2011 Pre-Season Week 3 (part 1)

As we edge closer to the start of the season it's time to take a look at how the Thursday and Friday games from pre-season week 3 panned out. Starting with...

The Panthers @ Bengals. And you know you're looking bad when this Bengals team can beat you. At this juncture it's probably a good time to point out that the Bengals did most of the damage with their starters against the Panthers starters, before anyone starts talking about third stringers.

Though initially it seemed bright enough for the Panthers with Cam Newton running 16 yards for the first score. But that's kind of where the fun ended for Cam, who finished 6/19 for 75 yards. Yes, 6/19. Now I know he's a rookie but that's still pretty bad. What I love most though is that had this been Tim Tebow in his rookie year, people would have been pouring on the hate. But I'm not hearing it now? Funny that. Ok, I'll make it up for all the lost voices; Newton is going to suck this year. And probably every other year.

There you go.

On the other side Andy Dalton started to show some signs of life, throwing 11/17 for 130 yards and a TD. Getting there Andy. Very slowly, but getting there. The real focus for the Bengals though should be on that running game. Cedric Benson and Bernard Scott combined for 22 carries, producing 131 yards and 2 touchdowns. The vitality of this running attack could just be the key to getting Dalton through the season with some semblance of success.

Next was the Browns @ Eagles. Mike Vick took some lumps for the Eagles, but complimented his 10/18 for 98 yards passing with 4 carries for 24 yards and a TD. Vince Young played the "anything you can do, I can do precisely the same" game, by also carrying 4 times for 24 yards and a TD. Running backs Ronnie Brown and Dion Lewis did a lot of the ground work, but LeSean McCoy was the back that got the cream, with 7 catches for a team leading 69 yards receiving.

For the Browns, Colt McCoy looked a little less assured this time around, with 9/18 for 89 yards plus an interception off a poor decision, throwing the ball under pressure to a waiting Asante Samuel who dropped off his outside receiver and snuck underneath the pass to make a great pick. Seneca Wallace clawed back a TD pass for the Browns, before rookie Jarrett Brown hit the field and went 4/4 for 35 yards and a TD. Kid's had quite a solid pre-season so far.

On defense it was all about the Eagles, who accompanied Samuel's interception with five sacks. They're still not quite the Dream Team in Philadelphia, but at least they look a little less shaky now.

Next was the Redskins @ Ravens, and quite a tight game. The Redskins quarterback battle continues with Rex Grossman throwing 8/15 for 112 yards and a TD to John Becks 6/10 for 108 yards and a TD, plus an INT. Overall I'm not sure who will win. Grossman has had the lions share of the playing time so he has more film for Shanahan and son to review, but I think Beck might just sneak it. He just looks a little sharper in general.

The story of the Redskins is still their running game though. Tim Hightower and rookie Roy Helu put up exactly 100 yards between them on 22 carries. Hightower also had a touchdown. Second year wide receiver Terrence Austin also impressed, with 5 carries for 71 yards and a TD. The 'skins defense also looked a bit better, with an interception by DeAngelo Hall and four sacks as a unit, including single sacks for rookies Ryan Kerrigan and Davonte Shannon.

For the Ravens, Joe Flacco kind of looked better in this game. Sort of. A little. Trying to find nice things to say about someone I don't rate all that much. He finished 17/27 for 219 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception (the DeAngelo Hall pick 6). Rookie Tyrod Taylor definitely improved, with 11/18 for 125 yards and a TD. Running back Ray Rice found his groove (13 carries, 72 yards, 1 TD) as did recent acquisition receiver Lee Evans, who caught 3 passes for 60 yards and a TD. Anquan Boldin had 5 catches for 73 yards and a TD as well. Ladarius Webb stood out on the Ravens D, with an interception and a sack.

Packers @ Colts next. The Curtis Painter saga continues. People have been heaping praise on him in the last few hours but I would say hold up a second. He was 11/21 for 171 yards and 2 touchdowns. That's not bad, but let's face it, for Curtis Painter that is practically a career performance. To top it off, 57 of those hallowed yards came when Reggie Wayne was left wide open as corner Sam Shields tried to emulate Asante Samuel's baiting trick from the day before... except Samuel had a safety playing the proper technique over the top and Shields didn't. The result was the Wayne TD. And Painter still sucks.

Aaron Rodgers doesn't though, finishing the game 19/23 for 204 yards and a TD, while looking just as slick as he did in last years Super Bowl. Except for that stupid moustache come beard thing he's sporting now. You're not rock and roll Aaron. AC/DC will not be calling anytime soon. "Rookie" Graham Harrell (he's 26 and played in the pre-season last year) then came in and finished the game 12/21 for 85 yards, an interception, but also a touchdown with just 35 seconds left on the clock, followed by a two point conversion.

The Packers then caught the Colts napping with an onside kick, demonstrating the lack of game management from Colts Head Coach Jim Caldwell that hurt his team at times last year.

Both defenses did well. The Packers had 4 sacks, one by Clay Matthews and the other three coming from rookies. The Colts D produced 5, including two for Dwight Freeney and one for former Bear Tommie Harris. This is definitely a positive sign, given that in the Peyton Manning era the defense has often let down the rest of the team.

Finally for today we have the Rams @ Chiefs. Quarterback Sam Bradford looked ok for the Rams, throwing 9/16 for 95 yards and 2 touchdowns, but also a dangerous interception while backed up near his own goal line, as he failed to see the grossly under rated linebacker Derrick Johnson lurking in underneath coverage. Johnson also had a sack. Rams back up A.J. Feely was 8/13 for 65 yards and an interception.

The Rams rushing attack did much better though. Steven Jackson turned 15 carries into 72 yards while Cadillac Williams carried 12 times for 53 yards. Rookie Tight End Lance Kendricks has been making me look good for calling him better than Kyle Rudolph and he continued that theme against the Chiefs with 2 catches for 26 yards and a touchdown. On defense, rookie defensive end Robert Quinn restored my rookie predicting karma to zero, by defying my criticism of him and having a sack/fumble, plus blocking a field goal.

But then on the Chiefs side Ricky Stanzi tried to get me back on the plus side for this game, finally pulling his finger out of his arse to throw 8/14 for 121 yards and a lovely touchdown pass, with no interceptions. Keep it up. Matt Cassel meanwhile wallowed in his own personal well of mediocrity, with 6/13 for 59 yards. Tip; when you make Tyler Palko look good (7/12, 92 yards) then you're doing something very wrong.

That's it for today. If you think I'm doing all of Saturdays games in one marathon chunk tomorrow then you've got another thing coming. I'll likely be back Monday night (technically Tuesday morning here). Till then, have a good weekend, enjoy the football and don't forget to hit the Facebook-like-button-thingy at the bottom.

Do it.

AFC North 2011 preview

Finally, finally, I can round up this series of 2011 previews. I've almost come to resent it by this point (but not as much as I resent the prick at work who pulled the sicky last night). We've reached the AFC North, at last. Starting with: Baltimore Ravens: Once again the Ravens had a solid year. Once again their defense led the way. And once again it was their offense that choked at the most inappropriate moment. Crappy play calling, communication errors in pass protection; it wouldn't be so bad for Ravens fans if it wasn't the same tired old problems every year. But it is. So it just makes the Ravens offense all the more laughable. Free agency won't help. Jared Gaither, the highly competent offensive tackle, will hit unrestricted free agency. So does WR T. J. Houshmandzadeh. And FB Le'Ron McClain. And WR Dante Stallworth. And QB Marc Bulger. Ok, so we can write off the whole Stallworth & Bulger thing, but those other three will be missed. Looking at the defense though, it gets even worse. Chris Carr. Dawan Landry. Fabian Washington. All up for unrestricted free agency. On top of that Naruki Nakamura and Tom Zbikowski are up for restricted free agency and proved themselves as handy little players this past season. The net result could be a severe depletion of the Ravens secondary. Literally, we're talking about down to four or five players, of which only three are starters and the other two are captain nobodies. The Ravens are potentially about to turn into a soccer ball; seriously deficient in corners. Other than that (he says) the Ravens are ok and will have their options open in this years draft. They pick at 26th overall, and other than corner their only real nagging need would be linebacker. Part of that depends on what they choose to do with Sergio Kindle, who missed the whole season with a serious head injury and now has a court date lined up for some infraction which currently escapes my memory and is not sufficiently important to motivate me to look it up on Wikipedia. It could be argued as well that the Ravens could use a true deep threat receiver, with sufficient speed and height to give Joe Flacco a proper downfield target. As for the 2011 outlook? The Ravens should be fine. Providing of course they can sort out that whole problem of not having a secondary. And the lack of a deep threat receiver. And the shortage of linebackers. And if they can teach Ray Rice how to pass block. Or better yet, they can just fix their play-calling (run more and/or stop asking Ray Rice to pass block). Maybe 2012 will be their year? Cincinnati Bengals: Ah the Bengals, desperately trying to convince the word that they can be just as dysfunctional and poorly run as the Raiders or Redskins. A 4-12 season in 2010 wasn't quite what they had in mind, especially after winning the AFC North the season before. The loud thud that could be heard in Ohio at the end of this season was either; a) The sound of a Bengals fan jumping out of a high rise window, b) The sound of Chad Ochocinco being thrown under a bus by his Head Coach, c) The sound of every bodies jaws dropping when Ochocinco made his now semi-famous "they won't give you a new contract because your black" speech to Terrell Owens, d) The sound of both Terrell Owens's and Chad Ochocinco's stock plummeting, or e) The sound of Carson Palmer slamming the door shut on his way out, Either way I think I've sufficiently belaboured the point now about the Bengals downfall. Just be thankful I didn't associate thumping noises with any mention of Tank Johnson. So lets have a look at the Bengals unrestricted free agents and... oh dear!! Not looking good! Say bye, bye to star RB Cedric Benson. And LB Dhani Jones, LB Brandon Johnson, star CB Jonathan Joseph, FB Brian Leonard, OG Evan Mathis, Safeties Chinedum Ndukwe and Gibril Wilson, and of course, WR Terrell Owens. Possibly (re: almost definitely) add Chad Ochocino to that list. Oh yeah, and of course Carson Palmer. You remember him, the teams only real veteran QB. All of those departures certainly open the doors of possibility when it comes to the draft. Picking at number 4 overall, the Bengals have to make a choice. Do they go QB? RB? WR? LB? SS? FS? (shut up, I know they're almost the same thing). The choice will be interesting, and ultimately necessary for the Bengals. Because short of a miracle in the draft and free agency, the Bengals will hit the start of the 2011 season without a true starting QB, with two back up RB (and three back up FB's), a five man wide receiver outfit (maybe a chance finally for Andre Caldwell? Here's hoping), a depleted linebacker corps and no decent starting safeties. That for me is not a recipe for success, especially not when facing the Steelers. Twice. On the other hand, it could go spectacularly right. Stay with me on this one. The Bengals switch their offense to a "ground and pound" style, something which their O-line has proven to be very, very good at. On defense they start to reap the rewards of their investment in the D-line. They don't score much, but it doesn't matter because their well rested defense is more than up to the task of keeping other teams scores down. You're right, it'll never happen. Onwards and upwards. Cleveland Browns: The fact that the Browns finished 5-11 shouldn't come as a surprise. The sacking of Head Coach Eric Mangini should however. I thought Mangini was just starting to get in the swing of things. In his interviews he sounded like he'd mellowed out a little and was just starting to find his feet as the top dog. He had a great young QB in the works and the team was on the up. But then the Dark Lord of the West Coast Offense (Mike Holmgren) swung his axe and it was all over. Now the Browns will be led into the breach for 2011 by Pat Shurmer, formerly the offensive coordinator of the St. Louis Rams in his first outing as a Head Coach. I rather get the sense that the Sword of Damacles is hanging over his head, and Holmgren is just waiting for the right moment to cut him down and assume the throne. Still, at least the Browns have the chance to refresh the team with some slick moves in free agency. Like Franchising their kicker for example. Wait, what? They franchise tagged Phil Dawson? Just...... why? Not LB/DE Matt Roth then? Or safety Sabby Piscitelli (I wouldn't either, but Phil Dawson?). Safety Abram Elam is up for the chop as well, along with RB Mike Bell, CB Eric Wright and WR Chansi Stuckey, plus others. In the draft the Browns pick at number 6 overall. Needs range from a deep threat wide receiver, to a decent tight end, to D-line, to Linebacker, to cornerback and safety. So yeah, not an envious task by any means. It's anyones guess where they'll go, but Nick Fairely might be near the top of their board. In 2011, don't expect much from the Browns. No really, don't. If they go 0-16 I'll just shrug my shoulders and say "at least they scored a few touchdowns". The Browns were undergoing a rebuilding phase, but now that they've dumped the Head Coach that was leading the rebuild and have lost their D-coordinator (Rob Ryan) to the Cowboys (they're now guided defensively by Dick Jauron), I'd say that the team is headed for a 2011 meltdown. It's not going to be pretty. Not at all. Pittsburgh Steelers: So close, but so far. Sort of. It almost seems like tradition now for the Steelers to be in the Super Bowl. I wouldn't be shocked if in the next couple of years the NFL becomes like an episode of Gladiators, where each season a new team comes to challenge the Gladiators for their crown. And let us not forget, they played the first four games minus their starting QB, who then spent the rest of the season getting the crapped kicked out of him. Of course James Harrison made up for it, clocking up fines like they were touchdowns for illegal hits left, right and center. 2011 then will need to start with solidity on the offensive line. Ah. OT Willie Colon. Gone (He was shit anyway. Get it? Colon? Shit? Chortle, chortle). OG Trai Essex, gone. OT Jonathan Scott, gone. That's three down from among the offensive line already, before the wicked mistress of injury works her inevitable charms. Joining the above into unrestricted free agency, which to be fair isn't necessarily a guarantee you'll leave (unless you happen to be good), are; DE Nick Eason, LB Keyaron Fox, CB's Ike Taylor and William Gay, and RB Mewelde Moore (among others). That's five players right there that I wouldn't mind having on my team. In particular, Moore is badly under rated as a running back, as is Ike Taylor as a corner. I could see someone like Rex Ryan over at the Jets swooping on Taylor to fill his roster hole at corner now that Cromartie is on the way out. And to be fair, Taylor could do it and do it a lot cheaper than Cromartie. Overall the Steelers head into the draft in pretty darn good shape. They pick 31st overall being the Super Bowl runners up, and their needs are pretty slim. Cornerback, especially if they can't get either Taylor or Gay to return. Maybe a rangey free safety would go down well. A speedy receiver to replace Santonio Holmes would be handy. But knowing the Steelers they'll do something boring, safe, and ultimately of very sound judgement like taking an offensive linemen who has inexplicably slipped down to them. In 2011 then, plenty to be hopeful for. The O-line is going to be even more suspect than before and the secondary will be a little shaky, but I'd expect a wild card slot at the very minimum. That's the thing about the Steelers, they're built for the long haul. Damn them.

Not watching the game. Having a bud.

Damn it!!! You'll find out why in a bit. First, Joe Flacco has spoken out now about the firing of QB coach Jim Zorn. Basically he's not happy and considers the firing an attack on himself, basically along the lines of "if you're firing the QB coach, then there must be a problem with the QB". Which is a fair point. What's even fairer to point out is that Flacco has had a statistically very good year by his standards. He finished 7th for regular season passer rating. Tied at 10th for completion percentage. Tied 9th for yards per pass. Tied 10th for touchdowns. He threw less interceptions than Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. All this behind an O-line that gave up the second most sacks in the league. The Ravens as a team won 12 games this year in the regular season. Only the Falcons and Patriots won more, with the Steelers being the only other team that tied that record. That's 3 teams out of the remaining 31 that finished equal or better. That hardly sounds like a team that is in dire need of a new QB Coach. But at least The Ravens had the courtesy of finishing the season before they began to pull themselves apart at the seams. The Packers are attempting it while headed into the Super Bowl. The fiasco over the team photo is gradually starting to build up to epic proportions. For those not in the know, this basically started with a moan from LB Nick Barnett that players on injured reserve would be left out of the teams official Super Bowl photo. The team said tough. Then TE Jermichael Finley decided to join the argument along with Barnett, and after a while the team relented. Then Head Coach Mike McCarthy said that it was a whole lot of fuss about nothing, that as usual the press had stoked the fire unnecessarily, and that is was really a non-issue for the team. Then Aaron Rodgers did a Rex Ryan by putting his foot in his mouth and saying that the players on IR should rehab with the team instead of down in Arizona, then maybe they would be considered a part of it. He's right, but that's not the point. When your Head Coach says let's be quiet and move on, then do so. Barnett and Finley are still yapping it up on Twitter. All in all, the whole thing is silly. What the Packers should be worrying about, and hoping doesn't happen, is the fact that it could distract the team away from it's bigger mission, namely winning the Super Bowl. Now, back to my opening remark. Basically I have been studiously (learning long words) watching game clips and the like to get a feel for this years rookie class ahead of the 2011 draft. One person that caught my eye was QB Christian Ponder, in particular for his smooth and flowing footwork. My plan was to write a post tonight (this one) extolling the virtues of Mr. Ponder, in the hope that his performance at the Senior Bowl would leave me looking rather smug and incredibly insightful. Except of course that the Senior Bowl was played today and for some inexplicable reason I missed that fact (and subsequently the game). Turns out Ponder was the games MVP and my praise for him would have looked exceptionally far sighted and left me in a sickening state of smugness. Ah well. You'll just have to take my word for it, I think highly of Ponder. But who else? Early candidates for my 2011 rookie watch list (bearing in mind I've got a ton of players still to look at): - Cameron Jordan, DE, - DeMarco Murray, RB, - Drake Nevis, DT, - Gabe Carimi, OT, - Jeff Maehl, WR, - Kellen Moore, QB, - Mike Hartline, QB, - Randall Cobb, WR, - Rodney Hudson, OG, - Ryan Kerrigan, DE, - Jabaal Sheard, DE, - Christian Ponder, QB, - Adrian Clayborn, DE, - DeAndre McDaniel, S, - Mark Herzlich, LB, - Johnny Patrick, CB, - Titus Young, WR, - Prince Amukamara, CB, - Ryan Mallet, QB, As you've probably guessed by now, I've studied various defensive linemen and quarterbacks and been a little slow elsewhere, but it's picking up. I have a bit more free time in the next week to really get cracking with this, although on the downside I can see, peering as I am into my crystal ball, that I'm probably not going to have sufficient time to sit down and watch all the coverage of the 2011 combine. That for me is a huge blow because it was through that coverage that people like Kendrick Lewis along with many others came to shine in 2010. Boo hoo. Anyway. That's your lot for today. Obviously at some point in the coming week I'll be taking a look at the Super Bowl match up, hopefully before it's actually played. I'm also planning on beginning the review of all the 2010 teams and looking ahead to where they might be in 2011. Till next time.... I dunno. Find some way to amuse yourselves. Read a book. Watch a bit of TV. Have a bud.

Divisional round part 2

Wow. Just...... wow. Baltimore Ravens 24 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 31: At halftime it looked like it was all over. For a while there I was thinking to myself "All the those pundits, they nailed it. The Ravens are walking this one." But you just don't count the Steelers down and out that easy. No sir. The Ravens under went a second half implosion upon which the Steelers suddenly pounced to win it. A rough and tumble game, with hits and at times punches (and even a head butt) thrown back and forth, this rivalry game lived up to his hype 10x over. The only thing that didn't stand the test of expectation was the scoreline, which soared to unknown heights for this clash. Not that the defenses didn't have good games. The Ravens D put up six sacks, 6 tackles for loss, 8 QB hits, 5 passes defended and 2 forced fumbles. Terrell Suggs alone reaped 3 sacks, 2 tackles for loss, 2 QB hits and a forced fumble. The Steelers D were not to be out done though. 5 sacks, 7 tackles for a loss, 4 QB hits, an interception, 8 passes defended and a forced fumble. James Harrison led the way with 3 sacks, 3 tackles for loss, 2 QB hits and 2 passes defended. Joe Flacco was held to just 16/30 for 125 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Ben Roethlisberger did only a little better, with 19/32 for 226 yards and 2 TD's. Neither teams ground game found much life, as could be expected given the respective defenses, with Ray Rice being held to 32 yards and a touchdown from 12 carries (seriously, why only 12 carries when you were leading this game comfortably at one point?) and Rashard Mendenhall leading the Steelers with 20 carries for 46 yards and 2 touchdowns. Ultimately the Ravens killed themselves. Despite leading 21 to 7 at half time Rice only carried the ball 6 times in the second half. Are the Ravens taking the Fu...reakin' piss? 6 carries? What was I saying just last week about the Chiefs not sticking with hot hand Jamaal Charles? For the sake of Matt Cassel? Now you're telling me that the Ravens rate Joe Flacco over Ray Rice? That's horseshit. Someone in Baltimore obviously has a king sized hard on for Flacco and it potentially just cost their team a place in the AFC Championship game. "Know Thyself". I'm seriously considering renaming this blog after that quote. Congratulations to the Steelers for a very strong win. They progress to the championship game that will be played either a) in New England, should they beat the Jets tomorrow, or b) in Pittsburgh, should the Jets be victorious. Green Bay Packers 48 @ Atlanta Falcons 21: When John Kuhn ran in for a TD to tie the game at 14 a piece, it was looking like a classic shoot out might be in the making. The Falcons then drove the field, but Matt Ryan sold his receiver short (who then slipped trying to come back to the ball) and Tramon Williams picked off the pass in the endzone. Then the Packers went down the field themselves and took the 21-14 lead. Then they put the game away at 28-14. The Falcons were trying to pull off a desperately needed drive to get back 3 points before half time when Matt "Matty Ice" Ryan suddenly melted in the burning sun of the Packers rising corner Tramon Williams. The Falcons called a play that required Roddy White to run an out to the left. Unfortunately he ran at an angle towards the sideline right from the start, tipping Williams off. Williams had the position on White and Ryan should have just chucked it away or gone somewhere else. Instead he forced it and Williams returned it for a touchdown. The Packers took a lead the Falcons would never touch. But the Packers weren't done. They came back in the second half and drove multiple nails into the Falcons coffin, with two more touchdowns and two field goals. Aaron Rodgers finished the game with a stunning 31/36 for 366 yards and 3 TD's. James Starks carried 25 times for 66 yards. Greg Jennings had 8 catches for 101 yards. The Falcons numbers pale in comparison. Matt Ryan; 20/29 for 186 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs. Michael Turner; 10 carries for 39 yards and a TD. Mike Jenkins; 6 catches for 67 yards. On defense the Packers led a riot. 5 sacks, 6 tackles for loss, 6 QB hits, 2 interceptions, 2 passes defended and a forced fumble. LB Clay Matthews alone accounted for 2 sacks, 2 tackles for loss and 2 QB hits. It ended as a massacre. And this is precisely what I was talking about with Green Bay's potential. All season long they've had this capability within them, to walk onto the field and utterly dominate an opponent, which made their losses in the regular season all the more frustrating for Packers fans. Finally they seem to be getting into the swing of things just at the right moment. Next up is a guaranteed road trip to face the winner of the Seahawks/Bears game. Which reminds me... Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears: Ok Seattle, you knocked off the Saints. Now can you pull off a miracle twice and beat the Bears too? Again the Seahawks have that punchers chance of knocking the Bears out. But it will be much tougher this time around. This is a Bears D that is basically built to stop teams like Seattle; playing a mix of true cover 2 and "Tampa 2", the Seahawks might find Bears defenders dropping into all the different places where they'd otherwise like to put the ball. The Bears pass rush is vastly superior to the Saints, with out the need to bring five man pressures on most plays and finally the Bears defense will be a much tougher nut to crack on the ground. There's a risk here of talking about the Bears much like most people were talking about the Saints last week, but the simple fact of life is that this Bears team is much stronger defensively than the Saints, albeit with a little less punch on offense. Yes, the much maligned Jay Cutler has the chance to finally win his playoff stripes. All he has to do is handle the Seahawks pass rush, which is a lot easier than it sounds, and then get the ball to playmakers like Devin Hester and Johnny Knox, which is also a lot easier than it sounds. But I'm leaning towards the side that says well done to Seattle for coming this far, but you're probably not going any further. The combo of defensive ends Israel Idonije and Julius Peppers is unlike anything the Seahawks line has seen for a while, and given the pretty shoddy nature of the Seahawks O-line it might very well get ugly, quickly. But then that's what everyone was saying about the game with the Saints last week. The winner will host Green Bay in the NFC Championship game. New York Jets @ New England Patriots: Let's face it, this game is probably more hotly anticipated than even the Ravens/Steelers game was. For that we have to thank the big mouth of Rex Ryan and his Jets players who decided that rather than just leaving the Hornets nest alone, they would instead endeavour to poke it repeatedly with the biggest stick they could find until it fell off the tree and split. Probably even more entertaining was listening to Wes Welker slip as many foot references into his press conference as possible (I believe he hit eleven in just under 8 mins). But the time is at hand now to find out who has put their best foot forward and who's been putting their foot in their mouth. On paper, it looks like the Jets are about to get brutally crushed beneath Belichicks boot (and Super Bowl ring(s)) much as they did in week 13 (45-3). Just the other day I put up the pictorial proof on this very site that Darrelle Revis can be beaten. We don't need pictures to tell us that Antonio Cromartie can beaten, or that he is a little, shall we say, "tackle shy". Probably the weakest link, and Rex must know it, is quarterback Mark Sanchez. His only stroke of luck is that the Patriots haven't exactly been the masters of the blitz this year. Otherwise he could be in for a tough day. This Patriots secondary has already shown a taste for interceptions and any flutter balls from Sanchez will be in dangerous territory with the Pats lurking around every corner. Oh, and this before we get to the small matter of the Patriots offense. Tom Brady. Deion Branch. Wes Welker. Aaron Hernandez. Rob Gronkowski. Danny Woodhead. Julian Edelman. BenJarvus-Green Ellis. Brandon Tate. Should I stop now? The Patriots offense is playing as well as any in the league has this season. Drive after drive, like a methodical robotic machine, the Patriots have driven down the field time and again, with Brady firing the ball in all directions and ably supported (for a change) by the solid running game. This is genuinely a scary offensive team that gives Defensive coordinators nightmares. But are they unbeatable? No. Not by a long shot. Aside from regular season losses pre-Randy Moss trade, the Patriots were also taken to the wire by a Packers team that was missing Matt Flynn. The key was physical football on offense that kept the ball away from Brady, and a decent pass rush on offense. People forget that under constant, heavy pressure, Brady is just as susceptible to mistakes as you or eye in our daily work (well, almost). And it turns out that those things are precisely what the Jets specialise in. Their ground game is infinitely better than their passing attack and Rex Ryan is one of the acknowledged masters of the blitz in this league. He also showed his tactical prowess last week against the Colts, leaving gaping holes in his line for the Colts to run at, knowing full well that the ball out of Peyton Mannings hands was a good thing and that the Colts could not sustain any kind of successful rushing attack for the duration of the game. What will Rex Ryan come up with for the Patriots? I'm not sure, but you can bet that Bill Belichick is standing on the opposite sideline with an equally impressive game plan in hand. It's going to be fun to watch, and even more fun if the Jets lose. I'm not sure if the slice of the humble pie they'll have to eat will fit inside the state of New York. Plus, who's going to foot the bill for it?

Divisional Round preview (part 1)

So something has just occurred to me. After waking up and recovering from a night spent celebrating (read: drinking) due to my friends send off party for his old house (his home for some 20+ years now), I've just realised that I didn't do my preview for Saturday's games. If I'm quick, I might just be able to squeeze them in before kick off (4:30pm ET/8:00pm ET). Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers: This is the battle everyone has been talking about. The Ravens and the Steelers, clashing once more for playoff glory and the right to face the winner of the Jets/Patriots game in the AFC Championship. Oh, and there is also the small matter of one of the most intense rivalries in the NFL. Not only do the two teams go back and forth every year for bragging rights in the AFC North, but you get the distinct impression that there's a point of personal pride among two notoriously tough defenses as to who will give up the least ground, who will hit harder and who will weather that punishment the longest. This it would appear, is often just as important as the score. Certainly Baltimore would love nothing more than to pounce on their rivals today. Having won the first clash this season, the Ravens then went down at home in week 13 in probably one of the toughest and most entertaining defensive battles the league has seen in a while. It was a defensive play, Troy Polamalu coming free on a blitz, that forced the big play upon which the game ultimately hinged. Now the trash talk has been flying, especially from the Ravens side, as Baltimore looks to gain any edge it can coming into this game. It appears they've even been so successful that they've convinced a lot of people in the media that they're the favourites for this one now. Baltimore has, if nothing else, become the fashionable pick for this game. And there's a lot of reasons why that might be true. They have a truly excellent running back in Ray Rice. As a ball carrier his cutting ability and vision might just be unparalleled in the NFL right now. As a pass receiver he has a knack for finding space as he works against linebackers with his acceleration. In pass protection.... yeah, we'll leave that. The old axiom "if you're not going to say something nice, say nothing at all" applies here. They also have Joe Flacco, one of the better quarterbacks to enter the NFL in the last few years. Flacco has had his struggles, but he also had his moments. I fear that Flacco holds onto the ball too long for my liking and seems to struggle with his consistency, but he also has those periods where he finds a groove (or a lot of TE Todd Heap) and starts moving the chains. When he does that consistently, the Ravens have a great shot at winning. Every QB however needs an O-line and receivers, to which end the Ravens are so-so. Their O-line is.... "if you're not going to say anything nice." Well it's ok. I think sometimes people give them a little too much credit in the running game. Without the backs they have, I'm not sure Baltimore's rushing attack would be as productive. In pass protection the Ravens are also very up and down. One minute they're solid, then the next they're parting like the red sea. I don't trust them, lets put it that way. I do trust Anquan Boldin and the Ravens receiver corps though. They've managed to subtly avoid investing any youth in that group this season and it's had mixed results. They're usually pretty dependable pass catchers and also crisp route runners. They help Flacco by positioning themselves well in relation to covering defenders and they fight for every pass thrown their way. The trouble is, they're not exactly spring chickens, and of all the things a defense worries about, having the top blown off their coverage is not one of them. But who do I trust the most? The Ravens D. Let me read off some names for you; Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, Haloti Ngata, Ed Reed. Those are all players who have a case for being the number one at their position and that's just the tip, the tip, of the Ravens defensive iceberg. This unit has consistently shown it's pedigree throughout the season. Ngata fills holes on the line, breaks double teams and moves laterally down the LOS scrimmage like no other athlete on any NFL field currently. Ray Lewis fills the slots behind him always seeming to pop up in the right place as he reads the flow of the backs. He has a knack in pass coverage, especially when the intended play breaks down, of finding the QB's safety valve and coming up with the big play. Terrell Suggs is Terrell Suggs. Speed, power, great use of the arms, determination and relentless pursuit. These are all things that you don't ever have to hope you'll gte from Suggs, they're things that you know you will get from Suggs. Without question. And what's the best way to compliment a pass rushing beast, a fiend of the backfield? With a center fielder type safety who has range that sometimes defies belief and an instinct for making plays on the ball. Ed Reed is the perfect example of a defensive player whose experience and positioning can make up for the loss of a yard or two in pace. So with all that said, the Ravens are looking pretty good for the win now right? Don't be so sure. There's the small matter of the Steelers to contend with. You know, the Pittsburgh Steelers. That team, black and yellow uniforms, from Pennsylvania. A few Super Bowl rings I think. Maybe one or two. Or was it six? I forget. All I know is this; people are grossly underestimating the Steelers. Baltimore are good, but looking around right now and listening to everyone in collective press giving their opinions, you'd be forgiven for thinking that the Ravens had already got this one in the bag and were making enquiries to various hotels ahead of the AFC Championship game. Well let's just remind ourselves who the Steelers are; QB Ben Roethlisberger. Off field indiscretions aside (and don't forget that Roethlisberger has never been charged with anything), Roethlisberger is one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. That's just an irrefutable, inescapable fact. The guy has a cannon arm, he's big, tough and leads the league in highlight reel worthy escapes from the pocket. Like Flacco he has tendency to hold onto the ball far too long, but unlike Flacco he has developed the necessary skill set to counter that. Probably one of the most important of those skills is his ability to understand when even he, the current master of pocket escapology, is beaten. Whether it's throwing the ball away, flipping it away or just eating the sack, these are the skills that guys like Tony Romo and in particular Eli Manning haven't learnt, and probably never will judging by their performances in recent years. This gives the Steelers a huge weapon, as always. It provides them with the ability to make big plays deep down the field, while mitigating some of the risk involved with such "broken" plays. Given that they have Mike Wallace on their side, a deep threat receiver who has the potential to blast the roof off the the Ravens secondary, and you have a serious weapon for the Steelers to exploit. Their rushing attack isn't too shabby either. Rashard Mendenhall, Mewelde Moore, Issac Redman, Jonathan Dwyer. These are all good running backs who can make a difference in this game. Given the expected low scoring nature of the contest and the importance that field position could play, having a corps of solid running backs could be a serious advantage to the Steelers offense. A weakness could be their O-line. For whatever reason, Flozell Adams on the right hand side has been a real weak link. Maybe it's because he's more used to playing on the left, but whatever the problem is, it's a big one. The loss of Willie Colon and Max Starks has been huge for the Steelers. On the bright side, rookie Maurkice Pouncey (watch list) has done very well anchoring the line from the center spot and OG Chris Kemoeatu has played some excellent football too. Overall though, there is a certain vulnerability to this unit that the Ravens pass rush will look to exploit. On defense, things get much, much brighter. I'm not even going to ring off some names because a) you should know them all by now and b) there is too many to get through. The Steelers D is legitmately very, very deep at D-line and linebacker, although certain areas of the secondary give them the odd scare from time to time. But the numbers tell it all. The Steelers lead the entire league through the regular season in almost every single important defensive category. They are simply one of the finest units in the history of the NFL. Not just solid all round, which they are, but also packed with play making potential. This is why I find it so odd that hardly anyone fancies the Steelers, especially given that they're the home side. It'll be a close game, very close, and just like that week 13 meeting it might be that one big play makes all the difference. Given that knowledge you'd have to say that the Steelers have an offense less likely to flinch and give up the big turnover, while their defense is probably better prepared thanks to its depth of talent to force a big turnover out of the Ravens. If I was picking the game, a futile exercise that I've long since given up on, I imagine I would have picked the Steelers. But the Ravens aren't being hotly tipped without reason. As we've seen they do have a lot of talent on board and this one will might well go right down to the last possession. Enjoy it, because it's going to be one hell of a playoff game. Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons: Last week the Packers played in a game that was touted by some as the NFC Championship game come early. This week the Packers are playing in a game touted by some as the NFC Championship game come early. I'm detecting a running theme here, somewhere. My Spider sense tells me that a lot of people might believe the Packers are destined to play in the NFC Championship game. Or possibly three of them. Which wouldn't come as a surprise. The Packers are very, very good. Up and down that team, they have all kinds of goodness. Offense, defense, even the kicking game. They've soldiered on despite numerous injuries to key players and now here they are, in the divisional game. The problem is really one of potential. The Packers started the season with the potential to win the NFC North and go all the way to the Super Bowl. But unfortunately, potential is not always the most reliable indicator of success. It's the prime reason I've given up making picks, because picking teams is always based on potential. You're always trying to predict what will happen based on the knowledge that certain teams do certain things very well. I expected the Chiefs to come out running the ball from start to finish against the Ravens because of the success they've had doing that this season. They had the potential to dominate the clock and make life very difficult for the Ravens. Instead, they abandoned their running game and were cleaned off the field. This is the worry for the Packers. With that D-line and linebacking corps, they have the potential to cause the Falcons rushing game a lot of problems. They have the potential to put Matt Ryan under a lot of potential and their revamped secondary for 2010 has the potential to shut down Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez et al. But potential is an uncertain thing. Having beat the Eagles and creamed the Bills, the Packers were set for a week 3 pounding of the Bears, who had struggled to beat the Lions and Cowboys in the previous two weeks. Instead the Bears came out on top 20-17. Then Green Bay scraped past Detroit themselves, 28-26. Then somehow, god knows how, the Packers fell to the Redskins in week 5. Thus we've learnt that the Packers are great providing they actually do all the things that we expect them to. When they don't they fall flat on their faces. Despite all that defensive quality, despite Aaron Rodgers being a top QB in the NFL, despite a WR corps that's as good as any in the league, the Packers are more than capable of throwing it all away. Which is handy for the Falcons. They too have an excellent offense, led by Matt Ryan and supported by the able cast of Michael Turner, Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White. Their defense is strong, with LB Curtis Lofton as the center piece. Their pass rush was under rated coming into the season but now the names John Abraham and Kroy Biermann are synonymous with getting into the offensive backfield. Brent Grimes is possibly one of the best (and most highly under rated) corners in the league today. But the Falcons have been beneficiaries this season of some less than stellar play at times. Trust me, as a 49ers fans I watched in horror as we seemed to have the Falcons done and dusted, till a fantastic play combined with some rank stupidity led to a fumble that gave the ball back to the Falcons and set them up for the winning drive. At times they've been lucky, but when lady luck smiles on them, they pounce. In short, if you mess about with the Falcons, it will come back to haunt you. And that's what I think Green Bay fans should be concerned about and Atlanta fans should be highly optimistic about. It might only take one slip. It might only take one pick. It might be a fumble or a sack at an inopportune moment, but the Falcons are more than capable of winning it. If Green Bay can play their "A game", then I fear the Falcons impressive season will come to an end this Saturday night. But if they wince, flinch or slip up in any other way, it could be curtains for the Packers. The Falcons have it in themselves to win this. They just need Green Bay to open the door a little for them, then they can do the rest themselves. So even though the hype has been all focused on Green Bay, don't be surprised if you see the red and black of Atlanta in the NFC Championship game next week.

Sundays recap and more uses of the word 'decertify'

Better late than never they always say. Unless of course your commuting a sentence to a prisoner on death row, in which case late is probably worse than never. On that note, let's recap Sunday's action. Baltimore Ravens 30 @ Kansas City Chiefs 7 I needed to check something after the game just to be sure and indeed on inspecting the official game book I was right. Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles did only get 2 carries in the second half. This is the same Jamaal Charles who carried the ball 7 times for 87 yards and a TD in the first half. That's an average of 12.4 yards per carry. This is why I have absolutely no sympathy for the Chiefs, their offensive Coordinator Charlie Weis or Head Coach Todd Haley. I understand, trust me I do, that the nuances of coaching are not always apparent to the naked eye or to the cold data of the end of game statistics. But I also know this much; Jamaal Charles should have carried the ball more than just twice in the second half. It's ludicrous. It's absolutely inexcusable. Coaches are incredibly fond, as are most professional people, of believing that their job is so difficult it couldn't possibly be done by a lay person. Of course in most professions the technical details and tweaks are beyond most untrained individuals. But there also things about coaching, like a number of professions, that are so damn obvious even the least trained and only partially knowledgeable person could point out. Like Jamaal Charles being the Keystone of the Chiefs offense for instance. Or the fact that despite some impressive performances this season, there is absolutely no way in hell that Matt Cassel should be considered a Pro Bowl QB by any sane person. Good, I can live with. But Pro Bowl? Give me a damn break! Actually Cassel did, by going 9/18 for 70 yards and throwing 3 interceptions. Ugh! Charles ended the day with 9 carries for 82 yards and a TD. Yes, he lost yards, thanks to two bad plays. Thomas Jones, the other high quality back for the Chiefs received just 5 carries for 15 yards. It's just such an absolute joke. But it had started with promise (sort of) when the Chiefs got after the Ravens QB Joe Flacco in the first quarter and Tamba Hali (remember him from the preview yesterday?) got the sack and forced fumble. Hali ended the game with 2 sacks, a forced fumble, an additional QB hit and a pass defended. But he's not good enough for the Pro Bowl apparently (I'll let it go in 2012). Linebacker Jovan Belcher also had 1.5 sacks for the Chiefs, along with 2 tackles for loss and 2 further QB hits, while Eric Berry (watch list) recorded 4 of the Chiefs 6 passes defended, including a TD saving dive. But anyway, back to the Chiefs offense. After recovering the fumble the Chiefs got the ball and on the second play of the drive the Chiefs ran the old stretch play to the left, sending Charles rumbling 41 yards for the TD. It was only his second carry of the game. He followed it up later with carries of 11, 8 and 9 yards. Then he rumbled 4 yards and was stripped by Terrence Cody (yes, Mount Cody, the 350 odd pound Defensive Tackle) who fell on top of him to finish the play! But that's ok. Explosive runners like Charles occasionally fumble the ball. That's just one of those things you have to live with. Especially when Charles came back on the Chiefs next possession and put his bad play behind him by running for 11 yards. Then nothing. That was it. Apart from his 2 carries in the second half, that's all Charles got. How is that possible. How is that a back whose shortest run was 4 yards doesn't get to touch the ball more in the second half? And you can argue that the Chiefs ended up behind and needed to get back in the game, but judging by his average Charles was the best shot the Chiefs had! It just makes no sense to me. Like the Ravens obsession with making Joe Flacco throw the ball 25 times before half time every game. At least this time Flacco actually started to make something happen, finishing the game 25/34 for 265 yards and 2 touchdowns. Ray Rice had 17 carries for 57 yards. Willis McGahee added another 44 yards and a TD on 10 carries. Terrell Suggs was the Ravens difference maker on defense. 2 sacks, 2 tackles for loss and 4 quarterback hits helped to keep the Chiefs offense in check, at least outside of that brief period in the first half when Jamaal Charles was absolutely hanging the Ravens D out to dry. Ray Lewis also pitched in as you might expect, with a sack, tackles for loss, a QB hit and forced fumble. All in all, the Chiefs were their own worst enemy. According to the well known and much respected Ancient Greek Writer Pausanias, there was an inscription made in the forecourt of the Temple of Apollo, at Delphi. It simply translates as "Know Thyself". This of course echo's the famous saying by Chinese General, Politician and Strategist, Sun Tzu; "So it is said that if you know others and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles." (Page 82, The Art of War, translated by Thomas Cleary, Shambhala Dragon Editions). The Chiefs may or may not have known the enemy, but they appeared to know little about themselves and as a result a glorious opportunity to energise the Kansas fan base with a playoff win was lost, through no fault but their own. That means that Baltimore now heads to Heinz Field to play Pittsburgh in what promises to be a great rivalry game, while the Jets head to Foxborough for a similarly chop licking encounter. Green Bay Packers 21 @ Philadelphia Eagles 16 The NFL's golden boy is no more. Well, he's not in the playoffs anymore at least. It was a close run thing though. With just a little over 30 seconds remaining, Vick threw the ball up into the endzone where it was picked off by Tramon Williams. One of the key components in the rebirth of the Packers defense this year cemented his reputation by sealing the win. A win that showed the Packers still have some versatility on offense. The worry coming into this game was that they would become one dimensional in the playoffs, unable to relieve the pressure on Aaron Rodgers and the passing game. Rookie RB James Starks put that to bed with 23 carries for 123 tough yards. This helped to keep the chains moving and set up Aaron Rodgers to go 18/27 for 180 yards and 3 touchdowns. Hitting 9 different receivers over the course of the game, Rodgers did enough with the passing game to help secure the win. The Packers also owe a lot to their defense. Clay Matthews and co. pulled off some vital sacks and of course won the game with the sole interception of Vick. In the end the league MVP candidate completed just 20/36 for for 292 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. On the ground he mustered just 33 yards and a sneaked TD on 8 carries. LeSean McCoy was held to 46 yards off 12 carries. DeSean Jackson had 2 catches for 47 yards. The Eagles defense managed only 2 sacks. In a way, it was a bit disappointing. I was kind of expecting the loser of this game to go down in a blaze of glory, on the bad end of a 45-42 shootout. Instead we got quite a conservative score from two teams well known for lighting up the opposition and the Eagles dropped out of the playoffs in something of a damp squib. That now means that the Packers progress to face Atlanta in the Georgia Dome, while Seattle will travel to Soldier Field to face Chicago. Now in other news: -- According to NBC's Mike Florio, Mike Mayock is a Genius. The qualification for this prestigious award? Not writing off the Seahawks as many had done and instead giving them a "fighters chance" in their playoff game against the Saints. My question then is thus; given that I too gave the Seahawks a fighters chance, does that make me a genius in Florio's eyes as well? Especially given that my rookie watch list scored a few more hits than Mayock did with the draft. Wheres my big TV contract? -- We finish today with another article from ProFootballTalk.com, who finally seem to have realised something that I pointed out a long time ago; the NFLPA can prevent a lockout anytime they wish. To quote specifically from their article; "Of course, the ability of the union to decertify and block a lockout also makes a lockout less likely. Union officials continuously gloss over that fact. NFLPA spokesman George Atallah has said that the union prefers to work out a new Collective Bargaining Agreement over decertifying." Whatever the NFLPA may "prefer", the fact still remains that any talk of a lockout is utter nonsense fabricated by the NFLPA. They have within their power the ability to block a lockout at any time and so, if indeed a lockout occurs in 2011, it will be the fault of the players and not the owners. I don't particularly like defending the owners because let's face it, they're the ones who charge you $30 to park and $100 to go and watch pre-season games. But I also appreciate two things: 1) Honesty is more important than prejudices, 2) The reason the owners charge so much money for parking fees is because the players wages are so damn inflated.

Wildcard Weekend (part 2)

New Orleans Saints 36 @ Seattle Seahawks 41 Ho-ly-sh... you get the idea. I said it. I didn't think they'd do it but the Seahawks just came out, let it all go and it paid off big time. They dug into their bag of tricks and came out with some unusual stuff. Fake screens, hook-and-spin routes etc, with a healthy dose of shocking defense by the Saints. But the real point that should be made, the real winner here, was the determination and sheer effort by the Seahawks players. We often talk about these kind of things on blogs, in books and on TV. You see hokey films about pulling together and going all out for one another, but nobody ever seems to put the words into practice. You see people try, then give up. Well the Seahawks didn't. They gave us a shining example of mental strength pushing the body to new levels and how teamwork & hustle can truly make a big difference in football. Marshawn Lynch's TD run was a great demonstration of that as QB Matt Hasselbeck was among those Seahawks racing down the field to help their team mate get the score. We can't forget completely about the losers though. We have to take our collective hats off I think (gentlemen, if you please) to the New Orleans Saints offense. Without his starting running backs Drew Brees was forced to throw 39/60 (sixty!!) for 404 yards and 2 TD's with no interceptions. It was a huge effort and let's not overlook the fact that traditionally speaking, when you score 36 points, you have a tendency to win a lot of games. So I wouldn't begrudge the Saints offense for shooting some killer looks at the defense who were about as stout, rugged and effective as a drill bit made from chocolate. The tackling, the coverage, the whole works. It was just all around poor defense. I dunno, maybe defensive coordinator Greg Williams was distracted this week with potential job offers on the table, but man, that defense just wasn't the same as it was last year. They looked like the 2008 group that stunk it up on a regular basis. So now the Seahawks progress to the divisional round. Up next? If Green Bay wins the other NFC Wildcard game on Sunday, then the Seahawks head to Chicago. If the Eagles win, the Seahawks have a date with Atlanta. In the meantime the Seahawks and their fans have time to boogey: New York Jets 17 @ Indianapolis Colts 16 Some how, some way, the Jets did it. Mark Sanchez was awful. 18/31 for 189 yards and an INT. He was throwing loose passes all over the field and was lucky not to get picked off more than just the once. But fate has a funny way of twisting at this time of year. The Colts ran the ball. And kept running it. I know that I've often suggested that the Colts might benefit from running a little more, but this isn't quite what I had in mind. Actually, scrap that. This is nothing like what I had in mind. 27 runs? By the colts? And Manning threw just 18/26? What? The most mind boggling for me was the Colts approach on third down. When I think of predominantly pass first teams like the Colts running the ball, I'm thinking first and second down. Maybe the occasional sneaky run on third down. But to go for a near all out attack on third down using the run? No, surely not. It doesn't matter if I had one yard to go, two, three, four, or eight, whatever, I would be trusting that down and our offenses continued possession of the ball to Peyton Manning. I certainly wouldn't be overly keen to be handing the ball off to Dominic Rhodes. Joseph Addai I can live with, but I'd much rather see Addai in pass protection or running a route on 3rd down, with my golden boy surveying the field and doing his thing. Not so the Jets, who apparently got sick and tired of Sanchez throwing the ball to invisible receivers and thus decided to break out their rushing attack for a change. You remember right, that same rushing attack that allowed them to somewhat protect Sanchez last season and helped them to get to the AFC Championship game? Yeah that one. LaDanian Tomlinson. That's all I'm saying. Ok, I'll say a little more. 16 carries, 82 yards, 2 TD's. The guy looks fresh and ready to roll in these playoffs. Just when everyone has smacked Tomlinson down once more, along come the Jets to remind everyone that essentially the offensive line dictates a big part of how many yards a running back gets. Thus guys like Tomlinson have little to fear. He still has the burst to hit a hole and fall forwards for yards, possibly for another 2 or 3 years providing there is no major upheaval in the Jets O-line. Now finally I'd like to end on a complaint, or two, because God knows I love me a moan. The first issue in question is the "roughing the kicker" called against the Colts. I appreciate that under the letter of the law, that was a penalty. I'm not disputing that. But what I will dispute is that in the offseason that rule needs to be changed. If that degree of contact is what constitutes "roughing" in the modern world, then for the last 10 years or so, anytime I've ever got off a bus during the rush hour I've committed numerous fouls for "roughing". In my opinion, the Colts rusher was making an active attempt to pull up at the end and avoid any serious, hard hitting collision with the kicker. Or to put it another way, he could have just drilled the guys standing leg and left him in a crippled heap, but he didn't. Contact like this, while only a very small part of the game, helps to enforce the wider image that the NFL is turning "soft". If the league is going to continue to be as successful as it has been, it needs to hold onto the fans it has and that means reversing this trend of perceived or actual "softness" in the game. The second thing I want to bitch about is the Colts calling a timeout with 29 seconds left as the Jets were driving for the winning field goal. My question is simply; why? On the sidelines, Manning looked pissed off and I can sympathise with that. It set up a pass by Sanchez to Edwards on the next play, which set the Jets up for a 32-yard field goal to win the game. It just blows the mind sometimes. Do the Colts not have a plan for this? Why do team keep making these critical errors in time management, week after damn week? Given the huge salaries involved, as an owner I would be chewing glass right about now, wondering what in the hell I was forking out the big bucks for given that I could probably hire a high school coach to come in and manage the clock better than that, at far less expense. But enough complaining, at least for now. As the number six seed, the Jets will now go on to play Tom Brady and the Patriots. Maybe Rex was right? Maybe he does have a Super Bowl winning team at hand. I'll wait and see how Sanchez gets on first if that's ok everyone. And onto the preview of Sunday's games. Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs (1:00pm ET, CBS) (6:00pm GMT, Sky Sports 2) The Ravens at the Chiefs, as running game clashes with running game. What intrigues me, because I'm a sad git who gets intrigued by otherwise uninteresting things, is the style clash that will take place between the three main runners on Sunday. First we have Jamaal Charles of the Chiefs. Charles is all about the speed. In the open field he can light teams up just as easily as Chris Johnson of the Titans. Typically with Charles you'll see the Chiefs run a "stretch" style play, where the offensive line all moves in one direction at the snap, looking to get the jump on their respective D-linemen and seal them inside using what we call a "reach" block. The idea is to cutoff the defense, pin them inside and then let Charles go flying around the outside and up the field with his speed. Thomas Jones of the Chiefs is very different. Coming from the Jets last year and, if we're honest, getting a little long in the tooth right now, Jones is more of you inside style rusher. Typically you'll see the Chiefs start off moving in one direction, similar to the stretch play above, but with a tight end and/or a fullback coming back against the flow to help kick out defenders on the backside and create a void up the middle for Jones, where he can use his power, toughness and, let's face it, big brass balls to drive right through the heart of the defense and off to pay dirt. My favourite though is Ray Rice of the Ravens. Why? Because (shut up, I know) normally with running backs, their success is tied very closely to their offensive line. Or to put it another way, unless you happen by chance to be a ghost it's physically impossible to run through a wall of 300 pound offensive and defensive linemen standing shoulder to shoulder. This is the major problem that Chris Johnson has had in Tennessee this year. Every time they call a run the Titans O-line seems to get wadded up in a bunch, which is a win for the defense. With no gaps between the linemen, it makes it very easy for the linebackers to read the play. All they have to do is flow towards the gaps at the two ends of the bunch and boom, dead play. Coincidentally the Ravens D happens to be quite good at doing just that. But the thing with Ray Rice is, he seems to possess an extraordinary vision on such plays for finding the tiny little cracks in the defense. His lateral quickness combined with that vision allows Rice to to squirm through creases that other running backs can't, if they even see them in first place. Credit to Rice for that. But the question still lingers, who might win such a battle? Well if I'm honest, the Ravens appear have the advantage. We know both teams can run the ball and that both teams struggle a little when throwing, but the Ravens D gives them the clear edge. That's not to say that the Chiefs have a weak defense, but they're simply not the Ravens. They can both bring pressure on the quarterback and both teams have playmakers in the back end, but critically in what could prove to be a ground and pound game, the Ravens run defense has the edge. The Ravens finished the regular season as the number 5 defense against the run. The Chiefs came in at number 14. So if it turns out to be a grind 'em down style field position battle, you probably have to give Baltimore the advantage. There is hope however for the Chiefs. An early score could tempt the Ravens into throwing a little more and as we've seen this season they're pass protection still leaves something to be desired. That gives Tamba Hali the open shot he needs to get in and cause some havoc. Hali topped the AFC for sacks in the regular season with 14.5 (only DeMarcus Ware finished ahead of him in the NFC, with 15.5). Add to that the hidden effect of numerous QB hits and pressures which go largely unnoticed on the stat sheets (someone at one of the big networks needs to fix this), and you have a recipe for forcing Joe Flacco into some bad throws. The Chiefs have the people in the secondary to make Flacco pay, and so the Chiefs could be set up to pull off the next huge upset in the 2010 season Wildcard weekend. We'll see. The winner has a date lined up with the Steelers... Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles (4:30pm ET, FOX) (9:30pm GMT, Sky Sports 2) The Packers and the Eagles clash in what bizarrely many people are touting as the true NFC Championship game. I think the Falcons and Bears might have something to say about that (and the Seahawks I guess). Still though, it is a hell of a clash to be having in the wildcard weekend. Michael Vick, the NFL's golden ticket for redemption (and advertising revenues) up against Aaron Rodgers, the successor to Brett Favre. So how good are these teams? The Eagles destroyed the Redskins in a style that you would expect of a great team. They also produced the miracle at the New Meadowlands, coming back from almost certain defeat at the hands of what was a very strong Giants team (10-6 with one of the better defenses out there) to storm to victory. The Packers caliber is much more subtle. Consider that the Patriots are widely touted as the best team in the NFL right now, and that the Packers managed to run their game against the Patriots very close, all without the aid of starting QB Aaron Rodgers. 'The Pack' are also one of those rare teams that has great strength on both sides of the ball. They have a great offense that is more than capable of getting into a shootout with any team in the league. But on defense they are also pretty sound. The development of corners Tramon Williams and Sam Shields has had a huge impact for them. When you then consider that their front seven is up there among the best, easily at home alongside the Ravens and the Steelers, and you have a seriously solid all around team. Not quite the same story in Philadelphia. The Eagles have Mike Vick. They have DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy and James Harrison (don't knock the guy). But on defense it begins to get a little flimsy. While Trent Cole, Juqua Parker and Darryl Tapp form the backbone of a formidable pass rush, the Eagles have still been found wanting on the back end this season, and their rush defense has at times been very poor. All things considered I think the Packers have the edge going into this game, but as we've seen this season, not least in this wildcard weekend, anything is possible on any given Sunday. Could the X factor that is Michael Vick tip the balance? Will Aaron Rodgers simply stroll onto the field and tear apart the Eagles secondary? Maybe DeSean Jackson will have a few big run backs in the kicking game? Guess we'll all just have to grab a beer (Amaretto for me please), sit back, relax and tune in to what is proving to be one of the most intriguing seasons in recent memory. I'll be back tomorrow for a full recap.

Covering your backside

Jingle Bells! Jingle Bells! I hate Christmas. But in the spirit of generosity, giving and good will, I've taken time out from the nauseating, overly commercial spectacle that is Christmas and finally finished my article for the "Most Improved Analyst From a Major Network" award, otherwise known as the MIAFMN. And the winner is....... Michael Lombardi, of the NFL Network. I know. WTF? But it's true. My knock on him is that previously he's always tried to write articles from the perspective of an analyst, a commentator, a journalist or one of many other persona's that just doesn't fit, trying to do things he's not really well accustomed to. But as you can see in this article, when Lombardi sits down and writes from his experience as a former front office personnel guy, he makes a lot of sense. These articles tend to be a bit more cold and detached. There's no hype or gimmicks. He just tells the truth straight from the hip, as if he was briefing an owner on the current state of the NFL. The results are excellent and it offers an interesting perspective. But of course, nothing and nobody can be perfect. That applies to Lombardi as much as the rest of us. Just check out this video. Admittedly Lombardi places some blame on the Ravens protection scheme as a whole, but putting the pressure largely on Joe Falcco is wrong in my opinion. Particularly the criticism that Flacco didn't find his hot route quick enough is well off the mark. To demonstrate, I'll try and use some diagrams. Which now explains why it's taken so long to produce this article. Through the wonders of the "Print Screen" function and some dicking about with files, Jpeg's and God knows what else, I can now finally do some interesting diagrammatic analysis. It should be noted that all the images are screen captures taken from the NFL Networks "Playbook" show and there has been no editing afterwards of the images. So anyway, here we go. The problem with the play in question is that the Steelers have six men at the Line Of Scrimmage, ready to blitz, with a middle linebacker possibly making a 7th rusher. The Ravens obviously have their 5 linemen and they also have a tight end to the right and running back Ray Rice in the backfield. That's seven men to potentially pick up seven. Except the Ravens are using a 6 man protection, involving the lineman and the RB. The tight end is going to release. In the event of a heavy blitz, the Ravens are largely relying on the "hot" principle to pick up one of the blitzers. Now as you can see in the image below, Troy Polamalu is coming from the back side and eventually it will be him who makes the sack.

The "hot" route in this protection is to the tight end to the right. The Tight end is responsible for reading the defender over him. If that guy blitzes, then he breaks off his route and runs quickly into the flat. The quarterback is responsible for reading the linebacker, recognizing the blitz and then throwing the ball quickly to that man, as demonstrated in the next image.

As you can clearly see in the next picture, both the quarterback and the tight end make the right read. They see the blitz, the tight end breaks off into the flat and the quarterback Joe Flacco can clearly be seen starring right at his receiver, looking to the throw the ball quickly. If you watch the video again and look at Flacco's head, he never takes his eyes off that side of the field, first reading the defender and then looking for the throw to the tight end.

Unfortunately there is a problem. Troy Polamalu is about to come free on Flacco's blindside. The blitzer to the right (our left) is accounted for by the "hot"route. The four rushing defenders up the middle are being blocked. So who is accounting for Polamalu, who you can see ringed on (our) right of the picture below?

The answer is of course; nobody. And this is where the problem comes in. Lombardi is blaming Flacco for not seeing Polamalu and thus getting the ball out quickly, but I'm not sure that is Flacco's responsibility. If you look at the picture above you can see the running back is headed to the his right (our left) and by comparison to the picture below you can see that the back ends up picking up the blitz that was already accounted for by the "hot" route. This poses a problem. We have one blitzer being picked up by two people, a case of "double accounting" you might say. This is how Polamalu ends up coming free and I'm inclined to blame the back for this. It's obvious that the "hot" route has one of the blizters covered, so I imagine the back was supposed to go to his left (our right) and pick up Polamalu. Except the back goes the wrong way and as you can see in the picture below, the end result is Flacco trying to give Polamalu an unintended piggy back, which lead to a game changing fumble.

So what have we learnt? Hopefully, that Michael Lombardi is best utilized not analyzing plays on Playbook, but cutting through the layers of bureaucratic and politically correct crap that often surrounds NFL teams and their interactions with the media, and of course the media's own guilt when it comes to shovelling bullshit. And we've also learnt that the Ravens have serious protection issues, mainly involving their backs. Maybe one of the reasons for their offensive success last week against New Orleans stems from the fact that they used Ray Rice much more as a receiver in the passing game where he excels, and relied on him much less for protection purposes. I'll be back later to recap the Saturday night game and give you my picks for Sunday, but until then, Merry Christmas everyone. Bah Humbug

Monday Night Football recap

Just to start off I want to draw your attention to an article from the Associated Press that was posted on NFL.com. It's about female reporter Ines Sainz, who during a visit to the Jets facility - including their locker room - alleges that she was the recipient of various whistles and cat calls, and that when she was out observing practice on the field both coaches and players made an undue effort to throw the ball so that it would be caught near to where she was standing. Overall she is said to have felt "uncomfortable". Apparently the NFL is looking into it, but I really think someone should be looking into the Associated Press. As I read the article I encountered numerous instances of what I would consider to be selective reporting, designed to make Sainz appear as the type of lady who would encourage inappropriate attention. References are made to photos posted of her in swim wear on her Networks website and they make a point of ignoring any good/well known work she may have done with regards to football journalism in favour of mentioning the time she measured Steve Breastons bicep at the Super Bowl and the fact that she once mistakenly referred to the Giants as the Jets. If mistaking a teams name innocently - just a slip of the tongue/mind etc - is a sin, then every reporter who has ever worked in sports and every writer who has ever written about football is in the same boat. In my opinion - for what it's worth - the article was written in such a way as to portray Sainz in a bad light. And I'd expect much better from the Associated Press. And the NFL. Now, time to recap Monday nights games and see if I've recovered a morsel of hope in my picks: Ravens 10 @ Jets 9 -- Hmm, high scorer this one. And so much for the Jets Super Bowl bid. One loss doesn't preclude a team from winning the big one, but that offense sure does look shaky. In fact shaky is not the right word. Terrible would be the right word. They made the Browns look productive. Sanchez finished 10/21 for 74 yards. Jerricho Cotchery was their leading receiver with 18 yards from 2 catches. On the ground it was slightly more impressive. LaDanian Tomlinson carried 11 times for 62 yards, which is more than Ray Rice achieved for the Ravens with 21 carries (for 43 yards). Flacco in the end proved the difference, bouncing back from early mishaps to register 20/38 for 248 yards and an INT. Willis McGahee finally punched in the games only TD. Defense seemed to rule, mainly the Jets, as they struggled to keep "Air Flacco" grounded (Anquan Boldin finished with 7 catches for 110 yards). Leading the Jets was LB Bryan Thomas with 7 tackles, 2 assists and 1.5 sacks. DE Shaun Ellis came up with 5 tackles, 2 assists, a half sack and a forced fumble. Bart Scott (6 tackles, 3 assists, 1 forced fumble), Eric Smith (6 tackles, 3 assists) and Jim Leonhard (6 tackles) also did well.

For the Ravens the stats are low, but in a sense that's a good thing. It means they did the job effectively and didn't allow the Jets to put on many sustained drives. Terrell Suggs (4 tackles, 2 assists, a half sack and a forced fumble) and Haloti Ngata (3 tackles, 1 assist and a sack) are notable.

Chargers 14 @ Chiefs 21 -- I had some faith in the Chiefs. But after beating the Chargers, I now have less faith in them. This is caused by watching their defense play and realising that at times the Chargers receivers could have stood downfield swinging a ball and chain around their heads without any fear of ever hitting a Chiefs defender. Couple that with the Chiefs meagre tackling and it's nothing short of a miracle that they came away from this one with a win. Well, a miracle plus the longest punt return for a TD in team history. Plus triple covering Antonio Gates on the final play of the game. And that's the trouble with the Chargers. At times they breezed through the Chiefs defense like... me going through coffee. But then they got to the moment when it really counts with just 20 yards between them and a score and they bottled it. Philip Rivers ended the game with 22/39 for 298 yards and 2 TDs. Rookie running back Ryan Matthews (watch list) carried the ball 19 times for 75 yards, but it would appear the Chargers are still not prepared to let go of their passing game, even in the red zone. Legedu Naanee led all receivers with 5 catches for 110 yards and a TD. Chiefs QB Matt Cassel had a relatively dismal outing, ending 10/22 for 68 yards and a TD. Jamaal Charles demonstrated his burst in the open field, rushing for 92 yards and a TD off 11 carries, including a 56 yard scoot for the score. Defensively Chargers Safety Steve Gregory led his team in tackles with 7 and LB Shaun Phillips pitched in well with 5 tackles and a sack. For the Chiefs it was LB Derrick Johnson who stood out, with 11 tackles, an assist and a forced fumble. That then wraps up week 1 in the NFL, leaving me a craptacular 6/10 for my picks. Never fear, the season is young. And we've learnt... stuff. And this is the big problem with week 1. Do we really believe the Texans are going to spend the rest of the season as a rush first offense? Actually they probably will, just to spite me. I hate the Texans. Have a great day everyone.

Wildcard weekend Sunday round up

NFC - Packers 45 @ Cardinals 51 -- Let's get two things straight right off the bat. #1, the Packers have only themselves to blame for their turnovers, one of which ultimately cost them the game. #2 This was probably one of the most exciting games of football in recent memory. And now the rant can begin. 'Cos this was also the biggest joke in footballing history, an abomination that brings the otherwise excellent reputation (deserved) of the NFL officiating into disrepute. Simply put, the Packers were robbed. On both TD passes to Larry Fitzgerald, Packers CB Charles Woodson was unceremoniously knocked to the ground. This was more than interference, it was downright blatant cheating. It's surely no coincidence that the twice victim of this tactic is also considered (and rightly so) to be the Packers best defensive back. Then just to add insult to injury, on the second TD there was a call for roughing the passer.... despite the contact beginning prior to the release of the ball This just shocked me when I saw it. The NFL has a reputation for being a pass friendly/offense friendly league. But this took it to far. If a defensive player makes contact with a receiver beyond 5 yards from the LOS then they get called for illegal contact downfield. So how in the hell can they compete when receivers are slamming them to the ground? Honestly, this is just disgusting. I've ranted before about how 'pick' or 'rub' plays are supposed to be illegal and yet go completely unnoticed (Colts, Cardinals, in particular), but this truly was the icing on the cake. I'd like to talk about the Cardinals QB Kurt Warner and his amazing achievement of going 29/33 for 379 yards and 5 TDs. But I can't. To do so would dishonour the Packers defense who were robbed on two plays that resulted in 14 points. Without them, the Cardinals would be going home. I'm just still in shock. To give you an idea of how annoyed I am, think about this. All season long I've had it in for the Saints. They're over rated and make a living off of hype. But next weekend, I hope they pound the Cardinals into the floor. That's how badly I want the Cardinals to lose now. If Arizona makes the Superbowl, it'll be nothing more than a sick joke. On a more positive note, if Green Bay can keep their players and coaches in place for next season, they're going to be a seriously dangerous team. AFC - Ravens 33 @ Patriots 14 -- 10 passes. That's all Joe Flacco threw. Yet contrary to popular opinion (in the NFL & among 'spread' lovers) throwing that little doesn't mean you're guaranteed to lose. In fact, that probably guaranteed the Ravens victory. Rice and McGahee shared no less than 42 carries between them, chalking a combined 221 yards and 3 TDs. Compare that to Tom Brady's stats; 23/42, 154 yards, 2 TDs & 3 INTs. The fact is, the Patriots got taken apart. Even though Flacco threw a pick (yeah, on only 10 passes!), by keeping the ball out of his hands the Ravens reduced turnovers and controlled the ball, keeping it away from the potentially explosive Pats. And with the Ravens scoring three TDs and a FG in the 1st quarter, the Patriots were doomed to try and pass to catch up, along with the turnovers that normally go hand in hand with such a prolonged endeavour. Ah well, at least I got my pick right! So that's 3/4 pick wise this week. If it wasn't for some appalling refereeing, I'd be 4/4 so I'm happy. And now we have the fixtures set for the divisional round, as the Cardinals travel to the Saints (NFC) and the Ravens travel to the Colts (AFC) on Saturday, and on Sunday, the Vikings play host to the Cowboys (NFC) and the Chargers welcome the Jets (AFC). Should be four pretty good games. Later in the week I'll talk about momentum and on Friday I'll share my picks for the weekends action.