The Houston Texans eh. Funny old team. I say it all the time but they basically are the 2008 New Orleans Saints; a great offense coupled with a shitty defense.
And they really do have a great offense. Think about it logically for a second. Quarterback Matt Schaub is one of the leading passers in the NFL right now. He doesn't get the credit and recognition he deserves, but then that's just how the NFL covering media works; unless you're riding the hot ticket to the playoffs then nobody cares about you.
Once you've become successful then all of a sudden everyone will jump on the bandwagon (again, see the Saints in '08 compared to '09) but until that point Schaub will just have to make do with quietly being one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Yes, I just said that. Matt Schaub.
Of course one of the reasons he's done so well is because of wide receiver Andre Johnson, who is arguably one of the best at his position in the NFL right now. In fact, all the Texans offense really needs now is say, a tight end who is considered to be under rated, like Owen Daniels for example, and then a running back who posted the most rushing yards of any back in the NFL in 2010, like Arian Foster for example.
So yeah, the Texans offense is unquestionably (to a sane and rational person) one of the best in the league right now. Unfortunately that defense is... terrible. Shocking. Awful. Miserable. And a whole bunch of other words that describe something being really bad.
This year then it was expected that the Texans might go heavy on defense. No, it was practically demanded that they should. With the benefit of hindsight, I think they might have taken the consensus opinion a little literally.
It all started in round one with J.J. Watt, defensive end, Wisconsin.
Now Watt is an odd one for the Texans, due to his career in college primarily consisting of being a 4-3 defensive end whereas the Texans, under new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, are likely to switch to a 3-4 defense.
That begs the question then as to where Watt will fit in? He played some snaps standing up so he could play as a pass rushing outside linebacker, but he's a little thick for that. I should just point out that I mean size wise, not that he's dumb. Of course he could be, I've never met the guy. And now I'm just rambling.
The alternative is for him to play as a 3-4 DE, which is more akin to being a 3 technique tackle in a 4-3 defense. If I'm hedging my bets then I suspect this is where he will be played and where he'll fit in best. Of course I could be wrong so we'll try and look at it from both perspectives.
As an outside rushing backer my concern is that while Watt is plenty strong enough, he'll be a little slow and a little dumpy. He can always lose weight, I accept that, but it's not ideal. That said he was a pretty good rusher. Technique was good, he had a variety of moves up his sleeve, and he pursues well.
But I still stand by my thought that he would be better off as a Defensive End. He's got strength and his technique would be well suited to playing against the guards who would often be forced to slide over to take him, providing there is a pass rusher outside of him.
Either way, I think the Texans did well with their first pick. They got somebody who will achieve a reasonable degree of success whatever they ultimately decide to do with him.
Not content with that though, the Texans came back again in the second round and took Brooks Reed, defensive end, Arizona.
Now if the future is a little uncertain for Watt, then it's crystal clear for Reed. Outside linebacker. In fact, I'm a little amazed this guy was playing defensive end in a 4-3, because really he didn't seem to have the size. Speed however Reed definitely has in abundance.
On the few occasions that he played from a standing start you could see that Reed clearly has the drive and the physical tools to be a pass rusher. He may not be the greatest in the world and yeah, his strength is a little lacking so the run game might give him some issues, but speed wise Reed is well set. Keep and eye out for this kid in Houston this year.
Next up was Brandon Harris, corner, Miami, also taken in the second round and who marked the beginning of a Houston run over the next three picks on defensive backs, their weakest position by far.
Former Texans GM Charley Casserly, who I can't stand, thinks Harris will be nothing more than a fourth string corner so that instantly makes me want to root for him to do well. Having watched him play, I think he will.
To start with the downsides, Harris is a little short and sometimes he makes some dubious choices, but that never hurt Asante Samuel so never mind. On the plus side, he accelerates quickly, is smooth in most of his movements, balanced, and plays the ball well in the air.
I should temper that last statement by saying that I don't mean picks. Harris clearly ended up as a corner because his hands are rubbish, but to me that's not a huge issue. Given the choice of seeing a corner try to get a pick and risk giving up a touchdown, or having him simply bat the ball down, I'd rather he took the opportunity to bat it down.
And hey, let's put it this way; Harris is an upgrade on the current group of corners they have so Texans fans can't moan.
On to the fourth round and its Rashad Carmichael, corner, Virginia Tech.
Oh boy. At least now I have my Halloween night planned out this year. It'll start with a one hour special of watching tape of Mike Person trying to block, followed by a one hour special of watching Carmichael trying to tackle. It is honestly cringe worthy viewing.
That for me is an issue. I can live with players who are solid but not spectacular, but Carmichael has way too many weaknesses to exploit. He absolutely cannot tackle unless he happens to be chasing someone from behind (it has to be seen to be believed). On top of that, his coverage is far too loose. He's so concerned with avoiding being beaten deep that he gives receivers way too much of a cushion.
Frankly, I give Carmichael a big thumbs down.
On to the fifth round and Shiloh Keo, safety, Idaho.
Keo had a great combine in terms of the on field drills, but I didn't get the opportunity pre draft to get a look at him in a game. Uhm. That's still the case. I got Idaho offense, just not defense. So. Shit.
Still in round five the Texans came up with QB Taylor Yates, quarterback, North Carolina.
Hmm. I think if I was gonna take a quarterback and say "this is someone who we have no intention of playing for a few years, he's a project" then Yates would be a good fit. He has a lot of the basic skills down pat. His footwork is good, he scans the field well, he throws pretty well. Doesn't have the biggest arm in the world and doesn't do as much down field throwing as some, but still has plenty of scope for development.
I think Yates has really fallen on his feet in Houston. They have a legitimate quality starter, a back up with a few seasons of practice and some game time under his belt, and that just leaves Yates to concentrate on being the young, upcoming kid. The offense is good and there is plenty of talent around him so maybe in a few years we'll be talking about Yates the same way we currently talk about Kevin Kolb?
Round seven now and two picks. The first was offensive tackle Derek Newton, Arkansas State. If you know anything about him send me a letter, because I don't. Damn Arkansas State.
That just leaves Cheta Ozougwu (yes, I had to copy and paste that), defensive end, Rice. Ozougwu also has the dubious honor that must fall to someone each year of being the last pick in the draft, and therefore Mr. Irrelevant 2011.
I know Mike Mayock of NFL Network believes he could be a situational pass rusher, but that's about all I do know. No film, no idea.
So I slightly flat end to this one. Overall though I think the Texans did some good work. They've put a plan in place for the future of their quarterback position. They've added some depth and talent to their pass rush. They believe, even I don't fully agree, that they addressed that major concern in the defensive backfield.
I think this a good draft. It's not great, but it is good. If their new pass rushers and secondary guys can even just nudge this team along a little then with an offense as good as they have they could potentially make the playoffs this year. Of course, everyone's been saying that about the Texans for the last two years now, but maybe this time it'll actually bear fruit.
Next up is the Indianapolis Colts. If you want to e-mail me, probably to complain about something, the address is; keepingthechainsmoving@live.co.uk
Don't forget to hit that facebook button below and share with your friends, and I will see you all sometime this weekend with that Colts roundup.
Showing posts with label 2011 NFL Draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2011 NFL Draft. Show all posts
Wednesday, July 06, 2011
Friday, July 01, 2011
2011 NFL Draft: Washington Redskins
Jesus, finally here! Apology's about the delay.
So, the Washington Redskins eh? Notorious throughout the land for basically two things; 1) over spending on unworthy free agents, 2) semi-bad drafting.
In a bid to rectify this unfortunate reputation the Redskins approached the draft with a strategy unusual for them in that they traded about a bit and with the help of compensatory selections ended up with twelve picks in this years draft. What's even more surprising is that they actually made some good picks.
Starting in round one with Ryan Kerrigan, defensive end, Purdue.
Admittedly Kerrigan was a defensive end in college whereas for the Redskins he'll have to take on the role of a 3-4 outside linebacker, but the transition shouldn't be too painful. He even played a few snaps standing up in college and it didn't seem to effect his game much.
Now generally speaking I like Kerrigan. There is the odd issue here and there, like I'd like to see him work a bit more on his strength, but these tend to be in the category of "minor complaints". Those things aside, Kerrigan has bags of potential as an NFL pass rusher.
Speed is good and the thing I like most is the use of the hands. Too many players come into the NFL hoping to be the next Dwight Freeney or Jared Allen, but lacking the technical understanding of how to use their hands in various ways to get off blocks.
Kerrigan strikes me as being one of the better prepared players to take on the challenge. He's shown great leverage and great technique, plus buckets of determination to get into the backfield, chase plays down and get after a quarterback in trouble. All these things should help Kerrigan succeed at the next level.
Talking of next levels, its round two and Jarvis Jenkins, defensive tackle, Clemson. With the Redskins taking a tackle it's almost like they're expressing disappointment in Albert Haynesworth....
They might end up expressing disappointment in Jenkins too. I just don't see a lot in the kid. Pretty plain, average tackle who doesn't show any of the glints of promise that some others have. Maybe that's all the Redskins were looking for? Just a guy to plug the middle? I strongly doubt that, which is why I find this an odd pick. Just a bit flat.
In round three the Redskins went with Leonard Hankerson, wide receiver, Miami (Florida).
Now I'm a big Hankerson fan. Anytime a player forgoes the chance to come out of college in their junior year and stay on for another year to get their education, that always counts as a plus in my book. He also spent a lot of time in the last two off seasons seeking help from a former Dolphins receiver in order to develop himself a little more as a receiver, which can only speak highly of his work ethic.
On the field Hankerson has a number of great traits. He's a big guy (= big target), he's pretty quick, his route running has improved a lot and he has great hands. He falls very much into the scope of being a down field target man, though perhaps the best comparison I could give would be that he reminds me a lot of Andre Johnson.
As always with such comparisons I should stress that I'm not saying he'll walk into the league day one and be that good, just the style of play strikes me as being very similar. With time however? If receiver from this draft class is going to go on and emulate a guy like Johnson, then Hankerson could be the one to do it.
Round four now and it's Roy Helu, running back, Nebraska.
Since the draft, Helu has gone up in my estimation. He has obvious strength and is not afraid to put his head down and plough through defenders, but previously I questioned somewhat his vision and speed. Having taken a much deeper look I'm now satisfied that I was previously talking out of my arse.
Helu may not be blindingly quick, but there is a difference between the required speed to break away from defenders, leaving them in your dust trail, and the speed needed just to stop people catching you before you reach the end zone. Helu has the second. His vision and cutting ability also appear to be more than adequate.
At this juncture you could be forgiven for thinking that I'm about to go off on a starry eyed jaunt praising Helu to the ends of the time and predicting pro bowls and Super Bowls a plenty. Well... it's not quite that far. I just wanted to rectify my initial assessment that was quite down beat, when in fact I think Helu deserves more.
Round five and the Redskins went with Dejon Gomes, safety, Nebraska.
Good safety? Bad safety? Meh. Not really a lot to see to be honest. A few highlight reel plays here and there but spends most of the game not really doing a lot. Coverage can be reasonably good against tight ends and third string receivers, but there's just not a lot to show. Against someone like Dallas Clark etc, I can see him struggling.
Still in Round five, Niles Paul, wide receiver, Nebraska. I get the feeling someone in Washington watched a lot of Nebraska film in the run up to the draft.
If they did, then I'm not sure what it is they really saw in Niles Paul. He's not bad with the ball in his hands, but again I would protest that there were other, clearly better receivers out there on the board when the Redskins made this pick.
Not least because almost every other receiver still on the board at the time must have had more catches than Paul. Part of that is down to the fact he wasn't targeted all that often, part of it is because (and may have caused reason one) he has quite dead hands, seemingly dropping more passes than he actually catches.
Moving to round six and the Redskins still have six picks left! The first of these was Evan Royster, running back, Penn state.
First of all, you have to pat Royster on the back for setting a new career rushing record with Penn State. But at the same time... eh, I'm just not a huge Royster fan. I think blocking schemes had a hell of a lot to do with explaining Roysters success and I just don't see the combination of attributes that will produce a good running back at the next level.
Next up, Aldrick Robinson, wide receiver, Southern Methodist. No film. No comment. Next.
In to round seven and Brandyn Thompson, cornerback, Boise State. Not a huge fan if I'm honest. Like a lot of corners he gets those odd moments when a quarterback over throws a pass and he makes a pick, but generally speaking a little suspect. Very loose coverage.
Next up is offensive tackle Maurice Hurt, Florida. I'm indifferent to him. Doesn't strike me as anything more than a filler for training camp.
Second from last we have Markus White, defensive end, Florida State. Hard one to gauge. Against weaker opposition he can often find a way past the sub standard right tackles, but up against top drawer opponents White often gets brutally man handled. Lack of technique and lack of strength will cripple him at this level.
That just leaves Nose Tackle Chris Neild, from West Virginia. Again, another prospect who is ok, but really lacks anything that would suggest he's going to succeed at the NFL level. The main problem is that while he's strong enough to hold his own up the middle, he really doesn't have the extra speed or strength to make much of an impact beyond occasionally tackling a mid line runner.
So, there's your 2011 Washington Redskins. A mixed bag. A lot of players in there who I think will just kind of mill around and not do much, but some good ones as well. Ryan Kerrigan is notable for example for the fact he'll be playing opposite Brian Orakpo. If Kerrigan can live up to his potential then the Redskins will have a double sided pass rush to take notice of.
Hankerson and Helu are also good picks due to what they bring to the table. Hankerson is in the bizarre spot where he may just walk on to the field at training camp and be the number one guy. Santana Moss is up for free agency and the Redskins depth chart at that position isn't exactly brimming with threats to someone as good as Hankerson.
Helu meanwhile is in the position of being behind a pretty good O-line from a run blocking perspective. He might have to fight a bit harder than Hankerson to keep a spot and then get on the field, but he has talent and Washington might be a good place to help him exploit it.
Right, that's the NFC East finally done and with it the whole conference.
The plan is next to start the AFC, beginning with the AFC South, but I should just throw out a warning right now to those of you who drop by all the time. Basically, it takes absolutely ages to do these posts and unfortunately that really cuts into my time. I don't get paid at all for doing this, except on the odd occasion when someone clicks one of the adverts.
Now that's not so much of a problem, I mean I love football, but to be honest readership is sparse. There appears to be a hardcore group of you, mostly from the US as can be expected but also Italy, Denmark and Canada. However a hardcore group is, never the less, still just a small group of people and it is kind of disheartening to pour so much time into the project for so little exposure.
If my posts become as infrequent in general as they have been the last week or so (at least until the season proper starts) then forgive me, but I'm having to prioritise other things, like adequate sleep, thus forcing me to stretch my writing time for these posts out over the course of multiple days.
So, the Washington Redskins eh? Notorious throughout the land for basically two things; 1) over spending on unworthy free agents, 2) semi-bad drafting.
In a bid to rectify this unfortunate reputation the Redskins approached the draft with a strategy unusual for them in that they traded about a bit and with the help of compensatory selections ended up with twelve picks in this years draft. What's even more surprising is that they actually made some good picks.
Starting in round one with Ryan Kerrigan, defensive end, Purdue.
Admittedly Kerrigan was a defensive end in college whereas for the Redskins he'll have to take on the role of a 3-4 outside linebacker, but the transition shouldn't be too painful. He even played a few snaps standing up in college and it didn't seem to effect his game much.
Now generally speaking I like Kerrigan. There is the odd issue here and there, like I'd like to see him work a bit more on his strength, but these tend to be in the category of "minor complaints". Those things aside, Kerrigan has bags of potential as an NFL pass rusher.
Speed is good and the thing I like most is the use of the hands. Too many players come into the NFL hoping to be the next Dwight Freeney or Jared Allen, but lacking the technical understanding of how to use their hands in various ways to get off blocks.
Kerrigan strikes me as being one of the better prepared players to take on the challenge. He's shown great leverage and great technique, plus buckets of determination to get into the backfield, chase plays down and get after a quarterback in trouble. All these things should help Kerrigan succeed at the next level.
Talking of next levels, its round two and Jarvis Jenkins, defensive tackle, Clemson. With the Redskins taking a tackle it's almost like they're expressing disappointment in Albert Haynesworth....
They might end up expressing disappointment in Jenkins too. I just don't see a lot in the kid. Pretty plain, average tackle who doesn't show any of the glints of promise that some others have. Maybe that's all the Redskins were looking for? Just a guy to plug the middle? I strongly doubt that, which is why I find this an odd pick. Just a bit flat.
In round three the Redskins went with Leonard Hankerson, wide receiver, Miami (Florida).
Now I'm a big Hankerson fan. Anytime a player forgoes the chance to come out of college in their junior year and stay on for another year to get their education, that always counts as a plus in my book. He also spent a lot of time in the last two off seasons seeking help from a former Dolphins receiver in order to develop himself a little more as a receiver, which can only speak highly of his work ethic.
On the field Hankerson has a number of great traits. He's a big guy (= big target), he's pretty quick, his route running has improved a lot and he has great hands. He falls very much into the scope of being a down field target man, though perhaps the best comparison I could give would be that he reminds me a lot of Andre Johnson.
As always with such comparisons I should stress that I'm not saying he'll walk into the league day one and be that good, just the style of play strikes me as being very similar. With time however? If receiver from this draft class is going to go on and emulate a guy like Johnson, then Hankerson could be the one to do it.
Round four now and it's Roy Helu, running back, Nebraska.
Since the draft, Helu has gone up in my estimation. He has obvious strength and is not afraid to put his head down and plough through defenders, but previously I questioned somewhat his vision and speed. Having taken a much deeper look I'm now satisfied that I was previously talking out of my arse.
Helu may not be blindingly quick, but there is a difference between the required speed to break away from defenders, leaving them in your dust trail, and the speed needed just to stop people catching you before you reach the end zone. Helu has the second. His vision and cutting ability also appear to be more than adequate.
At this juncture you could be forgiven for thinking that I'm about to go off on a starry eyed jaunt praising Helu to the ends of the time and predicting pro bowls and Super Bowls a plenty. Well... it's not quite that far. I just wanted to rectify my initial assessment that was quite down beat, when in fact I think Helu deserves more.
Round five and the Redskins went with Dejon Gomes, safety, Nebraska.
Good safety? Bad safety? Meh. Not really a lot to see to be honest. A few highlight reel plays here and there but spends most of the game not really doing a lot. Coverage can be reasonably good against tight ends and third string receivers, but there's just not a lot to show. Against someone like Dallas Clark etc, I can see him struggling.
Still in Round five, Niles Paul, wide receiver, Nebraska. I get the feeling someone in Washington watched a lot of Nebraska film in the run up to the draft.
If they did, then I'm not sure what it is they really saw in Niles Paul. He's not bad with the ball in his hands, but again I would protest that there were other, clearly better receivers out there on the board when the Redskins made this pick.
Not least because almost every other receiver still on the board at the time must have had more catches than Paul. Part of that is down to the fact he wasn't targeted all that often, part of it is because (and may have caused reason one) he has quite dead hands, seemingly dropping more passes than he actually catches.
Moving to round six and the Redskins still have six picks left! The first of these was Evan Royster, running back, Penn state.
First of all, you have to pat Royster on the back for setting a new career rushing record with Penn State. But at the same time... eh, I'm just not a huge Royster fan. I think blocking schemes had a hell of a lot to do with explaining Roysters success and I just don't see the combination of attributes that will produce a good running back at the next level.
Next up, Aldrick Robinson, wide receiver, Southern Methodist. No film. No comment. Next.
In to round seven and Brandyn Thompson, cornerback, Boise State. Not a huge fan if I'm honest. Like a lot of corners he gets those odd moments when a quarterback over throws a pass and he makes a pick, but generally speaking a little suspect. Very loose coverage.
Next up is offensive tackle Maurice Hurt, Florida. I'm indifferent to him. Doesn't strike me as anything more than a filler for training camp.
Second from last we have Markus White, defensive end, Florida State. Hard one to gauge. Against weaker opposition he can often find a way past the sub standard right tackles, but up against top drawer opponents White often gets brutally man handled. Lack of technique and lack of strength will cripple him at this level.
That just leaves Nose Tackle Chris Neild, from West Virginia. Again, another prospect who is ok, but really lacks anything that would suggest he's going to succeed at the NFL level. The main problem is that while he's strong enough to hold his own up the middle, he really doesn't have the extra speed or strength to make much of an impact beyond occasionally tackling a mid line runner.
So, there's your 2011 Washington Redskins. A mixed bag. A lot of players in there who I think will just kind of mill around and not do much, but some good ones as well. Ryan Kerrigan is notable for example for the fact he'll be playing opposite Brian Orakpo. If Kerrigan can live up to his potential then the Redskins will have a double sided pass rush to take notice of.
Hankerson and Helu are also good picks due to what they bring to the table. Hankerson is in the bizarre spot where he may just walk on to the field at training camp and be the number one guy. Santana Moss is up for free agency and the Redskins depth chart at that position isn't exactly brimming with threats to someone as good as Hankerson.
Helu meanwhile is in the position of being behind a pretty good O-line from a run blocking perspective. He might have to fight a bit harder than Hankerson to keep a spot and then get on the field, but he has talent and Washington might be a good place to help him exploit it.
Right, that's the NFC East finally done and with it the whole conference.
The plan is next to start the AFC, beginning with the AFC South, but I should just throw out a warning right now to those of you who drop by all the time. Basically, it takes absolutely ages to do these posts and unfortunately that really cuts into my time. I don't get paid at all for doing this, except on the odd occasion when someone clicks one of the adverts.
Now that's not so much of a problem, I mean I love football, but to be honest readership is sparse. There appears to be a hardcore group of you, mostly from the US as can be expected but also Italy, Denmark and Canada. However a hardcore group is, never the less, still just a small group of people and it is kind of disheartening to pour so much time into the project for so little exposure.
If my posts become as infrequent in general as they have been the last week or so (at least until the season proper starts) then forgive me, but I'm having to prioritise other things, like adequate sleep, thus forcing me to stretch my writing time for these posts out over the course of multiple days.
Tuesday, June 07, 2011
2011 Draft: Detroit Lions
Should be a quick one today, with only five players taken by the Lions.
Starting in round one with Nick Fairley, defensive tackle, Auburn. And of course the big question surrounding Fairley, some might even say plaguing him, has been whether Fairley is a one hit wonder or not. Having put on a great performance in 2010, will that carry over to the NFL or did he just luck out for that one year?
I'm pretty convinced by Fairley to be honest. Pick a game, almost any game from last year, and what you'll see is Nick Fairley causing havoc against some of the best teams in the country. He is a real danger man in the middle. To shut him up teams often had to resort to using two and sometimes three people to block him.
Blocking Fairley one on one was a risk. You might get away with it for a few snaps, but eventually you had to know that he was going to beat your guard or your center in a single block and make it deep into the backfield. And boy, did he ever spend some time in peoples backfields.
Ok, that sounded wrong.
Anyway, Fairley has a lot of strength. His initial move off the snap is incredibly fast and powerful. He uses his hands ok, but he'll need a bit of work in that regard at the next level. It tends to not matter so much though because his burst off the line is critical. If he can catch a guard on the shoulder as opposed to head on, then he often has the raw strength and speed to work his way into the backfield regardless of what the guard has to say about the matter.
Once in the backfield his speed over short distances often prevails, getting in the quarterbacks face or wrapping up the running back before he has a chance to really get going. If Fairley does have one major fault it's that his short range speed seems to drain the "desire" tank quite quickly. If the play spills to the edge, Fairley often is one of the last in pursuit.
But despite that minor setback, his raw talent makes him incredibly attractive as a prospect for the Lions. Teamed up in the middle with Ndamukong Suh, with Kyle Vanden Bosch on one side and Cliff Avril on the other, that Lions D-line just became a really tough proposition for their opponents this year. The thinking is likely along the lines that pressure generated up front will make it a little easier on the secondary this year.
If Fairley can help what was already a well developing D-line to start getting to the quarterback on a more regular basis (and quicker) it will force quarterbacks to hurry and get the ball out of their hands early, hopefully throwing off their accuracy a little. With any luck (for Lions fans at least) that'll provide their pass defense with a chance to actually make some plays.
Next up, the first of two second round picks was Titus Young, wide receiver, Boise State. Now originally I was a bit of a Titus Young fan. But lately that opinion is starting to slide. It's not the fact that he comes across as a cocky little bastard, although he does. That in itself is not always a bad thing (only when cockiness becomes complacency).
Rather the issue is one related to hands, route technique and work rate. I'll pick up the last one first (with me?) because it's something that really bugs me. You can tell when Boise is about to run a play where Young is not the number one or two guy, because he literally jogs off the line. I'm not even joking, or exaggerating. In fact, "jogging" might be giving Young too much credit. Perhaps slowly trundling off the line might do it more justice.
That really annoys me. You have to make the defense think on every play that you are a danger to them. You have to make the corner, the nearest linebacker and the safety to your side all think that at any second you might make a break and speed on by them. Otherwise you're just making their decision making cycle so much easier.
That safety who might otherwise have come all the way across to the sideline to cover you can now turn and take an angle across the field to go and chase down that running play which is headed in the opposite direction. What might have been a touchdown now becomes a 40 yard gain. That can make all the difference in a tight game in the NFL.
Related to the effort problem is his blocking, both on run plays and screen plays. Simply put, Young doesn't block. He kind of shields. It's more like watching a defender in basketball as opposed to a committed NFL blocker. There was even a screen play where he let a defender run right by him, while he just stared at the guy. What he didn't realise was that the ball carrier was dancing around behind him and having beaten one man was then promptly tackled from behind by the guy that Young was supposed to block.
Now, route technique. Or as I like to call it, lack of route technique. He doesn't have much awareness of the defender and the leverage the defender is using against him (inside vs. outside etc). His adjustments to the coverage are sloppy at best and he has a really nasty tendency to false step at the start of his route. He has speed, but he doesn't make the most of it with his breaks, which are often slow and highly telegraphed.
Have you guessed yet which group I coached last?
Finally we have hands. Previously I'd seen a lot of good in Young. There are certainly some great catches on tape, including one handers. But having taken a more extensive and laborious look there are some worrying points to pick up. There are quite a lot of drops. Quite a lot. His use of the hands is generally ok when the ball is coming over his head except that he sometimes has the reverse problem to Braylon Edwards, in that Edwards has a tendency to hold his hands too close to his face, while Young tends to hold them too far away from his body.
When catching flatter passes, ones that come at him more at head height and that he's looking straight at, he has a tendency to open his hands too much. Typically you want the tips of your thumbs and the tips of your fingers to be almost touching, but Young prefers the approach of keeping his hands wide and trying to time the catch perfectly. There is a good reason why not many people do this, namely that it's bloody difficult to pull off on a consistent basis.
Honestly speaking, I don't know what I saw in Young first time round. Yes, he does sometimes have those highlight reel catches. Yes, he does sometimes display great agility with the ball in his hands. But personally I think I'd rather have Austin Pettis from Boise, which is saying something (though Pettis is growing on me the more I watch Boise).
Next up up in round two was Mikel Leshoure, running back, Illinois. I was a little surprised by this, given that Detroit traded up last year to get their hands on Jahvid Best, but I guess two backs are better than one so there we go.
And Leshoure is a good back. He's sometimes is a little indecisive in short yardage, probably as a function of wanting to look for the big play, but other than that he usually has a good feel and vision for holes around the line. He has quick feet and is pretty strong for a back. Normally when Leshoure meets a defender he drops his shoulder and gives as good as gets, driving his feet all the way through for extra yards, which is such an under rated skill.
In the passing game he has pretty good hands and his route running is about average. He blocks well when called upon. In fact, Leshoure is one of the few backs (including the NFL) who can block "properly", that is to say that he stands up and uses technique to defeat his man, instead of constantly trying to dive at the guys feet and cut him.
Overall Leshoure is one of the better backs in the draft this year. Will he be another Chris Johnson? No. He's not really what you would call home run hitter, mainly because he lacks a bit of speed in the open field. But his quality throughout every phase of his game is very useful and you can see him being a solid contributor for many years on this Lions team. He should compliment the speed and explosiveness of Best well, being more of a head on, tough style runner who can give you consistent yards and occasionally big plays.
Next the Lions had to wait until the fifth round, where they took Doug Hogue, Linebacker, from Syracuse. Otherwise known as "Doug ho-God do I have to watch anymore of this?"
He has flashes of speed which sometimes find him in the backfield making the tackle, but you really have to work hard to notice when Hogue actually makes a difference to a game. He just doesn't do a lot. Occasionally he fills in the running game, but overall he's a spectator not a play maker. Might have a future as a weak linebacker in the Lions 4-3, but don't count on it. Could be gone by the end of camp.
After Hogue, Lions fans had to wait with unbearable anticipation until the seventh round to see who their team would take next, and it was..... Johnny Culbreath, offensive tackle, South Carolina state. The question you're probably asking is; who? And the answer is; I have no idea! Seriously. I haven't seen so much as a second on Culbreath and so I can't say a thing I'm afraid.
In conclusion then, the Lions draft was... ok. I remember it being better, largely because I remember Young being better than what I've seen recently. I think everyone is hoping that he'll be the perfect partner to Calvin Johnson, but I'm really not sure. I just think he'll lack the consistency to really take that kind of role. Add on the Hogue and Culbreath picks and it doesn't pan out all that well.
But then Nick Fairley and Mikel Leshoure offer hope. Fairley might just have been the player with the most legitimate claim to have been the number one overall pick, so I think the Lions got a great deal at 13th overall. Leshoure will add a measure of stability to that offense and may even be able to help better at keeping Matthew Stafford upright this year.
So positives and negatives. I think if the Lions are going to make a splash this year though, it'll be their veterans who'll have to dig deep and make it happen. Suh needs to have another good year. And Stafford needs to stay healthy for more than about 3 games.
Next year I can see an O-line blitz coming for the Lions.
Starting in round one with Nick Fairley, defensive tackle, Auburn. And of course the big question surrounding Fairley, some might even say plaguing him, has been whether Fairley is a one hit wonder or not. Having put on a great performance in 2010, will that carry over to the NFL or did he just luck out for that one year?
I'm pretty convinced by Fairley to be honest. Pick a game, almost any game from last year, and what you'll see is Nick Fairley causing havoc against some of the best teams in the country. He is a real danger man in the middle. To shut him up teams often had to resort to using two and sometimes three people to block him.
Blocking Fairley one on one was a risk. You might get away with it for a few snaps, but eventually you had to know that he was going to beat your guard or your center in a single block and make it deep into the backfield. And boy, did he ever spend some time in peoples backfields.
Ok, that sounded wrong.
Anyway, Fairley has a lot of strength. His initial move off the snap is incredibly fast and powerful. He uses his hands ok, but he'll need a bit of work in that regard at the next level. It tends to not matter so much though because his burst off the line is critical. If he can catch a guard on the shoulder as opposed to head on, then he often has the raw strength and speed to work his way into the backfield regardless of what the guard has to say about the matter.
Once in the backfield his speed over short distances often prevails, getting in the quarterbacks face or wrapping up the running back before he has a chance to really get going. If Fairley does have one major fault it's that his short range speed seems to drain the "desire" tank quite quickly. If the play spills to the edge, Fairley often is one of the last in pursuit.
But despite that minor setback, his raw talent makes him incredibly attractive as a prospect for the Lions. Teamed up in the middle with Ndamukong Suh, with Kyle Vanden Bosch on one side and Cliff Avril on the other, that Lions D-line just became a really tough proposition for their opponents this year. The thinking is likely along the lines that pressure generated up front will make it a little easier on the secondary this year.
If Fairley can help what was already a well developing D-line to start getting to the quarterback on a more regular basis (and quicker) it will force quarterbacks to hurry and get the ball out of their hands early, hopefully throwing off their accuracy a little. With any luck (for Lions fans at least) that'll provide their pass defense with a chance to actually make some plays.
Next up, the first of two second round picks was Titus Young, wide receiver, Boise State. Now originally I was a bit of a Titus Young fan. But lately that opinion is starting to slide. It's not the fact that he comes across as a cocky little bastard, although he does. That in itself is not always a bad thing (only when cockiness becomes complacency).
Rather the issue is one related to hands, route technique and work rate. I'll pick up the last one first (with me?) because it's something that really bugs me. You can tell when Boise is about to run a play where Young is not the number one or two guy, because he literally jogs off the line. I'm not even joking, or exaggerating. In fact, "jogging" might be giving Young too much credit. Perhaps slowly trundling off the line might do it more justice.
That really annoys me. You have to make the defense think on every play that you are a danger to them. You have to make the corner, the nearest linebacker and the safety to your side all think that at any second you might make a break and speed on by them. Otherwise you're just making their decision making cycle so much easier.
That safety who might otherwise have come all the way across to the sideline to cover you can now turn and take an angle across the field to go and chase down that running play which is headed in the opposite direction. What might have been a touchdown now becomes a 40 yard gain. That can make all the difference in a tight game in the NFL.
Related to the effort problem is his blocking, both on run plays and screen plays. Simply put, Young doesn't block. He kind of shields. It's more like watching a defender in basketball as opposed to a committed NFL blocker. There was even a screen play where he let a defender run right by him, while he just stared at the guy. What he didn't realise was that the ball carrier was dancing around behind him and having beaten one man was then promptly tackled from behind by the guy that Young was supposed to block.
Now, route technique. Or as I like to call it, lack of route technique. He doesn't have much awareness of the defender and the leverage the defender is using against him (inside vs. outside etc). His adjustments to the coverage are sloppy at best and he has a really nasty tendency to false step at the start of his route. He has speed, but he doesn't make the most of it with his breaks, which are often slow and highly telegraphed.
Have you guessed yet which group I coached last?
Finally we have hands. Previously I'd seen a lot of good in Young. There are certainly some great catches on tape, including one handers. But having taken a more extensive and laborious look there are some worrying points to pick up. There are quite a lot of drops. Quite a lot. His use of the hands is generally ok when the ball is coming over his head except that he sometimes has the reverse problem to Braylon Edwards, in that Edwards has a tendency to hold his hands too close to his face, while Young tends to hold them too far away from his body.
When catching flatter passes, ones that come at him more at head height and that he's looking straight at, he has a tendency to open his hands too much. Typically you want the tips of your thumbs and the tips of your fingers to be almost touching, but Young prefers the approach of keeping his hands wide and trying to time the catch perfectly. There is a good reason why not many people do this, namely that it's bloody difficult to pull off on a consistent basis.
Honestly speaking, I don't know what I saw in Young first time round. Yes, he does sometimes have those highlight reel catches. Yes, he does sometimes display great agility with the ball in his hands. But personally I think I'd rather have Austin Pettis from Boise, which is saying something (though Pettis is growing on me the more I watch Boise).
Next up up in round two was Mikel Leshoure, running back, Illinois. I was a little surprised by this, given that Detroit traded up last year to get their hands on Jahvid Best, but I guess two backs are better than one so there we go.
And Leshoure is a good back. He's sometimes is a little indecisive in short yardage, probably as a function of wanting to look for the big play, but other than that he usually has a good feel and vision for holes around the line. He has quick feet and is pretty strong for a back. Normally when Leshoure meets a defender he drops his shoulder and gives as good as gets, driving his feet all the way through for extra yards, which is such an under rated skill.
In the passing game he has pretty good hands and his route running is about average. He blocks well when called upon. In fact, Leshoure is one of the few backs (including the NFL) who can block "properly", that is to say that he stands up and uses technique to defeat his man, instead of constantly trying to dive at the guys feet and cut him.
Overall Leshoure is one of the better backs in the draft this year. Will he be another Chris Johnson? No. He's not really what you would call home run hitter, mainly because he lacks a bit of speed in the open field. But his quality throughout every phase of his game is very useful and you can see him being a solid contributor for many years on this Lions team. He should compliment the speed and explosiveness of Best well, being more of a head on, tough style runner who can give you consistent yards and occasionally big plays.
Next the Lions had to wait until the fifth round, where they took Doug Hogue, Linebacker, from Syracuse. Otherwise known as "Doug ho-God do I have to watch anymore of this?"
He has flashes of speed which sometimes find him in the backfield making the tackle, but you really have to work hard to notice when Hogue actually makes a difference to a game. He just doesn't do a lot. Occasionally he fills in the running game, but overall he's a spectator not a play maker. Might have a future as a weak linebacker in the Lions 4-3, but don't count on it. Could be gone by the end of camp.
After Hogue, Lions fans had to wait with unbearable anticipation until the seventh round to see who their team would take next, and it was..... Johnny Culbreath, offensive tackle, South Carolina state. The question you're probably asking is; who? And the answer is; I have no idea! Seriously. I haven't seen so much as a second on Culbreath and so I can't say a thing I'm afraid.
In conclusion then, the Lions draft was... ok. I remember it being better, largely because I remember Young being better than what I've seen recently. I think everyone is hoping that he'll be the perfect partner to Calvin Johnson, but I'm really not sure. I just think he'll lack the consistency to really take that kind of role. Add on the Hogue and Culbreath picks and it doesn't pan out all that well.
But then Nick Fairley and Mikel Leshoure offer hope. Fairley might just have been the player with the most legitimate claim to have been the number one overall pick, so I think the Lions got a great deal at 13th overall. Leshoure will add a measure of stability to that offense and may even be able to help better at keeping Matthew Stafford upright this year.
So positives and negatives. I think if the Lions are going to make a splash this year though, it'll be their veterans who'll have to dig deep and make it happen. Suh needs to have another good year. And Stafford needs to stay healthy for more than about 3 games.
Next year I can see an O-line blitz coming for the Lions.
Friday, June 03, 2011
2011 NFL Draft; Chicago Bears
So, here we are, finally having gotten around to looking at the Bears draft class.
Now admittedly I've been trying to string these posts out to last us with some football-ish news through the dark days of this lockout. But recently it would appear I've been taking the piss with this Bears post, given that its taken so long to produce.
But there is a good reason. Or at least I think it is.
On April 7th I covered some of the defensive linemen ahead of the draft. One of those players was defensive tackle Stephen Paea, from Oregon State. Paea was taken in the second round by the Bears and this is what I originially wrote about him on April 7th:
"The strength he displayed at the combine (I think it was 49 reps of 225 lbs) is for real. Sometimes he'll just barely get a hand on a running back and yet bring them crashing to the ground. Quick and has pretty good technique. All that helps him to shed blocks. Might slip down because people think he's just a workout warrior, but that's a big mistake. I'm going to put my neck on the line and say he's a worthy first round talent."
So what's the problem then?
The answer is; I have no idea now what made me write that. As part of this series I've been going back and studying each individual player much closer. A good example of this was Colin Kaepernick of the 49ers, who I now feel I didn't give enough credit to before the draft.
And now I'm really beginning to wonder about some of the other evaluations I put up. For example, I've been back and looked at a number of defensive linemen. Nick Fairley is just how I remember him. But reading my review of Corey Liuget and then watching the film, you wouldn't recognise the player I was talking about.
I think on reflection I might also have given too much credit to Adrian Clayborn, and not enough to the likes of J.J. Watt and Ryan Kerrigan. It's odd. I'm having trouble explaining it but it's a very unsettling feeling. I just don't understand how the evaluations I was so sure of a few months ago could change so significantly. It's not like there is a well of new evidence for me to draw on. I'm watching the exact same games that I did back in March/April.
It's roughly the same with story with Paea.
Now, having painted a picture of doom and gloom I should actually point out that there are some things from that original evaluation that I stand by. He is very strong. What you saw at the combine was no fiddle; he really does have an immensely strong upper body. He also does indeed have some good technique.
He comes off at the snap keeping his back low, using those powerful arms and chest muscles to jack the offensive linemen backwards. He has shown at times the ability to literally throw offensive linemen off of their block.
But...
He seems to lack explosion in his legs. If he doesn't rock the offensive guard back with his punch, then he often struggles to get any movement using his leg power alone. His tackling is about average. His awareness of the play is also not great. Other than his "power shrug" for want of a better term, his pass rush moves can be quite limited.
All in all what you end up with is some great raw strength, but not really a lot of polish. I described him previously as a first rounder but looking back now, I'm not so sure I'd use a second rounder on him. A third? Maybe, maybe not, depending on the board. I see him now much more as a development prospect as opposed to a "plug and play" type of guy.
So what caused this switch around? Well, as described earlier the film hasn't changed. It's all the same plays, same games etc. So the problem has to be related to me as an individual. My best guess is this; prior to the draft I had left it quite late before doing the full evaluations and had a ton of players to get through. I even mistakenly thought at one point that the draft was being held a week earlier than it actually was.
So I'm surmising from this is basically just an error of rushing through all the players to get it done, instead of assessing each player on a much closer, more deliberate level. This is something that I'm rectifying now and I should point out it's a process that I've been doing for all of these recaps. So in case you were wondering, yes, I do still think Mark Legree and Anthony Gaitor are unsung, unrecognised gems.
If anything, when I went back and watched those two I came away even more impressed than I had been before.
But we're getting off track. In fact, we've actually jumped ahead of ourselves (I blame you personally). Because in my haste to get to Paea and explain why this has all taken so long I missed Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin. You know, that guy that the Bears took with their first pick and all that.
So what do I think of Carimi? Generally Carimi is strong and pretty sound from a technical perspective. However, originally I compared him to Bryan Bulaga of the Packers. Now? I'm not quite sure he's at that level. One thing I've noticed is that due to Wisconsin being reasonably run heavy, there is a lot more snaps of him to watch in the run game than in the passing game, so that has been something of a hindrance.
As far as run blocking goes I have no real problems with Carimi. He does pretty much everything that is asked of him and he does it consistently, snap after snap. Yet we all know though that you don't sign a left tackle for his run blocking ability, you sign them for their ability to protect your quarterbacks butt.
In that regard Carimi is still good, but putting on my GM hat for a moment I have to think to myself that there are players out there who you've seen much more of when it comes to the passing game. More snaps, more difficult opponents in terms of pass rushers and against defenses that were more geared and ready to stop the pass as opposed to the run. Some of those players showed excellent abilities in pass blocking.
That for me makes the choice of Carimi now seem a little illogical. There were other candidates on the board, all of whom were equally as good, if not better. Critically, decision makers would have seen lots more of them on film and had a much better idea about their consistency from down to down against the pass.
Still, Carimi is a good tackle. Slot him in at the right spot and it'll be interesting to see how he copes with likes of Clay Matthews, Cliff Avril and Ray Edwards twice a year. If nothing else it will force him into a quick learning curve and if he can hang in there and survive against those guys then it'll set him up for a productive career. There is of course one x factor in particular working in his favour; the Bears O-line sucks as it is, so it can't get much worse.
On to round 3 and the Bears took Chris Conte, safety, California. I remember Conte being really good at the combine, but that is of course only a marginally useful tool as far as evaluations go. What I needed to see was on the field action and prior to the draft I hadn't seen a thing, so it was interesting for me to sit down and get a good luck at him finally.
Not least because it rammed home emphatically the sheer pointlessness of the combine, pro days and any other form of evaluation that involves shorts related activities. Conte was a whizz at the combine. He had quick feet, he looked balanced and under control at all times, he cut well in the drills and he seemed to be working really hard.
His film is practically the opposite. Maybe it is some subtle nuance of the Cal Bears defensive scheme, but for a safety Conte seems to acutely lack any understanding of the word "depth", as in, "get depth in coverage because you're the bloody safety man!"
He kept getting drawn in by crossing routes in front of him, even when one of his corners had that covered. As you can probably imagine that left numerous plays where there was a gaping chasm behind him, into which you can expect to see pro level offenses sending their deep receivers, exploiting Conte using various combinations of post routes with either intermediate or deep "in" routes underneath.
He also seems to be less enthusiastic about charging in to make a tackle than he was about flying around the artificial turf in Indianapolis. All in all, wouldn't put much faith in Conte. There really wasn't anything there worth watching and the fact that he was a third round pick is nothing short of astounding.
Again, I understand when teams and analysts look at a group of good players and have varying opinions on how valuable they are. One mans first rounder is another mans third. But then we have players like Chris Conte. I defy any scout, coach, general manager or TV analyst to give me a list of 5 good reasons why Conte should have been taken over guys like Mark Legree. Or even over anybody else in the draft.
Or anyone that went undrafted.
He just does nothing. At all. Not a thing. Watching Conte play is like watching paint dry. There is practically zero evidence to suggest that Conte will amount to anything other than a water boy. Just... I give up. Let's move on.
Skipping the fourth round as the Bears don't have a pick in it (or the seventh), we find ourselves in round five and it's Nathan Enderle, quarterback, Idaho. Now we're talking!
I've been raving about Enderle for a while now and I still am. He played behind a pretty bad O-line in college and at times his wide receivers really let him down, as he hit them in the hands time after time. Those points are important for me because it shrouds the true story behind his completion percentage and also gives us a good look at how he copes under pressure.
One of the key aspects for me though is the variety of routes that Enderle threw to in college. Post routes, corners, deep ins and outs, dump offs, intermediate passes. Enderle has thrown just about every type of route he'll be asked to in the pros. He's run an offense similar in nature to the one he'll be introduced to in Chicago. He's made the type of reads he'll be asked to by Mike Martz against the types of defenses that he'll face on a weekly basis.
To cap it all off, he did all of these things very well, despite the troubles that his offense as a whole had. If I had any criticism of Enderle it would be that sometimes he's a little too inclined to throw over the middle when perhaps there are better options outside. That's not a huge deal though and with time and a bit of patience, practice and diligence in the film room he'll work out of that habit.
Overall I think Enderle is a really good pick and I think he's a great fit for what the Bears do, as well as how their team is set up right now, e.g. they too have a shitty O-line. It will be like being back at Idaho when Enderle steps out onto the field. And that may be sooner than anyone thinks, or hopes. Yes, I'm talking about Jay Cutler.
We'll leave that particular thread hanging for now though and progress to the sixth round where we find J.T. Thomas, linebacker, West Virginia.
The main issue that Thomas has to overcome is adaptation, shifting from a largely 3-4 scheme in college to a 4-3 team in the NFL. Quite where Thomas fits into that equation is also up in the air right now. But he should find a home, if not this year then next.
He's pretty quick. Tackling can sometimes be a little so-so, but generally good. He plays well in pass coverage, has an nose for sniffing out screen passes early and has enough mobility to get around the field and pursue the play. He also has an upside in the form of his special teams experience, which is always a valuable asset for a young guy to bring to the table.
As an overall package I really like Thomas. I think he has a lot of the skills that you want to see from a versatile linebacker, with the ability to contribute to some degree from day one. As a sixth round pick that's really good value for the Bears.
And that is it for the Bears draft class. To be fair, looking at the broad spectrum of picks the Bears did pretty well. Enderle and Thomas are big highlights for me, Carimi pretty good, Paea.. meh, for now. We'll have to wait and see how he pans out.
Chris Conte?
Chris Conte meet Mike Person. Mike Person meet Chris Conte. Enjoy each others terrible film.
Next up, the Detroit Lions.
Now admittedly I've been trying to string these posts out to last us with some football-ish news through the dark days of this lockout. But recently it would appear I've been taking the piss with this Bears post, given that its taken so long to produce.
But there is a good reason. Or at least I think it is.
On April 7th I covered some of the defensive linemen ahead of the draft. One of those players was defensive tackle Stephen Paea, from Oregon State. Paea was taken in the second round by the Bears and this is what I originially wrote about him on April 7th:
"The strength he displayed at the combine (I think it was 49 reps of 225 lbs) is for real. Sometimes he'll just barely get a hand on a running back and yet bring them crashing to the ground. Quick and has pretty good technique. All that helps him to shed blocks. Might slip down because people think he's just a workout warrior, but that's a big mistake. I'm going to put my neck on the line and say he's a worthy first round talent."
So what's the problem then?
The answer is; I have no idea now what made me write that. As part of this series I've been going back and studying each individual player much closer. A good example of this was Colin Kaepernick of the 49ers, who I now feel I didn't give enough credit to before the draft.
And now I'm really beginning to wonder about some of the other evaluations I put up. For example, I've been back and looked at a number of defensive linemen. Nick Fairley is just how I remember him. But reading my review of Corey Liuget and then watching the film, you wouldn't recognise the player I was talking about.
I think on reflection I might also have given too much credit to Adrian Clayborn, and not enough to the likes of J.J. Watt and Ryan Kerrigan. It's odd. I'm having trouble explaining it but it's a very unsettling feeling. I just don't understand how the evaluations I was so sure of a few months ago could change so significantly. It's not like there is a well of new evidence for me to draw on. I'm watching the exact same games that I did back in March/April.
It's roughly the same with story with Paea.
Now, having painted a picture of doom and gloom I should actually point out that there are some things from that original evaluation that I stand by. He is very strong. What you saw at the combine was no fiddle; he really does have an immensely strong upper body. He also does indeed have some good technique.
He comes off at the snap keeping his back low, using those powerful arms and chest muscles to jack the offensive linemen backwards. He has shown at times the ability to literally throw offensive linemen off of their block.
But...
He seems to lack explosion in his legs. If he doesn't rock the offensive guard back with his punch, then he often struggles to get any movement using his leg power alone. His tackling is about average. His awareness of the play is also not great. Other than his "power shrug" for want of a better term, his pass rush moves can be quite limited.
All in all what you end up with is some great raw strength, but not really a lot of polish. I described him previously as a first rounder but looking back now, I'm not so sure I'd use a second rounder on him. A third? Maybe, maybe not, depending on the board. I see him now much more as a development prospect as opposed to a "plug and play" type of guy.
So what caused this switch around? Well, as described earlier the film hasn't changed. It's all the same plays, same games etc. So the problem has to be related to me as an individual. My best guess is this; prior to the draft I had left it quite late before doing the full evaluations and had a ton of players to get through. I even mistakenly thought at one point that the draft was being held a week earlier than it actually was.
So I'm surmising from this is basically just an error of rushing through all the players to get it done, instead of assessing each player on a much closer, more deliberate level. This is something that I'm rectifying now and I should point out it's a process that I've been doing for all of these recaps. So in case you were wondering, yes, I do still think Mark Legree and Anthony Gaitor are unsung, unrecognised gems.
If anything, when I went back and watched those two I came away even more impressed than I had been before.
But we're getting off track. In fact, we've actually jumped ahead of ourselves (I blame you personally). Because in my haste to get to Paea and explain why this has all taken so long I missed Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin. You know, that guy that the Bears took with their first pick and all that.
So what do I think of Carimi? Generally Carimi is strong and pretty sound from a technical perspective. However, originally I compared him to Bryan Bulaga of the Packers. Now? I'm not quite sure he's at that level. One thing I've noticed is that due to Wisconsin being reasonably run heavy, there is a lot more snaps of him to watch in the run game than in the passing game, so that has been something of a hindrance.
As far as run blocking goes I have no real problems with Carimi. He does pretty much everything that is asked of him and he does it consistently, snap after snap. Yet we all know though that you don't sign a left tackle for his run blocking ability, you sign them for their ability to protect your quarterbacks butt.
In that regard Carimi is still good, but putting on my GM hat for a moment I have to think to myself that there are players out there who you've seen much more of when it comes to the passing game. More snaps, more difficult opponents in terms of pass rushers and against defenses that were more geared and ready to stop the pass as opposed to the run. Some of those players showed excellent abilities in pass blocking.
That for me makes the choice of Carimi now seem a little illogical. There were other candidates on the board, all of whom were equally as good, if not better. Critically, decision makers would have seen lots more of them on film and had a much better idea about their consistency from down to down against the pass.
Still, Carimi is a good tackle. Slot him in at the right spot and it'll be interesting to see how he copes with likes of Clay Matthews, Cliff Avril and Ray Edwards twice a year. If nothing else it will force him into a quick learning curve and if he can hang in there and survive against those guys then it'll set him up for a productive career. There is of course one x factor in particular working in his favour; the Bears O-line sucks as it is, so it can't get much worse.
On to round 3 and the Bears took Chris Conte, safety, California. I remember Conte being really good at the combine, but that is of course only a marginally useful tool as far as evaluations go. What I needed to see was on the field action and prior to the draft I hadn't seen a thing, so it was interesting for me to sit down and get a good luck at him finally.
Not least because it rammed home emphatically the sheer pointlessness of the combine, pro days and any other form of evaluation that involves shorts related activities. Conte was a whizz at the combine. He had quick feet, he looked balanced and under control at all times, he cut well in the drills and he seemed to be working really hard.
His film is practically the opposite. Maybe it is some subtle nuance of the Cal Bears defensive scheme, but for a safety Conte seems to acutely lack any understanding of the word "depth", as in, "get depth in coverage because you're the bloody safety man!"
He kept getting drawn in by crossing routes in front of him, even when one of his corners had that covered. As you can probably imagine that left numerous plays where there was a gaping chasm behind him, into which you can expect to see pro level offenses sending their deep receivers, exploiting Conte using various combinations of post routes with either intermediate or deep "in" routes underneath.
He also seems to be less enthusiastic about charging in to make a tackle than he was about flying around the artificial turf in Indianapolis. All in all, wouldn't put much faith in Conte. There really wasn't anything there worth watching and the fact that he was a third round pick is nothing short of astounding.
Again, I understand when teams and analysts look at a group of good players and have varying opinions on how valuable they are. One mans first rounder is another mans third. But then we have players like Chris Conte. I defy any scout, coach, general manager or TV analyst to give me a list of 5 good reasons why Conte should have been taken over guys like Mark Legree. Or even over anybody else in the draft.
Or anyone that went undrafted.
He just does nothing. At all. Not a thing. Watching Conte play is like watching paint dry. There is practically zero evidence to suggest that Conte will amount to anything other than a water boy. Just... I give up. Let's move on.
Skipping the fourth round as the Bears don't have a pick in it (or the seventh), we find ourselves in round five and it's Nathan Enderle, quarterback, Idaho. Now we're talking!
I've been raving about Enderle for a while now and I still am. He played behind a pretty bad O-line in college and at times his wide receivers really let him down, as he hit them in the hands time after time. Those points are important for me because it shrouds the true story behind his completion percentage and also gives us a good look at how he copes under pressure.
One of the key aspects for me though is the variety of routes that Enderle threw to in college. Post routes, corners, deep ins and outs, dump offs, intermediate passes. Enderle has thrown just about every type of route he'll be asked to in the pros. He's run an offense similar in nature to the one he'll be introduced to in Chicago. He's made the type of reads he'll be asked to by Mike Martz against the types of defenses that he'll face on a weekly basis.
To cap it all off, he did all of these things very well, despite the troubles that his offense as a whole had. If I had any criticism of Enderle it would be that sometimes he's a little too inclined to throw over the middle when perhaps there are better options outside. That's not a huge deal though and with time and a bit of patience, practice and diligence in the film room he'll work out of that habit.
Overall I think Enderle is a really good pick and I think he's a great fit for what the Bears do, as well as how their team is set up right now, e.g. they too have a shitty O-line. It will be like being back at Idaho when Enderle steps out onto the field. And that may be sooner than anyone thinks, or hopes. Yes, I'm talking about Jay Cutler.
We'll leave that particular thread hanging for now though and progress to the sixth round where we find J.T. Thomas, linebacker, West Virginia.
The main issue that Thomas has to overcome is adaptation, shifting from a largely 3-4 scheme in college to a 4-3 team in the NFL. Quite where Thomas fits into that equation is also up in the air right now. But he should find a home, if not this year then next.
He's pretty quick. Tackling can sometimes be a little so-so, but generally good. He plays well in pass coverage, has an nose for sniffing out screen passes early and has enough mobility to get around the field and pursue the play. He also has an upside in the form of his special teams experience, which is always a valuable asset for a young guy to bring to the table.
As an overall package I really like Thomas. I think he has a lot of the skills that you want to see from a versatile linebacker, with the ability to contribute to some degree from day one. As a sixth round pick that's really good value for the Bears.
And that is it for the Bears draft class. To be fair, looking at the broad spectrum of picks the Bears did pretty well. Enderle and Thomas are big highlights for me, Carimi pretty good, Paea.. meh, for now. We'll have to wait and see how he pans out.
Chris Conte?
Chris Conte meet Mike Person. Mike Person meet Chris Conte. Enjoy each others terrible film.
Next up, the Detroit Lions.
Sunday, May 08, 2011
2011 NFL Draft; The New Orleans Saints
Before we begin I should point out that yes, I did say it was going to be the Panthers next. But for some reason I can't explain I just started the Saints post yesterday and it wasn't until I reached the very bottom of the post after spellchecking that I suddenly realised what I'd done.
And you can fuck right off if you think I'm doing an entire post about Carolina at this hour. Tough. Here's the Saints;
It's been a funny old time for New Orleans in recent years. In 2008 Drew Brees very nearly topped Dan Marinos' record for most passing yards in the regular season. This would have been a reason for great joy, were it not for the fact that the Saints defense absolutely sucked.
Then in '09 it all seemed to come together. From worst to first, their offense flourished again but so did the defense, culminating in a date with the Indianapolis Colts in their first ever Super Bowl and subsequently a win. The 'Lombardi Gras' swept across New Orleans.
Then in '10 it all went a bit wrong. The offense started to occasionally misfire and the defense went into recession. The final humiliating blow was a loss to Seattle in the first round of the playoffs, a bitter pill to swallow given that the general consensus script said that they should have walked into Washington State and shown those dastardly Seahawks just why it is that 7-9 teams shouldn't be allowed into the playoffs.
The 2011 draft was supposed to be about the Saints getting back on the horse ready for another charge at the Super Bowl. All that was standing in their way was a tricky free agent period, where they expected to lose a number of players. But everything would be alright on the night, right? They could bring a few players in and then shore up any last ditch holes in the draft.
Except that the Union formerly known as the NFLPA threw its toys out of the pram, got up and left the negotiating table, decertified, and now here we are, deep in the middle of a bitterly fought legal battle and lockout.
That left the Saints on uncertain ground headed into the draft. With so many players headed out the door into (eventually) free agency there might have been a temptation for the Saints to work their way down the draft order and accumulate picks. Instead they chose to go in quite the opposite direction.
It all started in the first round with the selection of Defensive End Cameron Jordan with the 24th selection overall. I'm a little surprised simply because I feel that of all the issues that the Saints had, D-line wasn't really one of them. Never the less, pick him they did so the question becomes did they make the right choice?
It's hard to say. I don't mean that in the sense of "I'm copping out of making a decision". I mean it in the sense that a lot of the time in college it wasn't hard to find Jordan, because he was the one with two offensive linemen climbing all over him in an attempt to smother him.
Thus drawing an accurate conclusion based on the fact that he's unlikely to see such attention in the NFL can be difficult. One thing he did display constantly was good strength and a strong desire to chase down plays from behind, for which we have to give him credit. The fact that he was able to achieve the things he did under such pressure from the O-line is a testament to him.
Tentatively then, I'm going to nod in an approving manner at picking Jordan. One of the things that New Orleans has struggled with recently has been pass rush and Jordan offers them hope in the sense that even if all he ever does is occupy blockers and cause a lot of havoc up front, that still gives his rushing linebackers a better chance to get to the QB.
Next up is Running Back Mark Ingram, whom the Saints traded up to get, oddly enough doing a deal with the Patriots to get the 28th pick overall, which is the place where many expected the Patriots to take; Mark Ingram.
The price was a second rounder in 2011 and a first rounder in 2012. And that's what has been causing me a little bit of a problem with this pick. That's a lot to give up just to get your hands on a running back. I say that because the success of running backs is often linked quite significantly to the play of their offensive lines. I'm just not sure, given the depth of the running back class, that this was such a clever decision.
Add to that the fact that the Saints already have a solid back in Pierre Thomas, have Chris Ivory who showed a lot of promise in his rookie year, and still tentatively have Joique Bell and Reggie Bush, providing neither of those two is dumped.
Ingram does offer the Saints something in the sense that he can relieve the pressure off Thomas to be an every down, all the time back, but then Ivory and Bell could have done that as well. Ingram is strong and has some other desirable attributes you want in a running back, but I think the cost of the trade is a problem, especially looking at what was left on the board and where else the Saints could have gone (safety, pass rushing linebacker)
Onto round three then as the Saints gave up that second round pick, and here they double dipped, first at number 72 thanks to a trade with Washington the year before, then their own pick at 88.
At 72 they went Linebacker with Martez Wilson, who I really, really can't buy. The issue I have with Wilson is simple; linebackers are supposed to be baby eating demons who are 24/7 hungry for contact. Wilson seems to be the opposite. He always seemed to be looking for someone else to initiate that contact, then he might follow up in necessary.
Again, this is just the impression I got watching him. He could indeed be a baby eating demon who is hungry for contact 24/7. But if I was a betting man, I'd bet against it. Who knows, maybe he'll read this one day and to the delight of all New Orleans fans he'll ram these words back down my throat. Again though, if I was a betting man....
At number 88 the Saints went with Johnny Patrick, cornerback from Louisville. And right here I think they hit a beauty. I really like Patrick because of his combination of strength against the run and talent in pass coverage. One thing I noted especially was his versatility, including rushing the quarterback from a nickel position.
With Tracey Porter and Jabari Greer on the team, that means if Patrick is going to hit the field, then nickelback is his best shot. When you factor in as well that Gregg Williams isn't averse to a bit of risk taking, including blitzing secondary players, then I think we have a great combination on our hands.
Probably the only other more ideal place for Patrick might have been Green Bay, but New Orleans should serve him well. I think the Saints got a good corner prospect with this pick and somebody that fits their system as well, which is an added bonus. There is a possibility, especially given the free agent situation, that he might have to move to Strong Safety which I think he has the skills to cope with.
Now, due to the machinations of various trades, the Saints then went without a pick until the seventh round, where they double dipped again thanks to a compensatory selection. Which gives us a moment to pause and reflect on what will happen when the compensatory picks are dished out as a result of the 2011 free agency period. New Orleans could be big winners in the 2012 draft.
So, picking 226th overall, the Saints took Greg Romeus, the defensive end from Pittsburgh. He had a back surgery last year that restricted his season but man, if Romeus can recapture his earlier college form (and there is nothing to currently suggest that he wont), then the Saints just grabbed a bargain.
Romeus is by no means flawless. He lacks great speed and sometimes finds himself tricked out on certain running plays, plowing down the line to pursue a fullback that doesn't have the ball and leaving the edge open. But that, if not so much the speed, is coachable.
What he does possess is tremendous strength combined with great use of the hands in the pass rush, and a really relentless drive to pursue the QB. Not sure at this stage whether he'd play as a defensive end or a stand up rush linebacker, but either way I think Romeus has a lot to offer the Saints.
At 243rd overall the Saints went with Linebacker Nate Bussey and wouldn't you just bloody know it, I haven't seen a second of the kid because he wasn't on my radar. So, off I got to investigate and here you get your explanation as to why this post took longer than expected. The things I do for you guys.
And on that quick note hello to everyone in the US, Italy, Denmark and Slovenia who according to Blogger seem to have been, over the last six months or so, the main readers. Obviously the US is well in the lead, but the other three are no slouches themselves, with Italy leading the drive.
Back to Bussey and all I can say is; that was a waste of life. Bussey spent most of his time playing as a kind of bizarre, overweight nickelback. His pass coverage was nothing to write home about and against downfield speed he got toasted more thoroughly than the semi-burnt piece of bread that I'm currently munching on, and that provided me with a handy idea for an analogy.
Tackling was ok but when that is your one and only positively identifiable attribute, and I absolutely mean that, then you have problems. But it's a seventh round pick to be fair and most teams don't expect much from them, which to me is quite a lazy excuse for not properly doing your homework.
Overall then? There's a large piece of me that seems to instinctively hate the Saints, if only because I felt that they kind of got a little lucky along the path to their Super Bowl and nobody seemed to acknowledge that fact, not that it's the Saints fault. You play the hand you're dealt.
But I can't say it was a bad draft. Perhaps they gave up too much for Ingram, but if he can prove to be a more versatile and reliable back than Reggie Bush, then you could argue that he compliments well what is undoubtedly a fearsome passing attack.
Defensively I think they drafted well though. Perhaps they might consider getting a new scout for linebackers in 2012, but other than that I tip my hat to the Saints draft. Jordan, Patrick and Romeus are all good players, and in particular Romeus was a bit of a steal taken as late as he was.
All that should help the Saints with that key problem of reliable pass rush and run defense that they've had in recent seasons. Remember as well that in '09 the Saints proved that their defense only has to get a little bit better, maybe be a top 16 contender, to provide the necessary compliment for that explosive offense. Free agency will be interesting for the Saints, but at this rate it looks like they might end up back in the playoffs in 2011.
And you can fuck right off if you think I'm doing an entire post about Carolina at this hour. Tough. Here's the Saints;
It's been a funny old time for New Orleans in recent years. In 2008 Drew Brees very nearly topped Dan Marinos' record for most passing yards in the regular season. This would have been a reason for great joy, were it not for the fact that the Saints defense absolutely sucked.
Then in '09 it all seemed to come together. From worst to first, their offense flourished again but so did the defense, culminating in a date with the Indianapolis Colts in their first ever Super Bowl and subsequently a win. The 'Lombardi Gras' swept across New Orleans.
Then in '10 it all went a bit wrong. The offense started to occasionally misfire and the defense went into recession. The final humiliating blow was a loss to Seattle in the first round of the playoffs, a bitter pill to swallow given that the general consensus script said that they should have walked into Washington State and shown those dastardly Seahawks just why it is that 7-9 teams shouldn't be allowed into the playoffs.
The 2011 draft was supposed to be about the Saints getting back on the horse ready for another charge at the Super Bowl. All that was standing in their way was a tricky free agent period, where they expected to lose a number of players. But everything would be alright on the night, right? They could bring a few players in and then shore up any last ditch holes in the draft.
Except that the Union formerly known as the NFLPA threw its toys out of the pram, got up and left the negotiating table, decertified, and now here we are, deep in the middle of a bitterly fought legal battle and lockout.
That left the Saints on uncertain ground headed into the draft. With so many players headed out the door into (eventually) free agency there might have been a temptation for the Saints to work their way down the draft order and accumulate picks. Instead they chose to go in quite the opposite direction.
It all started in the first round with the selection of Defensive End Cameron Jordan with the 24th selection overall. I'm a little surprised simply because I feel that of all the issues that the Saints had, D-line wasn't really one of them. Never the less, pick him they did so the question becomes did they make the right choice?
It's hard to say. I don't mean that in the sense of "I'm copping out of making a decision". I mean it in the sense that a lot of the time in college it wasn't hard to find Jordan, because he was the one with two offensive linemen climbing all over him in an attempt to smother him.
Thus drawing an accurate conclusion based on the fact that he's unlikely to see such attention in the NFL can be difficult. One thing he did display constantly was good strength and a strong desire to chase down plays from behind, for which we have to give him credit. The fact that he was able to achieve the things he did under such pressure from the O-line is a testament to him.
Tentatively then, I'm going to nod in an approving manner at picking Jordan. One of the things that New Orleans has struggled with recently has been pass rush and Jordan offers them hope in the sense that even if all he ever does is occupy blockers and cause a lot of havoc up front, that still gives his rushing linebackers a better chance to get to the QB.
Next up is Running Back Mark Ingram, whom the Saints traded up to get, oddly enough doing a deal with the Patriots to get the 28th pick overall, which is the place where many expected the Patriots to take; Mark Ingram.
The price was a second rounder in 2011 and a first rounder in 2012. And that's what has been causing me a little bit of a problem with this pick. That's a lot to give up just to get your hands on a running back. I say that because the success of running backs is often linked quite significantly to the play of their offensive lines. I'm just not sure, given the depth of the running back class, that this was such a clever decision.
Add to that the fact that the Saints already have a solid back in Pierre Thomas, have Chris Ivory who showed a lot of promise in his rookie year, and still tentatively have Joique Bell and Reggie Bush, providing neither of those two is dumped.
Ingram does offer the Saints something in the sense that he can relieve the pressure off Thomas to be an every down, all the time back, but then Ivory and Bell could have done that as well. Ingram is strong and has some other desirable attributes you want in a running back, but I think the cost of the trade is a problem, especially looking at what was left on the board and where else the Saints could have gone (safety, pass rushing linebacker)
Onto round three then as the Saints gave up that second round pick, and here they double dipped, first at number 72 thanks to a trade with Washington the year before, then their own pick at 88.
At 72 they went Linebacker with Martez Wilson, who I really, really can't buy. The issue I have with Wilson is simple; linebackers are supposed to be baby eating demons who are 24/7 hungry for contact. Wilson seems to be the opposite. He always seemed to be looking for someone else to initiate that contact, then he might follow up in necessary.
Again, this is just the impression I got watching him. He could indeed be a baby eating demon who is hungry for contact 24/7. But if I was a betting man, I'd bet against it. Who knows, maybe he'll read this one day and to the delight of all New Orleans fans he'll ram these words back down my throat. Again though, if I was a betting man....
At number 88 the Saints went with Johnny Patrick, cornerback from Louisville. And right here I think they hit a beauty. I really like Patrick because of his combination of strength against the run and talent in pass coverage. One thing I noted especially was his versatility, including rushing the quarterback from a nickel position.
With Tracey Porter and Jabari Greer on the team, that means if Patrick is going to hit the field, then nickelback is his best shot. When you factor in as well that Gregg Williams isn't averse to a bit of risk taking, including blitzing secondary players, then I think we have a great combination on our hands.
Probably the only other more ideal place for Patrick might have been Green Bay, but New Orleans should serve him well. I think the Saints got a good corner prospect with this pick and somebody that fits their system as well, which is an added bonus. There is a possibility, especially given the free agent situation, that he might have to move to Strong Safety which I think he has the skills to cope with.
Now, due to the machinations of various trades, the Saints then went without a pick until the seventh round, where they double dipped again thanks to a compensatory selection. Which gives us a moment to pause and reflect on what will happen when the compensatory picks are dished out as a result of the 2011 free agency period. New Orleans could be big winners in the 2012 draft.
So, picking 226th overall, the Saints took Greg Romeus, the defensive end from Pittsburgh. He had a back surgery last year that restricted his season but man, if Romeus can recapture his earlier college form (and there is nothing to currently suggest that he wont), then the Saints just grabbed a bargain.
Romeus is by no means flawless. He lacks great speed and sometimes finds himself tricked out on certain running plays, plowing down the line to pursue a fullback that doesn't have the ball and leaving the edge open. But that, if not so much the speed, is coachable.
What he does possess is tremendous strength combined with great use of the hands in the pass rush, and a really relentless drive to pursue the QB. Not sure at this stage whether he'd play as a defensive end or a stand up rush linebacker, but either way I think Romeus has a lot to offer the Saints.
At 243rd overall the Saints went with Linebacker Nate Bussey and wouldn't you just bloody know it, I haven't seen a second of the kid because he wasn't on my radar. So, off I got to investigate and here you get your explanation as to why this post took longer than expected. The things I do for you guys.
And on that quick note hello to everyone in the US, Italy, Denmark and Slovenia who according to Blogger seem to have been, over the last six months or so, the main readers. Obviously the US is well in the lead, but the other three are no slouches themselves, with Italy leading the drive.
Back to Bussey and all I can say is; that was a waste of life. Bussey spent most of his time playing as a kind of bizarre, overweight nickelback. His pass coverage was nothing to write home about and against downfield speed he got toasted more thoroughly than the semi-burnt piece of bread that I'm currently munching on, and that provided me with a handy idea for an analogy.
Tackling was ok but when that is your one and only positively identifiable attribute, and I absolutely mean that, then you have problems. But it's a seventh round pick to be fair and most teams don't expect much from them, which to me is quite a lazy excuse for not properly doing your homework.
Overall then? There's a large piece of me that seems to instinctively hate the Saints, if only because I felt that they kind of got a little lucky along the path to their Super Bowl and nobody seemed to acknowledge that fact, not that it's the Saints fault. You play the hand you're dealt.
But I can't say it was a bad draft. Perhaps they gave up too much for Ingram, but if he can prove to be a more versatile and reliable back than Reggie Bush, then you could argue that he compliments well what is undoubtedly a fearsome passing attack.
Defensively I think they drafted well though. Perhaps they might consider getting a new scout for linebackers in 2012, but other than that I tip my hat to the Saints draft. Jordan, Patrick and Romeus are all good players, and in particular Romeus was a bit of a steal taken as late as he was.
All that should help the Saints with that key problem of reliable pass rush and run defense that they've had in recent seasons. Remember as well that in '09 the Saints proved that their defense only has to get a little bit better, maybe be a top 16 contender, to provide the necessary compliment for that explosive offense. Free agency will be interesting for the Saints, but at this rate it looks like they might end up back in the playoffs in 2011.
Thursday, May 05, 2011
2011 NFL Draft; The Atlanta Falcons
It's a funny old thing, the draft.
Traditionally there is a spectrum, somewhere upon which most people fall, with "draft for needs" at one end and "take the best player on the board" at the other.
Normally speaking, teams tend to flirt with both ends of the scale at some point, usually drafting the best player available early and filling needs later on. Take my 49ers for a moment, who kicked off their draft with a DE in Aldon Smith, even though the big need was at corner. They then filled this need later on with lower picks.
Some teams will just purely live and die by their boards, taking whatever comes up. The Raiders are a prime example; if it's fast in the 40-yard dash, they'll pick it.
Very rarely however do you see teams go balls to the wall in the first round and draft a pure need, especially if it means sacrificing a lot to get it. Such teams often believe that overall their team is fine, they're just missing one or maybe two pieces that will complete the puzzle.
This is where the two ends of this thread link together and we get around to talking about the Falcons. They swapped first rounders in this draft with the Browns, but also gave Cleveland their second and fourth round picks in 2011, plus their first and second rounders in 2012.
All in all, that's a hell of a gamble. Your losing two picks this year you could use to make your team better. A team that I would hasten to suggest isn't quite as good overall as the Falcons seem believe it is. Now the future picks is an up in the air question. The league warned teams that future picks might be in jeopardy due to the labor dispute and so many would argue that the Falcons might not be giving up as much as we all think.
But that depends on whether you seriously believe that the league and players wont come to some agreement by next year, or whether indeed you believe like me that all of this back and forth bullshit in the courts is nothing more than a game of chess designed to earn the best possible negotiating position for when the parties finally sit down and hash out the deal.
Come next year then, the Falcons are going to have to hope that their strategy in 2011 brought them a Super Bowl, because their next draft class sure as hell isn't going to.
Now all of this might lead you to believe that I don't like Julio Jones who they traded up to get. And the answer to that is; I don't. For some reason I keep mentally confusing him with A.J. Green but that's another story entirely not relevant to this post. But even if Jones was a great player, was trading away all that lovely pickage worthwhile?
My immediate thought is; no. Wide receivers have a notoriously difficult transition to the NFL, where suddenly they find their route tree has expanded from a few simple quicks and intermediates plus the odd deep pattern and some screens, to a list as long as your arm combined together into a series of plays that make a playbook of inhuman size.
Also, the demands on receivers become much greater. They're expected to run routes with a very high degree of precision and to make potentially one of multiple decisions mid route based on the coverage presented, which at this level can get very complex, very quickly.
Thus I personally feel that wide receiver is just about the last position (except maybe running back) that I would be happy to chuck a haul of picks at in order to fill. And even if I did, Julio Jones would not be my man.
I just find him a little... underwhelming. I turned on the first game expecting to see this super wide receiver who everyone has been saying is pure first round potential, and what I saw was Mike Sims-Walker of the Jaguars; not a bad receiver, but not exactly a franchise player. And not really a first rounder.
Given the amount of picks that were sacrificed I really don't have a good feeling at all about this pick. I understand that the Falcons are a little short at the position, but there were other players who could have been snagged later, and for much better value. Obviously the team in Atlanta disagree.
Next up is LB Akeem Dent, taken in the 3rd round. From what I've seen..... meh.
The first time around that I watched one game I was quite pleased and thinking "this is looking good". At which point I realised that I'd been watching the wrong guy (Christian Robinson). When I went back again I already knew what the answer was going to be because I'd spent the entire game the first time around (still with me?) moaning about, "Jesus, if only that other kid would get off his arse and do something! Nice stance though..."
As you've probably already guessed, that other kid was Dent. And yep, he does take a good, low stance, ready to burst away and make a play. The trouble is he comes out of said stance rather lethargically and then has a tendency to run around the field at half speed and distinctly looking like he's trying to avoid getting his kit dirty.
We can surmise that this is half speed simply because anytime he's asked to rush the QB he promptly gets on his horse and comes flying downhill like a bullet out of a gun, sniffing the glory of a sack. Unfortunately his block destruction skills are about as developed and well honed as mine, i.e. not at all. Occasionally he makes a tackle when the play cuts back into him.
All in all, the Falcons draft is so far looking distinctly rubbish from the viewpoint of my pompous mountain here behind a keyboard.
Whose next? Jacquizz Rodgers? Now we're getting somewhere!
Taken in the fifth, Rodgers is quite a handy player to have in your backfield. Vision is questionable at times if I'm completely honest, but speed, agility and balance are very good. Luckily for Jacquizz, the Falcons tend to play very much an old school style "follow the Fullback into the hole" type running game, where bad vision is less of a problem. Note I said "less" of a problem not "no" problem.
He should make a useful change of pace to Michael Turner. The trouble the Falcons have had with their running game is that trying to beat teams down with Turner every game has proven a successful tactic, but also leads to him spending more time on the bench in the future than they would like as he nurses various injuries.
Rodgers offers them a legitimate alternative runner who isn't just there to take pressure off Turner, but is actually a threat to go the distance in and of himself. With that breakaway speed and cutting ability, Rodgers has something of the Chris Johnson about him. He's not quite that fast, but one on one with a safety I can see him being just as deadly.
On to round six and it's time to take a punt (chortle, chortle) on Matt Bosher, the punter/kicker from Miami. At which point I have to stop, laugh, and then recompose myself. I have nothing against punters and kickers and in fact I accept, probably more than most, how valuable a decent punter/kicker can be.
But I also live in a country where two of the main sports are Association Football (otherwise known as Soccer) and Rugby Union Football (otherwise known as... Rugby Union). Therefore I can confidently tell you that while good kicking is by no means a widely possessed skill, it's also really not that hard to develop with a bit of good coaching and a healthy dose of practice.
No really, it's not that hard.
For the cost of using a draft pick and the associated salary on a Punter/Kicker, you can instead invest in a half decent kicking coach (I'll take $50,000 a year which is less than a practice squad player, keepingthechainsmoving@live.co.uk ) and just train some undrafted kid to get a bit better.
Onwards and upwards then, like a line drive punt with plenty of hang time, into round seven where the Falcons had two picks. First up is offensive guard Andrew Jackson from Fresno State, another player that I had to go back and have a look at.
Except I can't, because for the life of me I cannot beg, borrow, steal, find, stumble across, unearth or otherwise get hold of anything that might be remotely considered "film" of the Fresno State offense.
So it comes down then to Cliff Matthews, Defensive End from South Carolina. Who I think Atlanta have done well to pick up. He's not a bad kid, pretty quick with good technique. His tackling is usually pretty good and he works hard to chase the play.
Take those attributes and put him on a D-line with guys like John Abraham and Kroy Biermann, who can spend the next year or two teaching him how to be a professional and how to develop himself as a Defensive End, and you have a recipe for a good shot at a half decent career.
Overall then, I'd say the Falcons kind of arsed this draft up, unless of course Jackson turns out to be beast, Rodgers runs for 2,000 yards as a rookie and Matthews starts trucking people from day one. I just can't see it myself.
Now I promised myself I wouldn't do the redundant A, B, C thing, not least because most analysts don't even seem to understand what separates a C from a B on their own grade rankings. Instead I'm going with more of the verbal, generalisation type approach.
That is to say, I personally believe that the Falcons had a great chance to get better in this draft and build the foundation of a perennial playoff team, but instead have sold this and next years draft down the river while making very little discernible impact in the short term, and probably not a huge deal more in the long term either.
And yeah, I would rate this as being worse than the Seahawks draft. Much worse. Next up, the Carolina Panthers, probably some time over the weekend. I'm hoping to string this series out a little, so as to give both you and me a meaningful source of football to talk about in the next long month or two.
Traditionally there is a spectrum, somewhere upon which most people fall, with "draft for needs" at one end and "take the best player on the board" at the other.
Normally speaking, teams tend to flirt with both ends of the scale at some point, usually drafting the best player available early and filling needs later on. Take my 49ers for a moment, who kicked off their draft with a DE in Aldon Smith, even though the big need was at corner. They then filled this need later on with lower picks.
Some teams will just purely live and die by their boards, taking whatever comes up. The Raiders are a prime example; if it's fast in the 40-yard dash, they'll pick it.
Very rarely however do you see teams go balls to the wall in the first round and draft a pure need, especially if it means sacrificing a lot to get it. Such teams often believe that overall their team is fine, they're just missing one or maybe two pieces that will complete the puzzle.
This is where the two ends of this thread link together and we get around to talking about the Falcons. They swapped first rounders in this draft with the Browns, but also gave Cleveland their second and fourth round picks in 2011, plus their first and second rounders in 2012.
All in all, that's a hell of a gamble. Your losing two picks this year you could use to make your team better. A team that I would hasten to suggest isn't quite as good overall as the Falcons seem believe it is. Now the future picks is an up in the air question. The league warned teams that future picks might be in jeopardy due to the labor dispute and so many would argue that the Falcons might not be giving up as much as we all think.
But that depends on whether you seriously believe that the league and players wont come to some agreement by next year, or whether indeed you believe like me that all of this back and forth bullshit in the courts is nothing more than a game of chess designed to earn the best possible negotiating position for when the parties finally sit down and hash out the deal.
Come next year then, the Falcons are going to have to hope that their strategy in 2011 brought them a Super Bowl, because their next draft class sure as hell isn't going to.
Now all of this might lead you to believe that I don't like Julio Jones who they traded up to get. And the answer to that is; I don't. For some reason I keep mentally confusing him with A.J. Green but that's another story entirely not relevant to this post. But even if Jones was a great player, was trading away all that lovely pickage worthwhile?
My immediate thought is; no. Wide receivers have a notoriously difficult transition to the NFL, where suddenly they find their route tree has expanded from a few simple quicks and intermediates plus the odd deep pattern and some screens, to a list as long as your arm combined together into a series of plays that make a playbook of inhuman size.
Also, the demands on receivers become much greater. They're expected to run routes with a very high degree of precision and to make potentially one of multiple decisions mid route based on the coverage presented, which at this level can get very complex, very quickly.
Thus I personally feel that wide receiver is just about the last position (except maybe running back) that I would be happy to chuck a haul of picks at in order to fill. And even if I did, Julio Jones would not be my man.
I just find him a little... underwhelming. I turned on the first game expecting to see this super wide receiver who everyone has been saying is pure first round potential, and what I saw was Mike Sims-Walker of the Jaguars; not a bad receiver, but not exactly a franchise player. And not really a first rounder.
Given the amount of picks that were sacrificed I really don't have a good feeling at all about this pick. I understand that the Falcons are a little short at the position, but there were other players who could have been snagged later, and for much better value. Obviously the team in Atlanta disagree.
Next up is LB Akeem Dent, taken in the 3rd round. From what I've seen..... meh.
The first time around that I watched one game I was quite pleased and thinking "this is looking good". At which point I realised that I'd been watching the wrong guy (Christian Robinson). When I went back again I already knew what the answer was going to be because I'd spent the entire game the first time around (still with me?) moaning about, "Jesus, if only that other kid would get off his arse and do something! Nice stance though..."
As you've probably already guessed, that other kid was Dent. And yep, he does take a good, low stance, ready to burst away and make a play. The trouble is he comes out of said stance rather lethargically and then has a tendency to run around the field at half speed and distinctly looking like he's trying to avoid getting his kit dirty.
We can surmise that this is half speed simply because anytime he's asked to rush the QB he promptly gets on his horse and comes flying downhill like a bullet out of a gun, sniffing the glory of a sack. Unfortunately his block destruction skills are about as developed and well honed as mine, i.e. not at all. Occasionally he makes a tackle when the play cuts back into him.
All in all, the Falcons draft is so far looking distinctly rubbish from the viewpoint of my pompous mountain here behind a keyboard.
Whose next? Jacquizz Rodgers? Now we're getting somewhere!
Taken in the fifth, Rodgers is quite a handy player to have in your backfield. Vision is questionable at times if I'm completely honest, but speed, agility and balance are very good. Luckily for Jacquizz, the Falcons tend to play very much an old school style "follow the Fullback into the hole" type running game, where bad vision is less of a problem. Note I said "less" of a problem not "no" problem.
He should make a useful change of pace to Michael Turner. The trouble the Falcons have had with their running game is that trying to beat teams down with Turner every game has proven a successful tactic, but also leads to him spending more time on the bench in the future than they would like as he nurses various injuries.
Rodgers offers them a legitimate alternative runner who isn't just there to take pressure off Turner, but is actually a threat to go the distance in and of himself. With that breakaway speed and cutting ability, Rodgers has something of the Chris Johnson about him. He's not quite that fast, but one on one with a safety I can see him being just as deadly.
On to round six and it's time to take a punt (chortle, chortle) on Matt Bosher, the punter/kicker from Miami. At which point I have to stop, laugh, and then recompose myself. I have nothing against punters and kickers and in fact I accept, probably more than most, how valuable a decent punter/kicker can be.
But I also live in a country where two of the main sports are Association Football (otherwise known as Soccer) and Rugby Union Football (otherwise known as... Rugby Union). Therefore I can confidently tell you that while good kicking is by no means a widely possessed skill, it's also really not that hard to develop with a bit of good coaching and a healthy dose of practice.
No really, it's not that hard.
For the cost of using a draft pick and the associated salary on a Punter/Kicker, you can instead invest in a half decent kicking coach (I'll take $50,000 a year which is less than a practice squad player, keepingthechainsmoving@live.co.uk ) and just train some undrafted kid to get a bit better.
Onwards and upwards then, like a line drive punt with plenty of hang time, into round seven where the Falcons had two picks. First up is offensive guard Andrew Jackson from Fresno State, another player that I had to go back and have a look at.
Except I can't, because for the life of me I cannot beg, borrow, steal, find, stumble across, unearth or otherwise get hold of anything that might be remotely considered "film" of the Fresno State offense.
So it comes down then to Cliff Matthews, Defensive End from South Carolina. Who I think Atlanta have done well to pick up. He's not a bad kid, pretty quick with good technique. His tackling is usually pretty good and he works hard to chase the play.
Take those attributes and put him on a D-line with guys like John Abraham and Kroy Biermann, who can spend the next year or two teaching him how to be a professional and how to develop himself as a Defensive End, and you have a recipe for a good shot at a half decent career.
Overall then, I'd say the Falcons kind of arsed this draft up, unless of course Jackson turns out to be beast, Rodgers runs for 2,000 yards as a rookie and Matthews starts trucking people from day one. I just can't see it myself.
Now I promised myself I wouldn't do the redundant A, B, C thing, not least because most analysts don't even seem to understand what separates a C from a B on their own grade rankings. Instead I'm going with more of the verbal, generalisation type approach.
That is to say, I personally believe that the Falcons had a great chance to get better in this draft and build the foundation of a perennial playoff team, but instead have sold this and next years draft down the river while making very little discernible impact in the short term, and probably not a huge deal more in the long term either.
And yeah, I would rate this as being worse than the Seahawks draft. Much worse. Next up, the Carolina Panthers, probably some time over the weekend. I'm hoping to string this series out a little, so as to give both you and me a meaningful source of football to talk about in the next long month or two.
Sunday, April 10, 2011
2011 NFL Draft: Linebackers
Finally, finally got through them all. I'm also going to briefly throw in some of the players I covered the other day in the D-line section who I think might have a shot as linebackers.
It should be noted these players are presented in no particular order, except that I've put the D-line/OLB prospects first. As for the rest, I just collected the names and went through them:
- Aldon Smith. Covered him the other day with D-linemen. Some think he might have a future as a 3-4 OLB. I can see that. Excellent player.
- Ryan Kerrigan. Ditto above. Has that burst in his first step that could prove very useful as a pass rushing OLB.
- J.J Watt. Literally the same as above, right down to the burst.
- Allen Bailey. Speed to burn might find a use as a rushing linebacker.
- Justin Houston. Very well suited to OLB role. Speed is plentiful. Needs to work on run technique.
- Jabaal Sheard. With his speed and technique, could pull off being an OLB.
- Chris Carter. I compared him a little to DeMarcus Ware, which says it all.
- Dontay Moch. Probably more suited to being a 3-4 OLB than he is a D-end.
Now the proper linebackers:
- Jeremy Beal. Definitely suited as an outside rushing linebacker. Fast and strong, he just keeps on fighting to get to the quarterback. He tracks very well down the line. Causes a ton of mayhem. An excellent prospect.
- Von Miller. Strong and quick, but gets blocked too easily. On pass rushing downs he takes far too wide a line. It's almost like he's trying to run right around the tackle without ever making contact and against good tackles and good quarterbacks that simply wont work. He needs to be coached out of it, and if that's possible then in all likely hood he will make a terrific pass rusher, but that's still an "if".
- Akeem Ayers. Has more fans than Justin Bieber, but I don't understand why. He's not especially strong or quick, technically not all that proficient and just generally seems to spend a lot of time watching the game go by. Occasionally he gets a pure stroke of luck and ends up with a sack, but very much more by chance than effort. Really can't understand it. He'll probably notch 20 sacks in his rookie year now just to prove me wrong.
- Bruce Miller. Probably should have been in the linemen section to be honest. Average at best. Painfully slow off the snap.
- Kenny Rowe. Quite lively, keeps running all the time. Uses his hands well. Nothing sensational, but with time and coaching has potential to grow. Might be a product for the future.
- Bruce Carter. Tackling is normally very good, especially in the open field. Pass coverage leaves quite a bit to be desired though.
- Mason Foster. Again, tackling is pretty good but pass coverage is very average.
- Ross Homan. Not the greatest linebacker. Pass coverage is ok. Reacts quite quickly to what he sees though. Lot of work physically to make him into a high level prospect.
- Lawrence Wilson. Solid open field tackler. Good lateral movement and pursuit across the field. Pass coverage is not bad. Little too keen though to come downhill in the run game, where he often takes a bad angle and gets shut out of the play. Overall reasonably solid, if not spectacular.
- Doug Hogue. Not the strongest, but pretty nifty on his feet. Not sold at this moment in time. His career will depend heavily on the level of coaching he receives.
- J.T. Thomas. Not the worlds greatest tackler due to being a little under sized, but very fast and incredibly smart. The way he sniffs out screen plays you'd think he was in the offensive huddle. Great pass defense. A leader. Flows to the ball brilliantly. Holds the point of attack when required. Fights hard to get to the ball carrier. Pursues from behind really well. Can play inside or out, and special teams. I think it's safe to say there will be a place on my 2011 watch list for Thomas. Excellent prospect.
- Brian Rolle. Pretty quick physically, but mentally seems to be a step behind everyone else. Not a bad linebacker. The question will be what his coaches can do with those physical skills. Can they teach him how to read the plays better?
- Jonas Mouton. Has a bit of speed, but spends most of the game watching. Might as well charge him for a front row seat, it can be that bad at times.
- Adrian Moten. Tough guy, pretty smart and reasonably quick. Reads the play well which helps. Overall pretty handy.
- Michael Morgan. Quick off the snap, has a really good burst. Tackling is ok. Another rushing linebacker.
- Malcolm Smith. Quite tough and a surprising turn of speed with the ball in his hands. Has patience to not dive straight into the wash and get shut out which is rare among young players. A good prospect at inside linebacker.
- Martez Wilson. Fairly highly touted but seems very reluctant to make contact. Not sure if "scared" is really the right word, more just a little hesitant. Seems to be waiting always for someone else to make the first hit, and even then not overly keen to pile in and help. Makes some tackles, but only just. Always displays body language that to me suggests relief when he's blocked. It might all just be down to confusion, possibly just not sure of what is happening in front of him. Wouldn't touch him.
- Quan Sturdivant. Pretty strong. Sees things happening early and reacts quickly to it. Good pass coverage skills. Run defense needs work. Not an outstanding prospect I think, but pretty solid. Would make a good 3-4 round pick.
- Casey Matthews. Shares many of the traits with his brother. Tough. Great speed coming downhill. Smart and reacts quickly to what he sees. Good pass coverage. Relentless. Watching him reminds me most of Patrick Willis which is obviously a good thing. I can see him as an inside backer in a 3-4. Excellent.
- Kelvin Sheppard. Didn't get to see enough so not really placed to comment.
- Greg Jones. Same as above.
- Nate Irving. Not the fastest or the strongest, but smart, very instinctive, with quick reactions. Normally a sure tackler. Brains make up for what he lacks in physical skills. With a bit more time in the weight room will only get better.
- Colin McCarthy. Bit hold and cold. Sometimes sees something and comes roaring down hill to break it up. Sometimes however he can be very slow to react. Pass coverage is not great. Get's stuck on blocks too easily.
- Mario Harvey. Run of the mill linebacker. Sometimes not very aware of what's happening around him. Some good tackles, but all too often finds himself stuck on a block somewhere. I heard him described somewhere as being great at shedding blocks; either that guy was high or he caught him on a great day.
- Mark Herzlich. Ultimately a mixed bag. If you want a great pass defending linebacker who can play well in space, Herzlich is definitely your man. But if you want a run stopping/pass rushing beast then leave well alone. Quite the Jekyll and Hyde player, more so than I previously had thought.
- Scott Lutrus. Not the greatest pass rusher in the world. Pretty mobile sideline to sideline. Good in pass coverage. Good, physical tackler. He's the kind of player I can see the Texans taking in the later rounds to boost their badly flagging pass defense.
- Mike Mohamed. Pass coverage is ok. Closes well on intended receivers. Sometimes gets good penetration into the backfield. I thought he had a good combine as well. Overall though you're just left with this underwhelming feeling. It's difficult to explain.
- Chris White. Can burn some when he chooses. Often quick play recognition. Not bad pass coverage. Overall not as polished as some of the other prospects, but could make a nice late round/undrafted player.
- Alex Wujciak. At times he looks hilariously slow but oddly enough that often seems to work in his favour, as he's too slow to get caught out fully by misdirection. It's kind of an enforced sense of patience. He's pretty smart and alert to what's happening around him and in front of him. He's a good tackler. I could see Wujciak as the kind of guy that will go undrafted but you'd want to bring along to camp just to get a closer look for yourself. There's potential in there, as strange as that may sound.
- Obi Ezeh. Is pretty quick in sideline to sideline terms. Quick play recognition. Hard tackler. Not really much of a pass rusher.
Phew! Finally made it all the way through them. Next up is the final group, which will probably be the toughest; defensive backs. That will include both Corners and Safeties. I'm probably just gonna bung them into one post, but I might split it for ease and to get the first post out a little quicker for you all.
After that I have one last nefarious plan before the draft. I'm collecting up a list of all the extra players that I'm seeing along the way, as well as looking deeper at some of the areas previously covered like wide receivers. I'm gonna hopefully crank out a final post that will include all of those and it'll be a mixed bag so it's gonna end up being quite huge. But hopefully worth it.
Expect then either;
a) the first post on Corners by Wednesday/Thursday or,
b) the whole defensive backs some time over the weekend.
It should be noted these players are presented in no particular order, except that I've put the D-line/OLB prospects first. As for the rest, I just collected the names and went through them:
- Aldon Smith. Covered him the other day with D-linemen. Some think he might have a future as a 3-4 OLB. I can see that. Excellent player.
- Ryan Kerrigan. Ditto above. Has that burst in his first step that could prove very useful as a pass rushing OLB.
- J.J Watt. Literally the same as above, right down to the burst.
- Allen Bailey. Speed to burn might find a use as a rushing linebacker.
- Justin Houston. Very well suited to OLB role. Speed is plentiful. Needs to work on run technique.
- Jabaal Sheard. With his speed and technique, could pull off being an OLB.
- Chris Carter. I compared him a little to DeMarcus Ware, which says it all.
- Dontay Moch. Probably more suited to being a 3-4 OLB than he is a D-end.
Now the proper linebackers:
- Jeremy Beal. Definitely suited as an outside rushing linebacker. Fast and strong, he just keeps on fighting to get to the quarterback. He tracks very well down the line. Causes a ton of mayhem. An excellent prospect.
- Von Miller. Strong and quick, but gets blocked too easily. On pass rushing downs he takes far too wide a line. It's almost like he's trying to run right around the tackle without ever making contact and against good tackles and good quarterbacks that simply wont work. He needs to be coached out of it, and if that's possible then in all likely hood he will make a terrific pass rusher, but that's still an "if".
- Akeem Ayers. Has more fans than Justin Bieber, but I don't understand why. He's not especially strong or quick, technically not all that proficient and just generally seems to spend a lot of time watching the game go by. Occasionally he gets a pure stroke of luck and ends up with a sack, but very much more by chance than effort. Really can't understand it. He'll probably notch 20 sacks in his rookie year now just to prove me wrong.
- Bruce Miller. Probably should have been in the linemen section to be honest. Average at best. Painfully slow off the snap.
- Kenny Rowe. Quite lively, keeps running all the time. Uses his hands well. Nothing sensational, but with time and coaching has potential to grow. Might be a product for the future.
- Bruce Carter. Tackling is normally very good, especially in the open field. Pass coverage leaves quite a bit to be desired though.
- Mason Foster. Again, tackling is pretty good but pass coverage is very average.
- Ross Homan. Not the greatest linebacker. Pass coverage is ok. Reacts quite quickly to what he sees though. Lot of work physically to make him into a high level prospect.
- Lawrence Wilson. Solid open field tackler. Good lateral movement and pursuit across the field. Pass coverage is not bad. Little too keen though to come downhill in the run game, where he often takes a bad angle and gets shut out of the play. Overall reasonably solid, if not spectacular.
- Doug Hogue. Not the strongest, but pretty nifty on his feet. Not sold at this moment in time. His career will depend heavily on the level of coaching he receives.
- J.T. Thomas. Not the worlds greatest tackler due to being a little under sized, but very fast and incredibly smart. The way he sniffs out screen plays you'd think he was in the offensive huddle. Great pass defense. A leader. Flows to the ball brilliantly. Holds the point of attack when required. Fights hard to get to the ball carrier. Pursues from behind really well. Can play inside or out, and special teams. I think it's safe to say there will be a place on my 2011 watch list for Thomas. Excellent prospect.
- Brian Rolle. Pretty quick physically, but mentally seems to be a step behind everyone else. Not a bad linebacker. The question will be what his coaches can do with those physical skills. Can they teach him how to read the plays better?
- Jonas Mouton. Has a bit of speed, but spends most of the game watching. Might as well charge him for a front row seat, it can be that bad at times.
- Adrian Moten. Tough guy, pretty smart and reasonably quick. Reads the play well which helps. Overall pretty handy.
- Michael Morgan. Quick off the snap, has a really good burst. Tackling is ok. Another rushing linebacker.
- Malcolm Smith. Quite tough and a surprising turn of speed with the ball in his hands. Has patience to not dive straight into the wash and get shut out which is rare among young players. A good prospect at inside linebacker.
- Martez Wilson. Fairly highly touted but seems very reluctant to make contact. Not sure if "scared" is really the right word, more just a little hesitant. Seems to be waiting always for someone else to make the first hit, and even then not overly keen to pile in and help. Makes some tackles, but only just. Always displays body language that to me suggests relief when he's blocked. It might all just be down to confusion, possibly just not sure of what is happening in front of him. Wouldn't touch him.
- Quan Sturdivant. Pretty strong. Sees things happening early and reacts quickly to it. Good pass coverage skills. Run defense needs work. Not an outstanding prospect I think, but pretty solid. Would make a good 3-4 round pick.
- Casey Matthews. Shares many of the traits with his brother. Tough. Great speed coming downhill. Smart and reacts quickly to what he sees. Good pass coverage. Relentless. Watching him reminds me most of Patrick Willis which is obviously a good thing. I can see him as an inside backer in a 3-4. Excellent.
- Kelvin Sheppard. Didn't get to see enough so not really placed to comment.
- Greg Jones. Same as above.
- Nate Irving. Not the fastest or the strongest, but smart, very instinctive, with quick reactions. Normally a sure tackler. Brains make up for what he lacks in physical skills. With a bit more time in the weight room will only get better.
- Colin McCarthy. Bit hold and cold. Sometimes sees something and comes roaring down hill to break it up. Sometimes however he can be very slow to react. Pass coverage is not great. Get's stuck on blocks too easily.
- Mario Harvey. Run of the mill linebacker. Sometimes not very aware of what's happening around him. Some good tackles, but all too often finds himself stuck on a block somewhere. I heard him described somewhere as being great at shedding blocks; either that guy was high or he caught him on a great day.
- Mark Herzlich. Ultimately a mixed bag. If you want a great pass defending linebacker who can play well in space, Herzlich is definitely your man. But if you want a run stopping/pass rushing beast then leave well alone. Quite the Jekyll and Hyde player, more so than I previously had thought.
- Scott Lutrus. Not the greatest pass rusher in the world. Pretty mobile sideline to sideline. Good in pass coverage. Good, physical tackler. He's the kind of player I can see the Texans taking in the later rounds to boost their badly flagging pass defense.
- Mike Mohamed. Pass coverage is ok. Closes well on intended receivers. Sometimes gets good penetration into the backfield. I thought he had a good combine as well. Overall though you're just left with this underwhelming feeling. It's difficult to explain.
- Chris White. Can burn some when he chooses. Often quick play recognition. Not bad pass coverage. Overall not as polished as some of the other prospects, but could make a nice late round/undrafted player.
- Alex Wujciak. At times he looks hilariously slow but oddly enough that often seems to work in his favour, as he's too slow to get caught out fully by misdirection. It's kind of an enforced sense of patience. He's pretty smart and alert to what's happening around him and in front of him. He's a good tackler. I could see Wujciak as the kind of guy that will go undrafted but you'd want to bring along to camp just to get a closer look for yourself. There's potential in there, as strange as that may sound.
- Obi Ezeh. Is pretty quick in sideline to sideline terms. Quick play recognition. Hard tackler. Not really much of a pass rusher.
Phew! Finally made it all the way through them. Next up is the final group, which will probably be the toughest; defensive backs. That will include both Corners and Safeties. I'm probably just gonna bung them into one post, but I might split it for ease and to get the first post out a little quicker for you all.
After that I have one last nefarious plan before the draft. I'm collecting up a list of all the extra players that I'm seeing along the way, as well as looking deeper at some of the areas previously covered like wide receivers. I'm gonna hopefully crank out a final post that will include all of those and it'll be a mixed bag so it's gonna end up being quite huge. But hopefully worth it.
Expect then either;
a) the first post on Corners by Wednesday/Thursday or,
b) the whole defensive backs some time over the weekend.
Sunday, April 03, 2011
2011 NFL Draft: Tight Ends & Offensive Linemen
Okey Dokey, so I finally solved my editing problem. It turns out that the problem I was having with Blogger (not recognising the use of the Enter/Return key) coincided time wise with the introduction of their new post editing function. A more cynical person than me would hasten to suggest that this was done to deliberately force people to use the new editing layout, but like I say, I'm not that cynical......
Anyway. The first thing that you might notice is the font of the text changing. Until I can figure out what a) works best and b) I like best, you might find the font changes every now and again. Tough, is the word I'm looking for, (you don't come here for my charm, I know that much).
Now onto business. I've spent the last few days pouring over the Offensive Line prospects for the 2011 NFL Draft (and often getting side tracked by future players as well, such as Aaron Murray & Matt Kalil). I'm not sure if I posted the other day my thoughts on the Tight Ends so I'll throw that in first, though to be honest I haven't given them that much attention. I present to you now, as promised, my findings thus far;
Tight Ends:
- Kyle Rudolph. Not a bad route runner if I'm honest, but I have a question mark over the safety of his hands. Playing down the middle, Tight Ends often serve as a conveniently observable outlet, but Rudolph doesn't inspire much confidence as a pass catcher. Distinctly over rated I feel.
- D.J. Williams. Conversely, Williams has pretty darn safe hands. Couple that with good run blocking skills and you have the makings of a pretty solid Tight End. Unfortunately he's not the fastest in the world and his run after the catch ability leaves a lot to be desired. He's one of those players who will make a great catch and then disappear under a pile of linebackers.
- Weslye Saunders. Haven't really seen enough of Saunders, but what I did see was about average. Can't make a definitive statement at this stage, but it's likely he'll be just another run of the mill Tight End.
- Lance Kendricks. Very strong, good run blocker, pretty good routes, nice hands and ploughs over people after the catch. My top rated Tight End thus far. Easily out shown the other three above.
Offensive Linemen:
- Nate Solder. I Remember being very impressed with Solder at the combine. Then I watched him in an actual game(s) and was very disappointed. There were some nice flashes at times, but way too many occasions where he just get beaten straight off the snap. I'm not sure how he ended up rated so highly. People must be watching way different tape than me.
- Anthony Castonzo. My lasting memory of watching Castonzo is seeing him get continually beaten around the edge by Robert Quinn. On this evidence, guys like DeMarcus Ware are going to tear him to pieces. I really, really would not want to pick Castonzo.
- Tyron Smith. If I was hauling Smith in for an interview and medical, I'd want his hearing checked because he must be deaf. The guy misses probably 75% of all snaps. God knows what he's waiting for. He's also far too eager to hit the turf and try a cut block when things look a little tough. Very worrying.
- Gabe Carimi. By this point you're probably worried that this isn't the year for Offensive Tackles. But there is hope and Gabe Carimi represents a fair chunk of it. Generally a very solid player, strong, technically sound, and with a surprising burst of speed when he needs it, Carimi is definitely a top tackle. He reminds me a lot of Bryan Bulaga who I was pretty high on in 2010 and who went on to have an excellent season in Green Bay.
- John Moffitt. A guard by trade, Moffitt thoroughly impressed me. Strong, with very good technique, good awareness generally of what was going on around him, and flips his hips into the hole nicely. A great inside talent, I hope Moffitt gets the recognition he deserves.
- Mike Pouncey. The Center for Florida and brother to another famous Center called Pouncey. What surprised me is how little footage there is available, anywhere! The little that I did get to see wasn't all that, but I didn't get a good enough look to make any judgement. I'll have to sit on this one for now.
- Derek Sherrod. Up there with Carimi, easily. These two would probably be my top two tackles. Sherrod was very sound technically, had great awareness of what was happening around him, great footwork, great use of the hands, and just generally a badass Offensive Tackle. Will probably make it out of the first because he doesn't have enough hype, but is easily a first round talent.
- Benjamin Ijalana. I've heard some rave reviews on Ijalana, but I was honestly left unimpressed. Just an average College tackle. Not bad, but nothing special.
- Rodney Hudson. My highest rated inside linemen. Strong, technically very gifted, happily throws himself into blocks and has no fear. Runs like a demon (for an O-linemen) and always seems to have a ton of energy. In my humble opinion, an easy first round pick.
- Stefen Wisniewski. I hate it when players have difficult names. Why can't every player just be called John Smith? Nice and easy. But I digress. Wisnie-whats-his-name is a Guard/Center prospect, who does one thing really well and one thing really badly. Pass Protection; very good, very stout. Run Blocking; terrible, gets dumped most of the time. It's probably just a question of over extending in the run game and with a bit of work could be solved. More of a project though. Would fit the Colts/Texans ideally.
- Orlando Franklin. Excellent Guard. Very stout in both phases, good technique, and has an aggressive streak which I like in an Offensive Linemen. Again I'm not hearing too much about him, but a good player in the making.
- Joel Figueroa. What was I saying earlier about names? Guard, and a very good one at that. Highly likely to go undrafted, you might never even hear his name again, but I was impressed and I hope someone (*cough* 49ers) pick him up and give him a shot.
- Justin Boren. Another potential undrafted Guard. But again I hope he gets a shot. Strong, gets some great leverage at times, and finishes every block hard. I was very impressed.
So that's what I've come up with so far. Now all this throws up something of a problem. Because essentially I'm backing a lot of players who don't get much air time on the networks, while laughing in the face of some of the most touted prospects. Someone has to be wrong. That means I'm either a secret genius of the draft, or I'm a complete raving fool.
I'll let you know the answer just as soon as I finish building my patented death ray...
... and I'll be back either Monday or Tuesday to start giving you my thoughts on the Defensive side of this years draft.
Anyway. The first thing that you might notice is the font of the text changing. Until I can figure out what a) works best and b) I like best, you might find the font changes every now and again. Tough, is the word I'm looking for, (you don't come here for my charm, I know that much).
Now onto business. I've spent the last few days pouring over the Offensive Line prospects for the 2011 NFL Draft (and often getting side tracked by future players as well, such as Aaron Murray & Matt Kalil). I'm not sure if I posted the other day my thoughts on the Tight Ends so I'll throw that in first, though to be honest I haven't given them that much attention. I present to you now, as promised, my findings thus far;
Tight Ends:
- Kyle Rudolph. Not a bad route runner if I'm honest, but I have a question mark over the safety of his hands. Playing down the middle, Tight Ends often serve as a conveniently observable outlet, but Rudolph doesn't inspire much confidence as a pass catcher. Distinctly over rated I feel.
- D.J. Williams. Conversely, Williams has pretty darn safe hands. Couple that with good run blocking skills and you have the makings of a pretty solid Tight End. Unfortunately he's not the fastest in the world and his run after the catch ability leaves a lot to be desired. He's one of those players who will make a great catch and then disappear under a pile of linebackers.
- Weslye Saunders. Haven't really seen enough of Saunders, but what I did see was about average. Can't make a definitive statement at this stage, but it's likely he'll be just another run of the mill Tight End.
- Lance Kendricks. Very strong, good run blocker, pretty good routes, nice hands and ploughs over people after the catch. My top rated Tight End thus far. Easily out shown the other three above.
Offensive Linemen:
- Nate Solder. I Remember being very impressed with Solder at the combine. Then I watched him in an actual game(s) and was very disappointed. There were some nice flashes at times, but way too many occasions where he just get beaten straight off the snap. I'm not sure how he ended up rated so highly. People must be watching way different tape than me.
- Anthony Castonzo. My lasting memory of watching Castonzo is seeing him get continually beaten around the edge by Robert Quinn. On this evidence, guys like DeMarcus Ware are going to tear him to pieces. I really, really would not want to pick Castonzo.
- Tyron Smith. If I was hauling Smith in for an interview and medical, I'd want his hearing checked because he must be deaf. The guy misses probably 75% of all snaps. God knows what he's waiting for. He's also far too eager to hit the turf and try a cut block when things look a little tough. Very worrying.
- Gabe Carimi. By this point you're probably worried that this isn't the year for Offensive Tackles. But there is hope and Gabe Carimi represents a fair chunk of it. Generally a very solid player, strong, technically sound, and with a surprising burst of speed when he needs it, Carimi is definitely a top tackle. He reminds me a lot of Bryan Bulaga who I was pretty high on in 2010 and who went on to have an excellent season in Green Bay.
- John Moffitt. A guard by trade, Moffitt thoroughly impressed me. Strong, with very good technique, good awareness generally of what was going on around him, and flips his hips into the hole nicely. A great inside talent, I hope Moffitt gets the recognition he deserves.
- Mike Pouncey. The Center for Florida and brother to another famous Center called Pouncey. What surprised me is how little footage there is available, anywhere! The little that I did get to see wasn't all that, but I didn't get a good enough look to make any judgement. I'll have to sit on this one for now.
- Derek Sherrod. Up there with Carimi, easily. These two would probably be my top two tackles. Sherrod was very sound technically, had great awareness of what was happening around him, great footwork, great use of the hands, and just generally a badass Offensive Tackle. Will probably make it out of the first because he doesn't have enough hype, but is easily a first round talent.
- Benjamin Ijalana. I've heard some rave reviews on Ijalana, but I was honestly left unimpressed. Just an average College tackle. Not bad, but nothing special.
- Rodney Hudson. My highest rated inside linemen. Strong, technically very gifted, happily throws himself into blocks and has no fear. Runs like a demon (for an O-linemen) and always seems to have a ton of energy. In my humble opinion, an easy first round pick.
- Stefen Wisniewski. I hate it when players have difficult names. Why can't every player just be called John Smith? Nice and easy. But I digress. Wisnie-whats-his-name is a Guard/Center prospect, who does one thing really well and one thing really badly. Pass Protection; very good, very stout. Run Blocking; terrible, gets dumped most of the time. It's probably just a question of over extending in the run game and with a bit of work could be solved. More of a project though. Would fit the Colts/Texans ideally.
- Orlando Franklin. Excellent Guard. Very stout in both phases, good technique, and has an aggressive streak which I like in an Offensive Linemen. Again I'm not hearing too much about him, but a good player in the making.
- Joel Figueroa. What was I saying earlier about names? Guard, and a very good one at that. Highly likely to go undrafted, you might never even hear his name again, but I was impressed and I hope someone (*cough* 49ers) pick him up and give him a shot.
- Justin Boren. Another potential undrafted Guard. But again I hope he gets a shot. Strong, gets some great leverage at times, and finishes every block hard. I was very impressed.
So that's what I've come up with so far. Now all this throws up something of a problem. Because essentially I'm backing a lot of players who don't get much air time on the networks, while laughing in the face of some of the most touted prospects. Someone has to be wrong. That means I'm either a secret genius of the draft, or I'm a complete raving fool.
I'll let you know the answer just as soon as I finish building my patented death ray...
... and I'll be back either Monday or Tuesday to start giving you my thoughts on the Defensive side of this years draft.
Friday, March 25, 2011
2011 Draft: Running backs
Every now and again, the planets align, the moon passes through Capricorn, and I manage to produce a post on time. On that note, let's get right down to business by looking at some of the running back prospects for the 2011 draft. There will be some omissions, and by that you can just generally assume that I don't have much faith in them. The players I like are presented here.
- Mark Ingram: Without question the best back in the draft. Just... no arguments. The combination of vision, agility, acceleration, speed and power. I don't think I need to belabour this point any further. Just take note when this guy gets the ball.
- DeMarco Murray: Real talented player. Did well at the combine and everything I've seen in game tells me that Murray is going to be a hit in the NFL. I don't think he's getting enough credit.
- Kendall Hunter: I love watching Kendall Hunter play. Fun back who has real talent, strong, hard working. Hunter will probably drop a little in the draft which is a shame, because he has a lot to bring to the table for whoever drafts him.
- Shane Vereen: This kid has simply ridiculous agility. You see him put a foot in the ground one second, and the next he's darting off in a new direction. Just superb. Not sure where Vereen is expected to go, but he has serious potential. He reminds me a bit of Jamaal Charles.
- Jacquizz Rodgers: I was a little worried at times a Rodgers's vision, but other than that he's an excellent back. Again, he's fast, very agile, great balance.
- Jordan Todman: I wasn't hot on Todman for a long time, but literally in the last few days I've seen more and more of him and I've changed my mind. Todman has a lot of versatility, not fully a power back but not really a speedster either. What he is, is a pretty sound draft pick.
- Taiwan Jones: Another agile, tough, well balanced back. Again not such a big name, certainly not one people seem to be raving about, but a lot of talent. At this point I'm risking giving another fairly generic description, so I'll just say that watching Jones reminded me of Ahmad Bradshaw.
Now this might seem like an odd thing to tack on to a post about running backs, but I've also seen some film of...
- Kevin Riley: Quarterback. Not the best quarterback in the world. But talented. Nice footwork, pretty good arm, good touch and accuracy. This might just be me. I have these moments sometimes when I get caught up watching a player and all the pieces of the jigsaw seem to be fitting in place. I may be wrong. And we may never know. Riley is unlikely to get drafted, but maybe he will work his way up through someones practice squad. I'm rooting for him, and I'm probably going to sneak him on to my 2011 rookie watch list.
And finally.... nothing has changed in the labor situation. Both sides are still bitching about how hard off they are. Adrian Peterson still seems to think that being a highly paid football player is like being a slave. And the fans are still getting shafted.
Though one Cleveland fan might be about to fight back. He's filed a suit against the NFL for something like "conspiring to deprive him of football" after he purchased a Personal Seat License. I forget the details, because honestly the case has little chance of going anywhere, but it's nice to see that fans are starting to push back.
Monday, March 14, 2011
A 2011 Hail Mary
Well, I've finished looking at the Quarterbacks ahead of the 2011 draft (if there is one). There is always the chance I'll come back to this, especially given the potential for a work stoppage giving me more time for further review. At the very least I'm happy for now that I know enough about most of them. So let's begin.
Blaine Gabbert: If I had a ten foot barge pole, I wouldn't touch Blaine Gabbert with it. In fact, if you gave me your ten foot barge pole, I wouldn't even touch him with that. And it has nothing to do with poor hygiene. It has everything to do with the fact that he looks terrible on film.
I watched one game where he faced a three man rush on a regular basis, and he was bailing out of the pocket before those three were even close. In the NFL, staring down the face of a high speed blitz, I can see Gabbert collapsing like a wet house of cards. I just wouldn't go near him.
Cam Newton: I hate Cam Newton already and he hasn't even entered the league yet. I've never known someone to receive so much hype, while showing such a lack of transferable talent. He runs quickly, I get that. He cuts with an insane level of agility. As a wide receiver or running back, Newton could probably have a reasonable shout providing he could learn to run routes.
But as a Quarterback he looks doomed to end as a bust. I don't have enough fingers and toes to count the amount of times I saw him under throw receivers who were open down the field. He just seems to lack any demonstrable consistency or skill throwing into tight windows that will transfer to the NFL. He'll either tear the league to pieces with his feet, or they'll tear him to pieces in the pocket.
Ryan Mallett: I'm still undecided on Mallett. Apparently he's an asshole of the highest order. There are question marks over possible drug use. All in all, a lot of things that could seriously impact his career, and they're all things I can't really do anything to assess.
On the field, he's fine. I have zero questions about his level of playing ability. But a lack of hard work and leadership, if these things are indeed true, could seriously effect his ability to blend in with a team. I'm just not sure right now.
Jake Locker: Much the same as Newton, I worry about Locker as a passer. I'm not convinced. I certainly wouldn't use a first rounder on him. He can run and sometimes he can throw great, but consistency from the pocket? I'm just not happy with Locker. I can see him being a Jimmy Clausen type.
Colin Kaepernick: This is a running theme, but I'm not sold on Kaepernick as a passer. A lot of this comes down to the legacy of certain spread offenses in college that encourage QB running and option plays over pocket passing. Unfortunately NFL pockets collapse much quicker and some of the linebackers can run just as quickly as guys like Kaepernick.
Christian Ponder: Sold! Excellent footwork, passing and vision. I like Ponder a lot. I think he's slipped quietly under a lot of radars thanks to the Newton/Gabbert/Mallett trifecta of hype. Ponder will probably slip out of the first round, providing someone with a value pick later on.
Ricky Stanzi: My favourite. He was ok at the combine, but on film Stanzi looks fantastic. The way this kid drops passes into tight windows over his receivers shoulders is something special to behold. Stanzi might drop right down, maybe even to the fifth round. I'd happily use a first on this kid (I believe in trusting your instincts) but given that he's not highly sought after at the minute, you could hold till the second at least and still pick up the best prospect in this years Qb class (in my opinion).
Andy Dalton: At the combine, he barely put a foot wrong, but I'm not completely sold on Dalton. Partly that's because of a chronic shortage of film for this kid, but even the stuff I've seen throws up some question marks. In general though Dalton should do fine. He might take a little more time than some of the others, but he'll get there. Should prove to be a safe pick outside of the top 44.
Jeff Van Camp: Will likely still be there when the sixth and possibly seventh round comes about. At that price he'd be a complete bargain. I could happily take Van Camp with a late first rounder, though obviously there is no need. He'll slip. But teams could be looking back on this kid in years gone by and kicking themselves for passing him up.
Accuracy? Check. Arm Strength? Check. Vision? Check. Cool in the pocket? Check.
Watching Van Camp, the most obvious feature was the total lack of decent protection from his O-line and running backs. Yet he stayed in the pocket, braved it out, and made some great throws under severe pressure. Can't speak highly enough of Van Camp.
Kellen Moore: Nobody is talking about Kellen Moore. He'll probably still be there when the last name is called on the final day of the draft. Which is a shame. People are looking at Moore as a backup, as an undrafted rookie that might fill a roster spot for the future.
Honestly? I'd take Moore over Gabbert, Newton, Kaepernick or Locker in a heartbeat. Just like that. The kid has a lot of talent as a pure passer, but it would appear being a QB at Boise State isn't enough to draw the scouts attention. Shame. Damn shame.
Mike Hartline: QB for the Kentucky Wildcats in case you were wondering. An arrest for alcohol intoxication and disorderly conduct could have scuppered any chance of a career before it potentially begins. Which is unfortunate.
I remember watching Hartline for the first time. I was actually looking at Randall Cobb, when Hartline caught the eye. He has great anticipation. It's almost like he's watched the game already and now he's just going back to exploit openings. I hope Hartline gets a shot because he has untapped talent.
Of the quarterbacks then, who will make my rookie watchlist? Well, nothing is set in stone yet. There is still plenty of time to do more work and change my mind, but I see these guys making it at the minute:
- Christian Ponder,
- Ricky Stanzi,
- Jeff Van Camp,
- Kellen Moore,
- Mike Hartline,
- Ryan Mallett (for now)
- Andy Dalton (for now)
I'll probably be concentrating on the world of running backs next me thinks. I'll report back when I've gone through the lot. I'm probably half way through the list of players that I'm interested in.
Also I'm working on a piece now, in little chunks when I have the time, about how as an outsider looking I think Football can tell us a lot about America as a whole. Stay tuned.
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