Week 11 NFL picks

Ok, Friday night/Saturday morning time, which means it's time for my week 11 picks. So far I'm already 0-1 this week (I hate them Panthers) which brings me up to 37-18 so far over these last 4 weeks or so. Last week I had a stormer, this week I'm not so confident. Anyway, here we go: Colts@ Ravens : The Colts are undefeated, but that's not why I'm taking them. I think against New England they got awful lucky to scrape a win at the end. It seemed that ultimately a lot of things conspired (metaphorically) to defeat the Patriots, including their own coach. Against a tough Ravens D I'm guessing they'll struggle a bit more than last week. The key is though, the Ravens O has gone flat. They scored just 1 offensive touchdown against the Browns, purely because they caught them out during a muddled substitution. I can't seem them keeping up with Manning. Colts win. Redskins@ Cowboys : If the Cowboys play to expectations, they should toast the Redskins. They have a three headed beast of a rushing attack. If Barber, Choice and in particular Felix Jones get going, it'll be a long afternoon for the Redskins. But, and this is a big but, if Romo gets nervous as he tends to do around this time of year, then it could go the other way. Romo has a tendency to cave under pressure, which explains the number of balls thrown Roy Williams's way last week. And against a high ranked Redskins defense, I don't like the outlook. Ladell Betts should have another big day on the ground, possibly becoming the focal point of the Redskins offense. Chuck in some play action to get the ball to Santana Moss and the Redskins have a good shout. Redskins win. Browns@ Lions : The Lions are bad, but the Browns are far worse. To cap it all off, they've lost primary playmaker Joshua Cribbs to injury. Expect Cleveland to face a lot of short fields and to have to throw to get into the game. That's always bad news for them. Stafford meanwhile has come along ok for the Lions. He has Calvin Johnson back and fit, and they are growing in confidence with their running game, powered by 2nd year back Kevin Smith. I like the Lions in this one. Lions win. 49ers@ Packers : My brilliant boys (ha ha) in Red & Gold head north to face Green Bay. And win it. The Packers defense came alive last week, but the 49ers D has been alive and kicking all season. Expect Packers QB Aaron Rodgers to spend more time chewing the grass this week. The trouble for San Fran' has been getting their offense going. I think this week, given the location and conditions, they'll turn to Frank Gore to help carry the load. And that's going to be explosive. 49ers win. Bills@ Jaguars : There is nothing, not a thing, to recommend the Bills in this one. They have the worst rushing defense in the entire league, and they're about to play host to one of the best backs in the league. Maurice Jones-Drew is going to have a field day. And on top of that, if he gets around 10 carries I can see rookie Rashad Jennings going for over 100 as well. Jaguars win. Steelers@ Chiefs : Oh lord. Jamaal Charles is in for a tough week against the leagues leading rush defense. The only other option they have is to throw the ball and try and get Dwayne Bowe and Chris Chambers involved. Not easy when you have the Steelers secondary waiting to pounce. Even with Troy Polamalu out, the Steelers D is still dangerous. That's before we even begin to talk about how good their offense is. Steelers win. Seahawks@ Vikings : Are you kidding me? Vikings win. Falcons@ Giants : The Giants have been slumping of late. Good thing then that Michael Turner is injured as it makes their task a hell of a lot easier against this Falcons team. The Giants are coming off a bye. They've had a chance to rest, heal up, organise themselves, and iron out some of the wrinkles in their game. Expect the Giants to come at the Falcons hard with their tough rushing attack and pound the Falcons light D-line. Eli should be healthy enough to pick his targets and put up some numbers. Giants win. Saints@ Buccaneers : There are two things I want you to consider here. 1) In my opinion, the Saints have been damn lucky at times to stay undefeated. Coaching errors abound by their opposition, the Saints have scraped through. 2) For all the talk about Darren Sharper as the defensive play maker, its really been CBs Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter who have kept this defensive unit on track. Their coverage play and run support has been vital. Now consider that Greer and Porter are both injured. And that Buccaneers QB Josh Freeman is just finding his groove. Every time I've picked against the Saints they've managed to rustle up some kind of miraculous escape from the jaws of doom. Not this week. Buccaneers win. Cardinals@ Rams : The Rams have the ever present threat of Steven Jackson in their backfield. But bizarrely, I'm more interested in the Cardinals rushing attack. Wells and Hightower have started stamping some authority over teams of late, relieving some of the pressure on QB Kurt Warner to do all the work himself. I like their newly found balancing act. Cardinals win. Chargers@ Broncos : The Broncos QB Kyle Orton is nursing an injury. Without him, they're a little screwed. The Chargers are just finding their groove. Rivers is making good connections through the air, Merriman is starting to tee off on opposition QBs, and Tomlinson has found some inspiration to run hard again. Watch out. Chargers win. Jets@ Patriots : During pre-season, Jets Head Coach Rex Ryan said he wasn't about to kiss Bill Belichicks Superbowl rings. Maybe not, but his team is still about to get creamed by the Patriots. Brady & Belichick will no doubt be a little annoyed with themselves for their part in last weeks 4th down debacle. This week expect them to open the taps and let the Jets have everything they've got. Expect the Jets coaches to continue pandering to Mark Sanchez, resulting in picks that the Pats offense will happily convert into points. This one could get ugly. Patriots win. Bengals@ Raiders : Bruce Gradkowski is set to start this week for the Raiders. Oh dear lord. I know I always make fun of JaMarcus Russell, often with good reason, but he has many of the same problems they have in Cleveland. Namely, his receivers suck. Even on the rare occasions when Russell makes a good choice and slots the ball in nicely, his receivers often dump it on the turf. Bruce is unlikely to change the status quo. The Bengals meanwhile are dominating in every phase of play and especially on defence. If the Raiders throw any loose passes (which they will) expect Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph to start racking up the picks. Bengals win. Eagles@ Bears : Simply put, the Bears O-line can't generate any push up front to get their rushing attack going. This means that Jay Cutler has to try and win every game single handed. That's a problem when you have a defensive assault like the Eagles generate coming to town. With Asante Samuel lurking in the Eagles secondary, it just gets worse for the Bears. On the other side of the field, the Eagles will be splitting their rushing attack between LeSean McCoy and Leonard Weaver. That equals bad news for the Bears. These two are going to have a hell of a game. Oh yeah, and the Eagles aren't to shabby when they throw the ball either. Eagles win. Titans@ Texans : Tough match. The Texans are still playing around trying to find their offensive identity. The Titans however have finally got theirs locked in stone; Give the ball to Chris Johnson and LenDale White, pound the rock, and then let Vince Young take controlled chances in the passing game. Couple that with probably the most dangerous and legitimate option attack in the league right now, and it really is a case of "Houston, we have a problem....". Titans win. So there you have it, short and sweet. I was a little pressed for time so I couldn't go quite into as much depth as I'd like. Having said at the start I wasn't so confident about this week, I actually now think I might be in with a good shout of pulling off another 10 win showing. Unless of course, I've just cursed myself...... Tomorrow I want to have a look at the Titans, and see if they really can come back from the brink and finish 10-6. And as always, if you enjoy what you're reading and you follow the blog then a) Thank you very much and b) spread the word next time you're at the office water cooler.