Thursday, November 19, 2009
Options to think over in week 11
It's Wednesday night, which can only mean one thing. It's time to make a pick for Thursday Night Football!!!!
Dolphins
@
Panthers : An interesting match up this week. Both these teams conspire on a regular basis to do me out of a pick. I wouldn't be surprised if this goes all the way to, and through, overtime, just to annoy me. So, two questions. 1) Which Dolphins team will show up this week? 2) Which Panthers team will show up this week? I ask only because it could make all the difference. It's been something like 3 weeks now since Jake Delhomme threw a pick. Steve Smith is starting to make waves again in the passing game. They're getting Muhsin Muhammad involved as well (proving the old guys can still get it done for you). That's great, right until the point they decide that's how to win games. The fact is that their passing attack has come along in leaps and bounds lately because teams are stacking against the run, giving Delhomme easy reads and one on one match ups on the outside. On the flip side we have the Dolphins and their young QB Chad Henne. They too work best by running the rock and forcing teams to stack up against the run, giving Henne much easier coverage reads. It's going to be a battle of nerves on Thursday. Who can stick with the run game the longest? Who can resist the temptation to try and emulate the Patriots with 5 receiver sets? But don't discount Miami's joker card; the Wildcat. Even without Ronnie Brown, the threat of Pat White and Ricky Williams is still big. They role that out for a crucial 4th down or in the Redzone and it could make all the difference. Still, I think the Panthers are playing the better football lately, they've found a groove, and they win this game. Panthers win.
And in case I hadn't mentioned it before, I hate them Panthers.....
And speaking of Wildcats and Pat White etc, let's talk Option football. So far two teams to my knowledge have had a proper go at it this season; The Miami Dolphins & the Tennessee Titans. Both have found some success (love the Titans running a reverse into an option play against the Bills). But for so long the NFL has quashed the option and people have been adamant that it wouldn't work, so lets look at some of the arguments for and against it:
"Defenses are too fast" -- As Judge Judy might say, "Ah Baloney!!". Yeah defenses are typically faster at this level, but hey, so are running backs and wide receivers. This argument is the most common and poorest of them all. I don't care if you've got Usain Bolt at DE. The whole point of an option play is to block everyone except your DE, no matter how fast he is, and then make him chose. Does he go for the QB? Then pitch it. Does he take the pitch man? Then keep it. No matter how quick he is, he has to make a choice. He has to go for either A or B. Whichever one he chooses, you do the opposite. He can be fast as lightning, but he's still gonna end up chasing the play.
"I don't want my $10 million a year QB getting hit" -- This one is more troublesome. You pay a guy big money, you can't expose him to so much danger. It's not that he can't take it, but simply a case that if he breaks his hand or twists his ankle running an option play, there goes your offense. The only solution is to roll out the backup, which presents two problems; a) you're indicating that an option play might be about to come up & b) there's a reason this guy is your backup. The big talk for example in Philadelphia has been that when Michael Vick comes onto the field, you're disrupting your normal offense. I think the point has some validity. And how long before defenses start taking away the pitch man (typically a RB) as a matter of course and saying "yes Mr. QB, let's see how well you can run....."
"It's too easy to defend" -- Yeah, right. Just like all those power run plays that get busted for big yards and the deep passing plays that are gobbled up because they're so 'easy' to defend. The option is just like most other plays in football. It's an exchange between two players. There are different ways of blocking it. There are different formations it can be run from. There are ways to give the ball to people who wouldn't normally make the exchange. For every counter there is a counter-counter. Paul Johnson has been quite adept in his career as a College coach at finding ways to overcome the anti-option defenses. It's just a matter of application, elbow grease and a bit of creative thinking.
"It's just a trick play" -- Only if you practice it just once or twice a week and use it even less. If you commit practice time to it, as the Dolphins have with the Wildcat, and you commit to using it every game for at least a few plays, then it becomes a solid tool in your offense. It becomes no more a trick play than any other play that you run just two or three times a game. And it still has the advantage of being a little unusual. Most NFL offenses run the same 5 or 6 run plays as everyone else. The same plays that everyone has run for 30 or more years. You have the off tackle run, the toss sweep, the dive, the draw, the trap, & the stretch/zone run, to name a few (almost all). The blocking schemes are different and they're run from different formations, but that's pretty much it, the staple run game of most NFL teams. The option is something you don't see an awful lot, thus it has a surprise element to it.
Well, that concludes my little option discussion for now, maybe we'll pick it up again another day. I think now might be a good time to share the love and dish out some mid-week extra credit:
Chad Ochocinco (Bengals) -- When questioned by reporters about new team mate Larry Johnson, Ochocinco swept aside any talk about the guys off field issues. He emphasised that Johnson is another weapon in an already potent offense and stressed that he was happy with anyone who made the team stronger and could help take them forward. That's a top draw play right there. I'm not sure whether Chad is considered a locker room leader in Cincinnati, but certainly his comments always draw attention and must stick in the back of players minds. This was an excellent way to show support for his new team mate and to help convince the rest of the roster that it's a good move, one that can only help them in the long run. Whether or not it was a good move remains to be seen. Props to Chad, one of the funniest and most talented players on the field today.
Tomorrow night I'll round up the Dolphins @ Panthers, and then on Friday it's time to let loose and make all the rest of my Week 11 NFL picks.
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