Dive/Toss play

So I just have time to throw this up before I must depart to the land of sheep. No, not Wales. I mean going to sleep. Ok this is going all kinds of wrong. Let's just get to the point.

One play in particular intrigued me during the Eagles/Falcons game last Sunday night and I want to throw it out there using my new diagram drawing skills (uh huh, stop laughing). The reason it caught my eye is because it shows that the old styles of football never really seem to die. They just disappear and then reappear every now and again.

The play in question is a fake toss into a dive play, from a split backs formation, that harks back to the sort of seventies and eighties style of football. Here's the picture;

And no, I still haven't figured out to stop Blogger from blurring the ass out of the image. But there you go. I even coloured the offense in a shade of green to represent the Eagles... albeit in a shade of green not entirely representative of the Eagles uniforms. I've also omitted the three wide receivers and the corners covering them, because this is a running play and receivers not named Heinz Ward never seem to block these days anyway.

What you can see is the center and left guard doubling down on one of the defensive tackles. The Left tackle is supposed to pull and trap block the other defensive tackle. The right guard pulls to help influence the defense and then takes the end, or if he pushes too far upfield then he ignores him and goes for the "S" backer. The right offensive tackle comes up and then cuts inside to wall off the mike linebacker. Now it is a simple matter for the quarterback to pivot out, fake the toss to the running back on the right who immediately darts outward at the snap, before actually handing off to the left back, marked in the image with a blue line.

It's a simple yet cunning play, reminiscent of a bygone era, right down to the formation. What always makes me chuckle as well (being the sad bastard that I am) is that this is precisely the kind of play teams like the Steelers would use, only for them to be described as a "downhill, smash mouth, power football" team. Except this play is anything but smash mouth. It's a finesse play, based on angles.

You have a double team. You have a tackle pulling to trap one of the defensive tackles. You have a guard pulling to trap an end. You have another tackle heading upfield to blindside the poor "Mike" backer. This is not grinding it out on the ground football. This is a play that involves deception, quick feet, precision practice and great technique. It is the complete opposite of "ground and pound" as far as the running game is concerned.

And that's why I love this kind of play so much. It speaks of the versatility of the old split back sets. And it demonstrates the creativity, tactics and finesse that a running game can possess. A lot of people associate running the football with being an inferior method of moving the ball. They consider it a method for the dumb knuckle heads of the footballing world, compared to the skill and artistry of the passing game. I believe those people simply don't understand the running game and the true depth that it offers.

Of course we'll gloss over the fact for now that the left tackle missed his block, and as a result Falcons defensive tackle Peria Jerry got a clean hit on Vick who then fumbled the ball away...

Hey, there are good running games and there are bad running games. Then there's the Eagles.

On a quick note, you're more likely to see the play above run out of the I-formation in the modern NFL and indeed it has been making a strong comeback in recent years.

On another quick note, I'll be back Saturday night with my picks for the weekend.

2011 NFL Draft; The Atlanta Falcons

It's a funny old thing, the draft.

Traditionally there is a spectrum, somewhere upon which most people fall, with "draft for needs" at one end and "take the best player on the board" at the other.

Normally speaking, teams tend to flirt with both ends of the scale at some point, usually drafting the best player available early and filling needs later on. Take my 49ers for a moment, who kicked off their draft with a DE in Aldon Smith, even though the big need was at corner. They then filled this need later on with lower picks.

Some teams will just purely live and die by their boards, taking whatever comes up. The Raiders are a prime example; if it's fast in the 40-yard dash, they'll pick it.

Very rarely however do you see teams go balls to the wall in the first round and draft a pure need, especially if it means sacrificing a lot to get it. Such teams often believe that overall their team is fine, they're just missing one or maybe two pieces that will complete the puzzle.

This is where the two ends of this thread link together and we get around to talking about the Falcons. They swapped first rounders in this draft with the Browns, but also gave Cleveland their second and fourth round picks in 2011, plus their first and second rounders in 2012.

All in all, that's a hell of a gamble. Your losing two picks this year you could use to make your team better. A team that I would hasten to suggest isn't quite as good overall as the Falcons seem believe it is. Now the future picks is an up in the air question. The league warned teams that future picks might be in jeopardy due to the labor dispute and so many would argue that the Falcons might not be giving up as much as we all think.

But that depends on whether you seriously believe that the league and players wont come to some agreement by next year, or whether indeed you believe like me that all of this back and forth bullshit in the courts is nothing more than a game of chess designed to earn the best possible negotiating position for when the parties finally sit down and hash out the deal.

Come next year then, the Falcons are going to have to hope that their strategy in 2011 brought them a Super Bowl, because their next draft class sure as hell isn't going to.

Now all of this might lead you to believe that I don't like Julio Jones who they traded up to get. And the answer to that is; I don't. For some reason I keep mentally confusing him with A.J. Green but that's another story entirely not relevant to this post. But even if Jones was a great player, was trading away all that lovely pickage worthwhile?

My immediate thought is; no. Wide receivers have a notoriously difficult transition to the NFL, where suddenly they find their route tree has expanded from a few simple quicks and intermediates plus the odd deep pattern and some screens, to a list as long as your arm combined together into a series of plays that make a playbook of inhuman size.

Also, the demands on receivers become much greater. They're expected to run routes with a very high degree of precision and to make potentially one of multiple decisions mid route based on the coverage presented, which at this level can get very complex, very quickly.

Thus I personally feel that wide receiver is just about the last position (except maybe running back) that I would be happy to chuck a haul of picks at in order to fill. And even if I did, Julio Jones would not be my man.

I just find him a little... underwhelming. I turned on the first game expecting to see this super wide receiver who everyone has been saying is pure first round potential, and what I saw was Mike Sims-Walker of the Jaguars; not a bad receiver, but not exactly a franchise player. And not really a first rounder.

Given the amount of picks that were sacrificed I really don't have a good feeling at all about this pick. I understand that the Falcons are a little short at the position, but there were other players who could have been snagged later, and for much better value. Obviously the team in Atlanta disagree.

Next up is LB Akeem Dent, taken in the 3rd round. From what I've seen..... meh.

The first time around that I watched one game I was quite pleased and thinking "this is looking good". At which point I realised that I'd been watching the wrong guy (Christian Robinson). When I went back again I already knew what the answer was going to be because I'd spent the entire game the first time around (still with me?) moaning about, "Jesus, if only that other kid would get off his arse and do something! Nice stance though..."

As you've probably already guessed, that other kid was Dent. And yep, he does take a good, low stance, ready to burst away and make a play. The trouble is he comes out of said stance rather lethargically and then has a tendency to run around the field at half speed and distinctly looking like he's trying to avoid getting his kit dirty.

We can surmise that this is half speed simply because anytime he's asked to rush the QB he promptly gets on his horse and comes flying downhill like a bullet out of a gun, sniffing the glory of a sack. Unfortunately his block destruction skills are about as developed and well honed as mine, i.e. not at all. Occasionally he makes a tackle when the play cuts back into him.

All in all, the Falcons draft is so far looking distinctly rubbish from the viewpoint of my pompous mountain here behind a keyboard.

Whose next? Jacquizz Rodgers? Now we're getting somewhere!

Taken in the fifth, Rodgers is quite a handy player to have in your backfield. Vision is questionable at times if I'm completely honest, but speed, agility and balance are very good. Luckily for Jacquizz, the Falcons tend to play very much an old school style "follow the Fullback into the hole" type running game, where bad vision is less of a problem. Note I said "less" of a problem not "no" problem.

He should make a useful change of pace to Michael Turner. The trouble the Falcons have had with their running game is that trying to beat teams down with Turner every game has proven a successful tactic, but also leads to him spending more time on the bench in the future than they would like as he nurses various injuries.

Rodgers offers them a legitimate alternative runner who isn't just there to take pressure off Turner, but is actually a threat to go the distance in and of himself. With that breakaway speed and cutting ability, Rodgers has something of the Chris Johnson about him. He's not quite that fast, but one on one with a safety I can see him being just as deadly.

On to round six and it's time to take a punt (chortle, chortle) on Matt Bosher, the punter/kicker from Miami. At which point I have to stop, laugh, and then recompose myself. I have nothing against punters and kickers and in fact I accept, probably more than most, how valuable a decent punter/kicker can be.

But I also live in a country where two of the main sports are Association Football (otherwise known as Soccer) and Rugby Union Football (otherwise known as... Rugby Union). Therefore I can confidently tell you that while good kicking is by no means a widely possessed skill, it's also really not that hard to develop with a bit of good coaching and a healthy dose of practice.

No really, it's not that hard.

For the cost of using a draft pick and the associated salary on a Punter/Kicker, you can instead invest in a half decent kicking coach (I'll take $50,000 a year which is less than a practice squad player, keepingthechainsmoving@live.co.uk ) and just train some undrafted kid to get a bit better.

Onwards and upwards then, like a line drive punt with plenty of hang time, into round seven where the Falcons had two picks. First up is offensive guard Andrew Jackson from Fresno State, another player that I had to go back and have a look at.

Except I can't, because for the life of me I cannot beg, borrow, steal, find, stumble across, unearth or otherwise get hold of anything that might be remotely considered "film" of the Fresno State offense.

So it comes down then to Cliff Matthews, Defensive End from South Carolina. Who I think Atlanta have done well to pick up. He's not a bad kid, pretty quick with good technique. His tackling is usually pretty good and he works hard to chase the play.

Take those attributes and put him on a D-line with guys like John Abraham and Kroy Biermann, who can spend the next year or two teaching him how to be a professional and how to develop himself as a Defensive End, and you have a recipe for a good shot at a half decent career.

Overall then, I'd say the Falcons kind of arsed this draft up, unless of course Jackson turns out to be beast, Rodgers runs for 2,000 yards as a rookie and Matthews starts trucking people from day one. I just can't see it myself.

Now I promised myself I wouldn't do the redundant A, B, C thing, not least because most analysts don't even seem to understand what separates a C from a B on their own grade rankings. Instead I'm going with more of the verbal, generalisation type approach.

That is to say, I personally believe that the Falcons had a great chance to get better in this draft and build the foundation of a perennial playoff team, but instead have sold this and next years draft down the river while making very little discernible impact in the short term, and probably not a huge deal more in the long term either.

And yeah, I would rate this as being worse than the Seahawks draft. Much worse. Next up, the Carolina Panthers, probably some time over the weekend. I'm hoping to string this series out a little, so as to give both you and me a meaningful source of football to talk about in the next long month or two.

NFC South Prospects

So I planned this going up earlier, but when you over sleep, you over sleep. Again, we'll do this alphabetically. Atlanta Falcons: Having stormed the regular season, it might be easy to think that Atlanta will simply come back next year and everything will be the same once more. Right? They won 13 games. 13!!! Surely that's not the kind of team you need to go toying around with? But it is. We can't get away from the fact that Atlanta did, at many times, ride their luck. Trust me, I'm a 49ers fan. We took a bitter loss early-ish in the season when we should have walked home safely with the win. Unfortunately our defensive backs are fond of carrying the ball on interception and fumble returns as if they were parading the Super Bowl around Candlestick Park. Now I should temper that by saying that you don't win 13 games purely on the back of luck. Nobody is that lucky. It does take some input for the players and coaches beyond just "show up, be lucky". But the stage is set for potentially a big fall in 2011, so free agency and the draft could be a dicey time for the Falcons this year. In free agency both the Falcons punter and kicker are up for unrestricted free agency, as are some other important names like; offensive linemen Justin Blalock, Harvey Dahl & Tyson Clabo, WR Brian Finneran, and running backs Jerious Norwood and Jason Snelling. That's a big loss to the Falcons if those guys leave. The offensive line has been a consistent strength for Atlanta over the last few seasons, while Norwood and Snelling have been solid back ups to Michael Turner who has had some issues with injury. If all of those guys leave, expect the Falcons to take a big step back right there. On the restricted list is two names that are also worth mentioning. One is Brent Grimes, the cornerback who had an exceptional season for Atlanta this year. The other is receiver Eric Weems, who became a big impact player in the return game. As restricted free agents their departure is less likely, but don't forget for example that the Patriots are lurking and have two picks in every round. Belichick might just feel like parting with a pick to acquire a player of Grimes's ability to boost his ailing secondary. As for the draft? Even if the Falcons get most of their free agents back, their offensive line could use a lower pick for some depth, their linebacking corps could use one more key player to take the field with Lofton and Weatherspoon, and the defensive back corps badly needs upgrading. A shiny new receiver wouldn't go amiss either. Atlanta picks 27th overall in the first round. Looking ahead to 2011 it could go either way. The Buccaneers are on the rise. The Panthers may be too, depending on how well their off season goes. The Saints had another strong year in 2010 and so Atlanta's 13 win record is in serious danger this season. If they stumble in the off season it is perfectly foreseeable that they might finish 3rd in 2011. Still, they always have Matty "Ice". Yeah, don't hold your breath. Carolina Panthers: It's all change in Carolina after a shockingly bad season. Ron Rivera, former Chargers defensive coordinator, will be taking over the head coaching role this season. Good luck to you sir. Rob Chudzinski will run the offense, having previously served as the Chargers tight ends coach. That might be a surprise success (notice I said might) as the Chargers have done well at the tight end position recently and Rivera obviously knows the guy from working with him, so he must have some faith in his abilities. Sean McDermott, formerly of the Eagles, will take over the defense. Which is where things get interesting. Both Rivera and McDermott are more 3-4 pedigree guys. The Panthers are all about the 4-3. Will they take the same approach Washington did in the off season and try to make the switch to a 3 man front? They're certainly bursting with pass rush talent, so maybe they'll try and get some of those guys to take their hands out of the dirt and rush from a two point stance? It's not all doom and gloom though. McDermott may have come from a 3-4 lineage, but the Eagles have essentially been running 4-3 for the last couple of seasons so he has some experience handling this type of front. It's just the tools that pose the big problem, and how to get the best out of them. In free agency the Panthers have a long list to keep an eye on. Some of the names that jump out at me are tight ends Jeff King and Dante Rosario, whose departure would leave the Panthers with just Gary Barnidge. That's not good, especially as the Panthers have leaned on their tight ends a lot lately. King and Rosario (and Barnidge) don't get anywhere near enough credit for what they do for the Panthers. The big name on the way out of course is RB DeAngelo Williams. I've said it before and I'll say it again; I think the Panthers should let him leave. They have Jonathan Stewart, who is a very good back. They have Mike Goodson who is a pretty good back up. They really don't need Williams now. Better to let him go and use some of the free cap money to improve the rest of the team. Two other names that stick out from the list are Center Ryan Kalil and QB Matt Moore. Moore is the big one. Do they bring him back for another shot? Do they roll with Jimmy Clausen and Tony Pike? Or do they hit the draft and bring in yet another QB fresh from the college game? Glad I'm not running the Panthers, that's all I'll say. Which brings us neatly to the draft itself. They have the number one pick overall and they have needs all over the shop. If they can, my guess is the Panthers will drop down the draft ladder. They seriously need the extra picks to start covering all these holes. Wide Receiver is a huge hole, defensive back is a huge hole. They could use another quality linebacker. They need a QB from somewhere. And they might need some new tight ends as well. Honestly, 2011 for the Panthers will center on rebuilding. Panther fans should brace for another crappy season, not because they can't compete but because it is time for someone to come in and stamp their mark on this team. That means saying "this is how we're going to play, but it'll take some time to get it right, even if we lose some along the way". Patience from the fan base will be required. More importantly, patience from the ownership will be required too. Good luck Carolina, I don't hate you really. Well. Maybe a little. New Orleans Saints: The Saints had the dubious honour of being the first NFL team to get dumped in the playoffs by a team with a losing record. Nice work guys. But they did us all a favour really. They proved that the "any given Sunday" rule can still happen in the modern NFL and that even a 7-9 team should be allowed in if it wins it's division. So where now for the Saints? Well, they've managed to keep hold of their coaching staff, but free agency is going to be all kinds of fun. By my maths they have 27 unrestricted free agents. Twenty seven. If you draw up the list of players at each position that will be left if all the free agents leave, it looks like a High School team where the offensive starters are defensive backups and vice versa. I'm just going to list some of the notables; Jermon Bushrod OT, Heath Evans FB, Jonathan Goodwin C, Anthony Hargrove DE/DT, Roman Harper S, Julius Jones RB, Kawika Mitchell LB, Lance Moore WR, Courtney Roby WR, Scott Shanle LB, Darren Sharper S and Pierre Thomas RB. Now as far as the running backs are concerned, that's not a huge issue for the Saints. They have spares so to speak. Wide receiver is an issue of sorts, given how wide open the Saints like to play. Charles Brown could fill for Bushrod, depending on how well he's developed since the 2010 draft. But linebacker and safety are two huge concerns for the Saints. Picking 24 in the draft, I see this being a very defense heavy approach. Unless they can bring some guys back or reach out into free agency and find some talent, the linebacking and safety corps are going to be barren come draft day. I imagine the Saints will prioritise their pass rush, given their tendency to jump ahead of teams in games and forcing them to pass to get back into the game. 2011 outlook then? Erm, grim I would say. Sort of. The Buccaneers are rising. Atlanta can come back strong. Carolina will be... Carolina. But the Saints defense is going to be holding its breath this offseason. If they can't recoup their loses then it's going to be a miserable year for the 2011 Saints. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Ah Tampa Bay, the pirates that you can trust. Sort of. They had a resurgence in 2010 off the back of some exceptional work by Josh Freeman. Sort of. And some greatly improved defensive play. Sort of. Free agency offers up a mixed bag for the Buc's. Some names stand out at me; Ronde Barber CB, Quincy Black LB, Barrett Ruud LB and Jeremy Trueblood OT. Barber is a mixed bag. He's old, but he still seems to come up with plays now and again. Trueblood's loss will be a problem, but Black and Ruud are the main concerns. The Buc's have some talent at linebacker, but they need Ruud and Black back to support their defense. As for the draft, they pick at 20 which is almost unknown territory for the Buc's in recent years. Where will they go with this? I honestly am not sure. After last years performance in the draft and with signing undrafted free agents, the Buc's are in a nice spot. I imagine that the subject of running backs will eventually come up, as LaGarrette Blount can't do it all himself. A true pass rushing defensive end will probably top the list unless they decide to slide McCoy over (where he's shown potential). Another receiver would be nice, as well as another inside linebacker. Overall though, the 2011 Buccaneers have their sights on the playoffs. Their division could be in a very vulnerable state this year. If the Falcons lose their O-line and the Saints lose their defense, to free agency that is, then nothing is standing in the way of Tampa having a run at the division title. Even just a moderately good free agency and draft will set them up nicely. So with that, we come to the end of the NFC South 2011 preview thingy. Next up is the NFC West, which will be posted around Thursday or Friday. As for the CBA situation.... err, nothing has changed. We're still headed towards a delayed start to the 2011 season and honestly I've given up caring to some degree. The arguments being put forward by both sides are mundane in the extreme, neither side seems to really give a shit about the fans and their persistence in trying to convince us of how wonderful they are and how evil the other side is doesn't wash. As always in these things, it's all about the money and has nothing to do with the quality of the game and fairness. If it did, we could probably solve all this crap in a few hours with some strong coffee, swiss iced buns and a few well placed punches. Have a great day everyone.

Divisional round part 2

Wow. Just...... wow. Baltimore Ravens 24 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 31: At halftime it looked like it was all over. For a while there I was thinking to myself "All the those pundits, they nailed it. The Ravens are walking this one." But you just don't count the Steelers down and out that easy. No sir. The Ravens under went a second half implosion upon which the Steelers suddenly pounced to win it. A rough and tumble game, with hits and at times punches (and even a head butt) thrown back and forth, this rivalry game lived up to his hype 10x over. The only thing that didn't stand the test of expectation was the scoreline, which soared to unknown heights for this clash. Not that the defenses didn't have good games. The Ravens D put up six sacks, 6 tackles for loss, 8 QB hits, 5 passes defended and 2 forced fumbles. Terrell Suggs alone reaped 3 sacks, 2 tackles for loss, 2 QB hits and a forced fumble. The Steelers D were not to be out done though. 5 sacks, 7 tackles for a loss, 4 QB hits, an interception, 8 passes defended and a forced fumble. James Harrison led the way with 3 sacks, 3 tackles for loss, 2 QB hits and 2 passes defended. Joe Flacco was held to just 16/30 for 125 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Ben Roethlisberger did only a little better, with 19/32 for 226 yards and 2 TD's. Neither teams ground game found much life, as could be expected given the respective defenses, with Ray Rice being held to 32 yards and a touchdown from 12 carries (seriously, why only 12 carries when you were leading this game comfortably at one point?) and Rashard Mendenhall leading the Steelers with 20 carries for 46 yards and 2 touchdowns. Ultimately the Ravens killed themselves. Despite leading 21 to 7 at half time Rice only carried the ball 6 times in the second half. Are the Ravens taking the Fu...reakin' piss? 6 carries? What was I saying just last week about the Chiefs not sticking with hot hand Jamaal Charles? For the sake of Matt Cassel? Now you're telling me that the Ravens rate Joe Flacco over Ray Rice? That's horseshit. Someone in Baltimore obviously has a king sized hard on for Flacco and it potentially just cost their team a place in the AFC Championship game. "Know Thyself". I'm seriously considering renaming this blog after that quote. Congratulations to the Steelers for a very strong win. They progress to the championship game that will be played either a) in New England, should they beat the Jets tomorrow, or b) in Pittsburgh, should the Jets be victorious. Green Bay Packers 48 @ Atlanta Falcons 21: When John Kuhn ran in for a TD to tie the game at 14 a piece, it was looking like a classic shoot out might be in the making. The Falcons then drove the field, but Matt Ryan sold his receiver short (who then slipped trying to come back to the ball) and Tramon Williams picked off the pass in the endzone. Then the Packers went down the field themselves and took the 21-14 lead. Then they put the game away at 28-14. The Falcons were trying to pull off a desperately needed drive to get back 3 points before half time when Matt "Matty Ice" Ryan suddenly melted in the burning sun of the Packers rising corner Tramon Williams. The Falcons called a play that required Roddy White to run an out to the left. Unfortunately he ran at an angle towards the sideline right from the start, tipping Williams off. Williams had the position on White and Ryan should have just chucked it away or gone somewhere else. Instead he forced it and Williams returned it for a touchdown. The Packers took a lead the Falcons would never touch. But the Packers weren't done. They came back in the second half and drove multiple nails into the Falcons coffin, with two more touchdowns and two field goals. Aaron Rodgers finished the game with a stunning 31/36 for 366 yards and 3 TD's. James Starks carried 25 times for 66 yards. Greg Jennings had 8 catches for 101 yards. The Falcons numbers pale in comparison. Matt Ryan; 20/29 for 186 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs. Michael Turner; 10 carries for 39 yards and a TD. Mike Jenkins; 6 catches for 67 yards. On defense the Packers led a riot. 5 sacks, 6 tackles for loss, 6 QB hits, 2 interceptions, 2 passes defended and a forced fumble. LB Clay Matthews alone accounted for 2 sacks, 2 tackles for loss and 2 QB hits. It ended as a massacre. And this is precisely what I was talking about with Green Bay's potential. All season long they've had this capability within them, to walk onto the field and utterly dominate an opponent, which made their losses in the regular season all the more frustrating for Packers fans. Finally they seem to be getting into the swing of things just at the right moment. Next up is a guaranteed road trip to face the winner of the Seahawks/Bears game. Which reminds me... Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears: Ok Seattle, you knocked off the Saints. Now can you pull off a miracle twice and beat the Bears too? Again the Seahawks have that punchers chance of knocking the Bears out. But it will be much tougher this time around. This is a Bears D that is basically built to stop teams like Seattle; playing a mix of true cover 2 and "Tampa 2", the Seahawks might find Bears defenders dropping into all the different places where they'd otherwise like to put the ball. The Bears pass rush is vastly superior to the Saints, with out the need to bring five man pressures on most plays and finally the Bears defense will be a much tougher nut to crack on the ground. There's a risk here of talking about the Bears much like most people were talking about the Saints last week, but the simple fact of life is that this Bears team is much stronger defensively than the Saints, albeit with a little less punch on offense. Yes, the much maligned Jay Cutler has the chance to finally win his playoff stripes. All he has to do is handle the Seahawks pass rush, which is a lot easier than it sounds, and then get the ball to playmakers like Devin Hester and Johnny Knox, which is also a lot easier than it sounds. But I'm leaning towards the side that says well done to Seattle for coming this far, but you're probably not going any further. The combo of defensive ends Israel Idonije and Julius Peppers is unlike anything the Seahawks line has seen for a while, and given the pretty shoddy nature of the Seahawks O-line it might very well get ugly, quickly. But then that's what everyone was saying about the game with the Saints last week. The winner will host Green Bay in the NFC Championship game. New York Jets @ New England Patriots: Let's face it, this game is probably more hotly anticipated than even the Ravens/Steelers game was. For that we have to thank the big mouth of Rex Ryan and his Jets players who decided that rather than just leaving the Hornets nest alone, they would instead endeavour to poke it repeatedly with the biggest stick they could find until it fell off the tree and split. Probably even more entertaining was listening to Wes Welker slip as many foot references into his press conference as possible (I believe he hit eleven in just under 8 mins). But the time is at hand now to find out who has put their best foot forward and who's been putting their foot in their mouth. On paper, it looks like the Jets are about to get brutally crushed beneath Belichicks boot (and Super Bowl ring(s)) much as they did in week 13 (45-3). Just the other day I put up the pictorial proof on this very site that Darrelle Revis can be beaten. We don't need pictures to tell us that Antonio Cromartie can beaten, or that he is a little, shall we say, "tackle shy". Probably the weakest link, and Rex must know it, is quarterback Mark Sanchez. His only stroke of luck is that the Patriots haven't exactly been the masters of the blitz this year. Otherwise he could be in for a tough day. This Patriots secondary has already shown a taste for interceptions and any flutter balls from Sanchez will be in dangerous territory with the Pats lurking around every corner. Oh, and this before we get to the small matter of the Patriots offense. Tom Brady. Deion Branch. Wes Welker. Aaron Hernandez. Rob Gronkowski. Danny Woodhead. Julian Edelman. BenJarvus-Green Ellis. Brandon Tate. Should I stop now? The Patriots offense is playing as well as any in the league has this season. Drive after drive, like a methodical robotic machine, the Patriots have driven down the field time and again, with Brady firing the ball in all directions and ably supported (for a change) by the solid running game. This is genuinely a scary offensive team that gives Defensive coordinators nightmares. But are they unbeatable? No. Not by a long shot. Aside from regular season losses pre-Randy Moss trade, the Patriots were also taken to the wire by a Packers team that was missing Matt Flynn. The key was physical football on offense that kept the ball away from Brady, and a decent pass rush on offense. People forget that under constant, heavy pressure, Brady is just as susceptible to mistakes as you or eye in our daily work (well, almost). And it turns out that those things are precisely what the Jets specialise in. Their ground game is infinitely better than their passing attack and Rex Ryan is one of the acknowledged masters of the blitz in this league. He also showed his tactical prowess last week against the Colts, leaving gaping holes in his line for the Colts to run at, knowing full well that the ball out of Peyton Mannings hands was a good thing and that the Colts could not sustain any kind of successful rushing attack for the duration of the game. What will Rex Ryan come up with for the Patriots? I'm not sure, but you can bet that Bill Belichick is standing on the opposite sideline with an equally impressive game plan in hand. It's going to be fun to watch, and even more fun if the Jets lose. I'm not sure if the slice of the humble pie they'll have to eat will fit inside the state of New York. Plus, who's going to foot the bill for it?

Divisional Round preview (part 1)

So something has just occurred to me. After waking up and recovering from a night spent celebrating (read: drinking) due to my friends send off party for his old house (his home for some 20+ years now), I've just realised that I didn't do my preview for Saturday's games. If I'm quick, I might just be able to squeeze them in before kick off (4:30pm ET/8:00pm ET). Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers: This is the battle everyone has been talking about. The Ravens and the Steelers, clashing once more for playoff glory and the right to face the winner of the Jets/Patriots game in the AFC Championship. Oh, and there is also the small matter of one of the most intense rivalries in the NFL. Not only do the two teams go back and forth every year for bragging rights in the AFC North, but you get the distinct impression that there's a point of personal pride among two notoriously tough defenses as to who will give up the least ground, who will hit harder and who will weather that punishment the longest. This it would appear, is often just as important as the score. Certainly Baltimore would love nothing more than to pounce on their rivals today. Having won the first clash this season, the Ravens then went down at home in week 13 in probably one of the toughest and most entertaining defensive battles the league has seen in a while. It was a defensive play, Troy Polamalu coming free on a blitz, that forced the big play upon which the game ultimately hinged. Now the trash talk has been flying, especially from the Ravens side, as Baltimore looks to gain any edge it can coming into this game. It appears they've even been so successful that they've convinced a lot of people in the media that they're the favourites for this one now. Baltimore has, if nothing else, become the fashionable pick for this game. And there's a lot of reasons why that might be true. They have a truly excellent running back in Ray Rice. As a ball carrier his cutting ability and vision might just be unparalleled in the NFL right now. As a pass receiver he has a knack for finding space as he works against linebackers with his acceleration. In pass protection.... yeah, we'll leave that. The old axiom "if you're not going to say something nice, say nothing at all" applies here. They also have Joe Flacco, one of the better quarterbacks to enter the NFL in the last few years. Flacco has had his struggles, but he also had his moments. I fear that Flacco holds onto the ball too long for my liking and seems to struggle with his consistency, but he also has those periods where he finds a groove (or a lot of TE Todd Heap) and starts moving the chains. When he does that consistently, the Ravens have a great shot at winning. Every QB however needs an O-line and receivers, to which end the Ravens are so-so. Their O-line is.... "if you're not going to say anything nice." Well it's ok. I think sometimes people give them a little too much credit in the running game. Without the backs they have, I'm not sure Baltimore's rushing attack would be as productive. In pass protection the Ravens are also very up and down. One minute they're solid, then the next they're parting like the red sea. I don't trust them, lets put it that way. I do trust Anquan Boldin and the Ravens receiver corps though. They've managed to subtly avoid investing any youth in that group this season and it's had mixed results. They're usually pretty dependable pass catchers and also crisp route runners. They help Flacco by positioning themselves well in relation to covering defenders and they fight for every pass thrown their way. The trouble is, they're not exactly spring chickens, and of all the things a defense worries about, having the top blown off their coverage is not one of them. But who do I trust the most? The Ravens D. Let me read off some names for you; Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, Haloti Ngata, Ed Reed. Those are all players who have a case for being the number one at their position and that's just the tip, the tip, of the Ravens defensive iceberg. This unit has consistently shown it's pedigree throughout the season. Ngata fills holes on the line, breaks double teams and moves laterally down the LOS scrimmage like no other athlete on any NFL field currently. Ray Lewis fills the slots behind him always seeming to pop up in the right place as he reads the flow of the backs. He has a knack in pass coverage, especially when the intended play breaks down, of finding the QB's safety valve and coming up with the big play. Terrell Suggs is Terrell Suggs. Speed, power, great use of the arms, determination and relentless pursuit. These are all things that you don't ever have to hope you'll gte from Suggs, they're things that you know you will get from Suggs. Without question. And what's the best way to compliment a pass rushing beast, a fiend of the backfield? With a center fielder type safety who has range that sometimes defies belief and an instinct for making plays on the ball. Ed Reed is the perfect example of a defensive player whose experience and positioning can make up for the loss of a yard or two in pace. So with all that said, the Ravens are looking pretty good for the win now right? Don't be so sure. There's the small matter of the Steelers to contend with. You know, the Pittsburgh Steelers. That team, black and yellow uniforms, from Pennsylvania. A few Super Bowl rings I think. Maybe one or two. Or was it six? I forget. All I know is this; people are grossly underestimating the Steelers. Baltimore are good, but looking around right now and listening to everyone in collective press giving their opinions, you'd be forgiven for thinking that the Ravens had already got this one in the bag and were making enquiries to various hotels ahead of the AFC Championship game. Well let's just remind ourselves who the Steelers are; QB Ben Roethlisberger. Off field indiscretions aside (and don't forget that Roethlisberger has never been charged with anything), Roethlisberger is one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. That's just an irrefutable, inescapable fact. The guy has a cannon arm, he's big, tough and leads the league in highlight reel worthy escapes from the pocket. Like Flacco he has tendency to hold onto the ball far too long, but unlike Flacco he has developed the necessary skill set to counter that. Probably one of the most important of those skills is his ability to understand when even he, the current master of pocket escapology, is beaten. Whether it's throwing the ball away, flipping it away or just eating the sack, these are the skills that guys like Tony Romo and in particular Eli Manning haven't learnt, and probably never will judging by their performances in recent years. This gives the Steelers a huge weapon, as always. It provides them with the ability to make big plays deep down the field, while mitigating some of the risk involved with such "broken" plays. Given that they have Mike Wallace on their side, a deep threat receiver who has the potential to blast the roof off the the Ravens secondary, and you have a serious weapon for the Steelers to exploit. Their rushing attack isn't too shabby either. Rashard Mendenhall, Mewelde Moore, Issac Redman, Jonathan Dwyer. These are all good running backs who can make a difference in this game. Given the expected low scoring nature of the contest and the importance that field position could play, having a corps of solid running backs could be a serious advantage to the Steelers offense. A weakness could be their O-line. For whatever reason, Flozell Adams on the right hand side has been a real weak link. Maybe it's because he's more used to playing on the left, but whatever the problem is, it's a big one. The loss of Willie Colon and Max Starks has been huge for the Steelers. On the bright side, rookie Maurkice Pouncey (watch list) has done very well anchoring the line from the center spot and OG Chris Kemoeatu has played some excellent football too. Overall though, there is a certain vulnerability to this unit that the Ravens pass rush will look to exploit. On defense, things get much, much brighter. I'm not even going to ring off some names because a) you should know them all by now and b) there is too many to get through. The Steelers D is legitmately very, very deep at D-line and linebacker, although certain areas of the secondary give them the odd scare from time to time. But the numbers tell it all. The Steelers lead the entire league through the regular season in almost every single important defensive category. They are simply one of the finest units in the history of the NFL. Not just solid all round, which they are, but also packed with play making potential. This is why I find it so odd that hardly anyone fancies the Steelers, especially given that they're the home side. It'll be a close game, very close, and just like that week 13 meeting it might be that one big play makes all the difference. Given that knowledge you'd have to say that the Steelers have an offense less likely to flinch and give up the big turnover, while their defense is probably better prepared thanks to its depth of talent to force a big turnover out of the Ravens. If I was picking the game, a futile exercise that I've long since given up on, I imagine I would have picked the Steelers. But the Ravens aren't being hotly tipped without reason. As we've seen they do have a lot of talent on board and this one will might well go right down to the last possession. Enjoy it, because it's going to be one hell of a playoff game. Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons: Last week the Packers played in a game that was touted by some as the NFC Championship game come early. This week the Packers are playing in a game touted by some as the NFC Championship game come early. I'm detecting a running theme here, somewhere. My Spider sense tells me that a lot of people might believe the Packers are destined to play in the NFC Championship game. Or possibly three of them. Which wouldn't come as a surprise. The Packers are very, very good. Up and down that team, they have all kinds of goodness. Offense, defense, even the kicking game. They've soldiered on despite numerous injuries to key players and now here they are, in the divisional game. The problem is really one of potential. The Packers started the season with the potential to win the NFC North and go all the way to the Super Bowl. But unfortunately, potential is not always the most reliable indicator of success. It's the prime reason I've given up making picks, because picking teams is always based on potential. You're always trying to predict what will happen based on the knowledge that certain teams do certain things very well. I expected the Chiefs to come out running the ball from start to finish against the Ravens because of the success they've had doing that this season. They had the potential to dominate the clock and make life very difficult for the Ravens. Instead, they abandoned their running game and were cleaned off the field. This is the worry for the Packers. With that D-line and linebacking corps, they have the potential to cause the Falcons rushing game a lot of problems. They have the potential to put Matt Ryan under a lot of potential and their revamped secondary for 2010 has the potential to shut down Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez et al. But potential is an uncertain thing. Having beat the Eagles and creamed the Bills, the Packers were set for a week 3 pounding of the Bears, who had struggled to beat the Lions and Cowboys in the previous two weeks. Instead the Bears came out on top 20-17. Then Green Bay scraped past Detroit themselves, 28-26. Then somehow, god knows how, the Packers fell to the Redskins in week 5. Thus we've learnt that the Packers are great providing they actually do all the things that we expect them to. When they don't they fall flat on their faces. Despite all that defensive quality, despite Aaron Rodgers being a top QB in the NFL, despite a WR corps that's as good as any in the league, the Packers are more than capable of throwing it all away. Which is handy for the Falcons. They too have an excellent offense, led by Matt Ryan and supported by the able cast of Michael Turner, Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White. Their defense is strong, with LB Curtis Lofton as the center piece. Their pass rush was under rated coming into the season but now the names John Abraham and Kroy Biermann are synonymous with getting into the offensive backfield. Brent Grimes is possibly one of the best (and most highly under rated) corners in the league today. But the Falcons have been beneficiaries this season of some less than stellar play at times. Trust me, as a 49ers fans I watched in horror as we seemed to have the Falcons done and dusted, till a fantastic play combined with some rank stupidity led to a fumble that gave the ball back to the Falcons and set them up for the winning drive. At times they've been lucky, but when lady luck smiles on them, they pounce. In short, if you mess about with the Falcons, it will come back to haunt you. And that's what I think Green Bay fans should be concerned about and Atlanta fans should be highly optimistic about. It might only take one slip. It might only take one pick. It might be a fumble or a sack at an inopportune moment, but the Falcons are more than capable of winning it. If Green Bay can play their "A game", then I fear the Falcons impressive season will come to an end this Saturday night. But if they wince, flinch or slip up in any other way, it could be curtains for the Packers. The Falcons have it in themselves to win this. They just need Green Bay to open the door a little for them, then they can do the rest themselves. So even though the hype has been all focused on Green Bay, don't be surprised if you see the red and black of Atlanta in the NFC Championship game next week.

With no mid-week games this week (all on Sunday) it means I have a bit of time spare in this mid week. So I've now got the chance to do something a bit more fun with some more pictures, but first... I've remembered the thing that I'd forgotten at the end of yesterday's post. Picks. I finished the week at a tie, 8-8, which takes my season tally now to 121-103 after 16 weeks. Which, if I'm honest, is rubbish. Better luck next year by the looks of it. Now before we get onto the show and tell aspect of this, another article pointer for you. Another one from Michael Lombardi, and affirmation I feel that he indeed is the most improved analyst from any of the major networks. This is what I'm talking about when I say that Lombardi is at his best dishing out the cold, hard truth, as if he was sitting Jerry Jones down and trying to slap some sense into him. Which is something, be honest now, that we'd all pay to see. Right, pictures time. The images I have for you are unashamedly screen captured from NFL networks playbook show, as evidenced by the little playbook symbol in the corner. They have not been edited, so any symbols, lines or shapes etc are those put on by the show themselves and not by me. The original video can be found here. Now what we're looking at is the Saints driving in for a score against the Falcons. It's 3rd and 3 with the ball on the Falcons 6 yard line. What the analysts were interested in is kind of what I'm interested in, but for different reasons. Their focus was on the motion by Reggie Bush (number 25) who you can see just running down to the numbers at the bottom of the picture below, and the effect that this has on the linebacker to the weak side. The linebacker is drawn across to the middle of the defense as the coverage is shifted to accommodate for the motion. The Linebacker in question is now in the left of the two blue circles. The intent of the shows piece was to demonstrate how the crafty mind of Saints Head Coach Sean Payton produced an opening in the passing game through the use of motion (the "10 yards" you can see in the image above). But what I'm more interested in is the technique of the defender in the picture below, which is Falcons safety William Moore (they're the pair at the top of the picture in the first image). Whether Moore realises it or not, the ball is headed his way. It's third down, with just 3 yards to go, and of course the Saints are almost within touching distance of the end zone just to add to the problem. So why, my question goes, does Moore not bump the receiver? This is something that has been really bugging me over the last two years as I started taking more note of it. Moore is clearly aligned head up, man to man on the receiver. Now at this distance, I've always been led to believe (and indeed do believe) that you should be making strong physical contact with the receiver as he crosses the line of scrimmage. Otherwise there is no real benefit to standing that close; if you're not going to bump him, you might as well back up and give yourself a bit of a cushion. Think about this as well. Brees is in an empty set. If there is a blitz or the front four manage to beat a block, there is no help back there. Brees would be left to simply throw or run. You have to be thinking as a defensive back that if you can just delay the receivers release, then the pass rush will get home, or at least very close. It will also allow the linebacker inside of you to get into his drop and help you out. So bump the bloody receiver!! Instead what we get is what you see below: Moore backs off immediately at the snap (this is a few frames later). If you watch the original video it'll confirm that he makes no effort to even redirect this receiver, let alone get a solid bump on him. As you can see in the final image below, the receiver has plenty of room to make the catch without having to worry about Moore potentially breaking it up. And it just drives me nuts. From a coaching standpoint I am (ahem, was) more of an offensive guy. But seeing what is essentially free points being given away (something I should be delighted to see) really gets on my nerves. It goes back to the old argument of "you're paid millions of dollars, so why aren't you doing the basic stuff that college/high school kids are taught?" As a result of Moore's failure to get a good bump (and no, him being a safety is not an excuse) the Saints were able to snatch an easy TD. I guess it's just something about me. I don't like seeing this kind of thing handed away. I like seeing teams made to work hard for their points/wins. There probably was a point to this other than me just ranting to get something off my chest. But whatever that point was, has now been forgotten. Sod it.

Monday Night Football recap

New Orleans Saints 17 @ Atlanta Falcons 14: Honestly, if this is the best the NFC has to offer then I suspect the AFC teams heading into the playoffs are going to be licking their chops. With the win the Saints bagged a playoff spot, but to win the division they'll need some help from Carolina next week which is unlikely. Their more immediate concern might be their offense. Drew Brees was 35/49, which looks good on paper, but for just 302 yards leaves them with an average of just over 8 yards per pass. Brees also bagged 1 TD, but also 2 INT's, one of which was an absolute shocker that was returned for a touchdown. This was simply not good enough from either team. While some mistakes were punished, others went penalty free and that simply isn't going to happen in the playoffs. Both teams really need to knuckle down and focus this week. That also cost me another pick, taking me to 8-7 for the week. Now, before I head off to go and stab my voodoo doll of Sean Payton, I have two things to bring to your attention. The first is this article regarding some of the fines that were levied after week 15, including a $7,500 fine for a horse collar tackle. What I want you to take note of is the 341 comments. Juts read some of them. If the NFL has any questions about where the fans stand in regards to all these junk fines, I think they can find the answers there among the overwhelming hoard of negative comments. Which leads me to another article that has me questioning my most improved analyst blah, blah award. This article by Pat Kirwan makes him a strong contender as it vastly overshadows some of the shoddy work he put up earlier this year. In particular I'd like to point you towards the last point he makes (emphasis added by the way): "I don't care what teams publish as attendance at NFL games, there were way too many empty seats this weekend. The average fan simply can't afford to go to a game and I'm starting to think the clubs must get into the reality business and lower ticket prices -- or be prepared to play to half-filled stadiums." "I'm not here to name names, but it was embarrassing to see upper decks half-empty and even seats on the 50-yard line unused. The players need to look at the stadiums they play in and also realize that, unless there is a radical change, they too will suffer financially." "People can't afford to go to games, can't appreciate all the talk about how much money the players want, or see any logic in owners wanting to expand to 18 games. Let's stop thinking about the NFL machine and look at the empty seats and find a solution." As if by magic, Mr. Kirwan has been transformed from corporate spokesperson (like earlier in the season) to the voice of reason that echo's what the vast majority of NFL fans think. It's a miracle worthy of any Christmas tale and it needed to be said by someone in Kirwan's position. With any luck the rest of the mainstream media will catch on soon. I never thought I'd say this but; God bless you Pat Kirwan.

Thoughts for the week

I promised a fantastic and well thought out article on some subject. Unfortunately you're left with this:

• Watching back the video of Chris Johnson vs. the Raiders, the most interesting thing for me was the way he ran behind his pads, often cutting back into the middle and earning those tough yards. Last year he sometimes had a tendency to hide behind a blocker and keep working to the sideline. That did produce him some big gains, but there was also times when the Titans just needed him to get North/South and instead he got stuffed. It's a testament to his character and maturity that he has gone away in the off season and developed his game further, despite being the leading back in the NFL last year.

• The Miami Dolphins, the Dallas Cowboys and the Atlanta Falcons all have serious questions to answer on offense. These are three teams that had high expectations for their offenses to have a prolific year and have failed to live up to that promise. Even in the pre-season they struggled to score points. This week they at least need to start looking like they might put the ball in the end zone, or you can expect the media to ramp up the pressure and for fissures between offense and defense to start forming in their locker rooms.

• The 49ers secondary was supposed to be more organised this year. They were going to finally support Patrick Willis and the rest of the front seven. But they struggled mightily against Seattle and I can't imagine Mike Singletary was best pleased. Still, as long as they don't have to play New Orleans any time soon......... ah f**k!

• Having seen Michael Vick gash the Packers for over a hundred yards, could the unthinkable happen; could Andy Reid start running the ball more? Will he see the possibilities? I doubt it.

• And talking of Andy Reid, his poor game management is legendary. I found a great article covering this on NFL.com. What was shocking for me was that it was written by Michael "did I ever tell you about my time with Bill Walsh?" Lombardi. Yes, Michael Lombardi wrote a good article. Don't say I never give credit where it is due.

Right, I shall be back tomorrow with some picks for the weekend ahead. Hopefully this week I'll go a little better than my abysmal 6-10. Hopefully.....

Have a great day everyone.

Anatomy of the analyst.

I've just and watched the latest 'Anatomy of a Play' on NFL.com, and to be brutally honest, I was disappointed. For 4 mins and 20 seconds I had to watch a nauseating account of Miles Austins 59-yard TD grab and how the Cowboys had apparently prepared all week for just this particular look and that when they got it, they nailed it. We were regaled with stories of great protection by the Tight End and fullback, of the many hours that the coaches had spent developing this play to beat this blitz and to get the ball to Miles Austin deep and in space. We heard repeatedly from Tony Romo blessing his coaching staff for this work of football art. It was put together in a way only NFL films knows how. But it wasn't until 3 minutes into the segment that we finally get to the crux of the matter. We then get a nice description of what the safety was doing and what he was looking at etc. And at this point you begin to wonder why the whole thing lasted any more than about 2 seconds. You literally could have come on and just said "The deep third safety on strong side blew his assignment. Touchdown." And that would have been that. And to be honest, that's really all there is to it. The Falcons were playing Cover 3, which meant that both safeties and one corner each had to drop back and account for a deep third of the field. Erik Coleman, the safety on the right hand side (from the Falcons perspective) is supposed to take a few steps back and start looking for people coming into his deep zone. The corner back on his side was assigned to blitz to force an early throw and the Linebacker on the opposite side (the 'Will') comes right across the formation to cover the short zone. But the trouble is, Coleman didn't drop. His first steps were forward, towards the Line Of Scrimmage. When he realises that the TE Jason Witten isn't releasing into a route, he stalls, turns, and then notices with no doubt wide eyed horror, that he has blown his assignment completely and that Austin is about to tear through his deep zone and get the ball. All this is independent of the Cowboys. It was just a dumb mistake by the Coleman. That's the key to the play. He should have dropped back and stayed there. The Will backer coming across the formation would have covered Jason Witten in the short zone. If Coleman had dropped back deep then Romo would have been forced to hold the ball for a bit longer and the pressure would have got to him. That's the whole point of a zone blitz. Make the QB hold the ball while the extra pressure gets to him and when it does you get a sack or a badly thrown, often dangerously interceptable (??), pass. If Coleman drops back properly, the Falcons likely get a sack or a pick. That's it. There really is no more to it than that. And this is why I kinda hate listening to TV pundits. There are some good ones. Jamie Dukes and Rod Woodson make a great combo. Jason La Canfora has proved to be a steal for the NFL network. Charles Davis is one of the more relaxed and informative analysts out there that I know of. And then we have the already unbeatable looking combo on NBC of Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth. But other than that, you have to question what some of these guys are up to. There seems to be a big culture in football punditry of "I know more than you at home, especially about X's and O's." But as this weeks anatomy of a play shows, that's not always true. Later tonight I'll give you my picks for the week. After going 10-3 last week (should have taken the damn Saints and Eagles) I'm concerned, because this week there are some seriously tough calls to be made. As the saying goes "Who dares, wins." Most of the time.