Tuesday, December 08, 2009

Week 13 recap

It's Monday night, it's time for a recap of Week 13: Eagles 34 @ Falcons 7 -- Michael Vick returned to Atlanta and scooped his first touchdown since joining the Eagles. Now I'm not sure where he'll end up after next years transfer carousel has stopped, but whoever gets him is gonna have a fine year. He starting to click now inside that offense and show flashes of the old Vick. Of course it helps when you're surrounded by talent like the Eagles have. Unfortunately for the Falcons meanwhile, they have a ton of talent but no decent QB to find it as Matt Ryan is still out. Jerious Norwood and Jason Snelling are not bad RBs, but they have little chance to shine when you're throwing 44 times a game. This is why teams lose games 34-7. Buccaneers 6 @ Panthers 16 -- My god, the Panthers actually came through!!! I nearly had a heart attack when I looked at the final score. Matt Moore still managed to throw a pick on his limited 20 throws, but the Panthers came up trumps as Jonathan Stewart stepped into the breech for the injured DeAngelo Williams and reminded everyone he's still an excellent back. Of course, the fact that Josh Freeman threw 5 picks, 3 in and around the endzone kinda helped as well. What makes it more surprising is the fact that he threw 44 passes against a good pass defense while the limited carries of the running backs (23) produced 124 yards against a bad rush defense. Some coaches are their own worst enemies. Rams 9 @ Bears 17 -- Jay Cutler. 17 throws, one TD, 0 picks. Matt Forte. 24 carries, 91 yards, 1 TD. This is Bears football, well at least it's getting there. Steven Jackson of the Rams carried 28 times but was largely kept in check by the Bears. All in all, a woeful game of football. Lions 13 @ Bengals 23 -- Cedric Benson is back. 36 carries, 110 yards. Why, for the love of god, would you give your prize back 36 carries against one of the worst teams in the league, when you have two good back ups to spell for him, and knowing that your place in the playoffs is close to being guaranteed? The Bengals already seem determined to take themselves out of contention for the Superbowl. Titans 17 @ Colts 27 -- Well, that's the Titans done for the year. Now please explain something to me, if you know, because I can't understand this. As a Head Coach you know that throwing the ball 40 times a game with Kerry Collins was a big part of what was killing you. When Vince Young came in, he threw the ball occasionally, held onto it, ran a few times, and let the clock run down while letting Chris Johnson batter teams senseless. So why in the hell would you come back and throw 43 passes? Of which nearly half were incomplete. Chris Johnson got 27 carries, but what happened to Vince just getting 4. Or LenDale White getting 2? Do people actually remember that White was a big factor in the Titans rushing attack last year? This kind of stuff annoys the hell out of me. Meanwhile Peyton Manning continues to make good defenses look average. Texans 18 @ Jaguars 23 -- The Jags came out and got their run/pass balance just about perfect. The Texans came out and had three different players throw interceptions. That pretty much sums it up. Also loving the way that Rashad Jennings only gets 2 carries per game. At a guess I'd say there is something in his contract that would pay him a bonus if he gets more than x carries per game/season. That's the only thing I can think of. Broncos 44 @ Chiefs 13 -- The Broncos stuffed the Chiefs with almost 250 yards on the ground. I like it. The Chiefs on the other hand came out and played, like the Chiefs. Which explains why they got beaten so badly. Patriots 21 @ Dolphins 22 -- HA!! Bill Belichick went for it on fourth down again with a field goal the better option, and surprise, surprise, it came back to bite him in the butt. It's like he is determined to prove that his decision was right. And this is what I love about all the stats people who backed Belichick last time. If the stats are so reliable then the Pats should have made at least one of these two big fourth downs. But instead they've made neither. Proof that football is not poker and there is more to play calling than knowing percentages. This percentages folly has now cost the Pats two huge games. I hope Bill and the game theory lovers are happy. And could someone please explain what the hell Chad Henne is doing throwing 52 passes? Raiders 27 @ Steelers 24 -- Holy Bruce Gradkowski Batman!!! 20/33, 308 yards and 3 TDs. For the Raiders, that practically makes you Johnny Unitas. But what is more chilling is to see the Steelers chucking the ball like they were the Patriots. They have an awesome ground game and their QB has recently suffered a concussion. Now bearing in mind that the Raiders rush defense is hardly like.... say, the Steelers, why not just stuff it down their throat? People keep criticising the Steelers D but they are actually still playing pretty good. Lay off the D, question the O. And well done the Raiders. Saints 33 @ Redskins 30 -- For once, divine intervention was on my side. Not once, not twice, not even three, nor four times... but fully five times the gods of football swooped to try and save my pick. More to the point, they swooped to save the Saints. A muffed punt return, an interception in the endzone that was then stripped and returned for a TD, a missed field goal from 23 yards, an interception in the dying seconds and then a fumble in overtime. Everyone in the entire USA is over flowing with plaudits and praise for the New Orleans Saints, supposedly tied with the Colts for the title of best team in football. What no-one is saying (and everyone seems to be conveniently over looking) is "how in the world did the Saints escape with that one?". The Redskins rank as one of the worst offenses in football right now, yet somehow the much vaunted Saints D gave up 30 points to them. And man, the list of miscues on the Redskins side of the ball that lead to the Saints win is pretty hard to cover up. If I was Redskins top man Jim Zorn I'd be feeling a mixture of anger and disbelief after that one. The Redskins had the "best team in the NFC" beat fair and square, and some how they threw it away. Just like the Dolphins did earlier in the season. When the Saints finally lose, I can't wait to hear the crying. Chargers 30 @ Browns 23 -- By all accounts, this was no where near as close as the final scoreline. Still, nod to Brady Quinn for throwing 3 TDs and no INTs, didn't think he had it in him. But they still threw 45 passes compared to 22 rushes (including QB scrambles). Compare that to the Chargers who threw 25 passes versus 28 rushes (including QB scrambles) and completed 18 for 373 yards and 2 TDs while LT punched in another on the ground. The thing about the Chargers is they grind you out and take measured shots when they know they can get a good gain. Their recent record speaks for itself. Cowboys 24 @ Giants 31 -- Nick Folk missed two field goals for the Cowboys, costing them six points. But they still would have lost by 1. Make no mistake, the Romo friendly offense is to blame. 41/55 (which is pretty damn good), 392 yards and 3 TDs. That's great, but it also means you're stuck in a potential shootout. The Cowboys have the rushing attack to take down a team like the Giants, but they simply refuse to use it. Subsequently, they give teams plenty of time and chances to beat them, which is exactly what happened. Giving up a 79 yard punt return didn't help either..... 49ers 17 @ Seahawks 20 -- Explain the logic; you have Frank Gore, a pro bowl caliber running back, and you only give him 9 carries. Even the Seahawks aren't that stupid. Gotta love the way as well that a blatant pass interference in the end zone went un called. If that had been Indy or New Orleans, the end zone would have turned yellow with flags. Vikings 17 @ Cardinals 30 -- Watching the game, four things stood out above all. First, the Vikings lack of a deep threat until about the 4th quarter. Every pass seemed to be headed out toward the flats or the 10 yard outs. No doubt this contributed to allowing the Cards to play shorter in their zones and stuff Peterson. Not that Peterson was given a chance mind. A paltry 13 carries. Yes the Cards were doing well against the run, but largely because the Vikings tried to use wide rushes that appeared to take an age to develop. It was remarkable to see a key weapon so under utilised. Not like the Cards mind, who appreciate that Warner is still their best choice. And a large part of that is his willingness to throw to Fitzgerald and Boldin, his two best receivers, who caught 15 of the 22 completions for a combined 241 yards and 3 TDs. 5 other players caught a single pass and another caught 2. The Cards put the ball in the hands of their best guys and lit it rip. Which is akin to what their D-line did. By any standard, the Cardinals front line are undersized. But they have great speed, technique and determination, which allowed them to register 3 sacks and get wide on the outside runs. They put in a sterling evenings work and were worthy winners. The Cards looked as dangerous in this game as they did during the playoffs last year, and that's where they'll be headed again if they secure a win next week. Ravens 14 @ Packers 27 -- 'Air Flacco' continues to experience turbulence on Monday Night Football. Just 15/36, for a paltry 137 yards, 1 TD and 3 INTs. Ray Rice.... just 14 carries. The Ravens made the playoffs, going all the way to the AFC championship game, last year by running the ball, eating the clock, taking controlled chances in the passing game and playing tough on defense. This year they've become just the latest victim of the pass happy NFL. Meanwhile the Packers continue to improve, giving up just the one sack on offense while piling up 3 on defense, 3 interceptions and a forced fumble. Not bad at all. So that's my picks done for the week and I finished 10-6 again. Seem to have a thing about only picking 10 winners. And for a change this week, the Panthers, Dolphins and Saints all did me a favour. Somethings wrong, I can feel it. That now means that my overall tally since week 7 is now: 67-36. Not bad. Not great either. Still, look on the bright side, tomorrow is Extra Credit time.

2 comments:

Eeborg Escovar said...

Thanks for exposing game theory for the joke that it is. Your excellent reasoning gave me the idea to flip a coin twice. It came up tails both times! This proves that it's not an even money bet. I just took $10,000 out of my IRA and am looking for some sucker willing to bet heads. Thanks again. I owe you.

Chris said...

Hmmm, I sense a hint of sarcasm in your respone.

My point is that while Game theory may emminently apply to the tossing of a coin, where the choices are limited and the variables known and relatively easy to control, it's not quite so simple in football.

The other thing that tends to crop up in football is the risk/reward ratio of the choice. What if I said to you, "Lets flip a coin. Heads I give you $100, tails, you give me $10,000" In this deal, in order for you to make a long term profit you would have to win 100 times for every time that I won.

So it goes with football. You have a choice on fourth. Kick and score or go for it and get nothing.