Some observations from Week 16

One of these days I'll actually post my article about the three step drop. By the time I do, the damn play will have been banned from football, along with all forms of contact in football.

Anyway, the reason for the delay is because I want to pick up a couple of the main points coming out of the weekends games and I guess I might generally just run down some of the games, as and when things come to mind of interest. There are two main issues that I want to address though.

The first is to do with the Eagles and their defensive coordinator position currently held by Juan Castillo, the former offensive line coach. Basically with Steve Spagnuolo of the Rams likely to get the chop at the end of the season, many people are lining him up to replace Castillo as the Eagles Defensive coordinator for next year.

And I simply want to ask; why? In fact, let me ask you another question, just out of interest; Which team leads the NFL in sacks right now?

Answer; the Philadelphia Eagles.

See while everyone has been busy lately criticising Castillo for his schemes, people seem to have over looked the fact that the Eagles are actually one of the better defenses out there. They're not perfect, not by any means, but they're pretty good. They'll need some tweaking in the off season; getting the coverages sorted out to make the best use of the available talent, as well as sitting down with that young linebacker corps and watching some film to explain to them better about run fits etc. But otherwise that's not a bad defense and it can only get better in the off season with the right work.

The problem with the Eagles is not their defense. The problem with the Eagles is their offense.

Simply put, it sucks. And has sucked for most of 2011. The Eagles are practically in a league of their own when it comes to getting down into the red zone and then not producing a score. They are brilliant for 80 yards as they rip great chunks out of people in the open field, then they clam up (and stink it up) in those last 20 yards.

Juan Castillo is not the man to blame for the Eagles woes, it's Andy Reid. He's the guy that has at his disposal LeSean McCoy, Ronnine Brown, Mike Vick, Vince Young, DeSean Jackson, Riley Cooper, Jeremy Maclin, Jason Avant, Brent Celek and Jason Peters, to name just a few. That's an offense that a heck of a lot of teams in the NFL would kill for. And yet that is also an offense that has struggled to put points on the board when it mattered most, not to mention the hoard of turnovers they've given up.

All this finger waving at Castillo is pure bullshit. It's a distraction from the real issue here, which is that Andy Reid is struggling to get to his side of the "Dream Team" working the way it should. While the Panthers and Broncos have adjusted their respective offenses to accommodate the running abilities of their quarterbacks, what have the Eagles done? What adjustments have they made to get the most out of Vick?

And what about LeSean McCoy? McCoy is the second leading rusher in the league by yards. He leads the league in touchdowns with 17, which is three more than Cam Newton and five more than the closest running back (Marshawn Lynch). He leads the league in runs of 20+ yards with 14. And perhaps most tellingly, he leads the league in rushes for a first down, with 84, which is sixteen more than the next player on the list, Maurice Jones-Drew.

Yet he only averages 18 carries a game?

You have without doubt one of the most explosive players in the entire NFL on your team, yet you feed him the ball less than the 49ers feed Gore, or the Falcons feed Michael Turner. An especially odd decision given how much trouble the Eagles have had in the red zone.

All this means that I can't take criticism and talk of Juan Castillo being fired seriously. I don't mean that he wont get fired, just that I don't think he should. Considering this is his first season as a defensive coordinator I think he's done really well so far and again, I think an off season of work and preparation by the Eagles could yield some great results.

The question is whether the Eagles offense can lift its game next season and start to actually make that defensive work count for something. The Eagles have the personnel to make a Super Bowl run, I think everyone agrees on that. But until Andy Reid stops making excuses - and people stop making excuses for Andy Reid - then this same old sorry, tired Eagles saga will just repeat itself again season after season.

Now I'm going to take an interlude in my ramblings before I get to the second major issue I wanted to address, and talk about the Panthers. Mainly to give them a lot of credit for their 48-16 win against the Buccaneers.

All thoughts about the Buccaneers horrible run defense aside, I was impressed by the Panthers actually making use of running backs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, who I've long pronounced to be the best running back tandem in the NFL. Long time readers will be aware that this has been a hobby horse of mine for a while, bemoaning the John Fox/Jake Delhomme era because of the absolute abandonment of an otherwise excellent running game.

It was nice then to see it revived on Saturday. It also points to what is - in my opinion - one of the funniest things about the Cam Newton story. When Cam throws the ball a lot he invariably racks up the yards, rushes for a score, does his stupid Superman celebration... and then the Panthers still end up losing the game. On the other hand when the Panthers manage the game better and lean on their rushing attack, they often end up winning, and doing so comfortably.

C'est la vie, as they often say in France (along with "We Surrender!!").

I was also excited about the 49ers win over the Seahawks, although there was a slight downer in that they gave up their first rushing touchdown of the season. Naturally people have been hailing Jim Harbaugh again, as they have been all season long, but forgive me if I don't hang a poster of the guy on the wall just yet.

See I'm a 49ers fan and as a result I've endured misery for years now. I'm delighted that finally the 49ers are winning games and going back to the playoffs, even doing so in style. However I don't see what Jim Harbaugh has to do with it. Harbaugh is an offensive coach, not a defensive coach. And this 49ers offense has been almost as bad as those that preceded it. Alright, so maybe they haven't turned the ball over as much this year, and maybe there hasn't been as many sacks this year, but fundamentally the offense still sucks balls.

On the other hand I still don't hear anyone talking about Vic Fangio. Without looking at Wikipedia, can you even tell me who Vic Fangio is? If you didn't know already then you've probably guessed that Fangio is the defensive coordinator of the 49ers. It's this man and his defensive staff who should be getting the plaudits, along with whoever the specific people were that drafted or approved the signing of Justin Smith, Aldon Smith, Issac Sopoaga, Ray McDonald, Navorro Bowman, Ahmad Brooks, Patrick Willis, Parys Haralson, Chris Culliver and Carlos Rogers, to name just a few.

I don't blame Harbaugh, there's not really a lot he can do about it. He doesn't write the articles in the press or force people to talk about him on sports radio. I just think it's unfair that he's getting all the credit for something that essentially happens on the opposite side of the ball. That's not to say that he doesn't have some influence on it - I'd be shocked if he didn't - but most of the donkey work throughout the year will have been done by Fangio and his staff, work for which they are not getting their dues.

Vic, in the incredibly unlikely event that you're reading this, I thank you and your staff on behalf of 49ers fans everywhere.

Also congratulations to Drew Brees who has now surpassed Dan Marino for the single season passing yardage record. I'm undecided yet as to whether this should be considered more or less of an achievement than when Marino set the record. Not that it really matters that much, either way it's still a heck of a thing to have done.

The question is whether or not you think that it's easier to break the record now because teams throw the ball more than they did back then, or whether you think that it's precisely because teams throw it more now - which means that defenses are built to stop the pass - that makes Brees's achievement superior. An interesting debate to have over a pint I think.

One quarterback who wasn't setting any records though was Tim Tebow. I'd be gutted to see Tebow and the Broncos stumble at such a late stage, but it was inevitable that he was going to have a shitty game at one point. No fourth quarter heroics this time. Just four fourth quarter picks.

It should be noted that once again the Broncos receivers continued to demonstrate why there will be little demand for their services in the offseason, dropping passes like the ball was smeared in shit. Of course as always that doesn't fit the main press narrative, so we very rarely get even an acknowledgement of that fact. The Broncos defense also struggled for a change, which means the Broncos season now comes down to the final game against the Chiefs; win and they're in the playoffs. Or they can lose, and if the Chargers beat the Raiders then they're still in, but that's playing it risky.

Right, finally back on track and the other thing that I originally wanted to talk about, which was Joe Webb and the Vikings.

One play after Adrian Peterson suffered a sick looking injury to his knee (he could be doubtful even for week one of the 2012 season), quarterback Christian Ponder suffered a concussion and was eventually yanked from the game. In his place came Joe Webb. Webb went on to throw for two touchdowns and run in another with his feet. After the game the press went wild. Everywhere you look now, people are calling for Joe Webb to be the starter next year. My advice? Just hold the fuck up a second. Let's just recap Webb's numbers from Saturday's game shall we?

4/5 for 84 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Yes, four of five. He threw five passes and now all of a sudden people are putting him up on a pedestal and talking about him like he's the greatest thing to happen to the Vikings since they dumped Brad Childress. All this despite the various warning signs around the league about this kind of thing, namely Caleb Haine, Matt Cassel and Kevin Kolb.

Those are three names that should remind people that sometimes things aren't always what they seem. Yes, sometimes players have great games, or at least very good games. But one or two good games does not suddenly anoint someone with starting quarterback traits. It's a good place to begin, but long term success is not guaranteed.

Now don't get me wrong, Webb is a good player and has done well in every appearance he's had off the bench and in pres-season in Minnesota. But people are talking about him like he's the instant answer to all of Minnesota's many woes, and I'm just a little amazed at how quickly people are prepared to give up on Ponder, a first round pick who has done pretty well in his first few showings.

There is still one game left this year and I suspect the Vikings will be unlikely to throw Ponder back into the fray just for that single meaningless game. That means Webb could get the chance to start an actual regular season game for a change. I'm willing to bet that it may not quite be the touchdown bonanza that people think it will, depending on what kind of team the Bears put out.

I'll just finish by reminding people that in his last five starts as quarterback (not including this week), Ponder has lead the Vikings offense to score an average of 23 points per game. When Ponder went down injured this week the game was tied at 10-10, so it wasn't like Joe Webb came on and turned around a lost game either. In an age of instant gratification I'm beginning to worry that everyone involved in the football world has lost their sense of perspective.

So that's Week 16 in the books. Pick wise I came in at 13-3 for week 16, taking my season tally to 159-84, which I've just discovered is better than any of the analysts at FoxSports.com (both for the week and the season) and only two behind Accuscore and Pigskin Pick'em (both of whom I beat for the week) with one garbage week left to go.

Tomorrow I expect to put up my article on the three step drop. Slightly ironic that a post about the quick passing game has taken so long to be released.

Andy Reid in trouble, but not Tim Tebow

So two things first, then some diagramming. Then... we'll you can do whatever you want. I'll be off to go watch some College games with a view to keeping an eye on the 2012 and 2013 draft classes. Better to get a look in as early as possible I guess.

Anyway, at the risk of sounding like your boss in a morning meeting, the first thing on the agenda is the Andy Reid situation in Philly. As pointed out before on these pages, any kind of failure to live up to the wild hype was going to end in tears in Philly. It was inevitable from the moment they started spending money on big names. The Vince Young quote just made it worse.

Now as expected the Philadelphia press is turning on Andy Reid big time. As always, people seem to assume that bringing in a new coach now will solve all the problems that the Eagles have. It won't. We're five weeks into the season. A new coach would barely have enough time to get his head around who all his coaches are, who the players are and how the various systems are run by the time the season ends. Like it or not Eagles fans, Andy Reid is your best shot for the rest of the season.

That's not to say that he's without fault. Ultimately the Head Coach is responsible for everything that happens on his team. The defense may not be your speciality, but tough. You should know enough about it to know how it works and how to deal with problems in it. Juan Castillo may be in charge of the defense, but you're the guy that put him in charge, so you're the guy responsible for a) making sure he was up to the job and b) making sure he has all the support he needs to do his job. The buck stops at the top.

The good news for the defense - and for Juan Castillo - is that only one of the Eagles problems is down to that side of the ball. It's a problem they know about and it's an eminently fixable problem. And despite the hysteria in the Philadelphia press, it has nothing to do with "wide nines". It's the linebackers.

This is something I brought up a while back, when coming to the defense of Casey Matthews. People in the Philadelphia (and wider) press have been bitching about how easy it is to run inside of the wide defensive ends that the Eagles use. Of course this seems like a valid argument on the surface, but anyone with even a rudimentary understanding of how defenses are put together will know that it's not the job of the defensive ends to protect that inside running lane.

If you follow the link to the Matthews article you'll see the diagram of a 4-3 defense like that used by the Eagles, complete with marks to show which gaps the players are responsible for in the running game. As you can see, the defensive ends are responsible for the gaps to the outside of the offensive tackles. This is basic, day one installation of the 4-3 defense stuff.

The Eagles problems have nothing to do with wide nines and everything to do with not filling the gaps by the linebackers and the defensive linemen. The "Will" linebacker should be filling the gap between the Left Tackle and Left Guard. The defensive tackle in the "three technique" position should be filling the gap between the Right Guard and Right Tackle.

(In my diagram the defensive end was lined up inside the tight end. All that happens in a wide nine situation is that he lines up a little further outside and now the "Sam" linebacker takes the gap between the Right Tackle and the Tight End).

It really is that simple. There are kids across the US, probably practicing right at this minute as I type this, who understand it. It has nothing to do with the ends. It's not their job. Their job is to rush the passer and contain running plays, funnelling everything inside to other people. It's the job of the others to fill the missing gaps.

Of course there are other ways of doing this. You can line up the defensive tackles head up on the guards and make them "two gap", that is to say they'd be responsible for the gaps on either side of the guards. Using a controlled pass rush they can get into the backfield, pushing the guards backwards to close the pocket from the inside, while also keeping themselves at arms reach from the linemen and ready to make a tackle. I'll admit it's not exactly conventional to mix up the gap scheme like that, but needs must, as they say.

Really though it's the linebackers and their discipline that needs to be addressed. The Eagles need to sit their linebackers down in a room, with the linebacker coach Mike Caldwell, coordinator Juan Castillo, Head Coach Andy Reid and just for kicks, offensive line coach Howard Mudd. Show the linebackers the gaps on film. Show them examples of what you mean, how to fill the gaps, using old tape. And then ram it home, time after time for a good hour until they can repeat the instructions in their sleep. Of course, there is something else the Eagles could do to help....

STOP. TURNING. THE. FUU... FREAKING. BALL. OVER. ON. OFFENSE.

Through five games now, Mike Vick has seven interceptions and seven fumbles, three of which have been lost. Mike Kafka has another two interceptions to add. The Eagles have also suffered three more fumbles, all lost. Put against their defensive interceptions and fumble recoveries, that leaves the Eagles minus 10 in the turnover stakes. Couple that with their - at times - shocking red zone performance and you have your answer.

See the trouble is this. The Eagles defense is not built to stop the run. That's not what they do. Their defense is built to stop the pass. Why? Because the offense is so explosive. The Eagles lead the league in rushing yardage. Yes, trust me, they do. LeSean McCoy is a touchdown run waiting to happen. Vicks running has been incredible and receivers like Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson are more than capable of ripping off big yardage.

Thus the defense is built to attack opponents who are trying to play catch up. The whole point of the wide nine defensive ends is to give them a better angle to rush the passer (Jason Babin has seven sacks already). Their secondary is replete with playmakers who can gamble and get you interceptions. It doesn't matter if they give up big yards or big scores every now and again, because the offense is supposed to be high powered enough to compensate. It's a gamble, but a calculated one at that.

The big problem is that it's the Eagles offense who are turning it over right now. Vick's fumbles and interceptions are killing his team, just as sure as the turnovers of Tony Romo are killing the Cowboys. The Eagles don't need to fix their defense. They need to fix their offense. And they need to do it quick.

Whatever it takes, the Eagles need to find a way to stop turning the ball over so much while still getting the ball to their play makers. They also need to find ways to turn yardage into points in the red zone. It's not easy, I understand that. But it's not like the Eagles are short of good players on offense. In fact, they're pretty much loaded up at all positions.

Which, come to think of it, is the responsibility of Andy Reid. After all, he calls the plays. In fact, maybe if someone else was calling the plays, the Eagles would score more points and they would make the playoffs. Hey....

FIRE ANDY REID!!

No wait, what am I saying? I hate the Eagles. I don't want a potentially good team like that making the playoffs and possibly disrupting the nefarious plans of the 49ers to slip through to the Super Bowl despite being - at heart - shit. Hey!

KEEP ANDY REID!!

You know what, I dunno any more. Let's go back to me being your boss in the morning meeting and quietly move things along to the second item on the agenda. Which is Tim Tebow. Or rather, the fact that John Fox has announced to his team that Tim Tebow will be starting for the Broncos in week seven when they play the Miami Dolphins (who as it happens will be honoring Tebow and his former Florida Gators team mates. Because that's just how the Dolphins luck is right now).

So, what do I think about it? Well I'm glad you asked.

I like Tebow. I've said before, I don't buy all the bullshit about him not being able to throw and I don't buy all the crap about his throwing motion either. I won't go over that again here. Suffice to say that if you haven't read it already, the article is here, including videos and stuff.

What I'm trying to figure out is if this was a genius move by Coach Fox, or whether he just kind of blundered into it. The blundering angle would involve him just pulling Orton and saying "you know what, this game is over, let's just roll with the Kid and see what he's got."

For it to qualify as a genius move it would require a bit of foresight on Fox's part. See the Broncos have next week off for the bye. Was Fox thinking about that when he put Tebow out? Was he thinking "you know what, if Tebow turns out to be ok, we could spend two weeks over the bye slotting him into our offense" while subtley rubbing his chin and making that noise that people do when they think they've just hit on a master plan.

Or it could be even more subtle, and devious, and slightly nasty. Maybe he was thinking "this Tebow guy sucks. I know what will do for him. I'll make him start on the night in Miami, on the same night they're honoring him. I'll get the OC to call bad plays and embarrass him in front of the Miami crowd..."

Or it could be even more subtle, more devious, less nasty, but slightly more genius. Maybe he was thinking "What I'll do is put Tebow in for the Miami game. They need a quarterback. Maybe if I show him off, they'll trade for him?"

Or you know what, I could just be grossly over thinking this. My guess is that with the bye week just around the corner and realising that Orton wasn't getting it done, Fox decided to just give Tebow a look against the Chargers. He did well, so now he has two weeks to build an offense that works, preferably one that doesn't involve Tebow risking injury quite as much as he does right now. To be fair, he's a big guy and has demonstrated his toughness on multiple occassions now. Still not sure I'd want him playing the concussion lottery each week though.

At this point I should probably think about moving on to the diagrams, but you know what? This post is already too long and it gives me something to do tomorrow. So tomorrow I will be back with a piece on the outside zone running play that most teams are now using in the NFL.

I've also just noticed that almost every time I write an article about the Eagles I also seem to end up writing about Tim Tebow. I'm not quite sure why that is, but there you go.

For now I'm off to go and watch some College ball. Don't forget to hit the Facebooky like thing if you haven't done so already. Or you could e-mail your co-workers a link to this, instead of sending them chain letters or pictures of dogs wearing hats.

Your choice.