Week 12 NFL Picks

Phew, finally found the time to sit down at the computer -- undisturbed -- with a coffee in hand and some Week 12 picks to make: Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons: This is basically the hottest match up of the week. The Packers and the Falcons are probably the two teams that are generating the most interest in the NFC when it comes to playoff talk and now, here they are. So in a head to head clash, who wins? Good question. The Falcons have ridden their luck quite a bit this season. Missed field goals, slipping defenders and last second comebacks have been a feature of many of Atlantas wins thus far, but the fact remains that the Falcons have a proven recipe for victory which they rolled out last week; play solid defense, take an early lead, then mix in their running game. The Packers also have their defense to thank this year. Their whole front 7 has been outstanding, and even the back end has held up pretty well, espcially with the emergence of CB Tramon Williams. Meanwhile on offense, Aaron Rodgers has had more time to throw this year and they've coped well with injuries to key players such as RB Ryan Grant and TE Jermichael Finley. All things considered, I like the Packers just a little more in this game. I know Matt Ryan has been exceptional at home in his tenure with the Falcons, but the Packers just bring a more complete team to this game than I think the Falcons have seen before. It'll be tight I imagine, but ultimately Green Bay will take home the W. Packers win. Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills: Credit where credit is due, the Bills have started to look like a competitive football team of late. But credit where credit is due, the Steelers came back in week 11 from a tough loss the week before to stuff a hot rolling Raiders side. I'm still sceptical of the Steelers. I think Roethlisberger -- like Tony Romo of the Cowboys -- can at times be a gift and a curse to his team. But they have a solid running game and they have a great defense. I think Pittsburgh nudges it slightly. Steelers win. Carolina Panthers @ Cleveland Browns: I was ready to give Cleveland this game like a bullet out of a gun. But then I found out something interesting; Jake Delhomme is penciled in to start for Cleveland. Now as bad as the Panthers are, Delhomme has built a reputation in the last 2.5 years or so for being his own teams worst nightmare. Just ask Carolina. The question then is thus; will Delhomme -- who hasn't played for a while now -- implode in the face of his old team mates? I'm tentatively going to suggest he can hold it together just long enough for the Browns to slip through with a win. Tentatively. Very Tentatively. Browns win. Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans: So, the first thing that came into my head when I saw this matchup was "Who will meltdown first; Randy Moss, new Titans starting QB Rusty Smith, or the Texans defense?". There's a strong likelyhood that the Titans will come out with Chris Johnson and try to run their way through Houston, looking to set up some easier play action passes later in the game for Smith. If that happens then I'm cautiously optomistic for the Titans. Their defense excels at rushing the passer, which is handy as Houston has switched back to giving the passing game priority, having seemingly decided that their very good rushing attack is just not sexy enough for TV any more. Therefore, Titans win. Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Giants: When the Jaguars are leading the AFC South, it's probably a good sign that either the NFL's planned parity scheme is working well, or simply that Football is heading towards a universe ending, catastrophic singularity. Thus it falls to the Giants to save the galaxy. Which in short means we're all f***ed. The Giants are many things, but reliable is not one of them. Their best running back Ahmad Bradshaw will be watching from the sidelines to start on Sunday, mainly due to his propensity for finishing great runs by coughing up the ball. In the mean time Eli Manning is struggling lately with a spilt personality syndrome that sees him regularly switch between immitating his brother Peyton... and immitating Jake Delhomme in "that" NFC playoff game. And so once again the Giants are relying on their defense to pull through. At last then a glimmer of hope, because the reality is that the Giants defense -- in particular the defensive line -- is still very good. Not always as good as it should be, but generally sufficient. Where the Giants always have problems is when their offense turns the ball over, but then this is Jacksonville, who despite their win-loss record are hardly the offensive juggernauts of the AFC. So maybe the galaxy is safe for another week? Only time will tell. Giants win. Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Redskins: Childress is gone and now it falls to Leslie Frazier to muster the troops and make something good happen. Being a defensive guy it's a possibility that Frazier will call on Adrian Peterson and the running game to lead the charge. It's not a guarantee, but it is a distinct possibility. That then could spell disaster for a Redskins team that hasn't looked good in a long while. I have no idea how Washington has mustered up the record that it has, but I'm guessing that they wont be extending that record anytime soon. As suspicious as I am of Favre, I have to say Vikings win. Miami Dolphins @ Oakland Raiders: Hmm (one of them). The Raiders were rolling right up until they ran into the steel curtain last week. They will have access to Richard Seymour this week after he escaped with just a fine from the incident involving a tremondously satisfying smack to the face of Ben Roethlisberger. But the problem is deciding who will start at quarterback. Both Jason Campbell and Bruce Gradkowski are available, and I have to say I'm more of a Gradkowski fan than a Campbell fan. Then we have Miami, that other team in the football game. Christ only knows what has happened to the Dolphins. They started so promisingly this season (except at home) and have at times shown flashes of brilliance (Cameron Wake). But the trouble seems to be that more often than not they show flashes of outright, pukingly horrid play. There just doesn't seem to be anything or anyone you can point to and say "that's going to save Miami's season". Sorry Dolphins, but I have to back a Raiders win. Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks: I simple refuse to take the Seahawks in a game against a half decent opponent, especially the way their offensive line has been playing lately, and even more especially given that they're up against a very stout Chiefs defense that is really starting to emerge in multiple areas. If Kansas can keep the ball in the hands of their two quality running backs Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles, while only selectively handing it over to Matt Cassel to throw, then good things will happen. Chiefs win. Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Baltimore Ravens: Now here's a match up that does intrigue me; RB LaGarrette Blount up against LB Ray Lewis. Tough meets tough. But what will probably be more decisive is the clash between Buc's QB Josh Freeman and Ravens safety Ed Reed. Reed has shown time and again he can toy with the minds of some of the best quarterbacks in the league. So how will Freeman fare? There's no guarantee's but I don't think the end result will be pretty. That said, the Buccaneers aren't too shabby on the defensive side themselves. They certainly have the ability to get after the Ravens offense and give them a run for their money. Joe Flacco has -- unlike his fellow draft class QB Matt Ryan -- failed to emerge properly as a consistent winning quarterback who can lead his team to greatness when all the other pieces are faltering. He should in theory have a good time against the likes of the plucky but sometimes mistake prone Cody Grimm, but you just never know with Flacco. All things considered my gut feeling is to go with the Ravens. Which is why I'm taking a Buccaneers win. Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears: Well, I had a theory once that when the New Orleans Saints finally played a tough defense coupled with a half-decent offense, that they would be torn apart. They then recently played the Steelers... and walked it. So now my next theory will face the litmus test; that the Bears are nowhere near where their record says they are. Hopefully the Eagles will expose the upstart Bears for what they truly are. Hopefully Michael Vick will drive up and down the field at will, squashing Chicago under foot like the dull looking mushroom that they are (??). But of course knowing my luck, DeSean Jackson and LeSean McCoy will combine to spill the rock three times, Vick will drop it twice more, and he'll finally throw a pick. But not just one, he'll throw three, all in the first half. All returned for touchdowns. It'll be the freakiest, flukiest victory you've ever seen as the Bears immitate what was for me the waking nightmare that was the 2009 Saints season. Then I'll have to sit and listen next year as people crown the Bears as one of the NFL's "elite" teams, even though we all know that's not the case. So with a lot of desperate hope (please God), I'm saying Eagles win. St. Louis Rams @ Denver Broncos: Ugh. The Rams on the road visiting the Broncos. It's a picking nightmare of the worst kind. A team that never wins on the road, against a team that never wins (not accounting for exaggeration). Simply put, I looked at the rosters and just went with the better overall team, hence Broncos win. San Diego Chargers @ Indianapolis Colts: Hmm (another one of them). The stats tell us something very simple; the Chargers are the best team in football, if not the best team of all time. They lead the NFL (or at least rank highly) in a host of important categories, on both offense and defense. Philip Rivers is on pace for record numbers. The Shawne Merriman-less defense is notching up sacks quicker than Cassanova (get it? How droll). But here is the odd thing; not only does the Chargers win/loss record tell a vastly different story, but they actually play better and win games when they're not out tearing up the record books. When Rivers throws for a bunch of yards, the Chargers tend to lose games because they dont score that many points. When Rivers's numbers are more modest (>200) he seems to throw more touchdowns and the Chargers win games like it was the easiest thing in the world. Something odd then is taking place that defies the laws of logic, football, and current statistical analysis of football. The Chargers are hitting quick strikes through Rivers, lumping in some rushing touchdowns and then just milking the clock on the back of their lead and their defense. But can they rinse and repeat said formula against the Colts? Can you really afford to sit back and say to Peyton Manning "c'mon then, let's see you come back from that 17 point deficit!". Normally the answer would be "no". Sitting on a 17 point lead against Peyton Manning is about as secure as sitting on the fence around the top of the Empire State building. But when you consider the Chargers defense and the fact they've been so prolific in sacks, they might just be able to crack it. Of course, if the rule against illegal pick plays was simply enforced then the Colts would be out of business by now, but I digress. Chargers win. San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals: I love Football. I can happily watch 9-10 hours of damn near back to back football. Then follow that up by watching more football and talking about football. And I love the 49ers. I paid the equivalent of about $120 for a ticket plus about $45 in travel just to watch the 49ers play the freakin' Broncos. But even I couldn't watch this game. Somewhere on Monday Night, there will be hundreds of thousands, dare I say millions of people who will watch this utter, abject excuse for a football game. Of course, having put it down so hard it's almost certain to turn out to be a 45-42 thriller of the most unmissable kind imaginable. I doubt it though. But who to pick? Unfortunately "nobody" is not a valid answer. Somehow then we must wade through the feeble excuse that is the 49ers offense, compare that with the feeble excuse that is the Cardinals defense, and then do the same in reverse. Alternatively I could just flip a coin and say "heads the 49ers win, tails the Cardinals win". It's heads. 49ers win. I'm off now to go and frolick in the early snow, so until Sundays recap, Have a great day everyone.

Thanksgiving picks and general thoughts.

So again time has conspired against me to rob me of the chance to assess the rookie watchlist in detail. Suffice to say that; - The first rounders are a mixed bag, - The middle rounders are mostly doing reasonably well, given that they're rookies taken in the middle rounds, - The late rounders/undrafted are largely filling out practice squads, Now, to a few things that are a little more immediately important: -- The League and the NFLPA have met regarding the ongoing labor discussions. Except that according to the NFL Network's Jason LaCanfora, all they really seemed to have discussed were the proposals for an 18-game schedule. Nice to see that they have their priorities straight. -- I watched a video of a Neuropsychologist (they study the brain in relation to psychological processes, oddly enough) talking about concussions. Inevitably the NFL came up. But what I can't understand is this; if concussions are such a big thing (they are) then why is the current helmet technology so abysmal? Let me start by saying that I understand that removing concussions 100% is probably an unachievable goal, but we can at least lessen their impact. Concussions are measured by acceleration/deceleration of the brain as it makes impact with the inside of the skull. Subsequently it is measured in "G"s, as in G-force. The average helmet-to-helmet collision in a football game is estimated to generate somewhere between 100-120g (why are we estimating? Can we not afford in this day an age to put some kind of accelerometer on/in a helmet?). Naturally then the concern is to reduce this impact. And to be honest, encasing the head in a soft inside layer and a hard outside layer is pretty much the stupidest thing you can do, short of encasing the head in a purely hard, thick layer. What is even more absurd/criminal, is that we already know this and we already have a design plan from which to draw inspiration. You get in it everyday. It is probably one of your most valuable possessions. It costs you a ton of money but you couldn't do what you do without it. I am of course talking about your car. Cars are dangerous. They travel at speeds that humans were never supposed to travel. They can deliver a tremendous impact when they crash. But they've also come along leaps and bounds safety wise in recent years. The part that we're interested in is the crumple zone. This is the section of your vehicle that is designed to essentially undergo a controlled collapse in the event of a high speed impact. As significant force is transmitted into the crumple zone, it begins to deform and absorb the Kinetic energy of the impact, allowing for a more gradual deceleration. The passengers are protected against the more severe impacts by a rigid central cabin structure. This is precisely what we need in modern football helmets. A rigid structure against the head to protect it with a softer, possibly deforming outer shell to reduce the effect of serious acceleration/deceleration. Maybe then there would be less bitching from the league about quarterbacks/defenseless receivers getting hit in the head. And think of the awesome replays, with chunks of spent helmet flying all over the place in High Definition....... ahem. And the safety factor of course. Time for my Thanksgiving Thursday night picks I think, starting with; New England Patriots @ Detroit Lions: Holy crap! The Patriots are on a roll. Deion Branch may not have the speed or the size of Rand Moss, but critically for the Patriots he does run every route in the tree. This makes him a more versatile asset up and down the field. With the additional emergence of the two rookie tight ends (Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski) and of RB Danny Woodhead, coupled with the Patriots seemingly more balanced offense this year -- both in play-calling and execution -- they are close to being back to their fearsome best. Will they put up 30 points a game? On occasion. For the most part though, it is about ruthless efficiency right now. Oh, and the Lions are also playing in this game. Unfortunately for them. Patriots win. New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys: I f...reakin' knew a game like this would come up this weekend. Here is the dilemma I see from a pick perspective; the Saints are ok, but they're not the Saints from 2009, meanwhile the Cowboys have put up two good wins in a row after dumping Wade Phillips, but those wins were against a so-so Giants team and.... the Detroit Lions (what's with the Lions bashing today?). So will the Cowboys keep up the offensive show we've become accustomed to in the last couple of games? Have the Saints seen enough on film to catch out the newly reborn Cowboys (who've gone a little outside their normal box recently in search of big plays)? Has the Dallas secondary really learnt to tackle yet? When are Saints fans going to learn to spell? When will Saints fans finally admit that their defense was allowed to get away with murder in the NFC Championship game? And that if they're honest, they kind of lucked their way into the big game? All important questions. Sadly I'm not sure as I have the answers. So, stab in the dark time..... I'm going with the home team. Cowboys win. Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets: Given the "Bungals" showing last week, I really can't take them over the Jets. Yes, I know the Jets have scraped through their recent games by the skin of their teeth, but that is better than getting your ass handed to you by the 2010 Buffalo Bills. That said, I'm not sure as the Jets record tells us everything we need to know about them. Their pass rush seems to have stumbled a little lately. Mark Sanchez might be earning a reputation for being cool at the end of games, but what about the rest of the contest? And what happened to the Jets running game? Still, they're playing the Bengals. Jets win. Have a great Thanksgiving everyone.

Monday Night Football

With the Monday Night Game done, it's time to look at how I got on with my final pick of the week: Patriots 17 @ Saints 38 -- Trust the Patriots to mash up my final pick. And listen, no I'm not about to bow before the mighty Saints and say "hey, they're the best". Yeah, they beat the Pats, but go back and watch the game film. I don't know what Pats team was out there in New Orleans, but it wasn't the one any of us would recognise. Take Tom Brady for example. 21/36, 237 yards, no TD's and 2 INT's. For Brady that's really bad. But the worst offenders were the Pats defense. Devery Henderson looked like he was going to fall over in shock during the second quarter as he was left so open it was unreal. I don't think blown coverage really does it justice. I dunno, I'm just speechless. Now I know I bang on with the hate against the Saints each week, but trust me, there is a point. I know Drew Brees is one of the premier QB's in the league. He is easily one of the top three, along with Peyton Manning and Brett Favre. As a team, the Saints have done really well in all three phases of the game. But the response to all this has been symptomatic of NFL analysis over the last 10 years or so. The Saints are being hailed as the greatest team in football right now, when they're simply not. It's another case of the over hype that is rife among sports broadcasters. Let's look at it realistically. The Saints division has been woeful this year, contributing to easy wins. The Dolphins practically gave the game back to New Orleans after destroying them in the first half. And now this result which will again overly inflate the reputation of the Saints, despite the Patriots being dire. The biggest and best example of this over hype is Darren Sharper. After his late pick, the defensive players were fanning him and treating him like a hero. That's understandable. They're his team mates and they are joking around. But by tomorrow all the sports broadcasters across the land will be kneeling at Sharpers feet, heralding him for what was essentially just being too slow and lazy to keep up with the play, which left him short when Brady's pass didn't make it. He got lucky, again, and now he's going to be proclaimed as some kind of defensive wizard. God it makes me sick just thinking about it. And probably the worst bit about all this is that the Patriots previously mentioned appalling D will go quietly un-noticed. This whole debacle will be put down to how great the Saints were, blah, blah. But the fact is that on Saturday I made a point about the Saints O. I mentioned that they get most of their big gains and scores going down the middle. I was expecting the normally excellently coached Patriots to see it and shut it down. They didn't. Big time. Just watch the game film. The Pats let Brees and his receivers have the middle all to themselves. They didn't bring enough pressure right up the A gap to force Brees to move either. It just sucked as a defensive performance. And this is what I love about football. Every week certain match ups favour certain teams, and every week pundits will hype the crap out of people that don't warrant it. And the most bizarre thing about this is the unlikely candidates who have the best shot of beating the Saints should they face them. Namely, the Steelers, the Ravens, the Cowboys and the Eagles. None of these teams has exactly lit up the world this season. But all of these teams would have a good shot of beating the Saints (The Cowboys actually get a chance in week 15). Why? 'Cos they all bring great pressure right up the middle. Take the Cowboys for example. They are hardly over flowing with defensive talent, but Jay Ratliff should get in the face of Drew Brees when they meet, and push Brees out of the pocket. Coupled with the potential of their ground game should they chose to use it (which knowing my luck they wont), they have a real chance of chewing the clock, stopping the Saints ground game and forcing Brees to get mobile and try and win games throwing 40 times, which simply wont work. Ahh, that feels better now I've ranted off on one. Tomorrow; Extra Credit.

Week 12 NFL results and recap.

With all of today's games now done, it's time to recap all the Sunday action from Week 12 of the NFL: Buccaneers 17 @ Falcons 20 -- The injury to Matt Ryan had Falcons fans holding their collective breath. As Chris Redman stepped onto the field, naturally everyone was a little nervous. But fear not as he threw 23/41, for 243 yards and 2 TD's. Not bad. If the Falcons can just remember that they have three good backs to play with then maybe they will recover some semblance of pride from an otherwise under par season. The Buccaneers just looked like, well the Buccaneers. Dolphins 14 @ Bills 31 -- Yesterday when I made my pick I was worried that the Dolphins might turn into the Panthers (I hate the Panthers) and try to throw to win. I was confident however that they would realise the Bills have the worse rush defense in all of football and that throwing the ball with essentially a rookie QB against dangerous safety Jairus Byrd would be stupid!! Unfortunately, I was wrong, as Chad Henne's 31 pass attempts and three interceptions prove. The Dolphins did run it 27 times with Ricky Williams (who added another pick on a Wildcat play) but for some reason didn't think to make more use of Lex Hilliard or Pat White. Meanwhile the star of the show was Ryan Fitzpatrick. His 246 yards with a TD didn't stun, but his 7 carries for 50 yards and a TD helped keep the Bills ticking. Redskins 24 @ Eagles 27 -- The Eagles found their run game again while the Redskins lost theirs. Again. Couple that with big plays in the passing game and some superb ball hawking by Asante Samuel and you have a recipe for an Eagles win. They'll probably be a bit worried about having to constantly fight from behind though. Seahawks 27 @ Rams 17 -- Justin Forsett continues to impress for the Seahawks and amazingly won the battle of the running backs, even though Steven Jackson was on the other side. The fact that the Seahawks contained Jackson to 89 yards off 23 carries is probably the most miraculous thing about this game. Panthers 6 @ Jets 17 -- At times like this, I'm reminded of the scene in the film "Speed" when Dennis Hoppers' character says to that piece of wood, sorry, Keanu Reeves, "You think you're so smart huh Jack?". It's like he was saying that to me personally, after I claimed yesterday that the Panthers would stick to their normal tradition of being run heavy one week and pass heavy the next. This week they were due to be run heavy and win. But they craftily tried to break the trend and be pass heavy.... and threw 4 picks and lost. 34 passes against a mere 25 runs. Honestly, it's like they conspire deliberately to screw up my picks. Worse, the Jets did the opposite. Normally they are so excited about Mark Sanchez that they abandon their rushing attack too and end up throwing picks a plenty. But instead they threw just 18 times against 39 rushes. I think they were colluding with the Panthers to do me over. I hate the Panthers. Browns 7 @ Bengals 16 -- Brady Quinn went aerial this week... and completed just 15/34 for a nice, round 100 yards. At least he didn't get picked off this week. Carson Palmer meanwhile continues to slump a little, completing just 13/24 for 10 more yards than Quinn and a TD. The big story was the Bengals rushing attack. Bernard Scott chalked up 18 carries for 87 yards and Larry Johnson notched 107 yards off 22 carries. Proof that the Bengals O-line can make anyone look good. Colts 35 @ Texans 27 -- Honestly, it wouldn't be the 2009 Colts unless they waited till the last quarter to pull out a win. Both QB's were razor sharp in their accuracy and the Texans can take a lot of promising things out of this game. Sadly a W isn't one of them. With the Jaguars losing to the 49ers this win wraps up the AFC South for the Colts. Chiefs 14 @ Chargers 43 -- The Chargers went mental again by rushing the ball with 8 different people. The only person that mattered though was LaDainian Tomlinson, who clocked up another 2 touchdowns on his all time tally. Add another two through the air courtesy of Philip Rivers to Antonio Gates and you have a rout. The Chiefs look like their offense is finally ready to come off life support and start breathing for itself..... but they need to draft big on defense next year or they'll be spending another season in the morgue. Jaguars 3 @ 49ers 20 -- There is a golden rule in San Francisco. That rule is to only win when I pick them to get beaten badly. The Jaguars hardly helped me out, determined to each week give Rashad Jennings his mandatory two carries and nothing more, while confining Maurice Jones-Drew to just 15 carries (which he converted into 75 yards). David Garrard didn't do too bad passing (25/36, 307 yards) but he failed to find the end zone even once, which.... is kinda bad. Alex Smith found it twice however. But still, he threw the ball 41 times and hit just 27, for 232 yards. It took most of the game to pass before they decided to give Frank Gore anymore than just 10 carries, finally finishing with 16. This is a RB who not long ago ran for over 1,600 yards in one season. As good as the progress of Smith, Crabtree, Davis and Walker has been, the 49ers key weapon is being discarded by the wayside. I'd want out if I was him. Bears 10 @ Vikings 36 -- If it wasn't for the 1 in their loss column, the Vikings would be the front runners to win the big prize. It's that simple. And in my opinion, they are. Favre is almost flawless these days. The weapons he has around him are stunning. And their defense is more than a match for most offenses these days. Contrast that with the Bears. Cutler hands out interceptions like confetti, has few real tools to work with, no run game for support, and the Bears defense couldn't stop a 3 year old from rushing for 100 yards against them. It really was a game of opposites. Cardinals 17 @ Titans 20 -- The big concern for the Titans recently has been whether Vince Young can grab his team by the horns and drag it kicking and screaming across the finish line. Not just managing a game, but taking it over. Today, that question was answered. 27/43, 387 yards and a TD. Most importantly, the TD came right at the death, boosting Youngs clutch credentials. After the score the whole team was celebrating with each other, congratulating themselves on a hard won victory. The team spirit and camaraderie they displayed gives you a glimpse into why they are now 5-6 and possibly a glimpse into why they may finish the regular season 10-6. With Chris Johnson chalking up 154 yards and a TD on the ground as well, that's a mean looking offense to compliment a mean looking defense. If not this year, then next....... Steelers 17 @ Ravens 20 -- The Steelers and the Ravens went toe to toe in a physical, grind it out type of defensive contest that I just loved every minute of. They were determined to copy the above score though, even to the extent of taking it to overtime. And while I picked the Steelers to win I'm comforted by the fact that they nearly did even without 'Big Ben', and that my analysis of the Ravens was spot on. They just can't generate any meaningful offense lately. Every now and again they'll spontaneously explode with a big play, but most of the time they just tick along, chugging and choking like a battered old Ford. The Steelers have issues without Roethlisberger. Dennis Dixon was ok, he even made some good runs (one for a TD, one hauled back for a penalty). Ultimately though, either he or the coaching staff were nervous about him drop back passing. The almost complete lack of a pass threat and the under utilisation of play-action meant the Ravens could stack up heavy on the run without too much fear of getting torched. They were right. So, that's all the games covered until the Patriots play (read: beat) the Saints. Including the games from Thursday, I'm 10-5 this week for picks. Here's hoping the Pats will make it 11.

Week 12 NFL picks

So here we are, as promised, with my Week 12 NFL picks: Buccaneers@ Falcons: Even without Michael Turner, I still like the Falcons in this one. The Buc's may next year be a very good passing team. Their trouble is that their QB is still learning and they have no ground game to ease the pressure. Not expecting this to be a blowout, but it might be a more comfortable victory than the Falcons have been used to this season. Falcons win. Dolphins@ Bills: Mismatch time, i.e. the Dolphins rushing attack versus the Bills rush defense. I think Ricky Williams is more than the Bills can handle. But then, I often say the same thing about DeAngelo Williams of the Panthers and yet they'll come right back and throw the ball all game (I hate them Panthers). Unfortunately the Dolphins have a habit of doing the same. It was this approach that cost them the game against the Saints and this time it could cost them heavily again, as Bills safety Jarius Byrd leads the league in interceptions. Still, Buffalo has struggled to generate anything close to resembling an effective offense and against the Dolphins, I expect that to continue. Dolphins win. Redskins@ Eagles: Ugh, always a tricky picky. The thing with the Eagles is that one week they come out and toast a team for 400+ yards. Next week they'll come out and struggle to get a first down. Combine this with their suspect redzone offense and you have a recipe for disaster. Combine it with the Redskins highly rated pass defense and things begin to take an apocalyptic turn. But then you know, you just know that the Redskins offense will let you down if you take them. I'm going with the Eagles, but it wouldn't come as a shock if they rack up a ton of yards through the air and yet just a field goal or something stupid like that. Eagles win. Seahawks@ Rams: I flipped a coin and it came out Seahawks. In all seriousness both team are bad, but the Rams are just slightly worse overall. Seahawks win. Panthers@ Jets: Every week the Panthers conspire and scheme and machinate and use any other adjective that describes under handed tactics, in order to ruin my picks. Well this week I've got them in a bind. Every week they do the opposite of what I say. When I say they'll run, they pass. When I say they're just gonna pass all game, they run (I hate the Panthers). Last week they passed it up. That means this week they'll run it all over the Jets. And so this week I'm backing them to run the ball and win the game. That, and I think Mark Sanchez will throw 4 or 5 more picks. Panthers win. Browns@ Bengals: Ha ha, Bengals win. Colts@ Texans: This one is tough to choose. I Know the Colts are undefeated and they've played really well so far, but every week they just seem to scrape past people. As odd as this may sound, I think their offense doesn't do enough to help a great D. Yeah, Peyton Manning, who everyone is calling to be the MVP this season (don't get me started on the MVP award), doesn't produce enough offense. They just can't seem to clock up enough points. And for that reason, I'm putting my head on the block and backing...... the Colts. I just don't think the Texans have enough to overcome the boys from Indy. Colts win. Chiefs@ Chargers: Chargers win. San Diego is flying lately. The Chiefs are sort of ambling along, just starting to find their feet now Larry Johnson is gone. Neither team astounds on defense, but the Chargers have the punch to outscore their opponents in this one. Chargers win. Jaguars@ 49'ers: Oh boy, my boys in San Francisco have a tough test in hand. Both teams can run the ball, both teams can pass it. Trouble is, San Fran practically refuses to run the ball this year. And unfortunately, the better WR Michael Crabtree gets, the less inclined the 49'ers are to run. So, all things considered, I think the Jaguars get this. Jaguars win. Bears@ Vikings: The latest injury updates put Vikings RB Adrian Peterson as being questionable. Even that wont stop the men in purple from prevailing this weekend. The Bears rely on Jay Cutler to win games for them. With Jared Allen tearing off the edge, that doesn't bode well for Chicago. Brett Favre should have no trouble cutting up the Bears secondary and even if Peterson doesn't play, Chester Taylor is an adequate backup. Vikings win. Cardinals@ Titans: Question marks hang over Card's QB Kurt Warner. Even if he plays though, I think the Titans take this. Their ground game has taken things to the next level recently and their pass defense will be salivating at the prospect of a Cardinals team that will likely throw the ball 80% of the time. Titans win. Steelers@ Ravens: Ben Roethlisberger is the latest of a number of important players who may not see much, if any action on Sunday. Still, the Ravens offense that was so highly praised at the start of the season has withered and disappeared of late. The Steelers without 'Big' Ben should still be able to run the ball effectively with a three headed monster of Parker, Moore and Mendenhall. "Should" being the operative word. Whether they will or not is a different matter. I think they will. I hope they will. Steelers win. Patriots@ Saints: Big time test for the Saints. Apparently they're been moaning that some people still don't take them seriously. That might have something to do with the fact that they keep barely scraping past average teams. Several opponents have done themselves out of wins over the Saints through suspicious play calling. The reason I, like many people, still don't rate the Saints is because they've not really been tested by a solid team with excellent coaching staff. Well now the wait is over. And the Saints hit it at a bad time, as CB's Jabari Greer and Tracey Porter are still out (to my knowledge). Expect Welker to have another big day as the Pats try and keep Drew Brees off the field. And with Brees's tendency to look for completions over the middle of the field, expect the well organised Pats to have that scouted and for LB Leigh Bodden to have another week of filling his pockets with picks. Patriots win. So there we have it. Another week of educated (sort of) guesses and hopefully another week of wins. I'm already 2-1 this week after Thursday Night Football, so fingers crossed for another big showing. And as always, if you're enjoying what you read, feel free to share the knowledge with as many people as you can. The more the merrier.

Thursday Night recap

Now that Thursday nights games are done, it's time to have a peek and see how my picks got on. Packers 34 @ Lions 12: I had a feeling it might end like this. Basically three players made the difference; Stafford, Rodgers and Woodson. Stafford put his excellent performance from Sunday behind him and promptly threw 4 interceptions. Turning the ball over like that has plagued Stafford all season, you just have to hope he will get better with time, which I think he will. It also doesn't help to only get two completions to your best receiver, Calvin Johnson. Last week Johnson caught 7 passes for 161 yards. Use him. As for Aaron Rodgers, he got the ball to his two best receivers a combined 11 times for 195 yards and a TD. That's the way to do it. Rodgers finished just two yards shy of 350 yards passing with 3 TDs and no picks. And finally, probably the most impressive of them all was Packers CB Charles Woodson who despite being 333 years old managed to notch up 6 tackles, 1 assist, 1 sack, 2 interceptions and a forced fumble. Nice job. 1-0. Raiders 7 @ Cowboys 24: Yesterday I said "..... the Cowboys do have the kind of rushing attack that could rip Oakland apart, but they just don't have the balls to say no to Tony Romo so expect that great triple team to be under utilized once again". Uhm, it looks like Wade Phillips and his crew grew the required balls overnight. Felix Jones and Tashard Choice combined alone for over 130 yards on just 10 carries, with Marion Barber tacking on another 61. I never expected the Raiders to do anything special, I just didn't think the 'Boys would either. Boy was I wrong. Romo even found the courage to largely ignore Roy Williams in the open field and go for his two best receivers (Austin & Witten) instead, who paid him back handsomely. 1-1. Giants 6 @ Broncos 26: Again I'd like to quote myself from yesterday "And that's the issue I have with the Giants in this game. They don't/won't run the ball enough. Instead they put it all on Eli and expect him to roll out a repeat of his Superbowl performance. And it's not gonna happen". Psychic or what? 40 passes, completed just 24, and only 15 carries for his backs. That's always bad news. Eli is not that good. Meanwhile I had a feeling (as also mentioned yesterday) that the Broncos might take some shots down field against a banged up Giants secondary. And they did. Brandon Marshall was displaying some superb one handed skills as the Broncos offense finally found some life again. 2-1. Not a bad start pick wise, but there's plenty of action coming up this week to either boost my tally or tear me down. Tomorrow I'll tell you exactly which teams I'm backing.

Thursday Night Football picks

It's Wednesday night/Thursday morning, which can only mean one thing....... Thursday Night Football picks!!! Packers @ Detroit : Well, what can you say? Detroit has, without doubt, the worst pass defense I've seen in a long time. The Packers meanwhile have probably one of the best overall receiving corps in the league. And to cap it all, they're just finding their running game again. Last time these two teams met the Lions were missing QB Matthew Stafford, and by a cruel twist of fate they may be without him again for this game. I'm sorry Lions fans, I can't see how your team is gonna compete in this one. Packers win. Raiders @ Cowboys : Hmmm, not as bad a match up as you might think. Yes the Raiders suck, but so do the Cowboys at the moment. Expect the men in Silver and Black to put shutdown corner Nnamdi Asomugha on Cowboys receiver Miles Austin, and then get pressure on Tony Romo with trade scoop Richard Seymour. To counter, the Cowboys do have the kind of rushing attack that could rip Oakland apart, but they just don't have the balls to say no to Tony Romo so expect that great triple team to be under utilized once again. I think, as scary as this might be, that the Raiders might actually win this game. Raiders win (did I just say that?). Giants @ Broncos : Everyone is jumping on the New York bandwagon. And I'm not really sure why. They're not all that special of late. Last week they barely scraped a win against what's been a pretty average Falcons team this season. The only down point everyone is moaning about is the lack of production from their run game. Now I'm sorry, but it's obvious that it's not for a want of trying. The trouble is that the Giants don't run the ball anywhere near as often as they pass. You can't post gaudy numbers if you don't get the ball. Just ask Frank Gore or Terrell Owens. Why isn't the Panthers rushing attack leading the league? Is it because DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart have gone cold? No, it's because the Panthers just love Jake Delhomme (I hate them Panthers). And that's the issue I have with the Giants in this game. They don't/won't run the ball enough. Instead they put it all on Eli and expect him to roll out a repeat of his Superbowl performance. And it's not gonna happen. Especially against two of the best defenders out there; Broncos Safety Brian Dawkins and Cornerback Champ Bailey. And what's more, people have been hitting the Broncos offense hard for not taking deep shots. But they did against the Redskins. And I think they will against this banged up Giants secondary. It's a bit of a hail mary still, but I'm taking the Broncos. Broncos win. And there is even a little bit of time left for me to shell out some extra, extra credit: Matthew Stafford (Lions) -- I know he already got some yesterday, but that's why it's called extra, extra credit. And I've now had the full chance to check out those last two plays from Sunday. The NFL Network did a great job putting up a video on NFL.com of Stafford wired for sound. What you realise listening to the things he said is that the guy is tough. Physically, but most importantly, mentally. He has the physical attributes, we know that. He will get better at reading coverage and making plays as time goes on. But that toughness he showed will endear him to his team more than any TD pass. It's the kind of thing that separates the men from the boys, and the Matthew Stafford's from the JaMarcus Russell's.