2011 Week two picks

Evening. Or morning. Possibly afternoon. It all depends on when you're viewing this. For me it's 04:24 ZULU, or Greenwich Mean Time as it's otherwise known. Such is the joy of being a Football fan who lives in the UK and must subsequently live a moderately anti-social lifestyle in order to indulge in a life long passion. But there you go, everyone chooses their own path and all that McGuffin.

So, today I want to do my picks for this weekend, but much depends on the need for sleep and the availability of strong coffee.

Before I do though, I want to pick up the whole Steelers/Ravens spat that has been going on this week, with the Steelers accusing the Ravens of using illegal blocks and the Ravens saying that's rubbish, everything they've done is perfectly legal. The story was picked up by ProFootballTalk.com and that's the only reason I'm interested in it myself, because I enjoy shitting on Mike Florio and proving him wrong (just purely for my own entertainment), and not because of any sympathies with irritating Steelers fans who mundanely insist their team is still dominant, despite the fact they lost the Super Bowl last February.

The story was originally reported on that site by Michael David Smith. There was a follow up post later in which Ravens Head Coach John Harbaugh explained that the blocks were;

"... 100 percent legal, and it’s 100 percent ethical, and there is no danger whatsoever in the way the block is being executed because it’s in front."

Which is a straight lie. The blocks in question were illegal and it's precisely because they were not executed in front. Of course that doesn't stop one of the biggest blowhards in the mainstream media - Mike Florio - from pitching in;

"But the Steelers, and folks like ESPN’s Merril Hoge, apparently don’t understand the chop block rule,"

Now strictly speaking, the Steelers have got the rule regarding 'Chop Blocks' wrong. But as a journalist who is attacking the integrity and knowledge of the Steelers and of fellow journalist Merril Hoge, not to mention trying to take a smug stance of superior knowledge in all things rule based, it beehoves Florio to go and watch the film and make sure there that everything is in order before commenting. Which is something even an amateur like myself did.

The problem is this; there was a foul being committed by the Ravens, it just wasn't specifically 'chop blocking'. Whether the Steelers just didn't know the correct terminology or not, they at least knew something was wrong and they were right. Still following this? While it is perfectly legal for two adjacent offensive linemen to high/low a defensive player (which is where the argument over chop blocks stems from), what those offensive linemen are not allowed to do is hit a player below the knees, from behind.

This is what is known as 'clipping'. The official explanation, according to the NFL's own website is;

Clipping: Throwing the body across the back of an opponent’s leg or hitting him from the back below the waist while moving up from behind unless the opponent is a runner or the action is in close line play.

The observant among you will jump on that last sentence about 'close line play' (the less observant should stop yacking on the phone to that person who you don't need to be talking to right now). But if you follow the link above to NFL.com and their definitions of the various terms, you'll see close line play right underneath clipping;

Close Line Play: The area between the positions normally occupied by the offensive tackles, extending three yards on each side of the line of scrimmage. It is legal to clip above the knee

I underlined the final sentence because that's what's important. Clipping is only legal in close line play when the clip occurs above the knee. Below it is still a foul. And this - friends - ok, acquaintances - is where we come to picture time. Basically the best picture I could get is taken from a clip of the NFL Networks 'Playbook' show. This is merely a screen capture of one of their videos, to which they obviously own all rights etc. All I've done is insert a red circle in order to draw your eyes to the correct location.

What you can hopefully see is Steelers Nose Tackle Casey Hampton getting his legs taken out from under him by the Ravens right guard who takes a shot at Hamptons ankles. That - my acquaintances - is what Hampton and the Steelers were complaining about. And that is indeed an illegal block.

The moral of the story? Watch the video first Florio, before you make one of your stupid, smug, sweeping assertions. Unlike a certain blogger I know. What you might also be able to see in the picture is that I refuse to use Akamai's "high quality" video service, basically on the principle that their standard quality service is shit and plagued with glitches, so I can only presume the high quality videos will be the same, they'll just be a bit sharper and take three times as long to load.

Or in other words - fuck that and on with the picks.

Raiders @ Bills; A tricky pick right out of the gate. On the one hand you have a Bills team that went on a riot week one and destroyed the Chiefs. But you also have a Raiders team who ran the ball really well against the Broncos and are certain to not abandon the run so quickly as the Chiefs did in week one. The question then becomes - for me - whether you think the Bills can stop the run and.... I think they can. I really do. I think they've done a lot of good work drafting and preparing that defensive front since Chan Gailey took over as a Head Coach and I think their passing game is leagues ahead of the Raiders. Bills win.

Packers @ Panthers; The Cam Newton express is on display at home for the first time in the regular season and there is a lot of optimism abounding, both in the locker room, the stands and around the media. Cam Newton threw for 400+ yards in his first appearance and showed a number of desirable traits. Well that's all well and good, but I happen to believe he also showed a number of undesirable traits as well and that the Packers defense is going to be a much tougher nut to crack. Mix in Aaron Rodgers ripping up the Carolina D and I'm afraid I'm going to have to put the brakes on the Newton express for one week. Packers win.

Chiefs @ Lions; I have to ask myself one thing - do I believe that Todd Haley will finally lean on his rushing attack? The answer is no. And even then, I think the Lions D-line is good enough, just, to keep that rushing attack in check and allow Matthew Stafford to open up a lead against a vulnerable Chiefs secondary. Lions win.

Browns @ Colts; Did you watch last weeks Colts game? If you did, then you wont even need an explanation for this. Browns win.

Buccaneers @ Vikings; The Minnesota Vikings come in 2011 and they entertain a Buccaneers team that is angry over its week one loss to the Lions. I think the Buccaneers will run it more this week and frankly I don't think they'll have to do too much to beat the Vikings. The Vikings offensive line was horrendous in week one and the Buccaneers have more than enough playmakers on their defense to expose that weakness. Buccaneers win.

Bears @ Saints; Tough one. The Bears had a great start to the season, certainly way beyond the expectations I had for them. The Saints lost to an explosive Packers team, but gave the Packers D a good licking at times just to let them know they were still in the game. Honestly, I think the Bears have been skating on thin ice for a long time now and this is the game where the ice breaks, letting Drew Brees and company flood that secondary for some big points. Saints win.

Jaguars @ Jets; As impressed with the Jaguars as I was in week one, and as much as I dislike Mark Sanchez for his inconsistency, I still can't look beyond New York in this game. I just don't think the Jaguars have the offensive line to contain Bart Scott and the Jets pass rush, nor do the Jaguars have the ability to do the reverse, with their own pass rush being too weak I think to seriously hamper the Jets offense. Jets win.

Seahawks @ Steelers; Pete Carrol brings his Seahawks side east across the states to face a Pittsburgh team that is licking its wounds after being mauled by the Ravens. I can't see the Steelers giving Seattle anything less than 100% as a result. They're going to be angry in this game and much more focused during practice this week. I think the Seahawks don't have the tools in any phase of offense to do much damage to Pittsburgh and I think their defense lacks enough bite to really expose a Steelers line that was shown last week to be a bit ropey. Steelers win.

Ravens @ Titans; The Titans offense looked bad last week. Really bad. I can't see that improving against the Ravens. Ray Lewis, Haloti Ngata, Terrell Suggs and the rest of the Ravens front seven are well placed to pour the misery on Chris Johnson and Matt Hasselbeck, while the Titans defensively really don't have the speed to get after Joe Flacco, or a single player who can really contain Ray Rice. Ravens win.

Cardinals @ Redskins; Both these teams got big wins in week one, but only one team really asserted itself. The Redskins handed a butt kicking to an otherwise pretty good Giants team, meanwhile the Cardinals somewhat scraped through against the Panthers, relying on a special teams return to wrap it up. I think Rex Grossman is good enough to exploit the weaknesses in the Cardinals secondary, I think the Redskins O-line is good enough to contain the Cardinals pass rush and to overpower their rush defense, while the Redskins pass rush is well poised to exploit the Cardinals weaker O-line. Redskins win.

Cowboys @ 49ers; As much as I would love to see my 49ers pound the Cowboys into the floor, that is patently a pipe dream. Offensively the 49ers might just be one of the worst teams in the NFL right now. It's a close run thing between them, the Manning-less Colts and the Tavaris Jackson lead Seahawks. And as much as we all like to bash Tony Romo, he did have a good start to last Sunday Nights game. That should be all he needs to put this one beyond the reach of San Francisco. Cowboys win.

Bengals @ Broncos; John Fox will trot out for a second home game with the Broncos, this time looking for a much better result with Kyle Orton still at the head of his offense, and hopefully without his fans starting up any Tebow chants. The Bengals will be looking to capitalise on a great team start to the season and impressive individual performances from both rookie quarterback Andy Dalton and his back up Bruce Gradkowski. Personally I think the Bengals running game will be a little too strong for the Broncos and that could tip the balance of an otherwise tight game. Bengals win.

Texans @ Dolphins; Despite their terrible start to the season from a scoreline perspective, the Dolphins actually did ok on offense. They certainly looked improved compared to last year. Chad Henne was more confident and the receiving corps looked a little more in tune. Is that enough to beat a Texans team that has markedly improved its defense? I'm not sure. The Dolphins O-line should stand up to the pressure a little better than the Colts did last week, but can Miami's defense get after Matt Schaub and slow the Texans passing attack? I'm going to take a punt here and go out on a limb by saying yes. Dolphins win.

Chargers @ Patriots; No doubt, Phillip Rivers is a great quarterback. No doubt the Chargers have a great offense all round, and a pretty good defense. But good enough to beat the Patriots? I mean Tom terrific? Tom Brady? The three rings Brady, golden boy of the NFL? Now that's a tough ask. The Patriots pass protection was rock solid for the most part against the Dolphins and Brady looked as good as he's ever been. The form book would say take New England and I think that's exactly what I'm going to do, though I do think the Chargers will keep this one close. Patriots win.

Eagles @ Falcons; Mike Vick returns to Atlanta, which might have been special were it not for the fact that he's already done this once since signing with the Eagles. Question is, can he come away with a win? Last week he really struggled at times throwing the football, yet still managed to generate enough big plays to push his team through to victory. The Eagles defense meanwhile was very vulnerable against the run, which means their is a mismatch in favour of the Falcons back Michael Turner. Will the Falcons keep it on the ground and chew some clock? Can their offensive line actually pass protect this week? I'm going out on another limb here and saying yes. Falcons win.

Rams @ Giants; Both had losing starts, with the Rams losing to the explosive Eagles offense and the Giants losing to Rex Grossman. No offense Rex. Now when I look at this game the first thing I see is the Giants pass rush. I see guys like Jason Pierre-Paul ripping across the line and making short work of the Rams O-line. I see Eli Manning as just good enough to expose the holes in the Rams secondary. And I see a home victory for New York. Giants win.

I'll be back either Sunday night or Monday night to share my thoughts on the weekends games. Till then, have a beer. Relax. And enjoy week two of the NFL season.

2011 Pre-season; week 2 (Thursday)

So, two games from pre-season week 2 in the books. Let's have a look.

It started with the Patriots at the Buccaneers and boy did the Buccaneers get a wake up call. Their firsts versus the Patriots firsts resulted in a game that wasn't even close as the Pats put up 28 unanswered points as their offense cut through the Buc's D, while their defense poured all over the Buc's O-line. It was the footballing equivalent of a massacre.

Tom Brady finished 11/19 for 118 yards and 2 TD's, having a few miscues, but nothing serious. Chad Ochocinco got his first action in a Patriot's jersey, scoring a TD and taking a major hit along the way. Rookie QB Ryan Mallet was 9/14 for 71 yards and 1 interception. Naturally people were crying about the fact that he threw a pick, but shit, seriously? One pick and other than that he's looked very solid, certainly the best among this years crop of quarterbacks.

The Patriots running game got motoring again, largely due to the fact that the Buccaneers D-line was getting handled just as roughly as its offensive line. On defense, Patriots linebacker Jerod Mayo had two sacks and looked every bit the lynch pin of that defense.

As for the Buccaneers, I think it's a case of try again next week? Josh Freeman went just 5/10 for 33 yards. Josh Johnson did slightly better, 6/17 for 105 yards and a pick. C'mon Johnson, you're better than this. Third year backup Rudy Carpenter was 6/10 for 68 yards.

But the Buc's have little to be pleased about. The simple fact is that they were man handled at every turn throughout the game by a clearly superior side. They may be "Youngry", but the young aspect definitely stands out more than the hungry part. Lots of coaching work to do in the coming season.

Next the Philadelphia "Dream Team" Eagles visited Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers and were in for something of a shock. Recently the Eagles players have been trying to play down the "Dream Team" moniker and Thursday night we perhaps found out why.

Mike Vick; 5/12 for 47 yards and 3 INT's. Wow. That was pretty bad. Part of the issue was - as you might expect - the Steelers pass rush. But a big chunk of it was just Vick making bad decisions (no jokes please). One of the interceptions was just ridiculous, as Vick tried to thread the needle between about five defenders. And that seemed to be the major problem. Instead of just occasionally eating a sack or throwing the ball away, Vick was determined to make plays happen that just weren't there.

Still, he got a sweet hit in after a pass was tipped and then picked off by Troy Polamalu. Not sure if Andy Reid will be quite as impressed.

His replacement was Vince Young, who went on to finish 5/8 for 34 yards and an interception. Finally the situation was partially rescued (albeit against the third string) by Mike Kafka, who threw 14/19 for 160 yards and 2 TD's. Running back Ronnie Brown got in on the action late and had some effect, as did rookie Dion Lewis (ahhh!) with 2 carries for 19 yards and 2 receptions for another 48.

On defense some new arrivals made their impact, with Jason Babin, Cullen Jenkins and Anthony Hargrove all recording sacks, but outside of that the Eagles D didn't look all that impressive, being victimised by a succession of Steelers quarterbacks.

It started with Ben Roethlisberger, who went 8/12 for 125 yards and 2 TD's, while looking every bit like a hall of fame quarterback. Yeah. He just seems to have such a command of that offense, while bringing great strength and calm under pressure to the table as well. Next up was Byron Leftwich; 4/7 for 67 yards and a TD. Then Dennis Dixon; 8/11 for 90 yards.

Of note outside of the quarterback position for the Steelers was new receiver Jerricho Cotchery, who ended with 2 catches for 49 yards and a TD. On defense the Steelers actually produced just one sack, but the elusiveness of Michael Vick had much to do with that. The pressure was there and it forced mistakes, notable not least because of the defense's four interceptions total. Will Allen also produced a forced fumble.

Dream Team? More like "Dream On" at the minute, but its early days yet. I am wondering though, after my post the other day about the pressure that comes with the hype, will the Philadelphia media start to go rabid already? We'll see.

Right then, we'll round off this post by having a look ahead at the Friday night action.

Which begins with the Redskins at the Colts. The Curtis Painter saga continues! More of interest though will be the defense, which got over run by St. Louis of all people last week. If Manning doesn't come back 100% this year then the Colts will need a very strong showing from their defense just to make the playoffs. For the Redskins this is another chance to see where they stand with Rex Grossman and perhaps give that rushing attack a kick up the backside.

The Chiefs get a repeat of their playoff match up from last year, but this time they'll be on the road against the Ravens. I'm actually quite intrigued by this. I want to know whether Head Coach Todd Haley trusts his running game this time or whether he's going to stick with testing out his back up quarterback situation. The Ravens need to find their groove offensively and really give Joe Flacco a decent spell.

Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns next, and two teams that had pretty good starts to the pre-season, offensively at least. Looking forward to seeing more Colt McCoy in action and also finding out whether Matthew Staffords resurgence in week 1 was just a fluke or if he's finally starting to build a sense of rhythm with his receivers.

The Cam Netwon show rolls into Miami as the Panthers face the Dolphins. This one is all about the quarterbacks, as Newton and Clausen battle for the starting role in Carolina, and Chad Henne tries to convince the Miami coaches he's the right man for the job this season.

The Cardinals get a trip to a slightly cooler Green Bay for their week 2 game. For Green Bay its about building on a pretty good showing by the first stringers last week while a lot of attention will be on Arizona in this one. More specifically, the mess that is otherwise known as their quarterback situation. It'll also provide a nice test for what is a defense in some disarray, having still not stopped the rot at the linebacker position from last season.

Finally, the Falcons nip across to Florida to take on Jacksonville. I'm interested to know just how tough that Falcons defense will be this year. Specifically I'm looking for sacks from the Falcons D-line. For the Jaguars all eyes will doubtless be on Blaine Gabbert, but a more important question in my book is how their revamped linebacking corps gets on.

See you tomorrow.

AFC North 2011 preview

Finally, finally, I can round up this series of 2011 previews. I've almost come to resent it by this point (but not as much as I resent the prick at work who pulled the sicky last night). We've reached the AFC North, at last. Starting with: Baltimore Ravens: Once again the Ravens had a solid year. Once again their defense led the way. And once again it was their offense that choked at the most inappropriate moment. Crappy play calling, communication errors in pass protection; it wouldn't be so bad for Ravens fans if it wasn't the same tired old problems every year. But it is. So it just makes the Ravens offense all the more laughable. Free agency won't help. Jared Gaither, the highly competent offensive tackle, will hit unrestricted free agency. So does WR T. J. Houshmandzadeh. And FB Le'Ron McClain. And WR Dante Stallworth. And QB Marc Bulger. Ok, so we can write off the whole Stallworth & Bulger thing, but those other three will be missed. Looking at the defense though, it gets even worse. Chris Carr. Dawan Landry. Fabian Washington. All up for unrestricted free agency. On top of that Naruki Nakamura and Tom Zbikowski are up for restricted free agency and proved themselves as handy little players this past season. The net result could be a severe depletion of the Ravens secondary. Literally, we're talking about down to four or five players, of which only three are starters and the other two are captain nobodies. The Ravens are potentially about to turn into a soccer ball; seriously deficient in corners. Other than that (he says) the Ravens are ok and will have their options open in this years draft. They pick at 26th overall, and other than corner their only real nagging need would be linebacker. Part of that depends on what they choose to do with Sergio Kindle, who missed the whole season with a serious head injury and now has a court date lined up for some infraction which currently escapes my memory and is not sufficiently important to motivate me to look it up on Wikipedia. It could be argued as well that the Ravens could use a true deep threat receiver, with sufficient speed and height to give Joe Flacco a proper downfield target. As for the 2011 outlook? The Ravens should be fine. Providing of course they can sort out that whole problem of not having a secondary. And the lack of a deep threat receiver. And the shortage of linebackers. And if they can teach Ray Rice how to pass block. Or better yet, they can just fix their play-calling (run more and/or stop asking Ray Rice to pass block). Maybe 2012 will be their year? Cincinnati Bengals: Ah the Bengals, desperately trying to convince the word that they can be just as dysfunctional and poorly run as the Raiders or Redskins. A 4-12 season in 2010 wasn't quite what they had in mind, especially after winning the AFC North the season before. The loud thud that could be heard in Ohio at the end of this season was either; a) The sound of a Bengals fan jumping out of a high rise window, b) The sound of Chad Ochocinco being thrown under a bus by his Head Coach, c) The sound of every bodies jaws dropping when Ochocinco made his now semi-famous "they won't give you a new contract because your black" speech to Terrell Owens, d) The sound of both Terrell Owens's and Chad Ochocinco's stock plummeting, or e) The sound of Carson Palmer slamming the door shut on his way out, Either way I think I've sufficiently belaboured the point now about the Bengals downfall. Just be thankful I didn't associate thumping noises with any mention of Tank Johnson. So lets have a look at the Bengals unrestricted free agents and... oh dear!! Not looking good! Say bye, bye to star RB Cedric Benson. And LB Dhani Jones, LB Brandon Johnson, star CB Jonathan Joseph, FB Brian Leonard, OG Evan Mathis, Safeties Chinedum Ndukwe and Gibril Wilson, and of course, WR Terrell Owens. Possibly (re: almost definitely) add Chad Ochocino to that list. Oh yeah, and of course Carson Palmer. You remember him, the teams only real veteran QB. All of those departures certainly open the doors of possibility when it comes to the draft. Picking at number 4 overall, the Bengals have to make a choice. Do they go QB? RB? WR? LB? SS? FS? (shut up, I know they're almost the same thing). The choice will be interesting, and ultimately necessary for the Bengals. Because short of a miracle in the draft and free agency, the Bengals will hit the start of the 2011 season without a true starting QB, with two back up RB (and three back up FB's), a five man wide receiver outfit (maybe a chance finally for Andre Caldwell? Here's hoping), a depleted linebacker corps and no decent starting safeties. That for me is not a recipe for success, especially not when facing the Steelers. Twice. On the other hand, it could go spectacularly right. Stay with me on this one. The Bengals switch their offense to a "ground and pound" style, something which their O-line has proven to be very, very good at. On defense they start to reap the rewards of their investment in the D-line. They don't score much, but it doesn't matter because their well rested defense is more than up to the task of keeping other teams scores down. You're right, it'll never happen. Onwards and upwards. Cleveland Browns: The fact that the Browns finished 5-11 shouldn't come as a surprise. The sacking of Head Coach Eric Mangini should however. I thought Mangini was just starting to get in the swing of things. In his interviews he sounded like he'd mellowed out a little and was just starting to find his feet as the top dog. He had a great young QB in the works and the team was on the up. But then the Dark Lord of the West Coast Offense (Mike Holmgren) swung his axe and it was all over. Now the Browns will be led into the breach for 2011 by Pat Shurmer, formerly the offensive coordinator of the St. Louis Rams in his first outing as a Head Coach. I rather get the sense that the Sword of Damacles is hanging over his head, and Holmgren is just waiting for the right moment to cut him down and assume the throne. Still, at least the Browns have the chance to refresh the team with some slick moves in free agency. Like Franchising their kicker for example. Wait, what? They franchise tagged Phil Dawson? Just...... why? Not LB/DE Matt Roth then? Or safety Sabby Piscitelli (I wouldn't either, but Phil Dawson?). Safety Abram Elam is up for the chop as well, along with RB Mike Bell, CB Eric Wright and WR Chansi Stuckey, plus others. In the draft the Browns pick at number 6 overall. Needs range from a deep threat wide receiver, to a decent tight end, to D-line, to Linebacker, to cornerback and safety. So yeah, not an envious task by any means. It's anyones guess where they'll go, but Nick Fairely might be near the top of their board. In 2011, don't expect much from the Browns. No really, don't. If they go 0-16 I'll just shrug my shoulders and say "at least they scored a few touchdowns". The Browns were undergoing a rebuilding phase, but now that they've dumped the Head Coach that was leading the rebuild and have lost their D-coordinator (Rob Ryan) to the Cowboys (they're now guided defensively by Dick Jauron), I'd say that the team is headed for a 2011 meltdown. It's not going to be pretty. Not at all. Pittsburgh Steelers: So close, but so far. Sort of. It almost seems like tradition now for the Steelers to be in the Super Bowl. I wouldn't be shocked if in the next couple of years the NFL becomes like an episode of Gladiators, where each season a new team comes to challenge the Gladiators for their crown. And let us not forget, they played the first four games minus their starting QB, who then spent the rest of the season getting the crapped kicked out of him. Of course James Harrison made up for it, clocking up fines like they were touchdowns for illegal hits left, right and center. 2011 then will need to start with solidity on the offensive line. Ah. OT Willie Colon. Gone (He was shit anyway. Get it? Colon? Shit? Chortle, chortle). OG Trai Essex, gone. OT Jonathan Scott, gone. That's three down from among the offensive line already, before the wicked mistress of injury works her inevitable charms. Joining the above into unrestricted free agency, which to be fair isn't necessarily a guarantee you'll leave (unless you happen to be good), are; DE Nick Eason, LB Keyaron Fox, CB's Ike Taylor and William Gay, and RB Mewelde Moore (among others). That's five players right there that I wouldn't mind having on my team. In particular, Moore is badly under rated as a running back, as is Ike Taylor as a corner. I could see someone like Rex Ryan over at the Jets swooping on Taylor to fill his roster hole at corner now that Cromartie is on the way out. And to be fair, Taylor could do it and do it a lot cheaper than Cromartie. Overall the Steelers head into the draft in pretty darn good shape. They pick 31st overall being the Super Bowl runners up, and their needs are pretty slim. Cornerback, especially if they can't get either Taylor or Gay to return. Maybe a rangey free safety would go down well. A speedy receiver to replace Santonio Holmes would be handy. But knowing the Steelers they'll do something boring, safe, and ultimately of very sound judgement like taking an offensive linemen who has inexplicably slipped down to them. In 2011 then, plenty to be hopeful for. The O-line is going to be even more suspect than before and the secondary will be a little shaky, but I'd expect a wild card slot at the very minimum. That's the thing about the Steelers, they're built for the long haul. Damn them.

Super Bowl 45

It's over. It's all done. At least for one more season. Pittsburgh Steelers 25 @ Green Bay Packers 31: Normally I'd do a game recap, but frankly if you're reading this then there is a 95% chance you watched the game and thus a recap would be redundant. So I'll just share my thoughts for the game: -- Why did Ben Roethlisberger throw 40 passes when it was obvious to almost everyone watching (except Bruce Arians for example) that the Packers defense was struggling to stop the Steelers rushing attack? Rashard Mendenhall had 14 carries for 63 yards. Issac Redman carried twice for 19 yards. Mewelde Moore (who will hopefully find a team that values him in free agency. Good player) picked up 13 yards on 3 carries. The Packers were getting creamed on the ground. -- Credit to MVP Aaron Rodgers. I thought WR Jordi Nelson might give him a run for his money on that score, but 24/39 for 304 yards and 3 TD's is nothing to be sniffed at. Having cruised in the first half, he struggled in the third but recovered very well for the endgame. -- Antwaan Randle El made a case for his elderly ass receiving more targets next year. -- The Packers controlled field position well, helped by the Steelers bizarre 52 yard field goal attempt. -- Troy who? I'm a real advocate of getting your best players involved in the game somehow. And while I understand that sometimes the Steelers lean on Polamalu too much (and even made mention of that the other day) I'm absolutely astounded with just how little a part Polamalu played in the gameplan. Bad decision. -- Ben Roethlisberger came out after the game (no, not like that) and said that he feels he should shoulder a lot of the blame for Pittsburgh. If he was hoping that everyone would come to his defense and rub his ego (the jokes are just too easy, so I wont), then I think he's in for a long wait. -- When was the last time that a team with a minus 3 turnover ratio actually won a game? Any game? Honestly I don't know. It can't have happened that often. -- I'm pleased for rookie LB Frank Zombo, who had a pretty solid impact for that Packers defense. -- And credit to the Packers D in general, who played well despite the loss of Charles Woodson and Sam Shields. I honestly thought the second half might have swung massively in the Steelers favour. It didn't it because the Pack held it together. -- In fact, just all out respect to the Green Bay Packers. A ton of people had them tipped for Super Bowl glory at the beginning of the year and they were right. This team drafted well, came together well as a team, fought a season long battle with injuries and is truly a very worthy champion. Now enough of blowing smoke up the Packers butts (I'm sure the players, with their salaries, can find plenty of places that offer that service). Time for a bit of general news: -- For those who hadn't already seen the list, the Pro Football Hall of Fame has chosen it's seven inductees for 2011; Richard Dent. Defensive End for the Bears, including the famous team of '85 which resulted in his MVP award in Super Bowl 20. Marshall Faulk. Running Back for the Rams "greatest show on turf". Enough said. Chris Hanburger. Linebacker for the Redskins from 1965 to 1978. Elected to 9 Pro Bowls and a 4 time All-Pro selection. Les Richter. Linebacker, Guard and Kicker for the Rams from 1954 to 1962. 8 Pro Bowls and 2 time All-Pro. Ed Sabol. Founder of the company that eventually became NFL Films. Seen as a controversial choice by some, but the work of NFL Films has probably done more to promote the NFL into the multi-billion dollar industry it is today than any other form of advertising or promotion. It also makes kick ass montages. Deion Sanders. 8 Pro Bowls, 6 All-Pro selections and 2 Super Bowl rings. Plus a bunch of off field issues and the "kiss of drama" anytime he decides to mentor a young player. Also pretty famous for publicly criticising players toughness etc, despite being notorious for shirking away from tackles. Shannon Sharpe. 8 Pro Bowls. 4 time Associated Press All-Pro. 3 Super Bowl rings. Finally in. Thumbs up. Those who missed out were; Jerome Bettis, Tim Brown, Cris Carter, Dermontti Dawson, Chris Doleman, Charles Haley, Cortez Kennedy, Curtis Martin, Andre Reed and Willie Roaf. Of those I'm disappointed in particular that Bettis didn't get in ahead of Faulk and that somehow Deion Sanders is considered better than Charles Haley. Ronnie Lott was particularly pissed off about Haley not making it, again, voicing his complaints to the press that a five time Super Bowl winner like Haley can't get in possibly because of off field comments/actions he has made in the past. Didn't hurt Sanders. -- The Labor situation still isn't under control. And given that I mercilessly bash the NFLPA every time it spouts some bullshit line such as the possibility of a lock out still being very high, despite the fact that they themselves can prevent such an action in a heartbeat, I feel it's only fair that I bash the owners or indeed their mouth piece Roger Goodell anytime he/they too spouts a line of pure bollocks. So it is that I draw your attention to this article on ProFootballTalk.com. Written prior to the Super Bowl and basically just reporting that Roger Goodell has once again re-iterated that he would like to see an 18-game regular season and that it's what the fans want. But PFT.com cited a study by the Associated Press that contradicts that view. What is even more telling is the first comment that simply says "No".... and has been given the thumbs up (last time I checked) by 1229 people compared to just 117 thumbs down. This is a story repeated everywhere an article about this subject props up. The majority of fans seem to hate this idea (me included). Now if the league wants to push it, they are more than welcome to say that but they have to stop trying to bullshit that the fans are in full support of the idea. So what now? Well, with no football till August (hear, have a tissue) the next big date on the calender is early March, when we'll either be waiting to see how Free Agency pans out or we'll be looking at the start of a protracted and ugly labor dispute. Then we have the draft (regardless of the CBA) in April. Until then I'll be churning out articles looking at how each team fared in 2010 and how they might go about handling free agency and the draft. I'll also hopefully be around for the 2011 combine starting February 23 - March 1st, but that's subject to me being able to loaf off at the appropriate times. Fingers crossed.

It's time

Well, sort of. Time is ticking though. As a cold, wintery blanket descends on Texas, the Super Bowl is a mere few days away now. Fans in suits (yeah) are arriving in droves ahead of the big game. The media is whipping itself into a frenzy. Mike Florio is filling the ProFootballTalk.com pages daily with bitching about ice, presumably to cover the lack of news at this time of year. So now is as good a time as any to take a look at what's in store and compare the two teams. We'll start on defense. Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers: Super Bowl 45 Nose Tackle: For the Steelers it's Casey Hampton. For the Packers it's more of a combination thing, with Ryan Pickett and B.J. Raji both capable at the position. It's definitely one of those positions to watch if you get the opportunity. The Nose Tackle is a real key to the 3-4 defense that both teams will be using. Hampton is, frankly, a beast. The ability to consume and hold up double team blocks by the offensive line is a key to this position, allowing the linebackers to flow to the ball and make the plays. Hampton is one of the best in the league when it comes to this. He may not have the pass rushing impact that you find on some teams at the Nose Tackle spot, but Hampton is unquestionably the key to the Steelers awesome run defense. Inside, outside, Hampton is the cog that allows all the other gears to run. Pickett and Raji meanwhile are a little more versatile. Raji in particular. Compared to Hampton's sole sack this season, Raji has 6.5. He's much more of an impact player against the pass, not just through sacks but also the pressure he generates up the middle, giving guards nightmares as they figure out a way to contain his awesome bulk and speed. Pickett isn't too shabby either. Against the run there are a few more questions for the Packers tackles, as there inevitably will be when your style leans more to the pass than the rush. Opportunities inside for the Steelers perhaps? Defensive End: It's a little harder to measure defensive ends in 3-4's. Unlike their 4-3 counter parts they don't get to the QB anywhere near as often. And unlike a big Nose Tackle, their impact against the run is not as noticeable. They're kind of the forgotten men, cast into the shadows of their bigger team mates (literally). But don't count the 3-4 defensive end out. Justin Smith of the 49ers picked up 8.5 sacks from this position during the regular season (just about the only good thing to happen for the 49ers). That's something that both teams in this game will be hoping they can channel on Sunday. They certainly have the players to do it. For the Steelers listen out for the names Brett Keisel and Ziggy Hood. These are not just two spare parts who make up the number for the Steelers. These are two important inside players who make up a big part of what the Steelers do defensively. In particular they seem to have a nose for pursuing the run from the back side, and their stoutness and toughness against the blocks of offensive linemen once again contributes to keeping the linebackers clean to make the tackle. Although guys like Harrison and Farrior get all the glory, it's the D-linemen that make the Steelers run defense what it is. For the Packers, again keep an ear out for Ryan Picketts name as he sometimes ends up on the field together with Raji, and also keep your ears pinned back for Cullen Jenkins. For me, Jenkins is one of the most under rated guys in the NFL. When you look at impact on the field. Not so much raw numbers (though he has 7 sacks) but just genuine, on the field impact. Jenkins is a true warrior of the trenches and is easily as deserving of a Super Bowl ring as anyone on that field Sunday. Linebackers: Now we're starting to get into the highlight reel stuff. Now we're getting to the show time. It's not that I dislike linebackers, I don't by any means, but I do kind of get annoyed at the amount of press they get over their larger counterparts up front. This is especially the case in 3-4 defenses like both teams run, as it's the linemen who do most of the work up front leaving the easy one on one tackles for the backers. That said, let's not play down just how good some of these guys are. The Steelers starting four need little in the way of introductions; LaMarr Woodley, James Harrison, James Farrior, Lawrence Timmons. Just about four of the most recognisable names in pro football right now. But I also want to quickly give some love to Larry Foote and Keyaron Fox, kind of the forgotten men of the Steelers D. Foote and Fox may not be starters and they may not get the headlines, highlights, or stories of glory written about them. But as rotation players in this defense they play an important role, spelling the starters to give them a rest while not letting the quality of the defense drop. If anything that's probably harder than starting because you don't have the opportunity to get into any kind of rhythm. All this before we even mention the fact that these guys often slot right in on third downs and around the goal line and nobody even batters an eye lid as the Steelers D just keeps on chugging like nothing has changed. Where Harrison and Woodley really make their money though is against the pass, with the pair combining for 20.5 sacks (Harrison has the 10.5). It's this combined arms pass rush that really makes the difference as far as the Steelers are concerned. Compare this to a 3-4 team like the Cowboys, where DeMarcus Ware had 15.5 sacks and indeed lead the NFL in sacks. That's great, but that's the Cowboys D summed up in one sentence. One player, 15 sacks. The Steelers are more about team D. Two players, 20 sacks. Versatility is the name of the game. If there's one knock on them though, it's play-action. The very thing that makes them so solid against the run - the flow of linebackers to the football - also makes them very vulnerable to play-action. Luckily the Packers aren't a huge running team, but as the Indianapolis Colts have shown before sometimes just the threat of a run is enough to make the play-action game go. As for the Packers, I can shoot off one name and you'll know it straight away; Clay Matthews. 13.5 sacks. But for a 3-4 teams the Packers oddly struggle at times to get their linebackers involved. Names like Desmond Bishop, Frank Zombo and A.J. Hawk still ring a bell. But not in the same way as when you talk about the Steelers backers. We've kind of touched on this already. The Packers rely more on their D-line to make plays and pick up sacks, whereas the Steelers play a more traditional 3-4 where the linemen consume blocks and do the heavy lifting while the backers do most of the glory stuff. The Packers are a little lighter against the run and that could be to their detriment. Expect plenty of fancy blitzing and use of the Nickelback to bring pressure. Oh, and a healthy dose of Mr. Matthews. Secondary: Here is where the Packers start to find their edge on defense. Atari Bigby, Nick Collins, Sam Shields, Tramon Williams and Charles Woodson. Five names that are basically synonymous now with high quality secondary defense. We all know about Woodson, Bigby & Collins, but it's been the advancement of Williams and the rookie Shields that has really had the impact. Their development has given the Packers the ability to be more flexible with their coverages. Without being restricted to defenses that center around the talents of Woodson they have the option of opening up the playbook and giving opposing quarterbacks, even the more experienced ones, nightmares. Just ask Matt Ryan, who suffered at the hands of Williams in the divisional round. And for all the press that Williams has taken, Shields has slipped under the radar. He may be the weak link when all is said and done, but he's far from being a pushover. The combination of these factors makes the Packers defense tough (and dangerous) to throw against. It's a luxury that the Steelers don't exactly have. Not that they're too bad off themselves, just not quite as well off as Green Bay. Guys like Ryan Clark and Will Allen are good. William Gay is a solid utility player. Bryant McFadden is... acceptable. Ike Taylor is pretty darn good and a little under rated. But the secondary still revolves around Troy Polamalu. Where he goes, nobody knows, as he moves up and down the line looking for the right hole to blitz through, often backing out at the last second and bailing downfield. But one man a secondary does not maketh, or words to that effect. The trouble with Polamalu is that he's a great player, but when he goes walk about that leaves the Steelers back end short handed and often a little disorientated. You get the distinct impression that on many plays the rest of the secondary has no idea what Polamalu will do until the ball is snapped, leaving them high and dry. Their biggest strength sometimes becomes their biggest weakest. There's a few offensive players in this game who might fit that bill too. Offensive Linemen: Jerry Jones will be watching on in Cowboys Stadium with a green, envious face. Not just because two teams who are not the Cowboys will be playing a Super Bowl in his stadium, but also because Flozell Adams - the Left Tackle Jerry decided was expendable - will be playing on one of those teams. Adams will take his place on the right side of a line that is... shaky, shall we say. It could only get worse really if Center Maurkice Pouncey somehow got injured and. Oh. Oh yeah I forgot. Pouncey is injured. Oh dear. I jest of course, at least to a degree. The Steelers do have some capable linemen such as Trai Essex and Chris Kemoeatu. They're not bad as a unit. If Ben Roethlisberger didn't hold onto the ball so long they'd probably come off a little better in the sack department. When running the ball they're average. The Packers penchant for rushing the passer at all costs could aid the Steelers in getting good blocking angles, but that's rather a case of relying on the opposition to throw you a bone. To be fair though, the Packers are in much the same boat. Their offensive line has some talent, mainly at the two tackle spots, but they've hardly built a reputation over the last two seasons for being a fearsome unit. They give up too many sacks and they lack the physicality to push people around, especially in short yardage. When your offense has to bring on a defensive tackle to help out at Fullback, that's generally not a good sign. Running Backs: Here at least on offense the Steelers have an all round capability. Rashard Mendenhall, Mewelde Moore, Issac Redman and to some extent rookie Jonathan Dwyer make a great team. They all have talent. They all have burst. They all have power. It's shame about their offensive line at times and the fact that the Steelers aren't quite the smash mouth power football team they once were. In fact they're not really at all like that anymore, favouring the pass. But at least they're not the Packers at this position. I don't dispute that the Packers have coped reasonably well with the loss of Ryan Grant, but there's a big difference between reasonably well and very good. Brandon Jackson and James Starks are ok and John Kuhn has turned out to be a pretty handy Fullback, but then we all know the Packers aren't a big running team right now. Receivers: I'm going to chuck the tight ends in here along with the wide outs. It's late, I'm tired, so tough. Starting with Pittsburgh, they have a fairly solid blend at receiver. Hines Ward, Antwann Randle El, Arnaz Battle and Heath Miller give the Steelers experience. Mike Wallacs, Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown bring the speed. Of particular note is the value of guys like Ward and Miller in a game like this. They have relatively safe hands, cool heads and big game experience. Their efforts will help set the tone for the Steelers offense. But Green Bay is looking at another position win here, especially against the Steelers often so-so secondary. Greg Jennings. Donald Driver. James Jones. Jordy Nelson. Donald Lee. That should be enough said right there. This is simply one of the most complete receiving corps in the NFL and with you-know-who slinging the ball to them, and with their propensity for running after the catch, it's no wonder the Packers have one of the most respected offenses in the league. Quarterbacks: It was always going to come down to this. The two gun slingers going head to head. Roethlisberger versus Rodgers. Neither team has such a strong running game that it can take over the game with. Thus, given the quality of the defenses, much of this game will rest on the ability of Rodgers and Roethlisberger to keep plays alive and find their receivers down field. Roethlisberger certainly knows a thing or two about keeping plays alive. It's basically become a trademark for 'Big Ben'. It's not always a good thing though. Despite his reputation for being very hard to bring down and an uncanny awareness for when a play is truly dead (a trait sorely lacking in Tony Romo for example), it is also a symptom of his occasional blindness to certain receivers. I can't tell you the exact reason why. To do that I'd have to sit down and interview the guy while pouring over hours of film that I don't currently have access to. But at an educated guess I'd say that it stems from a lack of trust in some receivers combined with a strong desire to feed the ball to others. While this can serve as a positive when he extends plays in critical situations, my concern is that he also misses prime opportunities to get the ball out of his hands and make plays, albeit sometimes short gains. Against a strong Packers pass rush it'll be interesting to see how long he responds. Will he hold the ball, fight off would be tacklers and try to make big plays? Or will he adapt to the conditions and play a little small ball? Rodgers could be just as intriguing. He - like Roehtlisberger - has a reputation for using his legs to extend plays. But unlike Roethlisberger, Rodgers favours the more downfield approach to running, often picking up first downs with a mobility that's reminiscent of Steve Young. How many opportunities he'll get to do this against the Steelers will be interesting. The variety of the blitzes might leave holes that are not immediately recognisable and/or hide late rushers whom Rodgers runs into. More to the point, given the tough reputation of the Steelers D I'm intrigued as to how willing Rodgers will be to take flight down the field. Given the nature of the game, I suspect Rodgers will take his chances and put his health in the hands of the footballing Gods in search of a ring. Where he'll make his biggest impact though is throwing the ball deep. His receivers are primed and ready. The question will be how well he copes with the various blitz's and the mental battle that is anticipated between himself and Troy Polamalu. Rodgers has already shown he has the makings of an elite level QB. Another season of production at this level will secure that title in my eyes. We know he can sling it and we know he can do accurately. Can he cope with the extreme pressure of the Super Bowl. Based on the evidence we have, I'd say yes. Can he out perform Roethlisberger, a guy who has already earned his elite status? Well you'll just have to wait and see I guess. Personally I can't wait. If I had to pick a winner, I'd probably take the Steelers. I think their defense has a little more in it than the Packers. But it's a testament to how good Pittsburgh is that I consider them one of the few teams that can legitimately hang in the same arena as the Steelers. It's going to be a hell of a contest and the winner will truly be worthy of the title as the best team in the NFL in 2010, a feat all the more impressive given the strong nature of the league this year.

Conference Championship round up

Time to look back at Sunday's games: Green Bay Packers 21 @ Chicago Bears 14 One day Jay Cutler is going to look back on this game and regret not just forcing his way onto the field, even if it meant fighting people off to do it. Because the Internet, the media and much of Chicago has gone into freaking meltdown with Cutler hate. For those who don't know why yet, it's all to do with his knee. As I write this, we still have no idea what precisely is wrong. All that's known is that it's something knee related. Very helpful as you can see. But it's not so much the fact that he injured said knee as the fact that he didn't finish the game. An early appearance for the second half was cut short and Todd Collins came in to replace him. That's when the world blew up. Players current and former have been hitting Twitter and pretty much every other outlet they can to denounce Cutler, questioning his toughness and making a point about big time players playing in big time games, citing numerous examples from footballing lore. Two of the more hilarious (not intentionally) were Maurice Jones-Drew and Deion Sanders. That being the same Jones-Drew who missed his teams last two games of the season through injury when the Jaguars were still in with a shout of winning the division, and the same Deion Sanders who was just as famous for making "business decisions" when it came to tackling as he was for making big plays against the pass. But I digress. Collins threw four passes and didn't complete a single one. Added to Cutlers 6/14 for 80 yards and things did not look good for the Bears as the Packers raced off to 14-0 lead. But then Lovie Smith had seen enough of Collins and rolled out his secret weapon; Caleb Haine!!!! The third year quarterback had probably taken as many snaps with the Bears first team in this past week as Barack Obama. Yet he came and rallied the troops with 13/20 for 153 yards and a TD, as well as helping the Bears to drive for a TD by Chester Taylor. Unfortunately he also threw two interceptions, but his contribution can't be denied. Based on that showing, had he played since snap one you have to feel, no joke, that the Bears probably would have done a lot better. Chicago fans seem to think so to, as an emerging number of fan photos appear with Cutler's jersey's being set on fire. If this was Philadelphia fans doing this, the fans would already be coming under fire for being too harsh and the media to critical, but I guess it's ok in Chicago. Maybe the rule is if the city you live in has a strong connection to the current President then it's all good. I dunno. Anyway, the Packers got the job done, but not without some trials of their own. Aaron Rodgers was an uncharacteristic 17/30 for 244 yards with 2 interceptions. But 7 carries for 39 yards and a TD made a big impact, as did rookie running back James Starks who carried 22 times for 74 yards and a TD. The third came from a B.J. Raji pick 6. Yes, B.J.Raji got an interception... and then ran it back 18 yards for a TD. Other notable defensive performances for the Packers were Cullen Jenkins, who shared a sack with Clay Matthews, as well as recording two tackles for loss and 2 quarterback hits, and also rookie corner Sam Shields who had a sack, 2 interceptions and a forced fumble. The Bears D just couldn't match up. LB Brian Urlacher (who would later jump to Cutlers defense over the injury/toughness situation) recorded the Bears sole sack, along with 2 tackles for loss, a QB hit, an interception and a pass defended. But one man a defense doesn't maketh (or something along those lines). The Bears played well, but their inability to get to Aaron Rodgers or even at times just contain him cost them dearly. In retrospect the Bears put up a good fight. They ended up losing only by seven points with their third string QB on the field. I know people don't like to hear these things and often find its hard to take solace from a championship game loss, but I'm a realist. Given the expectations of this Bears team in week 1, this has been a hell of a positive season for them. They should be optimistic next year, especially as Cutler and co. will have had a full season to assimilate Mike Martz's system. Just as long as they can convince Martz to run the ball a little more in 2011, with Chester Taylor and Matt Forte forming a solid duo. And convince him not to run end around plays on critical third downs. For the Packers it's off to a Super Bowl which they have a solid chance of winning. However as I understand it they're currently the bookmakers favourites to win it all, which I find rather confusing given the team they're up against. Speaking of which. New York Jets 19 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Finally, thank you God!! I respect Rex Ryan for his coaching ability. People tend to think of Ryan as a loudmouth braggart who lacks the fine grasp of tactics that we expect from guys like Belichick. But that's simply wrong. In fact, it couldn't be more wrong. Ryan is probably the most clever and skillful strategist and tactician in the league today, as well as being a very strong technical coach. But I do wish he and his players would shut the f**k up. Well, hopefully he will now as the Jets came up short in the AFC Championship game for the second season running. With the promise of a Super Bowl or bust on the table, it looks like Rex had a pair of Kings and then suddenly pulled out a Jack. All the hype, all the talk etc, all for nothing in 2010. Well, I say nothing. Reaching the AFC Championship two seasons in a row is nothing to be scoffed at. What it tells us is that either the Jets are incredibly talented, or Ryan and his staff just have a knack for squeezing out every last drop from the players. Or they got extremely lucky. I guess we can't really put our finger on any single reason. Like most teams that make it this far, all three of the above is true to varying degrees. Certainly the offense had expended whatever luck it might have previously had. For the entire first half they rustled up just a single field goal. Sanchez finished the game 20/33 for 233 yards and 2 TD's, but for the first half he was a mere 7/15 for 63 yards and having been sacked twice. Thus the Sanchez carousel goes around once more, leaving him in the odd spot of being probably the worst QB to ever win four road playoff games. One more win and he sets a new record. A new all time record for most road wins in the playoffs. How? There was another QB in this game though who's also pretty handy at winning playoff games, that being Ben Roethlisberger. He finished a paltry 10/19 for 133 yards and 2 interceptions, but it mattered little as the Steelers took a 24-3 halftime lead largely off the back of a strong running game and a strong defense, aka - Steeler football. Rashard Mendenhall carried the ball 27 times in all for 121 yards and a TD. Roethlisberger himself added another 21 yards and a TD on 11 carries. But the Jets defense didn't exactly go down without a fight. They collectively picked up 2 sacks, 7 tackles for loss, 2 QB hits, 2 interceptions and 5 passes defended. But the Steelers first half defensive dominance paid dividends. As a group they put up a total game tally of 2 sacks, 4 tackles for loss, 4 QB hits, 4 passes defended and a forced fumble which was returned 19 yards for a TD by CB William Gay. The Jets nearly came back into this one but it was too little, too late for the New Yorkers. I can picture Rodger Goodell now crying into his champagne when it finally sinks in that a) there will be no team from New York, the biggest media consumption market, in the Super Bowl and b) the Steelers, who he seems to hate so much, will be there. And Pittsburgh has earned this. They've played dominating defense for almost the whole season. On offense they've adapted to fit in their rookie wide receivers and they've coped with missing Roethlisberger for the first 4 games. It's been a struggle at times, but credit where it is due, they really have pulled through so far. Personally I consider them the favourites going into Dallas, not the Packers. Which of course now means that we have two weeks to just sit around and stew waiting for the big game to come along. I smell some rest time coming for myself. Of course by rest time I mean that I'm going to spend less time blogging and more of the next two weeks furiously studying game clips of the 2011 draft class. Which now brings me around nicely to my moan for the day. I didn't get to see the East-West Shrine game. I thus then logged onto NFL.com for some highlights, bearing in mind that the NFL network had the coverage. What I found was this sh*t-tastic 49 second clip. I mean seriously? 49 seconds? (actually I lie, it was 42) And I had to watch a 30 second advert just to get to the video. That's ridiculous. It would appear also that a fair number of the commenter's for the video agree too. It just stuns me that the NFL can be so damn stingy with things like this. It's almost like they don't want fans to watch football. If anyone from that network or that site happens to stumble across this blog, perhaps part of the censorship division on the look out for people who disagree with that ass hat Goodell, then for Christ's sake sort your crappy video service out. It might even help you to "grow the game" a little.

There's a subliminal message in there somewhere. I don't know why, I just keep getting this image in my head...

So basically I've been pretty busy and as a result my blog has backed up. Well now I've finally found the time to put pen to paper (or finger to keyboard) and the result is a mammoth post. So, coming up (I should really do this as a TV show); - Bad news for Detroit fans, - Evidence that advertising executives might be f**king over paid, - Understanding the value of Big Ben Roethlisberger, - A follow up on the other days post about momentum/psychology, - Why Falcons coach Mike Smith should trust his own instincts more, - A look ahead at both of the weekends Conference Championship games, It looks like a lot less when put into a list. I can assure you it was a bitch to write, consuming many hours/cups of coffee. On that note, time to unashamedly plug the blog and try to boost pageviews by encouraging all readers to spread the word. Tell your friends. Tell your family. Tell your co-workers. Stick the address on your Facebook page. Kidnap your next door neighbours dog and spray paint the URL on it.... no seriously, don't do that. Put the can down. Let go of the dog. Slowly now (but do put the url on your Facebook). Anyway, dog-knapping aside, let's start with the Lions and that bit of bad news. It's Matthew Stafford again. He's now had surgery again on his throwing shoulder after separating said shoulder twice this past season. Recovery time is estimated in the four month region, which should see Stafford back in action by the time mini camps roll around (providing the labor situation has been resolved). But it's another blow for Stafford and the Lions. Injuries don't help in the first place, but repeated surgeries don't help much either. If you can heal naturally, that's usually the best, but it's not always an option. There's honestly not a lot else that the Lions can do but cross their fingers and hope that it all works out ok. It's shame though. Chances are that the cumulative effect of the injuries and surgeries in such a short span will seriously impede his future development and that means the Lions just potentially blew $41 million guaranteed on a kid who has now played a grand total of 13 games in his two year career. Now, I've long been a believer that in the modern world there are a hell of a lot of people who are over paid for what they bring to the table, including a large number of football players. No more is this the case than in advertising, given that most people are driven nuts by adverts as opposed to listening intently to them. Specifically I want to turn my wagging finger of doom on Internet Advertisers, who seem incapable of adapting to the demands of the medium. Take this post for example, from Mashable.com, circa April '09. Basically predicting the mass rise of pre-video ads on YouTube, what's most interesting to me is the comments section. There are a few of the ever useful "well, they have to make money somehow comments," that don't exactly carry the argument on a lot. But what stands out most are three things; 1) The complaints about the ratio of video length to advert length, 2) The suggested effect this has on viewers, 3) The suggested solutions to the problem, The first one just makes me laugh in mild despair, because people are complaining about having to sit through a 30 second advert just to watch 2 or 3 minutes of video. These people should try watching videos on NFL.com, where a 30 second commercial will be casually slipped in between every other video, even if those videos only happen to last less than the actual advert. Catching up on the game highlights of the games you missed is a nightmare, especially if the combined sound of Steve Mariucci and Deion Sanders forces you to avoid any video labelled "NFL Gameday Highlights". And the autostart function when you first switch to the highlights section = pure, uncapped anger and annoyance. Which brings me to number 2, the effect on viewers. Guess what happens when an advert comes on now? Do I sit and watch it? Hell no!! I hit the rather handy mute button on my keyboard and simply flick to another open tab to find something else to do for 30 seconds. Just at a pure freaking guess, I imagine that probably 95% of the rest of the viewers does the same. One thing we know for certain is that people get driven nuts simply by the mere thought of having to watch a 30 second ad in between two 30 second highlight clips. So why haven't advertisers adapted? Surely all these highly paid ad men are right there at the cutting edge of modern technology trends? Surely they have their target markets by the balls and are skillfully milking them for every last purchase (erm, that was perhaps a poorly chosen analogy)? But no. It would appear not. What's truly interesting then about the comments section of the above mentioned post is that the answer to the problem crops up multiple times; short adverts. 5 seconds. Maybe 10 seconds at a push. Those commenter's who suggest this are hitting the proverbial nail on the proverbial head. This is exactly what the Internet advertising medium needs. Short, sharp adverts that get the point across and/or highlight the brand before the viewer even has time to look away. Think about it for a second. What can you usefully do in five seconds? What about ten? Answer; Jack Sh*t. But 30 seconds? That's more than enough time for me to hit the mute button, open a new tab and piss off to Hotmail quickly to have a look, or to hit up Facebook and see what my friends have been up to lately (like posting the URL of my blog on their profiles. Hint, hint. Nudge. Hint). So this is my rallying cry, my call to all companies that want to get some actual value out of their adverts; pick up the phone. Call your advertising agency. Tell them you want all your Internet video ads cut to 10 seconds or less. And please tell them to specify only one ad per three videos. Remember, it's about quality, not quantity. Grab our attention, don't bore us to death and make us resent you. Also, if you're reading this and happen to be the head of a top marketing agency then may I first praise you for your excellent choice in blogs (did you follow a link from Facebook by any chance?) then highly recommend that you fire anyone in your company who's earning over $50,00o per year while still churning out 30 second ads for your clients online campaigns. But don't fire Big Ben Roethlisberger!! (See that segue? As slick as a bone dry shower mat). I mean it though. I've said before that love or hate Roethlisberger, the guy can flat out play. He's a serious tough guy, he's hard to bring down in the pocket, keeps plays alive long after they should have died, makes good decisions in the critical moments of games and most importantly; he's a leader. Don't believe me? Check out this video from NFL.com (enjoy the advert by the way). What you see is the hidden value of guys like Ben Roethlisberger. Calming people down when they get too excited. Lifting them up when they get down. But perhaps most importantly serving as the coach among the players, helping the staff to reinforce a team first, team focused message. As divisive as they may be in the public arena and among some fans, it's players like Roethlisberger and Hines Ward who have helped the Steelers to seamlessly integrate many of their rookies into the first team, which allows them to keep rolling year after year, despite a fairly equal turnover in personnel when compared to other NFL teams. I also want to take the opportunity to call on another of NFL.com's videos, this one to be precise. This is going to serve two purposes. Firstly, as an addition to the post I did the other day on momentum/psychology etc, I want you to watch the video and pay close attention to the Packers players. Look at their body language and demeanor. Listen to their voices, and pay as much attention to how they're saying things as to what they're actually saying. What we see is a progressive rise in apparent confidence as the game progresses. Maybe it's just me. Maybe I'm one of the few people who are interested by this kind of thing. But what I see is a fairly clear sign of how repeated success builds the psychological momentum for the Packers players to the point where they almost appear to be playing for fun rather than in a stressful divisional round playoff game against a number one seeded team. The other thing that caught my eye (or rather, ear) watching this video was the moment right before half time when Mike Smith calls for a field goal with 10 seconds left on the clock. His experience and knowledge says "go get the three points before the half and bring this one in close". What happens next is a disaster. Although we can't hear who it is, someone obviously says to Smith that they'd like to take another offensive play and get more yards for the field goal shot, to which Smith fatefully (but to my ears reluctantly) agrees. He makes sure to emphasise the point about throwing the ball out of bounds if it's not there and again re-emphasises the need for the field goal, being a veteran enough coach to understand how valuable those three points can be right before the half. Instead he ends up with a pick returned for a TD and instead of going into the tunnel potentially at 17-21, or even failing the field goal attempt 14-21, the Falcons go in facing a 28-14 deficit with their QB having the wind knocked out of his sails somewhat. What is it I've been saying a lot on this blog lately? "Know Thyself" Smith knew. He knew because of almost thirty years of experience as a coach in one role or another. He knew how much that field goal meant and when you see him throw down his gameplan you can just tell that he realises what has just happened, what a hole his team has just found itself in. Watching Tramon Williams run back that pick for a TD Smith must have been thinking "why didn't I just take the field goal?". And he would have been right 10/10. Trust your judgement Mike. And "Know Thyself"! Right, Conference Championship preview time! Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears Only the second time these two have met in the postseason? Really? Well they picked a hell of a year to match up again! Both teams have had their ups and downs and now it's time to settle an old score. At least until next season. Now, outside of their obvious rivalry is the contrasting light in which these two teams were held prior to the season. The Packers were headed for the Super Bowl we all said. The Bears were not. I for one had the Bears pegged for defeat in Week 1. And 2. And 3. I saw them taking an epic nosedive that would have made any WW2 Dauntless pilot sweat with it's acuteness. But they didn't. The Bears instead scratched and clawed and maybe rode their luck a little on their way to the 2010 NFC North title. For that I have to take my hat off to them. That includes Julius Peppers as well. When the Bears splashed out in free agency for Peppers I thought it might have just sealed their fate. My suspicion was that with the cash in the bag, and given the reports about Peppers coming out of Carolina, that he might just roll into work and do enough to keep everyone sweet without really pushing the boundaries. I was wrong. Peppers has been just the tonic for the Bears D-line. Positioned opposite the annoyingly hard to spell Israel Idonije, Peppers has spent more time in the oppositions backfield than some of their own quarterbacks, wreaking havoc along the way. With solid play from the Bears linebacking corps and sufficient play from the secondary, Chicago has turned itself into a contender. Of course the play of Jay Cutler has helped as well. At first it seemed like a lost cause. Cutler struggled and Mike Martz seemed to be determined to roast him over his own personal spit, throwing in pass play after pass play. Cutler was repeatedly dropping back and staring into the teeth of doom as team after team found it's pass rush swarming home. The culmination had to be the "9 sacks in one half" performance against the Giants. But the Bears still found ways to win games. Somehow, I'm still not really sure how, they managed to hang in there and keep fighting. They managed to win games still, even despite Cutler. Then along the way someone presumably pulled Mike Martz to one side and quietly whispered into his ear; "what the f**k are you doing to my QB?". From that point onwards, the Bears offense has undergone a mini-revival. Cutler actually looks like all the hype we've been hearing for the last few years. He throws more accurately now. He makes much, much better decisions. His O-line doesn't have to block for 40 seconds to stop him getting sacked. The Bears even run the ball more now and they're even half decent at it! So having built Chicago up to such levels, the task of beating them now seems insurmountable. Well, not quite. It is going to take a pretty handy performance to pull it off though. Enter then, the Green Bay Packers. If anyone can do it, the Pack can. Can't they? This is the Green Bay Packers who everybody thought would sweep the NFC North and ride to the Super Bowl in a blaze of glory. When I say everyone I of course exclude the more delusional section of the Vikings fan base, but if you can't bash a division rival then who can you bash? Moving on, the Packers ended up not living up to the hyperbole and came into the playoffs as the sixth seed. A season of key injuries and some disappointing results had seemingly hijacked the Packers season at regular points, but they fought back. Still, this was hardly Super Bowl material. Or was it? When they won, they usually won well. When they lost, they usually did so with that sense of "we could have had that one". Thus the Packers may have entered the playoffs as the lowest seed in the NFC, but they were still being treated as a hot tip to make the Super Bowl. What followed were two games that were not the NFC Championship game but were touted as such by many. The Eagles under Mike Vick were seen as probably having the best shot among NFC teams at beating someone like the Steelers or Patriots in the Super Bowl, purely it would seem off the back of Vick's play making ability. Yet they crashed out at the hands of Green Bay. Then came the number one seed Falcons. For the Packers it was "the real" NFC Championship game part II. And they won it. Which finally means that Green Bay can take on Chicago in the NFC Championship game part III ("The Wrath of Kuhn". Or is it "The Search For Starks"?). Or as it's otherwise known; just the proper NFC Championship game. So who will win? I'm not sure. Personally I think it's going to hinge on the Packers pass rush. I have no worries about their offense. They're good enough that they can protect Rodgers and that Rodgers can get the ball out to his excellent receivers. But can the Bears do the same? Can their O-line handle B.J. Raji, Clay Matthews, Charles Woodson coming off the edge etc. I think if the Packers can get a sack or two early on, it'll probably be enough to knock Cutler off his rhythm and set Chicago's offense back to a point from which it can't recover. From the Bears perspective I think they have to find a way to slow down said Packers pass rush. The screen game to Matt Forte is an unheralded weapon that they have up their sleeve. If they can mix that in with a solid dose of running to keep Rodgers, Jennings and co. off the field, they'll be in with a shot. A special teams return or two from Devin Hester wouldn't go amiss either. New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers I don't know about anyone else, but I kind of feel a little deflated this week. Last week we had the latest installment of the Steelers/Ravens rivalry, followed by the main event bout between the brash, trash talking Jets and the calm, surgical precision of the hotly tipped Patriots. This week in comparison has been something of an anticlimax. I'm not sure why though. The AFC Championship game promises to be every bit as tantalising as last weeks offering and probably more so than the NFC game. With the defense orientated Steelers hosting the defense orientated Jets, a true tough guy clash is on the cards. Two hitting teams who love nothing more than to get in your face and turn it into a fight. Or as it's otherwise known; a true football game. Any notion that this will be like the Colts/Saints Super Bowl of last year, a "basketball on grass" type game between two offenses, should be buried right now alongside the Jets game ball from "that" Patriots encounter. Of course this is the perfect way to set up a 45-42 thriller, but somehow I doubt that. Not when Rex Ryan will be dipping deep into his playbook for ways to confuse and contain Ben Roethlisberger. And sure as hell not with Mark Sanchez on the field. Period. I'm sorry, I don't trust Sanchez. I know people bang on about his record in the playoffs, but to counter that I would point out that while Sanchez may sound like a tennis player, he's not. He's a football player. Which means that there are 52 other guys who win every game that he wins and probably have more of a cumulative impact. Which on balance isn't that hard. Sanchez has his moments of brilliance. At times he's unlucky with his receivers dropping passes. But it cannot be denied that a lot of the time Sanchez looks like he'd be more at home in the UFL. Now put that up against probably the premier defense in the NFL this season. Sure the Steelers finished behind the Chargers for total yards conceded, but they topped the list for just about every other category going. You name it and the Steelers were leading the way in it. All season long they've been collecting sacks, tackles for loss, pass break ups and fines like they were the latest collectible treasures of the Western world. Now tell me, on any given snap would you really bet the house on Sanchez versus that D? What about LaDanian Tomlinson? There's been a lot of talk about the fact that a Jets win will finally see Tomlinson reach the big game. But how will he match up against the Steelers front seven? That's not just your average run of the mill rush defense right there. It's not the Bills and it's not the Patriots with their weak front sevens. That's the 2010 Steel Curtain, built for a purpose. Honestly, I can't see it happening, not on a regular basis. That then means that the Jets defense has to come up big. If we're looking at maybe one TD and one or two field goals from the offense, then the defense is going to have to truly earn it's money. "Revis Island" and Antonio Cromartie are going to have to lock down Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown over the top, and Hines Ward underneath. The pass rush is going to have to find it's way home to Big Ben, keeping him tucked up nicely in the pocket and finally corralling him before he has a chance to launch a bomb downfield. In other words this is it. It truly is "put up or shut up" time for Rex Ryan. He's done a great job, much better than most people realise, in somehow bringing his team to two consecutive AFC Championship games. But such an achievement will be somewhat swept under the carpet if he can't push his side over the top this time. It's the price you pay for being so brash and attention hungry. It's fine to go out and make ballsy statements, but at some point you've got to back them up or you just look like an ass. Now is the time for Rex Ryan and the Jets. Either way, it should be a hell of show.

Divisional round part 2

Wow. Just...... wow. Baltimore Ravens 24 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 31: At halftime it looked like it was all over. For a while there I was thinking to myself "All the those pundits, they nailed it. The Ravens are walking this one." But you just don't count the Steelers down and out that easy. No sir. The Ravens under went a second half implosion upon which the Steelers suddenly pounced to win it. A rough and tumble game, with hits and at times punches (and even a head butt) thrown back and forth, this rivalry game lived up to his hype 10x over. The only thing that didn't stand the test of expectation was the scoreline, which soared to unknown heights for this clash. Not that the defenses didn't have good games. The Ravens D put up six sacks, 6 tackles for loss, 8 QB hits, 5 passes defended and 2 forced fumbles. Terrell Suggs alone reaped 3 sacks, 2 tackles for loss, 2 QB hits and a forced fumble. The Steelers D were not to be out done though. 5 sacks, 7 tackles for a loss, 4 QB hits, an interception, 8 passes defended and a forced fumble. James Harrison led the way with 3 sacks, 3 tackles for loss, 2 QB hits and 2 passes defended. Joe Flacco was held to just 16/30 for 125 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Ben Roethlisberger did only a little better, with 19/32 for 226 yards and 2 TD's. Neither teams ground game found much life, as could be expected given the respective defenses, with Ray Rice being held to 32 yards and a touchdown from 12 carries (seriously, why only 12 carries when you were leading this game comfortably at one point?) and Rashard Mendenhall leading the Steelers with 20 carries for 46 yards and 2 touchdowns. Ultimately the Ravens killed themselves. Despite leading 21 to 7 at half time Rice only carried the ball 6 times in the second half. Are the Ravens taking the Fu...reakin' piss? 6 carries? What was I saying just last week about the Chiefs not sticking with hot hand Jamaal Charles? For the sake of Matt Cassel? Now you're telling me that the Ravens rate Joe Flacco over Ray Rice? That's horseshit. Someone in Baltimore obviously has a king sized hard on for Flacco and it potentially just cost their team a place in the AFC Championship game. "Know Thyself". I'm seriously considering renaming this blog after that quote. Congratulations to the Steelers for a very strong win. They progress to the championship game that will be played either a) in New England, should they beat the Jets tomorrow, or b) in Pittsburgh, should the Jets be victorious. Green Bay Packers 48 @ Atlanta Falcons 21: When John Kuhn ran in for a TD to tie the game at 14 a piece, it was looking like a classic shoot out might be in the making. The Falcons then drove the field, but Matt Ryan sold his receiver short (who then slipped trying to come back to the ball) and Tramon Williams picked off the pass in the endzone. Then the Packers went down the field themselves and took the 21-14 lead. Then they put the game away at 28-14. The Falcons were trying to pull off a desperately needed drive to get back 3 points before half time when Matt "Matty Ice" Ryan suddenly melted in the burning sun of the Packers rising corner Tramon Williams. The Falcons called a play that required Roddy White to run an out to the left. Unfortunately he ran at an angle towards the sideline right from the start, tipping Williams off. Williams had the position on White and Ryan should have just chucked it away or gone somewhere else. Instead he forced it and Williams returned it for a touchdown. The Packers took a lead the Falcons would never touch. But the Packers weren't done. They came back in the second half and drove multiple nails into the Falcons coffin, with two more touchdowns and two field goals. Aaron Rodgers finished the game with a stunning 31/36 for 366 yards and 3 TD's. James Starks carried 25 times for 66 yards. Greg Jennings had 8 catches for 101 yards. The Falcons numbers pale in comparison. Matt Ryan; 20/29 for 186 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs. Michael Turner; 10 carries for 39 yards and a TD. Mike Jenkins; 6 catches for 67 yards. On defense the Packers led a riot. 5 sacks, 6 tackles for loss, 6 QB hits, 2 interceptions, 2 passes defended and a forced fumble. LB Clay Matthews alone accounted for 2 sacks, 2 tackles for loss and 2 QB hits. It ended as a massacre. And this is precisely what I was talking about with Green Bay's potential. All season long they've had this capability within them, to walk onto the field and utterly dominate an opponent, which made their losses in the regular season all the more frustrating for Packers fans. Finally they seem to be getting into the swing of things just at the right moment. Next up is a guaranteed road trip to face the winner of the Seahawks/Bears game. Which reminds me... Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears: Ok Seattle, you knocked off the Saints. Now can you pull off a miracle twice and beat the Bears too? Again the Seahawks have that punchers chance of knocking the Bears out. But it will be much tougher this time around. This is a Bears D that is basically built to stop teams like Seattle; playing a mix of true cover 2 and "Tampa 2", the Seahawks might find Bears defenders dropping into all the different places where they'd otherwise like to put the ball. The Bears pass rush is vastly superior to the Saints, with out the need to bring five man pressures on most plays and finally the Bears defense will be a much tougher nut to crack on the ground. There's a risk here of talking about the Bears much like most people were talking about the Saints last week, but the simple fact of life is that this Bears team is much stronger defensively than the Saints, albeit with a little less punch on offense. Yes, the much maligned Jay Cutler has the chance to finally win his playoff stripes. All he has to do is handle the Seahawks pass rush, which is a lot easier than it sounds, and then get the ball to playmakers like Devin Hester and Johnny Knox, which is also a lot easier than it sounds. But I'm leaning towards the side that says well done to Seattle for coming this far, but you're probably not going any further. The combo of defensive ends Israel Idonije and Julius Peppers is unlike anything the Seahawks line has seen for a while, and given the pretty shoddy nature of the Seahawks O-line it might very well get ugly, quickly. But then that's what everyone was saying about the game with the Saints last week. The winner will host Green Bay in the NFC Championship game. New York Jets @ New England Patriots: Let's face it, this game is probably more hotly anticipated than even the Ravens/Steelers game was. For that we have to thank the big mouth of Rex Ryan and his Jets players who decided that rather than just leaving the Hornets nest alone, they would instead endeavour to poke it repeatedly with the biggest stick they could find until it fell off the tree and split. Probably even more entertaining was listening to Wes Welker slip as many foot references into his press conference as possible (I believe he hit eleven in just under 8 mins). But the time is at hand now to find out who has put their best foot forward and who's been putting their foot in their mouth. On paper, it looks like the Jets are about to get brutally crushed beneath Belichicks boot (and Super Bowl ring(s)) much as they did in week 13 (45-3). Just the other day I put up the pictorial proof on this very site that Darrelle Revis can be beaten. We don't need pictures to tell us that Antonio Cromartie can beaten, or that he is a little, shall we say, "tackle shy". Probably the weakest link, and Rex must know it, is quarterback Mark Sanchez. His only stroke of luck is that the Patriots haven't exactly been the masters of the blitz this year. Otherwise he could be in for a tough day. This Patriots secondary has already shown a taste for interceptions and any flutter balls from Sanchez will be in dangerous territory with the Pats lurking around every corner. Oh, and this before we get to the small matter of the Patriots offense. Tom Brady. Deion Branch. Wes Welker. Aaron Hernandez. Rob Gronkowski. Danny Woodhead. Julian Edelman. BenJarvus-Green Ellis. Brandon Tate. Should I stop now? The Patriots offense is playing as well as any in the league has this season. Drive after drive, like a methodical robotic machine, the Patriots have driven down the field time and again, with Brady firing the ball in all directions and ably supported (for a change) by the solid running game. This is genuinely a scary offensive team that gives Defensive coordinators nightmares. But are they unbeatable? No. Not by a long shot. Aside from regular season losses pre-Randy Moss trade, the Patriots were also taken to the wire by a Packers team that was missing Matt Flynn. The key was physical football on offense that kept the ball away from Brady, and a decent pass rush on offense. People forget that under constant, heavy pressure, Brady is just as susceptible to mistakes as you or eye in our daily work (well, almost). And it turns out that those things are precisely what the Jets specialise in. Their ground game is infinitely better than their passing attack and Rex Ryan is one of the acknowledged masters of the blitz in this league. He also showed his tactical prowess last week against the Colts, leaving gaping holes in his line for the Colts to run at, knowing full well that the ball out of Peyton Mannings hands was a good thing and that the Colts could not sustain any kind of successful rushing attack for the duration of the game. What will Rex Ryan come up with for the Patriots? I'm not sure, but you can bet that Bill Belichick is standing on the opposite sideline with an equally impressive game plan in hand. It's going to be fun to watch, and even more fun if the Jets lose. I'm not sure if the slice of the humble pie they'll have to eat will fit inside the state of New York. Plus, who's going to foot the bill for it?