Week 3 NFL picks (part 1)

So, after two weeks I'm currently 14-18 pick wise. There's a good chance this week to shift those numbers into the positive and we'll start by looking at the 1:00 pm kick offs: Titans @ Giants -- Even with the benching of Vince Young in the last game, I'm still sticking with the Titans to be a force in the AFC. At the same time I'm looking at the Giants and wondering if my pick for them as the division winners in the NFC East was perhaps ill advised. They came out against the Colts ready to stuff the pass and they still failed to do that! Given as well the quality of the Titans D and I have to go with a Titans win here. Bengals @ Panthers -- I'm high on the Bengals this season. I think they have a lot of good pieces in a lot of good places. I'm low on the Panthers. I just think the Panthers have that look of being a team that is trying to rediscover who they are and who they want to be. I think in this game they'll find themselves as losers. Bengals win. Steelers @ Buccaneers -- I'm struggling with this one. The Steelers D has been all kinds of impressive so far this year. Sadly they're now down to possibly their 53rd string QB on offense. Which begs the question; can the Bucs' offense generate just enough to overcome the Steelers O. Neither team is going to score highly but who can just get that little extra? The Buccaneers will be expecting their rookie QB to face the full fury of Dick LeBeau's zone blitz. The Steelers will probably lean on the run to hide the fact that Charlie Batch has had little work with the starters on offense. It's a tough ask, but I'm going with the Steelers. I can just see them getting a pick 6 or some other defensive play that seals the game. Bills @ Patriots -- I've learned, I've learned. I really have. Don't trust the Bills to do anything except go 0-16. Patriots win. Browns @ Ravens -- Much has been made of the Browns defense this year. I believe they rank number 10 or so overall. It's at this point that I should point out that they've played the Buc's and the Chiefs. So I'll be taking the Ravens then. 49ers @ Chiefs -- Do I have to choose a winner? I do. Ah well, let's find that lucky coin again.... ok, so no coin. Well, the 49ers kept the Saints down to less than 25 points which is a mighty achievement in itself and they looked much better on offense. The Chiefs are the Chiefs. They've been bright early on in the season, but I'm not sure they've really found the formula for sustained success. I'm taking the 49ers. Cowboys @ Texans -- I have spent all week fretting over this pick. The way I view it is this; the Cowboys D is strong but so is the Texans O. The Texans D is weak, but the Cowboys O struggles to score points and finish drives. So which gives first? Will the Cowboys pass rush and coverage hold the Texans to a manageable score? And even then can the Cowboys O catch up? Or will they take advantage of the Texans porous D and find the endzone multiple times, storming off into the lead as their defense constricts the Texans? I really can't decide. Both outcomes seem just as likely at this stage. In the end though I guess I have to fall on one side of the tracks or the other, and this time I'm going to take the Texans. Just. Lions @ Vikings -- Given the fact I really like Brett Favre as a player and I really like seeing old players prove that the gap between them and the youngsters isn't as big as some TV stations would make out, I'm surprisingly happy to see Favre and the Vikings do so badly. Maybe it's because I got sick of the whole "retirement" thing or maybe just because I think Brad Childress is an a**. Either way I'm smiling. And I think Jim Schwartz and his Lions might be smiling after Sunday as well. The Vikings just look bad right now. Really bad. Not that the Lions D is light years ahead, but their offense certainly is, and the combo of Kyle Vanden Bosch and Ndamukong Suh will give Favre and Peterson trouble all day. I'm going Lions. Falcons @ Saints -- The Vikings and the 49ers both have relatively good defenses, or at least they did last year. That still doesn't stop me worrying about the amount of points the Saints are not scoring. In a similar vein both the Vikings and the 49ers have struggled offensively. This combination has led to the Saints keeping things tight. I think against the Falcons the dream of a repeat (you can't imagine the number of times I've heard people saying "two-peat". You mean just a plain repeat right?) will start to crumble. I doubt the Falcons will be as prolific as they were last week, but they can pull this out of the bag. Falcons win. And there you have it. Tomorrow I'll be back to round up the remainder of the weekends games and then hopefully on Sunday my picks will surge to success. Hopefully..... Have a great day everyone.

Week two NFL picks part 2

Time at last to finish off my picks for week two, starting with the Seahawks at the Broncos: Seahawks @ Broncos -- Always good to start on a tough one. The trouble with Seattle is simple; yes they blew away the 49ers, but the 49ers were woeful. Was it a lucky start or a legitimate sign of things to come? At the minute my money is on the Seahawks catching a break week one but not week two. I think the Broncos are better than their performance last week and certainly need a good showing to put a hot poker to the teams butt. Kyle Orton is a better QB than people give him credit for, so I'm siding with the Broncos for this one. Broncos win. Rams @ Raiders -- On paper you could argue that this will be a terrible game, especially given the recent seasons that these two teams have had. But I actually thinks this might be quite a good game, a dark horse "watcher". Both teams have a point to prove, in that all their off season moves (including those from the last few drafts etc) have been building towards some kind of long term perfect storm that we were all over looking. At the very least they should be up for kicking seven bells of s**t out of each other. I'm backing the Rams (on the condition they don't throw it 50+ times in the game, in which case my pick defaults to the Raiders). Texans @ Redskins -- Forget it. I'm mental, but I'm not taking the Redskins. No way. I know they beat the Cowboys last week and I know that I hate the Texans, but it's not happening. I shall not fall into the Donovan McNabb trap. Yes he is a pretty good QB, but it's still the Redskins offense along with all that entails. And besides, no matter what the Texans do this week offensively, I'm fairly certain they can over power the Redskins. Hear that Texans? It means that no matter what I predict you to do and no matter how hard you try to do the opposite, it'll still end the same way. So please kindly produce a repeat of the offense that nailed the Colts last week. Texans win. Patriots @ Jets -- I'm now officially sick of hearing about "Revis island". As many others have pointed out, some with access to the NFLs "all 22" film, there really is no Revis Island. Revis has received just as much safety help as a number of other corners in the league. In addition this whole business that Revis might have a minor hamstring injury heading into the game sounds like a perfect excuse to cover the use of a safety over the top of Revis and/or to hide his blushes should Moss come out and tear Revis a new one. Given the amount of smack talk we've had from the Jets, coupled with Revis calling Moss a slouch, it's no wonder that they're anxious of the possibility that the Patriots might be about to drown them in points. Especially as the Patriots are looking red hot right now. Patriots win. Jaguars @ Chargers -- I have absolutely no clue. I don't particularly fancy either team to be honest, but I probably fancy the Jaguars just a bit less. I can see the Chargers bringing rookie Ryan Matthews more into the game, which will be a big positive for San Diego. Chargers win. Giants @ Colts -- For some reason everyone seems to believe that Peyton Manning and the Colts are going to win this week based purely off the fact that the last time the Colts lost their opening two games was way back in Mannings rookie year. Well I'm sorry, but there are plenty of better reasons to suggest that the Colts will lose this one like; their poor run defense, the strong Giants pass rush, because I hate Peyton Manning (ok, so that's not a valid reason). Anyway, I don't think people are giving the Giants anywhere near enough credit. Giants win. Saints @ 49ers -- Give me a break. It's bad enough that this week we've been privy to a very open and ugly bust up in the 49ers organisation, which Mike Singletary has tried - and completely failed - to cover up. But now we have to play New Orleans? As much as I felt the Saints Super bowl run/win from last year was the product of an incredibly fluky series of games to even get them into the playoffs, I still respect Drew Brees and their offense (just not the defense). Given then how bad the 49ers D looked last week, coupled with the fact that our offense has possibly got worse since last year (no, I didn't think it could either) and I'm afraid I'm going to have to go against my team this week. Saints win. And there we have it, all my week 2 picks done. Honestly speaking, I'm incredibly uncomfortable with a lot of them. There are plenty of games that really could be decided by just a single big play, while many of those team are still unsure about who they are this year and how they're going to play. That's going to cause pick problems probably all the way up to about week four I'd imagine. Still, must press on. Nothing ventured, nothing gained, as they say. Have a great day everyone.

Week 1 NFL round up

I was in a bad mood before. I didn't get to watch any of the games. Then I had a crappy day. Then I saw the scores. I don't believe it. It's recap time: Browns 14 @ Buccaneers 17 -- It's not often that you pick the Buccaneers and it pays off so I'm pretty ecstatic about this one. Well, as much as you can be over a Buc's/ Browns game. Delhomme lived up to form throwing two interceptions, one of which could be considered to have directly lead to a TD as Ronde Barber showed off his 35 year old legs on a return that fell just short of the end zone. Delhomme finished 20/37 for 227 yards and a TD in addition to those two picks. Bucs' QB Josh Freeman finished 17/28 for 182 yards and 2 TDs plus an interception. Cadillac Williams also helped the Bucs' offense with 22 caries for 75 yards and a score. Browns TE Evan Moore led all receivers with 3 catches for 87 yards. Defensively the Browns were led in tackles by DB T.J. Ward who posted 7 plus 3 assists and a forced fumble. Corner Mike Adams gets an honourable mention for his 5 tackles, 2 assists and an INT while LB Marcus Benard gets the same for his 1.5 sacks. The Bucs' were led by LB Barrett Ruud who had 7 tackles, an assist and a forced fumble while LB Geno Hayes did almost the same but without the forced fumble. Dolphins 15 @ Bills 10 -- I was almost there with the Bills. What makes this a truly bad result is that the Bills looked shocking from the video I've seen. Truly shocking. I'm talking blocking ineptitude (both pass and run) of unbelievable proportions. I would have hung my head in shame if I was a junior high line coach who had sent those men onto the field in that condition. So for the Dolphins to only win by 5 is not good. That is not the performance of a team that will challenge for the AFC East. The improvement had better be rapid and significant to off set such a shambolic display. Chad Henne finished 21/34 for 182 yards. And another thing. The organised media (as opposed to me being unorganised/unofficial) seem to be falling over themselves to talk up Brandon Marshall. 8 catches for 53 yards, including a drop despite being wide open is not the performance you expect from a man on his salary. And another thing (again). Given the quality of the 'Phins backs and how well they played, why give Henne 34 throws? Why tempt fate in such a tight game? Did they learn nothing from their loss to New Orleans last year? On the Bills side, Trent Edwards went 18/34 for 139 yards and a TD. But what about C.J. Spiller, your first round draft pick at RB? Seven carries? What the hell was the point? To be fair though, watching the way the Bills line blocked, it was a miracle that Marshawn Lynch was able to break the 15 yard run that proved to be the Bills longest of the day. Three sacks from the Dolphins D helped, including one from Koa Misi (watch list). Drayton Florence led the Bills in tackles with 9 plus an assist and credit to Bills LB Paul Posluszny for his 6 tackles, 2 assists and a sack. Bengals 24 @ Patriots 38 -- Don't let the score belittle how much of a game this was. The Patriots may have raced to an early first half lead, but the Bengals fought back. Subtract the pick six and the returned kick off (two things that happen infrequently and very randomly to teams) and you have a tied game. Take away Wes Welkers TD catch that never crossed the goal line and you have a Cincy win. This is what frustrates me sometimes about pundits. Ok, you've gotta cover kick offs better than that and you can't blame the Patriots for returning an interception to the end zone. But before checking out the highlights etc, I was led to believe by various game reports that this was some kind of domination show, that the Patriots first wiped the floor with the Bengals then dipped them in the bucket to have another go. That was not the case. Brady finished 25/35 for 258 yards and 3 TDs. Welker led the Pat's receivers with 8 catches for 64 yards and 2 TDs & Fred Taylor led the Pat's backs with 14 carries for 71 yards. Carson Palmer led the chase with 34/50 for 345 yards, 2 TDs and an 1 INT; an indication that the Pats defense had just as many holes in it as the Bengals. I also noticed that nobody was prepared to give Chad Ochocinco the credit he rightly deserves for his 12 catches for 159 yards and a TD. And this is before we even get to Jordan Shipley (watch list). Now yes I know Welker came back from a bad injury and yes he scored two (?) TDs (the first was off a 4 yard screen play that just wasn't covered by enough defenders). But do we really have to fill pages with effusive praise for him when Shipley went 82 yards off just 5 catches? I've already mentioned Ochocino as well. Where was his praise? Hidden under a thick wad of Patriot loving I'm afraid. Defensively there were a few standouts, which kind of defeats the point of being a stand out. For the Bengals it was LBs Keith Rivers and Dhani Jones with 7 tackles each and 3 & 2 assists respectively. The Patriots were led by DB Pat Chung with 12 tackles and 4 assists, followed by LB Jerod Mayo (8 tackles, 4 assists) and corner Darius Butler (8 tackles). Colts 24 @ Texans 34 -- I hate the Panthers because they always do the opposite of what I predict they will. This week however they actually did what I thought they would while the Texans defy me once more. I now hate the Texans more than the Panthers! But oddly I kind of like the Texans as well. I've always believed that if you give a good back 30 carries, he should be able to rustle up 250 yards of offense. The Texans went some way to proving that. They also proved that throwing the ball 50 times versus running it 40 times does not necessarily mean the passing team will win, which is good because it will annoy the hell out of football statisticians. And finally, they beat the Colts, so what's not to like about that. Peyton Manning went 40/57 for 433 yards and 3 TDs, which is still bloody impressive. Joseph Addai was granted just 10 carries by the Sheriff. Matt Schaub by comparison looked flat with 9/17 for 107 yards, a TD and an INT. But Texans running back Arian Foster stole the day, with 33 carries for 231 yards and 3 TDs. Not that you'd know that if you were watching the NFL.com version of the games highlights, which included Peyton Manning, more Peyton Manning, more Peyton Manning, and just 38 seconds of the game changing Foster. Defensively I should point out first that Bob Sanders decided to get himself injured and potentially put on the scrap heap for another year. Antoine Bethea ably stepped up with 8 tackles and 5 assists. DE Robert Mathis finished with 5 tackles and a sack. For the Texans it was LB Zac Diles leading the way (9 tackles, 3 assists) followed by LB DeMeco Ryans (8 tackles, 2 assists) and Safety Bernard Pollard (8 tackles, 1 assist). Broncos 17 @ Jaguars 24 -- Once again the heavens opened and did everything they could to try and stop people from being put through another Jacksonville game, but alas the show went on and my pick went up in smoke. David Garrard finished with 16/21 for 170 yards and 3 TDs, while Maurice Jones-Drew carried the ball 23 times for 98 yards (also a mention for Rashad Jennings who got his obligatory 4 carries in for 26 yards). Kyle Orton on the other hand was slinging it out, finishing 21/33 for 295 yards, a TD and an INT. Credit to Brandon Llyod for his 5 catches for 117 yards. LB D.J. Williams led the Broncos D with 9 tackles and 2 assists. LB Daryl Smith was the Jaguars stand out with 5 tackles, 2 assists, an INT and a Forced Fumble. Noteworthy as well was rookie DE Tyson Alualu (watch list) who registered a sack and Aaron Kampman who bagged 1.5 sacks. Falcons 9 @ Steelers 15 (OT) -- A boring exchange of field goals that must have left Atlanta fans wishing they'd got tickets to some other game, any other game. Even a Browns game. In the end it was an ok day for the quarterbacks. Matt Ryan finished 27/44 for 252 yards and an INT. Dennis Dixon went 18/26 for 236 yards and an INT himself. On the ground though Michael Turners 19 carries for 42 yards were not a match for Rashard Mendenhalls 22 carries, 120 yards and a game winning TD scamper in overtime. Defensively the very impressive LB Curtis Lofton led the Falcons (8 tackles, 3 assists and a sack). Keep your eyes out for Lofton this season. He was backed up by Safety Erik Coleman (7 tackles, 2 assists) and LB Sean Weatherspoon (watch list) (7 tackles, 1 assist). For the Steelers it was DB Bryant McFadden who led the way with 12 tackles and 2 assists. LBs Lawrence Timmons (9 tackles, 2 assists) and James Harrison (4 tackles, 5 assists and a sack) followed. Raiders 13 @ Titans 38 -- The Raiders were smoked by the team who I think (no Chris, don't do it) may possibly have (Chris... don't do it) the best shot (you know it never works out) at going to the Super Bowl for the AFC (Ahhh.. he did it) and may even (no... not that as well) go on (don't!!) and win the big one itself (now you've cursed them. A**clown). Vince Young finished with 13/17 for 154 yards and 2 TDs, but it was Chris Johnson who stole the show again for the Titans with 27 carries for 142 yards and 2 TDs. Jason Campbell could manage just 22/37 for 180 yards, a TD and an INT. More to the point, if Campbell keeps taking shots like he did in this game then he's going to be spending a lot of time sitting on the bench watching games with broken joints. The Raiders hardly had what I would call a stand out, though Kamerion Wimbley did ok with 4 tackles, an assist, a sack and a Forced Fumble. The Titans D cooked up 4 sacks with one being claimed by MLB Will Witherspoon (6 tackles and a sack). Watch for Witherspoon this year. Like Lofton in Atlanta he will be the glue that binds this defense. Safety Michael Griffin will be the child in the corner drinking the glue and going on a rampage collecting 10 tackles and 2 assists. Panthers 18 @ Giants 31 -- I don't hate the Panthers anymore. I cant. They did exactly what I expected they would. They believed all the hyperbole dumped on Matt Moore last year after having one good game (including numerous comments of the "he looked like a pro bowler" variety). Please explain then the 14/33 for 182 yards, one TD and 3 INTs against a defense not renowned for its ability to shut down the pass last year. Manning did better finishing 20/30 for 263 yards, 3 TDs and 3 INTs. Credit (and in this case blame) where it is due though, at least two of the Giants interceptions I've seen were caused by butter fingered receivers. Nice to see Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs put together 32 carries for a combined 120 yards and a TD. Two Panthers defensive standouts; LB Dan Connor (10 tackles, 3 assists, 1 sack) and James Anderson LB (7 tackles, 2 assists, and an INT). Safety Charles Godfrey gets an honourable mention for his 5 tackles, assist and 2 INTs. For the Giants the defensive highlights are; Antrel Rolle (7 tackles and an assist), Osi Umenyiora (4 tackles, 1 assist, 1 sack, 1 forced fumble) and Mathias Kiwanuka (3 tackles, 1 assist, 2 sacks, 1 forced fumble). Lions 14 @ Bears 19 -- This was a legit pick ruined by another of the more stupid rules in the NFL. The Lions left it late, but that catch by Calvin Johnson was good. I don't give a crap about all this "possession through the act of going to the ground" etc. He was on the ground. He had it plain and simple. As he gets up to turn away the ball clips the ground and comes loose. Now what happened to the ground not being able to cause a fumble? Anyway, Matthew Stafford took a big hit from Julius Peppers and will now sit for at least three weeks. Jahvid Best led the Lions on the ground with 14 carries for 20 yards and 2 TDs. Shame that such a talented young kid is not getting the work load he deserves. That's a problem Bears RB Matt Forte doesn't share. Only 17 carries on the ground for 50 yards, but 7 catches produced 151 yards and 2 TDs as the Bears finally found a way to get him the ball without being ploughed over immediately thanks to the Bears suspect O-line. I was surprised to see the Lions create 4 sacks on defense! Without doubt their leader was Kyle Vanden Bosch (10 tackles, 1 assist) supported by Safety Louis Delmas (8 tackles, 1 forced fumble) and Tackle Corey Williams (5 tackles, 1 sack). For the Bears it was Linebackers Lance Briggs (9 tackles, 1 assist, 1 forced fumble) and Brian Urlacher (who I didn't think was going to play; 8 tackles and a sack). Cardinals 17 @ Rams 13 -- Ahhh, again denied by the smallest of margins. Can I just thank the NFL Network once more for their judicious use of time by failing to include the Rams near fumble return for a TD in the highlight package. I guess they were finding more room for Peyton Manning or Tom Brady clips elsewhere in the show. And while I'm at it, the extended highlights featuring the radio commentary from the teams commentators is much better/more fun to watch than the crappy game day highlights. Anyway, back to the game. So you have a rookie QB and you want to nurture the kid, build him and his confidence up slowly right? Well in that case, try not having him throw 55 times in a game. 33 completions is good. 253 yards is good. The TD pass is good (literally). 3 INTs is BAD!! Mark Clayton looks like a peach of a trade for the Rams, costing them a 7th round pick to Baltimore. Clayton finished with 10 catches for 119 yards. Steve Breaston was the star of the show though. The Cardinals WR caught 7 passes for 132 yards (Derek Anderson; 22/41 for 297 yards, 1 TD) and was also the man who came roaring back down the field to strip the ball after a fumble that was nearly returned by Clifton Ryan for a TD. Great all round game. Defensively for the Rams credit goes to Safety O.J. Atogwe (8 tackles, 1 forced fumble) and Linebacker Larry Grant (4 tackles, 2 forced fumbles). For the Cardinals it was corner Greg Toler leading the team in tackles (13 tackles(!!) and a forced fumble) & LB Paris Lenon (7 tackles, 1 assist). Cardinals safety Adrian Wilson may have only clocked 2 tackles, but a sack and two forced fumbles is impressive once more from the Cardinals most under rated defender. Packers 27 @ Eagles 20 -- One mans loss is another mans gain. In this case lots of men lost (to injury) and others gained. Prime among them was Michael Vick, who walked on for the second half after Kevin Kolb went down with a concussion... and promptly blew away those in attendance with some mazy, speedy runs and some beautifully crisp passes. 16/24 for 175 yards and a TD, but he'll be remembered most looking back at this game for his 11 carries for 103 yards. Aaron Rodgers wasn't quite as athletic producing 9 yards off 5 carries, but he did throw 19/31 for 188 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs. For the Eagles D it was Trent Cole who predictably topped the charts with 6 tackles and a sack, but look out at the DE spot for Juqua Parker! Parker had 8 sacks last year, only to find out that he had potentially lost his spot to Brandon Graham. That is until Parker went out and produced two sacks against Green Bay last night. LB Clay Matthews stormed for the Packers D with 7 tackles, 2 sacks (of 5 Green Bay sacks on the night) and a forced fumble. 49ers 6 @ Seahawks 31 -- As a 49ers fan I type this with an almost tear in the eye. As an analyst (of sorts) I type this in just utter disbelief. What in the name of god happened? Matt Hasselbeck went 18/23 for 170 yards, 2 TDs and an INT. Alex Smith went 26/45 for 225 yards and 2 INTs. The question that immediately crops up is why is Alex Smith throwing 45 passes. Lay aside my natural bias to the run and just think about it for a second; Mike Singletary has always said he wanted to run the football and play good defense. The Texans ran the ball and played good defense against the Colts (well... they ran the ball at least). The Titans ran the ball and played great defense. The 49ers ran the ball 19 times and played horrible defense. Chris Johnson had 27 carries. Arian Foster had 33. Frank Gore had 17. That is not what I expected out of the 49ers. What was the point in using two first round picks on Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati who both really come alive in the running game, only to not bother running it? Defensively for the 49ers it was Patrick Willis, surprise, surprise, who led the team in tackles with 10. But then on a defense that tackled that badly, it wasn't hard. Seahawks standouts (of sorts) were; Safety Jordan Babineaux (5 tackles, 2 assists, and an INT) & LB Lofa Tatupu (5 tackles, 3 assists). Cowboys 7 @ Redskins 13 -- What the hell? How do you lose to the Redskins! McNabb went 15/32 for 171 yards. Romo put up 31/47 for 282 yards and a TD. That's good numbers from Tony. But what's this? Just 21 carries for the three headed monster that is the Cowboys backfield (95 yards)? And how does Marion Barber get more carries than Tashard Choice? Even Clinton Portis nearly racked up as many carries alone for the Redskins (18 for 63 yards). A truly woeful game, but a bright spot for the Cowboys was the play of their receivers; Miles Austin, Roy Williams & Dez Bryant all looking comfortable going up for catches. And the Cowboys cant really complain about the last second TD wiped off the board. It's just a pity that more holding calls aren't made (and I see at least 5 or 6 holds like that go uncalled, per game, every game). Safety Alan Ball stood out for the Cowboys with 6 tackles and a forced fumble, while LB DeMarcus Ware left the game with an injury after posting 6 tackles and a sack. The Redskins had some serious D going on, with 4 players posting 7 or more tackles. Safety LaRon Landry led in tackles with 13 and 3 assists. LB Rocky McIntosh clocked 8 tackles, 2 assists and a sack, DeAngelo Hall finished with 7 tackles, an assist and a forced fumble (which he then returned 32 yards for the sole Redskins TD), and finally London Fletcher rounds off the group with 7 tackles and 4 assists. Right, that's all of Sundays games in the bag then. Pick wise for this week I am now officially 4-10. I blame this solely on the Texans... because I can. I'll be back probably tomorrow to round up all of Monday Nights action. Till then, Have a great day everyone.

Week 1 picks

After last nights disappointing result (at least as far as my pick is concerned), it's time to bounce back with some Sunday night picks. Tonight I'll be covering the nine 1:00 pm games and then tomorrow I'll go through the rest of the weekend (plus Mondays) games. You're not gonna like some of these...... Browns @ Buccaneers -- Like this one for example. I'm going to take - against every fiber of my gut instinct - ... the Buccaneers. I should know better than to do this, to put optimism in this young group of players led by a competent young coach ahead of the cold, hard reality that Buccaneers fans are astounded every time their team scores more than 20 points. But I am optimistic about the Bucs'. When Head Coach Raheem Morris took over play calling duties last year the defense improved. Not by leaps and bounds. But they got better. The Bucs' offense has also stumbled along a little. The loss of Antonio Bryant will hurt, but their other crop of receivers are developing nicely and if young QB Josh Freeman can learn to use the quarterbacks best friend - his Tight End (Kellen Winslow II) - then there is hope for Tampa. The Browns are another team with hopes and dreams, but little else right now. They're hoping that Jake Delhomme will somehow pull back on the controls and recover from his nose dive into mediocrity. History tells us this is unlikely to happen. It doesn't help that his receiving corps in Cleveland could probably match the level of obscurity of the corps in Carolina, with Steve Smith the exception rather than the rule. The Browns do have some hopes however. Josh Cribbs is likely to ply his trade not just as a return specialist but also as an every down wide receiver. He still has a way to go to fully being considered a threat at the position, but his legitimate ball skills and agility will help. RB Jerome Harrison will also be worth watching as he eyes up a Buccaneers defense that struggled against the run last year. Dolphins @ Bills -- I said you weren't gonna like some of these. You sure as hell aren't gonna like this one. I'm taking the Bills. Yes, Buffalo. Now that you've finished laughing, can we continue please? Good. The Bills do have two things in their favour. One is the fact that their defense was among the leagues best against the pass last year. People forget that about the Bills. Safety Jarius Byrd led the league jointly (with Darren Sharper) in interceptions, and so far corners Drayton Florence and Terrence McGee have given able service to a secondary that is much better than people assume. What the Bills need now is for Linebackers Aaron Maybin and Paul Posluszny to make the difference up front. The second thing in the Bills favour is RB C.J. Spiller. Spiller is one of those players who TV talking heads will annoyingly and generically refer to as a "dynamic playmaker". Spiller is quick in the open field and that works for the Bills in so many ways. Like Chris Johnson for the Titans, not only can Spiller generate big plays in the running game, but he can also catch short passes and check downs which he then turns into first downs (and more). The constant threat of what Spiller might do if he gets the ball, will be just as useful as the things he does do when he actually gets the ball. If that makes sense. Hopefully it'll open up holes in the defense to allow the Bills struggling quarterbacks to find passes to Lee Evans and co. upon whom much of the Bills season will rely. For the Dolphins it's a tough ask. Their ground game is first class, but as they showed last season the Dolphins seem to lack confidence in it and routinely try to force the ball downfield with QB Chad Henne. Against a pass defense of the caliber that the Bills bring to the table, it could prove a costly error. The problems faced by the Dolphins is compounded by the loss of both Joey Porter and Jason Taylor. While the 'phins have some good linebackers to replace them, this unit is not up to the same standard as it was last year. Unless Brandon Marshall and Davone Bess can keep the Dolphins offense steadily moving down the field, expect a tough day for Miami. Bengals @ Patriots -- The New England Patriots are yet to suffer an opening game loss at Gillette stadium. Tom Brady is yet to suffer a defeat at the hands of the Bengals. But don't forget the old phrase "there's a first time for everything". The Bengals will welcome back Defensive End Antwan Odom who sat out most of last year through injury. Odom recently tested positive for a banned substance but will be allowed to play while his appeal is being heard, claiming that he tested positive because of medication that he is currently taking. It's a big boost for a Bengals defense that is already among the best in the league without him. Corners Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall will certainly get a worthy test against Randy Moss and the Patriots receiving unit. Wes Welker returns from a serious knee injury and will be hoping he can slot back into a Patriots offense that depended on him highly last year, especially on third down. Rookie tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez played well in the pre-season and will look to make their presence felt early, especially in the red zone. The Bengals also have a rookie tight end, first rounder Jermaine Gresham. Gresham is just one of the many additions to the Bengals offense this season, as Cincinnati looks to repeat as division champions and return to the playoffs. Without question however their attack still revolves around RB Cedric Benson, ably supported by Bernard Scott and Cedric Peerman (Cincinnati loves Cedrics' like the Eagles love xxSeans'). The question for the Bengals is can Carson Palmer make use of the rushing attack and his new receiver toys to punish defenses. If they drop a safety and switch to a cover 3 shell, can Palmer expose the weaknesses? Can he make use of his new TE and the potential of receivers like Andre Caldwell and rookie Jordan Shipley running routes underneath? I'm going to say yes, and take the Bengals. The Patriots defense was shaky at times last year and will struggle again I think to generate a sufficient pass rush. Against the Bengals that will be too much to overcome. Colts @ Texans -- Ok, the silly predictions end here. I'm mad, but not quite that mad. To be fair to the Texans, they're getting ever closer, gradually creeping up on the Colts. But I still think there is a way to go. The trouble for me is the Texans Defense. When you deduct linebacker Brian Cushing from an already flimsy unit, it just doesn't have the punch that you need to compete with an offense like the Colts. The Texans do have the capability to keep up in a shoot out, but you just know that one slip and it's over. By slip I mean a sack. And when you're facing Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, sacks are more common than the Texans would like. Add the return of safety Bob Sanders to the mix and the Colts defense is very potent. Too potent I'm afraid. Colts win. Broncos @ Jaguars -- My tip for the AFC West opens against a team almost nobody would tip for the AFC South. The Jaguars have finally started to make progress off the field, selling sufficient tickets to avoid a black out for this game. Sadly for the Jaguars their on field product may not match the optimism in the stands. Maurice Jones-Drew is still a dangerous RB, but David Garrard doesn't look like the franchise QB everyone is hoping he would be. Couple that with a defense that doesn't exactly give people nightmares, ranking worst among all teams in 2009 for sacks (14; eight behind the next worse team Kansas) and you have a recipe for defeat. The Broncos meanwhile seem to have finally purged their demons. Brandon Marshall is gone and now - presumably - Head Coach Josh McDaniels is happy with everyone in the building. Kyle Orton leads an offense that is poised to have a good year. The Broncos are happy with a receiving corps that put up a good showing in pre-season and may have finally fixed their rushing attack. The key for the Broncos is defense. With Elvis Dumervil consigned to the injured reserve list once more, somehow the Broncos have to find a way to get to the quarterback. Second year outside linebacker Robert Ayers must lead the way, recapturing the form he found in his last year of college. The back end of the Broncos D is good enough to compensate somewhat, but if the Broncos are going to stand up and be counted this year, they need some pressure from the front seven. Facing Jacksonville is a good early test and I think they pass. Broncos win. Falcons @ Steelers -- This is a tough game to pick a winner from. Pittsburgh may not have Ben Roethlisberger, but they do have safety Troy Polamalu back in the fold. That makes their defense dangerous. We know they can generate pressure on the QB and we know they can stop the run with their front seven. Question is, can they score enough points to off set any defensive slips. Dennis Dixon gets the starting nod for the Steelers and although his passing has looked sometimes suspect, his ability with his feet cannot be ignored. That poses an extra problem for defenses when defending the pass, and that's before we even get to the issue of the Steelers run game, which has a four headed punch in Rashard Mendenhall, Mewelde Moore, Jonathan Dwyer and Issac Redman. Standing before them is an Atlanta team that many people are tipping to have the best shot at unseating the Saints for the NFC South crown. Led by a defense that includes John Abraham and was led in the pre-season by Kroy Biermann & mike linebacker Curtis Lofton, the Falcons are well equipped to get after the Steelers. The big problem for the Falcons D is their relative weakness in the secondary. Against Pittsburgh this is slightly offset by the lack of a true deep threat on the Steelers roster. The Falcons themselves are well accounted for on offense, with Matt Ryan leading a group that will hope to have a big year. They get RB Michael Turner back and in good health which is always a huge positive. For me, the Falcons have the edge. I see their offense being just a little more consistent, especially late in the game and in and around the red zone. Falcons win, but only just. Raiders @ Titans -- The Raiders finally managed to rustle up a pretty good draft in the off season. On top of that they dumped JaMarcus Russell in favour of Jason Campbell. The result seems to have been a sigh relief from within the Raiders team, with players reportedly happier and more optimistic. That optimism is being shared by analysts up and down the country. Except perhaps me (though I'm in a different country so maybe that explains it). I don't think the Raiders will be as craptacular as they have been under Russell, but this is still the Raiders we're talking about. It's still a Raiders team that lacks a stand out receiver. Darren McFadden is still projected to be the starting running back in week one (Michael Bush is injured). And they still have the Raiders O-line. And they still have the Raiders D. Things have improved on this side of the ball. By all accounts Richard Seymour has stepped forward as a leader. The acquisition of Kamerion Wimbley was over looked, but will be important in the weeks ahead. Rookie Rolando McClain also brings some run stopping punch to the outfit. But they're still fundamentally the Raiders. The Titans conversely are still the Titans, which is a good thing. While the Titans may be pushing their luck a little on the RB front (Chris Johnson, Javon Ringer, and FB Ahmard Hall. That's it), they are still a strong overall team. Vince Young has developed as a passer and still remains a serious threat with his feet. Defensively the Titans have all of their starting secondary available from week one. A lot of people seem to be overlooking the fact that at the start of 2009 the Titans had more holes in their secondary than a chunk of Swiss cheese. The same secondary that the season before (2008) had led the Titans to an undefeated streak of ten games to open their campaign. Now that the Titans have finally dumped Kerry Collins to the bench and are leaning more on their excellent running back, I see the Titans edging out the Raiders. Panthers @ Giants -- Hmm, another toughie. Mainly because regardless of what I guess the Panthers will do, they're bound to do the opposite, even if I attempt to play the old bluffing game with them. Thankfully I think the Giants are good enough to overcome that regardless. Tentatively I'm going to say that the Panthers will look at the pre-season debacle that was their offense and decide that what they desperately need right now is to air the ball out even more in the mistaken hope that they will rack up points like a loyalty based credit card. Which of course they wont; because the Giants have a good pass rush and because credit card companies are notoriously stingy with their loyalty points. Eli Manning may not be his brother, but he is pretty good. As long as he stops d**king about at the line of scrimmage trying to be Peyton mark 2, the Giants have a very good chance this season. Their offense is well manned and the addition of defensive coordinator Perry Fewell will hopefully give the defense the guidance it needs to get back to its previous Super Bowl winning form. Giants win. I think. Unless those damn Panthers screw me over again. I hate the Panthers. Lions @ Bears -- The potential bottom feeders of the NFC North come together for what might actually be a good game. Typically when two bad teams meet they struggle to make tackles and get a pass rush going, which ends up with a high scoring game. Don't count on the Bears either. Picking up Julius Peppers in free agency will help the Bears a little (certainly not in the long term though given the cost). The trouble with the Bears is that they needed more than just a "little" help. With key LB Brian Urlacher down injured again, it poses a real question as to where the threat from this defense will come from? Offensively it's just a cluster f**k of problems. The One Man Team Beater (the team in question being his own) Jay Cutler is serving under Mike Martz, a coordinator famous for a) airing the ball out lots (which is part of Cutlers problem) and b) his inability to develop quarterbacks. This last one seems an odd thing to say given that all the hyperbole about Martz for the last few months has centered around his magic skills at working with quarterbacks. But as a 49ers fan I have two words for you: Alex Smith. So, who's the Bears RB? Maybe that will help. Oh, it's Matt Forte. What about the O-line? Forget it. They only seem to know how to concede sacks and get their running back beaten up on a regular basis. What then, about the receivers? Well, their leading receiver is a corner back and punt returner, who is "mentored" by Deion Sanders. The same Deion Sanders who "mentored" Michael Crabtree into an extended contract holdout that has significantly hurt his ability to gel with his team, and the same Deion Sanders who "mentored" WR Dez Bryant into a season long college suspension through his senior year. The Bears are a joke. The Lions used to be. But not any more. Their defense still shares many qualities with that of a sieve, primarily that of having lots of holes, but at least their offense has improved. QB Matthew Stafford has improved and you get the sense that he's a leader with his head planted firmly on his shoulders. Calvin Johnson is... well he's Calvin Johnson. Rookie running back Jahvid Best is already looking like a strong addition to a young group of backs and Nate Burleson brings some experience at the receiver position which will help Staffords' development. Guard Rob Sims was also a good pick up through trade with Seattle. And just in case you haven't guessed already, I'm taking Detroit to win this one. That then, is all the 1:00 pm kick offs. Tomorrow I'll be back to finish off the list of this weekends games, but until then, Have a great day everyone. P.S. For what it's worth, I'd just like to say that I'll be thinking of all those lost in the 9/11 attacks nine years ago and their families.

Pre-season week 4 preivew (part 2)

-- We start with an article from ProFootballTalk.com that warns that attendance at NFL games is expected to fall this year (check it out.... Chris figured out hyperlinks!!). There are all kinds of reasons why this is so, but none can be more prevalent than the NFLs blackout policy. You have to remember that these attendance figures are league wide averages. The Steelers have no problems selling tickets (the waiting list for season tickets is measured in decades). The Jets, Giants, Redskins, Cowboys etc have no problem selling tickets. The problem areas are places like Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Detroit and Cleveland. Partly that would suggest that on-field performance has a strong correlation with ticket sales and that would be true for almost any team sport around the world. But TV blackouts do not help. If you want people to get involved in something - like a football team - then you need exposure. You need local fans to watch the games and get interested in the team. The last thing you need is to deprive people of the ability to watch their hometown side. I think the adage "out of sight, out of mind" comes to the forefront here. -- Next up it's Pat Kirwan, Senior Analyst for NFL.com. Pat used to write good articles. Pat used to write interesting articles. Pat used to be all about the game. But as I've stated before Pat is increasingly treading the road of just pushing whatever the NFL wants pushed. His latest article is a case in point. Pat begins by talking about the hit Kyle Orton took while trying to tackle James Harrison. He makes a point of starting the tale with "In a meaningless third pre-season game..." right out of the Chairman Mao book of propaganda (Get the feeling the NFL is trying to convince you that pre-season games are worthless?). He then continues with "Orton escaped serious injury, but could have also been blown up by a blocker before Harrison had gotten to him." He could have been hit by a falling satellite Pat. I'm not sure I like the sound of where this one is going. He goes on to talk about Phillip Rivers who "might" have hurt himself when he made a TD saving tackle on Cowboys safety Barry Church. He didn't, and in fact his tackling form should put the Cowboys secondary to shame. And he didn't miss the chance to emphasise "... again, in a meaningless game." (Hint, hint, pre-season games are bad. You will believe us!!). He then concludes the segment by suggesting that unless quarterbacks are forced by rule to stop making tackles, then they will continue to try and make tackles to save interception/fumble returns for touchdowns. His final words are "It's time to take them out of the equation for their own good." This, for me, was shocking to read. I can understand when laws are passed, rules created etc, in order to stop someone from endangering others. I have never, ever, agreed that people should be prevented from doing things for "their own good". That's the first act of a dictatorship. And is Pat Kirwan seriously suggesting that we should prevent quarterbacks from making tackles because they might be injured? What else are they supposed to do? Idly stand by and just let a defender return the turnover for a TD? And surely this is the job of the coaches. Surely if they want their quarterbacks to try and make the play then that's up to them. If they don't want them hurt, tell them not to make the tackle! Kirwan is providing the absolute, perfect example of some of the sheer 'idea-bile' that is generated by the NFL sometimes. Only in the modern NFL could someone even consider the possibility of forcing a player, by rule, to not make tackles. All Kirwans article needs now is a section that kisses Peyton Mannings a** over the new rule regarding umpire placement and..... Yeah. He got that in too. Christ sake. Enough. Time to turn back to proper Football talk, by finishing up the last 8 pre-season games: Denver @ Vikings: Sage Rosenfels. Tavaris Jackson. Joe Webb. It's time to stand up and be counted. One of these three is likely leaving this roster before the season begins. Sage has performed the best but may still get the chop as some media types have suggested that Childress is holding onto Jackson just to prove he was right about him all along. Webb on the surface appears to be the odd one out, but as a rookie he has youth on his side and has shown flashes of potential already. The Broncos have their own battle at quarterback to resolve. Orton will finally step aside after a very good pre-season and leave it to Brady Quinn and Tim Tebow to fight for his back up job. Tebow has the edge in shirt sales. He has the edge in media attraction. But absolutely the most important, he has the edge on the field. So far... From my rookie watch list we've spoken about Tebow and DeMaryius Thomas is supposedly still nursing an injury which now leaves RB Toby Gerhart and DE Everson Griffen of the Vikings and Corners Syd'Quan Thompson and Perrish Cox of the Broncos. Shine on boys. Packers @ Chiefs: Remember Graham Harrell? Quarterback for the Texas Tech Red Raiders? Well he's finally going to get a solid crack of the whip in the NFL, albeit in what Pat Kirwan might call a "Meaningless pre-season game" (Tell that to Harrell on the eve of possibly one of the biggest games of his life). On defense, with Al Harris now injured (again) it's likely that Tramon Williams will be kept out of harms way so the Packers secondary backups will also be out for a feeding frenzy on Thursday. Chiefs QB Tyler Palko might get a shot, but I'm guessing Brodie Croyle will take most of the snaps to prepare him for a season behind Matt Cassel. Just looking briefly at my rookie watch list I didn't realise how many Chiefs players were on there! McCluster might play a little but will probably be rested for the most part, as will Safety Eric Berry. That leaves G Jon Asamoah, CB Javier Arenas and S Kendrick Lewis for me to keep an eye on. Dolphins @ Cowboys: Fans watching this one could be in for a hell of a game. Both teams have tentatively suggested they may leave some of their starters in. Well, Coach Sparano wasn't quite so subtle about it. On second thoughts though, the reason both teams may keep their starters in is precisely because they've played so badly in the recent pre-season games. The stupid thing about Miami is that some of their starters have done well. QB Chad Henne has definitely shown improvement from last year. CB Vontae Davis has probably been their best player so far. WR Brandon Marshall is fitting in and TE Anthony Fasano has come along as a receiving threat. They're just lacking something, that final product perhaps. For Dolphins QB Pat White this could be the last chance saloon to prove that he's come along as passer and is not just a gimmick addition. This will be important to watch not only for Dolphins fans but for all of us. If White is cut, the media will jump on this like a pack of ravenous wolves. It will hurt the chances of all future quarterbacks who are considered as runners (even guys like Tebow and McCoy) as the finger pointing begins and the "remember Pat White" stories begin to emerge. As for the Cowboys. Who cares, it's the Cowboys. They'll play well all year then nose dive in the play offs. Consider that a prediction. As for the rookie watch list, we've got two linebackers; Koa Misi and Micah Johnson. Misi may or may not get some good playing time, but Johnson surely will. I'm rooting for you guys. Saints @ Titans: I was dismayed to find out that rookie QB Sean Canfield from my watch list has been cut by the Saints, though given the showing of their other back ups, it's understandable. Fingers crossed that he will land somewhere else on a practice squad and earn his way back into the league. The Saints in general look pretty set for the season ahead. Their secondary has been the only slightly vulnerable looking spot, but I'm guessing that corners Tracy Porter & Jabari Greer will be rested, making a useful comparison after this game difficult. For the Titans the back up running back battle continues, with LaGarrette Blount definitely having the edge. For my watch list there's just one player, LB Rennie Curran who has done well so far. Buccaneers @ Texans: My expectation is that QB Josh Johnson will get another game under his belt, though we might see something of the rookie Jevan Snead. Arrelious Benn and Michael Spurlock will be two receivers worth keeping an eye out for against a sometimes shaky Texan secondary. Defensively I have my eye on LB Dekoda Watson and DT Brian Price from the watch list. I said the Texans secondary was shaky, but I've said that before about the Texans. Like the Panthers though they insist on proving me wrong at every turn, playing like the Lions when I say they're on the up and playing like the Colts when I compare them to the Lions. I hope the Texans lose. Badly. In embarrassing fashion. Chargers @ 49ers: The Chargers D still hasn't learnt to rush the passer consistently so they might be quite happy to travel to Candlestick Park to play the 49ers. San Francisco's line isn't exactly notorious for it's granite like stability and neither David Carr nor Nate Davis are being heralded lately for their quick release. Chargers LB Donald Butler is on the rookie watch list. For the 49ers this might finally be the chance to get a good look at safety Taylor Mays (watch list) as well as the ongoing battle at the Linebacker spot that could see either Manny Lawson or Parys Haralson ultimately get cut. I'm also all eyes open for FB Brit Miller. C'mon Brit! Seahawks @ Raiders: The Charlie Whitehurst saga continues, god help us. Hopefully for Seahawks fans he'll have a better showing this time around. I'm watching the secondary though, looking out for S Kam Chancellor who should see some extended action for a change. The Raiders roster depth meanwhile is a little uncertain so it's still difficult to predict who will be on the field and who will be on the sideline. I imagine Darrius Heyward-Bey will be sent out for another run and we may even get a good look at combine speedster Jacoby Ford (who also showed very good hands at the combine). At QB it's likely that Gradkowski will be kept out of harms way, meaning the Kyle Boller and Colt Brennan will likely share time. Redskins @ Cardinals: With Leinart on the trade block, it all falls to Derek Anderson to go out and just prove to his team that he can at least be a confident, competent leader. Chances are that rookie QB John Skelton will also get a chance to play. Looking at the watch list you'll notice that Charles Scott has been traded to Arizona and is projected to play as a Fullback. Given that his tough running style and sheer power were the things that intrigued me about him, I can see the transition to FB being a relatively easy one for him. DT Dan Williams and LB Daryl Washington are also watch listers for the Cardinals. The Redskins have some tough choices to make at Running Back. They now have five potential backs and they're not all going to make the final roster. Given that Portis will probably lead the way and that the Redskins will want to invest in a bit of youth, chances are that either Larry Johnson or Willie Parker is set for the chop. My guess is that Parker will go, which is a shame. I'll be expecting someone to pick Parker up for a bargain contract in the near future. That then is that. 16 "meaningless" games accounted for and ready to be played. I'll be back tomorrow to recap them all at some point, probably segmenting them a little based on their respective kick off times. Till then, Have a great day everyone.

Saturday Night Football round up

Saturday Night Results time: -- Browns 27 @ Lions 35: There's a funny thing about football. Typically when two good teams get together, the end result is rubbish. They're so good, so tight and play so conservatively that they often end up having a boring contest. Conversely when you put two bad teams together, the result is often an explosive and sometimes comical clash. This is what happened when two bad teams came together again. A Browns FG got us started, then Stafford found Johnson (Bryant, not Calvin) in the end zone. Then Eric Wright returned a fumble to the end zone for the Browns before Jake Delhomme found Lawrence Vickers with a 5-yard TD pass. Then Lions DB Chris Houston returned a Browns fumble for a score, only for the Browns to hit back with a TD run by Peyton Hillis to end the first half scoring. The second half scoring began with a Kevin Smith TD run for the Lions from 2-yards out, followed by another Browns FG. Two short TD runs by Lions RB Aaron Brown finally put the game to bed. Jake Delhomme finished 20/25 for 152 yards and a TD...... and 0 INTs!! Colt McCoy finished 10/14 for 76 yards and made a valiant attempt at a last drive down the field with about 4 minutes remaining but it was not to be. Matthew Stafford finished 13/17 for 141 yards and a TD. Jahvid Best led the Lions in rushing yards, taking his sole carry for 51 yards and showing good vision to use his blockers down field. -- Bengals 20 @ Bills 35: Robin may have got his TD, but Mr. Freeze wins the Twitter battle (well, technically Mr. Freezes minions do). It began with Carson Palmer to Jermaine Gresham for a TD, followed by Trent Edwards to Roscoe Parrish to tie the score. Then Palmer found Ochocinco to make it 14-7, only for C.J. Spiller to come back with 2 rushing TDs for the Bills. A third quarter FG gave the Bengals hope, then Ryan Fitzpatrick found David Nelson with a 20 yard TD pass to crush it. The Bengals mustered another FG, but then Jordan Palmer (confused?) looked right, threw right.... and was picked off for six by the most aptly named CB in the league; Reggie Corner. Carson Palmer finished 9/11 for 95 yards and 2 TDs. Jordan Palmer; 7/12 for 116 yards and an INT. Cedric Benson led the Bengals on the ground with 8 carries for 50 yards and Quan Cosby topped the receivers with 4 catches for 82 yards. Bengals LB Brandon Johnson tied for the lead on his team for tackles with Roddrick Muckelroy (on my rookie watch list) with 5. Geno Atkins (also on the list) bagged himself yet another sack. For the Bills Trent Edwards finished 13/17 for 153 yards and a TD. Ryan Fitzpatrick came home with 6/9 for 77 yards and a TD. Naturally C.J. Spiller led the Bills backs with 12 carries for 52 yards and 2 TDs. Roscoe Parrish topped the receivers with four catches for 56 yards and a TD. -- Jaguars 19 @ Buccaneers 13: They say that lightning never strikes in the same place twice. One thing it certainly does seem to do is to follow the Jaguars around wherever they go, delaying their games like an ominous attempt from above to delay the inevitable. Except in this case the Jags won, so maybe it worked in their favour. After exchanging field goals, Josh Johnson found RB Earnest Graham to give the Bucs' a 10-3 lead, with the Jags pulling back another FG before half time. The third quarter saw another exchange of field goals, then Luke McCown zipped a beauty 27 yards to John Matthews to make it 16-13, with a 4th quarter FG by the Jags wrapping it up. Garrard ended the game 24/31 for 211 yards and an INT, while Luke McCown went 9/14 for 76 yards, a TD and an INT. Josh Johnson led the Bucs' with 9/14 for 122 yards and a TD, while his replacement Rudy Carpenter went 4/13 for 37 yards and then threw a pick on a last hope jump ball. Rookie Buccaneers WR Mike Williams (4th round, 101st overall) has been getting rave reviews in camp and finished the game with 3 catches for 83 yards. The Bucs' also provided the only true defensive standouts, with CB Ronde Barber and LB Quincy Black both recording 7 tackles. -- Giants 10 @ Ravens 24: It was over almost before it began. A FG and two 2nd quarter touchdowns for the Ravens was met by the Giants with a single field goal. In the 4th quarter an exchange of TDs left the differential where it had been at half time. Manning played and went 9/18 for 63 yards and an INT, while Rhett Bomar produced 10/20 for 140 yards and a TD pass to WR Victor Cruz who continues to impress, leading the Giants with 4 catches for 76 yards and a TD. For the Ravens, Flacco went 21/34 for 229 yards, 2 TDs (Todd Heap and Anquan Boldin) and an INT. Troy Smith also impressed with 8/11 for 71 yards and a TD. The rushing standout for the game was Giants RB Brandon Jacobs, who notched 41 yards from 6 carries and showed a surprising burst to get to the outside and turn up field. Defensively the Giants finally got some pass rush together, bagging 5 sacks total (2 for Rocky Bernard, 2 for Justin Tuck and 1 from Linval Joseph). Antrel Rolle led the team in tackles with 7. For the Ravens, Haruki Nakamura came up with an interception which - coupled with his special teams play recently - might just be enough to grab a roster spot. -- Cowboys 7 @ Texans 23: It's early days yet. There's still time to improve. It's not the end of the world to lose a few games in pre-season. It's not a true reflection of how we'll play in the regular season. These are all lines Head Coach Wade Philips will be trying to feed the press over the next few weeks to try and convince them that the world as Dallas knows it is not about to implode. I personally believe however, that Wade Phillips is a coaching genius. Yes, a genius. Because (yes, I know; grammar) there is only one possible explanation as to why Tony Romo was playing like Curtis Painter, why the Cowboys RBs have hardly been seen all pre-season (a combined 9 carries for Choice, Barber and Jones in this game) and why the Cowboys D looked like the Lions D. Phillips is saving it all for week one. Like a cunning general of yester year, he is hiding away his forces true strength while putting on a ruse, a display to lull his enemies into a false sense of security. It's either that, or the Cowboys are in some serious s**t this season. Romo went 13/18 for 146 yards and an INT, while giving up some tough sacks and some hilarious fumbles. The Texans did slightly better. Matt Schaub went 18/29 for 183 yards and a TD. Arian Foster did the impossible and actually produced a 100 yard rusher for the Texans, getting 110 yards and a TD off 18 carries. The defense produced 3 sacks and the O-line kept Schaub upright all through the game. It's almost like they read my preview post from yesterday and did the complete opposite. I mean, if this had been a regular season game they'd have definitely cost me a pick as well as making me look like a right a**. Wait... this seems familiar.... like.... Carolina.......... !! ........... I hate the Texans. -- Seahawks 13 @ Vikings 24: When Favre threw a pick to rookie safety Earl Thomas who returned it for a TD, Seahawks fans could be forgiven for thinking that they were about to take a big scalp. Sadly not, as Adrian Peterson then rumbled home on a powerful 24 yard run to level the score. TD passes from Sage Rosenfels and Joe Webb to Javon Walker and Ryan D'Imperio respectively sealed the deal (plus FGs). Favre finished 16/26 for 187 yards and 2 INTs, as well as fumbling on a sack by Chris Clemons. Rosenfels did better; 5/6, 71 yards and a TD. Charlie Whitehurst 'led' the Seahawks with 12/26 for 138 yards and an INT, while Matt Hasselbeck ended up with 9/17 for 126 yards. Chris Clemons stood out defensively for the Seahawks, getting 3 tackles, 2 sacks and a forced fumble. The Vikings D also managed a combined 3 sacks. -- Titans 7 @ Panthers 15: See, this is what I'm talking about! This is why I hate the Panthers! Since when, WHEN has the Panthers D in the last few years ever produced 7 sacks?! SEVEN! A** clowns. Even despite this the Titans still appeared to be heading for victory when Kerry Collins found Jerry Cook in the 4th quarter for a TD. But on the ensuing kick off the Titans inexplicably managed to pile four guys onto RB Mike Goodson without bringing him down and with a superb second effort he broke free and carried the ball all the way to the house for 91 yard kick return TD. Kerry Collins finished 6/10 112 yards, a TD and an INT. Vince Young; 6/9 for 48 yards. Matt Moore led the Panthers QB pair with 18/33 for 190 yards. Jimmy Clausen 4/5 for 79 yards. What really boggles the mind is that the Titans hardly called on their rushing attack. Chris Johnson received just 10 carries and Blount and Ringer combined for just 9 more. Defensively the Titans stand out was rookie DB Alterraun Verner (appearing soon in a Star Wars movie near you) with 5 tackles, an assist and a forced fumble. The Panthers D was lead in tackles by LB Jon Beason with 5. DE Charles Johnson ended with 4 tackles and 2 sacks. Greg Hardy, Richard Marshall, Everette Brown, Charles Godfrey and Eric Moore all took home a single sack each. Brown in particular looked quick on his feet and was in among the pressure all game long. 3rd year corner Brian Witherspoon capped the show with 2 INTs. I hate the Panthers. -- Cardinals 14 @ Bears 9: I like the Bears. You know what you're getting with the Bears. You know that a) their rushing attack will be chronic and b) Jay Cutler will inevitably bottle it and throw a few Interceptions. This game being a case in point. Maybe a little harsh. Chester Taylor led the Bears backs with 36 yards off 5 carries (Bears fans; just gloss over the 34 yard run that contributed most of the yards). Cutler finished 10/20 for 129 yards and 2 INTs. Dan LeFevour did better; 10/12 for 110 yards and a TD. For the Cardinals both Anderson and Leinart did well. Anderson; 7/12, 94 yards and a TD. Leinart; 9/10 for 84 yards and a TD. Tim Hightower was the RB stand out with 8 carries for 62 yards and the Cardinals rookie WR Steven Williams led all WR with 5 catches for 79 yards and a TD. -- 49ers 28 @ Raiders 24: Roll on week 6! Well, Kind of. Jason Campbell went out injured after going 6/8 for 93 yards, which meant that Bruce Gradkowski experienced a little deja vu, stepping in once again for the starting QB in Oakland. And you have to feel sorry for Gradkowski. Once more he took the chance with both hands and posted 14/22 for 202 yards and 2 TDs. One day you'll get your shot Bruce. One day. Louis Murphy led the Raiders receivers with 2 catches for 87 yards and a TD. On the '9ers side, Alex Smith went 9/15 for 113 yards and a TD. David Carr; 7/17 for 54 yards. Frank Gore was finally let loose... for 2 carries. Not one to complain, Gore promptly ripped off a 49 yard run, ploughing defenders with his shoulder along the way and finishing the game with 58 yards. Brain Westbrook also got a look in, taking 2 carries for 17 yards. The heaviest load fell on Anthony Dixon once more, who shall hence forth be known as "The Golden Mule", carrying the ball 21 times for 69 yards and a TD, in addition to 3 catches for a further 15 yards. Defensively for the Raiders it was first round pick Rolando McClain who led the way with 6 tackles and 2 assists. For the 49ers, you guessed it, Patrick Willis; 7 tackles, an assist and a sack. Well, that appears to be it for the day. Only one game remains now in pre-season week 3 as the Steelers travel to the Broncos for some Monday Night Football, but I'll be f***ed if I'm doing the preview right now. Must sleep. Hmm, sleepy, sleepy. Have a great day everyone.

Week 13 Thursday Night pick

It's Wednesday night, which can only mean one thing. Err, Thursday Night Football!!! Well, my Thursday night pick at least: Jets @ Bills -- This, for me, is a trap game. A lot depends on the approach that one team takes to this contest. Last time they played, the Jets tore a huge, gaping, massive hole through the Bills D. But they lost the game because they tried to be clever and throw it despite their obvious dominance on the ground (more on that later). The result was Mark Sanchez offering picks all over the place which the Bills secondary, and in particular safety Jairus Byrd, gobbled up. So the question is thus; can the Jets keep Sanchez's throwing to a minimum and let Thomas Jones and Shonne Greene tear the Bills a new one? Honestly, I don't see them doing it. They love the thought of the "Sanchise" way too much. That, coupled with the Bills offensive resurgence of late (getting the ball to Terrell Owens and realising that Fred Jackson is better than Marshawn Lynch) combines to give the Bills the win. I think. I hope. Bills win. And now from Buffalo to the global ether that is the Internet, and more specifically, to NFL.com. Senior analyst Pat Kirwan recently wrote an article (if your quick, it may still be on the front page) claiming that the end of "run the football and play great defense" may be at hand, and that the NFL is about to become a must-pass-first league. This nearly knocked me out of my chair. Either one of three things has happened here: a) A perfectly sane and normally excellent analyst was drugged, and in his pharmopsychologically (???) induced state, he temporarily went insane and wrote this article, or b) He was held at gun point by officials from the pass happy NFL who forced him to write the article, as they would love nothing more than (and have tried relentlessly) to see the NFL become a slightly more expensive version of flag football, or c) He actually meant it. My money is on a sort of bizarre combination of the first two. It has to be. No right minded, football loving (and football knowledgeable) individual would surely claim that if teams want to win the Superbowl these days, then they must abandon the concept of the run and solid defense, and instead kit themselves out with a first class passing attack. It makes no sense. Let's look at some opposite sides of the coin shall we? First, the top five teams for passing yards per game. These are, from top to bottom; Colts, Patriots, Texans, Saints, Cardinals. The Colts are undoubtedly the leagues leaders in passing. Peyton Manning leads a pass heavy attack that often functions like a well oiled machine. The Colts are also unbeaten. But they do have a tendency to fall behind until late in the game. The have a tendency to win games by the smallest of margins. They have a tendency to be otherwise out of a game until a handy flag appears (more on that later). And they are really only doing so well because this year their defense has played out of it's skin. Compare the Colts with the Patriots. The Pats put 59 on the board against the Titans which is the highest points tally scored by a single team, in one game, this season. There is no question that at times, Brady and his trusty receivers can make NFL defenses look average. But the Patriots defense has often come up short this season and subsequently the team as a whole has suffered. For a comparison, look no further than the Texans. Admittedly they've had some woes in the kicking game, but by and large, their very aggressive and competent pass offense has been unable to cover for the sore lack of talent on their defense. A problem the Saints have not had this season. Last season they did. The Saints still had an explosive passing attack. They lead the league in both passing and scoring. Drew Brees nearly cracked Dan Marinos record for passing yards in a single season. But ultimately the Saints finished 8-8 and bottom of the NFC South. The difference this year has been down to three things; a better running game, a much improved defense, and some lucky games where teams handed them the win. There is no glossing over that. Their high octane offense is not the reason they are undefeated. It's the more mundane "run the ball and play great defense" aspects that have turned them around. Sentiments shared by the Arizona Cardinals. The Cards made it to the Superbowl last year. They got a huge helping hand by virtue of playing in the NFC West, a virtue that has served them well again this season. They got a another helping hand in the playoffs courtesy of the Carolina Panthers (I hate the Panthers) who tried to play them at their own game and ended up turning the ball over 6 times from the QB position. This year the Cardinals were having problems again. Enter Chris 'Beanie' Wells and Tim Hightower, who have breathed life into an otherwise lacklustre rushing attack, helped in no small part by their Head Coach's desire to run the ball more. Still, the outlook for the Cards' this season is a little gray. Compare now if you will the other end of the spectrum, by looking at the top five teams for rushing yardage per game. These are, from top to bottom; Titans, Jets, Dolphins, Panthers, Saints. The Saints we've already covered and so need not trouble ourselves with again. But the other four teams have an interesting story to tell. Other than their high rushing yardage, they all share one bizarre trait in common. They throw the ball too much. Yes, too much. At the start of the season the Titans went with QB Kerry Collins. For some as yet unknown reason they decided that Collins would be their savior. Despite going 13-3, including a ten game winning streak the previous season, they largely abandoned their rushing attack and instead tried to get creative through the air. The end result was 8 interceptions and just a 54% completion rate in 6 games. Then they switched to Vince Young and started to focus more on their league leading rushing attack and now, surprise, surprise, they've won 5 on the trot. The story is familiar to all the four teams we're looking at now, not least the Jets. So far, Mark Sanchez has managed to clock up no less than 17 interceptions for the New Yorkers. It seems that no matter how hard Thomas Jones and Shonne Greene work on the ground, they can always rely on their QB to give the opposition a chance to get back into the game. Against the Bills in Week 6 the Jets ran the ball 40 times and clocked up 318 net yards rushing. That's about comparable with a lot of good QBs total yardage after throwing 40 times. But alas for the Jets, 30 pass attempts yielded just 96 net yards passing (when you take into account sacks) and a combined 6 interceptions (5 by Sanchez). Had they continued to run the ball more in a game which they were dominating on the ground, they would have firmly put the Bills in their place. The Dolphins can sympathise with this. When they met the New Orleans Saints in Week 7 (supposedly the best team in the NFL right now) they got off to a flying start. With the clock ticking away at the end of the first half, they lead 24-3. Thanks to a dumb timeout call they ended up going in leading just 24-10 instead of 24-6. And from there, things began to unravel. Chad Henne completed just 18/36 passes in the whole game and threw two interceptions in the second half, both returned for touchdowns. Miami abandoned it's run game for much of the second half and were brutally punished as a result. This is just one of many incidents where Miami has wandered from it's strengths and shot itself in the foot. But the true masters of this are the Carolina Panthers. They literally are the undisputed champions of throwing more than is healthy for them. Just look at QB Jake Delhomme. 18 interceptions. Only Jay Cutler has thrown more. But at least the Bears have an excuse. They have no run game to speak of (which is not Matt Forte's fault). The Panthers have DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, arguably the best running back tandem in the entire NFL. They have no excuse for throwing the ball as much as they do. And it's cost them games. Last year it cost them their place in the playoffs. Had they not blown it so fantastically against the Cardinals, they had a good shout at going all the way. Passing didn't help them win a Superbowl, it hindered them. All in all, the point I'm trying to make is that 'running the football and playing great defense', as a concept, is far from dead. Passing first and building your team around an explosive pass attack is not the way to win the Superbowl. Those that believe it will are headed for a serious head on collision with reality. And what makes this more frustrating is that I recently read on a college/high school coaches Internet forum that they are all expecting teams in the next five years to become much more run orientated to combat 'pass orientated defenses'. They profess that the cat and mouse game of offense/defense will cycle around and that power football will become en vogue once more. They believe they have wisely forseen the future of football by predicting this trend. No doubt they will smugly laugh and pat each other on the back, and claim that they all ought to be NFL coaches. The stark reality is that running the football has never been ineffective. There are ineffective ways of rushing and there are ineffective players in many rushing attacks (cough *Bears*), but running the football as a concept is perfectly sound, even now. It has nothing to do with 'pass orientated defenses' and everything to do with being solid, fundamental football. (I should just point out that the same coaching forum never hesitates to expound the virtues of the passing game and in particular the 'Spread'; the very thing that is sinking so many pro teams). And on one final note, I'd like to draw your attention to the Indianapolis Colts and their seemingly endless stream of pass interference calls. Now it's a given that a team that passes a lot is more likely to encounter a greater number of pass interference flags. They are simply presenting more opportunities for their receivers to be fouled. But you have to draw the line somewhere. The call they got on Sunday against the Texans was ludicrous. If it wasn't for a flag, the Colts game against the Patriots would likely have ended in a markedly different manner. Why is this of any significance? Like the Saints, it shows that luck has had no small part to play in their undefeated season so far, and it should serve as a caution to those who would tag them as 'the best team in the NFL'. Right, that's all for today. Tomorrow I'll be recapping the Jets/Bills game, Friday will bring my picks for the all the weekends NFL action, and on Saturday I'll try and convince you that the most important players on any team are the linemen....... And as always, if you're reading the blog and you like it, feel free to: a) use the feedback boxes at the bottom of the post, b) leave a comment, c) spread the word, Wherever you're and whatever you're doing (providing it's legal), have a good day.