One of these days I'll actually post my article about the three step drop. By the time I do, the damn play will have been banned from football, along with all forms of contact in football.
Anyway, the reason for the delay is because I want to pick up a couple of the main points coming out of the weekends games and I guess I might generally just run down some of the games, as and when things come to mind of interest. There are two main issues that I want to address though.
The first is to do with the Eagles and their defensive coordinator position currently held by Juan Castillo, the former offensive line coach. Basically with Steve Spagnuolo of the Rams likely to get the chop at the end of the season, many people are lining him up to replace Castillo as the Eagles Defensive coordinator for next year.
And I simply want to ask; why? In fact, let me ask you another question, just out of interest; Which team leads the NFL in sacks right now?
Answer; the Philadelphia Eagles.
See while everyone has been busy lately criticising Castillo for his schemes, people seem to have over looked the fact that the Eagles are actually one of the better defenses out there. They're not perfect, not by any means, but they're pretty good. They'll need some tweaking in the off season; getting the coverages sorted out to make the best use of the available talent, as well as sitting down with that young linebacker corps and watching some film to explain to them better about run fits etc. But otherwise that's not a bad defense and it can only get better in the off season with the right work.
The problem with the Eagles is not their defense. The problem with the Eagles is their offense.
Simply put, it sucks. And has sucked for most of 2011. The Eagles are practically in a league of their own when it comes to getting down into the red zone and then not producing a score. They are brilliant for 80 yards as they rip great chunks out of people in the open field, then they clam up (and stink it up) in those last 20 yards.
Juan Castillo is not the man to blame for the Eagles woes, it's Andy Reid. He's the guy that has at his disposal LeSean McCoy, Ronnine Brown, Mike Vick, Vince Young, DeSean Jackson, Riley Cooper, Jeremy Maclin, Jason Avant, Brent Celek and Jason Peters, to name just a few. That's an offense that a heck of a lot of teams in the NFL would kill for. And yet that is also an offense that has struggled to put points on the board when it mattered most, not to mention the hoard of turnovers they've given up.
All this finger waving at Castillo is pure bullshit. It's a distraction from the real issue here, which is that Andy Reid is struggling to get to his side of the "Dream Team" working the way it should. While the Panthers and Broncos have adjusted their respective offenses to accommodate the running abilities of their quarterbacks, what have the Eagles done? What adjustments have they made to get the most out of Vick?
And what about LeSean McCoy? McCoy is the second leading rusher in the league by yards. He leads the league in touchdowns with 17, which is three more than Cam Newton and five more than the closest running back (Marshawn Lynch). He leads the league in runs of 20+ yards with 14. And perhaps most tellingly, he leads the league in rushes for a first down, with 84, which is sixteen more than the next player on the list, Maurice Jones-Drew.
Yet he only averages 18 carries a game?
You have without doubt one of the most explosive players in the entire NFL on your team, yet you feed him the ball less than the 49ers feed Gore, or the Falcons feed Michael Turner. An especially odd decision given how much trouble the Eagles have had in the red zone.
All this means that I can't take criticism and talk of Juan Castillo being fired seriously. I don't mean that he wont get fired, just that I don't think he should. Considering this is his first season as a defensive coordinator I think he's done really well so far and again, I think an off season of work and preparation by the Eagles could yield some great results.
The question is whether the Eagles offense can lift its game next season and start to actually make that defensive work count for something. The Eagles have the personnel to make a Super Bowl run, I think everyone agrees on that. But until Andy Reid stops making excuses - and people stop making excuses for Andy Reid - then this same old sorry, tired Eagles saga will just repeat itself again season after season.
Now I'm going to take an interlude in my ramblings before I get to the second major issue I wanted to address, and talk about the Panthers. Mainly to give them a lot of credit for their 48-16 win against the Buccaneers.
All thoughts about the Buccaneers horrible run defense aside, I was impressed by the Panthers actually making use of running backs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, who I've long pronounced to be the best running back tandem in the NFL. Long time readers will be aware that this has been a hobby horse of mine for a while, bemoaning the John Fox/Jake Delhomme era because of the absolute abandonment of an otherwise excellent running game.
It was nice then to see it revived on Saturday. It also points to what is - in my opinion - one of the funniest things about the Cam Newton story. When Cam throws the ball a lot he invariably racks up the yards, rushes for a score, does his stupid Superman celebration... and then the Panthers still end up losing the game. On the other hand when the Panthers manage the game better and lean on their rushing attack, they often end up winning, and doing so comfortably.
C'est la vie, as they often say in France (along with "We Surrender!!").
I was also excited about the 49ers win over the Seahawks, although there was a slight downer in that they gave up their first rushing touchdown of the season. Naturally people have been hailing Jim Harbaugh again, as they have been all season long, but forgive me if I don't hang a poster of the guy on the wall just yet.
See I'm a 49ers fan and as a result I've endured misery for years now. I'm delighted that finally the 49ers are winning games and going back to the playoffs, even doing so in style. However I don't see what Jim Harbaugh has to do with it. Harbaugh is an offensive coach, not a defensive coach. And this 49ers offense has been almost as bad as those that preceded it. Alright, so maybe they haven't turned the ball over as much this year, and maybe there hasn't been as many sacks this year, but fundamentally the offense still sucks balls.
On the other hand I still don't hear anyone talking about Vic Fangio. Without looking at Wikipedia, can you even tell me who Vic Fangio is? If you didn't know already then you've probably guessed that Fangio is the defensive coordinator of the 49ers. It's this man and his defensive staff who should be getting the plaudits, along with whoever the specific people were that drafted or approved the signing of Justin Smith, Aldon Smith, Issac Sopoaga, Ray McDonald, Navorro Bowman, Ahmad Brooks, Patrick Willis, Parys Haralson, Chris Culliver and Carlos Rogers, to name just a few.
I don't blame Harbaugh, there's not really a lot he can do about it. He doesn't write the articles in the press or force people to talk about him on sports radio. I just think it's unfair that he's getting all the credit for something that essentially happens on the opposite side of the ball. That's not to say that he doesn't have some influence on it - I'd be shocked if he didn't - but most of the donkey work throughout the year will have been done by Fangio and his staff, work for which they are not getting their dues.
Vic, in the incredibly unlikely event that you're reading this, I thank you and your staff on behalf of 49ers fans everywhere.
Also congratulations to Drew Brees who has now surpassed Dan Marino for the single season passing yardage record. I'm undecided yet as to whether this should be considered more or less of an achievement than when Marino set the record. Not that it really matters that much, either way it's still a heck of a thing to have done.
The question is whether or not you think that it's easier to break the record now because teams throw the ball more than they did back then, or whether you think that it's precisely because teams throw it more now - which means that defenses are built to stop the pass - that makes Brees's achievement superior. An interesting debate to have over a pint I think.
One quarterback who wasn't setting any records though was Tim Tebow. I'd be gutted to see Tebow and the Broncos stumble at such a late stage, but it was inevitable that he was going to have a shitty game at one point. No fourth quarter heroics this time. Just four fourth quarter picks.
It should be noted that once again the Broncos receivers continued to demonstrate why there will be little demand for their services in the offseason, dropping passes like the ball was smeared in shit. Of course as always that doesn't fit the main press narrative, so we very rarely get even an acknowledgement of that fact. The Broncos defense also struggled for a change, which means the Broncos season now comes down to the final game against the Chiefs; win and they're in the playoffs. Or they can lose, and if the Chargers beat the Raiders then they're still in, but that's playing it risky.
Right, finally back on track and the other thing that I originally wanted to talk about, which was Joe Webb and the Vikings.
One play after Adrian Peterson suffered a sick looking injury to his knee (he could be doubtful even for week one of the 2012 season), quarterback Christian Ponder suffered a concussion and was eventually yanked from the game. In his place came Joe Webb. Webb went on to throw for two touchdowns and run in another with his feet. After the game the press went wild. Everywhere you look now, people are calling for Joe Webb to be the starter next year. My advice? Just hold the fuck up a second. Let's just recap Webb's numbers from Saturday's game shall we?
4/5 for 84 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Yes, four of five. He threw five passes and now all of a sudden people are putting him up on a pedestal and talking about him like he's the greatest thing to happen to the Vikings since they dumped Brad Childress. All this despite the various warning signs around the league about this kind of thing, namely Caleb Haine, Matt Cassel and Kevin Kolb.
Those are three names that should remind people that sometimes things aren't always what they seem. Yes, sometimes players have great games, or at least very good games. But one or two good games does not suddenly anoint someone with starting quarterback traits. It's a good place to begin, but long term success is not guaranteed.
Now don't get me wrong, Webb is a good player and has done well in every appearance he's had off the bench and in pres-season in Minnesota. But people are talking about him like he's the instant answer to all of Minnesota's many woes, and I'm just a little amazed at how quickly people are prepared to give up on Ponder, a first round pick who has done pretty well in his first few showings.
There is still one game left this year and I suspect the Vikings will be unlikely to throw Ponder back into the fray just for that single meaningless game. That means Webb could get the chance to start an actual regular season game for a change. I'm willing to bet that it may not quite be the touchdown bonanza that people think it will, depending on what kind of team the Bears put out.
I'll just finish by reminding people that in his last five starts as quarterback (not including this week), Ponder has lead the Vikings offense to score an average of 23 points per game. When Ponder went down injured this week the game was tied at 10-10, so it wasn't like Joe Webb came on and turned around a lost game either. In an age of instant gratification I'm beginning to worry that everyone involved in the football world has lost their sense of perspective.
So that's Week 16 in the books. Pick wise I came in at 13-3 for week 16, taking my season tally to 159-84, which I've just discovered is better than any of the analysts at FoxSports.com (both for the week and the season) and only two behind Accuscore and Pigskin Pick'em (both of whom I beat for the week) with one garbage week left to go.
Tomorrow I expect to put up my article on the three step drop. Slightly ironic that a post about the quick passing game has taken so long to be released.
Showing posts with label Christian Ponder. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Christian Ponder. Show all posts
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
2011 NFL Draft: Minnesota Vikings
So. The Minnesota Vikings huh? What happened to those guys. One minute they were one or two plays away from winning the NFC Championship. Then suddenly they chucked it all down the drain. Then they came back next year and absolutely stunk the place out.
Well, that's perhaps being a little harsh and indeed injuries played their part, but the hope that the Vikings might build on a very successful 2009 season turned out to be just that; hope. Poor, misguided hope. And with the vampire that is Brett Favre finally back in his coffin, at least for now, the Vikings had a tough decision to make headed into 2011. Stick with Tavaris Jackson? Or go fishing for the next big thing?
They went fishing.
In round one of the draft, with the 12th overall pick (their first of ten) the Minnesota Vikings select... Christian Ponder, QB, Florida State!
About an hour or so after the first round had finished I thought I heard the wind picking up. It turns out this was just the arrival of the sound of the collective people of the state of Minnesota booing the Christian Ponder pick.
At the time I thought it was harsh. The Vikings needed a QB and that's what they got. Ponder was pretty good I thought. Why boo that pick? Then gradually it occurred to me that maybe people weren't necessarily against Ponder, it was just that he was taken early.
No, turns out everyone hates Ponder.
But if I thought that was harsh at the time, I'm even more critical of Vikings fans for booing now. Because (I know) the more I watch Ponder, the more I'm inclined to believe he should have been considered a legitimate first round talent from pre-draft, and that there is even a significant case that he should have been number one overall.
See, for me there are four main "pro ready" quarterbacks from the 2011 draft; Ryan Mallett, Christian Ponder, Ricky Stanzi and Nathan Enderle. I had perhaps Mallett or Stanzi pegged first. It has a tendency to shift depending on whose film you watched last. Well, now I'm getting ready to throw some serious weight behind Ponder.
Here's why;
- Footwork. Is generally very, very good, with a fluidity and balance that you would expect from a high level QB. At times he can lack the required "push" from under center, that is to say that he doesn't drive back hard and fast enough sometimes. But that's not a common issue and it's something he'll soon learn to fix when he starts running away from guys like Ndamukong Suh.
- Accuracy. Is excellent. Yes, he did throw a lot of short passes and screens in college. For the record I want to point out that I'm not talking about completion percentage, which is a terrible way to measure Quarterbacks. I'm talking about sitting there and actually watching whereabouts the ball goes when he throws it. Naturally this falls off a little at deep ranges, but newsflash, so does Peyton Mannings.
In general though his throwing is very precise, right into the receivers hands with enough lead when necessary. He can throw well under pressure and does push the ball down the field much more than someone like Blaine Gabbert.
Those for me are two really key things. When you tie in his lack of off field issues and the fact that the system he played in at Florida State had a number of "pro style" aspects to it, it really does set Ponder up perhaps better than any other QB in this draft to be a number one overall pick.
As it stands he went 12th, but I personally think time is going to prove that the Carolina Panthers were incredibly dumb for taking Newton instead of this kid. Which is good, because I hate the Panthers.
On to round two and the Vikings went with tight end Kyle Rudolph from Notre Dame. Who I hate with a passion. Well, I say I hate him but that's not strictly true. I hate what Rudolph has been made out to be by the media e.g. the number one tight end overall in this years draft.
That's rubbish in my opinion. Utter junk. If Rudolph is the top tight end in the 2011 draft then when might as well give up trying to analyse players and instead just draw names out of a hat at random. Not only did Rudolph miss three games in his sophomore season through injury, but he then ended up playing just six games in 2010 due to a hamstring injury.
So how does he stack up as a receiver? Not bad, but not really number one tight end quality. He probably drops passes at a 1:4 ratio with catches, often dropping nice easy throws. After further study, his route running is not exactly what you would call polished either. Yes, he did make some nice catches for good yards, but his ability to get additional yards after the catch is very questionable.
Simply put, there are better tight ends in this years draft; Lance Kendricks, Colin Cochart and Daniel Hardy for example.
Moving on then and the Vikings skip round three before landing again in round four with another Christian, (not Tim Tebow but) Christian Ballard, defensive linemen, Iowa. I say defensive linemen because he moved around a bit in college, switching from tackle to end on a per play basis. It is expected the Vikings will use him at end.
Now Ballard is an interesting little cookie for many reasons. Firstly, he was expected to go much higher but dropped due to allegedly testing positive for marijuana at the combine. Then comes the question of on field talent and it's for this reason that Ballard is intriguing to me in particular.
I have said recently that going back and studying each of these players in turn is causing me to question severely some of the original analysis I made of them. So far I've put this down largely to the time pressure that existed to get all of my reports out before the draft, which was compounded by my own stupidity when I believed the draft was being held a week before it actually was.
As a result I kind of raced through a lot of the studies, often not watching enough film and not taking the time to sit down and really look at each player. Ballard is a great example of this (along with Iowa team mate Adrian Clayborn). I had him pegged pre-draft as being a very good linemen and I'm semi willing to stand by that claim.
Semi willing. At times, Ballard shows great talent. At times he uses a strong push upfield and a good swim or rip move to beat an offensive tackle and get into the backfield. Sometimes he will be involved in a stunt or twist with the defensive linemen next to him and will use his speed and hustle to get into the backfield again. Sometimes he gets kicked inside as a tackle where he shows the ability to hold off blockers and make the run stop.
But much more common is for Ballard to play conservatively at the end position, which is a serious issue when you're a defensive end in a 4-3. Predominantly those ends are required to get after the quarterback, preferably now rather than later.
Ballard's normal approach though is to run right at the right tackle, put his hands in the guys chest and slowly drive him back, with varying degrees of success. That, to me at least, basically seems to be the result of trying to put a man with the mentality of a defensive tackle at defensive end. It's not that he can't play end, he just gets stuck in the run-stopping-first mindset of a tackle.
So how will he fare with the Vikings? I'm still going to give him a thumbs up and say he'll be good. Why? Because (I know) if they decide to play him inside as a tackle he'll be right at home and should just straight up be successful in that regard. If they move him to end and he tries playing the way he did in college he will get a right bollocking from his position coach and be told to start getting after the QB.
That should snap him out of his "tackle funk" and get him using his size, speed and technique to do what he really does best and that's to make offensive linemen look silly. I think he can do it. I've seen him do it when he plays the end position properly. With additional coaching he could be just the ticket that the Vikings are looking for to replace a possibly outgoing Ray Edwards.
Round five next and just the one pick here, Brandon Burton, cornerback, Utah. Burton is another one of these "now I've had a proper second look" type guys. Initially I came away very impressed by him, but now I think you have to split it into a some good, some bad, type dynamic.
The good is that he; closes quickly once the ball is in the air, he actually turns and looks for the ball, he's not afraid to get stuck in (he's a knee-capper) and generally he plays with good positioning deep down the field.
The bad is that he; doesn't tackle properly which can be an issue at times, he gets bowled over in the running game laughably easily, he struggles in press coverage (playing close to the receiver at the snap) and he often gives receivers too much of a cushion when he plays off the receiver.
Given the nature of the Vikings defense, a predominantly zone style scheme that won't really let Burton play so deep and so far off his man, I can see problems. I just think this is a case of the players skill set not meshing all that well with the teams system, as opposed to him being a bad corner per se.
Right, round six now and the Vikings have four picks, three of them in the top seven. The first was offensive tackle DeMarcus Love, Arkansas. Not a huge amount to say about Love. Pass blocking is ok, run blocking is a little suspect. He has a tendency to pull his arms back to "wind up" and then let rip with a punch. As you can probably imagine this leads to him missing a lot and ending up flat on his face. Footwork is also highly suspect at times.
Two picks after Love was safety Mistral Raymond from South Florida. Having had a good look at him, all I can say is "meh". He's not Mike Person bad, but he's no Troy Polamalu either. Seems to lack any real range as a deep safety and isn't really strong enough to play strong safety. A training camp victim probably.
Two picks after Raymond came Brandon Fusco, center, Slippery Rock. And I can honestly say, your guess is as good as mine. Haven't seen a second. He did well in the drills at the combine and that's about all I can tell you for certain.
Lastly in the sixth round was compensatory selection Ross Homan, linebacker, Ohio State. Homan falls into a distinct group of prospects whom I watch now, then look at my previous notes, then check to make sure I'm watching the right team, then check my notes again, then watch again, then finally hold my hands up and just say "fuck it".
I don't know what I was talking about when I said Homan "reacts quickly to what he sees". I swear in this case I must have just genuinely got him confused with someone else, because Homan's film can best be described with the word "ass". As in "your ass just got blocked again, idiot". There really is nothing more to say. He's epically non-existent, if that makes any sense. Again, I look at Homan, then think about Anthony Gaitor drafted in the 7th by Tampa and say to myself "How? How do you fuck up your draft like that?".
Maybe Minnesota will have more luck in the Seventh round, with two more picks to go?
Not with the first of those unfortunately, defensive end D'Aundre Reed from Arizona. Simply put, Reed automatically reacts to a tackle putting his hands on him by taking a step back and to the outside. You pretty much can't do anything worse than that as a defensive end in that situation.
If you watch guys like Reed's new team mate Jared Allen, they make contact with the offensive tackle and then use their hands to try and work their way around the top to get to the quarterback. It's tough, and when you break the numbers down a DE might get 60 snaps to get after the QB and yet only get to him once or twice in a game, but that's just how it is.
Some other players have different techniques like Dwight Freeney and his spin move etc, but ultimately defensive end is one of those positions where you work your butt off for the entire game for maybe one or two plays worth of reward. But those plays can often be critical in shutting down a drive in a tight game.
I just can't see Reed doing it. He shows no real natural talent for rushing the quarterback and that is quite a serious issue to have when you play the position he does.
Finally then it comes down to West Texas A&M wide receiver Stephen Burton. And the bad news (or maybe good news because now I can now go to bed) is that I don't have a clue about Burton. Not seen a single snap I'm afraid.
So in conclusion, how was the Vikings draft? I think a lot of it rests on Christian Ponder and that's why I'm inclined to give Minnesota a lot of credit because they went with the guy they felt comfortable with, rolled the dice and I think it's going to payoff.
I like Ponder and I think he might be able to inject some much needed youth into their QB situation, along with a healthy dose of talent. I can see him being good enough for them to build around over the coming years. Of course, they already have Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin, Sidney Rice etc, so maybe that offense is ready to bounce back as soon as this year?
On defense I like the Christian Ballard pick. As a 4-3 defense they need to stay young, fresh and talented at the defensive end spot which is what I think they've achieved with this pick. As for the rest of those guys...
On balance this probably wasn't Minnesota's greatest draft. Ponder and Ballard may well go on to be great players but you have to think that with no less than ten choices the Vikings could have come up with something better. Those other eight picks are more than a team normally gets pre-trades/compensatory, and I think they wasted a fantastic opportunity to get younger and better at a lot of spots.
That's the NFC North done with then. Next it's the NFC East, starting with D for the team everyone loves to hate; the Dallas Cowboys.
Well, that's perhaps being a little harsh and indeed injuries played their part, but the hope that the Vikings might build on a very successful 2009 season turned out to be just that; hope. Poor, misguided hope. And with the vampire that is Brett Favre finally back in his coffin, at least for now, the Vikings had a tough decision to make headed into 2011. Stick with Tavaris Jackson? Or go fishing for the next big thing?
They went fishing.
In round one of the draft, with the 12th overall pick (their first of ten) the Minnesota Vikings select... Christian Ponder, QB, Florida State!
About an hour or so after the first round had finished I thought I heard the wind picking up. It turns out this was just the arrival of the sound of the collective people of the state of Minnesota booing the Christian Ponder pick.
At the time I thought it was harsh. The Vikings needed a QB and that's what they got. Ponder was pretty good I thought. Why boo that pick? Then gradually it occurred to me that maybe people weren't necessarily against Ponder, it was just that he was taken early.
No, turns out everyone hates Ponder.
But if I thought that was harsh at the time, I'm even more critical of Vikings fans for booing now. Because (I know) the more I watch Ponder, the more I'm inclined to believe he should have been considered a legitimate first round talent from pre-draft, and that there is even a significant case that he should have been number one overall.
See, for me there are four main "pro ready" quarterbacks from the 2011 draft; Ryan Mallett, Christian Ponder, Ricky Stanzi and Nathan Enderle. I had perhaps Mallett or Stanzi pegged first. It has a tendency to shift depending on whose film you watched last. Well, now I'm getting ready to throw some serious weight behind Ponder.
Here's why;
- Footwork. Is generally very, very good, with a fluidity and balance that you would expect from a high level QB. At times he can lack the required "push" from under center, that is to say that he doesn't drive back hard and fast enough sometimes. But that's not a common issue and it's something he'll soon learn to fix when he starts running away from guys like Ndamukong Suh.
- Accuracy. Is excellent. Yes, he did throw a lot of short passes and screens in college. For the record I want to point out that I'm not talking about completion percentage, which is a terrible way to measure Quarterbacks. I'm talking about sitting there and actually watching whereabouts the ball goes when he throws it. Naturally this falls off a little at deep ranges, but newsflash, so does Peyton Mannings.
In general though his throwing is very precise, right into the receivers hands with enough lead when necessary. He can throw well under pressure and does push the ball down the field much more than someone like Blaine Gabbert.
Those for me are two really key things. When you tie in his lack of off field issues and the fact that the system he played in at Florida State had a number of "pro style" aspects to it, it really does set Ponder up perhaps better than any other QB in this draft to be a number one overall pick.
As it stands he went 12th, but I personally think time is going to prove that the Carolina Panthers were incredibly dumb for taking Newton instead of this kid. Which is good, because I hate the Panthers.
On to round two and the Vikings went with tight end Kyle Rudolph from Notre Dame. Who I hate with a passion. Well, I say I hate him but that's not strictly true. I hate what Rudolph has been made out to be by the media e.g. the number one tight end overall in this years draft.
That's rubbish in my opinion. Utter junk. If Rudolph is the top tight end in the 2011 draft then when might as well give up trying to analyse players and instead just draw names out of a hat at random. Not only did Rudolph miss three games in his sophomore season through injury, but he then ended up playing just six games in 2010 due to a hamstring injury.
So how does he stack up as a receiver? Not bad, but not really number one tight end quality. He probably drops passes at a 1:4 ratio with catches, often dropping nice easy throws. After further study, his route running is not exactly what you would call polished either. Yes, he did make some nice catches for good yards, but his ability to get additional yards after the catch is very questionable.
Simply put, there are better tight ends in this years draft; Lance Kendricks, Colin Cochart and Daniel Hardy for example.
Moving on then and the Vikings skip round three before landing again in round four with another Christian, (not Tim Tebow but) Christian Ballard, defensive linemen, Iowa. I say defensive linemen because he moved around a bit in college, switching from tackle to end on a per play basis. It is expected the Vikings will use him at end.
Now Ballard is an interesting little cookie for many reasons. Firstly, he was expected to go much higher but dropped due to allegedly testing positive for marijuana at the combine. Then comes the question of on field talent and it's for this reason that Ballard is intriguing to me in particular.
I have said recently that going back and studying each of these players in turn is causing me to question severely some of the original analysis I made of them. So far I've put this down largely to the time pressure that existed to get all of my reports out before the draft, which was compounded by my own stupidity when I believed the draft was being held a week before it actually was.
As a result I kind of raced through a lot of the studies, often not watching enough film and not taking the time to sit down and really look at each player. Ballard is a great example of this (along with Iowa team mate Adrian Clayborn). I had him pegged pre-draft as being a very good linemen and I'm semi willing to stand by that claim.
Semi willing. At times, Ballard shows great talent. At times he uses a strong push upfield and a good swim or rip move to beat an offensive tackle and get into the backfield. Sometimes he will be involved in a stunt or twist with the defensive linemen next to him and will use his speed and hustle to get into the backfield again. Sometimes he gets kicked inside as a tackle where he shows the ability to hold off blockers and make the run stop.
But much more common is for Ballard to play conservatively at the end position, which is a serious issue when you're a defensive end in a 4-3. Predominantly those ends are required to get after the quarterback, preferably now rather than later.
Ballard's normal approach though is to run right at the right tackle, put his hands in the guys chest and slowly drive him back, with varying degrees of success. That, to me at least, basically seems to be the result of trying to put a man with the mentality of a defensive tackle at defensive end. It's not that he can't play end, he just gets stuck in the run-stopping-first mindset of a tackle.
So how will he fare with the Vikings? I'm still going to give him a thumbs up and say he'll be good. Why? Because (I know) if they decide to play him inside as a tackle he'll be right at home and should just straight up be successful in that regard. If they move him to end and he tries playing the way he did in college he will get a right bollocking from his position coach and be told to start getting after the QB.
That should snap him out of his "tackle funk" and get him using his size, speed and technique to do what he really does best and that's to make offensive linemen look silly. I think he can do it. I've seen him do it when he plays the end position properly. With additional coaching he could be just the ticket that the Vikings are looking for to replace a possibly outgoing Ray Edwards.
Round five next and just the one pick here, Brandon Burton, cornerback, Utah. Burton is another one of these "now I've had a proper second look" type guys. Initially I came away very impressed by him, but now I think you have to split it into a some good, some bad, type dynamic.
The good is that he; closes quickly once the ball is in the air, he actually turns and looks for the ball, he's not afraid to get stuck in (he's a knee-capper) and generally he plays with good positioning deep down the field.
The bad is that he; doesn't tackle properly which can be an issue at times, he gets bowled over in the running game laughably easily, he struggles in press coverage (playing close to the receiver at the snap) and he often gives receivers too much of a cushion when he plays off the receiver.
Given the nature of the Vikings defense, a predominantly zone style scheme that won't really let Burton play so deep and so far off his man, I can see problems. I just think this is a case of the players skill set not meshing all that well with the teams system, as opposed to him being a bad corner per se.
Right, round six now and the Vikings have four picks, three of them in the top seven. The first was offensive tackle DeMarcus Love, Arkansas. Not a huge amount to say about Love. Pass blocking is ok, run blocking is a little suspect. He has a tendency to pull his arms back to "wind up" and then let rip with a punch. As you can probably imagine this leads to him missing a lot and ending up flat on his face. Footwork is also highly suspect at times.
Two picks after Love was safety Mistral Raymond from South Florida. Having had a good look at him, all I can say is "meh". He's not Mike Person bad, but he's no Troy Polamalu either. Seems to lack any real range as a deep safety and isn't really strong enough to play strong safety. A training camp victim probably.
Two picks after Raymond came Brandon Fusco, center, Slippery Rock. And I can honestly say, your guess is as good as mine. Haven't seen a second. He did well in the drills at the combine and that's about all I can tell you for certain.
Lastly in the sixth round was compensatory selection Ross Homan, linebacker, Ohio State. Homan falls into a distinct group of prospects whom I watch now, then look at my previous notes, then check to make sure I'm watching the right team, then check my notes again, then watch again, then finally hold my hands up and just say "fuck it".
I don't know what I was talking about when I said Homan "reacts quickly to what he sees". I swear in this case I must have just genuinely got him confused with someone else, because Homan's film can best be described with the word "ass". As in "your ass just got blocked again, idiot". There really is nothing more to say. He's epically non-existent, if that makes any sense. Again, I look at Homan, then think about Anthony Gaitor drafted in the 7th by Tampa and say to myself "How? How do you fuck up your draft like that?".
Maybe Minnesota will have more luck in the Seventh round, with two more picks to go?
Not with the first of those unfortunately, defensive end D'Aundre Reed from Arizona. Simply put, Reed automatically reacts to a tackle putting his hands on him by taking a step back and to the outside. You pretty much can't do anything worse than that as a defensive end in that situation.
If you watch guys like Reed's new team mate Jared Allen, they make contact with the offensive tackle and then use their hands to try and work their way around the top to get to the quarterback. It's tough, and when you break the numbers down a DE might get 60 snaps to get after the QB and yet only get to him once or twice in a game, but that's just how it is.
Some other players have different techniques like Dwight Freeney and his spin move etc, but ultimately defensive end is one of those positions where you work your butt off for the entire game for maybe one or two plays worth of reward. But those plays can often be critical in shutting down a drive in a tight game.
I just can't see Reed doing it. He shows no real natural talent for rushing the quarterback and that is quite a serious issue to have when you play the position he does.
Finally then it comes down to West Texas A&M wide receiver Stephen Burton. And the bad news (or maybe good news because now I can now go to bed) is that I don't have a clue about Burton. Not seen a single snap I'm afraid.
So in conclusion, how was the Vikings draft? I think a lot of it rests on Christian Ponder and that's why I'm inclined to give Minnesota a lot of credit because they went with the guy they felt comfortable with, rolled the dice and I think it's going to payoff.
I like Ponder and I think he might be able to inject some much needed youth into their QB situation, along with a healthy dose of talent. I can see him being good enough for them to build around over the coming years. Of course, they already have Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin, Sidney Rice etc, so maybe that offense is ready to bounce back as soon as this year?
On defense I like the Christian Ballard pick. As a 4-3 defense they need to stay young, fresh and talented at the defensive end spot which is what I think they've achieved with this pick. As for the rest of those guys...
On balance this probably wasn't Minnesota's greatest draft. Ponder and Ballard may well go on to be great players but you have to think that with no less than ten choices the Vikings could have come up with something better. Those other eight picks are more than a team normally gets pre-trades/compensatory, and I think they wasted a fantastic opportunity to get younger and better at a lot of spots.
That's the NFC North done with then. Next it's the NFC East, starting with D for the team everyone loves to hate; the Dallas Cowboys.
Monday, March 14, 2011
A 2011 Hail Mary
Well, I've finished looking at the Quarterbacks ahead of the 2011 draft (if there is one). There is always the chance I'll come back to this, especially given the potential for a work stoppage giving me more time for further review. At the very least I'm happy for now that I know enough about most of them. So let's begin.
Blaine Gabbert: If I had a ten foot barge pole, I wouldn't touch Blaine Gabbert with it. In fact, if you gave me your ten foot barge pole, I wouldn't even touch him with that. And it has nothing to do with poor hygiene. It has everything to do with the fact that he looks terrible on film.
I watched one game where he faced a three man rush on a regular basis, and he was bailing out of the pocket before those three were even close. In the NFL, staring down the face of a high speed blitz, I can see Gabbert collapsing like a wet house of cards. I just wouldn't go near him.
Cam Newton: I hate Cam Newton already and he hasn't even entered the league yet. I've never known someone to receive so much hype, while showing such a lack of transferable talent. He runs quickly, I get that. He cuts with an insane level of agility. As a wide receiver or running back, Newton could probably have a reasonable shout providing he could learn to run routes.
But as a Quarterback he looks doomed to end as a bust. I don't have enough fingers and toes to count the amount of times I saw him under throw receivers who were open down the field. He just seems to lack any demonstrable consistency or skill throwing into tight windows that will transfer to the NFL. He'll either tear the league to pieces with his feet, or they'll tear him to pieces in the pocket.
Ryan Mallett: I'm still undecided on Mallett. Apparently he's an asshole of the highest order. There are question marks over possible drug use. All in all, a lot of things that could seriously impact his career, and they're all things I can't really do anything to assess.
On the field, he's fine. I have zero questions about his level of playing ability. But a lack of hard work and leadership, if these things are indeed true, could seriously effect his ability to blend in with a team. I'm just not sure right now.
Jake Locker: Much the same as Newton, I worry about Locker as a passer. I'm not convinced. I certainly wouldn't use a first rounder on him. He can run and sometimes he can throw great, but consistency from the pocket? I'm just not happy with Locker. I can see him being a Jimmy Clausen type.
Colin Kaepernick: This is a running theme, but I'm not sold on Kaepernick as a passer. A lot of this comes down to the legacy of certain spread offenses in college that encourage QB running and option plays over pocket passing. Unfortunately NFL pockets collapse much quicker and some of the linebackers can run just as quickly as guys like Kaepernick.
Christian Ponder: Sold! Excellent footwork, passing and vision. I like Ponder a lot. I think he's slipped quietly under a lot of radars thanks to the Newton/Gabbert/Mallett trifecta of hype. Ponder will probably slip out of the first round, providing someone with a value pick later on.
Ricky Stanzi: My favourite. He was ok at the combine, but on film Stanzi looks fantastic. The way this kid drops passes into tight windows over his receivers shoulders is something special to behold. Stanzi might drop right down, maybe even to the fifth round. I'd happily use a first on this kid (I believe in trusting your instincts) but given that he's not highly sought after at the minute, you could hold till the second at least and still pick up the best prospect in this years Qb class (in my opinion).
Andy Dalton: At the combine, he barely put a foot wrong, but I'm not completely sold on Dalton. Partly that's because of a chronic shortage of film for this kid, but even the stuff I've seen throws up some question marks. In general though Dalton should do fine. He might take a little more time than some of the others, but he'll get there. Should prove to be a safe pick outside of the top 44.
Jeff Van Camp: Will likely still be there when the sixth and possibly seventh round comes about. At that price he'd be a complete bargain. I could happily take Van Camp with a late first rounder, though obviously there is no need. He'll slip. But teams could be looking back on this kid in years gone by and kicking themselves for passing him up.
Accuracy? Check. Arm Strength? Check. Vision? Check. Cool in the pocket? Check.
Watching Van Camp, the most obvious feature was the total lack of decent protection from his O-line and running backs. Yet he stayed in the pocket, braved it out, and made some great throws under severe pressure. Can't speak highly enough of Van Camp.
Kellen Moore: Nobody is talking about Kellen Moore. He'll probably still be there when the last name is called on the final day of the draft. Which is a shame. People are looking at Moore as a backup, as an undrafted rookie that might fill a roster spot for the future.
Honestly? I'd take Moore over Gabbert, Newton, Kaepernick or Locker in a heartbeat. Just like that. The kid has a lot of talent as a pure passer, but it would appear being a QB at Boise State isn't enough to draw the scouts attention. Shame. Damn shame.
Mike Hartline: QB for the Kentucky Wildcats in case you were wondering. An arrest for alcohol intoxication and disorderly conduct could have scuppered any chance of a career before it potentially begins. Which is unfortunate.
I remember watching Hartline for the first time. I was actually looking at Randall Cobb, when Hartline caught the eye. He has great anticipation. It's almost like he's watched the game already and now he's just going back to exploit openings. I hope Hartline gets a shot because he has untapped talent.
Of the quarterbacks then, who will make my rookie watchlist? Well, nothing is set in stone yet. There is still plenty of time to do more work and change my mind, but I see these guys making it at the minute:
- Christian Ponder,
- Ricky Stanzi,
- Jeff Van Camp,
- Kellen Moore,
- Mike Hartline,
- Ryan Mallett (for now)
- Andy Dalton (for now)
I'll probably be concentrating on the world of running backs next me thinks. I'll report back when I've gone through the lot. I'm probably half way through the list of players that I'm interested in.
Also I'm working on a piece now, in little chunks when I have the time, about how as an outsider looking I think Football can tell us a lot about America as a whole. Stay tuned.
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