Saturday, January 09, 2010
Wildcard weekend picks
The time is nearly upon us. The Great prize of the NFL, the SuperBowl, looms ever closer. But even getting there is a challenge in its own right. This week we see 8 teams do battle in the wildcard round and here's my picks:
Saturday:
NFC - Eagles @ Cowboys -- It's been tough for the Eagles lately, especially against the Cowboys. Their perennial problem of throwing too much reared its ugly head again last week. They just don't seem to have any confidence in the running backs to earn them solid gains on a consistent basis. Which is a shame, because they have Brian Westbrook, LeSean McCoy, and fullback Leonard Weaver. And that's pretty much a perfect 'West Coast Offense' backfield. Weaver has already shown he can run and pass, so the fact that they under utilize him always seems very odd. Conversely the Cowboys have had a pretty good season. They've banished their December winning woes (at least for one season) and have the luxury of both a versatile attack and a dogged defense. DeMarcus Ware and Jay Ratliff spearhead an awesome unit that seems to get stronger every week. Meanwhile Tony Romo is finding his groove with number one wideout Miles Austin, and he still has Jason Witten and Patrick Crayton as two very reliable second editions. Throw in the three headed rushing monster (Barber, Choice, Jones) and the Cowboys have a huge shout of winning their first post season game since 1996. Given the balance of tools and talent, I think the Cowboys have the edge. Cowboys win.
AFC - Jets @ Bengals -- Last Sunday was a massacre. Watching it on TV, I cringed everytime the Bengals offense stepped out onto the field. It was poor. The Receivers couldn't catch, the QB had no time to throw and the O-line was generating zero pressure in the run game. The Jets were a complete contrast. When they took shots down the field, Sanchez had plenty of time. Ok, so the receiving corps didn't exactly cover itself in glory. But the O-line certainly did. They man handled the Bengals D like they were little schoolgirls, chucking them aside at will. If that had been a boxing match, it would have been over by half time. Even if the Bengals hadn't gone down, the ref would have called it. There are only two possible explanations. 1) The Bengals were being cunning, playing poorly to give the opposition a false sense of security and saving their strength and killer tactics for this match, in the knowledge it would be likely to happen, or 2) they just weren't as good as the Jets. I'm pretty much leaning towards 2. It was truly horrific. If the Bengals play like that again this week then they're done. I think it might be a tighter game, but not tight enough for Cincinnati. Jets win.
Sunday:
NFC - Packers @ Cardinals -- Coming into the playoffs last year, nobody was backing Arizona. Everyone (except maybe Rod Woodson) thought that Arizona were going to be one and done. In the end they went to the Superbowl and only narrowly missed taking home the Lombardi Trophy. So, are they being taken more seriously this year? Erm, actually no. Why? Maybe because their first game this year is against the Packers, who just happen to be on a fantastic run of form and are hotly tipped by some (including me) to make it to the big game themselves. It's a teaser this one. The Cardinals can be a great team both passing and rushing, and their defense is pretty darn good as well. They have playmakers all over the place. But they'll be missing Anquan Boldin and that's a big blow for them offensively. The Packers meanwhile have just as many tools on both sides of the ball. They have arguably the best complete receiving corps in the NFL, their run game has flourished of late, and their defense has settled into the 3-4 scheme. Charles Woodson in particular is a highly capable player who somehow finds himself all over the field making tackles, breaking up passes and forcing turnovers. This game should be a real classic and the winner will have to be taken seriously as a Superbowl contender. And I think that's going to be the Packers. Packers win.
AFC - Ravens @ Patriots -- Ugh. With the Colts and the Chargers lying in wait and the winner of the Jets/Bengals game having to pull out all the stops to win, this match has all the makings of a sideshow, just a warm up for football fans. Neither of these teams has excelled this season and few people expect the winner of this one to change that mindset. They just both lack consistency. The Patriots have it worse, as their Mr. Consistency this year, Wes Welker, is now injured. For the Ravens, it's been Ray Rice. What's probably more surprising though is that both teams would normally be much vaunted for their respective defenses. This year, they're laughed at in this area. Some would say that even the Patriots Head Coach doesn't trust his D. And he has a reasonable cause not to. On the opposite side of the field, the once feared Ravens D has shown little of the toughness and ball hawking ability that made it so fearsome. It's been more like a sedate pussy cat than some raging lion this year. And honestly, I don't know where to go with my pick. I like the match up of the Pats O versus the Ravens secondary, but I also like the Ravens rushing attack against the Pats anaemic run defense. Ultimately I think the Pats will struggle more than the Ravens to make crucial first downs. I'm going with the Ravens. Ravens win.
Labels:
American Football,
analysis,
football,
NFL,
picks,
wildcard weekend
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