Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Week 12 Sunday recap

Monday night's game is done, so it must be time for a recap: Green Bay Packers 17 @ Atlanta Falcons 20: - Did we just watch the NFC Championship game in November? (good way to curse both teams) - Aaron Rodgers; 26/35, 344 yards.... 1 TD. The league-wide, season spanning "lots of yards, no points" curse strikes again. Even Green Bay isn't safe. - In a tight game, four fumbles (Green Bay) is not good (especially when you fumble at the goal line on a QB sneak). - Nor is having your QB as your leading rusher with 12 carries for 51 yards. - Matt Ryan; 24/28, 197 yards, 1 TD. Did just enough to win it... - ... thanks in large part to Michael Turner; 23 carries, 110 yards, 1 TD. - Errors at critical moments really hurt Green Bay. Pittsburgh Steelers 19 @ Buffalo Bills 16 (OT): - Maybe I should have kept the faith with the Bills. - On second thoughts, they still lost. - But then again, Steve Johnson fumbled what otherwise would have been a game winning catch in the end zone during overtime, so give credit to the Bills; they pretty much should have beaten the Steelers. - Ryan Fitzpatrick needs a shave. Badly. - Credit to Fitzpatrick though; 23/45, 265 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT. Not bad. - Ben Roethlisberger; 20/33, 246 yards. And he didn't get punched in the face this week. - Rashard Mendenhall; 36 carries, 151 yards, 1 TD. - Can anyone (alive) remember the last time the Bills had five sacks in a game? Anyone? - NT Kyle Williams had two of those, plus 8 tackles. Carolina Panthers 23 @ Cleveland Browns 24: - Question: How did the game end this close? Answer: Browns QB Jake Delhomme. - Delhomme: 24/35, 245 yards, 0 TD's, 2 INT's. - Is Peyton Hillis the most fun footballer to watch in the NFL right now? I think so. - Peyton Hillis; 26 carries, 131 yards, 3 TD's (+ 6 catches for a team leading 63 yards). - The Panthers weren't too shabby themselves on the ground; Jonathan Stewart, 12 carries, 98 yards. Mike Goodson, 14 carries, 55 yards, 1 TD. - The Panthers could have won this; John Kasay missed two field goals, including a last second 42-yarder. - Despite a worse 3rd down conversion rate (Browns; 4/11, 36%. Panthers; 7/15, 46%) the Browns still picked up 26 first downs compared to the Panthers 16. - The Panthers had a 0% red zone conversion rate... because they failed to get into the red zone in the first place. Tennessee Titans 0 @ Houston Texans 20: - When I heard Rusty Smith was going to start for the Titans I automatically thought "Chris Johnson; 30+ carries". - Chris Johnson; 7 carries, 5 yards. Javon Ringer added another 27 on 4 carries. - Rusty Smith; 17/31, 138 yards, 3 INT's. Nice job of protecting a rookie QB there. - Matt Schaub; 25/35, 178 yards, 2 TD's. - Arian Foster; 30 carries, 143 yards. They remember he exists which is a good start. - CB Glover Quin recovered from his nightmare bat down against the Jags with 3 interceptions. - The "fight" between Andre Johnson and Cortland Finnegan was funny as hell. Never in the field of footballing endeavour have two players, spent some much energy, for so little result. Jacksonville Jaguars 20 @ New York Giants 24: - David Garrard; 20/35, 162 yards, 1 INT. - Eli Manning; 14/24, 226 yards, 2 TD's. - The Giants took their sweet time to get into gear and make something happen offensively. - Meanwhile, Maurice Jones Drew was getting going; 23 carries, 113 yards. - Sneaky mention for my Jaguars favourite, RB Rashad Jennings; 7 carries, 53 yards (longest; 19) 1 TD. - Neither of the Giants backs fumbled this time (Brandon Jacobs; 14 carries, 87 yards. Ahmad Bradshaw; 9 carries, 49 yards). - The Giants Defense came up with another 4 sacks. - DE Jason Pierre-Paul came up with 2, forcing 2 fumblers as well. - CB Terrell Thomas had a sack, a forced fumble and an interception. Minnesota Vikings 17 @ Washington Redskins 13: - What a difference a coach makes. - Brett Favre; 15/23, 172 yards. - Donovan McNabb; 21/35, 211 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT (the pick was a huge tip, not his fault really). - A key play in the game was made by Favre in the 4th quarter. Having rolled out on play-action it looked like a deja vu moment of the famous pick from the NFC Championship game last season. Except this time Favre pulled the ball down and ran. Proof that you can teach an old dog new tricks. - With Adrian Peterson injured, Toby Gerhart (watch list) came in to play; 22 carries, 76 yards, 1 TD. - Brandon Banks took a kick off 65 yards to set up a field goal, then later had a 77 yard punt return for a TD... only to have it called back for an illegal block in the back. - Albert Haynesworth got himself a half sack. Miami Dolphins 33 @ Oakland Raiders 17: - No fair! I didn't realise Henne was going to play! - I'm always harping on about sticking to what you do well. On that note, could someone explain to me the Raiders 12 rushing attempts? I mean seriously 12? That's the only good thing the Raiders do on offense. - Chad Henne; 17/30, 307 yards, 2 TD's, 1 INT. - Bruce Gradkowski; 17/32, 252 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT's. - Did someone just suddenly flick a switch on at the Dolphin's facility and discover their long lost running game in a side room? (Ronnie Brown; 24 carries, 85 yards. Ricky Williams; 20 carries, 95 yards, 1 TD). - Raiders WR Jacoby Ford had a hell of game; returning a kick off 101 yards for a TD, taking 4 catches for a team leading 108 yards and a TD, and leading his team in rushing with one carry for 13 yards. - Cameron Wake grabbed yet another sack. Kansas City Chiefs 42 @ Seattle Seahawks 24: - At least someone knows where there strength lies! - Jamaal Charles; 22 carries, 173 yards, 1 TD. - Thomas Jones; 20 carries, 68 yards. - Matt Cassel; 22/32, 233 yards, 4 TD's. - We're finally starting to see the best of Dwayne Bowe; 13 catches, 170 yards, 3 TD's. - The Seahawks look really bad on both sides of the ball. - Matt Hasselbeck; 20/37, 282 yards, 2 TD's, 2 INT's - Normally Ben Obomanu would be celebrating his 5 catches, 159 yards, 1 TD. - Kendrick Lewis (watch list) got himself a pick. - Derrick Johnson had 5 tackles, a sack and a forced fumble... which was recovered by Tamba Hali. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 @ Baltimore Ravens 17: - The Buc's have every reason to be annoyed at a pathetic pass interference penalty that set up the Ravens second TD. - They didn't help themselves though, with Josh Freeman finishing just 17/37 for 162 yards and a TD. - Joe Flacco; 25/35, 289 yards, 2 TD's, 1 INT. - The Buc's had four sacks, including two for rookie Gerald McCoy. Philadelphia Eagles 26 @ Chicago Bears 31: - Michael Vick threw his first interception of the season, finishing the game 29/44 for 333 yards, 2 TD's and that INT. Some of the throws are just breathtaking to watch back. - Jay Cutler was only 14/21 on the day, but for 247 yards and 4 touchdowns with no picks. That's a much, much better display than we've seen recently. - Matt Forte had 14 carries for 117 yards in a rare good show from the Bears O-line. - Both defenses did well, both putting up four sacks (including 2 for Trent Cole of the Eagles and one for Brandon Graham (watch list)). - Julius Peppers and Brian Urlacher are still grabbing all the limelight on the Bears defense, but it's DE Israel Idonije who is quietly making a consistent big impact. - Looks like I'm wrong about the Bears. They're showing they can roll with the big boys. St. Louis Rams 36 @ Denver Broncos 33: - Another week, another big show from rookie Sam Bradford (22/37, 308 yards, 3 TD's). - Steven Jackson also had big part with 29 carries for 72 yards. - After being ripped up in the second quarter the Broncos made their fight back in the fourth. - Kyle Orton; 24/41, 347 yards, 3 TD's. - The Broncos were 1/9 (11%) on third downs. - The Rams could have had more points. Their red zone efficiency was just 2/5 (40%) San Diego Chargers 36 @ Indianapolis Colts 14: - Peyton Manning just didn't look like Peyton Manning; 31/48, 285 yards, 2 TD's, 4 INT's. - The Colts O-line couldn't move anyone and had real trouble keeping Manning clean. - It appeared that the Chargers had a pretty good idea of what the Colts audibles were. - Rookie LB Pat Angerer didn't do too bad for the Colts, leading the team with 7 tackles. - Philip Rivers had a pedestrian game of 19/23 for 185 yards. But it was more than enough thanks to... - ... FB/RB Mike Tolbert taking 26 carries for 103 yards and a touchdown. The two interception returns for touchdowns by Eric Weddle and Kevin Burnett also helped a lot! - The Chargers special teams didn't shoot them in the foot for a change. San Francisco 49ers 27 @ Arizona Cardinals 6: - You know you're bad when the 49ers are running all over you. - And I do mean running all over. I could have driven a Dodge Ram through some of those holes. - Troy Smith was 11/23 for 129 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. - Frank Gore (5 carries, 52 yards) went down with a hip injury, so it fell to Brian Westbrook to carry the load; 23 carries, 136 yards, 1 TD. - "The Golden Mule" Anthony Dixon (watch list); 14 carries, 54 yards, 1 TD. - Derek Anderson was bad; 16/35, 196 yards, 1 INT. - Anderson was really bad. He stared down receivers (which led to a Takeo Spikes pick) and simply didn't see the whole field the way a top tier QB would. - The Cardinals gave their running game a chance. 11 chances to be exact. It didn't help that they conceded 21 first half points. - 26 to 8. Not the final score (obviously) but the number of first downs the respective teams picked up. - 39:01. The 49ers time of possession. So that's your lot, the whole of week 12 now covered. After a 2-1 start on Thursday night I finished 9-7 pick wise for the week. That now takes my season tally to 92-84. At least I'm still above .500. This week I will absolutely 100% do the round up so far of the rookie watch list. Absolutely. 100%. Honest. I promise. I will. Honestly... Have a great day everyone.

Monday, November 29, 2010

Shock and Awe (err, I think I've used that title before?)

I'll be back later today to round up Sunday's action, but for now I just have to sleep and recover from the shock of watching the Colts. I don't know who that team in the the blue was, but they looked chronic. Absolutely chronic and hapless and a variety of other adjectives that you would never use to describe the Colts. Have a great day everyone.

Saturday, November 27, 2010

Week 12 NFL Picks

Phew, finally found the time to sit down at the computer -- undisturbed -- with a coffee in hand and some Week 12 picks to make: Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons: This is basically the hottest match up of the week. The Packers and the Falcons are probably the two teams that are generating the most interest in the NFC when it comes to playoff talk and now, here they are. So in a head to head clash, who wins? Good question. The Falcons have ridden their luck quite a bit this season. Missed field goals, slipping defenders and last second comebacks have been a feature of many of Atlantas wins thus far, but the fact remains that the Falcons have a proven recipe for victory which they rolled out last week; play solid defense, take an early lead, then mix in their running game. The Packers also have their defense to thank this year. Their whole front 7 has been outstanding, and even the back end has held up pretty well, espcially with the emergence of CB Tramon Williams. Meanwhile on offense, Aaron Rodgers has had more time to throw this year and they've coped well with injuries to key players such as RB Ryan Grant and TE Jermichael Finley. All things considered, I like the Packers just a little more in this game. I know Matt Ryan has been exceptional at home in his tenure with the Falcons, but the Packers just bring a more complete team to this game than I think the Falcons have seen before. It'll be tight I imagine, but ultimately Green Bay will take home the W. Packers win. Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills: Credit where credit is due, the Bills have started to look like a competitive football team of late. But credit where credit is due, the Steelers came back in week 11 from a tough loss the week before to stuff a hot rolling Raiders side. I'm still sceptical of the Steelers. I think Roethlisberger -- like Tony Romo of the Cowboys -- can at times be a gift and a curse to his team. But they have a solid running game and they have a great defense. I think Pittsburgh nudges it slightly. Steelers win. Carolina Panthers @ Cleveland Browns: I was ready to give Cleveland this game like a bullet out of a gun. But then I found out something interesting; Jake Delhomme is penciled in to start for Cleveland. Now as bad as the Panthers are, Delhomme has built a reputation in the last 2.5 years or so for being his own teams worst nightmare. Just ask Carolina. The question then is thus; will Delhomme -- who hasn't played for a while now -- implode in the face of his old team mates? I'm tentatively going to suggest he can hold it together just long enough for the Browns to slip through with a win. Tentatively. Very Tentatively. Browns win. Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans: So, the first thing that came into my head when I saw this matchup was "Who will meltdown first; Randy Moss, new Titans starting QB Rusty Smith, or the Texans defense?". There's a strong likelyhood that the Titans will come out with Chris Johnson and try to run their way through Houston, looking to set up some easier play action passes later in the game for Smith. If that happens then I'm cautiously optomistic for the Titans. Their defense excels at rushing the passer, which is handy as Houston has switched back to giving the passing game priority, having seemingly decided that their very good rushing attack is just not sexy enough for TV any more. Therefore, Titans win. Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Giants: When the Jaguars are leading the AFC South, it's probably a good sign that either the NFL's planned parity scheme is working well, or simply that Football is heading towards a universe ending, catastrophic singularity. Thus it falls to the Giants to save the galaxy. Which in short means we're all f***ed. The Giants are many things, but reliable is not one of them. Their best running back Ahmad Bradshaw will be watching from the sidelines to start on Sunday, mainly due to his propensity for finishing great runs by coughing up the ball. In the mean time Eli Manning is struggling lately with a spilt personality syndrome that sees him regularly switch between immitating his brother Peyton... and immitating Jake Delhomme in "that" NFC playoff game. And so once again the Giants are relying on their defense to pull through. At last then a glimmer of hope, because the reality is that the Giants defense -- in particular the defensive line -- is still very good. Not always as good as it should be, but generally sufficient. Where the Giants always have problems is when their offense turns the ball over, but then this is Jacksonville, who despite their win-loss record are hardly the offensive juggernauts of the AFC. So maybe the galaxy is safe for another week? Only time will tell. Giants win. Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Redskins: Childress is gone and now it falls to Leslie Frazier to muster the troops and make something good happen. Being a defensive guy it's a possibility that Frazier will call on Adrian Peterson and the running game to lead the charge. It's not a guarantee, but it is a distinct possibility. That then could spell disaster for a Redskins team that hasn't looked good in a long while. I have no idea how Washington has mustered up the record that it has, but I'm guessing that they wont be extending that record anytime soon. As suspicious as I am of Favre, I have to say Vikings win. Miami Dolphins @ Oakland Raiders: Hmm (one of them). The Raiders were rolling right up until they ran into the steel curtain last week. They will have access to Richard Seymour this week after he escaped with just a fine from the incident involving a tremondously satisfying smack to the face of Ben Roethlisberger. But the problem is deciding who will start at quarterback. Both Jason Campbell and Bruce Gradkowski are available, and I have to say I'm more of a Gradkowski fan than a Campbell fan. Then we have Miami, that other team in the football game. Christ only knows what has happened to the Dolphins. They started so promisingly this season (except at home) and have at times shown flashes of brilliance (Cameron Wake). But the trouble seems to be that more often than not they show flashes of outright, pukingly horrid play. There just doesn't seem to be anything or anyone you can point to and say "that's going to save Miami's season". Sorry Dolphins, but I have to back a Raiders win. Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks: I simple refuse to take the Seahawks in a game against a half decent opponent, especially the way their offensive line has been playing lately, and even more especially given that they're up against a very stout Chiefs defense that is really starting to emerge in multiple areas. If Kansas can keep the ball in the hands of their two quality running backs Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles, while only selectively handing it over to Matt Cassel to throw, then good things will happen. Chiefs win. Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Baltimore Ravens: Now here's a match up that does intrigue me; RB LaGarrette Blount up against LB Ray Lewis. Tough meets tough. But what will probably be more decisive is the clash between Buc's QB Josh Freeman and Ravens safety Ed Reed. Reed has shown time and again he can toy with the minds of some of the best quarterbacks in the league. So how will Freeman fare? There's no guarantee's but I don't think the end result will be pretty. That said, the Buccaneers aren't too shabby on the defensive side themselves. They certainly have the ability to get after the Ravens offense and give them a run for their money. Joe Flacco has -- unlike his fellow draft class QB Matt Ryan -- failed to emerge properly as a consistent winning quarterback who can lead his team to greatness when all the other pieces are faltering. He should in theory have a good time against the likes of the plucky but sometimes mistake prone Cody Grimm, but you just never know with Flacco. All things considered my gut feeling is to go with the Ravens. Which is why I'm taking a Buccaneers win. Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears: Well, I had a theory once that when the New Orleans Saints finally played a tough defense coupled with a half-decent offense, that they would be torn apart. They then recently played the Steelers... and walked it. So now my next theory will face the litmus test; that the Bears are nowhere near where their record says they are. Hopefully the Eagles will expose the upstart Bears for what they truly are. Hopefully Michael Vick will drive up and down the field at will, squashing Chicago under foot like the dull looking mushroom that they are (??). But of course knowing my luck, DeSean Jackson and LeSean McCoy will combine to spill the rock three times, Vick will drop it twice more, and he'll finally throw a pick. But not just one, he'll throw three, all in the first half. All returned for touchdowns. It'll be the freakiest, flukiest victory you've ever seen as the Bears immitate what was for me the waking nightmare that was the 2009 Saints season. Then I'll have to sit and listen next year as people crown the Bears as one of the NFL's "elite" teams, even though we all know that's not the case. So with a lot of desperate hope (please God), I'm saying Eagles win. St. Louis Rams @ Denver Broncos: Ugh. The Rams on the road visiting the Broncos. It's a picking nightmare of the worst kind. A team that never wins on the road, against a team that never wins (not accounting for exaggeration). Simply put, I looked at the rosters and just went with the better overall team, hence Broncos win. San Diego Chargers @ Indianapolis Colts: Hmm (another one of them). The stats tell us something very simple; the Chargers are the best team in football, if not the best team of all time. They lead the NFL (or at least rank highly) in a host of important categories, on both offense and defense. Philip Rivers is on pace for record numbers. The Shawne Merriman-less defense is notching up sacks quicker than Cassanova (get it? How droll). But here is the odd thing; not only does the Chargers win/loss record tell a vastly different story, but they actually play better and win games when they're not out tearing up the record books. When Rivers throws for a bunch of yards, the Chargers tend to lose games because they dont score that many points. When Rivers's numbers are more modest (>200) he seems to throw more touchdowns and the Chargers win games like it was the easiest thing in the world. Something odd then is taking place that defies the laws of logic, football, and current statistical analysis of football. The Chargers are hitting quick strikes through Rivers, lumping in some rushing touchdowns and then just milking the clock on the back of their lead and their defense. But can they rinse and repeat said formula against the Colts? Can you really afford to sit back and say to Peyton Manning "c'mon then, let's see you come back from that 17 point deficit!". Normally the answer would be "no". Sitting on a 17 point lead against Peyton Manning is about as secure as sitting on the fence around the top of the Empire State building. But when you consider the Chargers defense and the fact they've been so prolific in sacks, they might just be able to crack it. Of course, if the rule against illegal pick plays was simply enforced then the Colts would be out of business by now, but I digress. Chargers win. San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals: I love Football. I can happily watch 9-10 hours of damn near back to back football. Then follow that up by watching more football and talking about football. And I love the 49ers. I paid the equivalent of about $120 for a ticket plus about $45 in travel just to watch the 49ers play the freakin' Broncos. But even I couldn't watch this game. Somewhere on Monday Night, there will be hundreds of thousands, dare I say millions of people who will watch this utter, abject excuse for a football game. Of course, having put it down so hard it's almost certain to turn out to be a 45-42 thriller of the most unmissable kind imaginable. I doubt it though. But who to pick? Unfortunately "nobody" is not a valid answer. Somehow then we must wade through the feeble excuse that is the 49ers offense, compare that with the feeble excuse that is the Cardinals defense, and then do the same in reverse. Alternatively I could just flip a coin and say "heads the 49ers win, tails the Cardinals win". It's heads. 49ers win. I'm off now to go and frolick in the early snow, so until Sundays recap, Have a great day everyone.

Friday, November 26, 2010

Turducken is Tasty

Three games down from week 12, so let's take a look: New England 45 @ Detroit Lions 24: Credit to the Lions, they hung in there. At one point they held an 11-point lead. But this is still the Lions we're talking about and so the inevitable softness on the back end came through. The reality is that guys like Wes Welker and Deion Branch will eventually expose any weak links, and in this case a huge one appeared; Alphonso Smith. Smith was what might be described as "epically bad". Watching Branch take him to school was simultaneously hilarious and painful to watch ("Hilariful"? "Painious"?). Branch finished with just 3 catches, but for 113 yards and 2 touchdowns. Tom Brady was 21/27 for 341 yards and 4 TDs. Wes Welker caught 8 of those passes for 90 yards and 2 touchdowns of his own. And to round off the juggernaut, BenJarvus Green-Ellis ran 12 times for 59 yards and 2 TDs. It was -- quite simply -- a dominating performance on offense. On defense, rookie corner Devin McCourty came up with 2 interceptions and LB Jerod Mayo lead the Pat's D with 8 tackles. For the Lions it started with such promise. A touchdown pass by Shaun Hill (27/46, 285 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT's) to Calvin Johnson (4 catches, 81 yards, 1 TD) was followed by a 1 yard TD leap from RB Maurice Morris (9 carries, 55 yards, 2 TD's). But from there the Lions fizzled out. Morris picked up his second TD in the third quarter, but that was no match for the Patriots 5 second half scores. Rookie DT Ndamukong Suh came up with another sack for his season tally, but the rest of the Lions defense just melted away along with Suh as the game wore on. It's a frustrating thing watching the Lions. They make progress slowly and surely, then seem to slide back down again when they hit a great team like the Patriots. Better luck next year? New Orleans Saints 30 @ Dallas Cowboys 27: This is what I was talking about with the Saints last season. They blew a 17 point lead and were dead in the water with 3:03 on the clock. John Kitna hit Roy Williams for a first down. "Just get as far as you can..." Cowboys fans were thinking "... then slide when the defense closes in. For Gods sake Roy, please slide..... ah f**k it!". He opted instead to make a go for the end zone. At around the 10 yard mark, Malcom Jenkins came up from behind and stripped the football away. The Saints now drove the field and Drew Brees found Lance Moore for the touchdown that sealed the game. The Cowboys did get the ball back and put themselves in position for a 59-yard attempt, but the odds are not good from such a distance. Thus the Saints escaped from the jaws of defeat once more thanks to a bone headed play from their opponents. If Williams took a knee and the Cowboys milked that clock before taking a field goal then it would be all done. But yet again the Saints defied the laws of common sense football and slipped through the thinnest of cracks to victory. I hate the Saints. Drew Brees was 23/39 for 352 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Meanwhile all the pre-game hype about the return of Reggie Bush turned out to be just that as Bush caught one pass for 12 yards, ran once for one yard, and fumbled on a punt return that was then recovered by the Cowboys. Instead it was Chris Ivory who made the biggest impact among the backs, taking 7 carries for 38 yards and 2 TD's. For the Cowboys, John Kitna finished 30/42, for 313 yards and 1 INT. On the ground, despite having three players rush for touchdowns, the Dallas run game was decidedly weak. Miles Austins 60 yard scamper for a touchdown on an end around play put him top of the rushing charts. Neither defense covered itself in glory, though Saints DE Will Smith is notable for his sack, forced fumble, and interception. Probably the most interesting stat though is the Cowboys seven fumbles, even though they only lost two. Talk about butter fingers..... Cincinnati Bengals 10 @ New York Jets 26: Bah ha ha ha ha haaa!! That's what I think of this year when I see the Bengals play. It is truly entering the realms of tragic comedy. Carson Palmer was 17/38 for a mere 135 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT's. The ground game faltered, with Cedric Benson gaining just 41 yards (longest; 14) on 18 carries. Even though rookie Carlos Dunlap finally started to pay back his salary with two sacks, the Bengals defense was generally not very good. Which is lucky for the Jets. They're not a bad team, per se. But they're certainly not the Super Bowl team we keep hearing about from Jets fans/Rex Ryan. Mark Sanchez was 16/28 for 166 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. He does not look like a Super Bowl QB right now, which is frustrating in a sense because I've seen Sanchez work some real magic on the field at times. Just... inconsistent. Star of the show? WR Brad Smith, who ran 53 yards for a TD, then later returned a kick off 89 yards for another. Credit to Jets running backs Shonne Greene (18 carries, 70 yards) and LaDanian Tomlinson (13 carries, 49 yards) for playing their part in the win. But it was really all about the Bengals. Their lack of O-line play. The terrible play at quarterback from Carson Palmer. But most critically, the major step backwards their defense has taken since last year. It's little wonder they're now 2-9 compared to the Jets 9-2 (oddly enough, this was a stat shared by the 2-9 Lions and the 9-2 Patriots). So, three games gone. I'm 2-1 pick wise to start week 12. I'll be back tomorrow with the rest of my selections for the coming week, but till then, spread the love around (just not to the Saints) and... Have a great day everyone.

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Thanksgiving picks and general thoughts.

So again time has conspired against me to rob me of the chance to assess the rookie watchlist in detail. Suffice to say that; - The first rounders are a mixed bag, - The middle rounders are mostly doing reasonably well, given that they're rookies taken in the middle rounds, - The late rounders/undrafted are largely filling out practice squads, Now, to a few things that are a little more immediately important: -- The League and the NFLPA have met regarding the ongoing labor discussions. Except that according to the NFL Network's Jason LaCanfora, all they really seemed to have discussed were the proposals for an 18-game schedule. Nice to see that they have their priorities straight. -- I watched a video of a Neuropsychologist (they study the brain in relation to psychological processes, oddly enough) talking about concussions. Inevitably the NFL came up. But what I can't understand is this; if concussions are such a big thing (they are) then why is the current helmet technology so abysmal? Let me start by saying that I understand that removing concussions 100% is probably an unachievable goal, but we can at least lessen their impact. Concussions are measured by acceleration/deceleration of the brain as it makes impact with the inside of the skull. Subsequently it is measured in "G"s, as in G-force. The average helmet-to-helmet collision in a football game is estimated to generate somewhere between 100-120g (why are we estimating? Can we not afford in this day an age to put some kind of accelerometer on/in a helmet?). Naturally then the concern is to reduce this impact. And to be honest, encasing the head in a soft inside layer and a hard outside layer is pretty much the stupidest thing you can do, short of encasing the head in a purely hard, thick layer. What is even more absurd/criminal, is that we already know this and we already have a design plan from which to draw inspiration. You get in it everyday. It is probably one of your most valuable possessions. It costs you a ton of money but you couldn't do what you do without it. I am of course talking about your car. Cars are dangerous. They travel at speeds that humans were never supposed to travel. They can deliver a tremendous impact when they crash. But they've also come along leaps and bounds safety wise in recent years. The part that we're interested in is the crumple zone. This is the section of your vehicle that is designed to essentially undergo a controlled collapse in the event of a high speed impact. As significant force is transmitted into the crumple zone, it begins to deform and absorb the Kinetic energy of the impact, allowing for a more gradual deceleration. The passengers are protected against the more severe impacts by a rigid central cabin structure. This is precisely what we need in modern football helmets. A rigid structure against the head to protect it with a softer, possibly deforming outer shell to reduce the effect of serious acceleration/deceleration. Maybe then there would be less bitching from the league about quarterbacks/defenseless receivers getting hit in the head. And think of the awesome replays, with chunks of spent helmet flying all over the place in High Definition....... ahem. And the safety factor of course. Time for my Thanksgiving Thursday night picks I think, starting with; New England Patriots @ Detroit Lions: Holy crap! The Patriots are on a roll. Deion Branch may not have the speed or the size of Rand Moss, but critically for the Patriots he does run every route in the tree. This makes him a more versatile asset up and down the field. With the additional emergence of the two rookie tight ends (Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski) and of RB Danny Woodhead, coupled with the Patriots seemingly more balanced offense this year -- both in play-calling and execution -- they are close to being back to their fearsome best. Will they put up 30 points a game? On occasion. For the most part though, it is about ruthless efficiency right now. Oh, and the Lions are also playing in this game. Unfortunately for them. Patriots win. New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys: I f...reakin' knew a game like this would come up this weekend. Here is the dilemma I see from a pick perspective; the Saints are ok, but they're not the Saints from 2009, meanwhile the Cowboys have put up two good wins in a row after dumping Wade Phillips, but those wins were against a so-so Giants team and.... the Detroit Lions (what's with the Lions bashing today?). So will the Cowboys keep up the offensive show we've become accustomed to in the last couple of games? Have the Saints seen enough on film to catch out the newly reborn Cowboys (who've gone a little outside their normal box recently in search of big plays)? Has the Dallas secondary really learnt to tackle yet? When are Saints fans going to learn to spell? When will Saints fans finally admit that their defense was allowed to get away with murder in the NFC Championship game? And that if they're honest, they kind of lucked their way into the big game? All important questions. Sadly I'm not sure as I have the answers. So, stab in the dark time..... I'm going with the home team. Cowboys win. Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets: Given the "Bungals" showing last week, I really can't take them over the Jets. Yes, I know the Jets have scraped through their recent games by the skin of their teeth, but that is better than getting your ass handed to you by the 2010 Buffalo Bills. That said, I'm not sure as the Jets record tells us everything we need to know about them. Their pass rush seems to have stumbled a little lately. Mark Sanchez might be earning a reputation for being cool at the end of games, but what about the rest of the contest? And what happened to the Jets running game? Still, they're playing the Bengals. Jets win. Have a great Thanksgiving everyone.

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Week 11 NFL recap

So, recap time, and I'm afraid it's going to be a brief one again this week. Now I received an e-mail (you can reach me at keepingthechainsmoving@live.co.uk ) which enquired as to why the recaps have been much shorter in recent months, especially when compared with this time last year. The answer is two-fold; a) My work schedule and b) the way I go about doing recaps Problem A is solvable. My current contract ends in about two, maybe three weeks, and I have no plans to renew it. Problem B is a bit more difficult. The simple reality is that it's humanly impossible to watch every game, every week. Thus in many cases I'm reliant on a combination of; a) highlights and b) statistics, specifically the box score. The two are conjured together with a dash on knowledge and past form to create the recap. Last year this process was helped immeasurably thanks to; a) NFL.com's highlights with radio calls and b) some player specific highlights (such as a QB or RB) As you can see, I like lists. The key was that last year they condensed the game into a 5 or 6 minute reel, including most of the key plays. More to the point, I was able to click back on the time stream and re-watch certain things like a TD pass without the whole video stopping and having to reload itself from that point, in order to check multiple things such as (here comes another list); a) Receivers routes, b) blitz's c) The QB's movement in the pocket, his head movement etc This year however the radio call highlights are gone. All that is left is a "highlight" reel that sometimes amounts to as little as showing 50 seconds of footage, with the NFL networks Gameday crew yapping over the top (There's something about Steve Mariucci; I just can't stand his OTT presentation style). If you think I'm the only one who doesn't like it, go to Google and type in "nfl.com highlights with radio calls". Some of the posts on various team forums are hilarious. This means that in order to get a decent look at the game I have to do the following (another list); a) Go to NFL.com b) Click on the game in question c) Click on the highlights tab d) Click on the sub tab for fantasy highlights e) Watch each individual highlight with the more helpful radio calls (down and distance for example) f) Endure a 15-30 second advert before every second highlight clip. Needless to say (but I'll say it anyway) this process is thus extremely laborious. Coupled with typing and proof reading, on average doing a full and proper recap takes between 5 and 7 hours (the condensed version a mere 3-4). Again, needless to say (but I'll say it anyway) this does not mix well with my current work schedule. So now you know. I'm sure those of you who are still awake are delighted about that. On with the recap: Baltimore Ravens 37 @ Carolina Panthers 13: - What were you expecting? For Brian St. Pierre to pluck an unlikely win out from his butt? - The crowd turned nasty when he started throwing picks (into triple coverage) but I guess you have to credit Carolina for giving the comeback a go. - Panthers RB Mike Goodson took 22 carries for 12o yards. Coupled with Jonathan Stewart next year, the Panthers now have little reason to renew DeAngelo William's contract. - 9 first downs to 22. Guess who had which. - Both teams were shocking on 3rd down (Baltimore: 2/11. Carolina: 1/13) Buffalo Bills 49 @ Cincinnati Bengals 31: - "The Fitzpatrick Strikes back". I warned you (21/34, 316 yards, 4 TDs, 2 INTs). - I couldn't help but laugh at the Bengals, who finally learned how to put up first half points... only to crumble as Buffalo mounted a second half comeback that would have made the Bengals proud (if they hadn't just had their butts kicked of course). - Both teams produced a 100+ yard rusher (Bills; Fred Jackson, 21 carries, 116 yards, 2 TDs. Bengals; Cedric Benson, 25 carries, 124 yards, 1 TD, 1 fumble). - Credit to Bills receiver Steve Johnson (8 receptions, 137 yards, 3 TDs). - Bengals corner Johnathan Joseph grabbed two picks (one for six), but his lack of production compared to last year has hurt the Bengals this season. Detroit 19 @ Dallas Cowboys 35: - My sympathy's to regular reader/commenter Kevin... a Lions fan (ha, ha). - Shaun Hill was 32/47 for 289 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT. That is some serious dinking and dunking right there. - Conversely John Kitna came back to haunt his previous team with 18/24 for 147 yards and 3 TDs (plus a rushing TD.... on a bootleg. John Kitna. On a bootleg). - Rookie Bryan McCann made another smart play to earn a TD this week. Nice to see a young player being rewarded for his hard work and smarts. Cleveland Browns 20 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 24: - The Jaguars left it late again, coming back with two 4th quarter TDs. - The Browns wont win games on a regular basis until they learn to punish teams for their mistakes (Garrard threw 3 interceptions, Jones-Drew another, and the Jaguars fumbled twice). - It wasn't a great day for offensive linemen, with 10 sacks (Browns; 4. Jaguars; 6) - Keep an eye for the rest of the season on Browns LB Chris Gocong, who (if I remember correctly) is a free agent at the end of the season. Could be a bargain basement scoop for someone. Arizona Cardinals 13 @ Kansas City Chiefs 31: - Yep, the Cardinals are bad. - Cardinals QB Derek Anderson (25/46, 295 yards) produced just 1 TD. - The Chiefs got back to their running game again (Jamaal Charles; 12 carries, 88 yards. Thomas Jones; 15 carries, 71 yards, 2 TDs). - Dwayne Bowe; 6 catches, 109 yards, 2 TDs. Beware again. - Kendrick Lewis, Eric Berry and Javier Arenas (1 sack) (all watch Lister's) filled three of the top four tacklers slots on the Chiefs D. Green Bay Packers 31 @ Minnesota Vikings 3: - When Brad Childress urged his team before the game to "get a sack", I don't think this was quite what he had in mind. - Brett Favre's glorious return fizzled out into 17/38 for 208 yards and an INT. - Aaron Rodgers meanwhile cruised to 22/31 for 301 yards and 4 TDs. - Greg Jennings did ok to; 7 receptions for 152 yards, 3 TDs. Houston Texans 27 @ New York Jets 30: - Oh dear, the Texans blow another good comeback. - Two sacks for Texans DE Mario Williams is promising though. Now, if they can just trade in the rest of that D.... - Mark Sanchez (22/38, 315 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) came through in the clutch again, as did WR Santonio Holmes (7 receptions, 126 yards, 2 TDs) - LaDanian Tomlinson showed everyone the versatility which is part of why the Jets picked him up and why those backing him in Free Agency should be considered geniuses... (*cough, cough*) (12 carries, 36 yards. 7 receptions for 71 yards). Oakland Raiders 3 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 35: - ... Unless of course they picked the Raiders to beat the Steelers. - How do you overcome 14 penalties for 163 yards? By playing the Raiders it seems. - On a serious note, if the NFL is trying to prove that they are not biased against Pittsburgh, as many Steelers fans believe they are, then this will amount to a PR disaster. It was almost blatant at times. - Funniest moment of the week? Watching Ben Roethlisberger run up to Raiders DE Richard Seymour and appear to talk smack... only to get clubbed right in the kisser. Seymour was ejected and has since been fined $25,000. - The Steel Curtain descended once more with 6 sacks. - Roethlisberger completed just 18/29, but did so for 275 yards and 3 TDs. Washington Redskins 19 @ Tennessee Titans 16: - Donovan McNabb; 30/50 for 376 yards and an INT. One TD. One. - Vince Young; 12/16 for 165 yards, one set of pads picked off, one locker room lost. - The Titans failed to score an offensive TD. Their sole TD of the game was picked up by emerging weapon, rookie WR Marc Mariani on an 87 yard punt return. And yet the Redskins still struggled just to take the game to overtime. Seattle Seahawks 19 @ New Orleans Saints 34: - Drew Brees; 29/43, 382 yards, 4 TD's, 2 INT's. This is a bit more like the real Drew Brees. - Matt Hasselbeck; 32/44, 366 yards, 1 TD. Another of the season favourite "all yards, little scores" performances. - Saints RB Chris Ivory stopped being a threat and actually became a factor with 23 carries, for 99 yards, 1 TD. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21 @ San Francisco 49ers 0: - Guess I shouldn't have laughed at the Lions fan really. - Troy Smith; 16/31 for 148 yards, 1 INT. Dare I say "bring back Alex Smith"? - Credit to Smith though, he put up more rushing yards on 5 carries (45) than Frank Gore did on 12 carries (23). - The 49ers O-line looks F***ing horrid. Worse, they look like Seattle. - Josh Freeman; just 13/20 for 136 yards, but crucially 2 TD's. - LaGarrette Blount; 26 carries, 82 yards. - Patrick Willis finished the game with 9 tackles and 2 sacks. Now if the rest of the defense could just pitch in we'd be well away. Atlanta Falcons 34 @ St. Louis Rams 17: - The QB battle was fairly even (Matt Ryan; 26/39, 253 yards, 2 TD's. Sam Bradford; 27/42, 233 yards, 2 TD's, 1 INT). - The RB battle wasn't (Michael Turner; 28 carries, 131 yards, 1 TD. Steven Jackson; 11 carries, 54 yards). - Predictably, Curtis Lofton led his team in tackles with 7. In fact, the Falcons played it pretty much exactly as I called it. I'm starting to like the Falcons. - Rams Tight End Michael Hoomanawanui. They need to get this guy the ball more so we can laugh at announcers trying to pronounce his name. Indianapolis Colts 28 @ New England Patriots 31: - Say what you like about the Colts and the Patriots, they put on an entertaining game. - In the run up to the game, Peyton Manning was worried about the Patriots listening in to the Colts locker room. Turns out it was the Colts pulling out the underhanded tricks; Brady complained after the game in a radio interview that the Colts D-linemen were trying to mimic the Patriots snap count during the final few plays. - It was a tale of two very different QB performances (Peyton Manning; 38/52, 396 yards, 4 TD's, 3 INT's. Tom Brady; 19/25, 186 yards, 2 TD's). - Running backs BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead played a pivotal role in the Pats win (Green-Ellis; 21 carries, 96 yards, 1 TD. Woodhead; 7 carries, 69 yards, 1 TD). - The Colts 3rd down efficiency (11/14 - 78%) and red zone efficiency (4/4 - 100%) were scary. Shame about the picks hey Peyton. New York Giants 17 @ Philadelphia Eagles 27: - Eli Manning; 20/33, 147 yards, 2 TD's, 3 INT's. Tack on an incredibly stupid fumble near the end of the game and you have a receipe for an over rated QB. - The Giants receivers must bear some of the blame. At times their technique and awareness were appalling. - Michael Vick; 24/38, 258 yards. Stood up to the blitz well. A key stat though is his 11 carries for 34 yards and a TD. Much reduced compared to last week. - Despite losing, the Giants D set a precedent for keeping Vick under control (sort of), by blitzing from his left and forcing him to scramble right. With defenders in hot pursuit he was unable to stop and cock back his left arm for a throw. - Eagles RB LeSean McCoy busted out a few big runs to end the game with 14 carries for 11 yards and a TD. - When he gets going Giants RB Ahmad Bradshaw can be outstanding. The trouble is his O-line seem to have trouble remembering who they're supposed to be blocking and how to make the blocks when they do remember. - On the other hand, the Eagles O-line were largely pretty good. - Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora are beasts. Tuck took home 6 tackles, 3 sacks and 2 forced fumbles. Though Umenyiora doesn't ave the stats, his athleticism was on display, blocking off running lanes for Vick and forcing him back into the rest of the Giants D. Denver 14 @ San Diego Chargers 35: - Classic. I should have known that the "Modest Yards, actually scores points" Chargers would show up. - Speaking of which; Philip Rivers; 15/24, 233 yards, 4 TD's, 1 INT. - Mike Tolbert; 25 carries, 111 yards, 1 TD. - Question; given the success of Fullbacks like Mike Tolbert and Clevelands Peyton Hillis, plus power backs like LaGarrette Blount, will we see a rash of FB type running backs next year? I hope so, it's one of the reasons I put Charles Scott on my watch list (He's on the Giants practice squad at the minute), and backed Brit Miller, formerly of the 49ers (now on the Rams practice squad). - Kyle Orton; 24/38 for 217 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT. How can he and the Broncos offense fluctuate so much week to week? - The Chargers D racked up 5 sacks, including 2 for LB Shaun Phillips. Given Phillip's performance this season, it's much easier to understand why the Chargers dumped Shawne Merriman. - Comparing 3rd down efficiency tells us a lot (Bronocs; 1/12 - 8%. Chargers; 7/14 - 50%). - Is this the start of the Chargers now annual comeback streak? There we go then. 15 games, all wrapped up. Including the Thursday night game that means I finish the week at a respectable 11-5 from a pick perspective. For the season I'm now 83-77, which is still bad. Now hopefully this week I can get my retrospective of the rookie watch list done. He says..... Have a great day everyone

Monday, November 22, 2010

Childress fired

Brad Childress is gone. Vikings fans are probably rejoicing right about now at the news that Brad Childress has been fired as the Head Coach of the Minnesota Vikings. In the meantime Defensive Coordinator Leslie Frazier has been named interim Head Coach. As far as I'm aware, Jay Glazer of FOX sports was the first to break the news. So, what can Vikings fans expect now? Who knows. Hopefully two things will happen to make an immediate shake up; 1) Favre will be dumped and 2) Tavaris Jackson will be given a shot as the starting QB for the rest of the season, allowing the Vikings to assess whether they really want to stick with Jackson who has failed to cement himself as a consistent, quality quarterback. Something had to be done though. The Vikings have been horrible at times. They'll be hoping the winds of change can fix blow away some of the negativity in the locker room and help to unify the team. Now is Frazier the long term answer? I'm not sure. Don't forget that the Vikings defense hasn't exactly played it's part this season. Either way this will be a good audition for Frazier, who many believed was in the running to get a permanent HC shot somewhere else if the Vikings stuck with 'Chilly'. So, there we are. I'll be back either later today, maybe tomorrow to round up the weekends action. Till then, Have a great day everyone. (Just quickly, a little song in honor of Brad "Chilly" Childress)

Sunday, November 21, 2010

Week 11 NFL picks

Futility time again, as I make the rest of my week 11 picks, starting with: Baltimore Ravens @ Carolina Panthers: Whatever it is that the Panthers are selling, I aint buying. Hands up here anyone who knew who Brian St. Pierre was prior to this week? Anybody? I thought as much. It just seems like the Panthers are shooting for the number 1 overall pick, because I don't see how bringing in St. Pierre to start helps your football team. I understand that Tony Pike is a rookie, but Pierre's career passing yard tally amounts to a whole 12 yards. I'd rather take the chance with the rookie if I'm completely honest. The only possible explanations other than the "number one pick solution" is that the Panthers are shielding Pike from the possibility of injury and disappointment at the hands of the Ravens D, or it's just a plain ruse to make the Ravens work harder in film study. Either way, Baltimore should -- theoretically -- walk this one. Ravens win. Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals: Hmm (one of them). How do you separate two teams like this? The Bills play defense like the Texans. The Bengals play offense like the Alex Smith led 49ers. It's madness. The Bengals really do have a good team that is loaded with depth. I'm being honest, they do! The trouble is that right now they're not loaded at the QB position. Carson Palmer is just inconsistent. For a whole half of football he'll throw the ball like it was made of lead and with the vision of Stevie Wonder. Then in the second half -- usually when it's too late -- he'll suddenly start channeling his inner Peyton Manning and hit some good throws. That for me poses a big problem and I can't help but go with Ryan Fitzpatrick for this one. Bills win. Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys: We have a problem to solve here; was that the real Cowboys playing last Sunday, or was it just the shock of getting a new head coach? Can we honestly predict that the Cowboys will repeat that showing? But then thinking about it, who cares? They're playing the Lions, a team that should have really done more with itself this season. The offense has been suspect and the defense has trouble showing up to every game. On balance, I have to go with Dallas here. Cowboys win. Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars: The Browns have a problem. Josh Cribbs is out with a foot injury. That leaves the Browns with Colt McCoy, Peyton Hillis and who else on offense? I jest of course, but the Browns will miss Cribbs big time. He's one of the few threats to keep people away from loading the box on Hillis on first and second down. Which is precisely what I expect the Jaguars to do, putting Colt McCoy on the spot. And given that I'm a McCoy fanboy, I think he'll step up. The Jaguars have the potential to give the Browns defense a run for its money, but then we all thought the Patriots would do that too..... Browns win. Arizona Cardinals @ Kansas City Chiefs: Don't give up on the Chiefs just yet. Primarily this is because they're playing the Cardinals, but also because they still have a tough defense. Derrick Johnson and Tamba Hali have done really well so far this season, but they still have more left in the tank. Meanwhile Eric Berry is developing into an excellent safety on the back end, all of which should be enough to keep the Cardinals in check. Ahh the Cardinals, how far they've fallen this season. Proof that even a receiver like Larry Fitzgerald is worth little without someone to get him the ball. Chiefs win. Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings: This is it. This will be Favre's last shot at Green Bay. I think even if he wants to come back next year, his body wont let him and nobody will be that desperate. Ok, maybe the Panthers, but other than them nobody will be that desperate. So, will we see Monsieur Favre (fact: I failed French in school) go out with a bang? Well that depends what type of bang we're talking about. If it's the bang where Favre dances in the middle of the field with his arms in the air after throwing a last second TD, then probably not. If it's the bang where Clay Matthews and Desmond Bishop meet in the backfield and have their attempt at a man-hug rudely broken up by Favre inconveniently standing between them, then I think we might be on for a winner. As will Green Bay. Packers win. Houston Texans @ New York Jets: The Texans could do a lot worse than to sit down and take comprehensive notes of the Jets defense on Sunday. If the Jets D is close to being the cream of the crop in the NFL, then the Texans D are one of those irritating bits of instant coffee that never seems to fully dissolve, no matter how much boiling water it comes into contact with. In fact, the Texans D is so bad this year that they might just make Mark Sanchez look like Peyton Manning for the day. The big question mark for me though is this; what the hell happened to the Texans offense? What happened to Matt Schaub? What happened to Arian Fosters early start? They've just disappeared into the NFL abyss. Which means only one thing. Jets win. Oakland Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Strength vs. Strength time, as the Raiders rushing attack matches up with the Steelers rush defense. I so badly want to take the Raiders for this one. So badly. But I just don't know if I can. How much do I trust Jason Campbell to put the ball up in the air for Jacoby Ford and Zack Miller (you mean Zach Miller) knowing that Troy Polamalu is lurking in that secondary? I've also become an Ike Taylor fan in recent weeks, which doesn't help the cause. But then on the flip side, I don't trust Roethlisberger either. Lately, under pressure -- which he's sure to receive with Richard Seymour and Kamerion Wimbley on the field -- he just seems to lose sight of the field and panic. And with the Steelers getting away from their running game, I just can't ditch that niggling feeling in the back of my mind. Ah screw it, Raiders win. Washington Redskins @ Tennessee Titans: I know I've championed the Titans this season and they've basically fallen flat on their face time and again, but I'm going to back them once more. This has very little to do with the Titans themselves, and a lot to do with the Redskins. I watched in awe last week as what I previously thought was an ok defense just collapsed like a house of cards in strong breeze. And the offense did absolutely nothing to help the situation. They simply looked inept on a level not seen since the Lions went 0-16. I can't back that horse. McNabb is back to his inconsistent best (for now) and the legend that was Brian Orakpo appears to be on holiday. Ryan Torain can't buy 20 carries from his coaches, while Chris Cooley & Fred Davis are currently looking like the greatest double act that never was. In short, Titans win. Seattle Seahawks @ New Orleans Saints: Hahahahaha, c'mon. This is criminal. Of course, having laughed so heartily at the Seahawks I'm setting myself up for a fall, but that's the way the cookie crumbles sometimes. Or more to the point, the way the Seahawks line crumbles. I swear that line couldn't block a pensioner on a mobility scooter. They just seem to flap and flail at the defensive line without doing a lot. The most stable base any of them have seen all season was at the bottom of a pizza box that they sneaked into training camp. For the Saints, this should be a Brees (chortle, chortle). Saints win. Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Fransisco 49ers: Do you know what the worst thing is right now about being a 49ers fan? We've won two games in a row and I still can't back my team. I was impressed at first by Troy Smith's attitude towards winning the starting job. But I'm a realist. What I see when I watch him play is a lot of balls being hurled into the air, followed by a little prayer. So far God has smiled on Troy, but it can't last. He misses clear reads down the field and throws into coverage far too often. Like Romeo and Juliet, it's destined to end in tears. Bucs' win. Atlanta Falcons @ St. Louis Rams: I'm loving the Rams this year and if it wasn't for the fact that they're in the 49ers division and therefore can die on steaks covered in salt, I'd probably cheer for them. The defense looks like it has life for a change and Sam Bradford is doing a pretty good job as the starting QB. All things considered though, I have to take the Falcons. "Matty Ice" is on fire. If that makes sense. More to the point, the Falcons defense -- spearheaded by LB Curtis Lofton -- is keeping the score down in the early stages, allowing the Falcons to stick with Michael Turner and their running game. This leads to opportunities for Matt Ryan to go play-action to Roddy White, with inevitable consequences (one day, people might even start talking about White in the same breath as Andre Johnson. One day). So yeah. Falcons win. Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots: I wish people would stop calling it a conspiracy that these two teams play so often. They both won their division last year, hence they both play each other, as indeed they will both play the winner of the AFC North (the Bengals) and AFC West (the Chargers). There, now you know why they keep playing each other, because they are both consistently very good teams that clock up division wins like they were being handed out for free. Which is why it always makes for compelling viewing. Probably the two best QBs of the modern age going head to head for bragging rights. Brady vs. Manning. And not forgetting Belichick versus Manning. And occasionally it would seem, Belichick versus the Patriots. I can't tell you how many times you're going to see that fourth and two attempt on TV this weekend, but I'm guessing it's going to run into the craploads. It'll be interesting to see how Belichick handles his fourth down decisions in this one. Oh, and the Patriots win. New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles: After his stunning show on Monday Night Football last week, Vick now faces a Giants defense that has earned a reputation this year for sidelining QBs. It'll be an interesting watch, that's for sure. Just how do you defend someone like Vick? If you sit back to stop him running, then you have to give him all the time in the world to pick apart your secondary. And if you go after him? You'd better darn well get home, or he'll find the gap and get on his horse downfield. Personally I'd favour going after him and potentially letting him run. That's preferable to sitting back and watching him sling the rock 60 yards to DeSean Jackson who then proceeds to toast your secondary on his way to the end zone. But it's not about what I'd do, it's about what the Giants will do. Which is lose, I think. Eagles win. Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers: The week that I said the Broncos had a roster capable of winning a Super Bowl, they bombed in spectacular fashion. The following week I said ok, have it your way, you suck. And they nailed the Chiefs into obscurity for 60 minutes. So I have no idea which Broncos team will show up this week. I also have no idea which Chargers team will show up. Will it be the "lots of yards, but few points" Chargers? Or the "Modest Yards, actually scores points" Chargers? And will they have closed the gaping hole in the middle (literally) of their special teams protection? Given the amount of variables, I will side against the Chargers. Broncos win. And there you have it. 15 of the best. I'm already one down after Thursday nights embarrassment by the Dolphins O-line. Here's hoping for a bit better luck. Have a great day everyone. (and just for Carson Palmer)

Friday, November 19, 2010

(The real) Thursday Night recap

Ok, ok, time to do a proper recap of the Thursday Night game: Chicago Bears 16 @ Miami Dolphins 0: Hopefully -- right about now -- a lot of people are feeling about the Bears what I felt last year about the Saints. Hopefully they now understand exactly what I was going through each week, desperately shouting at the TV trying to explain that the Saints were not as good as the record showed. Near enough every week the Saints came up smelling of roses thanks in large part to their opposition. An average team somehow lucked its way through the season, all the way to the big game. Now the Bears are doing the same thing. And yet I wake up and find people talking about the Bears as "serious contenders" now. How? Where they watching the same game yesterday? As much maligned as Tyler Thigpen has been since throwing 17/29, 187 yards and an INT, surely people have to have seen the same O-line performance that I did? The Dolphins couldn't run. They couldn't pass protect. They just couldn't block, flat out. Tyler Thigpen spent most of the game running away from salivating defensive players who couldn't believe their luck. So how did the Bears offense get on? 16 points. Three field goals and a 2-yard TD run. Cutler was 16/25 for 156 yards and 1 INT. The surprise of the night was Matt Forte taking 25 carries for 97 yards and a TD (the fact that he even got 25 carries was surprising enough). From the perspective of the Bears offense we realise that this could have easily swung the other way. Despite the defense producing an interception and six sacks (three alone for Julius Peppers), they failed to capitalise sufficiently. Don't expect some of the main playoff contenders in the NFC to be so generous come January. But then, if I learnt anything from watching the Saints last year and the Cardinals the year before, some teams just seem to have an almost magical ability to coax the worst out of their opponents. Anyway, I'll be back either later today or probably tomorrow with the rest of my picks for week 11. Till then, Have a great day everyone.

Thursday Night Football recap

Chicago Bears 16 @ Miami Dolphins 0: Here is my analysis. Screw the Bears. And screw the Dolphins too. Have a great day everyone.

Thursday, November 18, 2010

Thursday Night Football pick

Time again for a Thursday Night Football pick. At least last weeks was one of the few I got: Chicago Bears @ Miami Dolphins: I'm just gonna come right out and say it; I have no idea how the Bears keep winning games. How, how? Their offensive line is terrible. They'd struggle to get a push going against a bunch of freshman college kids. Their pass protection is even worse. Cutler is mistake prone. And while the defense is definitely the strong point, even their they have a laundry list of woes. This is why I'm taking Miami. They're the opposite of Chicago. They have some great receivers in Brandon Marshall, Davone Bess and Brian Hartline (under rated). Tight End Anthony Fasano is one of the best in the league at his position when you factor in run blocking and receiving. They have a solid offensive line. A great pass rush, led by Cameron Wake. A very solid linebacking corps. Maybe you could argue they're a little thin on the back end, but strong safety Yeremiah Bell and corner Vontae Davis don't get nearly enough credit for the work they do. Now that said, much hinges on quarterback Tyler Thigpen. I like Thigpen. He came in and played well on the back end of last weeks game against the Titans. The question is can he start and carry that level of play he showed last week through a whole game, as the Dolphins let him loose with much of the playbook? I believe so. From what I've seen of Thigpen through the years since he was drafted in 2007, I think he's ready. And if Thigpen goes down? Well, the Dolphins are probably crossing every finger and toe that it doesn't happen, but if they need to they should have Patrick Ramsey on the bench. Ramsey played well in the pre-season for the Saints and the terminology of the offense shouldn't be too foreign to him, having essentially moved from one "West Coast Offense" to another. He showed good footwork and accuracy for the Saints, though the timing will probably be a bit shaky. In short; Dolphins win. Now before I finish for the day, I just want to direct you towards this article by Michael Lombardi. It now seems that Lombardi's articles are a bit like buses; you wait ages for a good one and then two come along at once. Have a great day everyone.

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Thoughts for the day

Two random thoughts for the day today: -- According to this article by ProFootballTalk.com, Charley Casserly of CBS has reported that the NFL could be looking at the possibility of widening the field in order to increase player safety. My initial reaction was "....... huh?". Quickly followed by "..... what?". I dunno, maybe someone out there who is a hell of a lot smarter than me (no jokes please) can figure this one out. How does making the field wider help player safety? I mean, there has to be a reason. You don't just say "we'll widen the field, that will improve player safety. Fact". There has to be a "widening the field will cause xyz which is what will make the game safer". I don't understand. To me all that will happen is this 1) there will be more field to defend, helping the offense and 2) defensive backs will have to cover more ground to make the hit, allowing them to build more speed and thus make much harder impact with offensive players. Forgive me if I'm wrong, but to me this will actually make player safety worse. And it will serve as yet another artificial "pro-offense" move. Now don't get me wrong, I like offensive football. When I coached, I coached mostly offense. But what I prefer is to see the natural evolution of offensive football (or in the case of the "wildcat" it could be argued a regression of offensive football back to the 20's). I like to see coaches using different formations and personnel groups. I like seeing Dan Henning of the Dolphins putting his backs in the classic split-back set that is so reminiscent of Bill Walsh's 49ers (even if the quality of the offensive play isn't). I like seeing team throw in two tight ends and juggle them around, or the Browns putting RB/FB Peyton Hillis on the outside in space against a linebacker. What I don't like is the NFL artificially aiding the offense. Chucking down 15 yards just because a QB got tapped on the head or because a defender made a rough tackle on someone, all the while being almost blind to the weekly tally of missed holding penalties committed by offensive linemen, or the supposedly illegal "pick/rub" plays run by certain teams (*cough* Colts). -- Kicker Jeff Reed has been cut by the Steelers following a 26-yard field goal miss against the Patriots on Sunday night. Now, if this is being used an excuse to finally dump Reed after all the off season/off field problems they've had with him, then that's one thing. But if this is purely about the quality of his play then I don't get it. Why? Because (I know, bad grammar), his replacement is Shaun Suisham. Shaun Suisham ladies and gentlemen. The same kicker who shot to fame (or maybe just infamy) last season for missing a 23-yard chip shot field goal that would have given the Redskins a win over the previously undefeated Saints. He then missed two field goals in the Cowboys play off game. In the pre-season this year he was cut from the Rams for his poor showing. And now here he is, in Pittsburgh. And I will never understand the approach of NFL teams to kickers. If you think cutting Reed and signing Suisham is going to fix that particular problem, then there's a rude awakening on the horizon. I could understand it if they were about to swoop the Raiders kicker Sebastian Janikowski in some crafty piece of trading, but they're not. They're about to replace a generally pretty solid kicker who is well accustomed to the conditions at Heinz Field, with a brand new kicker who is notorious for all the wrong reasons and will have little idea about the kicking conditions. Each to his own I guess. I'll be back later with my Thursday Night pick, but till then, Have a great day everyone.

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Monday Night Footballl

Philadelphia Eagles 59 @ Washington Redskins 28: Well, at least I got one pick nailed down tight this week. The Eagles absolutely creamed the Redskins, putting up four TDs in the first quarter and another in the early stages of the second before the Redskins even seemed to wake up. Michael Vick dominated the show. 20/28 for 333 yards and 4 TDs, plus another 80 yards and 2 TDs on 8 rushes. Tack on an eleven carry, 109 yard and 1 TD performance from running back Jerome Harrison and it's all over. The Redskins tried to fight back. Donovan McNabb went 17/31 for 295 yards, 2 TDs and 3 INTs. RB Kelland Williams managed to put up 89 yards and 2 TDs off 16 carries (Williams also caught one of McNabbs two TD passes). But it was all too little, too late. The Redskins struggles on third down (0/10) didn't help either. Vick though was the master puppeteer of this one, pulling all the strings and making everyone dance to his tune. He combined superb speed & agility to dance past tacklers when he scrambled. Through the air he showed poise, accuracy and a cannon of an arm. It was -- quite simply -- the most awesome display of individual brilliance I've ever seen on a football field. Makes you wonder what could have been really, when you think back to March/April time that the Eagles were looking to trade Vick for a mere 2nd round pick. Like I said here and here, I would have taken the bait on Vick and right now I'd be laughing. Heartily. So, picks. You don't really want to see them do you? You don't want to see how I got on? Oh well, here we are: 5-9. Five and bloody nine! That takes me back to a season tally of.... 72-72. Dead perfect, middle of the pack. Ah, at least it's easy to remember. Now before I disappear for the moment, just time to point you in the direction of an article on NFL.com by Michael Lombardi. But shock, horror, it's not a bad one. I actually really enjoyed this article, which means either Michael Lombardi has been supplanted by a ghost writer or he just genuinely is a lot better when he writes articles from the perspective of a former executive talking as if he were still an executive, as opposed to trying to be a broadcast journalist. Let it not be said that I don't give credit where it's due. Have a great day everyone.

Monday, November 15, 2010

NFL week 10 round up

What the hell happened? My picks didn't just fail, they largely bombed. Let's have a look back at the action from Sunday of Week 10: Detroit Lions 12 @ Buffalo Bills 14: Erm. Uh. Just. What? I honestly thought the Lions had this one wrapped up. I couldn't see how Buffalo's line was going to stand up to the punishment that the Lions pass rush was sure to dish out. But in the end the Lions mustered just one sack and the offense just one touchdown. Shaun Hill completed just a little over half of his 50 passes, as the Lions line fails once more to generate anything resembling a rushing lane. Meanwhile the Bills turned it on its head, with Fred Jackson carrying 25 times for 133 yards and a TD, plus another TD receiving. With LB Paul Posluszny holding up the defense with 11 tackles, it was a great win for the Bills that stops them going winless for the season. Minnesota Vikings 13 @ Chicago Bears 27: From a 400+ yard game to 170 yards and 3 interceptions for Brett Favre. The bad side of the gunslinger returned again against Chicago and it cost them dearly. That, coupled with just 51 yards from 17 carries for Adrian Peterson. That, coupled with some appalling coverage play on special teams. That, coupled with the Vikings defense generating just one sack against probably the worst offensive line in football. If it's not one thing with the Vikings then it's about ten others. Cutler even tried to give the game back by throwing 2 interceptions to go with the three TD passes, but there's just no helping some people. New York Jets 26 @ Cleveland Browns 20: You have to feel for the Browns. So close. So unbelievably close to putting away the Jets. But costly errors in overtime hurt them. A fumble when they were nearly in field goal range. An interception that pinned them against their own goal line (as opposed to a bat down) and then not running enough time off the clock and instead trying to fight their way out of a desperately tight hole. Credit to the Browns though for their last gasp (in regulation) score that saw Colt McCoy (watch list) lead his team down the field and into overtime. Cincinnati Bengals 17 @ Indianapolis Colts 23: If you're on the Bengals defense then you have to be upset, no question about it. They held Manning to 185 yards off of 36 throws (20 complete). And they still lost the game. Three interceptions by Carson Palmer -- including one returned for a TD -- really hurt the Bengals, as did a late fumble by Jermaine Gresham. But after the game most of the fingers being pointed at the Bengals by the press seem to be pointed at Terrell Owens. Which I just don't get. I know he had a bad game himself, but so far this year he's been the offensive star in Cincinnati. He's kind of entitled to have a bad game now and again. Oh wait, I've just remembered why they're picking on him... because that's what people in the media always do. T.O. makes a good, quotable scapegoat that everyone can blame while nodding sagely. And it stinks, a lot like Carson Palmer. Houston Texans 24 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 31: The Texans thought their luck was in. They benefited from the phantom "second act" provision that seems to have been inserted into the rules regarding receivers going to the ground (check, it's not anywhere in the written rules). This provided them with a game tying TD and then when Josh Scobee shanked a long field goal try, they must have been thinking that god was smiling on them for a change. But then they fumbled the ball away and on their final drive the Jaguars took a shot with 3 seconds left on the clock. The ball sailed damn near 6o yards, arcing into the end zone only for Glover Quin to leap up and knock it down.... right into the grasp of Mike Thomas. Having overcome the shock of making the catch Thomas walked into the end zone to win a cracker of a game. Matt Schaub finished 22/32 for 314 yards and 2 Touchdowns. David Garrard matched him punch for punch with 24/31 for 342 yards and 2 Touchdowns of his own. Maurice Jones-Drew had 24 carries for 100 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground, which makes a change for the Jags to actually lean on their run game a little. Tennessee Titans 17 @ Miami Dolphins 29: Wait, no fair!! What happened to Pennington? You can't just go down on the second throw and come out injured! That's against the unwritten law of football picks! So Chad Henne enters and surprise, surprise he puts up 19/28 for 240 yards, a TD and an INT. See! I told you there was nothing wrong with him! Until of course he got injured prior to the start of the 4th quarter and the Dolphins are forced to break out the Wildcat (what was it I'm always saying about sticking to what you do well). And so finally it falls to Tyler Thigpen (fan, right here). 4/6, 64 yards and a TD. Thank you and goodnight everyone! What do you mean "What about the Titans?". Kerry Collins is an old back up for a reason. 9/20 for 51 yards is a very good indication of that reason. So he gets injured.... just walking. And on comes Vince Young (who I was led to believe was injured). 9/18 for 92 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT. So what about Chris Johnson? You know, that super fast running back you have? 17 carries. 17. For 117 yards and a TD (longest; 30). Are the Titans even trying to win the division? Carolina Panthers 16 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31: The Panthers lost? Good. Screw the Panthers. Pleased to see Carolina RB Mike Goodson get 23 carries, which he took for 100 yards (longest; 18). But other than that, hooray for the Buccaneers who now improve to 6-3. Josh Freeman was efficient, completing 18/24 for 241 yards and 2 touchdowns. RB LaGarrette Blount (a steal after being cut by the Titans after pre-season) had 19 carries for 91 yards and a TD. Even Cadillac Williams got in on the act with 5 carries for 62 yards (longest; 45) and a TD. 10 penalties for 80 yards? Not so good. But it's points on the board and numbers in the win column that matter, so the Buc's are just fine right now. Kansas City Chiefs 29 @ Denver Broncos 49: Have to say, love the way that NFL Gameday on NFL network managed to condense the highest scoring game of the weekend down into just over a minute of highlights. What the hell? Just because Favre or Manning isn't playing in the game? (Cowboys/Giants got 4:54. Media market bias?). Last year I remember their highlight segments being more in depth and we used to get the highlights with radio calls on NFL.com (they're gone to, which is shame because they were even longer and certainly more interesting to watch). Still, moving on. This is why I currently hate the Broncos and Josh McDaniels. Where has all this been each week when I picked the Broncos? I've picked them so many times this year, safe in the knowledge that they have a good QB and they have a good team overall. But they wait until I pick against them and then suddenly explode! Even Knowshon Moreno got a look in with 22 carries for 106 yards (longest; 14). You kind of have to feel sorry though for Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe. 22/53 for 469 yards and 4 TDs, with Bowe making 13 catches for 186 yards and 2 TDs. Any other game and people would be staring in wide eyed wonder at these numbers. This game? It barely registers due to the Broncos score. All people know is that Tim Tebow (watch list) ran for a TD and threw another, his first passing TD in the NFL. You just can't get the love these days. Seattle Seahawks 36 @ Arizona Cardinals 18: And it wasn't even that close. If Seattle could have converted some of those drives that ended in short field goals, they might have put 50 on the Cardinals. Hasselbeck went 22/34 for 33 yards and a TD, with Justin Forsett and Marshawn Lynch punching in two more. The star of the game was possibly Seahawks WR Mike Williams who had 11 receptions for 145 yards. The Seahawks defense also stood up to be counted. LB Aaron Curry (remember him?) finally tapped some of his potential to lead his team in tackles with 7, as well as registering two sacks and a forced fumble. Chris Clemons added two more sacks and Lawyer Milloy scored the fifth. Dallas Cowboys 33 @ New York Giants 20: Cost of the New Meadowlands stadium: $1 billion. Cost of the lights going partially out during a game and making you look like asses: priceless. Worse, watching John Kitna put up 327 yards and 3 TDs (1 INT) from just 13/22. Meanwhile Eli Manning went to the air 48 times and completed 33 for 373 yards, 2 TDs, but also 2 INTs. It was a true battle of the aerial beasts as Dez Bryant (3 catches, 104 yards, TD) lead the Cowboys receivers against the Giants in a "who can pull off the most spectacular catch contest". In the end though the Cowboys came through as their collection of actual points trumped the Giants collection of yards and first downs. St. Louis Rams 20 @ San Francisco 49ers 23: Given up five sacks? Not a problem. Sam Bradford throwing 30/42 for 251 yards and a TD on you? Not a problem. Steven Jackson carrying 20 times for 81 yards and a TD? Not a problem. At least not when you have..... Troy Smith!! 17/28 for 356 yards and a TD. And that's how it's done, 2 for 2 now as a starter. I think we've also figured out that Smiths signature play over the coming years is going to go a little something like this; drop back, hold onto ball too long, wait for pass rushers to start grabbing your ankles, throw a leap of faith deep ball at the last possible second, hope it goes complete. So far, so good. New England Patriots 39 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 26: I'm not even sure how the Steelers stayed in this one. The Patriots came right out of the gate firing on all cylinders while Pittsburgh kind of wandered along looking lost. At times in that first half Ben Roethlisberger looked like a liability. Then he almost became the saviour. Overall it was a weird game to watch. Looking at the numbers you'd be confused for thinking the teams had traded places. One team took home 5 sacks, the other zero. If I told you that, you'd assume it was the Steelers who got the sacks, especially given how weak the Patriots pass rush has been. Then if I told you one team ran the ball 24 times and the other just 16, you'd again assume it was the Steelers who rushed 24 times. And again, you'd be wrong. In the end Brady went 30/43 for 350 yards and 3 TDs. Roethlisberger; 30/49 for 387 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT (which was taken to the house). The Patriots roll to 7-2. So, how did I do with my picks? 3-9 on the day, leaving me 4-9 for the week. Just a tragic day. Personally I blame it all on the Broncos just.... because. One more game to go as I back Philly over Washington. Have a great day everyone.