Week 3 NFL picks (part 2)

Time now then to finish off my picks for week 3: Redskins @ Rams -- Tougher than you might think. Both teams had a torrid time last year but both have taken strides to recovery in 2010. Sam Bradford is developing ok, but we really need to see more from the Rams receivers in order to help him out. Steven Jackson is still one of the best backs in football but again you look at the Rams depth chart behind him and kind of sigh. If Jackson gets injured then the Rams are shot, so naturally I think they have a tendency to be protective of him. The Redskins have a different problem. They have a lot of talented players on both sides of the ball. But how do they get maximum value from them? That's the question the Redskins are still trying to solve. They beat up on a poor Texans D last week, but they struggled against the Cowboys more competent unit. I can see them doing enough to come away from St. Louis with a win. Redskins for the W. Eagles @ Jaguars -- The Eagles are going to be a difficult team to judge in the coming weeks. Their offense still has a lot of great weapons but their defense is also giving up lots of yards and points. The linebacking corps looks positively devoid. The trouble for Jacksonville is that they're no better. Maurice Jones-Drew hasn't been the force he was last year and David Garrard is ureliable. I'm going to have to take the Eagles. Colts @ Broncos -- Like the Dallas/Houston game, I've struggled with this one. The typical answer most people would give is "Colts", without a seconds hesitation. But I can't shake this nagging feeling (would that be the same one that said 'Bills over Packers' last week?). The Broncos have a lot going for them. Orton is good QB. He has good receivers and the match up of Demaryius Thomas against the Colts undersized secondary is going to be a nightmare. But how will the Broncos D match up against the Colts? Pierre Garcon will be missing for the Colts, but that still leaves Austin Collie, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark to match up against a Broncos secondary that could be missing Champ Bailey and Andre Goodman (which you shouldn't be worried about having put Perrish Cox and Syd'Quan Thompson on your rookie watch list). The Colts have the superior pass rush in theory, but I just don't know. I'm going to have to say...... Broncos win. Raiders @ Cardinals -- Hmm, choices, choices. A struggling Cardinals team against a struggling Raiders team. An inconsistent passer against an entire offense of inconsistency. A defense that just got hammered into the floor by Atlanta against a defense that is used to getting hammered on a regular basis. I'll probably regret this but I'm siding with the Raiders. Just think that Gradkowski will tip the balance here. Chargers @ Seahawks -- The Chargers got a bit of their mojo back last week, while the Seahawks got a bit of their mojo sapped away. So who wins the battle of the mojo hunters? Well the loss of Ryan Matthews hasn't exactly helped the Chargers cause, but given the relative strengths of the two teams, I think they have more in reserve than the Seahawks. Chargers win. Jets @ Dolphins -- Oh boy! A Jets team minus CB Darrelle Revis and with a yo-yo at QB versus a Dolphins team that has established an early trend for dominating defense coupled with pi** poor offense. If Sanchez doesn't step up then the Jets are in big trouble, but if he can replicate his form from last week then the Dolphins will likely struggle to catch up. The Dolphins just need a spark from somewhere. Whether it's Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams on the ground or some big catch and runs from Brandon Marshall through the air. Maybe it's tight end Anthony Fasano with some great red zone play. If the Dolphins can just get that - some momentum on offense - then things will be fine. They'd bl**dy better because I'm taking the Dolphins. Packers @ Bears -- It's easy to dimiss the Bears accomplishments this season as luck; having escaped defeat at the hands of the Lions due to a dubious ruling and defeat at the hands of the Cowboys due to their ineptness. So I will. Packers win. Have a great day everyone.

Week two NFL picks part 2

Time at last to finish off my picks for week two, starting with the Seahawks at the Broncos: Seahawks @ Broncos -- Always good to start on a tough one. The trouble with Seattle is simple; yes they blew away the 49ers, but the 49ers were woeful. Was it a lucky start or a legitimate sign of things to come? At the minute my money is on the Seahawks catching a break week one but not week two. I think the Broncos are better than their performance last week and certainly need a good showing to put a hot poker to the teams butt. Kyle Orton is a better QB than people give him credit for, so I'm siding with the Broncos for this one. Broncos win. Rams @ Raiders -- On paper you could argue that this will be a terrible game, especially given the recent seasons that these two teams have had. But I actually thinks this might be quite a good game, a dark horse "watcher". Both teams have a point to prove, in that all their off season moves (including those from the last few drafts etc) have been building towards some kind of long term perfect storm that we were all over looking. At the very least they should be up for kicking seven bells of s**t out of each other. I'm backing the Rams (on the condition they don't throw it 50+ times in the game, in which case my pick defaults to the Raiders). Texans @ Redskins -- Forget it. I'm mental, but I'm not taking the Redskins. No way. I know they beat the Cowboys last week and I know that I hate the Texans, but it's not happening. I shall not fall into the Donovan McNabb trap. Yes he is a pretty good QB, but it's still the Redskins offense along with all that entails. And besides, no matter what the Texans do this week offensively, I'm fairly certain they can over power the Redskins. Hear that Texans? It means that no matter what I predict you to do and no matter how hard you try to do the opposite, it'll still end the same way. So please kindly produce a repeat of the offense that nailed the Colts last week. Texans win. Patriots @ Jets -- I'm now officially sick of hearing about "Revis island". As many others have pointed out, some with access to the NFLs "all 22" film, there really is no Revis Island. Revis has received just as much safety help as a number of other corners in the league. In addition this whole business that Revis might have a minor hamstring injury heading into the game sounds like a perfect excuse to cover the use of a safety over the top of Revis and/or to hide his blushes should Moss come out and tear Revis a new one. Given the amount of smack talk we've had from the Jets, coupled with Revis calling Moss a slouch, it's no wonder that they're anxious of the possibility that the Patriots might be about to drown them in points. Especially as the Patriots are looking red hot right now. Patriots win. Jaguars @ Chargers -- I have absolutely no clue. I don't particularly fancy either team to be honest, but I probably fancy the Jaguars just a bit less. I can see the Chargers bringing rookie Ryan Matthews more into the game, which will be a big positive for San Diego. Chargers win. Giants @ Colts -- For some reason everyone seems to believe that Peyton Manning and the Colts are going to win this week based purely off the fact that the last time the Colts lost their opening two games was way back in Mannings rookie year. Well I'm sorry, but there are plenty of better reasons to suggest that the Colts will lose this one like; their poor run defense, the strong Giants pass rush, because I hate Peyton Manning (ok, so that's not a valid reason). Anyway, I don't think people are giving the Giants anywhere near enough credit. Giants win. Saints @ 49ers -- Give me a break. It's bad enough that this week we've been privy to a very open and ugly bust up in the 49ers organisation, which Mike Singletary has tried - and completely failed - to cover up. But now we have to play New Orleans? As much as I felt the Saints Super bowl run/win from last year was the product of an incredibly fluky series of games to even get them into the playoffs, I still respect Drew Brees and their offense (just not the defense). Given then how bad the 49ers D looked last week, coupled with the fact that our offense has possibly got worse since last year (no, I didn't think it could either) and I'm afraid I'm going to have to go against my team this week. Saints win. And there we have it, all my week 2 picks done. Honestly speaking, I'm incredibly uncomfortable with a lot of them. There are plenty of games that really could be decided by just a single big play, while many of those team are still unsure about who they are this year and how they're going to play. That's going to cause pick problems probably all the way up to about week four I'd imagine. Still, must press on. Nothing ventured, nothing gained, as they say. Have a great day everyone.

Week 1 NFL picks (part 3?)

Continuing the preview of this weekends games, it's time to look at the final 6, starting with: Cardinals @ Rams -- Tricky, simply because neither of these teams is the team they were last season. If that makes any sense at all. Both have undergone an over haul at the QB position, which is good for the Rams and bad for the Cardinals. Arizona lost Kurt Warner to the allure of TV football punditry and gardening, while the Rams finally made a move at the QB spot and brought in highly rated Sam Bradford. For the Cardinals it was also a watershed moment in a way when they released Matt Leinart. With the Raiders high profile release of JaMarcus Russell also coming this season, it seems like teams are taking advantage of the uncapped year to dump their wasters and begin rebuilding for the new decade. Unfortunately for Arizona they're rebuilding with Derek Anderson. There's been a lot of talk about things he's done in the past with the Browns etc, but let's get it straight; Anderson had trouble fighting off Brady Quinn in Cleveland. Ok, Brady Quinn. Any optimism held out by Cardinals fans may evaporate rather rapidly this season. Arizona's best shot is the RB combo of Tim Hightower and Chris "Beanie" Wells being able to draw some attention away from the passing game. Difficult, considering Larry Fitzgerald is still out there. The Rams have more reason to smile. Sam Bradford has been good so far, albeit in the pre-season. Their defense has finally started to produce some sacks. Albeit in the pre-season. Even their receivers have stepped up their game a notch. Albeit, in the pre-season. Arizona presents the first test for a team and a city that has a noticeable bounce back in it's step. Albeit, in the pre-season. I'm going to go on a limb here and take the positive attitude and renewed enthusiasm of the Rams for a win. Did I really just take the Rams over the Cardinals? Packers @ Eagles -- The Packers are perfectly set, like the Jets and the Ravens, for the most amazing of downfalls. Everywhere you turn, the Packers are being pushed as the number one pick for the Super Bowl, a sure fire choice that cant possibly fail. Personally I have them down for the NFC North, but a lot can change between now and February. Not tonight though. I like Kevin Kolb, but I worry it's going to be more of the same for the Eagles. More bad challenges, more bad play calls. A stark inability to score once in the red zone etc. The Eagles really need their defense to come alive for them this year. More pressure and more picks, trying to ease the load on an offense that can best be described as 'inconsistent'. The Packers are poised to unleash their offensive and defensive fury, but as with all highly hyped teams (re: the Dallas Cowboys) the trouble is pushing past the hype and actually getting it done on the field. Week 1 I think they do. Packers win. 49ers @ Seahawks -- The revolving door in Seattle has barely finished spinning when someone else walks in and someone else leaves. It's getting almost ridiculous. And having thrown away their leading receiver from last year in a bid to start a youth movement, I think Seattle is actually looking a lot weaker than people think. With Matt Hasselbeck at QB and Seneca Wallace gone to Cleveland you also know they're just one injury away from it all going down the pan. The 49ers meanwhile have just chucked a new contract at Vernon Davis and are preparing for a season that could see them finally return to the playoffs. Certainly with the division the way it is now, this might be their best shot. Their defense was up there among the best last year for generating sacks and offensively Alex Smith will be settling in to another season with Jimmy Raye as his offensive coordinator. Smith has shown he can he can make the full range of passes now and tight end Vernon Davis lead the league last year in regular season TD catches. Given the balance of the two sides, I'm going to have to side with very own 49ers. Cowboys @ Redskins -- Adam Schein of FOXSports has tipped the Redskins to go 10-6 this season. I would be surprised if they even manage the reverse of that at 6-10. Seriously? The Redskins? This is a team that thought it was on top of the world in the off season. They landed one of the biggest coaching 'names' out there in Mike Shanahan, then scooped up Donovan McNabb to QB the team. Since then they've completely mishandled the situation with their premier defensive tackle (if you don't agree talent wise, then at least in salary). And the saga continues even to this day with almost daily talk regarding whether Haynesworth will work with the number twos or whether he'll be starting etc. The mood coming from Redskins camp seems to be very much unbalanced. Some of the players have spoken out against Haynesworth, some just seem to want it all resolved and to get the best players out there on the field. It's the perfect time for Dallas to strike their first blow in the NFC East. And let's not forget, Dallas still has one of the best collections of talented football players in the league. They have a pro bowl QB, a pro bowl TE, a pro bowl WR, a pro bowl tackle and linebackers, some pro bowl secondary players. It's just nuts how good of a team the Cowboys actually are. On paper. The trouble is bringing it all together. Which I see them doing tonight in Washington. Cowboys win. Ravens @ Jets -- The Jets have been the subject of more media attention than I can ever remember being directed at one team. And on such a grand stage it's only fitting that the main actors fall flat on their face for our amusement. The Jets have lost pass rush specialist Calvin Pace. Their offense is still a mess, after dumping one of the best backs in football right now. Sanchez is still young and looks a little shaky at times. Braylon Edwards still hasn't learnt to take his hands away from his face mask on deep balls. Santonio Holmes starts on a suspension. The Ravens on the other hand are missing Ed Reed but have more than able back ups for him. Their special teams unit is well fitted and the rest of their defense is strong. They've added two great receivers in the off season and still have a butt kicking run game. I just can't look past the Ravens for this one. Chargers @ Chiefs -- It's been a week of suspicious picks, one that I will potentially look back on with much regret. It is only right then, that I end on another suspicious call. I'm taking the Chiefs. Honestly, I think throughout pre-season we didn't see the best the Chiefs had to offer. Thomas Jones barely played a few downs. By comparison I think the Chargers have gone all out to make their pre-season a good one and dispel rumours that without Marcus McNeil at LT and Vincent Jackson at WR they will fail. And they failed. Scary as it might sound, I'm looking at the Chiefs secondary and although I'm not falling over with sheer admiration for them, I do see potential and I see Eric Berry having a good game. I'm confident in the rushing attack of Jones and Jamaal Charles and I think Chris Chambers and Dwayne Bowe are not receiving the credit they deserve. The question is whether Romeo Crennel can knock this defense into shape, especially the shape needed to take on the Chargers high flying offense. I'm going to take a leap of faith with Kansas and say yes, yes they can. Chiefs win. I'll be back later, at some point to recap the games. I should point out here that I've just grabbed a new job with new hours, so I'm not sure how all this is going to fit together yet and it might take a week or two to settle into a comfortable routine. I'll do my best to keep things flowing smoothly. Have a great day everyone.

Pre-season week 4 preview (part 1)

We'll start briefly with some news and then we'll hit the preview for the first eight of Thursdays 16 pre-season games. -- Brett Favre catches our attention first. Favre has told Sports Illustrated that he is unsure whether his ankle will hold up to the rigors of the season ahead. Which is basically Favre speak for "I'm not sure how well we're going to play this season, best divert blame from myself". Nice to see him getting the excuses in early after a less than stellar game against the Seahawks. -- The NFL competition committee has concluded that Peyton Manning was right; the rule on the refs new position should be changed to specifically accommodate teams that run a no-huddle offense outside of the final two minutes of a half. And people wonder where fans get the idea that the NFL is being deliberately contorted into a pass first league or that teams like the Colts get favourable treatment? Think about the tuck rule for a minute. How long have we had that rule? How many times have pro-players from both sides of the ball, offense and defense, from all positions, complained about that? How many times have people spoken out against it? How many Head Coaches have complained about that stupid, mother f***ing tuck rule? But here we are, in 2010, with the rule still in place. Yet when Manning speaks out about a new rule, it's been changed almost immediately! Literally less than a week later and the rule has been altered! Are you kidding me? -- And finally, Jay Glazer of FoxSports has reported on his twitter account that several of his sources are telling him that the Cardinals have indeed begun to shop QB Matt Leinart. There's no word so far on what the asking price might be but it's unlikely to amount to anything more than a conditional pick in 2011. Right. Preview time!! It's week 4 of the pre-season so be prepared to see very little of the marquee names, while keeping a beady eye out for some hard fighting rookies and fringe veterans. Starting with: -- Bills @ Lions: Stoppable force meets movable object. Namely, the Bills offense against the Lions D. It's unlikely that C.J. Spiller will be called upon to play after a very impressive showing already in the pre-season. That leaves the Bills back at square one; leaning on a QB nobody trusts (any of them) throwing to receivers that nobody has faith in (any of them except maybe Lee Evans). Helping their cause is the potential that Ndamukong Suh and Kyle Vanden Bosch will not play, leaving the Lions defense back at square one; .... just plain terrible. So all eyes are on their offense. With Jahvid Best and Matthew Stafford watching from the sidelines, it's the perfect opportunity for Shaun Hill and Drew Stanton to battle for the back up QB job, while Aaron Brown and Kevin Smith fight for what looks like a place behind Best. -- Bengals @ Colts: Work of art laid out on the turf of Lucas Oil stadium. Or not, as the case may be. Curtis Painter will undoubtedly step up to the plate once more for the kind of unique spectacle that only he can provide. I'm flipping the coin of destiny now..... and it says heads; Painter has a good game! Stupid coin. So there you have it, scientific methodology at its best. Curtis Painter will rock the field on Thursday. As for the Bengals, my main focus is on the members of my rookie watch list, namely; WR Jordan Shipley, DT Geno Atkins, LB Roddrick Muckelroy and WR Dezmon Briscoe. It's unlikely that Carson Palmer will play for anything more than a few snaps, if that, so I'm not holding out high expectations of the two receivers. That said, if there was ever a way to get noticed on a team that possesses Chad Ochocino and Terrell Owens, then it's to make the back up QB (and me) look good. C'mon lads. -- Patriots @ Giants: The other New England/New York battle. At least we know this much about this game; the Jets hate both of them and they both hate the Jets. With that out of the way, down to business. Looking over the Patriots roster you kind of wonder whether they'll even miss Tom Brady, providing Zac Robinson and Brian Hoyer can avoid having a truly chronic game. Defensively there are a few more questions and holes, but this is what pre-season is all about. Looking at the Giants roster, I'm not even sure who will start at the receiver position. They're so thin that it's worrying, but I'm guessing Victor Cruz will get another chance to shine. On the defense, rookies DT Linval Joseph and DE Jason Pierre-Paul are unlikely to have a better chance than this to shine. -- Falcons @ Jaguars: Shocking end to pre-season. Will another Jaguars game be delayed by lightning? Will another Jaguars game be blacked out on TV? Will another Jaguars game be blacked out by lightning? Who knows. Providing the elements and the TV networks play ball, then we can see the Jaguars and Falcons play ball too. For the Falcons it's another great opportunity for DE Kroy Biermann and rookie DT Corey Peters to showcase their skills. Expect Sean Weatherspoon (rookie watch list) to go all out and show the Falcons what he can do to. I imagine the Jaguars will give Luke McCown another chance to shine and pile pressure on David Garrard. I'm hoping that Tyson Alualu (rookie watch list) (I really should post that somewhere on the sidebar) will be let loose again against an O-line that hasn't really inspired confidence this off season. I'm also intrigued to see how rookie DT Kommonyan Quaye gets on, for no other reason than having a spectacularly brilliant name. -- Panthers @ Steelers: Quarterback battles all the rage. So far, this is what we've deduced from watching Dennis Dixon and Byron Leftwich battle for the starting QB job in Pittsburgh; that Charlie Batch should probably get it. Batch is the only one who looks remotely comfortable behind that O-line and may get a lengthy shot on Thursday. After lengthy spells for the other running backs, I'm hoping to see Mewelde Moore get a proper chance to light up the field. It's unclear how much time the Panthers starting D-line will get to prove that their last game wasn't a fluke, but even the number twos should provide some fireworks. I'll be watching for rookie LB Eric Norwood (watch list) to put in a good showing as well. Offensively stay tuned for WR(s) Brandon LaFell and Armanti Edwards, as well as RB Mike Goodson. The QB job is still up in the air (no pun intended) so Moore and Clausen may have to put on the gloves and fight it out for a fourth round once again. -- Jets @ Eagles: The F***ing Jets, visit f***ing Philly for a f***ing game of f***ball. And time for a good test of their Revis-less secondary. More to the point, time to test rookie CB Kyle Wilson (watch list) to see whether he can fill in opposite Cromartie. The entire line-backing corps will also be worth watching to see how much pressure they can generate without Calvin Pace. If you start seeing blitzes from the slot, then be worried. The Eagles will probably turn the reins over to Michael Vick and Mike Kafka for the day, shielding Kevin Kolb from the Jets pass rush and the Philly press after a less than awesome start to his reign as the Eagles starting QB. Defensively I'm keyed in on rookie DT Jeff Owens (watch list) and veteran DE Juqua Parker trying to get his job back. -- Ravens @ Rams: Bulger has a point to prove. Literally. Returning back to the team that cut him loose, Bulger will be out to show that Rams that given the right toys to play with he can get the job done. Keep an eye out also for "Mount Cody" to get a full game against a Rams offense that has taken off under the guidance of Sam Bradford, but may just fall back flat on its face with Keith Null or Thaddeus Lewis under center. For the Rams the rookie watch list throws up WR Mardy Gilyard and CB Jerome Murphy. Murphy in particular might benefit if the Ravens continue with their aerial approach to the 2010 season. WR Danario Alexander is still injured I believe. Here's rooting as well for rookie TE Michael Hoomanawanui to carry the flag for players with awesome names. -- Bears @ Browns: Time for rookie QBs to show us what they've got. Namely Dan LeFevour for the Bears and Colt McCoy for the Browns. LeFevour was highly touted heading into the draft and projected to be possibly the 3rd QB to come off the board. He ended up sinking into the 6th round, being taken 181st overall. Now is the time to prove all those doubters wrong with a strong showing. Just a shame he has to do it with the O-line, receiving corps and RBs of the Bears. McCoy has a slightly easier task in the sense that it's slightly easier to find a needle in a haystack with the aid of a magnifying glass than it is without. To be fair he did put together a solid drive near the end of his last game, but ultimately still came up short. He certainly hasn't taken to the NFL like a certain Monsieur Tebow, but at least there are promising signs. Somewhere. Under that haystack. Look out as well for RB Montario Hardesty (rookie watch list) who apart from sounding like he should be a character in an Alexandre Dumas novel, is also known to carry the football. That then is eight games down, which leaves eight games for tomorrow. Then at some point on Thursday I've got to come back and review them all. Chances are I'll split the games into two posts. I will also endeavour to put the rookie watch list up somewhere where you can see it permanently; try and move the clickable ads around into a more manageable space (might as well try and claw back some revenue for the time invested); and also mess about with fonts to try and make it look a little less bland. As always any free word of mouth/e-mail/telephone/twitter/facebook promotion you care to give me is greatly appreciated, and you can still send me abusive e-mails about why I should pay more attention to 'Advanced NFL Stats' (www.advancednflstats.com) at: keepingthechainsmoving@live.co.uk Till tomorrow, Have a great day everyone.

Thursday Night recap

It's Thursday night which means, uhm, Thursday Night Football recap? Yeah!! Jets 19 @ Bills 13 -- God almighty I bet the fans couldn't wait for this one to finish. And while I think about it, and by 'it' I mean the word 'fans', this game was supposed to be a Bills home game. Yet the noise level suggested this was being played in the Meadowlands. It's odd because I read an article just the other day by a Bills fan that mentioned the lack of enthusiasm for the games played in Toronto. Anyway, back to the game and in true fashion for my picks, a team that I said would do one thing in fact did another. Just 15 passes from Sanchez before he limped off with an injury during the third quarter. Everyone is hailing it as terrible news, but I think it might actually be the best news Jets fans have heard all season and might even spark a late run at a Wildcard spot. As I feared, the Jets rushing attack blasted the Bills typically appalling run defense off the face of the Earth, clocking up 249 yards. But before Bills fans bemoan their defense too heavily, it's worth noting that the Bills offense were even worse. 9/23 for Ryan Fitzpatrick. Yeah, some of that has to do with the quality play of Jets CB Darrelle Revis who was assigned to shut down Terrell Owens (targeted 9 times, caught 3), but Lee Evans didn't exactly bolster his case for being the number 1 guy (targeted 7 times, caught 1). Granted, some of that just has to do with bad throwing. But the most cardinal sin for me; bad running. Just 19 carries between Jackson and Lynch, with Jackson taking 13. Now this surprised me. Yesterday I said Fred Jackson was better and I think all things considered, he is. But Lynch was obviously having a good game. He looked fired up, motivated, ready to try and win back his job. He busted out a 35 yard run in the 2nd quarter, then came right back on the next play and scored a TD. Then after that, just 1 more carry. I mean, are you kidding me? You run 35 yards then score a 15 yard TD on the next play, and your reward is to get just one extra carry? No wonder the Bills are in trouble. And more to the point, they've already cost me a pick. So there we have it, 0-1 already. With a busy weekend of action ahead there's always plenty of games to pick things up and get back in it. Tomorrow night I'll let you know who I'm backing.

Week 13 Thursday Night pick

It's Wednesday night, which can only mean one thing. Err, Thursday Night Football!!! Well, my Thursday night pick at least: Jets @ Bills -- This, for me, is a trap game. A lot depends on the approach that one team takes to this contest. Last time they played, the Jets tore a huge, gaping, massive hole through the Bills D. But they lost the game because they tried to be clever and throw it despite their obvious dominance on the ground (more on that later). The result was Mark Sanchez offering picks all over the place which the Bills secondary, and in particular safety Jairus Byrd, gobbled up. So the question is thus; can the Jets keep Sanchez's throwing to a minimum and let Thomas Jones and Shonne Greene tear the Bills a new one? Honestly, I don't see them doing it. They love the thought of the "Sanchise" way too much. That, coupled with the Bills offensive resurgence of late (getting the ball to Terrell Owens and realising that Fred Jackson is better than Marshawn Lynch) combines to give the Bills the win. I think. I hope. Bills win. And now from Buffalo to the global ether that is the Internet, and more specifically, to NFL.com. Senior analyst Pat Kirwan recently wrote an article (if your quick, it may still be on the front page) claiming that the end of "run the football and play great defense" may be at hand, and that the NFL is about to become a must-pass-first league. This nearly knocked me out of my chair. Either one of three things has happened here: a) A perfectly sane and normally excellent analyst was drugged, and in his pharmopsychologically (???) induced state, he temporarily went insane and wrote this article, or b) He was held at gun point by officials from the pass happy NFL who forced him to write the article, as they would love nothing more than (and have tried relentlessly) to see the NFL become a slightly more expensive version of flag football, or c) He actually meant it. My money is on a sort of bizarre combination of the first two. It has to be. No right minded, football loving (and football knowledgeable) individual would surely claim that if teams want to win the Superbowl these days, then they must abandon the concept of the run and solid defense, and instead kit themselves out with a first class passing attack. It makes no sense. Let's look at some opposite sides of the coin shall we? First, the top five teams for passing yards per game. These are, from top to bottom; Colts, Patriots, Texans, Saints, Cardinals. The Colts are undoubtedly the leagues leaders in passing. Peyton Manning leads a pass heavy attack that often functions like a well oiled machine. The Colts are also unbeaten. But they do have a tendency to fall behind until late in the game. The have a tendency to win games by the smallest of margins. They have a tendency to be otherwise out of a game until a handy flag appears (more on that later). And they are really only doing so well because this year their defense has played out of it's skin. Compare the Colts with the Patriots. The Pats put 59 on the board against the Titans which is the highest points tally scored by a single team, in one game, this season. There is no question that at times, Brady and his trusty receivers can make NFL defenses look average. But the Patriots defense has often come up short this season and subsequently the team as a whole has suffered. For a comparison, look no further than the Texans. Admittedly they've had some woes in the kicking game, but by and large, their very aggressive and competent pass offense has been unable to cover for the sore lack of talent on their defense. A problem the Saints have not had this season. Last season they did. The Saints still had an explosive passing attack. They lead the league in both passing and scoring. Drew Brees nearly cracked Dan Marinos record for passing yards in a single season. But ultimately the Saints finished 8-8 and bottom of the NFC South. The difference this year has been down to three things; a better running game, a much improved defense, and some lucky games where teams handed them the win. There is no glossing over that. Their high octane offense is not the reason they are undefeated. It's the more mundane "run the ball and play great defense" aspects that have turned them around. Sentiments shared by the Arizona Cardinals. The Cards made it to the Superbowl last year. They got a huge helping hand by virtue of playing in the NFC West, a virtue that has served them well again this season. They got a another helping hand in the playoffs courtesy of the Carolina Panthers (I hate the Panthers) who tried to play them at their own game and ended up turning the ball over 6 times from the QB position. This year the Cardinals were having problems again. Enter Chris 'Beanie' Wells and Tim Hightower, who have breathed life into an otherwise lacklustre rushing attack, helped in no small part by their Head Coach's desire to run the ball more. Still, the outlook for the Cards' this season is a little gray. Compare now if you will the other end of the spectrum, by looking at the top five teams for rushing yardage per game. These are, from top to bottom; Titans, Jets, Dolphins, Panthers, Saints. The Saints we've already covered and so need not trouble ourselves with again. But the other four teams have an interesting story to tell. Other than their high rushing yardage, they all share one bizarre trait in common. They throw the ball too much. Yes, too much. At the start of the season the Titans went with QB Kerry Collins. For some as yet unknown reason they decided that Collins would be their savior. Despite going 13-3, including a ten game winning streak the previous season, they largely abandoned their rushing attack and instead tried to get creative through the air. The end result was 8 interceptions and just a 54% completion rate in 6 games. Then they switched to Vince Young and started to focus more on their league leading rushing attack and now, surprise, surprise, they've won 5 on the trot. The story is familiar to all the four teams we're looking at now, not least the Jets. So far, Mark Sanchez has managed to clock up no less than 17 interceptions for the New Yorkers. It seems that no matter how hard Thomas Jones and Shonne Greene work on the ground, they can always rely on their QB to give the opposition a chance to get back into the game. Against the Bills in Week 6 the Jets ran the ball 40 times and clocked up 318 net yards rushing. That's about comparable with a lot of good QBs total yardage after throwing 40 times. But alas for the Jets, 30 pass attempts yielded just 96 net yards passing (when you take into account sacks) and a combined 6 interceptions (5 by Sanchez). Had they continued to run the ball more in a game which they were dominating on the ground, they would have firmly put the Bills in their place. The Dolphins can sympathise with this. When they met the New Orleans Saints in Week 7 (supposedly the best team in the NFL right now) they got off to a flying start. With the clock ticking away at the end of the first half, they lead 24-3. Thanks to a dumb timeout call they ended up going in leading just 24-10 instead of 24-6. And from there, things began to unravel. Chad Henne completed just 18/36 passes in the whole game and threw two interceptions in the second half, both returned for touchdowns. Miami abandoned it's run game for much of the second half and were brutally punished as a result. This is just one of many incidents where Miami has wandered from it's strengths and shot itself in the foot. But the true masters of this are the Carolina Panthers. They literally are the undisputed champions of throwing more than is healthy for them. Just look at QB Jake Delhomme. 18 interceptions. Only Jay Cutler has thrown more. But at least the Bears have an excuse. They have no run game to speak of (which is not Matt Forte's fault). The Panthers have DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, arguably the best running back tandem in the entire NFL. They have no excuse for throwing the ball as much as they do. And it's cost them games. Last year it cost them their place in the playoffs. Had they not blown it so fantastically against the Cardinals, they had a good shout at going all the way. Passing didn't help them win a Superbowl, it hindered them. All in all, the point I'm trying to make is that 'running the football and playing great defense', as a concept, is far from dead. Passing first and building your team around an explosive pass attack is not the way to win the Superbowl. Those that believe it will are headed for a serious head on collision with reality. And what makes this more frustrating is that I recently read on a college/high school coaches Internet forum that they are all expecting teams in the next five years to become much more run orientated to combat 'pass orientated defenses'. They profess that the cat and mouse game of offense/defense will cycle around and that power football will become en vogue once more. They believe they have wisely forseen the future of football by predicting this trend. No doubt they will smugly laugh and pat each other on the back, and claim that they all ought to be NFL coaches. The stark reality is that running the football has never been ineffective. There are ineffective ways of rushing and there are ineffective players in many rushing attacks (cough *Bears*), but running the football as a concept is perfectly sound, even now. It has nothing to do with 'pass orientated defenses' and everything to do with being solid, fundamental football. (I should just point out that the same coaching forum never hesitates to expound the virtues of the passing game and in particular the 'Spread'; the very thing that is sinking so many pro teams). And on one final note, I'd like to draw your attention to the Indianapolis Colts and their seemingly endless stream of pass interference calls. Now it's a given that a team that passes a lot is more likely to encounter a greater number of pass interference flags. They are simply presenting more opportunities for their receivers to be fouled. But you have to draw the line somewhere. The call they got on Sunday against the Texans was ludicrous. If it wasn't for a flag, the Colts game against the Patriots would likely have ended in a markedly different manner. Why is this of any significance? Like the Saints, it shows that luck has had no small part to play in their undefeated season so far, and it should serve as a caution to those who would tag them as 'the best team in the NFL'. Right, that's all for today. Tomorrow I'll be recapping the Jets/Bills game, Friday will bring my picks for the all the weekends NFL action, and on Saturday I'll try and convince you that the most important players on any team are the linemen....... And as always, if you're reading the blog and you like it, feel free to: a) use the feedback boxes at the bottom of the post, b) leave a comment, c) spread the word, Wherever you're and whatever you're doing (providing it's legal), have a good day.

... and some ridiculous ineptitude by the Panthers offensive play calling...

Ok, so all of Sundays games are now done and dusted, time to assess how I did in my first week of picks. Well, as I've already said I was 6-0 for the early games and most of the late games were goinf in my favour, but it didn't all go to plan.... Buffalo: 20 @ Carolina: 9 -- Remember these names; John Fox and Jeff Davidson. The first is the Panthers Head Coach, the second is their Offensive Co-ordinator. These have to be the two stupidest coaches in professional football right now (yeah, worse than Eric Mangini!!!). How can you overlook Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams in favour of Jake Delhomme? Between them the two running backs were given just 23 carries. 23. Delhomme on the other hand was given 44 (!!!) pass attempts, of which he completed 27 for 325 yds. But no TD's. But of course, this is Jake Delhomme we're talking about, so naturally he turned the ball over 3 times with INT's. It just boggles the mind. I knew that it was risky picking the Panthers. I knew that even though the Bills defense was gashed by the Jets rushing attack the week before, and that they have Williams and Stewart as their running back tandem, I knew that the Panthers might just fall in love with Delhomme again and throw it a lot. And turn it over. And sure enough, they did. Words can't begin to describe how retarded this decision is. If I was the owner of the franchise I'd be furious. And Fox and Davidson would both be jobless. Jets: 38 @ Oakland: 0 -- No real surprise here. Sanchez came back from his disaster last week with a conservative game and threw a TD to Clowney. But the most fun part is that the Jets surpassed even the Steelers in the diversity of their rushing attack, giving 8 (!!!) different guys the ball. Obviously Thomas Jones was among them, with 26 carries for 121 yds and a touchdown. But with Leon Washington leaving the game injured it fell to rookie Shonn Greene to fill in the gap. And boy did he. 19 carries, 144 yds, 2 touchdowns. That's one way to get your coaches attention!! Bears: 10 @ Bengals: 45 -- I took the Bengals because I didn't think the Bears would run the ball well and because I thought the Bengals had too much offensive punch through the air and on the ground. And holy crap was I underestimating the disparity. 6 carries, 24 yds. That was Matt Fortes production. Compare to Cedric Benson, who was playing against his old team. He got himself 37 carries... for 189 yds & a TD!! That's pretty damn impressive. And on any other day that would win you the awe of the crowd. Except that Palmer went 20/24 for 233yds and 5, count 'em, 5 TD's. Compare that to Jay Cutlers 26/37, 251 yds, 1 TD and 3 INT's. Bengals looking like the real deal in the AFC North, but it's still early days. Falcons: 21 @ Cowboys: 37 -- I went Cowboys here, but to be honest it was by no means a dead cert. I also proclaimed earlier that the Cowboys should run the ball more (which they should), but they didn't listen. Still, no matter, when Romo is throwing 21/29 for 311yds and 3 TD's. Credit again to Miles Austin who nearly went for 200 yds twice in a row, this time though settling for a mere 6 catches for 171 yds and 2 TD's. Saints: 46 @ Dolphins: 34 -- I mentioned earlier today that if anyone was gonna come back from being 24-3 down, then it would likely be the Saints. And sadly for my picks, they did. Bugger. Throwing away two interceptions for touchdowns didn't exactly help the Miami cause. In fact, if it weren't for those 13 points (the Saints missed a 2 point conversion), my pick would have come up as a gem. Bloody Drew Brees. Still he finished, 22/38, 298 yds, 1 TD and 3 INT's, which is way below par for him. Especially the INT's. Sadly though the ball was thrust into Chad Hennes hands, and predictably he threw 2 interceptions among his 36 attempts. Which annoys me. Not the interceptions. Just the principle that for a team as good on the ground as Miami, why throw 36 (37 if you include Ronnie Browns effort) times? Ricky Williams notched 3 TD's, and you have to think they would have had more if they had just stuck with that run game. Damn it! Cardinals: 24 @ Giants: 17 -- This game I had the chance to watch on telly. Man was it tight at times. Credit to Anquan Boldin, whose 3 catches for 75 yds doesn't tell you the whole story about how physical and determined this guy was. Ultimately though, Mannings 3 interceptions cost his team dearly. There are also continuing questions about his play calling actions at the line of scrimmage. In a desperate attempt to look like as good a field general as his brother, Eli spends in ordinate amounts of time trying to call plays and adjust protections. Except that often those protections breakdown. And 'cos he spends so much time doing it, the play clock gradually burns away, leaving Eli with a double headed monster; he either doesn't get the ball off in time and suffers delay of game penalites, or he has so little time left that he has to give away his cadence to the D. He never leaves enough time to run the kind of fakes that his brother does, and subsequently the D is able to time their releases to perfection, usually resulting in them teeing off on Manning. And unlike his brother, he isn't nearly as adept at spotting who's blitzing and who's faking. Them Cardinals turned out to be a good pick. So, that's the Sunday night games done and dusted, and thanks to a ridiculous comeback by the Saints and some ridiculous ineptitude by the Panthers offensive play calling, I'm now at 10-2 in my picks this week. Tomorrow sees the Eagles travel to Washington, where I'm backing the Redskins to pull an upset. Please Redskins, run the ball, run play action, and take me to 11-2 on my first weekend!!!