular was poor at times. Hernandez might have got in for his touchdown anyway even if a more form like tackle been made on him, but one things that is for certain is that he was never going to be taken down by a simple hit, a point eloquently made when he bounced off and waltzed into the end zone.

Then there were the Giants fumbles. Three in all, two recovered by their own team, one ruled out by a penalty. It just stuns me that after all this time and what, ten seasons worth of heavy fumbles, the Giants still haven't fixed this. It's like the itch that they just cant (or wont) scratch. Given Tom Coughlin's reputation as a fearsome task master, and given the look on his face everytime he sees his team fumble the ball, I'm frankly amazed that this continues to be an issue.

Luckily the Giants got away with it this time. But it wasn't half a close run thing.

In particular I was disappointed with some of the Giants coverage. Given that the Patriots are not a team well known for their deep passing game this year I was surprised to see the Giants playing as much deep zone coverage as they did. That wasn't even the most odd/annoying thing though.

All season long the Giants have prided themselves on the quality of their pass rush, and rightly so. Mostly they've been able to get it done with their front four, but they've still made plenty of use of their linebackers in the pass rush, especially rushing Kiwanuka off the same side as Jason Pierre-Paul in order to guarantee that Pierre-Paul gets one on one matchups with no running back chip.

Yet they seemed incredibly reluctant to do this against the Patriots. Worse, they often found themselves on obvious passing downs (where the end rushers really make their money) but decided that instead of having their ends rush they would drop them off into coverage.

Now I could live with that if the ends were dropping off in the curl/flat zones to the sides but instead these ends often found themselves dropping back into the middle of the field where they were totally exposed, as happened to Pierre-Paul on the Patriots first touchdown.

I harped on this theme in a recent post about playing to your strengths and I'm going to harp on it again; why - on a critical passing down - is the best pass rusher on your team dropping back into coverage? I get that sometimes coaches like to pull little tricks to confuse quarterbacks but a) this is Tom Brady we're talking about, not some rookie and b) you can get too cute for your own good sometimes.

In this case I think the Giants were falling for B, getting far too cute with their coverage when they should have just unleashed Pierre-Paul at the quarterback. I noticed the Patriots also ran a pick play to get this touchdown, but expecting the Patriots (or indeed anyone in the NFL) to get called for offensive pass interference is like trying to get blood out of a stone.

I was also a little surprised by the Giants choice of coverage against guys like Wes Welker. Many times Welker found himself being covered by a linebacker, with the linebackers often sitting inside of him and giving him complete free reign to pivot or break to the outside. He - like most of the Patriots receivers - was also given a free release for most of the game.

This surprises me because if there is one thing we know about the Patriots offense, it's that they love to throw the ball short on quick routes and then let the receivers make the play with the ball in their hands. Given Brady's propensity to stare down receivers from the snap the tactic of jamming the Patriots receivers off of the line has proven very successful everytime that it has been used to date.

You simply can't allow guys like Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez to come off the line cleanly and attack your defense. You have to get your hands on them and disrupt the timing, making Brady hold the ball for an extended period of time. The result of not doing this was aptly demonstrated at the end of the first quarter as Brady marched down the field playing short passes all over the shop. The Hernandez touchdown was also a great example of this principle in action.

In general I felt the Patriots did a slightly better job on defense for most of the game. They brought good pressure from their front, did a great job of taking Victor Cruz out of the game for large chunks of it, and were relatively stout against the run.

However they slipped up a few times and that cost them. Part of that was down to the Giants just having such a diverse array of deep threat targets, and partly it was because their secondary has been something of a bodged together unit this year.

Safety seemed to be a key area of weakness for them, as too many passes were hit deep along the sidelines or right in the middle in front of the safeties very eyes. The Patriots tackling was pretty good and they played the classic "bend but don't break" defense very well. In the end they essentially allowed Bradshaw to walk in for the Giants second touchdown out of the necessity of the time situation.

Really it was mistakes on offense though that killed them, something which is surprising given who we're talking about here.

Brady's intentional grounding penalty at the start was just inexplicable. He could have done many thing with the ball other than throw it to such a completely open spot. It really did make little sense, even watching it from the Sky Cam in real time. I'm sure that's one of the few throws he's made in his career that he'd like to have back.

Certainly some of his receivers would like to have some of those play back, especially on the final drive. Just when Brady needed the experienced hands of a guy like Hernandez he really let him down. It's difficult to say really whether the Patriots would have been able to march the field and set themselves up in a decent situation which wouldn't have required a hail mary shot, but they could at least have got much closer.

Overall then, in a mistake filled game that was a lot of fun to watch, the Giants made the least critical errors and did so further from the end game. That had a huge impact on the result I feel. It was still entertaining as hell and personally I thank both teams for the show they put on for our enjoyment.

Looking forward then, we have Free Agency just around the corner and that will be followed by the NFL draft. I've promised myself, for the sake of my blood pressure, that this year I absolutely will refuse to watch the combine or take any real notice of it. I plan to stick to that promise.

Sometime this week I'll start delving into the free agency pool and we'll have a look at some of the interesting names that come up. Till then, I'm off to enjoy the remains of the snow.

A word on Tom Brady

Todays topic then is Tom Brady, the wild haired wonder of New England, who looks more like he should be shooting commercials for shampoo than playing football, and who will forever be known as much for "that" fumble which has become synonumous with the Tuck rule and for "that" low hit which has lead to what some call the "Brady" rule, as he will be for the fact he's won three Super Bowls, won a whole bunch of games, set a bunch of records and generally been - along with Peyton Manning - in an elite class of quarterbacks quite apart from the rest of the pack.

What I want to look at though is something odd about Brady that I noticed a while back when he played the Dolphins on Monday Night Football in week one. It's an issue that I'm surprised hasn't been picked on more by defensive coaches, because it's actually considered a fairly serious flaw. Well, it is in lesser quarterbacks at least, who lack the accuracy and decision making of someone like Brady.

The problem is that - surprisingly - Brady has a major tendency to stare down his receivers. I don't just mean a quick look down before he throws. I mean from the snap to the release, he often fixes his eyes right on a receiver and never looks off. In a moment we're going to look at some video, but for now we'll just address quickly some of the problems with this and some of the factors that seem to mitigate it.

The main issue when a quarterback stares down his receivers is that you tip of what you're thinking. You're basically telling the defense who you plan to throw the ball to. There are certainly times that you can get away with this, especially against man coverage when the defenders are busy looking at the receivers and not the quarterback.

Where this becomes a more serious issue is against zone defenses, where the defenders are dropping back and reading the quarterbacks eyes. By looking at a quarterback who is staring down his receivers, the defenders are able to figure out who the intended target is and to close in on him. In particular, safeties and dropping linebackers can take more of a gamble against a "stare down" quarterback displacing to the edges of their zone of responsibility in order to improve their chances of getting the pick.

This works especially well when accompanied by pressure, which forces the quarterback to make a quick read and throw. A linebacker spying on the quarterback knows the pressure is coming and that if the quarterback is to have any chance of getting the ball out then he needs to make the throw quickly, so when he sees the direction the quarterbacks eyes are headed he can bite and go looking to make the big play.

With safeties you see the effect more in single high coverage and with a free safety who has buckets of mobility, say someone like an Ed Reed of the Ravens. Sitting in the middle of the field they can read the quarterbacks eyes and at the snap follow where he's looking, zooming across to appear out of seemingly nowhere to make the interception.

Now of course it's not as easy as all that. Any over reaction by the defense creates a tendency that can then be exploited by a savvy offensive coordinator and a savvy quarterback... like Brady. It also helps to have receivers like Brady does. They're quick, have great hands and their route running (apart from maybe Chad Ochocinco) is among the best in the league.

There's also the element of how the plays are put together that works in the Patriots favour. I've seen Patriots playbooks from the mid-2000's and I imagine the same basic concepts are still in use today that were back then. If that's true then it means they're still often packaging routes together that are designed to work halves of the field.

To give you an example, they might have a four receiver set with a running back in the backfield, where two receivers on one side of the field are running routes designed to compliment each other. On the other side, the other two receivers will be running two different routes, again designed to work together, and possibly with the backs route incorporated to add another level of coordination.

The advantage of this kind of scheme is that you can put together a single pass play that is designed to beat two different types of coverage. The two receivers on the right side could be running a route combination designed to beat a Cover 2, zone defense, while the receivers on the left can run a route combination designed to beat man coverage.

All you need now is say.... a top tier veteran quarterback with great accuracy, pretty good arm strength and a good understanding of how defenses are put together and how to recognise them. Like Tom Brady for example. Throw in a little motion to try and tip the defenses hand, combined with your quarterbacks knowledge of the various defensive 'tells' that exist, such as the alignment of the safeties on the hash marks and how they line themselves up over the receivers, and what you have is a recipe for helping Brady to break down his reads into much smaller chunks.

Now instead of reading the entire field, he can anticipate the coverage he's going to face and select the receiver combination he thinks will work best against that coverage. At the snap he looks right across to that side and starts keying the defenders for the tell tale signs that let him confirm the coverage. Then it's simply a case of reading how the defenders are responding to the routes and hitting the open guy.

Of course if those defenders happen to be looking right back at you and reading you for tell tale signs, then the whole merry go round begins again....

Right, enough of the theoretical side, let's get to the practical and start looking at some videos. Now, given that I don't have access to the NFL's extensive library of end zone tapes, we're going to have to do this the hard way. That means you're going to have to turn down your speakers, unless you happen to enjoy listening to McDonald's and Papa John's commercials, and brave the world of hurt that is NFL.com's video library.

1) Our first play is from the Dolphins game and it's the 10 yard TD pass to Gronkowski. The Patriots have a receiver in motion and looking at their reaction to it plus the alignment of the safeties, you can bet Brady sees cover-2. To the right he has his tight end on an out and the outside receiver running up and over the defense on something approximating a post. The outside corner gets pulled inwards and Brady hits Gronkowski. Watch his head though (you get a better look on the replay). Brady is watching that thing all the way; http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-fantasy/09000d5d8222fd2e/QB-Brady-to-TE-Gronkowski-10-yd-pass-TD

2) Next, same game, this time the Patriots are down at the two. Brady has two receivers left and sees the blitzing safety coming from a mile away, pointing him out to his line. As soon as he has the ball in his hands he looks immediately left to Welker. Not the greatest example of the stare down (it's a blitz read) but just a good example of Brady's quality thrown in there; http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-fantasy/09000d5d82230718/QB-Brady-to-WR-Welker-2-yd-pass-TD

3) Still the Dolphins game, Brady gets man coverage across the board in an empty set, single high safety. As soon as the ball is in his hands he's looking at Hernandez for the throw. Here's where it gets interesting. I'm wondering that if safety was dropping back and reading Brady's eyes, might he have got across for the break up? http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-fantasy/09000d5d822307cc/QB-Brady-to-TE-Hernandez-30-yd-pass

4) This is Brady to Welker in the Raiders game and gives us a great shot of Brady staring it down all the way. He's literally just standing there, looking, looking, looking, then throws: http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-fantasy/09000d5d822c5f5c/QB-Brady-to-WR-Welker-32-yd-pass

5) Again from the Raiders game, this play-action pass gives us a great look from behind the line on the replay. You see Brady just fix right in on Welker after the play fake. It's literally tunnel vision. And this highlights what I was talking about a while back with playing bump and run. When the Browns did that to Welker last year it put Brady in a bind, because everytime he looked straight at Welker there was nothing there to be had, forcing Brady to then revert to reading the field. If Welker had been bumped or delayed on this route, Brady would have found himself holding that ball and awful long time: http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-fantasy/09000d5d822c6563/QB-Brady-to-WR-Welker-28-yd-pass

6) This next example demonstrates precisely that problem. It's actually a sack from the Jets game. Brady only has one receiver to his left and he locks right in on the guy. The coverage is tight and Brady just stands there holding the ball, waiting for his guy to come open. At which point he gets taken down; http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-fantasy/09000d5d822fa5a4/Jets-defense-sack-9-yd-loss

7) This next play sees Brady looking for Deion Branch to his right, who he hits on a out (word of advice Branch, the reason you're running an out route during the two minute drill is so you can get out of bounds easier and stop the clock, not cut inside and get tackled, costing your team nearly 20 seconds). The stare down is intense; http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-fantasy/09000d5d822fa5f8/QB-Brady-to-WR-Branch-29-yd-pass

8) Another sack this time, from the Cowboys game. This is short yardage and the Cowboys make an effort to get their hands on the Patriots receivers. Brady looks right and holds his vision there. By the time he realises there is nothing on and looks back to the middle he's sacked. Again this is one of the problems with making pre-snap decisions on where the ball is going; http://www.nfl.com/videos/new-england-patriots/09000d5d8232df24/Cowboys-defense-sack-5-yd-loss

9) And one more sack for luck (as opposed to "suck for Luck"). Again we see Brady look left right off the bat and hold his vision there, eventually letting the pressure get home; http://www.nfl.com/videos/new-england-patriots/09000d5d8232e525/Cowboys-defense-sack-8-yd-loss

10) From the Cowboys game again, it's the 5-yd TD pass to Welker. Brady sees the defense and makes an adjustment, then takes a few peeks across to his left at Welker before the snap, followed by a quite obvious look to finish before the ball comes. Then as soon as it's in his hands, he's looking at Welker all the way. If Welker gets jammed, the pressure would probably get home as Brady likely wouldn't have enough time to reset; http://www.nfl.com/videos/dallas-cowboys/09000d5d8232ebbb/QB-Brady-to-WR-Welker-5-yd-pass-TD

Annnnnd to finish, we go back to that Patriots/Dolphins games courtesy of some complete random Pats fan on YouTube, who posted every offensive snap for the Patriots in that game, in two parts. He also posted the whole NFL Films documentary 'A Football Life; Bill Belichick', both parts 1 and 2. Here's the user ID so you can find those if you're interested.

And here's the Patriots offense. Just try and ignore everything else and focus on Brady's head, especially when they do the replays with the Skycam, still the best camera angle in football. It's a stare down master class.

Well I hope you enjoyed watching those vids (and the horrific amount of commercials). The conclusion? It's not a deal breaker, staring down the receivers. Not with someone like Brady. But it does throw up some interesting ideas for game planning to beat one of the most prolific passers of the contemporary generation. I'd be interested to know what NFL defensive coordinators do to exploit such a vulnerability if anything.

More importantly for me it reaffirms something I've always believed in when it comes to Football and life; everybody has a weakness. Find yours, so you can cover it up. And find your opponents, so you can exploit it.

I'll be back tomorrow with my picks.

2011 Pre-season; week 2 (Thursday)

So, two games from pre-season week 2 in the books. Let's have a look.

It started with the Patriots at the Buccaneers and boy did the Buccaneers get a wake up call. Their firsts versus the Patriots firsts resulted in a game that wasn't even close as the Pats put up 28 unanswered points as their offense cut through the Buc's D, while their defense poured all over the Buc's O-line. It was the footballing equivalent of a massacre.

Tom Brady finished 11/19 for 118 yards and 2 TD's, having a few miscues, but nothing serious. Chad Ochocinco got his first action in a Patriot's jersey, scoring a TD and taking a major hit along the way. Rookie QB Ryan Mallet was 9/14 for 71 yards and 1 interception. Naturally people were crying about the fact that he threw a pick, but shit, seriously? One pick and other than that he's looked very solid, certainly the best among this years crop of quarterbacks.

The Patriots running game got motoring again, largely due to the fact that the Buccaneers D-line was getting handled just as roughly as its offensive line. On defense, Patriots linebacker Jerod Mayo had two sacks and looked every bit the lynch pin of that defense.

As for the Buccaneers, I think it's a case of try again next week? Josh Freeman went just 5/10 for 33 yards. Josh Johnson did slightly better, 6/17 for 105 yards and a pick. C'mon Johnson, you're better than this. Third year backup Rudy Carpenter was 6/10 for 68 yards.

But the Buc's have little to be pleased about. The simple fact is that they were man handled at every turn throughout the game by a clearly superior side. They may be "Youngry", but the young aspect definitely stands out more than the hungry part. Lots of coaching work to do in the coming season.

Next the Philadelphia "Dream Team" Eagles visited Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers and were in for something of a shock. Recently the Eagles players have been trying to play down the "Dream Team" moniker and Thursday night we perhaps found out why.

Mike Vick; 5/12 for 47 yards and 3 INT's. Wow. That was pretty bad. Part of the issue was - as you might expect - the Steelers pass rush. But a big chunk of it was just Vick making bad decisions (no jokes please). One of the interceptions was just ridiculous, as Vick tried to thread the needle between about five defenders. And that seemed to be the major problem. Instead of just occasionally eating a sack or throwing the ball away, Vick was determined to make plays happen that just weren't there.

Still, he got a sweet hit in after a pass was tipped and then picked off by Troy Polamalu. Not sure if Andy Reid will be quite as impressed.

His replacement was Vince Young, who went on to finish 5/8 for 34 yards and an interception. Finally the situation was partially rescued (albeit against the third string) by Mike Kafka, who threw 14/19 for 160 yards and 2 TD's. Running back Ronnie Brown got in on the action late and had some effect, as did rookie Dion Lewis (ahhh!) with 2 carries for 19 yards and 2 receptions for another 48.

On defense some new arrivals made their impact, with Jason Babin, Cullen Jenkins and Anthony Hargrove all recording sacks, but outside of that the Eagles D didn't look all that impressive, being victimised by a succession of Steelers quarterbacks.

It started with Ben Roethlisberger, who went 8/12 for 125 yards and 2 TD's, while looking every bit like a hall of fame quarterback. Yeah. He just seems to have such a command of that offense, while bringing great strength and calm under pressure to the table as well. Next up was Byron Leftwich; 4/7 for 67 yards and a TD. Then Dennis Dixon; 8/11 for 90 yards.

Of note outside of the quarterback position for the Steelers was new receiver Jerricho Cotchery, who ended with 2 catches for 49 yards and a TD. On defense the Steelers actually produced just one sack, but the elusiveness of Michael Vick had much to do with that. The pressure was there and it forced mistakes, notable not least because of the defense's four interceptions total. Will Allen also produced a forced fumble.

Dream Team? More like "Dream On" at the minute, but its early days yet. I am wondering though, after my post the other day about the pressure that comes with the hype, will the Philadelphia media start to go rabid already? We'll see.

Right then, we'll round off this post by having a look ahead at the Friday night action.

Which begins with the Redskins at the Colts. The Curtis Painter saga continues! More of interest though will be the defense, which got over run by St. Louis of all people last week. If Manning doesn't come back 100% this year then the Colts will need a very strong showing from their defense just to make the playoffs. For the Redskins this is another chance to see where they stand with Rex Grossman and perhaps give that rushing attack a kick up the backside.

The Chiefs get a repeat of their playoff match up from last year, but this time they'll be on the road against the Ravens. I'm actually quite intrigued by this. I want to know whether Head Coach Todd Haley trusts his running game this time or whether he's going to stick with testing out his back up quarterback situation. The Ravens need to find their groove offensively and really give Joe Flacco a decent spell.

Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns next, and two teams that had pretty good starts to the pre-season, offensively at least. Looking forward to seeing more Colt McCoy in action and also finding out whether Matthew Staffords resurgence in week 1 was just a fluke or if he's finally starting to build a sense of rhythm with his receivers.

The Cam Netwon show rolls into Miami as the Panthers face the Dolphins. This one is all about the quarterbacks, as Newton and Clausen battle for the starting role in Carolina, and Chad Henne tries to convince the Miami coaches he's the right man for the job this season.

The Cardinals get a trip to a slightly cooler Green Bay for their week 2 game. For Green Bay its about building on a pretty good showing by the first stringers last week while a lot of attention will be on Arizona in this one. More specifically, the mess that is otherwise known as their quarterback situation. It'll also provide a nice test for what is a defense in some disarray, having still not stopped the rot at the linebacker position from last season.

Finally, the Falcons nip across to Florida to take on Jacksonville. I'm interested to know just how tough that Falcons defense will be this year. Specifically I'm looking for sacks from the Falcons D-line. For the Jaguars all eyes will doubtless be on Blaine Gabbert, but a more important question in my book is how their revamped linebacking corps gets on.

See you tomorrow.

AFC East 2011 Prospects

After the thumb screw-esque exercise that is the NFL Networks coverage of the combine, it's time to pick up where we left off by examining the potential future in 2011 for the teams of the NFL. And we've reached the AFC East. Buffalo Bills: The Bills eh? 2010 could have been worse. They could be picking number 1 overall in April. As it is they've been pushed into 3rd place after finishing 4-12. But the reality is that the Bills were probably one of the best teams to lose at least 10 games. That's kind of like coming first in a shit eating contest, but hey, first place is first place. A number of Bills players stepped up to the plate (are baseball analogy's allowed in a football post?), including QB Ryan Fitzpatrick who surprised many with his confidence and at times very good play. Is he the future of the Bills? That's maybe a more touchy question. Thankfully for the Bills though, most of those who contributed in 2010 will be back for sure in 2011. They're one of the teams to do quite well out of free agency this year. But it's not all sweetness and light. Akin Ayodele, Keith Ellison and Paul Posluszny will all potentially go walk abouts at Linebacker. The loss of Posluszny would be particularly hard to bear, as he really is a high quality linebacker playing on an otherwise crappy D. The loss of SS Donte Whitner might be a little easier to handle, but certainly the loss of CB Drayton Florence will have an impact. Florence is one of those players who you just know will never get the credit he deserves, which could potentially translate into a return to the Bills for 2011. So what about the draft? As mentioned earlier, the Bills pick at number 3 and it's time for them to make the big decision; How much do they like Ryan Fitzpatrick? Sitting at three they will probably get the first shot at a QB, unless the Panthers are feeling bold. There are plenty of choices out there. But picking up another QB that early wastes a pick that could otherwise be used to bring their defense up to par. While the offensive line and wide receiver positions do need an upgrade, I just think that the Bills would be better off going either defensive line (where they're woefully under manned) or for a corner. Chances are that both Patrick Peterson and Prince Amukamara will be there if they're willing to take the early shot on a skill position. All in all, the Bills might actually get their act together this year. I know I say this all the time about a lot of teams, but they're one good draft away from being reasonably competitive. A focus on defense in the off season combined with another good year from Ryan Fitzpatrick could see the Bills fighting for a wildcard spot. Jesus, did I really just say that? Miami Dolphins: What happened to the Dolphins? The addition of guys like Brandon Marshall and Karlos Dansby was supposed to elevate the Dolphins into prime position to challenge the Jets and Patriots for division glory. But instead the bottom fell out of the boat and although they finished 7-9, it was a struggle. It could get nasty in 2011. Kory Sheets and Lex Hilliard are both up for exclusive rights free agency (essentially sign or retire). FB Lousaka Polite will still be around, but that's 3 running backs, none of whom is considered a starter. All the others are off into the murky waters of unrestricted free agency. That's Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams and the under rated, under appreciated, Patrick Cobbs. Losing those three will be big. As indeed might be the loss of Tyler Thigpen and Chad Pennington. With the struggles of Chad Henne smothering the back pages of the papers in Miami throughout the 2010 season, Thigpen and Pennington may be more valuable to the Dolphins than many realise. So where does that leave the Dolphins draft strategy? Picking at number 15 it might be a running back or guard, but my guess is the Dolphins will be looking for a D-linemen to supplement their high quality linebacking corps. Cameron Wake may have done the 'phins proud in 2010, but one player can't do it all alone. The Dolphins could really use some help up front to ease the pressure. As for their 2011 outlook? I think the Dolphins are one of those teams sitting on a knife edge. If their draft goes pretty well and maybe they do some work in free agency, they could challenge for the AFC East. But draft poorly and/or fail to find the right guys in the draft, and the Dolphins will drop like a lead balloon. Much rests on the shoulders of Chad Henne and new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. New England Patriots: By virtue of "E" before "Y", we now head up north and a little more to the east to join the Patriots. God help us. I still have unresolved Patriots issues, like their blatant use of 'pick/rub' plays and the way that TV analysts then describe them as being 'legal pick/rub plays'. How can you have a legal pick/rub? A pick or rub is illegal by definition, otherwise it would just be a 'play'. But now I'm getting diverted. So after a stellar regular season that came crashing down around their ears in the playoffs, what do the Patriots have to look forward to in free agency? Well, guard Logan Mankins has had his butt franchised. That then leaves the small matter of RB Kevin Faulk, OT Matt Light, FB Sammy Morris and RB Fred Taylor as the major potential departures. Which in comparison to a lot of teams is quite light, (The Saints for example. Haha! Wankers). And as you can probably imagine, given that this is a Bill Belichick team, the overall roster is looking in pretty good shape heading into a draft in which Patriots will pick 18th. And 28th. And then twice again in the next round. And etc... Given the relative high quality of the Patriots team, don't be surprised to see them trade down, down, further down, and a little bit more down. I imagine there will be more than a few picks that are traded away into next year, as Bill Belichick continues to hoard draft picks like a survivalist hoards tins of canned beef. If Belichick does decide to cash in a first round pick, it'll probably be at either wide receiver, running back or offensive line. If a guy like Rodney Hudson is till kicking about, Belichick is smart enough to pull the trigger. As for 2011? Who knows with the Patriots. Like the Colts they seem to breeze through some games that looked like tough contests on paper, only to struggle against comparatively weaker foes (like the Browns). There really is no reason why this Patriots team can't make a run for the Super Bowl. At the very least I would expect them to make the playoffs. Again. New York Jets: Who didn't want to see the Jets fail in the AFC Championship game? Apart from Rex Ryan of course. And the Jets fans. And the Jets players. And the Jets ownership and back room staff. But other than those few people, who didn't want to see the Jets fail? Well they did. Despite all the hype about winning a Super Bowl, once again the Jets failed to do it. Now normally you would look at two consecutive appearances in a championship game and applaud the team in question, especially given that in the first year they had a rookie QB and in the second he still hadn't improved a huge deal. But that's where Rex Ryan and the Jets go astray. It would have been a great achievement, had they not all spent the entire season blowing their own trumpet about how they were the best team in football and were going to win the big one. Definitely in 2010. Oops, maybe not. Well, Rex is now saying that 2011 will be the season. Forgive me for being a little sceptical. Especially when I look at the list of free agents. Oh dear. Kellen Clemens may not be a star QB, but at least he served as a reasonable back up to "Shaky Sanchez" (trademark). That's one plan B that the Jets probably wont be falling back on. Then we have Drew Coleman and Antonio Cromartie on their way out, unless the Jets can stump up some serious cash. Given that they've basically hailed their receiving corps as the priority, it looks unlikely that Cromartie will return. Braylon Edwards, Santonio Holmes and Brad Smith (you know, the wildcat guy) are the three receivers headed to free agency. Holmes is apparently the priority, with Edwards - for some unknown bonkers reason - as the number two. That means bye, bye Smith, who would make a nice little addition for teams looking to mix up their offense a little. Defensive Ends Shaun Ellis and Trevor Pryce are also on the way out, accompanied by safety Brodney Pool and kicker Nick Folk to round up the list of names you might have heard of. That leaves the Jets in a so-so position headed into the draft. Not picking until number 30 overall, they could probably use a new running back, they need more receivers like I need more cash (i.e. badly), they basically have now one proper offensive tackle (yeah, one), and their safety and corner line up doesn't look great either. My guess is that the offensive line will take priority, given Rex's desire to "ground and pound". But honestly the Jets don't look in great shape, and picking at number 30 in each round is hardly the best way to attract valuable suitors for your picks. Will 2011 bring that allusive championship ring then? Don't bet on it. The Jets can still turn things around with some free agency magic and savvy drafting, but that's asking a lot. Honestly, I feel like the Jets under Rex Ryan might just have ridden the last of their luck and hype. Having soared as high as they have over the last two years, it's time I think for Jets fans to now brace themselves for the down cycle. It's only natural. That's how football rolls sometimes. It ebbs and flows. The key thing for the Jets is to keep their eyes firmly peeled on the future and not get carried away just because 2011 might be a difficult ride.

Divisional Round Recap

Seattle Seahawks 24 @ Chicago Bears 35: It was inevitable really. Like I said yesterday, the Bears D is much more accomplished than the Saints. And don't let the scoreline disguise the reality of this game. It was 21-0 at half time. By the time the fourth quarter started it was 28-3. The Seahawks basically spent the first 3 quarters or so punting the ball. On both sides of the ball the Bears took control, but the offense was particularly impressive. Jay Cutler was 15/28 for 274 yards with 2 touchdowns. Tight End Greg Olsen only caught 3 passes, but he converted them into 113 yards and a TD. Matt Forte had 25 carries for 80 yards. Chester Taylor finally turned in a performance to start paying back his free agent fee, with 11 carries for 44 yards and a TD. But it was Cutler who stole the show on the ground as well. 8 carries, 43 yards and 2 TD's. It may not sound like the greatest haul in the world, but the 2 touchdowns are impressive and the other runs helped the Bears to keep drives alive. Cutler simply owned the field whenever he was on it. With that win the Bears progress to the NFC Championship game which will now be hosted at Soldier Field, with the Bears welcoming the Packers for what promises to be a superb showdown. New York Jets 28 @ New England Patriots 21: The Jets did it. They only bloody did it. All the trash talk, all the hype, all the back and forth. Sadly the game wasn't quite what was expected, but entertaining in its own way. For the Jets it was the affirmation of a week (or more) spent ripping on the Patriots. For the Patriots it was an embarrassing put down by the most divisive team in the NFL right now. Tom Brady had a so so game. 29/45 for 299 yards, 2 TD's and 1 INT is actually not bad. All the hype at the minute is that the Jets shut the Patriots offense down and confused Brady to point where he was largely ineffective. Well, call me a traditionalist and a cynic, but I hardly call 29 completed passes for 299 yards being "shutdown". That's not to take away from the fact that at times Brady looked uncharacteristically hesitant and at times a little lost, but he still put out a fair afternoons work. He also had a potential 3rd TD dropped in the end zone. But bizarrely the Jets offense topped the Patriots. I say bizarrely because while the numbers tell us that Mark Sanchez went 16/25 for 194 yards and 3 TD's, the tale of the TV is that the Jets offense spent a large amount of this game stinking it up and then only hitting good plays intermittently. RB Shonne Greene helped to stabilise the ship somewhat with 17 carries for 76 yards and a TD, but it was still probably the least impressive QB performance in a playoff win that I've seen for a while. I don't know. On paper it all looks pretty good. But I just get that sense that Sanchez is in way over his depth. Luckily (for him) the Patriots had practically zero pass rush. They mustered no sacks and not even a QB hit. 4 tackles for a loss was their lot. Do we really think it will be so easy next week against the Steelers? Be honest now? Do we think the Steelers (who were missing Troy Polamalu when the teams met in Week 15) will really be so toothless up front? Don't count on it. The positive of course was the Jets defense. 5 sacks, 7 tackles for loss, 7 QB hits, an interception and 2 forced fumbles. Sedrick Ellis alone accounted for 2 sacks, 2 TFL and 2 QB hits. They may have still given up quite a few yards, but their coverage at times held just enough. Again this is an area I would slightly dispute. The coverage was pretty tight, but the prevailing notion that the Jets "smothered" the Patriots receivers is, if I may become a pretentious Brit from the 1920's era, "Utter tosh and Poppycock". 299 yards in the air, and by NFL standards, some of those receivers were most definitely open. Normally Brady would have found them with ease but here he just looked lost and/or blind at times. Maybe I'm being a little too critical and nit picky of the Jets. The inescapable fact is they've just beaten the Colts and the Patriots in successive weeks. Normally, beating just one of those teams would be worthy of the praise. But both? In consecutive weeks? That means the Jets have now made it to the Championship game two seasons in a row. It's a hell of a statement and something that has to be respected. But if Rex Ryan is going to fulfill the hype that his team is a Super Bowl caliber side, then he still has to go to Heinz Field and do something that not many teams do; beat the Steelers at home. In the playoffs.

Divisional round part 2

Wow. Just...... wow. Baltimore Ravens 24 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 31: At halftime it looked like it was all over. For a while there I was thinking to myself "All the those pundits, they nailed it. The Ravens are walking this one." But you just don't count the Steelers down and out that easy. No sir. The Ravens under went a second half implosion upon which the Steelers suddenly pounced to win it. A rough and tumble game, with hits and at times punches (and even a head butt) thrown back and forth, this rivalry game lived up to his hype 10x over. The only thing that didn't stand the test of expectation was the scoreline, which soared to unknown heights for this clash. Not that the defenses didn't have good games. The Ravens D put up six sacks, 6 tackles for loss, 8 QB hits, 5 passes defended and 2 forced fumbles. Terrell Suggs alone reaped 3 sacks, 2 tackles for loss, 2 QB hits and a forced fumble. The Steelers D were not to be out done though. 5 sacks, 7 tackles for a loss, 4 QB hits, an interception, 8 passes defended and a forced fumble. James Harrison led the way with 3 sacks, 3 tackles for loss, 2 QB hits and 2 passes defended. Joe Flacco was held to just 16/30 for 125 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Ben Roethlisberger did only a little better, with 19/32 for 226 yards and 2 TD's. Neither teams ground game found much life, as could be expected given the respective defenses, with Ray Rice being held to 32 yards and a touchdown from 12 carries (seriously, why only 12 carries when you were leading this game comfortably at one point?) and Rashard Mendenhall leading the Steelers with 20 carries for 46 yards and 2 touchdowns. Ultimately the Ravens killed themselves. Despite leading 21 to 7 at half time Rice only carried the ball 6 times in the second half. Are the Ravens taking the Fu...reakin' piss? 6 carries? What was I saying just last week about the Chiefs not sticking with hot hand Jamaal Charles? For the sake of Matt Cassel? Now you're telling me that the Ravens rate Joe Flacco over Ray Rice? That's horseshit. Someone in Baltimore obviously has a king sized hard on for Flacco and it potentially just cost their team a place in the AFC Championship game. "Know Thyself". I'm seriously considering renaming this blog after that quote. Congratulations to the Steelers for a very strong win. They progress to the championship game that will be played either a) in New England, should they beat the Jets tomorrow, or b) in Pittsburgh, should the Jets be victorious. Green Bay Packers 48 @ Atlanta Falcons 21: When John Kuhn ran in for a TD to tie the game at 14 a piece, it was looking like a classic shoot out might be in the making. The Falcons then drove the field, but Matt Ryan sold his receiver short (who then slipped trying to come back to the ball) and Tramon Williams picked off the pass in the endzone. Then the Packers went down the field themselves and took the 21-14 lead. Then they put the game away at 28-14. The Falcons were trying to pull off a desperately needed drive to get back 3 points before half time when Matt "Matty Ice" Ryan suddenly melted in the burning sun of the Packers rising corner Tramon Williams. The Falcons called a play that required Roddy White to run an out to the left. Unfortunately he ran at an angle towards the sideline right from the start, tipping Williams off. Williams had the position on White and Ryan should have just chucked it away or gone somewhere else. Instead he forced it and Williams returned it for a touchdown. The Packers took a lead the Falcons would never touch. But the Packers weren't done. They came back in the second half and drove multiple nails into the Falcons coffin, with two more touchdowns and two field goals. Aaron Rodgers finished the game with a stunning 31/36 for 366 yards and 3 TD's. James Starks carried 25 times for 66 yards. Greg Jennings had 8 catches for 101 yards. The Falcons numbers pale in comparison. Matt Ryan; 20/29 for 186 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs. Michael Turner; 10 carries for 39 yards and a TD. Mike Jenkins; 6 catches for 67 yards. On defense the Packers led a riot. 5 sacks, 6 tackles for loss, 6 QB hits, 2 interceptions, 2 passes defended and a forced fumble. LB Clay Matthews alone accounted for 2 sacks, 2 tackles for loss and 2 QB hits. It ended as a massacre. And this is precisely what I was talking about with Green Bay's potential. All season long they've had this capability within them, to walk onto the field and utterly dominate an opponent, which made their losses in the regular season all the more frustrating for Packers fans. Finally they seem to be getting into the swing of things just at the right moment. Next up is a guaranteed road trip to face the winner of the Seahawks/Bears game. Which reminds me... Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears: Ok Seattle, you knocked off the Saints. Now can you pull off a miracle twice and beat the Bears too? Again the Seahawks have that punchers chance of knocking the Bears out. But it will be much tougher this time around. This is a Bears D that is basically built to stop teams like Seattle; playing a mix of true cover 2 and "Tampa 2", the Seahawks might find Bears defenders dropping into all the different places where they'd otherwise like to put the ball. The Bears pass rush is vastly superior to the Saints, with out the need to bring five man pressures on most plays and finally the Bears defense will be a much tougher nut to crack on the ground. There's a risk here of talking about the Bears much like most people were talking about the Saints last week, but the simple fact of life is that this Bears team is much stronger defensively than the Saints, albeit with a little less punch on offense. Yes, the much maligned Jay Cutler has the chance to finally win his playoff stripes. All he has to do is handle the Seahawks pass rush, which is a lot easier than it sounds, and then get the ball to playmakers like Devin Hester and Johnny Knox, which is also a lot easier than it sounds. But I'm leaning towards the side that says well done to Seattle for coming this far, but you're probably not going any further. The combo of defensive ends Israel Idonije and Julius Peppers is unlike anything the Seahawks line has seen for a while, and given the pretty shoddy nature of the Seahawks O-line it might very well get ugly, quickly. But then that's what everyone was saying about the game with the Saints last week. The winner will host Green Bay in the NFC Championship game. New York Jets @ New England Patriots: Let's face it, this game is probably more hotly anticipated than even the Ravens/Steelers game was. For that we have to thank the big mouth of Rex Ryan and his Jets players who decided that rather than just leaving the Hornets nest alone, they would instead endeavour to poke it repeatedly with the biggest stick they could find until it fell off the tree and split. Probably even more entertaining was listening to Wes Welker slip as many foot references into his press conference as possible (I believe he hit eleven in just under 8 mins). But the time is at hand now to find out who has put their best foot forward and who's been putting their foot in their mouth. On paper, it looks like the Jets are about to get brutally crushed beneath Belichicks boot (and Super Bowl ring(s)) much as they did in week 13 (45-3). Just the other day I put up the pictorial proof on this very site that Darrelle Revis can be beaten. We don't need pictures to tell us that Antonio Cromartie can beaten, or that he is a little, shall we say, "tackle shy". Probably the weakest link, and Rex must know it, is quarterback Mark Sanchez. His only stroke of luck is that the Patriots haven't exactly been the masters of the blitz this year. Otherwise he could be in for a tough day. This Patriots secondary has already shown a taste for interceptions and any flutter balls from Sanchez will be in dangerous territory with the Pats lurking around every corner. Oh, and this before we get to the small matter of the Patriots offense. Tom Brady. Deion Branch. Wes Welker. Aaron Hernandez. Rob Gronkowski. Danny Woodhead. Julian Edelman. BenJarvus-Green Ellis. Brandon Tate. Should I stop now? The Patriots offense is playing as well as any in the league has this season. Drive after drive, like a methodical robotic machine, the Patriots have driven down the field time and again, with Brady firing the ball in all directions and ably supported (for a change) by the solid running game. This is genuinely a scary offensive team that gives Defensive coordinators nightmares. But are they unbeatable? No. Not by a long shot. Aside from regular season losses pre-Randy Moss trade, the Patriots were also taken to the wire by a Packers team that was missing Matt Flynn. The key was physical football on offense that kept the ball away from Brady, and a decent pass rush on offense. People forget that under constant, heavy pressure, Brady is just as susceptible to mistakes as you or eye in our daily work (well, almost). And it turns out that those things are precisely what the Jets specialise in. Their ground game is infinitely better than their passing attack and Rex Ryan is one of the acknowledged masters of the blitz in this league. He also showed his tactical prowess last week against the Colts, leaving gaping holes in his line for the Colts to run at, knowing full well that the ball out of Peyton Mannings hands was a good thing and that the Colts could not sustain any kind of successful rushing attack for the duration of the game. What will Rex Ryan come up with for the Patriots? I'm not sure, but you can bet that Bill Belichick is standing on the opposite sideline with an equally impressive game plan in hand. It's going to be fun to watch, and even more fun if the Jets lose. I'm not sure if the slice of the humble pie they'll have to eat will fit inside the state of New York. Plus, who's going to foot the bill for it?

Gathering Moss

Two things for today: -- Numero uno, the trade of Randy Moss to the Minnesota Vikings. This is classic Belichick. Despite being a member of the Bill Parcells coaching tree we also know that Belichick was a big fan of Bill Walsh and holds his book "Finding the Winning Edge" in high esteem. One of the points that always comes up when you do enough research on Walsh is the idea that's it better to replace a player a year too early than a year too late, predominantly because of the value that can still be obtained from letting a player go too early. Moss is a case in point. His contract is expiring. To release him into free agency is a waste. To retain him would cost money. Lots of it. By trading Moss now the Patriots have lost a great player for 2010 but gained an additional pick in the third round for 2011. And let's not forget how good Belichick can be at finding good, multi-year contributors in the middle rounds. Any argument that the Patriots have "given up" on their season (as suggested numerous times now on NFL network) is ludicrous. Young receiver Brandon Tate has great speed down the field, Julian Edelman is vastly under rated by many, they still have Wes Welker, and the combo of rookie tight ends Rob Gronkowski & Aaron Hernandez (both on my watch list) add a new level of depth to this offense. The Patriots will be fine if they can just sort out that defense. For the Vikings the trade makes some sense to. With Favre in it for probably his last year (but then, this is Favre...) the Vikings are all about winning now and if they plan on doing that, they need Moss to give them a consistent down field threat. The window is here for Minnesota. With the rest of the NFC in the state it's in currently, there is a very good chance that the runner up in the NFC North will finish with a good enough record to take one of the wild card slots. -- Next up I want to look at a segment from NFL networks "Playbook" show. The segment was posted on NFL.com but sadly the NFL seems intent on not allowing people to embed their videos, despite the fact that said videos often contain ads which they generate revenue from and of course it's free exposure for them. Bitching aside, here is the link to the video. The purpose of the clip is to demonstrate the athleticism and talent of Ravens NT Haloti Ngata, which it does. But what is more interesting to me is that the playbook crew overlooks some of the weaknesses of the Steelers O-line play that contributes. I've often found this a hard balancing act to play with; do you highlight the flaws in a play and put it all down to that, or do you highlight the strength of the person making the play? In this case I think it's a bit of both. The first part of the clip comes at about 1:12 or so and it's a zone/stretch run play to the left (from the Steelers perspective). Mayock points out Ngata (number 92) for our convenience. But although Ngata does make a great drive off the line to beat the Guard (to his left) and get into the backfield, the reality is that the play is made because the Center Maurkice Pouncey (starting over Ngata, or vice versa depending on your preference) fails to make the block. Instead of turning back on Ngata and working the double team on Ngata with the guard before "slipping" off to take LB Ray Lewis (number 52), the Center instead works all the way down the line and ends up effectively making a partial triple team on the next down linemen. This is either a result of poor play design, or more likely just Pouncey making a bad adjustment to the defensive front. Credit to Ngata for his powerful downhill assault, but it should have been stopped. The next play is at 1:29 and this is a bit more open as to whether the offense is at fault or whether Ngata just makes a stout defensive play. Again, it's probably a bit of both, but what concerns me most is the way the tight end and the right tackle (number 71, Flozell Adams) handle their block. It's clear from the front that they have Ngata and Lewis. They have to double Ngata then one of them - in this case the tight end - has to slip off and get Lewis. The trouble is that Adams heads inside on his first step, thus preventing him from getting proper position on Ngata. Ideally you'd want Adams to get up in Ngatas face head to head, then with the aid of the tight end they would turn Ngatas shoulders and butt out of the hole. As it is they can't turn him (indeed, to his credit Ngata turns Adams) as the tight end slips off to get Lewis. So it's kind of a 50/50, part bad blocking, part great D-line play. Any coaches reading this would be advised to get the clip and use it as an example to their O-line of the importance of the first step. The next play starts at around the 1:48 mark and again we find Steelers Center Maurkice Pouncey (number 53) head up with Ngata. Now again Ngata does show off his physical skills by throwing Pouncey to one side, then tossing aside Guard Doug Legursky, before finally tracking the play laterally with surprising agility for a man of his size. But here again I have to question the blocking by Pouncey. As a lineman you cant afford to give the opponent a two-way go. You have to commit to blocking him one way or the other. It's the responsibility of the back to read the block and then cut off it in the appropriate direction. Instead Pouncey kind of rides Ngatas shoulder wondering and waiting for him to make a move. You've either got to cross his face and keep him trapped inside or stay inside of him, let him run out and wait for the back to cut in; when he does (which he ended up doing) Ngata will turn to make the tackle (which he did) and then you're perfectly placed to drive into Ngata and seal him outside. The last play is just Ngata being a great athlete. He doesn't make the play but it's all kinds of fun to watch. So what do we learn from this? That the Steelers need some work on their O-line. That rookie Maurkice Pouncey is still a rookie. That sometimes you have to sit back and look at the whole picture to really understand what's going on. But importantly for me, if the Steelers can be as good as they are at running the football with O-line play like this, how much better could they be at it with a little extra work? Have a great day everyone.

Monday Night Football

Patriots 41 @ Dolphins 14 -- What's worse than a pick gone wrong? A pick gone wrong largely because of special teams? What's worse than that? Typing up a recap and then having Internet Explorer eat it like the bag of s**t that it is. I'm pretty stunned at how bad this went. It went so badly that Dolphins special teams coach John Bonamego got the boot today. After a first half that was kept close thanks to two picks by Patriots LB Rob Ninkovich (who also finished the game with a sack), the second half went down the toilet for Miami real quick. First Brandon Tate took a kick off back 103 yards for the score, then Patriots safety Pat Chung took advantage of a numbers mismatch on the left side of the Dolphins protection to block a punt that led to a short field and the Patriots first offensive TD. An exchange of TDs finished off the 3rd quarter, then in the 4th the meltdown was complete as Chung came free on a field goal rush and blocked a kick that was scooped and returned for a TD by Kyle Arrington. Not satisfied that he'd caused Miami enough misery, Chung then came up with an interception which he returned 51 yards for another score. And that my friends is a Bill Belichick second round pick all over; looking for guys who can contribute on special teams as well as at their normal positions. On offense Brady was clinically efficient completing 19 of his 24 passes for 153 yards and a TD. LB Jerod Mayo gets a nod as well for his game leading 14 tackles (eat your heart out Patrick Willis). It shouldn't be overlooked that despite a crappy special teams show and the four interceptions, the Dolphins did collect 23 first downs, went 10/15 on third downs and gained 400 net yards on a Pats defense that still looks like it's about to implode at any minute. But then with special teams play like this I doubt Bill Belichick cares much.... I'll round off today with some extra points: -- The Patriots were the latest team to bust out the old "fake spike". In the end the throw was poor and Moss was unable to corral it (he had zero catches on the night). But still, I have to complain because I hate this play. You might be wondering why I frown on this type of deception given that teams routinely fake run plays and then pass. The reason is simple; on a play-pass the defense understands that the ball is live. On a fake spike they're being fooled into thinking the play is dead. That means everyone on defense stops. It's a breach of the good faith that exists on such plays and it stinks. Might as well run the "Coach, wrong ball" play (look it up on YouTube). -- Nice to see Peyton Manning and the Colts are still getting away with running pick plays in the red zone to get some of their TDs. If the league thinks it's not a big deal then that's fine... but remove the rule banning them. Otherwise just enforce the damn thing already! Oh wait, I forgot. Colts GM Bill Polian is on the competition committee. -- The assault on Kevin Kolb (classic idea to put the "publish" button next to the "save draft" button) continues in earnest. This week he is being bashed from all corners for checking down too much in the game against Washington. If you don't like check downs then that's ok, but almost every commentator/analyst/expert is basically following the line "If you keep passing short you'll never win games".

I think some people need to go back and watch some film on Joe Montana. In any given game you can count the number of passes he throws beyond the 20 yard line ('air yards') on two hands. You can count the number of completions involving 20 or more 'air yards' on one hand. Scratch that. Often on one finger.

It's not ideal so far, but Kolb can and most probably will get better. His receivers will start making up the yards after the catch. And the longer, ball control type drives might be just the remedy that the Eagles defense needs. Take the fingers off the panic buttons Eagles offense. For now at least.

Have a great day everyone.

Wildcard weekend Sunday round up

NFC - Packers 45 @ Cardinals 51 -- Let's get two things straight right off the bat. #1, the Packers have only themselves to blame for their turnovers, one of which ultimately cost them the game. #2 This was probably one of the most exciting games of football in recent memory. And now the rant can begin. 'Cos this was also the biggest joke in footballing history, an abomination that brings the otherwise excellent reputation (deserved) of the NFL officiating into disrepute. Simply put, the Packers were robbed. On both TD passes to Larry Fitzgerald, Packers CB Charles Woodson was unceremoniously knocked to the ground. This was more than interference, it was downright blatant cheating. It's surely no coincidence that the twice victim of this tactic is also considered (and rightly so) to be the Packers best defensive back. Then just to add insult to injury, on the second TD there was a call for roughing the passer.... despite the contact beginning prior to the release of the ball This just shocked me when I saw it. The NFL has a reputation for being a pass friendly/offense friendly league. But this took it to far. If a defensive player makes contact with a receiver beyond 5 yards from the LOS then they get called for illegal contact downfield. So how in the hell can they compete when receivers are slamming them to the ground? Honestly, this is just disgusting. I've ranted before about how 'pick' or 'rub' plays are supposed to be illegal and yet go completely unnoticed (Colts, Cardinals, in particular), but this truly was the icing on the cake. I'd like to talk about the Cardinals QB Kurt Warner and his amazing achievement of going 29/33 for 379 yards and 5 TDs. But I can't. To do so would dishonour the Packers defense who were robbed on two plays that resulted in 14 points. Without them, the Cardinals would be going home. I'm just still in shock. To give you an idea of how annoyed I am, think about this. All season long I've had it in for the Saints. They're over rated and make a living off of hype. But next weekend, I hope they pound the Cardinals into the floor. That's how badly I want the Cardinals to lose now. If Arizona makes the Superbowl, it'll be nothing more than a sick joke. On a more positive note, if Green Bay can keep their players and coaches in place for next season, they're going to be a seriously dangerous team. AFC - Ravens 33 @ Patriots 14 -- 10 passes. That's all Joe Flacco threw. Yet contrary to popular opinion (in the NFL & among 'spread' lovers) throwing that little doesn't mean you're guaranteed to lose. In fact, that probably guaranteed the Ravens victory. Rice and McGahee shared no less than 42 carries between them, chalking a combined 221 yards and 3 TDs. Compare that to Tom Brady's stats; 23/42, 154 yards, 2 TDs & 3 INTs. The fact is, the Patriots got taken apart. Even though Flacco threw a pick (yeah, on only 10 passes!), by keeping the ball out of his hands the Ravens reduced turnovers and controlled the ball, keeping it away from the potentially explosive Pats. And with the Ravens scoring three TDs and a FG in the 1st quarter, the Patriots were doomed to try and pass to catch up, along with the turnovers that normally go hand in hand with such a prolonged endeavour. Ah well, at least I got my pick right! So that's 3/4 pick wise this week. If it wasn't for some appalling refereeing, I'd be 4/4 so I'm happy. And now we have the fixtures set for the divisional round, as the Cardinals travel to the Saints (NFC) and the Ravens travel to the Colts (AFC) on Saturday, and on Sunday, the Vikings play host to the Cowboys (NFC) and the Chargers welcome the Jets (AFC). Should be four pretty good games. Later in the week I'll talk about momentum and on Friday I'll share my picks for the weekends action.

Monday Night Football

With the Monday Night Game done, it's time to look at how I got on with my final pick of the week: Patriots 17 @ Saints 38 -- Trust the Patriots to mash up my final pick. And listen, no I'm not about to bow before the mighty Saints and say "hey, they're the best". Yeah, they beat the Pats, but go back and watch the game film. I don't know what Pats team was out there in New Orleans, but it wasn't the one any of us would recognise. Take Tom Brady for example. 21/36, 237 yards, no TD's and 2 INT's. For Brady that's really bad. But the worst offenders were the Pats defense. Devery Henderson looked like he was going to fall over in shock during the second quarter as he was left so open it was unreal. I don't think blown coverage really does it justice. I dunno, I'm just speechless. Now I know I bang on with the hate against the Saints each week, but trust me, there is a point. I know Drew Brees is one of the premier QB's in the league. He is easily one of the top three, along with Peyton Manning and Brett Favre. As a team, the Saints have done really well in all three phases of the game. But the response to all this has been symptomatic of NFL analysis over the last 10 years or so. The Saints are being hailed as the greatest team in football right now, when they're simply not. It's another case of the over hype that is rife among sports broadcasters. Let's look at it realistically. The Saints division has been woeful this year, contributing to easy wins. The Dolphins practically gave the game back to New Orleans after destroying them in the first half. And now this result which will again overly inflate the reputation of the Saints, despite the Patriots being dire. The biggest and best example of this over hype is Darren Sharper. After his late pick, the defensive players were fanning him and treating him like a hero. That's understandable. They're his team mates and they are joking around. But by tomorrow all the sports broadcasters across the land will be kneeling at Sharpers feet, heralding him for what was essentially just being too slow and lazy to keep up with the play, which left him short when Brady's pass didn't make it. He got lucky, again, and now he's going to be proclaimed as some kind of defensive wizard. God it makes me sick just thinking about it. And probably the worst bit about all this is that the Patriots previously mentioned appalling D will go quietly un-noticed. This whole debacle will be put down to how great the Saints were, blah, blah. But the fact is that on Saturday I made a point about the Saints O. I mentioned that they get most of their big gains and scores going down the middle. I was expecting the normally excellently coached Patriots to see it and shut it down. They didn't. Big time. Just watch the game film. The Pats let Brees and his receivers have the middle all to themselves. They didn't bring enough pressure right up the A gap to force Brees to move either. It just sucked as a defensive performance. And this is what I love about football. Every week certain match ups favour certain teams, and every week pundits will hype the crap out of people that don't warrant it. And the most bizarre thing about this is the unlikely candidates who have the best shot of beating the Saints should they face them. Namely, the Steelers, the Ravens, the Cowboys and the Eagles. None of these teams has exactly lit up the world this season. But all of these teams would have a good shot of beating the Saints (The Cowboys actually get a chance in week 15). Why? 'Cos they all bring great pressure right up the middle. Take the Cowboys for example. They are hardly over flowing with defensive talent, but Jay Ratliff should get in the face of Drew Brees when they meet, and push Brees out of the pocket. Coupled with the potential of their ground game should they chose to use it (which knowing my luck they wont), they have a real chance of chewing the clock, stopping the Saints ground game and forcing Brees to get mobile and try and win games throwing 40 times, which simply wont work. Ahh, that feels better now I've ranted off on one. Tomorrow; Extra Credit.

4th and 2

It seems everyone else on the planet has voiced their opinion in the argument over whether Bill Belichick made the right choice going for it on that now infamous 4th down on Sunday Night, so I might as well have a crack to. First of all, I don't want to hear about statistics or percentages. All too often I think people try and break down the game of football into percentages and chances of xyz happening, that it's all about mathematics, without realising that their are human beings involved (and not to mention the weather). Football is nothing like flipping a coin or spinning a roulette wheel. There are a ton of variables to consider. Take for example the stat that I keep seeing people batting around. Every football mathematician (for want of a better word) keeps repeating the same percentage: that the Pats had a 65% shot of making it on first down. Really? Because looking at the numbers, prior to this 4th down attempt the Pats had completed just 5 of 10 on 4th down attempts. Now, I'm no expert on numbers, but I'm pretty bloody sure that equals 50%, not 65%. And that's for all fourth downs, even ones that were just inches. What are their stats at going 4th and 2? And then I keep hearing about the percentage chances of stopping the Colts etc and I cant help but think "hang on a second, what about the Colts chances of stopping the Pats on 4th"? Are we to assume that it only matters how successful the Pats have been in the past at getting the first down? Don't certain defenses have better chances of stopping teams than others? Or are you really going to sit there and argue that the Cleveland Browns are just as good at making stops on 4th down as the Pittsburgh Steelers? (In case you're wondering the Steelers now have an 80% success rate against 4th down attempts, while the Browns have just a 46% success rate, tied with the Colts who've now made 5 stops on 11 attempts). But I digress. First of all, something very important must be understood about this decision. If that choice had been made by say, Norv Turner or Tom Cable, they would probably be unemployed right now. It's Belichick though, which is the only reason so many people are sticking up for him. If it was Mangini, everyone in the world would be ridiculing him (and rightly so). Secondly, why, for the love of god, didn't the Pats run the ball on the third down? I know the old argument, that Welker is one of their best players etc and you think he can do it blah, blah. But it was 2 yards. Two. Give the ball to Kevin Faulk. You're a pass first team that everyone knows will try and throw it. So don't. Line up with 4 guys wide and run the ball two measly yards for the win. If you don't get it, it doesn't matter. You let the clock run to the two minute warning. Now anything that happens afterwards is reviewable from the booth. For example, if you now tried to throw for the 4th down and the refs incorrectly marked the spot...... Third, why call out your punt team, then recall them, then burn a timeout. If you're gonna punt, punt. If you're gonna go for it, go for it. If you're not sure, punt. Clock management here was terrible, and that's really unlike the Pats. And don't give me any of that "they weren't sure what play to go with" nonsense. Belichick is a student of the Bill Walsh method of coaching. He and his team will have practiced 4th and 2 before. He and his team would know exactly what play they were gonna run (your very best short yardage play). It was just poor coaching. Fourth, I found a beautiful analogy while I was reading comments that people had made about this very topic on another site. I present it here in full for you: "State of mind plays a role. If I bet you $100 that you couldn’t throw an egg 12″ in the air and catch it, would you take the bet? What if the bet was $10 million? What if you lost, your arm would be amputated? Or you were executed? In all scenarios, it’s throwing an egg 12″ in the air and catching it. Do you still think the success rates are the same?" In short, do you think Faulk bobbling the ball would have happened if it had been on the Colts 29 yard line and not the Pats? Fifth and finally, let's look at what happens if you fail to make it versus punting the ball. By all estimations, if the Pats punt the Colts would have started on about their own 30, there or there abouts. Obviously Peyton Manning is going to have a much easier time scoring from 29 yards than from 70. But there are two factors we really need to consider that make the choice of going for it on 4th down a bad move: 1) You've basically just said to your D, "Punt? Are you guys f***ing kidding me?! I'd rather ask my offense to try and go for it on 4th and lose the game if we fail, than trust you guys to stop Manning going 70 yards!" 2) Yes Manning put together two drives in the 70+ range in that quarter, but he also threw a pick in between those two drives. Manning is good, but with only around two minutes left in the half he can't use the run game at any point, he really has to pass to win. And with Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon dropping balls all over the shop, that's a chance I'd be willing to take. Let's not forget that the Colts had been far from stellar in this game. The only reason they scored on their previous drive was really the terrible pass interference call that put them in range. Yeah I know Manning is good, but on this day I think the Pats would have made the stop. I think Belichick made a horrible choice. And I think no amount of number crunching can take that away. Even if he'd made it, I still would have put it down as a bad choice. Ultimately it cost the Patriots the game, and could come back to haunt them in January.

Week 7 picks

Right, it's Friday night, which means prediction time. My first set of predictions to actually be heard by the world (or maybe even just one random passer by). No time to waste, let's get down to it: Green Bay @ Cleveland -- I hear D'Qwell Jackson has been placed on injured reserve. That's pretty much it then for Cleveland. Short of some kind of miracle involving Josh Cribbs in the return game and Jamal Lewis on the ground, it's gonna be Green Bay all the way. Despite questions over the Packers run game, when you look at their offense it really does have the makings of something special. Their receivers, in terms of technique, catching and Yards After the Catch (Y.A.C) are among the best in the league. The only trouble they might have is separating the two Rogers; Their QB Aaron Rogers from the Browns Nose Tackle Shaun. I'm backing the Packers. San Francisco @ Houston -- My beloved 49'ers travel to Houston this week. And get mauled. The final unveiling of Michael Crabtree will do little to ease the pain. The 9'ers were trounced by Atlanta before spending last week on a bye. This week they come back and face a team on the up. Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels, Steve Slaton. Four names which will scare the crap out of most D's. Frank Gore. The only name that might really trouble Houston. This one might even turn into a rout. Until San Francisco can learn how to generate some offense, they will always struggle. Note: Michael Crabtree does not constitute generating offense. I'm backing Houston. Damn. San Diego @ Kansas City -- Last year this was a no brainer. This year.... who knows? The vultures are already circling over Norv Turner and The Chargers. Everyone is waiting for Merriman or Tomlinson (who I just found out is ill) to make a mistake so they can swoop in and tear them to shreds. Conversely, everyone in Kansas is getting ready for a big run that will lead Kansas to a Wildcard spot. I think both groups will disappoint and let's be clear on this. Last week the Chiefs beat the Redskins. The REDSKINS. And even then it was a battle of the field goals. Everyone seems to be surprised that Kansas hasn't exploded in some kind of offensive orgy since Todd Haley and Matt Cassel showed up. But truth be told, Haley doesn't have Warner, Fitzgerald and Boldin this season. And Cassel doesn't have Moss or Welker. On top of that, the Chiefs don't have Tony Gonzalez this season either. On the other side, the Chargers do still have Phillip Rivers, Darren Sproles, Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates (& L.T. if he's recovered). They also still have Merriman on D. Ignore him at your peril Kansas, I have a feeling he's looking to shut a few mouths with a big game. I take San Diego for this one. Indianapolis @ St. Louis -- Jesus, this could end up like World War 1; a massacre. The undefeated Colts coming fresh off a bye week against the winless, hopeless, Rams. Manning is simply on fire. He's making Garcon and Collie look like Jerry Rice and Michael Irvin. Steven Jackson of the Rams is ranked 4th among all NFL rushers this season..... and still hasn't found the endzone. Oh dear. Colts, all the way. New England @ Tampa (@ London) -- It's that time again as the International series rolls into Wembley stadium. Last year I was there to watch the Saints and Chargers shoot it out. This year I wont be taking the 50 odd mile trip south west, to watch New England blow the Tampa Bay Buccaneers back to Davey Jones's locker. An believe me, they will. I admire Tampa for trying to build a young(ish) team. Josh Johnson has potential with his mobility and their receiving corp continue to pull amazing catches out of the bag each week. But Brady & Co. have a point to prove still, and they'll doubtless take this opportunity to make it. The big question lingering over this game is why is it even happening. Anyone that believes for a second that this game is about anything other than money is deluded. And while I appreciated the chance to see my first NFL game live in the flesh, I also think it is a waste of time. The teams hate it, and the NFL would sell more shirts if it simply made more deals with the free-to-air channels here in the UK. Anyway, I say New England makes the fouding fathers trip in reverse successfully. Minnesota @ Pittsburgh -- Brett Favre has a photo in his holiday album from when he visited Egypt. If you look carefully in the background, you can just about see the pyramids of Giza being built. But despite his mighty age, the man can still throw. And throw hard. Coupled with a nice group of receivers, a stellar running game, and Jared Allen making hay in opposition backfields, this one has 'Vikings win' written all over it. Except the Steelers are gonna come out on top. Yeah I know, I'm taking the Steelers. My keyboard nearly exploded when it realised what I was typing. How can I possibly take the Steelers? Easy. They play better D and their Yellow and Black attack is on fire. Ben surname-un-spellable is looking good, Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes are getting the job done downfield, and their two headed rushing attack is slicing and dicing people left, right and centre. Add home advantage and it all looks good. Steelers to win. Buffalo @ Carolina -- In their final drive last week, Carolina threw a quick pass to receiver Steve Smith. Other than that, it was all runs as DeAngelo Williams and Johnathan Stewart gashed Tampa Bay, finishing with a touchdown. And that's just how the Panthers roll. Or should roll. Except for someone unknown reason they seem determined to throw the ball whenever the slightest chance rears it's head. And surprise, surprise, Jack Delhomme throws a pick. Or two. Or three. If it wasn't for his five turnovers in last years post season game with Arizona, the Panthers had a good shot at going to, if not winning the Superbowl. It's also worth noting that when Jonathan Stewart gets 14 or more carries, the Panthers are 9-0. This is important because it highlights the benefits of having two backs with contrasting styles, who compliment each other. But, they must be used as a tandem. All this is of course directed at the Tennessee Titans, who seem oblivious to the fact that they have LenDale White on their roster. If the Panthers play to their strengths then they will cream the Bills, who got blasted on the ground last week by the Jets. I think they will. At least I hope they do, because I'm picking them. Panthers for the win. New York (Jets) @ Oakland -- Honestly, I don't want to take either team. Rex Ryan has brought attitude to the Jets D, but not sacks. They get pressure, which helps. But it doesn't stuff drives and force three and outs the way sacks do. Luckily, help is at hand for the Jets. Because JaMarcus Russell has a way of stuffing drives all on his own. Don't be fooled by his performance last week. Russell is not going to be lighting up the scoreboard anytime soon. And to be honest, nor is their run game. Now I know Mark Sanchez is hardly rocking and rolling himself. But he does have better support in Thomas Jones and Leon Washington. As long as Rex and his coaches don't get too excited at the prospect of throwing the ball to their new toy Braylon Edwards, all should be right with the world. And the Jets win. I'm taking 'em. Chicago @ Cincinnati -- Please, please, please, would someone alert NFL commentators and pundits that Matt Forte has not suddenly been drained of all his prowess, like Samson having his hair removed. Forte is fine. His O-line is a different matter. If you watch Chicagos run game carefully, you'll notice that often Forte ends up flat on his back behind the Line Of Scrimmage. This tells us that he's not getting adequate help up front. So, much of the Bears offense now relies on Jay Cutler, Devin Hester and Greg Olsen. I can think of a worse trio in which to vest my hopes of victory. Sadly though, for Bears fans at least, the Bengals have this one wrapped up. Cedrice Benson has had something of a revelation this year. Expect that continue against his old team, nicely supplemented by Palmer and the Bengals pass game. Bengals to win. Probably in the last 10 seconds. Atlanta @ Dallas -- Last week was a breakout game for Cowboys receiver Miles Austin. If Tony Romo can find him and veteran receiver Roy Williams downfield then that opens up opportunities underneath and in the red zone for TE Jason Witten. But more importantly, it'll help keep the safeties off the two headed backfield monster that's just waiting to be unleashed; Marion Barber and Tashard Choice. The two backs are averaging over 5 yards per carry each and have the potential to join the elite of the NFL's one-two punch combos. All they need is the carries. And across the field from them will be a running back tandem that is already establishing itself; The Falcons Michael Turner & Jerious Norwood. This pair of running back beasts has set a tone for the Falcons offense, and the play-action game that works off them has benefitted receiver Roddy White and TE Anthony Gonzalez. With Matt Ryan at the helm the Falcons offense is explosive. The trouble is their D is a little, how do you say, flimsy. In other words, I can see The Cowboys running right over them and picking up the win. This is probably the pick I'm least sure about, but I'm going to back Dallas for this one. New Orleans @ Miami -- God help me for this, but Im gonna back Miami. Yeah, Miami. I can already see the image now of Drew Brees hurling balls all over the field and burying my pick into the ground. But something about the Dolphins tells me that they're gonna steal a win by the smallest of margins. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are something else. Even when Miami doesn't run the Wildcat, those two still burn people for big chunks. And this ball control will force the Saints to do the thing they do pretty darn good, which is throw the football. But that's not how they score. They score on play action. You get a receiver evenly slightly open and sure enough, Brees will find the guy. But if Miami has been studying the film the way I have, hopefully they'll see past it. The Dolphins are the kings so far this season for stopping the run. Hopefully they will treat Pierre Thomas with a bit of respect, but not so much as to get caught with their pants down. I know they can do it. I hope they do it. Because I'm picking them to do it. Arizona @ New York (Giants) -- Toughie. Ahmad Bradshaw is one hell of a running back. Brandon Jacobs has been... inconsistent. Overall the Giants have looked good. But this week, probably against a little twinge of better judgement, I'm backing the Card's. Why? Basically because I think Warner and co. are gonna have a field day with the Giants secondary. And because the Cardinals secondary is gonna have a field day with Eli Manning. Arizona has gradually creeped back into this season after a bad start and I think they may just creep back in a little further by taking a bite out the big apple. So I'm going on a limb to take Arizona. Philadelphia @ Washington -- Hmm, not too sure. There was a time early in this season, for example up to last Sunday morning, when this would have been a no brainer. Eagles all the way. But now, I'm not so sure. The Eagles almost out right refusal to run the ball last week cost them dear. Will they be that stubborn this weak against the 'skins? Who knows. On the other hand, you have a team in Washingotn who are in turmoil. Relieving Jim Zorn of play calling duties will probably not inspire their head coach, who already has that look in his eyes of a man who has been thoroughly beaten down. But, there is hope. The Redskins are built for two things; power runs and play action. That is the real strength of their set up. And maybe a change at the play calling position will lead the Redskins away from the West Coast attack promoted by Zorn and onto more fruitful pastures. With Eagles Linebacker Omar Gaither injured it opens up the chance for big gains by Clinton Portis. Conversely, Eagles QB Donovan McNabb will get little respite this week with Albert Haynesworth lining up at NT for the 'Skins. And with their 3rd ranked pass D, I think maybe the Redskins will have the edge. I'm picking the Redskins to win this one. Christ, did I just say that. So, there we go. Theres some in their that I'm far from 100% sure about, but that's football. Let's wait and see.