2015 NFL Draft: Running Backs

I'll come right out and lay my cards on the table; I'm not a huge fan of teams using high picks on running backs.

I'm very much in the camp that says that the performance of running backs is strongly influenced by the success of their offensive line. If the line can make a hole then the back has a much better chance of gaining good yards. If the line can't create anything then even the best backs are typically going nowhere. And when you consider that even many backs taken later in the draft have shown they too can put up good yardage behind a decent line (observe the Patriots string of no name running backs) then I'm very adverse to the idea of using a high pick on a running back.

Not all backs are created equal though. So what am I looking for in a good running back? I'm interested in four things primarily;

1) ability to see or anticipate holes in the line,

2) the willingness to press these holes and potentially take a hit in order to gain solid yards for the team,

3) the speed and elusiveness of the back in the open field,

4) pass blocking and pass catching,

The first and second are pretty much tied together. There are some running backs who either can't see holes develop in the line or even if they can, they refuse to go through them and risk getting rocked by a linebacker. If you look at the Raiders back Darren McFadden for example, he often misses gaping holes in the Raiders line, either because he can't see them or because he refuses to press up into them, instead trying to use his speed to beat the linebackers to the edge. This is one of the main reasons that he can be quite boom and bust.

Point three is where running backs really come into their own. Once they're past the line it's all down to the back. It's his speed vs the defender, his ability to dodge tackles vs their ability to make them, and it's here that I think running backs can really distinguish themselves from the competition. Everybody can imagine the last time they saw Marshawn Lynch busting out a big run, shaking off tackles and driving his way down the field.

Point four is another area where backs can make money for themselves and put daylight between them and the competition. A running back who has utility in both the passing and the running game is significantly more versatile and valuable than one who can only run. It's not a deal breaker if they can't contribute in this aspect, but it does hurt their stock, or at least it should.

Lastly, and as always, the list here is simply ordered the way it is because that's how the list I'm working from is ordered. It doesn't represent my opinions about the players, for which you'll have to read the individual feedback. So let's get started.

Todd Gurley, Georgia

Have to say, Gurley is quite a remarkable player. He has a rare combination of speed and strength which makes this young guy tough to tackle. You can see in the way that he shrugs people off and bounces off tackles that a lot of that strength is in the lower body and that's a really good thing.

Let's deal with some of the problems first. His pass blocking is not great. He's far too keen to dive at the legs and try to cut people when a guy of his size and strength should be able to at least get in the defenders face and cause them more problems than he does. His pass route running is not great and he's not really a major passing threat.

More worrying is the fact he suffered a serious knee injury, so there's a huge question mark over his future. How will he recover from this? When he returns, will he still have that same speed, strength and cutting ability? It's the sort of gamble that NFL teams are unlikely to want to stake a high round pick on.

If it hadn't been for that then there's a chance Gurley would have been a first round pick because that's how good he is. He sniffs out the holes and is more than happy to put his head down and go for it between the tackles. He consistently takes runs that should be stopped for a short gain and drives through defenders to get first downs. It's great stuff.

If he can comeback from the injury and perform to the previous level then Gurley has a great future ahead of him. But with that knee problem I think he slips to the second, maybe even the third round. I don't think I would be able to convince myself to part with more than a third because of that injury uncertainty. I wish him the best and I hope he gets back to full strength because he'll be a lot of fun to watch.

Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin

In order to figure out whether you would draft Gordon you need to ask yourself one simple question; can I live with his boom and bust nature?

I for one would get quite annoyed with it. What I mean by this is that Gordon has fantastic speed and agility once he's out in the open field, but he's not strong enough to pound his way between the tackles on a consistent basis. To get the best out of him you either have to let him run to the outside or carve a hole up the middle so wide you could drive a bus through it.

On some plays you'll get big runs, potentially all the way down the field for a touchdown. His speed is up there with most receivers and corners, so he certainly has the ability to blaze away even in the NFL. But he's not much use as a short yardage back and he's not much use in the passing game either. He's a two down back who will make a bunch of highlight reels but can't really be counted on when the chips are down to get you the tough yards you need.

I personally don't like backs like that. I prefer guys who can chip away a little more consistently at the defense, even when the offensive line isn't playing that great. Gordon will probably work best in a multi-faceted offense that doesn't rely too much on him to grind out results.

Tevin Coleman, Indiana

I have to say that I really like Coleman.

Given that his offensive line wasn't always the greatest and struggled to open up rushing lanes against the top teams, Coleman put up some very good numbers. I love that fact that he sees the hole opening and just sticks his head down and goes for it, lighting the afterburners and throwing caution to the wind (yet still protecting the football, if not his own health). The result is that he is consistently able to acquire yardage in modest, hard fought for chunks. And then every now and again he'll break open a big one.

And boy when he breaks open, he breaks open! He's not the fastest guy in the world, but he has superb balance and agility. He seems to just shift his weight slightly and effortlessly curve a path through a sea of tacklers, like an F1 race car picking its way through a chicane at high speed. He has a subtle technique in the open field where he takes a little speed off, causing defenders to adjust their angle and line him up, before suddenly bursting off into the distance again. I love that about Coleman, because it tells me this is a guy who is dedicated to his craft and always seeking out ways to gain an extra edge.

He's not really a threat in the passing game and though a willing blocker, his pass blocking certainly needs some work. His height and build make it unlikely that he'll ever become a reliable pass blocker, but he could learn to become a bit more of an obstacle than he is now. For that reason he might lose value as being a two down back, but that's a hell of a two down back! I'm really impressed. Would I part with more than a third rounder though? Meh, I dunno, but that's because I'm just so averse to the idea of using high picks on running backs. Maybe, depending on what was left out there.

That aside, I think Coleman will be a superb back in the NFL and will win a lot of fans with his running style, even if his career may not be the longest.

Jay Ajayi, Boise State

Certainly a highlight reel guy at times! Ajayi makes some crazy runs, bouncing and spinning off people in all directions, jumping tackles and all sorts. It's really fun to watch. He has decent speed though he's probably not going to race away from many people in the NFL. He's tough to bring down, not least because he just keeps fighting for every yard.

In the passing game he can catch pretty well, but he's not a highly developed route runner. This is actually a fairly consistent problem with a lot of guys coming out of spread offenses that are often asked only to catch screens and the odd flat route. His pass blocking is nothing to write home about either.

Overall though Ajayi is a good back. He has no problems putting his head down and running between the tackles. He's a pretty consistent gainer and just seems to have an uncanny knack for picking up yardage. Some people think he can be a three down guy but I'm not too sure about that. I think he's a two down runner personally, especially when you take into account his film against some of the better opponents that Boise faced. I think a third rounder is probably good value for Ajayi and I think we'll be hearing that name (and mastering the pronunciation) a lot of the next few years.

Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska

Ameer has drawn high praise for being a great "character" guy, as well as scoring highly in a lot of drills at the combine with the exception of the 40 yards dash. But then it should be no surprise that a 5'9" guy did well in all the drills except the 40 yard dash, because generally 5'9" guys tend to be very agile, balanced and have a high power to weight ratio, but a shorter stride length.

Now, here's the problem I have with Abdullah; against weaker opponents he was superb, but in the two games that I watched against decent opposition Abdullah was nowhere to be seen. Obviously the offensive line takes some blame for that, as they struggled tremendously to create holes and keep their running back (and quarterback) clean, but Abdullah had some chances to slip through some gaps or maybe out run the defense to the sideline and he just couldn't. He lacked the speed to beat people to the edge and the strength to break arm tackles.

For that reason I'd have to pass on Abdullah. Maybe he was just unfortunate in those two games and in a more evenly balanced NFL game he'll perform better, but I expect prospects to thrive in the toughest contests, not sink to the bottom. If it's the case that he needs a good O-line to be able to do anything then it's arguable that a free agent running back would be just as useful, perhaps one that can actually pass block for instance.

Duke Johnson, Miami

His name sounds like he should be a stuntman, like a human cannonball or something. And you know what, he plays like a human cannonball.

He's just so quick in those first 5-10 yards. He has an amazing burst of speed. Played mostly in a zone scheme, which is what the bulk of NFL teams play now, and he absolutely killed it. Not the strongest guy, not going to be breaking tackles all up and down the field like a Marshawn Lynch, but fully prepared to stick his head down and just throw himself into the defense at top speed. It's brilliant.

In the passing game there's a hit and miss element. The miss element is his pass protection, which is virtually non-existent. The hit element is his route running and catching. He's so quick out of the backfield he'll be a match up nightmare for linebackers and safeties, and I don't think I saw him drop a single pass that came his way, including one where he had to lay out to get it.

For that reasons Johnson has a dual appeal. He can ruin people in the running game and he can ruin them in the passing game. He may not be able to stay healthy through a 16 game season due to his size, and given the speed at which he runs I question whether he'll be healthy enough to get a second contract down the line, but in the immediate future I think Johnson will be an exciting and productive running back.

T.J. Yeldon, Alabama

This is the one I've been anticipating the second most on this list (I'll tell you when we get to the first) and frankly I'm surprised how low down he is on the list I'm working from.

I know everyone is a little wary of Alabama running backs after the Trent Richardson debacle, but I think Eddie Lacey has helped to repair that damage. And I think Yeldon will too. He's not a lightning fast runner by any means, but I actually think that's one of Yeldon's great advantages. Often with slower running backs you'll find they have an enforced sense of patience when it comes to waiting for blocks to be made and for holes to open (enforced because they simply lack the requisite acceleration to get to the line too early).

In Yeldon's case that lack of elite level acceleration allows him to pick his way through the defense using his excellent balance and a great eye for the opening. He's still pretty quick, don't get me wrong, but it's his cutting ability that will see him through as opposed to speed. I don't see Yeldon as a home run hitter so to speak, but I do seem him as that kind of guy that can go out there and consistently turn out first downs for you.

What's appealing about Yeldon in addition to his running ability is the fact that for the first time on this list we have someone who can actually pass block! Hooray! Now he's not going to be threatening the jobs of any offensive linemen anytime soon, but at least he's prepared to put himself in harms way, square up to the rusher (even defensive linemen at times) and do what he has to do to get the job done. I really like that. I always find it admirable when someone puts a lot of effort into something that they clearly don't like doing.

For those reasons I think Yeldon will be a starting running back and I think critically he can be a three down guy. His route running would need a bit of work, but that's something I think he can work on and develop. He's probably not going to be much of a highlight reel guy and maybe not the talk of the town, but I think he'll be an effective, solid running back who I'd be happy to part with a third rounder for.

Mike Davis, South Carolina

Can't say I was hugely impressed by Davis to be honest. A lot of the running backs on this list so far have had different traits, being strong in one area and weak another. Davis was weak in most.

He's 5'9", so you expect a guy with great burst, balance and agility. But he's 217 pounds, so the speed isn't there. So you say alright, you're 5'9" and you weigh almost 220, so maybe he's like a strong little fighter who's tough to bring down? Err, nope. Not that either. To cap it all off he can't block, he's very limited in the passing game and he has a tendency to run into trouble.

To give him credit, he keeps pounding away even when that O-line isn't making much room up front and through shear force of carries he did rack up a lot of 100 yard games. Occasionally he'll break off a nice run. But you just get the feeling that there are a lot of backs who could run faster and a lot who could fight harder between the tackles. I'd pass on Davis to be honest.

David Cobb, Minnesota

Like Davis I can't say as I was hugely impressed by Cobb. He's not bad, he's just nothing to write home about either. Not really that quick, not really that strong, not that tough to bring down, no remarkable cutting ability. I look at Cobb and ask myself "what does he bring to the table that an undrafted back couldn't?". And I can't give myself a satisfactory answer.

Cameron Artis-Payne, Auburn

Same again. Artis-Payne is a decent back who can get some ok yardage, but he's not exactly ripping runs off left, right and center, and nor is he pounding his way through the defense in his very own version of "beast mode. He's just about average. There's nothing about him that says "draft me now or you'll miss out!"

David Johnson, Northern Iowa

Everyone is talking about Johnson as a "sleeper" and a "diamond in the rough". This astounding insight would of course have nothing to do with his combine performance where he posted great numbers in all the various drills. And I've always questioned how you can be a sleeper when everyone is talking about you? Would that not be the very opposite of what a sleeper is?

Regardless, I'm actually not that ecstatic about Johnson. While he may have set the combine alight, those numbers would beg the question why he didn't set the field alight, not least while playing against such footballing royalty as Southern Illinois? He did look good coming out of the backfield when matched up one on one with a linebacker in the open field. But then most running backs do, especially when those linebackers are less than premium athletes.

The problem with Johnson was everything else. You'd expect a guy with his measurables to be an absolute beast. What I saw was anything but. Down on first contact, lacked the speed in the open field to keep ahead of the defenders, lacked any kind of move or outstanding cutting ability to slip past defenders. He was just a bit boring. So despite the crazy good combine, I'd past.

Karlos Williams, Florida State

Actually pretty good, which is refreshing. I was starting to despair.

Doesn't look like much, doesn't do anything especially fancy or highlight worthy, but very effective. You're talking about a guy who is 6'1", weighs 230 pounds and clocked a 4.48 sec 40 time at the combine. He can run and he can hit people. It's actually quite fun (if you're weird like me) to watch him slow down just a little in order to set defenders up. He has patience up the middle and is not afraid to put his head down and drive through for some hard yards.

If you want a diamond in the rough, a sleeper, this might be it. I don't think he was really outstanding in college and for me I think he's a later round guy, someone that you perhaps take a chance on depending on what else is on the board. But you can see the basic skills and quality is there. There are questions about his character and his motivation to play football, but if he can get it going he has quite a high ceiling I think.

Javorius Allen, USC

Some nice runs from Allen. And that's about it.

Sometimes you put on a game and a player performs well without really jumping out and grabbing your attention. Allen is one of them. He's not a bad back. Like I say, he made some nice runs. But... I guess the term I would use is forgettable. He's forgettable. Couple of weeks from now I'll remember a lot of these players off the top of my head. When Allen gets picked I know I'll have to look his name up.

That's normally a red flag for me. Why don't I remember you? Why did you not stand out more? Normally it's because a player was ok but nothing special and that's what Allen feels like. He feels like one of those backs that's dime a dozen, that you could pick up in free agency for a minimum salary and get the same production.

Jeremy Langford, Michigan State

Not bad. Ran pretty fast in the 40 at the combine so we know he can shift in a straight line when he needs to. I felt he did a reasonable job of picking his way through traffic, the problem is he's not especially strong and he's not hugely agile either. If you can make some holes for him he'll run, but I don't see him as a back that's going to create much for himself.

Matt Jones, Florida

You have to feel sorry for Jones running behind that O-line and with some of that play calling. It wasn't pretty. Jones struggled on though and did ok. Of particular are his pass protection skills. He was able to stand up and take on a variety of outside rushers, delaying them enough for his quarterback to get the pass off. He was prepared to cut defensive linemen when needed, and his recognition and pickup of blitzes was good.

As a running back he seemed a little average to me, which might just be a product of playing for the team that he did. I think he's worth considering for a team that plans to use a committee system at running back because of that versatility when it comes to pass protection. I don't think he can carry the burden of being a feature back, but if he was still available late then I'd consider the merits of drafting him as part of a rotation.

Josh Robinson, Mississippi State

Ran poorly at the combine and you can see that lack of speed on the field. Everytime he breaks out into the open you can see his little 5'8" legs struggling to get that 217 pound frame moving and a lot of the time he gets chased down from behind.

However, spot the key element of that previous sentence? Got it yet? "Everytime he breaks out into the open...". Yeah, sure, he's not a huge burner and he's not going to run away from people in the NFL. But he will get through the initial pile on a consistent basis and starting clocking up first downs with alarming regularity.

This is the old Maurice Jones-Drew argument all over again. "He's too short and slow so he can't be a consistent home run hitting running back". Well no he may not be, but he's still a good running back dumbass. More amusingly I actually saw this written about him; "Vision is average to below average". That is the single dumbest thing I've seen written about any draft prospect so far this year, though given that we're only at the running backs I suspect there is more to come.

And it is an unbelievably dumb thing to write about Robinson because pretty much the exact opposite is true. He has a phenomenal sense of vision and anticipation. He sees holes that I needed slow mo to catch. I think where people are getting caught out is because we're all looking for holes that a speedy running back would press. He's looking for holes that fit his style; a low center of gravity, exceptional balance guy with a real knack for fighting through tackles and sudden changes of direction.

Watching Robinson was at times like watching a master class in keeping the chains moving. He's another one of these prospects that gets me annoyed because the scouting and analysis communities discard him purely because his 40 time is slow, while ignoring how incredibly valuable his skill set is and how much damage he was clearly able to do to teams on a consistent basis.

He may not be a huge runner in terms of explosive plays but I suspect Robinson will eat up the yardage in the NFL and gain himself a reputation as dependable, reliable running back who can carry the load and give teams more than a few nightmares with his weaving, floating runs right up the middle. I'd go so far as to say that I think Robinson is worth a second rounder.

Malcolm Brown, Texas

Not particularly a stand out back, but he has some speed and I saw him go through a few arm tackles. He's a bottom end/free agent type with perhaps a better than average chance of making a team as a practice squad player if not on a full roster.

Jalston Fowler, Alabama

Remember earlier I said that Fowler's team mate Yeldon was my second most anticipated running back on this list? Well, Fowler is number one.

Yes, a fullback is the dude I was most keen to sit down and assess. That's because I've been keeping an eye on Fowler for a while and because I'm big on fullbacks. But what's great about Fowler is not so much his blocking, which is still good, but his ability to run with the ball as a back himself. That sounds dumb because he's a 254 pound back who took nearly 5 seconds to cover 40 yards. He's not going to be smashing any yardage records in the NFL I suspect.

But again Fowler is another one of those guys whose weight and lack of speed is almost an advantage. It prevents him from racing away like a bullet so he has a lot of patience to find the hole. He certainly has the size to drive through arm tackles. But that somewhat plodding pace also helps him to pick his way through traffic. It allows him to cut side to side in spaces that other running backs probably wouldn't be able to.

It's crazy. It's like watching a miracle unfold before your eyes as he goes plowing into the line and you think he's just going to disappear under a pile of bodies, and yet somehow he comes out on the other side, side stepping tackles like a character in a Disney movie as he rumbles inexorably onwards for a first down. It's a joy to watch, I wish him the absolute best in the NFL, and I have to say I personally would use maybe a fifth rounder on him (no need to go higher because it seems like he'll be a late round/undrafted guy), depending on what else was out there. I think the fact that he plays fullback but is also viable as a runner himself, and he can pass protect, that makes him a true three down back, with special teams value as well I suspect. That kind of value can be rare in the NFL and I think he'll be a success at the next level.

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And that's it for the running backs. Next up is wide receivers. And as always if you enjoyed reading this then please feel free to share it.

2015 NFL Draft: Quarterbacks

Ohhh yeah, it's that time of year again! And I'm back to analyse this years crop of draft hopefuls. Now in previous years sometimes I've been able to get them all done before the draft, sometimes not. We'll see how we get on this year, it's a bit of a late start so I might have to finish the study post draft. At some point in the off season I'd also like to go back and look at my history of draft analysis, some of which is good and some of which has been not so good.

Now when it comes to quarterbacks this where I'm most confident. For example in the year that Russel Wilson and Nick Foles came out, only one person I know was touting them to the hills and back, and only one person I know had a bad word to say about Blaine Gabbert, and that was me! 

So what do I look for in a quarterback? Well seldom are two quarterbacks the same (just look at Wilson vs Foles) and as such each quarterback should be judged on his own merits, but generally I'm most interested in:

- Deep ball accuracy,

- Range of passing,

- Pocket presence/movement,

- Decision making,

I say deep ball accuracy because it's very easy to make short passes. Most NFL backups and free agent quarterbacks can hit short passes, screens, things like that. Hitting deeper passes is much more difficult, such as hitting a 15 yard deep out pattern. Please note though that when I say accuracy I mean the ability of the quarterback to deliver the ball to the receiver in a catchable position. If the receiver then drops the pass that's his problem, not the quarterbacks.

Range of passing simply means the ability to hit all the "NFL throws", such as post patterns, deep outs, seam routes to tight ends etc. The more types of throw a quarterback can make the better. NFL offenses are quite complex and the coaches seldom have enough time to sit down and work with a quarterback to teach him the passing tree completely from scratch.

Pocket presence/movement encompasses two things; the smoothness of the footwork - both in the drop back and moving around the pocket - and the ability to keep your eyes downfield while moving to avoid pressure.

Decision making encompasses many, many issues, but foremost among these are the decisions that the quarterback makes about where to throw the ball and how he responds to being pressurised in the pocket. It's very common for example for young quarterbacks to make poor choices such as throwing the ball deep into traffic instead of just eating the sack.

Finally I should note that a players position on this list has nothing to do with my opinion on them. They're ordered the way they are because that's how the list I'm working from is ordered. Nor do I give out what I believe to be pointless numbered grades. It's ridiculous I think to try and summarise your opinion of a player in such a manner. I will normally try and give the most thorough written appraisal that I can and unlike most of the media pundits I always try and give a definitive, unambiguous statement about whether I like the player or not.

And with all that out of the way lets jump right in.

Jameis Winston, Florida state

Let's get the football side of things dealt with first.

Last year I saw bits of Winston incidentally while watching other players and initially I was quite impressed. I'm not sure what happened this year but I'm not that impressed any more. The problem with Wilson is primarily three fold; he's not that accurate when throwing over 10 yards from the line of scrimmage (LOS), he makes a lot of poor decisions, forcing throws into windows that he simply can't make, and he stares down his receivers chronically.

To me that's a combination that cannot work in the NFL. Sure, he might have some good games here and there, make some nice throws now and again. Lots of quarterbacks do. But quarterbacks are not paid to occasionally have good games and show a bit of promise. They're paid the big bucks to try and lead their team to a Superbowl title. I cannot see Winston doing that. He's not consistent enough and he makes far too many mistakes.

When you couple that with the string of off field issues that demonstrate a pattern of poor decision making then I'm afraid for me I'd have to pass on Winston. I just don't see the point in drafting him because I don't feel like he'll ever develop into a good enough quarterback.

On a side note, Florida State freshman receiver Travis Rudolph looks pretty handy.

Marcus Mariota, Oregon

The other big name in this years quarterback crop and one that is drawing praise for his physical gifts, predominantly his speed. 

In some regards that's true, he is a very athletically talented individual. His speed, as demonstrated at the combine, is wide receiver class and should hold up in the NFL. What I don't understand is why the NFL scouting community and the TV analysts have not picked up on the trend with regard to athletic quarterbacks in gimmicky college systems. This is Blaine Gabbert, Robert Griffin III, Cam Newton all over again.

Now the comparison isn't identical, I'll admit that. Whereas Gabbert used to crumble under the slightest pass rush Mariota has the speed and elusiveness to escape and extend the play. And compared to Griffin and Newton, Mariota has slightly better accuracy. But you can still see a little bit of all of them in him, and not the good bits.

You can see the same gimmick offense that Gabbert used to run. Sure, Mariota is a bit more accurate at distance than Gabbert was, but the offense still contained huge numbers of screens and dump offs, with no much in the way of NFL style throws. You can see the same vulnerability to injury as Griffin, given that Mariota is another tall, slender quarterback without enough meat to take a persistent pounding. And you can see the same eagerness to run and to throw hail mary passes down the field that Newton has.

None of these are traits that are conducive to winning NFL games on a consistent basis. Like Winston, Mariota will probably win the odd game here and there purely through a combination of luck and a few good passes. But not consistently enough to be a top quarterback I feel. Mariota is not Russell Wilson, who is a passer first and a runner second. He's more in the Griffin/Newton mould and I suspect his career will take a similar tangent. He'll get drafted high, get paid well for a few years, produce little, then eventually end up as a back up or out of the league. 

Not for me thanks.

Brett Hundley, UCLA

If this is supposedly the third best quarterback in this years draft then we have some serious problems, though I suspect that like normal there will be a selection of much better players to come.

No surprises then given that opening that I don't like Hundley. He never really threw that many deep passes and the ones he did were often under thrown and inaccurate. His arm is so weak he has to put everything he has into the throw just to get it moving more than 40 yards. He hit a lot of 10 yard hooks and some screens, but other than that his range of passing is very poor and he looks incapable of making the more difficult throws at the next level.

Just to cap it off he has a horrendous tendency to abandon the pass after one or two reads and look to run. His eyes come straight off the receivers and he just starts charging away, head down, normally right into a sack or an insignificant gain. As you might have guessed I would absolutely pass on Hundley. I wouldn't want him on my roster even as a back up. I just hope it gets better than this or this is going to be a long few days for me.

Garrett Grayson, Colorado State

Thank god for that!

Sort of. Grayson is certainly a hell of an improvement over Hundley even if he does have his own problems, one of which was an offensive line that couldn't block a doorway. This meant that in a lot of games he barely had enough time to read the field, let alone pick out a decent pass. But when his offensive line wasn't falling over or getting skinned alive for speed by the defense, then actually Grayson was really good.

He made some really, really nice throws deep down the field. We're talking the kind of throws where he puts it just over the head of one defender and just in front of another, into a really tight window where only his receiver can catch it. Some really impressive stuff. Sometimes he tried to stick it into windows that were just a little too tight, but this didn't happen that often.

Athletically he doesn't really have the ability to escape pressure and even when he did get out his accuracy went down quite a bit while he was on the move. If he's going to make it in the NFL it will be as a pure pocket passer. And in that regard I think he probably has a great shot. Clearly he'll still have to deal with pressure, just like every other quarterback, but I think he'll get more opportunities to shine than he did at Colorado State and that's where his deep passing accuracy will really come to the fore. His aim and his touch on those throws is just so sweet at times I have to believe that he'll be able to pull it off at the next level.

He does have some other issues, for example he has a tendency to stare down receivers at times and you do have to wonder if on some of his sacks whether he couldn't have just stepped up and perhaps kept the play alive a little longer, but broadly speaking I think the positives outweigh the negatives. Supposedly he's projected as a third or fourth rounder by most media outlets, which is probably a fair mark if only because of some of the uncertainty that surrounds him and because I suspect there will be better overall players at other positions still on the board. 

I would however be tempted to go higher. Hell, if Winston and Mariota are considered top ten picks then Grayson must be to, but more realistically I think you would still get value in the second round.  If you pushed me one way or the other to say "can Grayson be a starting quality quarterback in the NFL, a guy that might get us to the Superbowl?" then I would say yes, yes I believe he can be.

Bryce Petty, Baylor

Would not waste the phone call even if he slipped into free agency.

Petty has an amazing arm. It seems like he can just flick his wrist and the ball goes flying down the field like a bullet. It's a pretty amazing feat of athletic ability. The problem is everything else, most notably accuracy. On screens and quick throws he's ok, and that right there tells you everything you need to know. "OK" at throwing the ball less than 10 yards. That is not the makings of an NFL quarterback.

Against weaker opposition I saw one game where he missed four wide open receivers and only hit a fifth because the receiver stopped running to catch the ball, then had to race away from the closing defender. Against a more competent opponent he completed just one pass beyond 10 yards from the LOS. To me it is utterly ridiculous that Petty is considered to be any kind of prospect at the NFL level, let along a top 5. He represents a lot of what is wrong with the scouting community.

Sean Mannion, Oregon State

It's crazy that Mannion is widely considered to be behind Petty in the rankings. Someone has to be pulling my leg. I swear. It has to just be TV analysts and the like trolling the fans for fun. Because there is no way, no way on Earth that Mannion is behind Petty, or Hundley, or Winston. It's utterly laughable that anyone could consider those three to be better prospects.

This kid is good. His accuracy is normally very good, though on some of the deep patterns the accuracy was often just a hair off. That has to make you wonder whether in the NFL the larger, more athletic receivers would be able to jump just that bit higher and reach out just that little bit further in order to make the grab? Sometimes on shorter patterns he has a tendency to not follow through properly with his throwing motion leading to the ball going low, but that's not such a huge issue because normally the ball will still be delivered safely, it just means that sometimes he misses out on bigger gains because the receiver has to stoop down to catch the ball, which in turn slows down their pattern and allows defenders to close. In general his ball placement is perhaps a little bit below the NFL average.

Mannion has good awareness of the field, his ability to read the coverage and pick out the right receiver is pretty impressive. The offense he played in was a pro-style system that mixed shotgun and under center in a roughly equal blend, with some formations spread right out and others very tight. That should make his transition to the NFL much, much easier. The coverage and blitz looks he saw in college will be much more representative of those he'll face at the pro level compared to many of the other quarterbacks on this list.

His arm strength is not great, so tight windows will become more of a problem, especially as NFL defenders will close those windows at a much faster rate than the typical teams that Oregon State played. Mannion is not especially mobile, so he's not going to be threatening anyone with his nifty feet, and his ability to keep a play alive and extend it is very limited. Sometimes he also seems to have a habit of checking down to his safety valves just a little too quickly.

Broadly speaking though I like Mannion. I would love for someone who is a top scout or top draft analyst to explain to me why Mannion is not more highly rated. Whatever his faults, he utterly wipes the floor with guys like Hundley and Petty. It's not even close, not a little bit. He is head and shoulders above them. I would say that Mannion is a mid round guy that still needs some work. At the very least he should make a capable back up and potentially with the right coaches and the right receivers he could be a decent starter in the NFL.

Blake Sims, Alabama,

I think the thing that immediately stands out watching Sims is a reaffirmation of my analysis last year that A.J. McCarron was the best quarterback of that draft. At the time everyone was saying that McCarron was the beneficiary of playing for Alabama and that made him look better than he really was. I think now people are perhaps realising that it was Alabama that was the beneficiary.

That's not to say that Sims is necessarily bad, he's just not that good. He could probably be a serviceable back up, someone who would sit on a practice squad and develop into that role over time. He has some good traits such as his impressive speed and elusiveness that allows him to avoid pressure and make plays with his feet.

The problem is when he throws the ball. Short distances, good. Intermediate distances, hmmm, 50-50. Long throws... let's not talk too much about that. And that's really the crux of the issue with Sims. He's not great, he's not bad, he's middle of the road. He does some things well and can put some drives together, without really shining or being the sort of guy who you want to put the ball in his hands with 2 minutes left to go. Has something to offer, but it's not a huge amount. If he went undrafted I'd consider giving him a call, but that depends on who else was on the market.

Taylor Heinicke, Old Dominion

You haven't experienced fun until you've tried to get hold of a copy of Old Dominion's offense! But was it worth it?

Meh, not really. Heinicke is quite inconsistent and he played on a frankly terrible team running a gimmicky offense. He made the odd nice throw, but most of his passes beyond dump offs were off target. He managed the quite remarkable feat of consistently over throwing wide open receivers as well, which is always good for a laugh. All in all, not worth the time.

Shane Carden, East Carolina

50 shades of Blaine Gabbert, racking up the yards running a dink and dunk, gimmicky offense. Not worth the time I don't think.

Brandon Bridge, South Alabama

Having watched Bridge throw the ball five yards in front of a wide open receiver I had that sinking feeling in my gut. "Here we go again" I thought. Then two or three plays later he pinged a beautiful shot down the field, 50 yards or more from QB to receiver, and hit his man perfectly in stride, with fantastic ball placement. It was a thing of absolute beauty.

And thus we have the dilemma that is Brandon Bridge. One minute he's missing an easy shot to a guy on a hook pattern, the next he's splitting the safeties like a pro to pick out a guy on a post pattern. It's absolutely infuriating! I'm glad I don't have to coach Bridge because he would drive me absolutely insane. But I love him anyway. Not enough to draft him I don't think. Maybe if he was still hanging around there late and there was nothing more appealing on the board then you might take a shot.

He has that raw talent, that kernel of core skills on which to build. The accuracy and strength to hit pretty much any throw that the NFL would ask him to make. He can read defenses and pick out the right guy. He can extend plays with his legs (being 6'5" helps). There's so many good things about Bridge. But the errors and inconsistency will kill him, and at the minute I don't think he can put it all together sufficiently to stay on the field as an NFL starter.

For that reason he's a project. He's a guy that will need work. And you wouldn't want to bet it all on this one guy. In time though, if those positive traits can be harnessed then I think Bridge is a decent long term prospect. I'd want to find a way to get him on my team.

Cody Fajardo, Nevada

Not for me thanks.

His throwing motion is awful, it's like a baseball pitch. He's not that accurate and has a major lack of arm strength. The offense he ran appeared to be very much a specific, simple system, one that I think will hold him back in the transition to the NFL. He doesn't even look like a back up. He looks like a kid playing against adults. Me personally I'd pass on Fajardo.

Hutson Mason, Georgia

Not sure why he's even being considered? It seems like every throw he makes is behind the receiver and he just appears like he's constantly panicking and rushing. Waste of a roster spot.

Anthony Boone, Duke

At one point I watched him throw 5 or 6 incomplete passes in a row. What was most worrying about this was they were a mixture of short, intermediate and deep passes. The offense he ran was a bit gimmicky, lot's of short passing and screens. Just generally not that impressive. I'd pass.

Taylor Kelly, Arizona State

We'll deal with the problems first. Kelly is tall and skinny, so unless he puts on a bit of muscle you're always going to be holding your breath anytime he takes a big shot. He played almost his entire career in the shotgun/pistol, so he only has a limited experience of under center offense (he did a bit). The offense was one of those that I hate where sometimes they would come up to the LOS and then have to look back to the coach who makes any adjustments. I don't like that because it takes some of the decision making out of the quarterbacks hands and I think it can have an effect on the quarterbacks confidence. Finally sometimes his deeper passes lack a bit of zip, so there's a question mark whether he could make some of the tighter NFL throws.

On the plus side he is generally very good. He is pretty accurate and really excels when throwing on the run, even if not being that athletic. He did make some NFL-esque throws and that's what makes me wonder whether he'd be able to hit these in the NFL. I think even though his offense in college was somewhat limited, he has the talent to convert and be able to make all the passes on a more developed route tree that would be expected in the pros.

He's a bit jittery in the pocket, partly because his offensive line was not strong enough to hold up to some of the more aggressive pass rushes, which meant that he was rushed far more often than he was allowed to sit comfortably and throw. This I suspect is one of the reasons that his coaches called so many plays that required him to move, because it gave him the chance to keep his distance from some of the better rushers.

Overall though I like Kelly. I highly doubt he'll get drafted, so it's probably going to be a case of getting called into someones camp for a tryout. And in the long run I think Kelly is good enough to at the very least fight for a backup spot. He's another one of these guys that will take a bit of time to learn his craft at the next level, but I think he has the raw tools to make that happen and to be a success in the long run with the right coaching. 

Dylan Thompson, South Carolina

The big knock on Thompson right now, the one that seems to have got everybody on a downer about him, is his footwork. And it's true that his footwork is shocking. Just, shocking. Sometimes he drops back properly, but more often than not he goes into this weird sort of hopping movement, a bit like Peyton Manning in the pocket except he's doing it as part of his dropback. It's really bizarre and really very unorthodox (and slightly comical).

And I don't care one bit about that. I like to learn from my mistakes, and I made a big mistake back in 2011 when I backed quarterback Christian Ponder to do well based on the quality of his footwork and technique. I'm also reminded of comments made by Bill Walsh about the danger of over-coaching players; if the player can perform to the standard required then there is no point pushing too hard to change a technique area that isn't "textbook" (or words to that effect).

That's why I don't care about Thompson's appalling and inconsistent footwork. To me it would be ridiculous to write off what is clearly a talented kid just because he doesn't move his feet the way the coaching DVDs say he should. It sounds an awful lot to me like a scout speak cop out, designed to cover someones butt in case Thompson doesn't pan out at the next level.

And there are some reasons why he might not. He does make some bad throws now and again, many of which though seem to stem from a miscommunication between him and one of his receivers. He played almost the whole of last year in the shotgun and so may find it difficult to transition to an offense where he spends more time under center. 

Making that transition harder could be the fact that he's only a one year starter, having had to sit and wait his turn for the opportunity to shine. You can see an element of that lack of experience in how he handles pressure. Behind an O-line that really seemed to struggle with the pass rush all season long he often found himself hurried into throws or on the run, something which he never really seemed comfortable with, not least because he doesn't have the speed to be racing away from defensive linemen. He needs to learn how to hang in there and make the throw, even if it means taking a hit.

But credit where credit is due he was really good. Though he's only been starting this year, he's been in what is effectively an NFL system under Steve Spurrier, just all out of the shotgun. His deep passing isn't always the greatest in the world, but he does have quite a bit of zip on his throws, he can put touch on those long lobs, and his ball placement is probably the best I've seen so far.

And in a nutshell, I think he has a lot of potential. Sometimes it can feel a bit like he's just managing the game and not taking control of it, but he made a pretty wide range of passes and generally was a good decision maker. He's a little raw still, the product of so much time on the bench, but if he's this good after just one year as the starter I'd be really intrigued to see where he can go three years from now.

For that reason I'm going to throw my hat into the ring and back Thompson. He may ultimately prove to be one of those quarterbacks like a Matt Ryan, someone who makes a bunch of decent throws but never seems to be able to pull it all together when it matters, but I think he has a much better than average chance to go on and be successful. Something of a project, but a project with a great amount of promise I feel, one that if it was down to me I'd be willing to invest in. I think his potential ceiling is very, very high.

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And that pretty much rounds up the quarterbacks. Not a classic year for quarterbacks by any means but I think there's some guys in there who have promising futures in the NFL.

Next up is the running backs. If you liked this post then please share it and leave a comment below. See you next time.

"That" Superbowl pass

So, there's been quite a lot of mudslinging around the Seahawks decision to pass it for the go ahead, potentially game winning touchdown in the Superbowl. The hype train has been going into overdrive, so today I want to put the brakes on, take the train back to the station and help everyone get off it.

There are several reasons that I want to touch on as to why the Seahawks decision to throw it was not as dumb as many people think.

The first is because of the 'cheat sheet'. This is the sheet of laminated paper that you see the coaches holding on the sideline. Cheat sheets of this nature started appearing (to the best of my knowledge) during the 80's and were predominantly driven by coaches from the Bill Walsh lineage. Regardless of who invented it, the theory behind the cheat sheet is very simple; it's easier and more reliable to make decisions on a Thursday night during the week, when you have the opponents game film to hand, a copy of both rosters, information about who your best performers are, who the opponents best performers are etc, than it is to make one in a split second during the pressure of the game.

Every coach understands this. It's incredibly hard to make snap decisions that are properly informed. You'll almost inevitably forget some piece of information or another that has an impact on the outcome. Sitting in an office however, with a nice cup of coffee at hand, you can check and double check most of the important factors that might influence the play. You can double check the opponents film if you have to. And so you put together your cheat sheet.

On that cheat sheet will be a section that covers short yardage plays around the goalline. It may even have a section for plays specifically designed to be run in this situation (short yardage goalline, sub 30 second, need a touchdown). It's possible the Seahawks would even have those plays in a specific order. And like any coach with any degree of experience they would probably have lingering memories of a previous incident where they went "off sheet" and tried to call a play on the fly... and it failed miserably.

On that note I'm guessing that the Seahawks had a play lined up and they went with the play on the sheet. While it may be hard for Seahawks fans to accept, that is the kind of play calling decision that has gotten you to the Superbowl two years in a row in the first place, and will probably take you back to the Superbowl at some point in the near future. In the long run sticking with the sheet is the right call. In the same vein that just because it snows sometimes where you live that doesn't mean global warming isn't a thing, just because sometimes the play that was called doesn't work that doesn't mean that overall your playcalling strategy is bad.

On to the second point and a bit of tough love Seattle fans; stop talking about Marshawn Lynch like it was a guaranteed touchdown. Stop it. You're making yourselves ill.

Because the reality is that while Marshawn Lynch has been a great running back for the Seahawks and has had some amazing runs, sometimes it doesn't quite work like that. Sometimes the opposition get the defensive penetration they need and Lynch goes nowhere. The Patriots had made several plays of this nature during the game. Everyone saying "give it to Lynch" is missing the point that Lynch may not have actually gotten the yards needed. Then what?

Conversely the play that Seattle ran has a league wide very high success rate. That's because Seattle ran what's called a pick play, where one receiver deliberately tries to block an opposing defender in order to set up a free catch for his team mate.

Pick plays are actually banned under the rules (they come under offensive pass interference). The reason they're banned is because they are almost impossible to defend against. Normally in order to defend them you need a player to do the two things that Butler did for the Patriots a) recognise the play almost instantly and b) commit defensive pass interference to stop the catch.

Yet despite being banned almost everyone has this play in their playbook. The Patriots (one of the worst historical offenders for this, along with Peyton Manning) ran a pick play themselves earlier in the game. So why does everyone run it if it's banned? Because the officials almost never call it. The use of the pick has been growing dramatically in the last few years as a result of the fact that officials don't throw the flag. Why not run a play that is practically guaranteed to work if the officials aren't going to flag it and everyone else is running it?

Typically pick plays are reserved for tight spots. I mentioned both Manning and the Patriots, both of whom will normally reserve the pick play for difficult third downs, such as third and six. When they can't get it done using their regular offense, it's time to dial up the pick play. Both have been doing it for years and lately everyone else has been jumping on the bandwagon too. As have Seattle, clearly.

And yes, before anyone jumps in, what Butler did was pass interference. I personally think that kind of physical play should be permitted, but per the rulebook what Butler did was quite blatantly pass interference. He used his shoulder and hit the receiver off the ball. On first and ten, anywhere else on the field, that would have drawn a flag.

So where is all this talk of picks going? Well basically just to point out that it was perfectly reasonable for the Seahawks coaches to think that the play they called would result in a touchdown. They could run that same play a hundred times during a season and would reasonably expect it to work (or draw a defensive flag) probably 95 times out of those 100 attempts. Again, this is precisely why pick plays are (at least officially) banned, because the success rate is so ridiculously high. The Seahawks just happened to encounter a case of exceptionally bad luck (and defensive pass interference, which in a sense serves them right). 

We also have to consider the clock. The Seahawks had just the one time out left. A run would probably have forced them to use their time out, which then would have meant calling two plays in the huddle. They might have got a shot to run it after a timeout, but then would have had to have desperately scrambled to get off a final shot.

Throwing the ball gave them an additional option. An incomplete pass would have stopped the clock and let them go back to the huddle. Now you can run it and then call a time out to give yourself time before a final shot. 

In summary, as hard as it may be for Seattle fans to swallow, the reality is that their coaches made the right choice at the time (the only thing you can judge them for). Ultimately they were beaten by Butlers alertness, physicality, and an exceptional piece of bad luck. Oh, and not being able to hold onto their earlier lead. As a 49ers fan I'm chuckling at this whole saga and I suspect most Seattle fans will eventually calm down and realise that their team is in an exceptional position to make yet another Superbowl run next year, while my own will be lucky to finish above the Rams in the division.

Just one more note on the Pats alleged ball tampering

For now at least, until the league's investigation has been concluded. 

See a lot of people have pointed to the deflated balls issue and said that it would help in the passing game, but not in the run game where the Pats did so well against the Colts. That's not strictly true though. A deflated football, especially one deflated by over 2 psi compared to normal, would be easier to hold for the ball carrier and more difficult to punch out for defenders. This would suggest that a team using deflated balls would see its fumble rate drop.

In the 2013 regular season the Pats were tied for the fifth most fumbles in the league with 10. This year? Tied for 1st with the Giants with just the one fumble. Now, correlation and causation are not the same thing. But it's just another thing to store away in the back of your mind until the results of the NFL's investigation come out.

#Flexball

Probably the funniest thing about this whole deflated balls saga came today with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick giving speeches to the press in front of an advertising hoarding that had the line "#flexball" on it. Oops!

"Ineligible Gate"

I do intend to resurrect this blog as the draft season approaches, but for now I just want to chip in to "ineligible gate" from the Ravens/Pats playoff game.

As amusing as it is watching Harbaugh have a good complain, and as much as the Ravens are guilty of a) not recognising that a tight end was lined up on the left side, which is basically just the same as flipping the strength of a conventional formation to the left, and b) throwing away their lead, they do seem to have a point on the controversial plays.

I unfortunately did not have time to watch the game (though I have since reviewed the plays in question) but my understanding is that Shane Vereen did not report as being ineligible until he was at or near the line of scrimmage, just seconds before the ball was snapped. 

This is a clear violation of the rules on reporting eligibility, which require players to inform the referee immediately if they are intending to play in a manner that alters their eligibility compared to the number on their jersey. The key word is "Immediately" which is generally understood to mean as soon as the player enters the field of play, and at the very latest as soon as the huddle has been broken. 

If you're running to the line of scrimmage having not informed the ref than two things are apparent a) you already know that you are going to be ineligible on the play and b) you have deliberately passed up an opportunity to inform the officials of this fact. That - per Rule 5, Section 3, Article 1 - is a five yard penalty for an illegal substitution. No ifs, no buts. It's a clear penalty, and it's also clear that the Patriots would have known this before hand and tried to sneak one (successfully in this case) past the refs. A bit like their persistent use of illegal "pick" plays.

A new season beckons

Apologies to the people who have been checking in on the site. I originally did draw up some diagrams as part of my off season plan, but then like the tit that I am managed to lose these somewhere within the bowels of my computer. I am intending to cover the 2014 season for those that are interested, just not sure when I will get round to kicking it all off (pun not intended). Hopefully I'll be able to squeeze in the time for some thoughts ahead of week one. 

Just can't believe football is so close now. Seems like this offseason has breezed by.