Monday, November 30, 2009

Week 12 NFL results and recap.

With all of today's games now done, it's time to recap all the Sunday action from Week 12 of the NFL: Buccaneers 17 @ Falcons 20 -- The injury to Matt Ryan had Falcons fans holding their collective breath. As Chris Redman stepped onto the field, naturally everyone was a little nervous. But fear not as he threw 23/41, for 243 yards and 2 TD's. Not bad. If the Falcons can just remember that they have three good backs to play with then maybe they will recover some semblance of pride from an otherwise under par season. The Buccaneers just looked like, well the Buccaneers. Dolphins 14 @ Bills 31 -- Yesterday when I made my pick I was worried that the Dolphins might turn into the Panthers (I hate the Panthers) and try to throw to win. I was confident however that they would realise the Bills have the worse rush defense in all of football and that throwing the ball with essentially a rookie QB against dangerous safety Jairus Byrd would be stupid!! Unfortunately, I was wrong, as Chad Henne's 31 pass attempts and three interceptions prove. The Dolphins did run it 27 times with Ricky Williams (who added another pick on a Wildcat play) but for some reason didn't think to make more use of Lex Hilliard or Pat White. Meanwhile the star of the show was Ryan Fitzpatrick. His 246 yards with a TD didn't stun, but his 7 carries for 50 yards and a TD helped keep the Bills ticking. Redskins 24 @ Eagles 27 -- The Eagles found their run game again while the Redskins lost theirs. Again. Couple that with big plays in the passing game and some superb ball hawking by Asante Samuel and you have a recipe for an Eagles win. They'll probably be a bit worried about having to constantly fight from behind though. Seahawks 27 @ Rams 17 -- Justin Forsett continues to impress for the Seahawks and amazingly won the battle of the running backs, even though Steven Jackson was on the other side. The fact that the Seahawks contained Jackson to 89 yards off 23 carries is probably the most miraculous thing about this game. Panthers 6 @ Jets 17 -- At times like this, I'm reminded of the scene in the film "Speed" when Dennis Hoppers' character says to that piece of wood, sorry, Keanu Reeves, "You think you're so smart huh Jack?". It's like he was saying that to me personally, after I claimed yesterday that the Panthers would stick to their normal tradition of being run heavy one week and pass heavy the next. This week they were due to be run heavy and win. But they craftily tried to break the trend and be pass heavy.... and threw 4 picks and lost. 34 passes against a mere 25 runs. Honestly, it's like they conspire deliberately to screw up my picks. Worse, the Jets did the opposite. Normally they are so excited about Mark Sanchez that they abandon their rushing attack too and end up throwing picks a plenty. But instead they threw just 18 times against 39 rushes. I think they were colluding with the Panthers to do me over. I hate the Panthers. Browns 7 @ Bengals 16 -- Brady Quinn went aerial this week... and completed just 15/34 for a nice, round 100 yards. At least he didn't get picked off this week. Carson Palmer meanwhile continues to slump a little, completing just 13/24 for 10 more yards than Quinn and a TD. The big story was the Bengals rushing attack. Bernard Scott chalked up 18 carries for 87 yards and Larry Johnson notched 107 yards off 22 carries. Proof that the Bengals O-line can make anyone look good. Colts 35 @ Texans 27 -- Honestly, it wouldn't be the 2009 Colts unless they waited till the last quarter to pull out a win. Both QB's were razor sharp in their accuracy and the Texans can take a lot of promising things out of this game. Sadly a W isn't one of them. With the Jaguars losing to the 49ers this win wraps up the AFC South for the Colts. Chiefs 14 @ Chargers 43 -- The Chargers went mental again by rushing the ball with 8 different people. The only person that mattered though was LaDainian Tomlinson, who clocked up another 2 touchdowns on his all time tally. Add another two through the air courtesy of Philip Rivers to Antonio Gates and you have a rout. The Chiefs look like their offense is finally ready to come off life support and start breathing for itself..... but they need to draft big on defense next year or they'll be spending another season in the morgue. Jaguars 3 @ 49ers 20 -- There is a golden rule in San Francisco. That rule is to only win when I pick them to get beaten badly. The Jaguars hardly helped me out, determined to each week give Rashad Jennings his mandatory two carries and nothing more, while confining Maurice Jones-Drew to just 15 carries (which he converted into 75 yards). David Garrard didn't do too bad passing (25/36, 307 yards) but he failed to find the end zone even once, which.... is kinda bad. Alex Smith found it twice however. But still, he threw the ball 41 times and hit just 27, for 232 yards. It took most of the game to pass before they decided to give Frank Gore anymore than just 10 carries, finally finishing with 16. This is a RB who not long ago ran for over 1,600 yards in one season. As good as the progress of Smith, Crabtree, Davis and Walker has been, the 49ers key weapon is being discarded by the wayside. I'd want out if I was him. Bears 10 @ Vikings 36 -- If it wasn't for the 1 in their loss column, the Vikings would be the front runners to win the big prize. It's that simple. And in my opinion, they are. Favre is almost flawless these days. The weapons he has around him are stunning. And their defense is more than a match for most offenses these days. Contrast that with the Bears. Cutler hands out interceptions like confetti, has few real tools to work with, no run game for support, and the Bears defense couldn't stop a 3 year old from rushing for 100 yards against them. It really was a game of opposites. Cardinals 17 @ Titans 20 -- The big concern for the Titans recently has been whether Vince Young can grab his team by the horns and drag it kicking and screaming across the finish line. Not just managing a game, but taking it over. Today, that question was answered. 27/43, 387 yards and a TD. Most importantly, the TD came right at the death, boosting Youngs clutch credentials. After the score the whole team was celebrating with each other, congratulating themselves on a hard won victory. The team spirit and camaraderie they displayed gives you a glimpse into why they are now 5-6 and possibly a glimpse into why they may finish the regular season 10-6. With Chris Johnson chalking up 154 yards and a TD on the ground as well, that's a mean looking offense to compliment a mean looking defense. If not this year, then next....... Steelers 17 @ Ravens 20 -- The Steelers and the Ravens went toe to toe in a physical, grind it out type of defensive contest that I just loved every minute of. They were determined to copy the above score though, even to the extent of taking it to overtime. And while I picked the Steelers to win I'm comforted by the fact that they nearly did even without 'Big Ben', and that my analysis of the Ravens was spot on. They just can't generate any meaningful offense lately. Every now and again they'll spontaneously explode with a big play, but most of the time they just tick along, chugging and choking like a battered old Ford. The Steelers have issues without Roethlisberger. Dennis Dixon was ok, he even made some good runs (one for a TD, one hauled back for a penalty). Ultimately though, either he or the coaching staff were nervous about him drop back passing. The almost complete lack of a pass threat and the under utilisation of play-action meant the Ravens could stack up heavy on the run without too much fear of getting torched. They were right. So, that's all the games covered until the Patriots play (read: beat) the Saints. Including the games from Thursday, I'm 10-5 this week for picks. Here's hoping the Pats will make it 11.

Sunday, November 29, 2009

Week 12 NFL picks

So here we are, as promised, with my Week 12 NFL picks: Buccaneers@ Falcons: Even without Michael Turner, I still like the Falcons in this one. The Buc's may next year be a very good passing team. Their trouble is that their QB is still learning and they have no ground game to ease the pressure. Not expecting this to be a blowout, but it might be a more comfortable victory than the Falcons have been used to this season. Falcons win. Dolphins@ Bills: Mismatch time, i.e. the Dolphins rushing attack versus the Bills rush defense. I think Ricky Williams is more than the Bills can handle. But then, I often say the same thing about DeAngelo Williams of the Panthers and yet they'll come right back and throw the ball all game (I hate them Panthers). Unfortunately the Dolphins have a habit of doing the same. It was this approach that cost them the game against the Saints and this time it could cost them heavily again, as Bills safety Jarius Byrd leads the league in interceptions. Still, Buffalo has struggled to generate anything close to resembling an effective offense and against the Dolphins, I expect that to continue. Dolphins win. Redskins@ Eagles: Ugh, always a tricky picky. The thing with the Eagles is that one week they come out and toast a team for 400+ yards. Next week they'll come out and struggle to get a first down. Combine this with their suspect redzone offense and you have a recipe for disaster. Combine it with the Redskins highly rated pass defense and things begin to take an apocalyptic turn. But then you know, you just know that the Redskins offense will let you down if you take them. I'm going with the Eagles, but it wouldn't come as a shock if they rack up a ton of yards through the air and yet just a field goal or something stupid like that. Eagles win. Seahawks@ Rams: I flipped a coin and it came out Seahawks. In all seriousness both team are bad, but the Rams are just slightly worse overall. Seahawks win. Panthers@ Jets: Every week the Panthers conspire and scheme and machinate and use any other adjective that describes under handed tactics, in order to ruin my picks. Well this week I've got them in a bind. Every week they do the opposite of what I say. When I say they'll run, they pass. When I say they're just gonna pass all game, they run (I hate the Panthers). Last week they passed it up. That means this week they'll run it all over the Jets. And so this week I'm backing them to run the ball and win the game. That, and I think Mark Sanchez will throw 4 or 5 more picks. Panthers win. Browns@ Bengals: Ha ha, Bengals win. Colts@ Texans: This one is tough to choose. I Know the Colts are undefeated and they've played really well so far, but every week they just seem to scrape past people. As odd as this may sound, I think their offense doesn't do enough to help a great D. Yeah, Peyton Manning, who everyone is calling to be the MVP this season (don't get me started on the MVP award), doesn't produce enough offense. They just can't seem to clock up enough points. And for that reason, I'm putting my head on the block and backing...... the Colts. I just don't think the Texans have enough to overcome the boys from Indy. Colts win. Chiefs@ Chargers: Chargers win. San Diego is flying lately. The Chiefs are sort of ambling along, just starting to find their feet now Larry Johnson is gone. Neither team astounds on defense, but the Chargers have the punch to outscore their opponents in this one. Chargers win. Jaguars@ 49'ers: Oh boy, my boys in San Francisco have a tough test in hand. Both teams can run the ball, both teams can pass it. Trouble is, San Fran practically refuses to run the ball this year. And unfortunately, the better WR Michael Crabtree gets, the less inclined the 49'ers are to run. So, all things considered, I think the Jaguars get this. Jaguars win. Bears@ Vikings: The latest injury updates put Vikings RB Adrian Peterson as being questionable. Even that wont stop the men in purple from prevailing this weekend. The Bears rely on Jay Cutler to win games for them. With Jared Allen tearing off the edge, that doesn't bode well for Chicago. Brett Favre should have no trouble cutting up the Bears secondary and even if Peterson doesn't play, Chester Taylor is an adequate backup. Vikings win. Cardinals@ Titans: Question marks hang over Card's QB Kurt Warner. Even if he plays though, I think the Titans take this. Their ground game has taken things to the next level recently and their pass defense will be salivating at the prospect of a Cardinals team that will likely throw the ball 80% of the time. Titans win. Steelers@ Ravens: Ben Roethlisberger is the latest of a number of important players who may not see much, if any action on Sunday. Still, the Ravens offense that was so highly praised at the start of the season has withered and disappeared of late. The Steelers without 'Big' Ben should still be able to run the ball effectively with a three headed monster of Parker, Moore and Mendenhall. "Should" being the operative word. Whether they will or not is a different matter. I think they will. I hope they will. Steelers win. Patriots@ Saints: Big time test for the Saints. Apparently they're been moaning that some people still don't take them seriously. That might have something to do with the fact that they keep barely scraping past average teams. Several opponents have done themselves out of wins over the Saints through suspicious play calling. The reason I, like many people, still don't rate the Saints is because they've not really been tested by a solid team with excellent coaching staff. Well now the wait is over. And the Saints hit it at a bad time, as CB's Jabari Greer and Tracey Porter are still out (to my knowledge). Expect Welker to have another big day as the Pats try and keep Drew Brees off the field. And with Brees's tendency to look for completions over the middle of the field, expect the well organised Pats to have that scouted and for LB Leigh Bodden to have another week of filling his pockets with picks. Patriots win. So there we have it. Another week of educated (sort of) guesses and hopefully another week of wins. I'm already 2-1 this week after Thursday Night Football, so fingers crossed for another big showing. And as always, if you're enjoying what you read, feel free to share the knowledge with as many people as you can. The more the merrier.

Saturday, November 28, 2009

Week 12 NFL picks

So I was supposed to do my picks as normal yesterday, but I was interrupted by a bizarre incident involving a loft, a huge sheet of plastic and some nails. Picks will follow shortly though. Promise.

Friday, November 27, 2009

Thursday Night recap

Now that Thursday nights games are done, it's time to have a peek and see how my picks got on. Packers 34 @ Lions 12: I had a feeling it might end like this. Basically three players made the difference; Stafford, Rodgers and Woodson. Stafford put his excellent performance from Sunday behind him and promptly threw 4 interceptions. Turning the ball over like that has plagued Stafford all season, you just have to hope he will get better with time, which I think he will. It also doesn't help to only get two completions to your best receiver, Calvin Johnson. Last week Johnson caught 7 passes for 161 yards. Use him. As for Aaron Rodgers, he got the ball to his two best receivers a combined 11 times for 195 yards and a TD. That's the way to do it. Rodgers finished just two yards shy of 350 yards passing with 3 TDs and no picks. And finally, probably the most impressive of them all was Packers CB Charles Woodson who despite being 333 years old managed to notch up 6 tackles, 1 assist, 1 sack, 2 interceptions and a forced fumble. Nice job. 1-0. Raiders 7 @ Cowboys 24: Yesterday I said "..... the Cowboys do have the kind of rushing attack that could rip Oakland apart, but they just don't have the balls to say no to Tony Romo so expect that great triple team to be under utilized once again". Uhm, it looks like Wade Phillips and his crew grew the required balls overnight. Felix Jones and Tashard Choice combined alone for over 130 yards on just 10 carries, with Marion Barber tacking on another 61. I never expected the Raiders to do anything special, I just didn't think the 'Boys would either. Boy was I wrong. Romo even found the courage to largely ignore Roy Williams in the open field and go for his two best receivers (Austin & Witten) instead, who paid him back handsomely. 1-1. Giants 6 @ Broncos 26: Again I'd like to quote myself from yesterday "And that's the issue I have with the Giants in this game. They don't/won't run the ball enough. Instead they put it all on Eli and expect him to roll out a repeat of his Superbowl performance. And it's not gonna happen". Psychic or what? 40 passes, completed just 24, and only 15 carries for his backs. That's always bad news. Eli is not that good. Meanwhile I had a feeling (as also mentioned yesterday) that the Broncos might take some shots down field against a banged up Giants secondary. And they did. Brandon Marshall was displaying some superb one handed skills as the Broncos offense finally found some life again. 2-1. Not a bad start pick wise, but there's plenty of action coming up this week to either boost my tally or tear me down. Tomorrow I'll tell you exactly which teams I'm backing.

Thursday, November 26, 2009

Thursday Night Football picks

It's Wednesday night/Thursday morning, which can only mean one thing....... Thursday Night Football picks!!! Packers @ Detroit : Well, what can you say? Detroit has, without doubt, the worst pass defense I've seen in a long time. The Packers meanwhile have probably one of the best overall receiving corps in the league. And to cap it all, they're just finding their running game again. Last time these two teams met the Lions were missing QB Matthew Stafford, and by a cruel twist of fate they may be without him again for this game. I'm sorry Lions fans, I can't see how your team is gonna compete in this one. Packers win. Raiders @ Cowboys : Hmmm, not as bad a match up as you might think. Yes the Raiders suck, but so do the Cowboys at the moment. Expect the men in Silver and Black to put shutdown corner Nnamdi Asomugha on Cowboys receiver Miles Austin, and then get pressure on Tony Romo with trade scoop Richard Seymour. To counter, the Cowboys do have the kind of rushing attack that could rip Oakland apart, but they just don't have the balls to say no to Tony Romo so expect that great triple team to be under utilized once again. I think, as scary as this might be, that the Raiders might actually win this game. Raiders win (did I just say that?). Giants @ Broncos : Everyone is jumping on the New York bandwagon. And I'm not really sure why. They're not all that special of late. Last week they barely scraped a win against what's been a pretty average Falcons team this season. The only down point everyone is moaning about is the lack of production from their run game. Now I'm sorry, but it's obvious that it's not for a want of trying. The trouble is that the Giants don't run the ball anywhere near as often as they pass. You can't post gaudy numbers if you don't get the ball. Just ask Frank Gore or Terrell Owens. Why isn't the Panthers rushing attack leading the league? Is it because DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart have gone cold? No, it's because the Panthers just love Jake Delhomme (I hate them Panthers). And that's the issue I have with the Giants in this game. They don't/won't run the ball enough. Instead they put it all on Eli and expect him to roll out a repeat of his Superbowl performance. And it's not gonna happen. Especially against two of the best defenders out there; Broncos Safety Brian Dawkins and Cornerback Champ Bailey. And what's more, people have been hitting the Broncos offense hard for not taking deep shots. But they did against the Redskins. And I think they will against this banged up Giants secondary. It's a bit of a hail mary still, but I'm taking the Broncos. Broncos win. And there is even a little bit of time left for me to shell out some extra, extra credit: Matthew Stafford (Lions) -- I know he already got some yesterday, but that's why it's called extra, extra credit. And I've now had the full chance to check out those last two plays from Sunday. The NFL Network did a great job putting up a video on NFL.com of Stafford wired for sound. What you realise listening to the things he said is that the guy is tough. Physically, but most importantly, mentally. He has the physical attributes, we know that. He will get better at reading coverage and making plays as time goes on. But that toughness he showed will endear him to his team more than any TD pass. It's the kind of thing that separates the men from the boys, and the Matthew Stafford's from the JaMarcus Russell's.

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Week 11 Extra Credit

The week is done, time to shell out some extra credit: Jake Delhomme (Panthers) -- The dude must be a magician or something. How else can you throw less than a 50% completion rate and still convince the coaches next week to place the game on your shoulders again? Even with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart in the backfield. Joey Porter (Dolphins) -- 7 tackles, 1 assist and 2 sacks. Mean machine keeping the Dolphins D rolling. Derrick Mason (Ravens) -- When you hit 35, people start to question your ability to produce on the field. Mason caught 9 balls for 142 yards. Nice. London Fletcher (Redskins) -- 8 tackles, 5 assists, 1 interception and a forced fumble. The Redskins D can still do it. Shame their offense cant. Tony Romo (Cowboys) -- Only threw one touchdown, but still managed to win. The guy must eat lucky charms for breakfast. Patrick Crayton (Cowboys) -- When the Cowboys need a clutch play, either offensively or special teams, it's always this man stepping up to the plate. Brady Quinn (Browns) -- 21/33, 304 yards and 4 TDs are you kidding me? Now where did the real Browns offense go? Matthew Stafford (Lions) -- 26/43, 422 yards, 5 TDs and we'll overlook the 2 picks.Now, where did the real Lions offense go? Larry Foote (Lions) -- 9 tackles, 3 assists and a sack. Just what the Doctor ordered. Larry Foote might just qualify as being a human life support machine. Frank Gore (49'ers) -- thought he was going to be the center piece of the new 49'ers offense, but sadly he has to spend another year watching his team fruitlessly toss the ball around. The desire to involve Michael Crabtree likely has something to do with that. Shame. Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay) -- only sacked twice. He's getting better. Terrell Owens (Bills) -- 9 catches, 197 yards, and a TD. Now do you understand why he complains when he doesn't get the ball? Chris Chambers (Chiefs) -- Brought in a few weeks ago off waivers, he's learnt the system quickly, nabbing 4 catches for 119 yards against the Steelers. Brett Favre (Vikings) -- Just bow. That is all. Michael Boley (Giants) -- When they needed someone to come up big, he did. 11 tackles, 2 assists, and a sack. Pierre Thomas and Michael Bell (Saints) -- Forget about Reggie Bush's high flying antics, these two are the real drive that pushes the Saints to victory week in, week out. James Laurinaitis (Seahawks) -- Posted 16 tackles as he valiantly tried to stop the Cardinals. Mark Sanchez (Jets) -- 8/21, with 4 INTs. It's the "San-chise" now remember? Wes Welker (Patriots) -- 15 catches, 192 yards, and the guy is only 5'9. Tully Banta-Cain (Patriots) -- 4 tackles, an assist, 2 sacks and a forced fumble. Nice days work. Leigh Bodden (Patriots) -- Only made 3 tackles, but 3 interceptions made a big impact. Bruce Gradkowski (Raiders) -- 17/34, 183 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. On any other team that would be just a run of the mill performance, barely worth a mention. But for the Raiders, that practically makes you Tom Brady. I can't help but think all the hype surrounding this guy is gonna look stupid when he falls flat on his face soon. Tyvon Branch (Raiders) -- Who? Yeah I know. But 11 tackles, an assist, a sack and a forced fumble, may gain the 22 year old sophomore a little more attention. Michael Vick (Eagles) -- Busted out a 34 yard run. Yeah that's it. He might actually draw some hefty attention in the off season trade market though, what with the recent performances of Vince Young in Tennessee. Maybe Vick is paying Young a bonus every time he rushes for a first down. Lance Briggs (Bears) -- 10 tackles, an assist and a sack. The Bears could do with more play like this.... Charles Tillman (Bears) -- .... or this. 6 tackles, an assist and 3 forced fumbles. One of the few players it would seem who's learnt to punch the ball at the point where it meets the elbow. Vince Young (Titans) -- His throwing stats weren't stellar, and nor were his rushing stats. But he did do two key things; He didn't throw a pick (ok so he fumbled once but hey, at least he's not Jay Cutler), and when he did run, he picked up a collection of important first downs. That is gonna cause big problems for defensive co-ordinators in the future. Well, that's all we have time for this week. As always, if you like what you read, spread the word.

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

week 11 recap.

Recap time!! I was exceptionally busy yesterday, denying me the chance to do a recap then and also denying me the chance to check out highlights of some of the games, so I'll just have to quickly go through the weekends action now. Lets get on with it shall we, remembering that I took the Panthers for Thursday night (hate the Panthers) which leaves me 0-1 so far: Colts 17 @ Ravens 15 : The Colts seem to have a thing about tight games. No matter who they're playing, they seem determined to only win the game by a few points. Still, the Colts bandwagon rolls on. 1-1. Redskins 6 @ Cowboys 7 : Betts got himself injured and what ensued was probably one of the worst games of football in recent memory. The Cowboys are really starting to struggle lately. It's usually about this time of year that they disintegrate offensively, and this year looks no different. 1-2. Browns 37 @ Lions 38 : Who in their right mind would have picked this as probably the most entertaining game of the week? Check out Brady Quinn spreading the ball around, albeit against the worst pass defense in the league right now. And the Lions rallying to win it with no time on the clock? Crazy stuff. 2-2. 49'ers 24 @ Packers 30 : The score doesn't do Green Bay justice, as they leaped into an early lead. Contrary to my analysis on Friday, the 49'ers rushed the ball with Frank Gore just 7 times. I feel sorry for Frank. The guy has pro bowl potential in spades. I could understand if he wanted out of San Fran. 2-3. Bills 15 @ Jaguars 18 : Both Teams struggled on the ground. For Buffalo that's no real surprise. For Jacksonville that's big. Jones-Drew gives them their best chance of winning and I think they need to spell Rashad Jennings in more to ease the load. Their passing game is still a little inconsistent. 3-3. Steelers 24 @ Chiefs 27 : What in gods name happened? Answer, Ben Roethlisberger threw the ball 42 times. 42!!! The Steelers are suffering from "Mark Sanchez syndrome" as I like to call it. This is where a QB has a few good games, pretty solid, and then for no reason his team instantly heaps it's entire offensive hopes upon his back. 42 passes? When you have Parker, Mendenhall and Moore in the backfield? Are you kidding me? 3-4. Sehawks 9 @ Vikings 35 : Surprise, surprise. 4 TDs for the ancient one mark his place as the top QB in the land right now. 4-4. Falcons 31 @ Giants 34 : Mannings foot has healed, just ask the Falcons! 5-4. Saints 38 @ Buccaneers 7 : Ok, so this was perhaps a little optimistic on my part. 5-5. Cardinals 21 @ Rams 13 : Cards keep finding ways to win. Playing the Rams helps a lot. Losing Warner is a blow, but their rushing attack has matured at just the right time. Coach Ken Wisenhunt is sitting in his office somewhere, smiling evilly, as his grand master plan comes to fruition. 6-5. Chargers 32 @ Broncos 3 : Norv Turner is sitting in his office somewhere, smiling evilly........ as the Chargers chalk up another win, this time over their only real rivals for the division. Like the way that the Chargers aren't happy with the normal three back attack that a lot of teams favour, they went four ways against the Broncos. Worked as well. 7-5. Jets 14 @ Patriots 31 : It's the "Sanchize". Oops, no it's not. It's the "Bodden-chise". 3 picks for Bodden and another for Meriweather as the Lord of the Rings impersonators club takes the Jets to the cleaners. In Mordor. 8-5. Bengals 17 @ Raiders 20 : All the headlines seem to read "Gradkowski stuns Bengals". By completing more than 50% of his passes maybe? He still only went 17/34. Let's not forget that. The Bengals were just poor, as Palmer only connected on 14/22. 8-6. Eagles 24 @ Bears 20 : Heavens above, Cutler threw only 1 pick!! It was funny to hear Bears fans booing Matt Forte. I was thinking "c'mon guys, we all know the o-line is rubbish. Wait a minute, who the hell is Kahlil Bell?"...... and then he ran for 72 yards. Anyone getting excited that this might hail a resurgence was gutted to find out that on his next three runs he would combine for just another 9 yards. Michael Vick also came out and surprisingly rushed for more yards on one carry than he has all year combined. The Eagles still have their problems though. Like getting guys onto the field and into the huddle. 9-6. Titans 20 @ Texans 17 : The ball keeps rolling for Tennessee. Just. The wind helped them in this one, pushing Kris Browns 49 yard field goal attempt wide of the uprights. Well, they do say it's better to be lucky than good. Still, I'd rather have Chris Johnson in the backfield... oh wait, they do. 10-6. Right, that's that for the week. 10-6 not bad, but not great. The Bengals and Steelers games were a shock that otherwise would have left me at 12-4. And don't even get me started on the Panthers. I hate them. My season tally (started in week 7) now runs at 47-24. Not bad. Tomorrow I can feel some extra credit coming on.

Sunday, November 22, 2009

0-6 to 10-6?

So, can the Tennessee Titans really claw their way back from an 0-6 start to a 10-6 finish? Let's have a look.... First off, look at the secondary. Chris Hope, Cortland Finnegan and Michael Griffin all went to the Pro Bowl last year. All are now fit and healthy, returning the Titans defense back to the dominant form it found last year. Next, check out the running back tandem. Chris Johnson and Lendale White are getting involved again. And by involved, I mean the coaches in Tennessee are once again realising that last year it was largely these two guys who carried their offense to the playoffs. Johnson in particular has come into his own. The guy showed in his rookie season that he had speed. Now that has been complemented with a season's worth of experience in the NFL and he looks like arguably the most dangerous back in the land. In the passing game, his quick feet, agility and body control make him a great underneath receiver. And normally when you're talking about a QB making checkdowns, everyone sees it in a derogatory light. When you're checking down to Chris Johnson however, it's seen in a whole new light. And no, we can't talk about the Titans without bringing up Vince Young. In college, Young drew national attention because of his athletic ability and his high passer rating, largely a result of keeping the ball safe and using his checkdown receivers (that's what they're there for after all). This guy can burn you through the air, or on the ground. And he is just about a perfect fit for the current Titans team. The key is, he doesn't take silly chances, he controls the ball, and gives his offense every opportunity to break out on a big play. Defenses are in bind. On a rushing play, you have to factor in the QB as a threat, something that defenses in this league are not used to doing. You're getting Option plays that NFL teams haven't seen before. When Young drops back to pass, someone has to spy on Young and make sure he doesn't break out of the pocket for a run. And all the while the Titans are playing keep away, holding the ball and burning the clock. Any turnover against the Titans now can be crippling. And finally, we have to look at their schedule. They play Houston on Monday which they should win. Then they have, in order; the Cardinals, the Colts, Rams, Dolphins, Chargers & Seahawks. There are potential banana skins in there, don't get me wrong. But the way the Titans are playing right now, they are a match for any of those teams. The Titans have pulled the winning formula out of the bag just at the crucial moment. Can they finish 10-6? I think they can. What's more, I think they can go all the way to the promised land and book a date in Miami against the NFC's Minnesota Vikings. But you know me, I don't crown Superbowl champions in November......

Saturday, November 21, 2009

Week 11 NFL picks

Ok, Friday night/Saturday morning time, which means it's time for my week 11 picks. So far I'm already 0-1 this week (I hate them Panthers) which brings me up to 37-18 so far over these last 4 weeks or so. Last week I had a stormer, this week I'm not so confident. Anyway, here we go: Colts@ Ravens : The Colts are undefeated, but that's not why I'm taking them. I think against New England they got awful lucky to scrape a win at the end. It seemed that ultimately a lot of things conspired (metaphorically) to defeat the Patriots, including their own coach. Against a tough Ravens D I'm guessing they'll struggle a bit more than last week. The key is though, the Ravens O has gone flat. They scored just 1 offensive touchdown against the Browns, purely because they caught them out during a muddled substitution. I can't seem them keeping up with Manning. Colts win. Redskins@ Cowboys : If the Cowboys play to expectations, they should toast the Redskins. They have a three headed beast of a rushing attack. If Barber, Choice and in particular Felix Jones get going, it'll be a long afternoon for the Redskins. But, and this is a big but, if Romo gets nervous as he tends to do around this time of year, then it could go the other way. Romo has a tendency to cave under pressure, which explains the number of balls thrown Roy Williams's way last week. And against a high ranked Redskins defense, I don't like the outlook. Ladell Betts should have another big day on the ground, possibly becoming the focal point of the Redskins offense. Chuck in some play action to get the ball to Santana Moss and the Redskins have a good shout. Redskins win. Browns@ Lions : The Lions are bad, but the Browns are far worse. To cap it all off, they've lost primary playmaker Joshua Cribbs to injury. Expect Cleveland to face a lot of short fields and to have to throw to get into the game. That's always bad news for them. Stafford meanwhile has come along ok for the Lions. He has Calvin Johnson back and fit, and they are growing in confidence with their running game, powered by 2nd year back Kevin Smith. I like the Lions in this one. Lions win. 49ers@ Packers : My brilliant boys (ha ha) in Red & Gold head north to face Green Bay. And win it. The Packers defense came alive last week, but the 49ers D has been alive and kicking all season. Expect Packers QB Aaron Rodgers to spend more time chewing the grass this week. The trouble for San Fran' has been getting their offense going. I think this week, given the location and conditions, they'll turn to Frank Gore to help carry the load. And that's going to be explosive. 49ers win. Bills@ Jaguars : There is nothing, not a thing, to recommend the Bills in this one. They have the worst rushing defense in the entire league, and they're about to play host to one of the best backs in the league. Maurice Jones-Drew is going to have a field day. And on top of that, if he gets around 10 carries I can see rookie Rashad Jennings going for over 100 as well. Jaguars win. Steelers@ Chiefs : Oh lord. Jamaal Charles is in for a tough week against the leagues leading rush defense. The only other option they have is to throw the ball and try and get Dwayne Bowe and Chris Chambers involved. Not easy when you have the Steelers secondary waiting to pounce. Even with Troy Polamalu out, the Steelers D is still dangerous. That's before we even begin to talk about how good their offense is. Steelers win. Seahawks@ Vikings : Are you kidding me? Vikings win. Falcons@ Giants : The Giants have been slumping of late. Good thing then that Michael Turner is injured as it makes their task a hell of a lot easier against this Falcons team. The Giants are coming off a bye. They've had a chance to rest, heal up, organise themselves, and iron out some of the wrinkles in their game. Expect the Giants to come at the Falcons hard with their tough rushing attack and pound the Falcons light D-line. Eli should be healthy enough to pick his targets and put up some numbers. Giants win. Saints@ Buccaneers : There are two things I want you to consider here. 1) In my opinion, the Saints have been damn lucky at times to stay undefeated. Coaching errors abound by their opposition, the Saints have scraped through. 2) For all the talk about Darren Sharper as the defensive play maker, its really been CBs Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter who have kept this defensive unit on track. Their coverage play and run support has been vital. Now consider that Greer and Porter are both injured. And that Buccaneers QB Josh Freeman is just finding his groove. Every time I've picked against the Saints they've managed to rustle up some kind of miraculous escape from the jaws of doom. Not this week. Buccaneers win. Cardinals@ Rams : The Rams have the ever present threat of Steven Jackson in their backfield. But bizarrely, I'm more interested in the Cardinals rushing attack. Wells and Hightower have started stamping some authority over teams of late, relieving some of the pressure on QB Kurt Warner to do all the work himself. I like their newly found balancing act. Cardinals win. Chargers@ Broncos : The Broncos QB Kyle Orton is nursing an injury. Without him, they're a little screwed. The Chargers are just finding their groove. Rivers is making good connections through the air, Merriman is starting to tee off on opposition QBs, and Tomlinson has found some inspiration to run hard again. Watch out. Chargers win. Jets@ Patriots : During pre-season, Jets Head Coach Rex Ryan said he wasn't about to kiss Bill Belichicks Superbowl rings. Maybe not, but his team is still about to get creamed by the Patriots. Brady & Belichick will no doubt be a little annoyed with themselves for their part in last weeks 4th down debacle. This week expect them to open the taps and let the Jets have everything they've got. Expect the Jets coaches to continue pandering to Mark Sanchez, resulting in picks that the Pats offense will happily convert into points. This one could get ugly. Patriots win. Bengals@ Raiders : Bruce Gradkowski is set to start this week for the Raiders. Oh dear lord. I know I always make fun of JaMarcus Russell, often with good reason, but he has many of the same problems they have in Cleveland. Namely, his receivers suck. Even on the rare occasions when Russell makes a good choice and slots the ball in nicely, his receivers often dump it on the turf. Bruce is unlikely to change the status quo. The Bengals meanwhile are dominating in every phase of play and especially on defence. If the Raiders throw any loose passes (which they will) expect Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph to start racking up the picks. Bengals win. Eagles@ Bears : Simply put, the Bears O-line can't generate any push up front to get their rushing attack going. This means that Jay Cutler has to try and win every game single handed. That's a problem when you have a defensive assault like the Eagles generate coming to town. With Asante Samuel lurking in the Eagles secondary, it just gets worse for the Bears. On the other side of the field, the Eagles will be splitting their rushing attack between LeSean McCoy and Leonard Weaver. That equals bad news for the Bears. These two are going to have a hell of a game. Oh yeah, and the Eagles aren't to shabby when they throw the ball either. Eagles win. Titans@ Texans : Tough match. The Texans are still playing around trying to find their offensive identity. The Titans however have finally got theirs locked in stone; Give the ball to Chris Johnson and LenDale White, pound the rock, and then let Vince Young take controlled chances in the passing game. Couple that with probably the most dangerous and legitimate option attack in the league right now, and it really is a case of "Houston, we have a problem....". Titans win. So there you have it, short and sweet. I was a little pressed for time so I couldn't go quite into as much depth as I'd like. Having said at the start I wasn't so confident about this week, I actually now think I might be in with a good shout of pulling off another 10 win showing. Unless of course, I've just cursed myself...... Tomorrow I want to have a look at the Titans, and see if they really can come back from the brink and finish 10-6. And as always, if you enjoy what you're reading and you follow the blog then a) Thank you very much and b) spread the word next time you're at the office water cooler.

Friday, November 20, 2009

I hate the Panthers....

Dolphins 24 @ Panthers 17 : I hate the Panthers!! Earlier in the week I commented that Ricky Williams is probably a better all round back than Ronnie Brown. I think tonight he took a big step towards proving that. I also mentioned when I was making my pick that there was a good chance the Panthers might get too excited about the reasonable success of their passing game last week. And surprise, surprise, here I am, 0-1 to start the week. God damn it!!! Jake Delhomme threw 42 passes and completed just 19. Why? For the love of god why are they so desperate to give him the ball and let him throw games (literally) away? You have DeAngelo Williams in the backfield. Let me reiterate that. You have DeAngelo Williams in the backfield. He got just 13 carries, which he managed to convert into 122 yards. This guy needs more touches. And yeah, I know they have Steve Smith on the outside. When he gets the ball he's great. Trouble is he only catches around 50-60% of the passes thrown his way. I can't remember the last time Williams muffed a hand off. If DeAngelo was playing somewhere else, say Pittsburgh or Baltimore, the guy would be chasing Chris Johnson for total rushing yardage. Anyway, a good (and important) win for the Dolphins. 0-1 for me this week. I hate the Panthers.... But I'm not finished completely with this game. I wanna give some extra credit: Davone Bess (Dolphins) -- His stats weren't great for the game, but he made some great catches and worked really hard to get open for his young and inexperienced QB. That's great team play. Bess is a trooper. Lex Hilliard (Dolphins) -- Who? Rookie RB had 4 carries for 24 yards. He ran hard on those carries and will likely get the first bite at sharing the workload with Ricky Williams for the rest of the season. Keep an eye out for this one. DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart (Panthers) -- How tempted they must be to run over Jake Delhommes foot in the parking lot. "Oops, sorry dude, the parking brake just slipped off..." I hate the Panthers.

Thursday, November 19, 2009

Options to think over in week 11

It's Wednesday night, which can only mean one thing. It's time to make a pick for Thursday Night Football!!!! Dolphins @ Panthers : An interesting match up this week. Both these teams conspire on a regular basis to do me out of a pick. I wouldn't be surprised if this goes all the way to, and through, overtime, just to annoy me. So, two questions. 1) Which Dolphins team will show up this week? 2) Which Panthers team will show up this week? I ask only because it could make all the difference. It's been something like 3 weeks now since Jake Delhomme threw a pick. Steve Smith is starting to make waves again in the passing game. They're getting Muhsin Muhammad involved as well (proving the old guys can still get it done for you). That's great, right until the point they decide that's how to win games. The fact is that their passing attack has come along in leaps and bounds lately because teams are stacking against the run, giving Delhomme easy reads and one on one match ups on the outside. On the flip side we have the Dolphins and their young QB Chad Henne. They too work best by running the rock and forcing teams to stack up against the run, giving Henne much easier coverage reads. It's going to be a battle of nerves on Thursday. Who can stick with the run game the longest? Who can resist the temptation to try and emulate the Patriots with 5 receiver sets? But don't discount Miami's joker card; the Wildcat. Even without Ronnie Brown, the threat of Pat White and Ricky Williams is still big. They role that out for a crucial 4th down or in the Redzone and it could make all the difference. Still, I think the Panthers are playing the better football lately, they've found a groove, and they win this game. Panthers win. And in case I hadn't mentioned it before, I hate them Panthers..... And speaking of Wildcats and Pat White etc, let's talk Option football. So far two teams to my knowledge have had a proper go at it this season; The Miami Dolphins & the Tennessee Titans. Both have found some success (love the Titans running a reverse into an option play against the Bills). But for so long the NFL has quashed the option and people have been adamant that it wouldn't work, so lets look at some of the arguments for and against it: "Defenses are too fast" -- As Judge Judy might say, "Ah Baloney!!". Yeah defenses are typically faster at this level, but hey, so are running backs and wide receivers. This argument is the most common and poorest of them all. I don't care if you've got Usain Bolt at DE. The whole point of an option play is to block everyone except your DE, no matter how fast he is, and then make him chose. Does he go for the QB? Then pitch it. Does he take the pitch man? Then keep it. No matter how quick he is, he has to make a choice. He has to go for either A or B. Whichever one he chooses, you do the opposite. He can be fast as lightning, but he's still gonna end up chasing the play. "I don't want my $10 million a year QB getting hit" -- This one is more troublesome. You pay a guy big money, you can't expose him to so much danger. It's not that he can't take it, but simply a case that if he breaks his hand or twists his ankle running an option play, there goes your offense. The only solution is to roll out the backup, which presents two problems; a) you're indicating that an option play might be about to come up & b) there's a reason this guy is your backup. The big talk for example in Philadelphia has been that when Michael Vick comes onto the field, you're disrupting your normal offense. I think the point has some validity. And how long before defenses start taking away the pitch man (typically a RB) as a matter of course and saying "yes Mr. QB, let's see how well you can run....." "It's too easy to defend" -- Yeah, right. Just like all those power run plays that get busted for big yards and the deep passing plays that are gobbled up because they're so 'easy' to defend. The option is just like most other plays in football. It's an exchange between two players. There are different ways of blocking it. There are different formations it can be run from. There are ways to give the ball to people who wouldn't normally make the exchange. For every counter there is a counter-counter. Paul Johnson has been quite adept in his career as a College coach at finding ways to overcome the anti-option defenses. It's just a matter of application, elbow grease and a bit of creative thinking. "It's just a trick play" -- Only if you practice it just once or twice a week and use it even less. If you commit practice time to it, as the Dolphins have with the Wildcat, and you commit to using it every game for at least a few plays, then it becomes a solid tool in your offense. It becomes no more a trick play than any other play that you run just two or three times a game. And it still has the advantage of being a little unusual. Most NFL offenses run the same 5 or 6 run plays as everyone else. The same plays that everyone has run for 30 or more years. You have the off tackle run, the toss sweep, the dive, the draw, the trap, & the stretch/zone run, to name a few (almost all). The blocking schemes are different and they're run from different formations, but that's pretty much it, the staple run game of most NFL teams. The option is something you don't see an awful lot, thus it has a surprise element to it. Well, that concludes my little option discussion for now, maybe we'll pick it up again another day. I think now might be a good time to share the love and dish out some mid-week extra credit: Chad Ochocinco (Bengals) -- When questioned by reporters about new team mate Larry Johnson, Ochocinco swept aside any talk about the guys off field issues. He emphasised that Johnson is another weapon in an already potent offense and stressed that he was happy with anyone who made the team stronger and could help take them forward. That's a top draw play right there. I'm not sure whether Chad is considered a locker room leader in Cincinnati, but certainly his comments always draw attention and must stick in the back of players minds. This was an excellent way to show support for his new team mate and to help convince the rest of the roster that it's a good move, one that can only help them in the long run. Whether or not it was a good move remains to be seen. Props to Chad, one of the funniest and most talented players on the field today. Tomorrow night I'll round up the Dolphins @ Panthers, and then on Friday it's time to let loose and make all the rest of my Week 11 NFL picks.

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

More Belichick

I was just reading on another blog where the author, with absolutely no hint of shame, told his readers that some people still wont believe something is true when you present them with evidence. This is of course, referring still to the infamous "4th & 2" decision made by Bill Belichick. And the reason I say he has no shame is because yes, if you have evidence, that's one thing. But the author and his stat hungry friends are adamant that the stats and percentages etc all made Belichicks decision the best option. They are still churning out stats that 'since 2001...' blah, blah. Honestly, who gives a crap what the Patriots did in 2001. Did they have Welker, Moss, Watson, Faulk and the poor unfortunate who's name escapes me on the field in 2001? Nope. So it matters not. I wanna know how the Pats have got on this year, with these personnel, under this scheme, with their current co-ordinator. The answer was a 50% 4th down conversion ratio, not 60% or even the ridiculous 90% that I heard yesterday (the speaker of that quote shall remain nameless to hide his embarassment). And the big thing that bugs me most of all about the Belichick lovers? They keep saying he made the right choice blah, blah, etc, etc. Question: Did the Pats make it? Nope. With the benefit of hindsight, we know it was wrong. With the benefit of years of watching football and understanding the game, we all knew at the time it was wrong. This whole thing is starting to wind me up big time. It was a dumb decision. Belichick will make a mental note and he'll probably never make an identical mistake again. People will talk about odds and all that rubbish for years, and they'll keep making dumb choices like Belichick. If stats are so great, why aren't there 32 number crunchers in charge of NFL teams? Why aren't they winning back to back to back, BCS titles? Yeah, exactly.... You can check out the article that drew my ire here: http://smartfootball.com/

Random thoughts for the day

Ok so I'm gonna take the chance to share some random musings from around the NFL, the web, and anywhere else I can dig up something of note. -- I still think Belichick made the wrong the call, but it was much closer than I previously imagined. I've seen some film of the play from a high angle and what is clear is that Brady blew it. His O-line was using slide protection to the right, so at the snap everyone moves right and takes the man either head up or in the gap to their right. Normally in the shotgun you would have a back next to you and that guy would go left and take the free rusher (Dwight Freeney), but because this was an empty set, there was no-one picking him up. Brady had man coverage across the board. In this case, and I'm sure Belichick will have made the point in practice, you're looking for Wes Welker out of the slot. I don't care even if you had Randy Moss lined up against a nose tackle, you're still looking for Welker. He's your underneath guy, your possession guy, the guy with the safest hands. It's 4th & 2 with the game on the line, you go to your best player. That's Welker. Welker actually gets an inside release on his guy and is coming open behind the blitz. That's where the ball should have gone. That's where Belichick will be telling Brady he should have gone. That's where Brady will go next time. And the Pats WILL beat the Colts if they meet again. -- It's been probably about one week since I pointed out Ladell Betts and said he would go on to have a big game for the Redskins. Suddenly the media is all over Ladell Betts (in an understated way), with analysts picking him as their proverbial "dark horse" or "penny stock". This, after he posted a 100 yard rushing game last week and showed he was just as good as Clinton Portis. Better late than never guys I suppose. With that one out of the way, keep an eye out for rookie Rashad Jennings of the Jacksonville Jaguars. If he gets the chance to carry the load and give Jones-Drew a rest sometime, expect him to come flying out of the gates. Then a few days later wait for other analysts to start picking him as their 'dark horse', 'penny stock' etc, etc. -- Larry Johnson is headed to Cincinnati everyone! Let's not get mistaken here, Benson is still the man in Bengal land. But as the inclement weather closes in on the North American continent, look for the Bengals to lean a bit more on their run game, possibly including Johnson. And don't be surprised if he does pretty well. The Bengals have a tough O-line that is just dominating people right now. -- Brian Westbrook is possibly done for the season. This is just about the best news (in a really morbid and unfortunate way) that Eagles fans could hope for. Enter now LeSean 'Shady' McCoy and FB Leonard Weaver. McCoy has already shown that he brings big play potential to the Eagles rushing attack and Weaver is the power back that the Eagles desperately need in short yardage and goal line situations. This could spark an offensive riot for the Eagles. But then again, the way they call plays on offense, it could just be another season of missed opportunities. -- The Bills have sacked head coach Dick Jauron. Shame they've still got all the other pieces of their team in place really. I feel sorry for Jauron. By all accounts he's a good coach who knows his football and is a great guy. Unfortunately he just hasn't shown the required skills to bring together a team of players in a small market and get all the right pieces slotted in. There is optimism he will find a co-ordinators job somewhere else in the near future. As for the Bills, they have some issues. Trading away star LT Jason Peters in a league where star LTs are rare was not the best start. I'm also increasingly more concerned with the T.O. deal. Not because I don't like T.O., I do, but because his arrival has retarded the progress of young receivers, like James Hardy, and is taking receptions away from their true star receiver Lee Evans, the guy that they need to get the ball to more. And to cap it all, despite being one of the most northerly franchises and playing in the AFC East, they still don't have any run game to speak of. That's fine if you have Brady and the like, but when your QB is Trent Edwards, you need help. -- Ok, while we're talking about future nuggets of gold, remember the name Brit Miller. He's a FB for the 49'ers, a rookie, who can block and catch. He gets good yards after the catch and would be a perfect fit in any West Coast Offense. May take a year or two to see some regular action, but if he does then watch out.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

4th and 2

It seems everyone else on the planet has voiced their opinion in the argument over whether Bill Belichick made the right choice going for it on that now infamous 4th down on Sunday Night, so I might as well have a crack to. First of all, I don't want to hear about statistics or percentages. All too often I think people try and break down the game of football into percentages and chances of xyz happening, that it's all about mathematics, without realising that their are human beings involved (and not to mention the weather). Football is nothing like flipping a coin or spinning a roulette wheel. There are a ton of variables to consider. Take for example the stat that I keep seeing people batting around. Every football mathematician (for want of a better word) keeps repeating the same percentage: that the Pats had a 65% shot of making it on first down. Really? Because looking at the numbers, prior to this 4th down attempt the Pats had completed just 5 of 10 on 4th down attempts. Now, I'm no expert on numbers, but I'm pretty bloody sure that equals 50%, not 65%. And that's for all fourth downs, even ones that were just inches. What are their stats at going 4th and 2? And then I keep hearing about the percentage chances of stopping the Colts etc and I cant help but think "hang on a second, what about the Colts chances of stopping the Pats on 4th"? Are we to assume that it only matters how successful the Pats have been in the past at getting the first down? Don't certain defenses have better chances of stopping teams than others? Or are you really going to sit there and argue that the Cleveland Browns are just as good at making stops on 4th down as the Pittsburgh Steelers? (In case you're wondering the Steelers now have an 80% success rate against 4th down attempts, while the Browns have just a 46% success rate, tied with the Colts who've now made 5 stops on 11 attempts). But I digress. First of all, something very important must be understood about this decision. If that choice had been made by say, Norv Turner or Tom Cable, they would probably be unemployed right now. It's Belichick though, which is the only reason so many people are sticking up for him. If it was Mangini, everyone in the world would be ridiculing him (and rightly so). Secondly, why, for the love of god, didn't the Pats run the ball on the third down? I know the old argument, that Welker is one of their best players etc and you think he can do it blah, blah. But it was 2 yards. Two. Give the ball to Kevin Faulk. You're a pass first team that everyone knows will try and throw it. So don't. Line up with 4 guys wide and run the ball two measly yards for the win. If you don't get it, it doesn't matter. You let the clock run to the two minute warning. Now anything that happens afterwards is reviewable from the booth. For example, if you now tried to throw for the 4th down and the refs incorrectly marked the spot...... Third, why call out your punt team, then recall them, then burn a timeout. If you're gonna punt, punt. If you're gonna go for it, go for it. If you're not sure, punt. Clock management here was terrible, and that's really unlike the Pats. And don't give me any of that "they weren't sure what play to go with" nonsense. Belichick is a student of the Bill Walsh method of coaching. He and his team will have practiced 4th and 2 before. He and his team would know exactly what play they were gonna run (your very best short yardage play). It was just poor coaching. Fourth, I found a beautiful analogy while I was reading comments that people had made about this very topic on another site. I present it here in full for you: "State of mind plays a role. If I bet you $100 that you couldn’t throw an egg 12″ in the air and catch it, would you take the bet? What if the bet was $10 million? What if you lost, your arm would be amputated? Or you were executed? In all scenarios, it’s throwing an egg 12″ in the air and catching it. Do you still think the success rates are the same?" In short, do you think Faulk bobbling the ball would have happened if it had been on the Colts 29 yard line and not the Pats? Fifth and finally, let's look at what happens if you fail to make it versus punting the ball. By all estimations, if the Pats punt the Colts would have started on about their own 30, there or there abouts. Obviously Peyton Manning is going to have a much easier time scoring from 29 yards than from 70. But there are two factors we really need to consider that make the choice of going for it on 4th down a bad move: 1) You've basically just said to your D, "Punt? Are you guys f***ing kidding me?! I'd rather ask my offense to try and go for it on 4th and lose the game if we fail, than trust you guys to stop Manning going 70 yards!" 2) Yes Manning put together two drives in the 70+ range in that quarter, but he also threw a pick in between those two drives. Manning is good, but with only around two minutes left in the half he can't use the run game at any point, he really has to pass to win. And with Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon dropping balls all over the shop, that's a chance I'd be willing to take. Let's not forget that the Colts had been far from stellar in this game. The only reason they scored on their previous drive was really the terrible pass interference call that put them in range. Yeah I know Manning is good, but on this day I think the Pats would have made the stop. I think Belichick made a horrible choice. And I think no amount of number crunching can take that away. Even if he'd made it, I still would have put it down as a bad choice. Ultimately it cost the Patriots the game, and could come back to haunt them in January.

Monday night round up

Ok so It's time to check out my final pick from week 10: Ravens 16 @ Browns 0 : I just threw up a little on the carpet. I'm not ill & I'm not drunk (unfortunately). No, I've just been watching highlights that involved the Browns. I said last week that it doesn't matter if you use Derek Anderson or Brady Quinn, because the Browns receivers can't catch. What a surprise, Quinn goes 13/31 for 99 yards and 2 INTs. That's just repugnent. If I was a Browns fan I'd be disgusted. And I'd want Head Coach Eric Mangini's head. Mid-season coaching changes rarely turn out well, but in this case it can only get worse if Mangini stays. Fire the guy and make Rob Ryan the temporary coach. But to be honest, the team that came out of this worse off is probably the Ravens. Their only offensive TD came because the Browns messed up their substitution. They got a TD on a pick and then a field goal to round it off. If that's all they can manage against the Browns, then they have problems. Big problems. Still, that win takes me to 11-4 for the week, 37-17 so far after 4 weeks of this. Time I think now, for some extra credit: Michael Turner (Falcons) -- Turned 9 carries into 111 yards. His ball security is solid. Best running back in the league right now. Jonathan Stewart (Panthers) -- Is supposed to be the slow and powerful one of the two Panthers RBs. On his touchdown run, he was gaining separation on the defenders. Channing Crowder (Dolphins) -- Likes to talk the talk, but can also walk the walk. 9 tackles and an interception against the Buccaneers. Ricky Williams (Dolphins) -- Picked up the slack after Ronnie Brown went down injured with 20 carries for 102 yards. Josh Freeman (Buccaneers) -- Nice throws and showed a physical side to his game running with the ball. Kellen Winslow II (Buccaneers) -- Great hands, great strength. I love watching this guy. Breet Favre (Vikings) -- Still the king of the QB position. Sidney Rice (Vikings) -- 7 catches, 201 yards. Just read that again. Yeah, he's good. Adrian Peterson (Vikings) -- Speed, agility, strength, determination. If he could just sort out his ball handling issues he'd unquestionably be the best football player in the NFL right now. Maurice Jones-Drew (Jaguars) -- Can't say enough about his heads up play at the end of the game. The guy is an all round beast. Mark Sanchez (Jets) -- Has somehow convinced the press and his coaching staff that he's a lot better than he really is. Maybe this should got to his agent? Jonathan Joseph & Leon Hall (Bengals) -- Make the list for the second week in a row as a pair. Along with the rest of the Bengals secondary they basically shut down one of the best passing attacks in the league right now. That's damn impressive. Steven Jackson (Rams) -- 26 carries, 131 yards and a TD. This guy makes the Rams look a hell of a lot better than they really are. Would probably have a Superbowl ring by now if he was playing anywhere else. Vince Young (Titans) -- Over 200 yards and a TD throwing, running the option and making blocks for Chris Johnson. Someone wants to keep their starting job real bad. I really like Vince Youngs attitude. Fred Jackson (Bills) -- Did nothing special running the ball, but that TD pass on a wildcat play was pinpoint. This guy should be the starting QB. He couldn't do any worse down in Buffalo. Terrell Owens (Bills) -- 3 catches, 85 yards. The guy still has it, even if the Bills refuse to throw him the ball. Chris Johnson (Titans) -- Over a 100 yards rushing and then another 100 receiving. This guy is the reason why the Titans were so good last year. Todd Yoder (Redskins) -- Taking a break from his Star Wars obligations to fill in for the injured Chris Cooley. Caught a TD pass. He's one to maybe keep an eye on as he finds his slot in this offense. Brian Dawkins (Broncos) -- 12 tackles + 2 assists. Great Player. JaMarcus Russell (Raiders) -- What? 8 completions out of 23 attempts is pretty good by his standards.... Kirk Morrison (Raiders) -- Who? 10 tackles and a forced fumble, that's who. Chris 'Beanie' Wells (Cardinals) -- When you're a running back that hits and knocks over opposition linebackers, you deserve all the credit you get. Antrel Rolle (Cardinals) -- 9 tackles and 1 INT, came out of the shadow of Adrian Wilson a little in this game. Charles Woodson (Packers) -- 8 tackles, 1 assist, 1 sack, 1 interception, 2 forced fumbles, and a partridge in a pear tree. Donovan McNabb (Eagles) -- 450 yards passing exactly. Even with 2 TD's tagged on they still couldn't win the game. LaDanian Tomlinson (Chargers) -- 24 carries, 96 yards. It's nothing special. But it's a warning shot. Listening to Tomlinson's comments about his newly pregnant wife and the way he talks about his game, I think he's getting ready to lower his pads and start being the old LT again. Kevin Faulk (Patriots) -- He may be 33 years old but he spanked team mate Laurence Maroney for rushing this week. Chad Simspon (Colts) -- Made a case for replacing Joseph Addai. Sebastian Vollmer (Patriots) -- The reason Dwight Freeney recorded no tackles, no assists, no sacks, nothing. Dominated the Colts pass rusher.

Monday, November 16, 2009

NFL week 10 round up

Ok, Sunday is done and dusted, it's time to look back at how my picks have worked out so far this week. Obviously I've already covered the Bears @ 49'ers earlier in the week, which puts me at 1-0 to start with 13 games to look at today. Lets get cracking: Falcons 19 @ Panthers 28 : I don't know if anyone has caught on yet, but I hate the Panthers. Every week, no matter which way I pick their game, they'll always do something to mess it up and cost me. This week they ran the football well and only took passes at choice moments. Just as they did last season. Just as they should have been doing this season. To cap it all, Falcons RB Michael Turner racks up 111 yds off just 9 carries... then promptly gets injured, just to make sure the Panthers get the win. Curses. 1-1 Buccaneers 23 @ Dolphins 25 : The big news as far as Miami is concerned is the loss of Ronnie Brown. Luckily for them they handily have another RB who is just as good, if not a little better, in Ricky Williams. If Brown is out for any extended period of time, expect Miami to drop the traditional 'Wildcat' in favour of the option type plays they've been running with Pat White/Ricky Williams. Tampa nearly clawed their way back into this one and the improvement they've shown on offense lately will set them in good stead. Josh Freeman showed some nice touch on his passes. 2-1 Lions 10 @ Vikings 27 : Don't be fooled by the scoreline. Adrian Peterson had 133 yards & 2 TDs rushing off just 18 carries and Favre went 20/29 for 344 yards and a TD. Sidney Rice caught just 7 passes but notched up 201 yds. Detroit continues to struggle, and as we head into the dark days of winter with it's unco-operative weather, 51 pass attempts by a rookie QB are not going to reap success. 3-1 Jaguars 24 @ Jets 22 : Adrian Peterson may be fast and probably one of the most determined RB's in the NFL right now, but he's not the best. His ball handling is too dodgy. So who might take that accolade as best back? Maurice Jones-Drew has a big time shot at that. His production in this game doesn't immediately jump off the page; 24 carries, 123 yards and 1 TD. But he showed his all round game today as time ticked away at the end of the game, by taking a knee just shy of the endzone when the Touchdown was there for the taking. The Jags put away the field goal and that was that. Great play. But the Jets hardly did themselves any favours. They will insist on trying to get Sanchez to make big plays through the air, despite a first class ground game. This time it cost them two picks. 4-1 Bengals 18 @ Steelers 12 : According to the NFL.com recap on this game, online fans have rated it's memorableness (is that even a word?) as 75/100. There's either a lot of comedians living in the two cities, or someones fingers slipped. 8 field goals between them, the only touchdown coming on a 96 yd kickoff return by Bengals RB Bernard Scott. With Cedric Benson out the Bengals turned to Scott to power their running game and the inevitable happened; The Steelers shut down the Bengals run, while the Bengals shut down the Steelers passing. This is a big win for the Bengals who now move to 7-2 and top their division. The biggest blow the Steelers suffered here was safety Troy Polamalu tweaking his knee injury again. I imagine they're keeping their fingers crossed he'll recover quickly. 5-1 Saints 28 @ Rams 23 : Earlier I said I hate the Panthers. I think I hate the Saints even more. Actually, that's not true, I hate the fact they keep winning. This week I'll let it pass because I picked them in this game. But I just know that for the next week I'm going to have to listen to more endless bile about how great the Saints are and how masterful they are and how everyone thinks they're a lock for the Superbowl. Let's look at the facts here. They beat the Rams, a terrible side, by just 5 points. And even then, watching replays of Reggie Bush's second TD it's debatable whether he got the ball in before his leg touched the ground. I just know that the Saints are gonna play a solid team down the stretch (New England in a few weeks) and bomb. Still, can't complain, 6-1. Bills 17 @ Titans 41 : Chris Johnson is a beast, posting over 100 yards rushing and another 100 receiving. I thought it was interesting to see Vince Young running option football, mainly as I said last week about Miami, because for years we've been adamantly told by analysts that NFL defenses are too quick for the option to work. Yeah, right. It was also funny and refreshing to see a QB blocking. And by blocking I mean properly lowering the shoulder and hitting someone. Nice. The Titans secondary also looks like it's old self again. Could they go 10-6? No, surely not...... 7-1. Broncos 17 @ Redskins 27 : Having bigged up the 'Skins secondary so much this week it was amusing to watch them get completely burnt as they left Brandon Marshall (only the Broncos best WR) open and uncovered down the field twice. But football is a funny old game and just before half time Kyle Orton went down injured. Enter Chris Simms from stage left, who threw 13 passes and completed just 3 for 13 yards and 1 INT. At least Knowshon Moreno got things going on the ground, falling (literally) just three yards shy of a 100 yard day. And without Clinton Portis in the line up, Washington's rushing attack fell on the shoulders of Ladell Betts whose running style I admired last week. He carried the ball 26 times and notched up 114 yards. Go me. 8-1. Chiefs 16 @ Raiders 10 : Another RB that I had an eye on this week was Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles. 18 carries, 103 yards, 1 TD. Ahhh I'm good! But to be fair, it's against the Raiders, so take it with a pinch of salt. Nice to see JaMarcus Russell completing just 9/24 as usual. One day the Raiders will realise that he's a waste of roster space and dump him. Question is, who'd be stupid enough to pick him up? (Browns. I'm not kidding....) 9-1. Seahawks 20 @ Cardinals 31 : So you're ahead by 14, time to break out the run game a little yeah? Not if you're Seattle. 52, I say 52, passes by Hasselbeck. Credit to Justin Forsett though. On his meager pickings of just 17 carries he clocked 123 yards and a TD. Sadly the Cardinals running game is just finding itself of late and produced 2 touchdowns, in addition to two more through the air. I have to hold my hands up on this one, taking the Seahawks was stupid. 9-2. Cowboys 7 @ Packers 17 : Would you believe it? Them ****ing Packers just had to go and fix all their problems at once against a team that's about to go on a downward slide. Someone obviously tapped Aaron Rodgers on the shoulder mid week and said "you do realise on a 5 step drop, you have to throw after the 5th step?" "Oh really?! Thanks! Now I understand why I've been hit more times Mike Tyson!" And sure enough, Rodgers only got sacked 4 times! Which for him at least, is progress. Meanwhile, every week Dallas continues to forget just a little bit more about their potentially excellent rushing attack. And Tony Romo forgets that he's the QB and thus the leader of the offense, not whoever is the latest person to be crying in the media about not getting enough throws (*cough* Roy Williams). As a result, Romo isn't looking for his primary play maker Miles Austin anywhere near enough, and Jason Witten has seen his production drop as well. It's the same old problems in Dallas. And it's not helped when the Packers figure out that switching from a 4-3 defense to 3-4 defense is mainly done to help you bring more unpredictable 5 man blitzes. As a consequence, I'm now 9-3. I think I hate Dallas as well now. Eagles 23 @ Chargers 31 : But not as much as I hate the Eagles. Tomlinson remembered how to run just as the Eagles pass rush forgot how to sack. Classic. McNabb must be going nuts. 35/55 for 450 yards and 2 TDs and he still lost. Brian Westbrook must be going nuts that he only got 6 carries. LeSean McCoy must be going nuts because he's proved he's better than Westbrook and he only got 3 carries. Leonard Weaver must be going nuts because he's pretty darn good himself and he only got 2 carries. Eagles fans must be going nuts that their team combined for just 13 rushing attempts. And finally, Norv Turner must be going nuts because it takes his team half the season to get into stride, despite having the easiest, most common sense and most legible playbook in the NFL (I've seen one of his Washington playbooks. Apparently little has changed). 9-4. Patriots 34 @ Colts 35 : I sat down with a cup of coffee this week and prepared myself for what was being billed as the 'Rivalry of the Decade'. Sadly the game lacked any real animosity, emotion or conflict. What it didn't lack for though was some great football. I can honestly say this is one of the best games I've seen in a long time, if not ever. The tight scoreline tells you everything you need to know. But it has to be said, even though I picked the Colts, they were extremely lucky. With just over two minutes remaining the Patriots went for it on 4th and 2, up by 6 on their own 28. And got stopped. There was a case for challenging the play, but Bellichick was worried about burning his only remaining timeout. And that was crucial. They turned the ball over and the Colts drove to the endzone, scoring on a pass to Reggie Wayne, burning all but 13 seconds off the clock on the way. It's stunning that the Patriots managed to burn timeouts so ineffectually in the second half. And it cost them. In a typically high flying game, Brady threw 29/42 for 375 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT. Manning went toe to toe with his opposite number throwing 28/44 for 327 yards, 4 TD's and 2 INT's. And to be honest, it could have been comfortable if the Colts rookie wideouts hadn't dropped so many passes. It was no surprise that for the final throw Manning went back to Reggie Wayne (10 catches, 126 yards, 2 TD's), who was his most (read: only) reliable receiver, with Dallas Clark drawing heavy coverage. The big surprise for the Colts was on defense, as Dwight Freeney licked his chops at the thought of facing rookie LT Sebastian Vollmer..... only to get dominated by the German native pretty much single handed all through the game. Though Robert Mathis stepped up a few times, the Colts badly need to find new ways to bring pressure and also need to find a run game, though Chad Simspon looked sprightly on his 4 carries (and Donald Brown was woeful on his 4). The Patriots just need to keep being themselves. They really were the better team on the day and were incredibly unfortunate not to win this one. I can see a re-match coming in January. 10-4 So that's me done for the weekend. Tomorrow night the Ravens travel across to Cleveland for a Monday Night clash, in which I'm backing the Ravens. Might as well call it 11-4 for the week then. That's more like it. That takes me to 37-17 over the 4 weeks I've been picking. Not bad. Still annoyed that some slipped through my fingers though. Anyway, tomorrow I'll recap the Ravens/Browns game (Might as well do it now. The Ravens won by over 30 points and Ed Reed had a pick 6) and I'll also be dishing out my extra credit for week 10. And as always if you enjoy the blog (you know you do) feel free to tell as many people as humanly possible about it.

Sunday, November 15, 2009

Rushing for a Great Defense

As a 49'ers fan, I'm always interested when the name Josh Morgan pops up. By all accounts, the 2nd year wide out has excelled in training and could have a good future ahead of him. Which is why I was a little annoyed that Crabtree waltzed straight in after his holdout and took the starting job from Morgan. Yes Crabtree is good, but I don't like the message it sends to the team. Well, now Morgan gets a shot again as Issac Bruce has suffered an ankle injury, which is why he missed Thursdays game against the Bears and now Morgan has been promoted to a starting job. I think this can only be a good thing for the 49'ers. Now that's not a knock on Bruce. I still think he's a good player. But the trouble is the QB's in San Fran' dont seem too keen on passing to the guy. This means Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree get all the attention, and consequently, all the coverage. Hopefully Morgans appearance will balance the receiving corps out and create opportunities for the other guys. But the fact that I'm talking about this at all makes me very surprised. When Mike Singletary was announced as head coach, it was made reasonably clear that he was looking to run the football and play great defense. When he hired Offensive Co-ordinator Jimmy Raye from the Jets (where he was a running backs coach) it was made very obvious that the 49'ers were going to run the ball and play great defense. And yet this year, it's been pass happy all the way. Now, that's worked ok, it's scored touchdowns, but it does kind of smack me a little of stupidity by not using the best offensive asset; pro bowl caliber RB Frank Gore. But what's more intriguing for me right now is the phrase that I used twice above; "... run the football and play great defense." What is is about running the football so much that intrinsically lends itself to great defense, or vice versa? Well I'll tell you what, I've got some spare time so we'll have a look and see shall we? The draft: To throw the football a lot and be a pass orientated offense you need three things: 1) An intelligent and quick thinking QB who can read coverages, make the right decisions, and throw the full range of passes. 2) A big left tackle, with quick feet and great pass protection technique. 3) A standout WR with great hands, speed, and route technique. To get those elements you're going to need to pick high in the draft (usually) or trade high picks for quality talent. This is especially true for the left tackle, as there's not many big guys with sufficiently nimble feet. That means that your defense plays second fiddle. They'll have to wait to get corners, linemen and linebackers, usually resulting in a reduction in quality. Conversely, to run the football a lot you need three different things: 1) A solid RB tandem. Usually one guy who is smaller and quicker, and a larger guy who has more power. There are some backs that can do both (e.g. Maurice Jones-Drew). 2) An offensive line built more for push than fancy footwork. 3) A QB who is good enough to punish defenses for playing consistently with 8 in the box. To get those elements you can pretty much scoop up any two RB's in the draft. Seriously, high picks will probably be better in overall quality, but the gulf in talent is no where near what it is for some other positions. The offensive line requires big guys. Quick feet and technique are still important, but not nearly as much as they are for pass protection. And the QB need not be a stunner. He'll probably be doing a lot of play faking and quick throws, but he's not going to see anywhere near the amount of diverse coverages that a Tom Brady or Peyton Manning would. You can dip lower, much lower, for these players. That leaves your high end draft picks free to go after stellar pass rushers, run stoppers, or shutdown corners. Your defense gets the better end of the talent stick. If you're trading or dipping into free agency, you can spend much more of your salary cap on top defensive guys, now that you're not splashing out high end money for two of the most expensive positions in football (QB & LT). The Clock: So it's game day, you're ready, all your new draft picks have been slotted into place. You look across the field and standing their is one of the best offensive units in the land. They can't wait to hit the field and post gaudy numbers against you. What are you gonna do about it? The simplest answer is, don't give them the ball. Run it, build a drive that chews half a quarter off the clock and then score. By running the football you keep the clock ticking. The more it ticks, the less time there is for the opposition to play offense. Less time = less plays. Less plays = less gains. This is kind of the old argument about statistics. The sheer fact that your opponents don't have a sufficient number of snaps to post 300 yards passing means that your defense will appear statistically superior against the pass compared to some other teams. And without as many snaps, teams tend to lean on their pass game for fear of falling behind. This exposes the QB to sacks and interceptions, with every incompletion boosting the defensive stats further. In addition, your defense gets more time on the sideline when you control the ball, allowing those excellent, if a little overweight, pass rushers to get some much needed rest (and oxygen). The Turnovers: We're talking both offensive and defensive here. Your high round defensive draft picks should be better at creating turnovers. They should force more three and outs, forcing the opposition to punt (essentially a turnover on downs. Of sorts). But more importantly here is how offensive turnovers affect your defense. The reality is, teams generally throw more interceptions than they have lost fumbles. Running the football simply doesn't turnover the ball as much. That means less extra possession's handed to the opposition, which your defense would otherwise have to face. But even more critically here, most fumbles are recovered near the spot of the original fumble. The field position change is usually very little (but not always, fumbles do get returned for touchdowns). When balls are intercepted however, you tend to get much bigger changes in field position and a higher incidence of touchdown returns. And it's the field position that hurts your defense the most. It instantly gives the opposition a shorter field with a better chance of scoring. Again this another stat linked situation. Your defense concedes more touchdowns/field goals in a game than it's really worth. In addition to the three above there are two other factors that I think are important, but these are mainly subjective factors and as such there are no real stats that we can look at to prove or disprove them: The Motivation: A primarily run based offense is not going to produce 5 or 6 touchdowns a game. Not unless the opponent is really bad (*cough* Browns). Therefore I think mentally as a defensive player, you have to appreciate that the offense will not bail you out if you make a mistake. In your mind, you must understand that a lot hinges on your ability to carry out your role effectively. I think this extra motivation helps push defensive players to excel. The Coach: This one is very subjective. But chances are, if you're a very run minded Head coach, you're also a bit more conservative. This is likely to spill into your defense, especially if your the co-ordinator. That means you're unlikely to take some of the big chances that you see aggressive defenses take.... ones which often get exploited for big gains. Your more likely to sit back, stifle the offense, and wait for it to make mistakes of it own, and take only calculated risks at the appropriate moment. You give up less big plays, your defense gives up less points. So there we have it, my take on why running the football and playing great defense are so often linked together. I could be wrong, I could be half right. Use your noggin and make up your own mind.