It might work. Might.

Right, there's been some moving and shaking in Free Agency today, not a lot, but let's see what's been happening: -- LaDanian Tomlinson spent the day visiting the Jets and has apparently extended that visit overnight, which could suggest that a deal is being drawn up. The Jets need another RB in some form to back up Shonne Greene as Leon Washington is still recovering from a broken leg suffered last year and it's not sure when he'll return. Now this move doesn't make sense to me. I appreciate that Thomas Jones was going to be due a sizable roster bonus, but is LaDanian Tomlinson really going to come in much cheaper? They will save a few million, but the question is will Tomlinson make up for that saving with yards? He's still got a lot to give and behind that O-line he may even come back with a 1,000 yard season, but that's a big may for a team that runs the ball as much as the Jets. -- Hank Baskett spent last season with the Colts and now he's headed back to the Eagles, having accumulated the grand total of 4 catches for 28 yards in Indy. -- Veteran CB Roderick Hood has finally agreed a deal to return him to the Titans for next season. The Titans suffered early last year when much of their starting secondary went down injured before the first game. -- The Browns have finally made a move worth shouting about. A few years ago they made a run for the playoffs based largely on the play of WR Braylon Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow II. Well they lost both players, but now they're headed back in the right direction with the signing of TE Ben Watson from New England. It's a start for the Browns, but they still have a long way to go. -- San Diego have made a move to replace Antonio Cromartie at CB, who signed with the Jets, by signing former Jets CB Donald Strickland. And so the merry go round continues.... -- Larry Johnson has found a home for next season, backing up Redskins RB Clinton Portis. Not a bad move if you ask me. The biggest problem the 'Skins had last season on offense was trying to get their running game going, with Portis looking laboured at times. Maybe the introduction of Johnson will finally give them a chance to get some push on the ground. But again, that's a big maybe. -- Green Bay have finally locked up NT Ryan Pickett with a new deal. Pickett was a key component in the center of the Packers new 3-4 defense last season. Well, that's pretty much that. Thanks for dropping by and I'll see you all tomorrow. Have a great day.

Restrain yourselves!!

So, what's been happening in Free Agency today? Let's have a look: -- Erm, nothing, zero, zilch. Oh dear. In that case, now is as good a time as any to investigate a mystery that's probably been bugging some of you for the last few days.... while others, probably don't care. What does Belichicks decision to go for it on 4th and 2 against the Colts have to do with Temporary Restraining Orders? Well, I'll tell you. If you don't own a copy, go out and buy Gavin De Beckers book "The Gift of Fear". Buy a copy for your wife or girlfriend as well. Buy a copy for any brothers and sisters you have. Buy a copy for any sons and daughters you have (I mean it). If you have enough spare change, buy this book for everybody you can and tell the rest that it's a must read. I don't want to dwell too much on the book, but to give you a brief summary, De Becker is an expert in security and details in this book many of the main topics he's encountered through his career, sharing his insight as to how his company deals with various situations and persons, from stalkers to violent children to lovers that won't let go, and even mentions assassins. Becker demonstrates the difference between fear and worry and covers so many other interesting topics. A must read. And thus we come to the bizarre correlation between the Head Coach of the New England Patriots, Game Theory, and a court order used to ward off the unwanted attention of a fan/girlfriend/boyfriend/husband/wife etc. So to start what is rapidly becoming a muddle in my mind, basically a temporary restraining order is a court order used to restrict the access of one individual to another, usually setting limits on distance, time, places etc. And as we find out in De Beckers book, they generally do one of two things: 1) Serve the purpose for which they were intended, admirably. 2) Make a bad situation much worse. The key factor is to look at the history of the person being placed under the order. Normally harmless, law abiding individuals will tend to get the message and cease their previously relentless pursuit. Those with a past history of violence and threats to use violence will likely be pushed over the edge by the order, now feeling that the target of their unwanted attention and pursuit has won a victory over them and that they have no other options left on the table. Still with me? Ok, so why is this important? Because it affects the ways we look at statistics. We can call up some arbitrary number (being that I lack the actual numbers in front of me) and say that every year there are (X) amount of restraining orders issued and that in (Y) number of cases, the restraining order makes the situation worse and ends with the death of the victim of the pursuit. From this, you could quite easily say that, therefore, if you take out a restraining order against someone, the percentage chance that they will end up trying to kill you is (Z) or something like 1 in ABC chance of it happening. But the reality is that we know with quite a high degree of accuracy and consistency who will become violent and who wont. We can look at past form and analyse any number of variables to give a person a good idea of whether the case will be successful or not. Generalised percentages are of no use here. And now we come to the Belichick part. After his now much maligned decision we were informed repeatedly that the percentages were in his favour. I heard everything ranging from 65% (the most consistent number) all the way up to 80% (god knows how someone came to that conclusion). People went statistics crazy, trying to transpose all kinds of numbers onto the situation. The only one percentage I didn't actually hear was 50%, which was the actual Patriots record on fourth downs that season prior to that attempt. All of this is a prime example of trying to impose arbitrary numbers and percentages onto a situation that has many variables to it. In the same way that we can look at whether a restraining order is a good idea and assess all the variables involved without having to lump everybodies case into some fictitious percentage, we can also look at thing like fourth downs and make decisions without having to rely on calculators. We can look at the Patriots previous track record on fourth downs that season (many people were looking at the Patriots under Belichick, The Patriots with Brady etc, anything except the Patriots that season with that personnel), we can look at the Colts ability to stop on 4th down, we can look at how well the Patriots special teams had performed against the Colts special teams and we can look at the Patriots defense versus the Colts offense (many people glossed over the fact that the Colts last drive ended with a score only after a huge chunk of yards were gained on a highly dubious pass interference call and that on the drive prior to that, King Manning threw a pick). I think too readily now, coaches seem to be turning to percentages and people with degrees in applied Mathematics to make decisions for them, instead of trusting their gut instincts and looking at the facts that actually present themselves. Would the Maths people who were so confident in Brady still be as confident if they were facing the Steelers, who had a near 80% success rate at stopping offenses on 4th down (to that point in the season)? Or would we still be lead to believe that Brady was 65% all the way? You cant safely dish out a Temporary Restraining Order without first looking at and understanding the facts of the individual case and neither, I propose, can you go for it on 4th down without first looking at and understanding the facts of the game in hand. Hopefully that's all clear now. If not, feel free to let me know in the comments section below. But for now, thanks for your time and at some point over the weekend I'd like to convince you that those high ticket prices you pay to see games and the expensive beer you're forced to buy at the game is all for your own good. Have a nice day.

"If I was the 49ers Head Honcho...."

-- Antonio Bryant, who I've been harping on about for days now, has finally found a home in Cincinnati. It's a good fit for the Bengals, who desperately needed someone who defenses would have to scheme for to take some of the coverage away from Chad Ochocinco. But the deal is what concerns me. I like Bryant. He makes tough catches, has great hands and is good after the catch. But a 4 year deal worth $28 million dollars? That's $7 million per year. I'm not sure if I want to chew that much cap for a number 2 guy. -- Kevin Faulk will return once again to the New England Patriots. Brady must be sighing in relief knowing he's getting back one of the better hard runners and catchers to line up in the Patriots backfield in recent years. -- Jake Delhomme could find his stay in Free agency short as he's expected to meet with the Browns today (Thursday). -- Derrick Mason, the 9,000 year old WR will be coming back to Baltimore for another year at least. The Ravens receiving corps now looks much healthier than it did in the playoffs, with the addition of Anquan Boldin and Dante Stallworth to supplement Masons, errr, experience. -- Terrell Owens was very gracious in a tweet he left regarding the Bengals signing of Antonio Bryant. Further proof, along with his maturity in Buffalo last year, that Owens has made a concerted effort to solve some of the question marks people had over his character. On a more bizarre note, a friend of mine asked me this question: "if you were the 49ers Head Coach (& presumably GM), who would you take in free agency and the draft?" Well, sounds like a challenge to me..... So we're assuming that I'm the Head Coach and GM of the 49ers ('cos I'm a 49ers fan). Probably going to take control of the offense in this capacity and install something very similar to the Bill Walsh style offense. So first off, I'd be happy to stick with Alex Smith, who did a great job last season, and by all accounts young Nate Davis was impressive, so we'll keep him too, but I'm afraid Shaun Hill is for the chop, because we can't be having a QB controversy. In his place comes Jeff Garcia. I still rate Jeff, who's spent almost his entire professional career working in a similar offense. He knows the calls, understands the kind of plays and style that we'd be using and can help the entire offense learn the scheme quicker. I'm also pleased to have FB Britt Miller on board. Miller used to be a LB in college and converted for the Niners. He showed promise last preseason in running routes out of the backfield, a big part of this offense. So the clock ticks down to the start of Free agency and I grab myself a nice cup of coffee and sit by the phone waiting for the clock to strike midnight. As soon as it does..... I'm off home, because it means I've probably been at the office too long. On Sunday Night I come back to the phone at about 11:00-11:30pm, a fresh coffee in hand and still laughing my butt off at how much money the Bears paid Peppers. No I start dialing agents. But whose? Well, I fancy a number 2 wideout to go with Crabtree so Antonio Bryant is on the list. I could do with a backup to Frank Gore, someone who might be cheap and preferably is a good catcher, so Brian Westbrook is next. I need someone to bolster the pass rush so I give Joey Porter a ring. I need a corner to replace Dre Bly so I'm also going to bring in Leigh Bodden and finally to seal up the back end, I call Darren Sharper. Yes, Sharper. See, I know I was moaning the other day about Sharper, but that's purely because people are drooling over him like he's gods gift to defense. Meanwhile, I take a more objective view of the guy. I like his leadership skills, I think he can make a few plays (though I don't expect 9 picks out of him again) and his return skills with the ball in his hands make him an attractive prospect for occasional punt/kick return duties. I'm also going to give Ladell Betts a call. He's from a similar system and can catch. I might give Todd Yoder a call and see how he feels about backing up Vernon Davis. Again, he would be reasonably familiar with the system. I might offer a small deal to Artis Hicks, formerly a Viking (technically still), as again he roughly knows the system, and let's face it, we need O-linemen. Kevin Mawae gets a shout for a veteran minimum deal, probably would start and would bring vital experience and confidence to our line. I'd also test the water on Chester Pitts. Coming from Houston, again he might have a passing knowledge of our offense. Providing the price is right (and by that I mean, very low) I'd see what Jarvis Green of the Patriots was up to, maybe come in and give our D-line a bit of stability. With our suspicious D still needing a look, I'd see what Keith Bullucks price was, and also feel out a vet minimum deal to Bertrand Berry of the Cardinals, who if nothing else will give us a look at the Cards D (and I think he could give more). I also might give Tyrone Carter a call, again looking for a cheap deal as a backup. So that's my free agent list dealt with. I wouldn't be expecting to pay out huge deals to any of them (even in an uncapped year, you still have to consider the future), so some would probably fall though the net, but I'm not breaking the bank for any of this free agent class and to be honest, there's no one else out there that catches my eye, not for the type of system I was planning. Maybe if Willie Parker was willing to sign on a minimum deal and sit as a backup then that's maybe one more. So now we move to the draft. Oh boy. So we have two first round picks here at 13 and 17. I already know who I want at 17 and I know he'll be there. The question is 13. As you'd expect any self respecting offensive minded coach to do, I'm going to go offense here, and I badly need linemen. Probably looking at any one of: Russell Okung, Bryan Bulaga, Anthony Davis or Trent Williams, depending on who falls to you. So that's number 13 done, but who is this certain pick at 17? Mike Iupati. I know, I know, every draft board going has him rated as a late first, maybe early second round pick, but again, this is where that whole system thing comes in. I'm looking at Iupati and thinking that this guy blocks like a demon, so could help anchor either end of my line, and a lot of plays in the Walsh style system require double reads by the guard in pass protection, and I think Iupati has the agility to make that a reality. He makes my team so much better, he's worth going at number 17. After that? Mainly the picks will be defense minded. I could use another corner, another safety and another LB. Maybe feel out the market for defensive linemen. With Aubrayo Franklin coming back I don't need a NT really, but I could still use some youthful depth. Corner would probably be my priority in that second round, but we don't pick till 49 so it depends as I want to get some value out of it. The trouble with this stage is that even by number 49 you're not sure whose on the list and who isn't. Add to that the fact that most teams picking ahead of us could also do with a corner or safety in the second round, and it means our personnel people had better be red hot...... We'll that's me done for another day. Still intrigued as to what possible connection there could be between Temporary Restraining Orders and Belichicks' fateful 4th and 2 decision? I promise, Friday Night, all will be revealed. Maybe Saturday Morning. Until then, have a great day.

A bit drafty

So first off today we'll dip into the latest free agency moves, then it's time to talk draft boards!! -- Jim Sorgi, previously of the Colts, has now found a new home in New York. God help them. -- Derek Anderson has been released by the Browns and subsequently lashed out at fans in the Cleveland area, noting the fact that they cheered once when he had to be taken off injured. Even for football fans, that's pretty cruel. And Anderson wants his revenge, saying he'd like to sign with a team that will pass through Cleveland soon (if he stays with his next team he'll have to wait four years maximum) and that it would be satisfying to roll over the Browns. Sounds like someone is fired and ready for a return! Anderson really isn't that bad. The Browns last season were. He's not great, but he's better than Sorgi or Carr. Anderson was replaced by Seattle backup Seneca Wallace. -- DE Jarvis Green has been picked up by the Broncos in an effort to bolster their pass rush. By all accounts, Bill Belichick was hoping to get Green back, so it looks like the Patriots will have to dip into the draft somewhere to help their pass rush. -- RB Thomas Jones has gone to Kansas, and it's not to meet Dorothy. Instead he'll be meeting Jamaal Charles, who impressed last year when he stepped in to the full time role of running back after the departure of Larry Johnson. It remains to be seen how offensive co-ordinator Charlie Weis will handle this group, as his boss and former Arizona Cardinals offensive co-ordinator Todd Haley is more of a pass friendly person. Whichever way they go, Jones is a tough runner and will bring a lot of value to the Chiefs organisation. -- As for possible moves yet to come, the Bengals have finished interviewing Antonio Bryant and now turn to Terrell Owens, who will meet with the Bengals today. Current Bengals WR Chad Ochocinco has supposedly put pictures on his Twitter account featuring him and Owens, which comes on top of his very verbal recommendations for Owens to join the Bengals. Bryant is due to meet with the Redskins later this week. Meanwhile the Cardinals are apparently showing murmurs of interest in signing Derek Anderson, who as I mentioned earlier has been released from the Browns. If Anderson was signed he would likely duel it out in training camp with current Cardinals number one QB (by default) Matt Leinart. And last but not least, LaDanian Tomlinson appears to have caught the eye of the Vikings according to the Star Tribune. LT and AP? OMG! Right, the starter is done, now to the main course. Best Player available or Draft for needs? Lets have a look. Best Player Available: So the theory goes that you make a draft board ranking all the players in the draft from 1 to 256. When your pick comes up and you're on the clock it's simple; you look at your board and take the best player left on it. Honestly, I hate this method. Imagine if the Eagles ranked all the draft prospects in terms of pure ability and when they got to their first pick, they saw the name Tim Tebow or Dan LeFevour at the top. Are they really going to take ANOTHER QB? Doubt it. And there are added problems with this approach as well. If you're the Dallas Cowboys then right now you're pretty much solid on offense. I really can't think of a need you have. Defensively you're still very good, but you need a few pieces to become genuine Superbowl contenders. So what happens if the top 5 or so names on your list are all offensive guys? Do you really need another receiver? Another RB? Of course, things change completely when you look at the Lions and the Rams. Where are their needs? Uhm... everywhere! (see coach, I told you the Lions were in for a ripping). You name it and these teams need it, except maybe the Lions can pass on a top QB and the Rams can pass on a top RB. But other than that, they really have little other choice but to just keep grabbing whoever is at the top of their board. I think this is where BPA comes into it's own, as well as with teams that are at the opposite end of the scale and have everything covered (which this year, is no-one). I just think that BPA has a tendency to ignore your glaring weaknesses. For example, let's look at my very own 49ers. Last year we picked 10th and took Michael Crabtree who feel to us by extraordinary luck. But as great as Crabtree is, and he will be great, it means we left another Michael, Michael Oher, hanging on the board and who eventually went to the Ravens at 23 (which was a steal really). I'm not saying that Crabtree wont help us, but oh boy could we do with a new OT. Our O-line is bad and without a good line, it hampers the production of both your passing and rushing attack. Crabtree is an improvement, but Oher could have been a difference maker. Drafting for needs: So basically here we're looking for the biggest hole in our team and then we're going to plug it. Whatever comes up bad, we need a good player to fill it. We'll happily skip over a better overall player in terms of end production in order to get a player that will fill a gaping space in our roster, possibly even hitting that same position again later in the draft. This is all about building a team. If you've never read "The Blueprint: How the New England Patriots Beat the System to Create the Last Great NFL Superpower" by Christopher Price, then don't, because it's really just a history lesson on the Patriots by a Patriots fan. The information in this book about the Patriots strategy could probably be gleaned just from reading their wikipedia page. In fact, the whole book could probably be replaced with their Wikipedia page. But there was one thing about it that caught my eye, a quote apparently attributed to Head Coach Bill Belichick that "it's not about collecting talent, it's about building a team". It might have been the other way around, but you get the point. And that's what drafting for needs is about. It's about building a group of players who will collectively win a Superbowl. Can you imagine if the Cardinals pick comes up and they go for a WR? Steve Breaston and Early Doucet may not be the greatest in the league but they're enough to back up Larry Fitzgerald. I have to admit it's tempting, when you look at some of the players out there in free agency and in the draft, it's tempting to go out and build an all Pro-Bowl caliber lineup at one position, but it just isn't good business for a team. You've got to understand you can't bust all your cap at one position. You've got to think about that big picture. That's where picking for needs comes in. Even if you see a tempting target on the board, if you don't need it, don't take it. Look at the Seahawks last year in the draft. Picking number 4 they could have taken Sanchez and started to build for the future, but instead they went for LB Aaron Curry and filled a much more pressing need. Building a team not just a collection for good players. As I mentioned earlier I think the Cowboys have things wrapped up offensively now, so they have a great chance to go out and draft defense heavy and make a real splash in the franchises future, instead of just accumulating more talent on an otherwise already impressive offense. All that said, there are two things as well I think you need to keep in mind: -- Depth. Of the draft, specifically. Basically what we're talking about here is the same situation we had last year concerning RB. There are a ton of great backs to be had in the draft, and really, if you wait till the late second round or early to mid third round, then you can still find a great back. This is something that's always tricky to judge and affects the BPA type teams more than the drafting for needs teams. If you have a great all round team and just need a back to finish the process off, then why not go early. But if you're looking for the BPA and it's running back, then you're probably better off just holding on until the second round. -- The glove that fits. This is more of a case of player evaluation than the actual argument between BPA and needs. So many times I think teams just grab a player without considering where that guy is going to slot into your offense. The perfect example is Suh and McCoy. Personally I think Suh would better fit a 3-4 team while McCoy will better fit a 4-3. The difference is marginal admittedly, but it's worth considering. If you are a power running team, I don't think C.J. Spiller is really your guy. This is something Bill Walsh apparently excelled at, finding guys that fit what he wanted to do. So that's that for another day. Later in the week, maybe Thursday or Friday, I'm gonna try to convince you that there's a connection between Belichicks' infamous 4th down decision and Temporary Restraining Orders, and then hopefully over the weekend or maybe Monday, I'm gonna go one better and try to convince you that high ticket prices and high beer prices are good for Football fans. In addition of course I'll be checking out all the free agency news each day and giving my thoughts. Thanks for reading and have yourself a good day.

Just. "Woeful".

So as I took my daily wander around the web, I came to NFL.com and found their video section packed with clips of various players at the combine. And it never hurts to watch a bit more tape: -- Before we even get onto any players I want to mention the catching drill at the combine for the RBs. Basically they place two cones about 10 yards apart and have the backs start at one, run across to the other and catch a pass in the process (including tucking it away), then ditch the ball, turn and catch another going back, tuck it, ditch it, then catch a thrid ball and turn upfield and make a sprint for the finish. This drill, with maybe a few more catching reps, would be much better for the Receivers than that artifical piece of junk they do now where they're basically encouraged to catch balls and dump them straight away. -- And talking of the receivers, out of all the tape I watched, I saw two guys... two... among all those receivers who actually watched the ball into their hands properly. That's pretty bad. -- There was also something surprising which I never picked up the first time and that's the amount of guys who, on the vertical jump, were rocking back on their heels and then starting their motion from there. What they ended up doing was using a lot of energy and momentum built up with their arms to simply push their toes into the ground. Needless to say, those that didn't posted disappointing vertical leaps. -- Finally onto some players. There'll be a lot of RB on this list because I catch much of their workouts during the Combine, so this is the first time I've had a chance to see some of them. And we start with Stafon Johnson, who displayed some great footwork, excellent cutting ability; was really quick on the turns and put a lot of effort into the drills, finishing all of the hard. -- RB Joique Bell next. Did nothing of real note during the drills but I had to mention him for no other reason than his awesomely bizarre shout at the end of the 40 yard dash. It was like halfway between a 'woo' and a 'damn it'. Just odd. -- RB LeGarrette Blout. I have one word written down here and it reads "woeful". -- WR Carlton Mitchell. Impressed with the way he watched the ball into his hands, had good fundamental technique and some great breaks on his routes. -- RB Anthony Dixon. Another guy who showed great determination, some real hard running and again, excellent footwork, nice cuts. -- RB Keith Toston. I'm not sure if he realised there were scouts in the stands, but the guy looked terrible, just very sluggish and bored. -- FB Rashawn Jackson. Not the fastest and not the quickest, but for his size, he was pretty darn good. Showed some very nice cuts, better than a lot of the RB on display. Projected as a 5th rounder, would be a bargain at that level by the look of it. -- WR Kerry Meier. I have one word written down here and it also reads "woeful". -- SS Barry Church. Great feet, just a superbly smooth change of direction and attacking the ball at its highest point. -- RB Jahvid Best. Another ball watcher, concentrating on it right down into his belly. His agility and footwork was so smooth it would have made Sinatra look like John Candy. -- RB Dexter McCluster. Talk about speed and agility, this kid is probably worth man than being projected at number 5 among all RB. -- CB Dominique Franks. Truly excellent footwork, hip movement and change of direction. Has the tools to be a good pass defender. Maybe a little under rated right now. -- WR Kyle Williams. Very good route running style, good breaks and solid hands. Better workout than Golden Tate by far. And now, having looked at some of the new breed, let's turn our attention to some of the older breed, namely, free agents: -- David Carr has agreed a deal with the 49ers. God help us. We already have Smith, Hill and Nate Davis, why Carr as well? -- Philadelphia have wrapped up Jason Avant with a new contract. For me, Avant is an important piece in the Eagles puzzle, always coming up with timely catches. -- Fred Robbins, formerly of the Giants has now shifted to the Rams. Rams Head Coach Steve Spagnolo is already familiar with Robbins and with Robbins being a DT, it just nudges the suspicion meter even further across towards the Rams using pick 1 to take a QB, at this moment in time likely to be Sam Bradford. -- The Steelers have morphed into something of a passing team of late (to their detriment in my view) and so they've been shopping in free agency, picking up WR Arnaz Battle, previously of the 49ers. As well as being a capable number 3 receiver Battle also often contributes on special teams returns. He doesn't contribute much but hey, he gives it a go. They also scooped former Redskin WR Antwaan Randel El and former Bucs FS Will Allen. -- The Lions managed to get TE Will Heller re-signed as well as taking WR Brian Clark from Tampa. Didn't fancy Antonio Bryant then? -- Talking of Bryant, he's due to visit the Bengals soon as Cincinnati looks to boost it's receiving corps. Speaking of which, I'm not happy with all the negatives being thrown at Andre Caldwell. Caldwell was probably the most clutch guy on that offense last season, so Caldwell sure as hell isn't to blame for the poor performance of the Bengals passing attack. -- The Kansas City Chiefs have wrapped up receiver Chris Chambers. They brought Chambers in about halfway through last season and he had an immediate impact of a team that sorely lacked any true talent at the wide out position. -- Leigh Bodden has ended speculation about where he might end up... but agreeing another deal with the Pats. I really thought someone was going to bite on Bodden, but I guess not. Not even the Lions who had to settle for Jonathan Wade, formerly of... the Rams? Well, at least that's one step up the draft order for him. Well, in the words of Porky pig, that's all folks. For today at least. Hopefully by tomorrow there'll have been a flurry of free agent activity and with any luck, I'll get enough time to talk about the draft and whether to go for Best Player Available or Draft for Needs. Until then, have a nice day everyone.

A gripping tale

-- Not a huge amount to report at the minute. Scott Fujita, the LB from New Orleans has been scooped up by the Browns, which to be fair, was something they desperately need. The mere fact that Fujita has been to a Superbowl will likely earn the respect of many in the locker room. -- Brandon Marshall has been visiting in Seattle. Seattle could use a receiver like Marshall, but they probably just want to get a handle on his personal problems and find out straight from horses mouth what the deal is with his conduct. That's the only thing that's really standing in the way of them parting ways with their first round pick, which is number 6 overall. Given the money that top ten picks demand these days, coupled with their alarming propensity to turn out as abject failures, this would be a good move by the Seahawks. -- Something odd happened to today. I was watching some cut ups of Javen Snead, the QB coming out Ole Miss, and my eyes were drawn to his grip. After a crazed, coffee fueled session lasting a few hours that involved repeatedly shouting and bashing various inanimate objects, I had finally watched enough film to spot a weird trend. Most QB coming out of College now use a grip that involves them placing the middle finger of the throwing hand just above the laces, while leaving the ring and little fingers on the laces themselves. Meanwhile most pro QB (Including Favre, Brees, Warner and P. Manning) seem to place the middle finger a little higher, with the ring finger sitting just above the laces and the little finger on them. Two questions instantly come to mind: 1) Why are nearly all the pros using the same grip while all the College guys use a different one? 2) Why can't I watch football without noticing these things and then spending an inordinate amount of time researching them?

Can you repeat that please?

So I promised I would talk about why repeating at the Superbowl is so difficult and indeed I shall stay true to my word. But first: -- DE Aaron Kampman has been snapped up by the Jacksonville Jaguars. Damn did they need that signing. Their pass rush has been sorely lacking and maybe with the addition of Kampan they'll finally start to bring some rival offenses to heel, giving Jones-Drew and the rest of the Jags' offense a chance to make a difference. There are questions still about Kampmans cruciate ligament injury from last year, but apparently he's on track for a good recovery by the start of the season. The Jags meanwhile? They still need a lot of pieces to complete the puzzle. -- David Carr, the backup QB from the Giants, has visited San Francisco to speak with the 49ers, but ultimately came away without a deal. That doesn't mean that avenue is dead, but his next stop is likely to be Cleveland who will probably table a more interesting bid given their desperate need of a good QB. Unfortunately, I don't think Carr is quite what they're looking for. -- A.J. Feely has been snapped up by the Rams. I like Feely, he's performed solidly for the Eagles when he's been called upon to step in, but I fear he may not see much playing time in St. Louis as the Rams are now almost universally expected to take Sam Bradford with the first overall pick. -- Looking at some of the Steelers unrestricted free agents, there's some nice names on that list that I didn't spot before. Aside from Willie Parker who I've already talked about recently, you have CB Deshea Townsend who personally I think is just as good as Dunta Robinson who signed a ridiculously over inflated contract with Falcons. You have SS Tyrone Carter, who spelled for Troy Polamalu when he went down injured. Now is Carter as good as Polamalu? No, probably not. But that said he's certainly going to be a lot cheaper than Polamalu to sign. Could be a good fit in a lot of places and certainly someone like Detroit wouldn't benefit greatly. On top of that, NT Casey Hampton and DE Travis Kirschke are also the free agent list. That's two guys right there who could quietly make an impact on any D-line. But enough of this idle chatter, time for the Superbowl talk and just why is it so difficult to win back to back titles? Planned Parity This is probably one of the most obvious answers. When the Colts played the Patriots this season, all the TV commentators were talking about how the NFL seems to be making sure that each season these two teams get scheduled against one another, nefariously suggesting that there's someone in an office somewhere who deliberately schemes to make sure they end up having a game. No one that I know of stopped and simply said 'well, both teams keep winning their division, so isn't that the reason why they end up playing each other?'. Which it is. Under the current scheduling system, each team has to play the three teams from inside it's conference that finished in the same position as them within their respective divisions (easy as that). So for example in the coming season, the Saints will have to play the Cowboys, the Cardinals and the Vikings during the regular season, in addition to whatever other games they have on their schedule, as opposed to the season just passed when they played the Lions, the Redskins and the Rams (after finishing bottom of their division in 2008). Invariably a Superbowl team finishes either first or second in their division, so has a tougher run the next year. To add to the difficulties, teams that finish in the playoffs pick later in the draft. The Superbowl champions obviously get the last bite of the draft cherry in each round, so they often get left with the type of players who other teams think would be more at home in the next round. A late first round pick is essentially just an early second rounder. Teams coming for you You win the Superbowl and suddenly, everyone wants a piece of you. All throughout the playoffs and Superbowl week, everyone and his brother has been dissecting you and your team, looking for weaknesses. Then everyone spends the off season looking at you to see if there isn't something there that they can steal from you. And then when you finally do get to play again, everybody wants to test their mettle against the number 1 team. None of those things is particularly conductive to helping you win multiple games and getting back to the Superbowl. Internal motivation Probably the single biggest challenge is motivating your team. Now in an ideal world, the fact that players get paid 6 figure salaries as an annual minimum would be enough of a motivation. But sadly, that appears to not be the case. When you read accounts given by players who have previously won superbowls, this is the thing that comes up time and again. They've just won the big one and now they've proved their point. They go into every game with the tag 'World Champions' attached to them. That's a hard thing to stop yourself thinking about. The other way this manifests itself is in offseason preparation. Bill Walsh commented numerous times that the biggest problem his 49ers teams had was that after winning a Superbowl, instead of spending the next few months working out and watching tape like they might otherwise have done, they instead spent it at dinner parties held in their honor and charity golf days at which they were the star attraction. They got caught up in their success, the celebrations lasted too long, and the previous motivation of wanting to win a Superbowl was no longer there to force them to hit the gym everyday. It's a bit like climbing Mount Everest Which, let's face it, is quite the challenge. The joke is that bad teams start from the bottom of the mountain while the best teams just happen to start from a high altitude base camp. The reality is, winning a Superbowl is not an easy achievement. Like climbing Everest, not many people have been there. And herein lies the inherent problem with repeating a Superbowl win: It's so god damn difficult to win one in the first place! Think of all the things that have to come together. Your defense has to be able to stop anyone regardless of their offensive style. Your offense has to be able to score on anyone, regardless of their defensive style. And to cap it off you have to keep all your key players healthy for the majority of the season. Would the Saints have won the Superbowl without Brees? Would they even have made it to the Superbowl? Would the Colts have made it to that final game if Freeney and/or Mathis had gone down injured? What if the Steelers had lost Roethelisberger or Polamalu the year before? And then we just have blind luck. For the Saints, it came in many forms. The Dolphins throwing away their big first half lead by coming out throwing in the second. The missed 23 yard chip shit field goal by the Redskins. Favres' fateful decision to throw the ball instead of running during the NFC Championship game. So many things that all conspire to get a team to the bowl and then to win it. And with it only being a 16 game season, a few random chance results can derail a whole season. All in all, winning a Superbowl is a pain in the butt. It's a tough challenge, probably tougher than winning the top trophy in any other sport in the world. So given the nature of the beast you're dealing with, trying to pull that off two years in a row is unbelievably difficult. But every now and again teams do it, usually once a decade. So the one question that remains is simple; who will pull it off in the 20-teens..... ...... actually I've just thought of two other questions: 1) On draft day, do you take the Best Player Available or Draft for Needs? 2) What is the connection between Temporary Restraining Orders in the US and Belichicks famous decision to go for it on fourth down against the Colts? All will be revealed this week, along with as much analysis on free agency as my keyboard and computer will stand. Have a nice day.

Catching up on Free agency

So Free agency has kicked off and already things are starting to move and shake. I'm just gonna look at the moves that I know of/caught my eye. -- Julius Peppers. Yeah, had to start here didn't we. Formerly of the Panthers, now a Chicago Bear, along with RB Chester Taylor and TE Brandon Manumaleuna. I have to say, the Bears desperately needed a guy of Peppers caliber to come and bolster their pass rush, but I'm looking at the apparent contract details and just gasping. a six year deal with at least $42 million guaranteed? With incentives it could stretch to as much as $91 million. The deal will pay Peppers $20 million in just the first year. That's a hell of a spend. You'd better hope that a) Peppers works hard and b) he gives you great production right from day one, because that is the kind of contract that can hamstring a franchise. I actually like the Taylor deal more, because they badly need some support for Matt Forte. Now if they can just sort out their O-line and get Cutler to stop throwing games away.... -- Josh Cribbs, though not a free agent, has finally got a contract he's happy with, and good on him. It's hard to think of someone who has worked as hard as he has and has given as much back to his team in the last few seasons as Cribbs. Long live the Special teams specialist. -- Vince Wilfork has been secured again by the Patriots. And with their Defense the way it is, that's a badly needed signing. -- Karlos Dansby has landed in Miami, both figuratively and literally. In a 5 year deal estimated at $43 million dollars with maybe $22 million guaranteed, Dansby brings some quality to a Miami D that badly needed it. Is he worth quite that much? I'm not convinced, but we'll see. They've also managed to get Chad Pennington back. -- Antrel Rolle will be swapping red for blue this season as he trades his Cardinals jersey for a Giants one. The deal is reportedly worth $37-38 million dollars, with $15 million guaranteed. Probably one of the better swoops I've heard of in this free agency, especially with the Giants secondary the way it is. For overall value, this one will take some beating. -- Beaten. Ok so it's not a free agent move, but still, Anquan Boldin has been traded to the Ravens, along with a 5th round pick in this years draft in exchange for the Ravens 3rd and 4th picks. This deal basically satisfies everyone. The Card's already have three good receivers (Fitzgerald, Breaston, Doucet,) and have made some room for future cap considerations. They also get two picks that are pretty valuable, allowing you to take a pretty good player but without the huge expense associated with it. Boldin gets his new contract that he wanted. And finally, the Ravens get someone who can actually catch the ball and do something with it. Smiles all round. -- CB Dunta Robinson has ended up in Atlanta. This a move many expected the Falcons to make and hopefully it will give their secondary the kick up the butt it needs. Robinson plays with good physicality, but questions over his pass defense (and bearing in mind he's a Cornerback) could come back to haunt the Falcons this year. -- DE Kyle Vanden Bosch and WR Nate Burleson have both hooked in by Detroit. With the distinct possibility that the Lions might grab either Ndamukung Suh or Gerald McCoy with their second overall pick in this draft, that's a great steal for the Lions to get Bosch. With big pressure up the middle, that gives him more opportunities to sneak off the edge and be a difference maker. And while Burleson may not be up to the standard of Calvin Johnson, he does make a pretty good number two. Surprised that anyone would take Burleson though when Antonio Bryant is still on the market. Overall though, good moves by the Lions. -- Gary Brackett, LB for the Colts has signed with... the Colts. Brackett is the brains of this D (in a sense) and his retention is worth the money for Indy. -- Restricted free agent Leonard Weaver has agreed a new deal with the Eagles. His threat in both the running and passing game is much under rated. Now if only we could convince Andy Reid that running the ball isn't a sin.... -- Though nowhere near a done deal, the Seahawks are interested in WR Brandon Marshal. Marshal is a restricted free agent carrying a 1st round tender. If the Seahawks want him, they will have to up a first round pick for the deal. And to be honest, with their receiving corps, that's not a bad deal. Hopefully either tomorrow or Sunday, in addition to keeping up with all the latest buzz in free agency, I want to delve into a topic that's always interested me; Just why is it so hard to repeat a Superbowl win?

Why I don't hate the Panthers any more

-- The Washington Redskins have the finances to make big splashes in free agency, but first you need to open some room in the future cap limit (which will undoubtedly appear in 2011/2012). The Redskins solved this problem by cutting 10 players, including RB LaDell Betts, who I think has potential somewhere. He may indeed be 30 years old, but he's been sitting behind Clinton Portis of late and so hasn't taken the battering some RB of his age have. With the injury to Portis last year we saw Betts step into the starting roll and I think he did well. There's still something left in the tank for him and he'll be a cheap pick up. -- Antrel Rolle has been released by the Cardinals, meaning any team, including those in the final 8 of this years draft can go after him. He's one of the more youthful unrestricted guys about this year and he has great skills (in my opinion at least). A team like the Eagles could use him to fill the gap left by the departure of Brian Dawkins last year. -- According to the crew of NFL Total Access, (now) former Steelers RB, Willie Parker is not generating much interest among potential suitors. The theory is that he was known for being fast and has now lost a step which makes him worth nothing more than a backup role. Apparently there isn't much support for him, either around the league or, and I quote, "in the blogging community". All I can say is, right here baby. I think Willie has something left to give and if he takes the slight about his speed to heart and uses it as a motivational tool, I think he becomes a pleasant surprise for someone next year. -- Larry Johnson is being heralded as a potentially good pickup by just about everyone you ask. I look at Johnson and think "you sucked for the Chiefs, and you only got a bit better when you went to the Bengals with their superb rushing O-line,". Of course I'd very much like for Larry to prove me wrong, but I don't think it will happen. -- Jake Delhomme has been dumped by the Panthers. I hereby officially renounce my hatred of the Panthers and hope that they will finally push DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart to the center stage of their offense, as I believe they should. -- The breaking news making the rounds at the minute appears to be that the Chargers have agreed a trade with the Jets for CB Antonio Cromartie. Early sources suggest it could be for a third round pick in 2011, with the possibility it will become a second rounder based on Cromarties performance. That is an incredible steal. Cromartie is still pretty young and has a lot of potential to be a great corner in the league. The lingering question is his physicality and whether he can bring the goods in the run game. Jets Head Coach Rex Ryan should be able to fix that....

Freedom!!

So starting this Friday, free agency is upon us! There are ton of free agents available and in no particular order, I'd like to look at some of the more noteworthy Unrestricted Free Agents (who are free to sign with anyone, with no compensation given to the players former team). -- Julius Peppers, DE: I guess we had to start here didn't we. 10.5 sacks, 5 forced fumbles, 2 interceptions, and 42 combined tackles (assists and solo). Not bad, but the pay demands are gonna be high. Repeated applications of the Franchise tag means Peppers has got used to good pay and will want a similar deal elsewhere. Ideally he wants to be a 3-4 outside linebacker, but I guess beggars cant be choosers. Many people are pointing at New England, but I'm not sure if Belichick will be happy with the big salary needed to lure him in. Philadelphia could do with Peppers to boost a slightly anaemic defense. -- Karlos Dansby, LB: Dansby seems to think he's in for a big payday, but he didn't clock anywhere near as many tackles as some of the top LB did last year. Yes, he's probably one of the better free agents on the market, but that says more about the market than it does about Dansby. I think teams might over reach for this guy, who will be good without being spectacular. Now that sounds more like the kind of guy Belichick would go for. -- Darren Sharper, FS: Let's be absolutely clear about this. Sharpers numbers from last year are not, I repeat not the norm for him. He had a stand out year statistically, but I want to make something really clear here. The Saints were facing a number of poor teams due to their poor finish in the NFC South the previous year. Out of Sharpers' 9 picks, 7 came against inexperienced QB (Chad Henne, Mark Sanchez & Matthew Stafford who provided two each, Josh Freeman, Chris Redman) (Redman counts due to being a career backup). Sharper is not going to travel somewhere else and produce the same numbers. Pick him up at your peril is my message. -- Gary Brackett, LB: More valuable to the Colts than anyone else I think. Brings experience, but not a lot of game compared to many LB already out there on teams rosters. The price would be too high I feel. Maybe gets taken by a team lacking depth. -- Antonio Bryant, WR: Not a huge amount of buzz round him right now, but when I watch him I see fantastic receiving skills and some good runs after the catch. I think Bryant is going to surprise a lot of people next season if he ends up somewhere with a decent QB, such as Houston. -- Antonio Pierce, LB: There are questions about his health, but if it all checks out, Pierce is a great find. I think his ability to read and diagnose plays is well known and he brings great leadership from the Mike LB spot to any defense. -- Thomas Jones, RB: A lot of people are giving Jones no credit for his achievements. Yes he was on a run heavy team and yes his O-line was good, but his explosion through the hole was still a pretty sight to watch. Not sure what his salary demands will be, but there's still a lot of 'go' left in this guy. -- Chester Taylor, RB: He may be 30-years old, but being a backup to Adrian Peterson has shielded him from a lot of harm. He is a versatile player who brings a lot of goods to the table. Someone is about to get a free agent bargain. -- Darren Sproles, RB: Not entirely sure whether he is unrestricted, but I'm reliably informed he is. If so, Sproles will find a home easily. He's fast, can catch, plays very well on special teams and has developed a technique for effective blocking in the passing game. All around a very solid back. -- LaDanian Tomlinson, RB: The question is this; can he still give you the goods between the tackles and at the LOS? I believe so. My big bug this week (other than the NFL networks choice of camera angles and cameramen at the Combine) has been people saying that LT doesn't have it any more because his numbers have dropped. In response I would simply say, look at the Chargers O-line. They couldn't open a running lane for Chris Johnson. When LT moves he will hopefully end up somewhere a little more run friendly and I think he will produce the goods. -- Kevin Faulk, RB: A solid back for New England, there's life left in the old dog yet. The thing that surprised me most last year was how well he ran behind a pass first O-line and how solid he looked at times in short yardage play. The Patriots haven't been a run heavy team for a long time, so despite his age, Faulk is still in pretty good shape. -- Brian Westbrook, RB: Versatile back, but maybe too many questions about his health. He's contributed a lot in both the passing and running game for the Eagles, but not really enough combined or individually to really make him an attractive prospect. -- Willie Parker, RB: So maybe he's not quite 'fast' Willie Parker anymore, but he still has some gas left in the tank I feel. He's 29, but his injury last year means he had a lot of time out of the firing line. I think he might have a point to prove after losing his starting job to Mendenhall. Keep an eye on this one. -- Kevin Mawae, C: The Titans veteran O-linemen is likely to end up going back to his original team, maybe as a backup, but I'd be interested in him if I was a coach. With his solid off-field reputation combined with his veteran years, he is a good role model and motivator for any under achieving side, as well as being a savvy linemen in his own right. -- Ben Watson, TE: More of a pass catcher than a run blocker, but a lot of teams need a TE and Watson will certainly bring value no matter where he ends up. -- Kyle Vanden Bosch, DE: Minus Albert Haynesworth, the Titans Defense was in trouble. Vanden Bosch is still a very capable player, but teams knew that and could focus more attention on him. Get him on a team where there are other threats on the line, where the pocket can be squeezed a little more, and he'll have success. -- Aaron Kampman, DE: Was just getting the hang of playing in a 3-4 when he went down injured. I think Kampman can make the transition still to OLB, but I think he'd be happier and therefore probably more productive if he could his hand in the turf again in a 4-3 scheme. -- Terrell Owens, WR: With a good QB I think he can still roll, but it remains to be seen where he ends up. Don't expect miracles if he arrives in Cleveland for example. -- Joey Porter, LB: Hmm. 32 years old now. It depends on the contract. For a veteran minimum, I think he's worth a shot. Well, that about wraps that one up. We still have to wait a few days before we see free agency open, but when it does, I think it might prove more interesting than people think. Just remember that in this uncapped year, the top eight teams are quite restricted as to their dealings in free agency. I also think that outside of the first and second round, this years draft probably wont amount to much, so look for the worse off teams to going shopping.