Week 15 picks (part 2)

Five games left to pick, so let's get straight to business. Atlanta Falcons @ Seattle Seahawks: Pick Seattle? Not a chance. No way in hell. Not when the Falcons have played as well as they have this season and the Seahawks have played as badly as they have. And the Seahawks have indeed played badly. While their offense occasionally splutters into life and Matt Hasselbeck is able to find receivers down field, or Marshawn Lynch is able to come up with a big run, in general the Seahawks offense is terrible. They can't block very well. Their pass protection often borders on the amateurish. It's just a complete and utter shambles that often gets masked by their ability to generate points in the return game and to occasionally play very good defense. Albeit very occasionally. Compare and contrast that with the Falcons, who offensively do a lot of things very well. As in, everything. Michael Turner is having a great year behind an offensive line that routinely manages to bundle defenses out his path. Matt Ryan has been summoning his inner Joe Montana at times to lead his team on beautiful last minute drives. And Roddy White is putting on a Pro Bowl caliber season. The Falcons defense is no slouch either. Their pass rush has excelled as Kroy Biermann poses a genuine threat opposite John Abraham. Curtis Lofton is the rock at the center of an improving linebacking unit. And every now and again, even the secondary pitches in with a big play or two. It's just a team that is playing good all around football. Unlike the Seahawks. Falcons win. Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders: I'm preparing for a storm. I suggest you do to. Tim Tebow, the very famous quarterback from the University of Florida, will finally take to the NFL field as a starter. God help us. Now this may sound odd because I really like Tebow, enough to stick him on my watch list. So why the concern? Because the Broncos suck right now and expecting Tebow to waltz onto the field right at the end of the season and perform a football magic trick is unrealistic. It's good for him to get playing time, but it's more of a test run that a final evaluation. Except we all know that's not how the press works when it comes to football. A lot of people are going to be expecting Tebow to just go out there and perform like he was still with the Gators. Certainly the Tebow haters will be waiting with bated breath (yes, that is the correct spelling, go and check) to pounce. I can hear the sound of a thousand knives being sharpened, ready to be plunged into Tim if he produces anything less than a 100 QB rating. It doesn't help that he'll kick off his starting career with a game against the Raiders, who -- other than the odd bout of temporary organisational memory loss -- are very good (ish). They have a good (ish) offense. They have a good (ish) defense. They even have a pretty good (ish) return game. And let's face it, the Broncos are the Broncos, which means everything possible that could go wrong probably will. Raiders win. New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers: This game has the potential to get real ugly, real quickly. Mark Sanchez struggled against the Patriots. He struggled against the Dolphins. What is he going to do against the Steelers? I think Dick LeBeau is probably sitting in his office right now, licking his chops and digging into his playbook looking for ways to force Sanchez into repeatedly making mistakes. He'll have to do it without Tory Polamalu though, who I understand will miss the Steelers final three games of the regular season due an Achilles injury. That's a serious blow to this defense, as we all know about the play making abilities of Polamalu. But they should be comforted by the fact that they have the best front seven in football right now. That should be more than enough to overwhelm the Jets unusually shaky O-line and it's 2nd year QB who is most definitely off form. If the Jets can just get their receivers to catch a few more passes, they might be in with a fighting chance, but that also presumes that Rex Ryan's defense will come up good. That for me is where the biggest surprise lays. Watching the Jets defense against the Patriots was almost painful at times. How did they fall apart so tremendously? Even against the terrible Dolphins they struggled. Very un-Ryan like defensive play. Not that the Steelers offense is bordering on anything approaching juggernaut status. But they do seem to have that knack of coming good at the right moments. Given a shot or two due to Sanchez mistakes, Roethlisberger and the Steelers could pounce mercilessly. Or they could fall flat on their face. I'm going with number 1. Steelers win. Green Bay Packers @ New England Patriots: Last week the Packers fell to the Lions after Aaron Rodgers found his head introduced rather abruptly to the cold, hard turf. Matt Flynn was his plucky replacement... and that didn't go so well. Now remember that the Patriots defense is one of the league leaders in interceptions and that the Patriots offense is light years ahead of the Lions offense that only managed 7 points (enough for a win) last week. I'll keep this one short. Patriots win. Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings: All hail Joe Webb! For he shall be the starting quarterback of the Vikings on Monday at TCF stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota, the Vikings home away from home. At least until they get that retarded roof fixed at their proper home. Now, I actually happen to like Joe Webb. From what we saw of him in pre-season he appeared to have picked up the offense well, and very much unlike Favre he actually had some good mobility in his legs. Is that enough to beat the Bears? It depends. The Bears are not a team that indulges in a lot of fancy blitzing, preferring their straight and simple cover two look instead. That will help Webb. What would also help would be a hefty dose of Adrian Peterson, if only to take some of the pressure off of Webb and help him to settle into the game early. Even then, he still has to deal with a Bears defense that -- other than the odd blip -- has been very, very good this year. Very sound and very good at stripping ball carriers. The question for me is really whether the Bears offense can overcome the Vikings slightly more toothless 2010 pass rush and put just enough points on the board to win it? That could prove difficult as Jay Cutler isn't exactly firing on all cylinders this year. The run game had a brief Forte into the limelight (chortle, chortle) but has since fizzled out. I have a feeling this one will be a low scorer and Jay Cutler will produce just enough. Bears win. Have a great day everyone.

Week 15 picks (part1)

It's that time again. Sunday picks part 1. New Orleans Saints @ Baltimore Ravens: Great. First game up and I'm stuck. Ultimately I have to pick one of these two teams, but the problem is that every time I pick against either team it comes back to bite me in the butt. So either way I'm bound to lose. I'm destined by the gods of football to be cursed to defeat. A bit like the Lions on the road. I have to pick somebody though and the teams don't make it easy. The Saints are slipping under the radar somewhat with the success of the Falcons being the main storyline in the NFC South. It looks like New Orleans is almost destined now to at least take a wild card spot. But they're far from perfect. Drew Brees is throwing touchdowns. But he's also throwing interceptions; more than usual. The rushing attack is back up and running, but it still struggles from time to time. The defense is creating turnovers, but not as frequently as it did last year. In essence, everything that went right for the Saints last year is sort of going right again this year. Baltimore is also having a mini-but-not-quite revival. Their defense is playing superbly. Terrell Suggs in particular is having a great year. But at times they struggle on the back end. It looks distinctly like Ed Reed might have lost a step. Couple that with an offense that seems to suffer from periodic bouts of poor execution in both pass protection and play-calling (especially late in games) and you have a recipe for a team that can win big games... and can just as easily shoot itself in the foot. Weighing all the factors into it, I think the Saints might just sneak this one. Their receivers against the Ravens secondary is a good match up. Their O-line is pretty stout and their defense shouldn't have to do anything spectacular against an offense that has no identity or consistency. Saints win. Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers: Oh my god. Someone is actually going to have to sit and watch this game. Poor sods. So the craptastic Cardinals travel to the equally craptastic Panthers to play a game that sadly could potentially kick start the 4-9 Cardinals into making a recovery and going on to win the NFC West. Only in the NFC West could this even be plausible. So who wins? (who cares?) God love them, because nobody else does, I think it may just be Carolina. I say this because personally I think both teams are horrible, but on balance the Panthers may just be a little less horrible. I trust their defense a little more than I trust the Cardinals. It's not like Carolina to do me any favours though, so this probably has "bad pick" written all over it. Ah well, screw it. Panthers win. Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals: Colt McCoy returns to the starting line up as the Browns finally learn the lesson that everyone else did about a year ago; Jake Delhomme sucks. Luckily for the Browns, so do the Bengals. This game is more about pride than anything else, and you just get that sense that the Browns still have some pride left. That, and the fact that the Bengals suck. So, Browns win. Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys: Speaking of teams that suck... the Washington Redskins! (See that segue? Smooth as silk). We'll get into this more lately, but in summary the Redskins are currently in self destruct mode. The only possible explanation for what's happening in Washington is that they're in the market for a QB and want to pick as early as possible come next April. Because (I know! Grammar) this surely can't be a team that wants to win games. Otherwise they wouldn't have so horrendously botched their 2 minute drill at the end of the first half last week. They wouldn't have wasted the talents (and money) of Albert Haynesworth just so that Mike Shanahan could win the chest thumping competition. And they wouldn't have benched McNabb who, while having his occasional moments of pure mediocrity, has still been pretty good. We'll get into this deeper, later. For now, suffice to say that morale in Washington seems to be at an all time low. The quality of their play is at an all time low. And the quality of their coaching is at an all time low. The Cowboys should walk this. In theory. Cowboys win. Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts: Christ, am I really about to say this; The Jaguars are one win away from clinching the AFC South. There you go. I said it. One win away. All the Jaguars have to do is beat the Colts (easy as that) and they're playoff bound. Somehow. At the start of the season I would have given you 50-1 odds that the Jaguars would make the playoffs and I would have smiled as I gleefully took your money and stowed it away safe. Skip forward a few months and I would be anxiously biting my nails to the bone, praying that somehow Peyton Manning could perform a miracle. Of course there is currently nobody better to have on the football field when you need a miracle than Manning. Even short of a few key weapons, Manning is still lethal. Lost in the clamour to deride the Colts for their recent losing streak was the fact that Manning has still been throwing for a ridiculous number of yards. Take out his more recent interceptions and I remember someone working it out that Manning would be completing 80% of his passes, despite throwing in excess of 40 times per game. That's just crazy. Or lucky. Or very good. Or a combination of all those things. And as much as I like Maurice Jones-Drew (with the exception of his end zone celebrations) and as much as I like Rashad Jennings, having spent the best part of 12 months championing him, I still like the Colts more. Their defense may struggle to contain the run, but I think the Jaguars secondary is going to struggle even more to contain Manning and his hi-octane attack. Looks like I might be holding on to that bet money for a little longer. Colts win. Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins: Two teams. No more dreams. At least this year. So it comes down to divisional pride once more, and I'm not sure how much the Dolphins have left, because they just seem deflated lately. Whether it's the departure of Bill Parcells, their poor home record (1-5), the controversy at quarterback, or some other mysterious reason, the Dolphins appear to be in the mood to just pack up and go back into hibernation for the winter. Not so the Bills, who have fought tooth and nail this year since Ryan Fitzpatrick was installed as the starter. Shame that they're just not very good really. But a bad Bills team could just well be a match for a battered and broken Dolphins team. I'm reminded of one of my favourite coaching phrases that I unashamedly stole from a high school coach; "Hard work beats talent, when talent doesn't work hard." The Dolphins are probably slightly more talented, but the Bills look harder working. I've also noticed that this is the second season in a row that a Mike Nolan coached defense has flopped in the second half of the season. Bills win. Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants: The prime clash of the weekend goes down in the New Meadowlands as the Eagles visit the Giants for a game that could potentially decide the NFC East this season. The loser would still have a good crack at the playoffs through a wild card berth, but obviously both teams would be happier with the win and the prospect of automatic qualification. Which means all bets are off. Both teams are likely to bring a higher level of intensity. Both coaches will be digging deep and staying up late to put all the final touches and odd tweaks on the game plan. Its game time! Hyperbole done, who wins? The Eagles with their explosive offense and slightly unstable defense, or the Giants with their rugged & athletic D tied to an offense that can be so-so? I think New York has the edge. Last time these two came face to face, the Giants figured out a plan for keeping Michael Vick in check. They executed it well and it nearly paid off. Unfortunately, Eli "butter fingers" Manning ran for a first down and then promptly fumbled the ball away in comical fashion. Since that game the Giants defense has gotten even more dangerous. Rookie Jason Pierre-Paul has been coming alive, as has the rest of the front seven. More importantly, so has the Giants offense. Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw have been a revelation in the past two weeks. They're simply putting up ridiculous numbers on the ground, smashing defenses out of the way and scooting untouched to the end zone as if it were a routine thing for NFL running backs. The ease with which they have carved up defenses, coupled with stout play from their own defense leads me to believe it will be a happy revenge game for the Giants. Giants win. Kansas City Chiefs @ St. Louis Rams: What we're looking at is potentially two Western division champions. Potentially. That cause will be hampered by the fact that they have to play each other on Sunday afternoon (Eastern). But can the Chiefs overcome their terrible road record to pull out the win, or will the Rams remain reasonably solid at home and take another step closer to winning the west? Put simply, you can't trust the Chiefs on the road. Especially if they're missing Matt Cassel again. I also don't trust the Chiefs to run the ball, which is where there greatest strength lies with the one-two punch of Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones. I've seen it too many times. I put faith in a team to do the right thing and they don't. (Wait, didn't I just back the Giants based on them doing the right thing...) With or without Cassel at quarterback, the Chiefs routinely struggle through the air. While Dwayne Bowe making great touchdown grabs might make the highlight reels, the truth is that the Chiefs are not a premier passing team. That's not what they do. It's not "who they are". Yet last week we saw an abundance of poor Brodie Croyle who was thrust into action against a brutal Chargers defense. The Chiefs have to reverse that trend this week, but hoping that they will is not sufficient for me to pick them. As I said, too many times I have relied on a good team doing what seemed logical and thus ended up getting burnt when they threw out the rule book and went spread offense on my ass. So with that in mind I'm taking the Rams. They have a pretty good team of their own now. RB Steven Jackson and QB Sam Bradford seem to complement each other well. They have a pass rush which has mysteriously evolved out of nothing over the course of the season. Sometimes they even make big plays on defense. Sometimes. Rams win. Detroit Lions @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: This is what happens when you use planned parity. You get Lions vs Buccaneers games. Which actually isn't that bad. Both teams have significantly upgraded themselves for this season, though only one team seems to have found a way to consistently turn upgrades into wins. The Lions have been good. At times great. But they lack that cutting edge, that killer instinct. They've also been done by shitty officiating in two games against the Bears, but that's something they can't control and sadly the things they can control they just don't control very well. It's like an uncontrolled demolition (point belaboured and murdered). The Buccaneers are the opposite. At times they've been staring certain defeat in the eyes and yet somehow have a knack of squeezing out of tight spots. When they do, they then go into assassin mode and finish off opponents mercilessly. Kind of. That's why I have to take Tampa Bay. Relatively speaking the Lions probably have more talent on their roster, but they never seem to be able to get all that talent working at once towards a unified goal. The Buccaneers meanwhile line up and just let LeGarrette Blount pound and beat the opposition into submission, before Josh Freeman applies the coup de grace. It's not as pretty and it's susceptible to being exposed by the better teams, but against teams like the Lions it gets the job done. Fire The Cannons! Buccaneers win. Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans: This should be pretty easy, mainly because of how bad the Titans are. I'm not saying that the Texans are saints, immune to any and all criticism. But they're not the Titans. Which is lucky for Houston because the Titans are bad right now. They have almost no sense of direction. Coach Jeff Fisher seems resigned to the fact that as the weeks pass it becomes more and more apparent that he will lose his job at the end of the season. The Vince Young fiasco may have been tipping the point. Now put that up against the Texans, who fought valiantly to drag themselves back into last Mondays game against the Ravens. Admittedly they wouldn't have had to drag themselves back if it weren't for their inept defense and poor special teams coverage, but that's not the point. The Titans are nowhere close to being an offensive threat and the Texans know it. Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson should have a feast, joined later in the game by Arian Foster. Texans win. So that's part one of my week 15 picks all done and dusted. The rest will follow tomorrown. But before I head to bed and you head to... wherever it is you're headed, there's just time to indulge in some slightly unnecessary but ultimately rewarding bashing of ProFootballTalk.com. Well, partly. First off they did post a good article regarding the benching of Donovan McNabb. Apparently Mike Shanahan wants Rex Grossman to start and wants to see how John Beck will perform in the "number 2 role". I'm sorry? The number 2 role? As in, how does John Beck cope with standing on the sideline and doing precisely jack shit during the game while Grossman is out on the field filling the only real QB role available on the team. Now I have no issues with the Grossman part of it. McNabb has been good in general but hasn't exactly lit up the world and is prone to mistakes at critical moments, usually trying to bounce the ball off the turf to his receivers as if it were a basketball game. I get that. I understand that you want to test Grossman out to see if he will be any better for next year. But to demote McNabb to number 3 on the depth chart and say that you want to see how John Beck performs as a number 2? That's just downright disrespectful to someone who has tried to stay cool and calm during his tenure and has tried to maintain an air of professionalism around his team. This is basically a kick in the teeth. What exactly is John beck going to do on Sunday as the "number 2 guy" ........... ? Precisely; fuck all. This is nothing more than a petty snub at McNabb by Shanahan, trying to divert blame onto him for the franchises failings this season. Heaven forbid anyone should point the finger at Mike Shanahan, the great Shanahan who has fallen very rapidly from the lofty highs of football coaching fame ever since losing John Elway to retirement. And most of all old Mike has to protect and mask the ineptitude of his son Kyle Shanahan as the offensive coordinator, or else some might begin to question whether Shanahan the younger isn't just riding his fathers name to get along in the NFL. Not that I might be suggesting the NFL is one big 'old boys' club.... Next from PFT.com is the Friday 10 pack by Mike Florio, in particular focusing on item 2. According to Florio, Ravens QB Joe Flacco is an elite quarterback and Falcons QB Matt Ryan is not, based entirely on playoff records. Personally I think neither of them has been around long enough to be considered "Elite", but if push came to shove I'd take Ryan over Flacco in a heartbeat. See, what Florio seems to be missing is that while indeed Flacco has the greater number of playoff wins, that's not what the question of elite quarterbacks is about. The Ravens have won the games they have under Flacco largely because of a combination of their defense and Ray Rice. If anything, Flacco has been holding back a very good team that arguably should have been to another Super Bowl by now. Contrast that with Ryan, who has been a quality quarterback that has lead his offense well, been hailed as a great leader on the team and this season has earned a reputation for being a "clutch" QB (which makes all the more puzzling Florio's assertion that; "This year, we’d rather have Flacco under center in a money game, especially if that game is being played away from home.") What has held back Ryan in his career so far is a defense that has taken till 2010 to become truly competitive. Even then they often have a habit of leaving the door just slightly ajar for the opposition, forcing Ryan to Cooley drive down the field in the last few minutes in order to slam that door shut. To me, trying to suggest the notion that Flacco is a superior QB to Ryan is as obviously ludicrous as trying to convince someone that a lump of coal is much brighter than a snowball. But then I've come to expect such ridiculousness from Mike Florio of late. Tit. And finally from the hallowed pages of PFT.com, Michael David Smith tries to convince the world that somehow Miles Austin has had his talent drained away by a mysterious force and is no longer worthy of the contract extension he received. I find this hard to believe. Minus Tony Romo, everyone on the Cowboys team has suffered a dip in their numbers. Part of this is strategic. Part of this is Kitna's struggles with the deep ball. Very little of it seems to be Austins fault. The impression I get from the article is that the author wants to make Jerry Jones look silly (not usually a hard thing) for paying Austin. But the fact is that with the ball in his hands this season, Austin has been every bit as good as he was last year. If the Cowboys could just find more ways to feed the monster then I'm sure he'd happily indulge himself with a nice serving of yards and touchdowns. Have a great day everyone. (E-mail any abuse to: keepingthechainsmoving@live.co.uk )

Thursday Night Football

Time for a bit of Thursday Night pick 'em. But first, more complaining. I have a simple question; who the hell does Rodger Goodell think he is? Two of the latest fines that have caught my attention are these: Kenny Britt; fined $5,000 for wearing a towel that had "#10 VY" written on it during the Colts game. Tony Brown; fined $5,000 for wearing red cleats during the Colts game. I don't get it? How in the name of god does the NFL have the power or even the right to fine someone $5,000 (Five. Thousand. Dollars.) just for wearing a pair of cleats that aren't of an approved color? I could understand if the team itself wanted to discipline a player who had been asked not to do a certain thing (like wear red cleats) or who they felt was taking actions negative to the clubs image (with the VY towel), but even then not to the tune of $5,000. It's just getting ludicrous. The amount of control wielded by the commissioner and the way it's being wielded is absolutely absurd. What annoys me the most though is three fold: 1) Goodell's smug face. 2) Why the national media aren't doing more. 3) Why the players aren't doing more. Everyone just seems to be sitting on their God damn hands hoping that this is some aberration for the 2010 season that will blow over in time. Well it's not going to is it. What we've seen consistently is that if Goodell wants something and nobody puts up a fight, then he gets it. He's not going to back down from his current dictatorial approach unless someone applies a little pressure. Which is why I'd like to see the US media do something for a change. The analysts on NFL Network sometimes mention it in passing, or complain during a highlight reel, but I don't see an organised resistance. I don't see them banding together and making their feelings known more vociferously. And what about the other networks? Everyone complains briefly but then does nothing more. Why? As a mere blogger with a (very) limited reach, I have basically zero power to put a stop to all of this. But the big networks? They represent (or at least should do) NFL fans across the states and the world, and they have an obligation I feel to make the fans concerns known. They also have the power, if they dislike Goodell (which, judging by their comments many do) to put that message out there and make it clear that Goodell is an ass who needs to go. And the Players? I've heard some comments from a few Baltimore and Pittsburgh players, but that's it. The rest of the league..... almost nothing. Everyone seems to be happy to complain about these things on Twitter or to quietly grumble to their local rag, but where is the concerted effort to make a stand? When are these people going to grow a sack and start hitting out with a unified voice against Goodell? Yeah you might get fined a few thousand dollars. Yeah maybe the owners might look at you with a little suspicion. But that's why you all get together and go balls to the wall to make a point. That goes for the press to. They've got to stop kissing Goodell's ass and actually stand up for what's right. Just look at that weasel Mike Florio at ProFootballTalk.com. He used to be all about the fans and reporting unbiasedly about whatever issues came up. Now he's practically a step away from being Goodell's lap dog because he smells a chance to get a permanent slot on NBC television. This is precisely what free speech and free press was designed for; to allow people to hit back at dictatorial regimes like Goodell's. It's about fucking time some of these big shot media people exercised that right and told Goodell - on behalf of the fans if nothing else - where he can stuff his fines, stuff his "enhanced season" and where he can stuff his ridiculous "roughing the passer" penalties too! Ahem. What was I saying? Ah yes, Thursday Night pick! San Francisco 49ers @ San Diego Chargers: Interesting. The 49ers had a great game last Sunday, as did the Chargers. Both teams need a win pretty badly to keep alive their respective hopes of making it to the playoffs. Of course, the fact that I just mentioned the 49ers and the playoffs in the same sentence says a lot about the NFC West this year. San Francisco's hopes are alive only because of the spectacular level of mediocrity that exists in their division. They've been no better really. Or have they? After getting soundly whipped by the Seahawks in week 1, they then took the defending Super Bowl champions right to the wire. The Chiefs battered them the next week only for the 49ers to have the Falcons nearly wrapped up a week later. Only a god awful fumble allowed the Falcons to snatch victory from the Jaws of certain defeat. A week after the 49ers took the Eagles to the wire and lost by 3, then went on to beat the Raiders. Then lost, somehow, to the Panthers. They then beat the Broncos and Rams in successive games before being blown out by the Bucs'. They trounced the Cardinals, got run over a week later by the Packers, then hammered the Seahawks into the floor. All in all, something of a sketchy season for my 49ers. But they are probably a bit better than that record tells. Especially when you look at the performance of Alex Smith last week. Operating in the Shotgun and using more of a spread style look, Smith was suddenly back in his comfort zone and doing well. Well enough to beat the Chargers? That's hard to say. The 49ers defense isn't exactly the most stout in the league, despite sporting a number of very good (read; under rated) players at various positions. That kind of poses a problem against the Chargers, what with them having Philip Rivers at Quarterback. And Vincent Jackson at wide receiver. And the rest of the Chargers receivers. And Jacob Hester at Fullback. And Mike Tolbert or Darren Sproles at running back. That's before we even get to the defense. In summary; shit bags. Chargers win. Have a great day everyone.

Week 15 round up

With Monday Nights game wrapped up, it's time to see how I got on pick wise with my Week 15 round up. So far I'm 1-1 this week: Patriots 17 @ Bills 10 -- Two words. Pass. Interference. I consider myself quite a grouchy, cynical person. And I've noticed that better teams certainly do get the rub of the green. The Colts basically live off a large number of 'pick' or 'rub' plays, which are supposed to be illegal. And anytime the Pats need a helping hand it seems all they have to do is throw a bomb to Moss and watch the little yellow flags fly. It's a joke and both of those big calls resulted in touchdowns. 2-1. Browns 41 @ Chiefs 34 -- Wow. Having laughed at this fixture for it's seemingly poor quality, it turned out to be quite the game. Special teams certainly made their mark as Josh Cribbs set a new NFL single season record for kick returns for TDs. But it was Jerome Harrison, in his 4th season now, who really stole the show. 34 carries for 286 yards and 3 TDs. I keep saying it to people but no one seems to listen. That production from Harrison is equal to what many of the best QBs in the league produce passing when they get 34 throws. And it's a whole lot more productive than what the worst QBs in the league get out of 34 throws. Credit to Brady Quinn though. He only got 17 attempts but still managed to complete just 10 of them and throw 2 picks. On a more positive note he did turn 4 scrambles into 39 yards. Maybe he just missed his calling. 2-2. Falcons 10 @ Jets 7 -- And from one exciting game to..... an abomination of the footballing kind. And to top matters, the 'Sanchise' was back from injury. Which meant the Jets rushing attack that has been trying to sustain this team all year long was once again dumped on. And predictably in the cold weather Sanchez completes just 18/32 and throws 3 picks. But worse was to come for the New Yorkers, as they botched no less than three field goal attempts well within range. One muffed hold, one wide right and one botched snap that led to a block. Then to cap a great game for the Jets, on 4th and goal for the Falcons with time ticking away, they let Tony Gonzalez practically walk into the endzone and sit down for the game winnning catch. 2-3. Texans 16 @ Rams 13 -- Not a lot to say about this one except that Matt Schaub to Andre Johnson has to be one of the most fun combinations to watch in the NFL, as Johnson went 9 for 196 yards. Maybe next year Houston.... 3-3. Dolphins 24 @ Titans 27 -- Somethings been driving me nuts about Miami for ages now. They've lived a lot on the strength of the 'Wildcat' this season. But as soon as Ronnie Brown went down injured, they just tossed it aside. Even though they've already shown themselves that with Pat White in the backfield they gain another two dimensions (legitimate throwing and option football). Ah well, they only have themselves to blame. The Titans were good but on 29 carries Johnson was held to just 104 yards. Vince Young got the offense going through the air but somehow the 'Phins rallied to take it to overtime. Then threw a pick. Stupid. 3-4. Cardinals 31 @ Lions 24 -- The Cards nearly got the shock of their life against the Lions. Only some hard running by Chris 'Beanie' Wells and a tough catch and run by one of my favourite players, Anquan Boldin, got it done for Arizona. Having seen how effective his team was on the ground, former Steelers coach Ken Wisenhunt looks like he's leaning more on becoming a power football team. I think the Cards chances in the playoffs just went up a notch. 4-4. Raiders 20 @ Broncos 19 -- Prior to having the chance of watching highlights for this game, I read repeated accounts of how great the Raiders were and how they pounded the Broncos into submission in this one. Then I watched the film. The Raiders scraped a win in the last 30 seconds or so. That is not what I call dominating or pounding anyone into submission. That's what I call slipping through the gap in the final seconds. 4-5. Bengals 24 @ Chargers 27 -- There are two things you can't really do against the Chargers. One is make costly mental errors that the Chargers will happily exploit. Two is to keep feeding the ball back to the Chargers and Phillip Rivers. Unfortunately for an emotional Bengals, they did both. Whether it was the pressure of the game or the loss of Chris Henry, the Bengals did not look alert at times and these lapses ultimately cost them. In addition, after weeks of successfully driving the ball hard on the ground, the Bengals picked an inopportune moment to ignore their rushing attack. In a game that was decided by a last minute Chargers drive, some burning of the clock might just have come in handy. 5-5. Bears 7 @ Ravens 31 -- Sometimes there are bigger things going on when a QB throws a lot of interceptions. God only knows what's happening with Jay Cutler. 3 more interceptions this weekend now takes his season tally to 25. That's five more than rookies Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez, and 7 more than even the pick master Jake Delhomme (though granted with more starts). The Bears only touchdown came on a special teams return and their defense just looked shocking. Even 'Air Flacco' was able to muster 4 TDs against them and that's probably the most damning indictment you can have. 6-5. Buccaneers 24 @ Seahawks 7 -- Maybe I should just toss a coin to decide my picks more often. The Buccaneers didn't just win, they stormed the Seahawks. And amazingly, Seattle could learn a thing or two from Tampa. Such as how to defend against the passing game. And understanding that good QBs are best used with a supplementary run game. Derrick Ward and Cadillac Williams hardly set the world alight, but they made solid games that helped keep the offense on track and kept it from becoming predictable. The Seahawks largely discarded a run game that has done them good service lately and instead went airborne 46 times, generating 4 interceptions in the process. Poor. 7-5. 49ers 13 @ Eagles 27 -- Let me just point something out for the sake of those who aren't aware. When the Eagles have more rushing attempts than you, not even yards, just rushing attempts, then I'm afraid you have serious problems my friends. So guess who has serious problems? Yep, my poor 49ers. Poor them and poor play. On a happier note, credit to the biggest playmakers of the day; the Eagles ground staff. Somehow they managed to find the pitch under all of that snow and get the game on. Well done. 8-5. Packers 36 @ Steelers 37 -- Did someone order a shootout? Big time game through the air and the NFL executives have probably all wet themselves just a little at the thought of this (I notice this is the game that has been chosen for NFL Replay on Tuesday and not the higher scoring and just as dramatic Browns @ Chiefs). Ultimately it was a missed field goal in the first half that came back to bite the Packers, along with a string of penalties in the fourth quarter alone. Who says a good kicker isn't worth the investment. There are a few teams in the league right now whose playoff aspirations have been variously hindered by just a few simple missed field goals. 8-6. Vikings 7 @ Panthers 26 -- After checking in on my total pick tally for the day I realised things had not gone well. I was boosted by the thought of the Vikings visiting Carolina. With the Saints losing on Saturday to fellow conference team the Cowboys, the door had been kicked open ready for the Vikings to make a charge on the number 1 seed in the NFC. I expected them to walk right into the Bank of America stadium and then walk out again with another win. Instead they strolled in and just barely crawled out, taking a big L with them. But the biggest surprise I've had is watching, listening to and reading the reactions of, various highly respected football analysts. Because somehow, somewhere, they've all become just a little mentally unstable. Take for example Michael Lombardi of NFL.com, who proudly stated, and I quote "Quarterback Matt Moore looked like a Pro Bowler in only his third start of the season... " Are you F*%$ing kidding me? Is this for real? Moore looked awful. Between them, Steve Smith and Gary Barnidge made Moore look good. They saved him from two, possibly three potential picks and chalked up most of Moores passing tally after the catch. The real heroes of the day were Jonathan Stewart who stepped up after DeAngelo Williams went down injured, and the in particular the Panthers D. They truly did dominate someone, namely Favre. Favre went 17/27 for 224 yards, but that doesn't tell the whole story. His biggest gain of the day was a short pass to Adrian Peterson who then turned up field and notched 63 yards. But that wasn't until the 4th quarter and was followed by Favres only pick of the game on the next play. That's how bad a beatdown the Panthers layed on the Vikings. And as for Peterson in the ground game? 12 carries for 35 yards and a TD. Only 3 of those carries came in the second half. It's the classic "Who cares that we have a great RB, we just want to air it out" mentality coming back again. Unfortunately for the Vikings fans, Favre-aggeddon may just blow up in their face this year. 8-7. Giants 45 @ Redskins 12 -- Signs that your team is in trouble #45: your QB gets more yards on two scrambles than any of your proper RBs. So yeah, the Redskins are in trouble. The Giants meanwhile found a nice balance to their offense which the normally quite stout Redskins couldn't cope with. This is a big win for the Giants. 8-8. I don't believe it, what a shocking week pick wise. 8-8 is by far my worst showing so far and it takes my overall tally since Week 7 to 86-49. Big time blow this week. Next week will need a big lift to recover some picking pride. But before I rush off anywhere, I just want to bring one truly dumb decision to light (and for a change, it's not mine). The Dallas Cowboys have had enough of Nick Folk and have released him. That's understandable. But who do you bring in to replace him? Maybe Jason Elam, he's out there on the free market isn't he? Hasn't he got 2 Superbowl rings? Isn't he tied in 1st place with Tom Dempsey for the longest field goal kick in NFL history? Doesn't he have a career 81% rating at kicking field goals? Yeah he does!!! So who do the Cowboys take? Shaun Suisham. WTF? The same Shaun Suisham who missed a 23-yard chip kick field goal for the Redskins against the Saints, a field goal that would have won them the game and ended the Saints undefeated streak even faster? Yeah, the same Shaun Suisham. Nice work Dallas, slick move. Slick move. No Superbowl dreams for you this season then.

Saturday Night round up

Saturday nights game is done so let's have a round up: Cowboys 24 @ Saints 17 -- You couldn't script it any better. The team that cant win in December, wins in December, against a team that so far this season hasn't been beaten. Well, so much for the undefeated season. And with it goes my pick for the game. But I don't care. I am now looking forward to a week of listening to people coming up with excuses as to why the Saints lost. No doubt the same people who have conveniently overlooked all the little things, the lucky breaks and bad calls, that have helped the Saints to go undefeated in the first place. It's poetic justice at its finest. But excuses aside, there are some very legitimate reasons why the Saints lost. A huge part of the Saints offense relies on play action passes to generate space behind the secondary for all those deep balls. Looking at it, the Cowboys just didn't bite as hard as most teams do. They stayed with the receivers and were rewarded with just 2 minutes left in the first half when Drew Brees under threw a pass to Devery Henderson and Mike Jenkins came up with the pick. Then we have the respective run games. If we exclude QB scrambles, then the Saints tallied just 11 run plays compared to the Cowboys 32. Even though 'Americas Team' notched just 145 net yards on the ground, the key thing is they burnt the clock and kept the explosive Saints offense off the field. That's how you beat the Saints. Though there is one last element needed.... DeMarcus Ware. One of the reasons I took the Saints was because Ware was listed as Questionable. That usually means 'if he plays, he'll be rubbish'. Ware however looked on fine form and bagged himself 2 sacks, both causing fumbles, using his patented 'push and then duck under' rushing technique. OLB Anthony Spencer also helped the cause coming up with 2 sacks of his own. That's 4 in one game, compared to the Saints previous grand total of 15 in all of their previous 13 games. And what a surprise. Who would have thought that sacking the QB of a pass heavy team would help you beat them. But it nearly went off the rails for Dallas.... 2:14 left in the 4th quarter, Dallas leads by 7. They get down close to the Saints end. Then get stopped. There's nothing more they can do. It's a 24 yard chip shot field goal and then hope that the 10 point lead holds up. Onto the field walks much maligned kicker Nick Folk. The snap is good.... ball down.... kick is up and on the way and it is..... NO GOOD!! OFF THE INSIDE OF THE UPRIGHT!!! At this point Cowboys fans probably couldn't believe what they'd just seen, Wade Phillips was probably calling the GM to arrange for someones pink slip to be waiting for them in the dressing room, and Saints fans were sitting in the stands going "That happens all the time for us, how else do you think we're still 13-0?" Luckily for the Cowboys DeMarcus Ware got his second sack and forced fumble of the night on the ensuing Saints drive, allowing Jay Ratliff to dive on the ball and wrap it up for the Cowboys. But we're not quite done yet, there's still one last person left to poke some fun at. Namely Cowboys WR Roy Williams. Williams has made a regular point of telling the media he's Mr #1 in Dallas. The reality is he's a close third or fourth. Austin is #1. Romo is #2. That's that. Austin caught 7 balls for 139 yards and a TD. Witten caught 5 for another 44 yards. Williams caught 1 for 14 yards and dropped a clanger on a potential 3rd conversion. When you look at the Cowboys as a whole, I'd favour Patrick Crayton over Williams 10 times out of 10. So that's that done and that's me 1-1 for this week, though I can't help but smile at tonight's result. It's gonna be a good week I think. Take care all. Miles Austin

Week 15 picks

It's Friday Night/Saturday Morning, which means it's time to give you my picks for the rest of the games in Week 15: Patriots @ Bills -- Earlier in the season, the impossible almost happened. The Bills nearly beat the Patriots. And since then, the Patriots have had an up and down season. The Bills have had a mostly down season. Now they meet again, with the Bills eager to avenge their loss and the Patriots eager to make ground in the race for the playoffs. Both teams have a lot to play for, but both have some glaring deficiencies to overcome. The Pats offense has been solid, but their leading play maker this season has been Wes Welker. This isn't supposed to happen. Welker is supposed to be the guy that runs great underneath routes and can give you yards after the catch, or in other words, a checkdown guy. He's the player you turn to when your deep threats are all covered. And the fact that Welker has seen so many passes is indicative of a lack of downfield threat. Againts the Bills 4th ranked pass defense, that trend may continue. But their real problem is the defense, which has looked very vulnerable of late. Luckily though, help is at hand. The Bills offense to be exact. One week they're going, the next they're lying flat on the their faces. The deep threat to TO has been off and on lately. Even though I don't think the Pats will have a field day, the Bills will struggle to match their opponents if they go over 20. Patriots win. Browns @ Chiefs -- This is a dream match up. A bad dream maybe. God the Chiefs season ticket holders must be kicking themselves that they paid out all that money and then ended up with this turkey on their dinner plate. Well, neither team really stands out to be honest. Based purely on the strength of their run game, I'm going with the Chiefs. Chiefs win. 49ers @ Eagles -- Oh how I would love to take my very own 49ers in this one, but alas I think last weeks fumble frenzy against the Cardinals was a little fluky. Add to that the fact the 49ers offense still struggles to generate anything approaching decent yardage and I think we're all set for another Eagles victory. Eagles win. Texans @ Rams -- The Texans have been explosive offensively this season, just like last year. Compare their high flying, potentially fast scoring offense with the Rams pitiful D and abhorrent pass defense and we have ourselves a victor. Texans win. Dolphins @ Titans -- There is really only one battle that matters. Chris Johnson versus the Dolphins rush defense. I think Johnson edges that battle. But even if he does, Kerry Collins is likely back in the lineup and the threat of Vince Young will be gone. Collins loves throwing interceptions and the Titans staff love giving him opportunities to do so. On top of that, Miami is chomping at the bit to get a piece of the playoff action this year. Dolphins win. Falcons @ Jets -- I like Chris Redman and what he's done for the Falcons. But I like the Jets better rushing attack and standout corner Darrelle Revis to pull them through. Providing the 'Sanchise' doesn't literally throw all their good work away. Jets win. Cardinals @ Lions -- Cardinals win. Raiders @ Broncos -- The Raiders are so confident with the play of QB JaMarcus Russell that on Sunday he will play second fiddle to Charlie Frye. Yeah, so that says it all. Broncos win. Bengals @ Chargers -- After the loss of team mate Chris Henry this week, it's going to be an emotional time for the Bengals. It could go one of two ways. Either they will be steely determined to play their hearts out in honour of his memory, or the reality of what has happened will sink home in a major way. Unfortunately it doesn't help when you have the San Diego Chargers on the opposite side of the field. The Chargers have got their downfield pass game into it's groove and LT is punching home TDs like it was easy. Chargers win. Bears @ Ravens -- On the face of it, these two teams look like equals. In reality, the Ravens are a class above. Their receivers actually run proper routes, their rushing attack is brutal and efficient and their D is steady if not electric this year. The Bears are the polar opposite. Ravens win. Packers @ Steelers -- The Steelers are in a rut. Big time. They just look woeful right now on all sides of the ball. Enter the Packers, who have fixed their early blips and blemishes, and look ready to make a run in the playoffs. This is a mis-match. Big time. Packers win. Buccaneers @ Seahawks -- Honestly, I hate both teams in this. It's that simple. And so in the time honoured fashion of when men wished to settle various disputes, I shall flip a coin. Buc's are heads, Seahawks are tails......... Heads it is. Buccaneers win. Vikings @ Panthers -- Question; which Panthers team will show up? Answer; nobody knows. They might run the ball until DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart have no legs left. Or they might just hurl the ball around trying to re create their favourite Madden plays. Either way, they still won't win. The Vikings are beasts right now. Beasts on offense, beasts on defense. The Panthers are more like worried little pussy cats. Vikings win. Giants @ Redskins -- The Redskins have been surprisingly good of late. The Giants have been surprisingly bad. More to the point, the Redskins have been finding ways to move the ball deep downfield while the Giants have been finding ways to give up huge touchdown plays. This is a bit of an out on a limb type pick, but I'm taking the Redskins to play upset special. Redskins win. So there we have it. I'll be back tomorrow (today?) to round up the Cowboys @ Saints. Until then, have a nice day.

Thursday Night Football round up

Before I even get started with this post, I'd just like to say how sorry I was to hear about the passing of Chris Henry. Henry had his troubles along the line, but by all accounts he had made an extra effort this year to get his life and his playing career on track. Team mates have spoken about his dedication in the off season and his strong ongoing work ethic. The results were evident on the field as Henry looked to work his way back into the Bengals first team. My thoughts and prayers go out to the family, friends and team mates of Chris Henry. May he rest in peace. And now we come to this weeks Thursday Night Football round up: Colts 35 @ Jaguars 31 -- Questions will be asked of Jaguars Free Safety Reggie Nelson. His coaches and team mates will want to know why he meekly threw himself against the side of Dallas Clark, allowing Clark to stay upright and run home a 27 yard TD pass in the 3rd quarter. Then everyone will want to know what happened on the 65 yard TD pass from Peyton Manning to Reggie Wayne in the 4th quarter. They'll all want to know why Nelson failed to simply dive and wrap up Wayne well short of the goal line instead of just running up behind him, leaning forward, and then seeming to pat him on the backside before falling over. After his coaches have finished playing tape of him in front of the whole team to make a point about tackling, the FBI will probably want to have a word with Nelson as well, something to do with suspicious betting patterns on a Colts win. Of course that's a slight embellishment (I hope) but honestly, if you haven't seen it yet, then after you've finished here head over to NFL.com and watch the game highlights. For all my talk about running the ball, teams choices of offense etc, etc, I'm a defensive guy at heart. I love watching defenders fly across the field in an attempt to create a kind of human Crash Derby. But that mindset has it's downsides. 1) I go nuts when I see blown coverages. 2) I tear out what little hair I have left from my head when I see appalling tackling. It just astounds me how bad some of the tackling in pro football is. Nelson practically put on a one man "how not to" show tonight. Just shockingly bad. And that, amazingly enough, was pretty much the difference. Manning had another 300 yard/4 TD game, tearing Jacksonville to pieces. David Garrard tried to fight back but completed just 23/40, for 233 yards and 3 TDs. Both QB's threw one pick. Jones-Drew had 27 carries and notched 110 yards plus a rushing TD to go with his receiving TD from earlier in the game. And my little dynamo Rashad Jennings got over double his normal allocation of rushing attempts, a whole 5 this time around, for 23 yards. Now don't get me wrong, I like David Garrard, but he's not a game winning QB in the way that many others are. He's a handy tool, a guy who can keep drives alive. But he's not the bread and butter of the Jaguars and I do wish they'd stop treating him as such. It was also nice to see Chad Simpson get a 93 yard TD return which should hopefully shine some more light on a young player who I think has a big future. But that's enough ranting for now. Saturday night marks the first Saturday game of the season as the Saints welcome the Cowboys, so here's my pick for that one: Cowboys @ Saints -- It's December and that means only one thing as far as the Cowboys are concerned. And that my friends is a big, fat L. The Saints are going for the 16-0 and rightly so. While the Cowboys have the tools to make life difficult for the Saints, I just can't see it happening. They're likely to be without LB DeMarcus Ware for this one and they need all the help they can get to stop the Saints offense. Jay Ratliff might have a good game bringing pressure up the middle and forcing Drew Brees to hold the ball and move around, but don't count on the Cowboys to come up with many big defensive plays. On the opposite side of the turf, the Saints will possibly see the return of CB Tracey Porter and if that happens it will provide a huge boost to their recently lagging secondary. I still don't rate the Saints as the best team in the league, but I do rate them as better than the Cowboys. Much better. Saints win. So that's me done for the day, I'm off to go and play in the snow (who says a 25 year old can't enjoy building a snowman?) but I'll be back again tomorrow to bring you my picks for the rest of week 15. Until then, take care of yourselves.

Thursday Night Football

Tomorrow is Thursday, tonight is Wednesday. Having cleared that up, it's time for my Thursday Night Football pick: Colts @ Jaguars -- If I hear the phrase "Path to Perfection" many more times, it's gonna drive me nuts. I almost want both the Colts and the Saints to lose purely so I don't have to hear that anymore. But unfortunately, at least for the Colts, it's going to be another week of speculation. 'cos even though I like the Jags, and even though I like Maurice Jones-Drew, there are a few things that drive me to pick the Colts. Number one, is that I know deep down the Jaguars will try and shoot it out with the Colts. They'll throw maybe 35-40 times and they'll drag themselves into an offensive battle they can't win. They wont use their ground game to full effect. Jones-Drew will get maybe 15-20 carries, Rashad Jennings will get his obligatory 2 carries for 10 yards and the Colts D will show David Garrard the turf a few times. Even though they're a little banged up defensively, the Colts still get it done. They play sound, assignment football, giving you a few yards here and there, till finally you get frustrated and try and force something that isn't there and then they've got you. Offensively, Manning will do his thing, adjusting the protection to keep the leagues worst pass rush at bay while he scans the field and finds holes in the secondary that will eventually show up when you can't bring any pressure. It has Colts win written all over it. Unless they take their foot off the gas, I can't see them dropping the ball now. Colts win. So that takes care of Thursday. Tomorrow it'll be round up time, along with a Saturday night pick for the Cowboys at Saints. Until then, have a nice day.