Passing lanes and Blaine Gabbert.

So I'd had a fun week last week (kind of) and I needed to atone for my behaviour with a bit of self inflicted punishment, which explains why I was watching videos on NFL.com.

One video that caught my eye in particular was this one, breaking down some of Matthew Staffords interceptions from the game against the Bears. One play really stood out for me because it gives me an opportunity to take a look at something that a lot of people forget about when we wonder "why didn't the quarterback throw the ball to xyz across the middle etc?"

The answers are many to that kind of question, but one important reason often has to do with throwing lanes. Just so we're all on the same page, we're talking about the path from the quarterback to the receiver, along which the ball will have to travel.

There are basically two things that can obstruct a throwing lane. One is a defensive player, the other is an offensive lineman. How much of an obstruction certain players cause depends on the throw being made. A deep bomb on a 40 yard fade pass has to be lofted so high and with such an arc just to get it down the field that throwing lanes are seldom a concern.

But as the pass becomes progressively more flat in nature, we're talking shorter passes often between 5-15 yards from the line of scrimmage, suddenly the freedom of the throwing lane from obstructions becomes a big issue. I want to show you a screen capture taken from that video to illustrate my point. I haven't edited this or done anything to the picture;

The presenter Brian Baldinger was talking about Stafford looking across the middle and seeing his tight end covered. Well I disagree. For me, the tight end is open there, at least by the standards of the NFL. A quarterback at this level needs to be able to fit the ball into just that kind of window, right into his gut in order to help the receiver to protect himself.

The problem is not the coverage though, it's the center. You should be able to seem him under that vision graphic. The problem is if Stafford throws the ball to the middle now, he'll likely hit the center in the back and have the pass deflected. I think that's why Stafford went wide and got picked off.

It's a good question though; how many of us think about things like passing lanes on a regular bases. I'd be interested to know just how many defensive coordinators have a package in their play book whereby the defensive linemen are taught to attack the offensive line face to face, filling the passing lanes with their hands, while other defenders drop off and fill the remaining passing lanes in coverage.

Below I've put up a hypothetical example;

As you can see the linebackers are in a position to interrupt most of the passing lanes, while the rushing defenders fight through the linemen instead of going around them, pushing them back into their own quarterback while being ready to jump and get their hands up.

It's not something I could see a team doing more than just a few plays per game, but I think it's an interesting thought exercise and I think it's a good reminder for offensive coaches to think about passing lanes and not just passing routes when working with quarterbacks.

The other thing I quickly wanted to harp on, and this relates to quarterbacks, is Blaine Gabbert. I stumbled across this ProFootballTalk.com article the other day that had this interesting line in it; "The rookie has zero pocket presence. He feels pressure when it’s not there and takes too long to make decisions"

My response to this would be; no shit.

How long ago did I say that? This long ago.

"Gabbert will probably collapse in the face of pressure in the NFL. Very rarely did I see him stand in the pocket and let routes develop down field. Everything was coming out of his hands as quick as a flash. On the few occasions that he did try and hold the ball, he almost immediately bailed out of the pocket and ran for his life, even if it was just a three man rush.

He just seems to have zero experience of standing up to a proper rush...

...The people then that I blame are the people putting Gabbert up there on the pedestal as the number one QB in the 2011 draft class, because I don't think he's anything near that....

...But to tout him as a franchise QB at all, let alone a day one franchise kid, is a big mistake in my opinion."

This is what has been frustrating me so much lately. Think of all the TV analysts, the draft experts, the NFL scouts who were tipping off the TV guys. Not once did anyone talk about this stuff, they loved Gabbert. Now all of a sudden everyone is an expert in picking out his faults having watched a significant amount of him in the NFL.

I just don't get it. They were watching the same film I was. In fact that's wrong, they had access to way more film from way more angles than I could ever dream about, and still missed it. It's all there. Just go back and watch any Missouri game. It's not hard to spot, especially now you know what you're looking for.

And I guess all this boils down to frustration, due primarily to envy I guess. I go to bed knowing that somewhere out there a whole bunch of scouts, TV people etc are all earning fairly big money for their opinions on players, and they can't even pick up a simple thing like this Gabbert situation.

It just annoys me and I enjoy venting. So there.

Now in all the rushing about this week I didn't get the chance to recap my picks from week 12 but I was 13-3 for the week so I'm pretty happy with that, and I'm now 113-67 for the season. For tomorrow nights game I will take... the Seahawks. Because the Eagles don't stop the run all that well and the Seahawks are kind of leaning that way lately. Should be a really good game though.

Why I don't like Blaine Gabbert

Before you wonder, no, I haven't skipped the Rams, the NFC North and East and gone straight to the Jaguars. I just want to clarify a point about why I don't like Blaine Gabbert despite his impressive college numbers and the fact that every NFL analyst on the planet has been creaming their pants over Gabbert.

There are two main reasons I don't like him, one of which will help lead into the other;

1) I sat down with a pencil and paper (remember those lead things from 20th Century?) and took notes while watching a Missouri game. I counted about 59 passes (I think one might have been called back for a penalty, didn't pay enough attention). Of the 59 passes I have, three were screen plays, two were chuck aways, and critically for this segment, forty-one were passes that travelled equal to or less than 10 yards past the line scrimmage. Thirteen went 10+ yards.

That means that despite his impressive passing numbers on paper for that game, Gabbert only threw about 20% of his passes anything more than a handful of "air" yards. Of those 13 passes only seven were completed. That for me is an issue. I accept it was only one game, but it is a reasonably fair representation of the offense Gabbert played in.

Small ball, is the word I would use. Of the 41 passes that travelled less than ten yards, 29 were completed and they took the form of a collection of quick outs and sometimes drag routes across the field. All in all a very limited range of passes and nothing that was particularly taxing. Compare with the types of throws asked of guys like Mallet, Enderle and Stanzi in college, which offer a much better approximation of what they'll see in the NFL.

I just don't trust Gabbert to convert very well. The range of passes he has been asked to throw in college compares poorly with what the Jaguars will ask of him. I haven't seen any of the dig routes for example that teams in the NFL like to make plenty of use of. No post-corner routes. And very little in the way of fades.

I just don't see how Gabbert can be considered a franchise QB at the NFL level? It'll take all the franchises resources just to teach him the bloody offense. His accuracy down the field is highly questionable. and the plethora of short routes that he was asked to throw in college lead me to the next point.

2) Gabbert will probably collapse in the face of pressure in the NFL. Very rarely did I see him stand in the pocket and let routes develop down field. Everything was coming out of his hands as quick as a flash. On the few occasions that he did try and hold the ball, he almost immediately bailed out of the pocket and ran for his life, even if it was just a three man rush.

He just seems to have zero experience of standing up to a proper rush. The fact that Missouri spent so much time in 5 wide sets doesn't help. He's used to having the defense clearly laid out for him where he can make easy reads and easy choices.

Do I blame Gabbert for this? No. His coaches maybe? No, their job (what the colleges pay them big bucks for) is to win college games, not serve as a player factory for the Pro's.

The people then that I blame are the people putting Gabbert up there on the pedestal as the number one QB in the 2011 draft class, because I don't think he's anything near that. With time he can improve and get used to the way the big leagues work. He might even carve out a career for himself, in whatever shape or form that may be.

But to tout him as a franchise QB at all, let alone a day one franchise kid, is a big mistake in my opinion.

P.S. Rams draft post will probably touchdown (see what I did there?) on Saturday.
P.P.S. See the labels at the bottom. Just above that is a little "f" icon. Click it. Trust me it'll make your day.

A 2011 Hail Mary

Well, I've finished looking at the Quarterbacks ahead of the 2011 draft (if there is one). There is always the chance I'll come back to this, especially given the potential for a work stoppage giving me more time for further review. At the very least I'm happy for now that I know enough about most of them. So let's begin. Blaine Gabbert: If I had a ten foot barge pole, I wouldn't touch Blaine Gabbert with it. In fact, if you gave me your ten foot barge pole, I wouldn't even touch him with that. And it has nothing to do with poor hygiene. It has everything to do with the fact that he looks terrible on film. I watched one game where he faced a three man rush on a regular basis, and he was bailing out of the pocket before those three were even close. In the NFL, staring down the face of a high speed blitz, I can see Gabbert collapsing like a wet house of cards. I just wouldn't go near him. Cam Newton: I hate Cam Newton already and he hasn't even entered the league yet. I've never known someone to receive so much hype, while showing such a lack of transferable talent. He runs quickly, I get that. He cuts with an insane level of agility. As a wide receiver or running back, Newton could probably have a reasonable shout providing he could learn to run routes. But as a Quarterback he looks doomed to end as a bust. I don't have enough fingers and toes to count the amount of times I saw him under throw receivers who were open down the field. He just seems to lack any demonstrable consistency or skill throwing into tight windows that will transfer to the NFL. He'll either tear the league to pieces with his feet, or they'll tear him to pieces in the pocket. Ryan Mallett: I'm still undecided on Mallett. Apparently he's an asshole of the highest order. There are question marks over possible drug use. All in all, a lot of things that could seriously impact his career, and they're all things I can't really do anything to assess. On the field, he's fine. I have zero questions about his level of playing ability. But a lack of hard work and leadership, if these things are indeed true, could seriously effect his ability to blend in with a team. I'm just not sure right now. Jake Locker: Much the same as Newton, I worry about Locker as a passer. I'm not convinced. I certainly wouldn't use a first rounder on him. He can run and sometimes he can throw great, but consistency from the pocket? I'm just not happy with Locker. I can see him being a Jimmy Clausen type. Colin Kaepernick: This is a running theme, but I'm not sold on Kaepernick as a passer. A lot of this comes down to the legacy of certain spread offenses in college that encourage QB running and option plays over pocket passing. Unfortunately NFL pockets collapse much quicker and some of the linebackers can run just as quickly as guys like Kaepernick. Christian Ponder: Sold! Excellent footwork, passing and vision. I like Ponder a lot. I think he's slipped quietly under a lot of radars thanks to the Newton/Gabbert/Mallett trifecta of hype. Ponder will probably slip out of the first round, providing someone with a value pick later on. Ricky Stanzi: My favourite. He was ok at the combine, but on film Stanzi looks fantastic. The way this kid drops passes into tight windows over his receivers shoulders is something special to behold. Stanzi might drop right down, maybe even to the fifth round. I'd happily use a first on this kid (I believe in trusting your instincts) but given that he's not highly sought after at the minute, you could hold till the second at least and still pick up the best prospect in this years Qb class (in my opinion). Andy Dalton: At the combine, he barely put a foot wrong, but I'm not completely sold on Dalton. Partly that's because of a chronic shortage of film for this kid, but even the stuff I've seen throws up some question marks. In general though Dalton should do fine. He might take a little more time than some of the others, but he'll get there. Should prove to be a safe pick outside of the top 44. Jeff Van Camp: Will likely still be there when the sixth and possibly seventh round comes about. At that price he'd be a complete bargain. I could happily take Van Camp with a late first rounder, though obviously there is no need. He'll slip. But teams could be looking back on this kid in years gone by and kicking themselves for passing him up. Accuracy? Check. Arm Strength? Check. Vision? Check. Cool in the pocket? Check. Watching Van Camp, the most obvious feature was the total lack of decent protection from his O-line and running backs. Yet he stayed in the pocket, braved it out, and made some great throws under severe pressure. Can't speak highly enough of Van Camp. Kellen Moore: Nobody is talking about Kellen Moore. He'll probably still be there when the last name is called on the final day of the draft. Which is a shame. People are looking at Moore as a backup, as an undrafted rookie that might fill a roster spot for the future. Honestly? I'd take Moore over Gabbert, Newton, Kaepernick or Locker in a heartbeat. Just like that. The kid has a lot of talent as a pure passer, but it would appear being a QB at Boise State isn't enough to draw the scouts attention. Shame. Damn shame. Mike Hartline: QB for the Kentucky Wildcats in case you were wondering. An arrest for alcohol intoxication and disorderly conduct could have scuppered any chance of a career before it potentially begins. Which is unfortunate. I remember watching Hartline for the first time. I was actually looking at Randall Cobb, when Hartline caught the eye. He has great anticipation. It's almost like he's watched the game already and now he's just going back to exploit openings. I hope Hartline gets a shot because he has untapped talent. Of the quarterbacks then, who will make my rookie watchlist? Well, nothing is set in stone yet. There is still plenty of time to do more work and change my mind, but I see these guys making it at the minute: - Christian Ponder, - Ricky Stanzi, - Jeff Van Camp, - Kellen Moore, - Mike Hartline, - Ryan Mallett (for now) - Andy Dalton (for now) I'll probably be concentrating on the world of running backs next me thinks. I'll report back when I've gone through the lot. I'm probably half way through the list of players that I'm interested in. Also I'm working on a piece now, in little chunks when I have the time, about how as an outsider looking I think Football can tell us a lot about America as a whole. Stay tuned.