Some observations from Week 16

One of these days I'll actually post my article about the three step drop. By the time I do, the damn play will have been banned from football, along with all forms of contact in football.

Anyway, the reason for the delay is because I want to pick up a couple of the main points coming out of the weekends games and I guess I might generally just run down some of the games, as and when things come to mind of interest. There are two main issues that I want to address though.

The first is to do with the Eagles and their defensive coordinator position currently held by Juan Castillo, the former offensive line coach. Basically with Steve Spagnuolo of the Rams likely to get the chop at the end of the season, many people are lining him up to replace Castillo as the Eagles Defensive coordinator for next year.

And I simply want to ask; why? In fact, let me ask you another question, just out of interest; Which team leads the NFL in sacks right now?

Answer; the Philadelphia Eagles.

See while everyone has been busy lately criticising Castillo for his schemes, people seem to have over looked the fact that the Eagles are actually one of the better defenses out there. They're not perfect, not by any means, but they're pretty good. They'll need some tweaking in the off season; getting the coverages sorted out to make the best use of the available talent, as well as sitting down with that young linebacker corps and watching some film to explain to them better about run fits etc. But otherwise that's not a bad defense and it can only get better in the off season with the right work.

The problem with the Eagles is not their defense. The problem with the Eagles is their offense.

Simply put, it sucks. And has sucked for most of 2011. The Eagles are practically in a league of their own when it comes to getting down into the red zone and then not producing a score. They are brilliant for 80 yards as they rip great chunks out of people in the open field, then they clam up (and stink it up) in those last 20 yards.

Juan Castillo is not the man to blame for the Eagles woes, it's Andy Reid. He's the guy that has at his disposal LeSean McCoy, Ronnine Brown, Mike Vick, Vince Young, DeSean Jackson, Riley Cooper, Jeremy Maclin, Jason Avant, Brent Celek and Jason Peters, to name just a few. That's an offense that a heck of a lot of teams in the NFL would kill for. And yet that is also an offense that has struggled to put points on the board when it mattered most, not to mention the hoard of turnovers they've given up.

All this finger waving at Castillo is pure bullshit. It's a distraction from the real issue here, which is that Andy Reid is struggling to get to his side of the "Dream Team" working the way it should. While the Panthers and Broncos have adjusted their respective offenses to accommodate the running abilities of their quarterbacks, what have the Eagles done? What adjustments have they made to get the most out of Vick?

And what about LeSean McCoy? McCoy is the second leading rusher in the league by yards. He leads the league in touchdowns with 17, which is three more than Cam Newton and five more than the closest running back (Marshawn Lynch). He leads the league in runs of 20+ yards with 14. And perhaps most tellingly, he leads the league in rushes for a first down, with 84, which is sixteen more than the next player on the list, Maurice Jones-Drew.

Yet he only averages 18 carries a game?

You have without doubt one of the most explosive players in the entire NFL on your team, yet you feed him the ball less than the 49ers feed Gore, or the Falcons feed Michael Turner. An especially odd decision given how much trouble the Eagles have had in the red zone.

All this means that I can't take criticism and talk of Juan Castillo being fired seriously. I don't mean that he wont get fired, just that I don't think he should. Considering this is his first season as a defensive coordinator I think he's done really well so far and again, I think an off season of work and preparation by the Eagles could yield some great results.

The question is whether the Eagles offense can lift its game next season and start to actually make that defensive work count for something. The Eagles have the personnel to make a Super Bowl run, I think everyone agrees on that. But until Andy Reid stops making excuses - and people stop making excuses for Andy Reid - then this same old sorry, tired Eagles saga will just repeat itself again season after season.

Now I'm going to take an interlude in my ramblings before I get to the second major issue I wanted to address, and talk about the Panthers. Mainly to give them a lot of credit for their 48-16 win against the Buccaneers.

All thoughts about the Buccaneers horrible run defense aside, I was impressed by the Panthers actually making use of running backs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, who I've long pronounced to be the best running back tandem in the NFL. Long time readers will be aware that this has been a hobby horse of mine for a while, bemoaning the John Fox/Jake Delhomme era because of the absolute abandonment of an otherwise excellent running game.

It was nice then to see it revived on Saturday. It also points to what is - in my opinion - one of the funniest things about the Cam Newton story. When Cam throws the ball a lot he invariably racks up the yards, rushes for a score, does his stupid Superman celebration... and then the Panthers still end up losing the game. On the other hand when the Panthers manage the game better and lean on their rushing attack, they often end up winning, and doing so comfortably.

C'est la vie, as they often say in France (along with "We Surrender!!").

I was also excited about the 49ers win over the Seahawks, although there was a slight downer in that they gave up their first rushing touchdown of the season. Naturally people have been hailing Jim Harbaugh again, as they have been all season long, but forgive me if I don't hang a poster of the guy on the wall just yet.

See I'm a 49ers fan and as a result I've endured misery for years now. I'm delighted that finally the 49ers are winning games and going back to the playoffs, even doing so in style. However I don't see what Jim Harbaugh has to do with it. Harbaugh is an offensive coach, not a defensive coach. And this 49ers offense has been almost as bad as those that preceded it. Alright, so maybe they haven't turned the ball over as much this year, and maybe there hasn't been as many sacks this year, but fundamentally the offense still sucks balls.

On the other hand I still don't hear anyone talking about Vic Fangio. Without looking at Wikipedia, can you even tell me who Vic Fangio is? If you didn't know already then you've probably guessed that Fangio is the defensive coordinator of the 49ers. It's this man and his defensive staff who should be getting the plaudits, along with whoever the specific people were that drafted or approved the signing of Justin Smith, Aldon Smith, Issac Sopoaga, Ray McDonald, Navorro Bowman, Ahmad Brooks, Patrick Willis, Parys Haralson, Chris Culliver and Carlos Rogers, to name just a few.

I don't blame Harbaugh, there's not really a lot he can do about it. He doesn't write the articles in the press or force people to talk about him on sports radio. I just think it's unfair that he's getting all the credit for something that essentially happens on the opposite side of the ball. That's not to say that he doesn't have some influence on it - I'd be shocked if he didn't - but most of the donkey work throughout the year will have been done by Fangio and his staff, work for which they are not getting their dues.

Vic, in the incredibly unlikely event that you're reading this, I thank you and your staff on behalf of 49ers fans everywhere.

Also congratulations to Drew Brees who has now surpassed Dan Marino for the single season passing yardage record. I'm undecided yet as to whether this should be considered more or less of an achievement than when Marino set the record. Not that it really matters that much, either way it's still a heck of a thing to have done.

The question is whether or not you think that it's easier to break the record now because teams throw the ball more than they did back then, or whether you think that it's precisely because teams throw it more now - which means that defenses are built to stop the pass - that makes Brees's achievement superior. An interesting debate to have over a pint I think.

One quarterback who wasn't setting any records though was Tim Tebow. I'd be gutted to see Tebow and the Broncos stumble at such a late stage, but it was inevitable that he was going to have a shitty game at one point. No fourth quarter heroics this time. Just four fourth quarter picks.

It should be noted that once again the Broncos receivers continued to demonstrate why there will be little demand for their services in the offseason, dropping passes like the ball was smeared in shit. Of course as always that doesn't fit the main press narrative, so we very rarely get even an acknowledgement of that fact. The Broncos defense also struggled for a change, which means the Broncos season now comes down to the final game against the Chiefs; win and they're in the playoffs. Or they can lose, and if the Chargers beat the Raiders then they're still in, but that's playing it risky.

Right, finally back on track and the other thing that I originally wanted to talk about, which was Joe Webb and the Vikings.

One play after Adrian Peterson suffered a sick looking injury to his knee (he could be doubtful even for week one of the 2012 season), quarterback Christian Ponder suffered a concussion and was eventually yanked from the game. In his place came Joe Webb. Webb went on to throw for two touchdowns and run in another with his feet. After the game the press went wild. Everywhere you look now, people are calling for Joe Webb to be the starter next year. My advice? Just hold the fuck up a second. Let's just recap Webb's numbers from Saturday's game shall we?

4/5 for 84 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Yes, four of five. He threw five passes and now all of a sudden people are putting him up on a pedestal and talking about him like he's the greatest thing to happen to the Vikings since they dumped Brad Childress. All this despite the various warning signs around the league about this kind of thing, namely Caleb Haine, Matt Cassel and Kevin Kolb.

Those are three names that should remind people that sometimes things aren't always what they seem. Yes, sometimes players have great games, or at least very good games. But one or two good games does not suddenly anoint someone with starting quarterback traits. It's a good place to begin, but long term success is not guaranteed.

Now don't get me wrong, Webb is a good player and has done well in every appearance he's had off the bench and in pres-season in Minnesota. But people are talking about him like he's the instant answer to all of Minnesota's many woes, and I'm just a little amazed at how quickly people are prepared to give up on Ponder, a first round pick who has done pretty well in his first few showings.

There is still one game left this year and I suspect the Vikings will be unlikely to throw Ponder back into the fray just for that single meaningless game. That means Webb could get the chance to start an actual regular season game for a change. I'm willing to bet that it may not quite be the touchdown bonanza that people think it will, depending on what kind of team the Bears put out.

I'll just finish by reminding people that in his last five starts as quarterback (not including this week), Ponder has lead the Vikings offense to score an average of 23 points per game. When Ponder went down injured this week the game was tied at 10-10, so it wasn't like Joe Webb came on and turned around a lost game either. In an age of instant gratification I'm beginning to worry that everyone involved in the football world has lost their sense of perspective.

So that's Week 16 in the books. Pick wise I came in at 13-3 for week 16, taking my season tally to 159-84, which I've just discovered is better than any of the analysts at FoxSports.com (both for the week and the season) and only two behind Accuscore and Pigskin Pick'em (both of whom I beat for the week) with one garbage week left to go.

Tomorrow I expect to put up my article on the three step drop. Slightly ironic that a post about the quick passing game has taken so long to be released.

Wildcard Weekend (part 1)

So now we know where three teams will be headed in 2011. The Titans have confirmed Jeff Fisher will be their coach for at least another year. The Dolphins have signed Tony Sparano through 2013. Not, however, before arranging a meeting with Eric Mangini to come on board as a "consultant", cancelling a press conference along the way that would have been used to confirm Sparano as the 2011 coach of the Dolphins. The meeting with Mangini didn't go ahead in the end and Sparano has been confirmed, but the damage to the reputation of both the coach and owner has been done. Dolphins owner Stephen Ross now looks like a jackass. And he's pulled Sparano down with him, effectively sending the message to the players that "we couldn't get the guy we wanted and we couldn't find anyone else who would take the role, so we're bringing back Sparano for you. Enjoy." Of course the guy they "wanted" was Jim Harbaugh, who will now be coaching the 49ers for 2011. Harbaugh's first order of business? Quarterback. With both Alex and Troy Smith up for free agency, that leaves David Carr as the only guy signed for 2011. With Harbaughs college QB Andrew Luck staying on for another year, that means the 49ers might be looking for a trade. One option is Josh Johnson of the Buccaneers, who Harbaugh has worked with previously. I really like Johnson so you won't hear any complaints from me. The other possibility, outside of the draft of course, is a free agent. Topping that list might be Donovan McNabb who is expected to be released by the Redskins. Please Jim; don't. McNabb has done well, but he's not exactly Mr. Consistent and seems to have a real problem dealing with pressure. Please, let's just go somewhere else, with a young guy who you can mold. Please. Just before we have a look at this Saturday's wild card games, just time to point you in the direction of the latest work from NFL.com's Albert Breer. Good stuff. Now, games, which after all is what football is all about. New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks (4:30PM ET, NBC) The stage is set for an epic disappointment. Quite whose, we don't yet know. It could be the Seahawks, their hopes raised after stumbling to victory over the Rams. On the back of Mike Williams and a semi-resurgent Marshawn Lynch, the Seahawks have become the first 7-9 division champion, and the first team outside of a strike shortened season to make the playoffs with a losing record. It all looks so hopeful. It's a big achievement, especially after such miserable seasons as the Seahawks have endured in recent years (as a 49er fan I can only say one thing. Good). Maybe this is their time to shine again? Or maybe it's their time to get their dreams crushed, as the Saints roll into town and flatten their helpless and hapless opponents in a demonstration of such sheer dominance and offensive power that the French nation promptly surrender to Coach Payton before he turns on them (a bit of good ol' fashion British light hearted humour/Xenophobia/racism there). Conversely, it could be the Saints in for a shock. God knows it would be a shock to all of us if Seattle wins, but they have a few things in their favour. Last year the Saints finished the regular season with a +11 turnover differential. This year the Saints finished at -6. That's not helped by the loss of running backs Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory. The expectation now is that with the loss of his run game, Drew Brees will have to throw even more, possibly close to 50 times in this game. With Brees's recent problems with interceptions, that could be a potential gold mine waiting to be tapped for Seattle. Then we have the crowd. The noise in Qwest Field is pretty legendary, and in a playoff game there is likely to be little respite for the Saints. That throws up issues of false starts at critical moments and a breakdown of communication, especially during audibles. The Saints are used to very loud stadiums, but not when their offense is on the field. Finally; just the sheer surprise factor of the Seahawks. They have nothing to lose and everything to gain, the exact opposite of the defending champion Saints. If the Saints are too cocky it could be their downfall. Too conservative and the same applies. Meanwhile the Seahawks can dig deep into the playbook on both sides of the ball and just go all out for the win. If they crash and burn, who cares? If Seattle gets hammered 45-0 I wont batter an eye lid (just laugh. Heartily). On paper I would expect the Saints to do just that. It's not like Seahawks fans realistically expect their team to beat the Saints. And if they lose by just 3 points? That's still a loss, so all that conservative play just went out of the window for nothing. If the Seahawks just come out, have fun and let it all hang loose, who knows? I should also probably take the time right now to point out that I wont be doing picks this week, or for the rest of the season (possibly not even for the whole of next season). My regular season record was just over .500, my playoff record from last year was terrible (including 0-7 from the Divisional round onwards if I remember rightly) and just generally I find it much more enjoyable watching games when I'm not secretly cheering on one side or the other because I picked them. And that's before we get onto the issue of teams not doing as their told (Texans, Panthers, Titans etc. Hate those guys). I doubt it'll be a great loss to the world. New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts (8:00PM ET, NBC) Surprise, surprise, Rex Ryan has been writing checks with his mouth that his team potentially wont be able to cash. The way to the Super Bowl would see the Jets likely take on Peyton Manning, arguably the best QB in the league today, followed by Tom Brady, arguably the best QB in the league today, and then possibly followed by Ben Roethlisberger, arguably the best QB in the league today. That's a hell of a lot of good quarterbacks to be facing, even for the Jets defense. While they have the potential to be very solid, they've also had their fair share of struggles this season, including against the Browns, a team not noted for the wild success of its offense. Let us not forget also that all of these teams must be overcome with Mark Sanchez at the helm for the Jets offense. Now just to recap, that means Mark Sanchez versus (potentially); -- The Colts defense, which was already good and has only got better lately. The Colts D gave up the highest percentage of passes completed in the regular season, but were in the top half of the table for least passing yards allowed. This is also a defense that gave up less touchdowns than the Jets. -- The Patriots defense, which gave up one more TD than the Jets D (25 to 24), but recorded over double the number of interceptions (25 to 12). -- The Steelers defense, which; conceded the second least yards per game (behind the Chargers), the least total points (232 compared to the Jets 304), the least points per game (14.5), conceded the second least (tied) percentage of 3rd down conversions (32%), recorded the most sacks (48), gave up less touchdowns (15) than it had interceptions (21), and gave up the fewest rushing yards (1,004) which was about 437 yards better than the second placed team (Chicago). In other words, it's going to be bloody hard for the Jets to make a dent in a very strong playoff group. The added pressure of Rex Ryan telling the world that he doesn't think Brady works as hard as Manning or can cope as well without his coaches as Manning, only helps to set up a great (and embarrassing) down fall in the divisional round. That's providing of course that they can topple the Colts. That would be the Indianapolis Colts who struggled at times, especially in the middle of the season, but otherwise did very well for themselves. Despite the hiccups, the Colts offense still finished with the 4th most points in the regular season and picked up more first downs per game than any other team. In particular Manning and the Colts love games like this. Racking up the points on offense entices the opposing side into a shoot out. That's where Freeney and Mathis come in. If the back end can hold up long enough (helped dramatically by playing less experienced QB's like Sanchez) that opens the door for a furious pass rush. When your rushing attack stinks, as the Jets has lately, that only increases your appearance of one dimensionality further. The Jets have fought and battled at times and somehow came through with the record that they did. If they want to go any further, it's going to take a tremendous effort. All I know is it's going to be a hell of a lot of fun to watch! Tomorrow I'll be back to recap the Saturday action and to look forward to Sunday's game.

Sharks in the water

Sparano is safe. For now at least it seems the Dolphins have decided to stick with Tony for another year. That leaves the door open for the 49ers to pounce uncontested on Jim Harbaugh. That is of course if they can convince Harbaugh to leave Stanford, which is something that his QB Andrew Luck is not quite ready to do just yet, returning for another year with the Cardinal (must... resist... temptation... to pluralise....). With Sparano returning, we've also now learned that Dan Henning, the offensive coordinator, won't. Henning oversaw a sketchy offense in Miami this year. Chad Henne seemed to regress as the season went along and there was almost no talk of running backs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams who faded into the dust it would seem. The Cowboys meanwhile have now officially promoted Jason Garrett to the position of permanent Head Coach (God help him), having conducted all the necessary token interviews of black coaches. The Vikings Head Coach for 2011, Leslie Frazier, is also quite busy. Reports from the press indicate that the Vikings have interviews lined up with former 49ers Head Coach Mike Singletary, possibly just to come in as a linebackers coach, along with an interview for former Broncos top man Josh McDaniels to be the offensive coordinator. Two hires that sound surprisingly wise for the Vikings. Wise is not the choice of words I would use though for the latest outburst from Chad Ochocinco. According to ProFootballTalk.com, Ochocinco went for the publicity jugular by saying that race is the determining reason why a guy like Favre would be paid $4 million to come back for another season, but why nobody would give Owens or Ochocinco $4 million. At first I was like "no way, no way did he say something that stupid!!". Then I watched the video..... What the hell Chad? The only thing I can think of was that he was going for the shock factor. In fact, this next video might suggest that's precisely what Ochocinco was going for. At least, I hope it was. On a side note, NFL.com really needs to get one of its web designer/engineer type people to check out Versus.com's site, with particular attention to the video. Look!! The videos load at a normal rate without constant lag! I can click anywhere along the time bar and the video instantly jumps to, and plays from, that point without having to reload the entire damn video! There are less adverts, and God knows the Versus network must need the revenue money more than the NFL. And I can embed the videos! That means I can show people their content which is more likely to drive pageviews back to their site! It's a miracle isn't it NFL.com? To provide a decent (and profitable) service for your fans/customers/potential customers without being assholes. You should try it sometime.

Hop on the Coaching Carousel

Well, Wade Philips has found a new home. The Texans have finally decided that their defense needs a kick up the butt and that Philips is the man to do it. In fairness, despite his lack of success as a Head Coach, Philips still did pretty well handling his defense. And really, anything has to be better than what the Texans produced in 2010. What's even more scary is that just a slight improvement on defense should give the Texans a legitimate shot at making the playoffs in 2011. Like the Saints of 2008, they currently have an electric offense married to a sub standard defense. When the Saints brought in Greg Williams for 2009 and made some improvement on that side of the ball, suddenly they found themselves winning the Super Bowl. Could Houston finally make it over the brink in 2011? Watch this space. Speaking of the Saints, Drew Brees is going to be working extra hard for his money this week against Seattle. Both running backs Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory are done, resting now and forced to watch nervously from the sidelines on injured reserve. That means it's down to Reggie Bush and Julius Jones to carry the load for the Saints. Which can't hurt the Seahawks chances of pulling off an upset. Please, don't tell me that Seattle is going to make the divisional round. Surely not. They can't. Just, no. Now, remember yesterday I said that the Dolphins might be in the hunt for Jim Harbaugh, along with the 49ers? Well the bidding war begins! Harbaugh has apparently met with the 49ers and I'm guessing it wasn't to share tips on making the perfect coffee blend. The 49ers have already interviewed Hue Jackson, the Raiders offensive coordinator, in part to comply with the Rooney Rule. That means the 49ers are now free to seal the deal with Harbaugh, which NFL.com reports could be worth around $5 million. The Dolphins on the other hand have a number of problems. Firstly, they still haven't provided a formal offer. Having reportedly thrown $7 million the way of Jon Gruden, who turned it down to stay on as an analyst at ESPN, the Dolphins certainly don't have an issue when it comes to laying down the goods to finance their new coach. Secondly, unlike the 49ers, the Dolphins have yet to interview a minority candidate in order to comply with the Rooney Rule. Even if they agreed to terms with Harbaugh privately, they would still have to wait while the full interview process was carried out to comply with the rule. That might be too long for Harbaugh, who is looking to cause as little disruption to his staff and players at Stanford as possible. Now I'm sure there was something else? Oh that's right, thirdly... THE DOLPHINS STILL HAVEN'T FIRED SPARANO!! The poor guy. Everyday he's picking up the newspaper or checking out the sports news and reading about all these great lengths that owner Stephen Ross is going to find a new coach, and they still haven't had the decency to formerly fire the guy! I mean c'mon, at least give the guy his payoff and let him go enjoy a holiday somewhere. EDIT: Bugger, I just remembered what I originally meant to write a post about. Vince Young will be leaving the Titans before the 2011 season. It appears owner Bud Adams has had enough and has been advised that given the choice of dumping either the superb moustache of Jeff Fisher or the bad work ethic of Vince Young, then it should be Young who goes. With a sizeable roster bonus due in March, it's likely that Young will be cut before then.