Sunday, November 15, 2009

Rushing for a Great Defense

As a 49'ers fan, I'm always interested when the name Josh Morgan pops up. By all accounts, the 2nd year wide out has excelled in training and could have a good future ahead of him. Which is why I was a little annoyed that Crabtree waltzed straight in after his holdout and took the starting job from Morgan. Yes Crabtree is good, but I don't like the message it sends to the team. Well, now Morgan gets a shot again as Issac Bruce has suffered an ankle injury, which is why he missed Thursdays game against the Bears and now Morgan has been promoted to a starting job. I think this can only be a good thing for the 49'ers. Now that's not a knock on Bruce. I still think he's a good player. But the trouble is the QB's in San Fran' dont seem too keen on passing to the guy. This means Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree get all the attention, and consequently, all the coverage. Hopefully Morgans appearance will balance the receiving corps out and create opportunities for the other guys. But the fact that I'm talking about this at all makes me very surprised. When Mike Singletary was announced as head coach, it was made reasonably clear that he was looking to run the football and play great defense. When he hired Offensive Co-ordinator Jimmy Raye from the Jets (where he was a running backs coach) it was made very obvious that the 49'ers were going to run the ball and play great defense. And yet this year, it's been pass happy all the way. Now, that's worked ok, it's scored touchdowns, but it does kind of smack me a little of stupidity by not using the best offensive asset; pro bowl caliber RB Frank Gore. But what's more intriguing for me right now is the phrase that I used twice above; "... run the football and play great defense." What is is about running the football so much that intrinsically lends itself to great defense, or vice versa? Well I'll tell you what, I've got some spare time so we'll have a look and see shall we? The draft: To throw the football a lot and be a pass orientated offense you need three things: 1) An intelligent and quick thinking QB who can read coverages, make the right decisions, and throw the full range of passes. 2) A big left tackle, with quick feet and great pass protection technique. 3) A standout WR with great hands, speed, and route technique. To get those elements you're going to need to pick high in the draft (usually) or trade high picks for quality talent. This is especially true for the left tackle, as there's not many big guys with sufficiently nimble feet. That means that your defense plays second fiddle. They'll have to wait to get corners, linemen and linebackers, usually resulting in a reduction in quality. Conversely, to run the football a lot you need three different things: 1) A solid RB tandem. Usually one guy who is smaller and quicker, and a larger guy who has more power. There are some backs that can do both (e.g. Maurice Jones-Drew). 2) An offensive line built more for push than fancy footwork. 3) A QB who is good enough to punish defenses for playing consistently with 8 in the box. To get those elements you can pretty much scoop up any two RB's in the draft. Seriously, high picks will probably be better in overall quality, but the gulf in talent is no where near what it is for some other positions. The offensive line requires big guys. Quick feet and technique are still important, but not nearly as much as they are for pass protection. And the QB need not be a stunner. He'll probably be doing a lot of play faking and quick throws, but he's not going to see anywhere near the amount of diverse coverages that a Tom Brady or Peyton Manning would. You can dip lower, much lower, for these players. That leaves your high end draft picks free to go after stellar pass rushers, run stoppers, or shutdown corners. Your defense gets the better end of the talent stick. If you're trading or dipping into free agency, you can spend much more of your salary cap on top defensive guys, now that you're not splashing out high end money for two of the most expensive positions in football (QB & LT). The Clock: So it's game day, you're ready, all your new draft picks have been slotted into place. You look across the field and standing their is one of the best offensive units in the land. They can't wait to hit the field and post gaudy numbers against you. What are you gonna do about it? The simplest answer is, don't give them the ball. Run it, build a drive that chews half a quarter off the clock and then score. By running the football you keep the clock ticking. The more it ticks, the less time there is for the opposition to play offense. Less time = less plays. Less plays = less gains. This is kind of the old argument about statistics. The sheer fact that your opponents don't have a sufficient number of snaps to post 300 yards passing means that your defense will appear statistically superior against the pass compared to some other teams. And without as many snaps, teams tend to lean on their pass game for fear of falling behind. This exposes the QB to sacks and interceptions, with every incompletion boosting the defensive stats further. In addition, your defense gets more time on the sideline when you control the ball, allowing those excellent, if a little overweight, pass rushers to get some much needed rest (and oxygen). The Turnovers: We're talking both offensive and defensive here. Your high round defensive draft picks should be better at creating turnovers. They should force more three and outs, forcing the opposition to punt (essentially a turnover on downs. Of sorts). But more importantly here is how offensive turnovers affect your defense. The reality is, teams generally throw more interceptions than they have lost fumbles. Running the football simply doesn't turnover the ball as much. That means less extra possession's handed to the opposition, which your defense would otherwise have to face. But even more critically here, most fumbles are recovered near the spot of the original fumble. The field position change is usually very little (but not always, fumbles do get returned for touchdowns). When balls are intercepted however, you tend to get much bigger changes in field position and a higher incidence of touchdown returns. And it's the field position that hurts your defense the most. It instantly gives the opposition a shorter field with a better chance of scoring. Again this another stat linked situation. Your defense concedes more touchdowns/field goals in a game than it's really worth. In addition to the three above there are two other factors that I think are important, but these are mainly subjective factors and as such there are no real stats that we can look at to prove or disprove them: The Motivation: A primarily run based offense is not going to produce 5 or 6 touchdowns a game. Not unless the opponent is really bad (*cough* Browns). Therefore I think mentally as a defensive player, you have to appreciate that the offense will not bail you out if you make a mistake. In your mind, you must understand that a lot hinges on your ability to carry out your role effectively. I think this extra motivation helps push defensive players to excel. The Coach: This one is very subjective. But chances are, if you're a very run minded Head coach, you're also a bit more conservative. This is likely to spill into your defense, especially if your the co-ordinator. That means you're unlikely to take some of the big chances that you see aggressive defenses take.... ones which often get exploited for big gains. Your more likely to sit back, stifle the offense, and wait for it to make mistakes of it own, and take only calculated risks at the appropriate moment. You give up less big plays, your defense gives up less points. So there we have it, my take on why running the football and playing great defense are so often linked together. I could be wrong, I could be half right. Use your noggin and make up your own mind.

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