2012 NFL Draft: Quarterbacks

Before we begin this round up, it's important to note once again that this is just my initial impressions based on what I've seen so far. I'll probably come back for a second look in depth at some of the more prominent individuals at a later date. If you're wondering why this is taking so much longer than last year, it's because my work schedule this year is so much more hectic, which is pressing the demands on time. As a result I may, with regard to the remaining groups, focus more on the high end prospects.


- Andrew Luck, Stanford: Before I even begin to talk about Luck, we need to caveat this whole speech. See, the very reason that I started this blog is because I was sick and tired of listening to some of the bile and hyperbole that gets thrown around the Internet and on TV by certain pundits, professional writers, bloggers, and analysts.

Enter Andrew Luck. Luck is by no means a bad quarterback, that much should be obvious to everybody. But by the same token, Luck is being given far too much credit. Many fans will already be familiar with this and thankfully a lot of people realise that Luck is perhaps being built up in the media a little beyond what he's actually capable of.

I'm not sure though if fans realise just to what extent that is the case. I watched one play for example against USC and compared it to the ESPN broadcast, where the commentator went on a loving monologue about how Luck was victimising this defender and intentionally doing this and that etc, when really he looked more like he was just going through his standard reads. Like normal.

This happens all the time in football. Everytime Peyton Manning steps up and calls something out to his line, he's tagged as having changed the play. How do you know that? Manning, like all quarterbacks, has to occasionally use fake audibles (fake calls) in order to keep the defense guessing. He's not always changing the play everytime he speaks, but commentators blindly credit him as doing so on every occasion.

Luck has the same problem, or rather, the same benefit. He's constantly being credited for things that a logical study of the game would suggest he's not actually doing. This goes back to an article I wrote a while back about how quarterbacks are always given credit for "dropping the ball into the receivers lap" on deep passes, when anyone with a modicum of understanding as to how these things actually work in reality knows that quarterbacks tend to just drop the ball in the approximate location of the receiver (within a few feet) and the receiver usually makes the final adjustment to secure the catch.

On that note, I have to say that I think Luck is over rated. It's hard for me to say something like that because I do think Luck is a very talented quarterback and his future in the NFL looks reasonably promising given the right situation and the right coaching.

He does have - shock, horror - some weaknesses though. The two primary ones that I've seen have been 1) that he's very much a short passing quarterback and 2) that he often makes some very poor decisions under pressure.

Addressing number one first, this was a big knock that I had on Blaine Gabbert (among many knocks) from last year. Luck has a good completion percentage largely because he routinely dumps the ball off to underneath receivers and is very disinclined to push the ball downfield. When he does attempt passes of over 10 yards, his accuracy is highly questionable (as in, very inconsistent).

That's not a bad thing in and of itself. Montana and Young made careers with the 49ers out of protecting the ball, finding the open receiver and letting receivers rack up the yards after the catch. Tom Brady has been doing it that way for the last few seasons. The trouble is that approach a) is very dependent on the quality of the receivers and, b) is a method that sometimes struggles when playing from behind.

Addressing point two, under pressure Luck has a tendency to just flick the ball out in an almost blase (I don't have one of those fancy e's with thing on it), shovel pass manner and sometimes throw bad passes up for grabs into dangerous spots. Rather than just eat the sack or throw the ball out of bounds he tries to make a play happen where there clearly isn't one, and if not punished for it, then often comes very close to being.

That combination - for me at least - throws up some serious questions that need answering. Can Luck carry a team single handed, without a sterling receiver corps? Can he put up enough yards on a team that has a poor running game? If he's drafted by a coach who wants to push the ball downfield (it's almost certainly going to be the Colts), can he get by without giving up too many takeaways? How will he cope under the relentless pressure of an NFL pass rush? When you consider that last year he got somewhat rattled by all the media attention surrounding him, how will he cope with being a first round pick and the "face of a franchise"?

Working in Lucks favour are a number of positive attributes. He does have a surprising turn of speed with his feet. His footwork when dropping back and moving in the pocket is excellent. Mentally he avoids pressure and works around the pocket very well. His conservative style means he doesn't turn the ball over much. His vision downfield is pretty good. I noticed he can throw the ball from any position in his hand, that is to say that he doesn't need the laces under his fingers like many quarterbacks. He's pretty accurate over short distances and he's known for being hard working.

All of these things present a coach with a very useful, very flexible player to work with who can probably start week one with the right offense in place. His prospects for technical development are - in my estimation - slightly above average for quarterbacks coming into the league. But the decision making under pressure and conservative style are nagging issues.

I think in order to succeed Luck will need a coach who understands his limitations and builds the offense around him. Someone like a Mike Martz is probably no use to Luck. He needs a slightly less ambitious offense that gives him good protection, plenty of options and is built to attack the opponent piece by piece, play by play, in a slower, more methodical fashion, with some nippy slot receivers.

So do I think Luck will make it big in the NFL? As always with young prospects, it's very hard to tell. He has a lot of raw tools in his favour to work with, however I just can't see him matching up to the hype that has been surrounding him for this last year. People expecting Luck to be the second coming of Peyton Manning are in for a sharp shock.

I'd place him more in the bracket with guys like Kyle Orton and Jay Cutler, in that I think with all the right set up then he could be successful, but he's not the kind of quarterback who is going to bring everyone else up to his level and he's not going to win games single handedly. His first season will tell us an awful lot about him, much of it quite surprising to many I'm sure.

Of course with the media the way it is, expect the pendulum of hype to swing wildly from "Golden Boy" to "Bust", which after just one season will absolutely be just as undeserved.