Divisional Round picks

Saturday: NFC - Cardinals @ Saints -- Honestly speaking, I don't care who wins this one. The Saints are over rated and the Card's basically cheated their way to the play offs. I'd rather see the Saints win, but given their losing streak at the end of the season, their extended time since last playing a competitive game and the Cardinals momentum coming into this game, I think Arizona has the edge. Cardinals win. AFC - Ravens @ Colts -- Much has been made of the fact that the Ravens only attempted 10 passes last week and even then only completed 4, as well as throwing a pick. The theory is that you can't do that to an explosive team like the Colts. The theory is that they will run up so many early points you won't be able to take such a controlled and hard nosed approach. The theory is that defense alone cannot contain the Colts. Maybe in the wild card round you can get away with it, but not against a run away offense like the Colts. The theory is that maybe you can get away with it against lower, slower opposition like last week when the Ravens played, uhm, the Patriots? Yeah. The Patriots. Only the team that put 59 points up against the Titans. The same team that has Brady at QB and Moss at WR. And this is what I love about NFL analysis on TV. To use a slightly more bizarre and food based analogy what you're basically saying is that if I put butter (the Ravens rush heavy attack) on a piece of sliced bread (the Patriots) then that's fine, but it won't taste anywhere near as good if I put it on a piece of Baguette (the Colts). It's just another day in the life of the TV analyst I guess. Don't look at what's happening on the ground, just think back to the lines you've heard a thousand times before and then re-spout them as you're own knowledge. Fact 1. The Ravens tore Brady and his offense a new one. Fact 2. The Ravens D forced multiple turnovers from Brady whereas Flacco only threw 1 pick. Fact 3. The highly touted Patriots "... explosive aerial offense..." notched just 14 points last week. Fact 4. The Ravens "... slow.." rushing attack, that "... lacks explosive potential..." and desperately needs to "... throw more than just 10 times a game..." just happened to score 27 of the Ravens 33 points last week. That includes an 83-yard dash by Ray Rice as the team ended up totalling 234 yards rushing. So at what point is this offense incapable of matching the Colts? Not to mention the increased caliber of the Ravens D of late. They've played with a purpose and are finally starting to click once more. They got great pressure on Brady, especially up the middle, and according to a snippet of an interview of Ray Lewis (by Deion Sanders), Peyton Manning can expect the same treatment. Simply put, the Ravens know there is little threat of a big rush from the Colts. That means it's all on Manning and they have his number already. I think the Colts will take longer to get into the feel and rhythm of the game, and this a lot of people will be upset and shocked when the Ravens run out of town with a victory. Ravens win. Sunday: NFC - Cowboys @ Vikings -- Oh boy, this one is going to make or break Tony Romo. Yeah, make or break. Beat Brett Favre and everyone will be wetting their pants at how the old has been brushed aside by the new etc. Lose and the criticism will come flying in about how Favre has more bottle and Romo isn't in the same league as Brett when it comes to crunch time etc. Comparing them offensively, I think the Vikings have a slight edge. I think their potential to do damage is much greater. And herein lies the problem. Potential. Adrian Peterson is dangerous. He can turn a simple run into a big gain with one cut. And when a defense becomes fixated by him, play action will rip you up. But then the Vikings this season don't like running..... They become one dimensional. The TV pundits often repeated line is that defenses force them to become one dimensional by stopping the run. But then that's the whole point of having Favre, to throw against an 8-man box. Defense's don't force the Vikings to be one dimensional, they bring it on themselves. They don't even try and run it. That's the whole point with AP. You'll run the ball 20-25 times and 15 or more you might get stopped for just 2 or 3 yards. But then some runs he will just bust right through the defense and go on a mad charge down the field, knocking people out of the way and carrying defenders into the endzone. You just have to persevere. Honestly, I don't think they will. I think Ratliff up the middle will shut down some runs and suddenly they'll get pass happy. The Cowboys secondary isn't great, but with the pressure they're generating up front, I like their chances. Their offense can handle the Vikings D and their D can handle the Vikings offense. This might just be the game that convinces them they can win the Superbowl. Either that or they'll be convinced they can't win one with Tony and go hunting elsewhere (McNabb?). Cowboys win. AFC - Jets @ Chargers -- Hand on heart, I don't care who wins. Why? Because I like both teams. I like Rex Ryan and I like what he's doing with the Jets. I like their pressure based D. I like the way they've clearly laid out for Sanchez what he can and can't do in the passing game. I like the way they have become progressively more confident in their rushing attack, while setting up play action for Sanchez to make his life easier. I like the way they stick with the run. And I like the way they've pushed Shonne Greene to take more and more carries as his career blossoms before our very eyes. You can just tell that the quality of the coaching is superb for the Jets and they give their guys all the chances and help they need to succeed. On the opposite sideline, the Chargers have Norv Turner at the helm. Despite everything he has done as a coach, despite all the success that he has had in various places over the years, he still doesn't get anywhere near the respect he deserves. Norv keeps his schemes simple, but open to adaptation as the season progresses. It's intuitive and not over bearing. And most importantly, it's successful, as the Chargers have proven with another great year that sees them back in the playoffs. While LT has hardly been lighting up defenses on the ground, he does still get the job done efficiently on short yardage and especially around the goal line. Meanwhile Philip Rivers is making connections downfield to drive the ball inexorably closer to pay dirt. But defense will win the day. Both teams have shown they can produce offensively, albeit in a markedly different manner to each other. But whose defense will hold up best? Who can bust the other team down? And I think the choice is obvious don't you? Of course. The Chargers. Yep. See the Jets succeed by shutting down the oppositions number one guy. With his best target covered the QB pulls the ball down and goes looking for number 2, which is about the same time that he gets hit in the face by the pass rush. With the Chargers however, it's going to be tougher. Firstly, their backs have proven repeatedly that they are some of the best in the league when it comes to pass protection (with the Giants probably at the opposite end of the scale). Next we have to consider the receivers. There is little doubt that Vincent Jackson will be getting to know Darrelle Revis rather intimately on Sunday, as Revis attempts to insert himself permanently into Jacksons pocket. TE Antonio Gates will probably find himself doubled all game with a linebacker underneath and a safety over the top. Enter Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee. Rivers trusts both receivers. Both have shown they can play with the big boys. This week, their job is to step up and play instead of the big boys. They will need to make catches and turn them into big gains. The more they do that, the more coverage they can draw away, mainly from Gates. If Rivers is smart (which he is) he probably won't even throw in the direction of Revis all game. He'll be looking out for and locking in on his best match up. I think the Jets have a great D, but maybe not enough to handle everything the Chargers can through at them. Chargers win. So that's me done picking for another week. All that remains to say is enjoy your weekend and thank you to God as my beloved 49ers are rolling into town this October as they come across the Atlantic to enjoy the delights of a British Autumn (fall). All I need now is some tickets.......