Divisional round part 2

Wow. Just...... wow. Baltimore Ravens 24 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 31: At halftime it looked like it was all over. For a while there I was thinking to myself "All the those pundits, they nailed it. The Ravens are walking this one." But you just don't count the Steelers down and out that easy. No sir. The Ravens under went a second half implosion upon which the Steelers suddenly pounced to win it. A rough and tumble game, with hits and at times punches (and even a head butt) thrown back and forth, this rivalry game lived up to his hype 10x over. The only thing that didn't stand the test of expectation was the scoreline, which soared to unknown heights for this clash. Not that the defenses didn't have good games. The Ravens D put up six sacks, 6 tackles for loss, 8 QB hits, 5 passes defended and 2 forced fumbles. Terrell Suggs alone reaped 3 sacks, 2 tackles for loss, 2 QB hits and a forced fumble. The Steelers D were not to be out done though. 5 sacks, 7 tackles for a loss, 4 QB hits, an interception, 8 passes defended and a forced fumble. James Harrison led the way with 3 sacks, 3 tackles for loss, 2 QB hits and 2 passes defended. Joe Flacco was held to just 16/30 for 125 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Ben Roethlisberger did only a little better, with 19/32 for 226 yards and 2 TD's. Neither teams ground game found much life, as could be expected given the respective defenses, with Ray Rice being held to 32 yards and a touchdown from 12 carries (seriously, why only 12 carries when you were leading this game comfortably at one point?) and Rashard Mendenhall leading the Steelers with 20 carries for 46 yards and 2 touchdowns. Ultimately the Ravens killed themselves. Despite leading 21 to 7 at half time Rice only carried the ball 6 times in the second half. Are the Ravens taking the Fu...reakin' piss? 6 carries? What was I saying just last week about the Chiefs not sticking with hot hand Jamaal Charles? For the sake of Matt Cassel? Now you're telling me that the Ravens rate Joe Flacco over Ray Rice? That's horseshit. Someone in Baltimore obviously has a king sized hard on for Flacco and it potentially just cost their team a place in the AFC Championship game. "Know Thyself". I'm seriously considering renaming this blog after that quote. Congratulations to the Steelers for a very strong win. They progress to the championship game that will be played either a) in New England, should they beat the Jets tomorrow, or b) in Pittsburgh, should the Jets be victorious. Green Bay Packers 48 @ Atlanta Falcons 21: When John Kuhn ran in for a TD to tie the game at 14 a piece, it was looking like a classic shoot out might be in the making. The Falcons then drove the field, but Matt Ryan sold his receiver short (who then slipped trying to come back to the ball) and Tramon Williams picked off the pass in the endzone. Then the Packers went down the field themselves and took the 21-14 lead. Then they put the game away at 28-14. The Falcons were trying to pull off a desperately needed drive to get back 3 points before half time when Matt "Matty Ice" Ryan suddenly melted in the burning sun of the Packers rising corner Tramon Williams. The Falcons called a play that required Roddy White to run an out to the left. Unfortunately he ran at an angle towards the sideline right from the start, tipping Williams off. Williams had the position on White and Ryan should have just chucked it away or gone somewhere else. Instead he forced it and Williams returned it for a touchdown. The Packers took a lead the Falcons would never touch. But the Packers weren't done. They came back in the second half and drove multiple nails into the Falcons coffin, with two more touchdowns and two field goals. Aaron Rodgers finished the game with a stunning 31/36 for 366 yards and 3 TD's. James Starks carried 25 times for 66 yards. Greg Jennings had 8 catches for 101 yards. The Falcons numbers pale in comparison. Matt Ryan; 20/29 for 186 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs. Michael Turner; 10 carries for 39 yards and a TD. Mike Jenkins; 6 catches for 67 yards. On defense the Packers led a riot. 5 sacks, 6 tackles for loss, 6 QB hits, 2 interceptions, 2 passes defended and a forced fumble. LB Clay Matthews alone accounted for 2 sacks, 2 tackles for loss and 2 QB hits. It ended as a massacre. And this is precisely what I was talking about with Green Bay's potential. All season long they've had this capability within them, to walk onto the field and utterly dominate an opponent, which made their losses in the regular season all the more frustrating for Packers fans. Finally they seem to be getting into the swing of things just at the right moment. Next up is a guaranteed road trip to face the winner of the Seahawks/Bears game. Which reminds me... Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears: Ok Seattle, you knocked off the Saints. Now can you pull off a miracle twice and beat the Bears too? Again the Seahawks have that punchers chance of knocking the Bears out. But it will be much tougher this time around. This is a Bears D that is basically built to stop teams like Seattle; playing a mix of true cover 2 and "Tampa 2", the Seahawks might find Bears defenders dropping into all the different places where they'd otherwise like to put the ball. The Bears pass rush is vastly superior to the Saints, with out the need to bring five man pressures on most plays and finally the Bears defense will be a much tougher nut to crack on the ground. There's a risk here of talking about the Bears much like most people were talking about the Saints last week, but the simple fact of life is that this Bears team is much stronger defensively than the Saints, albeit with a little less punch on offense. Yes, the much maligned Jay Cutler has the chance to finally win his playoff stripes. All he has to do is handle the Seahawks pass rush, which is a lot easier than it sounds, and then get the ball to playmakers like Devin Hester and Johnny Knox, which is also a lot easier than it sounds. But I'm leaning towards the side that says well done to Seattle for coming this far, but you're probably not going any further. The combo of defensive ends Israel Idonije and Julius Peppers is unlike anything the Seahawks line has seen for a while, and given the pretty shoddy nature of the Seahawks O-line it might very well get ugly, quickly. But then that's what everyone was saying about the game with the Saints last week. The winner will host Green Bay in the NFC Championship game. New York Jets @ New England Patriots: Let's face it, this game is probably more hotly anticipated than even the Ravens/Steelers game was. For that we have to thank the big mouth of Rex Ryan and his Jets players who decided that rather than just leaving the Hornets nest alone, they would instead endeavour to poke it repeatedly with the biggest stick they could find until it fell off the tree and split. Probably even more entertaining was listening to Wes Welker slip as many foot references into his press conference as possible (I believe he hit eleven in just under 8 mins). But the time is at hand now to find out who has put their best foot forward and who's been putting their foot in their mouth. On paper, it looks like the Jets are about to get brutally crushed beneath Belichicks boot (and Super Bowl ring(s)) much as they did in week 13 (45-3). Just the other day I put up the pictorial proof on this very site that Darrelle Revis can be beaten. We don't need pictures to tell us that Antonio Cromartie can beaten, or that he is a little, shall we say, "tackle shy". Probably the weakest link, and Rex must know it, is quarterback Mark Sanchez. His only stroke of luck is that the Patriots haven't exactly been the masters of the blitz this year. Otherwise he could be in for a tough day. This Patriots secondary has already shown a taste for interceptions and any flutter balls from Sanchez will be in dangerous territory with the Pats lurking around every corner. Oh, and this before we get to the small matter of the Patriots offense. Tom Brady. Deion Branch. Wes Welker. Aaron Hernandez. Rob Gronkowski. Danny Woodhead. Julian Edelman. BenJarvus-Green Ellis. Brandon Tate. Should I stop now? The Patriots offense is playing as well as any in the league has this season. Drive after drive, like a methodical robotic machine, the Patriots have driven down the field time and again, with Brady firing the ball in all directions and ably supported (for a change) by the solid running game. This is genuinely a scary offensive team that gives Defensive coordinators nightmares. But are they unbeatable? No. Not by a long shot. Aside from regular season losses pre-Randy Moss trade, the Patriots were also taken to the wire by a Packers team that was missing Matt Flynn. The key was physical football on offense that kept the ball away from Brady, and a decent pass rush on offense. People forget that under constant, heavy pressure, Brady is just as susceptible to mistakes as you or eye in our daily work (well, almost). And it turns out that those things are precisely what the Jets specialise in. Their ground game is infinitely better than their passing attack and Rex Ryan is one of the acknowledged masters of the blitz in this league. He also showed his tactical prowess last week against the Colts, leaving gaping holes in his line for the Colts to run at, knowing full well that the ball out of Peyton Mannings hands was a good thing and that the Colts could not sustain any kind of successful rushing attack for the duration of the game. What will Rex Ryan come up with for the Patriots? I'm not sure, but you can bet that Bill Belichick is standing on the opposite sideline with an equally impressive game plan in hand. It's going to be fun to watch, and even more fun if the Jets lose. I'm not sure if the slice of the humble pie they'll have to eat will fit inside the state of New York. Plus, who's going to foot the bill for it?

Divisional Round preview (part 1)

So something has just occurred to me. After waking up and recovering from a night spent celebrating (read: drinking) due to my friends send off party for his old house (his home for some 20+ years now), I've just realised that I didn't do my preview for Saturday's games. If I'm quick, I might just be able to squeeze them in before kick off (4:30pm ET/8:00pm ET). Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers: This is the battle everyone has been talking about. The Ravens and the Steelers, clashing once more for playoff glory and the right to face the winner of the Jets/Patriots game in the AFC Championship. Oh, and there is also the small matter of one of the most intense rivalries in the NFL. Not only do the two teams go back and forth every year for bragging rights in the AFC North, but you get the distinct impression that there's a point of personal pride among two notoriously tough defenses as to who will give up the least ground, who will hit harder and who will weather that punishment the longest. This it would appear, is often just as important as the score. Certainly Baltimore would love nothing more than to pounce on their rivals today. Having won the first clash this season, the Ravens then went down at home in week 13 in probably one of the toughest and most entertaining defensive battles the league has seen in a while. It was a defensive play, Troy Polamalu coming free on a blitz, that forced the big play upon which the game ultimately hinged. Now the trash talk has been flying, especially from the Ravens side, as Baltimore looks to gain any edge it can coming into this game. It appears they've even been so successful that they've convinced a lot of people in the media that they're the favourites for this one now. Baltimore has, if nothing else, become the fashionable pick for this game. And there's a lot of reasons why that might be true. They have a truly excellent running back in Ray Rice. As a ball carrier his cutting ability and vision might just be unparalleled in the NFL right now. As a pass receiver he has a knack for finding space as he works against linebackers with his acceleration. In pass protection.... yeah, we'll leave that. The old axiom "if you're not going to say something nice, say nothing at all" applies here. They also have Joe Flacco, one of the better quarterbacks to enter the NFL in the last few years. Flacco has had his struggles, but he also had his moments. I fear that Flacco holds onto the ball too long for my liking and seems to struggle with his consistency, but he also has those periods where he finds a groove (or a lot of TE Todd Heap) and starts moving the chains. When he does that consistently, the Ravens have a great shot at winning. Every QB however needs an O-line and receivers, to which end the Ravens are so-so. Their O-line is.... "if you're not going to say anything nice." Well it's ok. I think sometimes people give them a little too much credit in the running game. Without the backs they have, I'm not sure Baltimore's rushing attack would be as productive. In pass protection the Ravens are also very up and down. One minute they're solid, then the next they're parting like the red sea. I don't trust them, lets put it that way. I do trust Anquan Boldin and the Ravens receiver corps though. They've managed to subtly avoid investing any youth in that group this season and it's had mixed results. They're usually pretty dependable pass catchers and also crisp route runners. They help Flacco by positioning themselves well in relation to covering defenders and they fight for every pass thrown their way. The trouble is, they're not exactly spring chickens, and of all the things a defense worries about, having the top blown off their coverage is not one of them. But who do I trust the most? The Ravens D. Let me read off some names for you; Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, Haloti Ngata, Ed Reed. Those are all players who have a case for being the number one at their position and that's just the tip, the tip, of the Ravens defensive iceberg. This unit has consistently shown it's pedigree throughout the season. Ngata fills holes on the line, breaks double teams and moves laterally down the LOS scrimmage like no other athlete on any NFL field currently. Ray Lewis fills the slots behind him always seeming to pop up in the right place as he reads the flow of the backs. He has a knack in pass coverage, especially when the intended play breaks down, of finding the QB's safety valve and coming up with the big play. Terrell Suggs is Terrell Suggs. Speed, power, great use of the arms, determination and relentless pursuit. These are all things that you don't ever have to hope you'll gte from Suggs, they're things that you know you will get from Suggs. Without question. And what's the best way to compliment a pass rushing beast, a fiend of the backfield? With a center fielder type safety who has range that sometimes defies belief and an instinct for making plays on the ball. Ed Reed is the perfect example of a defensive player whose experience and positioning can make up for the loss of a yard or two in pace. So with all that said, the Ravens are looking pretty good for the win now right? Don't be so sure. There's the small matter of the Steelers to contend with. You know, the Pittsburgh Steelers. That team, black and yellow uniforms, from Pennsylvania. A few Super Bowl rings I think. Maybe one or two. Or was it six? I forget. All I know is this; people are grossly underestimating the Steelers. Baltimore are good, but looking around right now and listening to everyone in collective press giving their opinions, you'd be forgiven for thinking that the Ravens had already got this one in the bag and were making enquiries to various hotels ahead of the AFC Championship game. Well let's just remind ourselves who the Steelers are; QB Ben Roethlisberger. Off field indiscretions aside (and don't forget that Roethlisberger has never been charged with anything), Roethlisberger is one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. That's just an irrefutable, inescapable fact. The guy has a cannon arm, he's big, tough and leads the league in highlight reel worthy escapes from the pocket. Like Flacco he has tendency to hold onto the ball far too long, but unlike Flacco he has developed the necessary skill set to counter that. Probably one of the most important of those skills is his ability to understand when even he, the current master of pocket escapology, is beaten. Whether it's throwing the ball away, flipping it away or just eating the sack, these are the skills that guys like Tony Romo and in particular Eli Manning haven't learnt, and probably never will judging by their performances in recent years. This gives the Steelers a huge weapon, as always. It provides them with the ability to make big plays deep down the field, while mitigating some of the risk involved with such "broken" plays. Given that they have Mike Wallace on their side, a deep threat receiver who has the potential to blast the roof off the the Ravens secondary, and you have a serious weapon for the Steelers to exploit. Their rushing attack isn't too shabby either. Rashard Mendenhall, Mewelde Moore, Issac Redman, Jonathan Dwyer. These are all good running backs who can make a difference in this game. Given the expected low scoring nature of the contest and the importance that field position could play, having a corps of solid running backs could be a serious advantage to the Steelers offense. A weakness could be their O-line. For whatever reason, Flozell Adams on the right hand side has been a real weak link. Maybe it's because he's more used to playing on the left, but whatever the problem is, it's a big one. The loss of Willie Colon and Max Starks has been huge for the Steelers. On the bright side, rookie Maurkice Pouncey (watch list) has done very well anchoring the line from the center spot and OG Chris Kemoeatu has played some excellent football too. Overall though, there is a certain vulnerability to this unit that the Ravens pass rush will look to exploit. On defense, things get much, much brighter. I'm not even going to ring off some names because a) you should know them all by now and b) there is too many to get through. The Steelers D is legitmately very, very deep at D-line and linebacker, although certain areas of the secondary give them the odd scare from time to time. But the numbers tell it all. The Steelers lead the entire league through the regular season in almost every single important defensive category. They are simply one of the finest units in the history of the NFL. Not just solid all round, which they are, but also packed with play making potential. This is why I find it so odd that hardly anyone fancies the Steelers, especially given that they're the home side. It'll be a close game, very close, and just like that week 13 meeting it might be that one big play makes all the difference. Given that knowledge you'd have to say that the Steelers have an offense less likely to flinch and give up the big turnover, while their defense is probably better prepared thanks to its depth of talent to force a big turnover out of the Ravens. If I was picking the game, a futile exercise that I've long since given up on, I imagine I would have picked the Steelers. But the Ravens aren't being hotly tipped without reason. As we've seen they do have a lot of talent on board and this one will might well go right down to the last possession. Enjoy it, because it's going to be one hell of a playoff game. Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons: Last week the Packers played in a game that was touted by some as the NFC Championship game come early. This week the Packers are playing in a game touted by some as the NFC Championship game come early. I'm detecting a running theme here, somewhere. My Spider sense tells me that a lot of people might believe the Packers are destined to play in the NFC Championship game. Or possibly three of them. Which wouldn't come as a surprise. The Packers are very, very good. Up and down that team, they have all kinds of goodness. Offense, defense, even the kicking game. They've soldiered on despite numerous injuries to key players and now here they are, in the divisional game. The problem is really one of potential. The Packers started the season with the potential to win the NFC North and go all the way to the Super Bowl. But unfortunately, potential is not always the most reliable indicator of success. It's the prime reason I've given up making picks, because picking teams is always based on potential. You're always trying to predict what will happen based on the knowledge that certain teams do certain things very well. I expected the Chiefs to come out running the ball from start to finish against the Ravens because of the success they've had doing that this season. They had the potential to dominate the clock and make life very difficult for the Ravens. Instead, they abandoned their running game and were cleaned off the field. This is the worry for the Packers. With that D-line and linebacking corps, they have the potential to cause the Falcons rushing game a lot of problems. They have the potential to put Matt Ryan under a lot of potential and their revamped secondary for 2010 has the potential to shut down Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez et al. But potential is an uncertain thing. Having beat the Eagles and creamed the Bills, the Packers were set for a week 3 pounding of the Bears, who had struggled to beat the Lions and Cowboys in the previous two weeks. Instead the Bears came out on top 20-17. Then Green Bay scraped past Detroit themselves, 28-26. Then somehow, god knows how, the Packers fell to the Redskins in week 5. Thus we've learnt that the Packers are great providing they actually do all the things that we expect them to. When they don't they fall flat on their faces. Despite all that defensive quality, despite Aaron Rodgers being a top QB in the NFL, despite a WR corps that's as good as any in the league, the Packers are more than capable of throwing it all away. Which is handy for the Falcons. They too have an excellent offense, led by Matt Ryan and supported by the able cast of Michael Turner, Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White. Their defense is strong, with LB Curtis Lofton as the center piece. Their pass rush was under rated coming into the season but now the names John Abraham and Kroy Biermann are synonymous with getting into the offensive backfield. Brent Grimes is possibly one of the best (and most highly under rated) corners in the league today. But the Falcons have been beneficiaries this season of some less than stellar play at times. Trust me, as a 49ers fans I watched in horror as we seemed to have the Falcons done and dusted, till a fantastic play combined with some rank stupidity led to a fumble that gave the ball back to the Falcons and set them up for the winning drive. At times they've been lucky, but when lady luck smiles on them, they pounce. In short, if you mess about with the Falcons, it will come back to haunt you. And that's what I think Green Bay fans should be concerned about and Atlanta fans should be highly optimistic about. It might only take one slip. It might only take one pick. It might be a fumble or a sack at an inopportune moment, but the Falcons are more than capable of winning it. If Green Bay can play their "A game", then I fear the Falcons impressive season will come to an end this Saturday night. But if they wince, flinch or slip up in any other way, it could be curtains for the Packers. The Falcons have it in themselves to win this. They just need Green Bay to open the door a little for them, then they can do the rest themselves. So even though the hype has been all focused on Green Bay, don't be surprised if you see the red and black of Atlanta in the NFC Championship game next week.